@article {bnh-8115, title = {Derivation of a Bayesian fire spread model using large-scale wildfire observations}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, abstract = {

Models that predict wildfire rate of spread (ROS) play an important role in decision-making during firefighting operations, including fire crew placement and timing of community evacuations. Here, we use a large set of remotely sensed wildfire observations, and explanatory data (focusing on weather), to demonstrate a Bayesian probabilistic ROS modelling approach. Our approach has two major advantages: (1) Using actual wildfire observations, instead of controlled fire observations, makes models developed well-suited to wildfire prediction; (2) Bayesian modelling accounts for the complex nature of wildfire spread by explicitly considering uncertainty in the data to produce probabilistic ROS predictions. We show that highly informative probabilistic predictions can be made from a simple Bayesian model containing wind speed, relative humidity and soil moisture. We also compare Bayesian model predictions to those of widely used deterministic ROS models in Australia.

}, keywords = {Wildfire Bushfire Fire behaviour Bayesian Bayesian modelling Rate of Spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105127}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815221001705}, author = {Michael Storey and Bedward, M. and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-7795, title = {Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Spotting is thought to increase wildfire rate of spread (ROS) and in some cases become the main mechanism for spread. The role of spotting in wildfire spread is controlled by many factors including fire intensity, number of and distance between spot fires, weather, fuel characteristics and topography. Through a set of 30 laboratory fire experiments on a 3 m x 4 m fuel bed, subject to air flow, we explored the influence of manually ignited spot fires (0, 1 or 2), the presence or absence of a model hill and their interaction on combined fire ROS (i.e. ROS incorporating main fire and merged spot fires). During experiments conducted on a flat fuel bed, spot fires (whether 1 or 2) had only a small influence on combined ROS. Slowest combined ROS was recorded when a hill was present and no spot fires were ignited, because the fires crept very slowly downslope and downwind of the hill. This was up to, depending on measurement interval, 5 times slower than ROS in the flat fuel bed experiments. However, ignition of 1 or 2 spot fires (with hill present) greatly increased combined ROS to similar levels as those recorded in the flat fuel bed experiments (depending on spread interval). The effect was strongest on the head fire, where spot fires merged directly with the main fire, but significant increases in off-centre ROS were also detected. Our findings suggest that under certain topographic conditions, spot fires can allow a fire to overcome the low spread potential of downslopes. Current models may underestimate wildfire ROS and fire arrival time in hilly terrain if the influence of spot fires on ROS is not incorporated into predictions.

}, keywords = {air flow, analysis of variance, Bushfire, combustion, fire research, fire suppression technology, fuels, rotors}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and M. Almeida and Carlos Ribeiro and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6874, title = {Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Spotting during wildfires can significantly influence the way wildfires spread and reduce the chances of successful containment by fire crews. However, there is little published empirical evidence of the phenomenon. In this study, we have analysed spotting patterns observed from 251 wildfires from a database of over 8000 aerial line scan images capturing active wildfire across mainland southeast Australia between 2002 and 2018. The images were used to measure spot fire numbers, number of {\textquotedblleft}long-distance{\textquotedblright} spot fires (\> 500 m), and maximum spotting distance. We describe three types of spotting distance distributions, compare patterns among different regions of southeast Australia, and associate these with broad measures of rainfall, elevation, and fuel type. We found a relatively high correlation between spotting distance and numbers; however, there were also several cases of wildfires with low spot fire numbers producing very long-distance spot fires. Most long-distance spotting was associated with a {\textquotedblleft}multi-modal{\textquotedblright} distribution type, where high numbers of spot fires ignite close to the source fire and isolated or small clumps of spot fires ignite at longer distances. The multi-modal distribution suggests that current models of spotting distance, which typically follow an exponential-shaped distribution, could underestimate long-distance spotting. We also found considerable regional variation in spotting phenomena that may be associated with significant variation in rainfall, topographic ruggedness, and fuel descriptors. East Victoria was the most spot-fire-prone of the regions, particularly in terms of long-distance spotting.

