@article {bnh-8383, title = {Exploring Volunteer Turnover Reasons, Intentions, and Behaviour}, journal = {Group \& Organization Management}, year = {2024}, month = {03/2024}, abstract = {

Volunteer involving organisations play a vital role in many societies. Yet, turnover among volunteers remains a persistent struggle and volunteer involving organisations still do not have a good understanding of why volunteers leave. In response, we employed a mixed-methods approach to explore why volunteers consider leaving. By coding textual responses of Australian State Emergency Services and Scouting volunteers (n\ = 252 and 2235) on an annual engagement survey, we found seven overarching reasons to consider leaving these volunteer involving organisations: Conflict, high demands and/or low resources, lack of fit, lack of inclusion, personal commitments and circumstances, poor communication and organisational practices, and poor leadership. When contrasted to the reasons that employees leave organisations for, the lack of inclusion and poor communication and organisational practices seem to be uniquely salient reasons that volunteers consider leaving for. Subsequently, guided by the Proximal Withdrawal States theory and using quantitative data from the Scouts sample, we investigated how reasons to consider turnover can predict turnover intentions and turnover behavior. First, volunteers in different withdrawal states cited different potential turnover reasons. For example, volunteers who {\textquoteleft}wanted to stay, but felt they had to leave{\textquoteright} cited personal commitments and circumstances more frequently than those in different withdrawal states. Second, we found that reasons to consider turnover explained little variance in turnover behavior one year later.

}, keywords = {volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/10596011241237841}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10596011241237841}, author = {Djurre Holtrop and Christine Soo and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Aleksandra Luksyte} } @article {bnh-8378, title = {Business involvement in disaster management}, number = {15.2023}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, institution = {Natural Hazards Research Australia}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Severe to catastrophic disasters pose the potential to overwhelm traditional emergency management approaches, necessitating the adoption of a whole-of-community approach.

A key component of the whole-of-community approach is building collaborative partnerships between communities, government agencies, community organisations and businesses across the phases of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery to engage their full capacity.

To date, there has been little research examining the role of the business sector in disaster management although many businesses, large and small, provide assistance. This research focuses specifically on the role and involvement of businesses in disaster management.

Pertinent findings of the research were:

}, issn = {15.2023}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George} } @article {bnh-8379, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics - final project report}, number = {736}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, institution = {Natural Hazards Research Australia}, abstract = {

The Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics project (the Spotfire Project) was one of the core research projects within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC{\textquoteright}s Bushfire Predictive Services research cluster. Specifically, the Spotfire Project was focused on enhancing our understanding of the physical processes involved in spot fire development and coalescence and developing computationally efficient mathematical models that can accurately account for these the patterns of bushfire propagation associated with mass spotting and other modes of dynamic fire behaviour. Current operational models and associated simulation platforms are predicated on the assumptions that fires spread in a quasi-steady manner and that different parts of a fire line evolve independently of other parts {\textendash} both of these assumptions are manifestly untrue during mass spotting events.

The research took a multifaceted approach, which drew upon experimentation, computer simulation and mathematical modelling to develop a new dynamic modelling framework that permits faster-than-real-time simulation of fire propagation incorporating dynamic drivers. Experimentation took place at both laboratory and field scales. Laboratory experimentation was conducted in the CSIRO Pyrotron and in collaboration with Portuguese colleagues at the Centre for the Study of Forest Fires. Field scale experiments were also conducted in Portugal. The experiments provided insights into the dynamic nature of fire behaviour and provided data for calibration and validation of the models under development.

Coupled fire-atmosphere models were used to perform idealized simulations of various scenarios involving dynamic fire propagation. The model output provided detailed quantitative insights into the physical processes driving dynamic fire propagation and were used to inform development of new mathematical models. The mathematical model developed during the project is essentially a two-dimensional version of a coupled fire-atmosphere model {\textendash} it incorporates the feedback between the fire and the atmosphere but within the two-dimensional Spark fire simulation platform.

The research has yielded many important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing spot fires, and these insights have enhanced our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. These have in turn provided new understanding of violent pyroconvective events and extreme bushfire development.

The most significant research outcome was the development of the pyrogenic potential model, which permits world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation (e.g., vorticity-driven lateral spread) using a two-dimensional simulation framework. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. The research has also examined various other issues related to the spotting process and dynamic fire propagation more generally. These include: the effects of wind-terrain interaction on ember trajectories and the likely distribution of spot fires downwind of complex terrain, the influence of spot fires on the overall rate of spread of a fire, the influence of terminal velocity assumptions on ember trajectory modelling, the influence of fuel characteristics (e.g., bulk density) on spot fire development and pyroconvective feedback, the role of fine scale vorticity effects on dynamic fire behaviour, and development of simple measures of pyroconvective potential.

There is considerable utilisation potential for the research findings. The advances in fire behaviour modelling are easily incorporated within the Spark simulator platform. Given that Spark has been formally chosen by AFAC to be the new national bushfire prediction platform, the project{\textquoteright}s research findings will eventually be available to all involved in operational prediction of bushfire propagation. Moreover, the insights into dynamic fire behaviours provided by the project will form the basis for new firefighter training and education materials that will equip operational personnel with better knowledge of the full spectrum of possible fire behaviours in given scenarios. This will improve situational awareness, with benefits for firefighter safety.

The project has also developed a new mapping product that identifies regions prone to mass spotting in association with vorticity-driven lateral spread. This will be available to fire management agencies and other relevant organisations, to assist with fire behaviour prediction, with special relevance to anticipating blow-up fire events and extreme bushfire development.

Overall, the Spotfire Project has presented a new paradigm for understanding fire behaviour and has made the first significant advances towards the next generation of operational models. The insights gained from the research complements and extends existing fire behaviour knowledge in a way that enhances our ability to deal with the increasing bushfire threat into the future.

}, issn = {736}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Badlan, R} } @article {bnh-8377, title = {Implementation of spatially-varying wind adjustment factor for wildfire simulations}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {163}, year = {2023}, month = {05/2023}, pages = {105660}, abstract = {

The behaviour and rate of spread of a wildfire is strongly affected by local wind conditions depending on topography and surrounding vegetation. The wind speed within dense vegetation can be substantially lower than the open wind speed above the vegetation. This is commonly accounted for by applying a local correction factor to the local wind speed which can be called the wind adjustment factor (WAF). WAFs are often difficult to calculate and are usually based estimates for a particular vegetation type. Variation in the vegetation may result in spatially varying WAFs. We implement a model for spatially-varying WAFs based on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height data, which can be derived from remote sensing data sources. The model is implemented within Spark an operational wildfire prediction framework. Simulations of historical fires using the spatially-varying WAF model generally provided improved predictions compared to recorded fire extents than simulations without a spatially-varying WAF.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, modeling, spread, WAF, Wildfire, wind adjustment factor}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105660}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815223000464?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8366, title = {Physics-based modelling of junction fires: Parametric study}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, abstract = {

Background; Junction fires occur when two fire fronts merge. The ROS and HRR of the junction quickly increase more than that of each fire front; this effect is exacerbated by slopes. Aims; Numerical modelling of junction fires and an interpretation of their behaviour is given by examining the key factors that influence the fires. Methods; Physics-based simulations of laboratory-scale junction fires were performed for shrub fuel bed using FIRESTAR3D. Twenty cases were simulated to quantify the effect of slope (0{\textdegree} to 40{\textdegree}) and junction angles (15{\textdegree} to 90{\textdegree}). Key results; Accelerative and decelerative behaviours were observed for junction angles lower than 45{\textdegree}, but above this, deceleration was absent. The behaviour was firmly related to junction angle evolution which controlled the flame and the interactions between fire fronts. HRR followed similar trends; maximum HRR increased with increasing junction angle. Convection was found to be the primary heat transfer mode in the initial propagation phase. In non-slope cases, radiation was the dominant method of heat transfer, but convection dominated fires on slopes. Conclusions; The physics-based model provided great insight into junction fire behaviour. The junction angle was critical for determining ROS and fire behaviour. Implications; The research helped to assess the effects of some topographical parameters in extreme fires. Situational awareness, operational predictions, and firefighter safety will consequently improve.

}, keywords = {fire behavior, physics-based model}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/justaccepted/WF22121}, author = {Ahmed Hassan and Gilbert Accary and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8372, title = {Physics-based simulations of grassfire propagation on sloped terrain at field scale: flame dynamics, mode of fire propagation and heat fluxes}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2023}, month = {01/2023}, abstract = {

The interaction of wind and fire on a sloped terrain is always complex owing to the mechanisms of heat transfer and flame dynamics. Heating of unburned vegetation by attached flames may increase the rate of spread. The relative intensities of convective and radiative heat fluxes may change fire behaviour significantly. This paper presents a detailed analysis of flame dynamics, mode of fire propagation and surface radiative and convective heat fluxes on sloped terrain at various wind speeds using physics-based simulations. It was found that with increasing slope angles and wind velocity, the plume inclines more towards the ground and becomes elongated in upslope cases, whereas in downslope cases, the plume rises from the ground earlier. For higher wind velocities, the flame and near-surface flame dynamics appear to show rising, even though the plume is attached. The flame contour results indicate that the near-surface flame dynamics are difficult to characterise using Byram{\textquoteright}s number. A power-law correlation was observed between the simulated flame lengths and fireline intensities. The convective heat fluxes are more relevant for wind-driven fire propagation and greater upslopes, whereas both fluxes are equally significant for lower driving wind velocities compared with higher wind velocities.

}, keywords = {Byram number, fire propagation, flame, grassfire, heat fluxes, plume, rate of spread (RoS), slope, wind velocity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21125}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF21125$\#$FN1}, author = {Jasmine Innocent and Duncan Sutherland and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8375, title = {Physics-based simulations of grassfire propagation on sloped terrain at field scale: motivations, model reliability, rate of spread and fire intensity}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2023}, month = {01/2023}, abstract = {

This study focuses on physics-based modelling of grassfire behaviour over flat and sloped terrains through a set of field-scale simulations performed using the Wildland{\textendash}urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS), with varying wind speeds (12.5, 6 and 3 m s-1) and slope angles (-30{\textdegree} to +30{\textdegree}). To ensure the accuracy of this Large Eddy Simulation (LES), a sensitivity study was carried out to select the converged domain and grid sizes. Fire isochrones, locations of fire front, dynamic and quasi-steady rates of spread (RoS), and fire intensity results from the simulations are presented. Within the simulations conducted, the RoS and fire intensity were found to be higher with increasing slope angles, as well as with wind velocity. RoS comparisons are made with various empirical models. At different slope angles and driving wind velocities, different empirical quasi-steady RoS broadly match with particular dynamic maximum, minimum and averaged RoS values from this study. It appears that the ideal nature of grassfire propagation simulation and challenges related to measuring quasi-steady values in experimental studies are likely reasons for the observed differences. Additionally, for lower wind velocities, the RoS{\textendash}fire intensity relationship (Byram{\textquoteright}s) deviates from linearity for greater upslopes.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, fire front, grass fire, intensity, rate of spread (RoS) of fire, simulations, slope, wind speed}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21124}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF21124}, author = {Jasmine Innocent and Duncan Sutherland and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8367, title = {Simulated behaviour of wildland fire spreading through idealised heterogeneous fuels}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, abstract = {

Homogeneous vegetation is widely used in wildland fire behaviour models, although real vegetation is heterogeneous in nature and composed of different kinds of fuels and non-combustible parts. Many features of fires can arise from this heterogeneity. For land management and firefighting, creating heterogeneous fuel areas may be useful to reduce fire intensity and rate of spread (ROS), and alter fire geometry. Recently, an empirical model for fire spread in spinifex grasslands was developed and validated against experimental measurements. In this study, physics-based grassland fire behaviour simulations were conducted with varying percentages of fuel cover and alternating square and rectangular patches of burnable and non-burnable material. The environmental conditions and thermophysical properties of the grassland were kept constant throughout the simulation to separate the effects of fuel heterogeneities from other parameters. For three sets of nominal wind velocities, 3, 5.6 and 10 m s-1, we identified {\textquoteleft}go{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}no go{\textquoteright} fires. Reasonable agreement between the non-dimensionalised simulated ROS and observed ROS in spinifex was found. There is a significant reduction of fire intensity, ROS, flame length, fire width and fire line length due to the heterogeneous effect of vegetation.

}, keywords = {fire line length, flame length, heterogeneity, homogeneous vegetation, Rate of spread, spinifex, wildland fire, wind spee}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22009}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF22009}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8368, title = {Up-scaling fuel hazard metrics derived from terrestrial laser scanning using a machine learning model}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {15}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, pages = {1273}, abstract = {

undefined

}, keywords = {ALS, canopy, cover, elevated, field data, fuel hazard, fuel layers, fuel metrics, height, near-surface, random forest, up-scaling, visual assessments}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15051273}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/5/1273}, author = {Ritu Taneja and Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Karin Reinke and James Hilton and Simon Jones and Bryan Hally} } @article {bnh-8380, title = {Using videos in floods and bushfires to educate, signal risk, and promote protective action in the community}, journal = {Safety Science}, volume = {164}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, abstract = {

Videos are commonly used by emergency services agencies in natural hazard emergencies to communicate to the public about the hazard, its possible risks, and to promote protective action. To evaluate the efficacy of the videos being disseminated and amplified during an event, this research examined the extent to which different types of videos trigger risk perceptions, promote protective action, and improve knowledge about the hazard and impact. The findings suggest a video containing a smaller number of facts is most useful at impacting the public{\textquoteright}s hazard knowledge, visualisations (real-life or infographics) of facts helps improve knowledge, and videos highlighting the impact an emergency is having (or had) through people{\textquoteright}s experiences helped improve hazard knowledge, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. Finally, while footage of a bushfire triggers threat perceptions and some coping appraisal, the style is not as useful for building hazard knowledge. The research extends visual risk literacy knowledge and offers practical guidance for agencies operating in high-risk environments seeking to achieve behavioural compliance. The research argues videos will continue to be an important tool in the public information and warning milieu for any risk event.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Floods, Hazard knowledge, Risk perception, Visual communication, wildfires}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106166}, url = {https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S092575352300108X?token=E04DACC8FEDBF7004C50FE7FE1D497A53312A572F2594F14129DBAA7AEB2CA157658D01EDBA569E71D658B294138AA15\&originRegion=us-east-1\&originCreation=20230508003157}, author = {Paula Dootson and Erica Kuligowski and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-8370, title = {Vehicle-related causes of flood fatalities}, journal = {Natural Hazard Science}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, abstract = {

Vehicle-related flood incidents represent a leading cause of flood fatalities, as well as resulting in an additional health system and emergency services burden. A large proportion of these deaths are preventable and represent an area of collaboration across a range of fields, including emergency services, disaster preparedness, floodplain management, public health, and road safety. The nature of the risk is exacerbated by increases in the frequency and severity of flood events in a warming climate and further urbanization.

The nature of vehicle-related flood incidents is multidimensional, consisting of flood hazard, behavioral, vehicle, and road-related factors. Equally, strategies required to reduce the incidence of vehicles entering floodwater must be multidimensional, giving consideration to behavioral, regulatory, structural, and emergency response measures. Such an approach requires the involvement of a diverse range of stakeholders.

}, keywords = {behavior, climate, Drowning, Flood, prevention, regulation, social cognition}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.438}, url = {https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-438?rskey=eQeJXc}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Kyra Hamilton and Grantley Smith and Amy Peden} } @article {bnh-8342, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - final project report}, number = {728}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Satellite sensors are an important source of observations of fire activity (or hotspots). Next generation geostationary satellites (Himawari-8, GeoKompsat 2A, GOES-16/17) provide earth observations very frequently (~every 10-minutes).\  This near-real time data provides opportunities for new and improved fire detection algorithms. Early fire detection algorithms that take advantage of such high frequency observations, and that are primed for Australian landscapes, are developed under this project.\ \ 

The performance of new fire detection data\  forms part of the development phase.\  How well do they perform? What are their limitations? What are their advantages for observing fire under different fire scenarios and in different landscapes?\  One aspect of evaluation is how does the algorithm, and implementation of the algorithm as a processing chain, perform under operational circumstances.\  To this end, an end-user trial was hosted by NSW RFS for the near-real time implementation of the new Himawari-8 hotspot algorithm (March 2019-March 2021) and expanded to include Victoria over the 2019-2020 (black summer) bushfire season.\ \ 

Results from the project developed algorithms compare extremely favourably with existing polar-orbiting fire detections and other Himawari-based approaches. This has led to wide interest and project outputs being adopted by end-users.

}, issn = {728}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-8329, title = {Analysis and characterisation of bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events from the 2019-20 fire season - Black Summer final report}, number = {683}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of this project was stated in the Research Services Agreement as: {\textquotedblleft}to develop a novel dataset that will capture information about individual bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events. The initial focus will be on those interactions that occurred during the 2019/20 fire season.{\textquotedblright} In other words, the project was to design a database that will allow evaluation of prescribed burns from planning stages to ultimate outcomes, and start using the data for some cases. In this report, we begin by outlining this dataset and its sources of information, though we have not populated it. Instead, we list potential evaluations that could be done with and conduct two evaluations with components of the data.

The core of the proposed fire-meets-fire dataset is matched reporting from the Burn Plan (before) and Burn Report (on completion), especially area, fuel, moisture and weather variables. Some of this is not routinely reported in the current Elements System (for example 21\% of burns had no actual area burnt recorded and most burns were missing fuel information). The dataset should also ingest information from fire severity mapping (which is now routine) and smoke impact. If the burn meets a bushfire a new range of information is available and should be ingested, including the severity of the bushfire within the burn. The advantage that the burn gave to firefighters is hard to gauge simply from fire severity, so additional information is needed, most importantly from firefighter interviews, but also by more detailed GIS examination of bushfire behavior.

There are many evaluations that could be done with this dataset, from simple metrics such as percent of planned area actually burnt, to refinement of weather prescriptions for burns to whole-of-program evaluations applied to all burns such as the severity analysis presented here.

Sections 3 and 4 are examples of whole of program evaluations. Section 4 is an analysis of severity reduction in the 2019/20 bushfires relating the occurrence of high severity fire in ~100,000 points to the fire history at those points, and controlling for vegetation, weather and topography. This found that in dry sclerophyll, recent burning (up to ~five years) reduced the probability of high severity fire and even more so if that previous burn was at low severity.

Section 4 uses visual interpretation of the 2019/20 bushfire severity and progression mapping to attribute each previous prescribed burn with its effect on the bushfire. This ranged from stopping the bushfire altogether (having a common boundary) to simple severity reduction (was the bushfire severity reduced in the burn?). We found that 30\% of burns from 2014 were encountered by the bushfires. Of these 509 burns, 13\% of them were aligned with the final fire boundary, 42\% of recent burns (one or two years old) caused some unburnt patches within the burn, and 68\% caused a severity reduction. Burns older than this had much less effect, and we found two cases where a burn left an unburnt shadow behind it (meaning shadows are very rare events). We were able to cross-reference our interpretation for 14 burns to interviews from another pilot project. This revealed broad agreement, but also highlighted several cases where a burn gave firefighters an advantage that could not be found in the GIS. Three of these were cases where the bushfire slowed down (sometimes for several days), allowing firefighters time to prepare. There were two cases where burns outside of the burn perimeter effectively reduced spotting activity.

The project demonstrates what can be done to evaluate prescribed burning programs and that a wide range of data is required to do this thoroughly. The 2019/20 bushfire season was extraordinary in many ways. Our analysis suggests that one of these ways was that prescribed burns only reduced fire behavior if they were one or two years old. Analyses of previous seasons generally find a longer lasting effect. Even so, there were many instances where prescribed burns helped firefighters, including in ways that are not obvious in GIS analyses.

}, keywords = {2019-20, analysis, black summer, Bushfire, characterisation, prescribed burn}, issn = {683}, author = {Owen Price and James Barker and Simin Rahmani and Wilkinson, Carrie and Donald MacDonald} } @article {bnh-8364, title = {Cardiac autonomic impacts of bushfire smoke {\textendash} A prospective panel study}, journal = {Heart, Lung and Circulation}, year = {2022}, month = {11/2022}, abstract = {

Background

Air pollution is associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Most studies have focussed on urban or traffic-related pollution, and less is known about the impacts from bushfire smoke on cardiovascular autonomic function, although it is associated with increased sudden cardiac death and mortality. We sought to investigate its instantaneous and short-term impacts on heart rate variability (HRV).

Methods

Twenty-four (24)-hour Holter electrocardiography (ECG) was repeated twice (during bushfire [Phase 1] and then clean air [Phase 2]) in 32 participants from two Australian towns (Warburton and Traralgon, Victoria) surrounding planned burning areas. This was compared with 10 control participants in another town (Maffra, Victoria) with two clean air assessments during the same periods. The primary HRV parameters assessed were those assessing overall HRV (Standard Deviation of Normal-to-Normal intervals [SDNN]), long-term HRV (Standard Deviation of the Average of Normal Sinus-to-Normal Sinus intervals for each 5-minutes [SDANN]), low frequency [LF]) and short-term HRV (Root Mean Square of Successive Differences between N-N intervals [RMSSD], High Frequency [HF], LF:HF ratio). Average concentrations of particulate matter \<2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) were measured at fixed site monitors in each location.

Results

Mean PM2.5\ levels were significantly elevated during bushfire exposure in Warburton (96.5{\textpm}57.7 μg/m3\ vs 4.0{\textpm}1.9 μg/m3, p\<0.001) and Traralgon (12.6{\textpm}4.9 μg/m3\ vs 3.4{\textpm}3.1 μg/m3, p\<0.001), while it remained low in the control town, Maffra, in each phase (4.3{\textpm}3.2 μg/m3\ and 3.9{\textpm}3.6 μg/m3, p=0.70). Although SDANN remained stable in controls, the exposed cohort showed significant worsening in SDANN during bushfire smoke exposure by 9.6{\textpm}25.7ms (p=0.039). In univariable analysis, smoke exposure was significantly associated with higher ΔSDNN and ΔSDANN (p=0.03, p=0.01 exposed vs control). The association remained significant in ΔSDANN after adjusting for age, sex and cigarette smoking (p=0.02) and of borderline significance in ΔSDNN (p=0.06).

Conclusions

Exposure to the bushfire smoke was independently associated with reduced overall and long-term HRV. Our findings suggest that imbalance in cardiac autonomic function is a key mechanism of adverse cardiovascular effects of bushfire smoke.

}, keywords = {bushfire smoke, cardiac function, exposure, heart rate variability, impacts}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hlc.2022.08.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1443950622010836$\#$preview-section-abstract}, author = {Malanka Lankaputhra and Fay Johnston and Petr Otahal and Edura Jalil and Martine Dennekamp and Kazuaki Negishi} } @inbook {bnh-8365, title = {A community engagement approach to natural hazard communication}, booktitle = {The Handbook of Crisis Communication}, year = {2022}, pages = {327-344}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons Ltd}, organization = {John Wiley \& Sons Ltd}, edition = {Second Edition}, address = {West Sussex, UK}, isbn = {978-1-119-67892-2}, url = {https://www.wiley.com/en-us/The+Handbook+of+Crisis+Communication+:+Second+Edition-p-9781119678922}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan} } @inbook {bnh-8346, title = {Connecting Weather and Hazard: A partnership of physical scientists in connected disciplines}, booktitle = {Towards the {\textquotedblleft}Perfect{\textquotedblright} Weather Warning: Bridging Disciplinary Gaps through Partnership and Communication}, year = {2022}, pages = {149}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, organization = {Springer Nature}, chapter = {6}, abstract = {

Achieving consistency in the prediction of the atmosphere and related environmental hazards requires careful design of forecasting systems. In this chapter, we identify the
benefits of seamless approaches to hazard prediction and the challenges of achieving them in a multi-institution situation. We see that different modelling structures are adopted in different disciplines and that these often relate to the user requirements for those hazards. We then explore the abilities of weather prediction to meet the requirements of these different disciplines. We find that differences in requirement and language can be major challenges to seamless data processing and look at some ways in which these can be resolved. We conclude with examples of partnerships in flood forecasting in the UK and wildfire forecasting in Australia.

}, keywords = {Cold, Coupled model, Evaluation, Fire, Forecaster, Heat, hydrology, Ocean Flood, Seamless, Winter}, issn = {978-3-030-98989-7}, doi = {doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_6}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_6$\#$Abs1}, author = {Brian Golding and Jenny Sun and MIchael Riemer and Nusrat Yussouf and Helen Titley and Joanne Robbins and Beth Ebert and Tom Pagano and Huw Lewis and Claire Dashwood and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-8306, title = {Consistent and conflicting information in floods and bushfires impact risk information seeking, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, abstract = {

A core challenge for emergency services agencies is encouraging people to take protective action in a noisy, information-rich environment. This challenge is heightened when the environment is filled with conflicting information. While investigations of conflicting information are prevalent in temporally distant health contexts such as smoking cessation, where the effects of the protective action (i.e., quitting) take years to be realised, studies have yet to examine the impact of conflicting information when the potential outcome of the protective action (e.g., saving your life) has greater temporal immediacy. In this study we compare how social cues (media, peers, commercial weather forecaster) and environmental cues (weather conditions) that are consistent/conflict with an emergency warning message, impact community risk information processing, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. The research finds risk perception is higher and intention to undertake protective action and information sharing is more likely when there is consistency between the emergency warning message and the socio-environmental cues, whereas heuristic information processing, self-efficacy, and information seeking are more likely to occur in the presence of conflicting cues. The research moves beyond high-level discourse about conflicting information {\textquoteleft}causing confusion{\textquoteright} in the community to a more nuanced, empirical understanding of the complexities of conflicting information across multiple stages of the decision-making process, in a context with greater temporal immediacy for action. Practical suggestions are made for agencies managing conflicting information when the conflict comes from socio-environmental cues. Future research is warranted for replication and to test mitigation strategies for conflicting information.

}, keywords = {decision-making, emergency service, information, protective action}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102774}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921007354}, author = {Paula Dootson and Erica Kuligowski and Dominique A Greer and Sophie A Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-8376, title = {Determining firebrand generation rate using physics-based modelling from experimental studies through inverse analysis}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, abstract = {

Firebrand spotting is a potential threat to people and infrastructure, which is difficult to predict and becomes more significant when the size of a fire and intensity increases. To conduct realistic physics-based modeling with firebrand transport, the firebrand generation data such as numbers, size, and shape of the firebrands are needed. Broadly, the firebrand generation depends on atmospheric conditions, wind velocity and vegetation species. However, there is no experimental study that has considered all these factors although they are available separately in some experimental studies. Moreover, the experimental studies have firebrand collection data, not generation data. In this study, we have conducted a series of physics-based simulations on a trial-and-error basis to reproduce the experimental collection data, which is called an inverse analysis. Once the generation data was determined from the simulation, we applied the interpolation technique to calibrate the effects of wind velocity, relative humidity, and vegetation species. First, we simulated Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree-burning and quantified firebrand generation against the tree burning experiment conducted at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Then, we applied the same technique to a prescribed forest fire experiment conducted in the Pinelands National Reserve (PNR) of New Jersey, the USA. The simulations were conducted with the experimental data of fuel load, humidity, temperature, and wind velocity to ensure that the field conditions are replicated in the experiments. The firebrand generation rate was found to be 3.22 pcs/MW/s (pcs-number of firebrands pieces) from the single tree burning and 4.18 pcs/MW/s in the forest fire model. This finding was complemented with the effects of wind, vegetation type, and fuel moisture content to quantify the firebrand generation rate.

}, keywords = {FDS, Firebrands, physics-based modeling, wildland fire, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5010006}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/1/6}, author = {Amila Wickramasinghe and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8361, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour - final project report}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the last decade, there have been extreme wildfire events around the world resulting in substantial social, economic and environmental impacts. They threaten many lives and cost billions of dollars in damage. Climate change is making the fire seasons around the world even worse by extending the number of dry and hot days [1-4]. A longer fire season is expected to result in more frequent and severe fires [5, 6]. Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire season 2019/20 (Black Summer fires hereafter) appears to have supported these conclusions in terms of the ecological consequences and impacts on human populations [7].

In most cases, these consequences are the result of dynamic fire behaviours (DFBs) [8-11]. The DFBs are localised dynamic events that occur within fires, whereby physical feedbacks greatly enhance fire intensities and rates of spread. Understanding and having the ability to predict DFBs in wildfire events is essential to ensure the safety of communities living in or near the Wildland-Urban Interface.

In this regard, the project {\textquoteleft}Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour{\textquoteright} was focused on the understanding and analysis of dynamic fire effects; their influence on fire behaviour and structures; and the potential of including these effects in fire behaviour models and new building standards.

}, issn = {735}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-8382, title = {Development of Capability Targets for the NSW Emergency Management Sector}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Resilience NSW, through the support of the BNHCRC, engaged Risk Frontiers to undertake research into capability target definition. The research question was:
What are the capability targets (including measurable impacts, objectives and timeframe metrics) for the NSW Emergency Management Sector?\ This research report focuses on addressing each of these questions.\ The research builds on the previous capability maturity assessment of the NSW emergency management sector, completed in 2020, utilising the BNHCRC capability maturity assessment tool2. Outcomes of the research will inform capability prioritisation and investment decision making.

}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-8351, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030}, number = {669}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, pages = {66}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency management sector sits within an environment that is becoming ever more complex, dynamic and uncertain. This is due to factors like a growing population, changing climate, social and cultural change, and the impact of new technologies. At the same time, the nature of how we work, in both paid and voluntary ways, is also changing. Work is greatly influenced by changes in technology and lifestyle, and by increasing levels of interconnectivity and cross-boundary collaboration.

In this dynamic context, planning for the sustainability, effectiveness and wellbeing of the future emergency management workforce takes on considerable importance.

The workforces of Australia{\textquoteright}s fire, emergency services and rural land management agencies (referred to in this report as emergency service organisations) are crucial to Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency management capability. These workforces include career and volunteer members, they also include first responders as well as professional, technical, and administrative support staff and volunteers (hereafter referred to collectively as the emergency service workforce).

This report provides a consolidated, overview picture of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities likely to face emergency service organisations over the coming decade. It is a first step in bringing together the wide range of research that can inform and strengthen strategic workforce planning in these organisations.

The report presents a high-level summary of key trends and developments highlighted in research from beyond the emergency management sphere. It identifies potential implications of these trends and developments for the future emergency service workforce. It also highlights key Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) affiliated research that can assist workforce planners to understand and respond to these implications.

The bulk of the combined emergency service workforce are volunteers. According to the Productivity Commission, there were around 212,293 fire service volunteers and 23,897 state and territory emergency service volunteers across emergency service organisations in Australia in 2017-18 (Commonwealth of Australia, 2019). Volunteers therefore formed around 91\% of the fire service workforce, and 97\% of the state and territory emergency service workforce in that year. Furthermore, given the geographic size, changing risk profile, and demographic shifts in Australia, a heavy reliance on volunteers is likely to continue into the future. As such, volunteers and volunteering issues form a key component of the terrain covered in this report.

While focusing on the emergency service workforce, this report is also based on recognition that the emergency services are part of a wider emergency management workforce that is also diverse and changing. The complete emergency management workforce extends far beyond the emergency services to include the volunteer and paid workforces of not-for-profits active in recovery, local governments, wider community sector and faith-based organisations, government departments, private businesses and more. Increasingly, under the influence of changing community expectations, and policy goals of community resilience, shared responsibility, and clear risk ownership (COAG, 2011; Commonwealth of Australia, 2018), {\textquoteleft}unaffiliated{\textquoteright} community members and groups are also recognised as a valuable part of the emergency management workforce (AIDR, 2017).

Consequently, the future emergency management workforce is not going to be restricted to the affiliated volunteer and paid workforces of formal emergency service organisations. Therefore, this report considers the future emergency service workforce within the context of how it interacts with and forms a part of the wider emergency management workforce.

}, issn = {669}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Jane Chong and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8352, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030: Changing landscape literature review}, number = {732}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Changing Landscape Literature Review collates a high-level evidence base around seven major themes in the changing landscape (i.e., the external environment) that fire, emergency service, and rural land management agencies operate in, and which will shape workforce planning and capability requirements over the next decade. It is an output of the Workforce 2030 project and is one of two literature reviews that summarise the research base underpinning a high-level integrative report of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities, Emergency Services Workforce 2030.

Workforce 2030 aimed to highlight major trends and developments likely to impact the future workforces of emergency service organisations, and their potential implications. The starting point for the project was a question:

What can research from outside the sphere of emergency management add to our knowledge of wider trends and developments likely to shape the future emergency services workforce, and their implications?

The seven themes included in the Changing Landscape Literature Review are: 1) demographic changes, 2) changing nature of work, 3) changes in volunteering, 4) physical technology, 5) digital technology, 6) shifting expectations, and changing risk. A second, accompanying literature review, the Changing Work Literature Review, focuses on another nine themes related to emergency service organisation{\textquoteright}s internal workforce management approaches and working environments.

}, issn = {732}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Jane Chong and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8353, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030: Changing work literature review}, number = {733}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Changing Work Literature Review collates a high-level evidence base around nine major themes related to internal workforce management approaches and working environments of fire, emergency service, and rural land management agencies. It is an output of the Workforce 2030 project and is one of two literature reviews that summarise the research base underpinning a high-level integrative report of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities, Emergency Services Workforce 2030.

Workforce 2030 aimed to highlight major trends and developments likely to impact the future workforces of emergency service organisations, and their potential implications. The starting point for the project was a question:

What can research from outside the sphere of emergency management add to our knowledge of wider trends and developments likely to shape the future emergency services workforce, and their implications?

The Changing Work Literature Review focuses on nine themes relevant to changes that have implications for emergency service organisation{\textquoteright}s internal workforce management approaches and working environments: 1) Recruitment, assessment, and selection, 2) Socialisation and training, 3) Work design, 4) Diversity and inclusion, 5) Managing mental health and wellbeing, 6) Leadership, 7) Change management, 8) Managing an ageing workforce, and 9) Managing volunteer workforces.

}, issn = {733}, author = {Jane Chong and Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8344, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: Views from emergency response volunteer representatives}, number = {731}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents results from a qualitative survey completed by 72 representatives of emergency response volunteer groups and networks in Australia in 2018 and 2019. The purpose of the survey was to explore volunteer representatives{\textquoteright} views about changes in volunteering that have occurred in the past, key volunteering issues today, what a preferred future for emergency response volunteering looks like, and what needs to happen to move towards that future.

The survey was administered by RMIT University researchers as part of a research study for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC called Emergency volunteering 2030: Adapting the sector. {\textquoteleft}Adapting the sector{\textquoteright} is a foresight and scenario-planning study engaging with a wide range of stakeholders to identify the most important trends and uncertainties likely to shape the future of emergency volunteering, and to consider implications of alternative future volunteering scenarios for today{\textquoteright}s decision-making.

This report is one of a series of Environmental Scan reports that capture diverse stakeholder views of the current and emerging landscape of emergency volunteering. The research was approved and overseen by the RMIT University Human Ethics Advisory Network (project number CHEAN B 21057-08/17).

Context

Formal emergency response volunteering is a crucial and central component of the volunteering that supports communities before, during and after emergency events. The 250,000 odd emergency response volunteers form the bulk of the emergency response workforce in Australia. Emergency response volunteering is especially important in rural, regional and remote communities where volunteers provide many essential community services and where emergency response services are heavily, often entirely, volunteer based.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of Australia{\textquoteright}s formal emergency response volunteer capacity is a key issue within the emergency management sector in the face of the changes and pressures in the modern landscape of volunteering. Many emergency management organisations are responding to the changing landscape with new volunteer strategies, models, and management practices but more needs to be done. This report endeavours to reinforce volunteer voices within current research, debates, and decisions regarding strategies for the future of emergency volunteering.

Key implications of this research

The implications provided here are first level observations prepared by the author. They are based on views that were gathered before the 2019/2020 Australian bushfire season began and before the COVID-19 pandemic. More complete implications will also be considered in conversation with key stakeholder groups.

  1. Volunteer representatives depict a situation today in which emergency response volunteering is being squeezed by pressures on three sides (socioeconomic and demographic shifts, government and organisation expectations and requirements, and community needs and expectations), such that the personal burden of volunteering is increasing.
  2. A partial mismatch may be developing between organisational expectations on emergency response volunteers, and the motivations and incentives underpinning this volunteering, which increases the risk of a significant {\textquoteleft}breach of psychological contract{\textquoteright} occurring.
  3. Related to this, responses from some volunteer representatives indicate a widening gap between the goals, values and priorities of some organisations and their volunteers exacerbated by professionalisation and corporatisation. While not a dominant theme in this report, the potential for this gap to continue to grow is concerning.
  4. Particularly younger and female volunteer representatives considered there to be a shortage of innovation and flexibility to address complex and multi-faceted challenges in their organisations, including amongst volunteers themselves. Many identified a need for cultural change to become more open and inclusive.
  5. Most volunteer representatives do not expect that current policy and management approaches will effectively enable vibrant and sustainable emergency response volunteering over the next decade, and they are concerned about the implications of this for communities.
  6. Positively, volunteer representative responses revealed five key foundations for vibrant volunteering over the next decade. They also suggested a wide range of priority actions that could strengthen these foundations. Half also identified initiatives that are doing well addressing current issues.
  7. With longer and fiercer bushfire seasons ahead, the issue of alleviating the personal financial burden of emergency response volunteering into the future needs to be carefully examined. A considerable minority of volunteer representatives anticipated that further remuneration or compensation of some kind could be needed in future.
  8. Volunteer representatives emphasized the importance of stronger governmental leadership and support to move towards a preferred future for emergency response volunteering.

Research approach

This research primarily used a qualitative, key informant survey with 72 representatives from emergency response volunteer groups across Australia. The survey was administered online in late 2018 and early 2019.

All participants represented volunteers from one of three general service categories: 35\% represented Victorian Country Fire Authority volunteers (CFA volunteers), 31\% represented fire service volunteers in other states and territories (including combined services), and 35\% represented volunteers in other emergency response services, (including state emergency services or SES, ambulance, surf life saving, and marine rescue).

}, issn = {731}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-8356, title = {Empowering Indigenous natural hazards management in northern Australia}, journal = {Ambio}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, abstract = {

Northern Australia is prone to recurring severe natural hazards, especially frequent cyclones, flooding, and extensive wildfires. The region is sparsely populated (<< 0.5 persons km-2), with Indigenous (Aboriginal) residents comprising 14\% of the population, and typically the majority in remote regions. Despite national policy committed to addressing emergency management (EM) in vulnerable Indigenous communities, implementation remains unfunded. We synthesise participatory intercultural research conducted over seven years exploring core challenges, opportunities and potential solutions towards developing effective EM partnerships. Similar EM engagement and empowerment issues face First Nations and local communities in many international settings. In search of solutions, we explore developing effective partnership arrangements between EM agencies and culturally diverse Indigenous communities. Observing that government already provides substantial investment in cultural and natural resource management programmes conducted by over 150 Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) nationally, we demonstrate that expansion of IRG roles to incorporate EM community engagement and service delivery can provide multiple cost-effective community and business development benefits for many remote communities.

}, keywords = {Climate change, indigenous people, Natural disasters, participatory action research, risk management, vulnerable communities}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Glenn James and Alan M. Dhamarrandji and Ted Gondarra and Danny Burton and Bevlyne Sithole and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie and Ricky Archer and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-8332, title = {Engaging communities to prepare for natural hazards: a conceptual model}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, abstract = {

Natural hazard preparation by communities reduces disaster-induced physical health problems and adverse experiences, lowers potential for post-traumatic stress disorders, and aids faster recovery. However, approaches to community engagement for preparedness vary widely leaving those responsible confused and often overwhelmed. This study builds on natural hazards behavior, community development, participatory, and codesign research to understand current community engagement approaches in an Australian context. Key principles for engaging communities were operationalized from document analysis and interviews with 30 community engagement practitioners from 25 Australian emergency management agencies. A thematic analysis of the agency documents and interviews led to a visualization of the pathway to community-led preparedness with the iterative community-centered engagement model for preparedness. The model reflects both current practice and aspirations. It contributes theoretically to a collaborative community-led engagement approach for risk personalization and protective action by highlighting the need to develop a deep understanding of the specific features of local communities. The model maps a pathway through different levels of community engagement toward the ultimate aim of a community-led approach to natural hazards preparation. It recognizes the changing circumstances and the situation of communities within their environment, and the barriers and enablers to support community-led preparedness. The model is significant in that it delivers a practical framework for engagement practitioners to build capacity in their communities and support their local communities to prepare for natural hazards and build relational capital for longer-term resilience.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Community-centered, model, Multi-hazard, Preparedness, risk mitigation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05290-2}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-022-05290-2}, author = {Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor and Barbara Ryan} } @article {bnh-8337, title = {Estimating fuel moisture and fire history from Sentinel 2 satellite imagery - Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), the Australian National University (ANU) and Murdoch University have a project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Quantifying seasonal variation in live fuel moisture content, fuel dynamics and the effects of the mosaic of prescribed burning on fire behaviour in near-urban coastal vegetation mosaic{\textquotedblright}

Fuel moisture is a key factor affecting the flammability, fire behaviour,\ damage potential and suppression difficulty of bushfires, and it is an input to fire danger rating and fie behaviour prediction systems.

While there are well-developed models that predict the moisture\ content of dead fuels such as cured grass and forest litter, no models or methods exist for predicting or effectively measuring the\ moisture content of predominately live fuels, such as the shrublands\ of SW-WA.

Within this larger project, Landgate, with the above partners have been working on a sub-project to provide DFES and DBCA with Sentinel 2 satellite imagery derived datasets, aiming to provide an improved capability to understand changes in fuel moisture within the coastal shrubland region, along with a detailed fire history\ spanning\  2016 to June 2021.

}, issn = {727}, author = {Allen, Adrian} } @article {bnh-8374, title = {Firebrand transport from a novel firebrand generator: numerical simulation of laboratory experiments}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {31}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, chapter = {634}, abstract = {

Firebrands (often called embers) increase the propagation rate of wildfires and often cause the ignition and destruction of houses. Predicting the motion of firebrands and the ignition of new fires is therefore of significant interest to fire authorities. Numerical models have the potential to accurately predict firebrand transport. The present study focuses on conducting a set of benchmark experiments using a novel firebrand generator, a device that produces controlled and repeatable sets of firebrands, and validating a numerical model for firebrand transport against this set of experiments. The validation is conducted for the transport of non-burning and burning cubiform firebrand particles at two flow speeds. Four generic drag sub-models used to estimate drag coefficients that are suited for a wide variety of firebrand shapes are verified for their applicability to firebrand transport modelling. The four sub-models are found to be good in various degrees at predicting the transport of firebrand particles.

}, keywords = {contour, contour peak location, drag models, embers, fire dynamics simulator, firebrand generator, Lagrangian particles, lateral spread, short-range firebrands}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21088}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/Fulltext/WF21088}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and A Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8326, title = {Fuels3D - final project report}, number = {723}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Understanding fuel hazard is essential. Effective management of Australia{\textquoteright}s fire prone landscapes relies on accurate consistent and up-to-date fuel characterisation. This project seeks to create a quantitative methodology for calculating fuel hazard, in surface and near surface fuel layers, using affordable consumer grade equipment. It is hoped that this methodology will enhance and supplement existing visual estimation methods used by land management agencies across Australia and demonstrate the utility of moving towards new approaches capable of creating quantitative outputs. The \ method uses a series of systematically acquired photographs to create a 3D point cloud that captures vegetation elements in the surface and near surface vegetation layers and their horizontal and vertical structure. These point clouds are then processed to create the metrics for deriving fuel hazard estimates.

The project methodological tool-chain is divided into five major components:

Each of these methods are embedded in an AWS workflow. The aim being to provide firefighting and land management agencies with an end-to-end semi-automated methodology for collecting, analysing and visualising fuel hazard information.

Although a viable methodology was developed and implemented, results varied by ecosystem. Woodlands, plantations, low open forest, open grasslands and low open shrublands systems all had good image matching and end metric conversion rates (\>90\%). In contrast, closed and other grasslands, shrublands and tall closed forest fuel types all had sample conversion rates below 65\%. The explanation of these large variances in success rates were explored with a number of image acquisition and processing factors identified.

There are many benefits to standardising data collection and harmonising metrics for reporting fuel hazard. Unlike visual assessments the reference photographs and associated point clouds exist in perpetuity and can be re-processed when new techniques emerge for their analysis. Comparing data gathered in different states, territories and jurisdictions also becomes much easier.

Feedback from end users was mixed. While many land managers felt this quantitative methodology had much merit others commented it was too time-consuming to replace current practices. Other (more costly) point cloud collection methods (Terrestrial Laser Scanners and Mobile Laser Scanners (LiDAR) as well as optical depth camera systems) have presented themselves as alternatives during the course of the project. With this in mind the research team has enabled the AWS tool chain to ingest other point cloud data into the fourth and fifth workflow elements. \ 

}, keywords = {fuel hazards, fuels3D, image-based, near-surface, point clouds, surface}, issn = {723}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Johann Tiede and Luke Wallace and Bryan Hally and Mark Robey} } @conference {bnh-8345, title = {Geotechnical seismic isolation system based on rubber-soil mixtures: analytical modelling, experimental testing and field measurement}, booktitle = {20th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The innovative concept of geotechnical seismic isolation (GSI) with the use of a continuous layer of low-modulus
rubber-soil mixtures (RSM) surrounding the foundation of the structure has attracted considerable research interest globally in the
past decade. This paper presents a summary of the recent works completed by the authors. This includes an equivalent-linear lumped-parameter analytical model for explaining the isolation mechanism of the GSI system. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the isolation system has been validated by geotechnical centrifuge modelling. Its dynamic soil-structure interaction behaviour has also
been demonstrated by using the Euroeseistest-EuroProteas model structure (http://euroseisdb.civil.auth.gr). It has been confirmed
that the controlled stiffness and damping of the GSI-RSM foundation layer can reduce the rocking stiffness, thereby enhances the
seismic isolation capability, whilst without having large permanent deformations due to the higher elasticity of the RSM material.
Finally, a series of shaking table tests have also been conducted to examine the effectiveness of GSI-RSM system on isolating
electrical transformers. Generally, it was found in these studies that a 30\% to 60\% reduction of structural demand can be achieved.

}, keywords = {augmented rocking, geotechnical seismic isolation, rubber-soil mixtures, soil-structure interaction, waste tyre}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dimitris-Pitilakis/publication/361275994_20ICSMGE-Full-Paper-final/links/62a840f06886635d5cd89d75/20ICSMGE-Full-Paper-final.pdf}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Kyriazis Pitilakis and Sheng Li and Wen-Yi Hung} } @book {bnh-8330, title = {A guide to non-technical skills in emergency management}, year = {2022}, pages = {58}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A guide to non-technical skills in emergency management\ by Dr Peter Hayes, A/Prof Chris Bearman and Donald Gyles is the first book of its guide developed for emergency management. It was developed as observations from the authors\ indicated the need\ to better manage non-technical skills during emergency and incident\ management; non-technical skills continue to be an area highlighted in\ investigation reports and inquiries; and\ discussions with agency partners indicated a a resource like this book would help to educate practitioners deepen their understanding of the non-technical skills literature.

What is in the book?

A guide to non-technical skills in emergency management\ seeks to:\ introduce and highlight the importance of\ non-technical skills; identify some of the issues\ and pitfalls that can occur; and describe tools\ that can help people better manage non-technical\ skills in operational situations.

The content of the book necessarily draws heavily\ on research conducted during by the\ Improving decision-making in complex multi-team environmentsproject conducted between 2014{\textendash}2021.\ By writing this book the authors hope to provide a\ consistent framework that allows agencies\ to manage the various aspects of non-technical\ skills in a more holistic way. This\ also encourages agencies to adopt a shared\ language to discuss, promote and manage these\ important but often neglected sets of skills.

Who is the book for?

The book is designed for emergency\ management practitioners and instructors\ who wish to understand more about non-technical skills. This may be because they want to improve their own knowledge and practice or be better prepared to coach, mentor or\ instruct others. Learning and development practitioners may find the book a useful reference source for developing non-technical skills training materials or for enhancing these skills within more technically oriented training units (for example, teaching communication\ skills in the context of relay pumping).

The approach

Some readers will be familiar with these skills\ and will have used them working in various\ teams. For others, it may be the first time they\ have encountered them. For the group who
are encountering non-technical skills for the\ first time, the authors have provided a simple overview of each skill and how it can be observed in\ both training and real operations. For the more experienced practitioners of non-technical skills the authors have included a set of information\ and challenges to help people to think more\  deeply about that non-technical skill.

}, isbn = {978-0-6452058-2-4}, issn = {978-0-6452058-2-4}, author = {Peter Hayes and Christopher Bearman and Donald Gyles} } @article {bnh-8338, title = {A guide to reconstructing cropland wildfires {\textendash} data collection, collation and analysis for case study construction}, number = {729}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This guide is intended to provide the fire behaviour analyst tasked with preparing a case study of a cropland wildfire with the basic set of methods, tools and information necessary to create a meaningful summary of the behaviour and spread of that fire. While the information and examples provided are specific to the case of wildfires burning in cropland fuels, the methods and tools are such that they can be applied to wildfires burning in any vegetation type given due consideration of the differences in the applicable factors and conditions.

This guide provides background information on the importance of undertaking case studies of wildfires, particularly across the broad range of wildfire types and intensities, for developing a case study library from which a large range of lessons may be learned{\textemdash}those immediately related to the incident itself but also those that may be gained from a perspective of time and space later.

A detailed discussion of fire behaviour in cropland fuels and the factors that affect fire perimeter shape and growth are discussed. The effects of suppression efforts, their effectiveness and likely impact on fire shape and spread are also discussed. Understanding the fuels and landscape features across which a cropland wildfire burns, in particular those non-crop fuels such as roadside verges and grazing paddocks, and their condition and state, are critical to interpreting observed fire behaviour and fire propagation across the landscape. Similarly, detailed information on the weather driving the wildfire is critical to understanding how and why a fire spread the way it did.\  These data can be divided into two groups{\textemdash}those that should be collected during the fire, such as observations of fire behaviour and spotting, and those that can be collected after the fire, such as fire progression and burnt area and crop status and distribution. Assessment of the reliability of the data collected for the purpose of compiling a case study is essential to providing context and informing assessment of dependability of data used for later analysis.

Finally, the guide provides suggestions for documenting the fire event, building the chronology and development of the incident, and writing a case study that is pithy and to the point. Checklists of essential information to be collected during and immediately after the fire (including sample fire spread observation forms), suggested observations to be collected from first attack personnel and prompter questions for when doing firefighter debriefs and interviews of eyewitnesses are also provided.

}, issn = {729}, author = {Sullivan, Andrew and Cruz, Miguel G. and Matt P Plucinski} } @article {bnh-8318, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact {\textendash} final project report}, number = {721}, year = {2022}, month = {02/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Extreme weather often occurs at relatively small scales.\  Accurate forecasts and understanding of such small-scale processes require high-resolution modelling.\  Forecasts are especially useful in severe weather events, since they play an essential role in allowing communities, industry and emergency services to prepare for and mitigate the impacts. Because forecasts are inherently uncertain in the severity, location and duration of an event, preparation needs to be more widespread than the eventual impact {\textendash} but this over-preparation comes at a cost.\  Detailed prediction of the probabilities of severe impacts would avoid the risk of failing to alert areas with the chance of an impact, while minimising the cost of over-warning.\ 

This project has studied the dynamics, predictability, and processes of severe weather, including fire weather, with the purpose of understanding phenomena with severe impact, improving forecasts of severe weather, and better depicting forecast uncertainty in these events. These goals help facilitate better risk management, improve user preparation, reduce adverse outcomes, and enable more effective mitigation.

The project has featured two main strands.

The first strand comprised case studies of severe weather events. For these, we have combined high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with a wide range of in situ and remotely sensed observations, to better understand both the high-impact event in question, and other events of that class. All except one of the studies used a version of the Bureau{\textquoteright}s operational NWP system, ACCESS. The events comprised two severe mid-latitude systems (an east coast low, and a severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak), two severe fires, and a tropical cyclone, thereby covering the gamut of severe weather in Australia. Two of the studies featured ensemble simulation, with the east coast low case being the first time that ensemble ACCESS had been run at this resolution within the Bureau and foreshadowing the Bureau{\textquoteright}s new operational ensemble capability. Each case discovered important fine-scale features that contributed to the severity of the event, advancing our knowledge base and ability to respond.

The second strand studied two important phenomena associated with bushfire plumes: the formation of pyrocumulus clouds and ember transport. In each case, we began with idealised, high-resolution simulations of plumes using a large-eddy model. We used this technology, in which the model is run on a 50-m grid, to capture the most energetic size range of the turbulent eddies that are prominent in fire plumes. We found that the mean travel distance of firebrands depends mainly on wind speed and fire intensity, but the spread in the landing positions shifts from being substantially crosswind at light winds, to dominantly along-wind at high winds. This spread is greatly increased by the turbulence in the plume, and the maximum spotting distance can be more than double the mean for this reason.

We also used our plume modelling to study pyrocumulus clouds and analysed the processes that lead to pyrocumulus, with special attention on the relative importance of moisture from two sources, the atmosphere and combustion, and showed that the latter is negligible except in very dry environments. This somewhat controversial result has been confirmed by a conceptual study of the thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation.

These initial studies laid a firm theoretical framework for our subsequent development of tools to provide predictions in a form, and at a speed, that is suitable for operational use.

For moist pyroconvection, we developed a paradigm to combine the necessary meteorological and fire information, the pyrocumulonimbus firepower threshold, or PFT. The PFT is defined as the power output from a fire at which pyroCb will begin to form and depends solely on meteorological parameters. Fires hotter than the PFT will initiate pyroCb, according to this paradigm, and cooler fires do not. We also developed a way of computing an approximate PFT from either NWP or observed data and tested this in real time during the extraordinarily severe 2019-20 fire season. The results of that trial were outstandingly successful, with nearly all the 30-odd events being captured, and the forecast guidance for non-events was also reported to have been extremely valuable. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC have provided us with utilisation funding to take this tool another step closer to operational use. The tool has also attracted significant international interest, particularly given the recent spate of events in the USA. We have begun a utilisation project to take the PFT work further, detailed in this report.

For ember transport, we developed a simple model to predict plume-dominated transport, incorporating well-known plume modelling concepts, a model of plume turbulence, and a probabilistic model of ember transport within and beneath the plume. The results agree well with our large eddy-based simulations. This model was coupled to CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Spark fire-spread model and tested on the Kilmore East fire of Black Saturday with excellent results. The combination with Spark will make this tool suitable for future operational use, and the ember transport model could also, of course, be coupled to other fire spread simulators, including the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire. Working with CSIRO and AFAC, we are putting the necessary things in place to be able to convert the prototype implementation of the ember transport parameterisation in Spark, into an operationally robust and supported system. This will both facilitate further research, and provide the framework to allow users to learn, understand and apply the system.

The value of case studies has been reinforced by our being asked to undertake five case studies of severe fires from the 2019-20 summer. This work will be done jointly with our colleagues from the CRC Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project, who further developed the ACCESS-Fire model. We expect that this work will provide an impetus to further develop and streamline that capability.

We are also very excited about the potential of the PFT and ember transport tools. While both are relatively early in their development, with the PFT being the more mature, each is presently producing very encouraging results. We are also very conscious that each is raising further scientific questions as they address others, and that both are at the beginning of a steep development and refinement curve that we expect will further improve their accuracy and utility. We are confident that further scientific investment will yield substantial dividends.

}, keywords = {community, Impact, prediction, severe, weather}, issn = {721}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and Ching, Eng and Robert Fawcett and Serena Schroeter and W. Thurston and David Wilke and Dragana Zovko-Rajak} } @article {bnh-8363, title = {Indigenous-informed disaster recovery: Addressing collective trauma using a healing framework}, journal = {Progress in Disaster Science}, volume = {16}, year = {2022}, month = {12/2022}, abstract = {

Indigenous knowledges are increasingly recognised for their value in disaster resilience, with particular attention to\ traditional ecological knowledges. Yet the expansive and holistic\ worldviews\ of Indigenous peoples offer an even broader set of knowledges and perspectives, such as the field of Indigenous healing, that are highly relevant to systemic challenges in disaster resilience and recovery. This theoretical paper explores the potential for an Indigenous-informed healing framework to address collective trauma from disasters. It begins by addressing key matters of concern in knowledge sharing between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples. It then considers Indigenous healing as an international field of knowledge and practice, distilling consistent features across a range of texts. These shared features in Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} healing traditions include: holistic approaches to wellbeing; social rather than solo processes; identifying and treating the roots of trauma; strengths-based and community-led processes; the need for socially and culturally safe spaces; and Indigenous notions of responsibility, justice and forgiveness. We then analyse points of difference and resonance with disaster recovery literature, in a novel effort to bring the fields of Indigenous healing and disaster recovery together through respectful and thoughtful dialogue. In doing so, this paper seeks to inform much-needed efforts to enhance culturally responsive practices in working with Indigenous peoples affected by disasters. The exploration also identifies that a healing-informed approach to disaster recovery offers opportunities to better support all communities affected by disasters, by unsettling assumptions and enabling holistic understandings of complex interactions between multiple disasters, community contexts and systemic inequities. To meet the many challenges facing the sector now and into the future, innovations fostered by such cross-disciplinary explorations are crucial.

}, keywords = {disaster, Healing, indigenous, recovery, resilience, Trauma}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100257}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061722000448}, author = {Phoebe Quinn and Bhiamie Williamson and Lisa Gibbs} } @article {bnh-8321, title = {Informing post-fire recovery planning of northern NSW rainforests}, number = {721}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = { Melbourne}, abstract = {

In historic times rainforests have comprised less than 2\% of the total forested area of NSW (Baur 1987) yet they have played a pivotal role in the states early timber industry, and the development of conservation policy, and are the only plant community in NSW to have been included in the name of a World Heritage property. The Gondwanan rainforests evolved in an environment of dependable rainfall and low fire frequency. They have persisted through multiple climate oscillations and glacial/inter-glacial cycles in refugia scattered through the Great Escarpment uplift landform. They now represent a collection of relictual species whose origins can be traced to the Eocene Epoch 55-37 million years ago when cool temperate taxa such as Nothofagus first appears in the fossil record.

In northern New South Wales, temperate rainforests are typically considered to be vulnerable to climate-change related natural hazards such as extended spring droughts and wildfires. Numerous reviews predict that extreme climatic events are likely to increase in frequency and/or intensity in coming decades (CSIRO 2019, 2020) and that wildfires will become larger, more intense, and more frequent. The vulnerability of temperate rainforests to fire is assumed to be the result of their limited intrinsic post-fire regenerative capacity, their susceptibility to canopy scorch and bark damage, and extrinsic factors such as their landscape position as patches within extensive areas of elevated fuel hazard in wet sclerophyll forest and woodland plant communities. The impacts of wildfires on temperate rainforests are heightened because wildfires are naturally infrequent, the vegetation is poorly adapted to fire, and fuel biomass is abundant and contiguous in the surrounding landscape.

During the 2019/20 wildfire season, 18.1\% of the extent of NSW{\textquoteright}s rainforest vegetation classes experienced either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire, a scale un-anticipated in earlier land management risk planning. While the proportion of each class varied, the greatest impacts occurred in Dry Rainforest and Northern Warm Temperate Rainforest. Across the Gondwana Rainforest of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests), 16 of the 28 reserves in the NSW section saw some fire impacts. This resulted in 8.6\% of the 112,145 ha of rainforest in these reserves experiencing either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire. The extent of the fire impacts was greatest in the Hastings-Macleay, New England, and Washpool-Gibraltar Range sections of the Gondwana Rainforests. The focus of the current study is the Hastings-Macleay section.

The 2019/20 wildfire season coincided with the lowest annual rainfall recorded in the Hastings-Macleay study area since local records commenced in 1959. Soil moisture deficits in rainforest were at their lowest recorded levels at the end of an extended spring drought in northern NSW. An analysis using data from a decade of soil moisture monitoring indicated that when soil moisture in rainforest reached 10-20\%, the rainforests become susceptible to fuel ignition and sustaining a wildfire.

In November 2019 multiple ignitions and running wildfires were occurring across northern NSW, and fire-fighting resources were prioritised to life and property protection. On November 9th 2019, an unprecedented seventeen wildfires were at Emergency Warning level on the same day in NSW, fire behaviour was erratic and rainforests were igniting and sustaining running fires. The wildfires impacted directly on long-term research plots established in 1959 in Werrikimbe and Willi National Parks in landscapes with extensive localised climate monitoring equipment. Resources were rapidly deployed within weeks of the wildfire impacting the research infrastructure to capture key elements of fire behaviour and commence post-fire assessments. With the financial support of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and NSW NPWS, citizen science volunteers began to measure the impacts of the wildfires and describe the recovery trajectory of the rainforest stands within the parks.

The long-term research plots provide a baseline to understanding pre-fire rainforest stand dynamics and condition. The 60 years of accumulated data highlighted the high biomass, slow growth rates, and highly episodic nature of tree regeneration in these rainforests. Annualized tree mortality was less than 1\%, and canopy dieback was associated with previous selective harvesting in the 1960s. Fine fuel biomass is low and inputs are strongly seasonal. Basal fire scars were present on trees across the stands surveyed prior to the 2019/20 wildfire season, indicating past wildfires had occurred in these rainforests during the past century, and it appears the majority of established trees were resilient to their effects. Evidence from char heights indicates the predominant fire behaviour experienced by the larger rainforest trees is low-intensity litter fires that progress slowly through the rainforest stands. This was corroborated in discussions with fire managers who had witnessed fires across multiple northern NSW rainforest reserves. Evidence from archival fire reporting and mapping suggests that the typical fire season in the 1950s peaked in November and now peaks two months earlier. These rainforests are approaching the driest months in early spring when lightning ignitions are also at their seasonal maximum.

Wildfires entered rainforest from front or flank spread leading to attrition of trees on rainforest margins. Monitoring dominant trees for 12 years in smaller rainforest stands demonstrated that they can tolerate multiple fires until their structural integrity weakens and fails. In 2019/20 ember attack was widespread in rainforest, but generally led to the ignition of small, localised areas (\<100 m2) or of individual trees. Mortality rates associated with the wildfires were 20-30\% across all tree species, with the proportion increasing with the severity of the wildfire event. This figure may prove to be an underestimate as lagged tree mortality effects from wildfires have been reported elsewhere for rainforests. The majority of burnt trees regenerated with basal coppicing. Seedling regeneration of tree species was infrequent due to the lack of a soil or canopy seed bank. Coppicing was more abundant where fire severity was low. Large trees with well-developed buttress hollows and scars were more likely to ignite due to the accumulation of dry wood and fuel at their base compared to smaller trees. Larger, older trees that had more pre-existing fire scars were more likely to die and collapse after burning. This is potentially an age effect where older and larger (diameter and height) trees have been subjected to more fire-induced wounds and hollows.

The temperate rainforests of northern NSW have been subject to wildfires in the past, and have a level of resilience to them. However, the susceptibility of the canopy dominant rainforest trees to basal wounding and collapse is a concern due to the longevity and age of these trees, their role in maintaining the rainforest microclimate, and their importance as habitat to a very diverse cargo of epiphytic bryophytes. Options to manage wildfire risk using conventional zoning and fuel hazard management may be limited. Fuel hazard was not particularly high during the 2019/20 wildfire season in the Hastings-Macleay section of Gondwana Rainforests, with most areas burnt in 2019 also having been burnt in 2013. Regardless, landscape-level fuel hazard management will not address the risk of individual mature rainforest tree ignition during conditions of significant ember attack when rainforest fine fuel biomass is naturally low.

A range of proposals are made to improve the knowledge base to better inform the spatially explicit wildfire risk assessment process trialled following the 2019/20 wildfire season. The central recommendation is the scoping of a systematic Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting (MER) system for the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests) that focuses on establishing a baseline to track trends in the nominated World Heritage outstanding universal values or criteria. The system will require an integrated remote sensing and ground-based plot monitoring approach stratified by rainforest type and location. The monitoring plots established for this study can be readily integrated into the proposed MER system, and can be used to test the significance of ongoing or lagged tree mortality and to validate models of post-wildfire tree mortality and regeneration.

The current study has informed post-fire recovery planning by assessing the significance of the impacts of the 2019/20 wildfire season on rainforest stand structure, composition, tree mortality, and regeneration strategies. While the field measurements were in progress, recovery planning workshops hosted by the Commonwealth and NSW governments were attended and preliminary results were provided. The availability of existing long-term rainforest monitoring experiments dating from the 1950s, sections of which were burnt in November 2019, was critical to providing preliminary results within months of the fire event (Peacock 2020) to inform post-fire recovery planning. This outcome alone underscores the critical role long-term ecological monitoring systems have in rapidly supporting land managers information needs when responding to widespread natural hazards such as landscape-scale wildfires.

}, keywords = {nsw, Planning, post-fire, rainforests, recovery}, issn = {721}, author = {Ross Peacock and Baker, Patrick} } @article {bnh-8335, title = {Investigating the suitability of aviation tracking data for use in bushfire suppression effectiveness research}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Aircraft are an important part of bushfire suppression and their use is increasing. They were used heavily during the 2019/20 {\textquotedblleft}Black Summer{\textquotedblright} bushfire season in NSW and several inquiries have highlighted the need for research into their effectiveness.

Tracking equipment is becoming routinely deployed on aircraft and there is increasing availability of high-quality ancillary data such as aerial imagery and fire severity mapping. These allow detailed analyses of aircraft activities. However, the usefulness of the data needs to be evaluated, and the analysis needs to be informed by information about the tasking objectives of the aircraft and whether those objectives were met.

This project provides an initial investigation into the process of evaluating aerial suppression using these new data sources and interviews with personnel involved in the suppression activities.

Firebombing event data (drops/fills) from the 2019/2020 bushfire season in NSW from the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC){\textquoteright}s Arena database was provided by the NSW Rural Fire Service. This data included ~70000 aircraft suppression drop locations and times from aircraft that included helicopters (mainly large and medium helitaks), Single-Engine Air Tankers and Large Air Tankers. As an initial step, we examined the data for completeness, accuracy and errors, and described the data contents. This data was missing for most of the aircraft known to be dropping on the fires, especially the smaller ones. The type of drop (gel, water, retardant) was unknown in most cases, the quantity dropped was unknown in 45\% of cases, and the location for the end of drops was often unreliable.

We then tested methods to identify drop objectives based on relationships between drops data and other spatial data including building locations and weather. Using a combination of automated pattern matching and manual checking, the data can be used to identify cases where the objective was initial attack, extinguishing spot fires, asset protection, pre-emptive laying of retardant lines and direct attack. There were a few cases where the success or failure of the objective could be assessed purely with the spatial data. We also explored two particular analytical methods for determining objectives. First, we compared the distribution of Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI, fire weather) during a fire and for the drops within that fire. This identified several fires for which a large proportion of the drops were more likely to be during extreme fire weather even though extreme weather was rare in that fire. Second, we compared the distribution of distance to houses between all parts of the fire and the drops at that fire. Here we found many fires where the drops were clustered closer to houses than if the drops were (hypothetically) spread evenly across the fire ground. These analyses are preliminary but show great potential.

We conducted 10 interviews with personnel who worked as Air Attack Supervisors during the 2019/20 season. Interviewees were knowledgeable and experienced, and expressed the view that the aerial program could be improved with further knowledge sharing and training. They provided a lot of general information about objectives, how they learned during the season, their views on limitations in aerial suppression, and their own capacity to document the process.

The interviews also highlighted several operational issues that warrant more investigation using a large number of aviation specialists and more specific questions. Chief among these are:

We conducted eight detailed case studies where there were interesting features in the drop data and insightful comments from the interviewees. These were particular days at a particular part of a fire. They included one example with multiple objectives playing out as one failed and the fire spread changed, several where property protection was the dominant objective (largely successful), one on spot fires, and two initial attacks, of which one succeeded and the other failed.\  The case studies demonstrate the power of the approach where spatial data and interview interpretation are combined.

The air drop data has the potential to enable deep analyses of aircraft use and effectiveness during real bushfire responses, especially when combined with other contextual information, such as objectives and environmental conditions. This will require more matching of the data to interviews to determine whether the drop data can be used in this way. We have started this process in this report, identifying clear clusters of activity related to weather and distance to houses, and cross-checking with interviews in the case study, and in some of these cases, the success could be judged. In order to realise the full potential of this approach, the completeness and accuracy of the drop data should be improved and interviews should become a routine part of the seasonal review process.

}, issn = {725}, author = {Heather Simpson and Michael Storey and Matt P Plucinski and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-8339, title = {Leading through crisis: the leadership experience of Major General Alan Stretton}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {37}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, pages = {78-80}, abstract = {

Catastrophes present leaders with complex and significant challenges that they have not previously experienced nor have had time to deeply analyse. Leaders must collaborate and demonstrate agility. To develop such leadership skills, it is useful to reflect on the experiences of people who have faced catastrophe before. This paper examines the leadership of Major General Alan Stretton AO, CBE in the aftermath of Cyclone Tracy in 1974. Alan Stretton{\textquoteright}s personal accounts and archival interviews with other leaders were reviewed as source material. These showed that he demonstrated decisiveness and courage and {\textquoteleft}over-responded{\textquoteright} if necessary. He worked collaboratively with community leaders and acted in a confident, empathetic and reassuring manner. He led with agility and with a focus on an overarching plan. He prioritised communication with the community and negotiated political challenges. Lessons from this experience can help to guide leaders who may be called on to lead during times of future disaster events.

}, keywords = {catastrophe, collaboration, community, disaster, leaders}, doi = {http://www.doi.org/10.47389/37.2.74}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/9299/ajem-19-2022-02.pdf}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @book {bnh-8323, title = {Making Sense of Natural Disasters: The Learning Vacuum of Bushfire Public Inquiries}, year = {2022}, pages = {135}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

This book examines the ways in which emergency management organizations make sense and learn from natural disasters. Examining recent bushfires in Australia, it demonstrates that whilst public inquiries that follow such disasters can be important for learning and change, they have ultimately created a learning vacuum insofar as their recommendations repeat themselves. This has kept governments and society focused on learning lessons about the past, rather than for the future. Accordingly, this book recommends a new approach to sensemaking and learning focused on prospective planning rather than retrospective recommendations, and where planning for the future is seen as the shared responsibility of the government, society, and the emergency management community in Australia and beyond.

}, keywords = {bushfires public reviews, governance, Natural disasters, organizational learning, public inquiries, risk management}, isbn = {978-3-030-94778-1}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94778-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-94778-1$\#$about}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-8305, title = {Mapping how outputs from various Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects could be combined to address the issue of how to best manage fuel to reduce bushfire risk into the future}, number = {718}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project reviewed all of the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC (CRC) publications hosted on the CRC website to identify outputs that could be of interest in addressing the issue of how to best manage fuel to reduce bushfire risk into the future.

We identified 12 projects part of five research clusters involving a wide range of actors: Prescribed burning and catchment management, Economics and strategic decisions, Bushfire predictive services, Governance and institutional knowledge, Understanding and enhancing resilience which could offer potential synergies with the Mechanical Fuel Load Reduction (MFLR) Utilisation Project. The most relevant outputs were summarised in conceptual diagrams (mind-maps), and possible utilisation for the MFLR milestones was highlighted in each section.

}, issn = {718}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8360, title = {Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019{\textendash}2020) fires}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science}, volume = {72}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, pages = {139-163}, chapter = {139}, abstract = {

The spring and summer of 2019{\textendash}2020 (Black Summer) saw the largest and most significant bushfire outbreak recorded in eastern Australia. In Victoria, the fires ran from mid-November through early autumn. In this paper, we use a high-spatial and temporal resolution 48-year fire weather re-analysis data set (VicClim5) to describe fire weather and vertical wind and stability profiles for five significant high Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) fire events and compare these with detailed fire reconstructions. A feature of several of these fires was very active overnight fire spread driven by topographically enhanced low-level jets and low fine fuel moisture content. The FFDI values on these nights were either the highest or near highest on record in the 48-year data set. We describe cases of lightning ignition, prefrontal fire spread and two cases of post-frontal fire spread {\textendash} one into Mallacoota on the early morning of 31 December 2019 and the other a northward overnight run down the Buffalo Valley on 4{\textendash}5 January 2020. On two of the days studied there were complex wind changes associated with the inland penetration of low-level south-easterly winds under the influence of locally generated pressure gradients. An elevated hot, dry mixed layer above these shallow layers also played an important role. On one occasion there is some evidence of possible mountain-wave modulation of surface wind flows. These events demonstrate a range of features of the fire weather and climate in eastern Victoria and the utility of VicClim5 in 3-dimensional climatological analyses.

}, keywords = {Black Summer bushfires, climatology of extremes, cold fronts, eastern Victorian fire weather, elevated mixed layers, low level jets, overnight fire spread, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22011}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/ES/ES22011}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Owen Salkin and Matthew Fearon and Sarah Harris and Timothy Brown and Hauss Reinbold} } @article {bnh-8304, title = {Opportunities for alternative fuel load reduction approaches - summary report}, number = {719}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe and effective application of this method is likely to be hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This project explored the use of experts{\textquoteright} knowledge and the UNHaRMED Decision Support System (DSS) framework (an integrated spatio-temporal model for analysing natural hazard risk within urban and rural environments) to assess the opportunities and risks associated with different approaches to reducing bushfire risk via fuel management.

This project identified:

This report presents the major findings from the Fuel Load Reduction Utilisation Project and proposes future research directions identified by end-users, building on this project{\textquoteright}s results. The proposed projects could help develop policies and strategies for reducing risk in emerging bushfire risk areas at the State and national scale by offering a range of fuel management activities adapted to specific regional conditions, which could change over time.

}, issn = {719}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Roel Vanhout and Tim McNaught and Mike Wouters and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8328, title = {Post-fire impact assessment of Tasmanian sphagnum bogs}, number = {724}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the summer of 2015-2016 several large dry lightning storms ignited wildfires that burned across Western Tasmanian landscapes desiccated by the combination of severe spring drought and above average summer temperatures. Approximately 20 000 ha of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area burnt including Sphagnum moss communities, or {\textquoteleft}sphagnum bogs{\textquoteright}, and other significant areas of high conservation value Gondwanan refugia. The scale of the fires prompted the Tasmanian government to fund research in techniques to rehabilitate fire-impacted Gondwanan refugia, including sphagnum bogs, in the Lake Mackenzie area of the Northern Central Plateau. A key step in sphagnum bog restoration is the development of rapid, broad-scale, cost-effective and low impact survey techniques to identify sites in need of rehabilitation. We trialled unmanned aerial systems (UAS) with visible spectrum sensor technology to map fire extent and severity.\  Three sphagnum bogs were used to develop an ENVI classification workflow based on a training data set of burn severity categories and other ecological surface cover measurements to map burn severity.\  These maps were validated using ocular assessments of ground cover and burn severity in pre-existing permanently marked quadrats. We found poor to moderate agreement between the UAS and field fire severity with considerable variation amongst the sampled bogs. Total burnt area sphagnum bog maps were then produced by combining burnt severity categories for five bogs, including the three used for fire severity mapping, The congruence between Sphagnum burn extent maps with field data collected by differential Global Positioning System was found to range from substantial to poor according to Cohen{\textquoteright}s Kappa index. Multivariate analysis of the quadrat ground cover assessments showed that high grass cover was most strongly associated with poor field validation agreement (low Kappa scores), whereas acceptable field validation agreement (high Kappa scores), were associated with high cover of Sphagnum. A major constraint of this study was the two-year time gap between the fire and remote sensing mapping and field survey. Higher accuracy fire severity mapping and area burned mapping would be possible if imagery was acquired immediately after a fire event. In light of our findings, we provide recommendations for future UAS surveys of fire impacted sphagnum bogs, the most critical of which is acquiring remote sensing and field data in the same growing season as the fire.

}, keywords = {bogs, impact assessment, post-fire, sphagnum, Tasmanian}, issn = {724}, author = {Morgan Harding and Darren Turner and Grant Williamson and Scott Nichols and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8322, title = {Recognising and measuring competency in natural hazard preparation: A preparedness competency index}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {73}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, abstract = {

With weather-related natural hazards increasing in number and severity, it is more important than ever for communities to prepare for all types of hazards. However, the literature does not reveal what such preparedness looks like {\textendash} how much preparation is enough and, conversely, how low levels of preparation can be easily recognised by emergency agencies. This study maps Australian emergency agency understanding of competencies that are needed by individuals and communities for effective preparation.

Using in-depth semi-structured interviews of 30 emergency agency, local council and not-for-profit organisation staff from all Australian states, participants identified a range of community and individual features that they had seen in un-prepared and well-prepared communities and which they believed were key competencies for protective action. These competencies were then mapped against participants{\textquoteright} perceptions of five different levels of preparation, resulting in a Preparedness Competency Index that allows agencies to benchmark preparation in communities, as well as to recognise when lack of preparation competency leaves groups vulnerable.

}, keywords = {community, Competency, Natural hazards, Preparedness, protective action}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102882}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420922001017?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-8341, title = {Recovery Capitals: a collaborative approach to post-disaster guidance}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {37}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, abstract = {

Knowledge from past disasters can inform and support recovery, yet these insights are not always readily accessible to recovery practitioners. To bridge this gap, effective collaboration is needed to produce practical, evidence-based resources. This was the focus of the Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project, a collaboration between researchers and practitioners across Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. This paper presents a critical case study of the participatory processes involved in developing a recovery capitals framework and associated resources. The framework is based on an existing Community Capitals Framework that emphasises the social, natural, political, built, human, financial and cultural strengths and resources within communities. The Recovery Capitals Framework arose through applying the Community Capitals Framework to disaster recovery, with conceptual adaptations to reflect shared values, diverse perspectives and collective knowledge of recovery. The lessons learnt from this international and researcher-practitioner collaboration are analysed, and the application of principles of equity, inclusion and community-led recovery is evaluated. Shortcomings and innovations are examined in how resources were tailored to the cultural contexts of each country, and reflections are presented from the perspectives Indigenous and non-Indigenous contributors. These lessons can inform future collaborations that support inclusive, holistic and evidence-informed recovery efforts.

}, keywords = {capital, community, evidence-informed, framework, human capital, recovery}, doi = {10.47389/37.2.52}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2022-recovery-capitals-a-collaborative-approach-to-post-disaster-guidance/}, author = {Phoebe Quinn and Lisa Gibbs and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and David Johnston and John Richardson and Andrew Coghlan} } @inbook {bnh-8362, title = {Reimagining Education in a Pandemic: Children and Young People as Powerful Educators}, booktitle = {COVID-10 and Education in the Global North}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, chapter = {Reimagining Education in a Pandemic: Children and Young People as Powerful Educators}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

COVID-19 has caused unprecedented levels of worldwide disruption to the education of children and young people, who have been among the worst affected by the socio-economic impacts of the global pandemic. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that children and young people are not passive victims. Conversely, during lockdown it has been impossible to ignore the ways in which so many children and young people have emerged as powerful educators. Our youngest citizens have been at the forefront of protests regarding Black Lives Matter and systemic racism, climate change and, in the UK, class-based bias in examination results during COVID-19. The lessons they have taught us have resulted in policy change at local and national levels and created conversations across the generations about desirable futures and the importance of making change happen.

This chapter uses examples from a Social Justice Makerspace in a New York City school and a Student-led Education for Disaster Risk Reduction in Naarm (Melbourne), Australia, to explore how more relational, creative and democratic approaches to education can continue to recognise and support children and young people{\textquoteright}s power to initiate, develop and lead change and create more inclusive, socially just futures for us all.

}, keywords = {student-led; relational; democratic; creative practices; protests; policy change; social justice makerspace; New York; disaster risk reduction; Melbourne; COVID-19}, issn = {978-3-031-02464-1}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02469-6_1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-02469-6_1$\#$citeas}, author = {Deborah Ralls and Lou Lahana and Briony Towers and Leigh Johnson} } @article {bnh-8355, title = {Representing vapour and capillary rise from the soil improves a leaf litter moisture model}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {612}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, abstract = {

Litter moisture content plays a critical role in fire danger rating systems and forest ecosystems. Soil moisture content has been proposed to affect litter moisture due to vapour flux and capillary rise from the soil. However, few models consider soil water content when predicting litter moisture, and to our knowledge, no model includes capillary fluxes. In this study, we represented soil moisture coupling in a physics-based litter moisture prediction model by describing the vapour and capillary fluxes from the soil to litter. We aimed to evaluate if litter moisture predictions can be improved by incorporating the hydrological process at the soil-litter interface and explored the possible role of soil moisture in litter moisture simulations. Three model versions were compared against observations at a dry and wet experimental site in Australia: the original physics-based model, a model version extended with soil vapour flux only, and a version that incorporates both soil vapour flux and capillary rise. The simulation results suggest that soil moisture considerably influences litter moisture through soil vapour flux and capillary rise, which can lead to more than 10\% of oven-dried weight, particularly under wet soil conditions. The corresponding model showed the best performance in comparison with field observations. The contribution of upward soil moisture fluxes was small after long dry and warm periods but noticeable during more moist periods. Further research is needed to evaluate the revised model for a broader range of weather, soil and litter conditions.

}, keywords = {capillary rise, fuel moisture content, leaf litter, Soil moisture, vapour flux}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128087}, url = {sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002216942200662X}, author = {Li Zhao and Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-8373, title = {A review of firebrand studies on generation and transport}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {134}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, abstract = {

Firebrands play a vital role in the propagation of fire by starting new fires called spotfires, ahead of the fire front during wildfire progression. Firebrands are a harbinger of damage to infrastructure; their effects particularly pose a threat to people living within the wildland-urban-interface, they can hamper the suppression of wildfire and block evacuation routes for communities and emergency services. Short-range firebrands which travel along with the wind, with little or no lofting, are particularly crucial in increasing fire front propagation and damaging structures situated close to the wildland-urban interface. In the Daylesford fire of 1962 in Australia, massive short-range spotting (the process of spot fire ignition and merging of spots caused by firebrands) occurred in the eucalyptus forest and increased the rate of fire spread by roughly three times more than that computed using an operational fire model. Similarly, long-range firebrands can be transported by the fire plume and ambient wind and can ignite new fire up to 30{\textendash}40\ km from the source of fire as observed in the 2009 Black Saturday fire in Australia.

A large amount of experimental research has been conducted to quantify the effects of firebrands, to develop empirical models and to benchmark results for\ Computational Fluid Dynamic\ (CFD) based fire model validations. In recent years, some CFD models have been studied primarily for their validation purposes. These studies have been reviewed here. To perform useful\ parametric studies\ of firebrand transport using CFD models as well as further development of CFD models, more targeted studies need to be conducted.

}, keywords = {firebrand generator, Firebrand spotting, Firebrand transport, wildfires}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2022.103674}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711222001515}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Catherine Sullivan and Amila Wickramasinghe and Matthew Kyng and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8340, title = {Setting expectations during volunteer recruitment and the first day experience: a preregistered experimental test of the met expectations hypothesis}, journal = {European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, abstract = {

In a preregistered experimental study that draws from the met expectations hypothesis, we examined how volunteer recruitment messaging can shape expectations of new volunteers prior to their first day, and whether meeting or failing to meet expectations on the first day would affect satisfaction. By experimentally manipulating a recruitment poster, we set either a transactional (i.e., by volunteering, one can learn new skills) or a relational expectation (i.e., one can work in a team). Participants then viewed an experimentally determined vignette that depicted their first day as a volunteer as either being rich in, or bereft of, experiences of teamwork and learning new skills (crossed). We found that recruitment messaging strongly impacted the participants{\textquoteright} expectations of the volunteering experience prior to their first day. Neither meeting expectations regarding teamwork nor learning new skills played a statistically significant causal role in determining satisfaction. By contrast, richer experiences notwithstanding expectations, and especially those pertaining to learning new skills, were more important determinants of satisfaction. Polynomial regression analyses supported the experimental results, namely that experiences far more strongly determined satisfaction than did expectations. We conclude that providing richer experiences to volunteers is more important than expectation management for volunteer satisfaction.

}, keywords = {experiment, met expectations, preregistered, recruitment, volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1359432X.2022.2070478}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.1080/1359432X.2022.2070478?needAccess=true}, author = {Patrick Dunlop and Djurre Holtrop and Darja Kragt and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Hawa Muhammad Farid and Aleksandra Luksyte} } @article {bnh-8343, title = {Spotfire utilisation project: implementation of the VLS filter}, number = {730}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The aim of this research was to produce an operational tool to assist fire agency personnel in assessing the potential for extreme bushfire development. Specifically, this work{\textquoteright}s intention was to aid in the identification of regions of the landscape that are prone to mass spotting and other dynamic fire behaviour associated with vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS). The research was divided into three phases: 1) calibration of the slope scale to each DEM, 2) creation of the filter (first and second order) and finally refinement of the filter and, 3) develop training material and ensure filters and related documents are distributed to relevant personnel.

The first-order and second-order wind-terrain filter enables the user to identify parts of the terrain which are susceptible to VLS through its established association with steep or broken leeward facing terrain elements. This is achieved using terrain attributes such as topographic slope, aspect, and profile curvature, as well as environmental variables such as the wind speed and direction. This builds upon the research initially undertaken as part of the original Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre.

This report summarises the three phases of the project, during which time the researchers have gained familiarity and VLS mapping capability with the GIS software {\textquotedblleft}ArcGIS Pro{\textquotedblright}, which is used to create and validate the wind-terrain filters. This facilitated the two main research objectives {\textendash} to develop and then refine the first order and second order wind-terrain filters so that they may be applied using DEMs of any resolution.

Initially, this involved manual tuning of the first-order wind-terrain filter{\textquoteright}s parameters to fit a number of calibration events. This tuning was also confirmed through analyses of slope distributions over various landscape domains. These static cases were then validated with real case conditions and the filter compared to areas where VLS was known to have occurred. Scaling thresholds for the 30, 90 and 250 metre resolution DEMs were also evaluated explicitly, and a general linear model has been determined to allow estimation of parameter thresholds for more general DEM resolutions.

The second-order filter was then designed and tested in a similar manner to the first-order filter.\  The two filters were then merged into a combined operational product, which was also validated using known cases of VLS. \ Both filters are presented here - separately and as a combined product - for the operational consideration of end-users. \ End-user feedback was then evaluated to further tailor the operational product to specific operational needs, platforms, and formats. Due to travel restrictions static filters have been produced for immediate use. Development of a dynamic mapping tool is also continuing in which other factors such as the forecast wind speed and direction (and potentially other variables) can be incorporated automatically to provide heightened operational intelligence on extreme bushfire development.

}, issn = {730}, author = {Badlan, R and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-8307, title = {Supporting new volunteers: a resource kit for emergency service volunteer leaders}, number = {720}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2019-20 Australian bushfires ({\textquoteleft}Black Summer{\textquoteright}) caused a spike in volunteer inquiries. The devastating impact the bushfires had on the environment, animal populations, and the homes and livelihood of many Australians prompted considerable interest in volunteering for emergency services. Absent large-scale disasters, attracting and retaining volunteers are major challenges for emergency volunteer brigades, groups, and units (BGUs). However, the aftermath of the 2019-20 bushfires left volunteer leaders and managers with little guidance as to how they can properly onboard, support, lead, and manage the sudden influx of new volunteers and ensure that they are prepared for future bushfire seasons. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic that followed the bushfires shortly after left an increased appetite for online learning as face-to-face training was sometimes not possible.

Following the work of the Enabling Sustainable Emergency Volunteering project[1], as well as through research conducted with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the Supporting New Volunteers: A Resource Kit for Emergency Service Volunteer Leaders was proposed and created with the intention of providing both volunteers and staff members within emergency services organisations the guidance and tools to better support volunteer recruitment, onboarding, and leadership. These are research-based resources designed to complement and reinforce existing training and support available within emergency service organisations.

There are three modules available within the resource kit:

These modules contain resources that drew from real-life volunteer case studies and the available research evidence. The training information includes short (2-4 minute) training videos, volunteer interviews, {\textquoteleft}tip sheets{\textquoteright}, checklists, case studies, thinking exercises, reflection exercises, and editable templates.

It is hoped that these accessible and practical resources will empower and support volunteer leaders and emergency service staff members in their mission to attract, support, manage, and retain current and future volunteers in BGUs.

}, keywords = {emergency service, leaders, resource, training, volunteers}, issn = {720}, author = {Patrick Dunlop and Hawa Farid and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Darja Kragt} } @article {bnh-8371, title = {Terrestrial Laser Scanning: an operational tool for fuel hazard mapping?}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, pages = {85}, abstract = {

Fuel hazard estimates are vital for the prediction of fire behaviour and planning fuel treatment activities. Previous literature has highlighted the potential of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to be used to assess fuel properties. However, operational uptake of these systems has been limited due to a lack of a sampling approach that balances efficiency and data efficacy. This study aims to assess whether an operational approach utilising Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to capture fuel information over an area commensurate with current fuel hazard assessment protocols implemented in South-Eastern Australia is feasible. TLS data were captured over various plots in South-Eastern Australia, utilising both low- and high-cost TLS sensors. Results indicate that both scanners provided similar overall representation of the ground, vertical distribution of vegetation and fuel hazard estimates. The analysis of fuel information contained within individual scans clipped to 4 m showed similar results to that of the fully co-registered plot (cover estimates of near-surface vegetation were within 10\%, elevated vegetation within 15\%, and height estimates of near-surface and elevated strata within 0.05 cm). This study recommends that, to capture a plot in an operational environment (balancing efficiency and data completeness), a sufficient number of non-overlapping individual scans can provide reliable estimates of fuel information at the near-surface and elevated strata, without the need for co-registration in the case study environments. The use of TLS within the rigid structure provided by current fuel observation protocols provides incremental benefit to the measurement of fuel hazard. Future research should leverage the full capability of TLS data and combine it with moisture estimates to gain a full realisation of the fuel hazard.

}, keywords = {fuel hazard, fuel structure, occlusion, remote sensing, Risk assessment, TLS}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5040085}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/4/85}, author = {Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Ritu Taneja and Andrew White and James McGlade} } @article {bnh-8325, title = {Using Digital Earth Australia Waterbodies to support aerial firefighting}, number = {722}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Up to date information about the spatial distribution of water that is suitable for use by firefighting aircraft is required to:

The Digital Earth Australia (DEA) Waterbodies tool provides information water in waterbodies bigger than four Olympic swimming pools.\  This information is updated with every cloud free satellite overpass (satellite revisit every 16 days).

The aim of this project was to:

FINDINGS

DEA Waterbodies v1 was found to be suitable for start-of-season, severe fire danger period and start-of-fire information for command centres seeking to identify water availability within range of Helitak airpads (both permanent and temporary airpads).\  However, at present, its utility for pre-flight information for pilots was minimal based on the following limitations.

Waterbody size limitations

Limitations of DEA Waterbodies v1 Noting that the 25 metre pixel size provides a fundamental constraint on the minimum size of waterbodies that can be reliably detected using Landsat. A waterbody must be larger than 3125m2 (5 Landsat pixels) to be included in the DEA Waterbodies v1 polygon set.\  The water surface area in these polygons will be tracked down to 625m2 (a single Landsat pixel). This means that there will be many waterbodies that are suitable for access by small rotary wing aircraft that are not captured in the DEA Waterbodies v1 product.\  A future version of the DEA Waterbodies product could include smaller waterbodies to improve its utility for aerial firefighting stakeholders.\  This could be achieved by:

Timeliness limitations

Waterbody fill level information is of greatest utility to firefighting agencies when it is as up-to-date as possible.\  The timeliness of DEA waterbodies fill level information is determined by two elements:

Polygon attributes

Waterbody fill level information is of greatest utility to firefighting agencies when presented in the context of whether that waterbody is suitable for use by a specific aircraft type.\  Waterbody-aircraft suitability can be determined either via matching the historical fill activity for a particular aircraft type (demonstrated in this study) or via a spatial analysis of constraints (workflow described here for future implementation).

}, keywords = {aerial firefighting, DEA, waterbodies}, issn = {722}, author = {Leo Lymburner and Claire Krause and Robbi Bishop-Taylor and Brett Madsen} } @article {bnh-8359, title = {Victorian bushfire case studies - Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Understanding the interaction of weather, fuels and landscape is essential in determining the propagation and spread of bushfires. The fires of Black Summer in Victoria burnt 1.5 million hectares and continued for three months. This project has systematically collected multiple sources of information and begun a reconstruction of the bushfire spread and behaviour for most fires for this period. With this information, it is now possible to show what occurred and when. From this, it is then possible to investigate why it happened and be able to better predict future occurrences.

This study has

}, issn = {734}, author = {Owen Salkin} } @article {bnh-8354, title = {Why take the risk? Exploring the psychosocial determinants of floodwater driving}, journal = {Frontiers in Psychology}, volume = {13}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, pages = {13}, type = {Original Research}, abstract = {

As anthropogenic climate change progresses, there is an increasing need for individuals to make appropriate decisions regarding their approach to extreme weather events. Natural hazards are involuntary risk environments (e.g., flooded roads); interaction with them cannot be avoided (i.e., a decision must be made about how to engage). While the psychological and sociocultural predictors of engagement with voluntary risks (i.e., risk situations that are sought out) are well-documented, less is known about the factors that predict engagement with involuntary risk environments. This exploratory study assessed whether mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms), personality traits, and cultural worldviews combine to predict engagement with involuntary risk, using the situation of floodwater driving. An Australian sample (N = 235) was assessed via questionnaire and scenario measures. Results were analyzed in a binomial logistic regression assessing which individual factors predicted decision-making in a proxy floodwater driving scenario. Agreeableness and gender were individually significant predictors of floodwater driving intention, and four factors (named {\textquotedblleft}affect,{\textquotedblright} {\textquotedblleft}progressiveness,{\textquotedblright} {\textquotedblleft}insightfulness,{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}purposefulness{\textquotedblright}) were derived from an exploratory factor analysis using the variables of interest, though only two ({\textquotedblleft}progressiveness{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}insightfulness{\textquotedblright}) predicted floodwater driving intention in an exploratory binomial logistic regression. The findings highlight the need for further research into the differences between voluntary and involuntary risk. The implication of cultural worldviews and personality traits in interaction with mental health indicators on risk situations is discussed.

}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2022.913790}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.913790/full}, author = {Shauntelle Benjamin and Melissa Parsons and Deborah Apthorp and Amy Lykins} } @inbook {bnh-8357, title = {Wildland fire}, booktitle = {Handbook of Fire and the Environment }, volume = {The Society of Fire Protection Engineers Series}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, chapter = {Wildland Fire}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

Wildfires, and their associated management activities, can have complex social, economic, and environmental impacts. This chapter highlights some of the key impacts of wildfires in six sections. The first section about community focuses on relationships between recent destructive wildfires around the globe and losses to life and property. It also presents the main mechanisms of house loss in the Wildland-Urban Interface. Following that, a section about biodiversity impacts describes the major effects of wildfires and associated fire regimes on plants and animals, underlining both negative and positive effects. Then, the focus shifts to soil and water with a section that highlights how wildfires can have serious implications for downstream water quality and yield, posing a threat to water security for the people and aquatic wildlife. This is followed by a section about air quality, which describes the effect of wildfires on visibility, human health and their contribution to climate change. The next section highlights the role of dynamic fire behaviours that lead to the most severe impacts, describing the fire behaviours themselves and their frequency of occurrence. The chapter closes with a case study describing the extreme impacts of the 2019/2020 fire season in south-eastern Australia on people and the environment.

}, isbn = {978-3-030-94356-1}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94356-1_7}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-94356-1_7}, author = {Alex Filkov and Jane Cawson and Matthew Swan and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-8336, title = {Yanchep bushfire analysis {\textendash} Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Yanchep bushfire occurred in 11-15 December 2019 and was one of several noteworthy bushfires in Western Australia during the summer period. This bushfire coincided with some of the worst fire behaviour in NSW and Victoria and all were influenced by related climate processes.\ \  The Yanchep bushfire burned over ~12,300 ha spanning a diverse range of vegetation types (coastal dunes and heath, limestone heath, woodlands) and fire management histories.\ 

Despite rapidly expanding literature on fire severity classification, drivers of fire behaviour, and other important operational considerations key knowledge gaps remain in Western Australia.\  The Yanchep bushfire represents an excellent opportunity to develop fire knowledge for the Western Australia fire community and contribute to growing local fire science capacity.\  This project sought to classify fire severity using two complementary approaches, map vegetation at a finer scale than previously available, determine baseline biomass and fuel loads across key vegetation types, and assess the roles of fire weather, vegetation, and prior management in determining fire severity.

We were able to classify fire severity successfully (with 78\% accuracy) using both field-based training data as well as a battery of remote sensing metrics.\  Vegetation mapping using soil types and field validation yielded a higher quality map than previously available.\  Fuel load estimates provide an important range of values across vegetation types and fire histories. \ Lastly, examining bushfire severity in relation to prior fire, fire weather, and vegetation type showed clear interactions of previous fire in the prior 2-3 years,with beach-associated vegetation burning at lower severity, and limestone heath burning at higher severity.\ 

Collectively, these characteristics provide key insights for end-users in WA and more broadly, enabling fire severity mapping, informing fire operations, providing finer grained vegetation maps and fuel loads, and enabling an understanding of how prescribed burning in coastal plain vegetation types can influence bushfire spread and suppression.\ \ 

Future applications of this work will hopefully include:

  1. Fire severity mapping across the Swan Coastal Plain and then the entirety of the southwestern conservation estate managed by DBCA and eventually all land tenures.\ 
  2. Scaling up this proof of concept work to update vegetation maps and associated fuel load estimates in the Perth region.\  Such products are urgently needed by end-user organisations such as DFES, DBCA, and local government.\ 
  3. The basic reconstruction analyses presented in this report can be readily extended to incorporate broader data sets and more nuanced analyses to reveal the interplay of vegetation type, fire history, and fuels-fuel moisture dynamics.\ 
  4. Ecological feedbacks to fuel loads and bushfire hazard. Many areas experienced short interval fires and continued efforts can reveal the impact on vegetation regrowth and flow through effects on fuel loads and overall bushfire hazard (i.e. changed composition and structure effects on future bushfire hazard).
}, issn = {726}, author = {Joe Fontaine} } @article {bnh-8259, title = {Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy - Maroondah City Council and Knox City Council}, number = {617}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure to hazards may result in emergencies or disasters that have the potential to overwhelm the capacity of communities to respond and recover effectively. In terms of natural hazards, an increase in the incidence of extreme weather events linked to climate change is expected to result in greater disaster losses in the future. Resilience-based approaches have been adopted in Australia and overseas to deal with this problem.

Resilience is a term that is used across multiple disciplines, including in the physical and material sciences, psychology, ecology, environmental science and more recently, in emergency and disaster management (Alexander, D.E. 2013). Therefore, it has many definitions, several of which reflect its significance as the guiding principle for emergency and disaster management in Australia,

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the ability of system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management{\textquoteright} (United Nations Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019), or

The definition developed for the 100 Resilient Cities Project in Melbourne:

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems within a city to survive, adapt and grown no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience{\textquoteright} (Mulligan et al, 2016, p.10).

A definition of resilience has also been developed as part of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index (ADRI) project:

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the capacity of communities to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazard events and to learn, adapt and transform in ways that enhance these capacities in the face of future events{\textquoteright} (Parsons, 2016 p.6).

The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience was adopted in 2011 by all levels of Australian Government (Commonwealth of Australia, 2011). This marked a policy shift away from an emphasis on dealing with the aftermath of disasters toward a stronger focus on disaster preparation and planning, and the reduction and management of hazards. In 2018, a National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework (NDRRF)[i] (Commmonwealth of Australia, 2018) was introduced to guide disaster risk reduction activities for greater resilience. Importantly, the NDRRF deals with the increasing problem of disasters by considering the whole system and its interdependencies.\  In doing so it incorporates sustainability and climate change adaptation goals.

While State Governments play the major role in emergency management, the hazards, risks and the nature and severity of disaster impacts vary according to highly localised social, economic and environmental factors (Cutter et al, 2008). The adverse impacts from natural disasters that are invariably experienced at the local level may be sustained for many years afterwards. Local Government is the level of government that is closest to the community and, as such, it maintains a long-term commitment to managing local issues associated with emergencies and disasters. This role is integrally linked to local government{\textquoteright}s broader responsibility for the planning and provision of the majority of services and infrastructure in their constituent communities.\  There are 597 local government areas in Australia (Australian Local Government Association, 2020) with 79 in Victoria (Victorian Local Government Association, 2020.) Therefore, the services provided by local government and the policies and plans that shape them have a profound influence on the quality of life and the wellbeing of the Australian population as a whole. Local government is in a unique position to strengthen community resilience for emergencies, both through its local emergency management policies and plans and also, and perhaps more pervasively, through opportunities to positively influence the determinants of resilience through its broad range of council policies and plans.

In order to explore some of these opportunities, Yarra Ranges Council and the Maroondah and Knox City Councils asked the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) to evaluate their policies in terms of resilience. They were seeking answers to the question: To what extent do our council policies support resilience for emergencies or disasters? This project, titled Assessing Community Resilience for Emergencies in Local Government Policies (ACRE) was developed to examine the alignment between existing local government policies and the characteristics that enable community resilience. Maroondah and Knox City Councils were chosen as case studies. As a starting-point, councils were interested in evaluating their policies in relation to the Community Reslience Framework for Emergency Management (Emergency Management Victoria, 2017), developed by the Victorian State Government.

The idea that social resilience is intrinsic to resilience for emergencies or disasters is a central message in the Community Resilience Framework for Emergency Management (ibid). It provides policy guidance to encourage local government to embed resilience into its everyday activities, not only to improve the general health, wellbeing and prosperity of their communities, but as a way of highlighting how local communities can play their part in improving their ability to plan, prepare for, and to withstand and recover from adverse events.

In order to explore their full potential for strengthening resilience, councils also sought to evaluate their policies more broadly. The two councils{\textquoteright} policies were assessed against resilience information found in the academic literature. This research complements the Community Resilience Framework for Emergency Management (ibid) and adds to the body of evidence about local government{\textquoteright}s existing contribution and inherent potential to enhance community resilience for emergencies.

}, keywords = {community, council, emergencies, Local government, Policy, resilience}, issn = {617}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-8276, title = {Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy: summary}, number = {618}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Yarra Ranges Council, Maroondah City Council and the Knox City Council partnered with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to evaluate Maroondah and Knox policies to see where and how they align with and incorporate resilience. The Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy (ACRE) project also highlighted some strategic issues that are potentially relevant for local government and disaster resilience policy more broadly.

All levels of the Australian Government adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience in 2011 (NSDR) and its implementation is ongoing. The NSDR aims to shift national policy away from the traditional focus on disaster response toward planning and prevention to reduce the risk of natural disasters and the severity of their consequences. The National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework was launched in 2020 and builds on the NSDR and references resilience.

Not only that, but a resilience-based approach will improve the {\textquoteleft}capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems within a city to survive, adapt and grow not matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience{\textquoteright} (Mulligan et al, 2016). Local government is a key partner in achieving these goals because of its proximity to the community and the array of assets, services and programs it manages that are vital to the well-being of local communities. Local councils also have a legal responsibility to develop and maintain and review policies in critical areas, including for disasters and other emergencies. This provides opportunities to build the resilience of communities by pivoting local government policies and programs toward approaches that are proven to support resilience. In order to do this, Maroondah and Knox City Councils sought, as a first step, to better understand how their existing policies are compatible with resilience, the extent to which resilience was incorporated in policies and what areas can be improved.\ 

}, keywords = {community, council, emergencies, Local government, Policy, resilience}, issn = {618}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-7943, title = {Assessing the real costs of natural hazard-induced disasters: A case study from Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

Natural Hazard-induced Disasters (NHD) cause a wide range of losses to built and natural environments, the latter often beyond standard measures. Precise accounting and characterisation of the losses can assist in developing effective management policies that help to build resilient communities. This study applies trans-disciplinary approaches to assess total, monetary and non-monetary, NHD-related losses, estimated at AUD 156 million per year (2010{\textendash}2019 average), for Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory where bushfires, cyclones, storms and floods are destructive and frequent events. Non-monetary losses, often overlooked or omitted, were estimated at AUD103 million per year, accounting for two-thirds of total disaster-related losses. Marketable losses, estimated at AUD 53 million per year, were inferred, using standard and non-standard datasets, from the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements, insurance costs (Insurance Council of Australia database), and other relevant sources. Non-monetary losses were accounted for by the loss of ecosystem services from natural systems caused by cyclones and bushfires only, applying ecological economics approaches, but without considering long-term losses over the duration of recovery. This study informs disaster management policies to invest in collective emergency and environmental management planning for reducing NHD risk and building resilience of local communities to manage and prepare for rapidly changing climates. Such an accounting approach is essential in contexts where NHDs disproportionately affect the lives and well-being of disadvantaged remote communities.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Cost of natural disasters, cyclones, Floods, Loss from natural disasters, Natural hazard-induced disasters}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Akhilesh Surjan} } @article {bnh-8119, title = {Australian Exposure Information Platform enhancement project}, number = {682}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

The Australian Exposure Information Platform (AEIP) has been utilised for purposes of disaster preparedness, response and recovery since its release in 2018. The AEIP is currently the only service of its kind that can provide the Emergency Management (EM) sector with nationally consistent exposure information, 24/7.

GA and end-users have documented several areas in which the AEIP web mapping application (WMA) can be improved upon. Firstly, the user interface and functionality were improved through the addition of tools allowing users to create Exposure Reports for known geographies (e.g., Local Government Areas), thus allowing persons without spatial expertise greater flexibility when using the WMA.

Secondly, Exposure Reports could initially only be obtained through individual requests and there was limited functionality embedded within the WMA to give end-users the ability to submit multiple reports. Users can now request up to five different exposure report requests in one submission.

Furthermore, while the WMA excels in supplying nationally consistent exposure information, in the form of an exposure report, user{\textquoteright}s feedback suggests that there is a need to understand what is exposed in more of a dynamic way to keep paces with evolving and changing information requirements. \ Hence a complimentary service, accessing the same data, via a Dynamic Exposure Dashboard (DED) for emergency management situational awareness was devleoped.

The AEIP Enhancement Project{\textquoteright}s objectives are threefold:

  1. Enhance the AEIP WMA to increase accessibility and usability
  2. Develop an AEIP DED to provide Emergency responders with a situational awareness tool.
  3. Engage stakeholders to understand their use of AEIP information and to guide the enhancements suggested for the WMA, and the features and functionality of the DED

Method

GA{\textquoteright}s Landscape Information Section (LIS) have approached the issues within AEIP in three interconnected strategies: (1) Web Map Enhancement Strategy, (2) DED Strategy, and (3) Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The Web Map Enhancement Strategy involved the project team engaging GA{\textquoteright}s Digital Science and Information Section (DiSI) to outline the proposed changes to the existing web mapping functionality. DiSI created the changes in a non-production environment where they could be tested without affecting the current production environment. The non-production environment underwent iterative user testing within GA to ensure any changes are fit for production. DiSI then implement the changes to the production environment. Throughout the process, key stakeholders were engaged as part of a feedback cycle into the Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The DED Strategy was broken down into numerous technical tasks. Firstly, GA{\textquoteright}s enterprise Geographic Information Systems (eGIS) team set up the appropriate environment within the organisations ArcGIS Online Account (AGOL). Secondly, the project team developed a project management plan (PMP) to ensure that all the metadata requirements were met and that all project information was maintained and recorded within GA{\textquoteright}s electronic catalog system (eCat) Thirdly, the project team iteratively develop the DED and liaised with stakeholders through to the beta product release in June 2021.

The Stakeholder Engagement Strategy iteratively looped back into the aforementioned strategies to ensure that the project teams{\textquoteright} actions were the result of stakeholder input. Firstly, the project team defined the stakeholders through sampling AEIPs current user base. Secondly, stakeholders were engaged through a mixture of qualitative (video conferencing and in-person meetings/showcases) and quantitative (on-line survey) methods. Thirdly, feedback and responses were implemented into the development of either Web Map Enhancement Strategy or DED Strategy. Lastly, stakeholders were reengaged through qualitative means to assess the project team{\textquoteright}s development actions.

Research findings

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.\ 

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

Utilisation

Since its launch in 2018 usage of the AEIP WMA has been steadily increasing month on month. Most uses come from state-based agencies using Application Program Interface (API) keys which allow AEIP information to be integrated into their applications. Usage peaks during both short-term events (Tropical Cyclone Seroja, 2021) and medium-term events (Black Summer), where the service has proven reliable and stable. Usage outside of events is primarily for preparedness and planning purposes.

In May of 2021, the federal government announced the Australian Climate Service (ACS), a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO, ABS and Geoscience Australia to help better anticipate, manage and adapt to climate impacts now and in the future. NEXIS and the AEIP have been identified as important components of the ACS and the next steps for the AEIP will be aimed at integrating revised data into all AEIP services; WMA, DED and GA{\textquoteright}s data download services.

Providing DED users the ability to add their own data into the mapping pane of the DED is also an important next step as this would provide a richer user experience and increase the capability of the DED as a situational awareness tool during disasters.

Positioning the AEIP in the landscape of emergency management tools and products is an on-going task. Investigating options to integrate the WMA and DED into a single user-experience that can be accessed from the same application, preferably via on online hub or portal, is seen as an important step in marketing and maintaining the longevity of the AEIP in the emergency management sector.

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

}, keywords = {AEIP, enhancement, exposure, Natural hazards, utilisation}, issn = {682}, author = {Con Charalambou and Mark Dunford and Jake Bradley} } @article {bnh-7977, title = {Bioclimatic drivers of fire severity across the Australian geographical range of giant Eucalyptus forests}, journal = {Journal of Ecology}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

The relationships between productivity, fire frequency and fire severity shape the distribution of plant communities globally. Dry forests are expected to burn frequently and wet forests to burn infrequently. However, the effect of productivity on intensity and severity of wildfire is less consistent and poorly understood. One productive ecosystem where this is especially true is the Australian tall wet Eucalyptus-dominated forest (TWEF), which spans wet areas across the continent. This study aims to characterise how climate shapes the likelihood of low- and high-severity wildfire across Australian TWEF.

We performed a continental-scale analysis of fuels in 48 permanent plots in early-mature stage TWEF across four climate regions in Australia. We estimated fuel loads and measured understorey microclimate. We then obtained historical fire-weather observations from nearby meteorological stations and used fuel moisture and fire behaviour equations to predict the historical frequency with which TWEF could burn and what fire severities were expected. We investigated how this varies across the different TWEF climate regions. Lastly, we validated our approach by remeasuring eight plots that burned unexpectedly post-measurement.

We found that surface fuels in cooler, moister regions were available to burn 1{\textendash}16\ days per year historically, with only low-severity, surface fire possible most of these days: high-severity fire was only possible under rare, extreme fire-weather conditions. However, in warmer, drier regions, fuels were available to burn 23{\textendash}35\ days annually, and high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire. Validation showed that we slightly overestimated flame heights, inflating high-severity risk estimates. If we used elevated fuel loads to predict flame heights, however, high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire everywhere. Lastly, the likelihood of high-severity fire increased with increasing temperature and worsening fire weather.

Synthesis. Fire activity in early-mature TWEF is limited by climatic constraints on fire weather and availability to burn, with high-severity fire more likely in warmer, drier regions than in cooler, wetter ones. This indicates a particularly worrisome vulnerability to climate change, given TWEF{\textquoteright}s diminished ability to recover from disturbance in a warmer world. The occurrence of both low- and high-severity fire means the fire regimes of TWEF are best described as mixed severity.

}, keywords = {biogeography, Climate change, ecological disturbance, fire ecology, fire severity, macroecology, mixed-severity fires, tall wet Eucalyptus forests}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13663}, url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.13663}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Lynda Prior and Grant Williamson and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-7980, title = {Black Summer - how the NSW community responded to the 2019-20 bushfire season}, number = {651}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, pages = {130}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2019-20 bushfire season saw unprecedented, destructive bushfires across New South Wales (NSW). After an early start to the fire season in August 2019, fires spread south from the Queensland border to the Victorian border over the course of spring and summer. Tens of thousands of people were displaced by the fires, including residents, tourists and visitors to affected areas. Significant rainfall in early February 2020 helped contain the fires by February 13 and brought an end to the most deadly and destructive fire season in NSW history. Tragically, 26 people lost their lives in the fires, including four NSW RFS volunteers and three US aerial firefighters. Many more people were affected by smoke, including in regional areas and major population centres such as the north coast, Sydney, Canberra, Newcastle and Wollongong. By season{\textquoteright}s end, fires had burned a record 5.5 million hectares of NSW and destroyed 2,448 homes (NSW RFS 2020). Community and commercial buildings and infrastructure were also significantly impacted on. The fires adversely affected many industries, including agriculture, forestry and tourism.

The NSW RFS engaged the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to conduct research into community preparedness, warnings and responses to the 2019-20 NSW bushfires. The NSW RFS identified eight key themes for investigation, including: (i) risk communication; (ii) effect of prolonged and repeated exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iii) effect of previous experience and exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iv) sheltering practices; (v) experiences of tourists and visitors; (vi) awareness and attitudes toward bushfire risk reduction; (vii) building standards; and (viii) community recovery and resilience.

This report presents findings from research into community attitudes and experiences of the 2019-20 bushfire season undertaken for the NSW RFS. The NSW RFS Statement of Work identified the following themes and questions for investigation:

}, keywords = {Bushfire, communication, communities, Community safety, education, Fire, Warnings}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-9-5}, issn = {651}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Wilkinson, Carrie and Matalena Tofa and Tasmin Dilworth and Jessica Collins and Lillian Tait and Stephanie Samson} } @article {bnh-7898, title = {Building inclusive partnerships with culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities}, number = {652}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The purpose of this document is to provide basic guidance for emergency services practitioners to support the building of respectful and inclusive partnerships with culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities. This document focuses on general guidance that applies when working with all CALD communities. However, as each community has its own context and character, it is important to be mindful of the need to adapt practice to work with each community{\textquoteright}s specific needs.

This document draws from the general literature, and the following reports from the BNHCRC project {\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion building strength and capability{\textquoteright}:

}, keywords = {CALD, communities, culture, diversity, inclusive, linguistics, partnerships}, issn = {652}, author = {Daniel Ooi and Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-8136, title = {Capability Maturity Assessment facilitators guide}, number = {681}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe that has truly overwhelmed our society.

An essential component of planning for severe-to-catastrophic disasters is to develop an understanding of capability maturity to deliver the desired effect. Knowledge of capability gaps can then be used to enhance planning and identify alternate sources of capability.

The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements stated:

Jurisdictional approaches to capacity and capability development have served fire and emergency services well in the past. However, climate and demographic changes are likely to increase the demand on fire and emergency services. The ability of individual jurisdictions to meet this demand at peak times is likely to become increasingly difficult, prompting a need for increased resource sharing. There is a need to consider capabilities nationally, and for a more consistent and connected approach to capability planning across jurisdictions.

The Australian Disaster Preparedness Framework outlines a direction to improve understanding of national capability in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disasters.

Purpose

This guide provides instructions on how to conduct a first-pass capability maturity assessment for a jurisdiction to identify capability gaps and development priorities.

Audience

This guide is directed towards those who may manage or participate in the capability maturity assessment process.

}, keywords = {assessment, Capability, Emergency management, guide, maturity, Policy, Preparedness, tool}, issn = {681}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-8124, title = {A characterisation of synoptic weather features often associated with extreme events in southeast Australia: Stage 1 {\textendash} common features of recent events}, number = {679}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Negatively tilted upper-tropospheric troughs are a synoptic weather pattern that have been associated with the development of thunderstorms and severe weather, including extreme fire weather and tornadoes. While various case studies and some preliminary climatological analysis have been conducted in the past, a thorough investigation of the development of these synoptic features during extreme weather events has not yet been done in Australia or elsewhere. This study aimed to identify how often negatively tilted troughs occur and how often they are associated with extreme storms and fire weather.

The objectives of the project were to:

The major components of the project were:

Review of previously documented cases

January 2003 Canberra fires

July 2014 Perth tornadoes

Climatology

While modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are increasingly capable of resolving the surface weather parameters associated with severe weather events, there are known deficiencies. An example of this is the over-estimation of low winds and under-estimation of high winds common to numerous models. Better understanding of the role of features such as NTT in generating surface weather helps interpretation and refinement of the NWP output, particularly for users of weather data such as emergency services agencies.

Furthermore, as products from NWP such as sub-seasonal to seasonal outlooks become more refined, there is value in recognising the occurrence of potential impacts of NTT that may be resolved at the synoptic or sub-synoptic scale in such model configurations even if the potential severity of the weather parameters are note explicitly resolved. For example, if a sub-seasonal to seasonal model ensemble shows a high probability of a NTT occurrence in a particular region a certain number of weeks in advance, that is useful information for planning and preparedness for emergency services managers.

Thus, this sort of synoptic climatological study in combination with detailed analyses of particular events continues to be of great relevance to natural hazard prediction and management.

Future work

}, keywords = {exterme events, features, Fire, southeast Australia, synoptic, tornado, weather}, issn = {679}, author = {Love, P. and Paul Fox-Hughes and Remenyi, T. and Nick Earl and Dean Rollins and Gabi Mocatta and Rebecca Harris} } @article {bnh-8109, title = {Community organisation involvement in disaster management}, number = {678}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Severe to catastrophic disasters pose the potential to overwhelm traditional emergency management approaches, necessitating the adoption of a whole- of-community approach.

A key component of the whole-of-community approach is building collaborative partnerships between communities, government agencies, community organisations and businesses across the phases of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery to engage their full capacity.

To date there has been little research examining the role of Australian community organisations in disaster management although many organisations provide assistance. This research focuses specifically on the role and involvement of community organisations in disaster management.

Pertinent findings of the research were:

Recommendations

The following recommendations are made for consideration to improve the utilisation of capabilities offered by community organisations in disaster management.

  1. Australian disaster management doctrine should be revised to embrace a whole-of-community approach to disaster management.
  2. The role of community organisations including peak bodies should be clearly defined in relevant emergency plans.
  3. Community organisations should be involved in government-led disaster planning and exercises, including involvement in relevant emergency management committees.
  4. Local councils should form community resilience committees to promote collaboration and joint planning between government, community organisations and local businesses. These committees could be sub- committees of relevant emergency management committees.
  5. Government emergency management organisations should collectively work with community organisations to develop an understanding of community networks and community organisation capabilities.
  6. Government funding bodies should enable funding flexibility to allow community organisations to integrate disaster management initiatives into their core business activities.
  7. Specific disaster management grants should be targeted to community organisations to assist with maturing of disaster management capabilities and engagement with communities.
  8. Funding arrangements should enable collaboration between different community organisations, businesses and government.
  9. Community organisation peak bodies should take an active role in building the disaster management capabilities of their members.
  10. Emergency management organisations should work with community organisation peak bodies to develop a training strategy to upskill the staff and volunteers of community organisations in relevant disaster management roles. This could include a toolkit for community organisations to provide guidance on roles and better practice.
  11. Peak bodies and emergency management organisations should work with universities and training providers to incorporate emergency management content in relevant degree and training programs.
  12. Community organisations should work to develop business resilience plans. These can be supported by relevant toolkits tailored to community organisations.
  13. States and Territories should include community organisations within capability maturity assessments.
  14. The roles performed by community organisations in disaster management should be continually evaluated to ensure robust measurement of the value provided by community organisations.
  15. State and Territories should implement initiatives to raise the awareness of the role of community organisations in disaster management. These could include: integration of the role of community organisations within emergency management training, inclusion of community organisations in policy development and emergency management forums, specific communications outlining the role and value of including community organisations in disaster management, senior leadership involvement as champions.
  16. Community recovery programs should include the provision of mental health and wellbeing support to members of community organisations.
}, keywords = {community, disaster, involvement, management, organisations}, issn = {678}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George} } @article {bnh-8194, title = {Community-led recovery - Black Summer final report}, number = {702}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Community-led approaches to disaster recovery are regarded as the optimal approach to sustainable disaster recovery, fostering self-reliance and self-determination within affected communities (Dibley, Mitchell, Ireton, Gordon, \& Goron, 2019; Olshansky, 2005). However, as noted by Dibley et al. (2019), {\textquotedblleft}[w]hat is less clear in the literature is how government might best foster and enable community-led recovery while maintaining their role and responsibilities in coordination after a disaster,{\textquotedblright} (p. 3, emphasis in original).

The objective of this research was to address this gap by examining ways in which governments can better support and enable communities to lead their own recovery after bushfire disaster events. Specifically, the following research questions were explored:

  1. How can government best support community-led deliberative decision-making processes in post-disaster bushfire recovery?
  2. How can government best leverage existing and emerging community organisations, structures, and networks in post-disaster bushfire recovery?

This project developed a set of resources to broaden the knowledge base and disseminate best practice, both within and beyond end-user organisations. Research findings from this project expand our knowledge on how community structures may modify the decision-making function of community recovery bodies (i.e., Community Recovery Committees), and shape residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of community recovery. These resources include:

These resources are intended to be utilised by community engagement staff, other state and local government staff, CRC members, and not-for-profit staff who are involved in recovery. In all, the resources developed as part of this study are intended to be useful beyond the current cohort of CRCs operating in the wake of the 2019/20 bushfire season, which formed the basis of this research analysis. We hope that these efforts will form the basis for recovery progress monitoring, benchmarking, and support activities within disaster-affected communities and risk areas. However, it is a complex field, and so a proposed agenda is also provided for next steps in research and applications.

}, keywords = {communications, community, recovery}, issn = {702}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Collin Gallagher and Kate Brady and Claire Leppold and Greg Ireton and Andrew Haywood and Yvette Clarke and Stewart Davies and Fyowna Norton and Vaughn Brandenburg} } @article {bnh-8257, title = {A comparison between TLS and UAS LiDAR to represent eucalypt crown fuel characteristics}, journal = {ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing}, volume = {181}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, pages = {295-307}, abstract = {

Advances in fire behaviour modelling provide a catalyst for the development of next generation fuel inputs. Fire simulations underpin risk and consequence mapping and inform decisions regarding ecological and social impacts of different fire regimes. Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) carrying Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors have been proposed as a source of structural information with potential for describing fine fuel properties. Whilst these systems have been shown to be capable of describing general vegetation distribution, the ability to distinguish between vegetation elements that contribute to fire spread and those that do not (such as large woody elements) is yet to be explored. This study evaluates the ability of UAS LiDAR point clouds to provide a description of crown fuel elements in eucalypt trees. This is achieved through comparison with dense Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) that were manually attributed with a fuel description. Using the TLSeparation package TLS and UAS LiDAR point clouds achieved 84.6\% and 81.1\% overall accuracy respectively in the separation of crown fuel and wood in nine reference trees. When applying the same separation process across a 30 by 50\ m plot consisting of approximately 75 trees, total canopy fuel volume was found to be strongly correlated between the TLS and UAS LiDAR point clouds (r: 0.96, RMSE: 1.53\ m3). A lower canopy base height and greater distance between crown fuel regions within each crown supported visual inspection of the point clouds that TLS point clouds were able to represent the crown to a greater extent than UAS LiDAR point clouds. Despite these differences it is likely that a less complete representation of canopy fuel such as that generated from UAS LiDAR point clouds will suitably represent the crown and canopy fuel objects effectively for fire behaviour modelling purposes. The research presented in this manuscript highlights the potential of TLS and UAS LiDAR point clouds to provide repeatable, accurate 3D characterisation of canopy fuel properties.

}, keywords = {UAS Drone LiDAR 3D remote sensing TLS Fuel}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2021.09.008}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924271621002409}, author = {Samuel Hillman and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-8100, title = {Continental-scale prediction of live fuel moisture content using soil moisture information}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {307}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, abstract = {

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key factor that determines the flammability of vegetation in ecosystems. Soil moisture (SM) is one of the variables that is known to influence plant water use. The present study analyses the LFMC-SM relationship over Australia using gridded, remote sensing-based LFMC and land surface model-based SM products. A lag-correlation analysis conducted over 60 selected sites shows that the strength of the relationship between LFMC and SM varies from site to site and, in general, is moderately strong (median lag-correlation of ~0.5). However, the strength of the relationship changes with vegetation type and also with soil profile depth. At all the sites, SM is found to be a leading indicator of LFMC. The lag also varies with the location and is found to range from days to months. Based on the location-based correlation analysis, we identify the 0-35 cm SM profile (SM0-35cm) to be the best predictor of LFMC. We developed a simple model to predict daily LFMC, where it is hypothesised that daily variations in LFMC from its annual cycle can be predicted using daily deviations from the annual cycle in SM0-35cm. The annual cycles of LFMC and SM0-35cm are modelled using Fourier cosine series. The averaged (over 60 sites) correlation obtained for the validation period is 0.74 when a time-lag of 14 days is assumed at all locations. When the model is applied nationally at a 5 km grid, the normalised root mean squared error for the validation period is found to be less than 25\% in general. The results from the present study highlight a modelling strategy that can be used to address a critical gap in the forecast of spatially and temporally continuous LFMC at regional scales in advance for operational fire management applications.

}, keywords = {AFMS, Fire, JASMIN, JULES, live fuel moisture, Soil moisture}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108503}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168192321001866}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Marta Yebra and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-7952, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk - final project report}, number = {657}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This final report contains a summary of the research undertaken by the research team from four partner institutions towards the development of an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the seismic risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings subject to earthquakes.\  Without this evidence base, it is impossible to make cost-effective and economically justifiable decisions by building owners and government officials on all matters concerning seismic strengthening of existing and design of new buildings.\  While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as bridges, roads and ports, while at the same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.\ 

In order to achieve the overall project aim, work was undertaken on three complementary fronts to:

  1. Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
  2. Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model with trial evaluations for a regional town (York, WA) and a metropolitan area (Melbourne); and
  3. Advance an end-user focused research utilisation project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components was researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work included investigations of existing building seismic capacities and development of building specific retrofit techniques. The second area was studied by Geoscience Australia and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit.\  The delivery date for the Melbourne CBD trial evaluation was delayed due to Covid-19 impacts but the revised delivery date of March 2021 has been agreed by the CRC. The last component was conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

As a consequence, the project has been extremely successful with several end-users implementing the research outputs.\  York Shire Council has embarked on seismic retrofit of up to three buildings in the Shire as demonstrations to other building owners of the cost-effectiveness as well as helping to develop the local expertise amongst the building profession to implement these simple seismic strengthening techniques.\  The project has also resulted in a follow-on project in Western Australia to expand the building typologies from York to include three additional typologies that are common in the rest of WA.\  The retrofit strategies for all nine typologies will be made publically available through web sites.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {657}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-8215, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk {\textendash} Melbourne case study}, number = {707}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was not fully recognised in Australian building design until the mid-1990{\textquoteright}s. This oversight has resulted in a legacy of vulnerable buildings that can be readily damaged in moderate to severe Australian earthquakes. In particular, older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings built with the architectural styles, materials and construction details used in the United Kingdom are particularly vulnerable. Australian earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of this building type. These events include the Adelaide Earthquake of 1954, the Meckering Earthquake of 1968, the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989 and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake of 2010, all of which damaged pre WWII masonry buildings in particular.\  Buildings of this style are present in the older centres of our major cities, and Melbourne has a very significant number of these. As shown in this research, in number nearly half of the buildings in the Melbourne central business district are of this type of construction. The damage to these buildings can greatly add to human casualties as a result of falling masonry elements. Further, the severity of damage and losses can impede the recovery of cities like Melbourne physically, economically and socially. Finally, many of these buildings have heritage value to communities that residents may want preserved.

This document reports on the final deliverable for Project A9 Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC). It builds on the masonry component research of the University of Adelaide in this project and is a milestone for Geoscience Australia. The work follows the utilisation project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Earthquake Mitigation of WA Regional Towns: York Case Study{\textquotedblright}, that was jointly delivered by GA and the University of Adelaide. The utilisation project developed original condition and mitigated vulnerability models for six URM building types. In this project, these outcomes have been applied to the much larger Melbourne CBD exposure.

The project had the following key components:

The work required the development of the three fundamental risk elements of earthquake hazard, community exposure and building vulnerability. It also entailed the assessment of the economic loss measures associated with human injury, contents losses, rental income, commercial property leasing, and business activity. Additionally, it included the application of the semi-intangible value placed on human life to society. Each of these are described below.

Earthquake hazard

This study has drawn upon the latest understanding of the Melbourne region earthquake hazard by utilising the recently released National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA 2018) (Allen et al, 2018a). The bedrock hazard from this assessment shows Melbourne to have a {\textquotedblleft}low{\textquotedblright} earthquake hazard by global standards but significant by Australian standards. The hazard is further amplified by the presence of the sediments deposited by the Yarra River.\  These soil effects increase the hazard, particularly those in the study region south of the Yarra River. The effects of soil amplification can double the severity of shaking in some areas.

Community exposure

The definition of the building assets in the study region utilised several sources. The available state government building data integrated into the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) was accessed and supplemented by an engineering survey database developed and maintained by GA for the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation. This was further refined by a desktop review of all masonry buildings utilising available street level imagery. In total there were 1,543 buildings in the study region, and 687 of these were identified as URM.

The assessment of human activity was achieved by utilising research undertaken outside of this project. This research utilised a population model developed by downscaling a destination zone based telecommunication model with pedestrian counts, the Melbourne traffic control systems movement counts, and building floor area information. Using this work it was possible to define the local human exposure at the time of the scenario event, particularly those in damaged buildings and those potentially exposed to falling masonry during a rapid onset earthquake event.

Building vulnerability

The building vulnerability assessment work for the URM building stock was a direct utilisation of the six vulnerability types identified in the earlier York WA mitigation study. This included the vulnerability in present condition, and that with mitigation measures applied to the vulnerable elements. To complete the context, the vulnerability of other building types was attributed using a suite of models developed through an adaptation of US HAZUS models, reference to \ heuristically developed models from a GA facilitated UN workshop (Maqsood et al, 2014), and through heuristic adjustments by the project team. This vulnerability of non-URM buildings remained a constant in the study as mitigation of these buildings was not considered.

Economics of cost assessment

The economic assessment considered a broad range of measures. These ranged from the direct costs to property owner, building occupiers, and businesses through to health care costs and the partially intangible value placed on the loss of a human life. The aim was to provide scalable information on benefits versus cost to a range of decision makers and investors. Importantly, the measures where not comprehensive and so represent a lower bound to the actual avoided impacts mitigation achieves. For example, the cost of emergency response, clean-up and community recovery support were not considered. Neither was a macro-economic perspective developed to capture non-impacted businesses that would benefit from a stimulus in business activity such as in the construction industry, the supply of home appliances, soft furnishings and drapery. Significantly, the value of avoided heritage building loss was considered through the utilisation of metrics developed by a UWA led CRC project.

Scenario impacts and risks

The study considered a single rare earthquake scenario having an annual likelihood of 1/5,000 of causing the targeted bedrock shaking severity beneath the Melbourne CBD, or greater. This likelihoods corresponds with a 1\%, chance of this shaking severity being exceeded in the next 50 years. For the event the injuries and other losses within the scope of this study were assessed using the human exposure corresponding with 11:00am of Monday through to Thursday. The losses ranged from $737m for building damage only, through to $1.66b for the other monetary costs considered.\  The value of human life lost increased this to $3.97b. Where 25\% of the masonry building stock was retrofitted, over 30 years, these losses reduced by approximately 16\%.

The reduction in injuries if this event occurred in 30 years time was also evaluated. Serious injuries reduced by 16 and deaths by 98 persons. Urban Search and Rescue logistics would also reduce correspondingly.

In a similar manner, the long term financial risk of the Melbourne CBD study region was evaluated for building damage. It was presented as the average annualised loss for the URM building stock and for the entire study region buildings. It was also forecast 30 years into the future and the financial risk reduced by 38\% for the URM building stock and by 10\% across the entire study region buildings.

Discussion and outcomes

Earthquakes occur frequently in Australia with over 100 events greater than magnitude 3.0 (ML) recorded within the Australian continent every year by Geoscience Australia. The smaller and more frequent events are typically non-damaging, whereas the less frequent larger events can be very damaging when they occur close to a community. This plays out in the economics of strengthening older structures where the benefits of avoided building damage and contents losses through retrofit for earthquake are not a full offset for the significant costs.\  Other avoided costs associated with business losses, lost wages, health care costs, and the value placed on human life, do increase the sum significantly but are not realised by the property owner. While not all avoided costs were considered, this project indicates that the justification for retrofit based solely on a financial investment may be difficult to demonstrate for URM buildings in Melbourne.

As was also illustrated by the earlier York study, there are other considerations for the retrofit of URM buildings in the Melbourne CBD and in other older business districts in the city. If a rare earthquake occurred locally during a period of high public exposure there would be considerable loss of life. This research has shown that if a 5,000 year Return Period (RP) event (5.5 Mw) occurring on a business day approximately 100 people would die with close parallels to the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake outcome for masonry structures (42 fatalities). This may point to cheaper levels of retrofit with the objective of tying back elements that could cause casualties, rather than having the aim of avoiding economic loss.

Further, following a rare, but credible, earthquake high value heritage buildings would be lost. The research has shown that the willingness to pay by just the residents of the City of Melbourne LGA adds a notional 10\% of the total benefits of the mitigation program.

SUMMARY

The project has applied a range of retrofit measures for a suite of six URM building types developed as part of Project A9 to a very large population of URM building found in the Melbourne CBD. These measures have been demonstrated to reduce the physical vulnerability of each building. The project has also translated this vulnerability change into broader metrics that form an evidence base to inform decisions to retrofit.

The project has also demonstrated the benefit of retrofit through a virtual retrofit of a major city CBD. These benefits include reduced post event logistics for emergency management and the local government, reducing financial losses to building owners, businesses, and reducing injuries and fatalities. It has also demonstrated that retrofit reduces the long term financial cost of earthquake hazard, thereby making risk transfer through insurance uptake more affordable. Finally, it has demonstrated how valuable heritage structures can be progressively preserved for the future by protecting them from future credible earthquakes.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Melbourne, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {707}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Jaroslav Vaculik and Valdis Juskevics and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Itismita Mohanty and Stuart Butt and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen and Robert Hewison} } @article {bnh-8130, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings {\textendash} final project report}, number = {691}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. While the vulnerability and associated flood risk for newer construction is being addressed (moderated) by new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC) project entitled Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings addresses this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel CRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

The project has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies have been costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Vulnerability curves have been developed featuring reduced losses achieved through appropriate mitigation strategies for the five selected storey types.

Furthermore, selected building materials/systems have been tested to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. These tests were aimed at addressing knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability of building materials during immersion.

A research utilisation project with NFRAG, AIDR and FMA as key stakeholders commenced in 2018. The project has developed generalised vulnerability functions for use by floodplain managers who may not have detailed exposure information.

In concluding the project, cost benefit analyses of mitigation options were conducted at three levels of resolution. These have added to cost versus benefit work already completed by the project team for Launceston as a utilisation project. The results are an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies.

This report describes the research methods, project activities, outcomes and their potential for utilisation.

}, keywords = {buildings, Flood, mitigation, strategy}, issn = {691}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7900, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling {\textendash} final project report}, number = {650}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events as publications; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI); and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has delivered across several activities:

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has provided fire and meteorology expertise during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications.\  However, it successfully realises the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The operational support capability is recognised and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau.

To complete the project we will finalise publication of the draft papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature; this will expand the international body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies.\ 

We are pleased to bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge on fire and atmosphere interactions.\  We have also delivered an important capability in ACCESS-Fire that can provide ongoing benefit to the field of meteorology and fire prediction and to the Australian community into the future.

In the coming months we will continue our conversations with partners and end-users to establish plans for future use and development of ACCESS-Fire as the BNHCRC transitions to the new Disaster Resilience Research Institute.\ \  ACCESS-Fire is an important research tool and has the potential to be a critical operational tool. It will assist in informing fire management decisions as we face increasingly hazardous scenarios in a changing climate.

}, keywords = {coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {650}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-8253, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of five Black Summer fires using the ACCESS-Fire model - Black Summer final report}, number = {705}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

This research builds on previous work completed during the Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling ACCESS-Fire project, by conducting case studies of five major bushfires that occurred across Australia during the 2019-20 summer. The previous work provided valuable insights into the drivers of periods of extreme fire behaviour associated with the Waroona fire in WA, and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW.

The main objectives of this project are: to investigate the meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour at five further fire events; to further test the reliability and stability of the model in different environments across Australia; and to support and share learnings from the events of the 2019-20 summer with partner agencies.

The fire events nominated by state jurisdictions for investigation were: Badja Forest (New South Wales), Stanthorpe (Queensland), Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong\ (NSW/Victoria), Kangaroo Island (South Australia); and Yanchep (Western Australia).

The case studies show that the local context for each fire is important. Each of the fires posed significant challenges in different ways. In the heavily forested areas of NSW and Victoria, the sheer size, intensity, and duration of the fires were distinctive. At other fires, the proximity of local communities and infrastructure posed serious challenges. All fires were active in the overnight period when conventional fire danger indices typically suggest a decrease in fire activity.

The marine boundary layer, local coastal effects and topography combined to generate complex wind flows that influenced the progression of the Kangaroo Island fire. We also studied the way in which the sea breeze circulation interacted with the Yanchep fire, and examined the impact of a prescribed burn on the rate and direction of spread of the Stanthorpe fire under extreme fire weather conditions.

This project has explored gaps in knowledge and understanding of the processes at play during these unusual events by using the Bureau{\textquoteright}s ACCESS-Fire model to examine the local three-dimensional interactions between the fires and the atmosphere. The learnings from this project may be applied to shape future fire weather products and services.

Method

Based on discussions with our partners in fire agencies, together with documents (including photographs and video) and information on fire spread, fuel types and fuel moisture and atypical fire behaviour, we have run a series of simulations and prepared case study chapters for each of the five fires.

The ACCESS-Fire model was initialised using information provided by fire agencies on ignition location or fire line perimeter and fuel type and availability. Several simulations were conducted for each of the fires, with a focus on different time periods of interest and using updated fire polygon boundaries based on available line scan imagery.

The model configuration does not permit the simulations to account for suppression activities by fire agencies, changes in fuel types on the urban interface, or the impact of roads or other fire breaks in reducing the rate of spread of the fire. Another limitation is that the simulations are a single realisation, when in reality, consideration of forecast uncertainty (for example through running an ensemble scheme) would capture a range of potential outcomes.\ 

Learnings from the case studies reinforce and refine some previous learnings from historical fire events and uncover some new insights into the processes driving the periods of unusual fire behaviour that were observed during the 2019/20 season.

Key findings

The case study analyses have provided valuable insights into meteorological aspects of observed extreme fire behaviour during the 2019/20 summer. Key findings for each of the five case studies are included in the individual chapters for each fire and a synthesis is provided here.\ 

The ACCESS-Fire simulations run at 300 m spatial resolution show that some of the most dangerous effects of the fires, in particular damaging and destructive winds, are fire driven and therefore very localised at a much finer scale than current fire weather products.

The depth, elevation and structure of low-level jets over topography was a critical driver of overnight fire activity.\  Given that these jets are driven by larger scale processes (typically synoptic scale), there is an opportunity to develop new tools based on numerical weather prediction output that highlight the location and intensity of these features. Such tools would provide additional information for meteorologists and FBANs on the strength and height of representative winds for input to two-dimensional fire spread models and could be used to alert fire managers to the risk of atypical fire spread in the overnight period.

A key theme that emerged from the case studies and discussions with stakeholders was the consistent occurrence of heatwaves and their influence on boundary layer structure overnight and on inhibiting fuel moisture recovery during the overnight period. Further research quantifying the effects of overnight heatwaves is required to appropriately plan for the increased risk to communities and fire crews in a changing climate, as the frequency of elevated overnight temperatures has increased over the last few decades and is projected to increase further (along with other factors influencing fire activity).\ \ 

Deep moist pyroconvection producing pyrocumulus (pyroCu) or pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds was a feature of the 2019-20 fire season and a record number of sustained outbreaks of pyroCbs occurred.\  However, the five fires examined here were not all associated with pyroCb, highlighting that it is not the sole weather phenomenon associated with extreme fire behaviour. In particular, no lightning was detected within the Green Valley Talmalmo fire (that subsequently became the Corryong fire when it burned into Victoria) as it burned through Green Valley, which shows that dangerous tornado-strength fire-generated winds can occur without pyroCb.

The simulations produced fire-generated extreme winds associated with both rotation and straight-line flow, which present a serious hazard. ACCESS-Fire simulated rotating winds in the updraft of the Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong fire. More work is required to understand the mechanisms for these, they are likely related to the high intensity of the fire, coupled with topographic influences.

Spot fires were an important component in the observed rate of spread, particularly in the forest fires overnight. The extremely dry, drought-affected fuel beds meant that the ignition efficiency of spot fires was enhanced compared to an average season. Inclusion of a spotting parameterisation in ACCESS-Fire would accelerate the forwards fire spread and improve validation of the simulated fire perimeters.\ 

Coastal processes were evident in the simulations of the Kangaroo Island and Yanchep fires. Localised wind effects in the simulations showed interactions between the fire and maritime airmass including sea breeze circulations can modify the updrafts associated with the fire as well as produce rapid transitions in fire intensity around a fire perimeter. Cooler moister air associated with a maritime airmass may not necessarily reduce fire intensity, depending on its depth and penetration inland.

Utilisation - where to from here?

The high level of engagement in this work from a range of stakeholders has demonstrated the value of this research and the appetite for operational application.\ 

The learnings from this work should be incorporated into training packages tailored for fire meteorologists and FBANs that describe characteristics of the local meteorological environment favourable for extreme fire behaviour. Such training will complement other current research and training on fire behaviour aspects such as spotting and potential for pyroCb.

This work, which has been conducted in close collaboration with partners in fire agencies, has demonstrated that a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms driving fire behaviour requires a multidisciplinary approach. Similarly, the successful application of fire behaviour and meteorology knowledge in operations requires locally connected specialised expertise, combined with tailored modelling tools to inform objective, evidence-based decisions.

The insights gathered from these five case studies have further demonstrated the value of this high resolution coupled modelling approach. In order to progress ACCESS-Fire to an effective operational tool, more robust testing of the model is required, in addition to the more subjective assessments that have been made through the case study work. This would include technical testing, additional sensitivity testing and routine verification.

This project has demonstrated that the Bureau{\textquoteright}s technology and simulation capability, scientific expertise and established relationships with fire agencies can meet the Australian community{\textquoteright}s need to understand the drivers of fire behaviour during the 2019-20 fire season. In doing so, we have further developed and validated our modelling systems and made progress towards their future operational use.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, black summer, coupled, fire-atmosphere, simulations}, issn = {705}, author = {Mika Peace and Barry Hanstrum and Jesse Greenslade and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and Abhik Santra and Jeffrey Kepert and Paul Fox-Hughes and Harvey Ye and Tasfia Shermin and Jeffrey Jones} } @article {bnh-8003, title = {Cultural burning and public sector practice in the Australian Capital Territory}, journal = {Australian Geographer}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, abstract = {

Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management practices captured global attention during the Australian 2019{\textendash}20 {\textquoteleft}Black Summer{\textquoteright}, as a possible method to mitigate bushfire risk; however, these {\textquoteleft}cultural burns{\textquoteright} are no straightforward matter for public sector practice. As the slow, retrospective work to address historical and contemporary discrimination is imperfectly underway, we explore a cultural burning program supported by a government agency in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). In this paper, two co-authors share their experiences helping create a cultural burning program as Aboriginal people but not as Traditional Custodians. We document the steps taken to build support, create opportunities and engage Ngunnawal and Ngambri Traditional Custodians, and identify early positive results and challenging matters being generated. We demonstrate that rather than being restricted by public sector bureaucracy, the ACT cultural burning program has leveraged policy and entwined itself around the machinery of government in a way that accesses resources, creates opportunities and is slowly but surely changing public sector practice. Nonetheless, this is a journey of iteratively learning. It remains that more substantive measures are needed to recognise Traditional Custodianship if the current cultural burning program is to become a more substantial expression of Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} cultural land management.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal fire management, Bushfire, cool burns, cultural burning, natural resource management, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00049182.2021.1917133}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049182.2021.1917133?journalCode=cage20}, author = {Dean Freeman and Bhiamie Williamson and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-8217, title = {Cultural burning in southern Australia}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is so much interest in cultural burning {\textendash} the landscape burns practised by Aboriginal people {\textendash} and its relevance to southern Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire risk, but what is cultural burning? The people to learn from are the First Nations, Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country. Indeed, to really understand requires being part of a cultural burn on Country.

This edited report, as well as the posters available separately online, bring together and uniquely present six diverse personal cultural burning experiences from across southern Australia. These experiences both diverge and align as Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} paths, perspectives and priorities have always diverged and aligned.

Four of the contributions centre on burning one{\textquoteright}s own Country in southern Australia, as shared by Minung/Gnudju kayang (wise woman) Carol Pettersen of the Noongar Nation, Gilgar Gunditj Elder Eileen Alberts of the Gunditjmara Nation, Palawa man Jason Andrew Smith and Ngunnawal murringe (man) Adrian Brown. These experiences range from growing up burning with family and continuing to be involved today, to reigniting cultural burns on lands where it has too long been absent. We also have two stories about roles in university and government as shared by Bundjalung and Wonnarua woman Vanessa Cavanagh\ and Kaytej Elder Wayne ampetyane Davis. They describe how their roles involve learning from and supporting the First Nations, Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country, and the difference when they themselves are involved in burns on their own Country.

This difference is no minor matter: it marks the unique authority and connections held between specific people and places. More than an inter-generational form of land management, cultural burning involves matters of respect, obligation and responsibility with ancestral lands, waters, skies and everything in between. These burns are a cultural practice undertaken by Aboriginal people in relation to Country and kin, connecting and investing in their wellbeing and self-determination, and Australia{\textquoteright}s fire regime.

This authority and connection with Country is the first of four matters that inform the creation of this report. The second matter is the assumption by some people in society that cultural burning is to be imported from northern Australia into southern Australia. This fails to understand that cultural burning only occurs in relation to Country and the people of Country. Further, the cultural burning leaders show how this specific cultural practice has been passed down by families and nation groups to present times in places that are often described as settled and urban. At the same time, knowledge has always been shared by Aboriginal people across the continent, and this is not de-valued.

Third, Aboriginal women have long been marginalised from land management conversations with government and university. In recognition, women come first in this report. As Aunty Carol, Vanessa and Aunty Eileen share, cultural burning practices have intricate and interwoven roles for men and women. We look forward to hearing more such voices as cultural burning becomes better known.

Fourth, cultural burning is about\ healing relationships between Aboriginal\ people and their Country. There has been,\ and continues to be, much physical and other violence directed towards Country and people\ of Country. With climate change, there are even more challenges in this work and even more care needs to be taken. Supporting the healing of these relationships is an important responsibility for non-Indigenous people.

