@article {bnh-6040, title = {Predicting the probability of failure of timber bridges using fault tree analysis}, journal = {Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {783-797}, abstract = {

The resilience of a community in an extreme event depends mainly on the robustness of the critical infrastructures. Road bridges are a critical link of the road network, which plays a focal role in Australia{\textquoteright}s economy, prosperity, social well-being and quality of life. Timber bridges are a weaker link of the Australian road network and they often provide critical access to the rural communities. This research uses a number of bridge inspection reports to develop a method to predict the probability of failure of a timber bridge. The inspected condition states of the elements in the timber bridge are used to develop a Markov chain based model and Gamma process model to predict the deterioration of each element. The probability of condition state movement for each element thus calculated were used in fault tree analysis to estimate likelihood of failure of a bridge in a given time period. Although the developed method is based on limited data and it has several limitations, model can be further refined with the availability of more inspection reports. The method developed is demonstrated using an inspection report for a timber bridge, which was not used in the development of the models.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, fault tree analysis, inspection, Markov process, rehabilitation, Timber structures}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1569069}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15732479.2019.1569069}, author = {Weena Lokuge and Matthew Wilson and Huu Tran and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-5191, title = {Predicting the failure of timber bridges by using current inspection reports}, journal = {Engineering for Public Works}, volume = {7}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {85-89}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

There is a large timber bridge stock in service within Australia and currently over 300 timber bridges on Queensland state controlled roads. Majority of these timber bridges are in the latter half of their service life and require constant maintenance as the timber components deteriorate over time. Detailed level 2 inspections are performed as part of the bridge management systems used by road authorities. This paper discusses a simple method to use an inspection report to predict the chance of the failure of the bridge in a given number of years. Although the Markov process adopted in this research was based on inspection reports for several timber bridges for three time periods, it can further be refined using a data base of inspections for many time periods and environmental conditions. The proposed method is demonstrated using an inspection report for a hypothetical timber bridge.

}, url = {https://issuu.com/ipweaqld/docs/epw_september_2017}, author = {Weena Lokuge and Matthew Wilson and Huu Tran and Sujeeva Setunge} }