}, keywords = {spot fire; spotting distance; spotting distribution; wildfire behaviour}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3020010}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/2/10}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-6754, title = {Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. \>500 m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, line scan, spot fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19124}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF19124}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and Jason J. Sharples and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7475, title = {Exploring the key drivers of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests using expert-derived conceptual models}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, pages = {1775{\textendash}1798}, abstract = {

Context

Fire behaviour research has largely focused on dry ecosystems that burn frequently, with far less attention on wetter forests. Yet, the impacts of fire in wet forests can be high and therefore understanding the drivers of fire in these\ systems\ is vital.

Objectives

We sought to identify and rank by importance the factors plausibly driving flammability in wet eucalypt forests, and describe relationships between them. In doing so, we formulated a set of research priorities.

Methods

Conceptual models of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests were elicited from 21 fire experts using a combination of elicitation techniques. Forest flammability was defined using fire occurrence and fireline intensity as measures of ignitability and heat release rate, respectively.

Results

There were shared and divergent opinions about the drivers of flammability in wet eucalypt forests. Widely agreed factors were drought, dead fine fuel moisture content, weather and topography. These factors all influence the availability of biomass to burn, albeit their effects and interactions on various dimensions of flammability are poorly understood. Differences between the models related to lesser understood factors (e.g. live and coarse fuel moisture, plant traits, heatwaves) and the links between factors.

Conclusions

By documenting alternative conceptual models, we made shared and divergent opinions explicit about flammability in wet forests. We identified four priority research areas: (1) quantifying drought and fuel moisture thresholds for fire occurrence and intensity, (2) modelling microclimate in dense vegetation and rugged terrain, (3) determining the attributes of live vegetation that influence forest flammability, (4) evaluating fire management strategies.

}, keywords = {Cognitive mapping, Conceptual models, Expert elicitation, Fire behaviour, fire intensity, flammability, Structured decision-making, Structured expert judgement, Wet forest, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, author = {Jane Cawson and Victoria Hemming and Ackland, A and Wendy R. Anderson and David Bowman and Ross Bradstock and Brown, T and Jamie Burton and Geoffrey J. Cary and Thomas Duff and Alex Filkov and Furlaud, James M. and Tim Gazzard and Kilinc, Musa and Petter Nyman and Ross Peacock and Mike Ryan and Jason J. Sharples and Gary J. Sheridan and Tolhurst, K.G. and Tim Wells and Phil Zylstra and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5654, title = {Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {271}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, chapter = {148-157}, abstract = {

Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions.

}, keywords = {Burn window, Climate change, Fire weather, Global warming, Hazard reduction, Prescribed burning, prescribed fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192319301091}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Bruce Tran and Matthias M. Boer and Owen Price and Belinda Kenny and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5648, title = {Developing and testing models of the drivers of anthropogenic and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {235}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, chapter = {34-41}, abstract = {

