@article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @article {bnh-3568, title = {An analysis of human fatalities from cyclones, earthquakes and severe storms in Australia}, number = {247}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report examines the socio-demographic and environmental circumstances surrounding fatalities from cyclones, earthquakes and severe storms (hail, gusts, lightning, rain and tornados). It is the second major milestone from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) funded project {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright}.

The foundation for this work is the use of the Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database PerilAUS, which contains historical data on the incidence (magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of natural hazard events in Australia. PerilAUS contains many of the names of the deceased which, during the course of this project, has enabled the collection of more detailed information on the circumstances of many of the fatalities from coronial inquest reports.

The data has been analysed to inform the understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths and how this information could best be utilised for emergency management policy and practice. This has included an examination of the data around the following themes: demographics, cause of death, location of the fatality and transport, activity and action prior to and at the time of death, capacity and awareness and, where possible, the severity of the event.

}, issn = {247}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Katharine Haynes and Deirdre Radford and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Robin van den Honert and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5075, title = {Exploring the circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia{\textemdash}1900{\textendash}2015 and the implications for policy and practice}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {76}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {165-176}, chapter = {165}, abstract = {

This paper documents the analysis of the circumstances surrounding fatalities due to flooding in Australia between 1900 and 2015. This longitudinal investigation is important to understand changing trends in social vulnerability and to inform efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies. The basis of this analysis was\ PerilAUS, Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database of historical natural hazard impacts in Australia. This data was augmented and verified using coronial inquest records which provide detailed data concerning the social, demographic and environmental circumstances of each fatality. A statistical analysis of the data was undertaken, examining demographics (age, gender), location (state), seasonality, circumstances surrounding the fatality,\ environmental factors\ (e.g. the event intensity) and social factors (e.g. the decisions or actions which led to death). Overall there have been 1859 fatalities identified, with distinct trends in relation to gender, age, activity and reason behind the activity. Flood deaths have been declining. The majority of the fatalities are male (79.3\%): however, since the 1960s the proportion of female to male fatalities has increased. Children and young adults (\<29years) make up the greatest proportion of the fatalities (53.8\% of cases where age is known). The highest proportions of fatalities occurred while victims attempted to cross a flood-impacted bridge or road. The recommendations for\ emergency management\ policy and practice are discussed, outlining the need for a new approach that accounts for a continuum of measures including regulation and incentive, education and structural intervention.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117301818}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Robin van den Honert and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @article {bnh-4145, title = {A natural hazard building loss profile for Australia: 1900-2015}, number = {331}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study examines building damage as recorded in PerilAUS to determine the national profile of natural peril impacts and frequencies. The analysis employs Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} Damage Index based on a House Equivalent (HE) loss metric introduced by Blong (2003); a normalisation correction based on Crompton and McAneney (2008) and Crompton et al. (2010); and a lower bound event threshold of 25 normalised HE. The latter is equivalent to a monetary loss of around $10m in 2015-16. Normalisation puts historical events on a common footing with losses that would be incurred given 2015 societal and demographic conditions. It answers the question: what would be the building losses if historic events were to recur today?

While more validation and analysis remains to be done, we are confident that the relative importance of the various perils and their spatial distribution across states and territories has been faithfully captured. Broadly we find that there have been on average 5.85 events per year causing losses in excess of 25 normalised HE. This frequency exhibits no statistically significant change since 1900. The mean loss per event is $118m with a standard deviation of $430m.

The most costly event in terms of building damage is the 1999 Sydney hailstorm, which was also the most expensive insured loss. The losses broadly follow a Pareto distribution in which 20\% of events account for 80\% of the aggregated normalised building losses and the top 20 are responsible for 50\% of those losses. We can expect natural disaster events as costly as the 1999 Sydney hailstorm to occur about once per century, events like the Brisbane floods once every 30 to 40 years and that of the Hobart Bushfires about once a decade.

Just why most of the extreme losses {\textendash} the 1974 Brisbane floods and Cyclone Tracy in the same calendar year, the 1999 Sydney hailstorm and the 2011 Queensland and Victorian floods {\textendash} are clustered post-1970 requires further investigation. We do not believe this to be a reporting bias and know in the case of floods, for example, that Brisbane experienced much higher floods in the early and late 19th century than either the 1974 and 2011 floods. Regardless of the reason, the pattern of losses demonstrates clearly the {\textquoteleft}heavy-tailed{\textquoteright} character of the distribution of natural peril losses: in other words, there is always the possibility of event losses far in excess of the historical mean. This may be occur because of an event of higher intensity or larger footprint, that footprint impacting an area of higher-valued exposure, or all of these together.

Of all the perils, tropical cyclones have been most destructive and responsible for 30\% of the national building damage since 1900. Bushfires, floods and hail have all been similarly costly each accounting for another 18\% of building losses, although when hailstorms are combined with other storm events (excluding cyclones), thunderstorms similarly contribute 30\% of the losses. Compared with meteorological hazards, geophysical perils have had a minor influence on building damage over the last 116 years with earthquake losses dominated by a single event -- the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. However this time period is too short to predict the frequency of damaging seismic events and in the case of this peril, as with some others, the spatial pattern of losses shown here could be overturned by another extreme loss.\ 

}, issn = {331}, author = {John McAneney and Madappatt, N and Coates, Lucinda and R Crompton and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Blong, R} } @article {bnh-2735, title = {An analysis of human fatalities from floods in Australia 1900-2015}, number = {166}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, abstract = {

This report examines the socio-demographic and environmental circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia between 1900 and 2015. It is the first major milestone from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre funded project {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright}.

The foundation for this work is the use of the Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database PerilAUS, which contains historical data on the incidence (magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of natural hazard events in Australia. PerilAUS contains many of the names of the deceased, which, during the course of this project has enabled the collection of more detailed information on the circumstances of many of the fatalities from coronial inquest reports. Since project commencement, the Flood Database has increased in total number of flood events by 75\%. The number of fatal flood events has increased by 100\% over the length of the project. Importantly, the percentage of named fatalities has increased from 50\% to 90\%, in addition to an increase in the overall numbers of fatalities.

The data has been analysed in relation to informing the understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths and how this information could best be utilised for emergency management policy and practice. This has included an examination of the data around the following themes: demographics, cause of death, location of the fatality and transport, activity and reason behind action prior to death, capacity and awareness, and flood type and severity.\ 

}, issn = {166}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Robin van den Honert and Deirdre Radford and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith} }