These six individual and shared cultural burning experiences bring to life these four matters and more. You will also see that ten Cultural Burning Principles have been developed. Again, this is to help articulate some of the core matters at hand, which Aboriginal leaders have been raising for generations. These voices can be hard to hear when they are the minority in the room, and so different from the dominant culture of governments and universities.

We are particularly concerned that the groundswell of support for Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management expertise, during and after the catastrophic Black Summer (2019-2020), does not address fundamental misunderstandings about Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management practices. By not addressing these misunderstandings, existing problems become repeated in the new work that is being established around cultural burning.

We hope this report\ and the posters\ will help address this by\ providing the opportunity to see\ a different viewpoint, to stand in\ someone else{\textquoteright}s shoes. This is critical
in developing more respectful\ relationships between Indigenous\ people and non-Indigenous people.\ We are all living together on Country.

Whilst the report and posters cannot compare to the experience of being at a cultural burn, they share realities that are little known in places where important decisions are being made {\textendash} such as the offices of bushfire inquiries, the boardrooms of government agencies, the risk-reduction burns of fire practitioners and the professional practices of university researchers.

We note that cultural burning is a new term to describe burns that in earlier times never needed such a label.

And now, over to our six cultural burning leaders.

}, keywords = {cultural burning, culture, indigenous, southern Australia}, isbn = {978-0-6452058-1-7}, issn = {687}, author = {Jessica Weir and Dean Freeman and Bhiamie Williamson} } @article {bnh-8202, title = {Cultural land management in southeastern Australia - Black Summer final report}, number = {704}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Cultural land management research in southeast Australia project aimed to develop foundations for Indigenous-led and co-designed research programs to support cultural land management into the future. The project explored how to empower and enable Indigenous-led cultural fire and land management practices to improve landscape management and community resilience in southeast Australia.

To these ends, the project team convened a Project Steering Group (PSG) of cultural land management experts and advisors currently engaged in cultural fire management operations or research in New South Wales and Victoria. It also convened a Government Advisory Group and a Research Advisory Group to assist with advice where appropriate. As well as meetings of these Groups, the other key project activity was the conducting of several workshops in select sites to progress regional conversations regarding the potential for Indigenous-led cultural fire and land management research.

Overall, on the basis of these activities, this project concludes that research projects and institutes relating to land and fire management need to proceed from core understandings that:

Further, this project report makes 10 recommendations for action by Natural Hazards Research Australia and research partners to support cultural land management and Indigenous-led and co-designed research programs into the future:

  1. Formal acknowledgement by research organisations of the equivalent value of Indigenous knowledge, practice, and science to Western understandings/knowledge systems. Respect and Recognition of knowledge-holders and cultural land management practice
  2. Recognise the holistic and highly diverse context of Indigenous ways of being and Caring for Country
  3. Make clear commitments to supporting Indigenous people to get on Country and engage in cultural stewardship practices to build the resilience of Country and people\ 
  4. Establish an Indigenous Research Strategy with dedicated research streams/project areas for cultural stewardship research within Natural Hazards Research Australia{\textquoteright}s research agenda that supports Indigenous-led research pathways.
  5. Create avenues to recognise Traditional Owners as research partners/end-users of research funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia
  6. Include Indigenous voice and representation in governance structures of institutions and land management agencies
  7. Establish meaningful and ongoing pathways for Traditional Owner inclusion and consultation, to ensure research agendas and processes reflect Traditional Owner aspirations and priorities
  8. Development of a framework of broad research principles/protocols and processes to guide more ethical and collaborative cultural land management research
  9. Embed multiple aspects of capacity building into research frameworks and processes
  10. Support opportunities for developing Indigenous governance, collaboration, and knowledge sharing

These recommendations are further explained in the Key Findings and Recommendations section below.

We propose a staged approach to utilising this project and these recommendations, to be guided by the project team and an interim Indigenous Research Committee (IRC) consisting of Project Steering Group members:

  1. present the key findings and recommendations to the Natural Hazards Research Australia executive as the basis for developing an Indigenous research strategy
  2. establish Terms of Reference for the Indigenous Research Committee (IRC)
  3. work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify priority recommendations and research projects for implementation in the short, moderate, and longer terms
  4. work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify the resource requirements to implement the recommendations and research projects
  5. co-develop with Indigenous partners and Natural Hazards Research Australia representatives, a cultural land and fire management research agenda and priorities.

1.\ \ \ \  Formal acknowledgement by research organisations of the equivalent value of Indigenous knowledge, practice, and science to Western understandings/knowledge systems. Respect and Recognition of knowledge-holders and cultural land management practice

2.\ \ \ \  Recognise the holistic and highly diverse context of Indigenous ways of being and Caring for Country

3.\ \ \ \  Make clear commitments to supporting Indigenous people to get on Country and engage in cultural stewardship practices to build the resilience of Country and people

4.\ \ \ \  Establish an Indigenous Research Strategy with dedicated research streams/project areas for cultural stewardship research within Natural Hazards Research Australia{\textquoteright}s research agenda that supports Indigenous-led research pathways.

5.\ \ \ \  Create avenues to recognise Traditional Owners as research partners/end-users of research funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia

6.\ \ \ \  Include Indigenous voice and representation in governance structures of institutions and land management agencies

7.\ \ \ \  Establish meaningful and ongoing pathways for Traditional Owner inclusion and consultation, to ensure research agendas and processes reflect Traditional Owner aspirations and priorities

8.\ \ \ \  Development of a framework of broad research principles/protocols and processes to guide more ethical and collaborative cultural land management research

9.\ \ \ \  Embed multiple aspects of capacity building into research frameworks and processes

10.Support opportunities for developing Indigenous governance, collaboration, and knowledge sharing

These recommendations are further explained in the Key Findings and Recommendations section below.

We propose a staged approach to utilising this project and these recommendations, to be guided by the project team and an interim Indigenous Research Committee (IRC) consisting of Project Steering Group members:

1.\ \ \ \  present the key findings and recommendations to the Natural Hazards Research Australia executive as the basis for developing an Indigenous research strategy

2.\ \ \ \  establish Terms of Reference for the Indigenous Research Committee (IRC)

3.\ \ \ \  work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify priority recommendations and research projects for implementation in the short, moderate, and longer terms

4.\ \ \ \  work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify the resource requirements to implement the recommendations and research projects

5.\ \ \ \  co-develop with Indigenous partners and Natural Hazards Research Australia representatives, a cultural land and fire management research agenda and priorities.

}, keywords = {Australia, cultural, indigenous, land, management, southeast}, issn = {704}, author = {Oliver Costello and Tasmin Dilworth and Katharine Haynes and Tony Jansen and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-8149, title = {Damage integrated performance modelling of steel plate girders at elevated temperature}, journal = {Journal of Constructional Steel Research}, volume = {185}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, abstract = {

The design of thin-walled steel plate girder cross-sections is considerably governed by the web instabilities driven by the phenomenon called shear buckling. Change of web geometry due to the partial loss of material in the form of local corrosion of web panels or the loss of mechanical properties caused by elevated temperature amplifies the shear buckling behaviour of girders leading to the loss of ultimate shear capacity significantly. Moreover, steel plate girders with low fire resistance due to their high thermal conductivity and thermal expansion are equally vulnerable to corrosion when exposed to detrimental environmental conditions. This research investigated how the standard fire resistance and elevated temperature buckling resistance of steel plate girders can be affected by the corrosion induced structural deterioration. An advanced Finite Element (FE) modelling procedure was used to evaluate the behaviour of steel plate girders shear behaviour. Some commonly encountered corrosion patterns reported in the literature were simulated. Results revealed both the position and the severity of damage is important for the fire resistance degradation resulting from the reduction in the shear capacity of thin-walled steel girders. Results were also compared with the EN 1993-1-5 design guidelines to achieve a modified formulation. This comparison revealed that depending upon the position and the extent of the corrosion level, the web contribution factor to the shear buckling resistance of a steel plate girder can fall below the Eurocode design guidelines.

}, keywords = {Corrosion damage, Elevated temperature, numerical simulations, Shear buckling, Standard fire resistance, Steel plate girders, Ultimate shear capacity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2021.106821}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0143974X21003035}, author = {Amila Dissanayake and Srikanth Venkatesana and Dilan Roberta and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-7954, title = {Demographic effects of severe fire in montane shrublands on Tasmania{\textquoteright}s Central Plateau}, number = {658}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Australian montane sclerophyll shrubland vegetation is considered to be resilient to infrequent severe fire but this may not be the case in Tasmanian shrublands. Our research reports on the regeneration response of a Tasmanian non-coniferous woody montane shrubland following a severe fire. The 2019 Great Pine Tier fire in the Central Plateau Conservation Area was a severe crown fire that killed all above ground vegetation in the shrubland. Our field survey revealed that less than 1\% of the burnt plants were not top-killed by the fire, and only 5\% of the burnt plants were observed to be resprouting one year following the fire. Such a low resprouting rate means the resilience of the shrubland depends on seedling regeneration from aerial and soil seedbanks or colonisation from plants outside the fire ground. The low number of resprouters within the shrubland suggest that it may not be as resilient to fire as mainland Australian montane shrubland. As a consequence, our research highlights the fragility of the shrubland under a warming climate and potential increase in fire frequency.

}, keywords = {demographic, effects, Fire, montane, severe, shrublands, Tasmania}, issn = {658}, author = {Judy Foulkes and Steven Leonard and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8115, title = {Derivation of a Bayesian fire spread model using large-scale wildfire observations}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, abstract = {

Models that predict wildfire rate of spread (ROS) play an important role in decision-making during firefighting operations, including fire crew placement and timing of community evacuations. Here, we use a large set of remotely sensed wildfire observations, and explanatory data (focusing on weather), to demonstrate a Bayesian probabilistic ROS modelling approach. Our approach has two major advantages: (1) Using actual wildfire observations, instead of controlled fire observations, makes models developed well-suited to wildfire prediction; (2) Bayesian modelling accounts for the complex nature of wildfire spread by explicitly considering uncertainty in the data to produce probabilistic ROS predictions. We show that highly informative probabilistic predictions can be made from a simple Bayesian model containing wind speed, relative humidity and soil moisture. We also compare Bayesian model predictions to those of widely used deterministic ROS models in Australia.

}, keywords = {Wildfire Bushfire Fire behaviour Bayesian Bayesian modelling Rate of Spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105127}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815221001705}, author = {Michael Storey and Bedward, M. and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-8015, title = {Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote north Australian communities - final project report}, number = {670}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Natural hazards in the remote Northern Territory such as cyclones have arguably been managed as best as possible given the typically insubstantial relationships emergency management agencies have with traditional Aboriginal landowners and their wider communities. Preparation and response to the two cyclones, Lam (Feb. 19-20) and Nathan (March 22), that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015 are a case in point, prompting practical research into how we can strengthen existing governance arrangements in remote areas to promote and enrich such relationships. This project extends a suite of projects hosted by Charles Darwin University under the Northern Hub of the Bushfires and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, collectively addressing {\textquoteleft}building capacity in north Australian remote communities.

Under the collective theme of developing effective emergency management partnerships, the project focused on two of the several communities in Arnhem Land struck by cyclones Lam and Nathan {\textendash} Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining.\  Indigenous leadership in these communities were again struck by underlying issues effecting cultural authority, including poor consideration of community members as core players holding significant knowledge and other assets valuable to hazard preparation, response and community reconstruction. Whilst Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku residents, for example, greatly appreciated the effective response delivered by EM agencies, the events and their aftermath also brought to the surface issues of lost cultural authority, disempowerment, and disengagement within the community. They keenly sought support for practical local efforts to better understand and address the trend of marginalization and dependence on external agency management. Similarly, in Ramingining, the elders felt a sense of powerlessness and shame to be onlookers for response efforts that they wished to be active participants of.

NAILSMA (Indigenous research and service provider, co-partner in the Northern Hub of the CRC and project manager) was in a position to offer administrative, logistical, mentoring and other support to Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku{\textquoteright}s leadership. Yalu Maringithinyaraw is a local Yolngu organisation with research interests and capability that was the local host for the work.

ARPNet, an Indigenous research network of community based Aboriginal Research practitioners is hosted by RIEL at CDU. ARPNet researchers have worked together and developed an approach that emphasises putting the community first and have also adapted a set of PAR tools (the ARPNet Dilly bag) that they use. The Network trains, mentors and provides administrative support to a growing network of community-based Indigenous researchers, dedicated to relocating local research effort in local hands and improving the operation and outcomes of research for local communities and those that service them.\ \ \ \  \ 

It{\textquoteright}s well recognised that strong similarities exist amongst communities across the NT and indeed the North, but that each place is unique. In this context, the projects at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining developed relatively independently but highlighted in their collective outcomes important messages for EM agency and others about navigating continuity and difference across Indigenous geographies in their policy making and operations.

It was broadly concluded that government and other agencies need to change the way they do business with Yolngu/Bininj by helping empower traditional owners and clan leaders and improve community engagement to produce more effective service delivery.

Concomitantly, NAILSMA, ARPNet and CDU sought to engage EM leadership across the North and in the BNHCRC community with the research developments as they unfolded in Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining, and to inform the local researchers of the perspectives and logic driving EM organization in relevant jurisdictions. This parallel effort strengthened the strategic need to come together {\textquoteleft}at the table{\textquoteright} to work through practical, fundamental change in the way agencies and communities do business {\textendash} a process anticipated as ongoing.

Recognising the resource-intensive nature of the work, connections were made with related projects to provide mutual support for project activities and partnerships.\  The overall objective of the project was to inform effective EM agency community partnership arrangements in remote communities based on enhanced understanding and empowerment of underlying community governance structures. Lessons learnt from the undertaking of this project were used to develop a {\textquoteleft}protocols framework{\textquoteright} to help inform the development of effective agency-community EM partnerships in remote community locations across northern Australia.

This research has identified a common set of core governance issues (see Findings below) and priorities needing to be acknowledged and addressed to improve implementation of emergency risk management arrangements in remote communities. This work has helped these remote communities, and hopefully others, find voice to more effectively engage in the emergency management conversation, and in partnership building at local and national levels. It has also shown that most agencies involved are open to, if not keenly interested in greater equity with communities in engagement but are uncertain and/or systemically blind to how they may initiate and progress real and effective change in remote EM. There is strong interest from the participating communities to continue their work and engage with other end-users in for example, enhanced local and regional-scale planning; the dissemination of quality, relevant and timely information; building partnership support for community level risk mitigation, disaster management and response. These projects provide a conceptual model and approach for scaling up the project of partnership building to other communities in the NT, WA and Qld, and a basis for understanding the costs and benefits involved in broadscale implementation. Project partners are seeking to progress current projects and offer their experience, skills, tools and relationships developed in these two community endeavors to other community groups seeking to improve the way they, EM and other agencies work together. Project partners believe this to be a good foundation for a regional and national framework approach for EM agency/community engagement and relationship building.

}, keywords = {communities, effective, Emergency management, north australia, partnerships, remote}, issn = {670}, author = {Sithole, B and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Glenn James and Danny Burton and Maratja Dhamarrandji and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie} } @article {bnh-7786, title = {Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote north Australian communities - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {637}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazards in the remote Northern Territory such as cyclones have arguably been managed as best as possible given the typical relationships emergency management agencies have with traditional Aboriginal landowners and their wider communities. Preparation and response to the two cyclones, Nathan and Lam, that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015 are a case in point. This report refers to 2 projects, conducted using NAILSMA support with Yolngu in Galiwinku and ARPNet with Bininj in Ramingining.

Most Yolngu interviewed at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku (which was hit directly) after the cyclones comented that the emergency teams did a good job restoring services and rendering the community safe and habitable in the aftermath and that the response was fairly swift and efficient. The research undertaken by Yolngu in the months after Nathan and Lam was keenly sought because of underlying issues effecting Yolngu authority in their own community, including poor consideration of community members as core players and as assets to preparation, response and reconstruction.

The Yolngu research focused on the cyclone scenario but quickly developed into a frank discussion amongst Yolngu in the community about the status of Yolngu leadership, authority and decision-making and the processes they felt are eroding Yolngu values and community wellbeing. Whilst the influences on Yolngu management of their community are highly complex (cultural, economic and historical) the research confirmed a core of issues around colonial agency virtually unanimously expressed by all respondents. Despite natural right and legal land tenure (Aboriginal land held in fee simple under the ALR(NT) Act 1976)0F\ [1] government and NGO services and activities in Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku are increasdingly undertaken with external mandate only and prosecuted by non-Yolngu agents in English (still a subornitate language locally to the Yolngu lingua franca), guided by external agendas and success criteria1F\ [2].\ \ \ \ 

Community leaders concluded that they needed to reinstate Yolngu authority based in Yolngu law to provide a forum through which emergency management and other agencies can offer and deliver services more effectively. Whilst not a new idea, the structure they settled on (named the Dalkarra and Djirrikay Authority - DDA) developed without hosting or direction from non-Yolngu organisations. The CRC northern hub projects enabled NAILSMA to provide basic financial, logistical and administrative support, as requested by community leaders, playing a crucial role in buttressing culturally appropriate Yolngu-controlled participatory research and resilience building activities since the 2015 cyclones.

The DDA has been a forum in which community tensions have been sensitively managed in order to engage effectively with service providers including emergency management agencies. The DDA has many challenges (internal and external) but has recently engaged with a CRC supported {\textquoteleft}sister{\textquoteright} initiative at Ramingining to share experiences and discuss views on ways forward. Despite operating independently, the Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining groups identified common concerns, and expressed an interest in obtaining mutual support and developing an agreed approach to anticipated face to face communication with the NT Comissioner for Police Jamie Chalker.\ \ 

For Ramingining, the focus was placed on why communities felt the response to Cyclones Lam and Nathan had not worked as well as they would have wanted. \ The community owned research at Ramingining was undertaken by the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet). ARPNet considered how the Bininj system can link up with the Balanda decision making system in a way that would improve on-ground engagement and developed a comprehensive list of protocols (see Utilisation and impact section).

Yolngu and Bininj experiences post cyclones Nathan and Lam challenge the current models for disaster response which focus on volunteer assistance.\  Yolngu/Bininj have a great deal to offer hazard assessment, preparation and response. Equitable and authoritative involvement for Yolngu/Bininj in all aspects of EM management is the only way to maximize positive EM outcomes. Local knowledge, skills and assets could be properly investigated, supported and developed to involve Yolngu/Bininj in producing more effective EM outcomes.\  This is demonstrated, for example, in environmental services by paid ranger groups undertaking complex land and sea management activities.

NAILSMA, ARPNet and CDU have also been working in parallel across other jurisdictions of northern Australia, and in government spheres in the NT, to understand and help progress more equitable and functional relationships in the emergency management space. This {\textquoteleft}global{\textquoteright} part of the project story is of significant interest to the Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining groups who seek the opportunity for the NT Partnership projects to engage directly with emergency management leadership. It has also given them a sense of common interest and comradery with countrymen interstate and raised an awareness for future possibilities in their own endeavours.

This BNHCRC research project is near complete, but for Indigenous leaders of Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining this important effort over the last few years has created a foundation for real change. They are at the beginning and with some clarity now about what needs to be done. \ Their research has identified key issues impeding efficiency in emergency management and response and the delivery of more desirable outcomes for remote Indigenous communities. In order to progress the dialogue created by this research toward more practical and tangible end use outcomes, the {\textquoteleft}next steps{\textquoteright} of a broader project need to be realised.


[1]\  The Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act, 1976 is Federal Government legislation granting communal freehold title to traditional Aboriginal land-owners in the form of Land Trusts (managed by the relevant NT Land Councils created under that legislation) in the Northern Territory only. Aboriginal Land Trusts are inalienable freehold.

[2] Whilst Yolngu acknowledge the need for many of the services provided it{\textquoteright}s the manner in which they are designed and provided that they feel disempowers them and at times contradicts the services and embeds bad protocol {\textendash} for example, complex community emergency response plans in English, kept at the police station; de-funding homelands; priveliging English over the natural language in schools; arbitrary and disconnected creation of Yolngu steering committees or reference groups to support government agency work; or the formation of a community committees such as to discuss COVID 19 issues and responses, a{\textquoteright}priori made up of non-Yolngu community agents. . . Whether constituted in the ways thus described, the strong perception by and effect on Yolngu is of deliberate dis-enfranchisement in their own community.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management partnerships, remote north Australia}, issn = {637}, author = {Glenn James and Sithole, B and Danny Burton and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-8283, title = {Development of a national set of Community Service Announcements for flood risk}, number = {706}, year = {2021}, month = {11/21}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report details a five-month utilisation project linked to the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC {\textquoteleft}Flood Risk Communication{\textquoteright} core research project[1]. The project aim was to deliver a nationally agreed set of public flood risk messages, informed by research and agreed by a national working group comprising SES representatives from all Australian states and territories.

Specifically, the messages developed in this project are {\textquoteleft}Community Service Announcements{\textquoteright} (CSAs) intended for initial use by ABC Emergency. These CSAs would typically be used in radio broadcasts during or in the lead up to, significant flood or storm events.

These CSAs are messages of around 30 {\textendash} 60 seconds duration; however, they may be combined to produce longer segments. In rolling emergency broadcasts, they provide breaks between status updates and warnings from the relevant state or territory emergency services and on-the-ground reporting. These flood CSAs contain public safety information about flood risks, desired behaviours and calls to action, and sources of help or support.

The project was highly collaborative, made possible by the creation of a Flood CSA working group (CSA WG). The CSA WG comprised representatives of all state and territory emergency service agencies with responsibility for response in floods, mostly State Emergency Services (SES), along with a representative of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and representatives from the CSA product end user {\textendash} ABC Emergency. This group was facilitated and supported by the report author and research Chief Investigator (CI) who also worked to incorporate research informed insights into the messaging, and a partner investigator (PI) from the research end user organisation, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC).\ 

The project comprised three stages: scoping; co-development; testing and finalising.

  1. SCOPING - this stage used consensus decision-making to identify and prioritise message topics and content areas.
  2. CO-DEVELOPMENT{\textendash} this stage involved message drafting and iterative review by the CSA WG to agree a provisional set of CSA messages.
  3. TESTING AND FINALISING {\textendash} this stage involved testing of the CSA messages through a series of focus groups with the public and a final round of review and refining based on their feedback to produce the final set of CSAs.

The final stage in this project is the end user production of the CSAs, i.e., professional recording and implementation ready for use. This last stage is outside the scope of the BNHCRC-funded project.

This report included details of the approaches taken and the outcomes in Stages 1 to 3.

The scoping stage of the project included use of a survey to aid the consensus process. Following agreement on the main content areas the second stage was co-development. In this stage the CSA WG was divided into small cross-jurisdictional {\textquoteleft}cluster{\textquoteright} groups to draft messages in two or three content areas, and this was followed by a whole-of-group iterative review process. A set of 26 provisional CSA messages were produced at the end of this stage.

In the final stage the ABC end user produced a set of first-pass audio recordings of each CSA. These were used for message testing with the public. Seven virtual focus groups were run with a total of 39 members of the public. Sample demographics were collected during this process to ensure national coverage across the sample and inclusion of a mix of genders, ages, and flood exposure. In addition, based on CSA message content, important sample characteristics were monitored to ensure inclusion of relevant target audiences in the sample, i.e., parents of younger children and youths/teenagers, drivers, large and small animal owners, and people living in rural locations.

Message testing included assessment of initial impressions, message understanding (words, structure), message ambiguity (intent, confusion), and relevance/utility to self and other. Focus group feedback was then fed back into a final set of edits for a last series of reviews and refining to produce the final set of agreed CSAs.

Nationally agreed Community Service Announcements

The final set of Flood CSAs comprises 26 messages. This includes messages that can be used in all phases of flood and storm events, although the majority are designed for use during an event. The messages cover a broad range of flood risk content including the need to prepare and leave early, risks associated with driving in floods, storms, and flash flooding, playing, and having contact with floodwater, issues for a range of animal owners, and safety considerations when cleaning up after flooding.

Following finalisation of the CSAs, these messages were approved by the AFAC SES Community Safety Group on 28 October 2021. These messages and the approach taken to develop them has now been written into an AFAC Procedural Guideline, which was endorsed by AFAC Council on 28 October 2021 and is available via the AFAC website[1].

The ABC has also finalised the production of the CSAs and these were distributed and available for broadcast from 8 November 2021.

Although the CSAs were created in response to a request by the ABC, and with their involvement, there is the opportunity for other broadcasters to use them too. It is important that those interested in using these CSAs consult the local State Emergency Service agency on which messages will be broadcast to ensure that this messaging complements and reinforces emergency services{\textquoteright} communications during the flood/storm emergency.

}, keywords = {communication, community service announcements, Emergency, flood risk}, issn = {706}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-7881, title = {Development of fragility functions for rigid-frame bridges subjected to tsunami-induced hydrodynamic forces}, journal = {Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

The rigid-frame bridges with a fully continuous moment connection between the superstructure and substructure piers are suitable for high-seismic regions; however, research on the response of these bridge types under tsunami loads is limited. This paper presents a framework for developing fragility functions of coastal rigid-frame bridges, and bridges with strong pier-to-deck connectivity, undergoing tsunami-induced hydrodynamic loads. The fragility analysis is demonstrated on a three-span reinforced concrete (RC) bridge structure with double-column bents. The Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to consider the uncertainties in capacity and demand parameters. The efficiency of single-parameter and two-parameter intensity measures for predicting the response of bridges is examined. The viability of strengthening bridge piers using fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) is also investigated. The results indicate that the use of two-parameter intensity measures is a better option to estimate the structural response since the hydrodynamic forces are a function of both the flow depth and velocity. This also leads to a significant reduction in the scatter of fragility data. The comparative assessment of the initial and FRP-strengthened bridges highlights that the FRP-jacketing is an effective method in reducing the risk of failure of the rigid-frame bridges.

}, keywords = {Coastal bridges, fiber-reinforced polymers, fragility model, hydrodynamic loads, numerical simulations, strengthening, structural safety, tsunami}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2021.1892774}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15732479.2021.1892774}, author = {Ismail Qeshta and Javad Hashemi and M. Reza Hashemi and Rebecca Gravina and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-8112, title = {Disaster resilience in Australia: A geographic assessment using an index of coping and adaptive capacity}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {62}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, abstract = {

This paper reports a national-scale assessment of disaster resilience, using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index. The index assesses resilience at three levels: overall capacity for disaster resilience; coping and adaptive capacity; and, eight themes of disaster resilience across social, economic and institutional domains. About 32\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population (7.6 million people) live in an area assessed as having high capacity for disaster resilience. About 52\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population (12.3 million people) live in an area assessed as having moderate capacity for disaster resilience. The remaining 16\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population (3.8 million people) live in an area assessed as having low capacity for disaster resilience. Distribution of disaster resilience in Australia is strongly influenced by a geography of remoteness. Most metropolitan and inner regional areas were assessed as having high capacity for disaster resilience. In contrast, most outer regional, remote and very remote areas were assessed as having low capacity for disaster resilience, although areas of low capacity for disaster resilience can occur in metropolitan areas. Juxtaposed onto this distribution, themes of disaster resilience highlight strengths and barriers to disaster resilience in different communities. For example, low community capital and social cohesion is a disaster resilience barrier in many metropolitan areas, but higher community capital and social cohesion in outer regional and some remote areas supports disaster resilience. The strategic intent of a shared responsibility for disaster resilience can benefit from understanding the spatial distribution of disaster resilience, so that policies and programmes can address systemic influences on disaster resilience.

}, keywords = {Composite index, disaster resilience, indicators, National scale assessment, Systemic risk}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102422}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420921003836?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Peter Hastings and Graham Marshall and Judith McNeill and Richard Stayner and Sonya Glavac} } @article {bnh-7903, title = {Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability {\textendash} final project report}, number = {655}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2016, the emergency management sector (EMS) acknowledged that action was needed to address the low representation of diversity in its workforce. This was being driven by a moral imperative to better represent the communities they serve (AFAC, 2016). The role of the EMS was also changing in response to ongoing unprecedented natural hazard events and the need for more strategic approaches to building resilience. This meant renegotiating the relationship between emergency management organisations (EMOs) and their communities, reinforcing the importance of D\&I. This brought to the fore the need to understand how to improve the effectiveness and value of D\&I in EMOs.

The main goal of the three-year project was to work with those in the sector engaged in D\&I practice and develop an evidence-based framework capable of supporting more effective management and measurement of D\&I. This was carried out in three phases: (1) understanding the context, (2) development of the framework, and (3) testing. Each phase was subject to annual review and the program was adjusted in response to the outcomes of those reviews.

The project used the {\textquoteleft}working from the inside out{\textquoteright} methodology to provide the framework for its activities (see p17 for details). This is a transdisciplinary approach that aims to develop workable solutions to seemingly intractable problems through collaborative research codesigned with end-users. The transdisciplinary aspect integrates different knowledge systems. It starts with understanding user needs and context, surveys available knowledge from a wide range of sources, puts this knowledge into a format that can be used in practice, and lastly tests the research outputs and refines this with end-users. The process is iterative with the key features of systemic assessments, integration into decision-making systems, translation, learning, adjustment and communication with end-users. Its key purpose is to ensure that research is fit-for-purpose and useable.


Following the scoping phase of the research project, three lines of inquiry were established to analyse the key systems that most directly influence D\&I for EMOs {\textendash} organisational, economic and community. A mixed methods approach was undertaken that incorporated case studies, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, decision-making assessments, desktop reviews of organisational documents, informal and formal literature, and ongoing review and feedback with end-users.

The initial literature review (Young et al, 2018a) assessed where D\&I practice was considered effective, the contributing factors to effectiveness and its benefits throughout the emergency services. It also reviewed the organisational change and innovation literature. In more recent years, the literature has changed focus from addressing diversity towards understanding the role of inclusion. It highlights the role of systemic approaches and the importance of understanding context in relation to achieving effective outcomes. The literature had stagnated in some areas, with few examples of successful implementation. The emergency services were not well-represented.

The final conclusion was that there were no suitable frameworks available and that information about the specific contexts for D\&I in the emergency services was limited. To provide a focus for the project and to inform practice, a definition of effective diversity (see p16) was developed.

We undertook case studies in three EMOs to inform the sectoral context. D\&I was present in all organisations, but not well-integrated into systems and processes, or connected to day-to-day decision making and tasks. The largest barrier was culture, and the largest need was in the area of management. Strategic vision and supportive organisational frameworks and processes were limited, resulting in shorter term, reactive approaches dominating the implementation of D\&I.

Predominantly response-based and hierarchical cultures and tactical decision making were often at odds with the more strategic-based softer skills required for D\&I. Many activities had not been effectively socialised or communicated, resulting in confusion, fear, resistance and difficult behaviours. There were also cultural gaps between upper and lower tiers in organisations. Implementation often focused on {\textquoteleft}obtaining (gender-based) diversity quotas{\textquoteright}, and rather than creating an inclusive culture, was felt to have polarised gender-based issues. There was a lack of awareness of what constituted appropriate language use and behaviours in relation to diverse communities and individuals. There was also no compelling narrative as to why it would be a business imperative or even perceived as such.

At the end of phase one, key components for the framework were identified. These were organised across the following areas: a strategic process of change, a programmatic continuous-improvement process and organic bottom-up growth. To develop these, further mapping and investigation of skills and capabilities in organisations and communities, and greater understanding of the economic value generated by programs were needed.

A turning point for the project was during phase two, following the {\textquoteleft}Into the future: building skills and capabilities for a diverse and inclusive workforce{\textquoteright} workshop in December 2018. Exploration of three scenarios revealed the extent of D\&I-related risk to EMOs. These related to the mitigation and management of social, human and innovation risk. These were not being formally managed or, in some cases, even recognised. It also highlighted the need to manage innovation risk during implementation activities. A better understanding of these risks provided the connection between day-to-day tasks and the business imperative for EMOs.

The participants in the workshop displayed a high level of skill and capability in these areas. Other work undertaken with Women and Firefighting Australasia (WAFA) indicated that the sector was becoming more aware of these risks, but needed further development of systems, skills and capabilities to manage them.

The risks associated with D\&I are not new, but are still largely unrecognised as part of formal risk management within organisations. Skills and capabilities associated with D\&I practice were, for the most part, being given a lower priority than those required to manage more established and accepted risks. If left unmanaged, D\&I risks are likely to {\textquoteleft}impair the ability of EMOs to perform their functions effectively{\textquoteright} (Young et al, 2019). \ 

Two economic case studies highlighted the benefits that could be achieved by successful programs. The Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) program produced $20.00 of benefits for every dollar invested (Rasmussen and Maharaj, 2019). However, existing economic models need further development before programs for different cultural cohorts can be comprehensively assessed. Appropriate data also needs to be collected from the beginning of programs to support this.

The community case studies (Pyke, 2018b; Macdonald, 2020a, 2020b) illustrated some of the complexities in relation to the capabilities of diverse cohorts and young people, but each has its own context that needs further exploration. Although culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities have many capabilities, these have not been examined with respect to various needs, so are unlikely to be harnessed effectively in an inclusive manner (Pyke, 2018b; MacDonald, 2020a).

The final D\&I framework \ (Young and Jones, 2020) is constructed around four components:

This is developed to be flexible and adaptable, to aid decision making in a range of different contexts, and to be useful in full or in parts, depending on the situation an organisation may encounter and the context is which this is occurring. The strategic and programmatic processes are supported by guidance that outlines the key phases and question-focused considerations for practitioners (Young and Jones, 2020) and three practitioner manuals (Macdonald, 2020a; Ooi, 2020; Young et al, 2020). Progress over the three years of the project has culminated in the following conclusive statements (Young and Jones, 2020):

Common aspects found to support effective programs include:

This project has experienced a high level of uptake and use during its three-year term. This has been aided by the sector{\textquoteright}s focus on progressing the D\&I agenda, and the work of peak agencies and end-user organisations to develop programs and leadership. It has also contributed to the repositioning of the D\&I agenda as a risk-based business imperative, and has developed and provided materials to support the integration of D\&I into resilience, risk and workforce planning frameworks. Its effectiveness and impact are due to the collaboration and commitment of the end-user group who have actively participated, supported and promoted the work over the life of the project.

Considerable work is still needed in developing measurement protocols, particularly those related to economic evaluation and the effectiveness of inclusion. Further work is also needed to identify and document the specific capabilities and skills needed to support this. As D\&I is a long-term and dynamic issue, longitudinal evaluation is needed to assess returns on investment, ensure that visibility is maintained, and deeper understandings continue to develop.\ 

The final framework, which has been developed in close collaboration with practitioners in EMOs, provides a basis on which to build. The collateral from this study also captures and consolidates some of the considerable knowledge that already exists within these organisations to be used as reference material. This project has shown that achieving truly diverse and inclusive organisations is a long road, but it is one that EMOs are already travelling.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {655}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and McDonald, F and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-8038, title = {Economic Analysis Screening Tool: Guidelines}, number = {665}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This document provides an overview of the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) and its development, as well as the instructions on how to use it and how to interpret the results derived from it. EATS was developed by researchers from the University of Western Australia as part of the BNHCRC funded project {\textquotedblleft}Economics of Natural Hazards.{\textquotedblright}

These Guidelines should be used in conjunction with EAST and should be considered an integral part of the Tool package. We recommend users read these Guidelines before using EAST.

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economic, guidelines, screening, tool}, issn = {665}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-8120, title = {Economics of natural hazards - final project report}, number = {666}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key aim of our project was to provide evidence on the economic, social, and environmental impacts of natural hazards, in order to help hazard managers make better decisions about the allocation of resources for the mitigation of natural hazards impacts. Using the tools and materials we have created in this project, our end-users will be better equipped to estimate the tangible (market) and intangible (non-market) impacts of natural hazards and assess how mitigation investments may reduce those impacts.

With this aim in mind, our main focus has been the development of tools and materials that make it easier for natural hazards managers to estimate the value of mitigation, integrate intangible (non-market) values in economic analyses of mitigation, and evaluate the difference it makes to include non-market values. Our goal has always been to provide managers with the tools they need to be able to make better decisions and have the evidence to back up their decisions.

Our project delivered 5 key outcomes:

  1. We launched an online platform for the Value Tool for Natural Hazards (a searchable database of the best available non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards).
  2. We conducted a non-market valuation study that filled a major knowledge gap identified in the non-market values literature (i.e. the values of cultural heritage, social disruption and mental health, and how these are affected by natural hazards) and updated the Value Tool with the data from this study.
  3. We developed the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) for the evaluation of the (market and non-market) costs and benefits of mitigation options.
  4. We created a Free Online Video Course on the economics of natural hazards, using drawings and simple examples to explain key economic concepts and how they are applied to evaluate different mitigation options.
  5. We conducted an online training course on how to use economics in natural hazards management and delivered it to 4 different groups of end-user managers and practitioners.

All outcomes of the project had a utilisation focus and were developed in conjunction with our end-users. We spent a significant amount of time understanding our end-users{\textquoteright} challenges in order to create products that can help them make better decisions using economic analysis. We used their feedback to improve the tools developed and make them more accessible.

The work from this project has been published in 4 peer-reviewed publications, 8 conference papers and technical reports, 3 posters presented at conferences, and 4 online resources (see Project Publications section in this report).

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economics, mitigation, Natural hazards, natural hazards management, Policy, Value Tool}, issn = {666}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-8316, title = {Elephant Hill: Secw{\'e}pemc leadership and lessons learned from the collective story of wildfire recovery}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, pages = {241}, institution = { Secwepemcúl ̓ ecw Restoration and Stewardship Society}, abstract = {

Worldwide, catastrophic wildfires and the ongoing climate crisis are catalyzing Indigenous peoples to re-assert jurisdiction to lands and waters by leading the recovery and restoration of their/our territories.

{\textquoteleft}Mega-fires{\textquoteright} are increasingly burning landscapes that have been degraded by over a century of colonial state-driven forest (mis)management and a paradigm {\textendash} and paradox {\textendash} of fire suppression. Simultaneously, many settler-colonial governments are stating their commitments to {\textquoteleft}reconciliation{\textquoteright} and implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Together, these two trends point to the critical need to uphold Indigenous rights and stewardship systems through Indigenous-led transformation of forest and (wild)fire management.

These ecological and socio-political shifts provided the context for the 2017 {\textquoteleft}Elephant Hill{\textquoteright} wildfire in British Columbia (BC), Canada, which burned close to 200,000 hectares throughout Secwepemcúl ̓ ecw {\textendash} the traditional and unceded territory of the Secw{\'e}pemc Nation. In the immediate wake of this fire, and the significant and interconnected social, cultural, economic and ecological impacts that are still ongoing, affected Secw{\'e}pemc First Nations advocated for Secw{\'e}pemc leadership in the recovery and regeneration of their territories in the months, years and decades to come.

Supported by a newly-elected provincial government with a mandate to advance reconciliation, and a provincial review that recommended {\textquotedblleft}establish[ing] Indigenous Peoples as true partners and leaders in emergency management{\textquotedblright}, Secw{\'e}pemc communities partnered with the provincial government to forge a new collaborative approach to land-based wildfire recovery. The Elephant Hill wildfire, and the joint recovery process that followed, is the focus of this report. We draw on in-depth interviews with Secw{\'e}pemc elected leadership and staff from communities and the provincial government, as well as ongoing work and action research with the Secwepemcúlecw\ Restoration and Stewardship Society, to provide a detailed account of this example of contemporary Indigenous leadership in wildfire management and land-based recovery.

This study was framed by a number of broad questions:

To highlight these lessons and demonstrate the need for transformative change, the story of the Elephant Hill wildfire and the joint leadership approach to wildfire recovery is told in four Parts:

PART 1: THE ELEPHANT HILL WILDFIRE (CHAPTERS 1{\textendash}4)

An overview of the record-breaking 2017 wildfire season in British Columbia; the experiences and responses of Secw{\'e}pemc First Nations and government agencies; and the impacts of these wildfires on Secw{\'e}pemc territories and communities.

PART 2: THE PROCESS FOR JOINT WILDFIRE RECOVERY (CHAPTERS 5{\textendash}7)

Understanding the drivers for collaboration; the process of negotiating the scope and governance of joint wildfire recovery; and a summary of land-based recovery activities and outcomes on Elephant Hill.

PART 3: REFLECTIONS ON {\textquoteleft}SUCCESS{\textquoteright} AND LESSONS LEARNED (CHAPTERS 8{\textendash}10)

Diverse views of {\textquoteleft}success{\textquoteright} and identification of key strengths, challenges and unresolved tensions to inform future collaborations.

PART 4: BEYOND ELEPHANT HILL (CHAPTERS 11{\textendash}13)

Persistent barriers; Secw{\'e}pemc priorities for advancing equal partnerships and First Nations leadership in (wild)fire management; and Secw{\'e}pemc visions for recovery, restoration and stewardship throughout Secwepemcúlecw.

}, keywords = {collaboration, Indigenous knowledge, Indigenous rights, leadership, reconciliation, stewardship, Wildfire, wildfire recovery}, isbn = {ISBN 978-1-7780135-1-5}, url = {https://www.srssociety.com/lessonslearned.htm}, author = {Sarah Dickson-Hoyle and Char John} } @article {bnh-8133, title = {Embedding non-technical skills as part of core business in emergency management - Final project report Part A}, number = {693}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Non-technical skills are increasingly being seen as a vital part of effective performance in industries where there is a high potential for catastrophic outcomes (such as medicine, maritime, aviation and the military). In these industries non-technical skills have become an integral part of core business and a variety of tools and training programs have been developed to support and enhance their use. Emergency management has been somewhat slower to adopt non-technical skills management programs, although such programs are now starting to emerge. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC has been instrumental in facilitating research in non-technical skills over the last 10 years and a reasonable body of work has emerged on non-technical skills. This project draws together much of this body of work by providing an overarching integrative framework and by developing a set of training materials that can be used to train people in emergency management. This set of materials is an important resource that can help the adoption of non-technical skills by agencies so that they come to be seen as core business.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, non-technical skills, teamwork}, issn = {693}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Peter Hayes} } @article {bnh-7791, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {638}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project is a three-year project being jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). Now in its final year, it is the core project in the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering. The goal of this cluster is to improve the long-term sustainability of the emergency management volunteer workforce and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project has two broad aims, each of which is addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complements other active BNHCRC research projects, especially in the emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects). It also draws from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University (Birch, 2011) and the BNHCRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University (B. J. McLennan, Kruger, Handmer, \& Whittaker, 2017; B. J. McLennan, Whittaker, Kruger, \& Handmer, 2017).\ 

This Annual Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in the 2019-2020 financial year. This was the third year of the project (see also B. J. McLennan et al., 2018). The research phase of the project is due to end in December 2020.

}, keywords = {Emergency, sustainable, volunteering. recruitment}, issn = {638}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-8139, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering {\textendash} final project report}, number = {695}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project was jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC). It is the only core project in the CRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering that is in active research phase. The goal of this cluster was to improve the long-term sustainability of the volunteer workforce, and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project had two broad aims, each of which was addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complemented other active CRC research projects, especially in the Emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects).\ It also drew from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University.\ 

This Final Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in its entirety from July 2017, up to March 2021. It also describes a range of follow-on utilisation activities being undertaken from July 2020 to June 2021.

}, keywords = {Emergency, recruitment, sustainable, volunteering}, issn = {695}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-8278, title = {Encouraging evacuation: the role of behavioural message inputs in bushfire warnings}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

In catastrophic bushfires or wildfires, warnings are issued by emergency service organisations to inform communities about the hazard and provide guidance about protective actions. Long-form warnings are complemented by shorter social media warnings that preference content about hazard severity. Warnings that do not include clear behavioural guidance can challenge clarity and community uptake. However, there has been little research that examines and compares existing warnings with those constructed to encourage behavioural intentions. In this study, we follow the Protective Action Decision Model and first identify cues that predict evacuation intentions. Next, we compare existing long-form and social media warnings with those modified to include behavioural advice and instruction to examine their effect on clarity and ease of action and protective action intentions. Findings show how the inclusion of behavioural inputs into social media warnings enhances protective action intentions, offering evidence to specifically support changes to existing practice.

}, keywords = {Behavioural inputs, bushfires, Evacuation, warning}, issn = {2212-4209}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102673}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921006348}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Scott Murray and Ryan McAndrew and Michaela Jackson and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-8016, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road structures: bridges, culvers and floodways under natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {671}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts and floodways are lifeline road structures and part of road networks, which have a significant role in ensuring resilience of a community before, during and after a natural disaster. Historical data demonstrates that the failure of road structures can have catastrophic consequences on a community affected by disaster due to the impact on evacuation and post disaster recovery.\  The main objective of the project is to understand the vulnerability of critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bush fire and earthquakes. Once the level of vulnerability is established, the evaluation of importance of the structures for prioritization for hardening is important for decision making by road authorities.

The project funded by the BNH CRC addressed the above gap in knowledge through a comprehensive research program undertaken in collaboration with three research partners and six end user partners. In the first stage of the project, major failure scenarios and the consequences of failure were identified as a precursor for a focused research program on vulnerability modelling and prioritization of road structures under natural hazards. The research conducted included assessment of vulnerability of road bridges under flood, bush fire and earthquakes and floodways and culverts under flood. Further, three approaches were used to identify the consequences of failure of road structures under natural hazards: economic impact on the closure of structures on the community, prioritization of structures using analytical techniques and post disaster social, economic and environmental impacts of failure of road structures.

Major findings of the research include identification of the levels of hazard exposure which could lead to failure of structures and the other parameters affecting failure. Further, methods of modeling road structures under different loading regimes has been developed with case studies of typical structures. New design approaches for building back better have been proposed for floodway structures based on parametric analysis of typical types of floodways.

Major findings of the analysis of bridges under flood loading include (a) the current design process in the design standards for log and object impact are unconservative and rigorous analysis is recommended (b) when the flood velocity is over 4 m/s and the flood level reaches the soffit of the bridge deck, the failure probability of the bridge decks are very high. (c) particle size near the bridge pier foundations have a significant impact on the scour of bridge piers and placement of irregular shaped crushed rock at river-bed level can reduce the scour failure. Research conducted on impact of bush fires on composite structures indicated that the shear failure of the web of the girders is the major failure mode. Under earthquake loading, a major finding is that in the areas where peak ground acceleration is over 0.08g, girder bridges could have a high failure probability and a risk mitigation strategy is essential.

Three different tools are developed for determining the impact of failure of road structures considering economic as well as social, environmental and economic impacts.

A major utilisation outcome of the project is a resilient floodway design guide, published in collaboration with the Institution of Public Works Engineers Australia (Qld) (IPWEAQ). A utilisation project is currently in progress jointly funded by the IPWEAQ and BNH CRC. The guide has been reviewed by the IPWEAQ and is currently being revised by the researchers to enable uptake by local council Engineers. An asset management and vulnerability modeling tool for bridges has been developed for the DoT Victoria (formerly known as VicRoads) where the bridges prone to significant damage are highlighted in a GIS map of the road network.

There are two different models developed to evaluate the consequences of the failure of road structures: first considering economic impact of detour required and a second model capturing post disaster social environmental and economic impact of failure of road structures. The first tool has been incorporated into the vulnerability modeling GIS platform developed for \ the DoT, Victoria.

In addition to the above deliverables in the BNH CRC project, two subsidiary projects were undertaken to understand the effect of cyclonic events on bridge structures and also resilience of timber bridges under natural disasters.

The research team is working with the end users to socialize the vulnerability modeling and decision-making tools developed to enable optimized decision making to enhance resilience of road structures under natural hazards. This is currently being continued with direct funding from the DoT, Victoria.

}, keywords = {Bridge, critical, culvert, enhancing, Floodway, Natural hazards, resilience, road, structure}, issn = {671}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Priyan Mendis and Karu Karunasena and Kevin Zhang and Dilanthi Amaratunga and Weena Lokuge and Nilupa Herath and Long Shi and Hessam Mohseni and Huu Tran and Kanishka Atapattu} } @article {bnh-8189, title = {Established and emerging uses of predictive services in Victoria}, number = {697}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The recent 2019-20 Black Summer bushfire season brought both sector and public attention to the important role that predictive services can play in mitigating and preventing the loss of life and assets from bushfires.

This research study focused on two key questions:

  1. What are the key features of effective relationships between Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBANs) and their users within emergency management?
  2. How might the predictive services role and predictive services outputs be developed in the future?

We explored these questions by conducting twenty-five (25) semi-structured interviews with key practitioners who either perform the FBAN role or use predictive services in Victoria.

Our findings are categorised into 7 topics:

1. Interviewee background: The interviewees included people who represent the following operational roles: FBAN, State Regional Commander, State Agency Commander, Level 3 Incident Controller, Level 3 Public Information Officer, Level 3 Planning Officer, Level 3 Operations Officer, and Level 3 Situation Officer.

2. FBAN outputs: We collected data from FBANs and other operations staff who occupy roles which interact with and/or use the outputs produced by FBANs from within the broad emergency and incident control arrangements provided for within the Australasian Inter-service Incident Management System.

We found that the FBAN advice and products are used to:

Most interviewees agreed that the design and framing of outputs should be standardised for public dissemination, however, there was less consensus that such standardisation is required for operational purposes.

3. Trust in FBAN outputs: We found that in general:

Trust is an important factor in the high-pressure contexts of incident and land management, including both interpersonal trust and trust in particular tools and systems. We found that trust seems to depend, in part, upon users{\textquoteright} perceptions of a given FBAN{\textquoteright}s skills, level of experience, and knowledge of the area or context in which they are offering predictive intelligence. For FBANs, both having fireground experience and {\textquotedblleft}local knowledge{\textquotedblright} and being able to convince users that one has fireground experience and {\textquotedblleft}local knowledge{\textquotedblright} seem to be important factors in eliciting the trust of some users.

4. Timeliness of FBAN outputs: We explored whether FBANs produced advice and outputs in a timely manner. We found that:

For example, a {\textquotedblleft}quick and dirty{\textquotedblright} map of potential fire spread was seen to be acceptable during first attack. However, the pressure related to timeliness decreases during an extended attack and is substantially decreased during pre-event planning and planned burning, or in any instance where there is potentially more time for FBANs to converse with end-users, collect and validate intelligence and tailor the outputs to the end-users{\textquoteright} needs.

5. Benefits of releasing FBAN outputs publicly: We explored whether participants felt predictive outputs produced by FBANs (e.g., fire spread predictions) should be released to the community (i.e., affected communities and the general public) to facilitate their decision-making and planning during periods of significantly elevated fire danger (e.g., days of {\textquotedblleft}Extreme{\textquotedblright} fire danger rating). We found that:

Participants noted that there is a moral imperative to release information to assist members of the public in their decision-making in relation to fire hazards. Further, there was a sense amongst many participants that, by releasing FBAN products publicly, emergency management organisations could support trust-building between agencies and communities and better demonstrate their transparency and accountability when working with the community to plan for and respond to bushfires.

6. Risks of releasing FBAN products publicly: We explored with the participants whether they felt that it was a risk to release FBAN outputs to the community to facilitate their decision-making and planning on days of significantly elevated fire danger. In general, participants reported that there were low levels of risk associated with releasing FBAN outputs to the community to facilitate community decision-making and planning.

We found that, where there was unease amongst participants in relation to releasing FBAN outputs publicly, it was because of:

7. The future of the FBAN role: We explored whether participants felt that the FBAN role will continue to be important within the broad emergency and incident control arrangements. We found that:

With this in mind, it is important to understand that the development of predictive services must ensure that it is further integrated into emergency management arrangements outside the State Control Centre. Specifically, viewed in relation to other project findings, it is clear that for such development and integration to be effective, FBANs will be required to spend more time interacting with users. Such interactions may sometimes occur outside fire seasons, though it is also apparent that they also need to occur throughout the fire season, on firegrounds and in Incident Management Centres and Regional Control Centres, in order to grow FBANs{\textquoteright} skillsets, maintain trust with users, educate users about their outputs and adapt those outputs to user needs. Various users had suggestions about how predictive services might better serve their needs, the vast majority of which related to the refinement of output types and modes of presentation to incidents and situations as they emerge.

Following this feedback also means exploring the different ways that FBAN skillsets and competencies can be used to assist key decision-makers such as Incident Controllers and community information and warning teams which continue to be so important in terms of planning and responding to bushfires. These skillsets and competencies - at both state and regional levels - also have relevant application to conduct of planned burning, and both users and FBANs suggest that more use can be made of FBAN skillsets and competencies to assist the states land and fire management agencies in achieving fuel management goals.

Based on these findings, we make 4 recommendations, detailed as follows:

Recommendation 1: that emergency management agencies explore which FBAN outputs could be released to the community to support their planning and decision-making during bushfire season.

Recommendation 2: that emergency management agencies explore how FBANs and predictive service outputs can be utilised to better support other relevant functions such as the conduct of planned burning and public information.

Recommendation 3: that emergency management agencies explore the ongoing training and development needs of FBANs.

Recommendation 4: that emergency management agencies work with FBANs to develop continuous learning processes which can be used to improve predictive services after bushfire and planned burning seasons.

In terms of utilisation, our recommendations will require an implementation strategy which needs to be mindful of the requirements to continue to plan for and respond to ongoing incidents that require predictive services. Accordingly, we propose a staged approach to utilisation that is channelled through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Black Summer research group.

Finally, we have confidence that these findings and recommendations are relevant to many other jurisdictions in Australia, including Western Australia, Tasmania, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory, Queensland, and New South Wales, given their similarity in bushfire hazards, incident management systems, and the role and scope of predictive services.

}, keywords = {analysts, black summer, FBANs, Fire behaviour, predictive, services, Victoria}, issn = {697}, author = {Chloe Begg and Graham Dwyer and Timothy Neale and Ian Pollock} } @article {bnh-7795, title = {Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Spotting is thought to increase wildfire rate of spread (ROS) and in some cases become the main mechanism for spread. The role of spotting in wildfire spread is controlled by many factors including fire intensity, number of and distance between spot fires, weather, fuel characteristics and topography. Through a set of 30 laboratory fire experiments on a 3 m x 4 m fuel bed, subject to air flow, we explored the influence of manually ignited spot fires (0, 1 or 2), the presence or absence of a model hill and their interaction on combined fire ROS (i.e. ROS incorporating main fire and merged spot fires). During experiments conducted on a flat fuel bed, spot fires (whether 1 or 2) had only a small influence on combined ROS. Slowest combined ROS was recorded when a hill was present and no spot fires were ignited, because the fires crept very slowly downslope and downwind of the hill. This was up to, depending on measurement interval, 5 times slower than ROS in the flat fuel bed experiments. However, ignition of 1 or 2 spot fires (with hill present) greatly increased combined ROS to similar levels as those recorded in the flat fuel bed experiments (depending on spread interval). The effect was strongest on the head fire, where spot fires merged directly with the main fire, but significant increases in off-centre ROS were also detected. Our findings suggest that under certain topographic conditions, spot fires can allow a fire to overcome the low spread potential of downslopes. Current models may underestimate wildfire ROS and fire arrival time in hilly terrain if the influence of spot fires on ROS is not incorporated into predictions.

}, keywords = {air flow, analysis of variance, Bushfire, combustion, fire research, fire suppression technology, fuels, rotors}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and M. Almeida and Carlos Ribeiro and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-7996, title = {Fire spread across different fuel types: research and utilisation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {668}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

It is crucial for emergency and disaster management organisations to predict of the rate of spread and intensity of bushfires for operational planning, community warnings and the deployment of their resources. Currently, this is achieved by simulation using simplified operational models that have the useful attribute of providing results on time scales commensurate with those required by emergency managers. However, when Cruz \& Alexander [1] reviewed the performance of the operational fire models used by fire and emergency service analysts on seven vegetation types found in Australia, they found that on an average most of the fire models have an error of 20{\textendash}80\% in estimating the rate of fire spread. These differences in prediction are due to the assumptions and limitations of these models. Therefore, it is essential that these simplified operational tools be refined so that they can better predict fire behaviour. Additionally, a more physically based firebrand model needs to be included in operational models to predict firebrand distribution and subsequent spotting, which lead to an increased rate of fire spread (ROS). Currently, no such model exists. With an increased population in the rural{\textendash}urban interface (or wildland{\textendash}urban interface, WUI), it is also important to understand the vulnerability of houses from radiant heat and firebrand flux in order to minimise such vulnerability.

In this project, we tested two established reliable physics-based models: Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and FIRESTAR3D to simulate bushfire scenarios in three broad areas:

(1)\  sub-canopy wind flow,

(2)\  firebrand transport, and

(3)\  propagation of grass and forest fires.

We have made significant inroads into providing usable outputs as well understanding various aspects of bushfire behaviour. The following are particular highlights:

This project was also established to create a capability and capacity in Australia to conduct research and understand physical-based wildfire modelling approaches. There are several international groups developing these models, and it is imperative that Australia can interact and work alongside these researchers to translate the findings to the Australian context.

Overall, we have achieved our goal of obtaining greater insight into bushfire physics and we are now utilising those insights to parameterise various phenomena for operational models.

This report explains these issues in more detail.

[1] Meaning WRF will vary for the geographical location and driving wind velocity and direction

}, keywords = {Fire, fuel, research, spread, types, utilisation}, issn = {668}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Amila Wickramasinghe and Mahmood Rashid and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7824, title = {Flood risk communication - final project report}, number = {645}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The context for the research

The\ focus of this research project was informed by the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focused on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

Although there were pockets of information and more detailed knowledge about these behaviours held in some jurisdictions, there was no national picture of either the details surrounding vehicle-related flood fatalities or the incidence of these two general behaviours and the detailed contexts in which the public enters floodwater. Therefore, by studying the general public more comprehensively, there was an opportunity to quantify behaviours and identify the potential challenges and additional levers for communicating flood risk, as well as enabling greater insight into differences across Australia (both within and across jurisdictions).

In addition, the information that was already known about behaviour in floodwater related solely to the general public. Emergency services, in particular State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, were previously identified as an at-risk group for entering floodwater and flood fatalities.

In the context of established approaches to the investigation of risk perception, comprehension, and risk-taking behaviour, SES personnel represent an {\textquoteleft}expert{\textquoteright} group. This meant they could also provide insights about risk perception and risk communication when studied and compared to the {\textquoteleft}lay public{\textquoteright} (expert-novice paradigm), for example enabling identification of differences in use of words/ language, conceptualisation of {\textquoteleft}flood{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}flooded roads{\textquoteright}, and identification and use of environmental cues when judging flood risk.\ 

Finally, as a risk group there is an organisational imperative to study the behaviour of SES personnel entering floodwater when on/off duty. This research supports the evaluation, understanding, and provides opportunities to assist in the mitigation of a range of organisational risks, including

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprised broad two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Collating flood risk communications and co-developing Community Service Announcements (CSAs) for flood for use in National broadcasting by the ABC.

Project strategy for research and collaboration

The research strategy involved a suite of research studies, and employed mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, including experimental research, questionnaires, and in-depth interviews employing a mental models approach to ensure the research problem is well understood, the needs of those at risk could be met, and knowledge is co-produced with end-users and community.

Consultation and collaboration with key stakeholders and various end-users were key aspects of the overall research approach and helped to determine the research foci through the lifetime of the project. Following this collaborative approach, the research was responsive to stakeholder contexts. This enabled the team to take advantage of opportunities to explore some new topics in greater depth (e.g., SES behaviours around floodwater), but has also meant there were some delays and changes to the planned research activities (e.g., being unable to progress some approaches and outputs due to COVID-19). As a consequence, some of the resulting outputs and projects differ to the outputs outlined at the start of the project.

Project overview - extending what is known and addressing the gaps

Previous research has established that floods in Australia are a significant, and often preventable, cause of death, and this research has provided some useful insights to the risk perceptions and planned behaviour among the public in relation to driving and floodwater (Fitzgerald, Du, Jamal, Clark, \& Hou, 2010; Hamilton, Peden, Pearson, \& Hagger, 2016; Haynes et al., 2017).

This project builds on existing knowledge in several important ways:

Overall, these various studies highlight some of the complexity and challenges in flood risk communication and flood risk assessment and factors that need to be considered when developing communication materials. The detailed nature of the data collected also provides insights to how interventions and flood risk communication and engagement work can be targeted.

A snapshot of key findings

As the project\ comprised a number of studies it also generated a substantial number of findings and insights. These have been condensed into a series of practitioner-focused Research into Practice Briefs. In addition, the BNHCRC Communications Team has developed a short series of videos to showcase some key research findings and augment these Briefs.

A snapshot of key findings across the various studies is provided below:

Areas for research utilisation

This\ project provides an in-depth understanding of how the public and emergency service professionals (SES) behave around, and understand the risks of, floodwater. The translation of these findings into utilisation and impact is an ongoing process that will continue beyond the formal end of the research.\ 

There are four main areas of research utilisation that are being pursued:

In addition\ to the above areas of potential and emerging utilisation, the project team has worked actively with end-users and a range of additional stakeholders to co-produce project outputs, including conference presentations (Taylor, Wiebusch, Tofa, Haynes; AFAC 2019) and co-authored peer-reviewed articles (Taylor, Tofa, Haynes, McLaren, Readman, Ferguson, Rundle, Rose, 2019).

Research Capacity Building

The\ research project team has also supported research capacity building through the mentoring and inclusion of students in research activities, including a successful PhD completion (Ahmed, 2019), five Masters of Organisational Psychology students, two psychology honours students, and a number of short-term research and engagement placements. The project funding has supported early career researchers (ECRs) and has enabled these ECRs and students to progress through co-authored peer-reviewed publications and utilisation outputs, i.e., Research into Practice Briefs.

}, keywords = {communication, communities, Flood, risk}, issn = {645}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-7961, title = {Generalized Loading Protocols for Experimentally Simulating Multidirectional Earthquake Actions on Building Columns in Regions of Low-to-Moderate Seismicity }, journal = {Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {147}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

This study aimed to quantitatively develop realistic quasi-static loading protocols for simulating bidirectional cyclic actions and axial load variation on building columns in a way that is representative of an actual response during earthquake ground excitation. A case-study building was subjected to a suite of 15 ground motions that were scaled to design basis earthquake (DBE) and maximum considered earthquake (MCE) levels of a typical region of low-to-moderate seismicity. The results showed that the displacement path of a building column under earthquake actions is generally in the form of elliptical loops of various orientations due to the phase difference in the sinusoidal displacements in the two orthogonal axes of the column. Accordingly, this work proposes a bidirectional lateral loading protocol that simplifies and generalizes the displacement path of the column in the form of elliptical loops of four different orientations. Similarly, the patterns of axial load variation in columns were also studied in detail, which led to the development of separate axial load variation protocols for external and internal columns of a building, which can be applied in tandem with the bidirectional lateral loading protocol. The paper concludes with a brief overview of the results of two reinforced concrete (RC) column specimens, which were experimentally tested using the proposed bidirectional loading protocol.

}, keywords = {earthquakes, engineering, reinforced concrete structures}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003056}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29ST.1943-541X.0003056}, author = {Saim Raza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Scott Menegon and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-8000, title = {Growing the seeds: recovery, strength and capability in Gippsland communities}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Adversity is a cloak that shrouds great gifts. It is up to us to cast away the cloak and reveal all that lies within. This is the journey.{\textquoteright} {\textemdash} Milena Cifali, Mallacoota Time: The Lost Summer 2020

The 2019{\textendash}20 East Gippsland fires occurred during the most severe fire season ever recorded on the east coast of Australia. They burned from November 2019 to February 2020, damaging over half of the East Gippsland Shire, an area of over 1.16 million hectares. Over 400 dwellings and businesses were lost and four people lost their lives. Recovery had just begun when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. In the same way that the Black Saturday Bushfires have fundamentally changed how bushfires are seen, these events have changed how recovery will be thought about. Writing this report has been a confronting and humbling experience.

In initial conversations, it became clear that the community members who participated wanted a different conversation to the one they had been having. They were seeking to be heard and understood {\textendash} not as victims of the bushfires, but as people who needed support because of the bushfires. To accommodate this, the research has been shaped around the conversation they wanted to have, which is focused on community strengths and capabilities.

This study was undertaken when COVID-19 restrictions were in place, extending for two weeks after Melbourne{\textquoteright}s lockdown ended. As a result, this report represents a snapshot of the recovery process at that time, and contains material that may distress individuals who have been affected the bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic.

This report does not aim to represent all community issues or speak for the whole community, but rather to identify overarching themes around capabilities raised by those who wished to participate in the study. Participants have spoken about their experiences; those observed in their home communities and other communities they are working with. We also acknowledge that since the end of Melbourne{\textquoteright}s lockdown and the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, circumstances may have changed, affecting communities{\textquoteright} contexts; and government and non-government agencies may be acting on issues contained in this report.

The purpose of this report

The purpose of this report is to provide a starting point for assessing and understanding community capability practically, and to provide an indicative status of these in East Gippsland and Wellington Shires following the bushfires. It uses a systemic assessment of social, economic and risk contexts to examine community strengths and capabilities, and identify potential future pathways.

The first section of this report has a specific focus on the capabilities involved in community recovery and how they have been experienced by diverse groups within the East Gippsland and Wellington community. This is viewed through a strengths-focused lens. It also provides an initial assessment of the status of the capabilities identified, and the challenges, needs and opportunities that have arisen as part of the recovery experience.

The second section provides a broader picture of the comparative strengths, capabilities and needs identified in an online survey of those impacted by the bushfires in New South Wales and Gippsland through established community panels. The results show which aspects are shared more broadly, those partitioned by direct and indirect experience, and those specific to the East Gippsland community.

The third section provides an economic assessment of two local government areas {\textendash} East Gippsland and Wellington Shires {\textendash} to provide a high-level assessment of the economic influences and impacts on the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic and bushfire recovery.

}, keywords = {black summer, Capability, communities, gippsland, recovery, strength}, isbn = {978-1-86272-829-5}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-8293, title = {Guidance framework for the selection of different fuel management strategies}, number = {716}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe application of this method is hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and adverse societal and environmental outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This report focuses on the development and illustration of a general guidance framework that provides users with the information and knowledge they need to select suitable fuel management strategies for their particular circumstances, and hence assists them with preparing an effective fuel management plan. The framework is developed based on a review of literature and data collected from survey responses from local governments and their fire managers in Western Australia who conduct fuel management activities.

The framework provides information on a set of functions bushfire mitigation officers need to consider when developing fuel management plans for a range of fuel management techniques. The functions are divided into:

The fuel management techniques include:

The utility of the framework is illustrated on two hypothetical scenarios, representing situations where a user would like to ascertain relevant attributes of a set of candidate fuel management techniques and where a user would like to identify the best fuel management technique for a given situation.

}, keywords = {framework, Fuel management, guidance, strategies}, issn = {716}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7808, title = {Guidance note for replication of case studies - Black Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Oswald, Queensland floods and Toodyay bushfire}, number = {643}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There are two main considerations in the first step of our methodology:

It is preferable to identify the disaster-affected areas at finer units because this approach will yield more precise estimates for the disaster effects.

Generally speaking, SA2s [1] provide finer units for analysing the disasters that struck regional areas because LGAs are relatively large in regional areas. By contrast, when analysing disasters that hit metropolitan/urban areas, LGAs provide the finer geographic variation while also capturing the jurisdictional differences that might be relevant to disaster impacts.

Before embarking on each case study, we carried out detailed ArcGIS work using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. In identifying the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs, we first overlaid the disaster zones on statistical and administrative maps. In particular, we used disaster maps to apply location-based analysis, that is, to vectorise and transform our raster data to map coordinates by using the ESRI shapefile formats provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Here, it is important to achieve an almost perfect overlap between the raster and our target data in terms of the location, shape, and attributes of geographic features for different statistical units. In the following step, we determined the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs.

In determining the comparison groups, again it is important to consider the nature of the disaster-hit areas. For regional disasters, it is more appropriate to choose neighbouring areas that are not hit by the disaster but share similar economic, geographic and topographic characteristics with the disaster-hit areas. For disasters that strike metropolitan areas, comparability is likely to be obtained from other metropolitan areas. In Australia, typically, capital cities mimic each other in terms of their economic, demographic and geographic characteristics. For example, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Adelaide are located on river banks and have agriculture-based hinterlands.

Below we describe how we specifically determined disaster-hit areas for each case study.

[1] SA2s in Australia host 3,000{\textendash}25,000 people, with an average population of about 10,000 individuals.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, brisbane floods, case studies, cyclone oswald, economics, toodyay bushfire}, issn = {643}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-7902, title = {Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities {\textendash} final project report}, number = {654}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the Final Report of the Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities (HCIC) project. This project considered the challenges and opportunities arising out of engagements between Indigenous peoples and natural hazard and land management government agencies in southern Australia. The majority of this activity has focused on cultural burning, which has also been our focus.

Significantly, there is very limited existing research about these engagements, and limited public sector experience in engaging with Indigenous peoples. This constrains evidenced-based policy and practice and practitioner decision making. This lack of capacity was clear in the responses to the 2019-20 bushfires. The natural hazard sector is now required to do this retrospective and forward-looking learning, to foster more culturally safe natural hazard mitigation, and better connect the logics of hazards, risk and resilience. Indeed, our research found that when the sector does not account for cultural protocols and permissions as part of its core business, this produces barriers to collaboration because it:

We undertook qualitative research, primarily through forming partnerships with key practitioners working in this space and undertaking research activities that iteratively learnt from these partnerships. In this, researching both Indigenous and non-indigenous values has been important in order to navigate and analyse this intercultural context.\ 

Our research findings are structured in two sections: the first presents the results from our literature review, the second presents a synthesis of the research findings arranged under six headings, as listed below, with recommended first steps for the natural hazard sector under each heading. Given previous sector and research practices, the suggested first steps require significant sector leadership and investment in Indigenous-led research.

Research findings

Unfamiliarity with the context itself

There needs to be a rapid growth in sector capacity in understanding the context itself, especially:

Essentially, the sector needs to understand where it sits in relation to Indigenous peoples.

Trust and partnerships

The shared motivations held by some Indigenous and non-indigenous individuals to form collaborative partnerships are challenged by their operating context, including a lack of trust, bureaucratic constraints, tokenism, racism, and a lack of resources. The sector needs to move beyond statements of support, to develop specific policies and programs that demonstrably grow opportunities for Indigenous engagement and partnership. We suggest these policies should be:

Centring Country and First Peoples

It is clear from our research that if emerging collaborations are to be sustainable, Aboriginal people need to be centred on meaningful terms across a suite of natural hazard practices and policies. We suggest this should involve:

Administration and regulation

There is a clear need for more culturally appropriate and equitable regulatory, training and qualification regimes for bushfire management across Australia. From our research findings this includes:\ 

Expert evidence and erasure

Academic and government research has failed, almost without exception, to consider Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} experiences with natural hazards in southern Australia. To address this imbalance, the public sector needs to create specific funding streams to address this research gap. These funding schemes should be:

Accounting and reporting

Our research showed that there was very little attention given by the sector to accounting and reporting their policy commitments and legal obligations towards Aboriginal peoples, reducing sector transparency, accountability and coordination. In response, we suggest that a;; land and emergency management agencies should include in their annual reports details about:

We emphasise that conducting a cultural burn in of itself is not necessarily a good outcome, as the value of the cultural burn is dependent on the meaningful involvement of First Peoples.

Fundamentally, we argue that the sector and Aboriginal peoples have to build capacity, meet, and be more organised locally and across larger regions. To do so, we suggest:

In summary, we suggest that land and emergency management agencies need to:

Concluding remarks

With the recent catastrophic bushfires, there is an expressed demand for greater engagement with Indigenous peoples iconic burning practices. More generally, it may be that the public sector has reached a tipping point, whereby adversarial approaches to working with Indigenous peoples are being authentically replaced with partnership approaches. In this, the findings are not just of relevance to the natural hazard sector, but across other public sector practice.

Fundamentally, sector leadership has to consider: why and how it wishes to collaborate with Indigenous peoples; allocate the resources and time to understand the status quo that has excluded Indigenous people to date; create processes and structures to support Indigenous leadership, participation and collaboration across the sector; and, address deficiencies in how sector performance is currently measured and reported.

}, keywords = {communities, culture, hazards, indigenous}, issn = {654}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Will Smith} } @article {bnh-8012, title = {Heatwave and building codes in New South Wales: issues and prospects}, number = {611}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report reviews key literature and considers the overall comprehensiveness of the NSW building codes in terms of their contributions to selected elements of heatwave resilience. It identifies success, opportunities and issues relating to the contribution of building codes to natural hazard resilience. Overall, this report suggests that there is no effective acknowledgement of heatwave in the National Construction Code, and that there is limited integration between building and other key systems such as land use planning, health services and emergency preparedness and response. A range of areas are proposed for attention.

}, keywords = {building, codes, heatwave, issues, nsw, prospects}, issn = {611}, author = {Alan March and Crystal Legacy and Georgia Warren-Myers and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7907, title = {High-Resolution Estimates of Fire Severity - An Evaluation of UAS Image and LiDAR Mapping Approaches on a Sedgeland Forest Boundary in Tasmania, Australia }, journal = {Fire}, volume = {4}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, chapter = {14}, abstract = {

With an increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires across the globe and resultant changes to long-established fire regimes, the mapping of fire severity is a vital part of monitoring ecosystem resilience and recovery. The emergence of unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) and compact sensors (RGB and LiDAR) provide new opportunities to map fire severity. This paper conducts a comparison of metrics derived from UAS Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) point clouds and UAS image based products to classify fire severity. A workflow which derives novel metrics describing vegetation structure and fire severity from UAS remote sensing data is developed that fully utilises the vegetation information available in both data sources. UAS imagery and LiDAR data were captured pre- and post-fire over a 300 m by 300 m study area in Tasmania, Australia. The study area featured a vegetation gradient from sedgeland vegetation (e.g., button grass 0.2m) to forest (e.g., Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus globulus 50m). To classify the vegetation and fire severity, a comprehensive set of variables describing structural, textural and spectral characteristics were gathered using UAS images and UAS LiDAR datasets. A recursive feature elimination process was used to highlight the subsets of variables to be included in random forest classifiers. The classifier was then used to map vegetation and severity across the study area. The results indicate that UAS LiDAR provided similar overall accuracy to UAS image and combined (UAS LiDAR and UAS image predictor values) data streams to classify vegetation (UAS image: 80.6\%; UAS LiDAR: 78.9\%; and Combined: 83.1\%) and severity in areas of forest (UAS image: 76.6\%, UAS LiDAR: 74.5\%; and Combined: 78.5\%) and areas of sedgeland (UAS image: 72.4\%; UAS LiDAR: 75.2\%; and Combined: 76.6\%). These results indicate that UAS SfM and LiDAR point clouds can be used to assess fire severity at very high spatial resolutio

}, keywords = {3D remote sensing, drone, fire severity, fuel structure, Lidar, photogrammetry, RPAS, structure, UAS, vegetation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4010014}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/4/1/14/htm}, author = {Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Darren Turner and Arko Lucieer and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-8292, title = {Identification of fuel management locations and risk reduction potential}, number = {715}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe and effective application of this method is likely to be hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This project explored the use of experts{\textquoteright} knowledge and the UNHaRMED Decision Support System (DSS) framework (an integrated spatio-temporal model for analysing natural hazard risk within urban and rural environments) to identify areas where fuel management activities should be conducted within the study area and identify future bushfire risk reduction potential at identified hotspots.

The discussions with end-users resulted in the selection of five major areas to focus on for this study (i.e. Gingin, Kalamunda, Mundaring and Margaret River). The level of bushfire risk simulated in UNHaRMED for a baseline period indicated a good agreement with the perceived levels of bushfire risk at the rural-urban interface identified by the relevant bushfire management agencies. This observation therefore suggests that UNHaRMED is suitable for identifying areas of emerging risk under different climate change scenarios.

This research also highlighted that areas where fuel management activities are currently conducted in Gingin, Kalamunda, Mundaring and Margaret River overlap with areas of high bushfire risk modelled in UNHaRMED (rural-urban interface). This suggests that UNHaRMED is suitable for assessing the impact of fuel load mitigation activities a the rural-urban interface in WA.

The next step will be to run UNHaRMED simulations involving a range of future climate and population growth scenarios with and without fuel management activities (M2). This will then enable us to identify how bushfire risk changes for each scenario, where management activities are desirable, and where potential risk reduction will be possible (irrespective of management type) (D2).

}, keywords = {Fuel management, locations, potential, risk reduction}, issn = {715}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8294, title = {Identifying opportunities for the use of different fuel management strategies in WA}, number = {717}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire risk is likely to increase in the future due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl. Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe application of this method is being threatened by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). In order to address this issue, this report introduces a novel approach to determining the suitability of different fuel management approaches (e.g. forest thinning, scrub rolling, mulching, mowing/slashing, planned burning pile burning, chipping, grazing) in different areas using a combination of local knowledge/experience and spatial data analysis. The approach is applied to four areas of emerging bushfire risk in Western Australia identified in consultation with end-users, producing maps for different fuel management approaches that indicate where the application of particular fuel management approaches is suitable. These maps can be obtained for current and future conditions, therefore providing an assessment of which fuel management options are available to mitigate the impact in areas of emerging bushfire risk. The approach is generic and flexible and can be tailored to different locations based on information of local knowledge and experience.

}, keywords = {Fuel management, opportunities, strartegies}, issn = {717}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7868, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows - final project report}, number = {647}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows set out in 2017 to demonstrate a pilot capability to deliver wind and rain impact forecasts for residential housing from an ensemble of weather prediction models runs. The project was a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) and Geoscience Australia (GA).

The project was initially focused on the wind and rainfall impact from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in New South Wales (Wehner and Maqsood 2015). The wind and rainfall hazard data were provided by a 24-member ensemble of the Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator (ACCESS; Bureau of Meteorology 2018) model on a 1.3 km grid, with damage data provided by NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU. Exposure data were sourced from the National EXposure Information System (NEXIS; Nadimpalli et al. 2007; Power et al. 2017) at GA. Heuristic wind vulnerability functions, derived in a previous project, were also provided by GA, while no large-scale rain vulnerability relationships existed.

Through the utilisation of GA{\textquoteright}s HazImp software, we developed and tested a workflow that integrated the numerical weather forecasts, vulnerability relationships and exposure data at the community level, and early in the second year of the project we started producing the first spatial quantitative wind impact plots.

The multi-hazard nature of the east coast low event, the relatively low wind speeds relative to the design wind speeds for the affected residential buildings and the available damage assessment data made attributing the observed building damage to a single hazard such as wind or rain difficult. Wind damage to residential housing in this case was largely due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, while the most severe damage for the Dungog event was due to flood inundation. To increase the utility of the damage assessment data we recommended early in our project that the SES/EICU damage survey templates should record multiple damage states and linkages between damage and the associate hazard(s). Such expanded recording practices would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships, a requirement for progress in quantitative hazard impact modelling. Additional uncertainty arose through the NEXIS exposure data which are statistically inferred at the Dungog township and are therefore merely indicative of the actual building attributes.

During the second year of the project a range of scope reductions were introduced in response to our previous and emerging findings during this second year.

The project set up the end-to-end workflow from wind hazard to spatial impact. These spatial impact outputs were delivered into the Visual Weather system at the Bureau of Meteorology, foreshadowing the possibility of easily achievable future visualisation to operational meteorologists.

To evaluate the performance of the quantitative wind impact forecast that we had produced, very careful and detailed processing of the available damage data was needed to remove damage reports due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, rain ingress, and flood inundation. We have now shown that the inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information can outperform a wind impact forecast that only uses a plain wind hazard prediction. In other words, the Dungog case study suggests that the extra effort needed for the quantitative inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information is a promising approach in the pursuit of future quantitative impact forecasts in Australia.

To gain a better understanding of how other agencies have approached the wind impact prediction problem, we also conducted an extensive literature search which resulted in a selective summary of meteorological hazard impact prediction systems. These findings have been submitted to the Australian Journal of Emergency Management as a review paper.

We finally applied our impact forecast methodology to a second extreme weather case during May 2020 in Perth. An extra-tropical cyclone produced widespread wind damage with wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h recorded over many hours. In this case we found that wind impact forecasts are sensitive to the fluctuations in wind gust forecasts produced by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high-resolution real-time weather prediction models. Alongside the multi-hazard nature of damage to residential buildings, this impact sensitivity to the hazard constitutes a second complication for the quantitative prediction of wind impacts.

}, keywords = {coastal, east coast lows, Forecasting, zone}, issn = {647}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Martin Wehner and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-7974, title = {On the Impacts of Observation Location, Timing, and Frequency on Flood Extent Assimilation Performance}, journal = {Water Reseources Research}, volume = {57}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Flood inundation forecasts from hydrodynamic models can help with flood preparedness, but uncertainty in the inputs and parameters can lead to erroneous flood inundation estimates. However, Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based flood extent information can be used to constrain such model forecasts through data assimilation thus making them more accurate. Since high-resolution SAR satellites can only provide partial coverage for medium to large catchments, it is expedient to evaluate the combination of observation footprint, timing, and frequency which can lead to maximum forecast improvements. Consequently, multiple spatiotemporal SAR-based flood extent assimilation scenarios have been simulated here to identify the optimum observation design for improved flood inundation forecasts. A mutual information-based particle filter was implemented in a synthetic setup for the 2011 flood event in the Clarence Catchment, Australia, to combine SAR-based flood extents with the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP. The open loop ensemble was forced using uncertain inflows and the impact of assimilating flood extents in morphologically homogenous river reaches was evaluated for different first visit and revisit scenarios. Results revealed that the optimum temporal acquisition strategy strongly depends on reach morphology and flood wave arrival timing. Further, it was found that a single image at the right time could improve the 8-days forecast by \~{}95\% when assimilated at reaches with large flat floodplains but limited tidal influence, while in reaches with narrow valleys over 10 images were needed to achieve the same outcome. Experiments such as the one presented here can therefore inform targeted observation strategies to ensure cost effective flood monitoring and maximize the forecast accuracy resulting from flood extent assimilation.

}, keywords = {data assimilation, flood forecasting, hydraulic modeling, observation spatiotemporal characteristics, particle filter, synthetic aperture radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028238}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020WR028238}, author = {Antara Dasgupta and Renaud Hostache and RAAJ Ramsankaran and Guy Schumann and Stefania Grimaldi and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-8236, title = {Implications of climate change for emergency services operations - insights from the literature}, number = {699}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Greenhouse gas emissions to date and existing pledges for emissions reduction from national governments suggest that the world is tracking a medium emissions future at best, and possibly a high emission one. This report consolidates available knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on key issues that influence the (emergency management services (EMS) in Australia and New Zealand, through a systematic review of the literature (both peer reviewed and grey literature) combined with an analysis of relevant inquiries. It is an output of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled Preparing emergency services for a climate-challenged world.

For the EMS, one of the most immediate and visceral impacts of climate change is increasing frequency and severity of disaster-inducing natural hazards. Yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this is the extent of the challenge: interacting climatic, social, demographic and economic trends will result in transformations in our societies and way of life. For the EMS, the climate change adaptation challenge is more than just {\textquoteleft}more of the same{\textquoteright}. The increasingly significant impacts that climate change is having on the natural and human systems that support livelihoods and wellbeing in Australia and New Zealand present a profound challenge for all communities, businesses and services.

In the decades ahead, Australia is expected to experience increased warming across the whole of the continent with rainfall declines over much of the southern parts of the country very likely. These changes are not unfolding linearly. Already it is clear that the climate has altered over recent decades through a serious of step changes or {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright}. This means that current rates of change are an unreliable indicator of future rates of change.

Similarly, New Zealand is already registering warming and changing rainfall in some regions. These trends are expected to continue and include increasing average temperatures and more hot days for norther areas, significant shifts in rainfall patterns and more extreme rainfall, and profound increases in the time spent in drought by 2040. Sea level rise is also a major concern for the island nation, with sea level rise around New Zealand projected to be up to 10\% higher than the global average.

For Australia and New Zealand, climate change means more heatwaves, more extreme precipitation events, more bushfire weather, more storms, fewer but more intense cyclones, and more landslides. It also means more compound events and cascading impacts, where multiple extreme events occur simultaneously {\textendash} as was seen in Black Summer, where bushfires, heatwaves and floods were experienced during a long-term drought. Climate change is also increasing the risk that second and third order impacts of disasters, such as a disease outbreak following a flood, themselves cascade into another event of equal or greater severity.

Increasing frequency and severity of climatic hazards are intersecting with growing exposure and changing vulnerability patterns to drive disaster risk. Some of the desirable features of contemporary lifestyles {\textendash} such as high levels of consumption and technology-dependent, centralised systems {\textendash} are further increasing disaster risk. A no-regrets approach to climate change adaptation is\ to build {\textquoteleft}adaptive capacity{\textquoteright}, which is made up of five interlinked domains: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning, and agency. Building adaptive capacity/reducing vulnerability requires looking beyond direct climate change impacts (e.g. managing heat) to address structural and systemic constraints on the ability of people and ecosystems to adapt to ongoing change, such as social inequalities, low environmental sustainability and poor governance.

Climate change adaptation incorporates a range of objectives and areas of effort. While it necessarily involves {\textquotedblleft}coping{\textquotedblright} at any moment in time, it also extends far beyond just coping to also better {\textquotedblleft}fit{\textquotedblright} emerging conditions and to proactively adjust to, and help positively shape, the future. Criteria of success of a climate change adaptation initiative include effectiveness, efficiency, equity, accounting for externalities, and having an extended time horizon. The inverse of good adaptation is maladaptation: actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future.

Adaptation faces limits and barriers. As climate change worsens, it is likely impacts will exceed some systems{\textquoteright} and groups{\textquoteright} capacity to manage them. Uneven structural vulnerabilities and engrained issues such as downplaying climate change risks means some groups are continually or regularly unable to cope or adapt well. One of the risks of the {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright} paradigm of disaster risk management in Australia is that {\textquoteleft}communities often are left to manage residual risks shifted towards individuals, whether or not they have the financial, physical, mental, or social capacity to manage them{\textquoteright}. It is often assumed that a lack of climate change information or adaptation knowledge is the main barrier to effective and timely adaptation action. While knowledge and information are important, analysis of barriers to adaptation suggests that institutional barriers (e.g. lack of clear mandate, roles, responsibilities, willingness to act) are often more significant.

One of the enablers of good climate change adaptation is systems thinking {\textendash} appreciating systemic relationships and how to manage them. When it comes to the EMS, a systems-based approach widens our understanding of the sector and the many implications of climate change for it. This report presents two frameworks that are useful for contextualising the EMS in a wider context, identifying how climate change might influence various elements of this system, and where the EMS can direct different types of adaptation strategies.

The academic literature provides some valuable insights into the drivers at work in the EMS context. However, very little research addresses the {\textquotedblleft}question of the future{\textquotedblright} per se and that which does, does not do so in a comprehensive manner that incorporates climate change or challenges the assumption that existing trends will unfold linearly. We therefore need to bring together different insights in order to piece together what the future may entail for the EMS. One useful way to begin this process is to systematically consider the {\textquoteleft}STEEP drivers{\textquoteright} - that is, insights into Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Policy/Political drivers {\textendash} and to then start thinking through how they may interact with climate change. In response to input from the scenarios team (the other part of this project), we have included a sixth category {\textendash} legal {\textendash} into the framework. This report provides examples of the types of changes and uncertainties the EMS may need to consider as it encounters the climate change adaptation undertaking.

We draw on the literature review to present analysis provided to the scenarios process. This includes a summary of biophysical impacts of climate change to 2035, including a plausible (but not predictive) climate hazard event map. We then summarise the likely flow-on effects to 2035 and finally the likely implications of those flow-on effects for water and environment, agriculture and aquaculture, infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, and society in general. Finally, we explore what adaptive capacity might look like under the four plausible futures developed by the scenarios team. In this way, the EMS has a comprehensive picture of what climate change impacts might influence them and what resources they might have to manage them.\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {699}, author = {Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @conference {bnh-8333, title = {Improvement of drag model for non-burning firebrand transport in Fire Dynamics Simulator }, booktitle = {24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, address = {Sydney, NSW}, abstract = {

Firebrands play a crucial role in increasing the severity of wildfires by driving fire growth, damaging structures, and starting new fires. Predicting the transport of firebrands and their propensity to ignite new fires is of significant interest to fire communities. Developing an operational firebrand transport sub-model from the field studies is cumbersome, expensive, and has significant associated risks to equipment, community and firefighters. Physics-based models have the potential to assist in the development of such firebrand transport sub-models which can be utilised to improve the efficacy of existing operational fire models. The present study showcases one of the initial works carried out in the development of such a physics-based firebrand model. The work utilises Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), a commonly used open-source physicsbased fire model. The Lagrangian particle sub-model of FDS is used to simulate the transport of firebrand particles. The Lagrangian sub-model is generally used to model the transport of droplets and mist and has been extensively validated. However, the validation of this sub-model for the transport of solid particles such as firebrands is limited. The issue is exacerbated when particles are of a non-spherical shape and can undergo complex reactions over their transport such as burning. In this work, we utilise a firebrand generator prototype that produces a uniform Lagrangian shower of nonburning idealised firebrands. A set of in-house experiments are conducted to study the transport of three isometric shapes of non-burning firebrands i.e. cubiform, cylindrical and square-disc. These sets of experiments are used to quantify the efficacy of the inbuilt particle drag model of FDS and suggest potential alternative drag models that can be employed without loss of computational speed, major amendment in the fire model, are applicable to a wide range of particles shapes, and potentially improved prediction. In general, it is found that the suggested alternative Haider and Levenspiel drag model improves the estimation of firebrand distribution in terms of peak location, maximum and minimum longitudinal distribution with exception to cubiform particles for peak location. The exception is mainly due to inherent error association with the alternative drag model in overestimating the drag coefficient. For other situations, Haider and Levenspiel drag model shows either an improvement or stays the same. However, the study found that the existing point particle assumption to represent particles in FDS is not suited to estimate the lateral spread of firebrands especially when the secondary motion of a particle on its axis is involved such as cylindrical and square-disc particles. Our studies found, the lateral spread is found to be in the range of ~5-15\% thinner compared to its experimental width for cylindrical particle distribution. For the square disc, it is not possible to quantify such differences due to the computational limit associated with our present study. It can be qualitatively suggested that it is found to be more than cylindrical particles. A further set of experiments and their numerical validation is required to ascertain the above finding, especially with different sizes, isometric and non-isometric shape, the speed of firebrand particles and burning process to establish the efficacy of a particular drag model for firebrand transport.

}, keywords = {drag models, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), firebrand generator, firebrand particles, Lagrangian particle}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rahul-Wadhwani/publication/356914453_Improvement_of_drag_model_for_non-burning_firebrand_transport_in_Fire_Dynamics_Simulator/links/61c2c9e28bb20101842b52be/Improvement-of-drag-model-for-non-burning-firebrand-transport}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and Graham Thorpe and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7922, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - final project report}, number = {656}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This BNHCRC project titled:\  Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events prescribes practical structural retrofits that will make improvements to the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses in windstorms as well as measures to reduce damage and loss to contemporary houses.

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe windstorms have typically shown that houses built prior to the mid-1980s in Australia perform worse than houses constructed to contemporary building standards, during windstorms. Given that these older houses are a significant proportion of the housing stock, practical structural upgrading based on the latest research may improve performance of housing and the economic and social wellbeing of a community.

Some details for structural retrofitting currently exist, but their uptake is limited, and there is also evidence that these are not carried out when houses require repairs following severe storms. Therefore, the issues of retrofitting legacy housing, including feasibility and benefit-cost are analysed in this project.

The primary objective of this study was to identify vulnerable legacy house types across Australia and develop cost-effective retrofits for mitigating damage during windstorms. These evidence-based strategies will (a) aid policy formulation and decision making by Government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the industry for retrofitting typical at-risk houses in Australia. The main aims were to:

This report presents an overview of the research approach used for this project including the selection of house types, the development of the VAWS software and the Internet-based guidelines. A case study is presented of the vulnerability and benefit cost assessment of one of the selected house types, with the complete set of results presented in the Appendices. These results show that tile roofed houses in cyclonic regions of Australia benefit the most from retrofitting for severe wind events. The benefit-cost ratios for these tile roof houses and other house types are expected to improve when accounting for intangible costs, which are currently not included in the analyses presented in this report. In addition, examples of the impacts and utilisation of this project including the Queensland Government Housing Resilience Program are also presented.

}, keywords = {cyclone, events, existing housing, resilience, severe, wind}, issn = {656}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and David Henderson and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-8116, title = {Indigenous fire and land management - impact and sustainability}, number = {680}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Significant work has been done over the life of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre around the issues, opportunities and challenges facing remote Indigenous communities in the face of natural hazards. In the north of Australia, the predominant natural threats are cyclones, wildfire and flood, though the level of threat and impact of any of these differs considerably from region to region. There are other hazards that deeply concern remote community leaders, again, not equally across regions: heat stress and exposure, natural water resource salination and pollution, food security, toxicity and asthma issues from crude community waste burning, infrastructure issues (including road access); and related challenges; local capability to act, governance, resilience, inclusion etc.

The emergency management sector research has focused on technologies, capability, recruitment, and other aspects of EM agency preparation, response and recovery. This project responds to an identified gap in addressing the overall environment of Emergency management in remote areas. . . working together!

It is broadly recognised within Indigenous communities that EM is carried out FOR them, not WITH them. (See detailed discussion of this in the Arnhem Land context in Maypalama et. al.: 2016 and Sithole et. al.: 2021). This has generated increased interest, not only in the future engagement of communities in EM, but in the roles, if any, of EM and other agencies in the resilience of communities who, given structural and resource limitations in EM, are keen (and encouraged) to increase {\textquoteleft}self-reliance{\textquoteright} and take on more responsibilities in this space.

There is now a growing conversation nationally around government agencies and Indigenous communities collaborating more effectively. Much of this conversation has been around the perceived positive impact of traditional knowledge (particularly use of fire) on landscape health, and vulnerability to wildfire, how this may be integrated into rural fire service practice and what the real impact of this might be.

Indigenous leaders and rangers have consistently said and shown that use of fire is not separate from other (holistic) elements of caring for traditional country and that the social and cultural dimensions to land and fire management need to be acknowledged and respected to deliver the desired benefits to country and people (Sithole et. al. 2021: Maypalama et.al. 2019: James et. al. 2019: Burgess et. al. 2009). There are many aspects to this conversation and many perceived potential benefits of working together. They underpin this project{\textquoteright}s focus on partnerships to be able to explore this work together. Thus, the research brief is to:

Method

This research was conducted as a series of community-based discussions and workshops in the Northern Territory and north Queensland. NAILSMA provided resources, logistics, backgrounding and other support to local Indigenous researchers and facilitators who ran the meetings on country. This was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) method, consistent with preceding research on community resilience and partnerships by ARPNet and NAILSMA under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Developing effective partnerships in remote north Australian communities: Indigenous research and leadership in Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku. Inherent in this approach are direct benefits to Indigenous researchers and their communities from the process and from longer term outcomes influenced by their research and advocacy with EM agency leaders.

\ Where possible, meeting notes from the NT and Qld discussions were drafted and circulated to respondents and all invitees to the final combined workshop. This was to share what had already been discussed and to help provide focus.

An Agency Reference Group (ARG) (made up predominantly of representatives from QFES, NTES and DFES, but including CDU, Red Cross, NAILSMA and BFNT people) was invited to review and respond to early workshop outcomes, and attend the final workshop. This step was to inform the ARG and Indigenous community invitees to the final workshop with a general view of both Indigenous and agency perspectives on EM priorities and partnership prospects. They were able to kick-off their face-to-face discussions with a degree of prior understanding and focus.

This final, combined workshop was hosted by Djabugay people on their land, facilitated by Barry Hunter, a Djabugay leader and consultant and supported by NAILSMA.

Findings

To inform a Future Research Strategy the research team has organised ideas from the workshop and broader project into:

The work found that gaps are evident within communities, within EM agencies and between them. Summary of the findings includes:

Research Priorities mirror the above gaps and challenges, leading to achieving practical steps in long-term relationship pathways:

Integrating Indigenous fire and land management knowledge with EM operations and systems is not about taking the knowledge, it{\textquoteright}s about building respectful and trusting relationships with Indigenous people to deliver more effective EM together.

Utilisation

This research method (Participatory Action Research) assumes that the Indigenous researchers and their communities are a focal end-user. Participating EM agencies are another key end-user, not only by benefiting from the research in the long run but through face-to-face interactions with community researchers through which opportunities and challenges in developing direct relationships with participating communities can be discussed and solutions progressed firsthand.

In this sense the research is being used as it develops, to benefit communities, relationship building and short-term achievable change. It is also aimed at the national agenda for partnerships with Indigenous land managers, seeking to inform the new Natural Hazards Research Australia[1] about future research priorities and to encourage more discussion, more experience sharing and broader engagement of Indigenous leaders and influential EM agency staff in collaborative workshops hosted by Communities in different jurisdictions on country. This latter aim reflects the success of this project{\textquoteright}s collaborations and use of this model as an ongoing forum to benefit the sector. See for example the Aims and Expectations of the final project workshop below.

\ The summary of next steps:

  1. Relevant EM agencies and community leaders to start or continue working on their relationship and achievable change now.
  2. This report, supported by participating agencies, is presented to the new Natural Hazards Research Australia as a foundation to attract a future fully funded program of collaborative PAR with community researchers and of partnered EM activity.
  3. For the next and future collaborative workshops to be planned and funding secured so they may become annual, focused, Indigenous led pillars of EM sector partnerships.
  4. Conversations continue at 3 levels: community level, transregional and across the multi-agency national conversation. This should include Qld, NT and WA EM agencies connecting more effectively with each other and supporting each other to progress partnership building at North Australia scale.
  5. Indigenous communities and land management groups, their representative organisations and supporters take whatever steps they are able to, to build resilience and capability in EM.
}, keywords = {challenges, Emergency management, fire management, Impact, indigenous, land management, opportunities, partnerships, research strategy, sustainability}, issn = {680}, author = {Glenn James and Danny Burton and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Barry Hunter and Jimmy Morrison and Ted Gondarra and James Bayung} } @article {bnh-8291, title = {Influence of climate change and fuel management on bushfire risk in Western Australia}, number = {714}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire risk is likely to increase in the future due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl. This report presents the results of an analysis combining the outputs from stakeholder consultation with those from the Unified Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision Support System (UNHaRMED) to quantify increases in bushfire risk due to different population growth and climate change scenarios in four areas of emerging bushfire risk in Western Australia. Results indicate that increases in bushfire risks from 2018 to 2050 range between 23.9\% and 59.7\% (in terms of average annual loss), depending on the scenario and case study area considered. UNHaRMED is also used to assess the potential of mitigating these increases in risk via fuel load reduction.

Results indicate that fuel management can reduce future bushfire risk and that the decline in risk is positively correlated with an increase in the proportion of the landscape treated. However, our results suggest that in cases where fuel management does significantly reduce the risk of impacts posed by bushfires, this reduction was much less than an increase in risk from climate change.

It should be noted that this project focused on the rural-urban interface in alignment with the existing Bushfire Risk Management Planning approach adopted in Western Australia. As such, landscape-scale mitigation was not considered in this particular project, but would be an important consideration in future research.

}, keywords = {bushfire risk, Climate change, Fuel management, Western Australia}, issn = {714}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7870, title = {The influence of satellite imagery on landscape perception}, journal = {Landscape Research}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, abstract = {

The perception of landscapes involves the process of categorising and differentiating surrounds according to sensory information and the experiences of individuals. Increasingly, due to the ubiquitous nature of virtual globe platforms, individuals are accessing visual information about their surrounding environment through satellite imagery. This investigation aims to examine how people{\textquoteright}s perceptions of landscapes are changing when our experiences increasingly occur in digital space, altering the perception paradigm from one where individuals analyse direct objects to one where indirect objects are key in the formation of their perceptions. A case study in Chile, South America, is used to explore the influence of satellite imagery with 52 survey participants responding to questions about land use and land cover (LULC) patterns of the area, before and after, unstructured exploration of the region using Google Earth. The results indicate that satellite imagery is influencing how individuals perceive LULC patterns within their direct surroundings.

}, keywords = {Google Earth, land cover, land use, landscape patterns, Landscape perception, satellite imagery}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2021.1886264}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01426397.2021.1886264}, author = {Daisy San Martin Saldias and Karin Reinke and Blythe McLennan and Luke Wallace} } @article {bnh-7761, title = {The influence of soil moisture on surface and sub-surface litter fuel moisture simulation at five Australian sites}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {298-299}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

Fuel moisture content (FMC) of the litter is a critical factor determining fire ignition and spread and is an important input for most fire behaviour prediction models. Several models, ranging from empirical regression functions to physics-based models, have been developed to forecast litter FMC. Soil moisture below the litter layer has been shown to influence litter FMC, but few models explicitly consider its effect. This study aimed to evaluate how soil moisture content may affect litter FMC by coupling soil moisture as a boundary condition to the physics-based {\textquoteleft}Koba{\textquoteright} model, which simulates radiation, energy and moisture fluxes in the surface and subsurface litter layer. The coupled model was tested at five sites in Victoria, Australia, where litter FMC values were recorded continuously during 2014-2015 using calibrated fuel stick sensors. Two versions of the model were compared against the observations: an uncoupled model and a model version accounting for the vapour flux from soil to litter. The simulation results show that the influence of soil moisture depends on environmental conditions. Soil moisture appeared to have a minor influence on FMC when both soil and litter are dry, but a stronger influence when the soil is relatively wet. Correspondingly, the coupled model explained observed FMC better than the uncoupled model for the two wetter study sites. As expected, the subsurface litter in contact with the soil appeared more sensitive to soil moisture conditions than the surface litter. The influence of soil vapour flux on litter FMC can be considerable during the transition from wet to dry litter and soil conditions. This has implications for hazard reduction burning, which is typically planned to take advantage of transitional fuel moisture conditions. Further research is needed to understand the influence of the structure and thickness of litter on the importance of soil vapour flux.

}, keywords = {Coupled model, Dead fuel, forecast, fuel moisture content, Soil moisture}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108282}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168192320303841?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Li Zhao and Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Stuart Matthews and Gary J. Sheridan} } @article {bnh-8303, title = {Initial growth of fires in eucalypt litter, from ignition to steady-state rate of spread: laboratory studies}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, abstract = {

As part of an investigation of wildfire growth and acceleration, the initial growth of incipient fires burning in uniform dry eucalypt forest (Eucalyptus rossii,\ E. macrorhyncha) litter fuel of 1.2 kg m-2\ was studied in a combustion wind tunnel with a fuel bed width of 1.5 m. Fifty-eight fires of three ignition patterns (point, 400-mm line and 800-mm line) were carried out at two air speeds (1.25 and 2.0 m s-1) and two dead fuel moisture content (FMC) groups for each air speed (<=7.5\% and \>7.5\% oven-dry weight for the low air speed and <=5\% and \>5\% for the high air speed). The fraction of steady-state rate of spread reached as a function of time was determined and fitted to two theoretical fire growth models from the literature. The best model suggests the times for a point ignition fire to reach steady-state spread rate were ~38 and 50 min under the higher FMC for 2.0 m s-1\ and 1.25 m s-1\ air speeds, respectively, and ~25 min under the lower FMC for 2.0 m s-1. Future work will extend these results to field-scale fire behaviour, which will help improve operational response to wildfire outbreaks and planning of ignition patterns for prescribed burning.

}, keywords = {acceleration, combustion wind tunnel, experiments, Fire behaviour, fire development, fire growth, Pyrotron, Rate of spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21094}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF21094}, author = {J.S. Gould and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-7836, title = {Integrating wildfire risk management and spatial planning {\textendash} A historical review of two Australian planning systems}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {53}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, abstract = {

Recent wildfires burning throughout Australia highlight the vulnerability of settlements located in wildland urban interface (WUI) areas. Spatial planning has a critical role in operationalising wildfire risk reduction considerations in a territorial manner across the WUI. Accordingly, more integrated approaches to wildfire management and spatial planning are necessary. However, there is limited literature examining the historical interactions between wildfire and spatial planning policy sectors and how institutions and policy instruments adapt over time to integrate mutually dependent considerations. To address this gap, this research examines how Australian spatial planning institutions and instruments evolved since European settlement to incorporate wildfire considerations, through a qualitative comparative case study approach of two Australian states. Based on the findings of the case study comparison, this paper presents a conceptual framework of the pathways towards increased policy integration of spatial planning and wildfire risk reduction that consists of six phases. It is argued that the path to greater policy integration is grounded on the development of common knowledge, a cross-disciplinary understanding, and agreed policy goals between different policy sectors, that, with time, translate into new institutional arrangements and instruments that integrate the work and decision-making processes of different sectors.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, governance, Integration, Spatial planningm Urban planning, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101984}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420920314862?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Simone Ruane and Alan March} } @article {bnh-8288, title = {Interactive influence of ENSO and IOD on contiguous heatwaves in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

Australian heatwaves have a significant impact on society. Most previous studies focus on understanding them in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and timing. However, understanding the spatial characteristics of heatwaves, particularly those occurring in contiguous regions at the same time (here referred to as contiguous heatwaves), is still largely unexplored. Here, we analyse changes in spatial characteristics of contiguous heatwaves in Australia during 1958-2020 using observational data. Our results show that extremely large contiguous heatwaves are covering significantly larger areas and getting significantly longer during the recent period (1989/90-2019/20) compared to the historical period (1958/59-1988/89). We also investigated the association of contiguous heatwaves in Australia with interactions of the El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using a large multi-member ensemble of a physical climate model. We found that areal magnitude, total area, median duration, and maximum area of large and extremely large contiguous heatwaves in Australia are significantly higher (lower) during the strong El Ni{\~n}o (Es), strong El Ni{\~n}o co-occurring with strong IOD positive (Es-IPs), and with moderate IOD positive (Es-IPm) (co-occurring strong La Ni{\~n}a with the strong IOD negative (Ls-INs)) seasons relative to the neutral seasons (where both ENSO and IOD are in neutral phase). During the Es, Es-IPm, and Es-IPs seasons, the large-scale physical mechanisms are characterised by anticyclonic highs over the southeast and cyclonic lows over the northwest of Australia, favouring the occurrence and intensification of heatwaves in Australia. These results provide insights into the driving mechanisms of contiguous heatwaves in Australia.

}, keywords = {Climate and Earth system modelling, ENSO, heatwaves, IOD}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e9a}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e9a}, author = {P Jyoteeshkumar reddy and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-8129, title = {Kangaroo Island Black Summer fire reconstruction}, number = {685}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the 2019-20 summer, wildfire affected an area of around 200,000 hectares on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, in what has become known as the Black Summer, with significant ongoing social, economic and environmental impacts.

The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 provides infrared imagery at 2km spatial resolution at nadir in 10- minute intervals. This allows wildfires to be detected and monitored in quasi-real time using the Biogeographical Region and Individual Geostationary HHMMSS Threshold (BRIGHT) algorithm (Engel, Jones and Reinke, 2020), developed in partnership between the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) and the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC. This report outlines the methods used to verify hotspots detected by the BRIGHT algorithm and reconstruct the Black Summer fires using spatio-temporal clustering.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire impacts, kangaroo island, reconstructions, remote sensing, Satellite}, issn = {685}, author = {Simon Ramsey and Karin Reinke and Nur Trihantoro and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-7947, title = {Learning to learn from bushfire: Perspectives from Victorian emergency management practitioners}, journal = {Australian Journal of Public Administration}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

The Black Summer Fires of 2019/2020 remind us not only that Australia is arguably the most bushfire prone area in the world but also that we have much to learn in terms of how we learn from such events. Bushfires interact with emergency management systems in a manner that is complex and unpredictable which all too often results in damages and losses, so significant that governments establish public inquiries to forensically examine what happened and why afterwards. Too often, such processes have resulted in emergency management practitioners (EMP) being blamed, not to mention scapegoated and even vilified for damages and losses from major bushfire events. With recent bushfire events (as well as other crises surrounding Covid-19) highlighting the excruciating demands placed on EMP and an escalating scepticism about whether public inquiries improve preparation for future bushfires, this paper explores the question: what can we learn about public inquiries based on the experiences of EMP?

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emergency management practitioners, Learning, public review processes, royal commission}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12476}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12476}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-7817, title = {The lived experience of disadvantaged communities affected by the 2015 South Indian Floods: Implications for disaster risk reduction dialogue}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Poverty and discrimination compound vulnerability to disasters. Yet, people who experience these are some of the least involved groups in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) dialogue and research. This study aims to fill that gap by narrating the lived experience of underprivileged flood-affected communities. We conducted in-depth interviews (N=48) with community members (n=36) and staff members of collaborating non-governmental organisations (n=12). We also conducted focus group discussions with staff members of the same NGOs. The results describe how systemic issues entrenched with socio-economic and cultural factors impact a community{\textquoteright}s ability to prepare for floods. These communities received no warning or timely evacuation messages, and perceived the received support as inadequate and unfair. Communities recovered through their resourcefulness and thoughtfulness. They resented the government for its lack of action throughout the disaster cycle. Priorities for future efforts involve actively engaging these vulnerable groups and tailoring DRR activities for them.

}, keywords = {Discrimination, DRR, Flood, Poverty, Social Vulnerability, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102046}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921000121}, author = {Revathi Krishna and Kevin Ronan and Caroline Spencer and Eva Alisic} } @article {bnh-7995, title = {Local Government Capacity and Land Use Planning for Natural Hazards: A Comparative Evaluation of Australian Local Government Areas}, journal = {Planning Practice \& Research}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, abstract = {

Global and national strategy emphasises land use planning as a key mechanism for disaster risk reduction (DRR). The practice of planning for natural hazards is devolved to local levels, making the capacity of local government critical for achieving strategic DRR goals. This study assessed the capacity of local governments in Australia to plan for natural hazards. Many Local Government Areas (LGAs) had satisfactory or good hazard planning provision, but remoteness, land area and council size influence poor hazard planning provision. Strategic intent for land use planning as a DRR mechanism is unlikely to be successful in many LGAs without first addressing place-based capacity constraints on hazard planning.

}, keywords = {disaster resilience, Local government, plan evaluation, Risk assessment}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2021.1919431}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02697459.2021.1919431}, author = {James McGregor and Melissa Parsons and Sonya Glavac} } @conference {bnh-8275, title = {Long-range fire weather predictions developed and service established as new capability for Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC21}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, publisher = {AFAC}, organization = {AFAC}, address = {Online}, abstract = {

Factors providing long-range predictability for this system include the pre-existing moisture content of vegetation (using agricultural drought measures), large-scale modes of variability (e.g., El Nino), sudden stratospheric warmings (e.g., polar vortex variations contributed to the severity of the 2019/20 summer) and long-term climate change.

The guidance products were designed with a user-driven approach, based on strong end-user engagement throughout the project. These long-range predictions are part of broader efforts to deliver seamless guidance over a wide range of time scales. Fire weather predictions and data are now available in a consistent form for long-range predictions out to several months ahead, historical records back to 1950 and future climate projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance planning capabilities from short to long time-scales, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction for natural hazards. These fire weather outlooks have been described as a step change in improved capability, developed through user engagement, including for supporting risk reduction in prescribed burning and operational planning requirements.

}, keywords = {Capability, Fire, predictions, weather}, url = {https://www.afac.com.au/events/proceedings/06-10-21/article/long-range-fire-weather-predictions-developed-and-service-established-as-new-capability-for-australia}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J} } @article {bnh-7962, title = {Managing problematic visual media in natural hazard emergencies}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

In natural hazard emergencies, visual media (images, videos) document and convey the possible risk, impact, and severity of the hazard. Issues arise when the visuals being circulated, at scale and speed, are manipulated, fake, or are from an unrelated event or location. These problematic visuals can impact how communities interpret the risk of an emergency. Further, when visual media present information (i.e. a cue) in conflict with what an emergency services agency is instructing the public to do, it can lead to uncertainty and confusion in the community on how to act. This research identifies four specific types of problematic visual media that are common to natural hazard emergencies in Australia. We propose a combination of reactive and proactive strategies that can be employed by emergency services agencies to manage the extent and impact of these problematic visuals.

}, keywords = {risk communication visuals media conflicting cues misinformation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102249}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921002156$\#$!}, author = {Paula Dootson and T.J. Thomson and Daniel Angus and Sophie Miller and Edward Hurcombe and Adam Smith} } @article {bnh-7880, title = {Mental health and wellbeing of Australian police and emergency services employees}, journal = {Archives of Environmental \& Occupational Health}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

Answering the Call, the Australian National Police and Emergency Services Mental Health and Wellbeing Study, surveyed 14,868 Australian ambulance, fire and rescue, police, and state emergency service employees. Emergency services personnel had lower rates of mental wellbeing and higher rates of psychological distress and probable PTSD than the general adult population. Overall 30\% had low wellbeing, 21\% had high and 9\% had very high psychological distress, and 10\% had probable PTSD. An estimated 5\% had suicidal ideation and 2\% had a suicide plan in the past 12 months, while 16\% binge drink at least weekly. Only one in five of those with very high psychological distress or probable PTSD felt they received adequate support for their condition. These findings highlight the risk of mental health conditions associated with work in the emergency services sector.

}, keywords = {Ambulance, common mental disorders, firefighters, mental health, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychological distress, service users, stigma and discrimination}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19338244.2021.1893631}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19338244.2021.1893631?journalCode=vaeh20}, author = {Michael Kyron and Wavne Rikkers and Jennifer Bartlett and Emma Renehan and Katherine Hafekost and Michael Baigent and Rebecca Cunneen and David Lawrence} } @article {bnh-8013, title = {A method for assessing building codes for natural hazard resilience}, number = {612}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Building codes regulate the design and materials of structures in the built environment, often in parallel with related processes such as land use planning. Building codes establish a standard of certainty that structures achieve pre-established levels of safety and health. In parallel, building codes are potentially able to contribute to natural hazard resilience, although ongoing improvements are needed to account for a variety of emerging challenges and insights from new research.

This summary outlines a generalised method to assess building codes, their application in New South Wales, and related mechanisms in terms of their contribution to natural hazard resilience, identifying areas for improvement and further research. It ensures that methods used and findings are reported in language and formats easily accessible by a wider audience of emergency management, land use planning and design practitioners.

}, keywords = {assessing, building, codes, method, natural hazard, nsw, resilience}, issn = {612}, author = {Alan March and Crystal Legacy and Georgia Warren-Myers and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-8285, title = {Mind the gap: Contrasting operational and behavior-oriented flood warnings}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

During flood events, warnings issued by emergency service agencies serve to communicate risk and guide community behavior. Yet research shows that while warnings convey operational details, they may not always be understood and appropriately actioned in a timely manner by the public. Such maladaptive behavior can place multiple parties at risk of injury and fatality. Few studies empirically consider and compare the effectiveness of traditional agency-designed operational warnings with other designs such as behavior-oriented warnings. The former typically contain technical and operational detail while the latter provide immediate priority and greater emphasis on translating the situation into specific behavioral actions to be undertaken by the public. Using operational versus newly developed behavior-oriented warnings from New South Wales State Emergency Service in Australia, a total of 774 community members rated each type of scaled warning and their likelihood to engage in adaptive and maladaptive behaviors following exposure to warnings designed to convey one of five levels of an unfolding flooding scenario from its beginning to conclusion ({\textquoteleft}Prepare for flooding{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Be ready to evacuate{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Evacuate{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Too late to evacuate{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Safe to return{\textquoteright}). Findings showed positive response to both types of warnings, with behavior-oriented warnings offering greater benefit for perception factors (e.g., risk and comprehension) and adaptive behavioral intentions.

}, keywords = {Behavior-oriented, community, Flood, risk communication, Warnings}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102685}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921006464}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Dominique Greer and Clinton Weeks and Lisa Schuster and Scott Murray and Paula Dootson and Andrew Richards} } @article {bnh-7839, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fire, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - final project report}, number = {646}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, titled Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts, was a partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, and examined the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project addresses a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events. The research conducted in the present project solely focuses on the application of soil and land dryness/moisture in the context of fire danger and fire management practices. The lack of focus on flood and heatwave is circumstantial. The research priorities were set and driven by the requirements of the project end-users, all of them from various fire management agencies across Australia. Hence, the end-use interest was solely on the application of the research in fire management. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing that there is a substantial amount of research literature which establishes the importance of soil moisture in flood and heatwave prediction and applications.

Currently, landscape dryness for fire management is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI). An initial study performed as part of this project suggested that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physics-based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

JASMIN prototype

To address this, the present project developed a standalone prototype land surface modelling system, called Joint UK Land Environment Simulator based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations shows that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

Though JASMIN can supplement many applications that require accurate soil moisture estimates, the biggest beneficiary of this new system will be the fire agencies. The soil moisture estimate from the new system provides a robust alternative to the methods currently used in fire prediction. This is evident from the verifications performed against in situ measurements. KBDI and SDI show large errors over regions where they are used operationally. KBDI, for example, has a large wet bias over southern regions that could undermine fire danger ratings. The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture information over a wide range of land-use types, which potentially extends its applicability to other fields as well. Also, JASMIN is shown to have good skill for both surface and deep soil horizons.

JASMIN calibration

To promote an effective adoption of JASMIN in current operational practices, calibration methods were applied to the native JASMIN soil moisture datasets. The key aim of these methods was to calibrate JASMIN outputs in units of moisture excess to moisture deficit values that range from 0{\textendash}200, as required by McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI; McArthur, 1967). The calibration offers a simple, faster and cost-effective way to make significant upgrades to the existing operational systems used by fire and other environmental agencies.

The calibration methods applied were minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function matching. The selection of these calibration methods was based on the potential end-user requirement, whether that is to simply replace the legacy systems with a new product with high skill (e.g., minimum-maximum method), or to replace the existing system that captures the temporal variations better while preserving the climatology of the older system (e.g., mean-variance and cumulative distribution function matching). The latter could be useful if existing operating systems are already tuned to offset the bias in the current soil moisture deficit methods.

Improving high spatial resolution mapping

This project also aimed to improve applications such as fire danger mapping that may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. A common practice to overcome such a problem is to employ downscaling methods to increase the spatial scale of the product. Recent advances in optical remote sensing have allowed researchers to use different remote sensing products that reflect soil moisture variability as ancillary information. A method based on a {\textquotedblleft}universal triangle{\textquotedblright} concept is used in several previous studies, which establishes a relationship between soil moisture, vegetation index, and surface radiant temperature from optical remote sensing. This project applied three downscaling methodologies: two based on regression and one based on a physics-based approach.

Results from the downscaling methodologies indicate that it is feasible to improve the spatial resolution of JASMIN using all three disaggregating algorithms and preserve the general large-scale spatial structure seen in JASMIN soil moisture estimates. However, the seasonal means obtained at 1 km show that each product displays characteristic soil moisture spatial variability at fine scales. Results from the comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods when moving to higher spatial resolution.

Predicting live fuel moisture content

Prediction of the moisture status in live fuels is an important gap in current fire management practices which, if filled, can potentially be useful for spatial and temporal assessment of landscape dryness. The final objective of the project was thus to explore the relationship between soil moisture and live fuel moisture content (LFMC) using the datasets from JASMIN and Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS), respectively. The analysis carried out indicates that soil moisture is a leading indicator of LFMC. This project developed a simple yet skilful model to predict live fuel moisture content for the whole of Australia.

The key variable is the 0-350 mm layer soil moisture derived from the JASMIN system. The modelling strategy pursued consists of a linear combination of two sub-models: one to capture the annual cycle and one to capture the daily variations. A time function represents the LFMC annual cycle model. The daily deviations in LFMC are captured by using a linear regression model with 14-day lagged daily deviations in soil moisture as the input. The daily changes in soil moisture are computed by deviations from its annual cycle.

When evaluated over 60 sites, the approach returned an average R2 of 0.64 with normalised root mean square error values of \<25\% at all sites. As researchers were employing a gridded soil moisture product, this strategy facilitates the reconstruction of past events, as well as data gap filling. The lag of 14 days implies a lead time of 14 days for predicting the LFMC. This has significant operational implications, as daily variations in LFMC can be predicted using soil moisture information from JASMIN on a national scale.

JASMIN is currently run as a prototype research system, with soil moisture analysis done only near-real-time. However, JASMIN can be extended to produce both real-time analysis and forecasts. The prognostic mode can provide soil moisture forecasts for up to 10 days. This means a maximum lead time of 24 days can be achieved by utilising soil moisture forecasts.

JASMIN utilisation

A key focus of the project from its inception was to create pathways for easier utilisation of the project deliverables. This is reflected in both the scientific and technical approaches adopted in this project. For example, the calibration of JASMIN to KBDI and SDI was done to facilitate the ready utilisation of JASMIN in the existing operational system. A total of 8 calibrated JASMIN soil dryness products were developed and made available through the Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s THREDDS server. The JASMIN soil moisture in volumetric units at 4 layers are also provided via the THREDDS server for interested parties to evaluate. The volumetric soil moisture fields from the top two JASMIN layers (0-100 mm and 100-350 mm) are available via AFMS as well.

The datasets on both THREDDS and AFMS are updated near-real-time. There is a continuing interest in the end-user community in utilising JASMIN for various fire management applications. In that respect, JASMIN has been assessed in the Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions study on tall wet forest fuel availability. Tasmania Parks and Wildlife has also been using JASMIN as a decision-support tool to restrict the use of open fires in national parks. Also, JASMIN data were updated specifically to assist with Tasmanian decision-making for 2018-19 seasonal bushfire assessment workshop and preseason consultative committee on fire weather.

The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture estimates over a wide range of land-use types and can support many applications that require accurate soil moisture information. However, there is still scope for improvements to the JASMIN system, whether it be the skill or the scale.

An immediate focus could be the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the skill of JASMIN. Data assimilation allows uncertainties in land surface model soil moisture to be offset to some extent by routinely updating the hydrological conditions using the information provided by observations on state variables used by land surface models. The assimilation of satellite observations is shown to improve the model soil moisture state. In that respect, the use of NASA{\textquoteright}s land information system (LIS) is being evaluated at the Bureau. The LIS is a complex framework that uses extensible interfaces to allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models, land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimisation algorithms. The extensible nature of these interfaces, and the component style specifications of the system, allow rapid prototyping and development of new applications. The JASMIN system can be incorporated within LIS to facilitate the assimilation of various observation types. Further, it can be leveraged to run JASMIN with an enhanced spatial resolution, desirably at 1 km.

}, keywords = {Floods, forecasts, heatwaves, land dryness, measures, mitigation, severe fire}, issn = {646}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-7834, title = {Modulating influence of drought on the synergy between heatwaves and dead fine fuel moisture content of bushfire fuels in the Southeast Australian region}, journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes}, volume = {31}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

During the 2019-20 summer season, Australia experienced frequent heatwave events with scorching temperatures and massive bushfires with dense smoke. These catastrophic heatwaves and bushfires resulted in huge socio-economic and ecological losses. The frequency and intensity of both heatwaves and bushfires are projected to increase in the future warming world. While considerable effort has been directed at understanding the physical mechanisms of these individual extreme events, an investigation of their interaction is lacking. We focus on the relationship between heatwaves and bushfire fuels by considering dead fine fuel moisture content, a critical factor that regulates the intensity, spread rate and the likelihood of profuse spotting of fires. We investigate the relationship by exploring the statistical correlations between various heatwave characteristics (frequency, duration, magnitude, and amplitude) and mean dead fine fuel moisture content over southeast Australia in the peak heat and fire season. This relationship varies among different heatwave characteristics as well as with regions. The prolonged duration of a heatwave is well associated with dead fine fuel dryness around the southeastern parts of the Southeast Australian region, whereas the hotter heatwave season favours the lower dead fine fuel moisture content over the Northeast parts of the Southeast Australia and central Victorian region. Results also suggest that dead fine fuel moisture content is significantly decreased on heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days. Lastly, we explored the effects of rainfall deficit on the relationship between heatwave and mean dead fine fuel moisture content by splitting the seasons based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Results show that the correlation strength is both seasonally and regionally dependent.

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, Drought, Extreme events, fuel moisture content, heatwaves}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100300}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720303133}, author = {P Jyoteeshkumar reddy and Jason J. Sharples and Sophie Lewis and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick} } @article {bnh-8203, title = {Multi-hazard review of the comprehensiveness of Victorian urban planning for disaster risk reduction}, number = {700}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The research undertook a multi-hazard review of the comprehensiveness of Victorian urban planning for natural hazard disaster risk reduction.\  It compared ideal approaches and outcomes with current processes, treatments, and systems.

The project focussed on the Planning and Environment Act (1987) (The Act) and the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPPs), in parallel with key supporting documents and processes.

At a high level, the VPPs set out some strong underpinnings for action to address natural hazard risks.\  Certain hazards, notably Bushfire and Flood are dealt with quite comprehensively. However comprehensive integration into the VPPs across various hazards and treatments is incomplete. Key findings are as follows.

}, keywords = {comprehensiveness, Disaster risk reduction, Multi-hazard, review, urban planning, Victoria}, issn = {700}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7975, title = {A Mutual Information-Based Likelihood Function for Particle Filter Flood Extent Assimilation}, journal = {Water Reseources Research}, volume = {57}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Accurate flood inundation forecasts have the potential to minimize socioeconomic losses, but uncertainties in inflows propagated from the precipitation forecasts result in large prediction errors. Recent studies suggest that by assimilating independent flood observations, inherent uncertainty in hydraulic flood inundation modeling can be mitigated. Satellite observations from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, with demonstrated flood monitoring capability, can thus be used to reduce flood forecast uncertainties through assimilation. However, researchers have struggled to develop an appropriate cost function to determine the innovation to be applied at each assimilation time step. Thus, a novel likelihood function based on mutual information (MI) is proposed here, for use with a particle filter-based (PF) flood extent assimilation framework. Using identical twin experiments, synthetic SAR-based probabilistic flood extents were assimilated into the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP using the proposed PF-MI algorithm. The 2011 flood event in the Clarence Catchment, Australia was used for this study. The impact of assimilating flood extents was evaluated in terms of subsequent flood extent evolution, floodplain water depths, flow velocities and channel water levels (WLs). Water depth and flow velocity simulations improved by \~{}60\% over the open loop on an average and persisted for up to 7\ days, following the sequential assimilation of two post-peak flood extent observations. Flood extents and channel WLs also showed mean improvements of \~{}10\% and \~{}80\% in accuracy, respectively, indicating that the proposed MI likelihood function can improve flood extent assimilation.

}, keywords = {data assimilation, flood forecasting, hydraulic modeling, particle filter, predictive uncertainty, synthetic aperture radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027859}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020WR027859}, author = {Antara Dasgupta and Renaud Hostache and RAAJ Ramsankaran and Guy Schumann and Stefania Grimaldi and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-8208, title = {Nandong smong and tsunami lullabies: Song and music as an effective communication tool in disaster risk reduction}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {65}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, abstract = {

Growing international appreciation of the increasing risk posed by natural hazard events acknowledges the effects that climate change and increasingly vulnerable populations will have on future costs and casualties of disasters. As concerns about the impacts of natural hazard events increase, researchers and practitioners are interested in identifying effective processes to build individual and community resilience. To date, despite resources, time and effort being made by governments and NGOs to encourage disaster risk reduction (DRR) programs at national, regional and local levels, most communities remain poorly prepared, and improvements have only been incremental.

One way to gain insight into systems that may improve local community resilience is to examine (rare) examples where communities have avoided the worst impacts of a natural disaster through implementation of recognizable DRR strategies. One example is Simeulue Island in Indonesia. Simeulue was only 43\ km from the epicenter of the earthquake that initiated the Indian Ocean tsunami in December 2004. The 15\ m tsunami waves destroyed all but two of the islands 171 schools, 60 bridges, 41 medical centers and left 85\% of the population homeless; but only 7 out of the 80,000 inhabitants died [1]. Music and song have been identified as an important part of Simeulue{\textquoteright}s DRR success [2-4]. This paper discusses the nature of the songs of Simeulue and considers the socio-cognitive processes whereby music was co-opted to entrain risk information about tsunami and their avoidance into the Simeulue community{\textquoteright}s Sense of Coherence ({\textquoteleft}SOC{\textquoteright}). The findings indicate that the people of Simeulue applied techniques now understood to optimize learning. While highly effective, they rely on rudimentary human skills and have consequently been overlooked or ignored in most formal DRR contexts.

}, keywords = {communication, disasters, DRR, education, Music, Song, Story}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102527}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242092100488X?dgcid=author}, author = {Sutton, S and Paton, Douglas and Burgelt , Petra T. and Saut Sagala and Ella Meilianda} } @article {bnh-7810, title = {North Australian bushfire and natural hazard training - final project report}, number = {644}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides an overview, including the north Australian bushfire and natural hazard ({\textquoteleft}BNH{\textquoteright}) context and the social background for the North Australian Bushfire and Natural Hazard Training project.

The project has proceeded slowly (five years) and has changed dramatically as a result of engaging in Participatory Action Research ({\textquoteleft}PAR{\textquoteright}). This approach to researching the training needs of residents of remote north Australian communities encouraged these residents to participate in the framing of the enquiry as well as the generation of answers and training materials.

Several desktop reviews were undertaken during the project. These examined the existing BNH training offerings as well as the opportunities that existed at the time for Indigenous community members to obtain leadership training. The reviews found that where training existed it largely omitted Indigenous perspectives, particularly in terms of strategic overviews and planning. For leadership training, it was found that where remote communities were able to access training for BNH it did not focus on leadership and that which focused on leadership did not include BNH management.

In response to the views of project participants and the reviews, the project developed a set of training units that, taken together, drew together the essential elements of Indigenous and non-Indigenous BNH training in a Vocational Education and Training ({\textquoteleft}VET{\textquoteright}) style program. The program does however modify the {\textquoteleft}standard{\textquoteright} VET approach through the provision of flexible temporal arrangements for training and assessing. This need was identified as the project recognized the requirement to train {\textquoteleft}on Country [1]{\textquoteright} and to use local knowledge-holders in the preparations for and delivery of the training.

Nine formal {\textquoteleft}engagements{\textquoteright} were held over the life of the project, including workshops and three training pilots. In each pilot, different components of the ten training units were presented and refined. A detailed and culturally appropriate evaluation was undertaken of each pilot and the feedback was incorporated into the next {\textquoteleft}round{\textquoteright} of pilot training.

10 training units have been developed by the project. Some of these are entirely new while others are adaptations of existing training, albeit adapted sufficient to warrant a new unit descriptor.

The 10 units have not yet been subject to National Accreditation, but are designed to map onto the Standards for VET Accredited Courses as set out by the Australian Skills Quality Authority. Each unit has been framed in terms of {\textquoteleft}Elements and Performance Criteria{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Evidence Guide{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Requiired Skills and Knowledge{\textquoteright} and a {\textquoteleft}Range Statement{\textquoteright}.


[1] The capitalised term {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} is used throughout to indicate the entity which extends well beyond the English term for {\textquoteleft}nation{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}rural{\textquoteright}. For the Indigenous people who participated in this project {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} refers an entity which transcends physical, moral, spiritual and metaphysical realms and of which they are an integral part. Country is at all times the ground on which one stands but also inside a person (cf. Holmes \& Janpajimpa 2013: 18). It is something one can be taken off, but can never be removed from within.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, natural hazard, north australia, training}, issn = {644}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-7964, title = {NSW Mid North Coast flood impact research}, number = {659}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

On March 18, 2021, an extreme rainfall event kicked off, resulting in severe flooding in the Mid North Coast of New South Wales. 18,000 people were evacuated, including 1,000 flood rescues. Flooding also impacted the North Coast, Hunter, Western Sydney, South Coast, Central West, and North West Regions of NSW. Flooding was also experienced in Southeast Queensland. The focus of this briefing is on flood impacts experienced on the NSW Mid North Coast.

Overview

On March 24, Risk Frontiers, with assistance from the BNHCRC, deployed a survey team to the NSW Mid North Coast region to observe and report on significant flooding in the area. Areas surveyed included, Bulahdelah, Taree, Wingham, Port Macquarie, North Haven, Laurieton, and Dunbogan. In addition to measuring flood depths and recording noteworthy damages to belongings and infrastructure, the team spoke with residents, business owners, and rescue personnel (Rural Fire Service, NSW Fire and Rescue, and State Emergency Services). Discussions covered evacuation, emergency response and communication, community resilience, and the insurability of their homes.

A couple of key issues emerged during the investigation. The first was insurance affordability in areas that were clearly at risk of flooding. Some residents and business owners we spoke with cited quotes for policies covering flood ranging from $5k - $30k per year. Our survey indicates that the full extent of damage will not be evident in claims data due to the low rates of insurance as a lot of individuals had chosen to remain uninsured due to the prohibitive costs quoted for them. Disaster mitigation needs to be considered in these areas to assist with insurance affordability.

Another common concern expressed was the lack of warning and mitigative action. For example, some residents had not considered sandbagging. Residents claimed they were either misinformed or warned too late, and then felt aspects of the process to recover were unclear.

}, keywords = {Flood, Impact, Mid North Coast, New South Wales, quick response, research}, issn = {659}, author = {Steve George and Salom{\'e} Hussein and R Crompton and Thomas Mortlock} } @article {bnh-8157, title = {Numerical study on effect of relative humidity (and fuel moisture) on modes of grassfire propagation}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, abstract = {

Relative humidity of air is directly related to fuel moisture. Fuel moisture is often considered as the index of flammability in the context of bushfire. Variation of relative humidity and fuel moisture is considered to have a significant effect on the rate of spread of grassfire propagation and fire intensity. In this study, four sets of grassfire simulations have been conducted: three sets with 210 mm high grass and another set with 175 mm high grass. For all sets, the ambient temperature was kept constant while relative humidity and fuel moisture were varied, with fuel moisture deduced from the McArthur MKV GFDI model. With 210 mm grass heights, driving wind velocities were varied. Lower relative humidity (and fuel moisture) was observed to lead to higher fire intensity and a faster rate of spread, which are intuitively expected. Byram number analysis showed that relative humidity (and fuel moisture) can lead to change in the fire propagation mode (wind-driven vs buoyancy-driven), but the greater factor is the wind velocity.

}, keywords = {Byram number, grassfire, Mode of fire propagation, Physics-based modelling, relative humidity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2021.103422}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0379711221001636}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-7889, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes {\textendash} final project report}, number = {648}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire managers often have multiple objectives for a given prescribed burn centred around risk reduction and conservation of biodiversity. The ability to predict the effects of prescribed burning on the capacity of forests to deliver ecosystem services such as clean air, carbon sequestration, and a reliable and high-quality supply of water is becoming increasingly more important.

The body of research detailed in this Synthesis Report represents a concerted effort to understand the effect of prescribed burning on water quantity and carbon losses and gains in forested ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. We collected empirical data from over 100 sampling sites treated with a recent prescribed burn. The sampling strategy we used was consistent over time with target sampling variables included for estimation of overstorey and understorey biomass and direct sampling of surface and near surface fuel loads. Site selection was stratified to accommodate as much site variability as possible and to take full advantage of prescribed burn plans.

Data collected from the field was used in a variety of modelling assignments to capture the effect of prescribed burning on changes in water availability and transformation of carbon pools. Using a mixture of models and empirical sampling and analysis, we showed that there are few risks to long-term carbon and water cycles when prescribed burning is conducted on cycles of 10 or so years. Critical to this analysis is the frequency of bushfires {\textendash} if the inter-fire interval of unplanned fires becomes short (e.g., \<50 years) then ecosystem losses of carbon and reductions in water yield are likely to become semi-permanent features.

Our modelling endeavours ranged from relatively complex process-based models describing water and carbon balances through to simple response surface models. By exploring the transformation of carbon pools in surface fuels during prescribed burning, we developed robust yet simple-to-use models for predicting changes in total carbon and biomass in this fuel fraction. The novel application of FullCAM, a well-established model used for carbon accounting, was tested for its ability to incorporate often subtle changes in forest growth and carbon transformation associated with prescribed burning. We found this model to be relatively sensitive and recommend it to fire managers for applications such as estimation of carbon emissions. Based on our key findings, we advocate for continued research and evidence-based application of prescribed burning as a valuable land management approach.

Data assembled from peer-reviewed publications and researchers worldwide was mined for changing trends in publications concerning prescribed burning, global patterns of litterfall and standing litter, and water use efficiency of forests. These summative studies informed our research direction and chartered our progress.

A considerable number of student projects have been supported during the course of this project contributing to the training of the next generation of researchers and land managers.

}, keywords = {burning regimes, carbon, fuel reduction, optimisation, vegetation, water}, issn = {648}, author = {Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A. and Mathias Neumann and Danica Parnell and David Pepper and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7890, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia - final project report}, number = {649}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards where they occur as in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we make the right policy choices for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires deep thinking in order to be able to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy, and help them become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017).

This project has estimated the impact of four disasters in recent Australian history on income of individuals residing in disaster-hit areas. By defining individuals{\textquoteright} ability to return to their pre-disaster income levels as economic resilience, we focused on the following case studies: The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, the 2009 Toodyay bushfires, the 2013 Tropical Cyclone Oswald, and the 2010-11 Queensland floods. Through real-life case studies, our research helps illustrate how these events{\textemdash}of different types, localities, and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time.\ 

We have employed the difference-in-differences modelling approach to pinpoint the income changes due to the disasters. That is, we compared the income levels of individuals living in the disaster-hit areas (treatment group) with incomes of those who resided in comparable areas that were not directly hit by the disaster (control group). The control group provides us with the income path that would have been expected for the disaster-hit population had the disasters not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) in the disaster-hit areas. To identify the economic vulnerabilities, we analysed in detail the income changes with respect to individuals{\textquoteright} demographic attributes and sectors of employment. Our primary dataset is the Australian Longitudinal Census Dataset of 2006, 2011 and 2016, which includes 5\% representative sample of the Australian population and provides data on a range of our economic, demographic, and sectoral variables.

The research has found that the extent of the economic impact of disasters on individuals{\textquoteright} income depends on the type, intensity, and location of the disaster. This finding departs from most policy assumptions, which tend to put all the disasters into the same basket when designing relief and recovery programs.

However, there are also common vulnerable groups across different disasters. We found that certain sectors, such as agriculture and accommodation and food services (of which tourism is part) tend to be the most adversely affected sectors across all types, locality and severity of disasters.

An additional clear insight obtained in this research is that {\textquoteleft}economic smallness{\textquoteright} is a point of vulnerability. In particular, low income earners, small-business owners and part-time workers are more likely to lose income following a disaster. Middle and high-income earners, full-time workers and owners of larger businesses are far less likely to lose income; indeed, they might even earn more.

Part of the reason why the {\textquoteleft}economically smaller{\textquoteright} demographic groups are vulnerable to disasters is that they are employed in disaster-sensitive sectors. Thus, the sectoral vulnerability is translated into demographic vulnerability.

We also found that time frame for recovery matters. For example, following the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, low-income individuals and the female workforce experienced lower income levels that persisted until 2016. This contrasts with high-income earners, who despite having lost income in the short term, were able to bounce back to their original income trajectory by 2016. Even though it is intuitive to think that economic resilience levels could be different across different demographic and sectoral groups, this project brings this intuition to the fore, and documents exactly what those less resilient groups are, as well as the associated income losses (or gains).

Overall, this research has revealed disaster costs that would not normally be identified by the direct damage estimates. For example, the direct total (tangible and intangible) damages of the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were $7 billion (Deloitte Access Economics 2016). However, we found that, following the Black Saturday bushfires, agricultural employees who lived in the fire-ravaged areas lost an average of A$8,000 in annual income for the following two years. Employees in the accommodation and food services industries lost an average of A$5,000 per annum. The indirect loss estimates are typically bypassed in the wake of disasters, as the policy community typically focuses on the direct damage estimates when assessing the economic costs of disasters.

This research has also demonstrated that the burden of lost income due to the disasters is not borne equally. That is, the income gap routinely increased after disasters. For example, following the 2010-11 Queensland floods, the difference between those on low and middle incomes in the\ Brisbane River Catchment area\ increased by about $7,000 a year. This meant that the poor became poorer following disasters in Australia. In addition, female workers tend to lose income after some disasters compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, the income divide persisted in the medium term after some disasters. This finding of rising inequality is novel for Australia and was not documented previously.

In an earlier phase of this research program, during 2014-15, we studied the nation-wide impacts of floods and bushfires and their effects on economic sectors in Australia. This research used national accounts data from six Australian states for the period 1978-2014, and explored whether and how floods and bushfires as well as extreme weather (i.e. extreme precipitation and temperature) impacted the course of sectoral activity in the overall Australian economy.\  We found that Australia{\textquoteright}s sectoral output is sensitive to floods {\textendash} Australia lost more than two years{\textquoteright} worth of agricultural output during the period 1978-2014 due to floods. Bushfires, on the other hand, do not affect overall output, though they exhibit sectoral effects. The project Optimising Post-Disaster Recovery Interventions in Australia complements this earlier research by studying individuals{\textquoteright} income changes through four case studies.

The policy implications of this research are clear and important. Decision makers need to have a more disaggregated view to understand the economic impact of disasters. Our findings show that socioeconomic vulnerabilities are concentrated in certain demographic groups and sectors of the economy. In addition, both the poor and female employees exhibit lower economic resilience to disasters, in that they may not be fully able to return to their pre-disaster income trajectory in the medium-term. This highlights the potential for disasters to widen income inequality over time.

In a nutshell, this research suggests that policymakers need to better understand the socioeconomics of disasters and formulate public policies to better distribute scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and employment sectors that are more sensitive to disasters.

In terms of utilisation, the project has focused on generating awareness and provoking thoughts among the policy and wider community regarding economic effects of disasters on individuals. The project has produced four research reports pertaining to each case study, along with four policy briefs that summarized each report. The project also produced demographic profiling analyses for each disaster analysed. The findings from these four case studies were disseminated to a national audience through a webinar in August 2020, and the feedback received was overwhelmingly positive. The project has also published two articles in {\textquoteleft}News and Views: Australian Journal of Emergency Management{\textquoteright} and was featured in two articles in the Fire Australia magazine, which helped share the results with the emergency management sector. Finally, our demographic profiling analysis on the VIC Black Saturday bushfires and associated findings have been cited and discussed in the recent CSIRO Report to the Prime Minister Morrison on climate and disaster resilience (CSIRO, 2020).

The project has also made strong media engagement about its findings. These media outputs included, two articles in The Conversation, several radio interviews on the economic impact of bushfires (including two at ABC Radio National {\textquotedblleft}The Money{\textquotedblright} program with Richard Aedy, ABC North Queensland, South Korean eFM), a number of national newspaper articles, quotations and citations, several media releases made by the media team at Deakin University.

Looking ahead, we expect to disseminate our research reports and policy briefs more widely to public and private organisations in Australia. We also expect to disseminate our findings through media and policy engagement in the next bushfire season to create further awareness and provoke thoughts on how Australia can enhance the economic resilience of its communities. The project team is currently involved with new projects on the health and wellbeing analysis of Black Saturday bushfires and Queensland Floods as direct outcomes of the present project. Finally, we will be progressing a number of working papers that have greatly benefited from and been informed by our BNHCRC research program methodology and learnings.

To conclude, we believe that this project is the end of the beginning rather than beginning of the end regarding potential research projects in the economics of disasters in Australia.

}, keywords = {economics, interventions, optimising, post-disaster, recovery}, issn = {649}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-7840, title = {Persuasion without policies: The work of reviving Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} fire management in southern Australia}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {120}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, pages = {82-92}, abstract = {

Catastrophic and unprecedented wildfires have unfolded across fire-prone landscapes globally over the last three years, with highly publicized loss of human life, property destruction and ecological transformation. Indigenous peoples within many nations have persuasively argued that traditional fire management can enhance existing wildfire mitigation strategies. However, there are considerable barriers to the further incorporation of Indigenous practices into existing wildfire policy. This paper explores the potential of Indigenous fire management to achieve broader institutionalization, emphasizing the social labour involved producing and sustaining intercultural collaboration in bureaucratic contexts. Our focus is southern Australia where Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} fire management, often termed {\textquoteright}cultural burning{\textquoteright}, has been facilitated by an Indigenous-led social movement and growing state support. We draw on interviews conducted with Aboriginal and white land and hazard management practitioners actively engaged in intercultural fire management collaborations largely occurring on public lands. In the absence of institutional clarity, established networks and accreted experience these practitioners work to generate enthusiasm, stabilise Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} environmental authority and nullify pervasive societal fears surrounding the risk of fire. The case study demonstrates the significance of interpersonal factors in the emergence and maintenance of fraught intercultural collaborations. Despite global optimism, such insights highlight how the revival of Indigenous fire management in nations such as Australia is highly contingent and depends upon routine persuasive labour and fragile intercultural diplomacy.

}, keywords = {collaboration, Environmental management, Indigenous peoples, Natural hazards, Wildfire Settler-colonial}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.01.015}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718521000233}, author = {Will Smith and Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-8079, title = {Positive mental health in young adult emergency service personnel}, number = {675}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, pages = {107}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Overview

Fire and emergency service personnel, particularly those who volunteer, contribute in innumerable ways to their communities and to Australian society more broadly. Engaging in such a role brings the benefits of connecting with like-minded others and a valued sense of contributing to the community, benefiting mental health and wellbeing (Son \& Wilson, 2012). Concurrently, however, fire and emergency service personnel are more likely than the general population to be exposed to potentially traumatic events (PTE), are at higher risk for developing mental health conditions, and are at two-fold increased risk of suicidal ideation (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). Therefore, maintaining good mental health for personnel is increasingly recognised as an integral part of the sustainability of the fire and emergency services. Maximising the productivity and retention of younger early-career volunteers is particularly important, given that over half of the current volunteer force across many emergency services (ambulance, fire and rescue, state emergency service) exceeds 55 years of age (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). To ensure the sustainability of the fire and emergency services broadly and the volunteer force more specifically, recruitment and retention of younger volunteers is imperative.

While numerous individual, social and organisational factors have been identified as contributing to mental health and, thus, the sustainability of volunteering, mental health support frameworks, along with research and resources for the mental health of fire and emergency service personnel have focused on outcomes across the age range and length of service (Varker et al., 2018), with limited consideration given to developmental factors that may impact initial uptake and engagement. In particular, emerging adulthood (the period between ages 16{\textendash}25 years) is recognised as a specific phase of development that has its own particular constellation of psychosocial and demographic correlates (e.g., identity exploration and openness to possibility; Arnett, 2000). Australian young people tend to access support for mental health difficulties through different means than traditional face-to-face mental health services or programs, including from peers, parents and sourcing information regarding mental health online (Mission Australia \& Black Dog Institute, 2017). Uptake of formal mental health programs (e.g., school counselling) can also be limited (Rickwood et al., 2007). Thus, a {\textquoteleft}one size fits all{\textquoteright} approach to mental health across emergency service personnel may not be acceptable to the younger adult cohort. Of concern, younger volunteers were reported in the AtC study into the mental health of fire and emergency responders in Australia to have higher levels of self-reported psychological distress and lower levels of resilience than older volunteers (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). Early intervention is recognised as an essential approach for preventing and minimising mental health conditions (McGorry \& Mei, 2018).

