@article {bnh-8329, title = {Analysis and characterisation of bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events from the 2019-20 fire season - Black Summer final report}, number = {683}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of this project was stated in the Research Services Agreement as: {\textquotedblleft}to develop a novel dataset that will capture information about individual bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events. The initial focus will be on those interactions that occurred during the 2019/20 fire season.{\textquotedblright} In other words, the project was to design a database that will allow evaluation of prescribed burns from planning stages to ultimate outcomes, and start using the data for some cases. In this report, we begin by outlining this dataset and its sources of information, though we have not populated it. Instead, we list potential evaluations that could be done with and conduct two evaluations with components of the data.

The core of the proposed fire-meets-fire dataset is matched reporting from the Burn Plan (before) and Burn Report (on completion), especially area, fuel, moisture and weather variables. Some of this is not routinely reported in the current Elements System (for example 21\% of burns had no actual area burnt recorded and most burns were missing fuel information). The dataset should also ingest information from fire severity mapping (which is now routine) and smoke impact. If the burn meets a bushfire a new range of information is available and should be ingested, including the severity of the bushfire within the burn. The advantage that the burn gave to firefighters is hard to gauge simply from fire severity, so additional information is needed, most importantly from firefighter interviews, but also by more detailed GIS examination of bushfire behavior.

There are many evaluations that could be done with this dataset, from simple metrics such as percent of planned area actually burnt, to refinement of weather prescriptions for burns to whole-of-program evaluations applied to all burns such as the severity analysis presented here.

Sections 3 and 4 are examples of whole of program evaluations. Section 4 is an analysis of severity reduction in the 2019/20 bushfires relating the occurrence of high severity fire in ~100,000 points to the fire history at those points, and controlling for vegetation, weather and topography. This found that in dry sclerophyll, recent burning (up to ~five years) reduced the probability of high severity fire and even more so if that previous burn was at low severity.

Section 4 uses visual interpretation of the 2019/20 bushfire severity and progression mapping to attribute each previous prescribed burn with its effect on the bushfire. This ranged from stopping the bushfire altogether (having a common boundary) to simple severity reduction (was the bushfire severity reduced in the burn?). We found that 30\% of burns from 2014 were encountered by the bushfires. Of these 509 burns, 13\% of them were aligned with the final fire boundary, 42\% of recent burns (one or two years old) caused some unburnt patches within the burn, and 68\% caused a severity reduction. Burns older than this had much less effect, and we found two cases where a burn left an unburnt shadow behind it (meaning shadows are very rare events). We were able to cross-reference our interpretation for 14 burns to interviews from another pilot project. This revealed broad agreement, but also highlighted several cases where a burn gave firefighters an advantage that could not be found in the GIS. Three of these were cases where the bushfire slowed down (sometimes for several days), allowing firefighters time to prepare. There were two cases where burns outside of the burn perimeter effectively reduced spotting activity.

The project demonstrates what can be done to evaluate prescribed burning programs and that a wide range of data is required to do this thoroughly. The 2019/20 bushfire season was extraordinary in many ways. Our analysis suggests that one of these ways was that prescribed burns only reduced fire behavior if they were one or two years old. Analyses of previous seasons generally find a longer lasting effect. Even so, there were many instances where prescribed burns helped firefighters, including in ways that are not obvious in GIS analyses.

}, keywords = {2019-20, analysis, black summer, Bushfire, characterisation, prescribed burn}, issn = {683}, author = {Owen Price and James Barker and Simin Rahmani and Wilkinson, Carrie and Donald MacDonald} } @article {bnh-7980, title = {Black Summer - how the NSW community responded to the 2019-20 bushfire season}, number = {651}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, pages = {130}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2019-20 bushfire season saw unprecedented, destructive bushfires across New South Wales (NSW). After an early start to the fire season in August 2019, fires spread south from the Queensland border to the Victorian border over the course of spring and summer. Tens of thousands of people were displaced by the fires, including residents, tourists and visitors to affected areas. Significant rainfall in early February 2020 helped contain the fires by February 13 and brought an end to the most deadly and destructive fire season in NSW history. Tragically, 26 people lost their lives in the fires, including four NSW RFS volunteers and three US aerial firefighters. Many more people were affected by smoke, including in regional areas and major population centres such as the north coast, Sydney, Canberra, Newcastle and Wollongong. By season{\textquoteright}s end, fires had burned a record 5.5 million hectares of NSW and destroyed 2,448 homes (NSW RFS 2020). Community and commercial buildings and infrastructure were also significantly impacted on. The fires adversely affected many industries, including agriculture, forestry and tourism.