Considerable investments are made in managing fire risk to human assets, including a growing use of fire behaviour simulation tools to allocate expenditure. Understanding fire risk requires estimation of the likelihood of ignition, spread of the fire and impact on assets. The ability to estimate and predict risk requires both the development of ignition likelihood models and the evaluation of these models in novel environments. We developed models for natural and anthropogenic ignitions in the south-eastern Australian state of Victoria incorporating variables relating to fire weather, terrain and the built environment. Fire weather conditions had a consistently positive effect on the likelihood of ignition, although they contributed much more to lightning (57\%) and power transmission (55\%) ignitions than the 7 other modelled causes (8{\textendash}32\%). The built environment played an important role in driving anthropogenic ignitions. Housing density was the most important variable in most models and proximity to roads had a consistently positive effect. In contrast, the best model for lightning ignitions included a positive relationship with primary productivity, as represented by annual rainfall. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous ignition modelling studies. The models developed for Victoria were tested in the neighbouring fire prone states of South Australia and Tasmania. The anthropogenic ignition model performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.969) and Tasmania (AUC = 0.848), whereas the natural ignition model only performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.972; Tasmania AUC = 0.612). Model performance may have been impaired by much lower lightning ignition rates in South Australia and Tasmania than in Victoria. This study shows that the spatial likelihood of ignition can be reliably predicted based on readily available meteorological and biophysical data. Furthermore, the strong performance of anthropogenic and natural ignition models in novel environments suggests there are some universal drivers of ignition likelihood across south-eastern Australia.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, ignition, Risk modelling, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.055}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479719300568}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Rebecca Gibson and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5697, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {487}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2018-2019 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}. The project aims to provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the previous Annual Report in 2017-2018. The report focuses on the research outputs informing the development of the Prescribed Fire Atlas. The project has now delivered a rich, layered dataset capable of addressing nuanced questions about the quantitative risk reduction available through prescribed burning for multiple management values in varying landscapes. The project is now entering its final phase as we complete climate change and cost-effectiveness analyses and launch the Prescribed Burning Atlas in 2019/20. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide geographically based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at the heart of the project. Active involvement of end users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end users and the communities they serve.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, ecosystems, fire management, Prescribed burning}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6000, title = {Globe-LFMC, a global plant water status database for vegetation ecophysiology and wildfire applications}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. the primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health.

}, keywords = {database, Emergency management, land management, Natural disasters, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0164-9}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0164-9.epdf?author_access_token=HISJcfE-VovHPab3al2NwNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OARKV_7w7xO9p9PGwHd2zKbrs5f-VkYE5AC2lYTydBxaTKy0JaWSgXKUWz0U-fruuzViNrn1JJFl8mARAjGudmQfIcQsd98fM0zv-fk4bXxA\%3D\%3D}, author = {Marta Yebra and Gianluca Scortechini and Abdulbaset Badi and Maria Eugenia Beget and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock and Emilio Chuvieco and F. Mark Danson and Philip Dennison and Victor Resco de Dios and Carlos M. Di Bella and Greg Forsyth and Philip Frost and Mariano Garcia and Abdelaziz Hamdi and Binbin He and Matt Jolly and Tineke Kraaij and Pillar Martin and Florent Mouillot and Glenn J Newnham and Rachael Nolan and Grazia Pellizzaro and Yi Qi and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Dar Roberts and Momadou Sow and Susan Ustin} } @conference {bnh-6396, title = {A new decision support tool for prescribed burning risk assessment}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In most Australian jurisdictions, the use of prescribed fire is promoted on the basis of its efficacy in mitigation of risk. Despite this, formal attempts to evaluate effects on risk to people, property and environmental values across different jurisdictions are generally lacking. In particular, there is no basis for assessing the generality of attempts to predict risk in response to any particular strategy for use of prescribed fire (e.g. the 5per cent target recommended by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission). General principles therefore need to be developed about how to apply a risk-based approach across widely varying environments, human communities and combinations of key management values.

In this Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project, researchers from the University of Wollongong, Western Sydney University and the University of Melbourne have come together with end users across southern Australia to design a project to systematically investigate how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Project outputs are currently being moulded for utilisation by end users in a dedicated tool, the Prescribed Fire Atlas, which will guide the implementation of {\textquoteleft}tailor-made{\textquoteright} prescribed burning strategies to suit the biophysical, climatic and human context of all bioregions across southern Australia.

}, keywords = {decision support, Fire, perscibed burning, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-5615, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6856, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {414-426}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6109, title = {A Temporal Framework of Large Wildfire Suppression in Practice, a Qualitative Descriptive Study}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, pages = {884}, abstract = {

Suppression activities on large wildfires are complicated. Existing suppression literature does not take into account this complexity which leaves existing suppression models and measures of resource productivity incomplete. A qualitative descriptive analysis was performed on the suppression activities described in operational documents of 10 large wildfires in Victoria, Australia. A five-stage classification system summarises suppression in the everyday terms of wildfire management. Suppression can be heterogeneous across different sectors with different stages occurring across sectors on the same day. The stages and the underlying 20 suppression tasks identified provide a fundamental description of how suppression resources are being used on large wildfires. We estimate that at least 57\% of resource use on our sample of 10 large wildfires falls outside of current suppression modelling and productivity research.