The present research project was developed in response to a call to action from agencies that the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authority Council develop data-driven approaches for supporting mental health, aligned with best practice guidelines and targeted specifically at young fire and emergency service volunteers, supported by practical guidance to agencies for implementing these approaches.

Project Aims and Objectives

The overall aim of the project was to understand what can be done at an individual, local and organisation-wide level to minimise the short- and long-term impacts of potentially traumatising events and to support and promote good mental health and wellbeing for young adult (16{\textendash}25-year-old) volunteers in emergency service organisations.

Specific objectives for the project were as follows:

  1. To summarise the international and national evidence concerning the prevalence of mental health symptoms and/or psychological distress in young fire and emergency service volunteers and individual, social and organisational risk and protective factors for mental health.
  2. To create a summary of self-reported mental health and wellbeing in the context of risk and protective factors among young Australian emergency service personnel using data from the Answering the Call: National Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services and the Metropolitan Fire Service Health and Wellbeing Study.
  3. To develop an understanding of the existing programs and services utilised by young emergency services volunteers to support their mental health and wellbeing following a significant Australian disaster (the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires) and during a worldwide pandemic, as well as their perceived usefulness.
  4. To develop an understanding of the current psychosocial safety climate within the Australian emergency service sector as it relates to young fire and emergency service personnel, as well as the mental health programs and supports available to and utilised by these young adults.
  5. To develop an understanding of the young emergency services volunteers{\textquoteright} perspective of perceived facilitators and barriers to accessing relevant mental health services both within and outside the organisation and appropriate sources and type of information that are most likely to be accessed by those volunteers.
  6. To develop a Wellbeing Framework for fire and emergency service organisations to support young adult volunteers{\textquoteright} mental health and wellbeing.
  7. To develop a plain language information guide for supporting mental health and wellbeing targeted at the young adult volunteer cohort.

This report presents information and outcomes for these objectives and provides recommendations for agency-based implementation of the proposed Wellbeing Framework for Young Fire and Emergency Service Volunteers. The outputs of this project are informed by data from this cohort and are aligned with the available evidence for best practice in relevant contexts. It is hoped that the framework and its associated implementation guide will assist agencies in providing informed psychosocial support for the mental health of their young volunteers, thereby contributing to the sustainability of the volunteer service among fire and emergency service agencies. Please note that key terms used throughout the report are defined in the Glossary (Chapter 12).\ 

}, keywords = {emergency service, mental health, personnel, volunteers, young adult}, isbn = {978-0-6452058-0-0}, issn = {675}, author = {Amanda Taylor and Jane Cocks and Sharon Lawn and David Lawrence and Wavne Rikkers and Louise Roberts and Maureen Ashe and Alexander McFarlane and Rachel Roberts and Paul Delfabbro and Holly Caruso and Miranda Van Hooff} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8319, title = { Precarious places, precarious knowledges: Interrogating epistemic inclusion and integration in Disaster Risk Reduction education}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, pages = {341}, school = {The University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Natural and human-made hazards threaten societies. This is the rationale for the United Nations{\textquoteright} invitation to governments to align their policies and national strategies to the global framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Policies for DRR stipulate the inclusion of different perspectives and their integration to the global framework towards building a culture of resilience against disasters. While there have been varying levels of response to this call, less attention had been directed towards a critical reflection of the epistemological features of {\textquoteleft}knowledge{\textquoteright} that undergird DRR, including its expressions in education. In this doctoral dissertation, I engage the lenses of decolonial thinking and practice and critical pedagogy of place in examining cognitive justice; I do so through investigation of the rhetoric of epistemic inclusion and integration in the policies and practices for DRR in cyclone-exposed communities in Australia, the Philippines, and Vanuatu.

With an investigative structure patterned after the comparative case study approach, I followed the biography of DRR policies and their inflections across multiple sites, scales, and time frames. I engaged in ethnographic techniques in conjunction with layered data collection methods, including rhetorical policy analysis, interviews, and participant observation. The insights from the research showed that as the rhetoric of DRR policies endeavoured for inclusion, the texts also contracted, as {\textquoteleft}knowledge{\textquoteright} ultimately becomes delineated by {\textquoteleft}science{\textquoteright} and as fitting the DRR framework. Place-based knowledges are marginally involved in both policies and practices, and only as an accessory, even as they are ostensibly considered valuable and necessary. The concluding discussion offers recommendations towards equitable and effective approaches to disaster education - a valuable resource in DRR and disaster education governance at the local, national, and international levels.

}, keywords = {cognitive justice, comparative education, critical pedagogy of place, decoloniality, Disaster Risk Reduction education, rhetorical policy analysis}, doi = {https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26891}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/26891}, author = {Liberty Pascua} } @conference {bnh-8286, title = {Predicting merging fire behaviour in Planned Burning}, booktitle = {AFAC21}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, publisher = {AFAC}, organization = {AFAC}, address = {Online}, abstract = {

It was found that laboratory scale fire experiments do not replicate large scale fires, and therefore, extensive high temporal and spatial resolution experimental data at larger scales are required to fully understand how a given fire will merge and spread. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) may be a useful tool in obtaining these measurements. To provide operational and management personnel with a better understanding of the dynamic nature of fire line merging, UAVs were used in this study to measure fire rate of spread throughout the burns recording linear fire rates of spread and merging fire rate of spread in a range of fuel types in western Victoria. Using special software, we were able to record the rates of spread over time and determine the effect of ignition patterns on fire behaviour. These utilisation outcomes can be used to better support decision making around ignition methods during planned burning operations, as well as maximising the information available to support firefighter training and further research and development.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, fire predictions, UAVs}, url = {https://www.afac.com.au/events/proceedings/05-10-21/article/predicting-merging-fire-behaviour-in-planned-burning}, author = {Alex Filkov} } @article {bnh-8235, title = {Preparing emergency services for operations in a climate-challenged world - summary report}, number = {689}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.

In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:

  1. A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operation
  2. A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035)
  3. Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.

By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios (the scenario team), this project has helped to build the sector{\textquoteright}s understanding and capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, but secured positive support and endorsement from the scenario team who can continue to share and apply the project methods across the EMS.

A range of documents and resources are available from www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/climatescenarios. These include a workbook, and a research and methodology pack:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} workbook:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} research and methodology:\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {689}, author = {Stephen Atkinson and Geoff Brown and Russell Fisher and Zoe Fitzgerald and Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8193, title = {Principles for enhanced collaboration between land and emergency management agencies and Indigenous peoples - green paper}, number = {701}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Several trends have recently converged to create considerable interest in enhancing collaboration in land and emergency management between Government agencies and First Nations peoples in southern Australia. These trends include: a growing number of grassroots First Nations peoples cultural fire and land management projects; increased media interest in these projects and their role in cultural revitalisation; increased policy focus within land and emergency management agencies on reconciliation, collaboration and partnership with First Nations peoples; as well as a range of findings from 2019-2020 bushfire season inquiries that recommend greater collaboration [e.g., 2]. Considering these trends, it should be noted both that there are multiple examples of successful collaboration or partnership relationships between government land and emergency management agencies and First Nations peoples across Australia and that, nonetheless, such forms of collaboration or partnership are not necessarily desired by all First Nations peoples.

To date there is a relative lack of academic research on this topic, however several successful case studies of the reintroduction of cultural fire management in southern Australia have been documented [3-7]. In 2021, state and territory governments across southern Australia were in various stages of engaging with First Nations peoples, with collaborative fire management policy ranging from whole-of-government reform for First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} self-determination to piecemeal ad hoc policy with limited resource allocation (Appendix 1). A review of academic and grey literature revealed that there is a range of benefits associated with contemporary First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} cultural fire and land management in southern Australia, including cultural, environmental, economic, wildfire management, political/self-determination, social, health and wellbeing benefits (Appendix 2).\  However, there are many barriers to a more widespread application of cultural fire and land management here and in other contexts (Appendix 3). Despite widespread goodwill and optimism, the revival of cultural fire and land management is highly contingent and generally relies upon routine persuasive labor and fragile intercultural diplomacy rather than robust policies and resourcing commitments.

}, keywords = {agencies, collaboration, Emergency management, indigenous, land management, principles}, issn = {701}, author = {Michelle McKemey and Timothy Neale and Oliver Costello} } @article {bnh-8101, title = {The recalibration of our relationships with science (and nature) by natural hazard risk mitigation practitioners }, journal = { Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, abstract = {

Unrealistic expectations in society about science reducing and even eliminating the risk of natural hazards contrasts with the chaotic forces of these events, but such expectations persist nonetheless. Risk mitigation practitioners must grapple with them, including in the cycles of blame and inquiry that follow natural hazard events. We present a synthesis of such practitioner experiences from three consequential bushfire and flood risk landscapes in Australia in which science was being used to change policy and/or practice. We show how they chose to work with, counter and recalibrate unrealistic expectations of science, as well as embrace socionatural complexity and a consequential nature. The mismatch between the challenges faced by the sector and the unrealistic expectations of science, generated more stressful work conditions, less effective risk mitigation, and less effective use of research monies. In response, we argue for structural and procedural change to address legacy pathways that automatically privilege science, especially in relation to nature, with broader relevance for other environmental issues. This is not to dismiss or debase science, but to better understand its use and utility, including how facts and values relate.

}, keywords = {natural hazard risk mitigation, post-truth, Science studies, socionatural complexity, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486211019828}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/25148486211019828}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Elizabeth Clarke} } @article {bnh-8206, title = {Recovery Capitals (ReCap): navigating the complexities of disaster recovery - final project report}, number = {673}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disaster recovery is a complex process, requiring support from a range of people and organisations after an event. For the past decade, the four recovery environments (built, social, economic and natural) have been used to recognise this complexity and frame recovery efforts. However, recovery efforts often remain siloed, with inadequate attention paid to the interconnectedness between environments and the particular nuances across the social environment. There is a need for accessible, engaging and evidence-based resources to provide guidance for how to apply key recovery principles in practice.

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project aimed to promote wellbeing after disasters by examining the disaster recovery evidence base and producing a set of resources to help guide recovery efforts. It was a collaboration between the University of Melbourne, Massey University (Aotearoa New Zealand), Australian Red Cross, and other researchers, government and non-government agencies and organisations from across Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.

The ReCap project began with an examination of the evidence base for recovery risk and protective factors using a\  Community Capitals Framework (Emery, Fey and Flora, 2006). It focused on how seven forms of capital - natural, built, political, cultural, human, social, financial {\textendash} can influence wellbeing after disasters, and how they can influence each other. Through discussions between researchers and end-users, this was then adapted to develop the Recovery Capitals Framework (RCF). The RCF highlights the interconnectedness between recovery capitals, multiple dimensions regarding people, place and time and values of diversity and equity. Key messages were distilled down from the initial evidence-mapping to simplify findings and determine practically oriented considerations that we presented in a set of resources. These spanned a range of formats to cater to different users{\textquoteright} needs and included contributions from artists and graphic designers across Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand to produce visually engaging material.

The ReCap resources serve a range of purposes and are designed to guide disaster recovery efforts across different community contexts. The resources can be used to build capacity rapidly after an event, as well as in pre-event recovery planning to enhance resilience prior to disasters. They can be used in a wide range of disaster contexts, and by the wide range of people engaged in disaster recovery including policy makers, {\textquoteleft}on-the-ground{\textquoteright} staff and volunteers, including those whose core work is unrelated to disasters (e.g., teachers, healthcare workers and community organisations). The ReCap resources have also been tailored to the sociocultural contexts of the two countries, particularly with regard to representing the cultural perspectives and experiences of Indigenous peoples in appropriate ways.

The Australian edition of Guide to Disaster Recovery Capitals (ReCap Guide) was piloted from July 2020, with a high degree of engagement in the piloting process from end-users and incorporation into recovery operations throughout key organisations in the Australian sector. The Aotearoa New Zealand version built on the Australian version and had Aotearoa New Zealand specific evidence added. In\  November 2020 it was shared informally with M{\={a}}ori stakeholders to evaluate the effectiveness of the messages, artwork and tone. Feedback elicited was then combined with findings collected from the dissemination of the Australian pilot Guide to improve the document{\textquoteright}s readability. Following a more formalised consultation process with the wider stakeholder group in Aotearoa New Zealand, the current iteration is being finalised and will be disseminated appropriately.

The updated set of ReCap resources were released in May 2021. They are available via www.recoverycapitals.org.au. Dissemination is underway within Australia and will begin in Aotearoa New Zealand in mid-2021. Current and planned applications of the resources include: guiding local government initiatives; featuring on the Victorian Government{\textquoteright}s Digital Recovery Guidelines Solution platform; informing national government resources and workshops; use in training within governments and not-for-profits; informing new research projects; and being embedded into a range of Australian Red Cross activities including the development and monitoring of recovery programs, needs assessment, updating resources and presentations including to the International Federation Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. In Aotearoa New Zealand, the National Emergency Management Agency, New Zealand Red Cross and various civil defence and emergency management agencies and workers are eager to draw on the Aotearoa New Zealand guide to utilise in training and guidance contexts.

These uses to date span a range of disaster types including bushfires, floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This demonstrates the significant potential of these resources to support evidence-based, holistic and inclusive future recovery efforts throughout Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.

Project contributors are committed to continuing to develop this body of work through ongoing collaboration between researchers and end-users, including through a new Beyond Disasters Advisory Committee which will be convened by the University of Melbourne team from late 2021. This includes efforts to build disaster resilience evidence and convert it into useful tools to guide policy and practice, and to continue to focus on gaps relating to the recovery experiences of certain groups.

Another key aspect to this project was the exploration of residential mobility following disasters, which was led by the Aotearoa New Zealand team. This work built on an earlier document produced for this project on residential mobility and wellbeing. The new iteration used a case study approach to explore relevant literature on experiences of residential mobility in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia. It described the complexity of how and why people relocated, the contextual influences that drive mobility in response and recovery and community recovery and wellbeing. The residential mobility work informed the development of the ReCap resources, in particular the focus on equity and inclusion.

}, keywords = {capitals, collaborative, disaster, evidence-based, holistic, recovery}, issn = {673}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and Andrew Coghlan} } @article {bnh-7838, title = {A response to comments of Cruz et al. on: {\textquoteleft}Simulation study of grass fire using a physics-based model: striving towards numerical rigour and the effect of grass height on the rate of spread{\textquoteright}}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, abstract = {

In response to Cruzet al.(2020b) (hereafter: CSG20), we would like to clarify that we are committed to further research into the mechanisms that drive fire spread in grassland fuels, and are open to making the most of synergies that exist between various programs of research. As demonstrated by Filippiet al.(2013), Kochanskiet al.(2013), Clementset al.(2019), etc., there is much to be gained by combining detailed experimental data with rigorous computational modelling.

}, keywords = {Byram number, fuel height, grass fire, modes of fire propagation, rate of spread.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20091}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF20091}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Jason J. Sharples and William Mell and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7971, title = {The Selection and Scaling of Ground Motion Accelerograms for Use in Stable Continental Regions}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

This paper presents an application of the Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) methodology for sourcing accelerogram records for use in dynamic analyses of structures in intraplate regions of lower seismicity. The main challenges with deriving CMS for selecting and scaling accelerograms in regions of lower seismicity stem from the paucity of representative strong motion data and event recurrence data. A step-by-step illustration of the methodology is presented using the south-eastern Australia (SEA) region as an example. The study involves making use of a diversity of Ground Motion Prediction Expressions (GMPEs) including a recently developed regionally adjustable Component Attenuation Model (CAM). Three different schemes using a weighted averaging of candidate GMPEs were adopted and a comparison of predictions demonstrated only minor differences confirming the robustness of the modelling. The CMS constructed in this study have been used to develop a proposed suite of scaled accelerograms for SEA.

}, keywords = {Component attenuation model, Conditional mean spectra, earthquake, engineering, ground motion selection, stable continental region}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2021.1913456}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2021.1913456?journalCode=ueqe20}, author = {Yiwei Hu and Nelson Lam and Scott Menegon and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-7869, title = {Sexual Orientation and Prevalence of Mental Health Difficulties among Emergency Services Employees}, journal = {Journal of Affective Disorders}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, abstract = {

Background

LGBQ+ people (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Queer) are at-risk of discrimination and developing mental health issues within general populations. Limited research has assessed their mental health in emergency services occupations, a population which are known to experience poorer mental health. The current study explores the extent to which sexual orientation is associated with higher rates of mental health issues among emergency personnel.

Methods

A stratified random sample of employees from twenty-nine police (N = 8,088), ambulance (N = 3,473), and fire and rescue (N = 2,975) agencies from around Australia participated in a cross-sectional mental health survey (N = 14,536, male = 64.2\%, 42.7\% over 45 years of age, heterosexual = 92.7\%).

Results

Employees with a bisexual/pansexual orientation or those who were not sure about their sexual orientation were significantly more likely to report suicidal thoughts, suicide plans, psychological distress, and illicit drug use when compared with heterosexual employees. LGBQ+ employees reported significantly higher rates of lifetime suicide plans and attempts. Specifically, LGBQ+ fire and rescue personnel were roughly six times more likely to report lifetime suicide attempts, and approximately five times more likely to use illicit drugs weekly than their heterosexual colleagues in the fire and rescue sector. Female LGBQ+ personnel were significantly less likely to consume illicit drugs weekly and monthly than male LGBQ+ personnel.

Conclusions

Emergency services personnel are already at-risk of developing pervasive mental health difficulties. It is important that organisations foster positive working environments, particularly for LGBQ+ people who may be more marginalized within organisations.

}, keywords = {Bisexual, emergency services, Gay, Lesbian, mental health, Queer}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2021.02.032}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165032721001506}, author = {Michael Kryon and Peter McEnvoy and Dylan Gilbey and Ashleigh Lin and Catherine Mazza and Wavne Rikkers and Jennifer Bartlett and David Lawrence} } @article {bnh-8207, title = {Shear Wall and Frame Dual Systems Featuring Discontinuous Load Paths in Frame Elements in Low-to-Moderate Seismic Regions}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, abstract = {

Reinforced concrete buildings constitute a significant portion of construction in Australia. Many existing buildings in Australia and other low to moderate seismic regions have been designed with little to no consideration for ductile detailing. The majority of these buildings also possess vertical irregularities, which can exacerbate their vulnerability in an earthquake event. The seismic performance of shear wall and frame dual systems possessing discontinuities in frame elements in the form of ductility and failure mechanism has been assessed. And design recommendations in terms of response modification factors and designation of appropriate methods of analysis have been provided.

}, keywords = {Vertical irregularity; transfer beam; limited ductile buildings; response modification factor; failure hierarchy; analysis method}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2021.1964643}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2021.1964643}, author = {Alireza Mehdipanah and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam} } @article {bnh-8190, title = {Soil and fuel moisture precursors of fire activity during the 2019-20 fire season, in comparison to previous seasons - Black Summer final report}, number = {686}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Australia experienced unprecedented bushfires during the 2019-20 fire season. Millions of hectares were burned, almost 3,000 homes were destroyed, there were 26 fatalities, and communities were exposed to smoke for extended periods.\  Low soil and vegetation moisture content due to antecedent dry conditions were a key driver of fire activity.

This report extends the work in two Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects to examine the 2019-20 fire season:

The national spatial datasets produced by these projects are consistent and regularly updated, separately examining soil and vegetation moisture variability, as both quantities influence fuel availability and therefore fire behaviour.

This project explores the overlaps between these data sets, as well as comparing other available data (including the Australian Landscape Water Balance) to identify atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture characteristics that contributed to fire risk during Black Summer.

Spatially coherent historical and regularly updated soil and fuel moisture datasets are critically important to fire managers so that an accurate, quantifiable assessment of potential fire activity in the landscape can be made, and this can be benchmarked against historical conditions. This information is crucial to making accurate assessments of risk and identifying situations that fall outside of historical records. One of the valuable aspects of JASMIN is that it can also be used in a predictive way and is therefore useful in anticipating soil moisture and therefore fire risk into the future in a quantitative manner on weather (short-term) and seasonal timescales. Research work in the {\textquoteright}Land Dryness{\textquoteright} project also demonstrated the capacity of soil moisture to predict future vegetation moisture content and thus more directly anticipate fire potential.

This project examines the interaction of atmospheric parameters with soil and fuel moisture content over scales of days, weeks to months, and years. Such an integration has not been undertaken previously.\ Consideration of each of these timeframes is important when making accurate assessments of fire risk. The interaction between them is also critical, as a compounding of the individual processes at the different scales occurs and this was seen in the cumulative effects of antecedent dry years, low winter rainfall and heatwaves during the Black Summer.\ 

This project examined six fire events that were nominated for investigation by the relevant jurisdictions. The fires are:

The scope of the project included examining the following:

Key findings of the project include:\ 

The findings confirm impressions of fire practitioners regarding the extremity of conditions antecedent to the 2019-20 fire season. Importantly, the datasets used in the project present a measurable and spatially coherent approach to estimating fire risk from observed and modelled soil and fuel moisture. Operational application of the datasets and approaches used here will assist in producing accurate soil and vegetation moisture forecasts for prediction of fire risk in the future.

Some immediate benefits for fire managers of this work include:

Each of the meteorological and moisture variables investigated in this study contributed useful information to an understanding of increased fire risk at each site during the 2019-20 Australian summer. Fuel moisture content provided perhaps the most immediate indicator of present fire risk. Soil moisture content permitted an assessment of future changes in fuel moisture content. Both of these integrated changes in meteorological parameters. As such, the meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture represented by vapour pressure) contributed an understanding of why soil and fuel moisture changed in the ways that they did and offered information on how they would change in the future. Monitoring these quantities can help fire and land managers understand how and why fire risk changes across a landscape.\ 

Future work

This project was conducted over a short time period with one objective being to establish a pathway for future research and operational application.

The following opportunities for future research with likely operational benefits have been identified:

In summary, better understanding and spatial mapping of the influence of atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture will assist fire and land managers predict fire risk, which is critical for strategic and tactical planning. Many of the recommendations could be inclusions to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), and therefore of immediate benefit to fire and land managers following the introduction of the AFDRS to operational use over the next two fire seasons.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire activity, fuel, moisture, precursors, soil}, issn = {686}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Marta Yebra and Shukhrat Shokirov and Vinod Kumar and Dowdy, Andrew J and Pandora Hope and Mika Peace and Sugata Narsey and Francois Delage and Huqiang Zhang} } @article {bnh-8127, title = {The southwest Tasmania fires of summer 2018-2019 - a post event review capability study}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, pages = {64}, institution = {Zurich}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The summer of 2018-19 (December 2018 {\textendash} February 2019) was devastating for the Australian state of Tasmania. Fire services were overwhelmed by the multiple, large fires that burned over 200,000 ha across the western half of the island from the end of December through to early March. This report analyses these fires using the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance{\textquoteright}s Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology. It focuses on community and business resilience; while there have been several reviews into firefighting operations, a more systemic view of resilience is less common.

The summer 2018/19 fires officially began on 24 December 2018, in one of the hottest and driest summers on record. On 15 January 2019, 2402 dry lightning strikes hit the state, igniting 70 fires that formed into four massive fire complexes. More than 210,000 hectares burned, including 95,000 hectares in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA). Fortunately, no deaths were directly attributed to the bushfire, although an unknown number of people are believed to have died due to smoke and 114 injuries or accidents were recorded.

The event saw a significant and protracted evacuation, with the Huonville evacuation centre open for 15 days, accommodating up to 700 people daily. The lingering effects on impacted communities are still being felt. It resulted in the destruction of tourism assets, forestry resource and globally precious, protected ecosystems of the TWWHA. Smoke from the fires impacted health and the burgeoning viticulture industry in Tasmania. These impacts, along with others, have had significant flow-on effects to the already-struggling Tasmanian economy and communities.

There is much to learn from this event for Tasmania and other jurisdictions which will likely face similar events. This report outlines the risk landscape in southwest Tasmania, examining trends in climate-change charged bushfire conditions, exposure of people and assets, and their vulnerabilities. It outlines what happened during the event, with a focus on the community safety response. Direct and indirect impacts on people and economies are explored. Key insights are identified across all phases of the disaster cycle. Below we present an abridged version of the final recommendations of the study

}, keywords = {Capability, fires, post event, review, southwest, summer, Tasmania}, url = {https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/news/the-southwest-tasmania-fires-of-summer-2018-2019-a-post-event-review-capability-study.pdf}, author = {Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8095, title = {Spatial planning to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire hazards can pose significant risks at bushfire-prone urban-rural interfaces and peri-urban areas, highlighting the need to manage bushfire risk in relation to settlements{\textquoteright} planning and governance. Settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires can be purposively facilitated by the development and application of bushfire risk management knowledge. Spatial planning has the potential to support learning about and acting upon changing conditions and new bushfire information to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires. However, the translation of new bushfire knowledge into meaningful spatial planning practices has been limited and spatial planning systems often struggle to integrate bushfire risk management. Thus, this research aims to contribute to understandings of spatial planning ability to improve its practices by identifying, reframing, and putting into action new considerations about bushfire risk management to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires.

This research used an inductive qualitative research approach employing two case studies: the spatial planning systems of Chile and Victoria (Australia). Qualitative data was collected from documentation, archival records, and semi-structured interviews. The data was analysed using time-series analysis, qualitative content analysis, and cross-case synthesis techniques. The research was divided into four stages, two stages correspond to the individual case study analysis and the remaining two to cross-case synthesis and discussion.

The research concludes that the Chilean and Victorian spatial planning systems are still constrained in their promotion of settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires due to internal and external complexities that frame and limit their ability for bushfire risk management. In Chile, there have been several mostly unsuccessful attempts to integrate bushfire considerations into the spatial planning system, thus the current system only outlines spatial planning mechanisms for bushfire risk management generically and inapplicably. In Victoria, the spatial planning system has partially and progressively improved its ways for dealing with bushfires, however, the current system still considers bushfire risk management partially and sometimes ambiguously. In practice, this implies that both spatial planning systems are sometimes allowing and even promoting settlements patterns that perpetuate bushfire risks.

Based on a cross-case synthesis, the research concludes that spatial planning instruments that comprehensively address bushfires are necessary, suggesting an integrated approach that undertakes bushfire risk management at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of planning mechanisms and processes. This approach establishes the instruments{\textquoteright} role in bushfire risk management and other factors that provide directions for improving their ability to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfire. Furthermore, the research also concludes that reflexive processes are not always conducive to the development and improvement of spatial planning systems for bushfire risk management, due to the variance of willingness, understanding, and capacity issues within the system and in the wider context. Accordingly, thesis propositions about the barriers and facilitators that influence spatial planning progressing from the identification, to the reframing and implementation of change about bushfire risk management were suggested.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, disaster risk managemet, Disaster risk reduction, resilience, spatial planning, urban planning, Wildfire}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/267371}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen} } @article {bnh-7972, title = {State Emergency Service (SES): Volunteer views on experiences, wellbeing, and motivations {\textendash} Findings from the Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) Survey 2019-20}, number = {660}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

In 2017, the University of Western Australia (UWA) began a research collaboration project with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC), to investigate ways to improve the retention rates of their emergency service volunteers. Thus, researchers from UWA and Curtin University collaborated with DFES to develop and administer a Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) in the form of an online survey from September 2018 to February 2019.

The CAT survey conducted in 18-19 was intended to learn more about the SES volunteering experience from the volunteers{\textquoteright} perspectives. The goal was to obtain information on how to improve volunteer recruitment, retention, wellbeing, and diversity practices within the overall SES volunteering journey. The findings of the 18-19 survey were then used to inform the design of the follow-up CAT survey conducted in 19-20. The key purpose of the 19-20 survey was to assess the current state of volunteering within the SES in 2019 and 2020, in addition to tracking changes in the SES volunteering experience over the last 12 months. The CAT 18-19 findings served as the basis for comparison, such that the 19-20 survey was used to investigate which areas of the volunteering experience have remained the same, improved from the previous year, or have room for improvement.

Survey information

The CAT 19-20 survey was administered on the Qualtrics online survey platform, allowing the research team to collect data from multiple Western Australian regions in a short amount of time. We also offered paper and pencil versions of the survey to volunteers upon request.\ \ 

Individuals who completed the CAT 19-20 survey did so anonymously, to encourage transparency in their responses. In the CAT 18-19 survey, participants were asked to supply their email addresses to be contacted for future research. Of the 398 participants from the 18-19 survey, 307 gave their email addresses. These volunteers were invited to participate in the 19-20 survey and were given three reminders to complete it. The survey was also launched at the Western Australian Fire and Emergency Services (WAFES) conference in September 2019. The survey was later promoted through stakeholder meetings and online means (i.e., volunteer e-newsletters, the DFES online volunteer portal, and Facebook).

There were six main themes in the CAT 19-20 survey, and a total of 90 individual survey questions, plus ten demographic questions.

Compared to the 18-19 survey, the theme of {\textquoteleft}Meeting Expectations{\textquoteright} and the sub-theme {\textquoteleft}Reasons to Join{\textquoteright} were removed due to sufficient information collected from the previous year. However, several open-ended questions were included in the 19-20 survey to measure; any leadership or role changes in the unit, changes in the personal lives of volunteers that affected their ability to volunteer, and any changes in the incluvieness of their unit climates in the last 12 months.

Of the 2033 registered SES volunteers across Western Australia (WA), we received 226 complete responses for the CAT 19-20 survey, with an overall estimated response rate of 11\%. Of the 226, 136 participants had also participated in the CAT 18-19 survey. However, due to incompleteness in the CAT 18-19 survey, the final total number of matched participants for both surveys is 95 respondents. In comparison to 18-19, the survey response rate has reduced from 21\% to 11\%. One possible explanation for the lower response rate in 19-20 is due to the survey overlapping with other SES volunteer surveys being conducted by different organisations using similar timeframes.

The document will now proceed with discussing the participant demographics and findings for the CAT 19-20 survey. This will be followed by a comparison of the findings between the CAT 18-19 and 19-20 surveys. Finally, the document will conclude with key implications; highlighting group differences, key areas of strength, and key opportunities for improvement.

}, keywords = {Cultural Assessment Tool, experiences, motivations, state emergency service, survey, volunteers, wellbeing}, issn = {660}, author = {Hawa Farid and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-8302, title = {Struggling to make sense of it all: the emotional process of sensemaking following an extreme incident}, journal = {Human Relations}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, abstract = {

Organizations operating in extreme contexts regularly face dangerous incidents they can neither prevent nor easily control. In such circumstances, successful sensemaking can mean the difference between life and death. But what happens afterwards? Our study of emergency management practitioners following a major bushfire reveals a process of post-incident sensemaking during which practitioners continue to make sense of the incident after it ends, during the subsequent public inquiry, and as they try to implement the inquiry{\textquoteright}s recommendations. Different varieties of sensemaking arise during this process as practitioners rely on different forms of coping to develop and share new understandings, which not only make sense of the original incident, but also enable changes to help the organization deal with future incidents. Our study also shows that practitioners experience a range of emotions during this process, some of which inhibit sensemaking while others {\textendash} particularly different forms of anxiety {\textendash} can facilitate it. Our study makes an important empirical contribution to recent theoretical work on varieties of sensemaking and provides new insights into the complex role of emotions in sensemaking in extreme contexts.

}, keywords = {Coping, crises and disasters, emotions, inquiries, organisational change, sensemaking}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177\%2F00187267211059464}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00187267211059464}, author = {Graham Dwyer and Cynthia Hardy and Haridimos Tsoukas} } @article {bnh-8284, title = { Studying leaf area density based wind adjustment factor in Spark}, number = {713}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In some operational fire prediction models such as the McArthur model [1] or Vesta model [2], a static (constant) wind reduction factor (WRF) is used to account for subcanopy wind profile. However, the WRF is far more complicated than what can be described by a constant value. A dynamic WRF depends on wind velocity well above the forest canopy, canopy height and canopy density which may vary from location to location. In our earlier work, we developed a simpler model considering uniform vertical canopy density, known as the Harman-Finnigan model [3].\  However, Moon et al. [4] and Sutherland et al. [5] demonstrated that vertically heterogonous leaf area density (LAD) can significantly change the WRF. Massman et al [6] presented a set of equations accounting for vertically heterogonous LAD,\  plant area index (PAI) and above-canopy wind profiles towards calculating subcanopy wind adjustment factor (WAF). WAF is basically the inverse of WRF. In this study, we implement this LAD based WRF (by inversing Massman{\textquoteright}s WAF) model in CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Spark platform within its Vesta fire propagation model [2].

This research was initially tested using a synthetic dataset to apply canopy parameters that represent Australian vegetation properties. The preliminary Spark simulation results show some variation in fire rate of spread based on various vegetation types. Further, we assess the implementation using three case studies based on three fire incidents, Mount Cooke Fire 2003 of Western Australia, Kilmore Fire 2009 of Victoria, and Lithgow Fire (State Mine) 2013 of New South Wales. Taking PAI as half of leaf area index (LAI), testing four different LAD configurations, it is found that for Tall Open Eucalyptus LAD, best results are obtained in relation to actual final fire perimeters

}, keywords = {adjustment, area density, factor, leaf, spark, wind}, issn = {713}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7793, title = {Supplementing emergency warning messages to encourage readiness to act: the effect of colours and icons}, number = {640}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Current Australian emergency warning messages that have been refined to match evidence-based practice strongly encourage community members{\textquoteright} readiness to act on emergency instructions (Greer, Dootson, Miller \& Tippett, 2019). Given the written elements of warning messages are optimised to encourage readiness to act, this research examines the effect of adding icons and/or colours to official warnings. In this research, we draw on a socio- psychological model of precautionary adaption (Grothmann \& Reusswig, 2006) underpinned by Protective Motivation Theory (PMT; Rogers, 1975, 1983; Rogers \& Prentice-Dunn, 1997) to investigate whether emergency warning messages can be further optimised by adding colours and/or icons to encourage even higher levels of readiness to act on emergency instructions.

In order to achieve the aims of this research, an online survey was conducted in which participants were exposed to one of 16 mock emergency warnings about either a bushfire or a riverine flood and were then asked a series of questions relating to their demographic characteristics, message comprehension and effectiveness, threat appraisal, coping appraisal, protection motivation and maladaptive coping behaviour. Mock emergency warnings were developed using existing end-user emergency warnings to improve realism and maximise the usefulness of the findings, as well as building on previous QUT-conducted BNHCRC research (see Greer et al., 2019). A total of 2,482 Australians living across all states and territories were recruited to participate in the research. Participants were recruited by the Market Research firm Dynata. Approximately 150 participants responded to each of the 16 stimuli.

Overall, the research results show that adding colours and/or icons to the Evacuate Now (Bushfire) message creates improvements, albeit small ones, in message comprehension, effectiveness, perceived probability and perceived self-efficacy. The other three messages showed no improvement (or loss) in message comprehension, effectiveness, threat appraisal, or coping appraisal as a result of adding colours and/or icons.

}, keywords = {colours, Emergency, icons, messages, readiness, warning}, issn = {640}, author = {Dominique Greer and Paula Dootson and Sophie Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8089, title = {Taking fire: the historical and contemporary politics of Indigenous burning in Australia and the western United Statest}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Large bushfires in recent years around the world have sparked debate and interest in fire management; a world warming through industrial combustion is a world turning to Indigenous fire practices for solutions. Yet even as Indigenous Australians increasingly assert pyro-identities, non-Indigenous Australians have struggled to understand Indigenous burning practices and the nature of antipodean fire. This thesis examines the historical and contemporary politics of fire and how they relate to\ changing understandings of Indigenous burning in Australia and the United States in the 20th and 21st centuries. It examines public and institutional debates after large bushfires, discussions about management of public lands and shifting representations of Indigenous burning through analysis of royal commission transcripts, newspaper articles and other public discourse, policy submissions, institutional archives and academic published material. The thesis explores the relationship of environmentalism to fire and Indigenous burning, the contradictions of {\textquoteright}wilderness{\textquoteright} and the politics of race and identity. It charts the development of competing understandings of fire and Indigenous burning in academic disciplines as well as the entanglement of Indigenous burning with the politics of land management and institutional rivalries. Through a comparison of the mutual entanglements and divergences of Australian and American fire management and conceptualisations of Indigenous burning, the thesis demonstrates the historical and transnational context of Australian fire. It argues for localised understandings of fire and fire management, perspectives that are attentive to cultural and ecological specificities. Perceptions of Indigenous burning have inspired policy-making and they have also been appropriated for legitimation, with profound consequences for cultural politics and ecological communities. Finally, the thesis charts how Indigenous burning has been transformed in the imagination and discourses of non-Indigenous Australia: from academic curiosity to political incendiary - and, increasingly, to a lived reality.

}, keywords = {Australia, burning, contemporary, historical, indigenous, politics, US}, doi = {10.25911/MA4M-SN80}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/222852}, author = {Daniel May} } @article {bnh-8131, title = {Towards protective action: effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {692}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The release of the National Review of Warnings and Information (Emergency Management Victoria, 2014) triggered the need for a range of evidence-based practice about constructing better natural hazard emergency warning messages. This report showcases a three-year program of end-user driven interdisciplinary research that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning communication during the response phase of natural hazard emergencies. The research examines existing and modified communication to community members who may be affected by natural hazards. The work outlined in this report builds on our previous CRC project on effective communication in natural hazards.

The first CRC project (2014-2017) focused on the pre-decisional processes of community members and business owners, particularly their exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of warning messages in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. The current project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process{\textemdash}environmental cues, social cues, information sources, channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver characteristics{\textemdash}inform protective action during the response phases of natural hazards.

There are two core research aims:

These aims have been achieved through three tailored research packages:

This project employs a multi-method, multi-hazard research design to:

Our research findings have been shared with end-users through the AFAC Warnings Group, invited presentations and consultancies, private meetings, conferences, and workshops, and translated into practice via audits, public information, visual content (e.g., infographics), emergency alert templates, national doctrine, and to support the Australian Warnings System.

}, keywords = {action, communication, Natural hazards, protective, risk, warning}, issn = {692}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Paula Dootson and Lisa Bradley and Sophie Miller and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-8232, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector}, number = {708}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

While this Guide references the breadth of ways in which scenarios can be applied in practice, the core purpose of this Guide is to outline one practical way for EMS organisations to start using these scenarios. The Guide outlines a simple, yet powerful way (wind tunnelling) for organisations to test and improve decision making and planning in an uncertain world where the volatility, frequency and magnitude of climate events will challenge the sector like never before. Experimenting with this {\textquotedblleft}wind tunnelling{\textquotedblright} approach and becoming familiar with its use in the context of one{\textquoteright}s own organisation, will provide leaders and decision-makers with the strategic insights required to strengthen and improve their strategy work and support their organisations to more effectively adapt to and influence the future.

This Guide is designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, which includes:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found here.

The Guide draws on the global experience of Reos Partners in developing and applying scenarios in many different contexts, the climate change research conducted for the project by RMIT University, the wisdom and hands-on experience of the sector-wide scenario team and a little bit of collective imagination.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {708}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8233, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - emergency management sector case studies as worked examples}, number = {710}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

The purpose of Emergency management sector case studies as worked examples is to provide a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunneling process using four case examples from the perspective of different Emergency Service agency types:

  1. Urban firefighting services\  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}urban operations{\textquotedblright}
  2. Rural firefighting services\  \  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}rural operation{\textquotedblright}
  3. Land management agencies\  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}land management{\textquotedblright}
  4. State emergency services\  \  \  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}emergency services{\textquotedblright}

Abridged versions of four strategies or plans have been selected as {\textquoteleft}cases{\textquoteright} to illustrate the application of the wind-tunnelling process described in\ Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector.

The cases are:

Case 1 {\textendash} Urban Operations: State Emergency Response Plan Extreme Heat Sub-Plan (2017)

Case 2 {\textendash} Rural Operations: Barwon South West Bushfire Management Strategy (2020)

Case 3 {\textendash} Land Management: City of Ipswich Floodplain Management Strategy (2019)

Case 4 {\textendash} Emergency Services: NZ Risk Reduction Strategy (2019-29)

The Case Studies draw on the experience of the sector-wide scenario team in developing the scenarios and have been designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, including:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found\ here.

Note that wind-tunnelling is a rigorous process requiring significant time and resources, and that these Case Studies are a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunnelling process developed for illustrative purposes only in order to show ways in which the worked examples may be tested and improved.

Note also that not every step in each worked example of the case studies has been fully completed. Parts have been deliberately left blank with an invitation for the reader to engage and complete the exercise. Again, what{\textquoteright}s provided is by way of example is for illustrative purposes only.

Finally, none of the results of wind-tunnelling provided here should be seen as a recommendation for any improvement to any of the strategies selected as EMS Case Studies.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {710}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8081, title = {Understanding post-fire fuel dynamics using burnt permanent forest plots}, number = {674}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel load, structure and hazard within the first two years after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by a range of fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.

Current state of knowledge

The flammability of tall wet eucalypt forests is poorly understood. A globally unique forest type, these forests consist of a highly-flammable Eucalyptus overstorey and a moist, non-flammable understorey consisting of rainforest and broadleadf trees and shrubs. As a result, these forests are rarely available to burn, and almost no data exists on flammability and fire behaviour. While current fire behaviour models assume that fuel load and hence flammability increase asymptotically as a function of time since previous fire,\ there is much debate over whether this is the true trajectory of flammability in these forests. Understanding how fire severity is influenced by fuels and time since fire is a critical question in these forests.

As the rate of spread and intensity of a fire is a function of fuels, fire weather and topography, and as only the latter can be physically manipulated, the effect of fuel load and structure on fire behaviour, and the subsequent reduction in fuels, is extremely important to understand.\  Planned burning, the intentional use of low-severity fire, is the most commonly employed fuel reduction technique in Australia.\  The underlying concept is that burning off fuel loads across a landscape leads to an increased encounter rate with low fuel load areas.7 While reducing fuel ages has been shown to reduce both the extent and incidence of unplanned fires, the effect of low severity fires on actual fuel loads has not been explicitly quantified, especially in wet forests where planned burning is less commonly practiced than in dry forest.\  Further, low-severity fires have historically been overlooked in wet forests, as high-severity fires are though to be the important disturbance type due to the serotinous nature of many eucalypts. But recent research indicates that low-severity fires could play a more important role that previously realised.

Related projects

This study is building a large dataset of pre- and post-fire permanent plot measurements to complement existing studies on the fire regime of wet eucalypt forests. As mentioned above it utilised infrastructure set up as part of the TERN forests Ausplots network, and the Warra Chronosequence plots. Such a dataset will allow for analyses such as\  the validation of fire behaviour models, analysis of the resilience wet forests to wildfire, and help understand how fire severity affects subsequent fire hazard. Data from this study has already added a valuable validation section to a study providing the first-ever explicit description of the fire regime of mature wet Eucalyptus forests across Australia.26\ 

This project has also contributed a valuable high-resolution field-based validation for the BNHCRC project Using pre and post fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian Bushfires. This project will create, among other things, a high-resolution fire-severity map of the Riveaux Road Fire. With these data, we will be able to perform geospatial analyses to untangle the drivers of fire severity during this bushfire. Importantly the area burned in the fire includes the WARRA silvicultural experiment, in which a number of silvicultural treatments were trialled in a small area. This will allow an investigation into the effects of different silvicultural practices on flammability and fire severity in tall wet Eucalyptus forests.

Research questions

This study plans to focus on three major research questions:

}, keywords = {burnt, dynamics, forest, fuel, permanent, plots, post-fire}, issn = {674}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8165, title = {Using pre- and post-fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires}, number = {698}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

In January 2019, over 64,000 ha of bushland burned in the Riveaux Road fire in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s southern forests. Most of area burned occurred in tall wet eucalypt forest. These forests are considered to be highly flammable in dry conditions, but fires are infrequent due to the generally cool, wet climate in which they grow. As a result, limited data exists on the behaviour and effects of wildfire in these forests. Prior to these fires, extensive areas of these southern forests have been studied in-depth. In 2014, a large area of the forests that burned were mapped with aerial LiDAR, a remote-sensing technology that can characterise three-dimensional forest structure. Further, in 2016, detailed field-based measurements of fuel load, structure, and hazard were taken at 12 permanent plots which subsequently burned in 2019. Hence, the 2019 fires in Tasmania represent a globally-rare opportunity to characterise the severity of a large wildfire using pre-fire and post-fire data. In October 2019, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) in Tasmania, along with five other BNHCRC end-users and the University of Tasmania, launched a project to use remote-sensing and field-based data to create a detailed case study of the 2019 Riveaux Rd. Fire, and to untangle the drivers of fire severity in tall wet eucalypt forests.\  To do this we (i) remeasured plots to assess tree mortality and changes in fuel loads post fire; (ii) acquired LiDAR data from a transect across a burned buttongrass-forest boundary on the Weld River enabling comparison with pre-fire LiDAR data; (iii) established baseline postfire LiDAR buttongrass-forest boundary transect on the Huon River at Blakes Opening.\  Here we describe the data sets and report some preliminary analyses.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire severity, Lidar, post-fire, pre-fire, Tasmania}, issn = {698}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Arko Lucieer and Scott Foyster and Anna Matala and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8301, title = {Walking on two legs: a pathway of Indigenous restoration and reconciliation in fire-adapted landscapes}, journal = {Restoration Ecology}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, abstract = {

Worldwide, Indigenous peoples are leading the revitalization of their/our cultures through the restoration of ecosystems in which they are embedded, including in response to increasing {\textquotedblleft}megafires.{\textquotedblright} Concurrently, growing Indigenous-led movements are calling for governments to implement Indigenous rights, titles and treaties, and many settler-colonial governments are committing to reconciliation with Indigenous peoples and to implementing the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Yet, despite growing recognition that just and effective conservation is only possible through partnerships with, or led by, Indigenous peoples, decolonizing approaches to restoration have received insufficient attention. However, reconciliation will be incomplete without Indigenous-led restoration of Indigenous lands, knowledges, and cultures. In this article, we introduce the concept of {\textquotedblleft}walking on two legs{\textquotedblright} to guide restoration scientists and practitioners in advancing the interconnected processes of Indigenous-led restoration and reconciliation in Indigenous territories. As an action-oriented framework articulated by Secw{\'e}pemc Elder Ronald E. Ignace, {\textquotedblleft}walking on two legs{\textquotedblright} seeks to bring Indigenous knowledges into balance with western scientific knowledge in service of upholding an Indigenous stewardship ethic that is embedded in Indigenous ways of relating to land and embodies principles of respect, reciprocity, and responsibility. Grounding this discussion in the context of fire-adapted ecosystems of western Canada and unceded and traditional Secw{\'e}pemc territory, Secwepemc{\'u}l̓ecw, we argue that walking on two legs, along with principles of reconciliation, offers a pathway to uphold respectful relationships with Indigenous peoples, knowledges, and territories through Indigenous-led restoration.

}, keywords = {ecocultural restoration, Indigenous knowledge, Indigenous restoration, Indigenousfire stewardship, reconcilia-tion, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13566}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/rec.13566}, author = {Sarah Dickson-Hoyle and Ronald Ignace and Marianne Ignace and Shannon Hagerman and Lori Daniels and Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz} } @article {bnh-8191, title = {Wind speed Reduction Factors (WRFs): utilities for WRF assessment and communication - Black Summer final report}, number = {688}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project commenced in March 2021 as a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Black Summer funded initiative between Queensland Fire and Emergency Services and the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Queensland. The purpose of the project was to undertake an evaluation of WRFs used in Australia (including during Black Summer) to quantify the reduction of open space wind speed by Australian fuel types.

Wind is a key driver of fire behaviour and can be highly variable and difficult to predict, particularly within the lowest 1-2km of the atmosphere where it interacts in complex ways with topography and vegetation. Operational fire spread modelling quantifies the impact of vegetation or fuel type on wind speed using Wind speed Reduction Factors (WRFs) or Wind Adjustment Factors (WAFs). Specifically, these factors quantify the impact of vegetation on reducing the speed of the open space prevailing wind. WRF is typically the ratio of 10m open wind speed to 2m wind speed, whereas WAF is the ratio of {\textquoteleft}midflame{\textquoteright} wind speed to 20 ft open wind speed.

To date, single or static WRFs have been assigned to 62 Queensland Broad Vegetation Groups (BVGs) for use within the operational fire simulation application PHOENIX Rapidfire. These WRFs have been derived via approximation. Specifically, the 10m open wind speed has been approximated by the closest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Automatic Weather Station (AWS) to the field site, and the 2m near-surface wind speed has been approximated via the use of a handheld anemometer raised to eye-level at a suitable location within the field site.

The key research aims were to:

The review found that the use of approximated static WRFs has caused minor to significant error accumulation in the fire spread model outputs produced by fire simulation applications, including PHOENIX Rapidfire.

To reduce error in fire spread modelling, the review concluded that the development of dynamic WRF modelling capabilities should be a priority. These dynamic WRFs should respond to key wind, fuel, fire and topography parameters that change over time and space.

However, a dynamic WRF model should not require such high levels of computation so as to delay real-time fire spread modelling outputs. At its simplest, a dynamic WRF model is a discrete, empirically derived WRF profile, illustrating the change in WRF at specific heights measured within a fuel type in the field. A more advanced dynamic WRF model might be a mathematical model for which wind, fuel, fire and topography parameters act as inputs and a mathematically idealised continuous WRF profile is the output. This model should be validated by empirical data. Overall, each fuel type should have its own WRF profile. The end goal should be to replace all static WRFs with dynamic WRF profiles in fire spread models.

A WRF test site was established in the priority fuel type {\textquoteleft}moist to dry eucalypt woodland on coastal lowlands and ranges{\textquoteright} at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) Samford Ecological Research Facility (SERF), located on the outskirts of Samford Valley in Southeast Queensland. Installed at the site is a 15m instrumented tower using 3D sonic anemometers to record mean 3D wind speed, vertical wind direction and sonic air temperature. A discrete WRF profile was derived by taking the ratio of the average 10m open wind speed measured by the nearest BOM AWS in Brisbane and the average wind speed measured at heights of 2.5m, 4.5m, 10.5m and 15.5m. This WRF profile is preliminary as it is based on 23 hours of data collected outside the southeast Queensland fire season (August {\textendash} December).

Preliminary investigations of relationships between variables related to WRF were also conducted. The overall wind profile was compared to the Plant Area Density (PAD) profile of the vegetation obtained via terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A weak to moderate relationship was identified (R2 = 0.22) between mean wind speed and PAD, which may be due to the calm conditions experienced over the short length of the data collection period. Additionally, the day-time and night-time subcanopy temperature profiles were compared. The day-time profile was found to be slightly more constant with height, which may indicate that the subcanopy environment is more mixed and turbulent throughout the day. This result was supported by increased measurements of vertical mixing throughout the day. Nevertheless, data collection over a longer period under more varied conditions is recommended to investigate these relationships further.

The WRF test site at the QUT SERF has provided a preliminary insight into the relationships between vegetation and meteorology in the Australian context, which is essential for the development of empirically based dynamic WRF profiles for all fuel types. The methodology used is transferable and will be applied to other sites containing other priority fuel types. Anemometer measurements and LiDAR scans may then be used as key datasets for underpinning and validating the development of advanced dynamic WRF modelling capabilities in the next generation of fire spread models. Until this capability is developed, the new quick-reference WRF profile assessment resource developed by this project will enable FBANs near the fire ground to quickly identify the WRF values most relevant to the ensuing fire spread. These values may then be communicated to fire spread modellers.

}, keywords = {assessment, black summer, communication, factors, reduction, speed, wind}, issn = {688}, author = {Hamish McGowan and Katherine Rosenthal and Raymond Bott and John Myles} } @article {bnh-7899, title = {Young people and the emergency services: working towards inclusive partnerships}, number = {653}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability{\textquoteright} project identified the need for Emergency Management Organisations (EMOs) to develop a greater understanding of the communities they serve, and to look for ways to engage more effectively with the diverse nature of Australian communities.

The community aspect of the project introduced a new perspective for EMOs and the development of diversity and inclusion (D\&I) strategies by introducing the experiences of communities themselves. The research focused on two key groups: a refugee community in regional Victoria; and young people aged 18{\textendash}25 years old. Findings from the young people{\textquoteright}s group informed the development of this resource.1

Young people, 18{\textendash}25 year olds, may not identify themselves as a diverse community. We define diversity as the way we differ and this age group has a low level of community participation with the emergency services.

Young people represent a unique challenge for EMOs, with low levels of community engagement. Their life stage of emerging adulthood and increasing independence, as well as their focus on study and/or work, present barriers to their community engagement. The changing nature of volunteering presents new opportunities for EMOs to engage with this age group and to develop inclusive partnerships.

The resource begins with an overview of what is important to young people, their areas of interest, and motivation to engage in their community. Communicating effectively and through their popular social media mediums is vital, and this resource provides an overview of how to engage with this age group online. The resource also provides strategies of how to find ways to work together, and the skills, attributes and capabilities young people bring to your organisation.

The resource has a practical focus, and provides links to organisations who have developed effective strategies to engage young people. Links to existing resources with checklists and more information about how to work with young people in your organisation are also provided. Young people have a lot to offer EMOs, but they are not necessarily aware of their own potential. Developing an understanding of young people{\textquoteright}s interests and motivation is important if you are to find ways to develop inclusive partnerships that are mutually beneficial.

{\textquoteleft}It{\textquoteright}s just how you make these links where people can see you have all of these capabilities that we would really love to have and this would be a great resource to have and maybe inspiring or making young people aspire to be part of these emergency services. Because for a lot of people, I{\textquoteright}m generalising, I think people think they{\textquoteright}d love to do it, but don{\textquoteright}t think they{\textquoteright}re capable. I have so much respect for people who are in the police or fire brigade and things, but I don{\textquoteright}t know if I could.{\textquoteright} {\textemdash} Young female

}, keywords = {emergency services, inclusive, partnerships, young people}, issn = {653}, author = {McDonald, F} } @article {bnh-6814, title = {Aboriginal Peoples and the response to the 2019-2020 bushfires}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Aboriginal people were among those most affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires in south-eastern Australia. Yet aside from renewed public interest in cultural burning practices, Aboriginal people have received little attention in the post-bushfire response. In this paper, we describe population geography of Aboriginal peoples affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfire season in New South Wales and Victoria, and the geography of Aboriginal legal rights and interests in land across these states. We find that over 84 000 Indigenous people, or one-quarter of the Indigenous population of NSW and Victoria, live in the bushfire-affected area. While Indigenous people comprise nearly 5.4\% of the 1.55 million people living in fire-affected areas, they are only 2.3\% of the total population of NSW and Victoria. Because Indigenous people in the bushfire-affected area have younger population profiles, more than one-tenth of children in the bushfire-affected area are Indigenous, raising the diverse effects of bushfires on infants and children in particular. Aboriginal people also have a variety of distinct and spatially extensive legal rights and interests in land as First Peoples, including across much of the fire-affected area. Presenting a series of quotations from published accounts, we demonstrate that the Aboriginal experience of the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires have been different from those of non-Indigenous Australians.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal peoples, bushfires, Emergency management, Natural hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.25911/ 5e7882623186c}, url = {https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires}, author = {Bhiamie Williamson and Francis Markham and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-6827, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - annual report 2018-19}, number = {563}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to the broader Australian government. The government run Sentinel Hostpots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public. This project will source for the Sentinel Hotspots application. Our vision is to create a world leading approach to monitor fire activity. To achieve this, we propose the use of remote sensing technologies for active fire detection and monitoring.

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader\ Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now, and into the future.

The aim this project is to next generation, remote sensing satellite information to enhance Australia{\textquoteright}s operational capabilities and information systems for bushfire monitoring across a range of spatial scales and landscapes. Ultimately the outcomes of this research will enable measures of active fires in terms of areal extent and magnitude, which in turn will have the potential to inform decisions about bushfire response, fuel hazard management and ecosystem sensitivity to fire; during fire events and post-fire rehabilitation efforts.

The following sections describe the background, research approaches, key milestons, a utilisation study and outputs of our Himawari-8 active fire detection research.

}, keywords = {Active fire detection, HIMAWARI-8, Satellite}, issn = {563}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-7505, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {628}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to the broader Australian government. The government run Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public.\  This project will assist the Australian government to develop and validate Himawari-8 as a data source for the Sentinel Hotspots application.\  Our vision is to create a world leading approach to monitor fire activity.\  To achieve this, we propose the use of remote sensing technologies for active fire detection and monitoring.

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now, and into the future.

The aim this project is to next generation, remote sensing satellite information to enhance Australia{\textquoteright}s operational capabilities and information systems for bushfire monitoring across a range of spatial scales and landscapes. Ultimately the outcomes of this research will enable measures of active fires in terms of areal extent and magnitude, which in turn will have the potential to inform decisions about bushfire response, fuel hazard management and ecosystem sensitivity to fire during fire events and post-fire rehabilitation efforts.

The following sections describe the background, research approaches, key milestones, utilisation study and outputs of our Himawari-8 active fire detection research.

}, keywords = {fire detection, HIMAWARI-8, Satellite}, issn = {628}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-7137, title = {An Adaptive Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Use in Low-to-Moderate Seismicity Regions}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {1-23}, abstract = {

In regions of low-to-moderate seismicity where representative strong motion data is lacking, the modelling of seismic hazard relies on the use of seismological models. This paper presents a set of expressions that can be used as ground motion prediction equations that have been transformed from seismological models which resolve the generation of seismic waves into several components. The feature of this presented set of expressions is that it can be adapted to represent earthquake ground motion behaviour that is defined by a diversity of seismological models. The motivation behind the development of the presented adaptive predictive relationship which is known as the\ Component Attenuation Model\ (CAM) was to fast track, and make transparent, the transformation from seismological models to predictions of response spectral values for engineering applications. Thus,\ CAM\ can be used to waive away the need of executing any software for undertaking stochastic simulations nor time-history analyses for calculation of the response spectral ordinates. An important and original, the feature of\ CAM\ is incorporating the shear wave velocity profile of the bedrock and the associated upper-crustal modification into the model. This article presenting\ CAM\ is essentially a contribution to engineering as opposed to seismology. The potential benefits derived from the fast-tracking can be considerable given that the transformation is seldom a one-off process and would need to be repeated for any given targeted area, in view of uncertainties surrounding seismological conditions of the earth crust around the globe.

}, keywords = {attenuation parameter, Component attenuation model, ground motion prediction equations, upper-crustal modification}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2020.1784810}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2020.1784810}, author = {Yuxiang Tang and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-6850, title = {Adaptive prescribed burning in Australia for the early 21st Century {\textendash} context, status, challenges}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, pages = {305-313}, abstract = {

Despite evident advances in knowledge and understanding concerning the application of prescribed burning for delivering benefits in wildfire control and a variety of sociocultural, economic and environmental outcomes, the practical application of prescribed burning in Australia is increasingly administratively and logistically complex, often controversial and climatically challenging. This series of papers does not address the merits or otherwise of prescribed burning {\textendash} we accept the lessons from antiquity and recent history that the use of prescribed fire in contemporary Australia is essential for reducing, although not always being able to deliver on, wildfire risks and meeting a variety of societal and environmental needs. This special issue focuses on several fundamental adaptive management and monitoring questions: are we setting appropriate management targets? Can these targets and associated indicators be readily measured? Can we realistically deliver on those targets? And if so, what are the costs and/or trade-offs involved? The 10 solicited papers included here provide a sample illustration of the diversity of approaches currently being undertaken in different Australian regions to address complex adaptive management and monitoring challenges.

}, keywords = {adaptive management, adaptive monitoring, fire management, fire regimes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20027}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF20027}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Lachlan W. McCaw and Adam J. Leavesley} } @article {bnh-6874, title = {Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Spotting during wildfires can significantly influence the way wildfires spread and reduce the chances of successful containment by fire crews. However, there is little published empirical evidence of the phenomenon. In this study, we have analysed spotting patterns observed from 251 wildfires from a database of over 8000 aerial line scan images capturing active wildfire across mainland southeast Australia between 2002 and 2018. The images were used to measure spot fire numbers, number of {\textquotedblleft}long-distance{\textquotedblright} spot fires (\> 500 m), and maximum spotting distance. We describe three types of spotting distance distributions, compare patterns among different regions of southeast Australia, and associate these with broad measures of rainfall, elevation, and fuel type. We found a relatively high correlation between spotting distance and numbers; however, there were also several cases of wildfires with low spot fire numbers producing very long-distance spot fires. Most long-distance spotting was associated with a {\textquotedblleft}multi-modal{\textquotedblright} distribution type, where high numbers of spot fires ignite close to the source fire and isolated or small clumps of spot fires ignite at longer distances. The multi-modal distribution suggests that current models of spotting distance, which typically follow an exponential-shaped distribution, could underestimate long-distance spotting. We also found considerable regional variation in spotting phenomena that may be associated with significant variation in rainfall, topographic ruggedness, and fuel descriptors. East Victoria was the most spot-fire-prone of the regions, particularly in terms of long-distance spotting.

}, keywords = {spot fire; spotting distance; spotting distribution; wildfire behaviour}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3020010}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/2/10}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @inbook {bnh-8209, title = {Animal Welfare and Disasters}, booktitle = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, organization = {Oxford University Press}, chapter = {Animal Welfare and Disasters}, abstract = {

Public policy around animal welfare in disaster management is a new field, both in practice and in research. Early studies in the 1990s paved the way for a wider and more internationally focused approach to the challenge of protecting both people and animals during disasters, with some countries introducing specific legislative instruments to afford animals better protection in such events. Such reforms are largely motivated by the recognition of the bond humans often have with animals, and the likelihood that they will behave in a way that is protective of them, even at the risk of compromising human safety. However, the issues around animal disaster management and the associated policy are complex and are best categorized as a wicked problem.

Production animals are generally highly vulnerable to disaster due to high stock densities and lack of hazard mitigation. However, it is the lack of human{\textendash}animal bond that leaves these animals largely without disaster-risk-reduction advocacy. In contrast, companion animals that enjoy the paternalistic protection of their guardians benefit from greater rights, and their advocates have a stronger voice to effect change in public policy through democratic processes. This article looks at the historical development of policy and legal reform of animal disaster management in a global context and draws upon numerous studies to provide evidence-based arguments as to why animals matter in disasters and why there are significant public safety and political benefits in protecting them.

}, keywords = {animal, crisis analysis, disaster, Emergency, evacuation planning, hoarding, lessons, pet, search and rescue}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1528}, url = {https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1528}, author = {Glassey, Steve} } @article {bnh-7138, title = {The Australian Disaster Resilience Index: a summary}, number = {588.2020}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones, floods, storms, heatwaves, earthquakes and tsunamis, have always occurred and will continue to occur in Australia. These natural hazards frequently intersect with human societies to create natural hazard emergencies that, in turn, cause disasters.

The effects of natural hazards on Australian communities are influenced by a unique combination of social, economic, natural environment, built environment, governance and geographical factors.

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from natural hazards, with the total economic cost of natural hazards in Australia averaging $18.2 billion per year between 2006 and 2016 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017). This is expected to almost double by 2030 and to average $33 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). The social impacts of disasters are also substantial. Costs associated with social impacts may persist over a person{\textquoteright}s lifetime and can be greater than the costs of tangible damages (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016).

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of some natural hazard types in Australia (BOM \& CSIRO, 2018). An increasing population, demographic change, widening socio-economic disparity, expensive infrastructure and the location of\  communities in areas of high natural hazard risk also contributes to the potential for increasing losses from natural hazards.

There are two prominent schools of thought about the influence of natural hazards in human societies:

This resilience perspective has been adopted in the Australian Disaster Resilience Index, with the aim of better understanding and assessing the disaster resilience of Australian communities nationwide.

As such, disaster resilience can be understood as a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazards. Resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events.

}, keywords = {communities, Disaster risk reduction, emergencies, Emergency, Natural hazards, people, resilience, risk, risk reduction}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-6-4}, issn = {588.2020}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7099, title = {The Australian Disaster Resilience Index: Volume I {\textendash} State of Disaster Resilience Report}, number = {492}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from disasters. Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events. Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events. This assessment of disaster resilience estimates the status of these capacities and shows how they are spatially distributed across Australia.

Composite indices are frequently used to summarise and report complex relational measurements about a particular issue. The Australian Disaster Resilience Index measures disaster resilience as a set of coping and adaptive capacities. Coping capacity is the means by which available resources and abilities can be used to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation. Eight themes of disaster resilience encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access) or to adapt, learn and solve problems (social and community engagement, governance and leadership). Across the eight themes, 77 indicators were used to compute the Australian Disaster Resilience Index in 2,084 areas of Australia, corresponding to the Statistical Area Level 2 divisions of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The Index was then used to undertake the first nationally standardised assessment of the state of disaster resilience in Australia. Disaster resilience is reported at three levels: an overall disaster resilience index, coping and adaptive capacity sub-indexes and themes of disaster resilience that encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards and to adapt, learn and solve problems (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access, social and community engagement, governance and leadership).

Volume I (this volume) assesses the state of disaster resilience in Australia, using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index. Volume I gives a brief overview of the design\ and computation of the index, then assesses the state of disaster resilience in\ Australia at different levels: overall disaster resilience, coping and adaptive\ capacity, and the eight themes of disaster resilience. Volume I also presents a\ typology of disaster resilience that groups areas across Australia that have similar disaster resilience profiles.

Readers interested in the results of the assessment of disaster resilience in\ Australia should focus on Volume I.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, disaster resilience, state of disaster resilience}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-1-9}, issn = {492}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6977, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events: Recommendations relating to urban planning for natural hazard mitigation (2009-2017)}, number = {571}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on an assessment of major Australian post disaster and emergency event inquiries and reviews from the past 10 years in terms of recommendations relating to the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation.

Findings from this review must be understood in the context of inquiries {\textendash}examinations of events seeking mainly to identify problems and areas for improvement.\  Accordingly, the recommendations do not typically highlight successes or existing strengths, even while these may be well understood and recognised by those involved. Additionally, this report has avoided making detailed assessments of the numbers of various recommendation types, given the uneven distribution of a relatively low number of events. Nonetheless, the emphases upon certain areas and omission of others suggest areas for future improvement.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {571}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7466, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: a system for assessing the resilience of Australian communities to natural hazards - final project report}, number = {621}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events. Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events. This project developed the Australian Disaster Resilience Index to assess, for the first time, the capacity for disaster resilience in communities across Australia.

Disaster resilience in Australia

The assessment of disaster resilience using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index shows that communities in Australia do not all have the same capacity for disaster resilience. About 52\% of the population live in areas with moderate capacity for disaster resilience, about 32\% in areas with high capacity for disaster resilience and about 16\% in areas with low capacity for disaster resilience. Analysis of the distribution of disaster resilience in Australia revealed:

Australian communities are also affected by various factors which enhance or constrain their capacity for disaster resilience. The particular combination of factors that influence capacity for disaster resilience differs from place to place. This generates a heterogeneous and complex picture of the factors associated with disaster resilience in Australia. Analysis of the distribution of the eight theme sub-indexes revealed:

}, keywords = {adri, assessing, communities, Natural hazards, resilience, system}, issn = {621}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac} } @article {bnh-7101, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 1: Design of the Index}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 1.1 Presents the conceptual basis of the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 1.2 Describes the structure of the index, including its hierarchical structure, and the themes of disaster resilience.

Section 1.3 Outlines the spatial resolution and areas of Australia included in the index.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7102, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 2: Indicators}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 2.1 Describes the method used to identify and select indicators for the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 2.2 Lists the indicators used in the index themes, including the source of each indicator and how it was calculated.

Section 2.3 Justifies the relationships between indicators and disaster resilience for each theme in the index, using a literature review.

Section 2.4 Describes the method used to disaggregate some of the indicators to an SA2 resolution.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, indicators}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7103, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 3: Computation of the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 3.1 Reviews the development and use of composite indexes and methods for computing composite indexes.

Section 3.2 Describes the rationale for, and the statistical computation of, the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 3.3 Describes the methods used to compute the typology of groups of SA2s with similar disaster resilience profiles.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7104, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 4: Statistical outputs: ANDRI, coping capacity and adaptive capacity}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 4.1 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the overall Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 4.2 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the coping capacity index.

Section 4.3 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the adaptive capacity index.

}, keywords = {adaptive capacity, ANDRI, computation, coping capacity, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7105, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 5: Statistical outputs: disaster resilience themes}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Each section presents the statistical outputs and results of one disaster resilience theme.

Section 5.1 Social character.

Section 5.2 Economic capital.

Section 5.3 Emergency services.

Section 5.4 Planning and the built environment.

Section 5.5 Community capital.

Section 5.6 Information access.

Section 5.7 Social and community engagement.

Section 5.8 Governance and leadership.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, statistical output}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7106, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 6: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 6.1 Explains the role of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in composite index construction.

Section 6.2 Describes the uncertainty analysis applied to the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 6.2 Describes the sensitivity analysis applied to the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

}, keywords = {analysis, ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, sensitivity, uncertainty}, isbn = { 978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7100, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Index Design and Computation}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from natural disasters.\  Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events.\  Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events.\  This assessment of disaster resilience estimates the status of these capacities and shows how they are spatially distributed across Australia.

Composite indices are frequently used to summarize and report complex relational measurements about a particular issue.\  The Australian Disaster Resilience Index measures disaster resilience as a set of coping and adaptive capacities.\  Coping capacity is the means by which available resources and abilities can be used to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster.\  Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation.\  Eight themes of disaster resilience encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access) or to adapt, learn and solve problems (social and community engagement, governance and leadership).\  Across the eight themes, 77 indicators were used to compute the Australian Disaster Resilience Index in 2084 areas of Australia, corresponding to the Statistical Area Level 2 divisions of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The index was then used to undertake the first nationally standardised assessment of the state of disaster resilience in Australia.\  Disaster resilience is reported at three levels: an overall disaster resilience index, coping and adaptive capacity sub-indexes and themes of disaster resilience that encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards and to adapt, learn and solve problems (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access, social and community engagement, governance and leadership).

Volume II (this volume) describes in detail the computation of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index. This includes resilience concepts, literature\ review, index structure, data collection, indicators, statistical methods, detailed\ statistical outputs, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analyses.

Readers interested in the technical aspects of the Australian Disaster\ Resilience Index should also consider Volume II. Volume II is comprised of six\ chapters:

Chapter 1: Design of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index

Chapter 2: Indicators

Chapter 3: Computation of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index

Chapter 4: Statistical outputs: ADRI, coping capacity and adaptive\ capacity

Chapter 5: Statistical outputs: disaster resilience themes

Chapter 6: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7017, title = {Axial Load Variation of Columns in Symmetrical RC Buildings Subject to Bidirectional Lateral Actions in Regions of Low to Moderate Seismicity}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, pages = {1-29}, abstract = {

Columns in building frame systems are subjected to the combined action of bidirectional horizontal loading and axial load variation during an earthquake. Whilst the behaviour of RC columns under unidirectional and bidirectional lateral loading with constant axial load is understood well, the behaviour under bidirectional lateral loading with axial load variation is rarely studied, especially for limited ductile RC columns prevalent in regions of low to moderate seismicity. This paper begins with a numerical study that aims to obtain the generalised patterns and range of axial load variation in RC building columns. To this end, a case study building is subjected to a suite of 15 ground motions, representative of low to moderate seismic regions, in OpenSees. This is followed by an experimental study in which limited ductile high-strength RC columns are tested under bidirectional lateral loading and two different axial load variation protocols, namely synchronous and nonsynchronous variable axial loading protocols. The results of the numerical study demonstrated that axial load variation of the columns in an RC building is primarily dependent on the response spectral acceleration corresponding to the fundamental period of the structure in the two orthogonal horizontal directions and/or the vertical direction. The results of the experimental testing showed that nonsynchronous axial loading (compared to constant and synchronous axial loading) results in the lowest collapse drift capacity and energy dissipation of the RC columns.

}, keywords = {Axial load variation, bidirectional loading, drift capacity, earthquake, RC columns}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2020.1772151}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2020.1772151?journalCode=ueqe20}, author = {Saim Raza and Scott Menegon and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-6568, title = {Barriers and enablers in the long term recovery of communities affected by natural hazards: a review of the literature}, number = {534}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC reviews Australian and international literature on the long term recovery of communities that have been impacted by natural hazards.\  Previous reviews have considered the immediate, short and medium term recovery and to a lesser extent long term recovery.\  However, none have focused upon the barriers and the enablers of effective long term recovery.\  This is the focus of this literature review.

The review addressed three key areas:

1)\ \ \  what does the literature say is {\textquoteleft}long-term{\textquoteright} in disaster recovery and how does that play out in disasters;

2)\ \ \  what has been done well in disaster recovery (i.e. What has been shown to have benefits for community recovery); and,

3)\ \ \  what are the key messages for successful long term disaster recovery?

The approach required a review of literature that documented and discussed the problems that can arise within a recovery phase that can determine the barriers and enablers for effective long term recovery.\  This necessarily includes consideration of the short term recovery efforts as decisions made in the short term inevitably impact upon future outcomes.

The key findings were:

}, keywords = {communities, hazard response, literature review, Natural hazards, recovery}, issn = {534}, author = {Phil Morley and Elaine Barclay and Melissa Parsons} } @article {bnh-7196, title = {Benefit versus cost analysis and optimal cost effective mitigation strategies}, number = {598}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project entitled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

Previous project steps towards achieving this goal have included the development of a building schema to categorise the Australian residential building stock and a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review categorised strategies into elevation, relocation, dry floodproofing, wet floodproofing and the use of flood barriers. Five typical storey types which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia have been selected to evaluate the above mentioned mitigation strategies.

\ Each mitigation strategy has been costed through engagement of a professional quantity surveyor and the application of the mitigation strategies and resultant reduction in susceptibility of damage has been quantified in the form of vulnerability models for mitigated storey types.

This report presents an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies to residential buildings in Launceston Tasmania through a benefit versus cost analysis. The benefit versus cost analysis requires assessing loss both pre-and post-mitigation for a range of flood likelihoods with the difference being the benefit. The costs of the applied mitigation are then compared to the benefits with a benefit versus cost ratio of greater than 1.0 indicating an economically viable decision.

In the research presented here the mitigation options were typically assessed as cost-effective when considering damage to the rersidential buildings with the probable maximum flood extent.\  An important modelling assumption was to assume that the existing levee system that does provide a level of flood protection to Launceston was not in place (i.e. the City was unprotected). The results here are also only for one catchment and its behavior and also for the building stock in Launceston. The use of temporary flood barriers around the area with the highest flood hazard was the most cost-effective measure.

Work will continue with cost versus benefit analyses planned for other locations with different building stock configuarations and different catchment type behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk. The evidence base will feature information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and optimal solutions for different cases of building and catchment types.

}, keywords = {benefit, buildings, cost analysis, Flood, mitigation, strategies}, issn = {598}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6986, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {575}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Emerging as a distinct approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) over the last 15 years, the primary objective of Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CCDRR) is to strengthen children{\textquoteright}s knowledge and skills so that they understand the disaster risks that exist in their communities and can take a lead role in reducing those risks. In the Australian context, the most commonly practiced form of CCDRR is school-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Education (DRRRE).

To support the delivery of effective and sustainable in DRRRE in Australian schools, research conducted in the first phase of this project (2014-2017) was focused on the development of guiding models and frameworks and the evaluation and redevelopment of End-User DRRRE programs and resources.

For second phase of the project (2017-2020), the focus has shifted toward school-led DRRRE programs and initiatives, which will enable bottom-up processes to inform end-user policy and practice. The project is also addressing the vexing issue of scaled implementation through the development of an evidence-based national framework which brings together the concerns and priorities of emergency management agencies and the education sector.\ 

This Annual Report provides a summary of progress to date, including a discussion of how cumulative research outputs from the first four years of the project are being utilised by End-User agencies to inform DRRRE program design, implementation and evaluation. It then provides the details on the various research activities which comprise the 2017-2020 research program, including:

  1. Project-based learning for disaster risk reduction and resilience: an explanatory case study from Harkaway Primary School;
  2. Descriptive case studies of good practice in DRRRE;
  3. A national study of DRRRE implementation: the 3Rs of disaster education;
  4. The redevelopment of the DRRRE Practice Framework.

The report also includes a summary of current PhD projects and a comprehensive list of publications that have been produced over the course of the project.

}, keywords = {child-centred, Disaster risk reduction, education, practice}, issn = {575}, author = {Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-8037, title = {Building capacity in north Australian remote communities - utilisation project report}, number = {672}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The utilisation workshop was built on preliminary discussions between the research team and agency end users, the Red Cross, community stakeholders and research partners regarding the development of better communication between remote Indigenous communities and fire and emergency services agencies, to reduce risk and build resilience by taking advantage of local knowledge and skills. The workshop addressed topics relating to volunteer models, and specifically the inapplicability, of the classical model, to people living in remote Indigenous communities.

Outputs of the workshop will shape the form of utilisation product/s that participants considered useful for addressing their specific and collective needs regarding volunteering.

This report is a summary of the workshop in Darwin, 11-12th November 2020, and provides summary documents addressing volunteer models adopting narrative formats (e.g. case studies, storytelling, etc); refers to videos addressing key issues for wider community distribution.

The CRC and CDU and our partners will work on the development and delivery of a second utilisation phase 2021. The in-kind support for this workshop, from supporting agencies and stakeholders, will ensure appropriate development of utilisation products during the second phase. This utilisation workshop was funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC in direction linkage to the Building Remote Community Resilience to Natural Hazards Core Research project.

}, keywords = {building, capacity, communities, north australia, remote, utilisation, workshops}, issn = {672}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-6990, title = {Building resilience: understanding the capabilities of diverse communities: case studies of two communities}, number = {578}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Diversity and Inclusion: Building Strength and Capability (D\&I) project has identified building resilience with communities as a key focus of diversity and inclusion (D\&I) strategies for emergency management organisations (EMOs) (Young, Jones \& Kumnick, 2018). The project has identified a need for EMOs to develop greater understanding of the specific characteristics, barriers and needs of the communities they serve, and to identify their attributes, capabilities and skills. Interacting and communicating effectively with diverse communities has been identified as {\textquoteleft}critical to the building of resilience and reduction of risk associated with natural hazard events{\textquoteright} (Young, Jones \& Kumnick, 2018, p. 6).

D\&I strategies are vital to EMOs, but they cannot be developed in isolation, as communities themselves play a significant role in building relationships. The research to date has focused on developing knowledge of how EMOs must be more open to understanding and working with the diverse communities they serve. The need for strategic change in D\&I strategies and practices in EMOs is evident, and, in some cases, already in place (Rasmussen \& Maharaj, 2018; Young and Jones, 2019). However, less is understood about how aware Australia{\textquoteright}s newer communities are of potential natural hazard risks, their own capabilities and readiness to respond, and the potential roles they could play in building resilient communities with EMOs.

While D\&I strategies include greater representation of Australia{\textquoteright}s diverse communities in EMOs (Rasmussen \& Maharaj, 2018), this alone does not build resilient communities. Achieving this goal requires greater understanding of attributes, skills and capabilities from the perspective of the communities themselves. It also requires a fundamental change in the {\textquoteleft}nature of relationships EMOs have with their communities, from delivering a service (transactional), to working with them (relational){\textquoteright} (Young \& Jones, 2019, p. 8; see also Pyke, 2018; Young et al., 2018).

The case study communities reported on here were selected for their diversity rather than their specific engagement with the EMS. Neither have a strong relationship with, or even a complete understanding of, the emergency services and the role they play. The case studies reflect the disparate nature of diversity, with one a migrant community living in regional Victoria and the other an investigation of young people, aged 18{\textendash}25 years. While the migrant community is an obvious choice in developing understandings of the skills and capabilities of diverse groups, young people represent a unique challenge to EMOs in communities due to their emerging independence into adulthood, and trends in regional and rural contexts that see young people moving on to study, work and live in larger regional cities or urban environments.

}, keywords = {communities, diversity, resilience}, issn = {578}, author = {McDonald, F} } @article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6839, title = {A case study of disaster decision-making in the presence of anomalies and absence of recognition}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This paper provides an insight into the complexities of decision-making during an unprecedented disaster. We used the critical decision method to explore a series of decision points that were made for a low probability yet high consequence decision that was made by the commander of the Australian Urban Search and Rescue team deployed to Fukushima in 2011. The findings identified that in a situation with no similarities to previous experiences, the commander used a process of anomaly detection to trigger a situational assessment, following this with mental simulation and consultation of his actions. In this unparalleled case study, hazard-specific expertise also supported the decision-making process. The paper offers practitioners and academia an example of high consequence decision-making in a unique situation as well as the opportunity to reflect on the models of decision-making previously identified as useful in these operational environments.

}, keywords = {crisis management, Decision making, Disaster management, hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12290}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-5973.12290}, author = {Steve Curnin and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-6993, title = {Case study: use of remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves across defence lands}, number = {579}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel loads are a main driver of fire rate of spread. Therefore, a spatially explicit estimation of fuel loads, coupled with their variation through time may improve wildland fuel management and contribute to the design of more efficient active fire response strategies. However, the high frequency of planned and unplanned fires in large wild areas linked to varying fire severity levels that affect the rate at which fuels re-accumulate, make the continuous monitoring of wildland fuels challenging with field-based survey methods. Here we propose the use of satellite remote sensing to map fuel loads with a revisit time of 16 days. Fuel load maps are produced for five Defence Lands using Landsat and Sentinel-2 optical remote sensing data available at Digital Earth Australia and the National Computation Infrastructure. The fuel load maps are obtained by calculating the time series of the Vegetation Structure Perpendicular Index, an index that measures post-fire disturbance, and fitting these to fuel accumulation curves derived from literature.

}, keywords = {data analysis, defence lands, fuel accumulation, remote sensing}, issn = {579}, author = {Andrea Massetti and Marta Yebra and James Hilton and Christoph R{\"u}diger} } @article {bnh-7472, title = {Causes and consequences of Eastern Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019{\textendash}20 season of mega-fires: A broader perspective}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {26}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, pages = {pp. 3756-3758}, abstract = {

Climates{\textemdash}especially seasonal and long-term droughts{\textemdash}and fuel loads combine to determine risks of wildfires across much of Australia. Here we illustrate how long-term accumulations of fuel combined with a serious drought to drive the behaviour and extent of recent fires in South-eastern Australia.

This article is a commentary on Nolan et al. 26,\ 1039{\textendash}1041. See also the response to this letter by Bradstock et al. 26,\ e8{\textendash}e9.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, climate, Fire behaviour}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15125}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15125}, author = {Adams, Mark A. and Majid Shadmanroodposhti and Mathias Neumann} } @article {bnh-7784, title = {Checks and balances: A business-oriented lens on disaster management and warnings}, journal = {Disasters}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Following disasters, small businesses are critical to community recovery. Yet, factors that affect outcomes (e.g., planning, information needs, and response to warnings) are understudied. To overcome the research record{\textquoteright}s focus on policy favoured towards disaster mitigation rather than response, this article presents a two-phased, mixed method approach. The first study comprised interviews with businesses to elucidate disaster planning approaches, knowledge and information needs, and current warning system adequacy. It revealed opportunities to build knowledge and add business-specific content to agency-issued warnings. Through an online survey, study two examined how disaster knowledge, planning and experience related to existing bushfire warnings and those modified with business-relevant content. Findings showed that planning related to experience and knowledge but not to business-related protective action intentions. Modified messages were perceived as more effective and resulted in greater action intentions for those with bushfire experience. The article provides implications for small business-oriented disaster risk communication.

}, keywords = {business, communication, community, disaster, recovery}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12473}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/disa.12473}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Scott Murray and Cindy Hammill and Paula Dootson and Rebecca Langdon} } @article {bnh-7845, title = {Checks and balances: A business-oriented lens on disaster management and warnings}, journal = {Disasters}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Following disasters, small businesses are critical to community recovery. Yet, factors that affect outcomes (e.g., planning, information needs, and response to warnings) are understudied. To overcome the research record{\textquoteright}s focus on policy favoured towards disaster mitigation rather than response, this article presents a two-phased, mixed method approach. The first study comprised interviews with businesses to elucidate disaster planning approaches, knowledge and information needs, and current warning system adequacy. It revealed opportunities to build knowledge and add business-specific content to agency-issued warnings. Through an online survey, study two examined how disaster knowledge, planning and experience related to existing bushfire warnings and those modified with business-relevant content. Findings showed that planning related to experience and knowledge but not to business-related protective action intentions. Modified messages were perceived as more effective and resulted in greater action intentions for those with bushfire experience. The article provides implications for small business-oriented disaster risk communication.

}, keywords = {business, communications, disaster, Warnings}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12473}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/disa.12473?af=R}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Scott Murray and Cindy Hammill and Paula Dootson and Rebecca Langdon} } @article {bnh-6911, title = {Child-centred risk reduction and school safety: An evidence-based practice framework and roadmap}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This paper was developed to stimulate discussion across the broad global community of practice engaged in child-centred risk reduction and school safety, in discussion, co-development and action-planning. The purpose of the research was to develop a framework and roadmap to answer the questions of how to best design, develop, evaluate, and implement child-centred risk reduction (CCRR) and school safety (SS) policies and practices with documented outcomes and impacts, sustainably and at scale?

A mixed methods design included 1) a researcher-practitioner survey 2) bibliometric and stakeholder network analysis 3) face-to-face consultations with more than 250 members of the wider researcher-practitioner community in eight locations around the globe, with the aim of identifying research and practice links, gaps and priorities.

Collective impact theory was used to build a guiding framework and to elaborate a strategic roadmap for organisations and individuals to move to a new way of working collaboratively and programmatically.

Recommendations are elaborated in five areas

1. Promote research-practice collaboration: adopt a common agenda and focus and identify partnerships.

2. Advocate for organisational and sector culture change\ to support a shift to evidence-based, programmatic agenda and work.

3. Promote evidence-based practice, practice-based evidence and research utilisation.

4. Build capacity,\ through communities of practice, competency framework, and professional development to ensure best practice in day-to-day work.

5. Future research questions: related to the draft roadmap, a set of logically linked research questions for consideration and discussion by the CCRR/SS community.

}, keywords = {Child-centred risk reduction, Collective impact, Comprehensive school safety, Evidence-based practice, School safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101633}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420919305692}, author = {Marla Petal and Kevin Ronan and Gary Ovington and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-6828, title = {Children, bushfire and climate change}, journal = {Advocate: Journal of the National Tertiary Education Union}, volume = {27}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

In November 2008, I sat around a table at Warrandyte Primary School with a small group of 10-year-old students. I was interviewing them for my doctoral research on children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of vulnerability and resilience to bushfire in south-eastern Australia. The children told me what they loved about their beautiful bush suburb on the edge of the city: the trees, the river, the wildlife, and all the great places to play and explore. They also told me about the extreme bushfire risk. {\textquoteright}It{\textquoteright}s going to be a really bad bushfire season{\textquoteright}, one of them said. {\textquoteright}It{\textquoteright}s been a really long drought and the bush around here is really dry. Everything could go up. Just like that{\textquoteright}. They all agreed that everyone needed to get prepared before summer arrived. A few months later, on 7 February 2009, the Black Saturday bushfires razed dozens of communities around Victoria: 173 people were killed, including 24 children. Hundreds of people were injured. Over 2000 homes were destroyed. Natural ecosystems were devastated. Everything went up. Just like that.

}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=034005191172667;res=IELBUS}, author = {Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-7515, title = {Civil society mobilisation after Cyclone Tracy, Darwin 1974}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

Major disasters challenge or exceed the capacity of the official emergency management sector to provide needed rescue services, support and relief. Emergency services in most jurisdictions do not have the surge capacity for unusual or extreme events without drawing on other jurisdictions or local people from outside the formal emergency management organisations. In such circumstances, those in the affected area need to organise themselves and make maximum use of local resources to cope with the immediate aftermath of impact. To find the required surge capacity, this suggests a whole of society response with the official system working with the capacities of people, commerce and organisations outside the emergency sector. An example is provided by the destruction of the northern Australian capital city of Darwin by Cyclone Tracy in December 1974. Informal volunteering and emergent leadership in Darwin and across Australia were critical to the immediate response and relief. Volunteering was widespread and worked well alongside official emergency management. With today{\textquoteright}s information and communication technologies and a strong national resilience narrative, we would expect to do at least as well. However, governments now exercise much more control over civil society. We examine the implications for surge capacity and adaptability.

}, keywords = {civil society mobilisation, Cyclone Tracy, Darwin, spontaneous volunteers, surge capacity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2020.1838254}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/RQNXEBDZWDSFG3PCZQMT/full?target=10.1080/17477891.2020.1838254}, author = {John Handmer and Pascale Maynard} } @article {bnh-7342, title = {Climate Change Significantly Alters Future Wildfire Mitigation Opportunities in Southeastern Australia}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {47}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used globally to mitigate the risks of wildfires, with severe wildfires increasing in frequency in recent decades. Despite their importance in wildfire management, the nature of future changes to prescribed burn windows under global warming remains uncertain. We use a regional climate projection ensemble to provide a robust spatiotemporal quantification of statistically significant future changes in prescribed burn windows for southeastern Australia. There are significant decreases during months presently used for prescribed burning, that is, in March to May in 2060{\textendash}2079 versus 1990{\textendash}2009 across several temperate regions. Conversely, burn windows show widespread significant increases in June to August, that is, months when burns have rarely occurred historically, and also in spring (September{\textendash}October). Overall, projected changes in temperature and fuel moisture show the most widespread and largest decreases (or increases) in the number of days within their respective ranges suitable for conducting burns. These results support wildfire risk mitigation planning.

}, keywords = {climate modeling, environmental change, Fire weather, Natural hazards, prescribed burns, risk mitigation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088893}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020GL088893}, author = {Giovanni Di Virgillio and Jason P. Evans and Hamish Clarke and Jason J. Sharples and Annette Hirsch and Melissa Anne Hart} } @article {bnh-7417, title = {Climatology of wind changes and elevated fire danger over Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Wind changes are a critical factor in fire management, particularly on days of elevated fire danger, and have been shown to be a factor in many firefighter entrapments in Australia and the USA. While there have been numerous studies of frontal wind changes over southeastern Australia since the 1950s, a spatial climatology of wind change strength and frequency over Victoria has hitherto been limited by the relatively low number of observation sites that have both high temporal resolution observations and sufficient length of record. This study used a recently developed high spatial (4-km grid) and temporal (1 hour) resolution, 46-year, homogeneous gridded fire weather climatology data set to generate a climatology of wind change strength by season at each gridpoint across Victoria. The metric used to define a wind change is the vector difference between the wind speed and direction over each 1-hour interval, with the highest value occuring on each day being selected for spatial analysis of strength and frequency. The highest values of wind change strength are found along the crest of the Great Dividing Range (the Great Divide), with a peak in spring. Elsewhere, the highest values occur in summer, with the areas south of the Great Divide, west of Melbourne and in central Gippsland showing higher values than the remainder of the state. The strength of wind changes generally decreases north of the Great Divide, although it is stronger in the northwest of the state in spring rather than in autumn. Lowest summertime (and other seasons) values occur in the northeast of the state and in far-east Gippsland. Exploring the frequencies of days when the highest daily Forest Fire Danger Index and the highest daily wind change strength jointly exceed defined thresholds shows that the northwest of the state has the highest springtime frequencies, whereas the highest autumn frequencies occur west of Melbourne and south of the Great Divide. The highest numbers of joint events in summer (when the greatest frequencies also occur) extend from central Victoria west to the South Australian border, with a secondary maximum in central Gippsland. These analyses offer important information for fire weather forecasters and for fire practitioners when preparing for a fire season or managing a fire campaign (for example, for allocating resources or understanding risks).

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, climatology, extreme weather, fire danger, fire management, firefighter entrapment, Victoria, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19043}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES19043}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Sarah Harris and Brown, T and Alex Chen} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8097, title = {Collapse behaviour of limited ductile high-strength RC columns under multidirectional earthquake actions}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, school = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Raza (2020) employed experimental, numerical and empirical methods to develop a fundamental understanding of the collapse behaviour of limited ductile high-strength reinforced concrete columns, designed as per Australian concrete standard, under multidirectional earthquake loading. The adequacy of the requirements of the concrete design standard in Australia was assessed and adequate design recommendations were proposed to ensure collapse prevention of such columns in a major earthquake event. The research outcomes are expected to have important implications for the earthquake safety of building stocks in Australia and globally.

}, keywords = {actions, Behaviour, Collapse, ductile, earthquake, high-strength RC columns, limited, multidirectional}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/456529}, url = {https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/items/10dd9ce0-2aa2-4a20-b78b-dd5695225dbe/1/}, author = {Saim Raza} } @article {bnh-7464, title = {Collapse probability of soft-storey building in Australia and implications for risk-based seismic design}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {1-13}, abstract = {

Collapse prevention is the primary objective of earthquake-resistant design of structures; hence, the probability of collapse should be taken as a crucial performance indicator for risk-based design of new structures or assessment of existing structures. One major challenge in collapse risk assessment is to reliably model the non-linear structural response behaviour. This study features the rocking response behaviour of precast reinforced concrete (RC) columns based on results from previous field testing on parts of a real building and supplemented with a study of their rocking behaviours through a series of shake-table tests. The effects of bidirectional earthquake actions on failure drift capacity of columns have also been incorporated, such that realistic estimates of displacement capacity were made for constructing collapse fragility functions, which were then combined with the ground motion recurrence relationships of Melbourne, Australia for the computation of collapse probability. A suite of typical soft-storey buildings was adopted, with considerations given to a diversity of site conditions. Deaggregation of the results reveals the range of return periods that controls the collapse risk, which could have important implications for the choice of earthquake scenarios for seismic analysis and design in regions of lower seismicity.

}, keywords = {Collapse Probability, drift capacity, Return Period, Risk-based Seismic Design, soft-storey building}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2020.1835157}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2020.1835157}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-6964, title = {Community engagement for disaster preparedness: A systematic literature review}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Disaster management agencies invest differing levels of resources into guiding communities to get ready for a range of hazards, and are increasingly turning to community engagement as a way of increasing preparedness. This paper presents a systematic literature review that reports on the effect of community communication and engagement techniques that have been used in a hazard preparedness context. The review findings suggest that most community engagement techniques are effective in generating some level of increased preparedness. For techniques that were found not to work, lack of benchmarking research, context and skill levels of those implementing the engagement were thought to be at fault rather than structural or conceptual problems with the technique itself. Face to face techniques were more consistently successful than mass media campaigns. However, all of the intervention types reported had some measure of success, even though there were individual failures. The 41 studies included used a wide variety of research methods that also varied greatly in rigor and replicability. Agency efforts to engage communities in preparedness should include a wide range of techniques that work together to change behaviour, including face-to-face community engagement that triggers and supports community-led preparedness activity.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Community engagement tools, hazard, Preparedness, risk reduction}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101655}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420919317893?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor and Ryan McAndrew} } @article {bnh-7523, title = {A comparison of terrestrial and UAS sensors for measuring fuel hazard in a dry sclerophyll forest}, journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation}, volume = {95}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

In recent years, Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) have been used to capture information on forest structure in unprecedented detail. Pioneering studies in this field have shown that high spatial resolution images and Light Detecting And Ranging (LiDAR) data captured from these platforms provide detailed information describing the dominant tree elements of canopy cover and biomass. However, to date, few studies have investigated the arrangement of vegetation elements that contribute directly to fire propagation in UAS LiDAR point clouds; that is the surface, near-surface, elevated and intermediate-canopy vegetation. This paper begins to address this gap in the literature by exploring the use of image-based and LiDAR 3D representations collected using UAS platforms, for describing forest structure properties. Airborne and terrestrial 3D datasets were captured in a dry sclerophyll forest in south-eastern Australia. Results indicate that UAS LiDAR point clouds contain information that can describe fuel properties in all strata. Similar estimates of canopy cover (TLS: 68.27\% and UAS LiDAR: 64.20\%) and sub-canopy cover (Elevated cover TLS: 44.94\%, UAS LiDAR: 32.27\%, combined surface and near-surface cover TLS: 96.10\% UAS LiDAR: 93.56\%) to TLS were achieved using this technology. It was also shown that the UAS SfM photogrammetric technique significantly under performed in the representation of the canopy and below canopy structure (canopy cover - 20.31\%, elevated cover 10.09\%). This caused errors to be propagated in the estimate of heights in the elevated fuel layer (TLS: 0.51\ m, UAS LiDAR: 0.34\ m, UAS SfM: 0.15\ m). A method for classifying fuel hazard layers is also presented which identifies vegetation connectivity. These results indicate that information describing the below canopy vertical structure is present within the UAS LiDAR point clouds and can be exploited through this novel classification approach for fire hazard assessment. For fire prone countries, this type of information can provide important insight into forest fuels and the potential fire behaviour and impact of fire under different scenarios.

}, author = {Samuel Hillman and Luke Wallace and Arko Lucieer and Karin Reinke and Darren Turner and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-7296, title = {Compound natural disasters in Australia: a historical analysis}, number = {605}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Compound disasters pose complex disaster coordination and recovery challenges. To inform disaster planning for catastrophic disasters it is essential to understand their frequency and characteristics. In this study we utilise natural disaster loss databases to identify the frequency of historical compound disasters in Australia, considering their characteristics and climate influences. Results show that compound disasters have occurred frequently and are associated with the highest seasonal losses in terms of both insured financial losses and fatalities. They may occur coincidently with other societal stressors such as wars, recessions and pandemics further exacerbating their consequences. Though their component disasters most frequently occur in eastern Australia, events can comprise disasters in both the east and west of the continent.\  There is no temporal trend in their frequency when considering financial losses, but there is a downward trend when considering only fatalities. \ It is essential that future disaster risk assessments and plans consider compound disaster scenarios. Relationships with climate drivers may assist to forecast their occurrence.

}, keywords = {compound, historical analysis, Natural disasters}, issn = {605}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Matthew Timms and Stuart Browning and Coates, Lucinda and R Crompton and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-7574, title = {A Computational Tool for Ground-Motion Simulations Incorporating Regional Crustal Conditions}, journal = {Seismological Research Letters}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

This article introduces a computational tool, namely ground-motion simulation system (GMSS), for generating synthetic accelerograms based on stochastic simulations. The distinctive feature of GMSS is that it has two independently developed upper-crustal models (expressed in the form of shear-wave velocity profiles), which have been built into the program for deriving the frequency-dependent crustal factors, and one of these models was originally developed by the authors. GMSS also has provisions to allow the user to specify their own preferred crustal profile. Sufficient details of both crustal models (forming part of the seismological model) and the accelerogram simulation methodology are presented herein in one article, to allow any person who has programming skills (on a user-friendly platform such as MATLAB, see\ Data and Resources), to develop their computational tools to implement any further innovations in crustal modeling for direct engineering applications. Crustal properties deep into bedrock can only be accounted for implicitly by conventional ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) as much depends on the region where the ground motion was recorded. This limitation of existing GMPEs poses a challenge to engineering in regions that are not well represented by any strong-motion database. Toward the end of this article, readers are enlightened with the potential transdisciplinary utility of using GMSS, to facilitate the retrieval and scaling of accelerograms sourced from a database of real earthquake records through the construction of a conditional mean spectrum.

}, keywords = {Computational tool, modelling, seismic}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200222}, url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-abstract/doi/10.1785/0220200222/592863/A-Computational-Tool-for-Ground-Motion-Simulations?redirectedFrom=fulltext}, author = {Yuxiang Tang and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang} } @article {bnh-7378, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {614}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings in the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020.

Progress has been made in 4 complementary fronts to:

  1. understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit
  2. risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model
  3. advance an end-user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study of the historic town of York in Western Australia
  4. commencement of an End-User Utilisation Project with York Shire Council and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services through a Natural Disaster Resilience Program funded grant.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The third component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. The last component only started at the end of 2019 but is extremely exciting. To date, the project team has identified several URM buildings in the York Shire to act as {\textquoteleft}exemplars{\textquoteright} for seismic retrofit. The first of these, the York Residency Museum building, has been seismically assessed, retrofit solutions recommended, local consultants (engineering and building contractors) have submitted a report and estimated costings for the rehabilitation work and Council is now in discussions with the contractor.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {614}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-6901, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk}, number = {565}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC project Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk\ is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings. It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:-

This report describes progress made against the last component which undertook some trial runs to estimate business income loss and rental income loss and provided a complete work plan for estimating direct health care cost.

The economic loss modelling approach aims to encompass the information needs of a range of decision makers. These view benefits through different {\textquotedblleft}lenses{\textquotedblright} and at differing scales. For this research they include:-

This report presents the methodological progress in estimating the proprietary and wage/salary income loss due to business interruption, direct health care costs and the casualty costs to society due to injury and loss of life in the context of the forthcoming Melbourne city case study. The report corresponds with the 30 June 2019 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Reporting on Economic Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies and Building Level{\textquotedblright}.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake risk, mitigation strategy}, issn = {565}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7509, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: ACCESS-Fire {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {630}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has been on several aspects:

  1. ACCESS-Fire has been installed on NCI and substantial investment has been made in testing and developing the model
  2. A meteorological case study of the Waroona fire has been published, which generated outreach activities across numerous agencies and jurisdictions.
  3. ACCESS-Fire has been run on two fires: the Waroona fire in WA and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW. A draft of the results of the Waroona simulations has been prepared and analysis and manuscript outline of the Sir Ivan simulations is well underway.
  4. Operational support was requested by fire agencies and the Bureau during high-impact events during the 2019-20 fire season. Support was provided in CFS and SES in SA, RFS in NSW and QFES in QLD during the protracted fire campaigns.
  5. A draft of the paper {\textquoteleft}Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright} has been prepared.

The project has continued to participate strongly in outreach activities, including media engagement through extended radio interviews and collaboration on print and online news articles.\  Conference presentations, high level training presentations and panel participation on topics including fire science, High Performance Computing, STEM careers and Women in Leadership have been attended.

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has repeatedly applied that knowledge in critical focus during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications. \ However, it demonstrates successful realization of the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The capability is recognized and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau; value that is evidenced by the repeated requests to provide high-level fire and meteorological interpretation inside operations.\ 

We therefore thank BNHCRC for their understanding in allowing flexible deadlines and repeatedly negotiating project timelines and deliverables, as this flexibility to shifting priorities has enabled the project team to provide operational support when it was needed.

Our focus for the remainder of the project is to complete advanced drafts of the papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature and expand the body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies. \ We will also share the results with a range of audiences through three online presentations and recordings during which we intend to develop presenting experience in more junior members of the project team.

These objectives may be challenging, due to the need to work from home during the Coronavirus pandemic and the need to be flexible with plans.

We are confident that we will bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge, analysis techniques and software that can benefit the field of meteorology and fire prediction and the Australian community into the future.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {630}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-7341, title = {A Culture of Burning: Social-Ecological Memory, Social Learning and Adaptation in Australian Volunteer Fire Brigades}, journal = {Society and Natural Resources}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, abstract = {

While Australian government agencies are increasingly emphasizing the need to {\textquotedblleft}build community resilience{\textquotedblright} to bushfires, communities in many rural landscapes have a strong history of actively managing fire risk, in particular through involvement in volunteer fire brigades. This paper explores social-ecological memory, social learning, and adaptation in volunteer Country Fire Authority brigades in western Victoria, specifically in the context of planned burning of strategic roadside fire breaks. It examines the relationships between local knowledge, narratives and practices of burning and how these shape volunteer identities, embodying {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright}. Findings show that participation in roadside burning is critical for supporting social learning and ongoing community engagement in fire management. However, changing land uses, social demographics and regulatory processes are negatively impacting local volunteer capacities. While brigades have responded by re-organizing their practices, questions remain as to what extent this constitutes adaptation or transformation connecting to broader landscape-level risk management.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Bushfire, community-based fire management, planned burning, resilience, volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1819494}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08941920.2020.1819494}, author = {Sarah Dickson-Hoyle and Ruth Beilin and Karen Reid} } @article {bnh-6537, title = {Decision making, team monitoring \& organisational learning in emergency management annual report 2018-2019}, number = {531}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project explores aspects of teamwork, decision making and organisational learning with the aim of better supporting people working in complex strategic operations centres.\  We have adopted a human-centred design method to produce practical tools that are designed around how people use these tools in their workplace.\  As part of this process end-users are embedded into the research process. Bringing end-users into the research process creates a partnership where the researchers contribute their knowledge of literature, theory and the research process and the end-users contribute their requirements, operational knowledge and understanding of the barriers to utilisation and adoption.\  Using the human-centred design method we have created a number of practical tools that are at various stages of development.\  These tools focus on managing teams, how to make better decisions, and how to better utilise the products of research.\  For the tools that have reached (or are close to reaching) the end of their evaluation we have also developed training to support their use by end-users.\  We have seen extensive operational use by end-users of the tools we have developed, with a number of agencies amending their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools. \ In addition, research from the project has formed the basis of several key publications (e.g. the Resilience Expert Advisory Group{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}A practical guide for crisis decision making.{\textquotedblright}). Into the future we will be continuing to develop new tools to support teamwork, decision making and organisational learning and expect to see further utilisation by agencies both in Australia and worldwide.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, teams}, issn = {531}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hayes and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-6737, title = {Deconstructing factors contributing to the 2018 fire weather in Queensland, Australia}, volume = {101}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {S15-S21}, edition = {1}, abstract = {

Factors including the circulation pattern and antecedent conditions contributed to 2018 northeast Australian fires. High background temperatures also played a role for which model evidence suggests an anthropogenic influence.

}, keywords = {Fire, Fire weather, Queensland}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0144.1}, url = {https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/}, author = {Sophie Lewis and Stephanie Blake and Blair Trewin and Mitchell Black and Dowdy, Andrew J and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Andrew King and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-6905, title = {Detecting the effects of prescribed burning using generalised additive modelling}, number = {566}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Data collected from 52 plots from sites in Victoria and New South Wales were used to test whether a simple modelling technique {\textendash} a generalised additive model (GAM) {\textendash} could be used in conjunction with satellite imagery to detect the effect of prescribed burning on the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was selected as the strongest indicator of a change in forest hydrology given the direct effect of removal of vegetation with fuel reduction burning. Variables included in the ET GAM were site details (location, elevation, aspect, slope), soil properties (total carbon and nitrogen), climate (short-term and long- term rainfall, maximum and minimum daily temperature, solar radiation) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a commonly used spectral product derived from satellite imagery. These variables were used to develop GAMs using sites in each state and combined together. Results from this modelling suggested a change in ET due to prescribed burning was more obvious for sites in Victoria than in NSW. Vegetation (EVI) and climatic variables (solar radiation, df5 and df95) were the best predictors for changes in ET due to prescribed burning activities. Soil (C:N) and terrain variables (slope, aspect, elevation) were not important factors for detecting change in ET. Limitations due to temporal and spatial differences in sampling unburnt and burnt plots and future potential for this method are discussed.

}, keywords = {additive modelling, fire effects, Prescribed burning}, issn = {566}, author = {Mengran Yu and David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7686, title = {Determination of Firebrand Characteristics Using Thermal Videos}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

Burning firebrands generated by wildland or prescribed fires may lead to the initiation of spot fires and fire escapes. At the present time, there are no methods that provide information on the thermal characteristics and number of such firebrands with high spatial and temporal resolution. A number of algorithms have been developed to detect and track firebrands in field conditions in our previous study; however, each holds particular disadvantages. This work is devoted to the development of new algorithms and their testing and, as such, several laboratory experiments were conducted. Wood pellets, bark, and twigs of pine were used to generate firebrands. An infrared camera (JADE J530SB) was used to obtain the necessary thermal video files. The thermograms were then processed to create an annotated IR video database that was used to test both the detector and the tracker. Following these studies, the analysis showed that the Difference of Gaussians detection algorithm and the Hungarian tracking algorithm upheld the highest level of accuracy and were the easiest to implement. The study also indicated that further development of detection and tracking algorithms using the current approach will not significantly improve their accuracy. As such, convolutional neural networks hold high potential to be used as an alternative approach

}, keywords = {wildfires; firebrands; software; detection; tracking; fire management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3040068}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/4/68}, author = {Sergey Prohanov and Alex Filkov and D. P. Kasymov and Mikhail Agafontsev and Vladimir Reyno} } @article {bnh-7499, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {626}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

At this phase the project was focused on development of a new method to test flammability of live vegetation in dynamic conditions and understanding influence of climatic changes on the 2019/20 bushfire season in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and South Australia (SA).

Understanding live vegetation fuel properties and how they behave when exposed to radiant heat and flame allows us to better predict fire behaviour in forested areas. This study aims to determine a more effective, replicable and accurate method of testing flammability in live vegetation by comparing the impact different radiant heating regimes have on the ignitibility of live vegetation samples. Current methodologies are limited in their ability to provide accurate quantification of flammability due to their reliance on static heat flux exposure, which does not accurately replicate how live plants experience radiative heat flux during a wildfire in their natural environment. Two heating regimes were tested for this study {\textendash} a static heat flux to reflect current methods and a dynamic (increasing) heat flux to more accurately replicate real conditions of an approaching fire front. Piloted-ignition and unpiloted-ignition were also tested for both of these heating regimes. A Variable Heat Flux (VHFlux) Apparatus was used to study flammability of Acacia floribunda, Cassinia arcuata, Pinus radiata and bark from Eucalyptus obliqua. Time to pyrolysis (production of volatile products), smouldering, flaming ignition, complete consumption and radiant exposure (the radiant energy received by a sample over a time of heating, He) were used as ignitability measures. It was observed that time and radiant exposure required to reach flaming ignition (and the other ignitibility metrics) was higher under a dynamic heating regime. It was also observed that the presence of a pilot igniter greatly increased the number of samples that reached flaming ignition, and decreased the time and He required to reach flaming ignition (and the other ignitibility metrics). These results suggest clear differences observed between heating regimes for time and Herequired for ignition and other ignitibility measures, which supports the validity of using dynamic heating regimes and the VHFlux apparatus as a standardised method. Adoption of this methodology is recommended to ensure more realistic data on flammability of individual plant species and plant communities, which will ultimately lead to better informed and more accurate wildfire behaviour modelling.

There is no doubt that the fire season of 2019/20 was extraordinary. A total of 18,983,588hectares were burned, 3113 houses and 33 lives lost in 15,344 bushfires in Black Summer fires. NSW had the highest number of fires, area burned, houses and lives lost for the last 20 years. Two mega-blazes occurred in NSW and burned more than in any fire season during the last 20 years. Victoria had the highest number of fires, area burned, and houses lost (except for the Black Saturday fires). SA had the highest number of houses lost in the last 20 years. Relationships between the burned area and number of fires, the houses and lives lost had positive trend for all states irrespective of the dataset. A negative relationship between the houses and lives lost for SA was the only exception. Multiple studies show that fire weather will become more severe in many regions around the world. Based on this and observed positive trends for all categories for NSW and Victoria, it is likely that the values will continue to increase in these states in the future. SA before 2019/20 was in a relatively good position showing negative trends for almost all categories. However, the 2019/20 fire season changed that for the worse. The magnitude of effect from increased fire weather may depend on how these conditions alter vegetation across Australia, however the indications shown in this analysis are concerning for fire managers.

Smoke from bushfires significantly impacted on people with cardiovascular and respiratory problems and increased mortality. It also had indirect impact on the economy by disrupting communities. The total impact of the 2019/20 bushfire season to the economy is estimated to be as much as A$40 billion. Due to the record burned area, at least 1 billion vertebrate animals were lost. It will take many years to restore the economy in impacted areas, and for animal and vegetation biodiversity to recover. Understanding of high-level trends of number of fires, area burned, houses and lives lost for the last two decades in south-eastern Australia will provide useful insights to fire managers for future strategies and policies.

}, keywords = {Behaviour, conditions, extreme fire, threshold}, issn = {626}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @inbook {bnh-7381, title = {Developing guidelines for increasing the resilience of informal settlements exposed to wildfire risk using a risk-based planning approach}, booktitle = {Understanding Disaster Risk: A Multidimensional Approach}, year = {2020}, pages = {159-178}, publisher = { Elsevier}, organization = { Elsevier}, chapter = {2.1}, abstract = {

Internationally, there is an increasing concern with the development of improved ways of dealing with disasters (UNISDR, 2015). Wildfires bring about greater disaster risks at the urban-rural interface of wildfire-prone areas, where lives and properties are more exposed. These risks are often greater in contexts of informality, where settlements have been built with limited consideration of risks. This chapter reports on the production of guidelines to develop resilience to wildfires for communities living in informal settlements exposed to wildfire risk. It responds to Sendai Framework for Action{\textquoteright}s priority one {\textquotedblleft}understanding disaster risk{\textquotedblright} (UNISDR, 2015, p. 15). The investigation is approached through participatory action research. It is the result of a collaboration between diverse stakeholders during the seminar {\textquotedblleft}Prevention of Forest Fire Risks in Urban Settlements and Buildings: A Planning and Design Approach.{\textquotedblright} The study case is Ag{\"u}ita de la Perdiz, in Concepcion, Chile, an informal settlement with ongoing wildfire risk. The seminar{\textquoteright}s product is condensed in a set of guidelines. These guidelines{\textemdash}and the process of producing them{\textemdash}are expected to contribute to disseminating knowledge about general design and planning strategies to mitigate wildfire risk as well as to strengthen local capacities. It is argued that the collaborative process undertaken to develop the guidelines is replicable in other places to address context-specific issues.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Informal settlements, Local communities, spatial planning, urban planning, wildfires}, issn = {978-0-12-819047-0}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819047-0.00002-0}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128190470000020}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March} } @inbook {bnh-6647, title = {Dimensions of Risk Justice and Resilience: Mapping Urban Planning{\textquoteright}s Role Between Individual Versus Collective Rights}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {93-115}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {5}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

This chapter applies a justice framework to the complex of dilemmas between individual rights and the public good. It uses the case of the Wye River and Separation Creek Christmas Day 2015 bushfire in Victoria, Australia. Analysis of this event reveals the complex interactions of assumed, asserted and contested rights that play out before, during and after major destructive bushfire events, and their justice implications. The chapter suggests that there is a need to acknowledge and treat risks as complex manifestations of ongoing decisions over time; that existing emphases on individual property rights often erode the public good; that there is a need to set minimum standards in settlements; and that there is need to actively integrate individual and collective action to achieve risk justice.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Human settlements, Justice, Public good, risk, urban planning, Wildfire}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley} } @article {bnh-7471, title = {Diminishing CO2-driven gains in water-use efficiency of global forests}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {10}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, pages = {466{\textendash}471}, abstract = {

There is broad consensus that, via changes in stomatal conductance, plants moderate the exchanges of water and carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere, playing a major role in global hydroclimate. Tree rings record atmospheric CO2\ concentration (ca) and its isotopic composition (13C/12C){\textemdash}mediated by stomatal and photosynthetic influences{\textemdash}that can be expressed in terms of intrinsic water-use efficiency (W). Here, we compile a global\ W\ dataset based on 422 tree-ring isotope series and report that\ W\ increased with\ ca\ over the twentieth century, but the rates of increase (dW/dca) declined by half. Angiosperms contributed more than gymnosperms to the slowdown, and in recent decades, dW/dca\ for angiosperms was close to zero. dW/dca\ varies widely across climatic regions and reflects pauses in emissions during the Great Depression and after World War II. There is strong spatial variability in climate forcing via an increasing\ W, which is weakening globally with time.

}, keywords = {Biogeochemistry, Climate and Earth system modelling, Ecophysiology, hydrology}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0747-7}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0747-7}, author = {Adams, Mark A. and Buckley, TN and Turnbull, Tarryn L.} } @book {bnh-6799, title = {Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement}, year = {2020}, publisher = { John Wiley \& Sons}, organization = { John Wiley \& Sons}, address = {Oxford}, abstract = {

Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement\ provides a much-needed evidence-based guide for designing effective disaster learning plans and programs that are tailored to local communities and their particular hazard risks. Drawing on the most recent research from disaster psychology, disaster sociology, and education psychology, as well as evaluations of disaster learning programs, the book contains practical guidance for putting in place a proven design framework. The book\ draws heavily on research from multiple CRC projects and presents a detailed framework to guide the design and evaluation of tailored disaster learning programs, including information that links disaster resilience with sustainability and climate change learning.

The book outlines the steps to take in order to tailor a disaster education, communication and engagement program and highlights illustrative examples of effective programs and activities from around the world. The author includes information on how to identify potential community learners and presents a methodology for understanding the at-risk community, its hazard risks, disaster risk reduction, and emergency management arrangements.\ Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement\ describes both country-wide campaigns and local disaster programs that involve community participation. This important resource:\ 

Written for emergency managers, students of emergency management, and humanitarian courses,\ Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement\ is a hands-on guide filled with ideas and templates for designing and evaluating targeted disaster learning programs.

}, keywords = {communication, disaster, education, engagement}, issn = {978-1-119-56979-4}, url = {https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Disaster+Education\%2C+Communication+and+Engagement-p-9781119569770}, author = {Neil Dufty} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8160, title = {Disaster risk reduction education for children: a study in Bangladesh engaging children as co-researchers}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {379}, school = {CQUniversity}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the last decade, a number of studies have been conducted on different types of disaster education programs for children. These studies suggest that such programs enable children to be more resilient, not only in terms of increased knowledge on disaster risk reduction (DRR) but also increased preparedness and confidence. However, despite the positive findings, significant challenges still remain. In spite of generating effective DRR outcomes, the area of program development and evaluation lacks a guiding model. This includes one that speaks to both effectiveness and sustainable implementation. Disaster education programs for children are mostly designed and implemented by non-formal educators such as development and humanitarian agencies. As a result, the literature is primarily based on the evaluation of programs (such as those of Non-Government Organisations or NGOs). Many of these have been identified as having significant methodological limitations. Studies to date also typically rely on DRR knowledge indicators and do not identify the explicit elements of the programs responsible for generating specific positive outcomes. None of the studies has sought direct opinion from children regarding the process, efficacy and outcomes of such programs.\ 

Thus, this study aims to conduct rigorously designed research on DRR education for children in Bangladesh by involving children{\textquoteright}s active input and participation. In so doing, it aims to identify the specific elements of the DRR education programs for children that produce positive outcomes. Another aim is to examine implementation factors, including those structural and process factors that facilitate rather than impede sustainable implementation and child-participation.\ 

Considering the role of active child participation in this research, this study sought to empower the children by engaging them as co-researchers. Since the power inequalities between child participants and adult researchers are inevitable for obvious reasons such as age gap, lack of experience of children in the field of research and, above all, the accountability mechanism in academia, child-participation literature recommends the intriguing idea of seeking children{\textquoteright}s assistance in understanding their perspectives, instead of merely regarding them as research objects. This study therefore fostered children as co-researchers by involving them in various research activities, ranging from data collection to analysis, and importantly, in documenting the findings. To more effectively minimise the power differential, the study incorporated child-friendly methods and techniques that are built on children{\textquoteright}s competencies and interests and ensured that the children had support from each other.\ 

This study makes a significant contribution to our theoretical understanding of DRR education for children by exploring its related challenges and achievements. It provides evidence for improvements in relevant policy and practice. The recommendations made by the child co-researchers can be used as guiding principles in the design and implementation of child-centred DRR education programs in Bangladesh. Most importantly, by bringing children on board as co-researchers, this study provides a framework for engaging children in research on disasters. It therefore encourages future researchers to empower children as co-researchers and foster their genuine participation in research.\ 

}, keywords = {Bangladesh, child-centred, children, co-researchers, Disaster risk reduction, education}, author = {Mayeda Rashid} } @article {bnh-7837, title = {Disaster Risk Reduction in Bushfire Prone Areas: Challenges for an Integrated Land Use Planning Policy Regime}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

The need for an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) is widely promoted across the contemporary disaster literature and policy discourse. In Australia, the importance of integrating bushfire management and land use planning systems is a growing priority as bushfire risk in urbanized areas increases. This paper examines the changing policy landscape towards an integrated DRR regime for land use planning and bushfire management in south-west Western Australia. The research is based on a qualitative analysis of policy documents and in-depth interviews with policy actors associated with this regime. The results identify several challenges of policy integration for an integrated land use planning and bushfire management DRR regime, including incompatible worldviews, sectorial objectives and knowledge sets. A lack of cross-sectoral understanding, different risk tolerances and instrument preferences also constrained integration efforts. Based on our findings, we argue that rule-based mechanisms, which establish a legal framework for integration, are necessary when different policy goals and worldviews prevail between policy sectors. However, we conclude by emphasizing the value of actor-based mechanisms for integrated DRR policy regimes, which enable ongoing cross-sectoral communication and policy learning and facilitate a systems-oriented perspective of disaster resilience in the built environment.

}, keywords = {bushfire management, Disaster risk reduction, land use planning, policy integration, resilience}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410496}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10496/htm}, author = {Simone Ruane and Mohammad Shahidul Hasan Swapan and Courtney Babb} } @article {bnh-7089, title = {Disasters and economic resilience in small regional communities: the case of Toodyay}, number = {589}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socioeconomic effects on impacted communities. Examples in the past decade include the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires 2009 and the Queensland Floods 2010-11, which caused significant loss of life, losses across multiple sectors (including mining and agriculture), and damage to countless homes and properties. With the severity and frequency of natural disasters expected to increase (Kitching et al., 2014), there is growing academic and policy effort towards better understanding: the risks such disasters pose on Australian communities; the impacts they have on different industry sectors and community groups; and the role that disaster risk reduction can play in minimising such impacts and building disaster resilience.

Estimating the total economic costs of natural disasters can be difficult, owing to the lack of complete and systematic data, conceptual difficulties (Kousky, 2014) and divergent predictions from growth theory about the effects of natural disasters on economic growth (Loayza et al., 2012). While the literature is inconclusive, with some studies reporting negative effects and others positive or insignificant effects (Loayza et al., 2012), a recent meta-analysis of the literature showed evidence of negative impacts in terms of direct costs (Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk, 2014), with more severe disasters causing the highest damage and increasing the likelihood of long-term and/or negative consequences (Boustan et al., 2017; Kousky, 2014).

There is also evidence of distributional effects. Economic and human losses shown to be more pronounced in poorer countries (Schumacher and Strobl, 2011), and institutional factors and educational attainment levels found to be important determinants that influence resilience and recovery (Kousky, 2014; Felbermayra and Gr{\"o}schl, 2014). Economic diversity also matters. Relying on a single economic sector for income heightens community vulnerability and elongates disaster recovery time compared to diversified economies (Cutter et al., 2008). The type and interlinkages of economic sectors also play a significant role. Due to its land-intensive nature, the agricultural sector is often adversely affected (FAO, 2015). Locally, a study of major Victorian bushfires found that industries most susceptible to direct or indirect impacts are the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and retail trade (Stephenson, 2010). Conversely, the construction sector may experience a boom in the immediate aftermath of the disaster as households redirect expenditure towards rebuilding that they otherwise would have deferred, only to experience a lull in the next few years once that expenditure subsides (Kousky, 2014). Even with a diversified economy structure, the interdependence of sectors can have knock-on effects (Yu et al., 2014). Thus, industries more heavily reliant on inputs from the agricultural sector are likely to experience adverse effects to their production.

While these broader examinations are useful, aggregated numbers can mask or hide very large distributive impacts, as the typical instruments used (GDP and aggregated consumption) can be misleading measures of actual welfare losses (Hallegatte S, 2014). What is missing is a systematic understanding of how these broader economic impacts of natural disasters translate to the individual level vis-{\`a}-vis income effects; how long these effects persist; and which individuals within the community bear the brunt of these costs. Indeed, regardless of a country{\textquoteright}s economic development, a lower socioeconomic status has been consistently associated with greater post-disaster hardship (Norris et al., 2002), with the poor suffering significant disaster losses due to lower financial capacity and limited access to public and private (e.g. insurance) recovery assets (Blaikie et al. 1994; Gladwin and Peacock 1997). For example, while storm damage from Hurricane Katrina was uniform across demographic groups, it was lower income individuals who were less likely to have evacuated or own cover for flood insurance (Masozera et al. 2007). Many other known vulnerabilities to disasters, such as being female, old age, or with lower educational attainment (McKenzie and Canterford, 2016), are highly correlated or interdependent with income. The link between income and disasters also extends to mental health outcomes: In the case of bushfires, the longevity of disruptions to income post-disaster has been shown to materially affect the mental health of those affected by bushfires (Gibbs et al., 2016). Thus quantifying the effects of disasters based on these social and economic dimensions can help policymakers better target and evaluate disaster mitigation recovery programs.\ 

To that end, our research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, of various types (fires, flood and cyclone), scales (small, large), and locational settings (regional, metropolitan) on the disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through their income stream). It disaggregates these impacts on individuals based on who they are (their demographic attributes), if they work (unemployed, employed), how much they work (part-time, full-time) and the industries they work for.

This report investigates the income effects of the 2009 Toodyay bushfire on the income trajectory of residents of Toodyay {\textendash} a small regional town in Western Australia with a population of 4,450 around the time of the bushfire. The fire conditions were some of the worst seen in Western Australia at the time, and burnt around 2,900 hectares, the equivalent of 2\% of the Shire of Toodyay{\textquoteright}s total area. While no casualties were reported, the total cost of damages was estimated at $100 million (FESA, 2010b).

From a policy perspective, this report contributes to a greater understanding of the potential economic effects of natural disasters on individuals and communities living in small regional towns within Australia (FIGURE 1). Toodyay is fairly typical of such small, regional Australian towns, having an ageing population within the 1,000{\textendash}4,999 population range, and an economy historically linked to agriculture, mining and manufacturing; industries which are known to be sensitive to natural disasters (Ulubasoglu et al., 2019). Such towns (~1,700 in 2016) form 9.7\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population and are mostly concentrated around Australia{\textquoteright}s eastern seaboard (ABS, 2018).

For Western Australia in particular, it is expected that agricultural businesses in currently marginal areas, such as the Wheatbelt region (in which Toodyay is located) are most at risk from climate change (Sudmeyer et al., 2016), and so deserve particular attention when considering disaster resilience in the state.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disasters, economic resilience, regional communities, Toodyay}, issn = {589}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6994, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on individual income}, number = {580}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In an era when the reality of climate change is creating an uncertain future, it is imperative to consider the lasting impact this will have on Australia, which is historically prone to natural disasters. The increased possibility of more frequent and intense natural disasters present a number of issues for Australians, ranging from the impact on vulnerable communities to broader economic consequences.

In an effort to tackle this global phenomenon at a local level, we must turn our attention towards not only the actions required to support our businesses and communities but also to ensuring Australia is ready to adapt and become more economically disaster resilient in an ever changing environment. The urgency and delicacy of the matter is exacerbated when we consider that the average annual total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017) and that fiscal constraints will be imposed on government disaster expenditure due to Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

When a natural disaster strikes, the damages incurred are readily assessable in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. While this information is vital to the economic dimension of disaster resilience policy, it provides little integrity to analysing the direct impact such disasters have on the Australian people and, more specifically, communities and workforces that are more vulnerable to disaster.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Black Saturday Bushfires on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study explores the impact of the Black Saturday bushfires (BSBs) on the income trajectory of individuals in the labour force and residents of the disaster-hit Statistical Area-2s (SA2s). These areas are depicted in red and orange in FIGURE 1.

The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were some of the worst bushfire conditions ever recorded globally; equivalent to 1500 of the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima going off (SMH, 2009). One hundred and seventy-three people died; over 2,100 houses and 3,500 structures were destroyed, and thousands more suffered damage (Parliament of Victoria, 2010). The total area destroyed was around 400,000 hectares (CFA, 2009). The toll was estimated to be $3.1 billion in tangible damages and $3.9 billion in intangible costs (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a bushfire on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities at very fine units.

The report makes a unique assessment of economic resilience at an individual level (measured through changes in the income stream), and explores the effects of disaster-induced economic shocks transmitted to individuals through income-earning channels. In turn, this provides a deeper understanding of how income costs of disasters are borne by different areas of the workforce and assists policymakers in understanding the socioeconomics of natural disasters to better formulate public policies.

In an effort to assist policymakers contextualise our assessment at a broader social and economic level, this report amplifies the socioeconomic and disaster-resilience profiles of the disaster hit SA2s.

The findings of the report provide a distinctive variation from research to date by focusing on the way disasters such as the BSB affect individuals within a particular workforce and community, as well as their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

The report attempts to pinpoint the income effects observed in the BSB by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of individuals living in the disaster-hit SA2s (treatment group) with those neighbouring SA2s that were not directly hit by the bushfires (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group that provides us with the income path that would have occurred for disaster-hit residents that were reported to be in the labour force in 2006, had the bushfires not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the bushfires. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD)[1], which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the bushfire{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}16.

Our framework was developed to capture income effects following the bushfires. Data limitations impede our ability to confirm some of the assumptions of our modelling approach, but we have taken a number of steps to alleviate the likely impact of these limitations on the reliability of our findings.

Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, our report is the first one utilizing three ABS Censuses to explore income effects of bushfires more comprehensively. Our findings offer compelling insights on how disasters like the BSB affect local economies, individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, disaster resilience, economic resilience, income}, issn = {580}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Yasin Onder} } @article {bnh-6989, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on individual income: a case study on the Brisbane River catchment area}, number = {577}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards like bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we create the right environment for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires some deep thinking about the collective actions needed to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy to become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017),[1] and the fiscal constraints that will increasingly be imposed on government disaster expenditure by Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study on the Brisbane River Catchment Area report explores the impact of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on the income trajectory of employed residents of the four Brisbane River Catchment Area (BRCA) local government areas (LGAs) depicted in Figure 1.

The Queensland Floods 2010-11 remain one of Australia{\textquoteright}s costliest flooding events, causing an estimated $6.7 billion in tangible damages, with an overall cost of $14.1 billion (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a riverine-flooding in an Australian metropolitan economy on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities and post-disaster government assistance.

By focusing on individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through changes in their income stream), the report explores how disaster-induced economic shocks can be transmitted to individuals vis-{\`a}-vis income-earning channels, and offers a greater understanding of how indirect costs of disasters are borne by different segments of the workforce. Such costs are currently less known compared to direct damages reported in the immediate aftermath of disasters.

By examining the economic dimension of disaster resilience at the individual level, our research helps policymakers better understand the socioeconomics of natural disasters and formulate public policies in a sustainable way that better distributes scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and industries of employment that are more sensitive to disasters.

Recognising the profound and long-lasting psychosocial impacts of the floods, the report outlines the socioeconomic and disaster resilience profiles of the BRCA LGAs, and provides additional information to contextualise our assessment so that policymakers can holistically interpret our findings, within the broader social and economic conditions arising from the floods.\ 

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the BRCA LGAs is challenging. The report attempts to pinpoint observed income effects to the Queensland Floods 2010-11 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares income changes of individuals living in the BRCA LGAs (treatment group) with those living in comparable zones in Australia (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for BRCA LGA employed residents had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arisfrom the floods. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006-11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006-16.

While we develop the right modelling framework to capture income effects arising from the floods, data limitations have hampered our ability to statistically confirm that our control group is comparable to the BRCA LGA sample. The key implication is that our findings are not causal but correlational.

Nevertheless, our report{\textquoteright}s findings offer new and compelling insights on how disasters like the Queensland Floods 2010-11 interact with existing economic conditions and workforce compositions to affect individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {case study, disasters, economic resilience, Floods}, issn = {577}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-7006, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the income effects of the Cyclone Oswald 2013 on small business owners}, number = {581}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

"With five events in two years and the recently released Climate Commission Report that indicates our region can expect higher risk of heavy rainfall, there is a responsibility to at least identify the real cost to the community of flood events"\  {\textendash} Mark Pitt, CEO, North Burnett Regional Council (2013)

Small businesses are regarded as the backbone of Australia{\textquoteright}s economy, forming up to 98\% of Australian businesses and employing around 44\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s private sector workforce (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018). In some sectors like agriculture and construction, small businesses represent over 70\% of all businesses (Gilfillan, 2018).

Beyond employment, small businesses are integral to the social fabric of their communities, supporting local initiatives and providing important physical places for community members to socialise and engage with each other. This is especially true for regional areas with tight-knit communities.

Despite their economic importance, little empirical research has been done to understand the impact of natural disasters[1] on small businesses, and the efficacy of government assistance programs in promoting their recovery.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The income effects of Cyclone Oswald 2013 on Small Business Owners {\textendash} a case study on the Burnett River Catchment Area report explores the impact of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald 2013 on the incomes of small business owners residing in the four Burnett River Catchment local government areas (LGAs) depicted in FIGURE 1.

From 22 to 29 January 2013, Category 1 ex-tropical Cyclone Oswald moved across parts of Queensland and New South Wales, causing severe storms, flooding and tornadoes. The associated flooding and extreme weather events were declared a disaster in 53 Queensland LGAs, with the most devastating felt in the Bundaberg and North Burnett regions, damaging key infrastructure including sewerage systems and economically important assets including ports and road networks relied on by agricultural and manufacturing enterprises in the area. The record flooding in Bundaberg forced the evacuation of over 7,500 residents and damaged over 2,000 homes.

Thus, the flooding events associated with Cyclone Oswald that occurred in this region present a unique opportunity to causally investigate the impacts of a major disaster on small businesses in a regional community with an important agricultural base.

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the Burnett River catchment LGAs is challenging. The report pinpoints the income effects of Cyclone Oswald 2013 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of small business owners living in the Burnett River Catchment LGAs (treatment group) with those living in the comparable Richmond Valley LGAs in New South Wales (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for the Burnett small business owners had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the associated flooding events.\ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts. Our results are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2011); and are compared to our control group. As the Census date allow us to explore the effects up to three years post Cyclone Oswald, we define our 2011-2016 results as medium-term results.

}, keywords = {cyclone, disasters, economic resilience, income effects, small businesses}, issn = {581}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6810, title = {Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability - Annual Report 2019}, number = {558}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Management Sector (EMS) is a diverse and complex sector whose key purpose is the protection of life and property by implementing {\textquoteleft}a range of measures to manage risks to communities and environments{\textquoteright} (Emergency Management Australia, 1998, p39). Their scope of activities spans the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) spectrum and requires a range of activities that contribute to the wellbeing of communities.

The context in which many of these organisations operate is changing due to:

As these drivers are dynamic and systemic, they are changing the focus of EMS activities from shorter-term tactical approaches across the PPRR spectrum, to longer-term strategic approaches that focus on future outcomes. These drivers are also driving the need to innovate across the EMS and develop new services that aim to increase resilience of both the organisations themselves and the community. This is fundamentally changing the nature of the relationship EMS has with the community from delivering a service to them to working with them. (Young et al. 2018). There is also a recognition that emergency services need to better reflect the communities they work to serve (NEMC 2011) to achieve this outcome. Effective diversity and inclusion are central to this agenda.

Currently, there are {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} in the EMS (AFAC 2016). There is however, a growing awareness that there are a number of benefits that can result from increasing diversity in organisations. However, effective implementation is complex due to:

If EMS organisations are to capitalise on the emerging opportunities and fulfil their future potential in this area, they will need to develop new ways of thinking and working. Diversity is not new to EMS organisations and there are existing strengths and knowledge that can be built upon. Understanding what is effective, and why and how this agenda can be progressed, is critical to achieving future outcomes.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {558}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-7468, title = {Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability {\textendash} annual report 2019{\textendash}2020}, number = {623}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability{\textquoteright} is a three-year project commissioned by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, which commenced in July 2017 and has just completed its third year of exploration. It has been a challenging year in terms of delivery, and the project has had to adjust its research plan to accommodate the unprecedented bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have impacted the university and the stakeholder organisations. As a result, the project will now deliver the final outputs for the project in the second half of 2020.

During the third phase, we have focused our activities around consolidating key findings in the organisational stream and testing these in another industry to look for commonalities and points of divergence. New needs that emerged from the second year review highlight the necessity for further indepth review in relation to the economic and community areas. Activities have continued with a case study approach and three reports have been completed.

Key areas of focus for this phase have been as follows:

Key findings from this phase of the research are as follows:

Stakeholder engagement has been limited during this phase, as it was put on hold between November 2019 and April 2020. Where possible, we have maintained contact through individual interactions. We have also had a reduced level of outreach such as presentations due to the cancellation of a number of conferences, however the project team was involved in three presentations at the 2019 AFAC conference.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {623}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-7227, title = {Diversity and inclusion framework for emergency management policy and practice}, number = {602}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Management Sector (EMS) is made up of diverse organisations, and its scope of activity spans the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) spectrum for a wide variety of hazards. This requires an array of activities that contribute to the safety and wellbeing of communities and those within their organisations. The EMS is also undergoing dynamic change, of which human diversity is one key element. The sector has recognised that it needs to better reflect the communities it works with, and that it has {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, COAG, 2011). Inclusion is seen as an essential part of this process, but policy, management and practice need further development if the sector is to achieve functioning inclusive organisations who reflect the diverse communities they serve.

Diversity and inclusion (D\&I) are different but deeply entwined. Diversity can be seen as a variety of people who have different and unique characteristics. This difference can be determined by aspects such as their cultural or social background, their age, the way they think, their physical attributes or their gender or a combination of these. Increasing diversity creates a different dynamic, and inclusion is the action that is undertaken to manage this change. It is also the tool that ensures that the increased diversity is effective in serving the organisational or community needs, and does not create a risk for the community or the organisation.\ 

Although the nature and measurement of diversity is being better recognised and understood, the management and measurement of inclusion is still evolving. This is an area of innovation where not everything will work. New approaches need to be developed and adapted to suit the myriad of different contexts throughout the sector. This has resulted in numerous D\&I programs at sectoral and organisational levels. However, the effectiveness of past and present programs, and what constitutes good management and measurement, is still emerging (Young et al., 2018).\ \ 

There is often tension between the core work of EMS organisations, as the development of D\&I is often seen as a secondary activity that is a cost to the workforce rather than an investment in the future workforce. This tension has been exacerbated by deeply entrenched cultural and institutional factors. This framework aims to provide a basis for practitioners to address these issues through a strength-based approach, which builds upon current practice and expertise in the sector.\ 

The framework has been developed in response to needs that were identified in collaboration with practitioners across the sector, which included:

The framework has been developed, tested and refined in collaboration with emergency management experts, and draws on the following reports from the project:

Diversity and inclusion is not a simple problem with easy solutions. It is a dynamic situation that requires ongoing management. This means that standard notions of success and failure can be problematic, which is why this framework focuses on what has been found to be effective.\ 

As the EMS is diverse in terms of organisational composition, capability and context, what is possible and {\textquoteleft}doable{\textquoteright} will be different for each organisation. To account for this, this framework is deliberately not prescriptive. Its aim is to support and guide practitioners to develop and integrate D\&I practice, so that it becomes accepted as part of the day-to-day activities and {\textquoteleft}how things are done{\textquoteright}.\ 

This framework will be supported by two further documents that will focus on management and measurement practices.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Emergency management, framework, Policy, practice}, issn = {602}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-8140, title = {Diversity and inclusion: towards a better understanding of management and measurement - policy paper}, number = {696}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Having effective diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) can improve their internal\ performance, and contribute to organisational and community capacities to manage disaster risk and resilience building. A\ diverse workforce provides a broad range of perspectives, experiences and skills. An inclusively-managed diverse workforce\ can support better decision making. It can also support better management of the increasingly unfamiliar risks that\ society is experiencing. Inclusion is also central to building productive working relationships and trust with the community. However, the benefits of D\&I are poorly understood, and are often overlooked because they are hard to measure and\ account for.

This paper summarises the main concepts, findings and the framework that has been developed to support more effective\ management and measurement of D\&I in EMOs.

Key findings in relation to D\&I in the emergency management sector (EMS) are:

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, management, measurement, strength}, issn = {696}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-6754, title = {Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. \>500 m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, line scan, spot fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19124}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF19124}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and Jason J. Sharples and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7811, title = {Driving into floodwater: using data from emergency responders to inform workplace safety policy and practice}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {26-34}, abstract = {

Since 2001, approximately 45 per cent of all flood fatalities in Australia are attributed to people entering floodwater in motor vehicles. This behaviour is considered high-risk and avoidable. However, for emergency services personnel performing their duties, there may be additional pressure to take on such risks. In Victoria, the Victoria State Emergency Service (VICSES) is the control agency for floods and storms and its personnel encounter floodwater frequently. At an organisational level, good workplace health and safety practices are fundamental and duty of care is of paramount importance. VICSES personnel are discouraged from driving through floodwater; an exception being when responding to life-threatening situations. Doing so exposes staff to personal harm and driving through floodwater in work vehicles can result in vehicle and equipment damage. There is also the potential for VICSES reputation damage if people observe VICSES personnel driving into floodwaters and not heeding safety advice to {\textquoteright}never drive (walk, or ride) through floodwater{\textquoteright}. This raises public safety concerns if people take similar risks. This paper presents findings from a larger study into the circumstances in which SES personnel drive through floodwater in SES or private vehicles. Outcomes from this research will inform policy, practice and training to improve safety, keep staff and equipment safe and model good practice in communities.

}, keywords = {data, Driving, emergency responders, floodwater, Policy, practice, workplace safety}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-driving-into-floodwater-using-data-from-emergency-responders-to-inform-workplace-safety-policy-and-practice/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Tim Wiebusch and Benjamin Beccari and Katharine Haynes and Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-6697, title = {Duty or safety? Exploring emergency service personnel{\textquoteright}s perceptions of risk and decision-making when driving through floodwater}, journal = {Progress in Disaster Science}, volume = {5}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

Vehicle-related flood fatalities and rescues due to driving through floodwater are a significant emergency management issue for emergency services. To reduce fatalities, injuries, and costs associated with this risky driving behaviour it is essential to develop strategies to stop or reduce the incidence of people driving through floodwater. In Australia, people are told not to enter floodwater {\textendash} on foot or in vehicles {\textendash} with the phrase {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright} widely used in official messaging. As first responders responsible for floods, storms and tsunamis, Australian State Emergency Service (SES) personnel are working in flood conditions regularly and are considered an occupationally {\textquoteleft}at-risk{\textquoteright} group for driving through floodwater. Although SES agencies across states and territories in Australia are independently led, they typically promote policies of not entering floodwater to their personnel. Such policies are important for meeting duty of care obligations to employees, for protection of assets (vehicles and equipment), and for upholding organisational reputation (leading by example). This study was undertaken to explore the behaviour of driving through floodwater by SES personnel. The study explored the characteristics of those who have and have not driven through floodwater, and then used detailed situations in which SES personnel entered floodwater in vehicles to analyse their perception of risks, the conditions and contexts in which they entered floodwater, and to identify what influenced their decision to enter.

Following an earlier systematic literature review, a detailed online questionnaire was developed and administered to SES personnel from a single agency. Data from 670 respondents indicated that 54.8\% had driven through floodwater in the previous two years, and a number of differences in the profile of those who had/had not driven through floodwater were identified. Those more likely to have driven through floodwater included males, volunteer personnel with longer lengths of service, those doing more driving hours per week, those deployed to work in flood conditions, and those with current flood rescue qualifications. The location type, water depth, and water velocity were conditions that contributed more to perception of risk at the time personnel drove through the floodwater. Detailed information about an experience of entering floodwater was obtained from 201 respondents who had driven through floodwater in SES vehicles, and six factors relating to the decision to drive through floodwater were extracted. {\textquoteleft}Organisational training and safety{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}External locus of control{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Absence of risk signals{\textquoteright} were identified as having the greatest influence on risk perception leading to decisions to drive through floodwater. The findings of the study have a number of practical implications for the improvement of occupational safety management; such as upgrading risk assessments strategies, reviewing workplace health and safety policies, enhancing training, increasing skills and knowledge of emergency services personnel about floodwater hazard situations, and improving internal flood risk communication.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Driving, emergency services, floodwater, Occupational safety, Risk perception}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100068}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061720300053?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Gemma Hope and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-7380, title = {An early exploration of the use of the Microsoft Azure Kinect for estimation of urban tree Diameter at Breast Height}, journal = {Remote Sensing Letters}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, pages = {963-972}, abstract = {
Forest and urban tree inventory measurements are increasingly adopting Remote Sensing (RS) techniques due to the accurate and rapid estimates available compared to conventional methods. The focus of this study is to assess the accuracy and potential application of the Microsoft Azure Kinect {\textendash} a lightweight depth sensor {\textendash} for outdoor measurement of tree stem Diameter at Breast Height (DBH). Individual urban trees (n\ =\ 51) were recorded from one viewing angle at a distance of 1 m to 5 m away using the various Field of View (FOV) settings on the depth sensor, from which resultant point clouds provided DBH estimates using a circle-fitting approach. The optimal capture method was observed at a distance of 2 m using the binned Near Field of View (NFOV) setting. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of DBH using this method was 8.43 cm; however, after removing trees with irregular or non-circular stems, this improved to 3.53 cm. Variations in ambient light were observed to have little effect on DBH estimates. The results of this study suggest when in an outdoor environment, the Azure Kinect should be used at a distance no greater than 3 m away, using the binned NFOV sensor setting, for DBH estimates.
}, keywords = {DBH, remote sensing, trees}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2020.1802528}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2150704X.2020.1802528}, author = {James McGlade and Luke Wallace and Bryan Hally and Andrew White and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-7186, title = {Earthquake mitigation of WA regional towns: York case study - final report}, number = {596}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was only fully recognised for Australian building design in the early 1990{\textquoteright}s following the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989. This has resulted in a significant legacy of Australian buildings that are inherently more vulnerable to low to moderate earthquake generated ground motion. Having accessible knowledge of the most effective measures to retrofit older masonry buildings will enable and encourage the strengthening of buildings resulting in more resilient communities.

Western Australia has a region of elevated seismicity inland from Perth where there are located several older regional towns having a predominance of older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings. In 1968 the town of Meckering was devastated by an earthquake (Gordon et al, 1980), which destroyed the town{\textquoteright}s URM building stock and damaged URM buildings in other neighbouring towns. The town of York, situated approximately 37km from the epicentre was also significantly damaged (Everingham et al, 1982). The combination of high hazard and vulnerability in this region points to a need for informed mitigation measures.

This project entailed undertaking a mitigation implementation study of York, Western Australia{\textquoteright}s oldest inland town, which has many valuable historical buildings that are vulnerable to damage by a large earthquake. This utilisation project sits beneath and draws upon the vulnerability and economic modelling research outcomes of the BNHCRC project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. Utilising the outcomes of the project a range of mitigation strategies have been virtually applied to the town{\textquoteright}s URM buildings. This has enabled an assessment of the effectiveness of these interventions on community risk and emergency management (EM) logistics in the context of rare, but credible, earthquakes.

In this report the research and its outcomes are presented and discussed. Further, recommendations are made for future retrofit strategy implementation in York and more broadly in Western Australia. In particular, a new NDRP project is described that will build upon this BNHCRC project in testing the application of the measures in actual retrofit work undertaken in York. This BNHCRC project has been led by the University of Adelaide (UoA) with project partner Geoscience Australia (GA). The end users are the Shire of York and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) with valuable contributions made by the WA Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage. Through the workshop activity reported there have also been valuable guidance from Engineering Heritage, WA, and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG).

