@article {bnh-2657, title = {Calibration and validation of FLFArs {\textendash} a new flood loss function for Australian residential structures}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {16}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, pages = {15-27}, chapter = {15}, abstract = {

Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustain- able developments are increasing the risk of floods. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial con- sequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster im- pacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful.

In this paper, a newly derived flood loss function for Australian residential structures (FLFArs ) has been presented and calibrated by using historic data collected from an extreme event in Queensland, Australia, that occurred in 2013. After- wards, the performance of the method developed in this work (contrasted to one Australian model and one model from USA) has been compared with the observed damage data collected from a 2012 flood event in Maranoa, Queensland. Based on this analysis, validation of the selected methodolo- gies has been performed in terms of Australian geographical conditions.

Results obtained from the new empirically based function (FLFArs ) and the other models indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models is strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estima- tion without model calibration might result in inaccurate predictions of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, es- pecially if models have not been calibrated with real damage data.

}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-16-15-2016}, url = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/15/2016/}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo and Lehman, W.} } @article {bnh-2725, title = {Development and evaluation of FLFAcs - A new Flood Loss Function for Australian commercial structures}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,}, volume = {17}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {13-23}, chapter = {13}, abstract = {

Commercial building flood losses significantly affect the Australian economy; however, there are not many models for commercial flood damage estimation and their results are not reliable. This study has attempted to derive and develop a new model (FLFAcs) for estimating the magnitude of direct damage on commercial structures. The FLFAcs\ {\textendash} Flood Loss Function for Australian commercial structures, was calibrated using empirical data collected from the 2013 flood in Bundaberg, Australia, and considering the inherent uncertainty in the data sample. In addition, the newly derived model has been validated using a K-fold cross-validation procedure. The model performance has also been compared with the Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) damage functions from overseas, as well as the ANUFLOOD damage model from Australia.

The validation procedure shows very good results for FLFAcs\ performance (no bias and only five per cent mean absolute error). It also shows that ANUFLOOD, as Australia{\textquoteright}s most prevalently used commercial loss estimation model, is still subject to very high uncertainty. Hence, there is an immediate need for a project to build new depth{\textendash}damage functions for commercial and industrial properties.

Awareness of these issues is important for strategic decision-making in flood risk reduction and it could amplify the cognition of decision-makers and insurance companies about flood risk assessment in Australia.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.03.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091530131X}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari}, editor = {Tuan Ngo and Lehman, W.} }