}, keywords = {wildfire; suppression; fire management; resource use}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100884}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/10/884}, author = {Heather Simpson and Ross Bradstock and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-5035, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the 2016-2017 Annual Report. The report focuses on the analysis of fire spread simulations for two case study landscapes: the ACT and Tasmania. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible to investigate prescribed burning effectiveness at risk mitigation across a range of treatment levels, management values and landscapes, by placing them on a common baseline of risk.

}, issn = {421}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-4774, title = {A systematic exploration of the potential for bushfire risk mitigation with prescribed burning}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Fire regimes vary widely across Australian ecosystems as a function of climate, fuel, terrain and ignition variations. Fundamentally such variation will not only shape the way that prescribed burning can reduce risk to human and environmental assets but also the scope for effective treatment. While many agencies are moving toward planning systems based on risk assessment, knowledge of the best way to use prescribed fire to reduce risk to key values is generally lacking. The BNHCRC Project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for prescribed burning{\textquotedblright}, combines simulation and empirical approaches to improve our understanding of how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Here, we present the modelling framework and key results for two landscapes, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. We run a large number of simulations using the PHOENIX RapidFire model, investigating the interaction between fuel treatment and location under various weather scenarios. Key outputs for risk assessment include area burnt, house loss, life loss, roads and powerlines damaged, environmental cost and economic cost. Across both case study landscapes, greater levels of prescribed burning tend to result in reduced wildfire impacts on all risks. However, there is considerable variation in the rate of reduction in risk, including the amount of treatment required to achieve key targets. Further, the particular combination of weather factors underpinning given fire weather conditions (e.g. temperature vs wind driven) can substantially impact the overall level of risk, as well as the response to prescribed burning.\ 

}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-4203, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation - systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {310}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2016-2017 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems. By undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across southern Australia, the project will provide critical support to agency decision makers across the region.

This report describes the project goals, methods and activities since the 2015-2016 Annual Report. The report focuses on initial results from a key project component: fire spread simulations in a range of case study landscapes throughout southern Australia. Results are presented in detail for case studies in East Central Victoria, Adelaide, the ACT and Hobart. This initial suite of simulations provides good evidence that there is substantial variation between case study landscapes in the response of key risks to different rates of prescribed burning. Further simulations in combination with other project methodologies will provide further evidence about this critical issue.

The report also details progress on data acquisition, empirical analyses and stakeholder engagement, which form the other key activities of the project to date. Finally, we are graetful to Naomi Stephens and Felipe Aires, our End User representatives from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, for providing an insight into the project{\textquoteright}s progress from a stakeholder perspective.

}, issn = {310}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2919, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {170}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2015-2016 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems. By undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across southern Australia, the project will provide critical support to agency decision makers across the region.\ This report describes the project goals, methods and activities since its commencement in July 2015. Naomi Stephens, our End User representative from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, provides an insight into the project{\textquoteright}s progress from a stakeholder perspective.

}, issn = {170}, author = {Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2532, title = {Predicting dead fine fuel moisture at regional scales using vapour pressure deficit from MODIS and gridded weather data}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {174}, year = {2016}, month = {03/2016}, chapter = {100}, abstract = {