}, keywords = {earthquake, mitigation, regional towns, york}, issn = {596}, author = {Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Michael Griffith and Mark Edwards and Neil Corby and Itismita Mohanty and Jaroslav Vaculik and Trevor Allen} } @article {bnh-6744, title = {East Coast Low extreme weather scenario}, number = {548}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fictional scenario developed for use at\ the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference, developed in\ partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology,\ Geoscience Australia and Risk Frontiers. This\ scenario should be read in conjunction with\ the report on the 12th Australasian Natural\ Hazards Management Conference, Cascading\ extreme weather beyond our experience: are\ we ready?, published by the Bushfire and\ Natural Hazards CRC.

This scenario has been developed for the 12th\ Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference.\ It is based on climate, environment and weather events\ that are plausible. The combination of events, locations,\ areas of impact and human behavior are not based on\ any real event.

As you see what unfolds during the scenario, we ask you\ to focus on the nature and scale of the events that are\ unfolding, and the connections between them. And to\ begin thinking {\textquoteleft}what could we do to reduce, minimise or\ avoid the short and long-term impacts?{\textquoteright}

The hypothetical event is based in New South Wales,\ but can, and should, be considered in the context of any\ equivalent location across Australia or New Zealand.\ 

The impacts capture a range of likely outcomes to\ illustrate the extent of the effects of the weather\ scenario, but do not attempt to catalogue all of the\ impacts and their extent.

}, keywords = {east coast low, extreme weather, Planning, scenario}, issn = {548}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-7753, title = {Economic analysis of natural hazard mitigation using the Quick Economic Analysis Tool}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {48-55}, abstract = {

An effective way to reduce the impacts of natural hazards on communities is by mitigating the risks. However, mitigation requires time and resources, which are usually limited. To use resources effectively, planners and managers are best prepared when they know their options and which of these options provides the best value for money. When there is not enough information, or an analysis would take several months or years to complete, having access to quick economic analyses in weeks rather than months would be very useful. This paper describes a Quick Economic Analysis Tool, developed at the University of Western Australia, to conduct quick analyses. A case study is used of two prescribed burn annual rates and are compared with results of an in-depth analysis of the application of different prescribed burn annual rates over the long-term that took several years to complete. The results from the quick analysis, despite a few differences, were comparable to results from an in-depth analysis and provided enough information to determine the value for money that each prescribed burn annual rate generated. This study showed that the quick analysis tool would allow fire managers to identify options worthy of business cases and to capture the information needed to increase confidence in their decisions.

}, keywords = {economic analysis, economics, Natural hazards, Prescribed burning, risk mitigation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-economic-analysis-of-natural-hazard-mitigation-using-the-quick-economic-analysis-tool/}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers} } @article {bnh-6906, title = {The economic benefits of the Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) Program: Fire and Rescue New South Wales}, number = {567}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main purpose of the Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) was to reduce the barriers to Indigenous employment. It has also been seen as a way of promoting greater engagement with Indigenous communities, improving fire safety within these communities and learning from traditional knowledge about fire management.

This study details the costs and benefits (both tangible and intangible) of the program. It estimates these by modelling different benefit and cost components. It finds the total benefits of the program to be around $8 million and estimates a benefit-cost ratio of 20, meaning that for every dollar invested in the program, the benefits to the community are approximately 20 times the amount invested. The intangible benefits are gleaned from a number of other sources, such as interviews with people involved with the program and media reports. The estimates of costs are largely based on data provided by Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW).

Indigenous Australians suffer from severe disadvantage on several levels, including employment opportunities, poor health, and limited education, all of which further constrain their employment prospects. Data from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS) conducted by the ABS (2016), demonstrates this disadvantage by comparing each of these variables for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. For example, the unemployment rate among Indigenous Australians is 20.6 per cent compared to 6 per cent among non-Indigenous Australians, and only 25.7 per cent of Indigenous Australians have completed Year 12 or equivalent compared to 55.2 per cent of non-Indigenous Australians. An Australian Institute of Health and Welfare study (AIHW 2011) suggested that the total burden of disease for Indigenous Australians was 429.4 DALYs per 1000 compared to 185 per 1000 for non-Indigenous Australians.

The IFARES was initiated in 2013 by FRNSW to help breakdown longstanding barriers to Indigenous recruitment to the fire services. Data from IFARES demonstrates the success of the program, where registrations have increased from 18 in 2014 to 235 in 2016. Overall, 49 fire fighters have been employed from the program and 1 into administration.

This study modelled the benefits of the program by taking into consideration: the reduced unemployment benefits arising from the program; working life returns after leaving the program; health benefits to the recruited firefighters; and the community health benefits arising from graduates of the course brought to their communities by increasing their awareness of health issues and making healthier choices. The study then estimated the benefit-cost ratio by taking account of the costs of the program.

Interviews with people involved in the program and media reports have helped identify some of the intangible benefits of the program. These included improving the self-confidence of people (particularly females) in Indigenous communities, whose members became fire fighters. Increasing the diversity of the fire services has led to greater social cohesion and improved engagement of the fire services with Indigenous communities, which in turn has led to greater fire safety. The Indigenous contingent of the fire services has also contributed to the service by bringing in unique skills through their understanding of the country.

}, keywords = {benefits, economy, fire and rescue, indigenous}, issn = {567}, author = {Bruce Rasmussen and Neelam Maharaj} } @article {bnh-6997, title = {The effect of firefighter-delivered fire safety education on young people who misuse fire}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, abstract = {

Youth misuse of fire is a multifaceted, complex and dangerous phenomenon that is difficult to predict and detect. Reduction relies heavily on prevention programs operated by, or in conjunction with, fire services. Youth Justice Conferencing with firefighter involvement is a tertiary prevention program implemented in New South Wales, Australia, by Juvenile Justice New South Wales and Fire and Rescue New South Wales for young people who have committed a fire-related offence. The aim of this project was to evaluate this program to ascertain whether, and if so how, firefighter-delivered fire safety education in the context of conferencing reduced the risk of misuse of fire. The evaluation involved quantitative analysis of 10 years{\textquoteright} worth of conferencing record and recidivism data and qualitative analysis of interviews conducted with program practitioners. Findings revealed that firefighter-delivered fire safety education in the context of conferencing contributed to a reduction in general reoffending whilst providing an avenue through which firefighters could deliver fire safety education to members of the community who were at-risk. These findings have implications for the tertiary prevention of youth misuse of fire.

}, keywords = {Arson, Fire prevention, Fire safety education, Fire service, firefighter, Juvenile justice, Youth justice conferencing, youth misuse of fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2020.103156}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0379711220302423?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-6822, title = {Effect of relative humidity on grassfire propagation}, number = {561}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The relative humidity of air is directly related to fuel moisture. Fuel moisture is often considered as the index of flammability in the context of bushfires. Variation of relative humidity and fuel moisture is considered to have a significant effect on the rate of spread of grassfire propagation and fire intensity. In this study, two sets of grassfire simulations have been conducted: one set with 0.21m grass and another set with 0.175m grass. For both sets the ambient temperature was kept constant while the relative humidity and fuel moisture were varied, with fuel moisture deduced from the McArthur MKIII-V GFDI model. A lower relative humidity was observed to lead to higher fire intensity and a faster rate of spread, which are intuitively expected. Froude number analysis showed that relative humidity can lead to change in the fire propagation mode (wind driven vs buoyancy driven), but the greater factor appears to be grass height (fuel load).

}, keywords = {grassfire, modelling, propagation, relative humidity}, issn = {561}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Tehmina Khan and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-7343, title = {Effect of weather forecast errors on fire growth model projections}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, abstract = {

Fire management agencies use fire behaviour simulation tools to predict the potential spread of a fire in both risk planning and operationally during wildfires. These models are generally based on underlying empirical or quasi-empirical relations and rarely are uncertainties considered. Little attention has been given to the quality of the input data used during operational fire predictions. We examined the extent to which error in weather forecasts can affect fire simulation results. The study was conducted using data representing the State of Victoria in south-eastern Australia, including grassland and forest conditions. Two fire simulator software packages were used to compare fire growth under observed and forecast weather. We found that error in the weather forecast data significantly altered the predicted size and location of fires. Large errors in wind speed and temperature resulted in an overprediction of fire size, whereas large errors in wind direction resulted in an increased spatial error in the fire{\textquoteright}s location. As the fire weather intensified, fire predictions using forecast weather under predicted fire size, potentially resulting in greater risks to the community. These results highlight the importance of on-ground intelligence during wildfires and the use of ensembles to improve operational fire predictions.

}, keywords = {Bayesian Network, fire prediction, meteorological forecast, sensitivity, simulation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19199}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf19199}, author = {Trent Penman and Dan Ababei and Jane Cawson and Brett Cirulis and Thomas Duff and Swedosh, W and James Hilton} } @article {bnh-7240, title = {Effects of the January 2020 bushfires on estuarine systems of Kangaroo Island: post event field data collection}, number = {603}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2020 summer bushfires on Kangaroo Island were the largest in the Island{\textquoteright}s recorded history, with over 200,000 hectares and more than 40 \% of the island burnt (DEW, 2020). The impacts of these bushfires will not be confined to the terrestrial landscape and are likely to have substantial detrimental impacts on the island{\textquoteright}s aquatic systems, particularly after rainfall.

Post-fire exposed soils are highly erodible, and therefore intense precipitation events or seasonal rainfall can result in the runoff of nutrients and ash enriched sediments, debris and other products of combustion into waterways. These runoff events, allied to heavy sedimentation, can lead to deteriorating water quality, potentially triggering eutrophication, low oxygen events, and compromise aquatic fauna. In addition, contaminants, including trace elements and products of combustion such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can also enter waterways (Olivella et al 2006, Shakesby and Doerr, 2006, Smith et al 2011, Sequeira et al 2020).

One area of concern in Kangaroo Island are the estuarine systems downstream or adjacent to burnt areas. Despite the ecological importance of estuarine environments and the multiple ecosystem functions they provide (including nursery grounds for juvenile fish), the impacts of bushfires in estuaries are yet to be investigated. Furthermore, because estuarine systems in Kangaroo island are not permanently open to the sea, the impacts of accumulated soot, ash and sediment channelled into estuaries could be exacerbated, and have the potential to disrupt complex ecological and biogeochemical cycles, increase contaminant loadings and result in pervasive effects for local fish communities. Ultimately, there are substantial knowledge gaps in our understanding of water quality impacts and mobilisation of heavy metals and isotopes in the aftermath of bushfires in estuaries, and these add to the lack of understanding of the ecology and geochemistry of estuaries in South Australia.

In this context, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, via the their quick response funding, provided financial support for travel-related expenses to undertake surveys on Kangaroo Island in estuaries within areas directly affected by this unprecedented bushfire season, and control sites outside these areas. These sampling events are part of broader research where in the long term, we aim to evaluate the impacts of bushfires on estuarine water quality and on estuarine fish, as well as trace the mobilisation and fluxes of contaminants released by bushfires into estuarine systems.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, data collection, estuarine system, kangaroo island}, issn = {603}, author = {Patrick Reis-Santos and Bronwyn Gillanders} } @article {bnh-7005, title = {Emergency management communication: The paradox of the positive in public communication for preparedness}, journal = {Public Relations Review}, volume = {46}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, abstract = {

Government emergency management agencies use public communication to inform and educate around risks such as floods, fires, storms, and earthquakes with the aim to help communities understand how to prepare for these emergency events. This study of government communication relating to emergency management preparedness examines an Australian context to understand the types of messages preparing community members for natural hazards. Findings suggest that agencies employ a two-track approach combining warranting and engagement messages. Yet a deeper look at the messages suggests a {\textquotedblleft}paradox of the positive{\textquotedblright} that overemphasizes the capacity of local agencies to respond to crises and underemphasizes citizen shared responsibility. Implications for the paradox of the positive in other national contexts and public relations theory building are also discussed.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency, natural hazard, Paradox of the positive, preparation, Public communication}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubrev.2020.101903}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S036381112030028X}, author = {Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor and Barbara Ryan} } @article {bnh-7382, title = {Emergency powers: Civil liberties in the face of disaster}, journal = {Bulletin (Law Society of South Australia)}, volume = {42}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, pages = {6-8}, abstract = {

The 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic has made clear the fragile nature of many of the liberties we take for granted. This article will briefly review what we know about the power of government to impose restrictions during a public health emergency and then compare and contrast the use of emergency during more traditional emergencies such as fire and flood. I argue that traditional emergency managers should not be tempted to try and copy the use of directions backed with the threat of force and penalties to ensure compliance but should, instead, continue to focus on community education and building resilience.

}, keywords = {civil liberties, disaster response, emergency power}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=396081088662009;res=IELHSS}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-6985, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering: annual report 2018-19}, number = {574}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project is being jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). It is the only core project in the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering that is in active research phase. The goal of this cluster is to improve the long-term sustainability of the volunteer workforce, and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project has two broad aims, each of which is addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complements\ other active BNHCRC research projects, especially in the Emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects). It also draws from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University and the BNHCRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University.\ 

This Annual Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in the 2018-2019 financial year. This was the second year of the project. The research phase of the project is due to end in June 2020.

}, keywords = {annual report, emergency volunteering, sustainable}, issn = {574}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Tarn Kruger and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-7029, title = {Estimating carbon stocks and biomass in surface fuel layers}, number = {586}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report we describe a simple model that can be used to estimate carbon

(C) stocks in surface fuel layers for C accounting purposes. We used empirical data collected from dry sclerophyll forests from a range of sites in Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. This information was used to develop an easy-to-use tool to improve estimates of C emissions from prescribed burning. Models developed using data from each state have been reported previously {\textendash} here we present an evaluation of a universal model developed using the complete empirical dataset for all sites in all three states, and two separate models ({\textquoteleft}universal{\textquoteright} models) developed using data from all the sites burnt by prescribed fires and nearby unburnt sites.

Samples of the near-surface fuel layer were separated into three fractions: fine fuel (\<9 mm diameter), intact leaves, and twigs and other material such as fruits, flowers and bark. The dry weight and C content of each fraction was determined. To model biomass and C content of surface fuels, a mixture design was used. For each site, the proportion of the total fuel load of each of the three surface litter fractions was used as an independent factor (x1, x2, and x3), and the corresponding total fuel load (t ha-1) or C content (t C ha-1) was used as the dependent factor. A response surface was fitted to the mixture design using a Generalised Blending Mixture model (GBM) and a polynomial equation for each response was generated by running the GBM with varying numbers of terms included in the response surface equation. To determine the best fitting equation, Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used as a measure of the relative quality of the response surface for a given set of data in relation to other model iterations. Data were randomly assigned into an 80:20 split for training and testing of the response surface of the model. Models were also validated against a second set of data collected from high and low productivity forest sites. This additional information improved data spread and, thus, model testing.

The response surfaces fitted to data showed reasonable agreement with the data but the universal model (burnt and unburnt data from all sites combined) tended to be unreliable with both over- and underpredictions depending upon which dataset was being used for testing or validation. Universal models created using data from all burnt or unburnt sites were better than other trained models for predicting of biomass or C content in relation to fire history.

}, keywords = {biomass, carbon stocks, estimates, surface fuel layers}, issn = {586}, author = {Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-7040, title = {Experiences of Police and Emergency Services Employees with Workers{\textquoteright} Compensation Claims for Mental Health Issues}, journal = {Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {1-10}, abstract = {

Purpose\ To assess employees{\textquoteright} experiences of the workers{\textquoteright} compensation claim process for psychological trauma, stress or a mental health condition sustained during the course of work in the police and emergency services sector.\ Methods\ 14,868 employees (69.4\% male, response rate = 22\%) from around Australia participated in\ Answering the Call: the Beyond Blue National Mental Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services, and were asked questions regarding their workers{\textquoteright} compensation experiences for mental health reasons.\ Results\ 14\% of all employees in police and emergency services organisations had made a workers{\textquoteright} compensation claim for mental health reasons. Only 8.2\% of employees making a claim had a positive experience (95\% CI 6.6{\textendash}9.8) while 70.3\% had a poor experience (95\% CI 67.6{\textendash}73.0). Two-thirds of employees who had made a claim reported that the process was unsupportive and stressful, and over half reported that it had an overall negative impact on their recovery. Employees with poor overall support from their managers and those who perceived negative stigma about mental health in their workplace were more likely to report poor experiences.\ Conclusions\ The workers{\textquoteright} compensation process is perceived negatively by most police and emergency services employees who have experience with it, and a majority found that it negatively impacted on their recovery. Ways to reform the system to better support employees experiencing significant functional impairments related to mental health issues should be urgently considered.

}, keywords = {emergency responders, mental health, police, worker{\textquoteright}s compensation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10926-020-09909-8}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10926-020-09909-8}, author = {Michael Kyron and Wavne Rikkers and Patrice O{\textquoteright}Brien and Jennifer Bartlett and David Lawrence} } @article {bnh-7475, title = {Exploring the key drivers of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests using expert-derived conceptual models}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, pages = {1775{\textendash}1798}, abstract = {

Context

Fire behaviour research has largely focused on dry ecosystems that burn frequently, with far less attention on wetter forests. Yet, the impacts of fire in wet forests can be high and therefore understanding the drivers of fire in these\ systems\ is vital.

Objectives

We sought to identify and rank by importance the factors plausibly driving flammability in wet eucalypt forests, and describe relationships between them. In doing so, we formulated a set of research priorities.

Methods

Conceptual models of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests were elicited from 21 fire experts using a combination of elicitation techniques. Forest flammability was defined using fire occurrence and fireline intensity as measures of ignitability and heat release rate, respectively.

Results

There were shared and divergent opinions about the drivers of flammability in wet eucalypt forests. Widely agreed factors were drought, dead fine fuel moisture content, weather and topography. These factors all influence the availability of biomass to burn, albeit their effects and interactions on various dimensions of flammability are poorly understood. Differences between the models related to lesser understood factors (e.g. live and coarse fuel moisture, plant traits, heatwaves) and the links between factors.

Conclusions

By documenting alternative conceptual models, we made shared and divergent opinions explicit about flammability in wet forests. We identified four priority research areas: (1) quantifying drought and fuel moisture thresholds for fire occurrence and intensity, (2) modelling microclimate in dense vegetation and rugged terrain, (3) determining the attributes of live vegetation that influence forest flammability, (4) evaluating fire management strategies.

}, keywords = {Cognitive mapping, Conceptual models, Expert elicitation, Fire behaviour, fire intensity, flammability, Structured decision-making, Structured expert judgement, Wet forest, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, author = {Jane Cawson and Victoria Hemming and Ackland, A and Wendy R. Anderson and David Bowman and Ross Bradstock and Brown, T and Jamie Burton and Geoffrey J. Cary and Thomas Duff and Alex Filkov and Furlaud, James M. and Tim Gazzard and Kilinc, Musa and Petter Nyman and Ross Peacock and Mike Ryan and Jason J. Sharples and Gary J. Sheridan and Tolhurst, K.G. and Tim Wells and Phil Zylstra and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7470, title = {Exploring the soil moisture-live fuel moisture relationship}, number = {624}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Live fuel moisture content is a key factor that determines the flammability of vegetation in ecosystems. Prediction of live fuel moisture content is inherently a very difficult problem since it is modulated by the complex physiological, phenological and ecological processes characteristic of the plant species. Soil moisture is one of the key variables that is known to influence plant water use. Recently, a new live fuel moisture content near-real-time product has been developed for Australia using a radiative transfer model inversion technique on the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer reflectance data. This live fuel moisture content product forms the basis of the Australian Flammability Monitoring System. At the same time, an advanced soil moisture analysis system has been developed by the Bureau of Meteorology recently, called the Joint United Kingdom Land Environment Simulator based Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN). JASMIN can estimate soil moisture at 5 km resolution on a daily timestep for the whole of Australia.

The present study brings together the above two products and explores the live fuel moisture content{\textendash}soil moisture relationship on a national scale. This study will report the preliminary work carried out in understanding live fuel moisture content{\textendash}soil moisture relationship and suggests an approach that may be constructive in advancing the ability to predict live fuel moisture content reliably to support fire management. A preliminary analysis is being conducted over 60 selected locations where JASMIN is found to have good skill. These 60 sites together represent a range of land cover types and climate zones typical of the Australian landscape. All the possible soil moisture profiles that can be derived from the four JASMIN soil layers are used for the analysis. Lag-correlation analysis shows that the strength of the relationship between live fuel moisture content and soil moisture varies from site to site and in general, is moderately strong (median lag-correlation of ~0.5). However, the strength of the relationship varies with vegetation type and also with soil profile depth. At all the sites, soil moisture is found to be an (important) leading indicator of live fuel moisture content. The lag also varies with the location and is found to range from days to months. Except for the forested sites, the top two soil layers exhibit a higher correlation with live fuel moisture content compared to the deeper layers. We develop a simple model to predict live fuel moisture content. The model is found to have good skill with an average R2 of 0.64 over the 60 sites. The normalized root mean square error for the model prediction is found to be less than 25\% in general.

}, keywords = {live fuel moisture, Soil moisture}, issn = {624}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Marta Yebra and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @book {bnh-6841, title = {Feeling the heat: International perspectives on the prevention of wildfire ignition}, series = {Series on Climate Change and Society}, year = {2020}, pages = {319}, publisher = {Vernon Press}, organization = {Vernon Press}, edition = {1st}, address = {Wilmington}, abstract = {

In the context of climate change, world population growth and crashing ecological systems, wildfire is often a catastrophic and traumatic event. Its impact can include loss of life, life-changing injuries, long-term psychological stress; increases in domestic violence; destruction of properties, business and livestock; long-term housing insecurity; increased insurance premiums, fire-fighting, legal and health costs; as well as significant changes and species losses in the natural environment.

}, keywords = {ignition, Planning, prevention, response, risk, Wildfire}, issn = {978-1-64889-010-9}, url = {https://vernonpress.com/book/890}, author = {Janet Stanley and Alan March and James Ogloff and James Thompson} } @article {bnh-6781, title = {Final report on vulnerability of as-built and retrofitted LDRC buildings}, number = {551}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Previous Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC (BNH CRC) reports have presented the fragility curves for reinforced concrete buildings that are supported by reinforced concrete walls and moment resisting frames, and the fragility curves for this type of buildings with four retrofitting options. This study presents the vulnerability curves for these buildings presented in terms of damage factor, which is the ratio of the repair cost to the replacement cost for the buildings. This report contributes to the project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright} which is aimed to develop knowledge to facilitate evidence-based informed decision making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting, revision of codified design requirement, and insurance policy.

}, keywords = {as-built, buildings, retrofit, Vulnerability}, issn = {551}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-7495, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation {\textendash} annual project report 2019-2020}, number = {625}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first two years of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating firebrand dynamics. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework with a spotting module. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. The research has also examined how wind-terrain interaction influences ember trajectories and the likely distribution of spot fires down wind of complex terrain.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and journal publications. Still more publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts. The project has also begun working on a dedicated utilisation project aimed at development of spot fire spatial mapping tools.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on-schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, mass spot fire dynamics, modelling, simulation}, issn = {625}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Badlan, R} } @article {bnh-6811, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation - Annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {559}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first year of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating the effects of pyrogenic vorticity. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations continue to provide fundamental insights that will be drawn upon to inform further the development of the pyrogenic potential model.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and a journal publication (currently under review). A number of other publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end-users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, modelling, simulation, spot fire dynamics}, issn = {559}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-6900, title = {Fire spread prediction across fuel types: annual report 2018-19}, number = {564}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The prediction of the rate of spread and intensity of bushfires is crucial for emergency and disaster management organisations for operational planning and the deployment of resources.\  Currently, simplified operational models are used since the prediction can be obtained on time scales commensurate with those required by emergency managers. Our aim is to refine these non-physics-based operational tools so that they can predict fire behaviour under a wide range of localised topographic and weather conditions, and also that they are able to account for a range of inhomogeneity, slope, and thermal instability within vegetation and over the terrain. Furthermore, a more physically-motivated firebrand model needs to be included in operational models to predict firebrand landing and the increased rate of fire spread (RoS).

In the last few years, we have numerically tested and established a reliable physics-based model that is based on basic fire dynamics theory and corresponding differential equations to simulate bushfire scenarios. We now embark upon utilization of our research as well as extending parametric study using the physics-based model. The following aspects have been the highlights of our endeavour:

Overall we have achieved our goal to obtain greater insight into bushfire physics and we are now utilising these insights to parameterise various phenomenon for operational models.

}, keywords = {fire spread, fuel types, prediction}, issn = {564}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6266, title = {Flood mapping under vegetation using single SAR acquisitions}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {237}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, abstract = {

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) enables 24-hour, all-weather flood monitoring. However, accurate detection of inundated areas can be hindered by the extremely complicated electromagnetic interaction phenomena between microwave pulses, and horizontal and vertical targets. This manuscript focuses on the problem of inundation mapping in areas with emerging vegetation, where spatial and seasonal heterogeneity makes the systematic distinction between dry and flooded backscatter response even more difficult. In this context, image interpretation algorithms have mostly used detailed field data and reference image(s) to implement electromagnetic models or change detection techniques. However, field data are rare, and despite the increasing availability of SAR acquisitions, adequate reference image(s) might not be readily available, especially for fine resolution acquisitions. To by-pass this problem, this study presents an algorithm for automatic flood mapping in areas with emerging vegetation when only single SAR acquisitions and common ancillary data are available. First, probability binning is used for statistical analysis of the backscatter response of wet and dry vegetation for different land cover types. This analysis is then complemented with information on land use, morphology and context within a fuzzy logic approach. The algorithm was applied to three fine resolution images (one ALOS-PALSAR and two COSMO-SkyMed) acquired during the January 2011 flood in the Condamine-Balonne catchment (Australia). Flood extent layers derived from optical images were used as validation data, demonstrating that the proposed algorithm had an overall accuracy higher than 80\% for all case studies. Notwithstanding the difficulty to fully discriminate between dry and flooded vegetation backscatter heterogeneity using a single SAR image, this paper provides an automatic, data parsimonious algorithm for the detection of floods under vegetation.

}, keywords = {Flooded vegetation, Fuzzy logic, Inundation extent, SAR}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111582}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719306029?dgcid=author}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Xu, J and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-7377, title = {Follow up of study participants: brain plasticity and divergent thinking}, number = {613}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unprecedented future disasters will require those in emergency management to be creative in their thinking. The backbone of creativity is divergent thinking; cognitive thoughts that do not converge on one correct answer but diverge to a range of possible options. This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project has explored the skills associated with divergent thinking during a series of workshops conducted with our end-user partners agencies.

This document identifies the results from a series of interviews conducted with end-user participants to understand the utilisation of the research provided in the series of workshops on divergent thinking.

Results indicate that the maturity of those agencies involved in this project regarding the utilisation of the divergent thinking research within their individual agency was in the {\textquoteleft}developing{\textquoteright} phase.

This low level of maturity can be attributed to a lack of formalised research utilisation structures within agencies that are hampered by resource and financial constraints. Compounding the ability for agencies to fully utilise research outputs are the challenges of embedding research within the entire policy cycle. To achieve this requires an ongoing collaborative partnership between agencies, research centers and academic institutions that occurs throughout the entire policy cycle, long after the initial research has been delivered.

}, keywords = {brain plasticity, divergent thinking}, issn = {613}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7479, title = {A global canopy water content product from AVHRR/Metop}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {162}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, pages = {77-93}, abstract = {

Spatially and temporally explicit canopy water content (CWC) data are important for monitoring vegetation status, and constitute essential information for studying ecosystem-climate interactions. Despite many efforts there is currently no operational CWC product available to users. In the context of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF), we have developed an algorithm to produce a global dataset of CWC based on data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor on board Meteorological{\textendash}Operational (MetOp) satellites forming the EUMETSAT Polar System (EPS). CWC reflects the water conditions at the leaf level and information related to canopy structure. An accuracy assessment of the EPS/AVHRR CWC indicated a close agreement with multi-temporal ground data from SMAPVEX16 in Canada and Dahra in Senegal, with RMSE of 0.19\ kg\ m-2\ and 0.078\ kg\ m-2\ respectively. Particularly, when the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was included the algorithm was better constrained in semi-arid regions and saturation effects were mitigated in dense canopies. An analysis of spatial scale effects shows the mean bias error in CWC retrievals remains below 0.001\ kg\ m-2\ when spatial resolutions ranging from 20\ m to 1\ km are considered. The present study further evaluates the consistency of the LSA-SAF product with respect to the Simplified Level 2 Product Prototype Processor (SL2P) product, and demonstrates its applicability at different spatio-temporal resolutions using optical data from MSI/Sentinel-2 and MODIS/Terra \& Aqua. Results suggest that the LSA-SAF EPS/AVHRR algorithm is robust, agrees with the CWC dynamics observed in available ground data, and is also applicable to data from other sensors. We conclude that the EPS/AVHRR CWC product is a promising tool for monitoring vegetation water status at regional and global scales.

}, keywords = {AVHRR/MetOp, Canopy Water Content (CWC), EUMETSAT, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), MODIS, Polar System (EPS), Sentinel-2}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.02.007}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924271620300411}, author = {Francis Javier Garcia-Haro and Manuel Campos-Taberner and Alaro Moreno and Hakan Torbern Tagesson and Fernando Camacho and Beatriz Martinez and Sergio Sanchez and Maria Piles and Gustau Campas-Valls and Marta Yebra and Maria Amparo Gilabert} } @article {bnh-7198, title = {Guidelines on the optimal use of remote sensing data to improve the accuracy of hydrologic and hydraulic models}, number = {600}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, land and emergency managers need to rely on flood forecasting systems. These systems consist of a hydrologic model and a hydraulic model. The hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that enters the river network, while the hydraulic model computes how that water moves throughout the river and floodplain. The accuracy and reliability of flood forecasting systems has significantly improved in the last decades. However, errors and/or uncertainties in model structures and parameters, input data, and/or meteorological forcings often hamper the accuracy of predictions. This document confirms that remote sensing data can be used to improve the accuracy of hydrologic and hydraulic models and thus ultimately improve the flood forecast accuracy.

More specifically, remotely sensed soil moisture data are used to improve the hydrologic forecast skill of ungauged sub-catchment streamflow locations through multi-objective calibration. A pragmatic approach to select the optimal hydrologic model, optimized rainfall product, and remotely sensed soil product is outlined. Routines to assimilate and smooth streamflow and remotely sensed soil moisture observations over the length of a unit hydrograph are provided for improving forecast capability. Further, remotely sensed inundation extent and water level are used to improve the accuracy of the hydraulic model. This spatially distributed information is essential for understanding the floodplain inundation dynamics, adequately setting-up the hydraulic model and effectively constraining its parameters. The research underpinning these guidelines is consistent with the findings of ongoing research efforts worldwide and has contributed to the development of knowledge and a pragmatic framework for application in the Australian context.

The methodologies presented in these guidelines for optimal use of remotely sensed data to improve the predictive skill of flood forecasting models can be applied by operational agencies. Moreover, the techniques for the analysis of remotely sensed data support and complement the existing capabilities of Geoscience Australia, and the hydrologic model assimilation has been implemented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.\ 

}, keywords = {flood forecast, hydrologic, hydrological models, remote sensing data}, issn = {600}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @book {bnh-7290, title = {A handbook of wildfire engineering: guidance for wildfire suppression and resilient urban design}, year = {2020}, pages = {179}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Each year firefighters from career and volunteer agencies across Australia respond to wildfires that impact the urban interface. When such an event occurs during a period of intense fire behavior, the conditions are often incompatible with life for persons either caught in the open or those seeking refuge in a vehicle. In order to improve firefighter safety and operational effectiveness during landscape scale wildfires, as well as providing sound engineering guidance to improve community resilience to wildfire impacts, this textbook forms part of the lead author{\textquoteright}s PhD and examines critical components of wildfire response. These components are the wildfire fighting strategies and tactics applied during a landscape scale wildfire event; the procedures and protective systems utilised in the event of burnover; operational risk management; and wildfire resilient urban design. A Handbook of Wildfire Engineering (the Handbook) provides firefighters, engineers and town planners with detailed technical approaches and analysis to enhance the resilience of communities in areas prone to wildfire impacts, and enhance the safety and effectiveness of wildfire suppression at the urban interface during catastrophic wildfire conditions.

Each chapter of the Handbook is designed to build upon the previous, providing a holistic approach to understanding vegetation and wildfire basics before exploring evidence based wildfire suppression. The critical linkage between wildfire suppression, firefighter safety and urban design is also explored. Whilst the primary focus of this Handbook is wildfire suppression, there are many aspects applicable to urban designers and policy makers. These are summarised at the conclusion of each chapter.

During the preparation of this book, Australia was suffering from catastrophic wildfires on both the west and east coasts and, tragically, civilians and firefighters alike were injured or killed. The lead author was deployed as a Strike Team Leader from Western Australia and was tasked with wildfire suppression and property defense near Walcha, New South Wales. In addition to his own local experiences in Margaret River in 2011 and Yarloop 2016, during the 2019 NSW deployment he witnessed first-hand the devastating effects of wildfire on firefighters and the communities, survived near miss entrapments and nights spent on the fireground cut off by fire behaviour and falling trees. This book is dedicated to all those affected by wildfires, particularly for the firefighters of all backgrounds and jurisdictions who put themselves in harm{\textquoteright}s way to protect life, property and the environment. May the guidance provided in this book help firefighters return safely to their loved ones and provide enhanced protection of communities in wildfire prone areas.

}, keywords = {engineering, resilience, suppression, urban design, Wildfire}, issn = {978-0-6482756-8-8}, author = {Greg Penney and Daryoush Habibi and Marcus Cattani and Steven Richardson} } @article {bnh-7028, title = {Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities {\textendash} annual report 2018-2019}, number = {585}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing amount of public attention focused on the contributions that Aboriginal people, and their knowledge and practices, make to resilience and sustainability agendas in Australia. Given the emerging commitment of natural hazards agencies in southern Australia to engagement and collaboration with Aboriginal people, the increasing level of legal recognition accorded to Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} land rights, and Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} own investment and interest in engaging in forms of natural hazard management, it is important that researchers support this work to understand and document how beneficial and respectful collaborations can be fostered.

The second year of the Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities (HCIC) project has focused on completing fieldwork for the case studies and practitioner survey, continuing to produce scholarly and industry-focused publications and maintaining strong end-user engagement. Our preliminary findings show that:

These findings are arising out of our key activities from the project. In this year, we report on:

Significantly, as part of our end-user engagement, we convened a workshop at AFAC18 that recommended:

These recommendations were passed onto our end-user team to take forward. They are also informing the preparations for the AFAC20 conference in Adelaide.

}, keywords = {culture, hazards, indigenous communities}, issn = {585}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-7185, title = {Hazards, culture and indigenous communities: socio-institutional modules for utilisation}, number = {595}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

These Modules provide background information to support existing and potential collaborations between the natural hazards management sector and Indigenous peoples and their communities.

The modules are specifically written for bushfire risk and its mitigation through land management activities, with the focus being Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} burning practices. This reflects where most of the collaborations are occurring in southern Australia, and also our research activities. The modules nonetheless offer support for other natural hazard contexts and other risk mitigation activities.

We have used the term {\textquoteleft}module{\textquoteright} rather than {\textquoteleft}guide{\textquoteright} to ensure readers understand these are simply presented as tools and are not intended to provide advice about the priorities and values of Indigenous peoples. It is particularly important for non-Indigenous people to learn directly from the Indigenous people they are collaborating with. Further, each collaboration will have specific cultural, social, legal, institutional and other norms, structures and processes.

In each model we have provided links for further information, and/or suggested reading lists.

Module 1: Governance norms

This module provides a general overview of governance arrangements. In it, we highlight differences and interactions between Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} governance and the statutory governance of fire by state agencies across Australia.

Module 2: Natural hazards management sector terminology

Natural hazard terminology is not widely known outside the sector. This is true for both formal terms used in planning and policy documentation, and also colloquial and informal language.

In this module, we define some of the basic concepts used in state fire fighting and mitigation activities.

Module 3: Language and meaning

Misunderstandings surround some of the basic language and meaning of terms and concepts used by different people engaged in the management of natural hazards and Country and this can hinder fair and effective cooperation. Meeting agendas, everyday conversations and well-meaning attempts to build working relationships can be derailed by missed meanings.

This module contains definitions of concepts that are increasingly deployed to foster equitable and just relationships of knowledge and practice within collaborations between Indigenous peoples, state government and other groups interested in land management:

Module 4: Agreement making

Agreement making, including Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), are used by diverse organisations to set out mutual terms for engagement and action. An MoU may be less formal than an agreement, but not necessarily.

The process of entering into an agreement recognises the existence of substantive joint interests, and the will to establish objectives in relation to those interests. Critically, agreements need to include consideration of:

These capacities are not just about the sharing of financial resources to prepare for and attend meetings, and to implement objectives, but also to ensure that parties are able to engage in meaningful communication with each other.

Module 5: Resources

In this module, we provide resources on publications by Indigenous authors about Indigenous governance and culture, as well as weblinks to a range of Indigenous and non-Indigenous sites of relevance.

}, keywords = {culture, hazards, indigenous communities, utilisation models}, issn = {595}, author = {Jessica Weir and Will Smith and Timothy Neale} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8091, title = {How do wet forests burn? : Fuels and fire danger in the world{\textquoteright}s tallest flowering forest}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {222}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Wildfire is possibly the most widespread natural disturbance globally, as its spatial and temporal patterns shape vegetation assemblages throughout the world. This is especially true in Australia, where the dominant trees, Eucalyptus spp., are among the most well-adapted to fire on the planet. To protect communities in such a fire-prone landscape, we need to be able to predict fire behaviour and manage fuels in a fashion that reduces risk. But to do this effectively, we must understand the natural fire regimes that occur in Australian ecosystems. One Australian ecosystem for which fire regimes are poorly understood is the tall wet Eucalyptus forest (TWEF). These globally unique forests support a mix of flammable and fire-sensitive vegetation and are among the world{\textquoteright}s most carbon-dense forests, so understanding their flammability is critical.

This thesis attempts to describe the fire regime TWEF. It does so in a fashion that can inform fuels management and fire behaviour prediction, with a particular focus on the island of Tasmania. First, I used fire behaviour model simulations to analyse the effectiveness of fuel treatment on fire behaviour in different Tasmanian vegetation, which allowed me to contextualise fire risk across the island{\textquoteright}s diverse vegetation types. I then described the fire regime, namely the expected frequency and severity of wildfires, of TWEF. I did this using a combination of fuels, microclimate, and weather data, along with fire behaviour modelling, to estimate potential fire severities in these forests. I first investigated what drives fire severity across a continental-scale macroecological gradient of forests in an {\textquoteleft}early-mature{\textquoteright} successional stage. However, flammability of older forests can be different from that of younger forests, so I investigated how the flammability of TWEF changes as a stand develops from regrowth to old-growth forest. For the latter exercise I focused, on Tasmanian TWEF.

Fire behaviour model simulations indicated that an impractical extent of landscape-scale prescribed burning would be needed for the treatment to be effective, and that this is especially true for TWEF. The results also suggested that Tasmanian TWEF are capable of sustaining among the most intense fires on the planet. I suggest that prescribed burning needs to be conducted at local, targeted scales, and that alternatives to prescribed burning need to be investigated for Tasmanian TWEF. Analysis of the continent-wide dataset of fuels and microclimate in early-mature TWEF indicated both low-and high-severity fires play an important role, but that high-severity fire is much more likely in TWEF in the hotter and drier regions of the continent. Further, similar analysis of a chronosequence of TWEF stands in Tasmania indicated that high-severity fires become more likely in younger TWEF. Importantly, the results highlighted that the TWEF understorey (or elevated fuel layer) is the most important fuel layer from a fire danger perspective. Hence, I suggest that management needs to mimic mixed-severity fires to maintain the structural heterogeneity and microclimate that makes these forests fire resistant.

Results from fire behaviour model simulations and from measuring fire severity in eight burnt field sites also indicated that current operational models over-predict flame height and fireline intensity in TWEF, likely due to an over-simplistic representation of forest structure. As a result, I performed a detailed review of the three major current operational fire behaviour models, along with a next-generation physics-based model, and documented their shortcomings. I then investigated how applicable these different models were in TWEF. Despite its importance, the live understorey is composed of many fire-sensitive species whose flammability is poorly understood. Hence, I propose that small-scale burning studies combined with physical simulation of wildfire are needed to quantify flammability and fire behaviour in forests composed of such species.

}, keywords = {burn, fire danger, flowering forest, fuels, wet forests}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/34888/}, author = {Furlaud, James M.} } @article {bnh-7036, title = {Impact of Australia{\textquoteright}s catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communities and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends}, journal = {Journal of Safety Science and Resilience}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

2019/20 Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire season (Black Summer fires) occurred during a period of record breaking temperatures and extremely low rainfall. To understand the impact of these climatic values we conducted a preliminary analysis of the 2019/20 bushfire season and compared it with the fire seasons between March 2000 and March 2020 in the states of New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and South Australia (SA). Forest and fire management in Australia were asked to provide data on the number of fires, burned area, life and house loss, as well as weather conditions. By March 2020 Black Summer fires burnt almost 19 million hectares, destroyed over 3,000 houses, and killed 33 people. Data showed that they were unprecedented in terms of impact on all areas. A number of mega-fires occurred in NSW resulting in more burned area than in any fire season during the last 20 years. One of them was the largest recorded forest fire in Australian history. Victoria had a season with the highest number of fires, area burned, and second highest numbers of houses lost for the same period. SA had the highest number of houses lost in the last 20 years. Black Summer fires confirmed existing trends of impact categories during the last two decades for NSW and Victoria. It showed that the smoke from the bushfires may be a significant concern in the future for the global community, as it travels to other countries and continents. Based on preliminary data, it will take many years to restore the economy and infrastructure in impacted areas, and to recover animal and vegetation biodiversity.

}, keywords = {2019/20 season, bushfires, Impact, retrospective analysis}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.06.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449620300098}, author = {Alex Filkov and Tuan Ngo and Stuart Matthews and Simeon Telfer and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7302, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone {\textendash} East Coast Lows: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {609}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows demonstrates a pilot capability to deliver quantitative impact forecasts for residential housing from the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high resolution weather prediction models (or high resolution reanalysis for hindcasts). The project is a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.\ 

The project goals include:

The project focuses on the wind impact on residential buildings from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in New South Wales (a.k.a. the "Dungog case study"; Wehner and Maqsood 2015). The wind hazard data is provided by the high resolution version of the Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator (ACCESS; Bureau of Meteorology 2018) model, or the equivalent high resolution reanalysis (BARRA-SY). The two damage data sets have been provided by NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU). Exposure and vulnerability information has been sourced from Geoscience Australia. Exposure data are sourced from the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS; Nadimpalli et al. 2007; Power et al. 2017), and heuristically derived vulnerability functions have been compiled as part of a previous project.

The multi-hazard nature of the east coast low event, the relatively low wind speeds and the limited available information in the damage assessment data makes attributing the observed building damage to the specific wind hazard very difficult. To evaluate the performance of the quantitative wind impact forecast that we have produced, very careful and detailed processing of the available damage data is needed to remove damage reports due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, rain ingress, and flood inundation.\ 

Despite the challenges above, we have now shown that the inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information can outperform a wind impact forecast that only uses a plain wind hazard prediction. In other words, the Dungog case study suggests that the extra effort needed for the quantitative inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information is a promising approach in the pursuit of future quantitative impact forecasts in Australia.\ 

We applied our impact forecast methodology to a second extreme weather case during May 2020 in Perth. An extra-tropical cyclone produced widespread wind damage with wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h recorded over many hours. In this case we found that wind impact forecasts are sensitive to the fluctuations in wind gust forecasts produced by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high-resolution real-time weather prediction models. Alongside the multi-hazard nature of damage to residential buildings, this impact sensitivity to the hazard constitutes a second complication for the quantitative prediction of wind impacts.

To increase the utility of the damage assessment data we continue to recommend that the SES/EICU damage survey templates record multiple damage states and linkages between damage and the associated hazard(s). Such expanded recording practices would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships. Additional uncertainty arises through the NEXIS exposure data which are statistically inferred at the Dungog township and are therefore merely indicative of the actual building attributes.

}, keywords = {coastal zone, east coast lows, Forecasting}, issn = {609}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Beth Ebert and Martin Wehner} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8310, title = {Implementing disaster resilience policy in the Australian Federation}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, pages = {329}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Australia adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience in 2011. This officially set it on a path to change the attitudes and behaviours of all sectors of society to share responsibility for disaster risks. This would require a shift away from the traditional emphasis on disaster, response, relief and recovery toward prevention, preparation and planning, and risk mitigation. Eight years later, disaster resilience policy continues to be implemented at all levels of government as well as influencing resilience-based approaches in the Not-for-Profit and business sectors. Much progress has been made in disaster resilience research, especially in the area of measurement, including the development of indicators that can potentially inform evaluation of the effectiveness of disaster resilience policy. However, there is shortage of research and a lack of awareness about the significance of policy implementation and governance for achieving successful policy outcomes. This thesis seeks to address this gap and investigates whether the implementation of disaster resilience policy in Australia reflects good practice and how current practice is shaped by the characteristics of the Australian Federal (multilevel) system of government. The methodology involves three parallel linked avenues of inquiry that includes the development of a Provisional Disaster Resilience Policy Implementation Framework (the Provisional framework) to guide implementation, the application of the Provisional Framework to a number of case studies of implementation to identify principles and practices relevant to multi-level governance systems that will enhance disaster resilience, and the evaluation of the Provisional framework to incorporate these findings.

A key research outcome is the Disaster Resilience Policy Implementation Framework that confirms the inclusion of the Policy Domains of Social Capital, Community Competence, Economic Development, Information and Communication, with the addition of a fifth and complementary Policy Domain, Subsidiarity. Subsidiarity is an organising principle that is closely associated with federalism and states that {\textquoteleft}that any particular task should be decentralized to the lowest level of governance with the capacity to conduct it satisfactorily{\textquoteright} (Marshall, G.R., 2008, {\textquoteleft}Nesting, subsidiarity, and communitybased environmental governance beyond the local scale{\textquoteright}. International Journal of the Commons, 2(1) p.80). This has implications for practice that have fundamental regard to the operation of disaster resilience within a system consisting of component parts that must work together to synergise disaster resilience efforts. For this system to work effectively activities must be coordinated using effective feedback mechanisms and facilitated by open and shared access to information, devolved to the appropriate level with approaches that nurture capacity, and with roles and responsibilities that are negotiated and clearly defined through an authentic process of stakeholder engagement.

}, keywords = {disaster, governance, Policy, resilience}, url = { http://hdl.handle.net/1885/216714}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-7165, title = {Implementing research to support disaster risk reduction}, journal = { Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {54-61}, abstract = {

One of the challenges facing disaster risk reduction is the gap between research and practice. Despite the considerable investment in publicly funded and commissioned disaster risk reduction research, the application of research findings to operational practice often lags, if implemented at all. This paper addresses the need to understand the antecedents of implementation and identifies activities involved in the research utilisation process. This paper reports on findings that led to the development of a research utilisation maturity matrix that encompasses four levels of maturity being: basic, developing, established and leading. This study involved collaboration and discussion with emergency services practitioners and a conceptual model of the elements needed to support implementation of research was identified. This model suggests that the four elements play key roles in effective implementation. The study gathered information from emergency services practitioners and their stakeholders about the meaning of the research findings and what, if anything, needed to change. The study{\textquoteright}s findings can help emergency services personnel assess organisational practices to improve research utilisation within the emergency sector and contribute to greater disaster risk reduction outcomes.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, Research utilisation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2020-implementing-research-to-support-disaster-risk-reduction/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Noreen Krusel and Loriana Bethune} } @article {bnh-7508, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {629}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

There is increasing recognition of the urgency to consider how disaster risk might change into the future, what impacts this is likely to have and, most importantly, what we can do to reduce this risk.\  There is also increased recognition that in order to achieve this, we need to adopt a holistic approach that takes into account community values, vulnerabilities and resilience, future changes in population and demographics, climate change, multiple hazards, cascading events, adaptation and a range of risk reduction strategies, such land use planning, community education, land management, structural measures and changes to building codes.

Over the last 5 years, this project has co-developed conceptual, modelling and decision support frameworks for tackling the above problems in conjunction with more than 40 end-user organisations in four states (South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria).\  The frameworks facilitate (i) the development of the capacity for strategic thinking and for tackling long-term disaster risk in an integrated fashion, (ii) the collaboration between different government departments and different levels of government (federal, state and local), (iii) the development of a shared understanding of risks and values between a range of stakeholders (e.g. different levels of government and the community), (iv) the quantification of how disaster risks and costs might change into the future under a range of integrated socio-economic and climate scenarios and (v) the development of the best adaptive mitigation strategies under these scenarios.

The above frameworks have resulted in the development of the decision support software UNHaRMED (Unified Natural Hazards Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision support system), applications for which have been co-developed with end users for greater Adelaide, Perth and surrounds, Tasmania and greater and peri-urban Melbourne.\  They are now being deployed in a variety of manners to support understanding and decision making on disaster risk reduction along with continual improvements to the capability.

In the last financial year users have now been trained in all jurisdictions. This report summarises some of the enhanced software capabilities along with describe several utilisation activities designed to highlight the benefits of using an interactive risk assessment tool in participatory settings. This has included facilitating a mitigation exercises for South Australian State and Local Government agencies exploring mitigation activities for a changing coastal risk profile and assessing floodplain management approaches in the Gawler River.

}, keywords = {decision support, improved, natural hazard, risk reduction, UNHaRMED}, issn = {629}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Sofanit Araya and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and Graeme Dandy and Eike Hamers} } @article {bnh-7026, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction {\textendash} annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {583}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is increasing recognition of the urgency to consider how disaster risk might change into the future, what impacts this is likely to have and, most importantly, what we can do to reduce this risk. There is also increased recognition that in order to achieve this, we need to adopt a holistic approach that takes into account community values, vulnerabilities and resilience, future changes in population and demographics, climate change, multiple hazards, cascading events, adaptation and a range of risk reduction strategies, such as land use planning, community education, land management, structural measures and changes to building codes.

Over the last five years, this project has co-developed conceptual, modelling and decision support frameworks for tackling the above problems in conjunction with more than 40 end-user organisations in four states (South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria). The frameworks facilitate:

The above frameworks have resulted in the development of the decision support software UNHaRMED (Unified Natural Hazards Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision support system), applications for which have been co-developed with end-users for greater Adelaide, Perth and surrounds, Tasmania and greater and peri-urban Melbourne. In Adelaide, UNHaRMED is being used in collaboration with local governments for strategic flood mitigation planning and the development of a state emergency management exercise focused on recovery and long term mitigation related to sea level rise.

End-user training for the Perth and Tasmania UNHaRMED applications only occurred in 2019 and relevant agencies in these states are working towards the incorporation of these applications in state planning processes. End-user training for the greater and peri-urban application of UNHaRMED will take place in July 2019.

Other opportunities have also presented themselves in working with agencies and providing outputs and insight from UNHaRMED into other projects and products. These have included working with the SA Government on a mitigation exercise which will take place early in the next financial year focused on how to explore future impacts of coastal flooding and develop mitigation activities to be implemented. Another has been working with the National Resilience Taskforce on modelling capabilities for understanding climate and disaster risks.

}, keywords = {decision support, Natural hazards, risk reduction, UNHaRMED}, issn = {583}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Sofanit Araya and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and Graeme Dandy and Eike Hamers} } @article {bnh-6801, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact}, number = {556}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project has completed the second year of its refresh and is progressing with some challenges. The first 3{\textonehalf} years featured a strong focus on developing underpinning science in some important areas, notably the transport of embers by bushfire plumes, and understanding the origin of the moisture when pyrocumulus clouds form {\textendash} is it from the atmosphere, or from the fuel? We also conducted significant case studies, including an ensemble-based study of a severe east coast low, an analysis of the meteorology of the State Mine Fire of October 2013, and a study into tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation.

This second phase of the project pivots towards utilization. We will not neglect investigations into the underpinning science, or case studies, but we are looking to turn our previous discoveries and knowledge gained into useful products.

The first of these is a new thermodynamic tool for predicting the potential for pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) formation, the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold, or PFT. This parameter depends on the atmospheric state, both the wind strength within the boundary layer and the full thermodynamic profile and aims to predict the minimum fire power (in GW) that is necessary to trigger deep convection. In favourable conditions, a fire of a few GW suffices, and at unfavourable times, 1000 GW would be insufficient. We have found that there is substantial variability in the atmospheric favourability in time and space, and that observed pyroCb often form during a narrow window of opportunity. We are presently preparing for a major utilization exercise, a near-real time trial of the tool over the coming summer. We expect that the results from this trial will help to finalize the development of the tool, and ready it for operations.

Our case study of the tornado outbreak in South Australia that triggered events which cut power to the entire state showed that the tornado cluster was predictable by modern high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) {\textendash} indeed, the deterministic model predicted the precise location of one of the observed tornadoes. Encouraged by this success, we ran a 6-member ensemble simulation of the event, which showed that while the probability of tornadoes was well over 50\%, the level and location of the activity was less certain. To assist with analysis of this event, we also developed a novel diagnostic of tornadic precursors in NWP systems. A journal article is almost ready for submission on this work.

A second case study is analyzing the Tathra bushfire on the south coast of New South Wales, which led to the destruction of over 60 houses. Although occurring in strong northwesterly winds in the lee of the ranges, mountain wave activity appears to have been modest at the time of the greatest fire activity and probably not the major cause of the disaster. Rather, the extreme fire behavior appears to have been driven by strong, very unsteady and fluctuating winds, caused by roll-like circulations in the flow off the ranges, with the interaction between this flow and a later wind change also of interest. The weak role of mountain waves in this event illustrates the value of performing detailed case studies, as at first glance, several of the ingredients for a mountain wave event were present, and indeed active earlier in the day.

Unfortunately, our development of a parameterization of long-range ember transport has made little progress this year, due to the unanticipated difficulty of the task and the illness of a staff member. We plan to resume work on that shortly.

In recognition of the delays on the ember transport parameterization, and also of new opportunities that have arisen in pyrocumulus prediction, we have negotiated an altered project schedule with the BNHCRC.

}, keywords = {community impact, predictions, Severe Weather}, issn = {556}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and David Wilke and Serena Schroeter} } @article {bnh-7801, title = {Improving decision making, teamwork and organisational learning in emergency management {\textendash} final project report}, number = {641}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background: Each year Australian emergency management organisations coordinate the response to thousands of emergency events. While a successful outcome is achieved in the vast majority of these events, notable and ongoing concerns are being raised as to how well some of the emergency management teams have functioned.\  Often the problems are not based on technical skills (such as the use of equipment) but on the non-technical skills, such as: communication, coordination, situation awareness, and decision making. In addition, skills such as creativity and divergent thinking may be important in helping people to manage ever more complex emergencies. This project seeks to develop simple practical tools that can help people to better manage their teamwork, improve their decision making and develop more creative solutions.\  In addition to developing these tools this project also considers how organisations utilise the outcomes of research.\  Application of research in support of organisational learning is critical not just for organisational growth, competitiveness and sustainability but also for wide-scale industry development, community and economic well-being. However, maximising organisational learning from research often falls short. As part of this project we will seek to develop a tool to help agencies to utilise research more effectively.

Method: The tools were developed using a human-centred design approach. This approach placed the end-user very much at the heart of the development process so that the tools were effectively co-created with end-users. Embedding end-users into the research and design process has two goals, 1) to produce effective tools that are designed around the end-user and 2) to create the right context for the adoption of the tools by emergency management agencies. In this way we have brought utilisation to the centre of the project, embedding it within the research process so that utilisation informs and is informed by the research from the beginning of the project.

Research and tool development: A number of tools were developed to help people to better manage their teamwork and decision making. These tools include:

In addition to creating tools that help better manage teams and make more effective decisions, members of the project team have also developed methods to help people to act more creatively during operations (such as stretch thinking loops for team decision making). To help end-users to diagnose their capacity to utilise research a self-assessment tool was developed (known as the self-assessment research utilisation maturity matrix or RUMM). This tool can be used by practitioners to identify steps needed to move along the path towards research implementation.

Utilisation: These tools have now seen excellent utilisation by emergency management agencies in Australia and have attracted growing interest from international partners in the UK and Spain.\  The teamwork tools have been used to help manage both simulated and real-life emergencies; to conduct debriefs and after-action reviews; to design response plans; and to evaluate emergency management arrangements. The research utilisation maturity matrix (RUMM) has been used to inform future research planning, to assess existing capability in research utilisation and to inform future policy decisions.\  The tools that we have created have been included in a number of key industry publications (such as AFAC Lessons Management Handbook) and a number of agencies have changed their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools.

Conclusion and next steps: This project has developed a number of products that can help people in emergency management to better manage non-technical skills, improve creativity and assess their ability to utilise the products of research.\  The next steps are to help agencies to better embed these tools so that they become part of normal everyday business.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Emergency management, organisational learning, teamwork}, issn = {641}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hastings and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-7694, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data {\textendash} final project report}, number = {633}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queensland, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totalling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018).\  The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers rely on flood forecasting systems.

These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods. Using observed and predicted rainfall, the hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that is flowing through the river network, while the hydraulic model computes water depth and velocity in the river and in the floodplain. In recent decades, the accuracy and reliability of these flood forecasting systems has significantly improved. However, it remains difficult to provide accurate and precise flood warnings. This is a result of errors and/or uncertainties in model structures, model parameters, input data, and/or meteorological forcing (mainly rainfall). The hypothesis of this project is that remote sensing data can be used to improve modelled flood forecast skill and value.

More specifically, this project developed optimal ways to constrain and update the hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture data. The significance of soil moisture is its direct impact on the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. Second, this project proposed an algorithm for the monitoring of floods under vegetation. Finally, we investigated optimal ways to use remote sensing-derived inundation extent and level to implement and calibrate the hydraulic model. \ The results of this project enable improved predictions of flow depth, extent and velocity in the floodplain.

}, keywords = {Flood, forecast, remote sensing data}, issn = {633}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @article {bnh-7300, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {607}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This BNHCRC project titled:\  Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events prescribes practical structural retrofits that will make improvements to the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses in windstorms as well as measures to reduce damage and loss to modern homes.

The major activity carried out in 2019-20 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been refining the VAWS software package using detailed wind loading and structural response test data and conducting a benefit-cost analysis for a range of retrofit or mitigation options:\ 

The retrofit options for the ten selected house types are also being provided as guideline in a website that is being produced. In line with the project timeline, an alpha version of this tool will be presented to Stakeholders in the next Quarter with the intention of having the final version released at the end of the project.

This project continues to give advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to low income eligible home owners to improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) commenced in late 2018 and has been extended through 2020. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 1700 houses have been retrofitted so far.\ 

}, keywords = {Housing, resilience, severe wind}, issn = {607}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and John Ginger and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-7481, title = {In-plane response of perforated unreinforced masonry walls under cyclic loading}, journal = {Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {146}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, abstract = {

This paper presents the results of an experimental study into the behavior of perforated (containing openings) unreinforced masonry (URM) walls subjected to cyclic in-plane lateral loading. Damage to perforated URM walls during previous earthquakes has revealed that the in-plane response is mainly influenced by the pier and spandrel geometry, as well as the level of axial compressive stress on the walls due to gravity loading. The study focused on masonry typologies representative of historical URM buildings in the Australian context. To investigate this behavior, eight full-scale URM walls with semicircular arched openings, double wythe thickness, and materials representing masonry construction from the mid-19th to mid-20th century were constructed for pseudostatic cyclic in-plane testing. The experimental program considered varying spandrel depths and pier widths and the imposed vertical loading on the piers was also varied to observe the lateral load capacity and the variation of pier-spandrel failure modes. The test results showed that the in-plane capacity and the failure modes were significantly affected by changes of wall geometry and the imposed vertical precompression loading. Predictions of wall strengths, in-plane stiffnesses, and failure modes according to ASCE guidelines show that the guidelines agree well with the test observations.

}, keywords = {earthquake, lateral loading, unreinforced masonry}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0002657}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29ST.1943-541X.0002657}, author = {Milon Howlader and Mark Masia and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-7482, title = {In-plane shear testing of unreinforced masonry walls and comparison with FEA and NZSEE predictions}, volume = {5}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

The present study was conducted to investigate the global and local in-plane response of perforated URM walls under earthquake loading, based on observations of damage from previous earthquakes. To do so, full-scale cyclic in-plane testing of URM walls with an arched opening which were designed to represent walls in heritage URM structures in Australia was performed. The study investigated the behaviour of both pier and spandrel elements within the walls. Emphasis was also given to the position of walls within a multi-storey building by varying the pre-compression loads (representing gravity loads) on the walls. The tested walls were then simulated using nonlinear finite element analyses (FEA) where simplified micro-modelling (crack-shear-crush) approaches were used to analyse the wall behaviour. Finally, the shear capacities and the failure modes of the walls obtained from the experimental tests and FE analyses were compared to the proposed New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering (NZSEE) predictions.

}, keywords = {cyclic testing, FEA, finite element analyses, in-plane shear behaviour, NZSEE, unreinforced masonry, URM}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMRI.2020.104845}, url = {https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJMRI.2020.104845}, author = {Milon Howlader and Mark Masia and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7738, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {635}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Urban planning systems have considerable potential to modify the impacts of natural hazards upon the built environment, humans and associated systems. With the increased frequency of natural hazards due to climate change and increased exposure to hazards due to population growth pressures, especially in the urban-rural interface, there are also increased consequences for human settlements and likely exacerbation of the challenges associated with natural hazard impact.

In this context, this project sought to understand the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia, and the ways in which key planning processes for risk-based decision-making in the built environment can be improved. By doing so, it identified many gaps in the ways we currently seek to integrate urban planning and natural hazard risk management.

The primary questions posed by this research project were:

PQ1 {\textendash} What are the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia?

PQ2 {\textendash} How can key planning processes for risk-based decision making in the built environment be improved at local and state level, including generalizable and adaptable model processes and codes with practical illustrative cases?

Method

The project comprised 3 sequential stages that resulted in the development of diagnostic tools to assess and improve the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia.

The first stage{\textendash}Mapping Current Knowledge, Best Practice and Challenges{\textendash}established an analytical framework to assess integration based on current knowledge, best practice and challenges. Using desktop research and end-user workshops, core integration principles were identified.

In the second stage{\textendash}Assessing Australian Planning and Ways Forward{\textendash}the set of integration principles was refined through its application to past Australian inquiries into natural hazard events. An analytical framework for assessing integration was also developed and diagrammatically represented to illustrate and map critical variables for the integration of Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation.

The third stage{\textendash}Applying and Generating Knowledge in New Ways{\textendash}applied and generated knowledge by undertaking an assessment of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in two Australian case studies. In consultation with end-users, this assessment targeted proposed land use planning reforms in South Australia and a historical case of edge development in Metropolitan Melbourne in Victoria. Findings from these case studies informed the development of critical frameworks for best practice comprising three sets of diagnostic tools.

Learnings and findings

Learnings were captured in a set of scalable and adaptable diagnostic tools that are part of critical frameworks for best practice in integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia. These diagnostic tools allow assessment of integration and risk management across urban planning and emergency management systems and processes. This set of tools is the final product for this research project and the utilisation output delivered to end-users. This output represents a comprehensive understanding of the potentials and limits of urban planning systems when it comes to disaster risk reduction. It allows for a range of new ways forward to fully utilise and integrate urban planning with natural hazard mitigation actions and outcomes. Broadly, these diagnostic tools suggest that a comprehensive assessment of integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation should include consideration of

Utilisation

This project is in its first three-year cycle, so it was not able to move into utilisation.\  However, the outcomes of the work provide an ability to understand, critique and improve urban planning{\textquoteright}s influence and impact on risk reduction to natural hazards, providing many new ways forward.

Therefore, there is great potential for the utilisation of the critical model developed in the research to assess and guide reform in processes of land use planning in existing and future settlements. In particular, modifying the processes of state and local government during planning decision-making is likely to yield significant impact. The development of illustrative critical and explanatory understandings of the importance and application of urban planning as a tool for disaster risk reduction is in and of itself a significant output that can be utilised.

Many of the project findings have been included in the AIDR Handbook {\textquotedblleft}Land Use Planning for Disaster Resilient Communities{\textquotedblright} (March \& Gonzalez-Mathiesen, 2020) and have informed submissions to the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (Stanley et al., 2020)and to the Inquiry into the 2019-2020 Victorian Fire Season (Stanley et al., 2020,embargoed).

There are many potential areas for ongoing utilisation. These fall under the following broad categories:

}, keywords = {integrated, mitigation, natural hazard, urban planning}, issn = {635}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7013, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia: assessment of the draft Planning and Design Code 2019}, number = {584}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia.\  The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {bushfires, planning and design code, risk reduction, south australia}, issn = {584}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7944, title = {Intensifying Australian heatwave trends and their sensitivity to observational data}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Heatwaves are an accustomed extreme event of the Australian climate, which can cause catastrophic impacts on human health, agriculture, and urban and natural systems. We have analysed the trends in Australia-wide heatwave metrics (frequency, duration, intensity, number, cumulative magnitude, timing, and season duration) across 69 extended summer seasons (i.e., from Nov-1951 to Mar-2020). Our findings not only emphasise that heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer, and more frequent, but also signify that they are occurring with excess heat, commencing much earlier, and expanding their season over many parts of Australia in recent decades. The Australian heatwave trends have strengthened since last observed Australian study was conducted. We also investigated the heatwave and severe heatwave trends at a local city-scale using three different observational products (AWAP and SILO gridded datasets and ACORN_SATV2 station data) over selected time periods (1911-2019, 1911-64, and 1965-2019). Results suggest that heatwave trends are noticeably different amongst the three datasets. However, the results highlight that the severe heatwave cumulative magnitude and their season duration have been increasing significantly in recent decades over Australia{\textquoteright}s southern coastal cities (like Melbourne and Adelaide). The climatological mean of the most heatwave and severe heatwave metrics is substantially higher in recent decades compared to earlier periods across all the cities considered. The findings of our study have significant implications for the development of advanced heatwave planning and adaptation strategies.

}, keywords = {Australia, Climate change, heatwaves, urban}, doi = {10.1002/essoar.10505178.1 }, url = {https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10505178.1}, author = {P Jyoteeshkumar reddy and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Jason J. Sharples} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8311, title = {Investigating the psychological factors that influence cyclone mitigation behaviour}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {280}, school = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclones can cause significant damage to houses located in high-risk areas. In Australia, cities and towns situated on the north coast of Queensland are considered some of the most cyclone-prone communities in the country. Cyclone related property damage can, however, be reduced if the citizens of these communities perform appropriate protective behaviours. People can, for example, install structural upgrades on their houses, which improves the house{\textquoteright}s ability to withstand cyclonic winds. There is also a range of short-term preparedness behaviours that have been shown to effectively mitigate cyclone related property damage. Though, to date, the proportion of people that perform these mitigation behaviours has been relatively low. The overall aim of this research project was to explore why some people do, and others do not, perform cyclone mitigation behaviours.

Past research has shown that Expectancy Value (EV) theories help to explain whether people perform mitigation behaviours for natural hazards. However, an EV based theory has yet to be applied to explain cyclone related structural mitigation behaviour. This research project addressed this research gap by testing the extent to which an adapted EV theory helps to explain people{\textquoteright}s intention to install cyclone shutters. An initial study showed that psychological factors within the adapted EV theory were significant predictors of mitigation behaviour. The results also indicated that an adapted EV theory can be used differentiate between different types of people and their levels of intention to install cyclone shutters. A follow up study showed that that hazard intrusiveness, perceived benefits and perceived cost were the only significant predictors of shutter installation status when controlling for other psychological, demographic and experience factors. The results indicate that when perceived benefits (i.e., the secondary benefits of a structural upgrade) and perceived efficacy (i.e., the perceived ability of the structural upgrade to mitigate harm) are considered separate constructs, only perceived benefits is a significant predictor of structural mitigation\ behaviour. The findings suggest that people are more likely to invest in shutters if they believe that the secondary benefits of shutters outweigh the cost.

Although most EV theories suggest that risk perception influences protective behaviour, empirical research has shown that risk perception is not always a significant predictor of mitigation behaviour. This research project also tested a new method of assessing risk perception to determine if it was significant predictor of short-term cyclone preparedness behaviour. The results indicate that when controlling for objective risk and protective action perceptions, the predicted damage and anticipated negative emotions associated with that damage were both significant predictors of preparedness intention. The results suggest that it is possible to identify a relatively strong link between risk perception and mitigation intention when it is considered a dual-process phenomenon and objective risk is controlled for in the analysis.

Research investigating mitigation behaviour for natural hazards also tends to show that people with experience perceive more risk and are more prepared for future events. However, the link between experience, risk perception and mitigation behaviour seems to be dependent on the type of experience. One type of experience that has not been studied empirically is that of fringe experience. The final study addressed this research gap by exploring how people who had experienced the fringe effects of a severe cyclone (i.e., experienced lesser wind speeds compared to those near the eye of storm) predicted future damage from similar cyclone event. It was found that the more people overestimated the severity of the cyclone they experienced, the less damage they predicted they would experience from a future severe cyclone. The results highlight the importance of specifying the type of experience being assessed in empirical research and that fringe experience is one type of experience can lower risk perception.

The findings from this research project have several implications. The results show that different psychological factors are important for explaining different types of mitigation behaviour. It is, therefore, important for future research applying EV theories to adapt them in accordance with the type of behaviour they are attempting to explain. The findings also suggest that the link between experience, risk perception and cyclone mitigation behaviour is dependent on the way in which these variables are conceptualised and operationalised. Overall, this research project shows that how people think about cyclones and mitigation behaviours helps to explain the extent to which they prepare for cyclones.

}, keywords = {cyclone mitigation behavior, cyclone preparedness, cyclones, fringe experience, hazard intrusiveness, hazard-related attributes, protection motivation theory, protective action decision model, Risk perception}, doi = {10.25903/rsvz-3w27}, url = {https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/68936/}, author = {Mitchell Scovell} } @article {bnh-7012, title = {January 2020 NSW bushfires study}, number = {582}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In late January, 2020, Risk Frontiers with the support of the CRC funding for quick response deployed a team to the NSW South Coast region. Areas surveyed include Moruya, Mogo, Malua Bay, Rosedale, the Catalina area of Batemans Bay and Lake Conjola. The majority of damage occurred on December 31, 2019 as catastrophic weather conditions (extreme temperatures and high magnitude winds) intensified existing fire fronts. The conditions transported large quantities of embers into vulnerable communities, destroying hundreds of residential and several commercial buildings. In total, the survey identified 426 bushfire affected properties, most of which were destroyed. Industries/Infrastructure affected included: Bowling / Services club, unit block (12 units), Heritage Park, industrial complex with numerous businesses, extensive damage to electricity infrastructure (power poles and wires along the Princes Highway). This report complements our report for northern NSW (Risk Frontiers, 2020).

}, keywords = {catastrophic weather conditions, embers, fires, nsw}, issn = {582}, author = {Steve George and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Salom{\'e} Hussein and Jonathan Van Leeuwen} } @article {bnh-7708, title = {Leaf traits predict global patterns in the structure and flammability of forest litter beds}, journal = {Journal of Ecology}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {
  1. Fallen plant material such as leaves, needles and branches form litter beds which strongly influence fire ignition and spread. Traits of the dominant species influence litter flammability directly by determining how individual leaves burn and indirectly through the structure of the litter bed. However, we are yet to determine the relative importance of these different drivers across a range of plant species from different biomes.
  2. We undertook a meta-analysis, combining leaf trait, litter structure and flammability data for 106 species from North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The dataset encompassed broad-leaved and coniferous species from seven different experimental studies. Relationships between leaf traits, litter structure and key flammability metrics{\textemdash}sustainability, combustibility and consumability{\textemdash}were analysed using bivariate and piecewise structural equation modelling (SEM).
  3. Traits which characterise the three-dimensional nature of the leaf and how much space a leaf occupies showed much stronger associations to litter structure and flammability than other morphological traits. Leaf curl, surface area to volume ratio (SAV) and SLA predominately influence litter flammability indirectly via litter structure with SLA being the only leaf trait which had a negative direct effect on flame duration. Packing ratio and bulk density were influenced by different combinations of leaf traits and, in turn, they aligned with different flammability metrics. Bulk density predicted flame spread rate and flame duration whereas packing ratio predicted consumption.
  4. Synthesis. We identified key leaf and litter traits which influence different components of litter bed flammability. Importantly, we show that the effects of these leaf and litter traits are consistent across a wide range of taxa and biomes. Our study represents a significant step towards developing trait-based models for predicting surface wildfire behaviour. Such models will more flexibly accommodate future shifts in the composition of plant species triggered by altered fire regimes and climate change.
}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, flammability, leaf traits, litter properties, meta-analysis, surface fuel}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13561}, url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2745.13561}, author = {Jamie Burton and Jane Cawson and Alex Filkov and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7664, title = {Learning as we go: developing effective inclusive management {\textendash} case studies and guidance}, number = {632}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Commitment is important because sometimes that is all you have.{\textquoteright}

Diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is now an imperative for all emergency management organisations (EMOs) if they are to mitigate and manage the human and social risk associated with the changing risk landscape communities now occupy. The increasingly unprecedented natural hazards events, systemic nature of the impacts and the intersection with other events (such as COVID-19), are changing what is being experienced, and what is needed to respond and recover from these events. It has brought into focus the need to build robust and resilient social infrastructure in communities and organisations prior to events or implementation of activities. The area of social and human risk that is associated with D\&I, has for the most part, been seen as secondary to more technical and tangible risks, and its value is not well understood.

Management of D\&I happens at all levels of the organisations {\textendash} from upper level leadership to frontline workers {\textendash} and is strategic and short-term. It has two aspects:

Due to the new needs arising, management of D\&I is emergent and inherently risky as there is a high level of innovation involved in many activities. Obtaining an inclusive and diverse workforce is a long-term proposition requiring stamina and flexibility. It requires changing not only social and organisational structures and culture, but how people think and act within them. This not a straightforward task; it requires not only progressing the agenda, but also {\textquoteleft}holding the line{\textquoteright} and thinking creatively when there are adverse responses, which are a natural part of the change process. It is also an agenda that requires deep collaboration within organisations and all those within the emergency management sector (EMS) for the foreseeable future.

The case studies in this document illustrate that although there may be common principles that underpin practice, there is no one management prototype or model. It is a process of conscious decision making where what is managed and how it is managed is determined by who is being managed, their context, and the specific needs that arise from this. These factors are also influenced across time by changing social, environmental, political and economic circumstances, and ongoing learning and being able to adapt in response to this are central to effective management. What works one year may not work in the next (Young and Parry, 2020), and what works in one context will not necessarily work in another. There is no fixed-point destination to arrive at, rather a series of destinations that organisations and communities transition through as they work towards the desired inclusive outcome.

As a result, management of this area is highly dynamic and more reliant on process to manage the multiple uncertainties associated with achieving outcomes. It also requires leading from behind and guiding, rather than dictating, so that people achieve awareness and feel enabled to act.

The case studies also highlight the importance of having a social mandate to operate. This is particularly important for maintaining longer term activities, as it is built upon trusted relationships and the connections that support this. Trust-based relationships are not something that can be manufactured. They are earned through authentic and respectful interactions that are maintained, and where actions match the words that are spoken. It is critical for leaders at all levels to appreciate that people will not follow, engage with, or take instruction from someone they do not trust or they feel is being tokenistic. It is also important to note that management starts at the top of organisations, but its effectiveness is ultimately determined by how it is grown and maintained at the bottom and middle of organisations.

The other common aspects found to support effective D\&I programs include:

Inclusion is not about being permissive. It is about understanding the formation of new boundaries and who should decide those boundaries. The diversity conversation is also not one conversation. It is the coming together, and inclusion, of many different voices so a collaborative outcome can be negotiated.

This document presents case studies and examples of best practice and knowledge that have been collated with experts within EMOs who were part of this study. As practice is evolving rapidly, its purpose is to provide reference points for practitioners to support broader development of the D\&I agenda. They show that organisations are learning and building as they go, and that some of the best resources the EMS have are their practitioners. It also provides resource materials that have been developed to support D\&I practitioners by the EMS and other industries.

This document is a support document for the Diversity and inclusion framework for emergency management policy and practice (Young and Jones, 2020), which provides overarching concepts, principles and processes that guide management activities. As a result, it should be read in conjunction with the framework.

}, keywords = {case studies, diversity, guidance, inclusion management}, issn = {632}, author = {Celeste Young and Craig Cormick and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-7293, title = {Legal Complexities of Entry, Rescue, Seizure and Disposal of Disaster-Affected Companion Animals in New Zealand}, journal = {Animals}, volume = {10}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, abstract = {

With the increasing societal expectation that animals are afforded greater protection in emergencies, the legal process from entering a property to rescuing a companion animal, through to how to dispose of such animals if they remain unclaimed has not been well examined in New Zealand. It is hypothesised that the legal framework for such a response is flawed. In this study, each phase of animal disaster rescue is evaluated against four key statutes that may apply in each phase, in that does any statute provide clear end-to-end provisions with clear legal authority to do so? The study found that all statutes evaluated contained flaws and that the current legal provisions are insufficient to provide clear authority for the sequential process of undertaking the rescue of animals during emergencies. A major flaw was discovered in the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002, a key statute, that provided for the seizure of property and animals but omitted a procedure for the disposal of such seized things leaving them all in legal limbo. It is recommended that animal disaster laws be updated to be more animal inclusive. The method also may be applicable to assist evaluating animal disaster management legal frameworks in other countries

}, keywords = {animal, disaster, disposal, Emergency, law, rescue, seizure, welfare}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ani10091583}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/10/9/1583}, author = {Glassey, Steve} } @article {bnh-7785, title = {Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire prediction and meteorological products provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian fire agencies}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, chapter = {1380}, abstract = {

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are simulators that integrate a fire component and an atmospheric component, with the objective of capturing interactions between the fire and atmosphere. As a fire releases energy in the combustion process, the surrounding atmosphere adjusts in response to the energy fluxes; coupled fire-atmosphere (CFA) models aim to resolve the processes through which these adjustments occur. Several CFA models have been developed internationally, mostly by meteorological institutions and primarily for use as a research tool. Research studies have provided valuable insights into some of the atmospheric processes surrounding a fire. The potential to run CFA models in real time is currently limited due to the intensive computational requirements. In addition, there is a need for systematic verification to establish their accuracy and the appropriate circumstances for their use. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing relevant and accurate meteorological information to Australian fire agencies to inform decisions for the protection of life and property and to support hazard management activities. The inclusion of temporally and spatially detailed meteorological fields that adjust in response to the energy released by a fire is seen as a component in developing fire prediction systems that capture some of the most impactful fire and weather behavior. The Bureau{\textquoteright}s ten-year research and development plan includes a commitment to developing CFA models, with the objective of providing enhanced services to Australian fire agencies. This paper discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

}, keywords = {coupled fire-atmosphere, Fire, meteorology, modeling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121380}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/12/1380}, author = {Mika Peace and Joseph Charney and John Bally} } @article {bnh-6974, title = {A Live Fuel Moisture Content Product from Landsat TM Satellite Time Series for Implementation in Fire Behavior Models}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {12}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) contributes to fire danger and behavior, as it affects fire ignition and propagation. This paper presents a two layered Landsat LFMC product based on topographically corrected relative Spectral Indices (SI) over a 2000{\textendash}2011 time series, which can be integrated into fire behavior simulation models. Nine chaparral sampling sites across three Landsat -5 Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes were used to validate the product over the Western USA. The relations between field-measured LFMC and Landsat-derived SIs were strong for each individual site but worsened when pooled together. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) presented the strongest correlations (r) and the least Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), followed by the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI). The relations between LFMC and the SIs for all sites improved after using their relative values and relative LFMC, increasing r from 0.44 up to 0.69 for relative EVI (relEVI), the best predictive variable. This relEVI served to estimate the herbaceous and woody LFMC based on minimum and maximum seasonal LFMC values. The understory herbaceous LFMC on the woody pixels was extrapolated from the surrounding pixels where the herbaceous vegetation is the top layer. Running simulations on the Wildfire Analyst (WFA) fire behavior model demonstrated that this LFMC product alone impacts significantly the fire spatial distribution in terms of burned probability, with average burned area differences over 21\% after 8 h burning since ignition, compared to commonly carried out simulations based on constant values for each fuel model. The method could be applied to Landsat-7 and -8 and Sentinel-2A and -2B after proper sensor inter-calibration and topographic correction.

}, keywords = {data normalization, fire behavior simulator, fire danger, fire propagation, Landsat-5 TM, live fuel moisture content}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12111714}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/11/1714}, author = {Mariano Garcia and David Ria{\~n}o and Marta Yebra and Javier Salas and Adrian Cardil and Santiago Monedero and Joaquin Ramirez and Pillar Martin and Lara Vilar and John Gajardo and Susan Ustin} } @inbook {bnh-6645, title = {Looking to Courts of Law for Disaster Justice}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {133-150}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {7}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

This chapter considers the implications of a desire to look to the courts of law to deliver a form of disaster justice by distributing those losses across the decision makers that contribute to vulnerability. It is argued that the state should consider alternatives to adversarial legal process in order to deliver disaster justice. A better approach would be to adopt {\textquoteleft}restorative practice{\textquoteright} inquiries{\textemdash}that is, inquiries that focus on the consequences of an event and which seek to understand why an event was important for those involved and how those involved can make sense, learn from and take responsibility for identifying and implementing learning from the event. Essential to the restorative process is consideration of making good financial losses without the need to blame.

}, keywords = {Compensation, Liability, Litigation, Restorative practices}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_7}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_7}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-7390, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts {\textendash} final project report}, number = {616}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel condition (e.g. moisture content, horizontal and vertical continuity and the quantity or load) affect flammability and therefore is a key determinant of the ease of ignition and the spread rate of a fire. Many research institutions and management services are investing an important amount of resources on field-based fuel condition monitoring to understand its dynamics and support operational fire management activities. However, field sampling is expensive and time-consuming, sometimes subjective and implies also a delay time until the data are processed and made available. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} used cutting-edge technology to produce near-real-time spatial information on fuel condition, fire hazard and impact to support a wide range of fire risk management and response activities such as hazard reduction burning and pre-positioning firefighting resources and, in the longer term, the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) given it considers fuel condition as ne of the key factors required to determine fire danger and support other decision -making.

The first phase of this project (2014-2017) involved the parallel investigation of several promising data sources and methods that can be categorised as either {\textquoteleft}in-field{\textquoteright} (grassland curing on-ground sensors and ground-based LiDAR laser scanning for fuel structure characterisation) or {\textquoteleft}national-scale{\textquoteright} (the Australian Flammability Monitoring System-AFMS, and the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) model-data fusion framework) methods. Generally, information derived from the national-scale methods appeared to represent enough accuracy and better return on investment and generated greater interest among end-users.

Consequently, over 2017-2020, this research project focused on ensuring the continuity of the AFMS but further developing the algorithms to estimate fuel moisture content (FMC), and through this, its acceptance and adoption. The AFMS provides information on FMC and flammability across Australia at 500m resolution every four days. It also displays information on soil moisture content near the surface (0-10 cm) and shallow soils (10-35 cm) as research outcomes from the project {\textquotedblleft}Improving land dryness measures and forecast{\textquotedblright}. Our research project also improved estimates of litter FMC by incorporating the effect of soil moisture content in existing physics-based models, developed a methodology to map fuel loads using satellite data and an objective and observation-based approach to assess fire danger that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia.

The improved litter FMC, fuel load and fire danger retrieval algorithms and products derived from this project are not yet included in the AFMS nor generated at near real-time and across Australia. Further research and development is needed to make that step and providing landscape scale, cost-effective way to comprehensively monitor fuel condition and fire danger at such a broad scale. Consequently, future research should focus on developing a multi-sensor system that will display daily information on fire danger and fuel condition from whatever satellite sensor has collected an image over Australia, including high-resolution satellite imagery. This will improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the information we currently provide at the AFMS that will allow the identification of, for example, local fuel moisture gradients in the landscape that are currently not identifiable using the 500m pixel resolution of the product we currently serve in the AFMS.

The use of high-resolution satellite imagery will provide an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy when estimating fuel condition, bringing the system closer to use in operations. However, the data volumes and large compute resources required to store and generate these high-resolution products becomes a challenge. Consequently, future research should also focus on developing an alternative methodology for computing fuel condition that can provide up to date estimations by reducing the required storage and computing resources using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, hazard, impacts, mapping}, issn = {616}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8096, title = {Measuring the social, environmental and economic consequences of bridge failure due to natural disasters}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {250}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

With an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in recent times, the vulnerability of infrastructure assets to such events is a major concern for governments and communities worldwide. The last decade has seen an increase in the number of hydro-meteorological disasters, which have caused major social, economic and environmental impacts on the regions affected. Road bridges tend to be one of the most vulnerable infrastructure assets to hydro-meteorological events, as they are designed to cross water-ways and are built across the natural flow of water. As bridges play a vital role in the recovery of a community after a disaster by providing access to the disaster zone, the reconstruction of damaged bridges is a significant aspect of post-disaster recovery.

The prioritisation and reconstruction of bridges tend to be carried out based on financial and engineering assessments, with very limited focus on the wider social, environmental and economic impacts of the decisions made. This thesis argues that a holistic approach in assessing and prioritising bridge reconstruction will increase the sustainability and resilience of the wider infrastructure system. The ensuing research project, part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, has explored the importance of a more holistic approach to assessing post-disaster reconstruction impacts and has developed a framework that could be followed by academics and practitioners for this purpose.

The research used a mixed-methods approach; it relied on both quantitative and qualitative data in a single study. As one of the main objectives of the PhD was developing a framework that could be used to assess wider impacts, an iterative process was adopted, which helped in continuously improving the framework with the new knowledge that was gathered throughout the course of the candidature. The review of literature revealed that the majority of post-disaster assessments and subsequent decision-making processes tend to pay less attention to the wider social, environmental and economic impacts of road infrastructure failure. The literature that incorporated wider aspects tends to be focussed on specific impact categories, with none of the studies capturing a comprehensive set of impacts. The literature review also provided the opportunity to analyse the different techniques used by scholars to assess wider impacts, in order to select the most appropriate techniques for the purpose of the study.

Potential end-users of the framework were interviewed to understand how decision making in relation to post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction takes place in a practical sense. The interviews helped the researcher to identify how decision making could be optimised in a resource and time constrained post-disaster setting. The practical requirements of the decision makers were considered to develop a more suitable framework, thus increasing its potential adoption among road reconstruction authorities.

The developed framework was applied to a real life disaster situation - a flood - in which two bridges were damaged, and the resulting social, environmental and economic impacts were assessed. As part of the research project, a toolkit based on the framework was developed in order to carry out this assessment. To the best of the author{\textquoteright}s knowledge, this was the first instance where a comprehensive set of sustainability related impacts of the failure of rural road bridges were assessed. Results showed that the total sustainability related impacts vary based on where the bridge is located, and impacts could range between 25-30\% of the total impacts.

The framework and toolkit were validated through a series of interviews with practitioners and academics working in the areas of infrastructure reconstruction and sustainability. The interviews helped in refining the toolkit to better suit practical applications, without compromising the required theoretical and academic rigour. The reliability of the results obtained through its application in the case studies was tested with a follow-up questionnaire survey to residents in the area and interviews with decision makers working in the region. A further sensitivity analysis of the results was conducted in order to understand how changes in the input values and external variables affect the results. It was found that the socio-economic impacts could be reduced significantly by allowing restricted volumes of traffic to use a bridge rather than being completely closed off during the reconstruction period. A Cost-Benefit Analysis using the developed toolkit could be performed to identify the optimal intervention techniques.

The outcomes of this PhD research can be used by both academics and practitioners in assessing the wider socio-economic and environmental consequences of road infrastructure damage. The toolkit developed through this research is planned to be further modified for use by disaster management and road agencies through a CRC Utilisation Project. The outcomes of this thesis can thus be used by infrastructure engineers to optimise their decision making processes, thereby driving increased sustainability of infrastructure systems and resilience to future disaster events.

}, keywords = {Bridge reconstruction, Disaster management, Infrastructure Engineering and Asset Management, Infrastructure failure, Post-disaster decision making, socio-economic impacts, Sustainability assessment}, url = {https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/esploro/outputs/doctoral/Measuring-the-social-environmental-and-economic-consequences-of-bridge-failure-due-to-natural-disasters/9921892204801341$\#$details}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake} } @article {bnh-7004, title = {The missing link in emergency management: evaluating community engagement}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {45-52}, abstract = {

Community engagement programs in Australia are widely adopted by emergency management organisations as one way to get communities to recognise hazards and risks and prepare for emergency events. However, evaluation of these programs remains a challenge. A study with 30 community engagement practitioners and managers from Australian emergency management organisations, councils and not-for-profit organisations was undertaken to examine how they use measurement and evaluation of community engagement for preparedness. The findings suggest that while community engagement teams understand the importance of measuring the effects of engagement efforts and preparedness activities, most still do not link engagement activities with higher-level engagement outcomes that influence communities.

}, keywords = {community, emergency events, engagement, Natural hazards, preparation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-the-missing-link-in-emergency-management-evaluating-community-engagement/}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston} } @article {bnh-7030, title = {Model predictions for fuel reduction burning of eucalypt open forest in the greater Blue Mountains region}, number = {587}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Prescribed burns are a land management tool used for reducing fuel loads in terrestrial ecosystems. Under extended drier, hotter weather conditions they might be used increasingly and more widely to help manage risk of wildfire and subsequent damage to life, property and natural assets. They also represent a form of disturbance to ecosystems, including their biodiversity and biogeochemistry. From a biogeochemistry perspective, we apply the FullCAM carbon accounting model to eucalypt open forest sites in the greater Blue Mountains region that underwent prescribed burns and fieldwork campaigns in 2019. Field data were used to derive values and estimates that guided model calibration and helped to explore the suitability of FullCAM for simulating the effect of prescribed burning on this ecosystem type. The diameter at breast height of overstorey and understorey trees, leaf area index and surface litter fractions were key measurements for estimating production, allocation, turnover (litter input to surface debris) and breakdown (output from surface debris) of carbon pools of forest components and hence, for calibrating FullCAM. Measurements for paired burnt/unburnt plots were key to estimating loss of carbon from forest component pools to the atmosphere due to prescribed fire. Simulation of unburnt forest component pools were reasonable as a calibration, although improvements in simulating fractions of surface litter would probably improve simulations of the effect of prescribed fire on forest component pools. Recommendations related to collection of field data and to model structure are made to improve alignment between model-data comparisons.

}, keywords = {Blue Mountains, eucalypt, Fuel reduction burning, modelling, open forest, predictions}, issn = {587}, author = {David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell and Danica Parnell} } @article {bnh-7575, title = {Modeling of Seismic Actions on Earth Retaining Structures}, journal = {Recent Advances in Computational Mechanics and Simulations}, volume = {103}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, pages = {247-256}, abstract = {

Present work deals with numerical modeling of seismic actions on earth retaining structures. Finite element (FE) analyses have been carried out on scaled-down retaining wall models. The capability of finite element models has been evaluated for the replication of shaking table experiment results. It was observed that FE models are highly sensitive to assigned nonlinear material models, especially for hardening and softening behavior of backfill soil. A detailed and simplified FE modeling procedure is explained for the simulation of seismic actions on earth retaining structures.

}, keywords = {Finite element modeling, Retaining wall, Shaking table experiment, Similitude}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8138-0_20}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-8138-0_20}, author = {Rohit Tiwari and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-6736, title = {Modeling Vorticity-Driven Wildfire Behavior Using Near-Field Techniques}, journal = {Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

Dynamic modes of fire propagation present a significant challenge for operational fire spread simulation. Current two-dimensional operational fire simulation platforms are not generally able to account for the complex interactions that drive such behaviors, and while fully coupled fire-atmosphere models are able to account for dynamic effects to an extent, their computational demands are prohibitive in an operational context. In this paper we consider techniques for extending two-dimensional fire spread simulators so that they are able to simulate certain dynamic fire behaviors. In particular, we consider modeling vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS), which is characterized by rapid lateral fire propagation across steep, leeward slopes. Specifically, we consider modeling the influence of the fire on the local surface airflow via a {\textquotedblleft}pyrogenic potential{\textquotedblright} model, which allows for vertical vorticity effects (in a near-field sense) using the Helmholtz decomposition. The ability of the resulting model to emulate fire propagation associated with VLS is demonstrated using a number of examples.

}, keywords = {Fire, fire-atmosphere, modelling, vorticity-driven lateral spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2019.00069}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmech.2019.00069/full}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton} } @article {bnh-6883, title = {Models and frameworks for assessing the value of disaster research}, journal = {Progress in Disaster Science}, volume = {6}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Funders, governments, stakeholders and end-users expect to see tangible evidence that an investment in research is a worthy use of resources. Research has impact if it makes a demonstrable contribution to the economy, society, culture, public policy, health, the environment, or quality of life, beyond academia.

This paper reviews frameworks that assess the impact of research and considers their usefulness in the conceptualisation and measurement of research impact in the disaster domain. Frameworks demonstrate impact through attribution, measurement and quantification of academic, social, and economic impacts in the short, medium and long term. While there is no specific framework in the hazard domain, adaptation of the {\textquotedblleft}pathways to research impact{\textquotedblright} tool created by Cruz Rivera et al. (2017) provides a well-considered basis for assessing disaster research impact.

}, keywords = {disaster, framework, Impact, research, Value, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100094}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061720300314?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Ken Strahan and Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @book {bnh-6848, title = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {368}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {London}, abstract = {

This book explores policy, legal, and practice implications regarding the emerging field of disaster justice, using case studies of floods, bushfires, heatwaves, and earthquakes in Australia and Southern and South-east Asia. It reveals geographic locational and social disadvantage and structural inequities that lead to increased risk and vulnerability to disaster, and which impact ability to recover post-disaster.\  Written by multidisciplinary disaster researchers, the book addresses all stages of the disaster management cycle, demonstrating or recommending just approaches to preparation, response and recovery. It notably reveals how procedural, distributional and interactional aspects of justice enhance resilience, and offers a cutting edge analysis of disaster justice for managers, policy makers, researchers in justice, climate change or emergency management.

}, keywords = {disaster justice, Emergency management, environmental sociology, framework, Natural hazards, policies}, isbn = {978-981-15-0466-2}, issn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811504655$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Claudia Baldwin} } @article {bnh-6733, title = {Navigating authority and legitimacy when {\textquoteleft}outsider{\textquoteright} volunteers co-produce emergency management services}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, abstract = {

This paper examines the thorny issue of authority and legitimacy in relation to {\textquoteleft}outsider{\textquoteright} emergency volunteering within the context of the community resilience policy agenda. Outsider emergency volunteering is any volunteering that: (a) aims to assist communities in any aspect of disaster preparedness, response, relief and recovery, and (b) is not registered with or under the direction of a formally recognised emergency management organisation (EMO). Hence, it does not have clear grounds to establish its authority and legitimacy within the formal authorising environment of the emergency management sector. The paper draws on co-production theory to examine how three important challenges for establishing authority and legitimacy were navigated in four Australian cases of co-production involving outsider emergency volunteering. Given the rise of resilience in disaster policy and the changing nature of volunteering in modern society, the very formalised and defined foundations of authority and legitimacy in emergency management will need to soften and expand to become more networked and distributed. The four cases described here shed some light on what softer and expanded foundations for authority and legitimacy can look like and the processes that can support them in the emergency management context.

}, keywords = {Australia, authority, co-production, Emergency management, legitimacy, Unaffiliated emergency volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2020.1727829}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2020.1727829}, author = {Blythe McLennan and J Whittaker and Tarn Kruger and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-6746, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: community experiences of bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {54-59}, abstract = {

This research examined how people directly affected by a catastrophic event respond to that event, individually and as a community. It shifts from concepts of {\textquoteleft}community-led{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}recovery{\textquoteright} after an event to a more pragmatic view of community disaster recovery. A catastrophic bushfire near Forcett, in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s south-east in 2013 is used to examine people{\textquoteright}s dependence on community and place to help then navigate the event. A constructivist grounded theory approach was used to identify a model of {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright}. This covers three phases of {\textquoteleft}Losing the familiar{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Restoring the familiar{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Living with change{\textquoteright}. These phases illustrate how people experience the perilous situation where lives were threatened and homes, communities and livelihoods damaged or destroyed. In such situations, people{\textquoteright}s decision-making and action are often underpinned by individual and collective values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, catastrophic events, community, recovery}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-navigating-uncertainty-community-experiences-of-bushfire/}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-6907, title = {Near infrared spectroscopy as a new fire severity metric}, number = {568}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Samples of leaves, twigs and bark representing typical surface fuels from forests and woodlands were systematically heated until combusted under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Change in colour of residue was described using R-conversion of the Munsell colour system and compared to colours generated from near infrared (NIR) scanning. Regardless of the method of heating used, there was very little change in physical properties or colour of residues when heated at low temperatures to 200

{\textdegree}C. Surface fuel samples began to thermally degrade when heated at 300 {\textdegree}C, which was reflected in much darker coloured residues that were mostly uniform in colour for different fuel types when determined from NIR spectroscopy. When surface fuels were combusted at temperatures between 400 and 600 {\textdegree}C, residues were much lighter in colour regardless of the type of fuel burnt. Again, residue colours were more uniform when described using NIR spectroscopy compared to the Munsell colour system, although differences in the consistency of residues (heterogenous production of charred material and ash) were still reflected in variations in shading. In several instances, colours resulting from NIR scans were closer to the actual colour of residues suggesting that it is a more accurate system than colour matching by eye using the Munsell colour system.

This study indicates that there is potential for NIR technology to be used to determine fire severity according to the colour of residue after fire. While the general method of colour matching is not new, the use of NIR spectroscopy can reduce inaccuracies associated with subjective colour matching and poor colour correlation when using some forms of automated colour conversion. As shown, spectroscopic methods such as NIR can also be used to assess chemical changes in fuels during thermal decomposition. This includes quantitative losses of carbon and nitrogen and estimating fire intensity according to the temperature that were required to form a particular residue.

}, keywords = {fire severity, infrared, metrics, spectroscopy}, issn = {568}, author = {Danica Parnell and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-6902, title = {Non-Additive Effects of Forest Litter on Flammability}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Forest litter is a fuel component that is important for the propagation of fire. Data describing fuel load, structure and fuel condition were gathered for two sites of Sydney Coastal Dry Sclerophyll Forest, a common vegetation type in the Sydney Basin, Australia. Surface litter from the sites was sorted into its constituent components and used to establish which component or mixture of components were the most flammable using several metrics. A general blending model was used to estimate the effect the different mixtures had on the response of the flammability metrics and identify non-additive effects. Optimisation methods were applied to the models to determine the mixture compositions that were the most or least flammable. Differences in the flammability of the two sites were significant and were driven by\ Allocasuarina littoralis. The presence of\ A. littoralis\ in litter mixtures caused non-additive effects, increasing the rate of flame spread and flame height non-linearly. We discuss how land managers could use these models as a tool to assist in prioritising areas for hazard reduction burns and how the methodology can be extended to other fuel conditions or forest types.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, general blending model, land management, non-additive effect, prescribed burn, simplex centroid design}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3020012}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/2/12}, author = {Angela Gormley and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7700, title = {Non-technical skills for emergency incident management teams: A literature review}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Every year, incident management teams (IMTs) coordinate the response to hundreds of emergency events across Australasia. Larger scale emergencies such as a storms, floods, wildfires, oil spills and chemical explosions can place a lot of pressure on an IMT. Non-technical skills play a central role in the performance of these teams. This article reviewed the broader non-technical skills (NTS) literature before focusing on the NTS required for emergency management. It was found that most NTS frameworks share four to five common skill categories, although there were greater differences at the element and behavioural marker level. A variety of issues were identified in the literature that highlight that emergency management is very different from other domains where NTS systems have been developed. The literature on NTS in conjunction with this set of issues was used to develop a proposed NTS framework for emergency IMTs. This framework comprises 7 skill categories (i.e. communication, coordination, cooperation, decision-making, situation awareness, leadership and coping, stress and fatigue management). The 7 skills can be further delineated into 16 elements and 44 behavioural markers. The framework provides a prototype that can form the basis for further research in this area.

}, keywords = {decision-making, Emergency management, incident management, non-technical skills, teams, teamwork}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12341}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-5973.12341}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Philip Butler and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-7483, title = {Numerical analysis and parametric study of unreinforced masonry walls with arch openings under lateral in-plane loading}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {208}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This paper presents numerical modelling of the in-plane shear behaviour of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls with a semicircular arch opening. To do so, two dimensional finite element (FE) modelling of a series of experimentally tested walls was conducted using the simplified micro-modelling approach. The models successfully captured the load-displacement behaviour and, to a large extent, the failure modes of the piers and spandrels observed in the experimentally tested walls. The exception was that the FE modelling did not show pier diagonal shear cracking which was observed in some of the tested walls. The model was then used to perform parametric studies to investigate the effect of geometric variations of the walls as well as the effect of vertical pre-compression stresses on the lateral in-plane capacity of the walls. The results obtained from the FE analyses were compared to the anticipated maximum shear strength and the predicted failure modes according to the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering (NZSEE, 2017). From this study, it is shown that there is a significant effect of the wall geometry and vertical pre-compression load on the failure modes and the lateral load resistance capacity of the walls. In most of the cases investigated, the NZSEE equations for maximum shear strength and failure modes agree well with the FEM results. The arch opening was remodelled to a rectangular opening and it was found that the effective pier height for an equivalent rectangular pier adjacent to a semi-circular arched opening can be taken up to the half height of the arch radius.

}, keywords = {Unreinforced masonryIn-plane lateral loadingFEMAspect ratioPre-compression loadWall openingsPiersSpandrels}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.110337}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141029619336867}, author = {Milon Howlader and Mark Masia and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-7299, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {606}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made good progress over the past 12 months and have completed a number of milestones. Fieldwork and analysis of associated samples has ben completed and the data sets generated have formed the basis of our modelling efforts. Research has included: (i) landscape-scale modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on evapotranspiration as the main driver for water use by vegetation; (ii) calibration and testing of FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems, that we have shown is sensitive enough to integrate changes due to prescribed burning; (iii) testing of a fine fuel model that can be used to determine changes in biomass (fuel load) and carbon content in surface fuels without laborious sample collection and analysis; and (iv) use of near infrared spectroscopy to determine fire intensity and severity.

Modelling using FullCAM and the fine fuel model are tools that have very good potential to be adopted by end-user agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. For example, the fine fuel model is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. Our recent advances with near infrared spectroscopy of fire residues suggests that the next steps will be to move from a laboratory setting to the field to test the efficacy of hand-held devices. The potential to develop a simple, yet accurate method for determining fire intensity would aid in ground-truthing of fires to replace current methods that are mostly subjective.

Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports (draft reports and Technical Reports), bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our end-users, and presentations for local, national and international audiences. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary end-user and have continued collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. As our project ends, we will produce a synthesis of our research and will develop it further for peer-review publications.

}, keywords = {burning regimes, carbon, fuel reduction, vegetation, water}, issn = {606}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8092, title = {Optimising SAR-based flood extent assimilation for improved hydraulic flood inundation forecasts}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, pages = {363}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Accurate forecasts of flood inundation are vital to effective flood rescue, response, and resource allocation. However, uncertainty in inputs, boundaries, and parameters necessitate the use of independent observations to constrain flood predictions. Radar remote sensing allows the synoptic and systematic coverage of flooded areas and is thus a valuable resource for more accurate flood forecasts when combined with models. Accordingly, this thesis first improved the satellite-based probabilistic flood extent observation, and then designed a novel likelihood function to integrate such observations with flood model estimates yielding improved flood inundation forecasts.

}, keywords = {crowdsourcing, data assimilation, flood forecasting, flood inundation mapping, flood inundation modelling, hydraulic modelling, mutual information, sensitivity analysis, synthetic aperture radar, uncertainty reduction}, url = {https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/thesis/Optimizing_SAR-based_Flood_Extent_Assimilation_for_Improved_Hydraulic_Flood_Inundation_Forecasts/12375188}, author = {Antara Dasgupta} } @article {bnh-7687, title = {Performance of geotechnical seismic isolation system using rubber-soil mixtures in centrifuge testing}, journal = {Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

Geotechnical seismic isolation (GSI) system involves the dynamic interaction between structure and low-modulus foundation material, such as rubber-soil mixtures (RSM). Whilst numerical studies have been carried out to demonstrate the potential benefits of GSI-RSM system, experimental research is indispensable for confirming its isolation mechanism and effectiveness in reducing structural demand. In this regard, centrifuge modelling with an earthquake shaker under an acceleration field of 50\ g adopted in this study can mimic the actual nonlinear dynamic response characteristics of RSM and subsoil in a coupled soil-foundation-structure system. This is the first time the performance of GSI-RSM system was examined in a geotechnical centrifuge. It was found that an average of 40-50\% reduction of structural demand can be achieved. The increase in both the horizontal and rotation responses of the foundation was also evidenced. The unique augmented rocking mechanism with reversible foundation rotation was highlighted.

}, keywords = {augmented rocking mechanism, centrifuge, geotechnical seismic isolation, rubber-soil mixtures, waste tyre}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3398}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eqe.3398}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Duc-Phu Tran and Wen-Yi Hung and Kyriazis Pitilakis and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-6819, title = {Physics-based simulation of firebrand and heat flux on structures in the context of AS3959}, number = {560}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Firebrand is known as one of the most dangerous airborne components of wildfires having the potential to ignite structures in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). Quantifying the firebrand and heat flux on structures is essential to determine the wildfire risks and prepare strategic plans to mitigate the hazard. We endeavor to use a physics-based model, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) to map firebrand and heat flux to determine the vulnerability of structures in WUI. In this study, we have validated FDS{\textquoteright} tree burning and firebrand transporting sub-models against the experiment conducted in no wind condition at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The experimental data of firebands were processed to use as inputs in the numerical simulation and the grid convergence was appraised in terms of mass loss rate (MLR). The intial velocity and direction of firebrands, the number of generations were determined as model inputs by a reverse analysis through comparing firebrand distribution with the experiment. As the FDS{\textquoteright} sub-models were validated, we attempted to quantify the heat flux and firebrand risk on a structure at three different driving wind velocities. Increasing wind speed showed more firebrands transported towards the structure but none of them landed on the house because of the low height of the tree and insufficiency of fire-induced buoyancy to lift them enough to carry a longer distance by the wind field. Similarly, heat flux computed on the structure is well below Australian building standard AS3959{\textquoteright}s bushfire attack level (BAL). it is due to the low heat release by single tree burning instead of a 100m wide fire line assumed in the standard. In future study, simulations will be conducted with a cluster of taller trees (100m wide) to quantify the heat flux and firebrand hazard on structures to apprise AS3959.

}, keywords = {firebrand, heat flux, physics simulation, structures}, issn = {560}, author = {Amila Wickramasinghe and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6632, title = {Physics-based simulation of short-range spotting in wildfires}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Firebrands play a vital role in the propagation of fire fronts and starting new fires called spotfires ahead of fire fronts during wildfire progression. Firebrands are a harbinger of damage to infrastructure; their effects cause a particularly important threat to people living within the wildland-urban-interface, hampers the suppression of the wildfire or even blocking the evacuation routes for communities and emergency services. Short-range firebrands (\<750m) which travel along with the wind with little or no lofting are particularly crucial in increasing the fire front propagation and damaging structures situated closed to wildland-urban interface. In the Daylesford fire of 1962, massive short-range spotting (the process of spot fire ignition and merging of spots caused by firebrands) occurred in eucalyptus forest and increased the rate of fire spread by roughly three times more than the computed using empiricial correlation used by operational fire model. Despite the massive importance of short-range firebrands, little research has been conducted because of the safety risks and challenges of fire to emergency service personnel and to the remote equipment like collection boxes, IR cameras, UAVs, which could be used by researchers to quantify and measure fire properties. An operational model to represent the transport of short-range firebrand and their likelihood to ignite the surface fuel like forest litter could be developed from a numerical model. This study first attempts to validate a numerical model of firebrand transport with a set of benchmark experiments. The validation of numerical model is carried out using idealised regular shaped firebrand. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is an open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based fire model which is used in this study. The validation of the numerical model is split into two parts focusing on validation of (1) transport, and (2) ignition potential of firebrands. Transport of short range firebrands are modelled in FDS using a lagrangian particle sub-model. The model was validated using two firebrand generators (a plastic pipe-based prototype and stainless steel based main firebrand generator) constructed at our facility as a part of this study. The firebrand generator is equipment which generates a repeatable firebrand shower in a confined space. There are few firebrand dragons built around the world. However, our firebrand generators produce a uniform flow field which simplifies the transport of short-range firebrand to be validated. The set of experiments conducted is used to validate the Lagrangian particle model available in FDS used in the transport of short-range firebrands. The validation is carried out on cubiform, cylindrical, and square disc-shaped firebrands. As the default drag model in FDS was not suitable for shapes of firebrands, the drag model is improved to account for a generic shape of firebrand particle. The results show a reasonable agreement with the experiments for all three shapes over a range of particle Reynolds number. A set of laboratory scale equipment is used to study the ignition likelihood from a short-range firebrand in the numerical model. The boundary fuel vegetation model of FDS is validated. The pyrolysis of vegetation is first tested using thermogravimetric analyser and then with cone calorimeter to estimate mass loss rate, heat-release rate, and time to sustained flaming ignition of three forest litter (pine, eucalyptus, and hay) fuels. Further, a set of thermo-physical properties (thermal conductivity, heat capacity, the heat of pyrolysis, the heat of combustion) of the material tested are also measured using in-house equipment required in the above numerical model. The result showed that the simple linear pyrolysis model is good enough for different forest litter tested with thermogravimetric analyser and cone calorimeter. Finally, a parametric study of short-range firebrand transport inside an open woodland forest canopy is carried out using the validated Lagrangian particle sub-model. The work focuses on understanding how firebrand distribution varies with a set of variable firebrand characteristics in a wildfire and set a stepping stone for the future study. The results are found to be qualitatively similar to the literature.

}, keywords = {Fire, Firebrands, fluid dynamics, simulation, spotting, transport, Wildfire}, url = {http://vuir.vu.edu.au/40025/}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani} } @article {bnh-7359, title = {Physics-Based Simulations of Flow and Fire Development Downstream of a Canopy}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, abstract = {

The behavior of a grassland fire propagating downstream of a forest canopy has been simulated numerically using the fully physics-based wildfire model FIRESTAR3D. This configuration reproduces quite accurately the situation encountered when a wildfire spreads from a forest to an open grassland, as can be the case in a fuel break or a clearing, or during a prescribed burning operation. One of the objectives of this study was to evaluate the impact of the presence of a canopy upstream of a grassfire, especially the modifications of the local wind conditions before and inside a clearing or a fuel break. The knowledge of this kind of information constitutes a major element in improving the safety conditions of forest managers and firefighters in charge of firefighting or prescribed burning operations in such configurations. Another objective was to study the behavior of the fire under realistic turbulent flow conditions, i.e., flow resulting from the interaction between an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with a surrounding canopy. Therefore, the study was divided into two phases. The first phase consisted of generating an ABL/canopy turbulent flow above a pine forest (10 m high, 200 m long) using periodic boundary conditions along the streamwise direction. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) were carried out for a sufficiently long time to achieve a quasi-fully developed turbulence. The second phase consisted of simulating the propagation of a surface fire through a grassland, bordered upstream by a forest section (having the same characteristics used for the first step), while imposing the turbulent flow obtained from the first step as a dynamic inlet condition to the domain. The simulations were carried out for a wind speed that ranged between 1 and 12 m/s; these values have allowed the simulations to cover the two regimes of propagation of surfaces fires, namely plume-dominated and wind-driven fires

}, keywords = {canopy, fire spread, grassland fire, Large Eddy Simulation, physics-based model}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070683}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/7/683}, author = {Gilbert Accary and Duncan Sutherland and Nicolas Frangieh and Khalid Moinuddin and Ibrahim Shamseddine and Sofiane Merdji and Dominique Morvan} } @article {bnh-6809, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters}, number = {557}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe, with the Spanish Flu (1918-19) and Cyclone Tracey (1974) being perhaps two historic examples that have overwhelmed systems of management. Catastrophic events require the adoption of a whole community approach. However, this is challenged by the culture of emergency services and wider community apathy. This report provides insights into the preparedness for catastrophic disasters based upon a review of the global literature. Implications for practitioners are discussed to assist in strengthening capability and capacity to reduce the likelihood of becoming overwhelmed.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading disasters, Catastrophic, Planning}, issn = {557}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-7705, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters - final project report}, number = {634}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background

Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters\ was a three-year research project focusing on the research questions of:

The research\ was based on literature reviews; interviews with representatives from emergency management organisations, businesses and community organisations; analysis of historical disaster loss data and content analysis of previous business contributions to disaster responses.

Findings

While\ a truly catastrophic disaster is by definition unmanageable, emergency managers can still help reduce loss of life and property and assist in sustaining the continuity of affected communities (Harrald, 2006). However, business-as-usual response strategies that work for smaller, more frequent events will not cut it in truly catastrophic circumstances. Often the success of the response is reliant upon the capacities already present in communities. Emergency managers must look to bolster these extant capacities.

Emergency services need to conceptualise how their service delivery models will have to adjust to the overwhelming demand for services and the complexity of catastrophes, including how they will anticipate and work with community first responders. Emergency management organisations must define capabilities they are best able to deliver in support of wider community efforts. For other capabilities, planners should look to community-based sources to supplement those available within government and consider altering service delivery standards.

Our results support existing well defined principles for disaster planning and risk reduction (Alexander, 2005): however, we found they are not effectively implemented to develop plans that consistently inform decision making. Planning is being inhibited by cultural, knowledge and resource constraints dominated by reactive response-oriented approaches.

There is a lack of knowledge regarding collective capability requirements and gaps to manage severe-to-catastrophic disasters. Unlike the defence forces, emergency services collectively lack a long-term view of capability\ requirements. There is need for a collective national view of future capability\ requirements to inform investment.

Severe-to-catastrophic disasters will require resources beyond the impacted\ jurisdiction. Although resources are already shared between jurisdictions, there is\ a need to bolster approaches for jurisdictions to work seamlessly together,\ including investments to enhance interoperability and to strengthen\ mechanisms of national coordination. The Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s role must also be\ defined by Commonwealth emergency management legislation as has\ previously been recommended (Eburn et al., 2019).

The need for strengthening national coordination arrangements is reinforced by\ analysis of historical compound disasters, which shows that it is possible for\ numerous concurrent or sequential severe disasters to occur across multiple\ jurisdictions, resulting in potential resource conflicts across jurisdictions.

Our research ultimately supports the principle of shared responsibility. The whole-of-community approach recognises that any severe-to-catastrophic disaster will\ involve whole-of-society responses. Despite the recognition of the value of\ businesses and community organisations in the National Strategy for Disaster\ Resilience, emergency management approaches are based on an inadequate\ view of community organisation and business capabilities and the culture\ remains largely government-centric.

Governments, whilst considering the lessons of previous disasters, must be\ proactive, forward looking and risk-based. Capability and capacity\ requirements for severe-to-catastrophic disasters will likely evolve into the future\ due to societal, environmental and technological changes. Technology offers\ significant opportunities to enhance capabilities.

Ultimately, our research supports the need for further efforts to mitigate disaster\ risk and build resilience, similar to recommendations of the Productivity\ Commission and APRA.

Utilisation\ 

The\ project adopted a collaborative approach with end-users assisting to define\ research questions and utilisation outputs. A key utilisation output from the\ research has been an emergency management capability maturity assessment\ tool that can be utilised by jurisdictions and organisations to better understand\ potential capability gaps in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disaster\ scenarios. Through utilisation funding provided by the Bushfire and Natural\ Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, this tool will be promoted for use across\ all jurisdictions.

Following analysis of emergency management legislation, a model\ Commonwealth Emergency Management Act was drafted for consideration by\ end-users.

Outcomes of the research were presented as evidence to the 2020 Royal Commission\ into National Natural Disaster Arrangements.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading, Catastrophic, disasters, Planning}, issn = {634}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George and Michael Eburn and John McAneney and Matthew Timms and Stuart Browning} } @article {bnh-7484, title = {Plasticity of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits in Eucalyptus grandis and E. regnans grown under variable light and nitrogen availability}, journal = {Frontiers in Forests and Global Change}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, abstract = {

Plant growth strategies are adapted to resource availability in native habitat(s), and thus reflected in traits such as photosynthetic and respiratory capacities of leaves. We explored acclimation of such traits to contrasting light and nitrogen supply for Flooded Gum (Eucalyptus grandis) and Mountain Ash (E. regnans) saplings growing under warm-temperate conditions. We focused on respiration parameters that are not routinely measured, but could expand our mechanistic understanding of trait correlation networks [interdependencies between leaf mass per area (LMA), foliar nitrogen concentration (Nmass), photosynthetic capacity (mass- based Amax) and respiration (R)]. We measured temperature responses of leaf R via calorimetric methods, in order to derive three respiration parameters that are useful to characterize capacity and flux mode of respiratory oxygen reduction in mature source leaves and young sink leaves. Subtropical\ E. grandis\ saplings produced 3-fold more biomass than\ E. regnans, and responded more strongly to enhanced supplies of nitrogen, in particular under semi-shade conditions. Acclimation of LMA to growth irradiance was more plastic in\ E. grandis, but light treatment had no effect on Nmass\ and mass-based Amax\ in this species. In\ E. regnans, growth under abundant nitrogen and full sunlight caused significant increases in foliar Nmass{\textendash}albeit not matched by relatively modest increases in mass-based Amax. Cool-temperate\ E. regnans\ saplings appeared to allocate a substantial share of leaf-N to protective functions upon exposure to full sunlight. Foliar nitrogen was used more effectively for the production of new foliage in\ E. grandis, owing to better coordination with foliar capacity and flux mode of mitochondrial oxygen reduction. Most of the variation in three respiration parameters can be explained by a few physiological/anatomical variables, responding to variation in absolute and relative demand for ATP, reducing power and anabolic intermediates. These demands strongly depended on leaf developmental stage and also varied between species and treatments. Our approach opens a path to improved process- based understanding of respiratory flux control, which could facilitate predictions of plant respiration in a changing environment.

}, keywords = {Eucalyptus forest, forest}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.00005}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2020.00005/full}, author = {Jorg Kruse and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Heinz Rennenberg and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-6224, title = {Post-disaster Impact Assessment of Road Infrastructure: A State of the Art Review}, journal = {Natural Hazards Review}, volume = {21}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, abstract = {

Road infrastructure is a vital aspect in transportation systems and can be severely affected by disasters. Postdisaster impact assessment is vital for the repair and reconstruction of such infrastructure, which is constrained by budget and time. This review provides a detailed analysis of prior literature on postdisaster impact assessments of road infrastructure. The related methods used in the literature were analyzed based on their classifications, such as social, environmental, and economic impacts of road failure. It was determined that although a wide range of methods have been used to assess economic impacts, there is still a lack of research measuring environmental and indirect social impacts. Prior literature has also highlighted that the use of bottom-up models to assess socioeconomic impacts is more relevant in the aftermath of a disaster. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature and guidelines for selecting the most appropriate method to assess impacts. This review aims to provide a frame of reference for researchers and government authorities involved in postdisaster impact assessment and decision making related to road infrastructure.

}, keywords = {Infrastructure, post disaster, road, State-of-the-art review}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000343}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29NH.1527-6996.0000343}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Guomin Zhang and Tehmina Khan and Hessam Mohseni} } @article {bnh-6592, title = {Post-inquiry sensemaking: the case of the {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires}, journal = {Organization Studies}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

We examine post-inquiry sensemaking by emergency management practitioners following an inquiry into the most damaging bushfire disaster in Australia{\textquoteright}s history. We theorize a model of post-inquiry sensemaking with four distinct but overlapping phases during which sensemaking becomes more prospective over time. In addition to providing important insights into what has, hitherto, been a neglected arena for sensemaking studies, i.e. post-inquiry sensemaking, we contribute to the understanding of sensemaking more generally. Specifically, we show the complex nature of the relationship between sensemaking and equivocality, explain how multiple frames enhance sensemaking, and explore temporality in sensemaking over time.

}, keywords = {interpretive scheme, Learning, organizational learning, sensemaking theory, single case study, vicarious learning}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840619896271}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0170840619896271}, author = {Graham Dwyer and Cynthia Hardy and Steve Maguire} } @article {bnh-7041, title = {Prevalence and predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviours among Australian police and emergency services employees}, journal = { Australian \& New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

Objective:

This study presents rates of suicide thoughts and behaviours of police and emergency services personnel around Australia. In addition, it examines personal (i.e. mental health, substance use) and working environment risk and protective factors.

Method:

A stratified random sample of personnel from 33 Australian emergency services organisations were invited to participate in a mental health and wellbeing survey. In total, 14,868 Australian ambulance, fire and rescue, police and state emergency services employees participated and self-reported any suicidal thoughts, plans and/or attempts in the 12 months prior to the survey or at any stage in their life. Logistic regressions assessed factors associated with suicidal thoughts and behaviours.

Results:

Employees reported notably higher rates of suicidal thoughts and plans than the general Australian adult population, but not attempts. Male, single/divorced, non-heterosexual or longer-serving employees reported higher rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviours across each sector. Perceptions of stigma regarding mental health conditions from others in the workplace, negative impact of work on one{\textquoteright}s private life and low meaning of work were associated with suicidal thoughts, while bullying significantly differentiated who planned and attempted suicide from those who reported suicidal thoughts only. Higher resilience and social support were associated with lower suicidal thoughts, while intermittent explosive anger and illegal drug use were associated with higher rates of suicidal thoughts. Post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms significantly differentiated who planned suicide, while misuse of prescription drugs and psychological distress differentiated who attempted suicide from those who only reported suicidal thoughts.

Conclusion:

Amid inherently stressful occupations, it is important that workplaces function in a way that supports their personnel. Access to mental health services should be promoted and readily available to personnel.

}, keywords = {Ambulance, depression, firefighters, post-traumatic stress disorder, suicide}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867420937774}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0004867420937774}, author = {Michael Kyron and Wavne Rikkers and Andrew Page and Patrice O{\textquoteright}Brien and Jennifer Bartlett and Anthony LaMontagne and David Lawrence} } @article {bnh-7500, title = {Professionalism: certification for emergency management leaders}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {56-60}, abstract = {

Disastrous bushfires in the summer of 2019{\textendash}2020 in Australia were part of a series of climate-related emergency events previously unimagined. Australia, coming out of its worst-recorded drought, has been hit by long-running bushfires, floods, coastal erosion and the global COVID-19 pandemic. To combat concurrent and compounding events like these, emergency services personnel and police, including paid and volunteer-led teams, had to adapt their response and recovery activities. For the first time, these activities were supported by a large Australian Defence Force contingent. Many emergency management teams were also supplemented by international colleagues, thus forming integrated and multi-agency teams. In such response environments, team leaders applied learning and experience they had developed in operational settings to be effective in response and recovery efforts. The human capacities of leaders are different and are founded on recruiting, cultural background, training, education and experiential opportunities. Recognising each person{\textquoteright}s leadership capacity can be difficult and can reduce the efficiency of response and recovery. This paper examines current options and arrangements that exist through national and international certification systems. The purpose is to establish a simple and recognisable understanding of emergency managers{\textquoteright} skills. This paper draws from research that examines the human-capacity lessons from past events that develop future emergency managers.

}, keywords = {certification, Emergency management, leaders, professionalism}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-professionalism-certification-for-emergency-management-leaders/}, author = {Russell Dippy} } @article {bnh-6782, title = {Progress report on case study CBD precinct}, number = {552}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings. It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:

This project also includes a case study to demonstrate the utility of the research with central Melbourne identified as the locality. Central Melbourne has a concentration of older unreinforced masonry buildings so the case study will examine the current risk posed by these and how they can be mitigated through application of the measures developed in this CRC project. Significantly this project will link to the concluding utilisation project on York and will integrate research outcomes on heritage value to be developed by the CRC project {\textquotedblleft}Economics of Natural Hazards{\textquotedblright} led by the University of Western Australia. This progress report describes the scope, the research elements and status of these, and the process by which they are being integrated into the final research outcomes. It also provides background to a requested variation to delay the final deliverable and associated CRC payment to enable other research outputs to be integrated.

This report corresponds with the 30 September 2019 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Progress Report on Case Study CBSD Precinct{\textquotedblright}, BNHCRC reference 3.1.2.

}, keywords = {buildings, cbd, Decision making, earthquake risk, mitigation}, issn = {552}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Mark Edwards and Itismita Mohanty} } @article {bnh-6885, title = {Progressive failures of batten to rafter connections under fluctuating wind loads}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {215}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Batten to rafter connections in light framed timber housing can be vulnerable to wind loading, and failures of these connections are one of the more common failure modes seen in post windstorm damage surveys. Such failures often occur in a progressive or cascading manner resulting in the loss of a large section of the roof envelope. These progressive failures of batten to rafter connections are a complex process influenced by the pressure fluctuations on the roof surface, the response of individual connections and the behaviour of the structural system as a whole. This study presents a method for examining load redistribution and progressive failure behaviour of batten to rafter connections in light framed structures. Nonlinear time history analyses were performed using a finite element model using fluctuating pressures determined from a wind tunnel study and connection properties determined from laboratory testing of connections under dynamic loads.

}, keywords = {Light framed structures, Low-rise buildings, progressive failures, wind loads}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.110684}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141029619346395}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @inbook {bnh-6646, title = {Public Policy and Disaster Justice}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {51-71}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {3}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Issues of unequal vulnerability to disasters, and uneven access to assistance and decision making, are core challenges in disaster policy, but not generally explored from a justice perspective. This chapter considers justice through six standard lenses of public policy: (1) whether justice-relevant decisions are a matter for public policy or more value-rich politics; (2) if the former, where in the policy process they can be attended to; (3) which entity has responsibility over the matter; (4) in addition to formal responsibilities, what actors outside of government contribute to justice or injustices; (5) whether justice is a matter of disaster policy, or another policy sector; and (6) whether enhancement of existing policies can provide remedy, or new mechanisms are needed.

}, keywords = {disasters, Emergency management, Justice, Public policy}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_3}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_3}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-7773, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: Assessing the atmospheric potential for pyroCb}, journal = {Weather and Forecasting}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are difficult to predict and can produce extreme and unexpected wildfire behaviour that can be very hazardous to fire crews. Many forecasters modify conventional thunderstorm diagnostics to predict pyroCb potential, by adding temperature (Δθ) and moisture increments (Δq) to represent smoke plume thermodynamics near the expected plume condensation level. However, estimating these Δθ\ and Δq\ increments is a highly subjective process that requires expert knowledge of all factors that might influence future fire size and intensity. In this paper, instead of trying to anticipate these Δθ\ and Δq\ increments for a particular fire, the minimum firepower required to generate pyroCb for a given atmospheric environment is considered. This concept, termed the PyroCb Firepower Threshold (PFT) requires only atmospheric information, removing the need for subjective estimates of the fire contribution.

A simple approach to calculating PFT is presented that incorporates only basic plume-rise physics, yielding an analytic solution that offers important insight into plume behaviour and pyroCb formation. Minimum increments of Δθ\ and Δq\ required for deep, moist convection, plus a minimum cloud-base height (Zfc), are diagnosed on a thermodynamic diagram. Briggs plume rise equations are used to convert Δθ,\ Zfc, and a mean horizontal windspeed (U) to a measure of the PFT: the minimum heat flux entering the base of the plume. This PFT is proportional to the product of\ U, Δθ, and the square of\ Zfc. Plume behaviour insights provided by the Briggs equations are discussed, and a selection of PFT examples presented.

}, keywords = {atmosphere, fire power, Fire weather, meteorology, pyrocumulonimbus}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0027.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-20-0027.1/WAF-D-20-0027.1.xml}, author = {KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-7501, title = {Quantifying fuel hazard assessments - Fuels3D annual report 2018-2019}, number = {627}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report summarises the year 2019 for the Fuels3D project.\  This project was funded as half a project; the work considers the lack of repeatability and reliability with current field fuel hazard assessments. It demonstrates the precision of a semi-automated non-visual based assessments as compared to those collected through traditional visual assessment.\  The opportunity to bring together off-the-shelf, smart phone cameras and consumer grade digital cameras with advances in computer vision and photogrammetric techniques provide a cheap alternative for quantitative assessments compared to more accurate, but more expensive 3D mapping technologies (i.e. Lidar TLS).\  A tool chain and suite of computer vision and photogrammetric algorithms that use images captured in the field to produce 3D point clouds from which fuel hazard metrics are calculated. The developed technique is adaptive to 3D point clouds captured from other terrestrial technologies and can allow for changes in data collection technologies.

Highlights of 2018-2019 have included:

}, keywords = {fuel, fuels3D, hazard assessments, quantifying}, issn = {627}, author = {Bryan Hally and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-7413, title = {Quantifying fuel hazard assessments - Fuels3D annual report 2019-2020}, number = {619}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report summarises the year 2019 for the Fuels3D project.\  This project was funded as half a project; the work considers the lack of repeatability and reliability with current field fuel hazard assessments. It demonstrates the precision of a semi-automated non-visual based assessments as compared to those collected through traditional visual assessment.\  The opportunity to bring together off-the-shelf, smart phone cameras and consumer grade digital cameras with advances in computer vision and photogrammetric techniques provide a cheap alternative for quantitative assessments compared to more accurate, but more expensive 3D mapping technologies (i.e. Lidar TLS).\  A tool chain and suite of computer vision and photogrammetric algorithms that use images captured in the field to produce 3D point clouds from which fuel hazard metrics are calculated. The developed technique is adaptive to 3D point clouds captured from other terrestrial technologies and can allow for changes in data collection technologies.

Highlights of 2018-2019 have included:

}, keywords = {fuel hazard, fuels3D}, issn = {619}, author = {Bryan Hally and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-6978, title = {Quantifying the conversion of vegetation to ash for soil carbon fingerprinting}, number = {572}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Samples of leaves, twigs and bark representing typical surface fuels from forests and woodlands were systematically heated and combusted under controlled conditions. Very little biomass, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) was lost when heated at low temperatures to 200 {\textdegree} and greatest losses occurred between 400 and 600

{\textdegree}C, regardless of the type of fuel burnt. Losses of C and N varied considerably with temperature. Carbon was lost when fuels were heated at temperatures of 300 {\textdegree}C or more. Nitrogen was relatively more abundant when heated at 400 {\textdegree}C, albeit at very low levels (less than 5\%). When heating time was varied there were noticeable differences in patterns of weight loss and changes in proportions of C and N. This indicates that both fire intensity and residence time is likely to be important in understanding losses of C and nutrients during fire, particularly during low intensity prescribed burning.

The use of colour of residues after heating surface fuel has the potential to determine fire severity. Existing technology such as near infra-red scanners can measure ash colour, not only indicating fire severity but also, by association, C and N losses from fire. Combustion studies done in a well-controlled laboratory environment could be used to interpret fireground conditions in relation to fire intensity and residence time, according to the nature and amount of charred material, charcoal and ash that remains after fire.

}, keywords = {Ash, milestone, soil carbon fingerprinting, vegetation}, issn = {572}, author = {Danica Parnell and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-8134, title = {The real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold}, number = {694}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This document reviews the real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT) diagnostic during the 2019/2020 southern Australian fire season. The PFT was developed with support from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, through the {\textquotedblleft}Improved prediction of severe weather to reduce community impact{\textquotedblright} project. While this report was primarily prepared to meet project requirements, it contains useful information and insight into the PFT and deep moist pyro-convection prediction more generally, that should be of value to fire-weather forecasters, fire-behaviour analysts and their parent agencies.

The report introduces the PFT in Section 1 and shows examples of the forecast products from the 2019/2020 season in Section 2. Throughout the trial users provided feedback that ranged from technical issues to broader forecasting challenges. This feedback identified confusion surrounding the definition of pyroCb (Section 3), and difficulties in forecasting this not-well-defined and not- well-understood phenomenon (Section 4). Many examples are presented in Section 5 to illustrate some of the more pertinent issues that arose throughout the trial. These include the limitations of using parcel theory to predict moist- plume growth, and the need to include more factors in lightning prediction. Examples are also provided that illustrate the limitations of various PFT products. The application of the PFT to climate studies is discussed in Section 6, where the minimising of false positives is of higher importance than for forecasting applications where expert users can separate real from false threats. Methods to address two of the issues raised in the report were developed with support from the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s National Environmental Science Programme. These are the reduction of false positives caused by unstable conditions during cold- outbreaks, and a procedure to bypass the parcel-theory assumption (Section 7). The report is summarized in Section 8, which includes a set of dot points that highlight areas for future investigation and lessons learned.

}, keywords = {extreme, firepower, PFT, pyrocumulonimbus, real-time, threshold, trial}, issn = {694}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-6638, title = {Recirculation regions downstream of a canopy on a hill}, number = {538}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The large eddy simulation (LES) is performed to study the flow characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer over forested hills. The sparse and dense canopies are introduced in the hill structure and modelled by homogenous leaf area density. A pressure driven flow is established under neutrally stratified condition to explore the effect of hill and canopy induced perturbations including velocity speed-up, separation, attachment and recirculation. The presence of recirculation zone in the lee side of the can change the behavior of the flow field significantly. To be specific, the smoke and firebrand transport, spotfire ignition and fire intensity can be influenced by the formation of recirculation zone in the lee side forested hill. Moreover, the flow separation and attachment in the lee side of the hill or in near forest clearing can change the fire behavior and rate of spread significantly. This study extends previously developed physics-based simulations for the flow through forest canopies over flat surfaces by Duncan et al. [1] with inclusion of hilly terrains. The motivation is to develop a predictive model for the firebrand transport and spotfire ignition model extending the previous work of Rahul et al. [2], where a physics based firebrand model is developed and validated against laboratory-scale experimental data. How the recirculation can affect the formation and growth of firebrand transport and spotfire ignition in the hilly terrain is the long-term goal of this study. The streamwise mean velocity is increases with increases of hill height and canopy densities over a forested hill. The flow recirculation zone is nicely captured on the lee side of the hill with various degrees of size and shape with respect to vegetation densities and hill sizes. The size and shape of the recirculation zones largely depend on the steepness of the hill although canopy density has some contribution as well. The results of streamwise mean velocities, mean pressure, Reynolds stresses and streamlines of velocity fields are captured in this study, which are qualitatively in good agreement with the existing literature. Overall the simulation results show the applicability of FDS in such complex simulation that can be used in future studies for the fire simulation of hilly terrain.

}, keywords = {canopy, downstream, fire simulation, hilly terrain, recirculation}, issn = {538}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7197, title = {Recovery Capitals (ReCap): applying a community capitals framework to disaster recovery - annual report 2019/20}, number = {599}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on wellbeing outcomes. It aims to support wellbeing after disasters by providing evidence-based guidance through a range of resources in different formats to accommodate different learning styles and ways of working.

ReCap has shown marked progress in the past year by engaging a large team of end-user and stakeholder organisations who are actively involved in progressive decision making. Detailed evidence mapping against the community capitals framework was undertaken using previous research conducted by the academic teams and collaborators. The first ReCap resource, a booklet containing key messages in an accessible format will be released as a pilot in July 2020 to meet the demand for support in current recovery efforts. \ The remaining ReCap resources will be produced and released later in 2020.

}, keywords = {community capitals, disaster recovery, framework, ReCap}, issn = {599}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and John Richardson} } @article {bnh-6796, title = {Reimagining program monitoring and evaluation for disaster resilience outcomes}, number = {549}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Resilience is an approach to living with, managing, and adapting to aspects of change, complexity and uncertainty, including that arising from emergencies and disasters. A resilient community has the capacities and opportunities to: identify risk; absorb disruptive events and return to a functioning state; and, adapt or transform in anticipation of, or in response to, disruptive events. Community resilience arises from the ways that these capacities are valued, prioritised and addressed by community, government, business, and individual actions and activities - a so-called system of resilience.\ 

Disaster resilience is a new organising principle\ for the work that Australian emergency agencies\ undertake with communities. Agency programs\ directly or indirectly seek to enhance the capacities\ of communities to survive, thrive and adapt within a landscape of bushfires, floods, storms\ and cyclones. Yet agencies are also required to\ demonstrate the contribution that their programs\ make to disaster resilience.

A suite of monitoring and evaluation (M\&E)\ frameworks and techniques are available to track\ the effectiveness of community engagement, and\ other programs. Many emergency management\ agencies in Australia, and other disaster-related\ organisations such as insurers, adopt these\ frameworks and techniques. Yet the challenge\ heard from practitioners is how to monitor\ and evaluate the contributions of programs\ to disaster resilience. Traditional measures\ of disaster resilience include preparedness,\ recovery and mitigation, but disaster resilience\ also encompasses aspects of communities such\ as connectedness, social capital, co-learning,\ participation, access, adaptation, behaviour\ change, diversity, governance and networks.\ Monitoring and evaluating therefore needs\ to address the impacts of programs on these\ aspects of disaster resilience. This endeavour is\ not unique to emergency management agencies: practitioners in climate change adaptation,\ international development, community\ development and environmental science are also\ developing ways to monitor and evaluate resilience\ outcomes.

There is no easy answer to the challenge of monitoring and evaluating programs for disaster resilience outcomes. This is partly because the adoption of resilience concepts into policy and programs is in its early stages, and partly because resilience thinking requires fundamental transformation in the design and implementation of community engagement programs, and the collection of data to track effectiveness. In essence, emergency agency practitioners and the communities they work with are themselves generating the new monitoring and evaluation frameworks, techniques, program designs and governance structures required to progress towards disaster resilience goals.

Emergency management agencies face the challenge of monitoring and evaluating the contribution of their programs for disaster resilience. However, given the diversity of legislative and strategic environments in Australia, the implementation of monitoring and evaluation frameworks will be unique to each agency.

This report is a self-reflective guide for taking program evaluation for disaster resilience outwards to examine progress and tracking towards goals of disaster resilience.\ 

Resilience is an approach to living with, managing,and adapting to aspects of change, complexityand uncertainty, including that arising fromemergencies and disasters. A resilient communityhas the capacities and opportunities to: identifyrisk; absorb disruptive events and return to afunctioning state; and, adapt or transform inanticipation of, or in response to, disruptive events.Community resilience arises from the waysthat these capacities are valued, prioritised andaddressed by community, government, business,and individual actions and activities {\textendash} a so-calledsystem of resilience.Disaster resilience is a new organising principlefor the work that Australian emergency agenciesundertake with communities. Agency programsdirectly or indirectly seek to enhance the capacitiesof communities to survive, thrive and adaptwithin a landscape of bushfires, floods, stormsand cyclones. Yet agencies are also required todemonstrate the contribution that their programsmake to disaster resilience.

}, keywords = {disaster resilience, Evaluation, program monitoring, resilience outcomes}, issn = {549}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Holly Foster} } @article {bnh-7802, title = {Report on the second end-user workshop {\textendash} Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows}, number = {642}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A virtual End-User Workshop was held on 25 and 27 August 2020 to present key outcomes of the Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows project. This was the second end-user workshop for the project, and focused on four key themes:

  1. Verification of impact forecasts
  2. Demonstrating evolution of impact forecasts
  3. Identifying needs to deliver and support future impact forecast products
  4. Future utilisation opportunities.

We invited participants from emergency services agencies in Queensland, NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, along with Emergency Management Australia (EMA). Also participating were a number of Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) officers who are embedded within the respective State Operations Centres in several states. A full list is provided at the end of this report.

}, keywords = {coastal zone, east coast low, Forecasting, impact based}, issn = {642}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Martin Wehner and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-6642, title = {A report on WRF software development (preliminary)}, number = {539}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire is one of the major natural hazards Australia encounters every year because of its dry weather and widespread bushlands. During the dry season, occurrence of simultaneous bushfires at different locations is quite common. The fire management authorities face challenges on deployment of resources (human and other logistics) properly to mitigate multiple bushfires. To prioritize, they depend on the modelling of real-time behaviours of the fire under consideration. Fire rate of spread (RoS) is one of the most important parameters that the authority wants to determine before proceeding to resource allocation. RoS during forest fire can be slowed by reduced sub-canopy wind. In operational models, it is accounted by a parameter, wind reduction factor (WRF). Current values used as WRF are not based on science. In this work, we are presenting a software (preliminary version) that can calculate WRF scientifically. We apply a dynamic WRF obtained from a mathematical model in an operation model, Spark. This will lead to better prediction of RoS, once fully implemented.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire management, model, Rate of spread, software development}, issn = {539}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6802, title = {RUIM {\textendash} A fire safety engineering model for rural urban interface firefighter taskforce deployment}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {113}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Firefighting at the rural urban interface remains one of the most dangerous activities undertaken by fire services internationally. Whilst there is a significant volume of literature and describing methods for fire engineering safety analysis in the urban environment, a significant gap remains in the context of the rural urban interface. To address this, this article presents the Rural Urban Interface Model (RUIM). An adaptation of the Fire Brigade Intervention Model (FBIM), the RUIM enables systematic analysis of firefighter safety during catastrophic and dynamic wildfire events. When applied correctly, the RUIM provides additional guidance to Incident Controllers and Incident Management Teams regarding the suitability and safety of defensive firefighting strategies. Ultimately, the inclusion of the RUIM as part of operational fire ground analysis may reduce the potential for fatalities or injuries arising from firefighting taskforces being caught in wildfire burnover.

}, keywords = {fire engineering, firefighting, RUI, Rural urban interface, safety, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2020.102986}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0379711219305843}, author = {Greg Penney and Daryoush Habibi and Marcus Cattani} } @article {bnh-6980, title = {Sampling and data analysis of field sites of 40 prescribed burns}, number = {573}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides a summary of the main features of the sites sampled as burn units in the Blue Mountains, NSW to characterise the biomass, carbon and nitrogen held in vegetation/fuel in unburnt and burnt sites. Sites sampled in Victoria and NSW for refinement and testing of current surface fuel models is also provided. Details of how empirical data collected from the field has been used in our modelling efforts and in student projects has been provided.

}, keywords = {data analysis, field sites, prescribed burns, sampling}, issn = {573}, author = {Bell, Tina and Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-6881, title = {Satellite Remote Sensing Contributions to Wildland Fire Science and Management}, journal = {Current Forestry Reports}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Purpose

This paper reviews the most recent literature related to the use of remote sensing (RS) data in wildland fire management.

Recent Findings

Studies dealing with pre-fire assessment, active fire detection, and fire effect monitoring are reviewed in this paper. The analysis follows the different fire management categories: fire prevention, detection, and post-fire assessment. Extracting the main trends from each of these temporal sections, recent RS literature shows growing support of the combined use of different sensors, particularly optical and radar data and lidar and optical passive images. Dedicated fire sensors have been developed in the last years, but still, most fire products are derived from sensors that were designed for other purposes. Therefore, the needs of fire managers are not always met, both in terms of spatial and temporal scales, favouring global over local scales because of the spatial resolution of existing sensors. Lidar use on fuel types and post-fire regeneration is more local, and mostly not operational, but future satellite lidar systems may help to obtain operational products. Regional and global scales are also combined in the last years, emphasizing the needs of using upscaling and merging methods to reduce uncertainties of global products. Validation is indicated as a critical phase of any new RS-based product. It should be based on the independent reference information acquired from statistically derived samples.

Summary

The main challenges of using RS for fire management rely on the need to improve the integration of sensors and methods to meet user requirements, uncertainty characterization of products, and greater efforts on statistical validation approaches.

}, keywords = {fire detection, management, remote sensing, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-020-00116-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40725-020-00116-5?wt_mc=socialmedia.twitter.1.SEM.ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst}, author = {Emilio Chuvieco and Inmaculada Aguado and Javier Salas and Mariano Garcia and Marta Yebra and Patricia Oliva} } @article {bnh-6790, title = {Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazard scenario planning for north Australia}, number = {555}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, which commenced in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, Conservation Agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken to date in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we are developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that in part and in some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) not only are they not funded to achieve this, also that the classic model of volunteering does not suit remote Indigenous community members, who are too busy dealing with unemployment and poverty. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build resilience and disaster assistance.

The process has involved a suite of case studies where interviews have been undertaken with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger programs to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg in Central Australia, Broome in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Secondly, we are continuing the program of service delivery of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia to develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, by providing information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In this report, we outline the further development of SMERF, in particular the proofing of the fire metrics collated in the previous year with a Far North Queensland Conservation estate case study in conjunction with partners at Queensland Parks \& Wildlife.

}, keywords = {fire management, Savanna, scenario planning}, issn = {555}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-7739, title = {Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia - final project report}, number = {636}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, commencing in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, conservation agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken over the project period in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we have been developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that\  some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) are\  not adequately resourced to achieve this,. The classic model of volunteering does not suit remote significantly disadvantaged Indigenous community members in remote communities. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build local emergency management (EM) capacity, preparedness, resilience and disaster response.

This research has developed\  a suite of case studies. In each case,\  interviews/workshops have been conducted with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg and Yuendumu in Central Australia, Broome, Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land, in Bulukhuduru, Ramingining and Ngukkurr in Arnhem Land, and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria. Main identified issues across the selected remote communities include little engagement of locals, if any, in managing emergency situations around the community, inappropriate placement of EM plans in police stations, lack of resoruces and services in remote communities, broader recognition of IRGs capacity to deliver EM services, and willingness of IRGs to participate in EM services.

Secondly, this research continues the service delivery program of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. To develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, we provide information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In particular, we include the development of a fire severity map product, not only to inform land management, but to improve Savanna Burning greenhouse gas emissions calculations.

Finally, this report addresses ongoing priorities identified by partner agencies and community stakeholders requiring further action-based research and implementation, especially addressing:

}, keywords = {northern Australia, Planning, remote community, risk management, scenario}, issn = {636}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-7311, title = {Seasonal fine fuel and coarse woody debris dynamics in north Australian savannas}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, abstract = {

Several studies have separately explored accumulation of the dominant fuels (grass, fine litter (\<6 mm diameter) and coarse woody debris (CWD, 6{\textendash}50 mm diameter)) in north Australian savannas. We report an analysis of two longitudinal datasets describing how these three fuel components covary in abundance throughout the year in eucalypt-dominated savanna over a rainfall gradient of 700{\textendash}1700 mm mean annual rainfall (MAR). Our observations concur generally with previous observations that litter accumulation results in a late dry season (LDS) peak in biomass, whereas cured grassy fuels typically are seasonally invariant, and CWD inputs are associated with stochastic severe wet season storms and dry season fires. The distinct LDS litter peak contributes significantly to the potential for LDS fires to be of higher intensity, burn more fuel per unit area and produce greater emissions relative to early dry season (EDS) fires. However, Australia{\textquoteright}s current (2018) formal savanna burning emissions avoidance methodology erroneously deems greater EDS fine fuel (grass and fine litter) biomass in four of nine designated vegetation fuel types. The study highlights the need to develop seasonally dynamic modelling approaches that better account for significant seasonal variation in fine fuel inputs and decomposition.