The NSW RFS engaged the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to conduct research into community preparedness, warnings and responses to the 2019-20 NSW bushfires. The NSW RFS identified eight key themes for investigation, including: (i) risk communication; (ii) effect of prolonged and repeated exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iii) effect of previous experience and exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iv) sheltering practices; (v) experiences of tourists and visitors; (vi) awareness and attitudes toward bushfire risk reduction; (vii) building standards; and (viii) community recovery and resilience.

This report presents findings from research into community attitudes and experiences of the 2019-20 bushfire season undertaken for the NSW RFS. The NSW RFS Statement of Work identified the following themes and questions for investigation:

}, keywords = {Bushfire, communication, communities, Community safety, education, Fire, Warnings}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-9-5}, issn = {651}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Wilkinson, Carrie and Matalena Tofa and Tasmin Dilworth and Jessica Collins and Lillian Tait and Stephanie Samson} } @article {bnh-6760, title = {Understanding bushfire risk, warnings and responses: lessons from the 2018 Reedy Swamp fire}, number = {518.2020}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {East Melbourne}, abstract = {

On Sunday 18 March 2018 a bushfire impacted on the communities of Reedy Swamp and Tathra in the Bega Valley Shire on the NSW south coast. The fire, known as the Reedy Swamp Fire, destroyed 65 and damaged 48 homes. 35 caravans and cabins were also destroyed. The fire displaced approximately 700 residents on the day, as well as an unknown number of tourists and visitors to Tathra. Fortunately no human lives were lost.

The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) commissioned the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to undertake research into community preparedness and responses to the Reedy Swamp Fire. The University of Wollongong and Macquarie University were engaged by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to conduct this research.\ \ 

Themes covered in\ this research are community understanding\ of fire risk, planning, preparation, and\ responses during and after the fire.

Key findings centre around the need to\ educate people further about the role that\ embers play in spreading bushfire into built-up\ areas, the dangers of late evacuation,\ providing greater clarity in official warning\ messages and how warnings may not be\ delivered in the event of power or technology\ failure. The study found that many people\ consider bushfire preparation as something\ that is undertaken when directly threatened\ by fire, not well in advance of an active\ threat. Many people within Tathra had not\ hought that a bushfire could impact the\ town, or had not considered the potential\ for fire to penetrate beyond the bush at the\ western edge of town. The research found\ that many of those who left at the last\ moment said they would leave earlier in a\ future bushfire and would be more prepared\ to gather animals and valuable items to take\ with them when they evacuated.

Download the Hazard Note summary of the research findings.

}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-4-0}, issn = {518}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Wilkinson, Carrie and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-3437, title = {Into the firing line: civilian ingress during the 2013 {\textquotedblleft}Red October{\textquotedblright} bushfires, Australia}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {80}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, pages = {521-538}, chapter = {521}, abstract = {

A major issue for bushfire management arises when residents decide to leave a safe area and enter the fire zone to rescue or defend their property, pets, loved ones or other assets. Here, we use statistical and narrative analyses of data from an online survey and semi-structured interviews with residents affected by the 2013 {\textquotedblleft}Red October{\textquotedblright} bushfires in New South Wales, Australia. The survey results revealed that of the 58\ \% of respondents who were not at home at the time the threat became apparent, 65\ \% indicated that they attempted to get home prior to the arrival of the fire front. In doing so, many endangered themselves, their family, friends and emergency services personnel. This paper discusses the shortcomings of bushfire survival plans and official risk communication, which do not cater well for household units that are divided or unattended when a bushfire starts. Findings suggest that to enhance bushfire safety and preparedness, emergency managers should acknowledge and speak more directly to the specific constraints to action for particular social groups at the wildland{\textendash}urban interface, including families with school-age children, commuters and absentee landholders.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-015-1982-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1982-5}, author = {Wilkinson, Carrie and Eriksen, Christine and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-2231, title = {Fire, water and everyday life: Bushfire and household defence in a changing climate}, journal = {Fire Safety}, volume = {78}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, pages = {102-110}, chapter = {102}, abstract = {

This paper examines how the availability or scarcity of water influenced the survival related decisions of households during the October 2013 State Mine Fire in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales, Australia. Narrative analysis of semi-structured interviews with 18 households impacted by the bushfire revealed that drought conditions in the months preceding the bushfire left many households dependent on non-reticulated water supplies vulnerable at the time the fire threat became apparent. Despite considerable preparations for water storage and usage during the fire, {\textquotedblleft}weak links{\textquotedblright} in planning (e.g., top-ups, failure of pumps, generators and hoses) meant water was not accessible when needed most. This paper discusses a gap in bushfire safety scholarship on water usage and everyday trade-offs amongst residents in areas independent of reticulated (mains) water supplies. Findings suggest a need for more detailed and consistent information in official bushfire safety advice on storing water prior to a bushfire and effective water distribution systems for household defence and fire fighting.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.08.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711215300187$\#$articles}, author = {Eriksen, Christine}, editor = {Wilkinson, Carrie} }