Spatially explicit predictions of fuel moisture content are crucial for quantifying fire danger indices and as inputs to fire behaviour models. Remotely sensed predictions of fuel moisture have typically focused on live fuels; but regional estimates of dead fuel moisture have been less common. Here we develop and test the spatial application of a recently developed dead fuel moisture model, which is based on the exponential decline of fine fuel moisture with increasing vapour pressure deficit (D). We first compare the performance of two existing approaches to predict\ D\ from satellite observations. We then use remotely sensed\ D, as well as\ D\ estimated from gridded daily weather observations, to predict dead fuel moisture. We calibrate and test the model at a woodland site in South East Australia, and then test the model at a range of sites in South East Australia and Southern California that vary in vegetation type, mean annual precipitation (129{\textendash}1404\ mm\ year-\ 1) and leaf area index (0.1{\textendash}5.7). We found that\ D\ modelled from remotely sensed land surface temperature performed slightly better than a model which also included total precipitable water (MAE\ \<\ 1.16\ kPa and 1.62\ kPa respectively).\ Dcalculated with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite was under-predicted in areas with low leaf area index. Both\ D\ from remotely sensed data and gridded weather station data were good predictors of the moisture content of dead suspended fuels at validation sites, with mean absolute errors less than 3.9\% and 6.0\% respectively. The occurrence of data gaps in remotely sensed time series presents an obstacle to this approach, and assimilated or extrapolated meteorological observations may offer better continuity.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425715302315}, author = {Rachael Nolan and Victor Resco de Dios and Matthias M. Boer and Gabriele Caccamo and Michael L Goulden and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-3410, title = {Resolving future fire management conflicts using multi-criteria decision making}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {30}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, pages = {196-205}, chapter = {196}, abstract = {

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland{\textendash}urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.

}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12580}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12580/abstract}, author = {Don A. Driscoll and Michael Bode and Ross Bradstock and David A. Keith and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-3432, title = {Biogeographical variation in the potential effectiveness of prescribed fire in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {42}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, pages = {2234-2245}, chapter = {2234}, abstract = {

Aim

Prescribed fire is a common land management for reducing risks from unplanned fires. However, the universality of such effectiveness remains uncertain due to biogeographical variation in fuel types, climatic influences and fire regimes. Here, we explore biogeographical patterns in the effectiveness of prescribed fire by calculating leverage (the reduction in unplanned area burnt resulting from recent previous area burnt) across south-eastern Australia over a 25\ year period.

Location

The 30 bioregions of south-eastern Australia.

Methods

We quantified leverage in each bioregion from fire records from 1975{\textendash}2009, controlling for variation in annual weather. We also identified potential drivers of variation in leverage by relating the bioregional leverage values to measures of fuel type and growth, climate, and weather extremes.

Results

Leverage was inferred in four bioregions while in the other 26 bioregions no leverage was detected or prescribed fire had the opposite effect (fire-follows-fire). Leverage occurred in the forested eastern section of the study area, where rainfall, fuel load and fire activity is high and fire weather is mild. In all bioregions, weather was a stronger predictor than past-fire extent of area burnt in a particular year.

Main conclusions

Our analysis of leverage shows that the effectiveness of prescribed fire varies regionally in predictable ways, which means that fuel management strategies applied in one region are not necessarily applicable in another. In most bioregions prescribed burning is likely to have very little effect on subsequent extent of unplanned fire, and even in regions where leverage occurs, large areas of treatment are required to substantially reduce the area burned by unplanned fire.

}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.12579}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12579/abstract}, author = {Owen Price and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Hamish Clarke} } @article {bnh-2396, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems}, year = {2015}, author = {Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2241, title = {National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year three report}, number = {116}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of the Probabilistic Framework Project is to develop a new consequence-based fire danger rating system able to integrate a wide range of variables and link their complex interactions to the probability of property loss. The project aims at delivering a spatially-explicit framework capable of generating daily maps representing the distribution of the probability of property loss at 5km spatial resolution.

In year two, a {\textquotedblleft}consequence-based{\textquotedblright} system (developed in Year 1) was refined and applied in two case study regions: the Sydney Basin, and the Victorian East Central Risk Landscape. The BN framework was successfully integrated with GIS facilities to generate spatially explicit predictions of the probability of a fire spreading to and reaching the urban interface and then burning there at high intensity (\>4000kWm-1, hereafter unsuppressible fires). Overall, the model indicated that the highest risk areas may potentially be identified by accounting for not only fire weather, but also fuels, the distribution of property, plus features inherent in the landscape that influenced fire spread.