}, keywords = {emissions abatement, fire management, fire regime, fire seasonality, foliage projective cover, fuel accumulation, litter fuels, tropical savanna}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20073}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF20073}, author = {Yates, Cameron P. and Harry MacDermott and Jay Evans and Murphy, Brett P. and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-7826, title = {A Seasonal-Window Ensemble-Based Thresholding Technique Used to Detect Active Fires in Geostationary Remotely Sensed Data}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing}, year = {2020}, abstract = {

This article introduces a new algorithm to detect active fires in geostationary remotely sensed data. The algorithm calculated dynamic statistical multispectral thresholds based on, and sensitive to, biogeographical region, subseason, and time-of-day. The spectral characteristics of nonfire and noncloud mid-infrared values were found to vary with biogeographical region, subseason, and time-of-day. These differences were exploited to define a new seasonal Biogeographical Region and Individual Geostationary HHMMSS Threshold (BRIGHT) multivariate adaptive threshold geostationary satellite fire anomaly algorithm. The algorithm was demonstrated on 12 months of daytime data acquired from the geostationary satellite system, the Advanced Himawari Imager (on Himawari-8) over Australia (7.69 million km{\texttwosuperior}). The resulting hotspots were compared with those from the existing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) polar-orbiting fire-hotspot algorithm. The intercomparison showed that BRIGHT wildfire hotspots, detected using Himawari-8 and Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation of Australia (IBRA) data, were also detected by MODIS polar-orbiting fire hotspots 88\% of the time. While MODIS hotspots were detected by BRIGHT hotspots only 39\% of the time; the majority of the undetected MODIS hotspots had low radiative power. BRIGHT provides a new method for the remote sensing of active fires providing reliable observations at spatial and temporal scales useful for fire managers.

}, keywords = {Advanced Baseline Imager, Advanced Himawari Imager, algorithm development, clear-sky, cloud detection, fire anomaly, fire detection, geostationary, HIMAWARI-8}, doi = {10.1109/TGRS.2020.3018455}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9186808/keywords$\#$keywords}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-6910, title = {Seismic Fragility Assessment of Non-ductile Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Australia}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, pages = {1-35}, abstract = {

This study aims to assess the seismic performance of typical reinforced concrete buildings constructed in Australia before the enforcement for seismic design. The response of both the primary lateral load resisting system and the gravity load resisting system is considered. A brief description of the modelling approaches adopted to simulate the response of the buildings{\textquoteright} components is provided. Nonlinear time history analyses are conducted and {\textquotedblleft}cloud analysis{\textquotedblright} is used to develop the probabilistic seismic demand models. The results from the fragility assessment suggest that the low-rise buildings located on soft sites are the most vulnerable buildings.

}, keywords = {cloud analysis, Core walls, demand-to-capacity ratio, moment resisting frames, seismic performance}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2020.1750508}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2020.1750508}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Elisa Lumantarna and Pathmanathan Rajeev and Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6863, title = {Seismic Retrofitting of Reinforced Concrete Beam-Column Joints Using Diagonal Haunch}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, school = {Swinburne }, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis investigates the feasibility of using single diagonal haunch with post-installed anchors for improving the seismic performance of limited-ductile beam-column joints in reinforced concrete structures. This straightforward, less-invasive and architecturally-favourable solution can result in reducing the effect of seismic actions on buildings and consequently diminishing casualties.

}, keywords = {beam-column joints, buildings, earthquakes, reinforced concrete structures, seismic performance}, url = {https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/items/4730e574-60a5-421c-a619-f2def494e1a2/1/}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza} } @inbook {bnh-7841, title = {Sensing bushfire: Exploring shifting perspectives as hazard moves through the landscape}, booktitle = {Weather: Spaces, Mobilities and Affects}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Routledge}, organization = {Routledge}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Bushfires are an enduring part of the Australian landscape. While much research has explored community preparations and responses to disasters, there is little understanding of sensory engagements with hazards. In this chapter, we explore interviews with residents who had recently experienced a bushfire in Tathra, a small seaside town in south-eastern Australia. These interviews contain rich details of the sounds of the wind and fire and the smell of smoke inter alia that constitute embodied and sensory engagements with the bushfire. We focus on these bodily experiences to rethink the mobilities of people, boundaries and hazard {\textquoteleft}events{\textquoteright}. We suggest that a focus on sensory experiences of hazards provides a fuller understanding of more-than-human (im)mobilities and the continual becoming of place.

}, keywords = {affects, Bushfire, mobilities, sensing, space, weather}, issn = {9780367406394}, url = {https://www.routledge.com/Weather-Spaces-Mobilities-and-Affects/Barry-Borovnik-Edensor/p/book/9780367406394}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Joshua McLaren} } @inbook {bnh-6976, title = {Shallow Fire Literacy Hinders Robust Fire Policy: Black Saturday and Prescribed Burning Debates}, booktitle = {Disasters in Australia and New Zealand: Historical Approaches to Understanding Catastrophe}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, chapter = {7}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ brings together a collection of essays on the history of disasters in both countries. Leading experts provide a timely interrogation of long-held assumptions about the impacts of bushfires, floods, cyclones and earthquakes, exploring the blurred line between nature and culture, asking what are the anthropogenic causes of {\textquoteleft}natural{\textquoteright} disasters? How have disasters been remembered or forgotten? And how have societies over generations responded to or understood disaster? As climate change escalates disaster risk in Australia, New Zealand and around the world, these questions have assumed greater urgency. This unique collection poses a challenge to learn from past experiences and to implement behavioural and policy change. Rich in oral history and archival research,\ Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ offers practical and illuminating insights that will appeal to historians and disaster scholars across multiple disciplines.

}, keywords = {Australia, disaster impacts, disasters, history, new zealand}, isbn = {978-981-15-4381-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4382-1}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811543814$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Daniel May} } @inbook {bnh-6975, title = {Shaped by Fire: How Bushfires Forged Migrant Environmental Understandings and Memories of Place}, booktitle = {Disasters in Australia and New Zealand: Historical Approaches to Understanding Catastrophe}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, chapter = {2}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ brings together a collection of essays on the history of disasters in both countries. Leading experts provide a timely interrogation of long-held assumptions about the impacts of bushfires, floods, cyclones and earthquakes, exploring the blurred line between nature and culture, asking what are the anthropogenic causes of {\textquoteleft}natural{\textquoteright} disasters? How have disasters been remembered or forgotten? And how have societies over generations responded to or understood disaster? As climate change escalates disaster risk in Australia, New Zealand and around the world, these questions have assumed greater urgency. This unique collection poses a challenge to learn from past experiences and to implement behavioural and policy change. Rich in oral history and archival research,\ Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ offers practical and illuminating insights that will appeal to historians and disaster scholars across multiple disciplines.

}, keywords = {Australia, disaster impacts, disasters, history, new zealand}, isbn = {978-981-15-4381-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4382-1}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811543814$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Gretel Evans} } @article {bnh-6808, title = {Simplified calculation of roof accelerations in existing low-rise symmetric unreinforced masonry buildings with flexible diaphragms}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

A formulation is presented for simplified evaluation of the roof acceleration response for the purpose of assessing non-structural components in unreinforced masonry buildings with flexible diaphragms excluding torsional effects. The method is based on modal calculations that are further studied through nonlinear time-history analysis (NLTHA) of four case study buildings. The NLTHA results for a relatively small level of ground shaking was used to validate the overall ability of the simplified modal method to predict the diaphragm flexibility effects. The NLTHA results were also used to discuss the effects of the building inelastic response in the conservatism of the simplified modal technique. It was found that, in lieu of a comprehensive modal analysis, it is possible to calculate roof accelerations in symmetric low-rise buildings with flexible diaphragms using a simplified two-mode modal method. Based on this study, a predictive method is proposed for conservative estimation of peak roof accelerations in these buildings.

}, keywords = {acceleration response, flexible diagrams, height amplification factor, unreinforced masonry}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00823-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-020-00823-1$\#$citeas}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Yasuto Nakamura and Michael Griffith and Manicka Dhanasekar} } @article {bnh-6830, title = {Simulation of flows through canopies with varying atmospheric stability}, number = {562}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large eddy simulation is performed of a flow through forest canopy over a range of atmospheric stabilities. A heat source is introduced at the top of the tree canopy to model the heating of canopy top by solar energy, Unlike our previous report [1] where an ideal Monin-Obukhov method was used for the surface heat flux variation, this study has introduced a varying volumetric heat flux in a sub-canopy region. The flow field develops naturally with the applied thermal stratification and pressure-driven flow. The forest canopy modelled using the leaf area density (LAD) of pine trees. The simulation is allowed for a sufficient time, of the order of 20000 s, to adjust with the applied heat flux in the domain. The simulation is attempted for two broad classes: stable and unstable situations with varying negative and positive fluxes, respectively. The simulation results are validated against the numerical study of Nebenfuhr et al. [2] and the field measurement taken at Ryningsnas, Sweden [3]; which shows a good agreement. The effect of canopy top heat flux on different atmospheric stabilities are studied in detail and we present mean velocity and Reynolds stresses. These results suggest that atmospheric stability may affect the rate of spread and pollution dispersion, especially in the case of unstable stratifications. There is a need to understand atmospheric stabilities for accurate analysis of wildland fire spread and fire intensity. Most importantly, flame characteristics must be carefully diagnosed with due account for different atmospheric conditions prevailing in real wildland fire for reducing property damage and loss of lives.

}, keywords = {atmospheric boundary layer, forest canopy, thermal stratification, turbulence, turbulent kinetic energy}, issn = {562}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6567, title = {Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management}, number = {533}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we outline a decision-support framework for natural hazard management that combines the use of simulation and optimisation for exploring what risk reduction measures best achieve management priorities. This framework addressed several needs that practitioners have with regard to risk and adaptation assessment. First, it uses optimisation approaches to screen through and identify those management options that perform best across a number of decision criteria. This is important, as there are a very diverse range of management options which could be combined in an extremely large number of ways to make portfolios of management options and it is difficult to screen through all potential portfolios to shortlist a small number for further consideration. Second, it simulates the effectiveness of management options over long-term planning horizons. This is important, for management options may have long lead-in-times, and/or may have long lifetimes, are not easily/readily changed, and so need to be effective over a broad range of plausible future conditions, which likely include larger populations, increased economic development and climate change. Third, the framework emphasises holistic assessment, wherein the Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) simulates the effect of management options across a number of criteria, therefore allowing practitioners to explore the trade-offs between risk reduction with other community goals, including environmental, social and economic outcomes.


The value of this framework arises from the greater demands that are being placed on planners to effectively manage natural hazard risk, whether from politicians or from the public who have an increasingly reduced appetite for hazard losses. This creates a need for analytic frameworks for exploring how to best manage risk, and this framework addresses this gap.


Through application to a case study, this report shows how the framework is able to increase the effectiveness and efficiency by which IAM can be applied to natural hazard risk management. The role of the optimisation was seen not to be prescriptive, but to enable better exploration of risk management options. The framework was therefore able to provide rich information on the effectiveness of management portfolios by which better risk management plans could be formed.


The case study to which the framework was applied considered coastal flood risk within Greater Adelaide and explored the combinations of zonal exclusion areas along the coast which prevented further development. If unmitigated, coastal risk could increase by 10\% over the next three decades. However, results of the case study application showed that zonal exclusion policies could effectively reduce this growth of coastal risk, however this required excluding further development from 7000 Ha of land along the coast. Saying that, the growth in risk could be limited to 3\% (i.e. a reduction in growth by 60\%), through excluding coastal development from only 1500 Ha.

}, keywords = {natural hazard, optimisation, risk management, simulation}, issn = {533}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Graeme Dandy and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Charles Newland and Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell} } @article {bnh-7295, title = {Standardised search markings to include animals}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

When earthquakes and other natural hazards strike, it is not only humans that can become trapped in collapsed structures. This paper details current international practice of structural search markings used after disaster events. It also explores developing search markings to include markings for animals so that rescuers also take note of the presence and status of animals rescued from the location. Historically, companion animal owners have been known to consistently breach cordons to search for their animals. Currently, disaster search marking systems do not accommodate the rescue status of animals being removed or that are still trapped. An animal specific search marking system is recommended and decision makers within search marking bodies should consider adoption or development of such marking systems. The availability of an animal search marking could reduce confusion during human focused rescue efforts and contribute to the legitimisation of technical animal rescue as an independent discipline.

}, keywords = {animals; disaster; rescue}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-standardised-search-markings-to-include-animals/}, author = {Glassey, Steve and Eric Thompson} } @article {bnh-6773, title = {Staying on task: a tool to help state and regional-level emergency management teams}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {38-44}, abstract = {

The demands on teams coordinating emergency management at state and regional levels can be considerable. These teams may be supporting multiple incidents and are prioritising resources, liaising with other organisations and managing public interests. Also, during large-scale emergencies, teams will be working under conditions of stress and fatigue, which are known to impair cognitive processes such as memory and decision-making. This paper describes a checklist-based cognitive aid that can be used by teams to help retain their focus on tasks that need to be completed. This checklist is based on a hierarchical task analysis that was developed with emergency management agencies using observations, subject matter expert advice and prototype piloting. The checklist is a simple, straightforward set of prompts that help managers keep track of operational tasks and, thus, helps to reduce mental workload and improve cognition. The checklist can be used as a prompt to help emergency managers address the tasks they have oversight for, as a training and development resource, and as a diagnostic and monitoring tool to assess how well a control centre is operating. This can be assessed in real time and through the after-action review process. The checklist is a flexible tool that can help people better manage emergency response activities.

}, keywords = {decision-making, Emergency management, teams}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-staying-on-task-a-tool-to-help-state-and-regional-level-emergency-management-teams/}, author = {Peter Hayes and Christopher Bearman and Mark Thomason and Peter A. Bremner} } @article {bnh-7440, title = {Stretch-Thinking Loops: A New Technique for Scenario Planning}, journal = {Risk, Hazards \& Crisis in Public Policy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

In crisis management, scenario planning is a necessity in our volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. Strategic planners need to be able to imagine future environments even in the most uncertain conditions. The scale of potential scenarios and associated management suggests that those involved will require innovative planning techniques. To support innovation in strategic planning, we have combined the research on creativity, divergent thinking, and creative constraints to design a method called {\textquotedblleft}Stretch-Thinking Loops.{\textquotedblright} This technique uses iterative thinking approaches that identify broad scenarios, the likely consequences, and the potential constraints, and then uses this information to identify new opportunities and innovations to support scenario planning. We report on the development of this technique in the context of crisis management and its application in a collaborative project with an Australian State Government that explored a series of post-COVID-19 recovery scenarios for a 12-month time horizon. The proposed Stretch-Thinking Loops are not just limited to crisis management but offer all organizations a structured method to enhance their capability to engage in divergent-thinking for future scenario planning.

}, keywords = {crisis management, scenario planning, stretch-thinking}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12205}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rhc3.12205}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7480, title = {Structural design of floodways under extreme flood loading}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Purpose

Current methods for floodway design are predominately based on hydrological and hydraulic design principles. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a finite element methods approach for the inclusion of a simplified structural design method into floodway design procedures.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses a three-dimensional finite element method to investigate numerically the different parameters, geometric configurations and loading combinations which cause floodway vulnerability during extreme flood events. The worst-case loading scenario is then used as the basis for design from which several structural design charts are deduced. These charts enable design bending moments and shear forces to be extracted and the cross-sectional area of steel and concrete to be designed in accordance with the relevant design codes for strength, serviceability and durability.

Findings

It was discovered that the analysed floodway structure is most vulnerable when impacted by a 4-tonne boulder, a 900 mm cut-off wall depth and with no downstream rock protection. Design charts were created, forming a simplified structural design process to strengthen the current hydraulic design approach provided in current floodway design guidelines. This developed procedure is demonstrated through application with an example floodway structural design.

Originality/value

The deduced structural design process will ensure floodway structures have adequate structural resilience, aiding in reduced maintenance and periods of unserviceability in the wake of extreme flood events.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, Flood, floodways, impact load, Infrastructure, resilience}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0072}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0072/full/html?skipTracking=true}, author = {Isaac Greene and Weena Lokuge and Warna Karunasena} } @article {bnh-6698, title = {Suitability of Height Amplification Factors for Seismic Assessment of Existing Unreinforced Masonry Components}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {1-20}, abstract = {

The suitability of {\textquoteleft}design{\textquoteright} height amplification factors (HAF) for the purpose of seismic assessment of existing non-structural unreinforced masonry (URM) components with known strength was evaluated through a numerical study. Four building typologies were included that represented pre-1940 URM construction in Australia and New Zealand. Through pushover and incremental dynamic analyses, the effects of diaphragm flexibility and nonlinear building response on floor accelerations were studied. It was found that Australia/New Zealand code procedures include significant inelastic building behaviour that reduces HAF. An interpretation was made on the applicability of the assumptions in the context of assessing non-structural URM components.

}, keywords = {flexible diaphragms, height amplification factor, non-structural components, seismic input, unreinforced masonry}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2020.1716889}, url = {tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13632469.2020.1716889}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Yasuto Nakamura and Michael Griffith and Jason Ingham} } @article {bnh-6995, title = {A systematic literature review of effectiveness of community engagement for preparedness techniques}, number = {514}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This systematic literature review originally aimed to provide detail of the effect of disaster preparedness activities by individuals on their household{\textquoteright}s safety and coping during a natural hazard. The aim was presented as:

To present an index of what has been found to be the most effective household/personal preparedness activities across a range of hazards.

However, as the review proceeded, two things indicated to the research team that the focus of the project needed to be reviewed.

Firstly, no articles were found that effectively measured the effect of any single preparedness activity on the safety or coping of people in a natural hazard. This is explained further in the report.

Secondly, the review process uncovered significant numbers of studies that had measured the effect of community engagement techniques.\  At this point, the research team decided to add an engagement tools evaluation to the review and present the results of both aspects of the preparedness picture, with this additional overall aim:

To present a review of community engagement techniques and their levels of success.

This report details the process and outcomes of the systematic literature review component of the project.

It documents a systematic literature review that is part of a larger Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre project, Mapping Approaches to Community Engagement for Preparedness in Australia.

As a systematic literature review, it uses protocols already employed by disaster social scientists (such as Miller et al., 2017) and is informed by the Campbell Collaboration and similar protocols for these types of documents. The review builds on the work of a number of researchers (Dunlop, McNeill, Boylan, Morrison, \& Skinner, 2014a). Dunlop et al. 2014; Heagele 2016; Kohn et al., 2012; Uscher-Pines et al., 2013) to identify most effective and therefore most important preparation activities.\ \  The objectives of the project were to:

  1. Collate a list of personal preparedness activities that have been examined for their effect around the world, and these examinations published in English
  2. Collate a list of all of the community engagement tools and techniques that have been evaluated around the world and these examinations published in English
  3. Review the success or otherwise of these tools in quantifiable terms
  4. Emerge from the review with a tool kit for community communication and engagement containing a wide range of tools for a variety of circumstances

Four research questions guided this systematic literature review:

  1. What are the most effective household/personal preparedness activities across a range of hazards?
  2. What philosophical or engagement frameworks are being used or examined in the literature?
  3. What tools are being used to engage communities?
  4. What research methods were used to evaluate these tools or programs?

Using a systematically developed set of search terms that focused on preparedness activity , we searched a range of databases and secured 1,331 articles.\  In addition, we searched a range of grey literature sites and found a further 120 possibilities. After a search for duplicates, we had a database of 1,451 studies.\  Two screening processes were then employed {\textendash} searches of titles and abstracts, at which point, 1,328 studies were discarded because they were off topic, about recovery, conceptually off track, dealt with human-generated hazards, used descriptive data, or researched agency responses instead of community.

At this point we realised that studies researching the effect of discrete preparedness activities were not emerging and that community engagement techniques were.\  Once a decision was made to also consider community engagement techniques, the process was repeated for the same result. The search was effective for both because of the focus on preparedness activity, which is also an effect of good community engagement.\  Articles were then read in full to assess eligibility on the same criteria as the previous step, with 82 excluded at this point, leaving 41 articles for review.

The next step was the review the articles with each of the objectives in mind.

Objective 1 was not achieved because of the lack of research undertaken on this topic.

Objective 2 was collation of a list of community engagement tools used and evaluated around the world and this is presented in table form.\  The engagement techniques ranged from our own strategic community fire safety programs such as Community Fire Safe and FireGuard, to one off tools such as gaming simulations, exercises and co-design workshops.\  It also included information and education tools, some of which were shown to be effective.

Objective 3 related to a review of the success or otherwise of these engagement tools.\  Evaluation methods ranged from statistically rigorous pre and post surveys, as well as some attempts at longitudinal studies, to observation of workshop activity.\  Because of the systematic review process, research quality has been calculated and reported according to formulae developed for this process. The outcomes and quality are summarised in Tables 5 and 6, but detailed further in the report.

Objective 4 related to emergence of a toolkit of community engagement techniques that is also a deliverable for the wider project.\  The toolkit is detailed in raw form in Table 5, and articulated in more detail in Section 3.5.\  A toolkit format that sits more comfortably outside the systematic literature review and is more easily used by practitioners has been developed as a deliverable of the larger project and is available on the BNHRC website.

We have made recommendations arising from the limitations that we encountered in undertaking this study.\  The key of these limitations was that agencies establish a more systematic process of evaluation, and a more scheduled subsequent sharing of program and technique evaluation results.\  As well, agencies have taken the lead on preparedness checklists as an easy mechanism for the community to undertake preparedness.\  Academic research has followed, but has overlooked testing the assumptions on which these checklists rest.\ 

Household preparation techniques are backed by fire science, and building and property codes subsequently based on this science, but personal safety and coping preparation activities have not been tested for efficacy. We recommend from this limitation that the effect of discrete preparedness activities be tested, and we have suggested research techniques that could be used. Thirdly, the studies we reviewed lacked consistency and rigour, making comparisons difficult and context hard to determine.\ \  We believe that industry and academia could collaborate to develop minimum requirements for such research that enables full closure of the community preparedness knowledge loop.

}, keywords = {community engagement, literature review, Preparedness}, issn = {514}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor and Ryan McAndrew} } @article {bnh-7439, title = {Terrestrial Image-Based Point Clouds for Mapping Near-Ground Vegetation Structure: Potential and Limitations}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, chapter = {59}, abstract = {

Site-specific information concerning fuel hazard characteristics is needed to support wildfire management interventions and fuel hazard reduction programs. Currently, routine visual assessments provide subjective information, with the resulting estimate of fuel hazard varying due to observer experience and the rigor applied in making assessments. Terrestrial remote sensing techniques have been demonstrated to be capable of capturing quantitative information on the spatial distribution of biomass to inform fuel hazard assessments. This paper explores the use of image-based point clouds generated from imagery captured using a low-cost compact camera for describing the fuel hazard within the surface and near-surface layers. Terrestrial imagery was obtained at three distances for five target plots. Subsets of these images were then processed to determine the effect of varying overlap and distribution of image captures. The majority of the point clouds produced using this image-based technique provide an accurate representation of the 3D structure of the surface and near-surface fuels. Results indicate that high image overlap and pixel size are critical; multi-angle image capture is shown to be crucial in providing a representation of the vertical stratification of fuel. Terrestrial image-based point clouds represent a viable technique for low cost and rapid assessment of fuel structure.

}, keywords = {Structure from Motion; vegetation structure; fuel hazard; Terrestrial Laser Scanning}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3040059}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/4/59/htm}, author = {Luke Wallace and Bryan Hally and Samuel Hillman and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @inbook {bnh-6644, title = {The Theory/Practice of Disaster Justice: Learning from Indigenous Peoples{\textquoteright} Fire Management}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {299-317}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {16}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Globally, Indigenous peoples have fire management practices which are not necessarily supported by the centralised land management and natural hazard institutions of nation states. This is changing in Australia with the proliferation of engagements between government authorities and Aboriginal fire management leaders. These engagements raise a series of justice issues that critique the separation of environmental and socio-political\ matters, and the discriminatory positioning of Indigenous peoples and their interests as local. In this chapter, we share the experiences of Aboriginal people that have been shared with us in three places: Central Arnhem Land, the Western Desert and the Australian Capital Territory. The theory/practice of Disaster Justice\ offers new opportunities to ensure these socio-natural\ engagements are {\textquoteleft}just{\textquoteright}, which requires careful attention to whose values matter, whose knowledge is important and whose political-legal rights and entities are recognised and resourced.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Collective continuance, Decolonial, Environmental justice, First Nations, Wildfire}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_16}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_16}, author = {Jessica Weir and Sutton, S and Gareth Catt} } @article {bnh-6988, title = {A typology of disaster resilience in Australia - annual report 2018-19}, number = {576}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The themes that influence disaster resilience in different locations in Australia are summarised using a typology.\  A typology identifies SA2s (Statistical Area 2 divisions of the ABS) that have similar characteristic patterns of theme sub-index values, and places these SA2s together into groups.\  Thus, the SA2s within a group are similar to each other, but each group has a different disaster resilience profile.\  The profile associated with each group can then be used to understand disaster resilience in local communities and the strengths and opportunities for enhancing or improving disaster resilience.

Cluster analysis revealed five disaster resilience profiles in Australia.\  The SA2s within a group all have a similar profile {\textendash} that is, they have similar disaster resilience strengths and constraints.\  Most SA2s fall into Group 4, and these are largely in metropolitan Australia.\  In comparison to other groups, areas within Group 4 are best placed overall to cope with and adapt to complex change associated with natural hazards.\  Areas in Group 3 are largely in regional and remote areas.\  Areas with this disaster resilience profile have an enhanced pro-social setting, but face constraints from economic capital, planning and the built environment, emergency services, information access and governance and leadership.\  Areas with the Groups 1 and the Group 5 disaster resilience profile are constrained by community capital and social character.\  Areas with the Group 2 disaster resilience profile are largely inner regional areas with reduced access to information and telecommunications services.\  Variation in the strengths and constraints on disaster resilience suggests that place-based strategies need to be applied to support the different dimensions of disaster resilience.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, annual report, disaster resilience}, issn = {576}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Graham Marshall and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6760, title = {Understanding bushfire risk, warnings and responses: lessons from the 2018 Reedy Swamp fire}, number = {518.2020}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {East Melbourne}, abstract = {

On Sunday 18 March 2018 a bushfire impacted on the communities of Reedy Swamp and Tathra in the Bega Valley Shire on the NSW south coast. The fire, known as the Reedy Swamp Fire, destroyed 65 and damaged 48 homes. 35 caravans and cabins were also destroyed. The fire displaced approximately 700 residents on the day, as well as an unknown number of tourists and visitors to Tathra. Fortunately no human lives were lost.

The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) commissioned the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to undertake research into community preparedness and responses to the Reedy Swamp Fire. The University of Wollongong and Macquarie University were engaged by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to conduct this research.\ \ 

Themes covered in\ this research are community understanding\ of fire risk, planning, preparation, and\ responses during and after the fire.

Key findings centre around the need to\ educate people further about the role that\ embers play in spreading bushfire into built-up\ areas, the dangers of late evacuation,\ providing greater clarity in official warning\ messages and how warnings may not be\ delivered in the event of power or technology\ failure. The study found that many people\ consider bushfire preparation as something\ that is undertaken when directly threatened\ by fire, not well in advance of an active\ threat. Many people within Tathra had not\ hought that a bushfire could impact the\ town, or had not considered the potential\ for fire to penetrate beyond the bush at the\ western edge of town. The research found\ that many of those who left at the last\ moment said they would leave earlier in a\ future bushfire and would be more prepared\ to gather animals and valuable items to take\ with them when they evacuated.

Download the Hazard Note summary of the research findings.

}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-4-0}, issn = {518}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Wilkinson, Carrie and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-6929, title = {Understanding post-fire fuel dynamics using burnt permanent forest plots}, number = {569}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel load, structure and hazard within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires. This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuels consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads. We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fire severity and fuel accumulation in wet eucalypt forests related to other BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both fuel accumulation and the drivers of fire severity in wet forests.

The flammability of tall wet eucalypt forests is poorly understood. A globally unique forest type, these forests consist of a highly-flammable Eucalyptus overstorey and a moist, non-flammable understorey consisting of rainforest and broadleadf trees and shrubs.[i], As a result, these forests are rarely available to burn, and almost no data exists on flammability and fire behaviour. While current fire behaviour models assume that fuel load and hence flammability increase asymptotically as a function of time since previous fire, there is much debate over whether this is the true trajectory of flammability in these forests. Understanding how fire severity is influenced by fuels and time since fire is a critical question in these forests.

As the rate of spread and intensity of a fire is a function of fuels, fire weather and topography, and as only the latter can be physically manipulated, the effect of fire on fuel loads is extremely important to understand.\  Low-severity fires are known to reduce surface fine fuels loads across a landscape in certain forest types, so intentionally lighting low-severity fires (i.e. planned burns), will increase the encounter rate of wildfires with low fuel load areas.7 However the effect of low-severity fires in wetter forests is mostly unstudied. While reducing fuel ages has been shown to reduce both the extent and incidence of unplanned fires, the effect of low severity fires on actual fuel loads has not been explicitly quantified.\  While the period of effectiveness of a planned burn has been generally reported to be 5-6 years,8,\ these studies have looked at the empirical probability or size of unplanned fires as a function of fuel age, no studies that we could find in Australia measured fuel loads directly after a low-severity fire.

}, keywords = {eucalypt forest, fuel dynamics, permanent forest plots, post-fire}, issn = {569}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-6774, title = {Unpacking the meaning of resilience: the Tarnagulla community definition comparing to the literature}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {29-37}, abstract = {

In 2018, the Tarnagulla Alternative Energy Group in regional Victoria took steps to plan futures for their town and its local community that strengthened resilience to the many challenges in the area including those from climate change. Believing that {\textquoteright}anticipation strategies work against known problems, while resilient strategies are better against unknown problems{\textquoteright} (IFRC 2012, p.5) the group turned to the RMIT Climate Change Transformations group to unpack the meaning of resilience as it related to the town and community. The purpose was to produce a locally-focused Resilience Action Plan. Despite an international consensus and media propagation of resilience as a silver bullet to address future uncertainties, the concept remains contentious and challenging to implement. This paper considers how the various framings of resilience - the {\textquoteright}conceptual{\textquoteright} (in literature) and the {\textquoteright}operational{\textquoteright} (in policy) - relate to the Tarnagulla community{\textquoteright}s lived experience and the implications. The comparison allows to unpack a mixture of the complexities in understanding the nature of values, preferences, expectations, capacities, contested knowledge, as well as, the uncertainties. Study findings show that communities are best placed to frame their resilience, collectively and from a {\textquoteright}systems{\textquoteright} perspective, and that implementing actions, which may require radical change, hinge on a political voice and sustained support from policy makers.

}, keywords = {Climate change, community, operational, resilience, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-unpacking-the-meaning-of-resilience-the-tarnagulla-community-definition-comparing-to-the-literature/}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @article {bnh-7770, title = {Unrealised economic opportunities in remote Indigenous communities: Case studies from northern Australia}, journal = {Social Sciences \& Humanities Open}, volume = {2}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Building on unique Indigenous advantages for people living in remote areas, this study offers insights for innovative land-based economic opportunities across northern Australia. These advantages{\textemdash}outside the mainstream economics{\textemdash}include peoples{\textquoteright} abilities to manage land and knowledge of ecosystems, culture, traditions/ceremonies which directly contribute towards peoples{\textquoteright} health, social relations, provisioning of a safe and secure environment, and learning constituents of well-being. To demonstrate, two representative remote communities, Maningrida and Borroloola in the Northern Territory, are used for revealing uncaptured, but valid, opportunities which, if realized, could help enhance Indigenous well-being{\textemdash}a much-needed agenda for the Australian Government. Moreover, innovative land-based opportunities will potentially save ~$49million/yr of government{\textquoteright}s welfare costs. This study offers a detailed analysis of the existing socio-economic situation of the selected communities, outlines potential land-based economic opportunities, and advocates for a shift in policy planning from viewing remote communities as a problem to realising advantages of their unique prospects to develop the north. Applying an integrated approach to Indigenous development for supporting new economies can lead to diversification of north{\textquoteright}s land sector which to date has been predominantly used for beef production causing threats to fragile ecosystems and hence their services to people living in the area.

}, keywords = {Economic opportunities, Ecosystem services opportunities, Indigenous peoples, Policy planning, remote communities}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2020.100093}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291120300826}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Adele Duvert and Ricky Archer and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-7510, title = {Urban planning and natural hazard risk reduction: critical frameworks for best practice}, number = {631}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Urban planning offers a range of potential benefits to reduce or even avoid many of the risks associated with natural hazards.\  However, it is is not always fully utilised as a core mechanism to manage natural hazard risks, particularly those relating to human settlements.

This document sets out a critical framework to guide improved integration of land use planning and wider natural hazard risk reduction actions. It is intended to support emergency managers and urban and regional planning practitioners in the complex task of integrating land use planning and disaster risk reduction in different Australian jurisdictions. The critical framework has been designed to speak to current terminology, processes and arrangements already used by these audiences.

The diagnostioc tools are scalable and adapatable to various circumstances and needs. Hence, the diagnoses can be applied to particiular hazards, certain geographical places, parts of or the entire planning system, or specific challenges associated with disaster risk reductions.

Three interconnected elements comprise the diagnstic tools, based on developing and applying knowledge regarding:

  1. Natural Hazards, the sources of harm or situations with a potential to cause loss with their core transmission systems in the natural world.0F[1]
  2. Cross-Cutting Themes, core disaster risk reduction principles that apply to all urban planning, settlement and natural hazard circumstances.
  3. Diagnostic Focus Areas, risk reduction principles that relate to key categories of urban planning, communities and the range of other systems they interact with.

The diagnostic tool includes a sequenced approach to examine complex situations and to develop logical and evidence-based directions for improved urban planning. This also allows improved connections with wider Disaster Risk Reduction practices.\ 

1 {\textendash} Establish Context, scope and key focus

2 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of relevant hazards

3 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of cross-cutting themes and challenges

4 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of specific diagnostic focus areas

5 {\textendash} Review and adjust or modify as appropriate

[1] It is assumed here that expertise and data will mainly come from a variety of credible sources as a basis for effective action.\  Accordingly, detailed descriptions of each hazard are not included here. Rather, reference to more exhaustive materials available elsewhere is provided.

}, keywords = {frameworks, natural hazard, practice, risk reduction, urban planning}, issn = {631}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Hedwig van Delden and Janet Stanley and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7164, title = {Urban planning capabilities for bushfire: treatment categories and scenario testing}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {32-40}, abstract = {

The challenges facing settlements relating to bushfire require integrated approaches that manage risks across a wide range of factors. This paper sets out a framework demonstrating how urban planning, when coupled with appropriate decision support and future scenario testing, can reduce risks relating to bushfire while considering future growth. Examples of how planning can modify aspects of risk in association with scenario testing are included. Five main categories of risk reduction treatments are shown. The paper contributes to risk reduction by providing practical mechanisms for risk avoidance and treatment via urban and land-use planning systems combined with forward scenario testing to guide existing settlements and future growth.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, capabilities, scenario testing, treatment, urban planning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2020-urban-planning-capabilities-for-bushfire-treatment-categories-and-scenario-testing/}, author = {Alan March and Graeme Riddell and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Dovers, Steve and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7465, title = {Using pre- and post-fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires: field survey methods}, number = {620}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In January 2019, over 64,000 ha of bushland burned in the Riveaux Road fire in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s southern forests. Most of this burning occurred in tall wet eucalypt forest. These forests are considered to be highly flammable in dry conditions, but fires are infrequent due to the generally cool, wet climate in which they grow. As a result, limited data exists on the behaviour and effects of wildfire in these forests. Prior to these fires, extensive areas of these southern forests have been studied in-depth. In 2014, a large area of the forests that burned were mapped with aerial LiDAR, a remote-sensing technology that can characterise three-dimensional forest structure. Further, in 2016, detailed field-based measurements of fuel load, structure, and hazard were taken at 12 permanent plot which subsequently burned in 2019. Hence, the 2019 fires in Tasmania represent a globally-rare opportunity to characterise the severity of a large wildfire using pre-fire and post-fire data. In October 2019, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) in Tasmania, along with five other BNHCRC end-users and the University of Tasmania, launched a project to do just this, using remote-sensing and field-based data to create a detailed case study of the 2019 Riveaux Rd. Fire, and to untangle the drivers of fire severity in tall wet eucalypt forests.

Here, we present the Methodology this study. We took measurements at the 12 permanent plots that burned, dividing our measurements based on 2 levels of detail, based on the level of detail of the pre-fire measurements. In four plots we took {\textquoteleft}Level 1{\textquoteright} measurements, undertaking an overstorey census over 1 ha, assessing overstorey mortality. In 12 plots, we took {\textquoteleft}Level 2{\textquoteright} measurements, which involved characterising understorey phiognomy, structure fuel load, and fire hazard along 3-4 transects at each plot. For Level 1\&2 measurements we also took numerous fire severity measurements, such as char height and burnt tip diameter.\  We also developed a {\textquoteleft}Level 3{\textquoteright} methodology of mostly qualitative fire severity indices that could be quickly conducted at many sample points across the landscape. quantifying fuel load, structure, mortality, hazard, and fire severity indices such as char height and burnt tip diameter. We also outline the next steps to be taken for this project.

}, keywords = {2019 Tasmania fires, field survey method, fire severity, Lidar}, issn = {620}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Scott Foyster and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-6566, title = {Using the human centred design method to develop tools for non-technical skills in emergency management}, number = {532}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Human Centred Design (HCD) is a widely used design process that seeks to ensure that products are designed to efficiently and effectively support the needs of the human user.\  At the heart of the HCD process is an iterative cycle of development and testing in conjunction with end-users.\  This places the humans who play such a central role in emergency management at the centre of the design activity.\  The BNHCRC project: team monitoring, decision making and organisational learning has used the human centred design approach to develop a number of tools that support human decision making and team management during emergencies.\  This report introduces the human centred design process and shows how it was used to develop the decision making and team management tools.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, human centred design, team management}, issn = {532}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7188, title = {Utilisation funding: South Australia stretch thinking project}, number = {597}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning{\textquotedblright} is focused on improving decision-making for response agencies/operations.

This utilisation project involved the research team from the University of Tasmania conducting two training workshops for a multi-jurisdictional group in South Australia and adapting aide-memoirs for decision making to support long-term recovery.

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards utilisation funding enhanced the South Australian Department of the Premier and Cabinet and University of Tasmania program, known as {\textquoteleft}Stretching for Recovery{\textquoteright}, which involved broadening research for decision-making for long-term recovery and offering the opportunity to run an additional workshop for South Australia.

}, keywords = {south australia, stretch thinking, utilisation fundings}, issn = {597}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7214, title = {The value of research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, number = {601}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC {\textendash} the CRC) retained us to develop a transparent, reproducible estimate of the total value to Australia of its research: to answer the question, what is the return to Australia of its investment in the BNHCRC?

Cooperative Research Centres, like the BNHCRC, represent the main formal vehicle for explicitly enhancing research and industry collaboration in Australia.\  With government sponsorship, researchers and industry work closely to produce socially and commercially desirable outcomes.\ 

Funders of all research, including that of bushfire and emergency management, increasingly want to ensure that their investments generate value for the emergency management sector and contribute to risk reduction.\  Research value can take a number of forms, from a readily assessed improvement in performance due to a new widget or process, to increases in capacity and risk management across the emergency sector, and direct and indirect benefits to the whole of society and economy.\ \ 

The ARC (Australian Research Council) has a broad definition of research impact:

{\textquotedblleft}Research impact is the contribution that research makes to the economy, society, environment or culture, beyond the contribution to academic research.{\textquotedblright}\ 

The definition suggested by the European Commission is broader still and includes indirect impacts and effects, on for example, innovation culture, capacity building, and increasing the stock of useful knowledge.\  We use the ARC{\textquoteright}s definition broadened slightly to encompass the specifics set out in the European definition as they help to capture the CRC{\textquoteright}s contribution. This is achieved through four pathways to value, set out in the following section.

}, keywords = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, research, Value}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-7-1}, issn = {601}, author = {John Handmer and Adriana Keating and Ken Strahan} } @article {bnh-7344, title = {Variation in Eucalyptus delegatensis post-fire recovery strategies: The Tasmanian subspecies is a resprouter whereas the mainland Australian subspecies is an obligate seeder}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {473}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Eucalyptus delegatensis\ is native to the Australian Alps (subsp.\ delegatensis) and montane Tasmania (subsp.\ tasmaniensis).\ Post-fire regeneration mechanisms of the obligate-seeder subspecies on the Australian mainland are well-known, but less is known about the resprouter Tasmanian subspecies. In January 2016, large tracts of\ Eucalyptus delegatensis\ forests in central Tasmania, logged at different intensities, were burnt by low- and high-severity fire. We used statistical modelling to understand how tree survival, vegetative regeneration and seedling recruitment differed according to understorey type, fire severity, logging intensity and tree size (DBH). Fire severity, defined as unburnt, low-severity (fire scarring on the stem and/or lower canopy burnt) and high-severity (full canopy burnt), affected tree survival: 84\% of trees were alive in unburnt transects, compared with 43\% in low-severity transects and 36\% in high-severity transects. Epicormic resprouting was the dominant mode of vegetative recovery, with\ \<\ 1\% of total trees recovering solely by basal resprouting. Fire severity significantly affected epicormic resprouting, with 70\% of live stems resprouting post-fire in low-severity transects and 99\% in high-severity transects, compared with 4\% in unburnt transects. Tree survival was strongly influenced by tree size: in high-severity transects, 24\% of trees with DBH\ \<\ 20\ cm were alive, compared with 88\% of trees with DBH\ >=\ 20\ cm. These differences in survival were primarily because large trees were more likely to resprout epicormically, with epicormic shoots present on 24\% of live trees with DBH\ \<\ 20\ cm, compared with 79\% of live trees with DBH\ >=\ 80\ cm. The strong effect of tree size renders clear-felled forests especially vulnerable to fire during the several decades when all the regenerating trees are small (DBH\ \<\ 20\ cm). Seedling recruitment was uncommon, independent of understorey type and logging intensity, but with higher occurrence on high-severity (54\%) than low-severity (19\%) or unburnt (15\%) transects. When present, seedling densities were typically low: median\ =\ 400 and maximum\ =\ 4{\textperiodcentered}104\ seedlings ha-1. This study highlights that mature forests of\ Eucalyptus delegatensis\ in Tasmania are more resilient (able to return to pre-disturbance conditions) to single high-severity fires than their mainland counterparts, because they can recover more quickly through epicormic resprouting. However, clear-felling reduces this resilience for several decades because it decreases median tree size and, hence, leads to higher post-fire mortality. It is difficult to predict how the Tasmanian subspecies will respond to an increased frequency of high-severity fires associated with a projected warmer and drier climate.

}, keywords = {Clear-felling, Epicormic resprouting, Eucalyptus delegatensis, fire severity, Seedlings, Tasmania, Tree size, Tree survival, Understorey type}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118292}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112720310616}, author = {Dario Rodriguez-Cubillo and Lynda Prior and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-7473, title = {Vehicle-related flood fatalities in Australia, 2001{\textendash}2017}, journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This study analyses the circumstances of vehicle-related flood fatalities between 2001 and 2017, in Australia. The research identified 96 deaths from 74 incidents during this period. The aim of this analysis is to understand the demographic, spatial and temporal patterns, and the situational conditions in which those (n\ = 96) deaths have occurred. This is important for informing efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies to reduce vehicle related deaths and injuries in floodwater. Data were accessed from the Australian National Coronial Information System (NCIS), which includes witness and police statements, forensic documents, and detailed coronial findings. Analysis was conducted in two phases. In phase one, data were coded and categorised according to a range of factors previously identified as significant in vehicle-related flood fatalities internationally. In phase two, a detailed analysis was conducted on 11 selected incidents for which there were complete sets of records. This detailed analysis provides insight into the multifaceted nature of fatal vehicle-related flood fatality incidents. The overall results reveal that, for drivers, middle-aged and elderly males are over-represented in the fatality statistics. As passengers, young women and children are vulnerable. The study also identified deep floodwater with high flow contributes more to vehicle immersion, and the presence of alcohol and drugs, leading to impaired responses, reduces the chance of survival for the vehicle occupants.

}, keywords = {driver, drowning fatalities, Flood, natural hazard, passenger vehicles}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12616}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jfr3.12616}, author = {Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-8255, title = {Visual Mis/disinformation in Journalism and Public Communications: Current Verification Practices, Challenges, and Future Opportunities}, journal = {Journalism Practice}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Social media platforms and news organisations alike are struggling with identifying and combating visual mis/disinformation presented to their audiences. Such processes are complicated due to the enormous number of media items being produced, how quickly media items spread, and the often-subtle or sometimes invisible-to-the-naked-eye nature of deceptive edits. Despite knowing little about the provenance and veracity of the visual content they encounter, journalists have to quickly determine whether to re-publish or amplify this content, with few tools and little time available to assist them in such an evaluation. With the goal of equipping journalists with the mechanisms, skills, and knowledge to be effective gatekeepers and stewards of the public trust, this study reviews current journalistic image verification practices, examines a number of existing and emerging image verification technologies that could be deployed or adapted to aid in this endeavour, and identifies the strengths and limitations of the most promising extant technical approaches. While oriented towards practical and achievable steps in combating visual mis/disinformation, the study also contributes to discussions on fact-checking, source-checking, verification, debunking and journalism training and education.

}, keywords = {communications, images, misinformation, Warnings}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17512786.2020.1832139}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17512786.2020.1832139}, author = {T.J. Thomson and Daniel Angus and Paula Dootson and Edward Hurcombe and Adam Smith} } @article {bnh-6868, title = {Vulnerability assessment of bridges subjected to extreme cyclonic events}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Over the past few years, Queensland in Australia has suffered from a number of severe tropical cyclones, the most recent one being Marcia, which took place in 2015. Damage bill of Cyclone Marcia exceeded $50 million which included the cost of repairing a number of damaged road structures. Failure of road structures such as bridges isolates communities from accessing essential services and commodities. This necessitated a methodical approach to evaluate the failure of bridges to improve their resilience and provide base knowledge for developing emergency maintenance response. Although there are several methods available to evaluate the vulnerability of bridges, fault tree analysis (FTA) was selected in this study by considering its positive attributes over the other methods. FTA was used to estimate the probabilities of failure of main components (superstructure and substructure) and elements of timber and concrete bridges. Secondary data (level 1 and level 2 bridge inspection reports from Transport Main Roads in Rockhampton) before and after the Cyclone Marcia were used in conjunction with expert advice to construct fault trees for both timber and concrete bridges. Potential failure mechanisms were observed, and the degree of susceptibility of main components of timber and concrete bridges to cyclonic events was evaluated. This research was based on selected bridges under specific cyclone in one region, which is a limitation of the study. Few other case study bridges subjected to cyclonic events can be used to strengthen the understanding of the complete dynamics of the bridge failure under these extreme events.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, cyclone, fault tree analysis, preventative maintenance, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03931-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-020-03931-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Thilini Pathiranage and Weena Lokuge} } @article {bnh-7476, title = {Wellington{\textquoteright}s Earthquake Resilience: Lessons from the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake}, journal = {Earthquake Spectra}, volume = {36}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, pages = {1448-1484}, abstract = {

Wellington city, the capital of New Zealand, experienced substantial damage and impacts from the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, despite its relatively large distance of 60 km from the source of the earthquake. This article draws on impact observations from this event to discuss critical issues for Wellington{\textquoteright}s earthquake resilience. Ground motion characteristics exhibiting substantial amplifications in native and reclaimed sites, including basin effects, liquefaction of reclaimed land at the port of Wellington, characteristic structural and non-structural damage to mid- and high-rise buildings, and socio-economic impacts on community are explored in detail. The main thrust of the article is to discuss implications of these observations, identify needs, and stimulate actions across a wide range of earthquake science, earthquake engineering, and socio-economic disciplines to achieve adequate resilience levels for Wellington, and other cities facing similar seismic risks.

}, keywords = {basin effects, building damage, earthquake, earthquake resilience, ground motion, lifelines, liquefaction, reclaimed land, socio-economic impacts, Wellington}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020919426}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/8755293020919426}, author = {Misko Cubrinovski and Brendon Bradley and Kenneth Elwood and David Johnston and Caroline Orchiston and Timothy Sullivan and Liam Wotherspoon} } @article {bnh-6723, title = {Why don{\textquoteright}t bushfire warnings work as intended? Responses to official warnings during bushfires in New South Wales, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {45}, year = {2020}, abstract = {

Australian fire services provide two broad types of warning to people in bushfire (or wildfire) risk areas. Fire Danger Ratings communicate the possible consequences of a bushfire due to its rate of spread, intensity and difficulty of suppression. Warnings are also issued to alert people to impending bushfires and advise them how to respond. This paper examines how people threatened and affected by bushfires in New South Wales, Australia, in 2017 understood, interpreted and acted upon warning messages they received. The research involved 113 semi-structured interviews and an online survey of 549 households. Results indicate that while most people found warnings easy to understand and useful, many did not respond in ways intended by fire services. Many waited until they were threatened before they evacuated, while others stayed to defend houses and property, assist or rescue other people, and protect pets and animals. Notably, the research highlights the tendency for people to seek confirmation of the bushfire threat before taking protective action, most commonly to avoid unnecessary evacuation and its associated costs. Furthermore, the research identifies three key messages in bushfire warnings that are not personally meaningful for many people because they do not align with how they are likely to respond to a bushfire. These include: (1) people should leave bushfire risk areas on days of Catastrophic fire danger, before there is a fire; (2) houses are not defendable under Catastrophic conditions; and (3) people should {\textquoteleft}leave early{\textquoteright}. The paper offers suggestions on how fire authorities can provide better information to help people to make more effective decisions by acknowledging and working within the context in which warnings are understood, interpreted and acted upon.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, defence, Evacuation, information, preparation, Warnings, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101476}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919304625?dgcid=author}, author = {J Whittaker and Mel Taylor and Christopher Bearman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8090, title = {Wildfire suppression {\textendash} an international analysis of operations, strategy and firefighter safety}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {430}, school = {Edith Cowan University}, abstract = {

Wildfire suppression remains an inherently dangerous yet increasingly frequent task for fire services throughout Australia and the world. Each year firefighters from career and volunteer agencies respond to wildfires that impact the urban interface. When such an event occurs during a period of intense fire behaviour the conditions are often incompatible with life for persons either caught in the open or those seeking refuge in a vehicle. In order to improve firefighter safety and operational effectiveness at the rural urban interface (RUI) during landscape scale wildfires, this dissertation serves to examine critical components of wildfire response, most notably wildfire suppression strategies and tactics applied during a landscape scale wildfire event and the procedures and protective systems utilised in the event of firefighter entrapment and burnover.

The theme of the research is firefighter safety and suppression effectiveness during mega-wildfire response at the rural urban interface (RUI), also known as the wildland urban interface (WUI). Mega-wildfires are those landscape wildfires that overwhelm firefighting resources, typically generate their own localized weather systems, and require campaign style efforts lasting extended durations. Wildfire events including Margaret River (2011), and Yarloop (2016) in Western Australia, the devastating Californian and Greece wildfires (2018) and the unprecedented wildfires throughout eastern Australia in late 2019 / early 2020 meet this category. The RUI is the land where towns and cities exist alongside forest and other vegetation that supports the development of an established headfire with a quasi-steady rate of spread (RoS) across the landscape. In such instances, firefighters are called on to protect vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure from the ember storms, radiant heat and flames that accompany the head fire. In doing so, firefighters face great personal peril. If the incorrect suppression tactics or strategies are applied, or if wildfire behaviour suddenly changes, firefighter entrapment and burnover resulting in significant injury or fatality remains an all too common consequence.

The studies not only quantify the severity of the conditions firefighters encounter when attempting to protect life, property and the environment at the RUI, but also find traditional wildfire suppression strategies and tactics at the RUI need to be reexamined. Whilst the field of wildfire engineering is in its infancy, the studies suggest its development and adoption into wildfire suppression operations has the potential to improve both operational effectiveness and firefighter safety.

}, keywords = {analysis, firefighter, international, operations, safety, strategy, suppression, Wildfire}, url = {https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/2349/}, author = {Greg Penney} } @article {bnh-6246, title = {Working outside {\textquoteleft}the rules{\textquoteright}: Opportunities and challenges of community participation in risk reduction}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {44}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Research has shown that greater community action is needed for effective risk reduction. Community participation in risk reduction ranges from action that is initiated and led by members of the public, independently of government assistance, to those that are initiated and facilitated by government and non-government organisations. Natural hazards research has demonstrated that despite awareness of and a desire to reduce risk, many community members lack the physical, psychological or financial capacity to take action. This is particularly the case for bushfires, where preparations can be costly and physically demanding. In response to this, Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) established the Community Fire Unit (CFU) program. CFUs are groups of residents who are provided with education, training and equipment to enable them to reduce risks around their homes through enhanced preparation and some bushfire defence. This paper examines the experiences and views of CFU members after bushfires in the Blue Mountains, NSW in October 2013. The majority of respondents believed that their participation in the CFU program reduced bushfire risk and led to a greater sense of community and social capital in their local area. However, the research revealed challenges associated with participating within the formal, top-down structures of a professional fire brigade. Respondents therefore considered that greater flexibility was needed with simultaneously greater support and autonomy from FRNSW. The paper explores the experiences, challenges and opportunities presented by a top-down community based risk reduction program and considers the implications for community participation in risk reduction more generally.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Community participation, Disaster risk reduction, hazard, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101396}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919304832?dgcid=author}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Deanne Bird and J Whittaker} } @conference {bnh-6410, title = {ACCESS-Fire: coupled fire-atmosphere modelling}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Coupled models are a class of fire prediction models that integrate a fire component with an atmospheric component, to examine how the energy released by a fire modifies the surrounding atmosphere. Coupled models can resolve complex interactions between the fire, topography and atmosphere, which subsequently manifest on fire behaviour. Results from simulations promote understanding of the driving processes in dynamic fire events. This can inform development of predictive tools that may be used to anticipate extreme fire behaviour and mitigate against the impacts of significant fires.

Globally, several coupled models have been developed; mostly by meteorological institutions for application in a research capacity. They can be broadly separated as taking either physical or empirical modelling approaches. We are running ACCESS-Fire; an empirical coupled model. It links the research version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to a set of empirically derived fire spread equations. In this presentation we will describe the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS Fire and report on progress on simulations of recent significant fire events.

In Australia and overseas, the imperative for accurate, flexible and timely predictions for prescribed (fuel reduction) burns and bushfires will only increase. Incorporating complex, dynamical meteorological fields is a critical component in building fire prediction systems that can resolve some of the most destructive elements of fire behaviour. Although coupled fire-atmosphere models are currently limited in producing timely operational output due to computational requirements, these restrictions will diminish as technology capabilities continue to increase.

}, keywords = {coupled models, Fire behaviour, fire-atmosphere, Forecasting, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-5423, title = {Active fires: Early fire detection and mapping using HIMAWARI-8 Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {458}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNH CRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source to Sentinel Hotspots program. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now and in the future.

}, keywords = {Fire, HIMAWARI-8, mapping}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-5494, title = {Analysis of damage surveys of houses and preliminary input of VAWs}, number = {477}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Significant financial loss in terms of cost of rebuilding or repair and loss of function of property (e.g. commercial activity, rental, relocation of residents, etc.), has been documented following recent severe tropical cyclones impacting the Australian coastal communities. These damage investigations estimate that the wind speeds in these events were less than the Australian building standard{\textquoteright}s design level wind speed for the regions impacted. Analysis of insurance claims data highlights issues with wind driven rain water damage. Additionally, investigations of the damaged buildings along with analysis of claims data reveals a high proportion of the losses are associated with contemporary construction as opposed to pre-current code buildings.\ 

Education and awareness of consequences of such failures (e.g. damage to property and risk to life) is required in all steps of the building process (regulation, design, construction, certification and maintenance) and by all parties (designer, builder, certifier, and owner).

}, keywords = {building risk, resilience, severe wind, VAWs}, author = {David Henderson and Daniel Smith and Korah Parackal and John Ginger} } @article {bnh-5620, title = {Analysis of design standards and applied loads on road structures under extreme events}, number = {480}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the fourth report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project B8, entitled {\textquoteleft}Enhancing the Resilience of Critical Road Infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards{\textquoteright}. The work presented here addresses milestone 3.2.2 {\textquotedblleft}Analysis of design standards completed{\textquotedblright} and 3.2.3 {\textquotedblleft}Draft report 4{\textendash} Loads applied on structures under extreme events (flood, earthquake, fire){\textquotedblright}, which are due on 30 December 2015. Thus, this draft report will be reviewed and refined through the input of the external stakeholders, in particular Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (DTMR), VicRoads, RMS (NSW) and the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC).
The following draft report presents an analysis of relevant design codes in regards to bridges, culverts and flood-ways design considerations under natural hazards (earthquake, flood and bushfire). Although effort has been made to include major design codes, the main focus of the practice code analysis has been Australian codes, major American codes and European codes. Section 5 also discusses the strengthening methods for reinforced concrete members under natural hazards.

}, keywords = {applied loads, engineering, extreme weather, resilience, structure}, issn = {480}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-6667, title = {Applying the principles of adaptive governance to bushfire management: a case study from the South West of Australia}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Planning and Management}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {1-26}, abstract = {

Bushfires are a global climate change challenge and a critical disaster issue for Australia. Adaptive governance has emerged as a model to address socio-ecological issues such as disasters. This paper discusses four principles of adaptive governance: polycentric institutions, collaboration, social learning, and reflexivity and examines how these are reflected in the policy and practice of bushfire management in the South West of Australia. Findings demonstrate that current disaster policy discourse, which influences bushfire management, increasingly advocates for principles associated with adaptive governance. However, a case study on the Shire of Augusta-Margaret River found that the extent to which these principles translate into bushfire management practice is largely influenced by interpretive worldview policy frames. The paper suggests that governance for bushfire management could become more adaptive in its approach by incorporating more collaborative management activities, deliberative policy processes and reflexive practice.

}, keywords = {adaptive governance, Bushfire, collaboration, disaster, reflexivity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2019.1648243}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09640568.2019.1648243}, author = {Simone Ruane} } @conference {bnh-6505, title = {Are we future ready? It depends on who you ask }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key problem faced in preparing for future disasters is a problem of imagination. It is a problem embedded in the stories we tell about what we imagine might happen. These stories tend to focus on a {\textquoteleft}bell curve{\textquoteright} distribution of disaster events, combining our own lived experience with the stories of others. This combination of personal experiences and the stories of others forms the basis of our perception of risk and vulnerability. This is a dynamic and ongoing process. The story is never finished, nor is it complete, as we selectively incorporate or reject information depending on its source, content and compatibility with the existing narrative.

The existing narrative for natural hazard management incorporates perceptions of probability; generally, {\textquoteleft}disaster consequences will tend to hover close to the mean and every now and then we will be tested{\textquoteright}. As the volume of hazards grows the narrative is more deeply imbued with concepts of coping and {\textquoteleft}lessons learned{\textquoteright}. If certain narratives are allowed to flourish uncontested within an organisation an ironic consequence can be a failure of imagination and coping. A failure to be future ready.

This paper is a discussion about the extent to which we{\textquoteright}re future ready using the Johari window as a heuristic and reflecting on a case study from Indonesia.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future disasters, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Sutton, S and Paton, Douglas and Burgelt , Petra T. and Ella Meilianda and Saut Sagala} } @article {bnh-5481, title = {Assessing the ability of image based point clouds captured from a UAV to measure the terrain in the presence of canopy cover}, journal = {forests}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Point clouds captured from Unmanned Aerial Systems are increasingly relied upon to provide information describing the structure of forests. The quality of the information derived from these point clouds is dependent on a range of variables, including the type and structure of the forest, weather conditions and flying parameters. A key requirement to achieve accurate estimates of height based metrics describing forest structure is a source of ground information. This study explores the availability and reliability of ground surface points available within point clouds captured in six forests of different structure (canopy cover and height), using three image capture and processing strategies, consisting of nadir, oblique and composite nadir/oblique image networks. The ground information was extracted through manual segmentation of the point clouds as well as through the use of two commonly used ground filters, LAStools lasground and the Cloth Simulation Filter. The outcomes of these strategies were assessed against ground control captured with a Total Station. Results indicate that a small increase in the number of ground points captured (between 0 and 5\% of a 10 m radius plot) can be achieved through the use of a composite image network. In the case of manually identified ground points, this reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) error of the terrain model by between 1 and 11 cm, with greater reductions seen in plots with high canopy cover. The ground filters trialled were not able to exploit the extra information in the point clouds and inconsistent results in terrain RMSE were obtained across the various plots and imaging network configurations. The use of a composite network also provided greater penetration into the canopy, which is likely to improve the representation of mid-canopy elements.

}, keywords = {drones, Fire, forest measurement, image based point clouds, RPAS, structure from motion, UAS}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f10030284}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/3/284}, author = {Luke Wallace and Chris Bellman and Bryan Hally and Jaime Hernandez and Simon Jones and Samuel Hillman} } @article {bnh-5688, title = {Assessment of the Dual Polarimetric Sentinel-1A Data for Forest Fuel Moisture Content Estimation}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a crucial variable affecting fuel ignition and rate of fire spread. Much work so far has focused on the usage of remote sensing data from multiple sensors to derive FMC; however, little attention has been devoted to the usage of the C-band Sentinel-1A data. In this study, we aimed to test the performance of C-band Sentinel-1A data for multi-temporal retrieval of forest FMC by coupling the bare soil backscatter linear model with the vegetation backscatter water cloud model (WCM). This coupled model that linked the observed backscatter directly to FMC, was firstly calibrated using field FMC measurements and corresponding synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatters (VV and VH), and then a look-up table (LUT) comprising of the modelled VH backscatter and FMC was built by running the calibrated model forwardly. The absolute difference (MAEr) of modelled and observed VH backscatters was selected as the cost function to search the optimal FMC from the LUT. The performance of the presented methodology was verified using the three-fold cross-validation method by dividing the whole samples into equal three parts. Two parts were used for the model calibration and the other one for the validation, and this was repeated three times. The results showed that the estimated and measured forest FMC were consistent across the three validation samples, with the root mean square error (RMSE) of 19.53\% (Sample 1), 12.64\% (Sample 2) and 15.45\% (Sample 3). To further test the performance of the C-band Sentinel-1A data for forest FMC estimation, our results were compared to those obtained using the optical Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data and the empirical partial least squares regression (PLSR) method. The latter resulted in higher RMSE between estimated and measured forest FMC with 20.11\% (Sample 1), 26.21\% (Sample 2) and 26.73\% (Sample 3) than the presented Sentinel-1A data-based method. Hence, this study demonstrated that the good capability of C-band Sentinel-1A data for forest FMC retrieval, opening the possibility of developing a new operational SAR data-based methodology for forest FMC estimation.

}, keywords = {bare soil backscatter linear model, dual polarimetric Sentinel-1A, fuel moisture content, ignition, remote sensing, vegetation backscatter water cloud model}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11131568}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/13/1568}, author = {Long Wang and Xingwen Quan and Binbin He and Marta Yebra and Minfeng Xing and Xiangzhuo Liu} } @article {bnh-6329, title = {Augmenting physical 3D models with projected information to support environmental knowledge exchange}, journal = {Applied Geography}, volume = {112}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, abstract = {

Participatory GIS has emerged as a useful tool for participatory planning and collaborative decision making. Many participatory GIS approaches are low-tech methods, including using physical objects such as 3D topographical models to assist with landscape recognition. More recently, physical 3D models have been augmented with light projection of digital landscape information and simulation models. Here we describe approaches currently being employed using 3D Projection-Augmented Landscape Models (3DPALM). We also explore the potential of emerging approaches that bridge traditional 3D participatory GIS and geosimulation models. Case studies are presented from Australia, Mexico and Canada that use physical 3D landscapes augmented with geosimulation models to support participatory planning, education and cross-cultural knowledge exchange. The work described in this paper suggests there are significant opportunities for the wider use of 3DPALM application to support a broad range participatory planning applications.

}, keywords = {3D-printed landscapes, Participatory GIS, Participatory modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102095}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0143622818312621}, author = {Rohan Fisher and Scott Heckbert and Jose Maria Leon Villalobos and Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-5616, title = {Australian householders{\textquoteright} psychological preparedness for potential natural hazard threats: An exploration of contributing factors}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Considerable attention has been given by researchers to householders{\textquoteright} material, or physical, preparedness for impact of a severe natural hazard. Somewhat less attention has been paid to psychological preparedness for such an event. This paper first reviews conceptual formulations of psychological preparedness for disasters, and self-report measures of the construct. Previous research findings about correlates of psychological preparedness are discussed. We report findings from a survey of 1,253 Australian households. Scores on two psychological preparedness subscales (Knowledge and management, Anticipation and awareness) were correlated with scores on a measure of material preparedness. For both women and men, seven factors were found to be associated with both psychological and material preparedness: (a) information awareness about psychological preparedness, (b) previous emergency services training or experience, (c) previous experience of natural hazard threat, (d) higher mindfulness scores, (e) higher active engagement coping style scores, (f) low stress scores, and (g) low depression scores. It was concluded that important issues remain to be addressed about how householder psychological preparedness for disasters is best conceptualised, measured, and modified.

}, keywords = {Coping, disasters, Mindfulness, Natural hazards, Psychological preparedness, Stress}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101203}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918310690}, author = {Danielle Every and Jim McLennan and Amy Reynolds and Trigg, Josh} } @article {bnh-6225, title = {Behaviour around floodwater: challenges for floodwater safety and risk communication}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {40-47}, abstract = {

There is little disagreement that entering floodwater is risky, whether in a vehicle or on foot. There is usually little or no visibility of what is under the surface and even shallow water with moderate flow can make vehicles unstable or sweep people off their feet. In addition, floodwater will often contain contaminants and debris. Therefore, the safest course of action is to avoid entering floodwater. Indeed, the most pervasive risk communication message is {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright}. This clear, unambiguous message is good at getting people{\textquoteright}s attention, but it is unclear whether it actually changes behaviour. Research with Australian public, floodplain management professionals, State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, and other emergency management experts has identified a number of challenges to floodwater safety and risk communications. Using a combination of research evidence and expert opinion, this paper discusses four pressing challenges and highlights some of the approaches being taken to help address them.

}, keywords = {communications, Fatalities, floodwater, risk, safety}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-behaviour-around-floodwater-challenges-for-floodwater-safety-and-risk-communication/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Joshua McLaren and Peter Readman and Diana Ferguson and Sascha Rundle and Danny Rose} } @article {bnh-6160, title = {Beyond Binary: (Re)Defining {\textquotedblleft}Gender{\textquotedblright} for 21st Century Disaster Risk Reduction Research, Policy, and Practice}, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}, volume = {16}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, chapter = {3984}, abstract = {

The dominant discourse of gender focuses on the binary of woman/man, despite the known additional risks for diverse sexualities and gender minorities in disasters. Given the small but growing body of literature concerning gender minorities in disasters, this paper sets out to explore the place of sex and gender minorities in disasters and to examine whether a binary definition needs to be extended. A five-stage rapid review was undertaken following Arksey and O{\textquoteright}Malley{\textquoteright}s method. Peer-reviewed journal articles in English language were sought that included disaster and gender terms in the title, abstract, and/or body of the article published between January 2015 and March 2019. The search included MEDLINE and Scopus databases. Relevant information from the studies were charted in Microsoft Excel, and results were summarized using a descriptive analytical method. In total, 729 records were identified; 248 that did not meet the inclusion criteria were excluded and 166 duplicates were removed. A total of 315 records were sourced and their full text was reviewed. Of those, only 12 journal articles included content relative to more than two genders. We also recognized that sex and gender terms were used interchangeably with no clear differentiation between the two. We recommend that disaster scholars and practitioners adopt correct terminology and expand their definition of gender beyond the binary; utilize work on gender fluidity and diversity; and apply this to disaster research, policy, and practice

}, keywords = {gender; gender minorities; disaster; rapid review; binary}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16203984}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/20/3984}, author = {Ashleigh Rushton and Lesley Gray and Justin Canty and Kevin Blanchard} } @article {bnh-5687, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: project report 2014-2016}, number = {485}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Final Report summarises progress on Building Best Practice in Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR), with a focus on the 3 year project, 2014-16.\  The first 3 years has included scoping and review, the development of a conceptual framework to guide the research, a utilisation roadmap, and the initiation of pilot and main research.\  The CC-DRR Project conceptual framework reflects a parsimonious research narrative designed to build on research-policy-practice progress to date but, critically, solve problems and challenges across that nexus

}, keywords = {child-centred disaster risk reduction, Emergency; Disaster; Citizen action; Emergence; Informal volunteerism; Resilience}, issn = {485}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-7792, title = {Building emergency management capacity in remote north Australian communities {\textendash} status report, November 2019}, number = {639}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This status report addresses the following activities:

Current research activities

1. Developing effective EM partnerships

1.1 Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku

i. Reinstating traditional governance authority

ii. Recent progress at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku

1.2 Ramingining

i. Recent progress at Ramingining

ii. Lessons learnt

2. Scenario planning for remote community risk management\ 

Proposed workshop activity

1. Developing a BNHCRC utilisation project focused on building effective EM partnerships with remote communities

1.1 Background

1.2 Utilisation proposal

i. Phase 1

ii. Phase 2

1.3 Participants

1.4 Expected benefits\ 

}, keywords = {Capability, communities, emegency management, northern Australia, remote}, issn = {639}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Glenn James and Sithole, B and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-5831, title = {Building resilience through flood risk communication annual report 2018-2019}, number = {509}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprises two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Evaluating flood risk communication materials and developing guidelines.

This project is based on the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focuses on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

The focus is on the at-risk groups identified from this earlier research including emergency services personnel, younger and older male drivers, and children and young adults who play in floodwater (Haynes et al., 2017).

The year 2 activities that have been undertaken include:

Work is now underway to transition to Phase 2 activities and to maximise project utilisation opportunities.

}, keywords = {communication, emergency management., Flood, resilience, risk, risk mitigation}, issn = {509}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa} } @conference {bnh-6405, title = {Business involvement in natural disasters in Australia and New Zealand }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic natural disasters by definition overwhelm the capability and capacity of emergency management organisations, at which times, the business sector can provide additional resources to assist communities. This study analyses the involvement of businesses in disaster management in Australia and New Zealand in three severe disaster events: the Black Saturday bushfires (2009); the Queensland floods (2010-11); and the Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-11). It finds that businesses are already assisting communities to respond and recover from disasters, but there exists significant potential for further participation given a large number of businesses did not report involvement. Businesses are motivated by commitments to their staff and customers and corporate social responsibility, reflecting more complex business objectives then solely profit generation.

}, keywords = {business, communities, disasters, Natural hazards, recovery}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5299, title = {Calculation of critical water flow rates for wildfire suppression}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, chapter = {3}, abstract = {

Predicting water suppression requirements and its impacts on firefighting strategies and logistics within the urban environment has been the subject of many previous studies, however the same level of research has yet to be applied in the realm of wildfire suppression. To work towards addressing this knowledge gap, this paper provides guidance for Incident Controllers in relation to critical water flow rates required to extinguish large wildfire across a wide range of forest fuel loads, fire weather and active fire front depths. This is achieved through mathematical empirical analysis of water flow rates required for head fire suppression during 540 simulated wildfires in forest vegetation. This research applies a fire engineering approach to wildfire suppression logistics and deterministically assess the suitability of appliance and aircraft based head fire suppression. The results highlight the limitations of offensive wildfire suppression involving direct head fire attacks by appliances once wildfires attain a quasi-steady state in forest fuels.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2010003}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/1/3/htm}, author = {Greg Penney and Daryoush Habibi and Marcus Cattani and Murray Carter} } @conference {bnh-6511, title = {A case study of South Australia{\textquoteright}s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

On September 28, 2016 one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and eastern parts of the state. Multiple supercell thunderstorms were embedded in a Quasi-Linear Convective System aligned with a strong cold front that was associated with an intense low-pressure system. The storms produced at least seven tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, large hail and intense rainfall. Transmission lines were brought down in four different locations, which contributed to a state-wide power outage.

Accurate prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important, for timely preparation and announcement of warnings. By conducting high-resolution simulations, this study aims to offer a better understanding of the meteorology of the South Australian thunderstorm and tornado outbreak. It also contributes to improving knowledge of how to best predict similar severe weather events, which in turn enables better risk management and preparedness for such events. Updraft
helicity, a severe storm surrogate that indicates the potential for updraft rotation in simulated storms, is used to investigate the ability of the model to predict supercell and tornado likelihood.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {modelling, risk management, Severe Weather, thunderstorm, tornado}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Dragana Zovko-Rajak and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5416, title = {Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability}, number = {454}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {1-16}, type = {Report}, keywords = {Cascading Events, Catastrophic, Emergence Management, Multi-hazard}, issn = {454}, author = {Andrew Gissing}, editor = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-5418, title = {Challenges for prescribed fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone rangelands {\textendash} the example of the Northern Territory}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Northern Australia comprises by far the most fire-prone-half of a fiery continent, where fire frequencies range from annual in the tropical savannas to periodic very-extensive fire events following above-rainfall conditions in the central Australian rangelands. As illustration of the challenges facing effective fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s 5.7 {\texttimes} 106 km2\ rangelands, we examine the status of contemporary prescribed burning activities in the Northern Territory, a 1.4 {\texttimes} 106 km2, very sparsely settled (0.18 persons km-2) jurisdiction characterised by vast flammable landscapes, few barriers to fire-spread, predominantly anthropogenic ignitions, and limited institutional resources and capacity. Unsurprisingly, prescribed-fire management is shown to be restricted to specific locales. For more effective, landscape-scale fire management, potential solutions include engagement with dispersed remote communities and incorporation of Indigenous Ranger Groups into the fire-management network, and building on the success of savanna-burning greenhouse gas emission projects as an example for incentivising landscape fire and emergency management services generally. Recently, significant steps have been taken towards implementing formal regional fire-management planning processes involving inclusive community-stakeholder engagement, and the setting of clearly defined time-constrained objectives and targets.

}, keywords = {central Australia, Emergency management, fire regime, Indigenous rangers, remote communities, risk management, savannas}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18127}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18127?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2_27_2019_23_3)\&mc_cid=676faec148\&mc_eid=73e0665bda}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Kamaljit Sangha and Yates, Cameron P. and Mark Gardener} } @article {bnh-6294, title = {Challenges for wildfire-prone urban-rural interfaces: The case of Melbourne}, journal = {Urbano}, volume = {22}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, pages = {88-105}, abstract = {

Wildfires are an ever-increasing threat for many residents of urban-rural interfaces located in wildfire-prone areas. Spatial planning is an important aspect of contending with wildfire risk, as it has the potential to modify the design, location and\ characteristics of settlements. However, planning systems can struggle to integrate actions to this end. Using a case-study methodology, this paper reflects on treatment responses to key wildfire risk factors in urban-rural interfaces and the challenges associated with this task. It analyses the case of Melbourne from the perspective of the spatial planning mechanisms addressing wildfire risk that are related to physical structures and the roles of agencies. The physical risk treatment responses are examined considering mapping, strategic actions and decision-making processes. Finally, the following challenges faced by spatial planning mechanisms when addressing wildfire risk are also highlighted: the direct and indirect influence of politics, other planning demands that compete with and slow risk management, implementation limitations, and problems associated with the legacy of risk in existing settlements.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk, peri-urban, spatial planning, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.22320/07183607.2019.22.39.05}, url = {http://revistas.ubiobio.cl/index.php/RU/article/view/3309}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March and Janet Stanley} } @article {bnh-5720, title = {Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modeling of Floods}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {55}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Flood modeling at the regional to global scale is a key requirement for equitable emergency and land management. Coupled hydrological-hydraulic models are at the core of flood forecasting and risk assessment models. Nevertheless, each model is subject to uncertainties from different sources (e.g., model structure, parameters, and inputs). Understanding how uncertainties propagate through the modeling cascade is essential to invest in data collection, increase flood modeling accuracy, and comprehensively communicate modeling results to end users. This study used a numerical experiment to quantify the propagation of errors when coupling hydrological and hydraulic models for multiyear flood event modeling in a large basin, with large morphological and hydrological variability. A coupled modeling chain consisting of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byr{\r a}ns Vattenbalansavdelning and the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP was used for the prediction of floodplain inundation in the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), from 2006 to 2012. The impacts of discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs on the predicted inundation patterns were analyzed by moving from small upstream catchments to large lowland catchments. The numerical experiment was able to identify areas requiring tailored modeling solutions or data collection. Moreover, this study highlighted the high sensitivity of inundation volume and extent prediction to uncertainties in flood peak values and explored challenges in time-continuous modeling. Accurate flood peak predictions, knowledge of critical morphological features, and an event-based modeling approach were outlined as pragmatic solutions for more accurate prediction of large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of flood dynamics, particularly in the presence of low-accuracy elevation data.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, land management, modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR024289}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Guy Schumann and Ashkan Shokri and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @conference {bnh-6525, title = {Climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Climate change is recurrently cited as the most important perceived challenge of this century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; Watts et al. 2017). Yet, the perceptions of the risk of climate change, its societal impacts, ramifications and particularly the solutions needed to address it require further investigation.

This study profiles regional emergency and disaster management professional{\textquoteright}s perceptions of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania. We aimed to examine what evidence exists to support decision making and profile the nature, type and potential human impact of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Decision making, disaster, Emergency management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Cuthbertson, Joseph} } @article {bnh-5654, title = {Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {271}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, chapter = {148-157}, abstract = {

Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions.

}, keywords = {Burn window, Climate change, Fire weather, Global warming, Hazard reduction, Prescribed burning, prescribed fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192319301091}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Bruce Tran and Matthias M. Boer and Owen Price and Belinda Kenny and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7478, title = {Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {46}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {8517-8526}, abstract = {


Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire-atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C-Haines) and near-surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C-Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C-Haines and near-surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060-2079 versus 1990-2009, with future C-Haines increases linked to increased 850-hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire-prone landscapes.

}, keywords = {atmospheric instability, dewpoint depression, Fire weather, Natural hazards, pyrocumulonimbus, regional climate modeling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699}, author = {Giovanni Virgilio and Jason P. Evans and Stephanie Blake and Matthew Armstrong and Dowdy, Andrew J and Jason J. Sharples and McRae} } @conference {bnh-6530, title = {Climate Ready Communities: empowering communities to spread climate preparedness messaging and take local action}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has articulated an urgent need to address climate change in its recent report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5{\textdegree}C. Even the most optimistic projections indicate the inevitability of some increase in global temperatures, even if emissions were to be significantly reduced today. With the most vulnerable likely to be the hardest hit by changing weather patterns driving natural hazards of increased severity and frequency, it is essential that communities have access to resources and support to adapt.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, communities, community support, Global warming, local action, Preparedness, resources}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Nick Banks and Dani Austin} } @article {bnh-6311, title = {Community benefits of roof upgrades}, number = {528}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Legacy houses (Houses built Pre-1982) are at risk of damage from wind loads due to the often inadequate roof hold down provided by connection details. Improving wind resistance through replacing roof connections or retrofitting the existing structure can greatly improve building performance and community safety. The Queensland Government Household Resilience Program (HRP) provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program developed with advice from the Cyclone Testing Station is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDPWH) and commenced in late 2018.

}, keywords = {community resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, resilience, roof, Severe Weather}, issn = {528}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6034, title = {Community engagement techniques toolkit}, number = {516}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {516}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-6854, title = {Cost effectiveness of fire management strategies in southern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, pages = {427-439}, abstract = {

Fire-management agencies invest significant resources to reduce the impacts of future fires. There has been increasing public scrutiny over how agencies allocate fire-management budgets and, in response, agencies are looking to use quantitative risk-based approaches to make decisions about expenditure in a more transparent manner. Advances in fire-simulation software and computing capacity of fire-agency staff have meant that fire simulators have been increasingly used for quantitative fire-risk analysis. Here we analyse the cost trade-offs of future fire management in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and surrounding areas by combining fire simulation with Bayesian Decision Networks. We compare potential future-management approaches considering prescribed burning, suppression and fire exclusion. These data combined costs of treatment and impacts on assets to undertake a quantitative risk analysis. The proposed approach for fuel treatment in ACT and New South Wales (NSW) provided the greatest reduction in risk and the most cost-effective approach to managing fuels in this landscape. Past management decisions have reduced risk in the landscape and the legacy of these treatments will last for at least 3 years. However, an absence of burning will result in an increased risk from fire in this landscape.

}, keywords = {Bayesian Network, house loss, life loss, prescribed fire, risk}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18128}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18128}, author = {Trent Penman and Brett Cirulis} } @article {bnh-5433, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {464}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
This project arose out of the on-going research efforts by the group involving\ structural engineering academics at the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne and\ Swinburne with Geoscience Australia experts all working towards seismic risk\ reduction in Australia. Most of the research team are actively involved in the\ revision to the Australian Earthquake Loads standard (AS1170.4) as well as being\ members of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society which is a Technical\ Society of Engineers Australia. The devastating impact of the 2010{\textendash}11\ earthquakes in the Christchurch region on the New Zealand economy and\ society has further motivated this group to contribute to this CRC{\textquoteright}s aims of risk\ reduction for all natural hazards in Australia.\ This project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making\ on the mitigation of the risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings\ subject to earthquakes. While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of\ the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as\ bridges, roads and ports, while at the\ same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural\ Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.
}, keywords = {cost-mitigation, earthquake}, author = {Michael Griffith and Hossein Derakhshan and Elisa Lumantarna and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5480, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: progress report on economic loss modelling }, number = {472}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings.\  It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:-

This report describes progress made against the last component which is directed at economic loss modelling.\  The work has been guided by, and is consistent with, the project team consensus achieved at a single day workshop convened at Swinburne University on the 23rd October 2015.

The economic loss modelling approach aims to encompass the information needs of a range of decision makers.\  These view benefits through different {\textquotedblleft}lenses{\textquotedblright} and at differing scales.\  For this research they include:-

In this report a background is provided on the motivations for this project.\  The current findings of an ongoing literature survey are presented, and the economic modelling frameworks proposed by the project team are described.\  This report corresponds with the Geoscience Australia component of the 30 June 2016 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Progress Report on Economic and Damage Loss Models{\textquotedblright}.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, Disaster management, earthquake modelling}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5485, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development For Flood Prone Buildings: Flood Damage Models For Floodplain Management Workshop}, number = {473}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the proceedings and outcomes of a flood vulnerability workshop held at RMIT University in Melbourne on 14 June 2018. The workshop was convened as part of a research utilisation project under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquoteright}Costeffective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright}. Key workshop aims were to finalise the project scope with key stakeholders, establish a Project Steering and identify case study communities for consideration. The research utilisation project entails working with a variety of stakeholders with the aim of translating detailed flood vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers. It involves developing and testing a number of resolution options (from asset specific vulnerability assessments to more generalised methods) in a series of case studies. The workshop structure featured presentations and discussion following a logical flow from context setting, scope refinement and consensus through to governance and next steps. The key workshop aims described above were achieved and a series of {\textquoteleft}next steps{\textquoteright} were identified and documented in this report.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood risk, floodplain}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-5743, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood proof buildings - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {496}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood prone}, issn = {496}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5742, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for building related earthquake risk - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {498}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of 12-month research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings. Progress has been made in 3 complementary fronts to:
1) Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
2) Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model; and
3) Advance an end user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The last component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, cost-mitigation, earthquake, risk}, issn = {498}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5775, title = {Coupled fire atmosphere modelling annual report 2018-2019}, number = {501}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project goal is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned project outcomes include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past three years has been on several fronts; 1) publication of a case study of the Waroona fire and related outreach activities 2) implementing, developing and testing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire 3) operational support during high-impact events and 4) draft of the paper {\textquoteright} Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright}.

}, keywords = {bushfire prediction, coupled-fire, fire behavour. fire impacts, modelling}, issn = {501}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @mastersthesis {bnh-7361, title = {Damage modelling of reinforced concrete bridge piers under flood and log impact}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia has suffered from the loss of life and extreme damage to infrastructure from natural hazards such as bushfire, flood etc. Floods are Australia{\textquestiondown}s costliest disasters on bridges, one of the most important components of highway and railway transportation network. Therefore, safety and serviceability of bridges have always been a great concern to the practice and profession of civil engineering. The resilience of critical infrastructures such as roads and bridges is vital in evacuation support activities for during, before and after disaster response and recovery. In addition, bridges have a significant impact on the resilience of road infrastructure and the damage to bridges could significantly increase the vulnerability of the community served by the transportation infrastructure. Therefore, understanding the factors which affect the resilience of bridge structures, is extremely important to ensure the design specifications, as well as maintenance regimes for bridge structures. Furthermore, considering the resilience and vulnerability of structures is vital during, before and after disasters. Roads Corporation of Victoria (VicRoads) has identified that older structures consisting of U-slab decks are vulnerable to flood loading. The proposed project will focus on understanding damages to U-slab bridges exposed to flood loading.\ \ \ 
The vulnerable element of the case study U-slab bridges has been identified using a simplified analysis using Space-Gass. This analysis indicated that the superstructure of a U slab structure is quite robust under flood loading and slender piers can be vulnerable. Water flow pressure on the piers has been studied using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CDF) methodology to examine the pressure distribution on piers with two different cross-sectional shapes. This work has demonstrated that the pressure distribution on a bridge pier under flood loading can be simulated using a uniformly distributed load. Further, it is noted that the magnitude of the flood-induced force is significantly affected by the geometry of the pier cross-section.
Considering the concrete plasticity damage (CPD) modelling, nonlinear analysis has been conducted to evaluate the damage behaviour of the piers, and a simple damage index based on energy absorbed, which can be derived from a standard finite element modelling output, has been introduced. Based on that different damage levels of a bridge pier under flood loading damage indices have been derived.
Based on the review of practice and the literature review the log or moving object impact is likely to be occurring during flood loading. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation has been conducted to understand the structural response of a moving object impact, i.e., log impact. Using a validated model, the general relationship between different aspects of the structural response has been studied. Moreover, the bridge damage response during log impact has been studied, and the numerical results have been compared to provisions of different design standards. This study has concluded that the current provisions of design standards on the log or any moving object impact on bridges under flood loading could be unconservative and will require a systematic study considering the varying mass of impacts and the geometry of bridge piers.
}, keywords = {Bridge, engineering, Flood, modelling}, url = {https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=alma9921892810901341\&context=L\&vid=61RMIT_INST:ResearchRepository\&lang=en\&search_scope=ResearchETD\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=Research\&query=any,contains,Maryam\%20Nasim\&offset=0}, author = {Maryam Nasim} } @article {bnh-6373, title = {Defining pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters: A Delphi study}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {14}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Introduction Pharmacists are uniquely placed in the community to be of assistance to disaster-affected patients. However, the roles undertaken by pharmacists in disasters are identified based on their own experiences and networks. There is currently no definition or acknowledgment of pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters.

Objective To acquire consensus from an expert panel of key opinion leaders within the field of disaster health on pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters throughout the four disaster phases{\textemdash}prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery.

Methods A Delphi study consisting of three rounds of online surveys was utilised. Twenty-four key opinion leaders were contacted, with 15 completing all three rounds. The 15 expert panellists were presented with 46 roles identified in the literature and asked to rank their opinions on a 5-point Likert scale. This study used an international, all-hazard, and multijurisdictional approach. Consensus was benchmarked at 80\% and any role which did not reach consensus was re-queried in the subsequent round. The third round provided the results of the Delphi study and sought commentary on the acceptance or rejection of the roles.

Results Of the 46 roles provided to the expert panel, 43 roles were accepted as roles pharmacists are capable of undertaking in a disaster. There were five roles for the prevention phase, nine for the preparedness phase, 21 for the response phase, and eight for the recovery phase. The experts were asked to prioritise the top five roles for each of the disaster phases. The three roles which did not make consensus were deemed to be specialised roles for disaster pharmacists and not generalisable to the broader pharmacy profession.

Conclusion This study identifies pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters which have been accepted by the international disaster health community. The international key opinion leaders recommended that pharmacists could be undertaking 43 roles in a disaster, however, this is dependent on individual jurisdiction considerations. Pharmacy professional associations need to advocate to policymakers for legislative support and to ensure pharmacists are equipped with the training and education required to undertake these roles within specific jurisdictions.

}, keywords = {Delphi, disaster, Pharmacists, Preparedness, prevention, recovery, response}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227132}, url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0227132}, author = {Kaitlyn Watson and Judith Singleton and Vivienne Tippett and Lisa Nissen} } @article {bnh-5417, title = {Delivering effective savanna fire management for defined biodiversity conservation outcomes: an Arnhem Land case study}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Given the recent history of frequent and extensive late dry season wildfire in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone northern savannas, regional conservation-based fire management programs typically aim to mitigate wildfire through the use of strategic prescribed burning during the cooler early dry season. However, it remains unclear as to the extent such environmental management concerns are being addressed by these renewed fire management efforts. This study documents changes in fire regime in the western Arnhem Land region of northern Australia associated with the implementation of active fire management since 2006. Over a 12-year period, the regional fire regime has transitioned from late dry season, wildfire-dominated to being characterised by a majority of fires occurring as small early dry season prescribed burns. Although overall area burnt has not significantly decreased, most ecological threshold metrics have improved, with the exception of those describing the maintenance of longer-unburnt habitat. Challenges involved with defining, delivering, monitoring and evaluating heterogeneity targets are discussed.

}, keywords = {ecological thresholds, fire regimes, Prescribed burning}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18126}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18126}, author = {Jay Evans and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6293, title = {Demographic profiling: Western Australia Toodyay bushfires 2009 case study}, number = {526}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Shire of Toodyay, a small town in the Western Australian Wheatbelt region that was devastated by bushfires on 29 December 2009.

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project methodology), at either a SA2 or local government area (LGA) level, depending on available information. It also relies on official government reports for fire related statistics.

In presenting this information, we note that our demographic profiling captures the overall population-level trends, which are affected by factors including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of Toodyay both prior to (2006) and post the fires (2011, 2016).

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, optimisation, post-disaster, recovery, risk analysis}, issn = {526}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @conference {bnh-6408, title = {Denaturalising heatwaves: gendered social vulnerability in urban heatwaves, a review }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Heatwaves are dangerous and have killed more people in Australia than all other climate related disasters combined. Urban environments are considered especially vulnerable to heatwaves due to the Urban Heat Island effect. Increasing death rates from heatwaves are predicted to become one of Australia{\textquoteright}s most detrimental impacts of climate change (IPPC 2014) with major implications for emergency services and public policy development. The catastrophic dimensions of heatwave mortality are not spread evenly across society but are concentrated among specific population groups. Older people, especially women, are overrepresented in heatwave related excess mortality statistics internationally. Using a critical perspective, this paper aims to present a literature review exploring current research on social vulnerability of older women during urban heatwaves. It will illustrate how heatwave vulnerability is largely socially constructed through the intersection of deeply entrenched gender inequality with systemic socio-economic disadvantage. The review will highlight the need for heatwave intervention to be guided by a social justice perspective, to avoid older, poorer women becoming the shock absorbers of the climate crisis. This paper is part of my PhD research project at Monash University: {\textquoteleft}Denaturalising heatwaves: gendered social vulnerabilities in urban heatwaves and the use of public cool spaces as a primary heat health measure{\textquoteright}. The research has ethics approval.

}, keywords = {Climate change, deaths, heatwaves, urban, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Margareta Windisch} } @article {bnh-6011, title = {Design procedure for seismic retrofit of RC beam-column joint using single diagonal haunch}, journal = {Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, volume = {71}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {341-350}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, while the use of single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favorable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this paper, the key formulations and a design procedure for the single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint are developed. An application of the proposed design procedure is then illustrated through a case study.

}, keywords = {limited-ductile; RC frame; exterior beam-column joint; seismic retrofit; single diagonal haunch}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2019.71.4.341}, url = {http://koreascience.or.kr/article/JAKO201924750736475.page}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @conference {bnh-6510, title = {Detecting active fires from space using Himawari-8: a report from the regional New South Wales trial }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Continuous monitoring fires over Australia using Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data (available every 10 minutes) has the potential to change lives.

Active-fire hotspots are routinely available from polar-orbiting satellites such as MODIS and VIIRS (Giglio et al. 2003; Giglio et al. 2016; Schroder et al. 2014) over Australia. Active-fire hotspots from those systems are only available a few times a day, with the specific times dictates by the satellite orbits themselves. With satellite orbits not necessarily concurring with time of maximum fire activity. In late 2015 though, the Japanese Meteorological Agency launched the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite, with full-disk observations (including Australia) available every 10 minutes (Bessho et al. 2016). These frequent observations have the potential to support continuous real-time satellite monitoring of active fires over Australia.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {fire management, fires, monitoring, risk management, Satellite}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Stuart Matthews and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-5830, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme bushfire behaviour annual report 2018-2019}, number = {508}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Crown fires in forest ecosystems can pose a major threat to life and property due to their high intensities and rapid rates of spread. However, research into the prediction of crown fire dynamics in the Eucalyptus forests of Australia is limited. Previous studies have focused on coarse temporal scales, utilised low resolution weather based predictors, and often disregard the spatial nature of crown fires. Our study aimed to use observations from large wildfires in eucalypt forests to develop an empirical model to predict the likelihood of crown fire events using environmental predictors at an hourly scale. Our study was conducted in south-eastern Australia using data from fifteen large wildfires that occurred between 2009 and 2015. Fire severity maps were created for each fire at a 30\ m resolution using Landsat imagery from which we calculated the proportion of 30 m pixels experiencing crown fire within a 150 x 150 m window (2.25 ha). Predictor variables were chosen to represent the four key environmental drivers of fire behaviour, namely fuel moisture (i.e. live and dead fuel), fuel load and structure (i.e. surface, elevated, and bark fuels, and tree height), fire weather (i.e. vapour-pressure deficit, wind speed, relative wind direction) and topography (i.e. slope and ruggedness). Random Forests were used to model the effect of environmental drivers on the proportion of crown fire. Fuel moisture content variables were the best predictors of probability of crown consumption. Topographic variables and fire weather had only an intermediate influence and fuel load and structure had the lowest influence. Crown fire runs largely occurred when thresholds in vapour-pressure deficit (\<4\ kPa) and dead fuel moisture content (\<7\%) were exceeded. Predictions from the model showed a high degree of agreement with the raw fire severity maps. The proposed models have the potential to provide guidance on the likelihood of crown fire during fire events.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, extreme bushfires, fire behaviour., weather conditions}, issn = {508}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5424, title = {Determining Threshold Conditions for Extreme Fire Behaviour Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {460}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Extreme fires cause disproportionate impacts on the environment and the community. There are significant incentives to being able to predict their occurrence and behaviour. Most existing fire behaviour models have been developed based on data and observations of fires that were small to moderate in size. Consequently, they are not able to emulate the dynamic bushfire behaviour that can occur under extreme conditions.

The main aim of this project is to investigate the conditions and processes under which bushfire behaviour undergoes major transitions, including fire convection and plume dynamics, evaluating the consequences of eruptive fire behaviour (spotting events, convection driven wind damage, rapid fire spread) and determining the combination of conditions for such behaviours to occur (e.g. unstable atmosphere, fuel properties and weather conditions). To do this the project was separated into two phases. The first phase of the project was focused on data collection about extreme fires, analysis the frequency of occurrence of extreme fire phenomena and determination the potential of including them in fire behaviour models.

}, keywords = {extreme fire behaviour, fire behavour, fire management}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5648, title = {Developing and testing models of the drivers of anthropogenic and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {235}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, chapter = {34-41}, abstract = {

Considerable investments are made in managing fire risk to human assets, including a growing use of fire behaviour simulation tools to allocate expenditure. Understanding fire risk requires estimation of the likelihood of ignition, spread of the fire and impact on assets. The ability to estimate and predict risk requires both the development of ignition likelihood models and the evaluation of these models in novel environments. We developed models for natural and anthropogenic ignitions in the south-eastern Australian state of Victoria incorporating variables relating to fire weather, terrain and the built environment. Fire weather conditions had a consistently positive effect on the likelihood of ignition, although they contributed much more to lightning (57\%) and power transmission (55\%) ignitions than the 7 other modelled causes (8{\textendash}32\%). The built environment played an important role in driving anthropogenic ignitions. Housing density was the most important variable in most models and proximity to roads had a consistently positive effect. In contrast, the best model for lightning ignitions included a positive relationship with primary productivity, as represented by annual rainfall. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous ignition modelling studies. The models developed for Victoria were tested in the neighbouring fire prone states of South Australia and Tasmania. The anthropogenic ignition model performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.969) and Tasmania (AUC = 0.848), whereas the natural ignition model only performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.972; Tasmania AUC = 0.612). Model performance may have been impaired by much lower lightning ignition rates in South Australia and Tasmania than in Victoria. This study shows that the spatial likelihood of ignition can be reliably predicted based on readily available meteorological and biophysical data. Furthermore, the strong performance of anthropogenic and natural ignition models in novel environments suggests there are some universal drivers of ignition likelihood across south-eastern Australia.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, ignition, Risk modelling, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.055}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479719300568}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Rebecca Gibson and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7301, title = {Developing effective management partnerships in remote communities in northern Australia {\textendash} post cyclone response in Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {608}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Getting smart and planning what to do during hazards is something the community want to start doing for themselves. Stories about the response to cyclone Lam testify to some of the challenges and issues that the community members feel could be addressed if the community is directly involved in planning for safety. There is much interest among the communities to be involved which is not yet harnessed to the formal process. Within this there is a need to redefine the way the government sees community and underline the importance of recognizing the multiple layering of groups and interests in communities such as Ramingining and Galinwin{\textquoteright}ku.

Planning capacity exists in remote communities and there is abundant evidence on display on how complex the planning arrangements are. These plans draw on complex and often detailed ecological knowledge that exists among the relevant groups and individuals who have so far been left out of the planning process. Our big question in the project is how do we make this existing skills and knowledge visible and useful in the current government facilitated hazard response frameworks.

Equally, local authority and decision-making structures exist in contemporary/customary life. These are evident in ceremony of course but {\textquoteleft}required{\textquoteright} and expected by Yolngu/bininj to guide and support all facets of life. Significant erosion of cultural power and authority are at the heart of many community issues and the extant capacity to re-engage this authority is both complex (in its interactions with other entrenched layers of governance) and almost invisible to the outside observer (including most government agents).

To achieve the kind of collaboration required for the community to be meaningfully involved, government must accommodate calls to open up spaces for engagement. A community driven plan developed with the community provides a framework that highlights those areas of action where there is room for possible for collaboration and areas where there are opportunities for complementarity. A plan that brings together the government and the community is not yet feasible in the way communities are developing it, how do we turn current models on their heads and get government to see and try the {\textquoteleft}community way{\textquoteright}? These complementary projects at Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku are taking a {\textquoteleft}bottom up{\textquoteright} approach to establishing new grounds for more effective engagement.

}, keywords = {management, northern Australia, partnerships, post cyclone, remote communities, response}, issn = {608}, author = {Sithole, B and Glenn James} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6825, title = {Development of an interface using penalisation method for improving computational performance of bushfire simulation tools}, volume = {Master of Engineering}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {350}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wind is the dominant environmental factor affecting wildland fire intensity and spread. Previously, fire analysts and managers have relied on local measurements and site-specific forecasts to determine how winds influence fire. The advancements in computer hardware, increased availability of electronic topographical and experimental data, and advances in numerical methods for computing winds, have led to the development of new tools capable of simulating wind flow. Several numerical models have been developed for fire prediction and forecasting. Modelling wind in physics-based models like Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) has been shown to produce promising results, but at an inordinate cost. Because of the high computational expense, physics-based models are not suitable for operational use. Little research has been conducted to improve the computational speed of these models. The current study intends to decrease the computational cost of physics-based fire simulations and improve physics-based models by including more complicated driving winds.\ 

Physics-based wildfire simulations are driven by inlet boundary conditions which model the atmospheric boundary layer. Various inlet conditions, such as the 1/7-powerlaw or the log law models with artificial turbulence (e.g. the synthetic eddy method, [SEM]) can be used as an inlet to generate a statistically steady wind field for a fire simulation. The power-law inlet is the default inlet condition used in FDS where the wind develops turbulence as it sweeps through the domain, and is often used with wall-of-wind\ type methods. The log-law inlet generates a log wind profile similar to Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). Development of techniques for imposing inlet conditions and initial conditions for flow simulations have been topics of interest for the past few decades. CUrrent inlet and initial conditions requires time in a scale order of 100s of CPU hours, for generating an appropriate condition to start a fire simulation, hence resulting in increased computational expense. A novel nesting method has been implemented, which involves two regions: penalisation and blending, named as the PenaBlending method. The initial conditions of the fire simulations in FDS are set to the initial condition prescribed by an external model or simulation. This is achieved by a one-way coupling method. External wind data, for which u,v,w can vary in space and time, can be obtained. The precursor data can be generated either from any reduced wind model such as Windninha, which gives terrain\ modified wind data, or by using analytical methods such as generating logarithmic windfield using Matlab.\ These external data can be introduced into the FDS domain\ through a penalization region at the inlet/outlet. A blending region has also been\ implemented near the specified inlet/outlet which allows a smooth mixing of a precursor\ wind field to that in the simulation domain. This new inlet condition allows complicated\ terrain modified temporally and spatially varying wind fields, obtained from precursor\ simulations or any other models, to be implemented relatively easily in the FDS domain. To test the implementation of this method, a flat terrain is considered in the current study.\ However, this method could also be used for complicated terrain structures, as a part of\ future studies. The PenaBlending method provides appropriate flow conditions with reduced\ computational effort (up to  80\%), to start a fire simulation, and, hence, reduces\ the computational expense of physics-based models.

The results obtained using the PenaBlending method have been compared with that obtained using the existing inlet conditions of FDS, like the SEM method, wall-of-wind method and mean-forcing methods, using the 1/7 power-law or log-law inlets. To test these three methods, a set of fire simulations have been conducted and tested against the PenaBlending method. It was found that the results of the PenaBlending methods agree well with that of existing methods, with small variations for both the wind and fire cases.\ 

FDS 6.6.0 (the version used in this study) requires a very fine grid to obtain grid convergence. This is not feasible in the case of a large-scale simulation because of very high computation cost. FDS 6.2.0, with a reaction-rate-limiter combustion model, needs less fine grids to obtain grid convergence. Therefore, this combustion model is re-introduced into FDS 6.6.0, providing an option\ \ of choosing between two different combustion models,\ as a part of this study. For all the simulations, the reaction-rate-limiter combustion\ model has been used. The simulations are carried out in a neutral-atmospheric stability\ condition. However, the PenaBlending method can apply any general driving wind, and\ the effect of atmospheric stability, could be included, as part of future studies. The PenaBlending\ method could be extended in conjunction with Monin-Obukhov Similarity\ Theory (introduced in FDS 6.6.0) to model fire in various atmospheric stability conditions.

}, keywords = {computational fluid dynamics, Fire, fire dynamics simulator, Physics-based modelling, Wildfire, wind}, url = {http://vuir.vu.edu.au/40023/}, author = {Sesa Singha Roy} } @conference {bnh-6389, title = {Development of Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy for Limited Ductile Reinforced Concrete Buildings}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

With the new awareness that most Australian reinforced concrete (RC) buildings have not been designed to withstand seismic actions, and are considered to have limited ductility, it is essential to consider retrofitting options. This study aims to evaluate the seismic performance of an archetypal Australian RC building, and then implement various retrofit techniques to find the most suitable retrofit. The structural performance of the buildings before and after various retrofitting were compared to study the effectiveness of the proposed methods as well as the effect on the seismic hazard design factor. SeismoStruct software was used to perform the nonlinear analysis of the structures. This paper contributes to a research with the overall aim of assessing the seismic performance of existing buildings and their expected failure modes, impact of retrofitting measures, and the associated costs.

}, keywords = {earthquake, existing structures, limited ductility buildings, performance validation, seismic evaluation and retrofitting}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/55-Raneem-Alazem.pdf}, author = {Raneem Alazem and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Scott Menegon} } @article {bnh-6237, title = {Disaggregation of JASMIN soil moisture product to 1KM resolution}, number = {521}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire intensity, spread rate, and ignition are very sensitive to fuel dryness which in turn is strongly linked to soil moisture deficit. Though the value of soil moisture deficit in predicting fire danger has been long established, very few fire danger rating systems employ a comprehensive methodology to estimate it. Most such fire danger rating systems use very simple empirical water balance models which are found to have errors. The Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed a prototype, highresolution, land surface modelling based, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. The product, called Joint United Kingdom Land Environment Simulator (JULES) based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN), has a spatial resolution of 5 km at hourly timesteps. However, applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. We focus on some of the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regression-based methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied are based on the well-known surface temperature {\textendash} vegetation index space. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation and comparison against each other and against ground-based soil moisture observations. Results from comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods, when going into higher spatial resolutions. However, the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretical based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

}, keywords = {dryness, Emergency management, JASMIN, resolution, Soil moisture}, issn = {521}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-5479, title = {The disaster resilience project: a school-based feasibility and acceptability study}, number = {471}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The aim of school-based Disaster Resilience Education (DRE) is to build students{\textquoteright} understanding of the causes, nature and effects of hazards, while also fostering a range of competencies and skills that will enable them to contribute proactively to disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. The development and delivery of school-based DRE has been identified as a key priority for action in disaster resilience policy frameworks and strategies from the international to the local level. To support the delivery of the quality DRE in Victorian secondary schools, the Country Fire Authority (CFA) and the Victorian State Emergency Service (VicSES) in collaboration with secondary school teachers and students, have developed the Disaster Resilience Project (DRP) - a multi-hazard, teacher-delivered, web-based DRE program for students in Years 7 to 9. The program aims to increase students{\textquoteright} knowledge and awareness of local disaster risks and build their capacity for initiating and participating in practical action for disaster risk reduction and resilience.
The pilot version of the Disaster Resilience Project (DRP) was informed by extensive consultations with Victorian secondary school teachers, policy frameworks for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience, and the academic literature. It was comprised of a structured set of five lessons designed to guide students through an exploration of key concepts in DRR and resilience, support them to apply those concepts to their own local context, and encourage them to plan and implement a DRR or resilience building activity at home, school or in the wider community. To support the teacher-delivered model of implementation, the pilot version also included a 45-60 minute face-to-face professional development session in which CFA project staff guided teachers through the learning intentions and the teaching and learning activities for each lesson.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, Emergency; Disaster; Citizen action; Emergence; Informal volunteerism; Resilience, school}, author = {Briony Towers and Sophie Perillo and Kevin Ronan} } @conference {bnh-6409, title = {Disasters and economic resilience in small regional communities: the case of Toodyay}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We explore the effects of a small bushfire on the income trajectory of employed residents of Toodyay, a regional town in Western Australia. Our study reveals how detailed profiling, using public data, can overcome statistical limitations in disaster risk reduction exercises and better direct post-recovery interventions to minimise disruptions to important income streams in small regional towns.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, economics, resilience}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-5414, title = {Diversity and Inclusion: Building Strength and Capability- Annual Report 2018}, number = {453}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {16}, type = {Report}, keywords = {diversity, Emergency management, inclusion}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-6251, title = {Do disasters predict international pharmacy legislation?}, journal = {Australian Health Review}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to explore whether a relationship exists between the number of disasters a jurisdiction has experienced and the presence of disaster-specific pharmacy legislation.

Methods\ Pharmacy legislation specific to disasters was reviewed for five countries: Australia, Canada, UK, US and New Zealand. A binary logistic regression test using a generalised estimating equation was used to examine the association between the number of disasters experienced by a state, province, territory or country and whether they had disaster-specific pharmacy legislation.

Results\ Three of six models were statistically significant, suggesting that the odds of a jurisdiction having disaster-specific pharmacy legislation increased as the number of disasters increased for the period 2007{\textendash}17 and 2013{\textendash}17. There was an association between the everyday emergency supply legislation and the presence of the extended disaster-specific emergency supply legislation\ AH19093_IE1.gif.

ConclusionsIt is evident from this review that there are inconsistencies as to the level of assistance pharmacists can provide during times of crisis depending on their jurisdiction and location of practice. It is not a question of whether pharmacists have the skills and capabilities to assist, but rather what legislative barriers are preventing them from being able to contribute further to the disaster healthcare team.

What is known about the topic?\ The contributing factors to disaster-specific pharmacy legislation has not previously been explored in Australia. It can be postulated that the number of disasters experienced by a jurisdiction increases the likelihood of governments introducing disaster-specific pharmacy legislation based on other countries.

What does this paper add?This study compared five countries and their pharmacy legislation specific to disasters. It identified that as the number of disasters increases, the odds of a jurisdiction having disaster-specific emergency supply or disaster relocation or mobile pharmacy legislation increases. However, this is likely to be only one of many factors affecting the political decisions of when and what legislation is passed in relation to pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters.

What are the implications for practitioners?Pharmacists are well situated in the community to be of assistance during disasters. However, their ability to help patients with chronic disease management or providing necessary vaccinations in disasters is limited by the legislation in their jurisdiction. Releasing pharmacists{\textquoteright} full potential in disasters could alleviate the burden of low-acuity patients on other healthcare services. This could subsequently free up other healthcare professionals to treat high-acuity patients and emergencies.

}, keywords = {disaster, Health, legislation, pharmacy}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/AH19093}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/AH/AH19093}, author = {Kaitlyn Watson and Judith Singleton and Vivienne Tippett and Lisa Nissen} } @conference {bnh-6385, title = {Earthquake Management Logistics for York, WA, Pre and Post Mitigation}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

Rare Australian earthquake events can cause extensive damage and present significant logistical challenges for emergency management agencies and local governments. Evidence of this can be seen from recent earthquake events that include the 2010 Kalgoorlie earthquake and the 1989 Newcastle earthquake of 30 years ago. Emergency managers do not experience damaging earthquakes on the same regular basis as storms, floods, and bushfires and therefore don{\textquoteright}t always fully understand the consequences they may face. Scenario modelling can provide insights to inform response and recovery by emergency management and recovery agencies as well as demonstrate how these impacts can be moderated by the retrofit of the most vulnerable building types.

The Shire of York is partnering with the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the University of Adelaide and Geoscience Australia in a collaborative project that explores the current earthquake risk in the heritage town of York, Western Australia, and how the risk could be moderated through targeted retrofit. The project forms part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. This paper describes the approach taken and the predicted consequences modelled for a range of credible earthquake scenarios. Significantly, based on the recommendations from a stakeholder workshop in York on the 9thAugust 2018, it is also assessing how these consequences would be moderated in future decades through two rates of retrofit uptake in the town. This work is informing emergency management planning by DFES and the Shire of York. It is also illustrating the benefits of targeted community level retrofit to address the risk posed by the community building types most vulnerable to earthquakes.

}, keywords = {earthquake, Emergency management, modelling, retrofit, senario}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/70-Hyeuk-Ryu.pdf}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner and Stephen Gray and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen} } @article {bnh-5420, title = {Economics of Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {455}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. The purpose of our research is to help emergency service and land management agencies better prioritise their investments in mitigation. Using economic tools and expertise, we assess the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, in order to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards (tangible and intangible) and help agencies better allocate their resources for mitigation.

}, keywords = {economics, environment, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-7242, title = {The effect of ignition protocol on grassfire development}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, pages = {70-80}, abstract = {

The effect of ignition protocol on the development of grassfires is investigated using physics-based simulation. Simulation allows measurement of the forward rate of spread of a fire as a function of time at high temporal resolution. Two ignition protocols are considered: the inward ignition protocol, where the ignition proceeds in a straight line from the edges of the burnable fire plot to the centre of the plot; and the outwards ignition protocol, where the ignition proceeds from the centre of the burnable fire plot to the edges of the plot. In addition to the two ignition protocols, the wind speed, time taken for the ignition to be completed and ignition line length are varied. The rate of spread (R) of the resultant fires is analysed. The outwards ignition protocol leads to an (approximately) monotonic increase in\ R, whereas the inward ignition protocol can lead to a peak in\ R\ before decreasing to the quasi-equilibrium\ R. The fires simulated here typically take 50 m from the ignition line to develop a quasi-equilibrium\ R. The results suggest that a faster ignition is preferable to achieve a quasi-equilibrium\ R\ in the shortest distance from the ignition line.

}, keywords = {grassfire, ignition, physics simulation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19046}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF19046}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Jason J. Sharples and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-5570, title = {Effective diversity in emergency management organisations: the long road}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Traditionally, the human face of emergency services organisations has lacked diversity. However, escalating natural hazard risks due to social, environmental and economic drivers requires a transformation in how these risks are managed and who needs to manage them. With communities becoming more diverse, building community and organisational resilience to more frequent and intense emergency events needs organisations to change from working for communities to working with them.

This requires greater diversity in skills and capabilities in the people who apply them, making diversity and inclusion a moral and business imperative. This paper summarises findings from an assessment of the diversity and inclusion literature relevant to the emergency management sector. Three case studies that are elements of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquoteleft}Diversity and Inclusion: Building strength and capability{\textquoteright} are examined.

The research assessed the current context in which diversity and inclusion exist in each organisation and identified barriers, needs, challenges and opportunities. The major findings provide a basis to develop a support framework for effective management and measurement of diversity and inclusion.

}, keywords = {diversity, emergency services, inclusion in the emergency services/emergency management sector}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-effective-diversity-in-emergency-management-organisations-the-long-road/}, author = {Celeste Young} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5779, title = {Effects of Sydney coastal dry sclerophyll forest litter on fuels and fire behaviour in Hornsby shire}, volume = {Masters of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, school = {The University of Sydney}, type = {Masters}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Globally bushfires are an ecological phenomenon that can cause deaths and widespread destruction of assets such as homes, utilities and essential infrastructure. Bushfires usually start in forest litter on a forest floor. The research described in this thesis used empirical data to characterise the physical and chemical attributes of litter, a component of forest and woodland fuels that is particularly important for propagation of fire. Differences in the amounts, arrangement and flammability of components of litter were determined for Sydney Coastal Dry Sclerophyll Forest, a common vegetation type in the Sydney Basin. Surface litter was investigated at study sites at Rofe Park, Hornsby Heights and Halls Creek, Arcadia, New South Wales, Australia.

}, keywords = {bushfires, coastal fire, flammability, litter, rubbish, Sydney, vegetation}, author = {Angela Gormley} } @conference {bnh-6529, title = {Emergency volunteer retention: can a culture of inclusiveness help?}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Given increasingly diversified communities and the importance of attracting and retaining all volunteers irrespective of their demographic background, it is important to increase the representativeness of volunteers by promoting diversity. We surveyed emergency services volunteers from Western Australia to examine (a) whether and why culture of inclusiveness plays an important role for volunteer retention and (b) whether and why female volunteers have different perceptions of inclusivity culture in their units. Our findings demonstrated that climate for inclusion played a vital role for volunteer retention because in such climates they felt connected and related to others, and felt freedom to express themselves professionally. Despite the importance of climate for inclusion, male and female volunteers viewed this climate differently and experienced different outcomes. Female volunteers perceived marginally lower levels of climate of inclusion than men. As hypothesised, female volunteers felt more connected to their teammates in inclusive climates integrative of differences. Unexpectedly, female volunteers{\textquoteright} relatedness needs were less likely to be fulfilled in inclusive climates where they were included into decision-making.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {communities, Emergency, volunteers. diversity and inclusion}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Patrick Dunlop and Djurre Holtrop and Darja Kragt and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-5415, title = {Emergency Volunteering 2030: Views from Managers in Volunteerism}, number = {452}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is emergency volunteering going to look like in 2030? How (and by whom) is it going to be organised?

How can the emergency management sector best enable the value of volunteering for communities - before, during and after an emergency - into the future?

This report provides answers to these questions from the perspectives of 34 managers that have responsibilities for volunteerism in Australian emergency management organisations (EMOs) working across preparedness, response, relief, and recovery. The report is one of a series of Environmental Scan reports that will be synthesised and presented to an expert panel to assist researchers in developing alternative scenarios for the future of emergency volunteering to inform today{\textquoteright}s decision making.

}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Tarn Kruger} } @article {bnh-5773, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: Views from the community sector}, number = {500}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents findings from an on-line, qualitative survey of 48 community sector representatives from across the states of Australia. The purpose of the survey was to find out more about the community sector in relation to emergency volunteering and to elicit the views of key community sector representatives about changes in the volunteering landscape that have occurred in the past and are occurring now; and about their visions for a preferred future for community sector volunteering that supports communities before, during and after emergency events.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency volunteering, volunteers}, issn = {500}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5610, title = {Emergency volunteering shared learning network}, number = {478}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Volunteering Shared Learning Network (EVN) was established in September 2018, with the following goals:

The EVN was initially set up as a 6-month pilot project, sponsored by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) in conjunction with the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering research project.1 The EVN is convened by Blythe McLennan and Tarn Kruger from RMIT University.

The purpose of this report is to document the activities of the EVN during the pilot period, evaluate their impact and share learnings with the network{\textquoteright}s members as well as other BNHCRC researchers and end users. The report will also help to inform decisions about the next steps for the EVN.

}, keywords = {Citizen action, disaster, Emergence, Emergency, Informal volunteerism, resilience, volunteering}, issn = {478}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-6126, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure annual report 2018-2019}, number = {519}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decision-making process.

During the last financial year, the research team has published seven peer-reviewed journal papers (5 Scimago Q1 journal papers), 13 national/international conferences papers and one technical report, while there are eight journal papers under review now.

The major research activities include the generic analysis of bridges in terms of structural analysis, community impact model for decision making on strengthening, floodway inspection methodology, and strengthening options for different hazard types and levels. A floodway inspection and maintenance framework were also developed to guide the future inspection and maintenance of those bridges, especially for those have undergone hazard events.

Four workshops and four meetings were held during the second year of Stage 2 of the project. Two workshops were held at RMIT University to discuss with end users and colleagues regarding the feedback and comments of the project progresses. One workshop was held at the University of Southern Queensland and the Queensland University of Technology, respectively. Feedbacks from these end users have largely benefited the research progress.

Four major utilization activities have been identified and are in progress.

Our next step is to focus on the remaining milestones and engaging with those end users to tailor the research direction and fulfill their urgent research needs. The final project completion report will be also submitted then for the review of BNH CRC.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, engineering, infrastructure resilience}, issn = {519}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5435, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {466}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During stage 1 of the project, disaster risk was understood in terms of the vulnerability of road structures, and the impacts of road failure on local communities. Stage 2 aims to enhance disaster preparedness, inform more effective responses, and ensuring that damaged structures are built back better during the recovery. In Stage 2 of this project, research will continue to apply the methods developed in Stage 1 to examine the vulnerability of categories of road structures for decision making. In addition to the assessment of structural vulnerability, a decision support framework will be developed through collaboration with other research projects of the BNH CRC such as decision making and fire modeling. The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decisionmaking process. During the first year of Stage 2, several research objectives have been achieved, including hazard mapping for Victoria and Queensland, categorization of road structures, and floodway design process. The related methodologies are introduced below one by one.

}, keywords = {bridges, floodways, infrastructure resilience, Natural hazards}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5008, title = {Evaluation and calibration of a high-resolution soil moisture product for wildfire prediction and management}, journal = { Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {264}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, pages = {12}, chapter = {27}, abstract = {

Soil moisture deficit is a key variable used in operational fire prediction and management applications. In Australia, operational fire management practices use simple, empirical water balances models to estimate soil moisture deficit. The Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed a prototype, high-resolution, land surface modelling based, state-of-the-art soil moisture analyses for Australia. The present study examines this new product for use in operational fire prediction and management practices in Australia. The approach used is twofold. First, the new soil moisture product is evaluated against observations from ground based networks. Among the results, the mean Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation for surface soil moisture across the three in-situ networks is found to be between 0.78 and 0.85. Secondly, the study evaluate a few different calibration methods to facilitate the ready utilization of the new soil moisture product in the current operational fire prediction framework. The calibration approaches investigated here are: minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching and, cumulative distribution function matching. Validation of the calibrated products using extended triple collocation technique shows that the minimum-maximum method has the highest skill. Evaluation of the calibrated products against MODIS fire radiative power data highlights that large fires correspond to a drier soil in minimum-maximum outputs compared to other calibration results and the current operational method.

}, keywords = {Calibration, Fire danger rating, Land surface model, Soil moisture deficit, Triple collocation, Verification}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192318303071}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @article {bnh-6686, title = {Evaluation of pre-intervention data: divergent thinking and brain plasticity}, number = {546}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}new normal{\textquoteright} includes larger, more complex incidents. This suggests that
leaders will need to think outside the box and use of higher cognitive skills such
as creativity that includes divergent thinking, to respond and recover from these
incidents. Processes in creativity include thinking skills that are conducive to
taking new perspectives on problems, pivoting among different ideas, thinking
broadly, and making unusual associations.

This document identifies the empirical results from a series of workshops
conducted with end-users to identify if a method for developing creative skills
and specifically divergent thinking, led to teams being more creative in the
development of options analyses.

Results indicate that teams scored significantly higher on a creativity scale after
being taught the methods to enhance their creativity.

The improvement can be traced to improvements in the criteria of fluency (the
number of options) and elaboration (embellishment of the information
provided). Teams did not demonstrate evidence of the other two criteria for
creativity (flexibility in the use of the intelligence provided and originality).
Consideration of how to build flexibility and originality into the existing method
will drive the next iteration, which will be translated into research utilisation
products over the remaining time of the project.

}, keywords = {brain plasticity, data evaluation, divergent thinking}, issn = {546}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-6392, title = {Evolution of an extreme Pyrocumulonimbus-driven wildfire event in Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Extreme fires have substantial adverse effects on society and natural ecosystems. Such events can be associated with intense coupling of fire behaviour with the atmosphere, resulting in extreme fire characteristics such as pyrocumulonimbuscloud (pyroCb) development. Concern that anthropogenic climate change is increasing the occurrence of pyroCbs globally is driving more focused research into these meteorological phenomena. Using 6-minute scans from a nearby weather radar, we describe the development of a pyroCb during the afternoon of 4 January 2013 above the Forcett-Dunalley fire in south-eastern Tasmania. We relate storm development to: (1) near-surface weather using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), and the C-Haines Index, a measure of the vertical atmospheric stability and dryness both derived from gridded weather reanalysis for Tasmania (BARRA-TA), and (2) a chronosequence of fire severity derived from remote sensing. We show that the pyroCb rapidly developed over a 24-minute period in the afternoon of 4 January, with the cloud top reaching a height of 15 km. The pyroCb was associated with a highly unstable atmosphere (C-Haines 10-11) and Severe-marginally Extreme (FFDI 60-75) near-surface fire weather, and formed over an area of forest that was severely burned (total crown defoliation). We use spatial patterns of elevated fire weather in Tasmania, and fire weather during major runs of large wildfires in Tasmania for the period 2007-2016 to geographically and historically contextualise this pyroCb event. Although the Forcett-Dunalley fire is the only known record of a pyroCb in Tasmania, our results show that eastern and south-eastern Tasmania are prone to the conjunction of high FFDI and C-Haines values that have been associated with pyroCb development. Our findings have implications for fire weather forecasting and wildfire management, and highlight the vulnerability of southeast Tasmania to extreme fire events.

}, keywords = {C-Haines, extreme fire, fire severity, Fire weather, McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, pyrocumulonimbus, smoke plume injection, Tasmania, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-354}, url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2019-354/}, author = {Mercy Ndalila and Grant Williamson and Paul Fox-Hughes and Jason J. Sharples and David Bowman} } @conference {bnh-6504, title = {Experiences with the global impacts of climate change}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Textbox Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency managers are in the grips of climate change. The climate is changing in Canberra, where I work. In turn that is affecting the spectrum of incidents that we as emergency managers are responding to. This involves the community through the risks to the community (that we seek to mitigate).

I seek to explore this through my direct experiences on the job: as an emergency manager, as a technical expert and as a research scientist. Our climate in Canberra has changed, and has changed dramatically, starting with the 1997 El Ni{\~n}o event when our climate started following what is termed the {\textquotedblleft}Hockey Stick Curve{\textquotedblright} (Mann et al, 1999). A typical summer now involves: extreme heat, extreme atmospheric moisture, extreme storms and extreme raised dust. By using the hockey stick concept it is clear that this is not the {\textquotedblleft}New Norm{\textquotedblright}, rather that the situation may deteriorate quickly.

Looking more widely, across the nation, we have seen challenging wildfire outbreaks in Queensland, Tasmania (twice) and other areas. My work as a fire behaviour analyst (FBAN) makes it clear that our prior expectations are losing their validity. What do we replace them with? Looking globally, I have deployed to Canada as an FBAN and I am collaborating as part of a global atmospheric research project looking at the growing impact of fire thunderstorms (pyroCbs). This required monitoring of smoke impact on the Greenland Ice Cap, and its potential impacts. I was in the IMT for two of the world{\textquoteright}s most significant pyroCb events. We are seeing this new wildfire problem occur in new regions, starting with Australia in 2001, but now expanding rapidly every year.

Staggering changes, devastating impacts and massive challenges - are we adapting correctly? I offer some take-home messages to help, covering observing, sharing, preparing and adapting.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, Fire behaviour, fire impacts, fire management, global impact, Wildfire}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Rick McRae} } @article {bnh-5694, title = {Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazards, along with society{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to them. Therefore, to ensure effective, long-term disaster risk reduction we must consider the dynamics of each of these components and how they change over extended periods due to population, economic and climatic drivers, as well as policy and individual decisions. This paper provides a methodology to capture these factors within exploratory scenarios designed to test the effectiveness of policy responses to reduce disaster losses. The scenarios developed and subsequent analysis of them combine knowledge and insight from stakeholders and experts, and make use of simulation modelling to enable scenarios with qualitative and quantitative elements to be integrated within risk assessment processes and contribute to strategic risk treatments. The methodology was applied to a case-study in Greater Adelaide, Australia, and used to assess how disaster risk for earthquakes, bushfire and coastal inundation changes from 2016 to 2050 under five exploratory scenarios for the future of the region. This analysis can be applied more broadly to consider how future risks impacts on regional viability, and suitability for investment related to the need to gain a better understanding of governmental and organisational exposure to physical risks.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk, Risk assessment, Scenarios, Simulation modelling, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101230}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919302286}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} } @article {bnh-6337, title = {Exploring ISO31000 Risk Management during Dynamic Fire and Emergency Operations in Western Australia}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Firefighting remains an inherently dangerous occupation with serious injuries and fatalities reported globally. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council adopt ISO31000 as the standard of risk management for all firefighting and mitigation operations. However, previous studies have reported that decisions made by incident controllers during dynamic emergencies are typically reactionary and only partially compliant with the ISO31000 process. This paper describes research using new qualitative and quantitative data that support incident controllers in managing risk during dynamic fire and emergency situations, in accordance with ISO31000. The research was completed through two studies. The first study explored risk attitudes of serving fire service officers through semistructured interviews and in-depth structured surveys. The second study identified the severity of firefighting consequences and likelihood through analysis of Western Australian fire service safety and incident reports between January 1st, 2001 and January 1st, 2015. The overall and conditional probability of specific injuries during the various tasks undertaken during emergency incidents was calculated using Bayesian statistical analysis. The findings indicate that whilst current practices are arguably effective in preventing worst case consequences being realised, improvements in operational risk management can be made in accordance with ISO31000 during emergencies and in pre-incident planning.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighting, probability, risk, risk management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020021}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/2/21}, author = {Greg Penney} } @article {bnh-5487, title = {Final report on vulnerability of as-built and retrofitted URM buildings}, number = {474}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

As reported in the previous project reports {\textquotedblleft}Fragility Curves for URM Buildings{\textquotedblright} (Derakhshan and Griffith, 2018) and {\textquotedblleft}Fragility Curves for Retrofitted URM Buildings{\textquotedblright} (Vaculik and Griffith, 2018), fragility curves are an important tool for estimating the economic loss due to earthquakes. In this report, Fragility is used as a proxy for Vulnerability.\  As a follow-up to the work presented in the previous two reports, this report presents fragility curves for {\textquoteleft}as-is{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}retrofitted{\textquoteright} URM buildings in terms of {\textquoteleft}probability of exceedance{\textquoteright} versus {\textquoteleft}peak ground acceleration{\textquoteright} (PGA) for four damage ratios, D1 {\textendash} D4. With this additional information, it will be possible to estimate the reduced damage due to seismic retrofit for cost-benefit analyses for a range of earthquake scenarios in order to ensure cost-effective seismic strengthening policy.

With this in mind, the remainder of this report should be treated as an addendum to the previous two project reports (Derakhshan and Griffith, and Vaculik and Griffith, 2018), hereafter referred to as the August and October 2018 reports.

In the October 2018 report, we described the methodology used to produce empirically-based fragility curves for seismically strengthened URM buildings on the basis of performance reported for 78 heritage-listed buildings in Christchurch during the 2010 and 2011 earthquake sequence.\ 

Empirical fragility curves for the global damage of strengthened buildings have been derived using the simplifying assumption that the PGA to cause a particular probability of a given damage state in a strengthened building can be obtained as a scalar multiple of the probability to cause the same damage state in the unstrengthened building. On the basis of this assumption, PGA scaling multipliers are calibrated which can be used to apply a rightward shift to the unstrengthened building curves (from the August 2018 report) to produce the corresponding curves for strengthened buildings. These multipliers were calibrated using the Christchurch earthquake damage data for two levels of retrofit. It was found that a multiplier of 1.4 produces good agreement for buildings with a full building strengthening level of retrofit, and a multiplier of 1.1 for buildings with partial or incomplete strengthening.\  These relatively low values are a result of the fact that the unreinforced masonry buildings in Christchurch were retrofitted as many as 50 years ago when seismic strengthening technologies for URM buildings were in their infancy.\  With advances in our understanding and improved retrofit technologies of today, where the seismic strengthening techniques have been experimentally validated, slightly higher scaling multipliers of 1.25 and 1.6 are justified and were used to generate the fragility curves for partial and full seismic retrofit, respectively.

}, keywords = {Built Environment, earthquake, URM}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5488, title = {Fire in the south: a cross-continental exchange}, number = {475}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report documents a trip undertaken across southern Western Australia (WA) to exchange knowledge from south eastern Australia about cultural burning with traditional owners and fire authorities in Norseman, Esperance, Nowanup, Albany, Bunbury and Perth. The journey took place in the anticipatory shadow of catastrophic wildfires that can destroy, and have destroyed, much of value in this part of the world.

The key learnings are summarised under the headings: Fire and life, At-risk values, Healing, Cultural burning as a contemporary practice, Volunteer training and fire skills, Relations and repair, and, East-West engagement across southern Australia. We also summarise the presentations by Dean Freeman about the ACT government cultural burning program. Together, these summaries form the substantive content of the report. They are supplemented by anecdotal accounts of each meeting, as well as background information on native title and other key terminology and concepts.

Fundamentally, the Aboriginal people we met with talked about the importance of understanding fire differently, to reposition it as not just something to fear, but as central to the regeneration of life. At the same time, all were concerned about the growth in catastrophic wildfires, and this intensified the focus on anticipatory land management practices.

Within this broader framing, the knowledge exchanged on this trip reflected that:

As a consequence of significant societal change to recognise and celebrate First Nations peoples in Australia, British derived systems of governance are required to work with Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} political entities, including partnering on fire management issues. Concomitantly, the public sector and political leadership needs to think closely about what is meant by {\textquoteleft}the public good{\textquoteright} in their policies and programs {\textendash} that is, who is the public and what do they consider is good? Whilst northern Australia is an emblematic focus of activity by and for Indigenous Australia, the majority of Australia{\textquoteright}s Indigenous people live in southern Australia, and with the recognition of native title they are now the largest land holders in southern Australia. The ACT government{\textquoteright}s support of cultural burning is one example of how fire management is being refashioned with neither land rights nor native title, but motivated individuals doing the work to make it possible, because it is the right thing to do.

Significantly, fundamental shifts in the nature of land holding in Australia are bringing the public sector into greater exposure with the connected thinking and governing systems that arise out of Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} relationships with Country. However, throughout Australia there is much more healing that needs to be done for such intercultural engagement to progress and be more meaningful for Indigenous people, including in material terms. The key players are in a good position to invest in the good will and work that is already present and take this forward.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, hazards, indigenous communities}, issn = {475}, author = {Jessica Weir and Dean Freeman} } @article {bnh-6226, title = {Fire Risk Assessment of Combustible Exterior Cladding Using a Collective Numerical Database}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, chapter = {11}, abstract = {

Recent high-profile building fires involving highly-combustible external cladding panels inAustralia as well as Dubai, China, and the United Kingdom have created a heightened awareness bythe public, government, and commercial entities to act on the risks associated with non-compliantbuilding structures. In this paper, a database of fire events involving combustible aluminiumcomposite panels was developed based on (i) review of relevant major fire events in Australia andother countries, and (ii) numerical simulation of the ignitability, fire spread, and toxic emissionsassociated with composite panels. Through the application of large-eddy-simulation (LES)-basedcomputational fire field models, the associated risks for a standardized two-storey building withexternal cladding was considered in this study. A total of sixteen simulation cases with differentinitial sizes of the fire and different air cavity widths in the exterior cladding assembly were examinedto investigate the tolerable situations and their influences. It was discovered that for most cases,with an initial fire size greater than 400 kW/m-2, the fire will spread from the first to second floorbefore the allowed egress time period.Key

}, keywords = {fire risk assessment; combustible building materials; high-rise buildings; large eddy simulation; pyrolysis}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2010011}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/1/11/htm}, author = {Timothy Bo Yuan Chen and Anthony Chun Yin Yuen and Guan Heng Yeoh and Wei Yang and Qing Nian Chan} } @conference {bnh-6411, title = {Fire weather and prototype fire danger ratings for the Gell River fire, Tasmania}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We provide a preliminary analysis of the meteorology of key aspects of the Gell River fire in Tasmania during late December 2018 and early January 2019, including the lightning storm that ignited the fire, and conditions on 4 January 2019, when the fire increased substantially in size. We also briefly assess the performance of the Australian National Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) Research Prototype available on 4 January against observations of fire spread and routine McArthur Forest Fire Danger forecasts.

The Gell River fire occurred within a context of declining October {\textendash} April rainfall in western Tasmania over the last two decades, in comparison to the average rainfall for the period since 1900 (Fig. 1, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2018)). It was one of several large fires that competed for fire management resources over an extended period during the 2018-2019 Tasmanian fire season. The fire impacted natural values including those of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and risked spreading into parts of the iconic Mt Field National Park, as well as threatening a number of communities in the Derwent Valley, particularly Maydena. The Gell River fire also threatened major electrical transmission infrastructure connecting the large Gordon-Pedder power generation facility in the west of Tasmania to population centres in the east, and burnt approximately 500 ha of a 5,000 ha pine plantation. On 4 January, thick smoke from the fire crossed over the Greater Hobart area, sparking concern and raising awareness within the wider community about the fire activity (Fig. 2).

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, Fire weather, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Stuart Matthews and Chris Collins and Saskia Grootemaat and Jennifer J Hollis and Alexander Holmes and Belinda Kenny and John Runcie and Samuel Sauvage} } @article {bnh-6332, title = {Firefighter tenability and its influence on wildfire suppression}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {106}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, pages = {38-51}, abstract = {

This paper provides analysis of international fire service siege wildfire suppression thresholds and reports on the effect of forest fuel structure, fire weather condition and terrain on the suitability of suppression strategies. Further, this study applies a fire engineering approach whereby siege wildfire behaviour is deterministically assessed against firefighter tenability thresholds. This research is significant as it is the first study to consider human tenability as a factor in determining appropriateness of wildfire suppression strategies and tactics. The results clearly demonstrate offensive siege wildfire suppression involving direct head fire attacks by personnel and appliances exposes firefighters to untenable conditions well in advance of the head fire edge. Accordingly fire services may need to consider earlier instigation of defensive strategies and increased reliance on aerial wildfire suppression.

}, keywords = {fire engineering, Fire weather, fuel, suppression thresholds, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2019.03.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0379711218303515}, author = {Greg Penney and Daryoush Habibi and Marcus Cattani} } @conference {bnh-6401, title = {Fit for Duty pilot: ensuring the safety of CFA members and increasing access to health services}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The physically and psychologically demanding nature of the tasks performed by operational firefighters in fire and rescue agencies across Australia place greater risks to health of personnel than in usual circumstances. Evidence demonstrates that individuals with underlying health issues are at greater risk of experiencing a cardiovascular event (heart attack, cardiac arrest, stroke etc.) or physical injury when performing activities of moderate to vigorous intensity. A recent Beyond Blue and Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC survey of emergency services members highlighted a greater number of mental health issues than the average for other areas of employment. Therefore, ensuring that all employees and volunteers are physically and psychologically capable of performing their roles in a safe manner is imperative.

Guaranteeing that individuals have support and access to services that could act to identify early signs and symptoms is critical to this process. The Fit for Duty Program acknowledges that it is not known whether CFA volunteer firefighters are safe to carry out their operational roles from a holistic health perspective and as a result, intervention is required. In the pilot phase of the Fit for Duty program, several approaches were trialled for medical assessments. CFA have partnered with Deakin University to develop task-based physical assessment activities that represent the wider range of tasks required for wildfire firefighting. These activities were reviewed by volunteer members who set the benchmarks for the assessment. It is envisaged that the physical assessment component will be broadened to include other higher risk areas of structural firefighting and technical response. An awareness, education and support approach was adopted for the psychological component which incorporates new and existing CFA Wellbeing education and support programs.

}, keywords = {firefighters, Health, mental health, personnel, volunteers}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Georgia Thacker and Rohan Luke and Emma Court} } @article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @conference {bnh-6506, title = {Flood vulnerability functions: detailed vs generalised approach }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flood vulnerability functions for buildings (often called stage-damage functions) relate flood damage to the depth of inundation in the building. These functions are generally used in assessing flood risk and in evaluating cost-effective mitigation strategies for flood risk management. Flood vulnerability models are usually developed for a certain location by following empirical, analytical or heuristic procedures. They can be developed for a representative building type (detailed approach) or representing a mix of building types (generalised approach).

Geoscience Australia (GA) has developed a suite of flood vulnerability functions for a range of building types (detailed approach) that covers residential, commercial, industrial and community building land use types. These functions are best used in detailed micro level studies and are applicable to the highest resolution of building exposure information with flood vulnerability directly attributed to individual buildings.

This paper describes research with the National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG), the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR), state and local governments and industry to translate detailed vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers undertaking studies under the floodplainspecific management process as outlined in the AIDR Handbook, Managing the Floodplain: A Guide to Best Practice in Flood Risk Management.

This research derives generalised vulnerability functions for a mix of building and land use types. The generalised curves can be utilised at meso or macro level study and are intended to be applied at a resolution of built environment information readily available to floodplain managers.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {emergency management., Floods, land use, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6661, title = {Foresight for risk {\textendash} using scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Disaster impacts around the world are increasing with 2011 and 2017 the largest on record in terms of total losses from disasters in recorded history (USD 444billion and USD 341billion, respectively). The reasons for the increase in losses are multiple. Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of several natural hazard types, and as the world{\textquoteright}s population and economy grow, and humans increasingly develop in areas exposed to natural hazard (e.g. along rivers, and coastal areas), the values exposed are also rapidly increasing. These multiple factors contribute to the complex nature of disaster risk, which is considered to be the combination of natural hazard intensity and extent, exposure (assets, people, other values), and vulnerabilities of the exposed values to the characteristics of the hazards. This can be considered the risk triangle {\textendash} hazard, exposure and vulnerability {\textendash} and each of these factors change into the future impacted by a range of drivers; population and economic change, technology, urbanisation rates, political actions etc.

To reduce the impacts of disasters, risk management and reduction activities are designed and implemented, and are typically underpinned by risk assessments. Risk assessments use qualitative and/or quantitative approaches to attempt to characterise the likelihood and impact of disaster types for a region or organisation. Currently, risk assessments do not capture future changes across all dimensions of risk in a manner that provides insight into the strategic threats and opportunities of emergent disaster risks. Therefore, there is a need for approaches to consider realistic degrees of complexity within the disaster risk system and account for the uncertainty in emergent risk. By capturing this within disaster risk assessments, treatment options can be developed and tested that strategically manage these risks over time.

This research has developed these approaches and provides three key contributions through the use of foresight, primarily scenarios within disaster risk assessment processes, to support effective policy and investment decision making to reduce future impacts. The thesis is organised around three publications, all contributing to the development of a generic framework which integrates foresight into disaster risk management and specific approaches to develop and use scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk. The first paper (Chapter 2) proposes and demonstrates this generic framework for the incorporation of the principles of foresight into risk assessment and management processes. The second paper (Chapter 3) focuses on the design of scenarios to support policy making for disaster risk reduction through several improvements to the methodological approach for constructing relevant and challenging scenarios using an {\textquotedblleft}outcomes of interest{\textquotedblright} framing. The third paper (Chapter 4) outlines and applies an approach for the use of exploratory scenarios within quantitative disaster risk assessment through the development of alternative pathways of disaster risk using scenarios and integrated risk models.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, modelling, Risk assessment, Scenarios}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/122575}, author = {Graeme Riddell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6161, title = {Fragility and resilience of bridges subjected to extreme wave-induced forces}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges are susceptible to severe damage due to wave-induced forces during extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, storm surges and tsunamis. As a direct impact of climate change, the frequency and intensity of these events are also expected to increase in the future. The damages to bridges lead to substantial community impact during emergency and post-disaster recovery activities. Hence, viable restoration strategies are needed to enhance the resilience of bridges under extreme wave hazards. The research on the quantification of vulnerability and resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is limited. In particular, vulnerability and resilience assessment tools for bridges under different hazard intensity levels are required to quantify the resilience. This research addresses these research needs by providing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for bridges subjected to extreme hydrodynamic forces.

A comprehensive literature review is first conducted on the four resilience assessment elements, namely external wave force characterization, structural response, vulnerability assessment and resilience quantification to identify the existing gaps in knowledge, particularly in vulnerability and assessment methods.
Unified resilience indices, based on the {\textquotedblleft}resilience triangle{\textquotedblright} concept, are proposed to take into account the effect of the consideration of resources (cost) and environmental impact and their relative importance to the decision makers in the resilience quantification. Such indices are important for stakeholders as they provide a linkage between the social (time), economic and environmental impacts in the assessment of restoration strategies.

An integrated vulnerability assessment framework for bridges with strong connectivity between super- and sub-structure is proposed. The framework includes both static and time-history analyses to examine the performance of bridges subjected to significant hydrodynamic forces. The uncertainties in force and structural parameters are taken into account and the probability of damage is estimated using six damage states that define the pre- and post-peak response of bridge. The pier drift is taken as the engineering demand parameter. The use of two-parameter intensity measures that can provide an accurate estimation of the response of bridge such as momentum flux (hu2) and moment of momentum flux (h2u2/2) is investigated.

To demonstrate the proposed framework, a numerical model is developed for a case study bridge located in a flood-prone region in Queensland, Australia. The accuracy of the piers model is validated using published works on small-scale pier specimens that have limited ductility. The effect of strengthening of bridge piers using fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) jackets is examined.

The overall fragility functions for all intensity measures (velocity, inundation depth, momentum flux and moment of momentum flux) are obtained for both initial and strengthened bridge. The reduction in scatter of fragility data is examined for the two-parameter intensity measures for all damage states. The viability of the use of FRP jackets for enhancing the resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is also evaluated. The application of unified resilience indices based on the damage probability data obtained from fragility analysis is discussed for different intensities of the hazard.

The main contribution provided by this research is the comprehensive vulnerability and resilience assessment methods for bridges under extreme wave hazards. Such methodologies can assist in the evaluation of the different pre-disaster strengthening and recovery schemes for bridges. Decision makers (e.g., road authorities) can use the outcome of this research to assess the different retrofitting options for bridges taking into consideration the time, cost and energy consumption associated with each option.

}, keywords = {bridges, Emergency management, engineering, Fragility, Natural disasters, resilience}, author = {Ismail Qeshta} } @article {bnh-6043, title = {Framework for seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings in Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {20}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {143-158}, abstract = {

The project {\textquoteleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquoteright} under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) aims to develop knowledge to facilitate evidence-based informed decision-making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting, revision of codified design requirements and insurance policy. Seismic vulnerability assessment is an essential component in the project. The objective of this paper is to present the framework for carrying out vulnerability assessment of limited-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Australia. This paper is organised into four parts: (i) overview of typical building construction in Australia and description of the three broad categories of vulnerable RC buildings identified by the authors; (ii) identification and overview of case study buildings for seismic vulnerability assessment; (iii) definition and description for each performance level and damage state, including recommended material strain limits and drift limits for RC buildings; and (iv) hazard-consistent ground motion inputs for dynamic analyses.

}, keywords = {RC buildings, regions of lower seismicity, Seismic vulnerability assessment, seismic vulnerability of RC buildings}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2019.1611034}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2019.1611034}, author = {Scott Menegon and Hing-Ho Tsang and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and John Wilson and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-6393, title = {Frequency of Dynamic Fire Behaviours in Australian Forest Environments}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Wildfires can result in significant social, environmental and economic losses. Fires in which dynamic fire behaviours (DFBs) occur contribute disproportionately to damage statistics. Little quantitative data on the frequency at which DFBs occur exists. To address this problem, we conducted a structured survey using staff from fire and land management agencies in Australia regarding their experiences with DFBs. Staff were asked which, if any, DFBs were observed within fires greater than 1000 ha from the period 2006{\textendash}2016 that they had experience with. They were also asked about the nature of evidence to support these observations. One hundred thirteen fires were identified. Eighty of them had between one and seven DFBs with 73\% (58 fires) having multiple types of DFBs. Most DFBs could commonly be identified through direct data, suggesting an empirical analysis of these phenomena should be possible. Spotting, crown fires and pyro-convective events were the most common DFBs (66\%); when combined with eruptive fires and conflagrations, these DFBs comprise 89\% of all cases with DFBs. Further research should be focused on these DFBs due to their high frequencies and the fact that quantitative data are likely to be available.

}, keywords = {anecdotal data, direct data, dynamic fire behaviours, indirect data, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3010001}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/1/1}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5697, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {487}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2018-2019 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}. The project aims to provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the previous Annual Report in 2017-2018. The report focuses on the research outputs informing the development of the Prescribed Fire Atlas. The project has now delivered a rich, layered dataset capable of addressing nuanced questions about the quantitative risk reduction available through prescribed burning for multiple management values in varying landscapes. The project is now entering its final phase as we complete climate change and cost-effectiveness analyses and launch the Prescribed Burning Atlas in 2019/20. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide geographically based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at the heart of the project. Active involvement of end users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end users and the communities they serve.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, ecosystems, fire management, Prescribed burning}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-6527, title = {Fuels3D: barking up the wrong tree and beyond}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Improvement of the understanding of how fuel characteristics correlate with fire behaviour and severity is critical to the ongoing handling of risk and recovery in fire-prone environments. Current standards and protocols for describing fuel hazard (for example, {\textquoteleft}Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) and post-burn severity (for example, {\textquoteleft}Fire Severity Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) were written for collection of information in the field. The data collected are largely subjective descriptions of the landscape. The ability of information from these assessment techniques to be adapted to modern risk assessment tools such as fire behavior models, or for the calibration and validation of datasets, is limited. Quantitative data-rich methods of measuring and assessing fuel load and structure are the missing link between the knowledge of land management personnel in the field, and the model drivers and decision makers at organizational level.

Handheld devices with high quality sensors, in the form of offthe-shelf cameras, are increasingly ubiquitous, as is the availability of 3D point cloud data collected from active sensing instruments on terrestrial and aerial platforms. Rapid and comprehensive capture of information by these devices, coupled with the use of computer vision techniques, allows for the 3D description of the surrounding environment to be exploited to provide robust measurement of metrics that can be built into existing fuel hazard assessment frameworks. Providing key metrics as data products rather than a single product enables flexibility across jurisdictions and ecosystem types, and capacity to adapt as end-user requirements change.

The Fuels3D project has created a suite of tools and methods for image capture in the field during fuel hazard assessments. 3D point clouds are generated using computer vision and photogrammetry techniques. From these 3D point clouds, scale is added, and decision rules are programmed to calculate quantifiable surface / near-surface metrics that replicate those
used in current fuel hazard visual assessment guides. Case studies are highlighted here.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {data collection, Fire behaviour, fuel hazard, risk management, technology}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-6000, title = {Globe-LFMC, a global plant water status database for vegetation ecophysiology and wildfire applications}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. the primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health.

}, keywords = {database, Emergency management, land management, Natural disasters, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0164-9}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0164-9.epdf?author_access_token=HISJcfE-VovHPab3al2NwNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OARKV_7w7xO9p9PGwHd2zKbrs5f-VkYE5AC2lYTydBxaTKy0JaWSgXKUWz0U-fruuzViNrn1JJFl8mARAjGudmQfIcQsd98fM0zv-fk4bXxA\%3D\%3D}, author = {Marta Yebra and Gianluca Scortechini and Abdulbaset Badi and Maria Eugenia Beget and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock and Emilio Chuvieco and F. Mark Danson and Philip Dennison and Victor Resco de Dios and Carlos M. Di Bella and Greg Forsyth and Philip Frost and Mariano Garcia and Abdelaziz Hamdi and Binbin He and Matt Jolly and Tineke Kraaij and Pillar Martin and Florent Mouillot and Glenn J Newnham and Rachael Nolan and Grazia Pellizzaro and Yi Qi and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Dar Roberts and Momadou Sow and Susan Ustin} } @article {bnh-5422, title = {Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {457}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing amount of public attention focused on the contributions that Aboriginal people, and their knowledge and practices, make to resilience and sustainability agendas in Australia. Given the emerging commitment of natural hazards agencies in southern Australia to engagement and collaboration with Aboriginal people, the increasing level of legal recognition accorded to Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} land rights, and Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} own investment and interest in engaging in forms of natural hazard management, it is important that researchers support to this work, to understand and document how beneficial and respectful collaborations can be fostered.

The first year of the Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities (HCIC) project has focused around completing publications, initial fieldwork and the development of research priorities, and maintaining strong end user engagement. Key activities from this first year include:

}, keywords = {indigenous communities, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5437, title = {Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {225}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {45-64}, abstract = {

Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth{\textquoteright}s physical and social systems. Accurate and up to date information on areas affected by fire is critical to better understand drivers of fire activity, as well as its relevance for\ biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, and to aid fire management. Mapping burned areas was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch of the first Earth\ observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became a more practical alternative to detect burned areas, as they provide timely regional and global coverage of fire occurrence. This review paper explores the physical basis to detect burned area from satellite observations, describes the historical trends of using\ satellite sensors\ to monitor burned areas, summarizes the most recent approaches to map burned areas and evaluates the existing burned area products (both at global and regional scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities to further improve burned area detection from Earth observation satellites.

}, keywords = {Burned area, Climate change, Fire, fire impacts, Lidar, Radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300689}, author = {Emilio Chuvieco and Florent Mouillot and Guido van der Werf and Jes{\'u}s San Miguel and Mihai Tanasse and Nikos Koutsias and Mariano Garcia and Marta Yebra and Marc Padilla and Ioannis Gitas and Angelika Heil and Todd Hawbaker and Louis Giglio} } @conference {bnh-6388, title = {How Safe is Safe Enough? Melbourne Case Study}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

Residual risk exists in our buildings even if they were designed in conformance with modern codes of practice. The risk of being killed by earthquakes in Melbourne was discussed in the AEES 2018 Conference (Tsang et al. 2018a). This follow-up paper attempts to address a fundamental question in seismic design: {\textquotedblleft}How Safe is Safe Enough?{\textquotedblright} Various approaches have been implemented or proposed in the last decade for setting risk-targeted performance requirements for seismic design. A target collapse risk limit for a single building may be considered very low by some; however, the aggregated risk for society could become significant, especially for a metropolitan city like Melbourne. This paper introduces an approach proposed by the authors (refer Tsang et al. 2019for full details and discussion)for evaluating the adequacy of existing code level for collapse prevention and life safety by comparing societal risk functions based on regional earthquake loss modelling with a proposed regulatory requirement that aims to limit the earthquake mortality rate to {\textquotedblleft}as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP){\textquotedblright}. The proposed approach is then applied to Melbourne in a case study. The results show that the earthquake fatality risk for society appears to be unacceptable.

}, keywords = {building, Collapse, earthquake, Earthquake fatality, F-N function, Societal risk}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/66-Hing-Ho-Tsang.pdf}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and James Daniell and Friedemann Wenzel and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5432, title = {Impact-Based Forecasting for the Coastal Zone: East Coast Lows- Annual Report 2017/2018}, number = {463}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, pages = {1-28}, type = {Report}, keywords = {Built Environment, Forecasting, Severe Weather}, issn = {463}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and Serena Schroeter and Martin Wehner and Jane Sexton and Beth Ebert and Mark Dunford and Jeffrey Kepert and Shoni Maguire and Russell Hay and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5744, title = {Improving flood forecast using remote sensing data - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {497}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queenslad, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totaling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018). The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems. Further improvements to current flood forecasting systems are likely to reduce the personal and economic damage caused by floods.

}, keywords = {Flood, flood forecast, improving forecast, remote sensing data}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @conference {bnh-6399, title = {Improving flood forecasting skill using remotely sensed data}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper presents research undertaken to develop and implement a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model which utilises remotely sensed data to improve flood forecasting skill in rural catchments subject to fluvial flooding. The discussion of literature reviews and subsequent knowledge gaps aids in the identification of key obstacles towards implementation. Collected data and modelling algorithms developed as part of the project are described before an overview of the progress towards implementation is given. To maximise the potential utilisation of this research end-users have been involved in providing data, setting up case studies, and defining research priorities and methods.

}, keywords = {catchments, Flood, Forecasting, hydraulic, hydrological, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ashley Wright and Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-6276, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - annual report 2018-19}, number = {524}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will provide practical structural retrofits that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses to wind loads. The major activity carried out in 2018-19 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been progressing the VAWS software package using wind loading and structural response and other test data:

This project has also provided advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) and commenced in late 2018. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 2000 houses have been retrofitted.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, Housing, severe wind, storms, structural design}, issn = {524}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5434, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events in Australia Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {465}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will propose practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses that are impacted by severe windstorms. The project has analysed existing structural retrofitting details available for some forms of legacy housing and has found that uptake is limited, even when these houses require major repairs following severe storm events. The work carried out in 2017-18 has focussed on developing cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms. The major activity has been progressing the VAWS software package by Geoscience Australia (GA) using wind loading and structural response data and other test data obtained by the CTS-JCU:

{\textbullet} Residential structures (i.e. Houses) have been categorized into types based on building features that influence windstorm vulnerability using CTS and GA housing survey data. Two house types were selected and incorporated in the VAWS package. The structural response (i.e. damage progression) with increasing wind speed has been modelled and validated. Testing carried out as part of BNHCRC supported thesis projects have provided additional data.

{\textbullet} Retrofit options and cost-benefit modules will be added to the VAWS model by GA and made available for trialling by end users and stakeholders (i.e. homeowners, builders, regulators, insurers). End-users and stakeholders will be asked to evaluate VAWS and suggest amendments and provide feedback on practicality and aesthetics of potential upgrading methods for these house types. Cost effective guides will be developed for vulnerable house types.

{\textbullet} Case studies will be used to evaluate effectiveness of proposed retrofit solutions for risk reduction. Economic assessment using the same case studies will be used to promote (via the stakeholders and end users) uptake of practical retrofit options.

}, keywords = {housing structure, resilience, severe wind}, author = {David Henderson and John Ginger and Daniel Smith and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @conference {bnh-6292, title = {Incorporating firebrands and spot fires into vorticity-driven wildfire behaviour models}, booktitle = {23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Complex modes of fire behaviour resulting from local coupling between the fire and the atmosphere are a significant challenge for rapid operational wildfire spread simulations. While threedimensional fully coupled fire-atmosphere models are able to account for many types of fire behaviour, their computational demands are prohibitive in an operational context. Two-dimensional fire spread models have much lower computational overhead, but are generally not able to account for complex local coupling effects and cannot provide a three-dimensional flow structure suitable for modelling the transport of firebrands. In this paper we investigate extending two-dimensional fire spread simulations to model local coupling effects resulting from wind flow over a ridge that can result in a number of non-intuitive modes of fire behaviour. These include fire propagation opposite to the direction of the prevailing wind on the lee slope of ridges caused by re-circulation on the lee slope, called vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS). Furthermore we develop extensions of these two-dimensional models to incorporate three-dimensional firebrand transport and show that enhanced downwind spot fire formation can result under certain VLS conditions.

The spread of fires under VLS conditions is driven by vortices in the ground plane. A model for the production and effects of these vortices was incorporated into computational simulations using a vector potential formu-lation in similar manner to a scalar {\textquoteleft}pyrogenic potential{\textquoteright} model, detailed in earlier studies. Firebrands were incorporated using a Lagrangian scheme to model transport through the atmosphere and a sub-scale model for spot fire creation and growth. The firebrand transport took factors such as drag, gravity and buoyancy into account. As effect of plume buoyancy on firebrands under real-world conditions for this scenario is currently unknown, the plume buoyancy was parameterised using a exponential decay model. The sensitivity of the decay parameter in this model was then examined in relation to the resulting spot fire distribution and area burnt. All simulations were carried out using Spark, a wildfire prediction framework.

The coupled VLS and firebrand transport simulations indicated that a higher value of decay parameter, rep-resenting a higher cooling rate of the plume, acted to enhance the lateral spread as firebrands were lofted for shorter times and were caught in the vortices at the edge of the lateral spread region. In contrast, a lower value of decay parameter, representing a lower cooling of the plume, resulted in widespread downwind spot fires and larger burnt areas. This appeared to be due to longer lofting times resulting in firebrands being transported further downwind and away from the vortices within the lateral spread region. The model appears, at least qualitatively, to match observed lateral spread and {\textquoteright}deep flaming{\textquoteright} fire behaviour although many of the parame-ters in the model require further research and experimental calibration. Further development of the model may allow these complex modes

}, keywords = {dynamic fire propagation, embers, Firebrands, spotting, wildfire simulation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2019.H7.hilton2}, url = {https://mssanz.org.au/modsim2019/H7/hilton2.pdf}, author = {James Hilton and Garg, N and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-5542, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {18 }, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49\% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50\% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.\ 

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood fatalities, risk management, road safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, author = {Andrew Gissing and S. Opper and Matalena Tofa and Coates, Lucinda and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-6055, title = { Innovative Upscaling of Architectural Elements for Strengthening Building Structures}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {2636}, abstract = {

For conservation of heritages or life prolongation of aged buildings that contributes to environmental sustainability, there is a global need of structural strengthening or upgrading so as to restore their original functions or fulfil more stringent performance requirements stipulated in modern design codes of practice. However, the actual implementation is usually met with resistance from the property owner; hence, it is desirable to adopt an effective, economical and less invasive technique. In order to provide a further incentive, this article explores an innovative idea of upscaling decorative architectural elements, such as brackets, knee braces and corbels, in order that they also possess adequate strength capacity to resist extreme loadings such as earthquake actions. The required dimensions of architectural brackets for seismic retrofitting of concrete beam-column joints are calculated for different levels of seismicity through a parametric study. It is demonstrated that the proposed design can enhance both the aesthetics and structural performance of a building. This exemplifies how art can be integrated into engineering design for solving real-world problems.\ 

}, keywords = {building structure; strengthening; seismic retrofitting; aesthetic; heritage; conservation; architectural element; reinforced concrete; connection; structural art}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092636}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/9/2636}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang} } @article {bnh-6236, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {522}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the carried-out activities, achieved milestones, and submitted deliverables for the second year of operation of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation project {\textendash} 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. It contrasts achieved and planned outcomes and explains the necessary adjustments carried out to date. It starts by offering a background to the project, followed by considerations to the research approach being undertaken and then an explanation of the project implementation in greater detail and its utilisation outputs. This Year 2 {\textendash} 2018-2019 report will be followed by one final annual report to be submitted in mid-2020. In parallel to annual reports, this research project generates quarterly reports that further detail its operation every three months, as well as yearly self-assessment matrices. On the 30th of June 2020, a final report summarising key research project outcomes will also be submitted.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future, integrating, mitigation, Planning, urban}, issn = {522}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-6577, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia}, number = {536}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia. The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mechanisms, risk reduction}, issn = {536}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @conference {bnh-6524, title = {Intelligent warnings: a twenty-first century approach to encouraging protective action in emergencies}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Victorian approach to the delivery of public information and warnings is robust and leads the country in many respects. Despite this, when at-risk individuals do receive warnings, existing research clearly highlights they are unlikely to immediately act, and instead, will seek out further information and take time to process the information to determine whether any action is required. This verification process may include talking with family, friends, neighbours or colleagues, resulting in a delay before protective action is taken. To counteract this problem and provide communities with as much time as possible to take action, we need to minimise the likelihood of delays infiltrating our decision-making and warnings dissemination process. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation can help us to achieve this.

To investigate this further, a desktop review of existing literature was undertaken, supported by informal discussions and semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of academics, emergency managers and other experts across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the United States. The discussions and interviews highlighted exciting opportunities to enhance our current approach through the use of AI and automation, which could be particularly helpful in enhancing the effectiveness of warnings for rapid impact emergencies, such as flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. During these types of emergencies, where community consequences are often experienced very rapidly after initial onset of the event, AI and automation can support the tailoring of language and content in warning products according to affected communities and likely consequences, minimise warning issuance delay and maximise the effectiveness of decision-making.

The investigation found these technologies are not a replacement for human decision making, however, if leveraged effectively they will enable us to better understand risk in realtime and reduce the considerable time taken to manually process intelligence and apply our pre-determined triggers and business rules. For the Victorian emergency management sector, these results suggest there is a need to prioritise investment in innovative new approaches to support the dissemination of potentially life-saving public information and warnings, whilst also supporting researchers to further understand human behaviour and decision-making upon receipt of a warning. In summary, this investigation has identified opportunities to better support communities to take protective action in a timely manner, to ensure we achieve our shared vision of safer and more resilient communities.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, protective action, risk management, technology, warning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Riley, Jacob} } @article {bnh-5506, title = {Internal pressures in a full-scale test enclosure with windward wall openings}, journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics }, volume = {189}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

A single opening on the windward wall which generates large\ internal pressures\ in a building often defines the critical\ wind loadingstructural design\ criterion. This paper presents internal pressure fluctuations in a sealed\ Full-Scale Test\ Enclosure (FSTE) for a range of single windward wall opening configurations induced by atmospheric wind flow, to assess the influence\ opening size\ (i.e. S*\ =\ (A3/2/V)(as/U{\textasciimacron}h)2) has on the internal pressure. Damped\ Helmholtz\ resonance was observed for S* \> 0.88, with peak and standard deviation internal pressures being about 5\% higher than the\ external pressures\ when S* \> 1.9. Internal pressure fluctuations are attenuated when S* \< 0.75. The inertial coefficient\ CI\ is between 1.3 and 1.5 and the\ loss coefficientCL\ increases with increasing\ opening area(0.88\ \<\ S*\ \<\ 5.8) between 10 and 20. These parameters have a significant influence on the internal pressure fluctuations, and this controlled\ full-scale\ study carried out for the first time provides data for validating analytical and\ model-scale\ studies on internal pressure fluctuations in buildings.

}, keywords = {Full-scale, Helmholtz resonance, Inertial coefficient, Internal pressure, Loss coefficient, Low-rise buildings, Single opening}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.03.024}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610518310304}, author = {Humphreys, M and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6164, title = {Investigation of spotting and intrinsic fire dynamics using a coupled atmosphere-fire modelling framework}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, school = {University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Large plume-driven wild res are among the most destructive and unpredictable of all natural hazards. A prerequisite for the development of the deep convection characteristic of these res is the existence of a large area of active aming, also known as deep aming. There are a number of processes associated with the development of deep aming; many involve some form of dynamic re behaviour, in which dramatic changes in re behaviour can occur with little or no change in ambient conditions. Another important driver of deep aming is intense spotting and spot- re coalescence, which itself involves dynamic re behaviour. It is difficult to model dynamic re behaviour in a computationally efficient way; it cannot be modelled with existing operational re-spread models. This thesis is concerned with the modelling of dynamic re behaviour, and the modelling of ember transport in turbulent plumes. A coupled atmosphere framework is used to model junction res (the merging of two separate relines at an acute angle), and the fundamental processes causing the asociated dynamic behaviour are identi ed. The idea that reline curvature can act as a proxy for some of the processes underlying dynamic re behaviour is critically examined, and rejected. A recently-developed simple coupled model, the pyrogenic-potential model, is discussed. It is found to produce results comparable with that of a coupled atmosphere\ model in simple test cases involving the ignition of res along circular arcs. The\ pyrogenic-potential model can capture some forms of dynamic behaviour, and is\ efficient enough to be used operationally.\ To study ember transport in turbulent plumes, a large eddy model is used to simulate\ the plume from a static heat source, and the resulting wind eld is used to\ model the transport of embers under various assumptions. It is shown that the\ terminal-velocity assumption, in which embers are assumed to always move at their\ terminal velocity with respect to the wind eld, leads to an overestimate of emberlanding\ densities at medium to long ranges. This has important implications for\ the stochastic modelling of spot- re development.

}, keywords = {bushfire dynamics, bushfires, Fire, fire modelling, framework, spotting}, author = {Thomas, C. M.} } @conference {bnh-6404, title = {It{\textquoteright}s raining news: exploring the impact of mass-SMS on preparedness for a severe weather event }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Location-based telephone warning systems are a relatively new tool for emergency managers to distribute warnings and emergency information to targeted populations. Although some research has examined their impact on how they support action and decision making by community, there are gaps in the literature for many use cases. This paper presents research examining the impact of a large-scale use of a location-based telephone warning system on awareness of and preparedness for a severe weather event in the Australian state of Victoria.

}, keywords = {communication, community, location-based, Warnings}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Joan Young and Kirstin Couper and Benjamin Beccari} } @conference {bnh-6532, title = {JASMIN: a high-resolution soil moisture analysis system for fire prediction}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Soil moisture is found to be a key factor that influences fuel moisture content. Consequently, operational forest fire prediction systems typically include soil moisture as one of the inputs for fire behaviour calculations. The soil moisture input to these fire prediction models is usually provided in the form of moisture deficit. There is evidence that the current operational methods used in Australia for fire prediction perform poorly in estimating soil moisture status. A research project was initiated in partnership with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to develop an advanced, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. Consequently, a prototype, high-resolution, land surface modelling-based soil moisture analysis called JULES based Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) has been developed. JASMIN can provide hourly moisture estimates for four soil layers, at a spatial resolution of 5 km.

The present paper will discuss the evaluation of JASMIN carried out against observations from ground-based networks. Among the results, the mean Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation for surface soil moisture across three in-situ networks is found to be between 0.78 and 0.85. We also focus on the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. The downscaling research is motivated by the desirable impact a higher resolution soil moisture product can provide for fire prediction, considering the high spatial variability in soil moisture and fuel moisture. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regressionbased methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied in the present study are based on the information derived from characterizing a two-dimensional surface temperature/vegetation index scatterplot domain obtained from thermal and optical remote sensing observations. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation against ground-based soil moisture observations. Evaluation results indicate that the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretically based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {analysis system, fire prediction, Preparedness, risk management, Soil moisture}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @conference {bnh-6412, title = {Joining the dots: using social media to connect with more vulnerable Victorians during emergencies}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

An ongoing challenge for emergency, government, and community organisations is {\textquoteleft}how can social media (social media) be best used to connect with people who may be considered more vulnerable during an emergency event?{\textquoteright} This question has three key elements. First, when using the term vulnerable who might we be referring to? Second, how is social media being used by relevant organisations and vulnerable community members? Third, how might we better use social media to connect to the more vulnerable sections of the community? This paper reports on findings from recently completed research funded by Emergency Management Victoria. This research is unique in that it combines insights and perspectives from: interviews with emergency, government and community organisations; analysis of social media postings; and interviews and a survey of community members.

Our research noted that most organisations have developed a more nuanced perspective of the term vulnerable, one which takes account of contextual and temporal factors and recognises that all Victorians are periodically vulnerable. Interviews highlighted that organisations, community groups, and vulnerable sections of the community operate in a complex informational and social media landscape. Moreover, this landscape continues to develop with changing boundaries between actors, and organisations{\textquoteright} evolving roles. Analysis of social media highlighted that the messaging was generic, with little content aimed at vulnerable sections of the community. The research also investigated how vulnerable people used social media during emergencies. Findings included a growing expectation from community members on the use of social media by emergency and government organisations and that community members increasingly prefer to obtain information from community groups on social media.

The research provides a range of suggestions to improve effective use of social media to better meet the needs of vulnerable persons during emergencies. These included the use of communities of practice, education of social media users, development of practice guidelines, standard setting, and monitoring.

}, keywords = {communications, community, social media, Vulnerability, Warnings}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Peter Hayes and Stan Karanasios and Vanessa Cooper and Marta Poblet} } @article {bnh-5056, title = {Limitations of high resolution satellite stereo imagery for estimating canopy height in Australian tropical savannas}, journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation}, volume = {75}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, pages = {12}, chapter = {83}, abstract = {

Obtaining reliable measures of tree canopy height across large areas is a central element of forest inventory and carbon accounting. Recent years have seen an increased emphasis on the use of active sensors like Radar and airborne LiDAR (light detection and scanning) systems to estimate various 3D characteristics of canopy and crown structure that can be used as predictors of biomass. However, airborne LiDAR data are expensive to acquire, and not often readily available across large remote landscapes. In this study, we evaluated the potential of stereo imagery from commercially available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellites as an alternative for estimating canopy height variables in Australian tropical savannas, using a semi-global dense matching (SGM) image-based technique. We assessed and compared the completeness and vertical accuracy of extracted canopy height models (CHMs) from GeoEye 1 and WorldView 1 VHR satellite stereo pairs and summarised the factors influencing image matching effectiveness and quality.

Our results showed that stereo dense matching using the SGM technique severely underestimates tree presence and canopy height. The highest tree detection rates were achieved by using the near-infrared (NIR) band of GE1 (8{\textendash}9\%). WV1-GE1 cross-satellite (mixed) models did not improve the quality of extracted canopy heights. We consider these poor detection rates and height retrievals to result from: i) the clumping crown structure of the dominant Eucalyptus spp.; ii) their vertically oriented leaves (affecting the bidirectional reflectance distribution function); iii) image band radiometry and iv) wind induced crown movement affecting stereo-pair point matching. Our detailed analyses suggest that current commercially available VHR satellite data (0.5 m resolution) are not well suited to estimating canopy height variables, and therefore above ground biomass (AGB), in Eucalyptus dominated north Australian tropical savanna woodlands.

}, keywords = {canopy height, Satellite, Savanna, Stereo}, doi = {10.1016/j.jag.2018.10.021}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243418308390}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs and Stefan Maier and Shaun R Levick and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-5569, title = {Long-term solutions to improve emergency management services in remote communities in northern Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Despite frequent exposure to bushfires, cyclones and floods, remote Indigenous communities across northern Australia typically have little involvement in managing, mitigating or planning for such events. This scenario planning project explored how people in remote communities, through Indigenous ranger groups, can contribute effectively to the mitigation and delivery of emergency services. This research revealed the importance of developing effective partnerships between emergency management agencies and members of remote communities to integrate and assess the resources and services needed for responsible agencies in the Northern Territory. Using three remote communities as case studies, the potential engagement opportunities with ranger groups was explored to identify solutions to deliver efficient, cost-effective and culturally appropriate emergency services. A collaborative policy framework involving emergency services organisations and Indigenous communities is proposed to mitigate and manage incidents while meeting Indigenous cultural protocols. This recognises and takes advantage of community networks and knowledge of local socio-cultural and natural systems. This research offers practical insights into the delivery of cost-effective and improved emergency services to empower north Australian remote communities.

}, keywords = {communities, Emergence Management, northern Australia, readiness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-long-term-solutions-to-improve-emergency-management-services-in-remote-communities-in-northern-australia/}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-5493, title = {Managing animals in disasters (MAiD) - improving preparedness, response and resilience through individual and organisational collaboration: Final Report 2017}, number = {476}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Managing Animals in Disasters (MAiD) project was a three-year research project focusing on the challenges for end users, stakeholders, and community members in preparing for, planning for, and responding to the needs of animals in emergencies. The aim of the project was to identify and build best practice approaches to animal emergency management (AEM) to enable engagement with animal owners and other stakeholders in disasters and emergencies.

}, keywords = {animals, Disaster management, Fire, Natural hazards}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-6036, title = {Managing cognitive biases during disaster response: the development of an aide memoire}, journal = {Cognition, Technology \& Work}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {1-13}, abstract = {

Disasters are highly complex with often extreme consequences and are often exacerbated by decision errors. Human behaviour in this domain offers a fertile ground for studying decision-making and identifying opportunities for improvement. This research sought to improve the quality of decision-making by developing an aide memoire for managing cognitive biases in emergency management. Based on the appropriate literature, 58 of Australia{\textquoteright}s leading marine spill disaster response experts identified and ranked the most important cognitive biases in a group setting. The results were translated into language relevant to emergency management practitioners and reframed into a series of questions. The identification of nine cognitive biases in the aide memoire can first be used to assess the available information, intelligence and decisions, and then used to determine the meaning of the information, intelligence and decisions. The paper discusses the applicability of the aide memoire to decision errors identified in recent man-made and natural disasters. Finally, the article addresses a criticism that research findings are often not useful to industry by suggesting how the aide memoire can be used in practice.

}, keywords = {Cognitive bias, Decision aid, decision-making, disasters, Emergency management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5$\#$citeas}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-6108, title = {Mapping approaches to community engagement for preparedness in Australia - final report}, number = {515}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Community preparation in disaster response has been empirically established as a key factor in the protection of life during a disaster. Natural disasters, especially bushfires, have provided evidence showing that there is a pervasive lack of preparation (King \& Goudie 2006; Martins, Nigg, Louis-Charles \& Kendra, 2019; McLennan 2014; McLennan et al. 2011; Pinock, 2007; Teague, McLeod \& Pascoe 2010) even in communities with previous disaster experience (Mackie, McLennan \& Wright 2013; McLennan, Paton \& Wright 2015). Agencies and researchers have also reported the struggle to get people motivated to prepare (McLennan, Elliott \& Omodei 2012), and to understand what needs to be done as part of that preparation. A number of community engagement programs have been successful and have been estimated to save lives and reduce the cost of property damage and destruction (Gilbert, 2007).\  At a higher level, community engagement is also considered central to development of community resilience in disaster (Council of Australian Governments 2011).

Consultation with agencies regarding this BNHCRC project application revealed gaps in emergency agency community engagement knowledge and practice. Specifically:

Therefore, these needs frame both the priority and urgency of this project and the potential to contribute to agency and local council action. Agencies have also articulated community engagement as a priority and, in many states in Australia, are making efforts to systemise community engagement and evaluation of its effect (such as Elsworth et al. 2010; Emergency Management Victoria 2017; Inspector-General of Emergency Management 2014). This project addresses this need by developing an empirical framework - built from a systematic literature review of effective preparedness actions, a systematic literature review of community engagement for preparedness, and a synthesis of agency best practices - that offers a systematic and evidence-based standard for agency implementation for community disaster preparation. The framework, and the associated index of core competencies and relationship indices, could also contribute to informing a more sustainable community engagement policy.

This project will consider the more immediate need for community engagement by emergency end-user/agencies for preparedness, which occurs annually, rather than for resilience, which is longer term and involves cross-government involvement including from outside the emergency management sphere.

}, keywords = {Australia, community engagement, community preparedness, Multi-hazard}, issn = {515}, author = {Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-5430, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {462}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an\ enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\ their behaviour and resultant severity driven\ by\ complicated interactions\ among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ A good understanding of fire risk across the landscape is critical in preparing\ and responding to bushfire events and managing fire regimes, and remote\ sensing data will enhance this understanding. However, the vast array of spatial\ data sources available is not being used ve\ ry effectively in fire management.\ This project uses remote sensing observations\ to\ produce spatial information on\ fire hazard and impacts needed by planners, land managers and emergency\ services\ to effectively manage fire at landscape scales. The group works\ closely with ACT Parks and Conservation Service and agencies beyond the\ ACT to better understand their procedures and information needs, comparing\ these with the spatial data and mapping methods that are readily available,\ and developing the next generation of mapping technologies to help them\ prepare and respond to bushfires.
}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire impacts, hazards, mapping fire}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5928, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts annual report 2018-2019}, number = {511}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is the output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC (BNHCRC), Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2018/2019.

During this financial year we have:

  1. Worked on a comprehensive characterization of fire risk conditions through the integration of fire weather, dead Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and total biomass into the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS);
  2. Worked on AFMS website version 3 that incorporated feedback on the trial utilisation of the data service;
  3. Evaluated the feasibility and benefits of the operational use of alternative satellite data in AFMS to ensure long-term data continuity;
  4. Coupled a process-based model that simulates litter fuel moisture and a distributed biophysical model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model) to predict dead fuel moisture content;
  5. Published six journal manuscripts, seventeen conference abstracts and one milestone reports with another one in preparation. We have also had eight appearances in the media;
  6. Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and
  7. Submitted an application for utilisation funds from the BNHCRC to develop a high-resolution prototype version of AFMS.

Over the next year (2019-2020), this research project will focus on finishing the analysis on the fire risk index as well as using remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves. In terms of utilization, we will liaise with Geoscience Australia (GA) on transitioning the AFMS as GA has agreed to be in charge of the long term operationalization and maintenance.

}, keywords = {bushfires, fire behavior, fire impacts, hazards, impacts, mapping}, issn = {511}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Li Zhao and Honghao Zeng} } @article {bnh-6222, title = {A Method for Validating the Structural Completeness of Understory Vegetation Models Captured with 3D Remote Sensing}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, abstract = {

Characteristics describing below canopy vegetation are important for a range of forest ecosystem applications including wildlife habitat, fuel hazard and fire behaviour modelling, understanding forest recovery after disturbance and competition dynamics. Such applications all rely on accurate measures of vegetation structure. Inherent in this is the assumption or ability to demonstrate measurement accuracy. 3D point clouds are being increasingly used to describe vegetated environments, however limited research has been conducted to validate the information content of terrestrial point clouds of understory vegetation. This paper describes the design and use of a field frame to co-register point intercept measurements with point cloud data to act as a validation source. Validation results show high correlation of point matching in forests with understory vegetation elements with large mass and/or surface area, typically consisting of broad leaves, twigs and bark 0.02 m diameter or greater in size (SfM, MCC 0.51{\textendash}0.66; TLS, MCC 0.37{\textendash}0.47). In contrast, complex environments with understory vegetation elements with low mass and low surface area showed lower correlations between validation measurements and point clouds (SfM, MCC 0.40 and 0.42; TLS, MCC 0.25 and 0.16). The results of this study demonstrate that the validation frame provides a suitable method for comparing the relative performance of different point cloud generation processes

}, keywords = {3D remote sensing, biomass, forest measurement, structure from motion, terrestrial laser scanning, validation, vegetation structure}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11182118}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/18/2118}, author = {Samuel Hillman and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Bryan Hally and Simon Jones and Daisy Saldias} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5777, title = {Methods for background temperature estimation in the context of active fire detection}, volume = {Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {RMIT University and the University of Twente}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire is one of the most important ecological drivers on the planet. Whilst its initial impacts upon the environment are seemingly destructive, fire also plays an important role in the functioning and regeneration of ecosystems, along with providing a catalyst for changes to ecosystem successional processes. With this in mind,\ finding methods to efficiently measure and monitor\ wildfire is of vital importance. Information about fire in the environment can assist\ in mitigation planning and asset management for fire authorities, assists in the minimisation\ of fire impacts on human lives and communities, and of course can help\ to address problems such as carbon accounting and ecosystem impacts of fire. This thesis addresses four research questions, the current accepted method of background temperature estimation imagery and presents a new method of temperature estimation.\ 

}, keywords = {estimation, temperature, Wildfire; Community safety; Risk perception; Mitigation; Decision making}, author = {Bryan Hally} } @conference {bnh-6027, title = {Mitigating earthquake risk in Australia}, booktitle = {2019 Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Annual NZSEE Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, abstract = {

Earthquake risk is not limited to tectonic plate boundary countries. While less frequent, significant earthquakes can occur in intraplate countries like Australia which can have severe consequences. For Australia this is particularly the case as earthquake hazard has not been recognised in the design of buildings and community infrastructure for most of the country{\textquoteright}s settled history. Significant risks exist where community assets are by their nature inherently vulnerable to strong ground shaking. This paper describes three initiatives that are assisting Australian emergency management, infrastructure managers and local government to prepare for and mitigate these risks.

The first of these highlights how the characteristics of geological hazards differ from severe meteorological hazards. The very non-linear nature of impact severity with longer average recurrence interval earthquakes is demonstrated and how this information is supporting emergency management planning including capacity sharing between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in the region is described. Secondly, the paper describes how this research is developing knowledge of the factors behind the vulnerability of critical infrastructure facilities and the options to mitigate these. The software tool System for Infrastructure Facility Resilience Analysis (SIFRA) is described which enables infrastructure facility components to be examined in the context of physical vulnerability, system criticality, repair cost and restoration time. Finally, a utilisation project of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC working with the local government of York Shire in Western Australia (WA) is described. The project is providing information on the effectiveness of targeted retrofit of the heritage town of York to rare earthquakes and how this action by property owners can be incentivised.

}, keywords = {earthquake, mitigation, Vulnerability}, url = {http://db.nzsee.org.nz/2019/Oral/8C.05\%20Edwards.pdf}, author = {Mark Edwards and Muhamman Rahman and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Neil Corby and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik} } @article {bnh-5804, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {507}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project titled {\textquotedblleft}Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves through the Improvements of Land Dryness Measures and Forecasts{\textquotedblright} examines the use of detailed land surface models,
satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project will address a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly
linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events.

Currently landscape dryness is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI; Keetch \& Byram 1968) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI; Mount 1972). An initial study performed as part of this project suggest that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation. The project has developed a stand-alone prototype land surface modelling system to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and at 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations show that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

The present report documents the activities undertaken in 2018-2019. A major focus for the year has been on the downscaling of soil moisture from the JASMIN system, enhancing the spatial resolution from 5 km to 1km. Applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. Another major outcome from the project during this year was the publication of a peerreviewed paper in the highly regarded Agriculture and Forest Meteorology journal.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fires, Floods, Forecasting, heatwaves, land dryness}, issn = {507}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Paul Fox-Hughes and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @article {bnh-6333, title = {Model for assessing the vulnerability of Australian housing to windstorms - VAWS}, number = {529}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Modelling the vulnerability of houses in windstorms is important for insurance pricing, policy-making, and emergency management. Models for Australian house types have been developed since the 1970s, and have ranged from empirical models to more advanced reliability based structural engineering models, which provide estimates of damage for a range of wind speeds of interest. This report describes the development of a software program: Vulnerability and Adaption to Wind Simulation (VAWS), which uses probability based reliability analysis and structural engineering for the loading and response coupled with an extensive test database and field damage assessments to calculate the damage experienced by selected Australian house types.\ \ 

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclone, Emergency management, engineering, severe wind, wind modelling}, issn = {529}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and John Ginger and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5619, title = {Modelling emissions from prescribed burning using FULLCAM}, number = {479}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is a software tool developed by the Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy as a standard method for carbon accounting. It is primarily used as a means to report national\ greenhouse gas dynamics from the land sector due to anthropogenic activities. This\ study assessed the accuracy and usefulness of FullCAM in determining the mass of carbon (C) emissions produced from prescribed burning. FullCAM proved to be a simple and reasonably reliable method for estimating C emissions from prescribed burning activities and for tracking recovery of C pools related to forest ecosystems. In addition, C emissions from different prescribed burning scenarios and from wildfire can be easily compared. The FullCAM model can be used by land managers as a means to manage an important aspect of risk associated with planned burning. If land managers are required to perform C accounting activities in the future, the adoption of FullCAM will enable them to be compatible with the national standard of carbon accounting.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emissions, FullCAM, modelling, Prescribed burning}, issn = {479}, author = {Senani Karunaratne and Malcolm Possell and David Pepper and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5300, title = {Modelling of radiant heat flux and rate of spread of wildfire within the urban environment}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, chapter = {4}, abstract = {

One approach to increase community resilience to wildfire impacts is the enhancement of residential construction standards in an effort to provide protective shelters for families within their own homes. Current wildfire models reviewed in this study assume fire growth is unrestricted by vegetation fuel bed geometry; the head fire has attained a quasi-steady rate of spread; and the shielding effects of urban development are ignored. As a result, radiant heat flux may be significantly overestimated for small vegetation fires in road reserves, urban parklands, and similar scenarios. This paper proposes two new models to address this issue, and utilises two case studies for comparison against existing approaches. The findings are significant as this is the first study to analyse these factors from a fire engineering perspective, and to demonstrate that the use of landscape scale or siege wildfire models may not be appropriate within the urban context. The development of enhanced wildfire models will have a significant impact on town planning and construction practices in areas prone to wildfires, as well as firefighting suppression efforts when these events occur.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2010004 }, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/1/4/htm}, author = {Greg Penney and Steven Richardson} } @article {bnh-6045, title = {Modelling of tree fires and fires transitioning from the forest floor to the canopy with a physics-based model}, journal = {Mathematics and Computers in Simulation}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Wildland fires can take different forms such as surface fire or an elevated crown fire or combination of both. Crown fires are normally originated from surface fires spreading either along the bark of the tree trunks or direct flame contact to low branches with leaves and needles. In the past, surface fire (grassfire) spread simulations were conducted using physics-based models with fidelity. Here, we firstly seek numerically converged results for the burning of a single tree. Previously, numerical convergence for such physics-based fire simulations has been elusive. Subsequently, the linear and Arrhenius thermal degradation sub-models are appraised. For both thermal degradation sub-models grid convergence of the mass-loss rate is achieved with a 50\ mm grid. The grid converged simulations also agree with experimental results of a single burning Douglas fir tree. A fire in a modelled tree plantation is then simulated using the linear thermal degradation sub-model. The aim of this part is twofold: one to demonstrate a good modelling practice; and secondly to assess the model capability to simulate transitioning from a forest floor fire to a crown fire leading to a quasi-steady rate of spread. The Kolmogorov{\textendash}Smirnov test is used to rigorously demonstrate that the simulations on different grid and domain sizes have converged {\textemdash}\ that is, the results have become independent of the numerical parameters imposed upon the simulation.

A physics-based model reproduces many observed features of surface fire to forest fire transition. The crown fire propagates with a quasi-steady rate-of-spread after an initial development period. Analysis of the volumetric heat release rate shows that a surface fire propagates under the crown fire and supplies energy to support the burning of the crown. Overall many features are qualitatively in agreement with other tree and crown fire studies.

}, keywords = {Crown fire, Fire transition, Physics-based modelling, Rate of spread, Tree fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2019.05.018}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378475419301995}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6113, title = {Modelling the impact of lifeline infrastructure failure during natural hazard events}, year = {2019}, school = {Macquarie University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis utilises mathematical graph theory tools alongside natural hazard modelling to analyse and quantify the extent of lifeline disruption during natural hazard events and the flow on effects of service failure. A future eruption of Mount Fuji in Japan is used as the major case study scenario to assess the usefulness of graph theory techniques in aiding disaster mitigation, emergency response and community recovery. In particular graph theory was used to assess the impacts of ash fall on the evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture with regards to a future 1707 Hoei type eruption. It was found that: Ash induced road closures have the potential to affect current evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture, particularly for those residents who are set to evacuate at or after the onset of a future eruption. Ash fall accumulation on roads, even after a few hours from the onset of an eruption, can inhibit road use, resulting in long detours or the inability for residents to be able to evacuate unassisted. After the cessation of an eruption, ash fall can impact the return of evacuees to their homes by either blocking roads or damaging buildings, affecting safety. Evacuees will have to wait for roads to be cleared of ash, and buildings to be assessed for damage, before they are able to return. In an eruption scenario where wind conditions are predominantly westerly the current plan for residents to evacuate to the north east of Yamanashi prefecture is not advisable. Assigned host locations in the northeast would be impacted by ash fall themselves; adding additional pressure on these communities and potentially resulting in further evacuations. This scenario provided the opportunity to test graph theory techniques in natural hazard risk assessment and to demonstrate how graph theory can assist post event recovery in a real world context. Methods developed in this study can be used to further explore impacts of ash fall, or other volcanic phenomena, in other prefectures around Mount Fuji or other volcanoes throughout Japan. Moreover, these methods can be used to address the exposure and risk to lifelines from other natural hazard events or even to compare between them. The results of this thesis show that graph theory techniques, alongside Geographic Information Systems tools and hazard modelling, with an understanding of the use and vulnerability of particular lifelines, can help to envisage potential problems that could result from lifeline failure and aid in the process of recovery. Not only is it important to make lifeline infrastructure more resilient to disruption from future natural hazard shocks, there is also a need to increase resilience by preparing communities to cope with service outages. For true shared responsibility to occur, local governments and communities need to be better informed and prepared so they can cope with the absence of lifelines during a disaster. Collaboration between all stakeholders is required to bridge information gaps and to create holistic disaster scenarios in order to provide more realistic and accurate assessments of future natural hazard impacts

}, keywords = {critical infrastructure, disaster relief, Emergency management, impacts, lifelines, Natural hazards, networks, volcanos}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1268491}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70865}, author = {Phillips, E} } @conference {bnh-6407, title = {Modelling the vulnerability of a high-set house roof structure to windstorms using VAWS }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Modelling the vulnerability of houses in windstorms is important for insurance pricing, policy-making, and emergency management. Vulnerability models for Australian house types have been developed since the 1970s and have ranged from empirical models to more advanced reliability based structural engineering models, which provide estimates of damage for a range of wind speeds of interest. This paper describes recent developments in the engineering based vulnerability modelling software: {\textquoteleft}Vulnerability and Adaption to Wind Simulation{\textquoteright} (VAWS), which uses probability based reliability analysis and structural engineering for the loading and response coupled with an extensive test database and field damage assessments to calculate the damage experienced by selected Australian house types. A case study is presented to demonstrate the program{\textquoteright}s ability to model progressive failures, internal pressurization and debris impact.

}, keywords = {debris, simulation, structures, VAWs, Vulnerability, wind}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and John Ginger and Daniel Smith and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @conference {bnh-6384, title = {Modelling the vulnerability of old URM buildings and the benefit of retrofit}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

The Shire of York is partnering with the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the University of Adelaide and Geoscience Australia in a collaborative project that will examine the opportunities for reducing the vulnerability of the township of York to a major earthquake. The project forms part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. The township of York has a number of valuable historical buildings that contribute greatly to the town{\textquoteright}s economic prosperity and, at the same time, are vulnerable to earthquakes.

One of the benefits of retrofitting an old building is the reduction in physical building repair required following a damaging earthquake. To evaluate this benefit it is necessary to know the vulnerability of the unmitigated building and how this changes following retrofit.

This paper describes the approach taken to quantitatively estimate the vulnerability of unmitigated and retrofitted pre-WW1 unreinforced masonry (URM)buildings typical of the buildings found in York. Challenges in estimating vulnerability are discussed. Vulnerability curves are presented for one of six generic building types subjected to a range of retrofit scenarios and the economic benefit of each retrofit scenario is presented and discussed.

}, keywords = {earthquake, retrofit, URM, Vulnerability}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/02-Mark-Edwards.pdf}, author = {Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik} } @article {bnh-5376, title = {Modelling wind direction distributions using a diagnostic model in the context of probabilistic fire spread prediction}, journal = {Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering: Thermal and Mass Transport}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

With emerging research into the dynamics of extreme fire behaviour, it is increasingly important for wind models used in operational fire prediction to accurately capture areas of complex flow across rugged terrain. Additionally, the emergence of ensemble and stochastic modelling frameworks has led to the discussion of uncertainty in fire prediction. To capture the uncertainty of modelled fire outputs, it is necessary to recast uncertain inputs in probabilistic terms.\ 

WindNinja is the diagnostic wind model currently applied within a number of operational fire prediction frameworks across the world. For computational efficiency, allowing for real-time or faster than real-time prediction, the physical equations governing wind flow across complex terrain are often simplified. The model has a number of well documented limitations, for instance, it is known to perform least well on leeward slopes. This study first aims to understand these limitations in a probabilistic context by comparing individual deterministic predictions to observed distributions of wind direction. Secondly, a novel application of the deterministic WindNinja model is presented and shown to enable prediction of wind direction distributions that capture some of the variability of complex wind flow.\ 

Recasting wind fields in terms of probability distributions enables better understanding of variability across the landscape, and provides the probabilistic information required to capture uncertainty through ensemble or stochastic fire modelling. The comparisons detailed in this study indicate the potential for WindNinja to predict multimodal wind direction distributions that represent complex wind behaviours, including recirculation regions on leeward slopes. However, the limitations of using deterministic models within probabilistic frameworks are also highlighted. To enhance fire prediction and better understand uncertainty, it is recommended that statistical approaches also be developed to complement existing physics-based deterministic wind models.

}, keywords = {complex terrain, deterministic, ensemble modelling, Probability distributions, uncertainty, von Mises, wind modelling, WindNinja}, doi = {10.3389/fmech.2019.00005}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmech.2019.00005/abstract}, author = {Rachael Quill and Jason J. Sharples and Natalie Wagenbrenner and Leesa Sidhu and Jason Forthofer} } @article {bnh-6035, title = {Monitoring, evaluation and learning toolkit}, number = {517}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide-ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {517}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan} } @article {bnh-5685, title = {Multi-scaled calibration of high-resolution burnt area and fire severity mapping - workshop report}, number = {483}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Many remote Indigenous communities in the tropical savannas of northern Australia reply upon {\textquotedblleft}Savanna Burning{\textquotedblright} methods, as payment for ecosystem services, providing employment and supporting their livelihoods. The methods rely upon accurate science to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. The current methods use fire seasonality to discriminate emissions estimates, whereas fire severity, if mapped with adequate accuracy, will provide a greenhouse gas emissions method more appropriate to customary burning, by advantaging low severity fires, that has the added advantage of being of overall benefit to biodiversity.
In November 2018, we brought an international group of remote sensing scientists together to develop a collaborative program to increase the spatial resolution of current burnt area mapping programs and incorporate fire severity within them. This report firstly outlines the requirements for the products and summarises the findings of the workshop.

}, keywords = {Fire, Fire danger rating, fire severity mapping, multi-scale, workshop}, issn = {483}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-6396, title = {A new decision support tool for prescribed burning risk assessment}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In most Australian jurisdictions, the use of prescribed fire is promoted on the basis of its efficacy in mitigation of risk. Despite this, formal attempts to evaluate effects on risk to people, property and environmental values across different jurisdictions are generally lacking. In particular, there is no basis for assessing the generality of attempts to predict risk in response to any particular strategy for use of prescribed fire (e.g. the 5per cent target recommended by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission). General principles therefore need to be developed about how to apply a risk-based approach across widely varying environments, human communities and combinations of key management values.

In this Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project, researchers from the University of Wollongong, Western Sydney University and the University of Melbourne have come together with end users across southern Australia to design a project to systematically investigate how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Project outputs are currently being moulded for utilisation by end users in a dedicated tool, the Prescribed Fire Atlas, which will guide the implementation of {\textquoteleft}tailor-made{\textquoteright} prescribed burning strategies to suit the biophysical, climatic and human context of all bioregions across southern Australia.

}, keywords = {decision support, Fire, perscibed burning, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-7474, title = {New human capabilities in emergency and crisis management: From non-technical skills to creativity}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, abstract = {

Unprecedented future disaster events will require emergency managers to be creative in their thinking. The backbone of creativity is divergent thinking; cognitive thoughts that do not converge on one correct answer but diverge to a range of possible options. Preliminary research with emergency services organisations, not-for-profit organisations and the critical infrastructure sector identified an increase in creative output when personnel are given a set of constraints, both resources and context, in which to {\textquoteright}think divergently{\textquoteright}. Consequently, future challenges for decision-makers in emergency and crisis management is identifying when creativity is required and how to use constraints to enhance creativity when organisational cultures demand compliance. This paper provides an overview of creativity in the context of decision-making and what this means for future leaders in the sector.

}, keywords = {Decision making, disaster, emergecny managment, future, organisations}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-new-human-capabilities-in-emergency-and-crisis-management-from-non-technical-skills-to-creativity/}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Jason Boldeman} } @article {bnh-7477, title = {Nonprofit and public sector interorganizational collaboration in disaster recovery: Lessons from the field}, journal = {Nonprofit Management \& Leadership}, volume = {30}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {277-297}, abstract = {


Recent disasters have identified that interorganizational collaboration is often fraught with complexity. This article explores interorganizational collaboration in the nonprofit and public sectors during the disaster recovery efforts after a catastrophic flooding event. Based on a series of in-depth interviews with practitioners involved in the recovery following a flooding event, the findings offer insights into the barriers and mechanisms used to facilitate collaboration. In disaster recovery, collaboration is reliant on established interorganizational structures and trusting relationships. Role clarity is the link between these two characteristics, and this article posits the association between this and the concept of swift trust to facilitate collaboration. Theoretically, this article extends an existing multidimensional model of collaboration into the context of emergency management. Importantly, it also offers a tangible output for industry in the form of an aide-m{\'e}moire for collaborating in disaster recovery.

}, keywords = {disaster, management, nonprofit, public sector}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/nml.21389}, author = {Steve Curnin and Danielle O{\textquoteright}Hara} } @article {bnh-5763, title = {Older adults in disaster and emergency management: What are the priority research areas in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {39}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

In Australia, the proportion of people aged over 65 years is increasing and the frequency and severity of natural hazard events are also increasing. Older adults are often identified as a vulnerable group in natural hazard events, but there has been relatively little research that focuses specifically on older adults and their capacities and needs. This paper describes stakeholder consultation undertaken to identify research priorities related to older adults and natural hazards in Australia, and compares this to current research literature on this topic identified in an initial scoping review. A two-phase modified Delphi study was undertaken with stakeholder organisations within Australia, including older adults{\textquoteright} representative organisations, community services, and emergency services. Stakeholders (n = 112) first identified priority research areas and 649 distinct topics were suggested; thematic analysis was used to refine these to 19 research topic areas that were then rated and ranked for importance by stakeholders during phase two. The top five topic areas identified were {\textquoteleft}Communication and warnings,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Preparedness,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Awareness, behaviour and decision-making,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities,{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Community services and organisations{\textquoteright}. While these topics are covered in some Australian literature, further research {\textendash} particularly in relation to CALD communities, and community services/organisations {\textendash} is needed. This study demonstrates the value of stakeholder engagement and the Delphi approach for identifying research priorities that can best address issues and concerns amongst diverse stakeholders. It also highlights that there is a need for further research with older adults, communities, and stakeholders to support preparedness, risk reduction, and resilience.

}, keywords = {CALD, Disaster management, Emergency management, Natural hazards, Older adults, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101248}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919301736?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Lisa Fountain and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor and Susan Ferguson} } @article {bnh-6281, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, number = {525}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made significant progress in several areas of research over the past 12 months. This has included modelling of carbon emissions from prescribed fires using (a) regression modelling to couple the effect of prescribed fire on water and carbon at a catchment scale, and (b) FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems. The latter is a readily accessible tool that has very good potential to be adopted by End User agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. A fuel condition model (the {\textquoteleft}litter triangle{\textquoteright}) detailing carbon load and fuel reduction has been developed for surface fuels in dry sclerophyll forest. This is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. We are in an exciting phase of End User utilisation and tangible uses for our research has been identified and are being pursued. Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports, bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our End Users, and presentations for local, national and international forums. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary End User and have established collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Our vision for the next 12 months is to consolidate our research in the area of estimating carbon emissions from prescribed fires, modelling of carbon and water across the landscape for optimisation of planned burning and linking metrics describing combustion of surfaces fuels with fire severity.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fuel reduction, optimisation, planned burning, safety}, issn = {525}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5698, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {488}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC }, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

In Victoria, we have sadly seen this first-hand. This year marked the 10th anniversary of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (VIC BSB), which remains the most devastating modern-day bushfire our state has witnessed.\  From our fellow BNHCRC Beyond Bushfires researchers, we know that these fires have had profound measurable effects on the mental health of people living in the bushfire-hit areas, with disruptions to income {\textendash} the focus of our own research {\textendash} demonstrated to be a key contributing stressor.

Our pioneering research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, including the VIC BSB, on disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience. By analysing Australian 2006, 2011 and 2016 Census data, we determine whether their income levels were able to recover post disaster in the short and medium term, considering demographic factors and employment sectors.\  Through real-life case studies,\  our research helps illustrate how these events{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time.\ 

}, keywords = {Australia, communities, Emergency management, Multi-hazard, post-disaster recovery, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5421, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia Annual Report 2017-18}, number = {456}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

Despite this, the economic impacts of natural disasters in Australia have often been overlooked in disaster management planning. A substantial problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact {\textendash} both primary and secondary {\textendash} of natural disasters, considering all the affected sections of the economy.

The project aims to assist the Australian federal and state policymakers in building a more sustainable natural disaster recovery model. It investigates the sector-disaggregated economic effects of a number of natural disasters on affected individuals. Through these real-life case studies, the project helps illustrate how these event{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time. \ 

}, keywords = {emergency management., mulit-hazard, post-disaster, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @conference {bnh-6386, title = {Out-of-plane fragility of URM parts and components based on time-history analysis-comparison to simplified force-based approaches}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

This paper presents a technique for constructing analytical fragility curves for generic URM components such as parapets and fa{\c c}ade walls subjected to out-of-plane actions. The technique implements a nonlinear time-history-analysis (THA) that computes the wall{\textquoteright}s displacement history under generic shaking input. The model defines the wall{\textquoteright}s capacity by a force-displacement model that neglects tensile bond strength and assumes that all resistance comes from rocking stability and, where applicable, friction. Synthetic accelerograms compatible with the AS 1170.4-2007 soil class D spectrum were used as the ground motion, and the acceleration input applied at the component level was computed by a precursor THA of the building to account for its motion-filtering influence and height amplification. Fragility curves were generated for several different wall configurations including parapets, one-way and two-way spanning walls. The generated curves are used to examine three alternate force-based approaches permitted by AS 1170.4. It is shown that the code techniques are unreliable in estimating the ground motion intensity to cause collapse, and that they are in some instances overly conservative (uneconomical) while being unconservative in others.

}, keywords = {force-based assessment, fragility curves, out-of-plane, time-history-analysis, unreinforced masonry}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/62-Jaroslav-Vaculik.pdf}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5677, title = {Overcoming Ambiguity: Conflict Between Emergency Warning Messages and Socio-Environmental Cues}, journal = {Prehospital and Disaster Medicine}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Introduction:

Emergency services are not the only source of information that the public uses when considering taking action during an event. There are also environmental cues, information from the media, or actions by peers that can influence perceptions and actions. When cues from different information sources are in conflict, it can cause uncertainty about the right protective action to take.

Aim:

Our research responds to concerns that conflicting cues exacerbate community non-compliance with emergency warnings.

Methods:

The sample consisted of 2,649 participants who completed one of 32 surveys.

Results:

The findings from this project confirmed emergency services agencies{\textquoteright} suspicions that conflicting cues can affect information processing and risk perceptions, and therefore prevent people from taking appropriate protective action. The results were reasonably consistent across fire and flood scenarios, suggesting the problem of conflicting cues is not hazard-specific. When presented with consistent cues, participants were more likely to evacuate, perceive risk about the event, share information with friends, family, and peers, find emergency warnings to be effective, and comprehend information. When faced with conflicting cues, participants were more likely to seek out additional information. It affected their information processing and self-efficacy. The results did not change for people of different ages, native language, country of birth, or post-hazard experience. This is contrary to most emergency literature research findings, which show that individual differences play a role in impacting propensity to take protective action. However, there does appear to be a significant gender effect. These results require further exploration.

Discussion:

These findings may be used to assist emergency services agencies to tailor community warnings during time-critical situations, and develop ways to mitigate ambiguity caused by conflicting cues to encourage protective action in order to save lives and properties.

}, keywords = {behaviours, Emergency management, risk, Risk perception, Warnings}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X1900061X}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/prehospital-and-disaster-medicine/article/overcoming-ambiguity-conflict-between-emergency-warning-messages-and-socioenvironmental-cues/F8F82D37A8E3E526E0C6BD509EB7642F}, author = {Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Sophie Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-6038, title = {Path dependency of the development contributions system}, journal = {Planning News}, volume = {45}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Clause 19 of the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPP) outlines the importance of planning for the timely delivery of social and physical infrastructure, and states that planning authorities should consider the use of infrastructure contributions to assist in achieving this. Infrastructure contributions have been collected in Victoria for some time, but it was not until 1995 that the Development Contributions Plan (DCP) system became legislated in the Planning and Environment Act. This legislation was prompted by a landmark legal case in a greenfield setting known as the {\textquoteright}Eddie Barron decision{\textquoteright} which resulted in the principles of need, nexus, equity and accountability forming the basis of the way in which development contributions are collected in Victoria. The introduction of the Infrastructure Contributions Plan (ICP) system in October 2016 was the first significant change to the way in which development contributions are collected since this legislation was introduced. The ICP currently applies to metropolitan greenfield settings, the application of the system in regional growth areas and strategic development areas is yet to be resolved.

}, keywords = {development, Infrastructure, Planning}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=180596462251061;res=IELBus}, author = {Emily Killin and Alan March} } @conference {bnh-6402, title = {The physical impact of strong winds and heavy rain on residential housing: a pilot study}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Research in the social science area have pointed out that "traditional" hazard-based forecasts and warnings may not be well understood so that mitigating actions for the protection of life and property are not taken (Demuth et al. 2012). The extension of a hazard forecast towards the description of impacts on the forecast recipient might effect a more suitable mitigating response and has led to an emerging and growing desire among National Hydrological and Meteorological Services for impact-based forecasts and warnings (Harrowsmith 2015; World Meteorological Organization 2015).

A number of major weather services (e.g. UK Met Office, Bureau of Meteorology) have therefore introduced impact-based services in recognition of the above findings. Since 2011 the UK Met Office has issued impact-based warnings where the warning level is derived from a risk matrix in a partly subjective procedure (Met Office 2018). In a related manner, the Extreme Weather Desk at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed the Community Hazard Risk Outlook. Forecasters subjectively rate the expected impact level of a model-predicted hazard on a range of assets from which an aggregated impact level is calculated. Combined with a subjective likelihood assessment the UK Met Office risk matrix concept is again utilised to derive an overall hazard risk.

In addition to subjective or partly subjective impact specifications, the factors influential in the final likelihood, location or magnitude of an impact can be delivered as layers, which leaves their integration to the user. An example of such a system is the Global Hazard Map, also produced by the UK Met Office (Robbins and Titley 2018).

}, keywords = {assessment, Forecasting, impact-based, likelihood, mitigation, Warnings}, url = {Research in the social science area have pointed out that "traditional" hazard-based forecasts and warnings may not be well understood so that mitigating actions for the protection of life and property are not taken (Demuth et al. 2012). The extension of }, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and Martin Wehner and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-5675, title = {Physics-Based Simulation of Heat Load on Structures for Improving Construction Standards for Bushfire Prone Areas}, journal = {Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering}, volume = {5}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Australian building standard AS 3959 provides mandatory requirements for the construction of buildings in bushfire prone areas in order to improve the resilience of the building to radiant heat, flame contact, burning embers, and a combination of these three bushfire attack forms. The construction requirements are standardized based on the bushfire attack level (BAL). BAL is based on empirical models which account for radiation heat load on structure. The prediction of the heat load on structure is a challenging task due to many influencing factors: weather conditions, moisture content, vegetation types, and fuel loads. Moreover, the fire characteristics change dramatically with wind velocity leading to buoyancy or wind dominated fires that have different dominant heat transfer processes driving the propagation of the fire. The AS 3959 standard is developed with respect to a quasi-steady state model for bushfire propagation assuming a long straight line fire. The fundamental assumptions of the standard are not always valid in a bushfire propagation. In this study, physics based large-eddy simulations were conducted to estimate the heat load on a model structure. The simulation results are compared to the AS 3959 model; there is agreement between the model and the simulation, however, due to computational restrictions the simulations were conducted in a much narrower domain. Further simulations were conducted where wind velocity, fuel load, and relative humidity are varied independently and the simulated radiant heat flux upon the structure was found to be significantly greater than predicted by the AS 3959 model. The effect of the mode of fire propagation, either buoyancy-driven or wind dominated fires, is also investigated. For buoyancy dominated fires the radiation heat load on the structure is enhanced compared to the wind dominated fires. Finally, the potential of using physics based simulation to evaluate individual designs is discussed.

}, keywords = {building standards, emissions, forest fire, physics-based simulation, wildland fire, wildfire, fire spread}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2019.00035}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmech.2019.00035/full}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Rahul Wadhwani and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6673, title = {Planned and unplanned fire regimes on public land in south-east Queensland}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire }, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Land management agencies in Queensland conduct planned burning for a variety of reasons, principally for management of fuels for human asset protection and biodiversity management. Using Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service{\textquoteright}s archived manually derived fire reports, this study considered the individual components of the fire regime (extent, frequency and season) to determine variation between planned and unplanned fire regimes in south-east Queensland. Overall, between 2004 and 2015, planned fire accounted for 31.6\% and unplanned fire 68.4\% of all fire on Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service state-managed land. Unplanned fire was more common in spring (September{\textendash}October), and planned fire was more common in winter (June{\textendash}August). Unplanned fire affected 71.4\% of open forests and woodlands (148 563 ha), whereas 58.8\% of melaleuca communities (8016 ha) and 66.6\% of plantations (2442 ha) were burnt with planned fire. Mapping fire history at a regional scale can be readily done with existing publicly available datasets, which can be used to inform the assessment of planned burning effectiveness for human asset protection and the management of biodiversity. Fire management will benefit from the continued recording of accurate fire occurrence data, which allows for detailed fire regime mapping and subsequent adaptive management of fire regimes in the public domain.

}, keywords = {controlled burn, ecological burn, fire mapping, prescribed fire, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18213}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF18213}, author = {Martyn Eliott and Tom Lewis and Tyron Venn and Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava} } @inbook {bnh-5412, title = {Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Perspectives and Challenges for the Built Environment in Australia}, booktitle = {Hurricane Risk}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {199-214}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

With statistically significant trends suggesting that tropical cyclones are migrating poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in the South Pacific Ocean basin, it is important to review the current state of knowledge on poleward migrating tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, given the potential impacts they may have on regions traditionally unaffected by tropical cyclones, review of current residential building practice in Australia is warranted. This chapter highlights the significance of the long-term poleward trends in the Southern Hemisphere and potential mechanisms that are driving the geographical shift. Residential building practice in cyclonic and non-cyclonic regions in Australia is discussed to address existing vulnerabilities and how they can lead to catastrophic impacts. Methods and tools to evaluate tropical cyclone risk as well as future research needs are then discussed in the context of adapting to and mitigating for tropical cyclone activity that may migrate poleward. Finally, the chapter concludes with a summary and some finishing thoughts about the advantages of forming multidisciplinary teams to address the grand challenge of disaster resilience in the built environment in Australia.

}, keywords = {hurricane, hurricane risk, risk, South Pacific Ocean basin}, isbn = {978-3-030-02401-7}, issn = {978-3-030-02402-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, author = {Richard Krupar III and D. J. Smith} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6163, title = {The post disaster city: crisis politics and social change in community led earthquake recovery}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters are events of considerable disruption and disturbance. These destructive events rupture perceptions of normality, and in so doing, shed light on obscured and normalised aspects of society. While communities are commonly understood as first responders to disaster, this thesis presents research that deepens our understanding of how communities engage with recovery and how this influences forms of social and political change. In this context, I draw on critical geographies of crisis and hope to frame the potential that emerges from disruption to foster different forms of change. This involves an understanding of the complex dynamics of political and social change in response to disaster, as well as the inter-connected relationship between community led recovery and the actions of the state in responding to crisis. Through investigating this contestation and politicisation, I provide a rich empirical case study to ground the discourses and practices of a politics of crisis and hope at the everyday level.

To achieve this aim, this thesis documents the ongoing recovery of the city of Christchurch in Aotearoa New Zealand following a devastating series of earthquakes. The Canterbury earthquakes that struck in 2010 and 2011 sent shock waves throughout the city and wider region. Loss of life, injury and widespread damage to residential and commercial properties left the city struggling to move beyond the immediate needs for response and into long-term recovery and reconstruction. While the official recovery process has been characterised by a centralised approach to the social, economic and environmental facets of urban disaster recovery, the actions of community organisations and networks have revealed a wider role for citizen participation and engagement. I employ a post-structural methodology to analyse the role of these community organisations in contributing to social and political change in Christchurch, both through official government processes and through autonomous, and potentially radical, projects of co-creation and experimentation.

The findings of this research present a compelling argument for the important role of community led action in shaping diverse forms of disaster recovery, despite the foreclosure of many formal avenues for participation by a centralised government approach. I draw on theories of exception and post politics to argue that the state crafted a political approach to recovery characterised by a discursive and ideological entrenchment of exceptionality and selective de-politicisation. Crucially, I demonstrate how the opportunities facilitated by the rupture of disaster also provide the grounds for possibility and experimentation that challenge this apparent hegemony of neoliberal governance, while creatively and constructively creating alternative forms of society and economy.

The approach of community led recovery thus renders incomplete the attempted foreclosure of democratic participation and provides radical forms of social and political change in the post-disaster landscape. Through the presentation of in-depth empirical evidence, the actions of community organisations and their integral role in producing hopeful manifestations of disaster recovery is highlighted. These forms of community led recovery represent an integral facet for more widely understanding the role of disaster in contesting and reconfiguring society and politics.

}, keywords = {communities, disaster studies, disasters, Emergency management, health and safety}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162124}, author = {Raven Cretney} } @conference {bnh-6330, title = {Post-Disaster Decision Making in Road Infrastructure Recovery Projects - An Interview Study with Practitioners in Queensland}, booktitle = {Australian \& New Zealand Disaster \& Emergency Management Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

The repair and reconstruction of road infrastructure plays a vital role in the recovery process after a disaster event and will be affected by the decision-making processes adopted by asset owners. The objective of this study is to understand how road asset owners assess and prioritise road reconstruction projects in order to identify how decision making could be improved in real-life post-disaster scenarios. This paper presents results of in-depth interviews with road infrastructure practitioners in Queensland, on decision making in a post-disaster context, using a case study based approach. A number of challenges were identified including the lack of a common decision making platform, the lack of focus on the socio-ecological impacts during decision making and the importance of community engagement during the reconstruction process.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Disaster management, Natural hazards, Reconstruction, Road infrastructure}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333842851_Post-Disaster_Decision_Making_in_Road_Infrastructure_Recovery_Projects_-_An_Interview_Study_with_Practitioners_in_Queensland}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Tehmina Khan and Kevin Zhang} } @article {bnh-6395, title = {The potential role of the commonwealth in responding to catastrophic disasters}, number = {530}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

he research question posed, and considered in this paper, is {\textquoteleft}in the absence of legislation, what is the role in, and more importantly what power might the Commonwealth have, when responding and recovering from a catastrophic disaster? Currently the Commonwealth has no overarching or specific counter-disaster legislation.\  This paper argues that even in the absence of legislation there is Commonwealth power to respond to emergencies within the areas of Commonwealth responsibility.\  Further there is an inherent power to deal with catastrophic disasters vested in the Crown as part of the prerogative power of the Crown and now incorporated into the Executive Power of the Commonwealth.\  Exactly what constitutes a {\textquoteleft}catastrophic disaster{\textquoteright} would be open to debate and, in the absence of legislation, may be the subject of judicial challenge. It is argued that a disaster where a state government is overwhelmed so that the state itself is at risk of collapse and there is no effective state government would be a national catastrophic disaster that would justify Commonwealth intervention in the affairs of the state in order to restore effective state government.\  What disaster, short of the collapse of state government, would be sufficient for direct Commonwealth action cannot be conclusively defined.\  \ 
In the absence of legislation and a truly catastrophic event, the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s authority to exercise national leadership and coordinate Commonwealth, state and private assets will depend on good will and cooperation.\  The extent of the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s executive power cannot be identified until the circumstances of the particular disaster have been identified.
Failing to define, in legislation, the role and power of the Commonwealth will leave the Commonwealth to {\textquoteleft}cope ugly{\textquoteright} with any particular catastrophe.\  That may be acceptable as it will leave the Commonwealth with adaptive flexibility. It has however been a consistent recommendation of commentators that the Commonwealth should legislate to ensure that the Commonwealth is able to cope with an inevitable catastrophe.\  \ 
The absence of legislation makes it impossible to define, except in the most generic terms, what the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s powers are.

}, keywords = {Cascading Events, Collapse, Disaster management, Emergency management, Fire, hazards}, issn = {530}, author = {Michael Eburn and Cameron Moore and Andrew Gissing} } @conference {bnh-6387, title = {Predicting Maximum Displacement Demand of Asymmetric Reinforced Concrete Buildings}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

Reinforced concrete buildings make up the majority of Australian building stocks. The buildings generally consist of core walls and/or shear walls as lateral load carrying elements and moment resisting frames as gravitational load carrying elements. The core and/or shear walls are often eccentrically located in the buildings resulting in a large displacement demand on the moment resisting frames that are located at the edge of the buildings. Seismic assessment methods for asymmetrical buildings commonly involve three-dimensional dynamic analyses that can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a simplified analysis method that has been developed to provide estimates for the maximum displacement demand of multi-storey buildings featuring plan asymmetry. The studies form a part of a collaborative research under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC)on {\textquotedblleft}cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright}.

}, keywords = {asymmetrical buildings, reinforced concrete, simplified analysis method, torsion}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/43-Elisa-Lumantarna.pdf}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-6040, title = {Predicting the probability of failure of timber bridges using fault tree analysis}, journal = {Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {783-797}, abstract = {

The resilience of a community in an extreme event depends mainly on the robustness of the critical infrastructures. Road bridges are a critical link of the road network, which plays a focal role in Australia{\textquoteright}s economy, prosperity, social well-being and quality of life. Timber bridges are a weaker link of the Australian road network and they often provide critical access to the rural communities. This research uses a number of bridge inspection reports to develop a method to predict the probability of failure of a timber bridge. The inspected condition states of the elements in the timber bridge are used to develop a Markov chain based model and Gamma process model to predict the deterioration of each element. The probability of condition state movement for each element thus calculated were used in fault tree analysis to estimate likelihood of failure of a bridge in a given time period. Although the developed method is based on limited data and it has several limitations, model can be further refined with the availability of more inspection reports. The method developed is demonstrated using an inspection report for a timber bridge, which was not used in the development of the models.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, fault tree analysis, inspection, Markov process, rehabilitation, Timber structures}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1569069}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15732479.2019.1569069}, author = {Weena Lokuge and Matthew Wilson and Huu Tran and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-5477, title = {A preliminary report on simulation of flows through canopies with varying atmospheric stability}, number = {469}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large eddy simulation is performed for a flow through forest canopy applying various atmospheric stability conditions. The canopy is modelled as a horizontally homogenous region of aerodynamic drag with a leaf-area density (LAD) profile approximating the profile of a Scots pine tree. Varying atmospheric stability is incorporated into the simulation by applying varying heat flux in two different ways; (i) a surface heat flux prescription using Monin-Obukhov similarity functions and, (ii) a canopy heat flux model where heat from the canopy is modelled as distributed volume heat source. When the surface heat flux was prescribed, five stability classes: very unstable, unstable, neutral, stable and very stable are modelled while for canopy heat flux model three classes: stable, unstable and neutral are simulated for this study. We observe, realistically, that the stable and very stable velocity profiles are leaned towards right to neutral velocity profile indicating wind dominated flow. On the other hand, unstable and very unstable velocity profiles become more vertical indicating buoyancy dominated flow. In all velocity profiles, an inflection point is observed in the dense canopy region. Expected variations in the temperature profiles are also observed {\textendash} higher near-ground temperature for unstable and very unstable cases and converse is true for stable and very stable cases. Simulations involving exponential heat source variation vertically for forest canopy is ongoing for validation with experimental data and other similar studies. Once validation is obtained, parametric study with various atmospheric stability can be carried out in order to improve operational models. \ 

}, keywords = {atmospheric surface layer, forest canopy, thermal stratification, turbulence, turbulent kinetic energy}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-5807, title = {Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia July 2003 to June 2017}, number = {506}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Introduction

On average, more than one fire-related death occurs in a residential context every week in Australia. That equates to approximately the same number of deaths as occurred during the Black Saturday bushfires (173) every three years. These deaths are overwhelmingly preventable. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents. The last published national study into residential fire fatalities in Australia was released in 2005 (Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC), 2005). The current study follows on from that report but looks in greater depth at who is most at risk. It provides fire services and other stakeholders with an analysis of preventable residential fire fatalities to inform evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the number of future deaths.

Aims

The aims of this study were to:

Methods

The methodology of this study is based primarily on the collection and analysis of coronial records from the National Coronial Information System (NCIS) database, supported by the analysis of publicly available Coronial reports. The NCIS database is an online facility storing coronial cases from all jurisdictions in Australia from 2000 onwards. To access the NCIS database ethics approvals were obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of Macquarie University and the Victorian Department of Justice and Regulation, from the Coroners Court of Victoria Research Committee and from the Western Australian Coronial Ethics Committee.\ 

Australian records from 1 July 2003 to 30 June 2017 were accessed in the NCIS by a\ variety of searches. After refinement of the applicable dataset, relevant structured\ and non-structured data from the NCIS (comprising the summary page, police,\ autopsy and toxicology reports and coroner{\textquoteright}s findings) were coded for 41 fields and\ entered into a specially constructed Microsoft (MS) Access database {\textendash} the\ Preventable Residential Fire Fatalities Database. Once complete, the data were\ exported to MS Excel tables and statistically analysed.\ \ 

Results/Discussion

Mortaility statistics

This study found that at least 900 people have died in preventable residential fires in\ Australia from July 2003 to June 2017, averaging approximately 64 deaths per year\ or more than one preventable residential fire death every week. This is a national\ death rate of approximately 0.29 per 100,000 population. The majority of deaths\ occur in single fatality incidents. Between 2003 and 2017 there was no clear\ declining trend in fire fatalities.

The results from this study highlight that the conceptualisation of fire fatality risk is\ complex. The presence of a single risk factor on its own is unlikely to significantly\ increase a person{\textquoteright}s risk of dying in a residential fire. It is the co-occurrence of a\ range of factors surrounding the person, their behaviours, their residential\ environment and other external factors that is likely to impact their overall level of
risk of having a fire that results in their death.

Fire services, individuals and other stakeholders can and should do more to reduce the rate of residential fire fatalities further, with an aim of reducing preventable residential fire deaths towards zero. Interventions to reduce the risk of residential fire for those most at risk of dying need to encompass both technological and human-centred approaches.

The residence and location

Free-standing houses/ villas were the housing type where the majority of fatal fires occurred (67.1\%). However, stand-alone houses comprise 78.4\% of housing stock in Australia, so other housing types may be over-represented in the fatality data. Similarly, owner occupiers were the most commonly identified property tenure (53\%), but owner occupiers account for approximately 67\% of all property tenures in
Australia (ABS, 2017). This indicates that other tenure types, such as private and public rentals, may be over-represented in fire fatalities.\ 

Geographically, most fatal residential fires occurred in major cities, but with regard to the death rate per 100,000 population, there was over-representation of deaths in regional and remote areas. The analysis of the fatality data in relation to areas of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) (refer to pp.31-32 and Appendix 3) shows that most fatalities occurred in locations where there is relatively greater socio-economic disadvantage.\ Fatal preventable residential fires start most commonly in the living room/ lounge or\ bedroom. They are not necessarily large or severe fires, with approximately half of\ fatal fires burning one room or less of the structure.

Seasonality

The most common characteristics of residential fires that are fatal include that they\ occur mostly during the Australian winter months. They occur most commonly\ between hours of 8pm-8am and particularly from midnight-4am.

Smoke alarms

Smoke alarms are the most important residential fire safety device. They are required\ by law in residential properties in all Australian jurisdictions. For this study, data on\ smoke alarms was collected from the narrative parts of the NCIS database. In a\ large majority of cases (65.9\%), this information was not known. The extent that the\ presence of a smoke alarm was noted is low considering their importance, and
considering that the absence of a smoke alarm may have had an impact on the\ fatality outcome (e.g., by providing an earlier warning to the fire victim.)

The people

Single variable analysis from the current research found that those most at risk of\ dying in a preventable residential fire included:

By age cohort, people aged >=65 are the group most at risk of dying in a residential fire. In the >=65 cohort, the fatality rate increases with age; older age groups are more at risk. The data indicates that the other factors that increase risk in older people include smoking, having a disability, the presence in their blood of alcohol and/ or medications, living alone and requiring support to live at home. Where these
factors are present in combination, an older person{\textquoteright}s risk may increase significantly.\ 

The presence of a working smoke alarm may not provide early enough warning to enable older people to escape from a fire. This is an area that needs more research, but it indicates that there may be life-saving benefits if fire services and other stakeholders focus on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of older people.

The future fire fatality risk for older people is likely to be on an increasing trajectory due to a range of demographic and policy factors. These include an ageing population and this growing population of older people\ {\textquotedblleft}ageing in place{\textquotedblright} within their own home for longer.

Children aged 0-4 had the largest number of deaths of any 5 year age range. The cause of fire was more often lighters or matches (n=31), which may indicate that a significant number of fires were lit by children during fire-play. The link to social and financial disadvantage was particularly significant in this cohort, with almost half (48.6\%, n=34) of deaths in the 0-4 age bracket occurring in locations in the top 10\% of greatest socio-economic disadvantage, and 87.2\% of fatalities occurred in the top 40\% of locations of greatest disadvantage.

Fire safety interventions for this cohort need to be focused on increasing the basic home fire safety of families with young children, particularly in areas of social and financial disadvantage. Fire services and other stakeholders may consider interventions that partner with other services, such as maternal and child health services, to identify and reach those most at risk.

Within the fire fatality data, 46.7\% (n=420) of decedents were identified as having at least one disability present. Physical disabilities comprised 46.2\% of disabilities identified, while mental health and neurological disorders made up 27.8\% and 9.7\% of disabilities identified. People with a disability are likely to be over-represented in the fire fatality data. Mental health and neurological disorders are an identified risk factor for residential fire fatality. Similar to older people, there may be a lifesaving benefit in fire services and other stakeholders focusing on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of people with a disability.\ 

Some 8.2\% (n=57) of decedents were identified as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander\ (TSI) or both. Approximately 3.3\% of the Australian population identify as Aboriginal\ or TSI (ABS, 2019a), meaning that this cohort are over-represented in the data by a\ factor of 2.5. Aboriginal/ TSI people comprised 12\% of fatalities under 65 years of age and 3\% of people over 65 years, likely reflecting the younger age structure of the\ Aboriginal and TSI population.

Smokers are over-represented to a large extent in residential fire fatalities. Of cases\ where the smoking status of the decedent was known (n=428), 65.4\% of people\ were smokers. During the study period, smoking rates in Australia decreased\ significantly, and reduced-fire-risk cigarettes were mandated in Australia in 2010. In\ the 2004/5 financial year 23.3\% of Australians were smokers. By 2014/15 this had
decreased to 15.5\%. The fatality data does not reflect any decline in the number of\ smokers who died over the course of the study period. It is unclear why this is the\ case.

Smoking materials are a major cause of ignition of fatal residential fires. For those cases where the fire cause was known, over a quarter (26.7\%, n=161) were caused by smoking materials (i.e., cigarettes, pipes etc), with just over a third of those (n=56) relating to smoking in bed. There was a strong link between smoking materials as the cause of fire and the residence being located in a relatively disadvantaged area,\ with 49\% of fires caused by smoking materials occurring in the top 25\% of most\ disadvantaged locations.

Recommendations

Fire services and other stakeholders may consider the following recommendations to reduce the incidence of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia:

Conclusion

Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia remain a significant public health problem, with an average of 64 fatalities each year. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents.

For the first time in over 14 years, this study provides an update on the evidence around the extent of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia, those people most at risk and the details of fire incidents and residences where fatal fires have occurred. It provides a set of data that fire services and other stakeholders can use to develop evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the occurrence of fatal residential fires.

}, keywords = {Australia, Emergency management, Fatalities, Fire, metropolitan fire, MFB}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-3-3}, issn = {506}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Geoff Kaandorp and Julie Harris and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Ashley Avci and Jacob Evans and Steve George and Andrew Gissing and Robin van den Honert and Katharine Haynes} } @conference {bnh-6390, title = {Prioritisation strategy for seismic retrofitting of reinforced concrete buildings in Australia}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

This paper presents a study on the seismic evaluation and retrofit of limited ductile reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, which make up the bulk of built infrastructure in the central building districts and high-density residential areas in Australian cities. In low to moderate seismicity regions such as Australia, RC buildings will have structural elements that have been designed with limited to no ductility. The individual building needs to be assessed and ranked for their retrofitting priority. An assessment for retrofitting methodology involving a three-tiered approach will be introduced in this paper. The assessment framework including a tiered approach was developed to evaluate the potential vulnerability of Australian RC buildings and to facilitate decision making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting. Structural threshold values related to the vulnerable features introduced in the framework were also investigated to support the identification process of the method. It is expected that the developed three-tiered methodology will provide a significant contribution to the seismic evaluation and retrofit of existing RC buildings in Australia.

}, keywords = {reinforced concrete building, seismic evaluation and retrofitting, tiered methodology}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/21-Bin-Xing.pdf}, author = {Bin Xing and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Scott Menegon} } @conference {bnh-6531, title = {Probability and consequence of post-fire contamination events in a water supply catchment}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large cities around the world source their drinking water from forested catchments, which deliver water that is treatable at minimal costs.

These forests are often prone to wildfire, which tend to increase surface runoff, destabilize soils and trigger increased sediment delivery into water supply systems. The consequences of wildfire for water supply are a significant concern, with the potential for extended periods of water supply disruption, increased water treatment cost, and a demand for catchment restoration and investment in expensive treatment infrastructure. Moreover, with climate change, the likelihood of wildfire is increasing in many forest ecosystems making water supply systems increasingly exposed to post-wildfire contamination.

There are numerous uses for models that predict water quality impacts. On an operational level, models that reveal spatial variation in the erosion susceptibility provide catchment managers with a means to prioritize risk mitigation through fuel reduction or post-wildfire response. In such cases, spatial mapping of erosion risk in a relative sense may be sufficient to provide effective tools for allocating resources and mitigating risk in the areas of the catchment that are most likely to be producing sediment. When developing strategic plans and making decisions about the future management of a water resource, the demands on predictive models increase. For instance, a water supply agency may want to determine if there is a case for upgrading water treatment capability or adjusting the water supply network to reduce the likelihood of water supply interruptions due to wildfires. In this setting, a detailed understanding of risk is required for cost-benefit analysis to inform decisions about such investments.

In this study we are motivated by the need amongst water supply managers to know {\textquoteleft}For how long is it likely that my reservoir will be offline due to contamination by post-wildfire erosion?{\textquoteright}. In addressing this question, we seek to provide the means for developing policy and investment strategies within environmental management frameworks that are underpinned by economics and risk. The specific objective of the study is to model how frequency and magnitude of erosion in headwaters translates to probability and duration of water contamination exceeding treatability thresholds at the water offtake. In this study we only consider sediment in our risk model because treatment facilities are often highly vulnerable to turbidity caused by suspended sediment.

Our paper outlines a parameter-reduction approach whereby empirical transfer functions are used to link a probabilistic model of sediment delivery from burned headwaters and a reservoir hydrodynamic model. With these transfer functions we produce a direct measure of risk (i.e. probability of consequence) and discuss practical questions around potential cost of the wildfire threat to water supply agencies and the capacity for catchment managers to mitigate such costs. Furthermore, we use the model to evaluate how different model components contribute to uncertainty in risk.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {erosion risk, fire impacts, fire severity, risk management, water supply}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Petter Nyman and Peter Yeates and Christoph Langhans and Philip J. Noske and Shane Haydon and Gary J. Sheridan} } @article {bnh-6129, title = {Progress report on costing of limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings}, number = {520}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright} under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) aims to develop knowledge to facilitate evidence-based informed decision making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting, revision of codified design requirement, and insurance policy. Previous report has presented vulnerability assessment of two types of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, RC buildings that are mainly supported laterally by limited ductile RC walls and buildings that are supported jointly by limited ductile RC walls and RC frames. The analyses demonstrate buildings that are jointly supported by RC walls and frames to be more vulnerable. This report presents summary findings of the vulnerability analyses along with descriptions for the types of damage observed for each performance levels with the aim of estimating cost of repair for this type of buildings.\ 

}, keywords = {buildings, concrete, emergency recovery, engineering, risk and safety}, issn = {520}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5594, title = {Public health and natural hazards: new policies and preparedness initiatives developed from an Australian bushfire case study}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Objective: Public preparedness for natural hazard events is low. With worsening severe weather events due to climate change, public health policy and practices must evolve to more effectively engage communities. This study{\textquoteright}s findings identify and suggest new strategic public health policies to shift the practice of all-hazards preparedness into routine, everyday life.

Methods: Semi-structured interviews, focus groups and Thematic Analysis were used to investigate the interactions between participant groups: emergency responders and animal owners.

Results: Three policies designed to improve human safety and well-being are proposed and discussed. These are (i) a new system of workplace leave, (ii) an innovative regime of financial incentives for fire-ready properties, and (iii) review of the use of firebreaks on farms and rural blocks.

Conclusion: Policies proposed in this research aim to proactively narrow the awareness-preparedness gap and build adaptive capacity to minimise risk to human health in all-hazards contexts. Further research could evaluate the efficacy of trialled public policy.

Implications for public health: These new policies seek to contribute to establishing and maintaining a culture of preparedness as a routine aspect of everyday life, and thus promote and protect public health in the short, medium and long terms.

}, keywords = {animal owners, Bushfire, emergency responders, Preparedness, public health policy}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, author = {Rachel Westcott and Kevin Ronan and Hillary Bambrick and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-5335, title = {Public information in the emergency services - literature review}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Emergency management can be referred to in terms of {\textquoteleft}Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery{\textquoteright} (PPRR) or the {\textquoteleft}Comprehensive Approach{\textquoteright} to managing disasters and emergencies. The literature review (review) is aimed at public information in the response phase. For the purposes of the review, response is defined as {\textquotedblleft}activities which activate preparedness arrangements and plans to put in place effective measures to deal with emergencies and disasters if and when they do occur{\textquotedblright} (Emergency Management Australia, 2004, p. 4).

The scope of the literature examined is based on four themes; systematic influence, challenges, an evolving field and future directions/solutions. The review informs the report for the Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) and State Emergency Service (SES) (final product) for the unit EMG505 {\textendash} Work Based Project for the qualification of Master of Emergency Management at Charles Sturt University. Across the four themes the following points are considered.

The topic for the review is enhancing public information practice during the response phase, in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s emergency services (Tasmania Fire Service and State Emergency Service).

The structure of the review is through thematic organisation, the division of the research into sections representing the conceptual subject for research (University of New South Wales, 2017). The purpose of the review is to investigate the current state of practice in public information during the response phase, including {\textquoteleft}best practice{\textquoteright}. The review pays particular attention to the literature following the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires in 2009.

}, author = {Peter Middleton} } @conference {bnh-6528, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in fire intensity, spread rates and direction, enhanced ember transport and lightning ignitions. Conventional thunderstorm threats such as downbursts, hail, lightning, and tornadoes may also be present. This paper introduces a pyroCb prediction tool and its application is demonstrated.

In favourable atmospheric conditions, suitably large and hot fires can produce pyroCb cloud in the form of deep convective columns with many similarities to conventional thunderstorms. They may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes, which may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires. Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and can be very difficult to forecast.

In recent Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) research, a method for determining how favourable the atmospheric environment is for pyroCb development was developed. This method is combined with a plume-rise model (originally developed for pollutant dispersion prediction) to determine how much heat a fire must produce for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment. More specifically, this fire heat is the rate at which heat enters the fire plume (which has units of power), often termed the {\textquoteleft}power of the fire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}firepower{\textquoteright}. A theoretical minimum firepower required for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment is calculated, termed the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT).

Forecast spatial plots of PFT are being trialled that provide an indication of how the favourability of the atmosphere for pyroCb development varies in space and time over typical weather forecast periods. It is anticipated that such plots will provide useful guidance for fire weather forecasters and fire agencies. Preliminary studies have shown that the PFT can vary substantially from day to day, and that days that favour pyroCb formation do not necessarily favour large-hot fires. A PFT-flag is also under development that identifies when both pyroCb and large-hot fires are favourable.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fire impacts, predictors, risk management, thunderstorms}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-5615, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6856, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {414-426}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-6549, title = {Quantifying dynamic fire behaviour phenomena using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle technology }, booktitle = {23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Catastrophic wildfires are often a result of dynamic fire behaviours. Although some of these behaviours have been described and investigated, others require further study. Fire coalescence and junction fires are particular cases of merging fire fronts and are common phenomena observed during bushfires. They are important as they can cause rapid escalation of fire behaviour and be dangerous for ground-based emergency personnel. There are a few studies devoted to investigation of merging fires in field conditions. There is a need for high temporal and spatial measurements of fire behaviour in field conditions in order to better understand this phenomenon and evaluate risks during bushfires and prescribed burning. The aim of this study was to test emerging technologies for better quantification of fire behaviour at field scales and evaluate their potential as an operational tool.

Several small and medium scale field experiments were conducted during April 2019 on farmland in Victoria, Australia. Harvested wheat fields were used as experimental plots, as they form relatively homogeneous fuel beds. Fuel height varied from 18 to 40 cm with fuel load and moisture content at 1.1 t/ha and 11.9 \% respectively. Wind speed varied in the range of 1.5-6.5 m/s. An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was used to capture high definition video imagery of fire propagation in synchronisation with sensor data from the on-board Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). These sensors enabled the platform/camera orientation and position in space to be aligned with the video footage of fire propagation and to be georeferenced in GIS software.

Twenty-one junction fires and five inward parallel fire fronts (parts of the fire lines approaching each other) were identified during the experiments. The rate of spread (ROS) of merging fire fronts was found to be at least two times higher than for the basic fire fronts (the rate of spread of a linear fire front in the same fuel bed in no-slope conditions) and for junction fires with acute angles (\< 14{\textdegree}) it increased 6 times and more. Inward parallel fire fronts spread much slower, varying between 0.05 and 0.25 m/s. Forty-six percent of junction fires had increase of the ROS at the final stage of the merging process in contrast to Thomas et al. (2017) and Viegas et al. (2012). Also, it was observed that the angle between two oblique fire fronts did not change significantly in time for the initial angles smaller than 34{\textdegree}. It can be assumed that the main fire front influences on the shape and ROS respectively of junction fires and laboratory experiments cannot fully replicate these conditions.

Although the initial experimental conditions were very different in relation to scale, fuel and wind conditions, similar ROS to that shown in numerical simulations by Thomas et al. (2017) were observed in our field experiments. Further investigation is required to explain the similarities as the relationship between fuel load, wind speed and scale is not known. The comparison of corrected values of dimensionless ROS for different angles between fire fronts with laboratory experiments of Viegas et al. (2012) showed reasonable quantitative agreement.

These experiments have shown that the method of using UAV{\textquoteright}s to capture georeferenced video footage can be used reliably to quantify fire behaviour phenomena for research, operation and management purposes.

Catastrophic wildfires are often a result of dynamic fire behaviours. Although some of these behaviours have been described and investigated, others require further study. Fire coalescence and junction fires are particular cases of merging fire fronts and are common phenomena observed during bushfires. They are important as they can cause rapid escalation of fire behaviour and be dangerous for ground-based emergency personnel. There are a few studies devoted to investigation of merging fires in field conditions. There is a need for high temporal and spatial measurements of fire behaviour in field conditions in order to better understand this phenomenon and evaluate risks during bushfires and prescribed burning. The aim of this study was to test emerging technologies for better quantification of fire behaviour at field scales and evaluate their potential as an operational tool.

Several small and medium scale field experiments were conducted during April 2019 on farmland in Victoria, Australia. Harvested wheat fields were used as experimental plots, as they form relatively homogeneous fuel beds. Fuel height varied from 18 to 40 cm with fuel load and moisture content at 1.1 t/ha and 11.9 \% respectively. Wind speed varied in the range of 1.5-6.5 m/s. An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was used to capture high definition video imagery of fire propagation in synchronisation with sensor data from the on-board Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). These sensors enabled the platform/camera orientation and position in space to be aligned with the video footage of fire propagation and to be georeferenced in GIS software.

Twenty-one junction fires and five inward parallel fire fronts (parts of the fire lines approaching each other) were identified during the experiments. The rate of spread (ROS) of merging fire fronts was found to be at least two times higher than for the basic fire fronts (the rate of spread of a linear fire front in the same fuel bed in no-slope conditions) and for junction fires with acute angles (\< 14{\textdegree}) it increased 6 times and more. Inward parallel fire fronts spread much slower, varying between 0.05 and 0.25 m/s. Forty-six percent of junction fires had increase of the ROS at the final stage of the merging process in contrast to Thomas et al. (2017) and Viegas et al. (2012). Also, it was observed that the angle between two oblique fire fronts did not change significantly in time for the initial angles smaller than 34{\textdegree}. It can be assumed that the main fire front influences on the shape and ROS respectively of junction fires and laboratory experiments cannot fully replicate these conditions.

Although the initial experimental conditions were very different in relation to scale, fuel and wind conditions, similar ROS to that shown in numerical simulations by Thomas et al. (2017) were observed in our field experiments. Further investigation is required to explain the similarities as the relationship between fuel load, wind speed and scale is not known. The comparison of corrected values of dimensionless ROS for different angles between fire fronts with laboratory experiments of Viegas et al. (2012) showed reasonable quantitative agreement.

These experiments have shown that the method of using UAV{\textquoteright}s to capture georeferenced video footage can be used reliably to quantify fire behaviour phenomena for research, operation and management purposes.

}, keywords = {fire front propagation, merging fire fronts, Remote measurements, UAS}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338412609_Quantifying_dynamic_fire_behaviour_phenomena_using_Unmanned_Aerial_Vehicle_technology}, author = {Alex Filkov and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6666, title = {Rainwater ingress through residential sliding doors}, number = {545}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out following windstorms have shown significant damage caused by rainwater ingress (Boughton, Falck et al. 2017). A preliminary experimental study was carried out at the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) that simulated wind driven rain on a residential window under strong wind conditions to observe rainwater ingress.

The external pressures on a building envelope vary in time and space on the surface of a building with windward walls experiencing positive pressures and all other surfaces (side and leeward walls and roof) subjected to negative pressures.

Internal pressure fluctuations in a nominally sealed building with a porous envelope, are generally much lower than the external pressure fluctuations. This internal pressure is usually a small suction pressure and hence the net (i.e. (external {\textendash} internal)) pressure across the windward wall is positive but negative across the other surfaces. This pressure differential along with wind driven rain can result in air-entrained water ingress into the building through windows that are closed due to gaps and weep-holes.

Preliminary tests were conducted at the CTS on a window attached to the wind driven rain simulator (WDRS) to assess rainwater leakage and potential measures that could reduce leakage.

}, keywords = {ingress, rainwater, sliding doors}, issn = {545}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and Leblais, Alex and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-5833, title = {Recovery capitals: applying a community capitals framework to disaster recovery annual report 2018-2019}, number = {510}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on mental health and wellbeing outcomes. It will address the missing link between existing community resilience indicators and disaster resilience frameworks by providing evidence and resources to guide decision making customised to the community context.

ReCap has shown marked progress in the first year of operation under the current academic team by engaging a large team of end-user and stakeholder organisations who are actively involved in progressive decision making. Detailed evidence mapping against the community capitals framework has been undertaken using previous research conducted by the academic teams and collaborators.

The ReCap activity has enabled new collaborations, including the invitation to Professor Aldrich from Northeastern University and BNHCRC colleagues, Professor Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beani from Deakin University to join ReCap to address gaps in the evidence for cultural, political and financial capital. It has also enabled new collaborations and initiatives in Aotearoa New Zealand with Massey University, in partnership with the Wellington Emergency Management Office, Fire and Emergency New Zealand and the New Zealand Red Cross.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, emergency recovery, recover}, issn = {510}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and Kate Brady} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8094, title = {Reducing turnover in volunteer organisations: A leadership intervention based on self-determination theory}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {230}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Background:\ Increasingly high turnover rates in volunteer organisations have reached critical levels. Australian volunteer emergency service organisations are struggling to maintain adequate volunteer numbers to continue to deliver vital services to the community. The experience volunteers have with their leader is one of the strongest predictors of future volunteering. Despite industry, government and academics calling for increased focus on the training and development of volunteer leaders, there is currently limited theoretical and/or empirical guidance to support this endeavour. Little is known about what leadership approaches are effective or suitable with volunteers. Furthermore, it is unknown how volunteers{\textquoteright} experiences with their leader comes to influence their decision to stay with or leave the organisation. This thesis seeks to address these issues and formulates an evidence-based approach for improving leadership to help retain volunteer workers in Australian emergency service organisations.

Aim:\ The aim of this thesis is to examine the application of managerial autonomy support, an interpersonal style proposed by Self Determination Theory (SDT), as an approach to volunteer leadership, focusing on its potential to retain volunteers. In order to achieve this, the thesis addresses three objectives. First, the hypothesized conceptual model that delineates the relations between perceived managerial autonomy support, followers{\textquoteright} basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention is tested in the volunteer organisations. The second objective is to determine whether, through an SDT-based leadership development intervention, leaders can change and/or develop their managerial orientation towards autonomy support. The final objective is to ascertain whether followers of these leaders perceive changes in their socio-contextual climate during the intervention period.

Method:\ A total sample of 363 participants was obtained for this study, comprising 167 leaders and 196 followers across four volunteer emergency service organisations in Australia. A quasi-experimental design tested the impact of an SDT-based leadership intervention on leaders (n=65) and their followers, compared to a control group of leaders (n=102) who received no training. Leaders{\textquoteright} self-reported managerial orientation was assessed at pre-test, post-test and one year after the intervention. Followers{\textquoteright} perceived managerial autonomy support from the leader, basic psychological needs satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention were measured before and after their leader completed the intervention.

Results:\ A test of the hypothesised model via structural equation modelling indicate that emergency service workers{\textquoteright} perceptions of leaders{\textquoteright} managerial orientation influenced their job satisfaction and subsequent turnover intention through basic psychological needs satisfaction. Testing the impact of the SDT leadership development intervention, leaders in the experimental condition changed their interpersonal orientation towards autonomy support after completing the intervention and these reflected enduring changes that remained evident one year later. The intervention was most effective for leaders with relatively little prior experience leading volunteers, who showed greater propensity for developing their managerial orientation. Followers did not report any significant changes in the provision of autonomy support from their leader, basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction or turnover intention over the nine weeks their leader was participating in the SDT-based leadership development intervention.

Contribution/Implications:\ This thesis provides one of the most in-depth empirical explorations to date, of the malleability of managerial autonomy support amongst organisational leaders. A contribution is made to the scholarly study of volunteer leadership more broadly, by offering a validated theoretical model of leadership and its influence on followers in the volunteer context. This research provides support for Self-Determination Theory in the volunteer organisations.

}, keywords = {Autonomy, autonomy support, basic psychological needs, competence, dyads, Emergency management, emergency services, field experiment, interpersonal skills, intervention, job satisfaction, leaders, leadership, leadership development, leadership intervention, leadership training, management, manager, managerial autonomy support, motivation, motivation theory, organisational development, organisations, relatedness, self-determination theory, structural equation modelling, supervisors, turnover intention, volunteer, volunteer leadership, volunteer retention, volunteer satisfaction, volunteer turnover, workplace}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/692/}, author = {Vivien Forner} } @article {bnh-7233, title = {Reliability of Build Back Better at enhancing resilience of communities}, journal = { International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {208-221}, abstract = {

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse the reliability of Build Back Better slogan in the context of post-disaster housing reconstruction in developing countries, at enhancing disaster-resilience of housing and its occupants in the long term from socio-ecological systems resilience perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

A predominantly qualitative methodology and multi-disciplinary case study methodology is adopted to compare long-term outcomes of two post-disaster housing reconstruction interventions: post-2008 Bihar Kosi River floods in India and post-2010 Mentawai earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia.

Findings

Out of the nine generalizable findings, two of the most significant findings include giving freedom of choice or human capabilities to the disaster survivors and sustaining capacity development during and beyond the completion of housing reconstruction. These two processes play a significant role in linking reconstruction to resilience in the long term, especially of those living at- risk and poverty.

Originality/value

This paper further advances the current scholarship on overarching long-term impacts of housing reconstruction efforts, based on longitudinal and empirical studies in India and Indonesia. While these findings represent a snapshot of diverse and complex disaster experiences in the developing-world context, the comparison offers insight into how to turn the rhetoric surrounding {\textquotedblleft}owner-driven{\textquotedblright} or {\textquotedblleft}built back better{\textquotedblright} into long-term resilience outcomes.

}, keywords = {Capacity building; post-disaster reconstruction}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2019-0025}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2019-0025/full/html}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Irina Rafliana} } @article {bnh-5426, title = {Relicts at Risk: Impacts of the 2016 Tasmanian Fires on Pencil Pine (Athrotaxis Cupressoides)}, number = {459}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel loads within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in mature wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.\ 

}, keywords = {fire impacts, fire management, post-fire recover}, author = {Aimee Bliss and Lynda Prior and David Bowman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5778, title = {Remote sensing of tree structure and biomass in north Australia mesic savanna}, volume = {Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, school = {Charles Darwin Unviersity}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The quantification of Above Ground Biomass (AGB) plays a major role in issues related to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, pertaining to global warming and the effects of climate change. In Eucalyptus miniata/tetrodonta dominated open-forest in Australia{\textquoteright}s northern tropical savanna, AGB mapping is challenging, due to the complex structure of the canopy stand, highly dynamic woody cover, vast spatial extent, vulnerability to climatic effects and the impacts of extensive fire.\ 

Remotely sensed data allow for the mapping, quantification and monitoring of AGB at various scales. Quantification of AGB in tropical savanna by common medium and coarse spatial resolution optical sensor data is inappropriate to monitor finer-grained ecological processes responsible for measuring carbon stocks at an individual tree level and are limited in detecting vertical vegetation structure. There is limited research on the utility of airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and alternative high resolution (\< 0.5 m) remote sensing tools for Australian savanna structural assessment. The main goal of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of small footprint airborne LiDAR and determine whether Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite stereo remote sensing data can be used to extract tree biophysical and vertical structural parameters for the purposes of accurately estimating biomass stocks in Australian mesic savannas.\ 

This study utilized a two-phase LiDAR analysis procedure integrating both Individual Tree Detection (ITC) and Area-Based Approaches (ABA) to better understand how the uncertainty of biomass estimation varies with scale. Regression analysis was applied on remote sensing data to develop biomass estimation models based on tree height allometry. This study demonstrated that where field-plot data are spatially limited, it is possible to use a hierarchical integration approach based on AGB uncertainty calculation and calibration to upscale AGB estimates from individual trees to broader landscapes.

}, keywords = {biomass, greenhouse gas, Lidar, northern Australia, remote sensing, tree structure}, url = {https://researchers.cdu.edu.au/en/studentTheses/remote-sensing-of-tree-structure-and-biomass-in-north-australia-m}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs} } @conference {bnh-6526, title = {Research activities within European Union research program for improving preparedness and resilience }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS) is an international not for profit non-profit organisation, registered in Belgium, operating in its 26th year. TIEMS has chapters in 14 countries around the world and is in the process of establishing three new chapters this year. TIEMS activities comprise international conferences and workshops; research and development activities; and education, training and certification programs. TIEMS{\textquoteright}s slogan is: Preparedness saves lives.

Since 2006 TIEMS has participated as a consortium partner in European Union (EU) Research and Technology Development (RTD) programs to improve emergency preparedness. In addition, TIEMS experts have been members of user groups and advisory boards for a variety of other EU projects focusing on preparedness in Europe and worldwide. The present running EU program is Horizon 2020, which will have invested more than 100 billion Euro in RTD by the end of 2020, by EU RTD funding and private investment.

Four EU projects where TIEMS has been a consortium partner are: NARTUS (addressing important public safety communication issues); ASSET (improving trust between authorities and the public for pandemics and epidemics); HERACLES (protecting cultural heritage sites towards climate change), and DG ECHO Wildfire HUB (establishing an expert HUB in Europe to support wildfire fighting and to serve as a prototype for additional expert HUB{\textquoteright}s for other disasters in Europe). This paper summarizes the approaches developed by these programs to improve emergency preparedness.

TIEMS has also launched its own internal RTD project to develop a curriculum and on-line system for TIEMS International Certification {\textendash} TQC, which aims to become an internationally recognised certification of qualifications in international emergency management. This paper describes the structure and operational aspects of TQC.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Preparedness, protection, research program, resilience}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Drager, Kaare H and Robertson, Thomas} } @article {bnh-5745, title = {Restorative inquiries and natural disasters - symposium report}, number = {495}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In October 2016, the Policies Institutions and Governance of Natural Hazards research project released a discussion paper on {\textquoteleft}Learning for emergency services, looking for a new approach{\textquoteright}. As a result of feedback on that paper a forum was held to discuss the use of restorative practices in post event inquiries.
This forum, held at the Universtiy of Newcastle, identified that:

Communities and people need to be at the centre of the process. Those affected need to be involved in designing the process and taking responsibilities for implementing the learning. In traditional inquiries the inquiry decides what is important, makes meaning from the evidence and hands down its recommendations to others. It does not have responsibility to implement the recommendations and the findings may not be about what matters to those involved.

This report summarises the presentations and their findings to stimulate agencies and governments to think about alternative ways to conduct post event inquiries.

}, keywords = {communities, inquiries, Research utilisation}, issn = {495}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-6656, title = {Retrofitting of a high-set Queensland house for wind loading}, number = {541}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents a preliminary study on the retrofitting/upgrading of roofing connections in an older Australian house type to improve its performance under wind loading. The house type selected is a rectangular plan high-set house with a low pitched gable roof. These houses are common in North Queensland and have been the subject of previous vulnerability studies by the Cyclone Testing Station. In previous studies this house type is also known as the {\textquoteleft}Group-4 House{\textquoteright}.

Vulnerability to wind loads of a population of these houses will be estimated using the Vulnerability and Wind Simulation (VAWS) software that is currently under development by the Cyclone Testing Station and Geoscience Australia. The changes to vulnerability functions for four connection upgrading scenarios are investigated. These preliminary analyses are used to inform initial cost benefit estimates for retrofitting older Australian houses.

}, keywords = {Housing, retrofitting, roofing, wind loading}, issn = {541}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and Martin Wehner and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-5381, title = {Review of resilience assessment of coastal bridges to extreme wave-induced loads}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {185}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, chapter = {332}, abstract = {

Coastal bridges are susceptible to severe damage due to wave-induced forces during\ extreme events\ such as\ coastal flooding, hurricanes,\ storm surges\ and\ tsunamis. As a direct impact of\ climate change, the frequency and intensity of these events are also expected to increase in the future. This paper presents a comprehensive review of a four-phase resilience assessment of coastal\ bridge structures, namely, (i)\ characterization\ of external wave-induced forces, (ii)\ structural response\ of bridges, (iii) vulnerability assessment of damaged components, and (iv) post-disaster recovery. The four comprehensive modules are adopted from the classic framework of PEER PBEE and constitute the\ integrated knowledgeneeded for the prediction of the resilience of infrastructure under extreme wave-induced loads. The study also presents new expressions for resilience restoration that simultaneously account for the time, resources (cost) and\ environmental impacts\ of different recovery options with variable importance levels to different stakeholders.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.01.101}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029618318194}, author = {Ismail Qeshta and Javad Hashemi and Rebecca Gravina and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-5772, title = {Risky business: Why diversity and inclusion matter}, number = {499}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Effective diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is at the heart of what emergency management organisations (EMOs) are and do. It is now clear that if they are not inclusive of the difference that diversity brings, they are placing at risk their organisations and the communities they work with.

Australian communities and the risks they face are changing. For the Emergency Management Sector (EMS), this emphasises the importance of building resilience and developing community partnerships. EMOs need to see themselves represented within the community and communities need to see themselves represented within EMOs. As a result, effective D\&I, which can support these activities, is starting to be seen as a core capability. There is also a growing recognition that if EMOs are to become agile, learning organisations who can effectively manage diversity and change, D\&I will need to move from a peripheral activity to a central focus. A clear message from this project is that the key to this is for EMOs to focus on developing an inclusive culture.

A key barrier to achieving effective D\&I is a limited understanding of how to join conceptual aspects of D\&I to practical application and tasks, and to use that to develop a set of focused activities capable of achieving their goals. Specifically, understanding why D\&I is important for core business and how it enhances service delivery {\textendash} particularly in lower levels of organisations. Without answers to these questions, it can be difficult to develop the strategies needed to support and guide the multiple areas of activity required to achieve a diverse and inclusive workforce.

The workshop {\textquoteleft}Into the future: building capabilities and skills for inclusive and diverse organisations{\textquoteright} held in December 2018 at Victoria University, aimed to explore these issues. In particular, it aimed to understand:

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion}, isbn = {978-1-86272-807-3}, issn = {499}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-5646, title = {River reconstruction using a conformal mapping method}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {119}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, pages = {197-213}, abstract = {

Accurate river bathymetry is required for applications including hydrodynamic flow modelling and understanding morphological processes. Bathymetric measurements are typically a set of depths at discrete points that must be reconstructed into a continuous surface. A number of algorithms exist for this reconstruction, including spline-based techniques and kriging methods. A novel and efficient method is introduced to produce a co-ordinate system fitted to the river path suitable for bathymetric reconstructions. The method is based on numerical conformal mapping and can handle topological features such as islands and branches in the river. Bathymetric surfaces generated using interpolation over a conformal map are compared to spline-based and kriging methods on a section of the Balonne River, Australia. The results show that the conformal mapping algorithm produces reconstructions comparable in quality to existing methods, preserves flow-wise features and is relatively insensitive to the number of sample points, enabling faster data collection in the field.

}, keywords = {Conformal mapping, Depth reconstruction, flood management, River bathymetry, Spatial interpolation}, issn = {1364-8152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815219301082}, author = {James Hilton and Stefania Grimaldi and Cohen, R and Garg, N and Yuan Li and Marvanek, S and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5696, title = {The roles of pharmacists in disaster health management in natural and anthropogenic disasters}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {Queensland University of Technology}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

This study investigated pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters and identified the acceptance and expectations of pharmacists throughout the different stages of a disaster. Taking an all-hazard and inclusive approach, this research included key stakeholders from international disaster and emergency management organisations as well as pharmacy organisations. Pharmacists{\textquoteright} skills and knowledge are typically underutilised in disasters and it was identified that their abilities extend beyond the traditional role of logistics and supply management. There are multiple practice areas in a disaster in which a pharmacist{\textquoteright}s expertise could be valuable in patient care, logistics, governance, and public health.

}, keywords = {Disaster management, disasters, Logistics, Patient care, Pharmacists, Preparedness, prevention, recovery, response, Roles}, url = {https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130757/}, author = {Kaitlyn Watson} } @conference {bnh-6507, title = {Safety awareness of firefighters and their perception of fire risks in cladding fires }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Owing to the extensive use of polymers in building products, there is the urgent need to resolve the present fire risks of highly combustible cladding products. Apart from understanding the risks associated with cladding materials on buildings, it is also essential to evaluate the underlying risks of existing noncompliant materials on buildings for residents, owners, and the public, and for firefighters during the management of such fire events. In this article, a fire risk perception survey was constructed by a collaborative effort from Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) and University of New South Wales. The survey can be subdivided into four major parts, i) demographics, ii) risk awareness and identification associated with cladding material, iii) the firefighter{\textquoteright}s own perceived risk associated with cladding fires and iv) risk mitigating behaviours. The majority of the questions are designed with five distinctive levels (i.e. ranging from rare to almost certain, or negligible to very high), and it will be distributed to firefighters from major states and rural fire agencies around Australia. The results will formulate a large and comprehensive database to increase our understanding of the firefighter{\textquoteright}s risk perception associated with combustible cladding materials.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {cladding, Emergency management, fire management, Fire risk, firefighter, risk awareness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Timothy Bo Yuan Chen and Anthony Chun Yin Yuen and Qing Nian Chan and Guan Heng Yeoh} } @article {bnh-5503, title = {Salivary cortisol profiles of on-call from home fire and emergency service personnel}, journal = {The International Journal on the Biology of Stress}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Working on-call with a night call resulted in a depressed (lower) cortisol awakening response (CAR) peak and post-awakening cortisol area under the curve with respect to ground (AUCG) the following day compared to when off-call. This may be due to exposure to noise, physical exertion, and stressful events during night callouts. There was no anticipatory effect to working on-call in any of the cortisol measures examined. This study, of male fire and emergency service workers who operate on-call from home, had two aims: (1) examine CAR and diurnal cortisol profile following a night on-call with a call, on-call without a call, and off-call; and, (2) explore whether there is an anticipatory effect of working on-call from home on diurnal cortisol profiles. Participants wore activity monitors, completed sleep and work diaries and collected seven saliva samples a day (0 min, 30 min, 60 min, 3 h, 6 h, 9 h, and 12 h after final awakening) for one week. CAR peak, reactivity and area under the curve with respect to increase (AUCI), post-awakening cortisol AUCG, diurnal cortisol slope and AUCG, and mean 12-h cortisol concentrations were calculated. The final analysis included 26 participants for Aim 1 (22 off-call nights, 68 nights on-call without a call, and 20 nights on-call with a call) and 14 participants for Aim 2 (25 days leading up to a night off-call and 92 days leading up to a night on-call). Generalized estimating equations models were constructed for each variable of interest. Aim 1: CAR peak and post-awakening cortisol AUCG\ were 8.2 {\textpm} 3.4 nmol/L and 5.7 {\textpm} 2.4 units lower, respectively, following a night on-call with a call compared to an off-call night. Aim 2: the day before a night on-call was not a significant predictor in any model. The lower CAR peak and post-awakening cortisol AUCG\ following a night on-call with a call compared to following an off-call night may be due to exposure to noise, physical exertion, and stressful events during night callouts. The lack of difference between the day before a night on-call and the day before an off-call night suggests there may not be an anticipatory effect on cortisol when on-call from home.

}, keywords = {Cortisol awakening response (CAR), distal on-call, diurnal cortisol profile, firefighters, home call, state emergency service workers}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10253890.2019.1584178}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/yDhRfifePuVq2Fxf8MCZ/full?target=10.1080\%2F10253890.2019.1584178\&}, author = {Sarah J Hall and Anne I. Turner and Sam J Robertson and Sally Ferguson and Brad Aisbett} } @conference {bnh-6508, title = {School-based bushfire education: advancing teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to Recommendation 6 of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the topic of bushfire has been incorporated into the Australian school curriculum. To support the implementation of this new curriculum content, fire agencies and education authorities have invested in a range of bushfire education programs and resources. Research in the field of school-based bushfire education has also intensified. Drawing on key findings from a suite of recent Australian studies, this paper outlines two key elements of effective school-based bushfire education that have the potential to advance teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience. The first is a holistic risk framework that builds children{\textquoteright}s conceptual understanding of bushfire risk as a socioenvironmental phenomenon that derives from the interaction a physical hazard, the vulnerability of exposed people and assets, and the capacities people possess for disaster risk reduction. The second is a place-based pedagogy of bushfire risk, which grounds teaching and learning in the socioenvironmental contexts of children{\textquoteright}s lives.\  The paper concludes with some key recommendations for the continued development of good practice in this emergent field.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, education, resilience, risk management, risk reduction, schools, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Briony Towers} } @conference {bnh-6398, title = {Science in operations: QFES response to the 2018 Queensland fires}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In late November 2018, Queensland experienced an unprecedented fire event, with more than 1,000 bushfires burning across the state. Fire weather conditions peaked on Wednesday 28 November, with {\textquoteright}Catastrophic{\textquoteright} fire danger observed at Rockhampton Airport for over three hours. Over 1 million hectares of land were burnt, 479 post-fire damage assessments were completed, with nine homes destroyed and a further eight damaged .Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) requested national resources to support both tactical firefighting and operational roles. In anticipation of forecast conditions on 28 November, QFES Manager of Predictive Services, Fire Behaviour Analyst (FBAN) Andrew Sturgess requested Bureau of Meteorologist (BoM) meteorologist and Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) researcher Mika Peace provide support to the State Operations Centre FBAN team. In this paper, we share our personal experiences and reflections as well as those of the FBAN team. In summary, we consider how the Queensland learnings may inform future events. Challenges include resourcing to develop teams with the appropriate capabilities and the ability to identify extreme conditions in advance.

}, keywords = {Fire weather, multidisciplinary, operations}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Andrew Sturgess and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-5731, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy \& planning - final report}, number = {494}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the Final Report of the {\textquoteleft}RMPP project{\textquoteright} (Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning project), which addressed the use and utility of science and other forms of knowledge by natural hazard practitioners, and the pragmatic meaning these hold for their risk mitigation work. Natural hazard managers often expect, and are expected, to achieve outcomes by using scientific facts and rational problem-solving to increase certainty of decisions in the face of hazardous events (Funtowitcz and Ravetz, 2003). At the same time, the uncertainties of natural hazards means that this sector has always set different terms to the this {\textquoteleft}pipeline{\textquoteright} approach to the use science (also called the {\textquoteleft}linear model of scientific expertise{\textquoteright}). The ability of policymakers and practitioners to explain and justify risk mitigation and its evidence is compromised without greater insight into how science and other forms of knowledge are used in emergency management policy and practice. The sector does not receive the full range of information it requires, and continues to be vulnerable to the perpetuation of {\textquoteleft}myths{\textquoteright} about science, its use and its usefulness.

}, keywords = {fire impact, policy and planning, risk, scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty}, issn = {494}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Liz Clarke} } @article {bnh-6336, title = {Seismic fragility assessment of nonstructural components in unreinforced clay brick masonry buildings}, journal = {Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

The results of an investigation of the probability of earthquake damage to nonstructural unreinforced masonry (URM) components are presented. The components include parapets, chimneys, and out-of-plane loaded facades typical of low-rise pre-1940 construction in Australia and New Zealand. The study is based on a street survey of component geometry, in situ data on material strength, and simplified mechanical models. Uncertainties in capacity and demand were quantified based on, respectively, stochastic and deterministic approaches. The damage probabilities were compared with relevant guidelines and empirical damage data from three earthquakes. The study established a link between the qualitative damage states reported in existing guidelines and the quantitative URM component damage states. While some median damage state thresholds correlated well with the data from the guidelines, a larger dispersion value was found in the current study due to the large variations in component properties. Comparisons with empirical data suggest that the developed fragility data provide a realistic estimate of nonstructural component damage that occurred in similar buildings, with a reasonable level of conservatism. The outcome is useful in rapid assessment of the seismic risks due to nonstructural component collapse in URM precincts.

}, keywords = {Damage, earthquake, seismic risk, unreinforced masonry}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3238}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eqe.3238}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Kevin Walsh and Jason Ingham and Michael Griffith and David Thambiratnam} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5780, title = {The sensitivity of the empirical mode decomposition and its application on environmental data}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {The University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a powerful data analysis method that can be used to extract embedded components within time series and other data. In the context of EMD, these embedded components are called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF). Since its inception in the late 1990s, EMD has been applied in a number of areas, including biomedicine, neuroscience, epidemiology, chemical engineering, finance, atmospheric turbulence, seismology and oceanography. The method is advantageous in that it is able to analyse nonlinear and non-stationary data. Surprisingly, the literature exploring the ability of EMD to analyse data with different types of non-stationarity is relatively sparse. Also, the sensitivities associated with the critical initial steps of the EMD procedure are not well understood. One of the critical steps in determining each of the IMFs involves constructing upper and lower envelopes of the local maxima and minima of the time series. In the original presentation of the EMD methodology, cubic-spline interpolation was used to construct these envelopes. However, there is now a prior reason to support the use of cubic splines, and it is natural to wonder how employing alternative interpolation methods might affect the ultimate outcome of the EMD method.This dissertation is dedicated to providing a more comprehensive understanding ofthe sensitivity of EMD to different interpolation methodologies, and to different types of data non-stationarity. These sensitivities are investigated systematically using synthetic time series data that cover a range of interesting features. In addition,a number of environmental data sets are used to explore how EMD sensitivity can influence the inferences that might be drawn from IMFs extracted using various forms of the EMD method. In this part of the study, temperature, sea level and forest fire danger rating time series are chosen. There is significant interest in the way these particular variables might be changing over various time scales, and how these changes might impact various ecosystems, including human societies. The analyses conducted in this thesis suggest that the robustness and accuracy of EMD is improved when smoothing-spline interpolation is employed as its underlying interpolation method. In particular, Smoothing Ensemble EMD (SEEMD) is introduced, and is shown to out-perform other EMD methods in a number of important contexts. Specifically, SEEMD is shown to be more robust in the presence of noise and is able to extract more meaningful features from the environmental times series. It is also found, however, that all EMD-based methods perform poorly when confronted with time series exhibiting abrupt non-stationarity.

}, keywords = {emergency management., empirical mode decomposition, environmental data, interpolation, sensitivity}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?docid=unsworks_54791\&context=L\&vid=UNSWORKS\&lang=en_US\&search_scope=unsworks_search_scope\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=default_tab\&query=any,contains,the\%20sensitivity\%20of\%20the\%20empirica}, author = {Mona Ziaeyan Bahri} } @conference {bnh-5504, title = {Simulated transport of short-range embers in an idealised bushfire}, booktitle = {6th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Mega-bushfires like the 2009 Black Saturday, Australia, the 2016 Fort McMurray fire, Canada, and the 2018 Carr fire, USA cause billions of dollars in damage and result in loss of life. The sources of ignition of the fires are often natural or accidental such as lightning, campfire, cigarette butts, or machinery and tools (Miller, Plucinski et al. 2017). The frequency of bushfires isset to increase due to the positive feedback effect of climate change (Jolly, Cochrane et al. 2015). There is an increasing trend of settlement of people at wildland-urban-interface (WUI) (Radeloff, Helmers et al. 2018) which increases the impact of bushfire. Accurate and quick prediction of the evacuation of communities and the behaviour of a bushfire will make a difference in reducing the impact of bushfire (Mell, McDermott et al. 2010, Ronchi, Gwynne et al. 2017).

}, keywords = {bushfire management, fire behavour. fire impacts, modeling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332142658_Simulated_transport_of_short-range_embers_in_an_idealised_bushfire}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6247, title = {Simulation and analysis of surface wind fields during landfalling tropical cyclones}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Queensland}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are rotating atmospheric vortices characterised by high wind speeds thatpose a major threat to people and infrastructure in coastal communities. To minimise their impacts,the winds in the lowest part of the TC boundary layer (TCBL) must be adequately understood. Thisunderstanding enables engineers to make rational decisions around building design in these regionsand allows meteorologists to improve their forecasts. Of particular importance is how the TCBL ismodified when abrupt changes in surface terrain conditions occur, such as during landfall, which cansignificantly alter the physical structure of a TC. Although near-surface TC wind data has begun to becaptured through coordinated field campaigns in, for example, the USA and Australia, there is littleexplicit information on how the TCBL is modified during landfall or in the vicinity of other suddenchanges in land surface conditions. This thesis sets out to investigate this process through, 1) analysisof near-surface wind observations, and 2) numerical simulation of idealised TCs.To explore how near-surface turbulence is modified, the present study analysed observational TCwind records at measurement heights of 2.25 m, 3 m, 5 m, and 10 m collected during 11 TCs from theFlorida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP), StickNet, and the Surface Weather Information Relayand Logging network (SWIRLnet). These low-level records will be analysed to assess their turbulentcharacteristics and the response of these characteristics to sudden changes in land surface. Resultswere compared with traditional engineering models (AS/NZS1170.2, ESDU) predicting turbulencetransition in non-TC environments to assess their efficacy in TC environments. Results show thatturbulence statistics require about 2 km to reach equilibrium with the underlying terrain, independentof measurement height and upstream terrain. Engineering models tested were found to over predictturbulence intensities in a TC environment. A simple empirical model for estimating the transition ofturbulence intensity following a single change in terrain is proposed.Exploring more broadly how the mean TCBL structure is modified during TC landfall, this thesisalso uses hybrid real-idealised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical simulations toinvestigate the mean TCBL response during landfall. This numerical modelling method combines anidealised spun-up TC and a real world environment to undertake a series of parametric simulationswhere idealised TCs impact coastlines with a range of terrain conditions. These tests systematicallyexplore how sudden changes in terrain (e.g. sea to different land surfaces) influence bulk stormcharacteristics (e.g. TC size, radius of maximum wind), surface wind footprints, and vertical TCwind profiles in different parts of simulated TCs. Generated TC wind profiles are also compared withobservational dropsonde data as well as one existing analytical model. Increased surface roughnessover land was found not to deflect the TC track prior to landfall, but was shown to lower TC intensity.Increased surface roughness was also found to reduce maximum surface level wind speeds by up to70\% within 12 hours after TC landfall. Modelled TCBL profiles over water follow a logarithmic windprofile up to the height of maximum wind speed, which increases with TC radius. TCBL profiles overland also exhibit a logarithmic wind profile but wind speeds decay faster particularly closer to thesurface.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, severe storms, Simulation modelling, strong winds}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke} } @conference {bnh-6406, title = {Simulations of radiation heat flux on a structure from a fire in an idealised shrubland }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildland-urban interface areas are growing rapidly. Building standards are required to ensure that the structures built in fire prone areas are resilient to fire. Australian Standard AS 3959 was developed to prescribe construction requirements for houses in bushfire prone areas. The model in AS 3959 is applied to estimate the Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) that is expected on a structure during the nominally worst-case bushfire scenario that the house can experience. Once the BAL is based on the fuel and terrain near the structure, and determines the construction requirements for the structure. AS 3959 is based upon a view-factor model of radiant heat flux, which estimates the level of heat flux expected at the structure.

}, keywords = {building standards, Fire, heat flux, structure, Wildland-urban interface}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6114, title = {Sprinkler systems for the protection of buildings from wildfire}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a significant hazard in many residential areas around the world. Minimisation of the risk to human lives and property requires a multi-faceted approach, involving fuel reduction, fire suppression, and engineering measures to improve the resistance of buildings to the effects of intense radiant heat, burning embers and flame contact. Measures that are recommended to improve the wildfire resistance of buildings typically focus on building materials and design features, as well as fuel sources close to the building. Wildfire sprinkler systems are often promoted as an optional, additional risk-mitigation measure. Typically, such systems are designed to spray water on building external surfaces, surround the building with airborne droplets, and/or wet nearby fuel sources during wildfires.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Fire, fire management, sprinklers}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/617/}, author = {Alan Green} } @article {bnh-6012, title = {State Emergency Service volunteer views on expectations, experiences and motivations}, number = {513}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2017, the University of Western Australia (UWA) began a research collaboration project with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), to investigate ways to improve the retention rates of their emergency service volunteers. The State Emergency Service (SES) volunteers are a vital community within Western Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency volunteering sector due to their profound work and assistance in times of natural disasters and other emergencies. As such, researchers from UWA (Patrick Dunlop, Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e}, and Djurre Holtrop have since relocated to Curtin University) have collaborated to develop and administer a Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) in the form of an online survey. The purpose of this survey was to learn about the SES volunteering experience from the volunteers{\textquoteright} perspectives in order to obtain information on how to improve volunteer recruitment, retention, wellbeing, and diversity within the overall SES volunteering journey.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, research, state emergency service, survey, sustainable volunteering, volunteering}, issn = {513}, author = {Hawa Farid and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-5771, title = {A Statistical Approach to Understanding Canopy Winds over Complex Terrain}, journal = {Environmental Modeling \& Assessment}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {1-20}, abstract = {

Winds that flow within a forest canopy in complex terrain exhibit considerable variability that can have significant consequences for environmental processes such as the spread of bushfires, seed dispersal and transport of pollutants. This variability is still poorly understood, due in part to limited observations of canopy winds over complex terrain, and as such is often unaccounted for in deterministic modelling approaches. Probabilistic representation of wind fields can better characterise variability and build understanding of uncertainty in applications such as bushfire prediction. This study introduces two new, publicly available, datasets that support analyses of canopy winds over complex terrain using novel statistical approaches. Wind fields are characterised using bivariate distributions, representing the response of synoptic winds to changing landscapes, including post-bushfire forest regrowth and varying topography across uniform vegetation. For statistical comparison, non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov style tests are considered. A new test is proposed for the comparison of bivariate circular distributions arising from analyses of wind direction. The study broadly reaffirms established theory while highlighting the variability of canopy winds over complex terrain and the importance of developing statistical techniques that result in a better quantitative understanding of these wind fields and the processes driving them.

}, keywords = {Circular statistics, Flow separation, forest canopy, uncertainty, Wind field observations, wind modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-019-09674-w}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-019-09674-w}, author = {Rachael Quill and Jason J. Sharples and Leesa Sidhu} } @article {bnh-6050, title = {Strengthening and repair of reinforced concrete columns by jacketing: state-of-the-art review}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, pages = {3208}, abstract = {

Sustainability necessitates the protection of infrastructure from any kind of deterioration over the life cycle of the asset. Deterioration in the capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) infrastructure (e.g., bridges, buildings, etc.) may result from localised damage sustained during extreme loading scenarios, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis. In addition, factors such as the corrosion of rebars or ageing may also deteriorate or degrade the capacity of an RC column, thereby necessitating immediate strengthening to either extend or ensure its design life is not limited. The aim of this paper is to provide a state-of-the-art review of various strengthening and repair methods for RC columns proposed by different researchers in the last two decades. The scope of this review paper is limited to jacketing techniques for strengthening and/or repairing both normal- and high-strength RC columns. The paper also identifies potential research gaps and outlines the future direction of research into the strengthening and repair of RC columns.

}, keywords = {Infrastructure, Multi-hazard, sustainability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113208}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3208}, author = {Saim Raza and Muhammad Khan and Scott Menegon and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-6109, title = {A Temporal Framework of Large Wildfire Suppression in Practice, a Qualitative Descriptive Study}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, pages = {884}, abstract = {

Suppression activities on large wildfires are complicated. Existing suppression literature does not take into account this complexity which leaves existing suppression models and measures of resource productivity incomplete. A qualitative descriptive analysis was performed on the suppression activities described in operational documents of 10 large wildfires in Victoria, Australia. A five-stage classification system summarises suppression in the everyday terms of wildfire management. Suppression can be heterogeneous across different sectors with different stages occurring across sectors on the same day. The stages and the underlying 20 suppression tasks identified provide a fundamental description of how suppression resources are being used on large wildfires. We estimate that at least 57\% of resource use on our sample of 10 large wildfires falls outside of current suppression modelling and productivity research.

}, keywords = {wildfire; suppression; fire management; resource use}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100884}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/10/884}, author = {Heather Simpson and Ross Bradstock and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-5565, title = {Ten years after the Black Saturday fires, what have we learnt from post-fire research?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Ten years ago, 173 people lost their lives and more than 2000 homes were destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires. The fires of 7 February 2009 led to a royal commission and significant changes to bushfire management throughout Australia. Research played an important role in the royal commission and subsequent changes. This paper reflects on what was learnt from research into human behaviour and community safety undertaken as part of the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. The research involved interviews with over 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households affected by the fires. This paper reviews findings from subsequent post-fire research to consider the extent to which there have been changes in findings related to community planning, preparedness and responses to bushfire. The review suggests that many of the issues encountered on Black Saturday{\textemdash}limited awareness of and preparedness for bushfire risk, a tendency for leaving (or evacuating) at the last moment and a commitment to defending, even under the highest levels of fire danger{\textemdash}persist, despite major changes to policy and public messaging.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, Emergency management, research}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research/}, author = {J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-5336, title = {Ten years on from the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires - public information during response}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Emergency management can be spoken about in terms of {\textquoteleft}Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery{\textquoteright} (PPRR) or the {\textquoteleft}Comprehensive Approach{\textquoteright} to managing disasters and emergencies. This report is focussed on public information in the response phase.\ 

Identifying the current state of practice and challenges in the public information function of Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) and State Emergency Service (SES) emergency response. Proposing enhancements through a series of recommendations, based on a review of the literature and an online survey completed with public information response staff at TFS and SES.

}, author = {Peter Middleton} } @article {bnh-6260, title = {Tomorrow{\textquoteright}s disasters {\textendash} Embedding foresight principles into disaster risk assessment and treatment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a complex, uncertain and evolving threat to society which changes based on broad drivers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability such as population, economic and climatic change, along with new technologies and social preferences. It also evolves as a function of decisions of public policy and public/private investment which alters future risk profiles. These factors however are often not captured within disaster risk assessments and explicitly excluded from the UN General Assembly definition of a disaster risk assessment which focuses on the current state of risk. This means that 1) we cannot adequately capture changes in risk and risk assessments are out of date as soon as published but also 2) we cannot show the benefit of proactive risk treatments in our risk assessments. This paper therefore outlines a generic, scale-neutral, framework for integrating foresight {\textendash} thinking about the future {\textendash} into risk assessment methodologies. This is demonstrated by its application to a disaster risk assessment of heatwave risk in Tasmania, Australia, and shows how risk changes across three future scenarios and what proactive treatments could be possible mitigating the identified drivers of future risk.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, Risk assessment, Risk treatment, Scenarios}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101437}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305588}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} } @conference {bnh-6397, title = {Towards comprehensive characterisation of flammability and fire danger }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings inform the community and fire managing agencies of fire risk. Fire danger ratings are currently primarily based on fire danger indices (FDIs) calculated using methods that were developed many decades ago. The challenges and issues with these methods are well documented. We aimed to develop a more objective and observation-based approach to fire danger assessment that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia. A preliminary assessment suggested a very good potential of the methodology to formally and objectively incorporate any new fire danger predictors. The method can be combined with forecasted rather than observed weather and fuel conditions to produce forward predictions of expected FDI.

}, keywords = {Fire danger rating, fire factors, risk managemnt}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary and Sami Shah} } @article {bnh-5438, title = {Towards Protective Action: Effective Risk and Warning Communication during Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {467}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
This project plan draws on three years of interdisciplinary research and end-userengagement that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning\ communication during the response and early recovery phases of natural\ hazards. The research (both completed and in-progress) examines existing and\ modified communication to community members and business owners\ that maybe affected by natural hazards. Our research findings have been shared with\ end-users through AFAC Committees, invited presentations, private meetings,\ conferences,\ workshops\ and translated into practice via audits of agency\ messages.\ The original BNHCRC project (2013-2017) focused on\ the pre-decisional\ processes of community members and business owners, particularly their\ exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of emergency warning messages\ in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. This project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process\ {\textemdash}\ environmental cues, social cues, information sources,\ channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver\ characteristics\ {\textemdash}\ inform protective action during the response and early recovery\ phases of natural hazards.
}, keywords = {communications, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards, Warnings}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Lisa Bradley and Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sophie Miller} } @article {bnh-5454, title = {Townsville 2019 flood: insights from the field}, number = {468}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flooding impacted large areas of Townsville from Wednesday 30th January 2019, as a consequence of heavy rainfall across the north of Queensland. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) noted that 370mm of rain fell within 24 hours at Paluma near Townsville. Almost 3300 properties were damaged, thousands were asked to evacuate and there were widespread blackouts . The flooding came in waves, with the initial rainfall causing around 30 cm of flooding in the worst affected areas. This subsided somewhat before more rain fell in the catchment, necessitating the release of water from the Ross River Dam, which led to flood depths of up to 1.6 m over floor height.

Risk Frontiers and Insurance Council of Australia staff visited Townsville on 11th and 12th February, supported by a grant from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. The aim was to undertake unstructured interviews with residents and business operators to gain preliminary insights into impacts and responses to warnings and to examine initial recovery. In total, more than 20 residents and six business operators were spoken to. This briefing note highlights key preliminary themes that arose from this research.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Townsville floods}, author = {Andrew Gissing and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Salom{\'e} Hussein and Jacob Evans and Thomas Mortlock} } @conference {bnh-6509, title = {Transforming through diversity and inclusion capability {\textendash} the pathway to achieving diversity benefits}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key driver for building diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) is to better represent diverse cohorts and ensure EMOs and their communities become more resilient to natural hazards. While EMOs have made some progress, dynamic transformation is required to effectively manage the rapidly changing contexts they and their communities face. Central to this is the need to expand the current service{\textendash}client relationship to become a more inclusive partnership model that builds resilience.
This paper reports on Phase 2 of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, which aimed to develop a D\&I framework for the emergency management sector (EMS). Key aspects are: A process framework to guide organisations by linking strategic objectives to day-today decision making and integrates D\&I practice into organisational systems; Identification and development of specific strategic and people-based capabilities and skills; Management of risks arising as a result of D\&I shocks; and A process to measure and manage progress and assess the benefits derived from investment.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Natural hazards, organisations, resilience, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-6052, title = {Tree recruitment dynamics in fire-prone eucalypt savanna}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, pages = {e02649}, abstract = {

Savanna sites are idealized as exhibiting a demographic {\textquotedblleft}bottleneck{\textquotedblright} physiognomy comprising a lower stratum of abundant resprouting persistent {\textquotedblleft}juveniles{\textquotedblright} (albeit of indeterminate age), a mid-stratum comprising relatively few released {\textquotedblleft}saplings,{\textquotedblright} and a canopy-layer cohort of {\textquotedblleft}adults.{\textquotedblright} The magnitude and frequency of disturbance is considered to influence the critical transition from juvenile into adult phases. Under fire-prone Australian savanna conditions, an extensive suite of both observational and manipulative studies have explored the responses of tree recruitment to fire disturbances. These studies oftentimes have produced seemingly highly disparate responses, particularly with respect to the differential responses of relatively fast-growing eucalypts versus non-eucalypts under different fire regime, and overstory competition, conditions. This study contrasts the responses of tree recruitment height classes to (1) the effects of total canopy removal from severe Cyclone Monica in 2006 over a subsequent 10-yr period, (2) with observations from long-term monitoring sites under relatively stable overstory conditions at Litchfield National Park over a six-year period, (3) under ambient, frequent fire occurrence (mean \> 0.5 fires/yr) at both locales including relatively severe late dry season fires. Recruitment at both study sites was represented mostly by resprouting, clonally reproducing juvenile trees \<2 m tall, around half of which died over respective assessment periods. At post-cyclone assessment plots, there was substantial release of eucalypts, including within the first five years, into the \>5 m height class, with negligible corresponding release of non-eucalypts. At Litchfield plots, there was negligible release of both eucalypts and non-eucalypts. In discussion, we contrast these results with findings from relevant regional studies. We contend that collective disparate observations feasibly can be reconciled as reflecting significant interactions between fire regime characteristics and variable site overstory competition effects, such that the rate of recruitment of fast-growing savanna eucalypt individuals into the midstory is relatively independent of the fire regime, but is significantly regulated by resource competition interactions especially with the overstory, whereas recruitment of non-eucalypts is relatively independent of overstory competitive effects, but is suppressed under fire regimes dominated by frequent, especially severe fires.

}, keywords = {Australia; canopy competition; cyclone disturbance; density dependence; eucalypt; fire disturbance; fire regime; juveniles; recruitment dynamics; resprouts; saplings; savanna.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2649}, url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.2649}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Jay Evans and Harry MacDermott and Brocklehurst, Peter and Schatz, Jon and Erin Lynch and Yates, Cameron P. and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-5425, title = {Understanding Post-Fire Fuel Dynamics using Burnt Permanent Forest Plots Report}, number = {461}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel loads within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in mature wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.\ 

}, keywords = {ecology, ecosystems, Fire, Tasmanian fires}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6637, title = {Understanding the nature of abrupt decadal shifts in a changing climate}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planning for future climate risk tends to incorporate assumptions of smoothly accelerating\ climate change, around which unchanged variability constitutes the risk boundaries. This\ constitutes hypothesis H1 {\textendash} forced warming and natural variability evolve gradually and\ independently and the climate response is trend-like. Against this, there is evidence for H2 {\textendash}\ forced warming interacts with natural variability and the climate response includes abrupt\ steps. Earlier than expected breaching of risk bounds follows from H2.\ 

New automation tools, and post-detection tests find and characterise step-like regime onsets\ in temperatures.\ 

With these tools I show that step-like temperature regime shifts are detectable at all spatial\ scales at the land and ocean surface, and in the vertical temperature structure of the ocean.\ Based on published climate models shifts respond to warming by becoming more intense,\ wider-spread and more frequent. Regimes are regional, differ qualitatively between land and\ ocean, align with natural variability coincident with known bio-physical shifts. Two, circa 1976\ and 1996, align with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, involving rapid vertical ocean\ restructuring. One, 1968 in the Southern Hemisphere ocean does not, and 1986 in the\ Northern Hemisphere reflects atmospheric reorganisation.

H2 is strongly supported by the findings. Step-like warming dominates trends, increasingly so\ at finer scale.

}, keywords = {climate, Climate change, decadal shifts, risk management}, author = {Ricketts, J} } @article {bnh-6167, title = {Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {14}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, abstract = {

Australian fire weather shows spatiotemporal variability on interannual and multi-decadal time scales. We investigate the climate factors that drive this variability using 39 station-based historical time series of the seasonal 90th-percentile of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) extending from 1973 through 2017. Using correlation analyses, we examine the relationship of these time series to the El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), considering both concurrent and time-lagged relationships. Additionally, longer term behaviour of the time series using linear trend analysis is discussed in the context of the climate drivers, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and anthropogenic climate change. The results show that ENSO is the main driver for interannual variability of fire weather, as defined by FFDI in this study, for most of Australia. In general, El Ni{\~n}o-like conditions lead to more extreme fire weather, with this effect stronger in eastern Australia. However, there are significant regional variations to this general rule. In NSW, particularly along the central coast, negative SAM is a primary influence for elevated fire weather in late-winter and spring. In the southeast (VIC and TAS), the El Ni{\~n}o-like impact is exacerbated when positive IOD conditions are simultaneously observed. The spring conditions are key, and strongly influence what is observed during the following summer. On longer time scales (45 years), linear trends are upward at most stations; this trend is strongest in the southeast and during the spring. The positive trends are not driven by the trends in the climate drivers and they are not consistent with hypothesized impacts of the IPO, either before or after its late-1990s shift to the cold phase. We propose that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of the trend, through both higher mean temperatures and potentially through associated shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns. Variations from interannual factors are generally larger in magnitude than the trend effects observed to date.

}, keywords = {fire weather; variability; climate drivers; climate change}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222328}, url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0222328\&ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_10_29_2019_23_20)\&mc_cid=831ea64e9e\&mc_eid=73e0665bda}, author = {Sarah Harris} } @article {bnh-5686, title = {UNHaRMED framework report: a co-creation approach for the development and use of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction.}, number = {484}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report proposes a generic approach for the development and use of decision support systems (DSSs) for disaster risk reduction (DRR). At the core of the DSS is an integrated model, consisting of a land use model and risk models for four hazards, including flooding, coastal inundation, bushfire and earthquake. The inputs to these models are affected by a number of external drivers that change over time, including demographics, climate change and economics, as well as a number of mitigation options, including spatial planning, land management, structural measures and community-based resilience efforts. The outputs from the integrated model include risk maps for the individual hazards that change over time, as well as cost-benefit, social and environmental indicators used for assessing the impact of risk reduction portfolios.

}, keywords = {DDR, decision support system, Disaster management, framework, UNHaRMED}, issn = {484}, author = {Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and Roel Vanhout and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-6141, title = {A universal approach for evaluating earthquake safety level based on societal fatality risk}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, pages = {1-24}, abstract = {

Residual risk exists in our buildings even if they were designed in conformance with modern codes of practice. Various approaches have been implemented or proposed in the last decade for setting risk-based performance requirements for seismic design of building structures. However, there is insufficient consideration about the aggregated risk for society, which could be significant especially for a densely populated metropolitan city. This paper introduces a rational and universal approach for evaluating the adequacy of structural safety requirements by comparing societal risk functions based on probabilistic loss assessment with a proposed regulatory requirement that aims to limit the mortality rate to {\textquotedblleft}as low as reasonably practicable\ (ALARP){\textquotedblright}. The proposed approach is then applied to Melbourne, Australia, in a case study, which shows that the earthquake fatality risk for the society appears to be unacceptable. The outcome can be used for justification of a seismic retrofitting policy or a required change of the design code level. The proposed scheme is also applicable to other natural hazards and for safety engineering applications generally.