The objective for the third stage of the project was to develop and test an operational application of the daily fire danger rating Bayesian Network model for two case study areas - Sydney Basin and the East Central Risk Landscape in Victoria. In this report, we present the results of the operational application of the model, quantify sensitivities of the model and finally we make recommendations for the future of the modelling approach.
We developed a prototype Fire Danger Rating (FDR) website for updating fire risk in real-time (30-60 seconds per case study). Maps are generated through use of landscape data and additional daily 3pm weather data downloaded from the Bureau of Meteorology. Across the 2014/15 season spatial variation was seen between the predictions from the FDR and that of FFDI. It is important to note that these variations exist despite the fact FFDI is an input into the model influencing ignition probability, fire spread and fire intensity. One of the main reasons for these differences is that FFDI only accounts for weather and does not consider topography, fuels, spatial arrangement of assets or the directionality of the wind.

The sensitivity analysis suggested that the model is performing well relative to expectations. Logical relationships and coarse scale patterns are holding true. The results indicate strong reliance on the empirical analysis of ignition probabilities in the landscape. FFDI was found to be the input node that required the greatest accuracy.

A number of recommendations were made by state agencies during an end of study review of the project. These included expanding the FDR website to new landscapes, with particular interest in assessing the model for grassland environments. In addition, the group thought the model had considerable capacity for longer term planning of fuel treatments, accounting for changing human patterns and future climates.

Overall, the project has succeeded in delivering a spatially-explicit framework capable of generating daily maps representing the distribution of the probability of property loss at 5km spatial resolution.

}, issn = {116}, author = {Trent Penman and Parkins, K.A. and Mascaro, S. and Chong, Derek and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-3845, title = {Reducing the risk of house loss due to wildfires}, journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, volume = {67}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {12-25}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Wildfires will continue to reach people and property regardless of management effort in the landscape. House-based strategies are therefore required to complement the landscape strategies in order to reduce the extent of house loss. Here we use a Bayesian Network approach to quantify the relative influence of preventative and suppressive management strategies on the probability of house loss in Australia. Community education had a limited effect on the extent to which residents prepared their property hence a limited effect on the reduction in risk of house loss, however hypothetically improving property preparedness did reduce the risk of house loss. Increasing expenditure on suppression resources resulted in a greater reduction in the risk of loss than preparedness. This increase had an interaction effect with increasing the distance between vegetation and the houses. The extent to which any one action can be implemented is limited by social, environmental and economic factors.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815214003776?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Trent Penman and Ann E. Nicholson and Ross Bradstock and Luke Collins and Sandra H. Penman and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-1842, title = {Trends in evapotranspiration and streamflow following wildfire in resprouting eucalypt forests}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {524}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {614-624}, chapter = {614}, abstract = {

The objective of this study was to estimate the recovery trajectory of evapotranspiration (Et) and streamflow (Q) in resprouting forested catchments following wildfire. Recovery dynamics were assessed in mixed species eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia which recover from disturbance largely via vegetative resprouting, and to a lesser degree, via seedling recruitment. Changes in\ Et\ were evaluated in two ways. Firstly, we developed semi-empirical models of post-fire\ Et\ following moderate and high severity wildfire. These models were based on datasets of plot-scale\ Et, measured within five years post-fire, and published literature on post-fire changes in vegetation structure. Secondly, we analysed long-term\ Qrecords (25\ years) from a mixed species catchment, including a 1{\textendash}5\ year period following a predominately moderate severity wildfire. We found that the overall length of recovery time for\ Et\ and\ Q\ following wildfire was 8{\textendash}12\ years, which is much less than for eucalypt forests recovering via seedlings only. This emphasises the importance of functional responses to fire in forest ecosystems as a key driver of the hydrologic resilience of catchments, with resprouting forest types conferring relatively rapid recovery following disturbance. We also found that the recovery trajectory of post-fire\ Et\ was dependent on fire severity. Increased\ Et\ and consequent declines in\ Q\ occurred following moderate severity fire. In contrast, there was no evidence of increased\ Et\ following high severity fire. Based on patterns of long-term\ Q\ and rainfall observed in a small mixed species catchment, declines in\ Q\ due to increased\ Et\ following moderate severity wildfire were of similar magnitude to\ Q\ declines driven by a drought that coincided with the fire. We conclude that the coincidence of wildfire with drought exacerbates reductions in\ Q\ under moderate severity fire, resulting in greater\ Q\ declines. This is due to the enhanced rates of\ Et, primarily driven by regenerating seedlings and higher rates of transpiration from surviving trees.

}, keywords = {Water balance; Streamflow elasticity; Resilience; Disturbance; Fire severity}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.045}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415001572}, author = {Rachael Nolan and Lane, Patrick N. J. and Richard G. Benyon and Ross Bradstock and Patrick J. Mitchell} } @article {bnh-1360, title = {National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year two report}, number = {008}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings in Australia currently rely heavily on McArthur{\textquoteright}s indices for forests and grasslands. Advances in fire and in meteorological science means that these indices do not adequately reflect current knowledge or recent technological advances. We now have the capability to provide information on fire danger at a much greater spatial and temporal resolution than previously, but do not fully utilise it. The indices are used for a wider range of purposes than originally envisaged, and growing societal expectations and changes in communication technology provide both the impetus and opportunity for a more detailed and more accurate service.

This is the final report for year two of this research project.

}, author = {Trent Penman and Bedward, M. and Ross Bradstock} } @article {BF-4272, title = {Environmental assessment of erosion following prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty Ranges, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, abstract = {Erosion following fire has the potential to affect water quality, alter soil profiles and detrimentally affect human infrastructure. There is a clear need for environmental assessments to have regard for erosion concerns from prescribed burning. This study focussed on 10 prescribed burns conducted in the Southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Generalised additive modelling was used to determine the main significant environmental variables influencing the presence of sediment movement at 505 field-assessed sites. Sediment movement after the 10 prescribed burns was minor. Fire severity was a highly significant environmental determinant for the presence of sediment movement after prescribed burning. To predict erosion concerns, a suite of environmental variables is more reliable than focusing solely on slope steepness, as occurred before this study. These results indicate that erosion assessments need to consider a range of environmental variables to assess potential erosion and that land managers and scientists need to incorporate spatial sampling designs into erosion assessments.}, keywords = {bioturbation, erosion assessment, fire severity, rainfall, sediment movement, slope, topography}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13011}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF13011.htm}, author = {Morris, Rowena and Ross Bradstock and Deirdre Dragovich and Henderson, M. K. and Trent Penman and Bertram Ostendorf} } @article {BF-4286, title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {266}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, pages = {172-186}, chapter = {172}, abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.}, keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X}, author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @inbook {BF-3789, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, issn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @inbook {BF-4297, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, pages = {149-170}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, isbn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @article {BF-3787, title = {Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11023.htm}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Hutley, LB and Garry D. Cook and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stefan Maier and Roxburgh, Stephen and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Damian J. Barrett and Keith, H and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Owen Price and Williams, RJ} } @proceedings {BF-3047, title = {The dirt on assessing post-fire erosion in the Mount Lofty Ranges: comparing methods}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-152-169-dirt-assessing-post-fire-erosion}, author = {Morris, Rowena and Solomon Buckman and Paul Connelly and Deirdre Dragovich and Bertram Ostendorf and Ross Bradstock} } @article {BF-3095, title = {Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {20}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {721}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is a commonly applied management tool, and there has been considerable debate over the efficacy of its application. We review data relating to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in Australia. Specifically, we address two questions: (1) to what extent can fuel reduction burning reduce the risk of loss of human life and economic assets posed from wildfires? (2) To what extent can prescribed burning be used to reduce the risk of biodiversity loss? Data suggest that prescribed burning can achieve a reduction in the extent of wildfires; however, at such levels, the result is an overall increase in the total area of the landscape burnt. Simulation modelling indicates that fuel reduction has less influence than weather on the extent of unplanned fire. The need to incorporate ecological values into prescribed burning programmes is becoming increasingly important. Insufficient data are available to determine if existing programs have been successful. There are numerous factors that prevent the implementation of better prescribed burning practices; most relate to a lack of clearly defined, measurable objectives. An adaptive risk management framework combined with enhanced partnerships between scientists and fire-management agencies is necessary to ensure that ecological and fuel reduction objectives are achieved.