}, keywords = {Building structure, Collapse, Earthquake fatality, F{\textendash}N, Seismic safety, Societal risk}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00727-9}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-019-00727-9}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and James Daniell and Friedemann Wenzel and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-6221, title = {Urban planning: historical changes integrating bushfire risk management in Victoria}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {60-66}, abstract = {

Bushfires represent an increased risk for people and properties in exposed urban areas. The integration of bushfire risk management considerations into urban planning is one of the approaches used to address this challenge. This paper summarises the key changes in urban planning and building regulations that were introduced in Victoria over time to minimise the effects of bushfire on settlements. These have generally occurred within four main eras, being the independent origins of planning and bushfire risk management, the progressive emergence of bushfire risk management into urban planning between the late 1970s and the early 1990s, the formalisation of bushfire risk management via urban planning with the Wildfire Management Overlay in 1997 and the 2011 reforms associated with the Bushfire Management Overlay and its following adjustments. Advancements in urban planning regulation have usually occurred after bushfire events that inflicted significant losses on communities. These changes represent an ongoing trend towards the integration of bushfire risk reduction measures into urban planning mechanisms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, risk management, urban planning}, url = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March and Justin Leonard and Mark Holland and Blanchi, Raphaele} } @article {bnh-6137, title = {Use of Macroseismic Intensity Data to Validate a Regionally Adjustable Ground Motion Prediction Model}, journal = {Geosciences }, volume = {9}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, chapter = {422}, abstract = {

In low-to-moderate seismicity (intraplate) regions where locally recorded strong motion data are too scare for conventional regression analysis, stochastic simulations based on seismological modelling have often been used to predict ground motions of future earthquakes. This modelling methodology has been practised in Central and Eastern North America (CENA) for decades. It is cautioned that ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) that have been developed for use in CENA might not always be suited for use in another intraplate region because of differences in the crustal structure. This paper introduces a regionally adjustable GMPE, known as the component attenuation model (CAM), by which a diversity of crustal conditions can be covered in one model. Input parameters into CAM have been configured in the same manner as a seismological model, as both types of models are based on decoupling the spectral properties of earthquake ground motions into a generic source factor and a regionally specific path factor (including anelastic and geometric attenuation factors) along with a crustal factor. Unlike seismological modelling, CAM is essentially a GMPE that can be adapted readily for use in different regions (or different areas within a region) without the need of undertaking any stochastic simulations, providing that parameters characterising the crustal structure have been identified. In addressing the challenge of validating a GMPE for use in an area where instrumental data are scarce, modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data inferred from peak ground velocity values predicted by CAM are compared with records of MMI of past earthquake events, as reported in historical archives. South-Eastern Australia (SEA) and South-Eastern China (SEC) are the two study regions used in this article for demonstrating the viability of CAM as a ground motion prediction tool in an intraplate environment.

}, keywords = {Attenuation, crustal model, GMPE, intraplate region, MMI, seismic hazard}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9100422 }, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/10/422}, author = {Yuxiang Tang and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-5684, title = {Use of remote sensing measurements and data assimilation techniques to improve estimates of landscape dryness}, number = {482}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire intensity, spread rate and ignition are very sensitive to the fuel dryness which in turn is strongly linked to soil moisture deficit. Though the value of soil moisture deficit in predicting fire danger has been long established, very few fire danger rating systems employ a comprehensive methodology to estimate it. Most fire danger rating systems use very simple empirical water balance models which are found to have errors. Hence they are poor drivers of the sophisticated fire models used operationally to manage and warn for dangerous fire conditions and spread. With advances in the science of measurement, in the form of satellite remote sensing, and in prediction, in the form of physically based land surface models, soil moisture can now be better analysed and predicted. Neither observations nor models give a complete picture of the soil moisture state in isolation, however. Data assimilation combines observational and model information optimally, yielding increasingly consistent and complete estimates of soil moisture. In this paper, we touch on the various operational satellite observations available. We also discuss land surface
data assimilation methods used widely in soil moisture research and operations. This report is prepared for those with very limited technical and scientific background in satellite remote sensing or data assimilation. Hence complex mathematical and physical formulations are carefully omitted. However, the problems discussed here are highly non-trivial and inter-desciplinary, with much progress made in recent decades. Hence some technicalities are unavoidable. Also, the discussion is not intended to be complete. Our intention is to highlight, especially to the emergency management community, soil moisture estimation methods that may not be well known outside the scientific community.

}, keywords = {dryness, fire rate, fire spread, Landscape ecology, Soil moisture deficit}, issn = {482}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-6523, title = {Utilisation of fire spread simulators to assess power network fire risk }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Western Power is a Western Australian State Government owned power network and energy corporation. In 2013, an external review commissioned by Western Power, recommended the development of an improved bushfire risk map for the network based on the consequences of potential network bushfire ignitions. In response to the review Western Power entered into a joint collaboration with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) and Landgate to develop a multiple ignition point based bushfire risk analysis product suitable for use on the power network across the south west of Western Australia.

The objective of this project is to assist Western Power in prioritising their asset renewal and maintenance budget to ensure they{\textquoteright}ve addressed sites with the highest potential consequences, realising better public safety out-comes. The utilisation of the fire spread simulator system Aurora, to model the consequences of a bushfire ignition from power poles and wires has been investigated to provide this intelligence. Western Power maintains approximately 800,000 power poles within the south west of Western Australia. The development of an appropriate methodology to provide the required intelligence for the prioritisation of appropriate asset renewal and maintenance implementation programs in response to the risk of bushfire ignition, has proven to be challenging.

Aurora is a web-based bushfire spread prediction system that simulates the probable direction, intensity and rate of bushfire spread. The simulator considers ignition location, vegetation, time of last burn, fuel accumulation models, forecasted weather, drought factor, grassland curing and slope to calculate fire behaviour and spread. For this project, the simulator architecture uses 99.5th percentile Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) weather conditions for each of the 8 cardinal wind directions to produce 6 million fire spread
simulations. These simulations together with a building location dataset are used to estimate asset numbers that could potentially be impacted by a fire running for one hour, from each power pole. Using this methodology maintenance can be prioritised for individual power poles based on the potential impact of a bushfire caused by a fault.

The successful completion of this project will result in a welldeveloped methodology, Information Communication and Technology (ICT) system infrastructure and potential consequence datasets with the potential to utilise multiple activities and assets as potential ignition sources, therefore providing DFES with enhanced evidence-based datasets to support strategic decision making for early community warning and preparedness.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Fire risk, prediction system, risk management, simulator, weather conditions}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Parker, Jackson and Allen, Adrian} } @article {bnh-5955, title = {The value of disaster research: a review of the literature}, number = {505}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Increasingly, funders, governments, stakeholders and end-users expect to see tangible evidence that an investment in research is a worthy use of resources; that it informs policy and practice; or to justify the provision of current and future funding. The value of research is measured by assessing the extent to which research has impact. Research impact is defined as {\textquotedblleft}a demonstrable contribution that research makes to the economy, society, culture, national security, public policy or services, health, the environment, or quality of life, beyond contributions to academia{\textquotedblright} (Alla et al.). These value-outcomes are achieved via the pathways of knowledge generation, capacity building, creation of scientific methods, researcher and end-user network collaborations, and policymaking support. Bushfire and natural hazard research evidence is utilised by emergency and fire agencies, governments, policymakers, and householders and landowners.

Research impact assessment is undertaken with the aim of addressing advocacy, analysis, accountability and allocation. It is also a valuable tool for use whilst planning research to ensure a greater impact. A major problem associated with research impact assessment is that of attribution: it is extremely difficult to assign causality for any outcome to a specific piece of research. This difficulty is exacerbated by the usually large time lag between research findings and policy impact, behaviour change, or change in environment or economy.

Various frameworks have been developed to assess the impact of research; whilst the majority of those reviewed were developed for the healthcare sector, there are more broad frameworks which have evolved to encompass a breadth of research areas and level of research. Impact has generally been categorised as economic (direct influence on the economy of the researcher, agency, population, or government as well as knowledge, market and network spill overs); academic (influence within academia, researcher and end-user collaborations, capacity building, training and leadership); and social or societal (a broad category including social values, national security, influence on policy and decision making).

Economic impact has largely been measured using cost-benefit analysis or a return on investment approach (including a social return on investment). Over the effect life cycle, public research is valued at 3 to 8 times the initial investment. Median annual rates of return are between 20\% and 50\% but this varies considerably between sectors. (Georghiou (2015)) . At an aggregate level, the return on investment in Australian disaster research has been estimated at between $1.17 to $1.40 for each dollar invested (Access Economics, 2003, Access Economics, 2008) . As most of the research within the natural hazard sector does not produce goods or services which pass through a market, a non-market method of valuing outcomes is required. The application of public value theory has created methodologies including public value mapping to understand the non-economic and non-scientific goals of research; that is, the core values (public values) of the research.

There is no specific framework for assessing the value of research in the bushfire and wildfire context, however adaptation of the {\textquotedblleft}pathways to research impact{\textquotedblright} tool created by Cruz Rivera et al. (2017) may be helpful in achieving appropriate impact measurement.\ 

}, keywords = {cost-effective, economics, Emergency management, Natural disasters, Policy, risk management}, issn = {505}, author = {Ken Strahan and Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-6168, title = {Valuing non-market economic impacts from natural hazards}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {99}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {1131-1161}, abstract = {

Prioritising investments to minimise or mitigate natural hazards such as wildfires and storms is of increasing importance to hazard managers. Prioritisation of this type can be strengthened by considering benefit and cost impacts. To evaluate benefits and costs, managers require an understanding of both the tangible economic benefits and costs of mitigation decisions, and the often intangible values associated with environmental, social and health-related outcomes. We review the state of non-market valuation studies that provide monetary equivalent estimates for the intangible benefits and costs that can be affected by natural hazard events or their mitigation. We discuss whether managers can usefully call upon these available estimates, with a view to using the benefit transfer approach to include non-market values in economic decision frameworks. Additional context-specific non-market valuation studies are required to provide a more accurate selection of value estimates for natural hazard decision making. Decision making would benefit from considering these values explicitly in prioritising natural hazard investments.

}, keywords = {Non-market values; Intangible values; Willingness to pay; Natural hazard mitigation; Prioritising investments}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03761-7}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03761-7}, author = {Abbie Rogers and Fiona Dempster and Jacob Hawkins and Robert Johnston and Peter Boxall and John Rolfe and Marit Kragt and Michael Burton and David J Pannell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5695, title = {Valuing volunteers: better understanding the primary motives for volunteering in Australian emergency services}, volume = {Master of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Volunteers are the lifeblood of emergency services in Australia, and are integral to the nation{\textquoteright}s emergency management capabilities and overall disaster resilience. The concurrence of an increase in the risks posed by a range of climate change-related natural hazards and a decline in formal volunteering rates threatens Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency preparedness.

The Valuing Volunteers Study aims to provide a better understanding of the primary motives for formal volunteering in Australian emergency services, and the broader contemporary influences on such important civic participation. The research aims to generate evidence-based outputs that inform policies and practices, with the ultimate goal of maximising the retention of emergency service volunteers.

}, keywords = {Community safety, Emergency management, emergency services, SES volunteers, volunteers}, url = {https://apo.org.au/node/244761}, author = {Bill Calcutt} } @article {bnh-5388, title = {The Vegetation Structure Perpendicular Index (VSPI): A forest condition index for wildlife predictions}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {224}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {

Wildfires are a major\ natural hazard, causing substantial damage to infrastructure as well as being a risk to lives and homes. An understanding of their progression and behaviour is necessary to reduce risks and to develop operational management strategies in the event of an active fire. Many empirical fire-spread models have been developed to predict the spread and overall behaviour of a wildfire, based on a range of parameters such as weather and fuel conditions. However, these parameters may not be available with sufficient accuracy or spatiotemporal resolution to provide reliable fire spread predictions. Fuel condition data include variables such as vegetation quantity, structure and moisture content and, in the event of previous wildfires, the burn severity and stage of ecosystem recovery. In this study, an index called the\ Vegetation Structure\ Perpendicular Index (VSPI) is introduced. The VSPI utilises the short-wave infrared reflectance in bands centred at 1.6 and 2.2 μm, essentially representing the amount and structure of the vegetation{\textquoteright}s woody biomass (as opposed to the photosynthetic activity and moisture content). The VSPI is quantified as the divergence from a linear regression between the two bands in a time series and represents vegetation disturbance and recovery more reliably than indices such as the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR) and\ Normalised Difference Vegetation Index\ (NDVI). The VSPI index generally shows minor inter-annual variability and stronger post-wildfire detection of disturbance over a longer period than NBR and\ NDVI. The index is developed and applied to major wildfire events within eucalypt forests throughout southern Australia to estimate both burn severity and time to recovery. The VSPI can provide an improved information layer for fire risk evaluation and operational predictions of wildfire behaviour.

}, keywords = {Forest condition, Landsat, Vegetation recovery, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300586?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Andrea Massetti and Christoph R{\"u}diger and Marta Yebra and James Hilton} } @article {bnh-5622, title = {Volunteering research in Australia: A narrative review}, journal = {Australian Journal of Psychology}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Australian research on volunteering is rich and diverse, but also increasingly fragmented. In an attempt to promote a more integrated study of volunteering, we review volunteering research conducted in Australia, using volunteering journey as a framework. Specifically, we summarise literature on volunteer characteristics, motivations, benefits, psychological contract, commitment, and withdrawal.

}, keywords = {benefits, motivation, narrative review, volunteer retention, volunteering, withdrawal}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12251}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajpy.12251}, author = {Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-5625, title = {Vulnerability Functions for RC Shear Wall Buildings in Australia}, journal = {Earthquake Spectra}, volume = {35}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {27}, chapter = {333-360}, abstract = {

This research investigates the development of analytical fragility functions for reinforced concrete shear wall buildings in Australia. A building stock for the city of Melbourne is used in conducting an assessment of these types of structures. The assessment uses the best information available for selecting the building parameters applicable to the low-to-moderate seismic region, site soil class, expected earthquake ground motions, and site response. The capacity spectrum method is used to derive vulnerability functions for low-, mid-, and high-rise reinforced concrete shear wall buildings. Although there is a paucity of earthquake damage data available in Australia, some comparisons are made using the results from the fragility functions derived here to the damage data from the Newcastle earthquake in 1989.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Emergency management, engineering}, doi = {10.1193/120717EQS251M}, url = {https://www.earthquakespectra.org/doi/abs/10.1193/120717EQS251M}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-5478, title = {Walking together: a decolonising experiment in bushfire management on Dja Dja Wurrung country}, journal = {Cultural Geographies}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Within certain settler colonial nations, Indigenous peoples are increasingly becoming present and influential in the agencies legally responsible for the management of their ancestral territories, their environments and their hazards. On the Australian continent, for example, Aboriginal peoples are becoming more formally involved in the management of bushfire (or {\textquoteleft}wildfire{\textquoteright} elsewhere). This environmental phenomenon is at once of profound cultural significance to many Aboriginal peoples and a major natural hazard to human life and property, managed by an extensive professional bureaucracy of settler government agencies. Drawing upon a case study of collaborative bushfire management between Dja Dja Wurrung peoples and settler bushfire management agencies on Dja Dja Wurrung country (or, ancestral territory) in the southeast Australian state of Victoria, this article argues for an understanding of such collaborations as {\textquoteleft}decolonising experiments{\textquoteright}. For geographers and others, this means paying attention to the open-ended character of collaborative initiatives, whether and how they materially improve the position of Indigenous peoples, as well as whether and how they give rise to new resources and strategies for the creation of other decolonising futures.

}, keywords = {Australia, collaboration, environment, indigenous, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1474474018821419}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/qtacPrmvVqKUhMciuDJa/full}, author = {Timothy Neale and Rodney Carter and Trent Nelson and Mick Bourke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6162, title = {Wellbeing of firefighters: the impact of individual factors, potentially traumatic event exposure, and operational and organisational factors on mental health outcomes}, volume = {Doctor of Psychiatry}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, school = {University of Melbourne}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Aims:
This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of the common mental health disorders associated with increased exposure to potentially traumatic events in career and volunteer firefighters, and to identify which individual, acute stressor, operational and organisational factors predict mental health outcomes.

Method: Four Australian services participated in a prospective study, with 335 firefighters completing an online survey twice (12-months apart). The survey comprised demographic and fire service information, self-report measures for PTSD, depression, anxiety, alcohol use, exposure to personal trauma and life stressors, number and types of firefighter-related potentially traumatic events experienced in the previous 12-months, job satisfaction related to operational and organisational characteristics of their role, and a measure of the priority their fire service placed on their psychological wellbeing. Structured clinical interviews were conducted with a sample of survey respondents to assess for PTSD, depression, generalised anxiety disorder and alcohol use disorder.

Results: From 297 clinical interviews (91 career firefighters and 206 volunteer firefighters), 24\% (n = 22) of the career firefighters met diagnosis for any psychiatric disorder. Of these, 3\% met criteria for PTSD, 5\% for depression, 4\% for generalised anxiety disorder, and almost 12\% for alcohol use disorder. The primary regression analyses indicated the following findings for the career firefighters. The main variable associated with each of the four disorders was the respective level of symptoms at baseline. In addition, exposure to more potentially traumatic events in the previous 12 months contributed to, and high job satisfaction associated with the operational aspects of their role protected them against the development of PTSD and depression. Finally, the findings indicated that experiencing more recent life events in the previous 12 months and rank (being a firefighter) contributed to more symptoms of Alcohol Use Disorder. From the interviews 17\% (n = 35) of the volunteer firefighters met diagnosis for any psychiatric disorder. Of these, 2\% met criteria for PTSD, 4\% for depression, 5\% for generalised anxiety disorder, and 6\% for alcohol use disorder. The primary regression analyses indicated that the only predictor of PTSD, generalised anxiety disorder and alcohol use disorder was the respective baseline level for each disorder. The main predictors of depression were baseline level of symptoms of depression and experiencing more recent life events in the previous 12 months.

Conclusions: The relatively low prevalence rates for the career and volunteer firefighters in this study indicate their reasonably good mental health across the four disorders. The rates compare favourably with other firefighter studies and are comparable with the rates in the general population for most disorders. An exception to this was volunteer firefighters{\textquoteright} high rate of alcohol dependence and low rate of PTSD. The findings indicate the importance of fire services developing cultures that support and encourage the early identification and management of symptoms and have systems in place to monitor the types of and frequency of firefighters{\textquoteright} exposure to potentially traumatic events. Finally, particularly for the career firefighters, the findings highlight the protective nature of high job satisfaction associated with operational characteristics of their role and reduced mental health symptoms, and the importance for firefighters and managers to recognise and address reductions in job satisfaction.

}, keywords = {career, firefighter, mental health, volunteer}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230671}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/230671}, author = {Heather Bancroft} } @article {bnh-5573, title = {What do we really mean by {\textquoteleft}floodwater{\textquoteright} and is it ever ok to enter?}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Flood safety messages used extensively and consistently in Australia are {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Never drive, ride or walk through floodwater{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Don{\textquoteright}t play in flood water{\textquoteright}. These messages are clear, unambiguous and definitive. The problem is, people continue to enter floodwater.

In partnership with State Emergency Services across Australia, we are looking at flood risk communication and examining the two behaviours most closely linked to flood fatalities; driving into and recreating in floodwater. This is part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Flood Risk Communication research.

}, keywords = {communication, Emergency management, flood risk, floodwater}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-what-do-we-really-mean-by-floodwater-and-is-it-ever-ok-to-enter/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes} } @conference {bnh-6400, title = {What{\textquoteright}s wrong and what needs fixing? Stakeholder perspectives on making the future of emergency volunteering}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The modern landscape of emergency volunteering in Australia is characterised by far-reaching change, converging challenges and emerging new opportunities. In this context, a key concern within the emergency management sector today is how the changing landscape threatens the long-term sustainability of Australia{\textquoteright}s formal emergency management volunteer capacity. Some volunteer-based emergency management organisations are responding to the changing landscape with new volunteer strategies, models and management practices. While the pace of change has picked up in recent years, overall it has been slow.

This paper posits that greater engagement in frame reflexive learning and practice can help enable further and faster adaption of emergency volunteering models and approaches to better meet the challenges and opportunities presented by the changing landscape. It aims to support frame reflexive learning and practice by articulating the different ways that {\textquoteright}what{\textquoteright}s wrong and what needs fixing{\textquoteright} is framed among a range of emergency volunteering stakeholder groups. The results are based on interviews and questionnaires conducted with over 180 stakeholders, including representatives from emergency service agencies, disaster welfare organisations, volunteer representative groups, volunteering peak bodies, local governments, and community sector organisations. The paper identifies and describes four key frames currently in use by stakeholders: Competition, Professionalisation, Expectation-Capacity Gap, and Culture Clash. It concludes that deeper and wider collaboration at the sector and community level is needed to enable frame reflexive practice through which multiple frames and their implications can be made more visible and a wider range of options for addressing complex cross-boundary volunteering problems revealed.

}, keywords = {Capability, Emergency management, voulnteering}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5650, title = {Where to prescribe burn: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning close to houses}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used in Australia as a tool to manage fire risk and protect assets. A key challenge is deciding how to arrange the burns to generate the highest benefits to society. Studies have shown that prescribed burning in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can reduce the risk of house loss due to wildfires, but the costs and benefits of different arrangements for prescribed burning treatments have rarely been estimated. In this study, we use three different models to explore the costs and benefits of modifying the spatial arrangement of prescribed burns on public land, using the south-west of Western Australia as a case study. We simulate two hypothetical scenarios: landscape treatments and WUI treatments. We evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of each scenario and compare the results from the three models, highlighting the management implications of each model. Results indicate that intensifying prescribed burning treatments in public land in the WUI achieves a greater reduction in damages compared with applying the majority of the treatments in rural areas. However, prescribed burning in the WUI is significantly more expensive and, despite additional benefits gained from this strategy, in most cases it is not the most economically efficient strategy.

}, keywords = {benefit-cost analysis, fire management, fuel treatment, house loss, Prescribed burning, preventative mitigation, risk, trade-off, wildland fire economics, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18192}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18192}, author = {Veronique Florec and Michael Burton and David J Pannell and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @conference {bnh-6403, title = {WHS 2.0 World Health and Safety: integrating disaster risk reduction and sustainable development into every workplace using the Sendai Framework, Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A proposed integrative conceptual framework has been developed for the Australian context to promote understanding, uptake and action toward the Paris Agreement for Climate Change, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development using the National Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. It is hoped that through compatibility with the existing Australian Work Health and Safety culture, this integrative framework can help promote understanding, uptake and action. WHS 2.0: World Health and Safety is designed to {\textquoteleft}bolt{\textquoteright} disaster risk reduction values and actions onto existing Work Health and Safety values and infrastructure in ways that are straight forward to understand. Implementation of such a conceptual framework will have positive impacts across society in terms of improved social, cultural, environmental and financial resilience.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, safety, SDGs, Sendai Framework}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Heidi Chappelow} } @conference {bnh-6291, title = {Wind-terrain effects on firebrand dynamics}, booktitle = {23rd International Congress on modelling and Simulation}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Despite its importance in bushfire propagation, firebrand transport and the spotting process are still poorly understood, and there is no definitive model that can adequately emulate the spotting process in general. The dynamics of firebrands are difficult to predict due to the complex flow structure resulting from the interaction of a buoyant plume with a boundary layer wind field. Understanding the nature of this flow structure, especially for complex terrain, is essential for determining the likely path of firebrands and subsequent distributions of new spot fires and risk levels on structures downwind from the fire.

Although several prior computational modelling studies have carried out investigations of firebrand transport, the effect of the terrain has not previously been taken into account. It is well known that topography can significantly affect ember generation. For example, the enhanced intensity of a fire running up a steep slope can generate a large number of embers. More generally, terrain-modified flows and the strong turbulence associated with leeward slopes and flow around other prominent topographic features may have a pronounced effect on the transport of firebrands. Moreover, modes of dynamic fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread and eruptive fire spread in canyons involve a coupling between the fire, the terrain and the prevailing winds and so can affect the rate at which firebrands are produced as well as their subsequent transport.

In this study we use a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and Lagrangian particle approach to model the transport of firebrands. The model is applied to two different terrain scenarios to investigate the flow dynamics, firebrand trajectories and landing patterns resulting from the interaction with the terrain. The first scenario is a line of fire on the lee slope of a ridge burning perpendicular to an incident wind flow. The second scenario is a fire burning in a canyon aligned with the wind. The simulations indicate that the addition of terrain adds a further level of complexity to the flows generated by interaction between the wind and the fire. The terrain appears to modify the counter-rotating vortex pair in the plume structure. For the fire in the lee of the ridge line, the wind-terrain interaction resulted in a flattening and tilting of the counter-rotating vortex pair and enhanced regions of recirculation at the edges of the fire, which were conducive to lateral transport of embers. For the fire in the canyon, the channelling of the winds up the canyon resulted in the formation of a single jet-like vortex transporting firebrands upwards and over the top of the canyon. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the shape and alignment of the canyon, which forces the vortex pair to merge into a single vortex.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Hydrograph model, parametrization, precipitation, runoff formation processes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2019.H7.hilton}, url = {https://mssanz.org.au/modsim2019/H7/hilton.pdf}, author = {James Hilton and Jason J. Sharples and Garg, N and Murray Rudman and Swedosh, W and Commins, D} } @article {bnh-5136, title = {Advances in active fire detection using a multi-temporal method for next-generation geostationary satellite data}, journal = {International Journal of Digital Earth}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, abstract = {

A vital component of fire detection from remote sensors is the accurate estimation of the background temperature of an area in fire{\textquoteright}s absence, assisting in identification and attribution of fire activity. New geostationary sensors increase the data available to describe background temperature in the temporal domain. Broad area methods to extract the expected diurnal cycle of a pixel using this temporally rich data have shown potential for use in fire detection. This paper describes an application of a method for priming diurnal temperature fitting of imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager. The BAT method is used to provide training data for temperature fitting of target pixels, to which thresholds are applied to detect thermal anomalies in 4 μm imagery over part of Australia. Results show the method detects positive thermal anomalies with respect to the diurnal model in up to 99\% of cases where fires are also detected by Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellite active fire products. In absence of LEO active fire detection, but where a burned area product recorded fire-induced change, this method also detected anomalous activity in up to 75\% of cases. Potential improvements in detection time of up to 6 h over LEO products are also demonstrated.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2018.1497099}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538947.2018.1497099?journalCode=tjde20}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Andrew Skidmore} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5323, title = {Advancing public health in the context of natural hazards: normalising preparedness within a framework of adapted protection motivation theory}, volume = {PhD}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, school = {Western Sydney University}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This research sought to discover and recommend proactive strategies to strengthen and improve human safety and well-being in a changing climate of natural hazards. This thesis documents the rationale, process and outcomes of that research. People{\textquoteright}s ability to navigate their daily lives within an environment of worsening natural hazards is an adaptive public health and safety priority - given the predicted global increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There is an urgent need to strengthen and normalise people{\textquoteright}s preparedness behaviour, and to connect it with an unequivocal understanding of the benefits of such changes. Enhancing people{\textquoteright}s adaptive responses will help to avoid, or at least minimise, associated human trauma and tragedy. That is the aim of this research. Achieving positive, adaptive change requires proactive medium to longer term public policy planning and implementation of strategies leading to considered, appropriate response choices and desired protective behaviour as social norms. Demands upon individuals, families, communities and workplaces are high in the complexity of 21st century life: adapting to narrow the bushfire (or other natural hazard) awareness-preparedness gap {\textendash} to become fire-fit {\textendash} requires a re-ordering of priorities so that fire-fitness becomes a societal-wide, integrated routine {\textendash} as routine as buying groceries or fuelling a car. This predominantly pragmatic qualitative research used the socio-cognitive Protection Motivation Theory (described by Rogers in 1975) in the context of bushfire natural hazards with the ultimate aim of reducing human morbidity and mortality, and concurrently promoting positive physical and psychological capacity. The study considered data across and within two demographic groups {\textendash} emergency responders and the owners of any kind and any number of animals. It sought to 1. determine and discover how casualties to life, property and the environment, including the physical and psychological health of people, their microclimates and livelihoods, can be reduced and minimised while building a culture of preparedness as an integral part of daily life, and 2. help negate wider perceptions of preparedness as a difficult, time-consuming task which although on nearly everyone{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}to do{\textquoteright} list is frequently not prioritised. The major qualitative phase (phase 1) was followed by a minor quantitative phase (phase 2) in the form of a pilot survey (discussed in Chapter 7) that investigated farmers{\textquoteright} bushfire experiences and management strategies. The pilot survey was conducted with a view to determining topics requiring further research, as well as identifying knowledge and learning translatable to novice landowners. This thesis is presented as a series of six papers {\textendash} four published (P1-P4), two submitted (SP1, SP2). Each paper addresses particular research questions, noted in the box at the beginning of each chapter, and each published paper is followed by a connecting narrative designed to convey the momentum, flow and logic of the research progression. The order of the papers presented in the thesis follows the chronology of the research. Paper 1 critically explores the literature and investigates Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as a framework. Paper 2 provides an overview of the qualitative data and identifies the focus for the next stage of analysis. Paper 3 discusses public policy and leads in to Paper 4 which proposes a number of innovative and practical strategies to help improve fire-fitness for individuals and across communities. The following two papers supplement and complement the four published papers. SP1 contains more detail concerning public policy initiatives. SP2 is essentially P1 in practice and demonstrates how PMT can be usefully applied to achieve the aim of the research - to reduce human morbidity and mortality in natural hazard events. Thus, the reader is encouraged to read SP1 following P3, and SP2 following P4. Readers{\textquoteright} attention is drawn particularly to the Results, Interpretative Analysis and Discussion sections in SP1 and SP2, where additional information on policy and how PMT was expanded and applied may be found. Journal selection for the published papers was actively {\textendash} and flexibly - considered from the beginning of the project with the selection of suitable journals narrowing as the focus of the research itself became more specific. Table 1, Journal selection and chronology of publication, details this process. The research results indicate desired outcomes are indeed achievable by engaging a bold, innovative willingness to move beyond standard conservatism in the sector, and demonstrating a commitment to trial and evaluate recommendations. The wellbeing and safety of people in natural hazards is increasingly a public health issue. This thesis proposes proactive initiatives that affirmatively and assertively respond to meeting the parallel escalation of the inherent danger of natural hazards in a changing climate without alienating public sentiment. It also identifies the need for further research to fill a gaping omission in the literature regarding cropland fires - with respect to crop types and placement, how different crops {\textquoteleft}carry{\textquoteright} a fire, and if firebreaks can be better utilised as a fire management tool. A summary of the strategies developed from the results of this research is presented in Table 4, Strategies to help achieve fire-fitness. These are described in more detail in papers P3, P4, SP1 and SP2. In reconstructing the {\textquoteleft}costs{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}rewards{\textquoteright} described in an expanded Protection Motivation Theory to favour an overall net gain, and by providing ways to establish fire-fitness as a desirable and attainable social norm, this research makes a practical and timely contribution to future public policy decision-making in the global {\textquoteleft}new reality{\textquoteright} of natural hazards.

}, url = {https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws\%3A49051}, author = {Rachel Westcott} } @article {bnh-4427, title = {Analysis of the physical processes associated with junction fires at laboratory and field scales}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire }, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Junction fires, which involve the merging of two linear fire fronts intersecting at a small angle, are associated with very intense fire behaviour. The dynamic displacement of the intersection point of the two lines and the flow along the symmetry plane of the fire are analysed for symmetric boundary conditions. It is observed that the velocity of displacement of this point increases very rapidly owing to strong convective effects created by the fire that are similar to those of an eruptive fire. The change of fire geometry and of its associated flow gradually blocks the rate of spread increase and creates a strong deceleration of the fire, which ends up behaving like a linear fire front. Results from laboratory and field-scale experiments, using various fuel beds and slope angles and from a large-scale fire show that the processes are similar at a wide range of scales with little dependence on the initial boundary conditions. Numerical simulation of the heat flux from two flame surfaces to an element of the fuel bed show that radiation can be considered as the main mechanism of fire spread only during the deceleration phase of the fire.

}, keywords = {accelerating fires, convective effects, dynamic fire behaviour, extreme fire behaviour, Fire behaviour, merging fires.}, doi = {10.1071/WF16173}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16173}, author = {J. R. Raposo and D. X. Viegas and X. Xie and M. Almeida and A. R. Figueiredo and L. Porto and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-4573, title = {Animal emergency management in South Australia: a case study of the Sampson Flat bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {60}, keywords = {animals, disaster management., Emergency management, sampson flat}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-animal-emergency-management-in-south-australia-a-case-study-of-the-sampson-flat-bushfire/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy} } @article {bnh-6413, title = {Answering the call national survey, National Mental Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services {\textendash} Final report}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Beyond Blue}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Final report for Beyond Blue{\textquoteright}s national survey\ Answering the call, conducted as part of the National Mental Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services.

}, keywords = {emergency services, mental health, police, wellbeing}, url = {https://www.beyondblue.org.au/about-us/about-our-work/workplace-mental-health/pes-program} } @conference {bnh-4771, title = {Applying unharmed for risk reduction planning {\textendash} comparing strategies and long-term effectiveness}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia. Analysis shows the average cost of natural hazards in 2015 totalled $9.6billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33billion by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics 2015). These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, as tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk is a function of today{\textquoteright}s decisions with effective risk reduction planning there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow{\textquoteright}s impacts. The challenge though exists in that ex-ante analysis on the long term effectiveness of risk reduction strategies, the type of analysis required to justify significant investment and policy decisions, is challenging given the dynamic, complex nature of disaster risk, and the length of assessment period required to consider returns. In response to this and to support improved understanding of future risks and ex-ante testing of risk reduction solutions a tool was developed between researchers and Australian government agencies.

}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Roel Vanhout and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5690, title = {Approaches for investigating wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {The University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Wildfire has serious impacts on the hydrological cycle and water quality of forested catchments. Forested catchments are commonly used as an important source of drinking water supply in Australia and internationally. Monitoring short-term and long-term post-wildfire catchment hydrology (water quantity and quality) change is important for catchment management. Past studies are limited by data availability and method used. In this thesis, we firstly used empirical (linear mixed model and k-mean clustering) and physical-based hydrological model {\textendash} Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to detect the effect of wildfire on forested catchment hydrology and then built scenarios using physical-based model to investigate the cause of the catchment hydrology change and identify the wildfire sensitive areas in catchments for catchment protection. The case study used here is the 2001/2002 Sydney wildfire, 10 years of pre-wildfire and 10 years of post-wildfire water quantity and quality data were collected by WaterNSW and used in this study. We have successfully used linear mixed model and SWAT to detect the wildfire effect on catchment hydrology in the thesis. As a result, the empirical model observed a long-term (5 - 10 years) post-wildfire water quality change; this change is more considerable during post-wildfire event period. The result from physical-based hydrological models also indicated a long-term change in total suspended sediments concentration during post-wildfire period. In addition to the change detected. Our scenario in physical-based models also observed that post-wildfire soil carbon change has limited effect on catchment hydrology and vegetation change is the main cause of post-wildfire catchment hydrological change. Out models also suggested that sub-catchments with higher slope increases, shorter slope, and smaller soil top layer bulk density, clay, and carbon content, are the most wildfire sensitive areas and should be protected the most.

}, keywords = {soil and water assessment tool, soil carbon, TSS, water quality, Wildfire}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20565}, author = {Mengran Yu} } @article {bnh-5404, title = {Assessment of potentially toxic metal contamination in the soils of a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {192}, year = {2018}, abstract = {

The environmental impact of toxic metal contamination from legacy mining activities, many of which had operated and were closed prior to the enforcement of robust environmental legislation, is of growing concern to modern society. We have carried out analysis of As and potentially toxic metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the surface soil of a legacy gold mining site in Maldon, Victoria, Australia, to reveal the status of the current metal concentration. The results revealed the median concentrations of metals from highest to lowest, in the order: Mn\ \>\ Zn\ \>\ As\ \>\ Cr\ \>\ Cu\ \>\ Pb\ \>\ Ni\ \>\ Co\ \>\ Hg\ \>\ Cd. The status of site was assessed directly by comparing the metal concentrations in the study area with known Australian and Victorian average top soil levels and the health investigation levels set by the National Environmental Protection Measures (NEPM) and the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) of the State of Western Australia. Although, median concentrations of As, Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn exceeded the average Australian and Victorian top soil concentrations, only As and Hg exceeded the ecological investigation levels (EIL) set by DEC and thus these metals are considered as risk to the human and aquatic ecosystems health due to their increase in concentration and toxicity. In an environment of climate fluctuation with increased storm events and forest fires may mobilize these toxic metals contaminants, pose a real threat to the environment and the community.

}, keywords = {Ecosystem health, Heavy metal pollution, Human health, Legacy mining issues, Soil pollution}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.10.150}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653517317356?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-5063, title = {Attachment, bushfire preparedness, planning, and response among animal guardians: A South Australian case study}, journal = {PLOS}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Abstract Background: Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {Dr Lisel O{\textquoteright}Dwyer and Kirrilly Thompson} } @inbook {bnh-4957, title = {Australian cities and the governance of climate change}, booktitle = {Australia{\textquoteright}s Metropolitan Imperative - An Agenda for Governance Reform}, year = {2018}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {Australian cities and the governance of climate change}, address = {Clayton, Victoria, Australia}, issn = {9781486307968}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7726/}, author = {Newton, Peter and Bertram, Nigel and John Handmer and Nigel Tapper and RP Thornton and Whetton, Penny} } @article {bnh-5201, title = {Australian Flammability Monitoring System Version 1.0: User feedback and priorities for further development}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to the information requirements expressed by end users, the Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} (Project A1) developed the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS)
website (version 1.0). The AFMS makes spatial information on fuel condition and flammability easier and faster to access.

This report summarises feedback received from end users and discusses priorities for future development that may potentially be addressed by the BNHCRC and the project team in future.

All end users involved in the project, and participating in several seminars and presentations featuring the AFMS, recognised the value of the system to improve fire management in Australia. However, they also identified some significant barriers to adoption by the Australian bushfire sector. Firstly, neither FMC nor FI are presently used in any models or systems. This means that the sector needs to explore the information and develop work processes for using it. Another key barrier is the timeliness of the system. It presently takes 15 days to acquire the satellite data, process and publish. This delay is too long to allow practitioners to trial the system during operations.

Consequently, future priorities for further development should focus on activities that will contribute to strengthening the usability of the AFMS and adoption. As a first step, we need to invest more time working with end users to develop specific operational applications and integrate the information displayed in the AFMS into current decision processes and tools (e.g. the ACT Parks and Conservation Service{\textquoteright}s Prescribe Burn Decision Tool). Meanwhile, we also need to improve timeliness, robustness, visual presentation and explanation of the information displayed on the AFMS website to make it easier for users to extract the important details.

The implementation of the AFMS into daily fire management operations will take fire management in Australia to a new level.

}, issn = {437}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-6665, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events}, number = {544}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the second research report for the Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation BNH-CRC project and constitutes a preliminary assessment of selected current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation. Major post-event inquiries can play an important role in pushing for the reform of current urban planning arrangements to target disaster risk reduction. This was evident in the implementation of the Bushfire Management Overlay (see Appendix 1) and related statutory mechanisms in the State of Victoria after the 2009 Bushfires. Furthermore, recommendations can shed light on areas perceived as gaps during wider assessments of causes and contributory factors relating to major hazard events. Therefore, a review of urban-planning-related recommendations following major post-event inquiries and reviews across all-natural hazards will form the basis of this report, considering the role of urban planning in reducing emergent and legacy risks associated with the built environment.

The form of post-event inquiries varies widely, from the focused, technical and brief, to wide-ranging and lengthy such as those carried out by a Royal Commission (Eburn \& Dovers, 2015). While the recommendations of inquiries are very rarely binding on governments, they nonetheless carry significant weight and implementation is the norm. There were 142 post-event inquiries in Australia between 2009 and 2017, constituting by far the largest body of evaluation data regarding actual or perceived issues in disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This report begins to explore those recommendations from 55 major inquiries that relate to urban planning (Cole, Dovers, Eburn, \& Gough, 2017; Cole, Dovers, Gough, \& Eburn, 2018).

In this context, a preliminary assessment of urban-planning-related recommendations put forward by major post-event inquiries and reviews proved a worthwhile undertaking as the first step into understanding current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in the past 10 years.

The assessment of these recommendations was informed by the analytical framework developed in the first research report for this project, developed through a review of relevant literature and in consultation with end-users. This analytical framework proposed a set of elements of an approach to integration, and a general list of urban planning tools and another of urban planning treatments of risk that can be used to support natural hazard mitigation.

Assessing urban-planning-related recommendations against the set of categories proposed in this analytical framework targeted both the mapping of these recommendations to unveil concentrations as well as the testing and expansion of the framework through its first practical application.

Findings from this preliminary assessment will inform the next stage of this research project which consists in the assessment of specific Australian and international case studies. The former will provide an opportunity to contrast recommendations with implemented integration while the later holds potential for an expansion of possibilities to integration to those already being employed in Australia.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {544}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-5215, title = {Australian natural hazards exposure information framework: guidelines for national consistency and comprehensive information}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, issn = {445}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli and Itismita Mohanty and Yogi Vidyattama and Mohsen Kalantari and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-5007, title = {Australian wildland-urban interface householders{\textquoteright} wildfire safety preparations: {\textquoteleft}Everyday life{\textquoteright} project priorities and perceptions of wildfire risk}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

Globally, many residents of wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities are at risk of wildfire attack but do not undertake adequate preparations. Householder wildfire risk perception has been proposed as an important influence on risk mitigation preparatory actions. However, research findings have been inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of 10 studies and found the average correlation between wildfire risk perception and risk mitigation actions to be small: r = 0.17. In order to investigate wildfire risk perception and mitigation further we conducted two studies of Australian WUI householders{\textquoteright} wildfire risk perceptions and mitigation actions in the context of their everyday life activities conceptualised as {\textquoteleft}household projects{\textquoteright}. Study 1 involved 32 interviews. Both household wildfire safety project priority rankings (r = 0.47) and wildfire risk perception ratings (r = 0.44) were related significantly to number of completed wildfire preparation actions. Study 2 involved 127 householders completing an online survey, with 83 providing household wildfire safety project priority rankings. These rankings were related significantly to number of completed wildfire safety preparation actions (r = 0.38), but risk perception ratings were not related significantly (r = 0.08). Implications of viewing wildfire preparation actions as being situated in everyday life contexts are discussed.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, everyday life, personal projects, risk mitigation, WUI risk perception}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.09.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918308719$\#$!}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Jim McLennan and Kubra Koksal and Danielle Every} } @conference {bnh-4767, title = {Australia{\textquoteright}s future national heatwave forecast and warning service: operational considerations.}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Heat wave is Australia{\textquoteright}s deadliest natural hazard. It is responsible for more hazardrelated deaths than all other natural hazards combined. The incidence of severe and extreme heatwaves in Australia has been considerable and is projected to increase. Recent efforts to mitigate the impact of this rising frequency and severity of heatwave events across the nation has witnessed State and Territory authorities warning for impacts across human health, infrastructure, utilities, community events and business activities whilst the Bureau of Meteorology introduced a national heatwave service. Consultation across emergency services, health and media sectors has established the requirement for a national heatwave warning framework. Within the health sector separate calls have been made for a nationalised approach to heatwave warnings.\  We describe an operational partnership model for emergency and health agencies community information and warnings facilitated by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s future heatwave forecasts and warnings in a multi-hazard warning framework.\  Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that the Bureau{\textquoteright}s severity scale has skill in predicting health impacts in Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales. The UK Meteorological Office has included the Bureau{\textquoteright}s heatwave and coldwave methodology in their Global Hazard Map project where it is also demonstrating acceptable levels of accuracy in identifying high impact events around the world. The Bureau has supplied a national warm season heatwave severity service since January 2014 in the form of seven continental scale severity maps, updated once a day. Predictive skill and heatwave event severity characterisation reports for summers 201314, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 have been circulated to the Bureau{\textquoteright}s internal Heatwave Services Reference Group to enable consideration and validation of the current heatwave service. This verification work is scheduled to continue with upgraded diagnostics included here for the 2017-18 season. Future emergency services and human health information and warning services are prototyped using recently developed gridded heatwave service data. Heatwave forecast and warning services are demonstrated to characterise how each partner{\textquoteright}s information and warning services would have been supported during the 2017-18 summer.\ \ 

}, author = {John Nairn and Robert Fawcett and Linda Anderson-Berry and Bertram Ostendorf and Peng Bi and Chris Beattie and Mark Cannadine} } @article {bnh-5145, title = {The boundary layer dynamics of tropical cyclone rainbands}, journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences}, volume = {75}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, abstract = {

Spiral bands are ubiquitous features in tropical cyclones and significantly affect boundary layer thermodynamics, yet knowledge of their boundary layer dynamics is lacking. Prompted by recent work that has shown that relatively weak axisymmetric vorticity perturbations outside of the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones can produce remarkably strong frictional convergence, and by the observation that most secondary eyewalls appear to form by the {\textquotedblleft}wrapping up{\textquotedblright} of a spiral rainband, the effect of asymmetric vorticity features that mimic spiral bands is studied. The mass field corresponding to an axisymmetric vortex with added spiral vorticity band is constructed using the nonlinear balance equation, and supplied to a three-dimensional boundary layer model. The resulting flow has strong low-level convergence and a marked updraft extending along the vorticity band and some distance downwind. There is a marked along-band wind maximum in the upper boundary layer, similar to observations, which is up to about 20\% stronger than the balanced flow. A marked gradient in the inflow-layer depth exists across the band and there is an increase in the surface wind factor (the ratio of surface wind speed to nonlinear-balanced wind speed) near the band. The boundary layer dynamics near a rainband therefore form a continuum with the flow near a secondary eyewall. None of these features are due to convective momentum transports, which are absent from the model. The sensitivities of the flow to band length, width, location, crossing angle, and amplitude are examined, and the possible contribution of boundary layer dynamics to the formation of the tropical cyclone rainbands discussed.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0133.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0133.1}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5010, title = {Building capability in emergency services: diversity and inclusion in communities}, number = {418}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The purpose of this report is to consolidate and integrate the findings of case studies conducted in three locations {\textendash} Bordertown, Bendigo and Parramatta. The aims of the case studies were to gain a greater qualitative understanding of the dynamics of change in communities, to explore community perceptions of Emergency Management Services (EMS) and to identify barriers and opportunities for community engagement and inclusion with EMS.\ 

Each case study areas is affected variously by major Australian trends including economic transformation, population growth, increasing cultural diversity, widening inequality and spatial reconfigurations, as well as sustained inequalities based on gender, disability, indigeneity and other forms of diversity. Key themes identified include that EMS are widely held in high regard and there were numerous examples of practical EMS engagement with communities. At the same time, barriers to engagement stem from the perception that EMS do not fully appreciate or understand the changing nature of diversity within their communities, that they appear to be a {\textquoteleft}closed shop{\textquoteright}, unwelcoming to women, sometimes intimidating, difficult to communicate with and lacking in transparency and flexibility.

While multiple opportunities were identified to enhance community engagement, the overall priority was to approach diversity and inclusion as a dynamic and ongoing process based on proactive relationship-building and collaboration.\  This is understood as necessary in order to appreciate the lived experience of diverse communities and to harness the community knowledge, languages and skills to better serve the community in the long term. The findings suggest that there is great willingness within communities to facilitate and collaborate towards this goal.

}, issn = {418}, author = {Joanne Pyke} } @article {bnh-4690, title = {Bushfire Preparedness, Planning, and Response among Animal Guardians: A South Australian Case Study}, journal = {PLOS Current Disasters}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, keywords = {animals, disasters, Emergency management, Planning, Preparedness, response.}, doi = {10.6084}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Dwyer, Lisel and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-5094, title = {Can a growth model be used to describe forest carbon and water balance after fuel reduction burning in temperate forests?}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {615}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {1000-1009}, chapter = {1000}, abstract = {

Empirical evidence from Australia shows that fuel reduction\ burningsignificantly reduces the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. However, the integration of environmental values into\ fire management\ operations is not yet well-defined and requires further research and development.

WAVES, a plant growth model that incorporates Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer, was used to simulate the hydrological and\ ecological effects\ of three fuel management scenarios on a\ forest ecosystem. WAVES was applied using inputs from a set of forest plots for one year after three potential scenarios: (1) all litter removed, (2) all litter and 50\% of the\ understorey\ removed, (3) all litter and understorey removed. Modelled outputs were compared with sites modelled with no-fuel reduction treatment (Unburnt).

The key change between unburnt and fuel reduced forests was a significant increase in soil moisture after fire. Predictions of the recovery of aboveground carbon as plant biomass were driven by model structure and thus variability in available light and soil moisture at a local scale. Similarly, effects of fuel reduction burning on\ water processes\ were mainly due to changes in vegetation interception capacity (i.e. regrowth) and soil evaporation. Predicted effects of fuel reduction burning on total\ evapotranspiration\ (ET) {\textendash} the major component of\ water balance\ {\textendash} were marginal and not significant, even though a considerable proportion of ET had effectively been transferred from understorey to overstorey. In common with many plant growth models, outputs from WAVES are dictated by the assumption that overstorey trees continue to grow irrespective of their age or stage of maturity. Large areas of eucalypt forests and woodlands in SE Australia are well beyond their aggrading phase and are instead over-mature. The ability of these forests to rapidly respond to greater availability of water remains uncertain.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.315}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717326669?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Malcolm Possell and R. Willem Vervoort and Adams, Mark A. and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5259, title = {Can air quality management drive sustainable fuels management at the temperate wildland{\textendash}urban interface?}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {1}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Sustainablefiremanagementhaseludedallindustrialsocieties. Giventhegrowingnumber and magnitude of wildfire events, prescribed fire is being increasingly promoted as the key to reducing wildfire risk. However, smoke from prescribed fires can adversely affect public health. We propose that the application of air quality standards can lead to the development and adoption of sustainable fire management approaches that lower the risk of economically and ecologically damagingwildfireswhileimprovingairqualityandreducingclimate-forcingemissions. Forexample, green fire breaks at the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can resist the spread of wildfires into urban areas. These could be created through mechanical thinning of trees, and then maintained by targeted prescribedfiretocreatebiodiverseandaestheticallypleasinglandscapes. Theharvestedwoodydebris could be used for pellets and other forms of bioenergy in residential space heating and electricity generation. Collectively, such an approach would reduce the negative health impacts of smoke pollutionfromwildfires,prescribedfires,andcombustionofwoodfordomesticheating. Weillustrate such possibilities by comparing current and potential fire management approaches in the temperate and environmentally similar landscapes of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada and the island state of Tasmania in Australia.

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sarah_Henderson4/publication/326955566_Can_Air_Quality_Management_Drive_Sustainable_Fuels_Management_at_the_Temperate_Wildland-Urban_Interface/links/5b6db08245851546c9fa2dab/Can-Air-Quality-Management-Drive-Sustainable}, author = {David Bowman and Lori Daniels and Fay Johnston and Grant Williamson and Matt Jolly and Sheryl Magzamen and Ana Rappold and Michael Brauer and Sarah Henderson} } @article {bnh-4572, title = {Can major post-event inquiries and reviews contribute to lessons management?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {

Significant disaster and emergency management events are invariably followed by formal post-event inquiries and reviews. Such reviews identify lessons to improve future capacities and set the agenda for policy and management reform for emergency management organisations. As a result, there is a substantial body of reflections and recommendations gathered across all hazard types and jurisdictions by formal, structured inquiry processes that contribute to lessons management for the emergency sector. However, whether there is any coherence or core lessons emerging for the Australian sector from the totality of postevent inquiries is unknown. The work reported here identifies the recommendations from these inquiries. A meta-analysis of 1336 recommendations made in 55 Australian major post-event reviews and inquiries since 2009 revealed common themes. The recommendations were compiled into a comprehensive database and categorised into 32 themes. The analysis highlighted recurrent themes from recommendations spanning multiple jurisdictions. The study indicates the potential value for Australian and New Zealand emergency management agencies and jurisdictions of using the aggregate data organised as a resource for lessons management.

}, keywords = {commission, communication, emergency management., lessons management, Planning, post-disaster, review, risk}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-can-major-post-event-inquiries-and-reviews-contribute-to-lessons-management/}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4688, title = {Changing capabilities of emergency service organisations}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

In our literature review on the costs and benefits of increasing diversity, we also outlined the changing context in which emergency service organisations (ESOs) (that include emergency management) were operating. In summary, the change in the context was due to:

{\textbullet} The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters due to climate change (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience) (COAG, 2011)

{\textbullet} The increased availability of new and improved technology to respond to natural disasters

{\textbullet} The increased need to serve a much more diverse community (Smiley, 2010, pp 24, 30).

This has meant that both the capabilities and the tasks undertaken by the ESOs have had to change to respond to this changing context, and tasks have changed as demonstrated by the types of incidents and emergencies attended.\  These new capabilities and new tasks could be undertaken by retraining the existing workforce. However, the development of these new capabilities and new tasks provides an opportunity to recruit new staff with the required skills from more diverse backgrounds to undertake these new and/or expanding tasks. The literature review suggested that a well-managed, more diverse workforce could produce better performance outcomes for tasks of increasing complexity. In some areas such as new technology capabilities and communication with diverse communities, it may be necessary to recruit those with more diverse backgrounds to meet basic operational objectives.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity., emergencies, Emergency management, Learning}, issn = {364}, author = {Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-5103, title = {Children in the 2015 South Indian floods: community members{\textquoteright} views}, journal = {European Journal of Psychotraumatology}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, abstract = {

Little is known about children{\textquoteright}s experiences and involvement in disaster preparation and recovery, in particular in low- and middle-income countries. Eliciting community members{\textquoteright} perspectives on the 2015 floods in Tamil Nadu, India, may generate useful insights for improving services in low-resource settings. This qualitative study aimed to understand how children in Chennai experienced the floods, as reported by the adults in their community, and to explore children{\textquoteright}s involvement in disaster preparedness, response and recovery efforts as reported from the adults{\textquoteright} perspective. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews (N\ =\ 48) with family members (n\ =\ 36), and with staff of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) (n\ =\ 12) who actively participated in relief and recovery efforts. We also conducted two focus group discussions (n\ =\ 14) with NGO staff about a year after the 2015 South Indian floods in Chennai, India. Six broad themes regarding children{\textquoteright}s experiences and behaviours during and after the floods emerged: (1) unexpectedness of the floods; (2) children{\textquoteright}s safety {\textendash} barriers and facilitators; (3) parents{\textquoteright} reactions {\textendash} helplessness, fear and pride; (4) children{\textquoteright}s reactions {\textendash} helping hands, fun and fear; (5) barriers to a return to {\textquoteleft}normal{\textquoteright}; and (6) a determination to be prepared for next time. Children and families were deeply impacted by the floods, in part owing to a lack of preparation, as perceived by the study participants. It was also clear from the data analysis that caste and socioeconomic status played an important role in the families{\textquoteright} ability to evacuate safely. Helplessness on the part of the parents was apparent, as was children{\textquoteright}s concern over recurrence of the flood. Similarly, gender appeared to affect child safety, recovery and other outcomes such as continued education. Priorities for future efforts involve the development and evaluation of child-centred education about flood awareness, child participation and safety.

}, doi = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1080\%2F20008198.2018.1486122}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6038026/}, author = {Revathi Krishna and Kevin Ronan and Eva Alisic} } @article {bnh-5258, title = {Collaboration in disasters: A cultural challenge for the utilities sector}, journal = {Utilities Policy}, volume = {54}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {78}, abstract = {

Understanding the interdependency of organizations in a disaster is necessary to facilitate collaboration. Interdependencies in the utilities sector have traditionally focused upon the technical aspects of these dependencies. This research used empirical research methods that included an observational study of utility stakeholders during a real-time disaster. The study investigated the cultural challenges associated with the socio-cultural interdependencies that stakeholders from the utilities sector encountered when working in emergency management. Participants identified that a lack of legitimacy and trust created barriers to collaboration. The paper concludes with recommendations for the industry to address the potential cultural barriers encountered in a disaster.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.jup.2018.08.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178718300535}, author = {Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-4479, title = {Community adaptation to cope with disaster related road structure failure}, journal = {Procedia Engineering}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, chapter = {1355}, abstract = {

Natural hazards can cause a wide range of social and economic impacts both to the area directly affected by the hazards as well as to the broader community. Although community resilience is an important aspect that influences post-disaster response and recovery stages, it has not been explicitly studied by most scholars, and is rather taken to be embedded in the socio-economic landscape studied in the literature. Road structures such as bridges, culverts and flood-ways play a vital role in times of natural disasters as their functionality directly influences evacuation, rescue, recovery and reconstruction activities. In addition to the direct benefits derived from road structures, in the event of a disaster, they play a vital role in resilience by connecting individuals and communities. This paper identifies adaptation methods practiced by disaster affected communities targeted at increasing their accessibility and mobility, and analyses how such adaptation activities can minimise the negative effects brought on by the failure of road structures. The paper uses a recent case study from regional Queensland, Australia, to understand how adaptation options vary in rural areas and to explore possible methods to improve resilience of communities.

}, keywords = {Community adaptation, Natural hazards, road structure failure.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.175}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705818302030?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Hessam Mohseni and Guomin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Sujeeva Setunge} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6996, title = {Community engagement in the post-disaster landscape}, volume = {Masters in Disaster, Design and Development }, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Masters}, abstract = {

The Hotspots Fire Project is a program providing landholders and land managers with the skills and\ knowledge to actively participate in fire management. It teaches how fire can be used as a land\ management technique to promote biodiversity, as well as to protect assets.\ 

Hotspots Fire Project is run jointly by the NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) and the Nature Conservation\ Council of NSW (NCC). It is steered by a Committee which includes representatives from the following\ organisations: NCC; NSW RFS; Southeast Queensland Fire and Biodiversity Consortium; Forestry\ Corporation; Local Government NSW; Local Land Services; Office of Environment and Heritage; NSW\ National Parks and Wildlife Service; and NSW Farmers.

Hotspots was recently run for residents of Carwoola NSW. Carwoola is a peri-urban area located just\ outside Canberra. In February 2017, the area was impacted by a major bush fire, which burnt 3,134\ hectares of land and destroyed over 50 buildings {\textendash} 11 of them houses.

This is the first time the Hotspots program has been run as a recovery tool for a disaster-affected\ community. The program was adapted for Carwoola to include: two series of two-day workshops for\ residents; a third workshop day that was also a community caf{\'e} session; training for local Stoney Creek\ (now Carwoola) RFS brigade to conduct bush fire risk assessments for houses; and on ongoing monthly\ community caf{\'e} with information sessions.

Workshop activities and messaging were adapted to address fears of fire. Local land-holders were\ encouraged to see fire as an integral part of the Australian landscape, and possibly as a useful land\ management tool. The overall aim was to make Carwoola{\textquoteright}s residents and landscape more resilient to\ future bush fires.

Demand for the Hotspots program {\textendash} in particular the workshops and property risk assessments {\textendash} was\ high to begin with. Fifteen months after the fire, interest from the community has waned.

This report looks at the Hotspots program with the view to identifying what worked and areas for\ improvement. Demand for post-disaster services is likely to increase given the increasing numbers of\ disasters. Understanding how all these elements come into play, along with sharing beneficial\ information and support is fundamental to future government programs offering post-disaster\ assistance.

}, keywords = {community, engagement, post-disaster}, author = {Zo{\"e} D{\textquoteright}Arcy} } @article {bnh-4439, title = {Community preparedness and responses to the 2017 New South Wales bushfires}, number = {358}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

January and February 2017 saw a number of destructive bushfires in New South Wales, some of which occurred during Catastrophic fire weather conditions. These fires damaged and destroyed a range of assets including houses, outbuildings, community halls, livestock, machinery, fences and other agricultural assets. Fortunately no human lives were lost.

The NSW Rural Fire Service engaged the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to conduct research into community preparedness and responses to bushfires in NSW in 2017. The NSW RFS identified two main themes for investigation. The first theme, Information and warnings, comprised a series of questions about the effectiveness of warnings delivered to the community, the delivery of Catastrophic Fire Danger messages, the information people sought out relating to the fires, and the drivers and motivators for those who sought to enter or re-enter fire grounds. The second theme, Planning and preparedness measures, encompassed questions about people{\textquoteright}s perceptions of bushfire risk, perceptions of risk to and value of agricultural and domestic assets, prioritisation of protective responses, and influences of previous fire history.\ 

The research involved 113 interviews with people affected by the Currandooley, Carwoola and Sir Ivan bushfires and an online survey of 549 people threatened or affected by bushfires in NSW in 2017.

Key findings centre around warnings, the behaviour of those under threat and public expectations of fire and emergency service agencies. The study found that people greatly value the Fires Near Me smartphone application and NSW RFS website for warning information, believing the information to be easy to understand, useful and sufficiently localised. However, there is a need to more clearly communicate that destructive fires occur at all fire danger conditions, not just at the Catastrophic level, as well as the limitations of directly attacking a fire front when conditions are too dangerous.

The research also confirms the tendency for people to wait and observe the fire directly before getting ready to defend themselves or confirm the need to leave even after receiving a warning. Based on the research, the NSW RFS has put new processes in place to better liaise with communities during major fire events, and is looking to further strengthen its approach to public information through websites, smartphone applications and face-to-face communication.

}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-0-2}, issn = {358}, author = {J Whittaker and Mel Taylor} } @conference {bnh-4780, title = {Community preparedness and responses to the 2017 NSW bushfires}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

January and February 2017 saw a number of destructive bushfires in New South Wales, some of which occurred during Catastrophic fire weather conditions. These fires damaged and destroyed a range of assets including houses, outbuildings, community halls, livestock, machinery, fences and other agricultural assets. Fortunately no human lives were lost.\ 

}, author = {J Whittaker} } @conference {bnh-4783, title = {Community strategy development for reducing earthquake risk in Western Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

While the earthquake hazard in Australia is generally low by world standards, its severity does include higher hazard in some regions. This is the case in the Yilgarn region east of Perth as highlighted by the 1968 Meckering Earthquake and the observed seismic activity of the region in the last seventy years. Where building construction has not considered earthquake hazard the risk to communities can be significant. This is an issue for the township of York which is WA{\textquoteright}s oldest inland settlement and has a high proportion of heritage buildings that are vulnerable to earthquake. The presence of high risk buildings of this type is a challenge for local government, emergency management and other government agencies with a role in community recovery after disasters.
In the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) a project called Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk is developing information on cost effective strategies for retrofitting vulnerable buildings. The project scope has been augmented to examine the effectiveness of a range of strategies for addressing high risk structures. This is a collaborative study involving a partnership approach between state and local government along with academic and government researchers under the BNHCRC. The project will utilise the mitigation approaches developed by the CRC within a range of potential roll-out options to virtually retrofit the town of York. The net benefits of each will be assessed considering avoided damage, impacts on occupants, lost rental income, and disruption to business activity and households.
In this presentation the motivation for this collaborative effort will be discussed in the context of an improved understanding of natural hazard risk in WA, the increasing focus on investing in risk mitigation as opposed to response and recovery, and the shared interest of both State and Local government to promote resilience in vulnerable communities. The outcomes of a broad stakeholder workshop convened in York on the 9th August 2018 will be described in which strategies for providing incentives for risk reduction were identified. The importance of risk information in informing property owners and communities is discussed and the need to address their apprehension in addressing vulnerability with heritage listed structures. Finally, the value of broader measures of avoided community impacts beyond the direct monetary in decision making is highlighted and the linkages being made to another BNHCRC project called Economics of natural hazards that will enable intangible (non-market) values to be included in a quantitative manner.

}, author = {Stephen Gray and Paul Martin and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Hossein Derakhshan} } @article {bnh-4689, title = {Community values survey}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Values are the basis of decision-making. They direct the beliefs that determine what is most important and so underpin desirable goals that motivate action (Schwartz, 2012, p4).
Understanding similar and differing values is increasingly being used by organisations as a way to understand gaps between their organization, clients and communities they serve. For emergency management services to better represent the diversity of the communities they service, they need to not just understand the demographics of those communities, but also the values across their communities, particularly in relation to diversity.
This study undertook a community survey across 539 community members to ascertain values and attitudes in relation to Emergency Management Organisations (EMO). The survey used Schwartz{\textquoteright}s measurement of values, comprised of ten different values, based around four key areas: openness to change, self-transcendence, conservation and self-enhancement, as a basis. Questions from the Schwartz values study were amalgamated with the World Values Survey to develop the survey. The demographic varied across age, gender and cultural spectrums.
The data from this survey provide a baseline for understanding existing community values relating to diversity and inclusion. These results will be compared to those held by EMOs and their staff in later work. This has potential to help discern where there may be significant similarities and differences between EMS organisations and the community that influence current and future strength and capability of diversity and inclusion in the emergency management sector.

}, keywords = {decision-making, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, multi-hazard., Preparedness, response}, issn = {365}, author = {Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-4399, title = {A comparison and validation of satellite-derived fire severity mapping techniques in fire prone north Australian savannas: Extreme fires and tree stem mortality}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {206}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {287-299}, chapter = {287}, abstract = {

Severe fires in tropical savanna systems are recognised as incurring significant impacts on a variety of ecological attributes, including woody vegetation structure and greenhouse gas emissions. However, knowledge of the frequency and extent of severe fires is restricted given challenges associated with the development of reliable remotely sensed mapping procedures. This study takes advantage of three wildfires, 900{\textendash}5300\ km2\ in extent, containing very severely affected areas, occurring in semi-evergreen, eucalypt-dominated, tropical Australian savanna, which resulted in significant areas of complete canopy scorch, very significant tree stem mortality (24{\textendash}55\%), and associated loss of living above ground biomass (47{\textendash}69\%) at respective sites. Although increased map scale is generally considered to improve the reliability of fire severity mapping, our analysis found \>\ 90\% agreement between Landsat and MODIS-derived burnt area mapping, and \>\ 80\% for binary (severe vs. non-severe) fire severity mapping. Mapping of internal fire (unburnt) patchiness was enhanced with finer resolution Landsat imagery, but the much longer orbital return cycle precluded its use at two of the three sites given extended cloudy conditions. Application of an automated MODIS-derived fire severity mapping algorithm (overall reliability in 2015\ =\ 75\%) calibrated for generalised north Australian savanna conditions, suggests that 15\% and 12\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s 1.3\ M\ km2\ tropical savannas region were burnt by severe fires in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The study illustrates the potential for MODIS-derived fire severity mapping, the impacts of very severe fires on stand structure, and ongoing challenges associated with deriving reliable fire severity mapping products in Australian savanna systems.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.038}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717306223}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stefan Maier} } @article {bnh-4446, title = {Conditions for effective coproduction in community-led disaster risk management}, journal = {Voluntas}, volume = {28}, year = {2018}, pages = {16}, abstract = {

This paper reports on a case study of collective coproduction in an Australian community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) project called {\textquoteleft}Be Ready Warrandyte{\textquoteright}. The first goal of the case study was to understand what interactions and power-sharing between citizens and government {\textquoteleft}looked and felt like{\textquoteright} in a significant example of community-led CBDRM in an Australian context. Its second, broader goal was to test the extent to which foundational coproduction theory, specifically four conditions proposed by Elinor Ostrom for enabling coproduction that is more effective than either government or citizen production alone, can explain the citizen-government interactions, roles and contributions that enable successful community-led CBDRM. The study confirms that each of the four conditions {\textendash} complementarity, authority, incentives and credible commitment {\textendash} also apply to community-led as well as government-led initiatives. It reinforces the central importance of complementarity for avoiding off-loading of risk, responsibility and cost to citizens from government, while also suggesting that specific sources of internal and external authority, incentives, and credible commitment are especially important when coproduction is community-led. It identifies leadership and its impacts on government-citizen relationships and power-sharing in coproduction as an important area that needs further research.

}, keywords = {accountability, community initiatives, community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM), Coproduction, interactive governance., leadership}, doi = {10.1007/s11266-018-9957-2}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11266-018-9957-2} } @article {bnh-5213, title = {Constructing a data reliability framework for the natural hazard exposure information system}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Consistent and reliable exposure information is crucial for disaster mitigation\ and evidence-based decision-making for bushfire and other natural hazard risk.\ There are a few capabilities in Australia to provide nationally consistent\ exposure information, such as Geoscience Australia{\textquoteright}s National Exposure\ Information System (NEXIS), but they are not comprehensive enough to address\ the entire spectrum of disaster risk reduction. The existing capabilities were\ developed to provide information for their known clients and users. To manage\ disasters efficiently, there is the need for a nationally consistent framework that\ deals with the collection, collation and dissemination of exposure information\ for researchers and decision-makers.

The aim of this research project is to develop a framework that could provide a\ reliability assessment for exposure information that is available to various types\ of users. This assessment framework will play an important role in the\ disbursement of data and knowledge through a website and web portal\ because generally, the users take the information as it stands and assume the\ information will be appropriate for their usage.

In particular, the data and knowledge disbursed are intended to moderate the\ socio-economic impact from natural hazards and lifeline utility failures. In doing\ so, improved risk assessment tools underpin planning, preparedness, response\ and recovery in disaster management that enable well-informed decisionmaking.\ Exposure information systems obtain data from many sources with\ varying resolutions, quality, standards, aggregations, dis-aggregations,\ statistical approximations and estimations. The reliability assessment framework\ will help the users, providers and managers of the exposure data and\ information to communicate the variation in reliability or quality, and ensure\ they are used appropriately to assess the risk.\ 

Building on the International Standards Organisation{\textquoteright}s criteria for data quality as\ well as a standardised data provenance framework, we propose a data\ reliability framework for exposure information systems. One of the features\ suggested for this framework is for exposure information systems to start with\ classification systems for various reliability or quality criteria based on the\ provenance, spatial accuracy, currency and precision of the data. The\ framework then sets different thresholds of these quality criteria for different\ types of users. However, this is only an initial threshold within the system. It is\ recommended that in order for the framework to work, it needs to be open to\ user input to re-evaluate the standard being put in place. This is owing to the\ huge variation of users and hence their requirements in terms of data quality.\ Therefore, it is important to recalibrate the data element criteria, the\ assessment threshold and the grouping of the type of users based on their\ inputs.

}, issn = {443}, author = {Yogi Vidyattama} } @article {bnh-4970, title = {Controlled burn and immediate mobilization of potentially toxic elements in soil, from a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {616-617}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, chapter = {1022}, abstract = {

Conducting controlled burns in fire prone areas is an efficient and economic method for forest management, and provides relief from the incidence of high severity wild fires and the consequent damage to human property and ecosystems. However, similar to wild fires, controlled burns also affect many of the physical and biogeochemical properties of the forest soil and may facilitate remobilization of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) sequestered in vegetation and soil organic matter. The objective of the current study is to investigate the mobilization of PTEs, in Central Victorian forest soils in Australia after a controlled burn. Surface soil samples were collected two days before and after the controlled burn to determine the concentration of PTEs and to examine the physicochemical properties. Results show that As, Cd, Mn, Ni and Zn concentrations increased 1.1, 1.6, 1.7, 1.1 and 1.9 times respectively in the post-burn environment, whereas the concentrations of Hg, Cr and Pb decreased to 0.7, 0.9 and 0.9 times respectively, highlighting considerable PTE mobility during and after a controlled burn. Whilst these results do not identify very strong correlations between physicochemical properties of soil and PTEs in the pre- and post-burn environments, PTEs themselves demonstrated very strong and significant correlations. The mobilization of As, Hg and other toxic elements raise potential health concerns as the number of controlled burns are projected to increase in response to climate change. Due to this increased level of PTE release and remobilization, the use of any kinds of controlled burn must be carefully considered before being used as a forest management strategy in mining-affected landscapes which include areas with high PTE concentrations.

}, keywords = {Arsenic and metals, environmental pollution, forest fire, historical mining, prescribed fire, soil and water pollution}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717329364}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-5129, title = {Coping with disasters while living in poverty: a systematic review}, journal = {Journal of Loss and Trauma}, volume = {23}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

This review synthesizes the literature on how Asia-Pacific children and families living in poverty cope with disasters. A systematic search yielded 26 studies from six low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in the region. Findings emphasized the role of socioeconomic factors, sociocultural factors, and indigenous knowledge. Coping strategies related to finances were most prominently described in the studies, in contrast to health and psychosocial strategies. Substantial gender issues were identified. The review highlights gaps regarding child involvement in research and coping strategies used by children living in poverty.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15325024.2017.1415724}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15325024.2017.1415724?journalCode=upil20}, author = {Revathi Krishna and Saadia Majeed and Kevin Ronan and Eva Alisic} } @article {bnh-5199, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: reporting on economic loss models}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output from Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

Earthquakes have the potential to cause widespread damage to Australian communities and the economic activity that occurs within them. Recent earthquake events have illustrated this, including the Newcastle Earthquake (1989) and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake (2010). This potential is largely due to the fact that much of the Australian building stock has not been designed nor constructed with adequate consideration of earthquake hazard.\ 

Mitigation intervention is needed to reduce this risk but an evidence base is lacking to inform investment. In particular, there is a need for economic measures of the benefits of retrofit as an offset to the sometimes large costs
of upgrading structures for earthquake. This need exists in many other countries.

As part of this research an extensive literature review has been published to inform the best approach for assessing the costs of business interruption and the losses associated with injury and death. Frameworks have also been developed for a range of Australian decision makers. Decision makers include building owners, owners of both business premises and the business within, local government, state government and national government. The scale of decision making metrics range from individual building level up to business precinct level exposures and the interdependence of building performance within them. The information and models required as inputs into the framework have been identified along with how these will be met, either with outputs from this CRC project, or from other sources.

This report builds on the previous work and provides the experimental estimates for different components of economic loss that might occur in the event of an earthquake scenario. These are specifically business income loss, rental income loss and health care expenditure. The report considers these in the context of the future Greater Melbourne region (excluding Mornington Peninsula) as a case study.\ 

Current research on the economic loss modelling is on track. Future work will estimate the actual business interruption loss values for assessing precinct level economic activity disruption.

}, issn = {435}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5394, title = {Crowdsourcing Methods for Data Collection in Geophysics: State of the Art, Issues, and Future Directions}, journal = {Reviews of Geophysics}, volume = {56}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, chapter = {698}, abstract = {

Data are essential in all areas of geophysics. They are used to better understand and manage systems, either directly or via models. Given the complexity and spatiotemporal variability of geophysical systems (e.g., precipitation), a lack of sufficient data is a perennial problem, which is exacerbated by various drivers, such as climate change and urbanization. In recent years, crowdsourcing has become increasingly prominent as a means of supplementing data obtained from more traditional sources, particularly due to its relatively low implementation cost and ability to increase the spatial and/or temporal resolution of data significantly. Given the proliferation of different crowdsourcing methods in geophysics and the promise they have shown, it is timely to assess the state of the art in this field, to identify potential issues and map out a way forward. In this paper, crowdsourcing-based data acquisition methods that have been used in seven domains of geophysics, including weather, precipitation, air pollution, geography, ecology, surface water, and natural hazard management, are discussed based on a review of 162 papers. In addition, a novel framework for categorizing these methods is introduced and applied to the methods used in the seven domains of geophysics considered in this review. This paper also features a review of 93 papers dealing with issues that are common to data acquisition methods in different domains of geophysics, including the management of crowdsourcing projects, data quality, data processing, and data privacy. In each of these areas, the current status is discussed and challenges and future directions are outlined.

}, keywords = {big data, categorisation, crowdsourcing, data collection, geophysics}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000616}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018RG000616}, author = {Feifei Zheng and Ruoling Tao and Holger Maier and Linda See and Dragan Savic and Tuqiao Zhang and Qiuwen Chang and Thaine H. Assump{\c c}{\~a}o and Pan Yang and Bardia Heidari and J{\"o}rg Rieckermann and Barbara Minsker and Weiwei Bi and Ximing Cai and Dimitri Solomatine and Ioana Popescu} } @article {bnh-5034, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning in emergency management: annual project report 2017-18}, number = {420}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The focus of this project is on providing simple practical tools that can help people to make better decisions and manage teams more effectively in emergency management.\  In addition to the creation of the tools themselves we are also seeking to understand how agencies can better utilise the products from research.\  The project therefore has three streams: team monitoring, decision making and organisational learning.

}, issn = {420}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-5214, title = {Demographic profiling: Victorian bushfires 2009 case study}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Victorian Black Saturday bushfire affected areas to present a baseline of their overall socioeconomic characteristics, drilling in on particular attributes (e.g. home ownership) to provide further context to some of our more puzzling research findings. The profiling is area-based (either SA2 or LGA, depending on available information) and utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source, in line with project methodology.

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, issn = {444}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5623, title = {Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {69}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, abstract = {

Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in\ vulnerability\ assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two\ state-of-the-artdecision support\ methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we use RDM to identify a small set of conditions that cause unacceptable impacts from\ coastal flooding, signifying that an adaptation tipping point is reached. Flexible adaptation pathways can then be designed using the DAPP framework. The methodology is illustrated using a case study in Australia and underpinned by a\ geographic information system\ model. The results suggest that conditions identified in scenario discovery direct the attention of decision-makers towards a small number of uncertainties most influential on the vulnerability of a community to changing flood patterns. This can facilitate targeted data collection and coastal\ monitoring activities\ when resources are scarce. Importantly, it can also be employed to illustrate more broadly how uncontrolled\ societal development, land use and historic building regulations might exacerbate flood impacts in low-lying urban areas. Notwithstanding the challenges that remain around\ simulation modelling and\ detection of\ environmental change, the results from our study suggest that RDM can be embedded within a DAPP framework to better plan for changing coastal flood risks.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, Inundation, Tipping point, uncertainty, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.01.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971517304520}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @article {bnh-5264, title = {Determining the minimum sampling frequency for ground measurements of burn severity}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, abstract = {

Understanding burn severity is essential to provide an overview of the precursory conditions leading to fires as well as understanding the constraints placed on fire management services when mitigating their effects. Determining the minimum sampling frequency for ground measurements is not only essential for accurately assessing burn severity, but also for fire managers to better allocate resources and reduce the time and costs associated with sampling. In this study, field sampling methods for assessing burn severity are analysed statistically for 10 burn sites across Victoria, Australia, with varying spatial extents, topography and vegetation. Random and transect sampling methods are compared against each other using a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the minimum sample size needed for a difference of 0.02 (2\%) in the severity classes proportions relative to the population proportions. We show that, on average, transect sampling requires a sampling rate of 3.16\% compared with 0.59\% for random sampling. We also find that sites smaller than 400 ha require a sampling rate of between 1.4 and 2.8 times that of sites larger than 400 ha to achieve the same error. The information obtained from this study will assist fire managers to better allocate resources for assessing burn severity.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF17055}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17055}, author = {Alexander Holmes and Sarah Harris and Nigel Tapper and Christoph R{\"u}diger} } @article {bnh-4998, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour}, number = {417}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Flame spread is an important process in the propagation of bushfires. The likelihood of ignition and combustion rates of fuels are dependent on the type and nature of the heat flux. The majority of previous research has used static heat flux, whereby a consistent heating source is used to ignite samples in a laboratory setting. This is despite the highly dynamic heating regimes typically observed during structural and wildland fires.

}, keywords = {Fire, fire behaviour., fire modelling, fire severity, modelling}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6623, title = {Developing a (semi) automatic calibration procedure for cellular automata based land use models}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Land-use change models are used to understand the wide-ranging impacts that land-use changes have on a region. Effective modelling of land-use changes must capture multiple, mutually influential drivers. A common framework for modelling land-use changes uses Cellular Automata (CA), which have seen a growth in application driven by the availability of generic modelling platforms, shifting the focus of research about Land-Use Cellular Automata (LUCA) models from development to application, with a particular focus on calibration. Calibration of LUCA models is complex, as land-use change is a path-dependent process with uncertain outcomes captured by a number of model parameters. Of note are LUCA models that use a transition potential, which are traditionally calibrated using a manual approach, a process that is time-consuming and lacks objectivity. Hence, there has been a focus on the development of automatic calibration methods for these types of models. To automate calibration, metrics are used to capture two separate properties of performance: locational agreement, the match of pixels between simulated outputs and the corresponding observed data, and landscape pattern structure, the inferred realism of land-use change processes captured by the difference between the observed and simulated landscape patterns. The primary objective of this research is to develop improved automatic calibration methods for transition potential based LUCA models. There are two common approaches, optimisation-based and process-specific. The major contributions of this body of work are the development of improved versions of each type of approach, and the development of a hybrid method combining the advantages of the two approaches. First, a generic multi-objective optimisation framework for automatic calibration of transition potential LUCA models was developed in Paper 1 (Chapter 2) that allows for the exploration of trade-offs between the model performance objectives. Second, a process-specific semi-automatic calibration method that integrates objective analysis with discursive input to facilitate efficient calibration of neighbourhood rules (the main calibration parameter for this type of model) within a limited computational budget was developed in Paper 2 (Chapter 3). Finally, a generic framework for hybrid automatic calibration, which integrates domain knowledge into a multi-objective optimisation approach, was developed in Paper 3 (Chapter 4). The utility of each method was demonstrated via case study applications, showing promising potential for future applications of LUCA models to support long term planning and policy development.

}, keywords = {automatic callibration, cellular automata, land-use models}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/119790}, author = {Charles Newland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6715, title = {Developing a wildfire surveillance algorithm for geostationary satellites}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfire surveillance is an important aspect of e↵ective wildfire management, requiring near continuous observations to detect and monitor fires. Geostationary satellites have the potential to meet this challenge, capturing full disk images every 10 to 30 minutes at ground sample distances down to 500 m for some sensors. However, the MIR (Middle Infrared) and TIR (Thermal Infrared) channels on geostationary satellite sensors have a coarse ground sample distance of 2-4 km. Currently, fire detection algorithms depend on these channels to detect thermal anomalies. The coarse spatial resolution in the MIR and TIR channels limits the application of geostationary satellite for wildfire surveillance. This thesis looks to fully exploit the potential of geostationary satellites for wildfire surveillance through a multi-spatial and multi-temporal approach.

The first research question in this thesis, develops and tests an algorithm to improve the wildfire surveillance capabilities of the geostationary satellites. The new algorithm utilises the MIR, NIR and visible channels, linking them to biophysical processes on the ground. The MIR channel is used to detect thermal anomalies, the NIR channel is used to detect changes in vegetation cover, and the visible channel detects smoke from the fire. By combining these detections, or observations, fire surveillance can be achieved at the highest ground sampling resolution available (typically in the visible wavelength channels). Initial algorithm development and testing were conducted on the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) sensor onboard the Himawari-8 satellite. The MIR, NIR and RED channels on AHI have 2 km, 1 km and 500 m ground sampling distances respectively, enabling the new algorithm to detect 2 km thermal anomalies and 500 m fire-line pixels. Fire-line pixels is a new product designed to\ detect the trailing edge of the fire.

Quantifiable methods for assessing algorithm performance in geostationary satellites are dicult to apply due to their high temporal resolution and lack of concurrent in-situ information. The second research question investigates methods for assessing the performance by considering the near continuous temporal sampling of geostationary satellites and the higher spatial ground sampling resolution a↵orded from LEO (Low Earth Orbiting) satellite observations. The study examines di↵erent evaluation methods and suggests a three-step process to provide the optimum performance evaluation for geostationary wildfire surveillance products, inter-compared with LEO satellite-based thermal anomaly detections.

Algorithm performance is further evaluated in research question three using the intercomparison method developed in research question 2 and applied to case study fires over Northern Australia. Subsequently, the algorithm is evaluated using an annual dataset (2016) comprising of nine study areas across Australia (totalling 360.000 km2) stratified by tree canopy cover. The algorithm reported an omission error of 27 \% at 2 km ground resolution when compared to VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) hotspots over the nine study grids. In Northern Australia, the algorithm detected fires up to three hours before LEO observations due to the high temporal frequency of observations. Furthermore, in comparison to MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) hotspots, there was a 73 \% chance of detecting fire activity at the location of the MODIS hotspot, before the MODIS overpass. The algorithm also demonstrated a 40 \% detection probability for fires less than 14 ha over Northern Australian woodlands. The fire-line pixels with a ground sampling distance of 500 m demonstrated a 25 \% commission error when compared to VIIRS hotspots over the nine study grids. Over Northern Australia, this figure was 7 \% inter-compared to Landsat-8 burnt scars.

The fourth research question applied the developed algorithm to the SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Image) sensor onboard the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. SEVIRI has an operational fire product (FIR (Active Fire Monitoring)) which provides 3 km ground resolution hotspots using the MIR and TIR channels. The algorithm initially developed for AHI was modified to work with SEVIRI 3 km MIR channel and the High-Resolution Visible (HRV) channel (1 km). An inter-comparison\ of the modified algorithm with FIR products showed a 28 \% and 16 \% improvement in commission and omission errors respectively over a large case study fire in Portugal. The modified algorithm also improved the SEVIRI wildfire surveillance ground sampling resolution to 1 km taking advantage of the HRV channel.

The algorithm developed in this study demonstrates a novel approach to utilise geostationary satellites for wildfire surveillance with improved spatial resolution. Compared to the 2 km thermal anomaly hotspots derived through existing algorithms for AHI, the new algorithm provides 2 km thermal anomaly detections and 500 m fire-line pixels with performance comparable to that of medium resolution LEO satellites. Near-real time implementation of the algorithm has the potential to provide high temporal fire surveillance capabilities. The fire-line pixels from the algorithm could also be used to derive fire behaviour parameters such as heading and speed, providing an essential tool for wildfire surveillance in remote parts of Australia and other areas, where resources can only be deployed for a hand full of high-risk fires.

}, keywords = {AHI-FSA, HIMAWARI-8, inter-comparison, SEVIRI, wildfire surveillance}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162721}, author = {Chathura Wickramasinghe} } @article {bnh-5203, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels: Final data report}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The major hazard in coastal regions is inundation through extreme water levels generated in the ocean through different mechanisms such as storm surges and tsunamis or through a combination of effects such as a relatively small storm surge coinciding with high astronomical tides. With rising in sea level, given water levels will be exceeded more and more frequently as progressively less severe storm conditions are required to achieve that water level.\ Therefore, it is critical that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and erosion risk-based management and for future planning. To address this concern, this study estimated present day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to storm surges, tides and mean sea level around the whole coastline of Australia through the application of a numerical model.

The SCHISM hydrodynamic model, forced by TPXO tides and JRA55 atmospheric reanalysis (wind and air pressure), was successfully applied to produce a 59 year sealevel hindcast (1958-2016) for the entire Australian region.\ The outputs provide uninterrupted hourly sea level records at \<1 km resolution around the Australian coast. Improvements compared to the previous Haigh et al. [1] dataset included: extending the hindcast by six years including several\ record storm surge events, higher spatial resolution, improved meteorological\ forcing, and 3-D hydrodynamic model implementation. Other physical\ processes, missing from earlier studies, were also examined in detail including:\ effects of surface gravity waves, continental shelf waves, and meteorological\ tsunamis.\ 

Extreme value analysis has been applied to the sea level data to predict\ Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) at ~1km spacing around the entire\ Australian coastline including islands. These statistics and relevant plots and\ time series data have been made available to the public via an interactive\ web tool (www.ozsealevelx.org), providing a consistent, accessible, up-todate\ dataset\ for\ use\ by\ coastal\ planners and emergency managers.

}, issn = {439}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic} } @article {bnh-5202, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels: web user guide}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The major hazard in coastal regions is inundation through extreme water levels generated in the ocean through different mechanisms such as storm surges and tsunamis or through a combination of effects such as a relatively small storm surge coinciding with high astronomical tides. With rising in sea level, given water levels will be exceeded more and more frequently as progressively less severe storm conditions are required to achieve that water level.

Therefore, it is critical that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels\ are accurately evaluated to inform flood and erosion risk-based management\ and for future planning. To address this concern, this study estimated present\ day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to storm surges, tides and\ mean sea level around the whole coastline of Australia through the application\ of a numerical model.\ 

The SCHISM hydrodynamic model, forced by TPXO tides and JRA55\ atmospheric reanalysis (wind and air pressure), was successfully applied to\ produce a 59 year sealevel hindcast (1958-2016) for the entire Australian region.\ 

The outputs provide uninterrupted hourly sea level records at \<1 km resolution around the Australian coast. Improvements compared to the previous Haigh et al. [2014b] dataset included: extending the hindcast by six years including several record storm surge events, higher spatial resolution, improved meteorological forcing, and 3-D hydrodynamic model implementation. Other physical processes, missing from earlier studies, were also examined in detail including: effects of surface gravity waves, continental shelf waves, and meteorological tsunamis.

Extreme value analysis has been applied to the sea level data to predict Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) at ~1km spacing around the entire Australian coastline including islands. These statistics and relevant plots and time series data have been made available to the public via an interactive web tool (www.ozsealevelx.org), providing a consistent, accessible, up-to-date dataset for use by coastal planners and emergency managers.

This report provides an overview of the website and describes of how to access and interpret the available extreme sea level data.

}, issn = {438}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic} } @article {bnh-4509, title = {Did Harvey learn from Katrina? Initial observations of the response to companion animals during Hurricane Harvey}, journal = {Animals}, volume = {8}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, chapter = {47}, abstract = {

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 became the genesis of animal emergency management and created significant reforms in the US particularly the passage of the Pets Emergency and Transportation Standards Act in 2006 that required state and local emergency management arrangements to be pet- and service animal-inclusive. More than a decade later Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf states with all 68 directly related deaths occurring in the state of Texas. In this study, six key officials involved in the response underwent a semi-structured interview to investigate the impact of the PETS Act on preparedness and response. Though the results have limitations due to the low sample size, it was found that the PETS Act and the lessons of Hurricane Katrina had contributed to a positive cultural shift to including pets (companion animals) in emergency response. However, there was a general theme that plans required under the PETS Act were under-developed and many of the animal response lessons from previous emergencies remain unresolved. The study also observed the first empirical case of disaster hoarding which highlights the need for animal law enforcement agencies to be active in emergency response.

}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/8/4/47}, author = {Glassey, Steve} } @conference {bnh-6144, title = {Direct Numerical Simulation of Confined Wall Plumes}, booktitle = {21st Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, address = { Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

We present results from the direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a wall attached thermal plume in a confined box. The plume originates from a local line heat source of length, L, placed at the bottom left corner of the box. The Reynolds number of the wall plume, based on box height and buoyant velocity scale, is ReH = 14530 and a parametric study is carried out for boxes of two different aspect ratios (ratio of box width to box height) for a particular value of L. In the simulation, the plume develops along the vertical side wall while remaining attached to it before spreading across the top wall to form a buoyant fluid layer and eventually moving downwards and filling the whole box. Further, the original filling box model of Baines and Turner is modified to incorporate the wall shear stress and the results from the DNS are compared against it. A reasonable agreement is observed for the volume and momentum fluxes in the quiescent uniform environment and also for the time-dependent buoyancy profile calculated far away from the plume.

}, keywords = {direct numerical simulation, Simulation modeling, thermal plume}, url = {https://people.eng.unimelb.edu.au/imarusic/proceedings/21/Contribution_790_final.pdf}, author = {Nitheesh George and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi} } @book {bnh-4405, title = {Disaster Management in Australia: Government Coordination in a Time of Crisis}, year = {2018}, pages = {180}, publisher = {Routledge}, organization = {Routledge}, address = {Oxon}, issn = {978-1-138-04912-3}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @conference {bnh-4770, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: income effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on disaster-hit individuals}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Using the rich and extensive Australian Longitudinal Census Dataset (ALCD) of 2006 and 2011, this study investigates the effects of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (BSB) 2009 on the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit areas.\  In a unique approach, we compute the share of burnt areas in the total surface area of the Statistical Area-2 (SA2) to measure the geographical variations in disaster severity, and match this measure with the individuals{\textquoteright} income and demographics data in the ALCD. Our methodology is based on a difference-indifferences approach, whereby we compare the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit SA2s before and after the catastrophe with those of individuals who live in the neighbouring SA2s with no bushfire exposure.\  Our results are novel, informative, and have significant policy implications. We find that the average income effect of the BSB was negative and statistically significant for individuals who lived in the disaster-hit SA2s between 2006 and 2011. Our estimates suggest that an individual living in an SA2 with average bushfire severity measure experienced an estimated 14\% to 21\% income loss following the disaster.\  \ An additional crucial finding is related to the income differences between those who stayed in the disaster-hit areas following the disaster and those who moved out of the burnt areas. The negative income effect is not only significant for non-movers, but also greater in magnitude for those who migrated out of the disaster-hit SA2s following the catastrophe. This finding suggests that individuals might have made their out-migration decisions based on severe income losses after the disaster. We conclude that migration decisions of individuals into or out of disaster-hit areas is an important future avenue of research that could offer substantial policy implications for community resilience and economic recovery post disasters.\ 

}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5161, title = {Distribution of wind loads in metal-clad roofing structures}, journal = {Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {144}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, abstract = {

The roof is the part that experiences the largest wind load and is usually the most vulnerable part of a house. However, data on how the wind loads are transferred through the roof structure are scarce. The fluctuating nature and variable spatial distribution of wind loads combined with the structural response can cause significant challenges for assessing the distribution or sharing of loads in a roof. Such studies are required to obtain more reliable estimates on vulnerability assessment to windstorms. This paper describes the transmission of wind loads from the pressure on the cladding through the cladding-to-batten connections to the batten-to-truss connections on a roofing system typical of that in many contemporary houses constructed in cyclonic regions of Australia. The study found that the use of normal design practices can significantly underestimate connection loads when highly correlated large-scale wind pressures act on these roof systems.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001992}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29ST.1943-541X.0001992}, author = {Nandana Jayasinghe and John Ginger and David Henderson and George Walker} } @conference {bnh-4781, title = {Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Although diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is not a new concept or area of practice, for the Emergency Management sector there has been little clarity of what effective D\&I looks like for the sector. This includes how it is implemented within the emergency management (EM) context, how that context itself is changing due to increasingly dynamic social, environmental and economic drivers and how D\&I is best measured and implemented. In its first year, the project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, has undertaken a number of activities with end users, involving developing a detailed project plan, undertaking a literature review, and conducting three case studies and a community survey. The case studies involved desktop studies of organisational capabilities and histories, and interviewing people within each organisation and in three different communities. This presentation covers the case studies, community interviews and community survey.

Using a systemic analysis that focuses on decision making, it examines the key synergies and differences found in each organisation in relation to past and present practice. Barriers, needs, opportunities and benefits for D\&I in each organisation as seen by their employees have been collated. It also examines how each organisation has evolved. Their capacity to serve the changing agenda that D\&I needs to operate within, and how D\&I can help develop that capacity is also examined. Views from the community of the EM sector are also canvassed. These findings have been used to develop a draft diversity and inclusion framework to guide the next stage of this research.

}, author = {Celeste Young and Joanne Pyke and Neelam Maharaj and Craig Cormick and Bruce Rasmussen and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-4498, title = {Diversity And Inclusion: Building Strength And Capability Literature Review}, number = {360}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, abstract = {

The recent Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) National Council stance {\textendash} that there are {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} in emergency services, and the recognition that emergency services need to better reflect the communities they work to serve (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, National Emergency Management Committee, 2011) {\textendash} is driving new programs and policies in this area. There is also a growing awareness that there are a number of benefits that can result from diversity, particularly to the community. The strategy also recognises that being able to interact and communicate effectively with diverse communities is critical to the building of resilience and reduction of risk associated with natural hazard events.

The context for the EMS is changing as a result of dynamic social (changing demographics), environmental (the changing nature of natural hazard risk) and economic drivers (the increasing cost of responding to natural hazard events, resource constraints and changing technologies). These are driving the need for change and innovation across organisations in the EMS if they are to remain sustainable into the future. It is important to understand how these different factors influence and shape decision making, and the opportunities and barriers that organisations face when implementing policies relating to diversity and inclusion.

When looked at holistically, human diversity is broad, and its study bridges both the grey and refereed literature. This is because its nature is systemic, cultural and institutional {\textendash} touching every aspect of society. For an organisation to be successful in this area, it needs to define the system in which diversity exists, the specific context that diversity is being implemented in, and the different stages of the process of implementing diversity. A critical part of implementing diversity is the creation of inclusive workplaces that embrace and effectively manage difference. This needs to be combined with organisational change and innovation across all levels, within and beyond their organisations. You have existing organisations, so what is being created {\textendash} the organisation or a strategic approach? To do this requires an understanding of where these differences lie in the diversity system of the organisations and the communities that surround them, and where organisations have agency and the ability to act. It also requires an understanding of the interactions within specific contexts between different actors, and the personal and organisational attributes, characteristics and values that support effective diversity actions.

This review provides a preliminary overview of the literature related to systemic and implementation process-focused aspects of human diversity and their relevance to EMS organisations. It examines the diversity and inclusion literature to assess how it can support the practice of implementing effective diversity and inclusion within organisations, with a specific focus on Australian EMS organisations that work with bushfire and natural hazards. It also summarises the current context and factors that shape the Australian EMS, and provides a working definition of effective diversity and inclusion for further development. Finally, it discusses the different components that make up the process of implementing diversity policy and plans within EMS organisations, and some of the challenges for both research and practice. Its key purpose is to identify areas of literature that are potentially useful for the development of a framework to support implementation of diversity throughout the Australian EMS.

}, keywords = {change management and innovation., diversity in emergency services/emergency management sector, diversity systems and diversity process, effective diversity and inclusion, inclusion in the emergency services/emergency management sector, measurement of effective diversity and inclusion, systemic diversity}, isbn = {978-1-86272-780-9}, issn = {360}, author = {Celeste Young and Joanne Pyke and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen and Roger Jones} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6624, title = {Domestic architecture and the perception of risk in bushfire-prone areas}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, school = {University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis examines the way in which the architecture of a house, specifically construction materials and the structure{\textquoteright}s immediate environs, influences residents{\textquoteright} perception of bushfire risk. Three research questions were used to consider different aspects of risk perception for domestic architecture within a bushfire context. These questions were: {\textbullet} Do residents living in bushfire-prone areas of Australia give the same bushfire risk rating to their locality and their house? Do these reflect the bushfire risk for the same area as assessed by the state fire authority? {\textbullet} When anticipating a bushfire, which parts of their current house do residents in bushfire-prone areas of Australia believe to be the safest and which parts the most vulnerable? {\textbullet} What architectural interventions might change residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of the bushfire risk of their homes? The method used to test the research questions was mixed methods with pragmatism as the research worldview. A questionnaire containing both quantitative and qualitative questions was distributed to residents in eight sample sites selected from bushfire-prone areas of the Blue Mountains and the Central Coast of NSW, Australia. The questionnaire was completed by 252 respondents either in print or electronic form. The majority of respondents gave a lower bushfire risk rating for their local area than their local fire authority, the NSW Rural Fire Service. The majority of respondents gave the same or a lower risk rating for their house than for their local area. During a bushfire respondents indicated they intended to take shelter in up to twenty different places/parts of their house and immediate environs. While the bathroom was the most frequent choice, it represented less than one quarter of responses given. Respondents identified up to ten different places/parts of their house and immediate environs that they intended to avoid during a bushfire, with upstairs rooms and spaces being the most frequent choices. Materials used in the construction of homes did not appear to influence how respondents allocated the bushfire risk to their house. Rather it was the area directly surrounding their house and its proximity to bushland (particularly National Parks) that respondents used to determine the bushfire risk of their property. Non-architectural variables such as gender, age, pet ownership, property ownership, and responsibility for dependents had little effect on the way respondents allocated their bushfire risk. The age of the house also did not influence respondents{\textquoteright} perception of their bushfire risk with respondents in houses constructed to the latest building codes (AS 3959) not indicating that their houses had greater bushfire resistance. Respondents identified fifteen architectural improvements to increase the safety of houses during a bushfire; the most frequently ones were, roof sprinklers and the clearing of vegetation close to the house. For architectural improvement, four overarching themes emerged: specific bushfire-resistant additions; building construction; cleared space/limited vegetation; and building maintenance/defence. The findings of this research, when evaluated against industry knowledge, may be useful in developing new regulatory standards or providing advice in relation to new or existing homes in wild/forest/bushfire-prone areas of the world.

}, keywords = {architecture, Bushfire, land management, Risk perception}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/18959}, author = {Brown, Douglas} } @article {bnh-5042, title = {Driving into floodwater: A systematic review of risks, behaviour and mitigation}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {953}, abstract = {

This systematic review summarises the findings of research focused on the risks associated with driving into floodwater. The review aims to compare and document the magnitude of the problem internationally; identifying the risk factors; exploring the application of theories and presence of theoretical models to explain people{\textquoteright}s risky behaviour; and documenting the intervention strategies utilised or proposed. Literature were searched from a number of databases (e.g. PsycInfo, ScienceDirect, Informit) for publication dates to 31 August 2017, then assessed based on their titles, abstracts and full texts and finally 24 articles were selected. This review compares flood fatality data from four countries (Australia, United States, Greece, and Sweden), groups identified risk factors from these selected studies into seven categories, and proposes a holistic integrated intervention model. The results of the review indicate that studies were predominantly conducted in Australia (10 studies) and USA (7 studies). People{\textquoteright}s decisions to drive into, or turn back from, floodwater are identified as a consequence of both their risk perception and the combined impact of all other factors (e.g. individual, social, environmental etc.) that interdependently contribute to shape decision-making, The theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was the only theory that has been utilised within the literature to understand drivers{\textquoteright} willingness to take risks. Improving people{\textquoteright}s decision-making through educational initiatives, advanced structural mechanisms, regulating existing edicts, and regularly evaluating the effectiveness of current strategies are identified as the best approaches to addressing the challenges in this area. Findings suggest that future studies require data and analysis from a larger range of countries, more comparative analyses within and between countries, an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and their relative level of influence and a greater application of behavioural and decision making theories.

}, keywords = {Behavioural theories, Driving, Drowning, Fatalities, Flood, Risk factors, Risk mitigation measures, Risk perception, Vehicles}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.07.007}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300323}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed} } @article {bnh-6042, title = {Dynamic Behavior of Indonesian Bridges using Interferometric Radar Technology}, journal = {Electronic Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {18}, year = {2018}, month = {2018}, pages = {23-29}, abstract = {

Structural deterioration of critical transport infrastructures (e.g., bridges) represents trillion dollars of transportation budget. Inspection and monitoring structural deterioration of bridge structures require an innovative method for an improved quality and accuracy of measurements. This paper presents and discusses the capabilities of the recent advanced interferomertic radar technique (IBIS-S) for remote monitoring structural vibations of bridges (e.g., displacement and natural frequency). Three case studies bridges in Indonesia were selected for field measurements. The research outcomes demonstrate the potential use of interferometric radar technology as an efficient way for structural health assessment and monitoring of bridges under operational condition.

}, keywords = {Bridge, displacement, Dynamic behavior, IBIS-S, Natural frequency}, url = {http://www.ejse.org/Archives/Fulltext/2018-1\%20Sp/2018-1-3.pdf}, author = {Maizuar Maizuar and Elisa Lumantarna and Sofi Massoud and Oktavianus Yusak and Lihai Zhang and Colin Duffield and Priyan Mendis} } @article {bnh-5151, title = {Earthquakes don{\textquoteright}t kill, built environment does: evidence from cross-country data}, journal = {Economic Modelling}, volume = {70}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {458-468}, chapter = {458}, abstract = {

Earthquakes are often attributed to a myriad of human casualties, but its variation is quite remarkable across countries. This paper first presents a conceptual analysis to understand why earthquake casualties vary across countries. After that, using a rich panel dataset of countries observed over half a century, from 1950 to 2009, this paper provides empirical evidence that the middle-income countries are more susceptible to earthquake casualties because of its higher level of vulnerable buildings relative to the low- and high-income countries. This finding retains its robustness when I use different income-based criteria of country classification, control for earthquake probabilities, capture institutional effects, and devise alternative specifications. The results suggest that the governments can significantly reduce earthquake casualties by emphasising on the\ quality{\textemdash}rather than\ quantity{\textemdash}of built environment through enforcing quake-resistant regulations.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.027}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317312579?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Habibur Rahman} } @article {bnh-5142, title = {An ecosystem services framework to evaluate indigenous and local peoples{\textquoteright} connections with nature}, journal = {Ecosystem Services}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {111-125}, chapter = {111}, abstract = {

Indigenous and local peoples{\textquoteright} connections with nature are not only limited to the benefits or services people derive from ecosystems, as considered by international frameworks, but also entail peoples{\textquoteright} capabilities (knowledges and skills) that enable people to derive those benefits. Applying Sen{\textquoteright}s (1993) Capability Approach, this paper proposes an ecosystem services framework that underscores peoples{\textquoteright} capabilities along with well-being benefits, to inform policy decision-making about the value of natural resources towards Indigenous and local peoples{\textquoteright} well-being. We offer an economic perspective of considering Indigenous and local estates as a source of opportunities, and construct an integrated framework based on six case studies across the globe. We argue that supporting Indigenous and local peoples to utilize and build capabilities to manage natural systems will deliver manifold benefits to them as well as to the wider public. Moreover, learning Indigenous and local ethics to care for nature will help many of us to better manage and value our fast depleting natural resources.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.03.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617306782$\#$!}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Luke Preece and Jaramar Villareal-Rosas and Juma J. Kegamba and Kiran Paudyal and Tui Warmenhoven and P.S. RamaKrishnan} } @article {bnh-4461, title = {Effective Representation of River Geometry in Hydraulic Flood Forecast Models}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {54}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Bathymetric data are a critical input to hydraulic models. However, river depth and shape cannot be systematically observed remotely, and field data are both scarce and expensive to collect. In flood modeling, river roughness and geometry compensate for each other, with different parameter sets often being able to map model predictions equally well to the observed data, commonly known as equifinality. This study presents a numerical experiment to investigate an effective yet parsimonious representation of channel geometry that can be used for operational flood forecasting. The LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model was used to simulate a hypothetical flood event in the Clarence catchment (Australia). A high-resolution model simulation based on accurate bathymetric field data was used to benchmark coarser model simulations based on simplified river geometries. These simplified river geometries were derived from a combination of globally available empirical formulations, remote sensing data, and a limited number of measurements. Model predictive discrepancy between simulations with field data and simplified geometries allowed an assessment of the geometry impact on inundation dynamics. In this study site, the channel geometrical representation for a reliable inundation forecast could be achieved using remote sensing-derived river width values combined with a few measurements of river depth sampled at strategic locations. Furthermore, this study showed that spatially distributed remote sensing-derived inundation levels at the very early stages of a flood event have the potential to support the effective diagnosis of errors in model implementations.

}, keywords = {artificial neural networks (ANNs), calibration and evaluation, data allocation, data splitting, Emergency management, floods., hydrological models, model evaluation bias}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021765}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017WR021765/full}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-4977, title = {Effects of prescribed fire and post-fire rainfall on mercury mobilization and subsequent contamination assessment in a legacy mine site in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {National Library of Medicine}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {9}, chapter = {144}, abstract = {

Prescribed fire conducted in fire-prone areas is a cost-effective choice for forest management, but it also affects many of the physicochemical and bio-geological properties of the forest soil, in a similar manner to wild fires. The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the mercury mobilization after a prescribed fire and the subsequent temporal changes in concentration. A prescribed fire was conducted in a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia, in late August 2015 and soil sample collection and analyses were carried out two days before and two days after the fire, followed by collection at the end of each season and after an intense rainfall event in September 2016. Results revealed the occurrence of mercury volatilization (8.3-97\%) during the fire, and the mercury concentration displayed a significant difference (p\ \<\ 0.05) before and immediately after the fire. Integrated assessment with number of pollution indices has shown that the study site is extremely contaminated with mercury during all the sampling events, and this poses a serious ecological risk due to the health impacts of mercury on human and ecosystems. In times of climate fluctuation with concomitant increase in forest fire (including prescribed fire), and subsequent precipitation and runoff, the potential for an increased amount of mercury being mobilized is of heighted significance. Therefore, it is recommended that prescribed fire should be cautiously considered as a forest management strategy in any mercury affected landscapes.

}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28987403}, author = {Joji Abraham and Singarayer Florentine and Kim Dowling} } @article {bnh-4424, title = {Efficiency of Individual Tree Detection Approaches Based on Light-Weight and Low-Cost UAS Imagery in Australian Savannas}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {
The reliability of airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) for delineating individual trees and estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) has been proven in a diverse range of ecosystems, but can be difficult and costly to commission. Point clouds derived from structure from motion (SfM) matching techniques obtained from unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could be a feasible low-cost alternative to airborne LiDAR scanning for canopy parameter retrieval. This study assesses the extent to which SfM three-dimensional (3D) point clouds{\textemdash}obtained from a light-weight mini-UAS quadcopter with an inexpensive consumer action GoPro camera{\textemdash}can efficiently and effectively detect individual trees, measure tree heights, and provide AGB estimates in Australian tropical savannas. Two well-established canopy maxima and watershed segmentation tree detection algorithms were tested on canopy height models (CHM) derived from SfM imagery. The influence of CHM spatial resolution on tree detection accuracy was analysed, and the results were validated against existing high-resolution airborne LiDAR data. We found that the canopy maxima and watershed segmentation routines produced similar tree detection rates (~70\%) for dominant and co-dominant trees, but yielded low detection rates (\<35\%) for suppressed and small trees due to poor representativeness in point clouds and overstory occlusion. Although airborne LiDAR provides higher tree detection rates and more accurate estimates of tree heights, we found SfM image matching to be an adequate low-cost alternative for the detection of dominant and co-dominant tree stands.
}, keywords = {biomass, canopy height, low-cost UAS, segmentation, single tree detection, structure from motion}, doi = {10.3390/rs10020161 }, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/2/161/htm}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs and Stefan Maier and Shaun R Levick and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-4803, title = {Emergency management opportunities for remote indigenous communities in northern Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Despite frequent exposure to severe natural hazards including extensive bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods, remote Indigenous communities across northern Australia typically have little engagement in managing, mitigating or planning for such hazards. The BNHCRC scenario planning project explores how remote communities can effectively and sustainably mitigate the risks of natural hazards, and develop effective partnerships with emergency management (EM) decision-making processes. This research integrates and analyses EM resources and services available through various agencies responsible for remote locations, and related EM costs. The project provides opportunities for responsible agencies to engage and plan with remote communities to deliver efficient, cost-effective and culturally appropriate EM services. Scenario planning workshops, applying business as usual and enhanced risk mitigation scenarios, are underway involving active participation of multiple stakeholders including rangers from remote locations namely, Borroloola, Hermannsburg and Yuendumu, representatives from emergency services in the Northern Territory (NT Emergency Services, Fire and Rescue Services, Bushfires NT), the Northern and Central Land Councils, and other local organizations. Initial discussions with rangers and Traditional Owners from the selected remote communities, representatives from the relevant EM agencies, and other interested parties have indicated keen interest for participating in the project. Workshop discussions and associated data analyses will be presented, offering new insights into the delivery of cost-effective and improved EM services that can empower vulnerable remote communities.\ 

}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-5017, title = {Emergency preparedness and planning for animals: a case study in the Blue Mountains, NSW}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {50}, abstract = {

Planning for animals in the response and recovery phases of disasters is crucial to mitigate the negative effects that the loss or separation of animals can have. The human-animal bond can influence people{\textquoteright}s decisions during emergencies including how they will respond and when or if they evacuate. This paper uses results of a survey of residents in the Blue Mountains, NSW, who own animals to identify their emergency preparedness and their intended actions in an emergency event. The survey revealed complex animal ownership patterns and respondents showed strong bonds with their pets and were motivated to protect their animals. There was a highlevel of self-reported general emergency preparedness and almost three-quarters of respondents said they included their animals in their emergency planning. However, more than half were unsure where they would take them and a third were unsure if they could take them. Findings suggest that preparedness information be locally specific and consider the complexities of animal ownership, including the need for species-specific resources and information about animals that cannot be evacuated. A case study is used to examine and understand the links between the human-animal bond, disaster preparedness and resilience and the recovery of individuals and communities.

}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/6100/ajem-201810-mccarthy-bigelow-taylor-animal-planning.pdf}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy and Jenny Bigelow} } @conference {bnh-4959, title = {The emergency service volunteer framework: guiding good management in brigades, groups and units}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Volunteers are the backbone WA{\textquoteright}s emergency services, providing support to\ keep the community safe on land or water, come rain, hail, or searing heat.

Turnover rates among emergency services volunteers are high and each lost\ volunteer reflects a loss not only in terms of the financial investment from\ training and equipment, but also of valuable skills and experience.\  The\ Department of Fire and Emergency Services WA (DFES) has conducted\ extensive consultation with volunteers over the past five years in an effort to\ improve the volunteer experience and retention.\ One of the concerns raised during consultation was around the preparedness\ of volunteer leaders to effectively manage their brigade, group, or unit (BGU)\ and the effect that this has on volunteer satisfaction and retention. Volunteer\ leaders are themselves volunteers and it is important that they are provided\ with the necessary training, support, and resources to do their jobs effectively.

To address this concern, DFES partnered with researchers from the University of\ Western Australia (UWA) to investigate gaps in leadership capability and\ create a framework for managing volunteers across the emergency services\ that would provide concrete support and guidance for volunteer leaders.\ 

}, author = {Courtenay McGill and Jennifer Pidgeon and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e}} } @conference {bnh-4796, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: a sector-wide, management perspective}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

What is emergency volunteering going to look like in 2030? How (and by whom) is it going to be organised? How can the emergency management sector best enable the value of this volunteering for communities - before, during and after emergencies? Researchers at RMIT University are seeking answers to these questions in a three-year project for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.\  This presentation shares insights from the first stage of this project. It provides a sector-wide, management perspective on what the sector most needs to do to adapt to the future of volunteering. It is based on interviews with 27 managers in volunteerism from across Australian government and non-government emergency management organisations (EMOs).\  Volunteerism managers paint a strong picture of the preferred future as being one where volunteering and management approaches are more flexible and adaptive to the needs of both communities and volunteers, where EMOs have stronger cultures of volunteerism, and where the sector is far more outward-looking and collaborative in its service delivery than it is today. While past research on the sustainability of emergency volunteering has mostly focused on activity at the level of specific management practices, volunteerism managers earmark changes needed at organisational and sector levels. These changes even extend into potential redesign of the ways in which emergency management services are provided to communities in different settings, as well as who is involved in providing them.

}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5195, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: views from local government managers}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents views on the future of emergency volunteering from\ local government and local government association managers across\ Australia that have recent experience with this volunteering.

In this report, emergency volunteering means all types of volunteering that\ supports communities before, during and after a disaster or emergency,\ regardless of its particular organisational affiliation, or lack thereof. It\ includes formal volunteers affiliated with volunteer-based emergency\ management organisations (EMOs) as well as the diverse and growing\ types of formal and informal volunteering that supports communities\ before, during and after a disaster but is not affiliated with an EMO.

The landscape of emergency volunteering is characterised by far-reaching\ change, converging challenges and emerging new opportunities. A key\ concern today is how the changing landscape is putting pressure on the\ long-term sustainability of Australia{\textquoteright}s formal emergency management\ volunteer capacity. However, the changing landscape also opens doors\ onto new and innovative ways for organisations to enable and enhance\ the value of volunteering for communities.

Local government managers clearly see a need for change in the\ emergency management (EM) sector with respect to volunteering and\ volunteer management, and the councils represented in these interviews\ are trialling and developing new management approaches in response.\ 

These interviews flag a looming need to examine how resourcing and\ funding options and restrictions may impact on the ability of the EM sector\ to adapt to the changing landscape of volunteering.

Many of the things that local government managers see as necessary to\ move the sector towards a preferred future for emergency volunteering are\ beyond the control of a single organisation to deliver. Certainly, many are\ beyond the reach of an individual council. They will require collaborative,\ and boundary-spanning approaches involving organisations within and\ beyond the EM sector.\ 

Future strategic planning for volunteering in the EM sector will benefit from strong representation from local government stakeholders in order to build an effective, enabling environment for local level volunteering and volunteer coordination into the future.

This report is one of a series of Environmental Scan reports being prepared through the Emergency volunteering 2030: Adapting the sector project to capture diverse views of the current and emerging landscape of emergency volunteering. The reports will be used to develop alternative future scenarios for emergency volunteering to inform today{\textquoteright}s decision-making

}, issn = {430}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @conference {bnh-4797, title = {The emerging imperative of disaster justice}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Disaster justice, a term coined by Verchick (2012), is an emerging field of study focusing on the role of societies, specifically their governing structures, in creating and perpetuating vulnerabilities, inequalities and injustices that are magnified by natural hazards. Disaster justice is a problem of governance, rather than nature or luck, that elicits moral claims for effective and fair disaster management (Douglass \& Miller, 2016). Verchick makes this point succinctly: {\textquotedblleft}In the Anthropocene, there is no such thing as a natural disaster. Anthropogenic carbon emissions amplify the force and frequency of many environmentally triggered events. Land-use planning decisions squeeze some populous communities into the unsafe places where those escalated forces are more likely to land{\textquotedblright} (Verchick, 2016, p. 6). This emerging field thus draws heavily on the related concepts of environmental justice and climate justice.
In this review paper, we first outline how disaster management constitutes a justice issue. We then briefly introduce the different justice concepts applicable to disaster management and finally propose what the concept of disaster justice can do for disaster management.

}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-5143, title = {Emerging opportunities for developing a diversified land sector economy in Australia{\textquoteright}s northern savannas}, journal = {The Rangeland Journal}, volume = {40}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {315-330}, chapter = {315}, abstract = {

We explore sustainable land sector opportunities for Australia{\textquoteright}s 1.2 million km2\ northern savanna rangelands where extensive beef cattle pastoralism is the predominant contemporary land use. Our focal region is characterised by mean annual rainfall exceeding 600 mm, ecologically bountiful wet season water availability followed by 6{\textendash}8 months of surface water deficit, mostly nutrient-poor soils, internationally significant biodiversity and carbon stock values, very extensive dry season fires in pastorally unproductive settings, a sparse rural population (0.14 persons km{\textendash}2) comprising a high proportion of Indigenous people, and associated limited infrastructure. Despite relatively high beef cattle prices in recent seasons and property values escalating at a spectacular ~6\% p.a. over the past two decades, long-term economics data show that, for most northern regions, typical pastoral enterprises are unprofitable and carry significant debt. Pastoral activities can also incur very significant environmental impacts on soil and scarce dry season water resources, and greenhouse gas emissions, which currently are not accounted for in economic sustainability assessments. Over the same period, the conservation sector (including National Parks, Indigenous Protected Areas) has been expanding rapidly and now occupies 25\% of the region. Since 2012, market-based savanna burning projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions occur over a further 25\%. Returns from nature-based tourism focussed particularly on maintaining intact freshwater systems and associated recreational fishing opportunities dwarf returns from pastoralism. The growth of these latter industries illustrates the potential for further development of profitable {\textquoteleft}ecosystem services{\textquoteright} markets as part of a more environmentally and socially sustainable diversified regional land sector economy. We outline some of the imminent challenges involved with, and opportunities for developing, this new industry sector.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ18005}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/rj/RJ18005}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha} } @article {bnh-5133, title = {Empirically derived method and software for semi-automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models}, journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, volume = {108}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {208-239}, chapter = {208}, abstract = {

Land-use change\ models generally include neighbourhood rules to capture the spatial dynamics between different land-uses that drive land-use changes, introducing many parameters that require calibration. We present a process-specific semi-automatic method for calibrating neighbourhood rules that utilises discursive knowledge and\ empirical analysis\ to reduce the complexity of the calibration problem, and efficiently calibrates the remaining interactions with consideration of locational agreement and landscape pattern structure objectives. The approach and software for implementing it are tested on four case studies of major European cities with different physical characteristics and rates of\ urban growth, exploring preferences for different objectives. The approach outperformed benchmark models for both calibration and validation when a balanced objective preference was used. This research demonstrates the utility of process-specific calibration methods, and highlights how process knowledge can be integrated with automatic calibration to make it more efficient.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217313105}, author = {Charles Newland and Aaron Zecchin and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Hedwig van Delden} } @article {bnh-5038, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

An inexorable link exists between volunteerism and community capability and resilience with respect to disaster risk. Communities and governments increasingly expect emergency management organisations (EMOs) to actively enable and enhance the value of volunteering for communities with respect to building community capability and resilience. This is strongly reflected in disaster management policy in Australia, embodied in the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (COAG, 2011). It is also evident in the United Nation{\textquoteright}s Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction that calls on Nations to encourage {\textquotedblleft}Civil society, volunteers, organized voluntary work organizations and community based organizations to{\textquotedblright}, amongst other things, {\textquotedblleft}advocate for resilient communities and an inclusive and all-of-society disaster risk management that strengthen synergies across groups.{\textquotedblright} (UNISDR, 2015, p.23)\ 

}, issn = {423}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Tarn Kruger and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and John Handmer} } @conference {bnh-4800, title = {Enhancing community resilience through the early childhood education and care workforce}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

In 2011 the clinicians at the Zero-to-Four Child and Youth Mental Health Service identified an increasing number of children entering the service after experiencing severe weather events. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction declared children to be the group most affected by disasters (B. Pfefferbaum, Pfefferbaum, \& Van Horn, 2018). During that same year, there were 332 major weather events around the world. In this period alone, 244.7 million people were impacted by a natural disaster at a cost of USD$366.1 billion (Guha-Sapir, Vos, Below, \& Ponserre, 2012). For five nations, this was their most expensive year for natural disaster. Australia experienced significant flooding and a cyclone, Brazil had a flash flood followed by a mudslide, New Zealand had two significant earthquakes within 6 months, Japan had a major earthquake and tsunami, the US experienced at least 17 separate weather events, South Africa had significant flooding, severe hailstorms were recorded in China, while Philippines experienced 33 separate weather events, and Europe experienced 18 separate events (Guha-Sapir et al., 2012).\ 

}, author = {Sharleen Keleher} } @article {bnh-5135, title = {Enhancing learning in emergency services organisational work}, journal = {Australian Journal of Public Administration}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

The paper aims to assist emergency services organisations to learn how to learn so that managers better understand how to embed effective learning practices and systems into their organisation{\textquoteright}s culture. Learning in emergency services organisations occurs in a range of contexts. These include after-action reviews, externally led inquiries, and practice-led research projects. The paper outlines key themes from the work-related learning literature and introduces a modified experiential learning framework to ground real-world experiences. Interviews were conducted with 18 emergency services practitioners. The findings provide examples of the broad challenges that agencies need to manage to enhance and sustain learning. These include shifting value from action post an event, to reflection, focusing on the bigger picture and allowing enough time to effectively embed new practices after an emergency. No organisation can forgo learning. All experiences provide opportunities for learning to occur. A key insight for agencies interested in facilitating improvements in learning is to locate potential weak links in the learning cycle and to develop a better understanding of how to learn.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12309}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8500.12309}, author = {Owen, Christine and Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-5132, title = {Enhancing the policy relevance of exploratory scenarios: generic approach and application to disaster risk reduction}, journal = {Futures}, volume = {99}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {1-15}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Exploratory scenarios (i.e. scenarios that question what could happen) have been widely applied to a vast array of complex and uncertain socio-environmental system problems. Despite this fact, they have also been criticised by policy makers for not being relevant to policy processes and assessment. This paper proposes a generic approach to enhance policy relevance in the development of exploratory scenarios. This is carried out by participatory exploration and categorisation of available policy responses and framing of scenarios in terms of challenges to these. An exploration of the factors that make these policies more or less effective is used to develop a narrative for temporal developments in scenario instantiation, in comparison to more generic drivers for change. Within this paper, this process is applied to a case-study exploring the future of natural disaster risk; improving understanding of future uncertainties and subsequently the effectiveness of long-term disaster risk reduction. The case-study application consider bushfire, earthquake, flooding and heatwaves and resulted in five scenarios framed on challenges to resilience and challenges to mitigation for policy makers in Adelaide, Australia.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.03.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632871730410X}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Dandy and Aaron Zecchin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-6331, title = {Establishing Design Principles for Wildfire Resilient Urban Planning}, journal = {Planning Practice and Research}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {97-119}, abstract = {

This study elaborates on the built and natural environment disciplines{\textquoteright} potential to develop applied understandings of resilience, using the example of land-use planning design guides in wildfire-prone areas. It argues that land-use planning can develop and apply spatial and physical resilience principles to disasters, contributing to developing meaningful ways of achieving resilience by bridging the space between overarching goals and the specificity of individual contexts, focusing on physical resistance. It concludes that there are nine design principles that can improve settlements resilience in wildfire-prone areas to reduce risks, organized under two major categories: acting on resistance and facilitating response.

}, keywords = {disaster, land-use planning, resilience, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2018.1429787}, url = {https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02697459.2018.1429787$\#$.XfrID49xXb0}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March} } @article {bnh-5137, title = {Estimating fire background temperature at a geostationary scale - an evaluation of contextual methods for AHI-8}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, chapter = {1368}, abstract = {

An integral part of any remotely sensed fire detection and attribution method is an estimation of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s background temperature. This temperature cannot be measured directly independent of fire radiation, so indirect methods must be used to create an estimate of this background value. The most commonly used method of background temperature estimation is through derivation from the surrounding obscuration-free pixels available in the same image, in a contextual estimation process. This method of contextual estimation performs well in cloud-free conditions and in areas with homogeneous landscape characteristics, but increasingly complex sets of rules are required when contextual coverage is not optimal. The effects of alterations to the search radius and sample size on the accuracy of contextually derived brightness temperature are heretofore unexplored. This study makes use of imagery from the AHI-8 geostationary satellite to examine contextual estimators for deriving background temperature, at a range of contextual window sizes and percentages of valid contextual information. Results show that while contextual estimation provides accurate temperatures for pixels with no contextual obscuration, significant deterioration of results occurs when even a small portion of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s surroundings are obscured. To maintain the temperature estimation accuracy, the use of no less than 65\% of a target pixel{\textquoteright}s total contextual coverage is recommended. The study also examines the use of expanding window sizes and their effect on temperature estimation. Results show that the accuracy of temperature estimation decreases significantly when expanding the examined window, with a 50\% increase in temperature variability when using a larger window size than\ 5{\texttimes}5pixels, whilst generally providing limited gains in the total number of temperature estimates (between 0.4\%{\textendash}4.4\% of all pixels examined). The work also presents a number of case study regions taken from the AHI-8 disk in more depth, and examines the causes of excess temperature variation over a range of topographic and land cover conditions.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091368}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/9/1368}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel and Andrew Skidmore} } @article {bnh-5338, title = {Estimating Fire Background Temperature at a Geostationary Scale{\textemdash}An Evaluation of Contextual Methods for AHI-8}, journal = {Remote Sensing }, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, chapter = {1368}, abstract = {

An integral part of any remotely sensed fire detection and attribution method is an estimation of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s background temperature. This temperature cannot be measured directly independent of fire radiation, so indirect methods must be used to create an estimate of this background value. The most commonly used method of background temperature estimation is through derivation from the surrounding obscuration-free pixels available in the same image, in a contextual estimation process. This method of contextual estimation performs well in cloud-free conditions and in areas with homogeneous landscape characteristics, but increasingly complex sets of rules are required when contextual coverage is not optimal. The effects of alterations to the search radius and sample size on the accuracy of contextually derived brightness temperature are heretofore unexplored. This study makes use of imagery from the AHI-8 geostationary satellite to examine contextual estimators for deriving background temperature, at a range of contextual window sizes and percentages of valid contextual information. Results show that while contextual estimation provides accurate temperatures for pixels with no contextual obscuration, significant deterioration of results occurs when even a small portion of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s surroundings are obscured. To maintain the temperature estimation accuracy, the use of no less than 65\% of a target pixel{\textquoteright}s total contextual coverage is recommended. The study also examines the use of expanding window sizes and their effect on temperature estimation. Results show that the accuracy of temperature estimation decreases significantly when expanding the examined window, with a 50\% increase in temperature variability when using a larger window size than\ 5{\texttimes}5pixels, whilst generally providing limited gains in the total number of temperature estimates (between 0.4\%{\textendash}4.4\% of all pixels examined). The work also presents a number of case study regions taken from the AHI-8 disk in more depth, and examines the causes of excess temperature variation over a range of topographic and land cover conditions.

}, keywords = {contextual methods, fire attribution, fire background temperature, geostationary sensors}, doi = {10.3390/rs10091368}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/9/1368}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel and Andrew Skidmore} } @article {bnh-5102, title = {Estimating fire severity and carbon emissions over Australian tropical savannahs based on passive microwave satellite observations}, journal = {International Journal of Remote Sensing}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, abstract = {

We investigated the use of a recently developed satellite-based vegetation optical depth (VOD) data set to estimate fire severity and carbon emission over Australian tropical savannahs. VOD is sensitive to the dynamics of all aboveground vegetation and available nearly every two days. For areas burned during 2003{\textendash}2010, we calculated the VOD change (ΔVOD) pre- and post-fire and the associated loss in the above ground biomass carbon. ΔVOD agreed well with the Normalized Burn Ratio change (ΔNBR) which is the metric used to estimate fire severity and carbon loss compared well with modelled emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We found that the ΔVOD and ΔNBR are generally linearly related. The Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between VOD- and GFED-based fire carbon emissions for monthly and annual total estimates are very high, 0.92 and 0.96, respectively. A key feature of fire carbon emissions is the strong inter-annual variation, ranging from 21.1 Mt in 2010 to 84.3 Mt in 2004. This study demonstrates that a reasonable estimate of fire severity and carbon emissions can be achieved in a timely manner based on multiple satellite observations over Australian tropical savannahs, which can be complementary to the currently used approaches.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1460507}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01431161.2018.1460507}, author = {Xi Chen and Y.Y Liu and Jason P. Evans and R.M. Parinussa and Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra} } @article {bnh-5262, title = {Estimating grassland curing with remotely sensed data}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences }, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, chapter = {1535}, abstract = {

Wildfire can become a catastrophic natural hazard, especially during dry summer seasons in Australia. Severity is influenced by various meteorological, geographical, and fuel characteristics. Modified Mark 4 McArthur{\textquoteright}s Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is a commonly used approach to determine the fire danger level in grassland ecosystems. The degree of curing (DOC, i.e. proportion of dead material) of the grass is one key ingredient in determining the fire danger. It is difficult to collect accurate DOC information in the field, and therefore ground-observed measurements are rather limited. In this study, we explore the possibility of whether adding satellite-observed data responding to vegetation water content (vegetation optical depth, VOD) will improve DOC prediction when compared with the existing satellite-observed data responding to DOC prediction models based on vegetation greenness (normalised difference vegetation index, NDVI). First, statistically significant relationships are established between selected ground-observed DOC and satellite-observed vegetation datasets (NDVI and VOD) with an r2 up to 0.67. DOC levels estimated using satellite observations were then evaluated using field measurements with an r2 of 0.44 to 0.55. Results suggest that VOD-based DOC estimation can reasonably reproduce ground-based observations in space and time and is comparable to the existing NDVI-based DOC estimation models.

}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-1535-2018}, url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1535/2018/nhess-18-1535-2018.pdf}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Wasin Chaivaranont and Jason P. Evans and Yi Y.Liu} } @conference {bnh-4794, title = {Evaluation and calibration of a land surface based soil moisture for fire danger ratings}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

We present the evaluation of high-resolution, JASMIN soil moisture analysis developed for Australia. The prototype JASMIN system has been developed primarily for use in fire and land management. JASMIN produce hourly soil moisture estimates over four soil layers at 5 km horizontal resolution. We evaluate JASMIN against three ground-based networks in Australia. Among the results, the median Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation obtained for surface soil moisture across the observation networks for JASMIN is between 0.78 and 0.85. JASMIN generally has a better skill than the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and Soil Dryness Index models used operationally in Australia. We also apply and evaluate a few rescaling approaches to the JASMIN soil moisture to facilitate its use in the current operational fire danger rating system. Minimummaximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching are the rescaling approaches applied. Validation of the rescaled products is performed using ground-based observations and MODIS fire radiative power data. The rescaling readily enables fire agencies to utilize the JASMIN product in their existing fire prediction models. However, the potential of JASMIN is greatest in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), currently being prototyped across Australia. Particularly, the ability of JASMIN to estimate soil moisture at several levels is expected to be advantageous in the NFDRS. For example, the Spinifex fuel model implemented in the current NFDRS prototype uses 0-10cm soil moisture as an input.\  This soil moisture information is available natively in JASMIN.

}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-4547, title = {Evaluation of Survive and Thrive}, number = {359}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {94}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Survive and Thrive pilot program is an intensive two year bushfire education program for primary school students in Grade 5/6. It is delivered through a community-based partnership between local CFA brigades and local primary schools. To date, the program has been delivered in the localities of Anglesea and Strathewen. In Anglesea, the partnership between Anglesea CFA and Anglesea Primary School was established in 2013 and the program has been running for four years. In Strathewen, the partnership between Strathewen Primary School and Arthurs Creek Fire Brigade was established in 2016 and the program has been running for 18 months.

The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the program in both Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify the key mechanisms and processes that contributed to those outcomes. By identifying the mechanisms and processes that contributed to program outcomes, the evaluation also seeks to identify what aspects of the program generated the most valuable outcomes for the resources invested. An additional aim of the evaluation was to examine key factors influencing the ongoing sustainability of the program in Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify a possible pathway toward scaled implementation.

The evaluation employed a mixed-methods design involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative measures, which included semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews were the main focus; however, these were supplemented by a quantitative survey that was administered to both children and parents.\ \ 

}, keywords = {Bushfire, child, communities., Emergency management, Natural disasters, recovery, reduction, risk}, issn = {359}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan} } @conference {bnh-5396, title = {Evaluation of TanDEM-X and DEM-H digital elevation models over the Condamine-Balonne catchment}, booktitle = {Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (HWRS 2018): Water and Communities }, year = {2018}, month = {2018}, publisher = {Monash University }, organization = {Monash University }, abstract = {

A digital elevation model (DEM) is a three-dimensional representation of the Earth surface showing mountain peaks, valley floors, rivers and lakes. DEMs are an essential input for the application of environmental and flood models and, for large catchments,these datasets are produced using data collected by instruments on-board satellite missions. However, data collected from such techniques are inevitably affected by inaccuracies which have to be accurately understood and evaluated in order to allow the implementation of any numerical model. This study evaluated the accuracy of the recently released 12 m resolution TanDEM-X (German Aerospace Center) and the widely used 30 m resolution DEM-H (Geoscience Australia). One of the most important sources of inaccuracy in satellite-derived DEMs is a dense vegetation canopy. This problem is particularly important in dryland catchments, where vegetation is not uniformly distributed across the landscape but often concentrates along the river corridors. The Condamine-Balonne catchment, a low-gradient dryland area in Queensland, offers a representative case study. Satellite-derived DEMs were compared with more than 600 ground control points, three LiDAR datasets, and over 60 ground measured river cross sections. This analysis allowed the evaluation of the capability of the satellite-derived DEMs to reproduce (i) surface elevation at the point scale, (ii) river channels and floodplain morphology, and (iii) catchment slope along the river network. TanDEM-X performed better at the point scale and in transects with sparse vegetation resulting in Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) values respectively 0.30 m and 0.12 m lower than the DEM-H. However, TanDEM-X was affected by large errors in densely vegetated areas. Moreover, the enforcement of hydrological connectivity is required. This analysis offers useful insight for the application of TanDEM-X and DEM-H data for environmental and flood modelling in the Condamine-Balonne catchment and in similar dryland areas.

}, keywords = {condamine-balonne, hydrology, resource, water}, isbn = {9781925627183}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=134740719984631;res=IELENG}, author = {Ankun Wang and Stefania Grimaldi and Saif Shaadman and Yuan Li and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-5217, title = {Evaluation of the feasibility and benefits of operational use of alternative satellite data in the Australian Flammability Monitoring System to ensure long-term data continuity}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS) is the first, continental-scale prototype web service providing spatial information on Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and landscape flammability conditions derived from satellite observations. The system uses data from the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, providing estimates of FMC and flammability over a fortnight leading up to the day of interest and at 500 m spatial resolution. The Terra and Aqua satellites have already exceeded the expected lifetime and, at some point in the not-too-distant future, will become inoperative.

To support the AFMS continuity and redundancy strategy, we evaluate the feasibility and relative benefits of using alternative remote sensing imagery in the AFMS to provide finer spatial and temporal resolutions. The evaluated data sources include the geostationary Japanese Himawari-8 satellite (10min, 2km), the European Sentinel-2 (5 days, 20 m), the Landsat (16 days, 30m) and VIIRS (daily, 750 m) satellites.

We use Radiative Transfer Models to build a database of simulated spectra for the different studied sensors and corresponding to different FMC conditions. The database is then used to test the suitability of the different sensor to retrieve FMC based on their different spectral characteristics and goodness of retrieval (e.g. r2 and RMSE between retrieved and modelled).

VIIRS obtained the highest accuracy retrieval (r2=0.8, RMSE=19\%, n=6178) followed by Sentinel-2 (r2=0.8, RMSE=23, n=6178), Landsat-8 (r2=0.8, RMSE=24, n=6178) and Himawari-8 (r2=0.7, RMSE=24, n=6178). These results were expected as VIIRS has a larger number of sensor bands (5 bands) in the Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) followed by Sentinel-2 (3 bands), Landsat and Himawari-8 (two bands each).

VIIRS, therefore, is likely the best candidate to ensure the AFMS website data provision continuity. Sentinel-2 (3 bands) and Himawari-8 are the best second and third candidates that obtain similar accuracies while increasing the spatial (Sentinel-2, 20m) and temporal (Himawari-8, 10 minutes) resolutions of the products displayed in the AFMS.

Future work will focus on integrating estimates from these different data sources to better support a range of fire management activities such as prescribed burning and pre-positioning of firefighting resources and inform the future National Fire Danger Rating System.

}, issn = {448}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5105, title = {An evaluation of youth justice conferencing for youth misuse of fire}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {Queensland University of Technology}, abstract = {

This project involved an evaluation of firefighter involvement in Youth Justice Conferencing to determine whether, and if so how, this program facilitates the prevention of youth misuse of fire. Evaluation comprised quantitative analyses of a decade of Youth Justice Conferencing records and recidivism data, alongside qualitative analysis of program practitioner interviews. Findings revealed that, although there are some areas in need of improvement, Youth Justice Conferencing with firefighter involvement contributes to a reduction in the risk of general recidivism, whilst providing an avenue through which to deliver fire safety education to at-risk groups within the community.

}, keywords = {Arson, child-centred disaster risk reduction, conferencing, Fire, firefighter, juvenile, prevention, restorative, youth justice, youth misuse of fire}, doi = {10.5204/thesis.eprints.116520}, url = {https://eprints.qut.edu.au/116520/}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-4677, title = {Evidence to support incident management team capability}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {44}, abstract = {

In 2015, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) commissioned a review of the evidence base to establish the rationale for capabilities central to effective incident management. The review focused on the capabilities required for senior AIIMS Level 3\ Incident Management Team roles. Results were used to inform standards for the AFAC Emergency Management Professionalisation Scheme. The review considered the human factors and emergency management literature as well as research conducted through the Bushfire CRC. Analysis and synthesis of the evidence identified three broad capabilities, each with three sub-capabilities important in incident management. The three categories were to model leadership and teamwork, to think and plan strategically and demonstrate self-awareness. This article outlines the evidence base and the capabilities developed through this review and contributes to the evidence base for incident management capability. Guidance on what will be needed in continuing professional development program is provided.

}, keywords = {communication, decision-making, Emergency management, EMPS, incident management, multi-hazard.}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-evidence-to-support-incident-management-team-capability/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter Hayes and Brooks, B and Cameron Scott and Geoff Conway} } @conference {bnh-4778, title = {Experiences in the in-field utilisation of fuels3D}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Fuels3D provides a rapid method to collect quantified information describing fuel hazard using a smartphone. The method requires users to collect a number of photos along a transect within a fuel hazard environment. The photos are processed using photogrammetric algorithms to provide a three-dimensional representation of the fuel, and subsequently estimates of fuel hazard metrics including fuel height, cover and fate (dead/alive). This paper reports on the initial large scale utilisation trial of the Fuels3D fuel hazard workflow. Project end-users from Victoria, South Australia and ACT were provided with a smartphone app (iOS or Android) that allowed photos to be easily collected following the Fuels3D method. End-users were instructed to collect samples within a variety of fuel types and hazards in order to test the potential and limitations of the app.\  These photos were transferred utilising the cloudstor research infrastructure to a processing PC, where estimates of fuel hazard metrics were derived and reported back to end-users.\  Initial results of this trial indicate that Fuels3D is capable of quanitifed estimates of fuel hazard metrics that are more precise than those achieved with visual fuel hazard assessments.

}, author = {Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Samuel Hillman and Adam J. Leavesley and Simeon Telfer and Ian Thomas} } @article {bnh-5200, title = {Exploring the experiences of those who shelter in place during severe flooding}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report examines the experiences of residents and business owners in the Northern Rivers region of NSW during flooding on March 30 and 31, 2017. It draws on a survey of residents and business owners conducted in July 2017, and a series of semi-structured interviews conducted with residents and business owners between April and July 2017. Using these methods, perspectives on awareness, information and warnings, and preparedness are explored, alongside people{\textquoteright}s experiences of staying with their home or business during this flood. The findings suggest that an approach that is more responsive to local cultures and contexts is needed for managing the residual flood risk in already existing towns and developments in floodplains, particularly where there is an established culture of sheltering during floods.\ Information that enables residents and businesses to effectively plan and prepare for the realities
of sheltering, or to recognise that early evacuation is a better strategy and to take steps to ensure that evacuation is possible, is needed.

}, issn = {436}, author = {Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Ashley Avci and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Roche, Kevin and Coates, Lucinda and Andrew Gissing} } @conference {bnh-4743, title = {Extreme fire behaviours: Surveying fire management staff to determine behaviour frequencies and importance}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

An understanding how bushfires cause damage is important if they are to be effectively managed. Extreme fire behaviours (EFBs) are phenomena that occur within intense fires that have been shown to contribute greatly to their to impacts. However, there exists little understanding regarding how often particular EFBs occur, how these contribute to fire behaviour and what importance should be allocated to each in the development of models for decision support. To address this problem, we surveyed fire fighters from fire and land management agencies in Australia regarding their experiences with EFBs. All fires greater than 1000 ha in the period 2006-2016 were considered in the survey. Representatives were asked which, if any, EFBs they had observed and whether there was any documentation to support these observations. We found that EFBs are common in large fires. In more than 60 \% of case studies, each bushfire had two and more EFBs simultaneously (or one after another). Our survey indicated that Spotting, Crown fires, Pyro-convective events, Eruptive fires and Conflagrations are the most commonly observed EFBs, and so should be a priority for research. The relative commonness of direct evidence available for EFBs is indicative that there should be the potential for further study of these phenomena.\ 

}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6308, title = {Extreme floods and river values: A social{\textendash}ecological perspective}, journal = {River Research and Applications}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {1-11}, abstract = {

The social{\textendash}ecological status of rivers is particularly pronounced during extreme flood events. Extreme floods are a substantial threat to people, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Efforts to address the threats of extreme floods are aligned largely with social values of flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and avoidance of loss. However, extreme floods are also a fundamental driver of river ecosystems, aligned with ecological (biophysical) values of event effectiveness, river change, disturbance, biotic response, and heterogeneity. A survey of the public perceptions of extreme floods revealed that participants generally understood the ecological values of extreme floods through concepts of naturalness, climate change, and knowledge production. However, participants had less understanding of how river integrity might influence the response of rivers to extreme floods. Resilience can be used as a framework for uniting the social and ecological values of extreme floods because it embodies a common language of change, disturbance, and adaptation and complements the socially dominated discourse of risk and emergency management. Three strategies are given for river scientists to frame ecological values in parallel with the paradigms of the socially dominated discourse of extreme floods: be prepared to act following an extreme flood disaster, learn and use the language of the flood risk and emergency management sector, and undertake assessments of the ecological values of extreme floods to highlight the threats to those values that may occur with climate change and river modification.

}, keywords = {disasters, disturbance ecology, flood management, resilience, risk}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3355}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.3355}, author = {Melissa Parsons} } @article {bnh-5216, title = {Failure mechanisms of bridge structures under natural hazards}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The report captures the major failure modes of bridges under exposure to potential natural hazards in Australia: flood, bushfire and earthquake. Attributes of bridge structures which influence failure and the typical levels of natural hazards experienced in Australia are explored. Case studies on analysis of failure of bridges have been presented which can provide input to vulnerability modelling of the bridge structures.

Analysis of case studies and literature indicated that the most common failure mechanisms of bridge structures under flood is scour, debris loading and damage to approach roads. Failure mechanisms of bridges due to bushfire are significantly affected by the construction material of bridge components. Major mechanisms of failure in reinforced concrete structures is observed to be the spalling of concrete, failure due to reduction in strength and elastic modulus of concrete and yielding of reinforcing steel. In steel bridges, when temperatures rise above 400 degrees Celsius, a rapid reduction in strength of members could lead to failure. Failure mechanisms of the bridges due to earthquake are explored using analytical methods and fragility curves have been developed using finite element modeling of a bridge structure. Deck joints have been observed to be the most vulnerable elements of girder bridges in Australia under earthquake loading. The generic methodology developed will be applied to other structural forms in future.

}, issn = {446}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @conference {bnh-4773, title = {Filling the gaps: how economics can help make important decisions when information is missing}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

When natural hazard managers need to make decisions about the allocation of resources, there is often information missing that cannot be rapidly obtained. In many cases, these decisions have to be made without waiting for the information to become available. But how can natural hazard managers know that their chosen allocation of resources generates good value for money when there is data missing? There are economic tools available that can support decision making in such cases. We explain how economic analyses cope with missing data and uncertainty. Through case studies, we illustrate how economic tools are used to rank the importance of different pieces of information and to find thresholds where the optimal decision changes. We also demonstrate how these tools can fill-in the gaps when there is little knowledge about a topic, for example, how to explicitly represent intangible values in decision making. The ability of economic tools to manage missing data and uncertainty can provide a wealth of information to natural hazard managers that can help them make better decisions.\ 

}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5207, title = {Final report on fragility curves for retrofitted URM buildings in Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

As reported in the previous project report {\textquotedblleft}Fragility Curves for URM Buildings{\textquotedblright}\ (Derakhshan and Griffith, 2018), fragility curves are an important tool for estimating the economic loss due to earthquakes. As a follow-up to that work,\ this report presents fragility curves for URM buildings that have been seismically\ strengthened. With this additional information, it will be possible to estimate the\ reduced damage due to seismic retrofit for cost-benefit analyses for a range of\ earthquake scenarios in order to ensure cost-effective seismic strengthening\ policy.

With this in mind, the remainder of this report should be treated as an addendum\ to the previous project report (Derakhshan and Griffith, 2018), hereafter referred\ to as the August 2018 report.

In the present report, we describe the methodology used to produce empirically-based\ fragility\ curves\ for\ seismically\ strengthened\ URM\ buildings\ on\ the\ basis\ of\ performance\ reported\ for\ 78\ heritage-listed\ buildings\ in\ Christchurch\ during\ the\ 2010\ and\ 2011\ earthquake\ sequence.\ 

Empirical fragility curves for the global damage of strengthened buildings have\ been derived using the simplifying assumption that the PGA to cause a\  particular\ probability of a given damage state in a strengthened building can be obtained\ as a scalar multiple of the probability to cause the same damage state in the\ unstrengthened building. On the basis of this assumption, PGA scaling multipliers\ are calibrated which can be used to apply a rightward shift to the\ unstrengthened building curves (from the August 2018 report) to produce the\ corresponding curves for strengthened buildings. These multipliers were\ calibrated using the Christchurch earthquake damage data for two levels of\ retrofit. It was found that a multiplier of 1.4 produces good agreement for\ buildings with full retrofit, and a multiplier of 1.1 for buildings with partial or\ incomplete retrofit. It is recommended that for buildings strengthened only for\ improved out-of-plane wall resistance by means of bracing/ties only, a multiplier\ of 1.0 should be used.\ 

}, issn = {441}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5196, title = {Final report on pushover analysis of classes of URM buildings to characterise drift ratios for different damage levels}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

It is widely considered that building structural damages during earthquakes can be calibrated against building{\textquoteright}s lateral drift. A study of this relationship assists in the development of fragility curves, which can be used as part of large-scale seismic risk evaluation. In the current study, pushover analyses were conducted on four prevalent Australia/New Zealand unreinforced masonry (URM) building typologies to study this relationship. The buildings were modelled as equivalent frames using a commercial software, and the damage progress within the building under increasing lateral drifts were recorded. Limits of displacements corresponding to different damage states were established and compared to the values found in other studies and/or recommended by ASCE guidelines. The earlier studies that were used in the comparison included two NZ-based numerical research that were aimed at reproducing damages that were occurred to 3 buildings during the recent New Zealand (Gisborne 2007 and Christchurch 2011) earthquakes. The comparisons suggest that storey drift limits recommended in ASCE guidelines can be used to conservatively estimate building damage state.