}, doi = {10.1071/WF09131}, author = {Trent Penman and Christie, Fiona J. and Andersen, A. N. and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Henderson, M. K. and Owen Price and Tran, C. and Wardle, G. M. and Williams, RJ and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2397, title = {Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {932}, abstract = {The probability of large-fire (>=1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20{\textendash}84\% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08133}, author = {Ross Bradstock and Cohn, J. S. and Gill, A. Malcolm and Bedward, M. and Chris Lucas} } @article {BF-2398, title = {Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape{\textendash}fire{\textendash}succession models}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {147}, abstract = {The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAF{\'E}, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07085}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Robert E. Keane and Ross Bradstock and Davies, Ian D. and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Logan, Kimberley A. and Parsons, Russell A.} } @article {BF-2392, title = {Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {02/2008}, pages = {55 - 67}, abstract = {Plant responses to fire are variable between and within species and are influenced by numerous factors including fire severity. This study investigated the effects of fire severity on the regeneration and recruitment of forest eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This study also examined the potential for the obligate seeder Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker (Myrtaceae) to expand into adjacent stands dominated by the facultative resprouter Eucalyptus fastigata H. Deane \& Maiden (Myrtaceae) by seed shed and seedling establishment beyond the pre-fire boundary. Sites were located in areas of either higher or lower fire severity, and transects were placed across the boundary of stands of E. delegatensis and E. fastigata. Species distributions, tree survival and seedling densities and heights were recorded, and the location of each boundary was determined as the region of maximum change in species composition along the transects. Eucalyptus delegatensis was the only eucalypt killed by higher severity fire. However, E. delegatensis seedling density was greater at higher severity sites than lower severity sites. Eucalyptus fastigata seedling density was low across all sites, with other eucalypts producing few, if any, seedlings. There was no evidence that E. delegatensis had increased its range into downslope stands dominated by E. fastigata. Patterns of vegetative recovery and seedling recruitment may be related to a number of factors, including differences in allocation patterns between seeders and sprouters, and the effects of overstory and understory competition. It is unclear what processes impede E. delegatensis seedling establishment beyond the stand boundary, but may involve an inability of E. delegatensis to shed seed sufficiently far downslope; unsuitable conditions for germination beyond the boundary; or, competition from a retained or resprouting overstory, despite the potential for increased dispersal distance soon after fire.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2007.01790.x}, author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2382, title = {The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {421}, abstract = {In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07052}, author = {Karen J. King and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chapman, Joanne and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} } @article {BF-2377, title = {Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Power law frequency-size distributions of forest fires have been observed in a range of environments. The scaling behaviour of fires, and more generally of landscape patterns related to recurring disturbance and recovery, have previously been explained in the frameworks of self-organized criticality (SOC) and highly optimized tolerance (HOT). In these frameworks the scaling behaviour of the fires is the global structure that either emerges spontaneously from locally operating processes (SOC) or is the product of a tuning process aimed at optimizing the trade-offs between system yield and tolerance to risks (HOT). Here, we argue that the dominant role of self-organized or optimised fuel patterns in constraining unplanned-fire sizes, implicit in the SOC and HOT frameworks, fails to recognise the strong exogenous controls of fire spread (i.e. by weather, terrain, and suppression) observed in many fire-prone landscapes. Using data from southern Australia we demonstrate that forest fire areas and the magnitudes of corresponding weather events have distributions with closely matching scaling exponents. We conclude that the spatial scale invariance of forest fires may also be a mapping of the meteorological forcing pattern. }, doi = {10.1007/s10980-008-9260-5}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2335, title = {Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {15}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {527}, abstract = {Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).}, doi = {10.1071/WF05076}, author = {Karen J. King and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Chapman, Joanne and Pyrke, Adrian and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} }