}, issn = {431}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Michael Griffith} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6620, title = {Fire and heavy metals: when wild and controlled fires transform un-rehabilitated mining waste}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {Federation University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Controlled fires conducted in fire prone areas are an efficient and economic option to reduce the frequency and intensity of wild fires that result in damage to human property, infrastructure and ecosystems. However, in a similar way to wild fires, controlled fires affect many of the physical and bio-geochemical properties of the forest soil, and may remobilize Potentially Toxic Elements (PTE) from vegetation and soil organic matter. The objective of this study is to investigate the mobilization of PTEs in a mined landscape after a controlled fire and to describe their temporal variations in concentrations. Soil samples were collected two days before and two days after the controlled fire, at the end of each season, and after a major rainfall in September 2016, from a legacy mine site in Maldon, Central Victoria, Australia, and analysed for PTE concentrations. The results revealed PTE mobility after the controlled fire, and most of the PTEs (As, Cd, Cu, Mn, and Zn) evidenced an increase in concentration (1.2, 1.5, 1.1, 2.9, and 1.7 times respectively) and other PTEs (Hg, Cr and Pb) shown a decrease (1.4, 1.1 and 1.1 times respectively) immediately after the fire. The increase in PTE concentration immediately after the fire is postulated to be associated with the addition of PTE enriched ash to the soil and the reduction is due to the volatilization of elements during fire. The PTEs, which increased their concentrations immediately after the fire show a temporal decrease in concentration in the post-fire soil environment due to the removal of ash and surface soil by rainfall runoff, leaching and wind activity. However, Hg shows an increase in concentration after the major rainfall event. Although, median concentrations of As, Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn exceeded the Australian and Victorian top soil averages, only As and Hg are considered to be a risk to human and aquatic ecosystems health due to their elevated concentration and toxicity. Climate change and the resulting projection for increased forest fire frequency illustrates a growing concern given the expected concomitant increase in PTE mobilization. Preparing appropriate land and water management strategies, and addressing environmental health practice and policy, specifically at the legacy mining areas require a review. This study highlights the significant risk these sites pose.

}, keywords = {controlled fires, Fire, heavy metals, mining, waste, wild fires}, url = {https://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:13081}, author = {Joji Abraham} } @article {bnh-6998, title = {Firefighter involvement in Youth Justice Conferencing: Implications for fire prevention}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {102}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, pages = {59-65}, abstract = {

In response to the {\textquoteleft}Black Christmas{\textquoteright} bushfire crisis in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, the Premier of NSW called for the utilisation of Youth Justice Conferencing to {\textquoteleft}confront young people with the harm they had caused{\textquoteright} by their misuse of fire. Legislative amendments were subsequently enacted to particularise Youth Justice Conferencing outcome plans to fire-related offences. To facilitate the inclusion of fire-specific outcome plan tasks, Juvenile Justice NSW and Fire and Rescue NSW engaged in a\ Memorandum of Understanding\ to administer\ firefighter\ involvement in Youth Justice Conferencing. Despite operating for over a decade, this approach has only recently attracted empirical inquiry. As part of a broader study, interviews with program developers, conference convenors, program coordinators, and local firefighters were conducted. Content analysis revealed five major concepts that suggest firefighter involvement in Youth Justice Conferencing has implications for fire prevention.

}, keywords = {Fire, firefighter, Juvenile arson, prevention, Youth justice conferencing, youth misuse of fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2018.11.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0379711218300171?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5019, title = {Flood damage assessment in urban areas}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {247}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disaster prevention activities are attracting greater priority since prevention is more cost-effective and less uncertain than response, and aligned with the vision and mission of sustainable development. Increasing the resilience of communities and businesses is dependent on the extension of structural and non-structural risk mitigation activities. Hence, the nation-wide frameworks of natural disaster risk management are promoting a global movement from reactive activities (response and recovery) to proactive actions (prevention and mitigation). In Australia, flood risk management is of high priority since flood is a frequent natural hazard with significant financial consequences. Flood risk assessment and flood damage estimation are the primary steps in the flood risk management process because they are essential for the identification and prioritisation of top priority areas, cost-benefit analysis, checking the feasibility of risk mitigation options, selecting best practices in risk reduction and land use planning. This research aims to develop a validated flood damage assessment framework for the geographical area of Australia using historical data collected in several disaster events to inform disaster management policy in support of the development of risk reduction measures. In Australia, due to a lack of empirical data, most damage models are not calibrated with real damage data, and few studies have been conducted on the validation of results. In addition, most approaches are absolute, which is quite rigid and does not easily transfer across time and space. All approaches are of the traditional type, which relies on a deterministic relationship between type or use of the properties at risk and the depth of water. Thus, the interaction of most damage-influencing parameters and the uncertainty of data are neglected. This study has attempted to address these issues and the knowledge gaps.

Firstly, a comprehensive empirical data set including information on damage extent, flood impact variables and resistance factors was collected, and data mining, data preparation and data transformation were conducted. Since the function approach is a common and internationally accepted methodology for estimating the value of flood losses, some new relative multi-parameter flood damage assessment functions were derived, calibrated and validated for the most common residential and commercial building types in Australia. The functions were developed using the bootstrapping approach and considered the inherent uncertainty in the data sample. The performance of the new flood loss functions, in comparison to the empirical data, was contrasted with that of well-known flood damage assessment models from overseas and Australia. The new model was then transferred to a study area in Italy to check the ease of using local empirical data, evaluating the accuracy of the outcome, and assessing the ability to change parameters based on building practices across the world. Flood damage assessment is a complicated process and can be dependent on a variety of parameters which are not considered in stage-damage functions. Accordingly, a treebased model was developed for exploring the interaction, importance and influence of other damage-influencing parameters on the extent of losses. Finally, the candidate has explored the predictive performance of the new approaches (i.e. flood loss functions and tree-based flood loss models) in assessing the extent of physical damages after temporal and spatial transfer. The predictive power of these models was tested for precision, variation and reliability, and was also checked for some sub-classes of water depth and some groups of building type. The advantages of the newly derived stage-damage functions compared to the existing Australian models include: calibration with empirical data, greater accuracy in results, a better level of transferability in time and space, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, transparency of the logic behind the model and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across the world. Furthermore, results of the tree-based analysis showed that while water depth is the most significant damage predictor in the area of study, floor space, private precautionary measures, building value and building quality also correlate with the extent of flood losses.

Also, the tree based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Thus, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models are recommended. Finally, it has been shown that considering more details of the damaging process can be useful for enhancing the level of transferability of damage models in time and/or space. Overall, this thesis presents a significant contribution to the flood damage assessment process by offering a calibrated and validated flood loss estimation framework. The results provide the input data for subsequent damage reduction, vulnerability mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari} } @article {bnh-4676, title = {Flood levee influences on community preparedness: a paradox?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {39}, abstract = {

Flood levees are a commonly used method of flood protection. Previous research has proposed the concept of the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} to describe the situation whereby the construction of levees leads to a lowered community awareness of the risks of flooding and increased development in the {\textquoteleft}protected{\textquoteright} area. The consequences of this are the risks of larger losses in less frequent but deeper floods\ when levees overtop or fail. This paper uses the recent history of flooding and levee construction to investigate the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} through a study of flood preparedness and floodplain development in Lismore, NSW.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, levee, Preparedness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-flood-levee-influences-on-community-preparedness-a-paradox/}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-6056, title = {Floods, bushfires and sectoral economic output in Australia, 1978-2014}, journal = {Economic Record}, volume = {95}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = {58-80}, abstract = {

Using state-level annual variation in natural disasters and economic output in Australia, we estimate the direct effects of floods and bushfires on sectoral gross value added during the period 1978{\textendash}2014. We find that floods exert an adverse and persistent effect on the outputs of agriculture, mining, construction and financial services sectors. For example, our estimates indicate that a state that experienced a flood in a given year encountered, on average, 5{\textendash}6 per cent lower agricultural output in both that year and the following year, compared to another state with no such flood experience. Sectoral responses to bushfires are more nuanced.

}, keywords = {economic, Floods, Natural hazards}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Muhamman Rahman and Yasin Onder and Chen, Yang and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-6643, title = {Floodway inspection and maintenance framework}, number = {540}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts, and floodways are vital road infrastructures for the operation of a road network. Their application may vary based on geographic and demographic features of the territory. Floodways are common in rural road networks as they provide economic and environmental friendly solutions over bridges and culverts. Floodways play a significant role in the economy of a country by connecting regional communities, farmlands and agricultural areas to city centers. For example, 48\% of total agricultural production in Australia in 2006 had been produced from regional council areas, those covering only about 6.9\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population, 11\% of total Australian land mass and 24\% of roads in length [1]. Floodways are common in most of these rural road networks and, hence, play a vital role to distribute agricultural and farming products to highly populated city centers. Therefore, healthy operational levels of floodways are of paramount importance to maintain the continuous supply of essential commodities and the economic balance of Australia.

Floodways are different from bridges and culverts in the design and operational aspects. By definition, floodways are sections of roads which have been designed to be overtopped by floodwater during relatively low average recurrence interval (ARI) floods and are expected to return to fully serviceable level after the flood water recedes [2]. Although, floodways are designed to withstand at low flood levels, extreme natural disasters can damage these vital road infrastructures as evident from the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events. 58\% of floodway structures in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) area in Queensland, Australia, were damaged during the 2013 Queensland flood event leading to operational failures in rural road networks. Floodway damage leads to isolating regional communities and hindering the supply of agricultural products to other regions. In a post-disaster period, the long-term impacts on the community and the economy of the country depend on the speed of reestablishing the fully operational level of those floodways.

}, keywords = {Flood, Floodway, framework, maintenance}, issn = {540}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-4678, title = {A formative evaluation of the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {6}, chapter = {64}, abstract = {

The\ Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge\ is an online, interactive safety game and a mobile application. It provides young children in Australia with essential information on how to identify and report legitimate emergencies by calling Triple Zero (000). As a companion resource, the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide provides educators of lower-primary school students with a series of structured learning activities to consolidate and extend the key messages of the online game. To ensure that the learning activities in the guide are both feasible and appropriate for the target age group, a formative evaluation was conducted with lower-primary students and their teachers. This paper reports on the results of the evaluation and highlights the importance of formative evaluation to the development of safety education programs for children. While the evaluation indicated that the learning activities were feasible and appropriate for lower-primary school students, it also identified the need for numerous modifications and improvements that have been incorporated into a revised 2017 version of the guide.

}, keywords = {children, communication, Emergency management, information., Kids}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-a-formative-evaluation-of-the-triple-zero-kids-challenge-teacher-s-guide/}, author = {Briony Towers and Mark Whyrbo} } @article {bnh-6054, title = {Fragility and climate impact assessment of contemporary housing roof sheeting failure due to extreme wind}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {117}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, pages = {464-475}, abstract = {

The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3\% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10\% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6{\textendash}18\% over the next 50 years.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Damage, Fragility, Housing, Reliability, Wind load}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.05.125}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029618302499}, author = {Mark Stewart and John Ginger and David Henderson and Paraic Ryan} } @article {bnh-5096, title = {From academic to applied: operationalising resilience in river systems}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {305}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {242-251}, chapter = {242}, abstract = {

The concept of resilience acknowledges the ability of societies to live and develop with dynamic environments. Given the recognition of the need to prepare for anticipated and unanticipated shocks, applications of resilience are increasing as the guiding principle of public policy and programs in areas such as\ disaster management,\ urban planning,\ natural resource management, and\ climate change adaptation. River science is an area in which the adoption of resilience is increasing, leading to the proposition that resilience may become a guiding principle of river policy and programs. Debate about the role of resilience in rivers is part of the scientific method, but disciplinary disunity about the ways to approach resilience application in policy and programs may leave river science out of the policy process. We propose six elements that need to be considered in the design and implementation of resilience-based river policy and programs: rivers as social-ecological systems; the science-policy interface; principles, capacities, and characteristics of resilience; cogeneration of knowledge;\ adaptive management; and the state of the science of resilience.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.08.040}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X17302118}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Martin Thoms} } @article {bnh-5035, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the 2016-2017 Annual Report. The report focuses on the analysis of fire spread simulations for two case study landscapes: the ACT and Tasmania. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible to investigate prescribed burning effectiveness at risk mitigation across a range of treatment levels, management values and landscapes, by placing them on a common baseline of risk.

}, issn = {421}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-4586, title = {A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {12}, chapter = {260}, abstract = {

Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) is one of the primary drivers affecting fuel flammability that lead to fires. Satellite observations well-grounded with field data over the highly climatologically and ecologically diverse Australian region served to estimate FMC and flammability for the first time at a continental-scale. The methodology includes a physically-based retrieval model to estimate FMC from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) reflectance data using radiative transfer model inversion. The algorithm was evaluated using 360 observations at 32 locations around Australia with mean accuracy for the studied land cover classes (grassland, shrubland, and forest) close to those obtained elsewhere (r2 = 0.58, RMSE = 40\%) but without site-specific calibration. Logistic regression models were developed to generate a flammability index, trained on fire events mapped in the MODIS burned area product and four predictor variables calculated from the FMC estimates. The selected predictor variables were actual FMC corresponding to the 8-day and 16-day period before burning; the same but expressed as an anomaly from the long-term mean for that date; and the FMC change between the two successive 8-day periods before burning. Separate logistic regression models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest. The models obtained an {\textquotedblleft}Area Under the Curve{\textquotedblright} calculated from the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot method of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, indicating reasonable skill in fire risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Fire occurrence, Fire risk, Forests., GEOPROSAIL inversion, Grasslands, MODIS, PROSAIL inversion, Shrubs}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425718302116$\#$.WvZrg57h8og.twitter}, author = {Marta Yebra and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Pablo Rozas Larraondo and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5091, title = {Fuels3D: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Smartphone technology with high quality sensors are becoming increasing ubiquitous. This technology, when combined with computer visions methods allows for the 3D description of the surrounding environment. This project exploits this technology to provide robust measurement of vegetation structural metrics that can be built into existing fuel hazard assessment frameworks.\ \ Providing key metrics as data products rather than a single end product enables flexibility across jurisdictions and ecosystem types, and capacity to adapt as end-user requirements change.

}, issn = {428}, author = {Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Luke Wallace} } @article {bnh-6321, title = {Geographic Patterns of Fire Severity Following an Extreme Eucalyptus Forest Fire in Southern Australia: 2013 Forcett-Dunalley Fire }, journal = {Fire}, volume = {1}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

Fire severity is an important characteristic of fire regimes; however, global assessments of fire regimes typically focus more on fire frequency and burnt area. Our objective in this case study is to use multiple lines of evidence to understand fire severity and intensity patterns and their environmental correlates in the extreme 2013 Forcett-Dunalley fire in southeast Tasmania, Australia. We use maximum likelihood classification of aerial photography, and fire behavior equations, to report on fire severity and intensity patterns, and compare the performance of multiple thresholds of the normalised burn ratio (dNBR) and normalized difference vegetation index (dNDVI) (from pre- and post-fire Landsat 7 images) against classified aerial photography. We investigate how vegetation, topography, and fire weather, and therefore intensity, influenced fire severity patterns. According to the aerial photographic classification, the fire burnt 25,950 ha of which 5\% burnt at low severities, 17\% at medium severity, 32\% at high severity, 23\% at very high severities, while 22\% contained unburnt patches. Generalized linear modelling revealed that fire severity was strongly influenced by slope angle, aspect, and interactions between vegetation type and fire weather (FFDI) ranging from moderate (12) to catastrophic (\>100). Extreme fire weather, which occurred in 2\% of the total fire duration of the fire (16 days), caused the fire to burn nearly half (46\%) of the total area of the fireground and resulted in modelled extreme fireline intensities among all vegetation types, including an inferred peak of 68,000 kW{\textperiodcentered}m-1 in dry forest. The best satellite-based severity map was the site-specific dNBR (45\% congruence with aerial photography) showing dNBR potential in Eucalyptus forests, but the reliability of this approach must be assessed using aerial photography, and/or ground assessment.

}, keywords = {aerial photography, Eucalyptus forest, fire intensity, fire severity mapping, generalized linear modelling, geospatial validation, normalized burn ratio, Tasmania}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1030040}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/3/40}, author = {Mercy Ndalila and Grant Williamson and David Bowman} } @conference {bnh-4779, title = {Get ready NSW- fostering all hazards resilience in local communities}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The NSW Government{\textquoteright}s Get Ready NSW program is designed to promote allhazards preparedness and build capabilities for disaster resilience in local communities. The program delivers a suite of tools and resources and fosters community-led preparedness. The involvement of a broader range of organisations across multiple sectors is a key mechanism for building community-wide resilience (Council of Australian Governmnents [COAG] 2011). All communities face multiple hazards; and the 2017 NSW State Level Emergency Risk Assessment (SLERA) (NSW Government 2017) identified a need to develop consistency in all-hazards community preparedness activities at the local level.

}, author = {Sarah Anderson} } @article {bnh-5245, title = {The Good, the bad, and the uncertain: contributions of volunteered geographic information to community disaster resilience}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, abstract = {

The adoption of location-based information sharing technologies, and the emergence of volunteered geographic information (VGI), has seen changes to community involvement in disaster management. The concept of resilience, and recognition of the capacity for renewal, re-organization, and societal development, has gained currency in disaster management. However, the opportunities presented by spatially referenced data for sourcing contextual information for understanding processes of social{\textendash}ecological resilience and fostering local inclusion has not been examined. We examine how web 2.0 platforms, including VGI and social media, can support resilience building, and critically evaluate how these technologies potentially undermine resilience. We concentrate our analysis on factors deemed important for community disaster resilience through review of recent literature, policy documents, and author experience. Establishing which elements of VGI in disaster management should be emphasized, such as increased flexibility or individual empowerment, and which require careful management, such as compromised privacy or data quality, will enable VGI to become less opportunistic, data-centric, disruptive, and exclusionary, and allow for more reliable, community-centric, complementary, and socially inclusive practices. Incorporating awareness and training on collaborative geoweb technologies into disaster preparedness programs will equip individuals to make informed judgments on VGI content and reduce unintended consequences of social media initiatives.

}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2018.00183 }, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2018.00183/full$\#$h1}, author = {Haworth, B and J Whittaker and R{\'o}is{\'\i}n Read and Eleanor Bruce} } @conference {bnh-4804, title = {The Hawaii nuclear alert: how did people respond?}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Nuclear tensions between the United States and North Korea have been extensively reported as both sides postured via threats and propaganda and North Korea conducted missile tests. North Korea{\textquoteright}s leader Kim Jong-Un had promised to decimate the US and was referred to by President Trump as mentally {\textquoteleft}deranged{\textquoteright}. A story in the New York Times in late 2017 based upon consultations with leading security experts suggested that the chance of war breaking out was between 15 and 50 percent (Kristof, 29/11/2017). Given the threat of an attack, U.S. government officials encouraged residents to be prepared and commenced monthly drills to test warning systems.
Within this environment of heightened geopolitical tensions, a single text message was sent in error to people in Hawaii on the 13th of January at 8.07am, warning of an imminent ballistic missile strike.
The alert presents an opportunity to improve the understanding of how people react to warnings of extreme events. Risk Frontiers researchers conducted an analysis of media interviews with 207 individuals (respondents) who received the warnings to identify people{\textquoteright}s attitudes and responses after the alert was received. Interview responses were coded, analysed and are reported in this paper.

}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Ashley Avci} } @article {bnh-6044, title = {Health Assessment of a Pedestrian Bridge Deck using Ground Penetrating Radar}, journal = {Electronic Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {18}, year = {2018}, month = {2018}, pages = {30-37}, abstract = {

Scanning concrete structures using ground penetrating radars (GPR) continues to be one of the most efficient methods for defect (i.e. crack, void and delamination) detection within concrete structures as well as detection of reinforcing bars damage due to corrosion. The aim of this study was to assess the structural health of a 45-year old pedestrian bridge deck. To achieve this, a number of experiments using a GPR system were conducted on a strong concrete floor with known construction drawings to detect cover depth and rebar orientations. After validating the GPR results through the experiments, the GPR system was used for nondestructive assessment of the pedestrian bridge deck. From the scanned results, the location and orientation of the reinforcing bar were established. In addition, the diameters of the bars was estimated by measuring the thickness of the hyperbola curves in the B-scans. The scanned output shows no signs of corrosion of reinforcement or damage of concrete in the form of delamination or cracking.

}, keywords = {Bridge, Ground Penetrating Radars, Non-Destructive Techniques, Structural Heath Assessment}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Colin_Duffield/publication/326734315_Health_Assessment_of_a_Pedestrian_Bridge_Deck_using_Ground_Penetrating_Radar/links/5b61464baca272a2d678d7d9/Health-Assessment-of-a-Pedestrian-Bridge-Deck-using-Ground-Penetrating-Ra}, author = {Saeed Miramini and Massoud Sofi and Ahmed Aseem and Ali Baluwala and Lihai Zhang and Priyan Mendis and Colin Duffield} } @article {bnh-4335, title = {Hierarchical integration of individual tree and area-based approaches for savanna biomass uncertainty estimation from airborne LiDAR}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {205}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {141-150}, chapter = {141}, abstract = {

Understanding the role that the vast north Australian savannas play in the continental carbon cycle requires reliable quantification of their carbon stock at landscape and regional scales. LiDAR remote sensing has proven efficient and accurate for the fine-scale estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB) and carbon stocks in many ecosystems, but tropical savanna remain under studied. We utilized a two-phase LiDAR analysis procedure which integrates both individual tree detection (ITC) and area-based approaches (ABA) to better understand how the uncertainty of biomass estimation varies with scale. We used estimations from individual tree LiDAR measurements as training/reference data, and then applied these data to develop allometric equations related to LIDAR metrics. We found that LiDAR individual tree heights were strongly correlated with field-estimated AGB (R2\ =\ 0.754, RMSE\ =\ 90\ kg), and that 63\% of individual trees crowns (ITC) could be accurately delineated with a\ canopy maximaapproach. Area-based biomass estimation (ABA), which incorporated errors from the ITC steps, identified the quadratic mean of canopy height (QMCH) as the best single independent variable for different plot sample sizes (e.g. for 4\ ha plots: R2\ =\ 0.86, RMSE\ =\ 3.4\ Mg\ ha-\ 1; and 1\ ha plots: R2\ =\ 0.83, RMSE\ =\ 4.0\ Mg\ ha-\ 1). Our results show how ITC and ABA approached can be integrated to understand how biomass uncertainty varies with scale across broad landscapes. Understanding these scaling relationships is critical for operationalizing regional savanna inventories, monitoring and mapping.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.11.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717305357}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs and Shaun R Levick and Michael Lawes and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-4798, title = {How can business share responsibility for disaster resilience?}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

In Australia, business makes a significant contribution to disaster relief and recovery. Even so, there are unexplored opportunities to enhance the role of business in disaster resilience, particularly through partnerships with government. This paper proposes measures to strengthen partnerships between government and the business sector to enhance national disaster resilience. The extent that state, regional and local level disaster plans engage business in disaster relief and recovery is described and ways to formalise these relationships to enhance the role of business are suggested. Business has a relatively less prominent involvement in disaster resilience. The capacity to strengthen disaster resilience by influencing business practices in disaster prevention, preparedness and risk mitigation is outlined and discussed.

}, author = {Susan Hunt and Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-5194, title = {How do weather and terrain contribute to firefighter entrapments in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {85-98}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

Adverse weather conditions and topographic influences are suspected to be responsible for most entrapments of firefighters in Australia. A lack of temporally and spatially coherent set of data however, hinders a clear understanding of the contribution of each weather type or terrain driver on these events. We investigate coronial inquiries and internal fire agencies reports across several Australian states from 1980 to 2017 and retrieve 45 entrapments. A first analysis reveals that most entrapments happen during large fires and that the number of deaths has decreased over the last few decades. Comparing the meteorological and topographical conditions of the entrapments with the conditions of a reference set of fires without entrapment, we build a linear regression model that identifies the main contributors to firefighter entrapment. A change in wind direction, which was associated with 42\% of the incidents examined, is the main factor contributing to entrapments. Interaction between strong winds and steep slopes also influences the likelihood of entrapment and suggests that dynamic fire behaviours may also play important roles. As further details of this relationship between dynamic fire propagation and firefighter entrapment is now required, the understanding of weather and terrain contribution is a first step to produce comprehensive safety guidance.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17114}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17114}, author = {Lahaye, S and Jason J. Sharples and Stuart Matthews and Heemstra, S and Owen Price and Badlan, R} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5108, title = {How does remotely sensed degree of curing and fuel load vary in grasslands and effect modelled fire spread?}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, school = {UNSW}, abstract = {

Wildfire can become a catastrophic natural hazard. Grasslands are the most common fuel type in Australia with nearly 75\% coverage. There are multiple factors, particularly weather and fuel conditions, which dictate the severity of grassland fire. While grassland fires are very responsive to weather conditions, availability and variability in fuels are also important drivers. Here, grassland fuel availability and variability are studied by examining the degree of curing (DOC) and fuel load. DOC is the percentage proportion of dead material in the fuel bed (100\% DOC indicates a fully cured grassland). Satellite data, including recently developed microwave based vegetation optical depth (VOD) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with field observed data, are used to calibrate and evaluate satellite estimated DOC and fuel load models over Australia. Gridded, 8 day estimated DOC is derived via a regression analysis of VOD and NDVI, while gridded, annual estimated fuel load is constructed from aboveground biomass carbon derived from VOD. Both DOC and fuel load have persistent spatial variability across Australia. DOC has a continental mean of 85.7\% and spatial standard deviation of 20.4\%, while grassland fuel load has a mean of 5.9 t ha-1 and standard deviation of 2.5 t ha-1 across all years. DOC shows strong temporal variation in southeast and southwest Australia, while fuel load shows strong temporal variation towards the east coast. Their continental mean temporal standard variations are 11.9\% and 0.5 t ha-1, respectively. Both satellite based DOC and fuel load data are then used in fire spread models (Phoenix RapidFire and Spark) to assess the changes in modelled grassland rate of spread due to spatial variability of DOC and fuel load. Rate of spread experiments are conducted using: 1) idealised experiments with artificial DOC, fuel load, and weather; and 2) realistic experiments using satellite based DOC and fuel load along with weather station data based on past fire events. Results suggest that predicted rates of spread are more sensitive to changes in DOC than fuel load. Observed spatial variations in fuel characteristics can significantly alter the modelled rate of fire spread across a landscape. Phoenix and Spark models predict divergent rates of spread in high fuel load environments (over 15 t ha-1). With an estimated DOC as an appealing alternative to the currently available DOC product, a newly developed annual estimated fuel load over a continental scale, and direct comparison of fire spread simulation between a popular, classic and a recently developed, high potential fire spread models, this thesis pushes the boundary of grasslands fire fuel monitoring and sheds some light on the prediction results of current fire spread models. Grassland fire spread prediction is challenging and requires careful consideration of fuel related parameters and variabilities across space and time, such as DOC and fuel load, as well as selection of fire spread models.

}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?vid=UNSWORKS\&docid=unsworks_52395\&context=L}, author = {Wasin Chaivaranont} } @article {bnh-4571, title = {How emergency services organisations can {\textendash} and do {\textendash} utilise research}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

In emergency management organisations, the drive to use research to inform practice has been growing for some time. This paper discusses findings from a survey used to investigate perceived effectiveness of a number of important processes in research utilisation. In 2016, a survey was completed\  by 266 respondents in 29 fire and emergency services agencies. Questions sought answers on perceived effectiveness in disseminating research within agencies, assessing and evaluating the impacts on agency practice of the research, implementing agency changes that may be needed, monitoring processes to track changes and communicate outcomes of changes made as a result of research. The study found that there were differences in levels of perceived effectiveness between those in senior management and front-line service positions. The differences suggest that front-line services personnel have lower levels of perceived effectiveness in how research is disseminated. The study also found agencies had different approaches to keep up-to-date with research advances. An examination of the activities identified four developmental levels of research utilisation maturity. The findings suggest more work is needed to better understand the enablers and constraints to utilising research to support development of evidence-informed practice.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, lessons management, Research utilisation, research., teamwork}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2018-how-emergency-services-organisations-can-and-do-utilise-research/}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-5134, title = {Human error during the multilevel responses to three Australian bushfire disasters}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, volume = {26}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, abstract = {

The scale and complexity associated with the coordinated response to natural disasters inevitably produce human errors. However, little is known about the frequency and distribution of human error at different levels of coordination during disasters. The purpose of this research was to explore this phenomenon for selected catastrophic bushfires in Australia. To accomplish this, we used the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System that has been widely applied to accidents but is untested with respect to the complexity and temporality of disasters. The results identified that decision errors made during these disasters differed depending upon the level of coordination but were associated with information uncertainty, fatigue, coordination complexities, procedural violations, and degraded personal interactions.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12221}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-5973.12221}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Christopher Bearman and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-4462, title = {Hydrologic model calibration using remotely sensed soil moisture and discharge measurements: The impact on predictions at gauged and ungauged locations}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {557}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, chapter = {897}, abstract = {

The skill of hydrologic models, such as those used in operational flood prediction, is currently restricted by the availability of flow gauges and by the quality of the streamflow data used for calibration. The increased availability of remote sensing products provides the opportunity to further improve the model forecasting skill. A joint calibration scheme using streamflow measurements and remote sensing derived soil moisture values was examined and compared with a streamflow only calibration scheme. The efficacy of the two calibration schemes was tested in three modelling setups: 1) a lumped model; 2) a semi-distributed model with only the outlet gauge available for calibration; and 3) a semi-distributed model with multiple gauges available for calibration. The joint calibration scheme was found to slightly degrade the streamflow prediction at gauged sites during the calibration period compared with streamflow only calibration, but improvement was found at the same gauged sites during the independent validation period. A more consistent and statistically significant improvement was achieved at gauged sites not used in the calibration, due to the spatial information introduced by the remotely sensed soil moisture data. It was also found that the impact of using soil moisture for calibration tended to be stronger at the upstream and tributary sub-catchments than at the downstream sub-catchments.

}, keywords = {Calibration, Remote sensing., Soil moisture, Streamflow forecasting}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418300131}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and R N Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-5146, title = {Identification of hydrologic models, optimized parameteres, and rainfall inputs consistent with in situ streamflow and rainfall and remotely sensed soil moisture}, journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology}, volume = {19}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

An increased understanding of the uncertainties present in rainfall time series can lead to improved confidence in both short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. This study presents an analysis that considers errors arising from model input data, model structure, model parameters, and model states with the objective of finding a self-consistent set that includes hydrological models, model parameters, streamflow, remotely sensed (RS) soil moisture (SM), and rainfall. This methodology can be used by hydrologists to aid model and satellite selection. Taking advantage of model input data reduction and model inversion techniques, this study uses a previously developed methodology to estimate areal rainfall time series for the study catchment of Warwick, Australia, for multiple rainfall{\textendash}runoff models. RS SM observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into three different rainfall{\textendash}runoff models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Innovations resulting from the observed and predicted SM were analyzed for Gaussianity. The findings demonstrate that consistency between hydrological models, model parameters, streamflow, RS SM, and rainfall can be found. Joint estimation of rainfall time series and model parameters consistently improved streamflow simulations. For all models rainfall estimates are less than the observed rainfall, and rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model are the most consistent with gauge-based observations. The SAC-SMA model simulates streamflow that is most consistent with observations. EnKF innovations obtained when SMOS RS SM observations were assimilated into the SAC-SMA model demonstrate consistency between SM products.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0240.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0240.1}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-6049, title = {Identifying the evidence to support incident management team capability}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {44-49}, abstract = {

In 2015, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) commissioned a review of the evidence base to establish the rationale for capabilities central to effective incident management. The review focused on the capabilities required for senior AIIMS Level 31 Incident Management Team roles. Results were used to inform standards for the AFAC Emergency Management Professionalisation Scheme. The review considered the human factors and emergency management literature as well as research conducted through the Bushfire CRC. Analysis and synthesis of the evidence identified three broad capabilities, each with three sub-capabilities important in incident management. The three categories were to model leadership and teamwork, to think and plan strategically and demonstrate self-awareness. This article outlines the evidence base and the capabilities developed through this review and contributes to the evidence base for incident management capability. Guidance on what will be needed in continuing professional development program is provided.

}, keywords = {Capability, incident management, standards}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=792881583519986;res=IELAPA}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter Hayes and Brooks, B and Cameron Scott and Geoff Conway} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6159, title = {The impact of bushfires on water quality}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Population growth in urban areas leads to a higher demand in water use. Quality of water is an important factor not only from an aesthetic view, but also for ecological health purposes.

This paper presented research that is designed to develop a spatial approach to support the planning of the water quality in the areas subjected to bushfires, using a case study from state of Victoria. In particular, this research involved the implementation of a hydrological model in order to predict the river water quality, to assist in the decision-making process. The impact of bushfires on water quality can be highly variable for the most of the individual water quality parametres. This variability is caused by a number of landscape influences and climatic factors, most notably rainfall. High magnitude and intense rainfall events soon after fire generate the largest impacts on water quality and sometimes trigger extreme erosion events.

There are many important water quality parameters that must be taken into account when the water is delivered to the population. For some of the water quality parameters there is very little information available, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions about bushfire impacts. The monitoring campaigns are very expensive, and better options are the modeling tools.
The model used in this research is eWater, a conceptual, semi-distributed model, which applies the flow accumulation principles. eWater Source - Australia{\textquoteright}s National Hydrological Modelling Platform (NHMP) {\textendash} is developed by eWater CRC, Australia. It is designed to simulate all aspects of water resource systems to support integrated planning, operations and governance from urban, catchment to river basin scales including human and ecological influences.

The catchment analyzed can be divided into sub-catchments and functional units. The model integrates rainfall runoff, constituent generation and filter models, which are parameterized. The user must find the best set of parameters that is suitable for that catchment. After calibration and validation, the model can be used in the same catchment for any period of time, and it will be able to predict the pollution levels in the catchment, with a good accuracy. Also, a user can follow the same steps, to calibrate the model for any other catchment. This method is time consuming, but it doesn{\textquoteright}t require many input data.The fires and the rain are classified in 3 classes each. Then, the landuse, the burnt areas and the areas with rain are combined and parameterized separately.

The outputs from the developed model are good correlated with the measured data, and show higher concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients after bushfire followed by rain. To improve the model performance, the measured water quality data must be daily data with a better accuracy.

}, keywords = {bushfires, modeling, water pollution, water quality}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162351}, author = {graducan} } @article {bnh-5150, title = {Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick Catchment, Australia}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash{\textendash}Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In terms of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method performed second best according to streamflow predictions at the five gauges in the calibration period (01/01/2008{\textendash}31/12/2011) and four gauges during the validation period (01/01/2012{\textendash}30/06/2014). However, NN produced the worst prediction at the outlet of the catchment in the validation period, indicating a low robustness. While the IDW exhibited the best performance in the study catchment in terms of accuracy, robustness, and efficiency, more general recommendations on the selection of rainfall interpolation methods need to be further explored under different catchment hydrological systems in future studies.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00114}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2017.00114/full}, author = {Shulun Liu and Yuan Li and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @conference {bnh-4792, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Strong surface wind gusts and heavy rain are meteorological hazards that are predominantly produced by storms such as east coast lows, tropical cyclones or thunderstorms. Interest in these hazards from a response agency point of view lies in their impact on the natural and built environment. At present, weather forecast models still predict mostly {\textquoteright}raw{\textquoteright} meteorological output such as surface wind speeds at certain times, or rain accumulations over a specified period. This model output needs to be combined with exposure and vulnerability information to translate the forecast hazard into predicted impact.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows attempts to demonstrate a pilot capability to deliver impact forecasts for residential housing from an ensemble of weather prediction models runs. The project is a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.

The project is initially focusing on the wind and rainfall impact from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in NSW. The wind and rainfall hazard data are provided by a 24-member ensemble of the ACCESS model on a 1.3 km grid, with damage data acquired from NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU) for the 2015 event.

We will show that the multi-hazard nature of an east coast low event makes attributing the observed building damage to a single hazard difficult. Wind damage to residential housing in this case is largely due to tree fall. This {\textquoteright}damage-byintermediary{\textquoteright} mechanism requires not just the knowledge of building properties in an exposed area, but also additional knowledge of the surrounding vegetation and its response to strong winds. We will discuss enhancements to the SES/EICU damage survey templates that would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships.

}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and Serena Schroeter and Martin Wehner and Jane Sexton and Beth Ebert and Mark Dunford and Jeffrey Kepert and Shoni Maguire and Russell Hay and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5138, title = {Implementation of a new algorithm resulting in improvements in accuracy and resolution of SEVIRI hotspot products}, journal = {Remote Sensing Letters}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, abstract = {

Active wildfire detection, surveillance and mapping is an important application of satellite remote sensing. The Active Fire Monitoring (FIR) products, from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, provide rapid-fire detection data every 5 to 15 over the European and African continents. However, the real world application of this high temporal frequency data is hindered due to the product spatial resolution of 3\ \ 3, thus limiting the application in fire surveillance and mapping activities. This letter implements a modified version of the Advanced Himawari-8 Imager {\textendash} Fire Surveillance Algorithm (AHI-FSA) for SEVIRI with the aim of improving the spatial resolution of fire activity mapping. Initial results demonstrate the algorithm was able to improve the resolution of fire detection from 3\ \ 3\ km to 1\ \ 1\ km and simultaneously reduce the commission and omission errors by 25\% and 16\% respectively.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2018.1484955}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2150704X.2018.1484955?journalCode=trsl20}, author = {Chathura Wickramasinghe and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-5053, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia. Analysis shows the average cost of natural hazards in 2015 totalled $9.6 billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33 billion by 2050. These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk is a function of today{\textquoteright}s decisions, and with effective adaptation planning there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow{\textquoteright}s impacts. To support improved understanding of future risks and testing of adaptation solutions this project is working on mechanisms to better inform decision making with quantitative tools by working with multiple government agencies.

}, issn = {427}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Roel Vanhout and Sofanit Araya and Bree Bennett} } @conference {bnh-4788, title = {Improved predictions of extreme sea levels around Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The major hazard in coastal regions is inundation through extreme water levels generated in the ocean through different mechanisms such as storm surges and tsunamis or through a combination of effects such as a relatively small storm surge coinciding with high astronomical tides. With rising in sea level, given water levels will be exceeded more and more frequently as progressively less severe storm conditions are required to achieve that water level. Therefore, it is critical that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and erosion risk-based management and for future planning. To address this concern, this study estimated present day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to storm surges, tides and mean sea level around the whole coastline of Australia through the application of a numerical model. The SCHISM hydrodynamic model, forced by TPXO tides and JRA55 atmospheric reanalysis (wind and air pressure), was successfully applied to produce a 59 year sealevel hindcast (1958-2016) for the entire Australian region. The outputs provide uninterrupted hourly sea level records at \<1 km resolution around the Australian coast. Improvements compared to the previous Haigh et al. [1] dataset included: extending the hindcast by six years including several record storm surge events, higher spatial resolution, improved meteorological forcing, and 3-D hydrodynamic model implementation. Other physical processes, missing from earlier studies, were also examined in detail including: effects of surface gravity waves, continental shelf waves, and meteorological tsunamis. Extreme value analysis was applied to the sea level data to predict Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) at ~2km spacing around the entire Australian coastline including islands. These statistics and relevant plots and time series data have been made available to the public via an interactive web tool, providing a consistent, accessible, up-to-date dataset for use by coastal planners and emergency managers.\ 

}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic} } @article {bnh-4976, title = {Improvements to wind field generation in physics-based models to reduce spin-up time and to account for terrain, heated earth surface}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Wind is one of the most important environmental variables that affects the wildland fire spread and intensity. Previously, fire analysts and managers have relied on local measurements and site-specific forecasts to determine winds influencing a fire. However, advances in computer hardware increased the availability of electronic topographical data, and advances in numerical methods for computing winds have led to the development of new tools capable of simulating wind flow. Several numerical models have been developed for fire prediction. The most widely used physics-based models come with a limitation of computational expenses, because of which these are not suitable for operational use. Our main intention of this study is to reduce this limitation of physics-based models so that fire forecasts can be made faster and easier. Modelling wind in physics-based models such as Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) has been shown to reproduce promising results, but at an inordinate cost. So, we will be using FDS as physics-based model to simulate fire. There are various methods available to generate wind field in FDS. The conventional methods of wind field generation are either an unperturbed inlet profile with a roughness-trip or the by embedding artificial turbulence at the inlet. The wind fields generated by these inlet conditions are compared with each other as well as to the wind field generated using a mean-forcing method for neutral atmospheric conditions. We have then used these inlet conditions to study the effects of fire spread in FDS. Currently, we are working on introducing a method in FDS known as penalization method, so that we can use real time wind data from other wind models, such as Windninja into FDS and perform fire simulations. Our hypothesis is that introduction of this method would reduce the simulation time of fire cases to some extent and moreover can include terrain effect in the wind profiles.

}, issn = {415}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Sesa Singha Roy and Duncan Sutherland and Nazmul Khan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {bnh-4458, title = {Improving Fire Behaviour Data Obtained from Wildfires}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, abstract = {

Organisations that manage wildfires are expected to deliver scientifically defensible decisions. However, the limited availability of high quality data restricts the rate at which research can advance. The nature of wildfires contributes to this: they are infrequent, complex events, occur with limited notice and are of relatively short duration. Some information is typically collected during wildfires, however, it is often of limited quantity and may not be of an appropriate standard for research. Here we argue for a minimum standard of data collection from every wildfire event to enhance the advancement of fire behaviour research and make research findings more internationally relevant. First, we analyse the information routinely collected during fire events across Australia. Secondly, we review research methodologies that may be able to supplement existing data collection. Based on the results of these surveys, we develop a recommended list of variables for routine collection during wildfires. In a research field typified by scarce data, improved data collection standards and methodologies will enhance information quality and allow the advancement in the development of quality science.

}, keywords = {data collection and management, Fire behaviour, research utilization, standard.}, doi = {10.3390/f9020081}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/9/2/81}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6041, title = {Incentivising fire management in Pindan (Acacia shrubland): A proposed fuel type for Australia{\textquoteright}s Savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement methodology}, journal = {Ecological Management \& Restoration}, volume = {19}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = { 230-238}, abstract = {

The Australian Government has sanctioned development of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) abatement methodologies to meet international emissions reduction obligations. Savanna burning emissions abatement methodologies have been available since 2012, and there are currently 72 registered projects covering approximately 32 million ha. Abatement to date has exceeded 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) principally through the application of low intensity early dry season fire management to reduce the amount of biomass combusted in higher intensity late dry season (LDS) fires. Savanna burning projects can only be conducted on areas with eligible fire-prone vegetation fuel types where implementing the improved fire management regime is considered ecologically appropriate. This study assesses the suitability of including tall\ Acacia\ shrublands ({\textquoteleft}Pindan{\textquoteright}) as a new eligible fuel type. These shrublands make up 12\% (~2 million ha) of the Kimberley region, Western Australia, where, on average, 32\% is fire affected annually, mostly in the LDS. A standard assessment protocol was applied to describe vegetation fuel type structural and pyrolysis characteristics. We show that Pindan (i) can be identified and mapped as a unique tall\ Acacia\ shrubland vegetation fuel type, (ii) characterised by a significantly greater shrubby fuel load biomass, and (iii) the conservation status of which would benefit from imposition of strategic prescribed burning programme. Savanna burning projects in the Pindan fuel type could potentially abate up to 24.43\ t.CO2-e/km2\ per year, generating significant income and employment opportunities for predominantly Indigenous land managers in the region.

}, keywords = {Abatement, fire management, Savanna}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12334}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/emr.12334}, author = {Erin Lynch and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Jay Evans and Yates, Cameron P.} } @article {bnh-5192, title = {Incorporating convective feedback in wildfire simulations using pyrogenic potential}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {107}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, pages = {12-24}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Modelling the dynamics of wildfires is very computationally challenging. Although three-dimensional\ computational fluid dynamics\ (CFD) models have been successfully applied to wildfires, the\ computational time\ required makes them currently impractical for operational usage. In this study, we develop a two-dimensional\ propagation model\ coupled to a {\textquoteleft}pyrogenic{\textquoteright}\ potential flowformulation representing the inflow of air generated by the fire. This model can accurately replicate features of fires previously unable to be simulated using current\ two-dimensional models, including development of a fire line into a parabolic shape, attraction between nearby fires and the observed closing behaviour of {\textquoteleft}V{\textquoteright} shaped fires. The model is compared to\ experimental resultswith good agreement. The pyrogenic potential model is orders of magnitude faster than a full\ CFD\ model, and could be used for improved operational wildfire prediction.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217309593}, author = {James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Swedosh, W and Jason J. Sharples and Christopher Thomas} } @article {bnh-6347, title = {Increasing emergency management capacity through business sector involvement }, number = {489}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the capacity and capability of existing emergency management frameworks. To reduce the occurrence of such events it is essential to consider the use of alternate sources of capability and capacity. The business sector has a history of involvement during disasters. This report considers models for the utilisation of the business sector in disaster management and provides suggestions for improvement within the Australian context.\ 

}, keywords = {business, cascading catastrophe, Emergency management, literature review}, issn = {489}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5037, title = {Increasing residents{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards : annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This project addresses the following problem statements: 1) what measures can best be used to capture individuals{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards?, 2) how effective are traditional strategies, such as community engagement groups vs. brochures vs. websites vs. advertising in increasing preparedness and planning by residents of hazard prone areas?, and 3) what are some of the key barriers and motivators for residents{\textquoteright} engagement with disaster resilience building activities, and how can strategies be improved to increase preparedness for natural hazards? All problem statements have been addressed within the context of bushfires and floods.

}, issn = {422}, author = {Ilona M McNeill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6636, title = {Increasing the comprehensiveness of bushfire risk management in Victoria through the planning system}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Settlement patterns and projected climate change impacts for Victoria are increasing the likelihood of bushfire exposure to human settlements. Urban planning is now considered an important component in disaster risk reduction and bushfire risk management; however, it has not always played such a role. Bushfire planning controls in Victoria have adapted to the threat of bushfires over time, but the changes have not been documented in detail. A review of past and present policy and regulations is needed to determine the comprehensiveness of Victoria{\textquoteright}s approach to bushfire risk management and to identify any gaps so that bushfire threats can be better addressed in the future.

This thesis seeks to examine the comprehensiveness of bushfire planning controls in Victoria between 2008 and 2018 and how changes to planning scheme regulations have modified the level of comprehensiveness over time. To determine comprehensiveness, bushfire risk management policy from the Victoria Planning Provisions were analysed at key time periods against a conceptual framework based on five accepted categories of approaches for reducing and adapting to hazards in human settlements. The five categories were hazard avoidance, hazard reduction, vulnerability reduction, preparedness for response and preparedness for recovery. Policy was analysed using a pattern matching technique and a simple time series analysis. The results indicate that Victoria{\textquoteright}s current approach to bushfire risk management is more comprehensiveness than that was in place in 2008 because risk, vulnerability and bushfire behaviour, and four of the five categories for reducing and adapting to hazards are better addressed through policy. Overall, current policy is not as comprehensive as policy that was introduced in 2011. This thesis concludes by highlighting gaps in current policy that should be addressed in the future to improve resilience to bushfire hazards and outlines recommendations for further research.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, planning system, risk management}, author = {Lucy Ockenden} } @article {bnh-5401, title = {Influence of controlled burning on the mobility and temporal variations of potentially toxic metals (PTMs) in the soils of a legacy gold mine site in Central Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Geoderma}, volume = {331}, year = {2018}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Controlled burns also known as managed burns or prescribed fires conducted in fire-prone areas are an efficient and economic option to reduce the frequency and intensity of\ wildfires. The objective of this study is to investigate the\ remobilizationof potentially\ toxic metals\ (PTMs) in the soils of a legacy\ gold mine\ site in Central Victoria, Australia after a controlled burn and to describe their\ temporal variationsin concentrations. Soil samples were collected two days before, two days after and five times later (3, 6, 9, 12 months and after major rainfall) in the post-burn environment after a controlled burn, from the Maldon legacy mine site and analysed for PTM concentrations. The results revealed PTM mobilization after the burn and most of the PTMs (As, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn) evidenced an increase immediately after the burn but a reduction in the subsequent post-burn environment. The increase is postulated to be associated with addition of PTM enriched ash to the soil, while the decrease is due to the removal of ash and surface soil by wind activity as well as rainfall\ runoff\ and\ leaching. The PTM mobility is of specific concern due to the negative impacts on human and\ ecosystems health.\ Climate change\ and the resulting projection of increased\ forest fire\ frequency highlight the environmental significance, given the expected concomitant increase in PTM mobilization through wildfires and controlled burns. Hence, the practice of controlled burning should be carefully considered as a\ forest management\ option in any legacy mining areas and indeed in other areas where PTM\ contamination\ is reported.

}, keywords = {Ash, forest fire, Forest management, Metal mobility, prescribed fire, Soil and water contamination}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.06.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016706117320001}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6701, title = {Initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Wildfires are naturally occurring phenomena that result in significant and catastrophic damage. Due to climate change, there has been a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires. Therefore, there is a growing need to mitigate wildfire risk. In order to help mitigate the risk of wildfires, greater understanding is required. One particular gap in knowledge is the impact of smouldering combustion of potential fuel on wildfires. This thesis focuses on combustion of fuel beds in wildfires. Specifically, the thesis targets smouldering combustion. Smouldering combustion is a common type of combustion regime in wildfires and hazard reduction burning (a wildfire mitigation measure). Smouldering is a slow and low-temperature form of combustion, which shows no flame. Smouldering is a serious hazard because of its low ignition temperature, which makes it particularly relevant to fire initiation and spread. Smouldering plays a vital role in wildfires, as many forest biomass fuels such as grass, leaves and coarse woody debris are prone to smoulder. Most previous studies of smouldering combustion have only been carried out on polyurethane foam, due to its importance for residential fires. However, smouldering has been scarcely investigated from the point of view of wildfires. For example, smouldering combustion of forest fuel is scarcely studied. Hence, the project aims to develop a greater understanding of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass under different conditions with an emphasis on wildfire. Locating smouldering combustion in wildfires and hazard reduction burning is difficult and time-consuming, as there is no effective method to identify the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. It is critical to know when and where smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed starts, as smouldering combustion could transition to flaming combustion under certain conditions. Radiation is one of the important heat transfer mechanisms in wildfires; however, there are few studies on smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds started by external radiant heat flux. Although oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration have significant in influences on the propagation of smouldering front, their effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuels are not well understood. Hence, the effects of oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration on the initiation of smouldering combustion are investigated. Fuels in a forest are diverse, and it is essential to have a better understanding of what effects forest fuels have on smouldering combustion. Thus, the effects of plant species and plant parts on the initiation of smouldering in biomass fuel beds are also investigated. Within this framework, the work presented in this thesis can be split into two main topics: 1. Conditions required to initiate smouldering combustion in bio- mass fuel beds The required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed are investigated in an experimental testing rig. This investigation identifies and quantifies smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion are determined. The effects of heating time and oxygen concentration on the initiation of radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are investigated in the same testing rig. In this experimental study, the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are characterised based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required heating time and oxygen concentration for radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are determined. 2. Factors that influence smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds The results from the first topic reveal that oxygen availability has significant effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed. The air permeability of a biomass fuel bed determines oxygen availability in that fuel bed. Hence, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is investigated in an air permeability testing rig. In this study, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is determined using experimental and theoretical methods. A comparison between the experimental and theoretical methods is made. The effects of Euca- lyptus species and plant parts on smouldering combustion are also investigated. In this study, the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus species are characterised based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. The results of this study show that the differences among the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus can be characterised and quantified based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. It is also found that Eucalyptus species and plant parts have significant effects on smouldering combustion. Although this thesis covers a series of experimental studies of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. There are still many important factors to be considered. For examples, the thesis focuses on small-scale laboratory experiments to better understand the fundamental studies of smouldering combustion of biomass. However, the real-world conditions could be much more complex. For example, forest fuel beds are composed with fuel particles with various sizes and shapes. These factors also have effects on smouldering combustion.

}, keywords = {biomass, Bushfire, smouldering combustion}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/114254}, author = {Wang, Houzhi} } @article {bnh-7973, title = {An integrative review of the 2017 Port Hill fires{\textquoteright} impact on animals, their owners and first responders{\textquoteright} encounters with the human-animal interface}, journal = {Australasian Journal of Disaster and Truma Studies}, volume = {22}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, abstract = {

Animal welfare emergency management is a critical component of modern emergency management, because the powerful bond between people and animals influences decisions and actions taken during emergency events. High risk behaviour and poor decision-making can negatively affect evacuation compliance, observance of cordons, the safety of frontline responders and the psychosocial recovery of responders and animal owners. This paper reviews documents, including official reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and media reports, concerning the impacts of the 2017 Port Hill Fires on animals, with the aim of providing direction for future research and identifying other information needs. Key themes were identified, including evacuation, cordons, animal rescue, communication and co-ordination. The implications of these for emergency management practice are discussed, including recommendations to: consider animals across all phases of wildfire management; enhance emergency responders{\textquoteright} understandings of animal owners{\textquoteright} emotional drivers; develop a national animal loss database; include animal ownership in relevant public education; leverage the human-animal bond as a motivator for mitigation and emergency preparedness; more carefully consider animal evacuation logistics, and; develop relevant wildfire response strategy.

}, keywords = {2017 Port Hills fires, Animal welfare, Emergency management, Wildfire}, url = {https://www.massey.ac.nz/~trauma/issues/2018-2/AJDTS_22_2_Squance.pdf}, author = {Hayley Squance and David Johnston and C Stewart and Chris Riley} } @article {bnh-5139, title = {Intercomparison of Himawari-8 AHI-FSA with MODIS and VIIRS active fire products}, journal = {International Journal of Digital Earth}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, abstract = {

The AHI-FSA (Advanced Himawari Imager - Fire Surveillance Algorithm) is a recently developed algorithm designed to support wildfire surveillance and mapping using the geostationary Himawari-8 satellite. At present, the AHI-FSA algorithm has only been tested on a number of case study fires in Western Australia. Initial results demonstrate potential as a wildfire surveillance algorithm providing high frequency (every 10 minutes), multi-resolution fire-line detections. This paper intercompares AHI-FSA across the Northern Territory of Australia (1.4 million km2) over a ten-day period with the well-established fire products from LEO (Low Earth Orbiting) satellites: MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite). This paper also discusses the difficulties and solutions when comparing high temporal frequency fire products with existing low temporal resolution LEO satellite products. The results indicate that the multi-resolution approach developed for AHI-FSA is successful in mapping fire activity at 500 m. When compared to the MODIS, daily AHI-FSA omission error was only 7\%. High temporal frequency data also results in AHI-FSA observing fires, at times, three hours before the MODIS overpass with much-enhanced detail on fire movement.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2018.1527402}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538947.2018.1527402?journalCode=tjde20}, author = {Chathura Wickramasinghe and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5689, title = {Investigating bird responses to fire in the Heathy Dry Forests of Victoria, Australia}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2019}, school = {Federation University Australia}, address = {Ballarat }, abstract = {


Globally, forest birds are under pressure, from agriculture and urban development fragmenting the landscape. Adding to these pressures, changes in the patterns of global climate drivers give rise to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In Victoria, Australia, changing weather conditions are resulting in increases in the frequency and extent of bushfires. Furthermore, prescribed burning is applied to the landscape in attempts to not only ameliorate the impacts from bushfire, but as part of a {\textquoteleft}pyrodiversity begets biodiversity{\textquoteright} protocol. These pressures all impact birds by reducing resources for: food, nesting and protection from predators. This thesis investigated bird responses to fire in the Heathy Dry Forests of Victoria, against variables of time-since-fire and fire frequency. Bird responses were modelled in terms of: community, foraging guilds and individual species. As a community, birds showed a resilience to both time since fire and fire frequency. Responses by foraging guilds and individual species highlighted some different responses. The common species from each foraging guild showed responses that broadly represent their guild. This thesis highlighted that an effective tool in adaptive management is to predict the trends of our common forest birds, as surrogates for entire bird communities, not just for fire responses, but for a broader reflection on the health of the landscape. The modelling of one species, the Laughing Kookaburra, showed a response to both time since fire and fire frequency, with a reduced abundance in post-fire new-growth vegetation. As this species is noted as being in decline down the east coast of Australia, it is flagged in this thesis as a species of concern. Further, this thesis investigated alpha and beta responses by the forest birds to prescribed burns of different severities. Results suggest that forest birds show little response to small prescribed burns in the landscape, regardless of severity. This may be a result of Heathy Dry Forests{\textquoteright} rapid regeneration post-fire. However, one species that exhibits site fidelity, the White-throated Treecreeper, left areas impacted by high severity prescribed burns. The White-throated Treecreeper{\textquoteright}s response flagged the importance of tree hollows being maintained in the landscape, essential for the species that require hollows for roosting and nesting.

}, keywords = {birds, Fire, forest fires}, url = {http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/167648}, author = {Diana Kuchinke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6619, title = {Investigating the effects of soil moisture, temperature and preciptiation extremes on fire risk and intensity in Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The likelihood of extreme events such as forest fires is expected to increase due to climate change. However, the mechanisms promoting the conditions leading to fires, their risk, and likely intensity are not well studied. This thesis identifies the relationship between soil moisture, fire danger, extreme temperature and fire intensity in Australia.

}, keywords = {fire intensity, Fire risk, precipitation, Soil moisture}, url = {https://monash.figshare.com/articles/Investigating_the_effect_of_Soil_Moisture_Temperature_and_Precipitation_Extremes_on_Fire_Risk_and_Intensity_in_Australia/7133438}, author = {Alexander Holmes} } @article {bnh-6048, title = {An investigation into the water flow pressure distribution on the bridge pier under flood loading}, journal = {Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = { 219-229}, abstract = {

This study simulates the flood effect on piers using a finite volume method in the ANSYS-FLUENT package. The pier is modelled as a non-structural column with a rectangular and a circular cross-section. To simplify the methodology, the pier, as well as the bed and side walls, is assumed to have non-slip boundaries for the fluid domain. A crucial feature of this investigation is the consideration of the effect of water while it is flowing around an object like a bridge pier and the distribution of pressure along the pier height. A numerical model is proposed to explore the influence of variation of velocity on the hydrodynamic force and pressure distribution exerted on piers. A significant finding is that the shape of the pier cross-section has a significant effect on the fluid pressure exerted on bridge piers under flood loading. It is noted that the AS5100 method is appropriate for a conservative estimation of the pressure on rectangular piers, whereas the technique will have a risky safety margin for bridge piers with a circular cross-section and need to be used with caution.

}, keywords = {Flood loading; computational fluid dynamics; finite volume methods; bridge piers; shape effect; hydraulics; hydrodynamics; flood hazard}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2018.1545792}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15732479.2018.1545792}, author = {Maryam Nasim and Sujeeva Setunge and Shiwei Zhou and Hessam Mohseni} } @article {bnh-5152, title = {Laboratory testing of strengthened cavity unreinforced masonry walls}, journal = {Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {144}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, abstract = {

An experimental campaign consisting of nine pressure-controlled quasi-static airbag tests on unreinforced masonry (URM) walls and accompanying material testing was completed to investigate methods for seismic retrofit of out-of-plane loaded cavity walls. Three control walls were tested to serve as a baseline for wall strength comparisons: (1)\ a double-leaf unstrengthened cavity wall; (2)\ a cavity wall with improved cavity connections; and (3)\ a single-leaf wall strengthened using a near-surface-mounted (NSM) fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) strip. The experimental program was concluded by six tests that were conducted on walls strengthened using a NSM FRP strip and having cavity connections in the form of either standard bent metal ties, proprietary helical anchors, or industrial foam. The tests were designed to measure the ability of the different cavity connections to maintain the cavity gap until a ductile wall failure mechanism forms by FRP debonding. Three of the walls were previously damaged by testing in either unstrengthened or FRP-strengthened conditions. These tests were intended to study FRP retrofit effectiveness of precracked walls or the relative ability of different types of cavity connections to resist forces until a global FRP debonding occurs. For each of the six cavity connection configurations, the FRP-strengthening technique was shown to significantly improve the wall strength. The minimum strength increase was 282\% compared with that of the control cavity wall. The compiled data are presented followed by general discussions on the design of seismic retrofit for cavity walls.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001987}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29ST.1943-541X.0001987}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Wade Lucas and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith} } @conference {bnh-4790, title = {Large damage bills to buildings from cyclones can be reduced by small actions}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Recent severe tropical cyclones and storms impacting Australian cities and towns have resulted in large financial losses due to damaged buildings and property. Disruption to livelihoods during the repair/rebuilding prolongs recovery for the community. Damage investigations by the Cyclone Testing Station estimate the wind speeds for the majority of the regions investigated were less than the design wind speeds for contemporary construction (i.e. for buildings less than 35 years old). The damage building assessments show a significant proportion of the losses are due to contemporary buildings. This raises issues as to appropriateness of our building construction, Codes, engineering design practices, and ongoing maintenance.

}, author = {David Henderson and Daniel Smith and John Ginger} } @conference {bnh-4775, title = {A lidar-derived fuel map for the ACT}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Many Australian fire managers rely on fuel maps derived from vegetation classifications and time-since-fire via an accumulation curve (e.g. Phoenix Rapidfire). However fuel maps derived using this method lack potentially critical information about pockets of high and low fuel loads. This is important because a poor understanding of fuels was found to be a critical factor in investigations of both the Margaret River and Lancefield prescribed burn escapes. A potential solution for this problem is the use of LiDAR to create spatially-explicit fuel information.

A LiDAR dataset covering the whole of the ACT was flown over a number of months in 201516 using the LAS 1.4 format. The density of returns was 8ppm over the urban area and 4ppm over the remainder of the territory including a large alpine national park that covers 45 percent of the ACT. Bushfire \& Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) research partners arranged for the dataset to be included in feasibility analyses conducted by the Terrestrial Ecology Research Network (TERN) AusCover Landscape Observatory project. A number of fuel-related layers were created based on the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment (OFHA) and inputs to Project Vesta.

The fuel layers were created at resolutions of 1m, 2m, 5m and 25m in the NetCDF file format. The 25m data were selected for initial assessment because these were the only whole-of-territory datasets easily manipulated in ArcGIS 10. Qualitative assessments indicate: 1) a discernible pattern of fuel variation related to topography; 2) good agreement between LiDAR-derived elevated and near-surface fuel layers and OFHA data collected during the LiDAR acquisition; and 3) good agreement between the LiDAR and fire severity assessments made on burns that were conducted a short time before the acquisition. The next step is to conduct quantitative assessments.

}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra} } @article {bnh-5279, title = {A lightning-caused wildfire ignition forecasting model for operational use}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {253-254}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {16}, chapter = {233}, abstract = {

Lightning-caused wildfires are responsible for substantial losses of lives and property worldwide. Convective storms can create large numbers of ignitions that can overwhelm suppression efforts. Both long- and short-term risk planning could benefit from daily, spatially-explicit forecasts of lightning ignitions. We fitted a logistic regression generalised additive model to lightning-caused ignitions in the state of Victoria, Australia. We proposed a new method for model selection that complemented existing methods and further reduced the number of variables in the model with minimal change to predictive power. We introduced an approach for deconstructing ignition forecasts into contributions from the individual covariates, which could allow model output to be more readily integrated with existing intuitive understandings of ignition likelihood. Our method of model selection reduced the number of variables in the model by 37.5\% with little change to the predictive power. The final model showed good predictive ability (AUC 0.859) and we demonstrated the utility of the model for short term forecasting by comparing model predictions with observed lightning-caused fires over three time periods, two of which had extreme fire conditions, while the third was randomly chosen from our validation dataset. The model presented in this paper shows good predictive power and advancements in model output could allow fire managers to more easily interpret model forecasts.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.037}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192318300376}, author = {Nicholas Read and Thomas Duff and Peter Taylor} } @article {bnh-5197, title = {Literature review: modelling and simulation of flow over tree canopies}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We review recent literature on the topic of atmospheric boundary-layer flow over forest canopies. Included in this review are brief discussions of flow over rough surfaces and flow over urban canopies (collections of buildings). The purpose of this review is to inform fire behaviour analysts of progress in sub-canopy modelling, with an eye to developing simplified models for wind reduction factors. The wind reduction factor is a parameter that quantified the effect of canopy density on fire spread rate. Simulation of canopy flow is also reviewed and discussed. Simulations provide insight into the flow behavior that is otherwise difficult to obtain from field observations and experiments. The basic principles of Large Eddy Simulation and the validity of the simulation results are discussed. Finally some open problems are posed.

}, issn = {432}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-5084, title = {A literature review of methods for providing enhanced operational oversight of teams in emergency management}, journal = {International Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {14}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Teamwork is an important component of effective emergency management. From time to time teamwork will break down in the complex situations involved in managing emergencies. It is important for people who have operational oversight of these teams to be able to detect breakdowns quickly and effectively. However, there is typically little guidance within many agencies about how best to do this. This paper reviews the literature on team monitoring by observers in emergency management and related domains and identifies four key approaches to monitoring teams: 1) coordination, cooperation and task-related communication; 2) information flow; 3) linguistic analysis; 4) team outputs. These methods provide a number of different options that agencies involved in emergency management can use as the basis for developing enhanced operational oversight of teams.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2018.094237}, url = {https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=94237}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Rainbird, Sophia and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-4664, title = {The long road: building effective diversity and inclusion in emergency management}, number = {363}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Although diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is not a new concept or area of practice for the Emergency Management Sector (EMS), there has been little clarity of what effective D\&I practice is, particularly in relation to its management and measurement. EMS organisations are complex, and increasingly, dynamic social, environmental and economic factors are driving the need for transformation in the sector.

This report presents a synthesis of key findings from the organisational assessments and relevant research from the literature review (Young et al., 2018) undertaken for the project Diversity and Inclusion: Building strength and capability. Case study assessments were undertaken with three EMS organisations {\textendash} Queensland Fire and Rescue, Fire and Rescue New South Wales) and South Australian State Emergency Services. These comprised a desktop study of public documents to assess their recent history, current activities and the policy context, website audits to ascertain the visual narrative in relation to D\&I, and a series of interviews to capture the {\textquoteleft}lived experience{\textquoteright} of D\&I from their employees. The aim of the research was to develop an understanding of the key factors influencing effective implementation, and key components needed for a draft D\&I framework, which is presented in this report.

Using a systemic analysis focused on decision making, this research provides insights into how past and present practice and the evolution of these organisations influences their current approaches to D\&I. It also provides an analysis of the barriers, needs, opportunities and benefits collated during the interviews and key themes that arose. D\&I is now a key business imperative for all EMS organisations but much work still needs to be done before effective practice in D\&I can be achieved. However, these organisations also contain pre-existing strengths and knowledge that present considerable opportunities. Achieving effective D\&I is a long-term proposition with many challenges, and for organisations who have the courage to persist through this process, the benefits of a more diverse and inclusive organisation are there to be realised.

}, isbn = {978-1-86272-784-7}, issn = {363}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Margarita Kumnick} } @article {bnh-5051, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\  their behaviour and resultant severity driven by complicated interactions among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ 

}, issn = {426}, author = {Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary and Albert van Dijk} } @conference {bnh-4768, title = {Mental health and wellbeing in the police and emergency services sector}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

While work in the emergency services sector is vital to the wellbeing of our communities, it can often be demanding and stressful. People who work or volunteer for ambulance, fire and rescue, police and state emergency services can face life and death challenges and at times respond to very distressing situations. Supporting and protecting the wellbeing of police and emergency service employees and volunteers is a key priority across the sector.

beyondblue is currently undertaking the National Mental Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services, with support from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Phase two of this study involves the first nationally representative survey of police and emergency services workers and volunteers in Australia. This survey, called Answering the Call, is being conducted by The University of Western Australia and Roy Morgan Research on behalf of beyondblue. With participation from over 30 agencies from all Australian states and territories, the survey is investigating the prevalence of wellbeing and mental health conditions, the use of support services and programs, stigma, workplace culture and dynamics and other factors that impact on the wellbeing of police and emergency services personnel.

While results from the survey are expected to be released later in 2018, this presentation will discuss the approach that was taken to measure issues affecting mental health and wellbeing, the challenges faced in conducting the survey; and barriers and opportunities in engaging with agencies across the sector. An overview of what is already known from previous research in police and emergency services agencies and related sectors both in Australia and internationally will also be provided.

}, author = {David Lawrence and Wavne Rikkers and Jennifer Bartlett} } @article {bnh-5267, title = {Models of buoyant plume rise}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document has been written to provide a review of the plume-rise literature that is of relevance to two sub-projects of the "Improved prediction of severe weather to reduce community impact" project funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC).\  The plume rise literature is a vast body of work that has been reviewed several times by leading experts (e.g., Scorer 1959, Briggs 1975, Briggs 1984, Weil 1988, Arya 1999 Chapter 10).\  This document borrows from the review papers and targets only background information relevant to the above-mentioned sub-projects: an ember transport model, and a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) prediction tool.

The ember transport model is being designed as a parameterization tool that represents the distribution of burning embers carried by a wildfire plume.\  It is computationally very cheap to run and can be used off-line or within existing fire-spread or coupled fire-atmosphere models.\  The model inputs are fire size and intensity, and atmospheric variables such as the background wind field and static stability profile.\  The plume rise equations are used to determine ember lofting heights and downwind transport.

The pyroCb prediction tool is designed to identify the potential for pyroCb formation from a single atmospheric sounding.\  It can be applied to observed soundings to give single value estimates and applied to model data (numerical weather prediction models, reanalysis data sets, climate model data) to generate maps of pyroCb threat.\  A theoretical minimum plume height and buoyancy can be determined from an atmospheric sounding (Tory et al. 2018), which is input to plume rise equations to determine a theoretical minimum fire power required to generate a plume with these minimum qualities.

}, issn = {451}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-4686, title = {Motivations and experiences of sheltering in place during floods: Implications for policy and practice}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {7}, chapter = {781}, abstract = {

Whilst much research considers evacuation behaviours during floods and other natural hazard events, and how to motivate greater compliance to evacuation orders, there is little research documenting peoples{\textquoteright} reasons for, and experiences of, sheltering at their home or business during floods. Focusing on the experiences of residents and business owners who sheltered during a major flood event, this study explores the motivations for staying during floods, residents{\textquoteright} practices while sheltering, and the attendant challenges and impacts. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were conducted with residents and business owners in the Richmond, Brunswick and Tweed river catchments in New South Wales in the months following an extensive flood event in 2017. The research identified a culture of sheltering during floods in these communities that is passed down through families and communities. Nuanced personal and locally specific factors influenced decisions to shelter, and official warnings and evacuation orders were often considered inaccurate or too late, or disregarded due to {\textquoteleft}warning fatigue{\textquoteright}. Findings also reveal that sheltering can be physically and psychologically challenging, and often involves actively defending people, property, and possessions from floodwaters. This study highlights the critical importance of context to understanding sheltering decisions, and consequently, the need for nuance in emergency management responses and risk communication. It also shows the importance of understanding what sheltering involves and its impacts, particularly given increasing pressure to urbanise and develop flood plains.

}, keywords = {beaviour, communities, emergency management., Evacuation, Floods, response, risk communication}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304345}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Ashley Avci and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {bnh-4336, title = {Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {100}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {175-200}, chapter = {175}, abstract = {

Modelling of land-use change plays an important role in many areas of environmental planning. However, land-use change models remain challenging to calibrate, as they contain many sensitive parameters, making the calibration process time-consuming. We present a multi-objective optimisation framework for automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models with multiple dynamic land-use classes. The framework considers objectives related to locational agreement and landscape pattern structure, as well as the inherent stochasticity of land-use models. The framework was tested on the Randstad region in the Netherlands, identifying 77 model parameter sets that generated a Pareto front of optimal trade-off solutions between the objectives. A selection of these parameter sets was assessed further based on heuristic knowledge, evaluating the simulated output maps and parameter values to determine a final calibrated model. This research demonstrates that heuristic knowledge complements the evaluation of land-use models calibrated using formal optimisation methods.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217306862}, author = {Charles Newland and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Jeffrey Newman and Hedwig van Delden} } @article {bnh-5072, title = {Multiple objective optimisation framework for automatic parameter tuning of Cellular Automata land-use models with multiple dynamic land-use classes}, journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, volume = {100}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {175-200}, chapter = {175}, abstract = {

Modelling of land-use change plays an important role in many areas of environmental planning. However, land-use change models remain challenging to calibrate, as they contain many sensitive parameters, making the calibration process time-consuming. We present a multi-objective optimisation framework for automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models with multiple dynamic land-use classes. The framework considers objectives related to locational agreement and landscape pattern structure, as well as the inherent stochasticity of land-use models. The framework was tested on the Randstad region in the Netherlands, identifying 77 model parameter sets that generated a Pareto front of optimal tradeoff solutions between the objectives. A selection of these parameter sets was assessed further based on heuristic knowledge, evaluating the simulated output maps and parameter values to determine a final calibrated model. This research demonstrates that heuristic knowledge complements the evaluation of land-use models calibrated using formal optimisation methods.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217306862?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Charles Newland and Hedwig van Delden and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-6166, title = {My grab bag is two suitcases: an autoethnographical view of a super-plus size self-evacuation from Hurricane Irma}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management - Monograph}, volume = {3}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {50-54}, abstract = {

The capacities and vulnerabilities of people with extreme obesity have yet to be explored in disaster risk reduction literature. Whilst people have been impacted in disasters in relation to their size, shape and weight, the literature is {\textquoteleft}conspicuously invisible{\textquoteright} on this topic and where guidance exists, people{\textquoteright}s own accounts are missing. Through autoethnography, the authors relate what was entailed in self evacuation for a super-plus size person in advance of Hurricane Irma making landfall at Sarasota in September 2017. The article identifies and discusses issues that impact on the ability of people with extreme obesity to prepare and respond in disasters.

}, keywords = {disaster; vulnerability; obesity}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328215321_My_grab_bag_is_two_suitcases_An_autoethnographical_view_of_a_super-plus_size_self-evacuation_from_Hurricane_Irma}, author = {Lesley Gray and Carol Macdonald} } @article {bnh-5062, title = {The natural hazard sector{\textquoteright}s engagement with Indigenous peoples: a critical review of CANZUS countries}, journal = {Geographical research}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, abstract = {

Natural hazard management agencies across the settler countries Canada, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, and the United States (or CANZUS countries) are presently involved in an increasing range of collaborative and consultative engagements with Indigenous peoples. However, perhaps because these engagements are diverse and relatively recent, little has been written about how they emerged and, from these agencies{\textquoteright} perspectives, little is known about how these engagements find their motivation within government natural hazard management frameworks. In this article, we review existing academic and grey literature to categorise the origins of recent and present engagements and then identify and elaborate on the key rationales informing natural hazard management agencies{\textquoteright} interactions with Indigenous peoples. We argue both that the broad principles of sustainability and inclusion have transformed these interactions and that developmentalist approaches and an overemphasis on Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} traditional knowledge can sometimes undermine this work. Incorporating critiques of settler colonialism relevant to the CANZUS context, this review aims to support established, emerging, and future collaborative engagements by investigating and analysing the literature to date.

}, doi = {10.1111/1745-5871.12314 }, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-5871.12314}, author = {Annick Thomassin and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-6255, title = {Navigating the fiery debate: the role of scientific evidence in eliciting policy and management responses for contentious plants in northern Australia}, journal = {Pacific Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {318-328}, abstract = {

Australia{\textquoteright}s vast tropical savannas contain outstanding biodiversity and cultural values. The region supports many industries, with broad-scale pastoralism being the most widespread. Hundreds of plant species were introduced into northern Australia to support the pastoral industry; some species have since been termed {\textquoteleft}contentious{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}conflict{\textquoteright} species due to their perceived positive value for industry but negative impacts on non-pastoral values when they invaded non-pastoral landscapes. Heated political and public debate ensued about the appropriate policy and management response to these species based on people{\textquoteright}s perceptions of values being altered by invasion by these species, and conflicting views on what constituted appropriate management actions to control their use and spread. Here we share our insights into the role of scientific evidence in progressing this debate, by quantifying the impacts of species on environmental, socioeconomic and cultural values. We reflect on the importance of science for underpinning evidence-based risk management tools, the outputs of which supported policy response by politicians and other policy decision-makers. We also assess the gap in translation from policy to coordinated on-ground action at the national scale, and provide our insights into the contribution that science can make to bridging this gap.

}, keywords = {conservation biology, conservation policy, invasive species, policy and planning, Savanna}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/PC18028}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/pc/PC18028}, author = {Setterfield, SA and Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie and Vanessa M Adams} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5397, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: a qualitative study of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This thesis is a grounded theory analysis of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster.\  Friday 4 January 2013 was one of the most significant fire days in Tasmania since 1967.\  The fire threatened life and left a trail of destruction, animals perished, homes, livelihood and landscape were destroyed or damaged.\  Despite this there appeared to be a level of social structure and processes evident.\  Many residents carried out a range of actions and activities before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  It appeared that residents had a way of doing things and these actions were significant.\  In the post disaster phase, many of these local processes appeared to be overlooked by the well-intentioned external help or overwhelmed by the visitor-related goodwill.\ 

The analysis presented in this thesis focuses on the local social processes.\  The main question opening the inquiry was - What is community-led recovery in the context of a bushfire hazard and disaster?\  The qualitative research design involved in-depth interviews, to develop an explanatory account of the phenomenon of interest based on the analysis of people{\textquoteright}s experience and perspectives.\  The 40 people who participated in this study were residents of the small communities impacted by the bushfire disaster, external support volunteers, and representatives of local and state government and non-government services.

The constructivist grounded theory approach that was adopted by the researcher, constructed a theory grounded in the data that was collected by research participants.\  The grounded theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} outlines processes of surviving a bushfire disaster.\  A psychosocial process represents an interpretive understanding of what community members encountered before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  The substantive theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} is built around community member{\textquoteright}s main concerns and what they did to resolve their concerns; their decision-making and actions underpinned by the meaning they gave to their experience.\  In a context of uncertainty community members depended on processes and systems that were familiar to them which fostered a sense of stability and helped sustain them through a period of change.\  This research concludes it is necessary to understand the holistic nature of people{\textquoteright}s lived experience in disaster events.\  Recovery includes the way people interpret and manage their context throughout a bushfire disaster, not just the post-disaster phase.\  Furthermore, the research identifies the importance of safeguarding and sustaining social stability, and approaches that support the participation of community members in a way that is meaningful and respectful of their experience.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, community, disaster, grounded theory, recovery}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162621}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-6039, title = {Near real-time extracting wildfire spread rate from Himawari-8 satellite data}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {1654}, abstract = {

Fire Spread Rate (FSR) can indicate how fast a fire is spreading, which is especially helpful for wildfire rescue and management. Historically, images obtained from sun-orbiting satellites such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to detect active fire and burned area at the large spatial scale. However, the daily revisit cycles make them inherently unable to extract FSR in near real--time (hourly or less). We argue that the Himawari-8, a next generation geostationary satellite with a 10-min temporal resolution and 0.5{\textendash}2 km spatial resolution, may have the potential for near real-time FSR extraction. To that end, we propose a novel method (named H8-FSR) for near real-time FSR extraction based on the Himawari-8 data. The method first defines the centroid of the burned area as the fire center and then the near real-time FSR is extracted by timely computing the movement rate of the fire center. As a case study, the method was applied to the Esperance bushfire that broke out on 17 November, 2015, in Western Australia. Compared with the estimated FSR using the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Grassland Fire Spread (GFS) model, H8-FSR achieved favorable performance with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.54, mean bias error of {\textendash}0.75 m/s, mean absolute percent error of 33.20\% and root mean square error of 1.17 m/s, respectively. These results demonstrated that the Himawari-8 data are valuable for near real-time FSR extraction, and also suggested that the proposed method could be potentially applicable to other next generation geostationary satellite data.

}, keywords = {fire spread rate; fire center; fire behavior; Himawari-8; near real-time}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101654}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/10/1654}, author = {Xiangzhuo Liu and Binbin He and Xingwen Quan and Marta Yebra and Shi Qiu and Changming Yin and Zhanmang Liao and Hongguo Zhang} } @article {bnh-7234, title = {A novel framework for owner driven reconstruction projects to enhance disaster resilience in the long term}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {421-446}, abstract = {

Purpose

Post-disaster reconstruction poses a double-edged sword to its implementers as it demands addressing survivors{\textquoteright} need for speed as well as meeting the growing expectation to trigger resilience. While an owner-driven housing reconstruction (ODHR), inter-disciplinary and long-term approach has been promoted internationally; however, there is limited research focussed on the long-term impacts (\>10 years after a disaster) of ODHR. Furthermore, there is no one accepted framework for practitioners to guide through the process of ODHR projects to carve pathways for disaster resilience. The purpose of this paper is to assimilate findings{\textemdash}contingent and generalisable{\textemdash}into a novel framework for future change in practice.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper deployed a mixed methods methodology with a comparative case study research method. Two case study projects were from the Indian state of Gujarat, 13 years after the 2001 earthquake and the other two from Bihar, 6 years since the 2008 Kosi river floods. Due to multi-disciplinary nature of research, empirical data collection relied on a mix of social sciences methods including 80 semi-structured interviews, and architectural research methods including the visual analysis of photographs and sketches. Three sample groups of agency members, beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries were purposively selected. Thematic content analysis was used for the data analysis.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights on how ODHR projects in Indian states of Gujarat and Bihar succeeded at enhancing disaster resilience of communities. It suggests that the civil society organisations acted as {\textquotedblleft}enablers{\textquotedblright} at four stages: envisioning strategically based on systemic understanding, building soft assets including community trust and dignity for social mobilisation prior to, proposing minor modifications to construction technology for its multi-hazard safety as well as cultural relevance, and sustaining capacity building efforts beyond reconstruction completion or beyond one project life-cycle.

Research limitations/implications

The author of this paper cautions that the spiral framework needs further development to make it flexibility and customisable to suit the specifics of a particular context.

Originality/value

The implications of the findings discussed in this paper are primarily for practitioners involved in disaster recovery and development sector. Since prevailing models or frameworks neither incorporate multi-disciplinary approach (demanded by socio-ecological systems resilience concept), nor represent project scale, a novel, four-pronged framework for ODHR has been proposed in this paper for strategic success. The framework has been illustrated in spiral and tabular forms, and has been kept abstract to provide practitioners the much-needed flexibility for adapting it to suit the specifics of a particular context.

}, keywords = {Capacity building; post-disaster reconstruction, disaster resilience, framework, owner-driven reconstruction, project management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-11-2017-0285}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/DPM-11-2017-0285/full/html}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @article {bnh-6761, title = {Opportunities and constraints identified in existing frameworks in use for organisational learning}, number = {543}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This deliverable is adapted from the Owen, Bethune \& Krusel (2018) Report on Research Utilisation Review. This review was a collaboration between AFAC, the BNHCRC and the Decision tools project {\textendash} organisational learning stream. The review included previous data collection about use of BNHCRC tools (e.g., websites, hazard notes) as well as the opportunity to collect data nationally to inform the Decision Making tools organisational learning stream. That included the work further developing and validating a research utilisation matrix and to identify opportunities and constraints in agencies for organisational learning.

The analysis reported here continues to be further advanced in discussions with the Knowledge Innovation and Research Utilisation Network (KIRUN) where the findings were presented in August 2018. Based on that consultation work continues to be advanced to establish the next deliverable:

Framework synthesising existing agency practice in assessing and evaluating evidence that may require organisational learning and change{\textquotedblright}. The further development will also facilitate the development of papers for publication.

}, keywords = {data, Emergency management, organisational learning, Research utilisation}, issn = {543}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-5153, title = {Out-of-plane strength of existing two-way spanning solid and cavity unreinforced masonry walls}, journal = {Structures}, volume = {13}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {88-101}, chapter = {88}, abstract = {

An in-situ unreinforced masonry (URM) wall testing programme was conducted to study the effects of as-built wall boundary conditions on its out-of-plane strength. In total, eight pressure-controlled quasi-static airbag tests were done on 4 double-leaf cavity walls and 4 single-leaf solid walls, followed by relevant material testing. The walls were located in two 1960s URM properties in Adelaide, South Australia and had in-situ boundary conditions and construction details. Several walls included door openings at one edge and/or connected to flexible ceilings at top. Other as-built details included plaster finish on some of the internal walls and on the inner leaf of some of the external cavity walls. Additionally, the cavity walls had as-built wall ties that were damaged during construction and had irregular spacing. The main contributions of this study are to highlight the effects of these in-situ details, to make a comparison between strength predictions using an energy-based, virtual work method and an equilibrium-based method, and to improve the virtual work method for evaluation of the walls that have plaster finish. The calculations indicate that the improved virtual work method can be used to obtain a safe, lower bound, estimate of the wall strength.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2017.11.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352012417300747}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Wade Lucas and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5324, title = {Owner-driven housing reconstruction as a means of enhancing disaster resilience of at-risk communities in India}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {247}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key question facing disaster recovery scholars and practitioners is the mode of reconstruction in post-disaster context so as to trigger adaptability in the construction sector and disaster resilience in residents. Despite significant advancement in theoretical understanding of concepts (disaster, disaster risk, vulnerability and socio-ecological systems (SES) resilience) and approaches to post-disaster recovery (process-driven, multi-stakeholder, cross-disciplinary and an owner-driven housing reconstruction (ODHR)), linking reconstruction to resilience remains problematic. The literature review presented in this PhD with Publication discusses two main hurdles in reconstruction contributing to resilience objectives, as: one, a rather narrow focus on one{\textquoteright}s field of expertise and two, the lack of research focused on the long-term impacts of ODHR projects. This PhD with publication aims to identify contingent yet generalisable issues and factors, which determine the success or failure of projects in terms of enhancing disaster resilience and long-term developmental needs of the community.

In order to address the identified gap in the ODHR literature, this PhD has deployed a comparative case study research methodology, predominantly using qualitative/interpretative research methods. A mixed methods methodology, including some methods taken from built environment research and others from the social science, has been used. Four ODHR projects were selected from rural parts of India: two are from Gujarat, following the 2001 earthquake, while the other two case studies are from Bihar, after the 2008 Kosi River floods. The case studies in Gujarat allow investigating the long-term outcomes of the ODHR (13 years after the disaster), Bihar allows for the medium-term outcomes (6 years after the disaster). This research has been conducted in two stages and includes 80 in-depth interviews were conducted, including 34 CSO members, professionals and government official, 37 beneficiaries and 9 nonbeneficiaries.

The research findings from the four ODHR projects prove that the Indian CSOs have been able to link ODHR projects to long-term disaster resilience impacts in ways that have international significance. The CSO practice {\textendash} from 2001 to 2008 {\textendash} had also evolved from being {\textquoteleft}facilitators{\textquoteright} to {\textquoteleft}enablers{\textquoteright}, seeking to build the capacities of locals from the early stages of reconstruction. These findings suggest that the projects where CSOs ensured: 1) systems based\ and strategic envisioning, 2) social mobilisation, 3) proposing minor technical modifications, and 4) sustaining capacity building efforts beyond reconstruction completion or beyond one project life cycle, had the potential to leave a legacy of disaster resilience (self-organising and capable residents). The findings were assimilated in a novel ODHR framework and illustrated in spiral form for use by practitioners, globally. The development of this framework is the most significant outcome of this PhD. However, the author urges practitioners to customise the framework to suit a particular context and to address its systemic challenges, prior to use. The most significant finding of all was a need to enhance people{\textquoteright}s capabilities {\textendash} their freedom to choose {\textendash} to maintain their own disaster resilience.

}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162406/Vahanvati.pdf}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6625, title = {Parenting after Black Saturday: lived experiences since the 2009 Victorian bushfires}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the aftermath of disasters, parenting is often recognised for its influence on children{\textquoteright}s wellbeing and recovery. Research has also shown that the parental role has implications for parents{\textquoteright} post-disaster mental health as well. However, little is known about what the experience is like for parents themselves, particularly in Australia. In February 2009, catastrophic bushfires burned across the state of Victoria resulting in tragic loss of life, significant destruction of property and land, and disruption to communities. This study explored what it has been like to be a parent since the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents (19 mothers, 3 fathers) who, along with their dependent children, survived the Black Saturday bushfires. The interviews were conducted around 6-7 years following the fires, thus offering a longer-term perspective than much of the research in this area to date. An inductive thematic analysis was conducted to explore parental experiences over the years since the disaster.

The findings provide insight into parents{\textquoteright} experience of adjusting to life after the fires as that of being forced into a new normal. Parenting after the bushfires stood out for many as being different and difficult. For some, the extent or nature of the changes were spoken about as a loss of a valued part of their identity. Some changes stood out as new situations, ones they had never expected to face as parents. There were also challenges they considered typical of parenting which were amplified after the disaster and now felt beyond parents{\textquoteright} control.

This study identified five parenting challenges faced by participants in the aftermath of Black Saturday: (i) parenting flexibly and finding new strategies; (ii) sticking to their values; (iii) being present and available; (iv) being patient and tolerant; and, (v) negotiating differing needs. The challenges showed ways in which the post-disaster environment (e.g., the number of demands, changes within their communities), parental mental health (their own or their partner{\textquoteright}s trauma and grief reactions) and their children{\textquoteright}s mental health at times undermined their efforts to be the parents that they wanted to be.

Parental experiences of supports and services showed the value and nuance of relationships and indicated ways in which formal services can facilitate or strengthen social support. Additionally, the importance of reinforcements with helping children cope as well as services to assist parents{\textquoteright} own coping was highlighted. The findings also speak to the critical significance of childcare (in particular the availability of safe and trusted places for children) and value in facilitating opportunities for time together as a family away from the onslaught of post-disaster demands.

This study contributes to understanding the complexities of parenting and unique experiences of parents post-disaster. It has provided detailed insight into parental experiences following the Black Saturday bushfires offering an opportunity to acknowledge, normalize, and validate such challenges.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disaster, parental experience, parenting}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/222996}, author = {Lauren Kosta} } @article {bnh-6037, title = {Particle tracking and detection software for firebrands characterization in wildland fires}, journal = {Fire Technology}, volume = {55}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, pages = { 817-836}, abstract = {

Detection and analysis of the objects in a frame or a sequence of frames (video) can be used to solve a number of problems in various fields, including the field of fire behaviour and risk. A quantitative understanding of the short distance spotting dynamics, namely the firebrand density distribution within a distance from the fire front and how distinct fires coalesce in a highly turbulent environment, is still lacking. To address this, a custom software was developed in order to detect the location and the number of flying firebrands in a thermal image then determine the temperature and sizes of each firebrand. The software consists of two modules, the detector and the tracker. The detector determines the location of the firebrands in the frame, and the tracker compares the firebrand in different frames and determines the identification number of each firebrand. Comparison of the calculated results with the data obtained by the independent experts and experimental data showed that the maximum relative error does not exceed 12\% for the low and medium number of firebrands in the frame (less than 30) and software agrees well with experimental observations for firebrands \> 20 {\texttimes} 10-5\ m. It was found that fireline intensity below 12,590\ kW\ m-1\ does not change significantly 2D firebrand flux for firebrands bigger than 20 {\texttimes} 10-5\ m, while occasional crowning can increase the firebrand flux in several times. The developed software allowed us to analyse the thermograms obtained during the field experiments and to measure the velocities, sizes and temperatures of the firebrands. It will help to better understand of how the firebrands can ignite the surrounding fuel beds and could be an important tool in investigating fire propagation in communities.

}, keywords = {Firebrand detection, Firebrand tracking, Firebrands, Structural, Wildland}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-018-0805-0}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-018-0805-0}, author = {Alex Filkov and Sergey Prohanov} } @conference {bnh-4777, title = {Performance of fire detection algorithms using himawari-8}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Accuracy is an important aspect of fire hotspot detection.\  Errors in the H8-AHI WFABBA fire hotspot detection can lead to a loss of trust in a fire hotspot detection product.\  Compared to MODIS and VIIRS polar-orbiting satellites hotspot detections, the WF-ABBA hotspot detection product over Australia 0400 UTC had minimum commission error rates of 31\% (Winter), 35\% (Summer), 48\% (Spring) and 54\% Autumn over 1 Dec 2015 {\textendash} 30 Nov 2016.\  The WF-ABBA algorithm was originally developed for America and was not tuned specifically for the Australian continent.\  Here we create a new Himawari fire-hotspot algorithm tuned dynamically for 419 Australian bioregions.\  The new algorithm 0400 UTC had minimum commission error rates, in comparison to MODIS/VIIR hotspot detections, of 6\% (Summer), 8\% (Spring), 20\% (Winter) and 41\% (Autumn) over 1 Dec 2015 {\textendash} 30 Nov 2016.\  These commission rates are a considerable improvement over the currently available (WF-ABBA) fire hotspot product.

}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @conference {bnh-4795, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading events}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe, with the Spanish Flu (1918-1919) and Cyclone Tracey (1974) being perhaps two historic examples that have overwhelmed systems of management. Catastrophic events require the adoption of a whole of community approach. However, this is challenged by the culture of emergency services and wider community apathy. This report provides insights into building increased preparedness to reduce the occurrence of catastrophic disasters based upon a review of the global literature. Implications for practitioners are discussed.

}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-5157, title = {Plastic hinge analysis for lightly reinforced and unconfined concrete structural walls}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {16}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {4825-4860}, chapter = {4825}, abstract = {

Poor performance of lightly reinforced and unconfined concrete structural walls have been observed in recent earthquake events. This research investigates the displacement capacity of such walls by comparing the results of a series of state-of-the-art finite element analyses for a range of different structural walls to that estimated using plastic hinge analyses. The common expressions used in estimating the yield curvature, yield displacement and plastic displacement are scrutinised for these types of walls. Some recommendations are given to improve the prediction of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced and unconfined rectangular and C-shaped walls for flexural actions using a plastic hinge analysis. Importantly, a parameter has been recommended to be used in a {\textquotedblleft}modified{\textquotedblright} approach for estimating the nominal yield displacement of lightly reinforced concrete walls. Different expressions are also recommended depending on the amount of longitudinal reinforcement used in the wall in comparison to that required to initiate secondary cracking. This is important for providing better estimations of the displacement capacity of RC structural wall buildings in low-to-moderate seismic regions such that vulnerability studies can be conducted.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0369-x}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10518-018-0369-x}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-5156, title = {Plastic hinge length for lightly reinforced C-shaped concrete walls}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, abstract = {

This research investigates the equivalent plastic hinge length of reinforced concrete C-shaped walls with reinforcement detailing typically found in low-to-moderate seismic regions. Reinforced concrete walls in these regions commonly have low amounts of longitudinal reinforcement and unconfined boundary regions, which have been shown to perform poorly in recent earthquake events. A series of state-of-the-art finite element analyses are undertaken to find the longitudinal strain distributions of low-rise, mid-rise, and high-rise C-shaped walls. The results of the equivalent plastic hinge lengths from the numerical investigation are shown to compare poorly to the predictions from some of the equations that currently exist in the literature. Subsequently, expressions are derived for the equivalent plastic hinge length for these types of walls and for the different modes of bending. The expressions derived from this research intend to improve the displacement capacity for these types of walls when using plastic hinge analyses.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2018.1453419}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632469.2018.1453419}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4955, title = {Practical and theoretical issues: integrating urban planning and emergency management}, number = {414}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This report examines selected examples of integration between urban planning and emergency management in Australia. It seeks to identify initial issues to implementation at National and State level. Overall, this report argues that an integrated approach will require a coordinated framework at the strategic, tactical and operational levels, across functional areas and stakeholders, to establish an effective integrated governance approach that offers desired societal outcomes when faced with extreme events.

The key purpose of urban planning is to bring about improvements and avoid problems in human settlements that would not be achieved without intervention, organization and facilitation (Hall, 2007).\  While urban planning can occur in various forms and can use many mechanisms that seek a range of goals, its actions are primarily oriented to the physical characteristics of cities, towns and regions.\  This combines with the characteristics and distribution of people and the interactions and activities they undertake in various locations as the outcomes of planning.\ 

}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Dovers, Steve and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-5020, title = {Predictive applications of Australian flood loss models after a temporal and spatial transfer}, journal = {Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk }, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {14}, chapter = {416}, abstract = {

In recent decades, considerably greater flood losses have increased attention to flood risk evaluation. This study used data-sets collected from Queensland flood events and investigated the predictive capacity of three new Australian flood loss models to assess the extent of physical damages, after a temporal and spatial transfer. The models{\textquoteright} predictive power is tested for precision, variation, and reliability. The performance of a new Australian flood loss function was contrasted with two tree-based damage models, one pruned and one un-pruned. The tree-based models are grown based on the interaction of flood loss ratio with 13 examined predictors gathered from flood specifications, building characteristics, and mitigation actions. Besides an overall comparison, the prediction capacity is also checked for some sub-classes of water depth and some groups of building-type.

It has been shown that considering more details of the flood damage process can improve the predictive capacity of damage prediction models. In this regard, complexity with parameters with low predictive power may lead to more uncertain results. On the other hand, it has also been demonstrated that the probability analysis approach can make damage models more reliable when they are subjected to use in different flooding events.

}, keywords = {damage assessment, Disaster risk reduction, flood risk, Natural hazards, predictive capacity}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2018.1445666}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo} } @article {bnh-5130, title = {Preparedness for natural hazards: testing an expanded education- and engagement-enhanced social cognitive model}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {91}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {19-35}, chapter = {19}, abstract = {

This study sought to answer the question {\textquotedblleft}do factors in a model of {\textquoteleft}engaged education{\textquoteright} predict preparedness for natural hazards?{\textquotedblright} The sample consisted of 291 participants, recruited via university student and snowball sampling strategies. Participants completed an online questionnaire containing predictor measures linked to an expanded social cognitive model of preparedness for hazards: indices that assessed positive outcome expectancy, negative outcome expectancy, trust, distrust, confidence, empowerment, collective efficacy, responsibility, participation and education. Criterion measures included indices measuring intentions to prepare and preparedness behaviours. Results indicated that the measure of preparedness, modified for an Australian context, showed good reliability. Australian participants had lower levels of preparedness compared to New Zealand participants. Neither the original or expanded social cognitive model was a good predictor of intentions to prepare or preparedness behaviour, and a more parsimonious model of individual factors best predicted preparedness for natural hazards. These individual factors were negative outcome expectancy, personal responsibility for preparedness and children participating in a hazards education program. Adults participating in emergency-related training were also found to predict having a safety plan. The research also considered trust and confidence in social media, and distrust of government. The implications for preparedness practice and further research are discussed, along with the limitations and recommendations for future research.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3093-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-017-3093-y}, author = {Barb Kelly and Kevin Ronan} } @conference {bnh-4769, title = {Prevalence and predictors of mental health in firefighters}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Firefighters{\textquoteright} role in emergency management exposes them to a range of stressors. It is recognised that a small but sometimes significant proportion of firefighters will develop mental health problems that may create significant distress and costs to the individual and the fire service. However, the literature is inconclusive not only about the prevalence of the commonly experienced mental health disorders associated with exposure to potentially traumatic events (Heinrichs et al., 2005; Del Ben et al., 2006; Regehr et al., 2003), but also about the range of factors associated with their development (Marmar et al., 2006; Meyer et al., 2012; Di Gangi et al., 2013).

This paper presents the findings of a longitudinal study of mental health in Australian firefighters that is being conducted in the course of a PhD. 335 firefighters from four Australian fire services completed a self-report survey twice, 12 months apart, and 300 firefighters participated in a structured clinical interview. The purpose of the study was to establish the prevalence rates, and the factors which contributed to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety and alcohol disorder in this sample of career and volunteer firefighters.

}, author = {Heather Bancroft} } @conference {bnh-5024, title = {Pyroconvective interactions and dynamic fire propagation}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Modelling the dynamic propagation of wildfires remains a significant challenge. Pyroconvective interactions between the fire and the atmosphere, or between different parts of the fire itself, can produce distinctly non-steady modes of fire propagation that cannot be accounted for using current operational models.


While sophisticated three-dimensional models (e.g. computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or coupled fire-atmosphere models) have been successfully applied to wildfires, their computational requirements render them impractical for operational usage.


Here we discuss a computationally efficient two-dimensional propagation model, which can accurately replicate dynamic features of fire spread that cannot be simulated using existing two-dimensional models. These features include the development of a wind-driven fire line into a parabolic shape, attraction between nearby fires and the observed closing behaviour of junction fires. The model is compared to experimental results with good agreement.
The model incorporates a simple sub-model to account for the inflow of air generated by a fire, which allows the model to run orders of magnitude faster than full physical models, while still capturing many of the essential features of dynamic fire propagation. We argue that such a model could lead to significant improvements in operational wildfire prediction.
In addition, we will highlight some recent insights in to how the geometry of a fire line and the flaming zone influences development of the pyroconvective plume above a fire. In particular, we present evidence that the geometry of the burning region can affect plume development in a way that is comparable to the effect of total energy release.

}, author = {James Hilton and Badlan, R and Sullivan, Andrew and Swedosh, W and Thomas, C. M. and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-6057, title = {Quantitative assessment of flood discharges and floodway failures through cross-cultivation of advancement in knowledge and traditional practices}, journal = {International journal of disaster resilience in the built environment}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = { 435-456}, abstract = {

Purpose

The 2011 and 2013 Queensland, Australia flood events caused massive infrastructure damage for low-level stream crossings such as floodways and culverts in regional Queensland. Failures of newly built floodways during the 2013 Queensland flood event in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council area raised significant concerns with respect to floodway design practices adopted in Australia and attracted significant research interest to enhance the resilience of floodways. Review of existing floodway design guidelines indicates that floodway design process is closely related to hydraulic and hydrological aspects. However, conducting a hydrological analysis is a challenging in rural areas, mainly owing to information scarcity. Floodways in rural areas often require a simple and economical solution contrast to more detailed hydrological analysis approaches adopted in urbanised areas. This paper aims to identify and apply the rational method to estimate maximum flood discharges at selected floodway locations in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council area. The paper further attempts to provide the first insight of flood characteristics during the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events at three catchment outputs across the selected case study area. It also highlights modern day challenges for practising engineers and researchers when estimating flood characteristics in rural areas. The paper shows that cross-cultivation of advancement in engineering practices and traditional approaches can promote quantitative approaches when assessing floodway damage in regional areas.

Design/Methodology/Approach

The research identifies limitations when assessing flood impact in rural regions in collaboration with experience from industry partners and authors themselves. The authors developed a framework to overcome those limitations arising from information scarcity to minimise the trial and error design approaches utilised in the current design practices for floodways.

Findings

This paper developed a simple and effective hydrological method with minimum inputs. It also provides an example on collating available but scattered resources and traditional method to quantitatively assess flood discharges of a rural catchment in Australia. Flood discharges at three catchment outlets along the Left-Hand Branch Road in the Lockyer Valley Region during both 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events are estimated for the first time. The findings highlight the impact of flood discharges and flooded period on floodway failures.

Research implications/limitations

The current research is based on a selected case study area in Australia. However, similar challenges are expected all across the world, due to the scarcity of rainfall and flood measurement gauges.

Practical implications

Floodway designers can apply similar framework to estimate the flood discharges instead of current practice of trial and error process. This will provide more scientific and reliable estimation and assessment process.

Social implications

One of the social impacts identified in the broader research is the community outrages and disagreement between floodway design engineers and the community. Following the developed framework in the manuscript, design engineers will be able to justify their assumptions and design work.

Originality/value

The paper presents a novel framework on collating different and scattered information towards estimating flood discharges in rural areas. The manuscript presents the first insights on estimated flood discharges in the selected case study area during the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events. This will enable further research to be performed in a quantitative manner rather than the present approach of qualitative manner.

}, keywords = {Damaged assets, Flood discharge, Flooding, rainfall}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-09-2017-0051}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDRBE-09-2017-0051/full/html}, author = {Buddhi Wahalathantri and Weena Lokuge and Karu Karunasena and Sujeeva Setunge} } @conference {bnh-4789, title = {Real people, real stories- if it{\textquoteright}s flooded forget it}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Between 2000 and 2015, 178 people died from floods in Australia.\  Despite the strong messaging from emergency services, people continue to drive or walk through floodwater, putting their lives at risk. In response, the NSW State Emergency Service has developed a range of video stories depicting people{\textquoteright}s decision making processes and experiences entering floodwater and activated them as part of a comprehensive social media campaign - thereby incorporating a modern day approach to engage with the community about the dangers of entering floodwater.\  The videos present the real people recounting their decision to drive through floodwater, the consequences of their actions and the take home message.\  Evidence from commissioned research and research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre determined the themes of these stories.\  The stories include: Sonya, a mother that crossed a flooded river due to peer pressure from her passengers; Peter, a farmer who nearly drowned after entering floodwater to rescue cattle; Tom, a young man that entered floodwater to impress girls in the car and Jaime, a mother who turned around for fear of putting the lives of her children at risk. During the 6 week campaign, the content was seen over 800,000 times, and videos were viewed more than 400,000 times. The campaign reached over 150,000 individual young men in NSW, and over half a million more people outside of the target group.\  Engagement with the campaign was also high, with 28,000 people liking, sharing, or commenting. In 2016 the project was awarded the Government section of the NSW Resilient Australia Awards.\ 

}, author = {Samantha Karmel} } @conference {bnh-4809, title = {Real-time flood inundation mapping for flood intelligence {\textendash} a case study from India}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Bihar is India{\textquoteright}s most flood-prone State, with 76 percent of the northern population living under the recurring threat of flooding. Annual monsoon floods claim lives and destroy homes and livelihoods, seriously impacting the economy and poverty alleviation efforts. The Bagmati River is one of Bihar{\textquoteright}s major rivers, draining the Kathmandu Valley in the foothills of the Himalayas before entering flat agricultural plains of Northern Bihar.

With no pre-existing flood modelling or mapping, this project started with a blank worksheet, with the objective to forecast flooding a week ahead of occurrence, and generate real-time inundation mapping resulting from embankment failure.\  The project established a flood forecasting framework which loads and processes data from national and international sources and provides an interface for real-time hydrologic and hydraulic modelling.

The project faced many challenges, particularly related to availability of data. Despite these challenges, a flood forecasting framework has been established which provides capacity for evolution of the system, has supported local capacity building and will greatly improve understanding of flood behaviour. The system represents a step-change improvement for flood forecasting systems integrating multiple hydrologic and hydraulic models, and allowing forecasters to understand in real-time the impact of topographic changes to the floodplain.

}, author = {Ben Caddis and Carrie Dearnley} } @conference {bnh-4784, title = {Reducing bushfire risk to vulnerable community members through health and community services agencies {\textendash} business continuity approach}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Department of Fire and Emergency Services{\textquoteright} (DFES) At Risk Communities Program was developed as a result of findings from the 2009 Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission and the Keelty Inquiry into the 2011 Perth Hills Bushfires. Both the Royal Commission and Inquiry identified service gaps around people considered most vulnerable (being at risk) in a bushfire, and a need to address this gap. The At-Risk Communities program targets vulnerable members of the community who may be at greater risk of injury or death due to their inability to receive, understand or act on information during a bushfire emergency. It aims to address the gaps in service delivery by targeting the ageing population and those living with disabilities who live in their own homes that may be considered vulnerable due to the above. The program{\textquoteright}s purpose is to help at risk people to be better prepared for bushfire emergencies, by working with the Health and Community Services Agencies (Agencies) that provide a critical link to these community members, who often live in isolation.

}, author = {Suzanne Blyth} } @article {bnh-5198, title = {Report on fragility curves for limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Reinforced concrete buildings make up the majority of Australian building stocks.\ Structural elements of these buildings are often designed with limited to\ nonductile detailing. With a very low building replacement rate many of the\ Australian buildings are vulnerable to major earthquakes and pose significant risk\ to lives, properties and economic activities.

"Cost-effective mitigation strategies for building-related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright} under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative\ Research Centre (BNHCRC) aims to develop knowledge to facilitate evidencebased\ informed\ decision\ making\ in\ relation\ to\ the\ need\ for\ seismic\ retrofitting,\ revision\ of codified design requirement, and insurance policy. Seismic\ vulnerability assessment is an essential component in the project.\ 

This report presents sets of fragility curves that have been developed for two types of reinforced concrete buildings, buildings that are mainly supported by shear or core walls and buildings that are supported by walls and moment resisting frames. The seismic assessment frameworks, the approach for selection of ground motions and the development of archetype building models will be discussed. The fragility curves for low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings for both types of limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings will be presented in the forms of PGV, MMI and RSDmax as intensity measures.

}, issn = {433}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @conference {bnh-4739, title = {Research proceedings from the 2018 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC annual conference 2017}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The full research proceedings\ from the 2018 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference, held in Perth from 5 - 8 September. The document contains two sections. Section one is peer reviewed, full conference papers. Section two is non-peer reviewed extended abstracts.

}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-5040, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events at the coast: final project report}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

}, issn = {424}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-5166, title = {The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {50}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {1533-1557}, chapter = {1533}, abstract = {

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994{\textendash}2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3704-z}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3704-z}, author = {Mortiz Wandres and Charitha Pattiaratchi and Yasha Hetzel and E.M.S Wijeratne} } @conference {bnh-4975, title = {Responses to the Lombok earthquake, 2018 {\textendash} Rapid assessment study}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The recent earthquake that occurred in Lombok in August, 2018 presented an opportunity to study the responses of those affected in the immediate aftermath of the event. We find that tourists caught up in disasters are uniquely vulnerable. Few followed the encouraged actions of what to do in the event of an earthquake and were largely reliant on local residents and tourist operators for advice in the immediate aftermath. This article summarises the earthquake, how people responded and provides some reflections for policy makers.

}, author = {Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Andrew Gissing and Ashley Avci} } @article {bnh-5204, title = {Retrofitting costs for URM buildings}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, issn = {440}, author = {Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik} } @conference {bnh-4772, title = {Risk modelling as a tool to support local government emergency management}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Due to our growing exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is increasingly important for local government to have tools to better understand natural hazard risk and enable effective emergency management. One such tool is risk modelling, an innovative way for local government to assess, prioritize, communicate and manage its natural hazard risks. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 reflects the importance of risk modelling, where it calls for the development, application and strengthening of models for disaster risk management at the global and regional level. A variety of natural hazard risk modelling tools have been developed, which are increasingly used by government and private organizations. However, to date little research has gone into how effective risk modelling is as a tool to support local government emergency management. This presentation shares the results from recent research on understanding the perceptions that local government emergency managers have on the value of risk modelling tools. While emergency managers see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication, decision-making, planning and emergency response purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform emergency management policy and procedure.

}, author = {Miles Crawford} } @article {bnh-4556, title = {Risk modelling as a tool to support natural hazard risk management in New Zealand local government}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {28}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {610}, abstract = {

Due to New Zealand{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is important for local government to have tools that enable effective use of its natural hazard risk information. This paper explores the use of risk modelling as a tool that can support local government to better understand, manage, and communicate natural hazard risk. Focus group sessions were held with\ emergency management\ and other natural hazard practitioners in councils across New Zealand to understand their perceptions on the value of risk modelling tools, particularly {\textquoteleft}RiskScape{\textquoteright}. While practitioners see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication,\ decision making, planning and\ emergency response\ purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. Underlying these challenges is the recognition that while risk modelling can help span the science-policy interface, it is the problems with this interface that slow its development. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform natural hazard policy and procedure.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Local government, Natural hazard risk management, Risk modelling, RiskScape, Science-policy, Tsunami.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300529}, author = {Miles Crawford and David Johnston and K Crowley and W S A Saunders and S H Potter} } @article {bnh-5033, title = {Sampling and data analysis of field sites in NSW}, number = {419}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Fuel reduction burning (FRB) is used as a risk mitigation strategy for unplanned fires by altering fuel loads and changing fire behaviour. This involves temporary removal of accumulated fuels of the near-surface and surface fuel layers (Fernandes and Herminio 2003). As the main intention of FRB is to reduce the risk to life and property, associated environmental impacts are often overlooked (Sohngen and Haynes 1997; Gharun et al. 2017a). Fire has a major role in altering biodiversity, carbon and hydrological balances, and can be the cause of soil erosion. As such, changes due to disturbance caused by FRB need to be investigated, and, where practical, integrated into management operations (Gharun et al. 2017a). As planning by fire agencies becomes more sophisticated and accountable, environmental management objectives for FRB need to consider maintenance of high-quality water sources, reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and conservation of biodiversity.

}, author = {Bell, Tina and Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-4687, title = {Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazard scenario planning for northern Australia annual project report part two: managing flammable high biomass grassy weeds}, number = {366}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

High biomass, introduced grasses are invading savanna ecosystems across northern Australia. At high densities, they alter fire behavior and fire regimes. The Managing flammable high biomass grassy weeds activity is a subcomponent of the Savanna fire management and bushfire \& natural hazards scenario planning for northern Australia project. Commencing in July 2016, the project aims to assess change that occurs following invasion by high biomass grasses. We determined a list of priority high-biomass grass species for more detailed assessment based on their current distribution and predicted area suitable for establishment. The impact on fire regimes following invasion of these species will be determined by their fuel characteristics. We have therefore commenced field and laboratory work quantifying changes in fuel flammability. Samples of a range of species have been collected in the NT and QLD for flammability analysis. Characterising patterns of fuel curing has commenced, and shown that, for example, gamba grass has much higher (55\% higher) moisture content and lower curing than native grasses, but can sustain higher intensity fires due to other flammability characteristics. The impact of the more intense fires is of high relevance for stakeholders aiming to quantify risk and invest in mitigation efforts. Therefore, the project has commenced collation of data on the social, economic and environmental consequences of invasion, and undertaken extensive stakeholder engagement activities in northern Australia.

}, issn = {366}, author = {Setterfield, SA and Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5268, title = {Seismic assessment of reinforced concrete buildings in Australia including the response of gravity frames}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over recent years there has been a growing need to assess the seismic performance of potentially vulnerable buildings in Australia in order to make informed risk mitigation decisions. The aim of this study has been to assess the seismic performance of in-situ reinforced concrete (RC) buildings under 10-storeys high and constructed prior to 1995. This class of buildings has been identified to be particularly vulnerable to earthquakes due to the relatively low natural periods of buildings in this height range, and lack of consideration given to seismic design and detailing. The buildings assessed have core walls as the lateral load resisting system, also referred to as the primary system, and perimeter moment resisting frames together with band-beam or flat-slab floor systems as the gravity load resisting system, also referred to as the secondary system. There have been concerns about the displacement compatibility between the primary and secondary system and the loss of axial load carrying capacity of the gravity system (resulting in the total collapse of the building) prior to or immediately after the primary system loses its lateral load carrying capacity. Therefore, the assessment of the buildings conducted in this study has involved the seismic performance of both the lateral load resisting system and the gravity load resisting system.

The assessment procedure adopted in this study has been in line with the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) assessment framework. The main outcome of the study has been the development of fragility curves, thus the three key stages of the PBEE assessment process have been undertaken, including: hazard analysis, structural analysis, and damage analysis.

The hazard analysis stage involved conducting a review of the seismic hazard models developed for Australia. The most recent models which have been proposed for the Australian earthquake loading standard, AS 1170.4, have resulted in significant reductions in hazard values in comparison to the current hazard model in AS 1170.4:2007. However, there has been a lack of consensus amongst researchers about the changes and hence the proposed models are still under development. Therefore, in this study the evaluation of the seismic performance of the buildings has been based on the current hazard model in AS 1170.4:2007.

Furthermore, a detailed study was conducted to investigate the validity of the method used in AS 1170.4:2007 for incorporating local site effects. The study demonstrated the importance of considering site period, rather than the average shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m, in understanding the seismic site response. Based on the findings, re-classification of the site classes in AS 1170.4:2007 were recommended, with an emphasis on site period as a key criteria in classifying soil/soft rock classes. A new systematic method was also proposed for obtaining the displacement response spectra. This method helps to significantly improve the prediction of displacement response in the short period range up to the second corner period at which maximum spectral displacement response occurs.

The structural analysis phase was conducted by developing archetypal buildings for assessment. An investigation was conducted to obtain the history of the design of RC buildings in Australia to provide an understanding of the existing building stock, including typical building configurations and design detailing. This was achieved by speaking to and corresponding with experienced practicing structural engineers and from reviewing older editions of the Australian concrete structures and loading standards. Based on the findings six archetypal buildings were designed. Three buildings heights were investigated; 2-, 5-, and 9-storeys, and for each building height two plan configurations were analysed; one with plan symmetry and the other with plan asymmetry.

The expected governing failure mechanisms of the building components were identified, including the core walls, beam-column joints, columns and beams. This was achieved by reviewing reconnaissance reports and experimental studies for buildings and building components with similar detailing to the archetypal buildings. In general, it was identified that the building components were vulnerable to brittle failures and experiencing significant strength and stiffness degradation after the peak capacity was reached. This is because the buildings which have been assessed have a poor quality of detailing; typically referred to as non-ductile or seismically non-conforming detailing in the literature.

In order to develop the 3-dimensional nonlinear models of the archetypal buildings a critical review of the existing state-of-the-art approach for modelling non-ductile RC building components in a macro-finite element modelling space was conducted. The modelling methods investigated included the incorporation of the inelastic response of beam-column joints, flexural response of members, bar-slip of longitudinal reinforcement bars, flexure-shear behaviour of members, and methods for modelling non-planar walls. The review revealed that there was a lack of consensus amongst researchers about the best method to model the various building components for the purpose of global analysis. Therefore, various modelling approaches were evaluated by examining their performance against three key criteria: accuracy, computational efficiency, and numerical stability and reliability. The accuracy of the various models was predominantly examined at a component level by comparing simulated results with experimental results. The computational efficiency, and the numerical stability and reliability of the various modelling approaches were examined based on running simulations at a component level and then at a system level where the approach was utilised in 2D and 3D nonlinear models. In general, it was evident that the two competing modelling approaches suitable for global analysis could be broadly characterised as the distributed plasticity and the lumped plasticity approaches. Based on the three key criteria, the lumped plasticity approach was selected to be the most suitable and reliable approach for global analysis of non-ductile buildings analysed up to the point of axial load failure of the building components.

Nonlinear dynamic time history analyses were conducted to obtain the seismic performance of the archetypal buildings. The ground motion records were selected such that they were characteristic of Australian earthquakes, they include a combination of: stochastically generated rock records, historical records, and simulated records on various site conditions. Damage analysis of the buildings was achieved by using the cloud analysis method to develop the probabilistic seismic demand model of the buildings at various performance levels. Careful consideration was given to selecting suitable intensity measure and accounting for various uncertainties to develop the fragility curves. Finally, the seismic performance of the buildings was evaluated by comparing the response obtained from fragility curves with respect to performance objectives. The results illustrated that the plan-asymmetric buildings and the 2-storey plan symmetric buildings were particularly vulnerable to exceeding the Life Safety limit state under a 500 year return period event and the Collapse Prevention limit state under a 2500 year return period event if located on soft sites.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/214753}, author = {Anita Amirsardari} } @article {bnh-4692, title = {Seismic retrofit of exterior RC beam-column joint using diagonal haunch}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {174}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the derivation of the key formulations for the implementation of a single diagonal haunch as well as the generalization of the formulations for all three systems: the non-retrofitted subassembly, the double haunch retrofitting system, and the single haunch retrofitting system. The formulations have then been validated by available experimental data for non-retrofitted subassembly and double haunch retrofitting system. Finally, the effectiveness of the single haunch retrofitting system is compared with that of the double haunch retrofitting system through a parametric study.

}, keywords = {Exterior beam-column joint, limited-ductile, RC frame, Seismic retrofit, Single diagonal haunch.}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029617328857}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5009, title = {Seismic retrofit of precast soft-storey building using diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing device: Numerical investigation}, journal = {Advances in Structural Engineering}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

A diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing device is proposed for seismic retrofitting of vulnerable building frame structure. Superelastic shape memory alloy bar is put in series with steel bars in the bracing. The device makes use of the loading plateau of superelastic shape memory alloy to limit the tensile force of diagonal bracing. A precast soft-storey building frame in Australia was selected for a case study. A numerical model of the frame was developed and validated with the results from full-scale pull-down field tests. Nonlinear time history analysis was then conducted to evaluate the seismic performance of the frame with different retrofitting strategies. The result shows that the diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing can reduce the displacement demand on the soft-storey frame. Meanwhile, the level of tensile force of steel-shape memory alloy bracing can be controlled by the force plateau of the shape memory alloy bar, which is recommended to be 20\% of the yielding force of the steel bar. The lower tensile force demand could alleviate the force demand at the associated support connections.

}, keywords = {diagonal bracing, retrofit, shape memory alloy, soft-storey building, superelastic}, doi = {10.1177/1369433218800939}, url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369433218800939}, author = {John Wilson and Hing-Ho Tsang and Xiaoxian Liu} } @article {bnh-5456, title = {Self-evacuation archetypes in Australian bushfire}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2019}, abstract = {

Australian householders respond to bushfire in diverse and complex ways according to their circumstances and characteristics. They tend not to simply make a binary decision to evacuate from or remain at their property, or simply to {\textquoteright}wait and see{\textquoteright} what happens before they decide. Seven self-evacuation archetypes displaying universally recognisable, fundamentally human characteristics were identified through cluster and discriminant function analysis of data from 457 householders who had recently experienced a bushfire.

These seven archetypes characterise the diverse attitudes and behaviour of typical groupings of householders faced with making a protective decision during a bushfire. The archetypes comprise those who deny a threat exists (Threat Denier), who do not believe that they are responsible for themselves (Responsibility Denier) or are unable to take responsibility for their safe evacuation (Dependent Evacuator). They include those who are determined to safely evacuate (Considered Evacuator), those who look to advice and guidance from their community (Community Guided) and those who make considerable efforts to remain but are concerned they lack the experience to do so successfully (Worried Waverers). Some, who are experienced with bushfire, self-reliant and well prepared are committed to remaining (Experienced Independents) but in unfavourable circumstances may evacuate. Bushfire safety policy and programs should not treat these householders as simply stereotypical {\textquoteright}evacuators{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteright}remainers{\textquoteright} but accommodate the diversity of these archetypes to effectively meet their educational and engagement needs.

}, keywords = {hazard, Personal safety, Public policy, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.10.016}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:46864}, author = {Ken Strahan and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-6629, title = {Shaping future catastrophic disasters}, number = {537}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study explores the influence of political, economic, environmental, social and technological factors on our changing riskscape and how these factors might influence the ability of communities to respond and recover from future catastrophic disasters. These factors are explored through a review of relevant literature and short interviews with emergency management leaders.

While there is wide uncertainty regarding future conditions that may shape disaster events, special consideration should be given to the increased risks posed by urban development in at-risk areas; the impact of climate change on the extreme weather events; system inter-connectedness and contagion risks; cyber-security; societal reliance on new technologies, and ageing infrastructure.

There are, however, opportunities to positively influence future risk profiles through the adoption of improved building codes and risk-informed land-use planning; urban renewal to enhance the resilience of existing development; climate change adaptation, especially in respect to the consequences of increased air temperatures and sea-level rise; by incorporating resilience considerations into infrastructure design; and the adoption of technological advances to better understand and manage risk.

}, keywords = {catastrophe, disaster, future}, issn = {537}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-5064, title = {Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat}, journal = {Fire Technology}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {30}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents{\textquoteright} behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies differ across the two regions: in North America mandatory evacuations are favored, in Australia most are advisory. Research from both regions indicates that following a wildfire evacuation warning some threatened residents will wish to remain on their property in order to protect it, many will delay evacuating, and some residents who are not on their property when an evacuation warning is issued may seek to return. Mandatory evacuation is likely to result in greater compliance, enforcement policies are also likely to be influential. Self-delayed evacuation is likely if warnings are not sufficiently informative: residents are likely to engage in information search rather than initiating evacuation actions. The wildfire warning and threat histories of a location may influence residents{\textquoteright} decisions and actions. The complexities of behavioral factors influencing residents{\textquoteright} actions following an evacuation warning pose challenges for wildfire evacuation modeling. Suggestions are offered for ways in which authorities might reduce the numbers of residents who delay evacuating following a wildfire warning.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, delay, Evacuation, human behavior, modeling, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8 }, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8}, author = {Jim McLennan and Barbara Ryan and Christopher Bearman and Keith Toh} } @article {bnh-5219, title = {Simulated wind load strength testing of entrance doors}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations following cyclonic events have shown failure of doors and windows as illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2. Failure of such elements leads to further damage to the building by allowing rain and wind to enter the house. In addition to water damage to contents and internals, this creates increased stress to the building envelope due to the increased internal pressure as illustrated in Figure 3, which can lead to further failure such as roof failure.

Small weaknesses can therefore lead to large failures.

The study {\textquotedblleft}Design of Potential Dominant Opening to Resist Cyclonic Winds{\textquotedblright} by Nicoline Thomson, David Henderson and John Ginger highlights the under design of a standard external door for cyclonic conditions. Following this study, additional tests were conducted, replacing the timber doorframe with a steel doorframe and assessing various types of doors and lock mechanisms under cyclonic conditions.

The aim of this test programme was to perform full-scale simulated wind load strength testing of these different configurations of entrance doors. The AS 4040.2 static and AS 4040.3 cyclic simulated wind load strength test regimes\ were used as guides to load the test doors.

}, issn = {450}, author = {Leblais, Alex and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-5218, title = {Simulated wind load strength testing of soffits}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations following cyclonic events have shown failure of soffit lining, including on contemporary buildings, as illustrated in Figure 2 to Figure 12. Failure of soffit lining can lead to further major damage to the building by allowing wind driven rain to enter the ceiling attic, causing the ceilings to collapse and further water damage. In addition to water damage to contents and internals, soffit lining failure creates increased stress to the building envelope due to the increased internal pressure caused by wind entering the roof cavity through the eaves, which can lead to further failure such as roof failure.

Small weaknesses can therefore lead to large failures.

This report uses results, and summarises parts, of the thesis {\textquotedblleft}Design of soffits and eaves to resist wind loads in cyclonic regions{\textquotedblright} by Lalin Chhoeuk, in particular the mechanical assessment of various combinations of soffit lining to batten connections to evaluate their suitability for use in cyclonic regions.

The aim of this test programme was to perform full-scale simulated wind load strength testing of these different configurations of soffit lining to batten connections. The AS 4040.2 static simulated wind load strength test regimes was used as guides to load the test specimens.

The simulated wind load strength tests were conducted in an airbox testing facility located at the Cyclone Testing Station at James Cook University.

}, issn = {449}, author = {Leblais, Alex and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-4819, title = {Simulation of fuel bed ignition by wildland firebrands}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, abstract = {

A 3-D mathematical model of fuel bed (FB) ignition initiated by glowing firebrands originating during wildland fires is proposed. In order to test and verify the model, a series of experiments was conducted to determine the FB ignition time by a single pine bark and twig firebrand (Pinus sylvestris). Irrespective of the pine bark sample sizes and experimental conditions, the ignition of the FB was not observed. Conversely, pine twigs, under certain parameters, ignited the FB in the range of densities (60{\textendash}105 kg m-3) and with the airflow velocity of >=2 m s-1. The results of the mathematical modelling have shown that a single pine bark firebrand <=5 cm long with a temperature of T <= 1073 K does not ignite in the flaming mode the FB, and only the thermal energy of larger particles is sufficient for flaming ignition of the adjacent layers of the FB. The analysis of the results has shown that the firebrand length is a major factor in the initiation of ignition. Comparison of the calculated and observed FB ignition times by a single firebrand have shown that our modelling accords well with the experimental results.

}, keywords = {critical conditions, experiment, ignition, modelling, spotting.}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17083}, author = {O. V. Matvienko and D. P. Kasymov and Alex Filkov and O. I. Daneyko and D. A. Gorbatov} } @article {bnh-6046, title = {Simulation study of grass fire using a physics-based model: striving towards numerical rigour and the effect of grass height on the rate of spread}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = {800-814}, abstract = {

Grid-independent rate of spread results from a physics-based simulation are presented. Previously, such a numerical benchmark has been elusive owing to computational restrictions. The grid-converged results are used to systematically construct correlations between the rate of spread (RoS) and both wind speed and grass height, separately. The RoS obtained from the physics-based model is found to be linear with wind speed in the parameter range considered. When wind speed is varied, the physics-based model predicts faster RoS than the Mk III and V (McArthur) models (Noble\ et al.\ 1980) but slower than the CSIRO model (Cheney\ et al.\ 1998). When the grass height is varied keeping the bulk density constant, the fire front changes from a boundary layer flame mode to plume flame mode as the grass height increases. Once the fires are in plume mode, a higher grass height results in a larger heat release rate of the fire but a slower RoS.

}, keywords = {atmospheric boundary layer, operational model, Physics-based modelling, wildland fire, wind speed}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17126}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF17126}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland and William Mell} } @conference {bnh-5023, title = {Simulations of the effect of canopy density profile on sub-canopy wind speed profiles}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Rahul Wadhwani and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-5212, title = {Simulations of the effect of canopy density profile on sub-canopy wind speed profiles}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In computational simulations for weather prediction and fire simulation, forest canopies are often modelled as regions of aerodynamic drag. The magnitude of the drag term depends on the Leaf-Area Density (LAD) of the forest. For most forests LAD varies strongly with height; trees typically have more vegetation at the top of the canopy than the bottom. S. Dupont, and Y. Brunet [Influence of foliar density profile on canopy flow: a large-eddy simulation study. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 148(6), pp.976-990. 2008] simulated the flow through three very different profiles of LAD measured from three different Canadian forests.\  K. Moon, T.J. Duff, and K.G. Tolhurst [Sub-canopy forest winds: understanding wind profiles for fire behaviour simulation, Fire Safety Journal, 2016] recently measured the sub-canopy winds and LAD for seven different Australian forest types. Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) of flow through idealised forests are now computationally tractable and an extensive systematic study of different LAD profiles is possible. Here we assume that the LAD can be modelled by a Gaussian with two parameters representing the mean and variance of the distribution of LAD. The total vegetation density is forced to remain constant as the profile changes. We present preliminary simulation results showing how the mean and variance of LAD affects the sub-canopy wind velocity and we discuss a potential modelling approach for sub-canopy wind velocity.

}, issn = {442}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Rahul Wadhwani and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @conference {bnh-4766, title = {Simulations of the waroona fire with the access-fire coupled fire atmosphere model}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model has been coupled to a fire spread prediction model called ACCESS-Fire (Monash and Melbourne universities, publication in preparation). The ACCESS-Fire model presents a coupled fire-atmosphere modelling capability that is linked to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s operational weather forecasting system.\ 


The fire spread code in ACCESS-Fire is implemented by a level set solver and includes several fire spread models, including options for Rothermel, McArthur and CSIRO forest and grassland. It uses high-resolution topography and detailed fuel maps can be included as available. The sensible and latent heat energy fluxes from the fire are passed back to the atmospheric code through the land-surface scheme JULES. The fire model has been built into the ACCESS high-resolution nested suite using an advanced graphical user and scheduler interface.

ACCESS-Fire simulations have been run on the Waroona fire, which burnt over 68,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. During the first two days of the fire, there were four episodes of extreme fire behaviour. Two separate pyrocumulonimbus events developed and two evening ember storms occurred. The fire behaviour at the Waroona fire was driven by three dimensional fire-atmosphere interactions, and such processes can be examined using a coupled fire-atmosphere model.

This paper will describe key features of the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESSFire and present results from simulations of the Waroona fire. Features of the simulations include fire-modified winds in the environmental flow, dynamic plume effects near steep topography and exploration of pyrocumulonimbus processes.

}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5458, title = {Sleep and stress in on-call fire and emergency service workers}, volume = {PhD}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some aspects of sleep quantity and quality may be affected when on-call. The two main stress systems are largely unaffected by on-call work, with the exception of the cortisol awakening response. Two characteristics of the cortisol awakening response were blunted when on-call with a night callout compared to when off-call.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency services, Fire}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30110841}, author = {Sarah J Hall} } @article {bnh-4469, title = {Sleep in wildland firefighters: what do we know and why does it matter?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, chapter = {73}, abstract = {

Wildland firefighters perform physical work while being subjected to multiple stressors and adverse, volatile working environments for extended periods. Recent research has highlighted sleep as a significant and potentially modifiable factor impacting operational performance. The aim of this review was to (1) examine the existing literature on firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep quantity and quality during wildland firefighting operations; (2) synthesise the operational and environmental factors that impact on sleep during wildland firefighting; and (3) assess how sleep impacts aspects of firefighters{\textquoteright} health and safety, including mental and physical health, physical task performance, physical activity and cognitive performance. Firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep is restricted during wildfire deployments, particularly when shifts have early start times, are of long duration and when sleeping in temporary accommodation. Shortened sleep impairs cognitive but not physical performance under simulated wildfire conditions. The longer-term impacts of sleep restriction on physiological and mental health require further research. Work shifts should be structured, wherever possible, to provide regular and sufficient recovery opportunities (rest during and sleep between shifts), especially in dangerous working environments where fatigue-related errors have severe consequences. Fire agencies should implement strategies to improve and manage firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep and reduce any adverse impacts on firefighters{\textquoteright} work.{\textquoteleft}

}, keywords = {Health, performance, physical activity, planned burn, safety, sleep restriction, wildfire.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17109}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF17109}, author = {Grace Vincent and Brad Aisbett and Alexander Wolkow and Sarah M Jay and Nicola D. Ridgers} } @article {bnh-4738, title = {Southeast Australia Aboriginal fire forum}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report was written as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities{\textquoteright} research project (BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s HCIC). The HCIC research project focuses on collaborations between Aboriginal groups and natural hazards management agencies across southern Australia (see further Appendix 3). The BNHCRC is funded through a combination of Commonwealth research monies, as well as financial and in-kind contributions from government organisations, research institutions and nongovernment organisations. We were invited to attend the Forum and write this report by the Murumbung Rangers, with whom we have one of our case study relationships; nevertheless, this is an independent research report written with respect to the HCIC project{\textquoteright}s research priorities. The Forum facilitators, Coolamon Advisors, prepared an official Forum Report which summarises key findings and provides recommendations emerging from the speakers and participants over the first two days of the forum (Coolamon Advisors 2018). This research report includes excerpts from the Forum Report in textboxes. These reports are valuable for the work of key actors involved in cultural burning, whether they attended the forum or not.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, indigenous, mitigation, Natural hazards}, issn = {413}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5261, title = {State-of-the-art review and future research directions for FRP-to-masonry bond research: Test methods and techniques for extraction of bond-slip behaviour}, journal = {Construction and Building Materials}, volume = {20}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

The effectiveness of FRP retrofits is heavily reliant on the shear bond that can be developed between the FRP and masonry substrate, which has been the focus of experimental research for almost two decades. This paper collates and critically reviews previous experimental work on the shear bond between FRP composites and masonry substrates, identifying 1583 individual pull-tests across 56 published studies. Whilst the pool of existing data is significant in terms of number of tests, it encompasses a rather narrow range of substrate material, FRP material and retrofit configuration. Most notably, the majority of tests have been undertaken on clay brick substrates, carbon FRPs and externally-bonded retrofits. By contrast, testing of natural stone substrates and near-surface-mounted retrofits has been limited. Significantly, the review identifies considerable inconsistency in the test arrangements, instrumentation methods, and data processing techniques for extracting local bond-slip properties, which has undoubtedly hindered the development of a unified bond model and codifiable design rules. Methods of extracting bond-slip behaviour from test data are critically reviewed, and importantly it is shown through numerical examples that without adequate instrumentation it is not possible to reliably extract this behaviour from standard pull-tests. Finally, suggestions for adequate instrumentation and a framework for undertaking bond-slip behaviour extraction through inverse analysis are presented. Significantly, the experimental database compiled as part of this work-thought to be the largest of its kind to date{\textemdash}is made openly available as an accompanying Data in Brief article with the intent that it will facilitate development of bond-strength models for FRP bonded to masonry.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2018.06.103}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0950061818314934}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith and N.G.Burton and R.Seracino} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5260, title = {Statistical models for the location of lightning caused wildfire ignitions}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {258}, school = {The University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Lightning-caused wildfire is a significant concern for fire management agen\ cies worldwide. Unlike other ignition sources, lightning fires often occur in\ remote and inaccessible locations making detection and suppression particularly challenging. Furthermore, individual lightning storms result in a large\ number of fires clustered in space and time which can overwhelm suppression\ efforts. Victoria, Australia, is one of the most fire prone environments in the\ world and the increased frequency of large-scale landscape fires over the last\ decade is of particular concern to local wildfire management authorities.\ This thesis is concerned with modeling lightning-caused wildfire ignition
locations in Victoria. Such models could be used for predicting daily lightning\ caused ignition likelihood as well as simulating realistic point patterns for use\ in fire spread models for risk analyses.

The first half of this thesis looks at regression models. We review methods\ for the model selection, validation, approximation and interpretation of generalised additive models. A review of performance metrics, such as the AUC,\ shows the difficulties and subtleties involved in evaluating the predictive performance of models.\ We apply this theory to construct a non-linear logistic regression model\ for lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria. The model operates on a daily time\ scale, with a spatial resolution of 20 km and uses covariate data including fuel\ moisture indices, vegetation type, a lightning potential index and weather.\ We develop a simple method to deconstruct model output into contributions\ from each of the individual covariates, allowing predictions to be explained in\ terms of the weather conditions driving them. Using these ideas, we discuss\ ranking the relative {\textquoteleft}importance{\textquoteright} of covariates in the model, leading to an\ approximating model with similar performance to the full model.\ The second half of this thesis looks at point process models for lightning\ caused ignitions. We introduce general theory for point processes, focusing
on the inhomogeneous Poisson process, cluster processes and replicated point\ patterns. The K-function is a useful summary function for describing the\ spatial correlation point patterns and for fitting models. We present a method
for pooling multiple estimates of the K-function, such as those that arise when\ using replicated point patterns, intended to reduce bias.

We fit an inhomogeneous Poisson process model as well as a Thomas and\ Cauchy cluster process model to the Victorian lightning-caused ignition dataset. The cluster process models prove to have significantly better fit than the\ Poisson process model, but still struggle to reproduce the complex behaviour\ of the physical process.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/214157/Statistical\%20models\%20for\%20the\%20location\%20of\%20lightning-caused\%20wildfire\%20ignitions\%2C\%20Nicholas\%20Read.pdf?sequence=1\&isAllowed=y}, author = {Nicholas Read} } @article {bnh-5263, title = {Strategic adaptation pathway planning to manage sea-level rise and changing coastal flood risk}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {87}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {9}, chapter = {92}, abstract = {

Communities around the world are already committed to future sea-level rise. Long-term adaptation planning to manage associated coastal flood impacts is, however, challenged by uncertainty and contested stakeholder priorities. This study provides a proof of concept for a combined robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) approach in coastal flood risk management. The concept uses model-based support and largely open source tools to help local government plan coastal adaptation pathways. Key steps in the method are illustrated using a hypothetical case study in Australia. The study shows how scenario discovery can provide multi-dimensional descriptions of adaptation tipping points which may inform the development of technical signpost indicators. Transient scenarios uncovered limitations in seemingly robust adaptation policies, where historical path dependencies may constrain the rate of adaptation and the extent to which future coastal flood impacts can be successfully managed. Lived values have the potential to offer insights about non-material social trade-offs that residents may need to accept for the benefit of reduced flood risk, and could form a basis for defining socially-oriented signpost indicators. However, the nuances and subjectivity of lived values means that ongoing engagement with residents is essential as part of a combined RDM and DAPP approach to preserve the communities{\textquoteright} way of life. The learnings from this hypothetical case study suggest that testing in a real world participatory setting could be valuable in further developing a combined RDM and DAPP approach to plan adaptation pathways and manage future coastal flood risk.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118303678}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6714, title = {The structural response and progressive failure of batten to rafter connections under wind loads}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, school = {James Cook University}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Batten to rafter connections in light framed timber housing are vulnerable to wind\ loading and failures of these connections are one of the more common failure modes\ seen in post windstorm damage surveys. Such failures often occur in a progressive or\ cascading manner resulting in the loss of a large section of the building envelope.\ These progressive failures of batten to rafter connections are a complex process\ influenced by the pressure fluctuations on the roof surface, the response of individual\ connections and the behaviour of the structural system as a whole.

This study presents a method of examining load redistribution and progressive failure\ behaviour of batten to rafter connections in light framed structures. Nonlinear time\ history analysis was performed using a finite element model using fluctuating\ pressures determined from a wind tunnel study and connection properties determined\ from laboratory testing of connections under dynamic loads.

Flow separation and building-induced turbulence cause intermittent {\textquoteleft}peak-events{\textquoteright}\ where negative pressures on the roof surface are especially high. These {\textquoteright}peak-events{\textquoteright}\ can move across the roof causing high loads occurring at different connections with\ slight lead or lag times. Damage to connections occur during the {\textquoteright}peak events{\textquoteright} as nails\ are incrementally withdrawn. Loads are redistributed and load paths change during\ nail slips, causing damage to spread from an initial location. Load redistribution\ continues until a few connections fail completely, upon which a cascading failure\ occurs where almost all connections on the roof fail in rapid succession.

As an application of this research, the analyses performed were used to assess the fragility of batten-rafter failures, and the most vulnerable parts of the roof identified. Cost effective retrofitting measures can be justified and designed with this\ information.

}, keywords = {batten to rafter, Correlation of loads, Light framed structures, Low-rise buildings, progressive failures, wind engineering, wind loads, Wind tunnel study}, url = {https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/62277/}, author = {Korah Parackal} } @article {bnh-4404, title = {Surviving bushfire: the role of shelters and sheltering practices during the Black Saturday bushfires}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {81}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {86-94}, chapter = {86}, abstract = {

The decision of whether to leave or stay and defend is a well communicated public safety policy for those at risk from bushfire in Australia. Advice relating to sheltering practices during bushfire is less developed. This paper presents findings from a study of sheltering practices during the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. The study examined the circumstances and challenges experienced by residents when sheltering and/or exiting houses, sheds, and personal bunkers. The analysis considered a number of factors including human behaviour and decision making, house design and construction, the surrounding landscape and fire behaviour.

The results show the need for contingency planning and the need for active sheltering, involving regular monitoring of conditions inside and outside the shelter and actions to protect the shelter and its occupants. Also discussed is the tenability and location of the shelters and key questions around how bushfire-related building controls can improve the predictability of shelter failure, reduce the rate of shelter tenability loss and facilitate egress. This research highlights the need for enhanced community engagement and education to encourage residents to plan and prepare for active sheltering.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.12.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117309085}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Justin Leonard and Kimberley Opie} } @conference {bnh-4782, title = {A systematic approach to embedding safety, well-being and risk management when responding to interstate and international deployments}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The State of Victoria is a signatory to a variety of mutual aid arrangements to support partner agencies both interstate and internationally, during times of emergency.
The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Parks Victoria, Melbourne Water, and VicForests, as Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMVic), contribute to an overall Victorian deployment group when requests are made.
Notwithstanding, DELWP, and its FFMVic partners, has legislative obligations to ensure, as far as is reasonably practicable, the health and safety of our workforce including whilst deployed interstate and internationally under the control of partner agencies.
Working in strange landscapes with different people, systems, practices and equipment present a range of heightened risks for FFMVic personnel. Additionally, deployments frequently transpire when the requesting state / country has been managing protracted and large-scale events associated with widespread natural disasters and impacts on local communities.
Sound and comprehensive deployment planning and processes are the foundations to begin to mitigate those increased risks. Additionally, it has been recognised that planning for the wellbeing and safety of our staff extends well beyond the deployment window.
High level systems for managing emergencies fall under the Australasian Interservice Incident Management System (AIIMS). This system is nationally recognised and relatively consistent across Australia.
Yet, for on-ground management, control agencies have agency-specific safety systems, operational protocols, plant, equipment and tactics. These are best reviewed in advance of a specific deployment request to ensure that they are understood and are of an acceptable standard. If FFMVic believe them to be insufficient, additional mitigations and controls may need to be considered to ensure FFMVic staff are deployed into a safe workplace.
This paper presents a risk based approach and methodology to comparing partner agencies{\textquoteright} safety systems. FFMVic has already carried out comparisons with a range of partner agencies and high-level learnings from these reviews will be presented.

}, author = {Julian Smith and Graeme Dudley and Andrew Stanios and David Sayce and Andrew Collins} } @conference {bnh-4774, title = {A systematic exploration of the potential for bushfire risk mitigation with prescribed burning}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Fire regimes vary widely across Australian ecosystems as a function of climate, fuel, terrain and ignition variations. Fundamentally such variation will not only shape the way that prescribed burning can reduce risk to human and environmental assets but also the scope for effective treatment. While many agencies are moving toward planning systems based on risk assessment, knowledge of the best way to use prescribed fire to reduce risk to key values is generally lacking. The BNHCRC Project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for prescribed burning{\textquotedblright}, combines simulation and empirical approaches to improve our understanding of how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Here, we present the modelling framework and key results for two landscapes, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. We run a large number of simulations using the PHOENIX RapidFire model, investigating the interaction between fuel treatment and location under various weather scenarios. Key outputs for risk assessment include area burnt, house loss, life loss, roads and powerlines damaged, environmental cost and economic cost. Across both case study landscapes, greater levels of prescribed burning tend to result in reduced wildfire impacts on all risks. However, there is considerable variation in the rate of reduction in risk, including the amount of treatment required to achieve key targets. Further, the particular combination of weather factors underpinning given fire weather conditions (e.g. temperature vs wind driven) can substantially impact the overall level of risk, as well as the response to prescribed burning.\ 

}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-4801, title = {Teacher-facilitated child-centered disaster resilience education program: a study in Bangladesh}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, author = {Mayeda Rashid and Kevin Ronan and JC Gaillard} } @article {bnh-7976, title = {Towards operational SAR-based flood mapping using neuro-fuzzy texture-based approaches}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {215}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, pages = {313-329}, abstract = {

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are currently the most reliable resource for flood monitoring, though still subject to various uncertainties, which can be objectively represented with probabilistic flood maps. Moreover, the growing number of SAR satellites has increased the likelihood of observing a flood event from space through at least a single SAR image, but generalized methods for flood classification independent of sensor characteristics need to be developed, to fully utilize these images for disaster management. Consequently, a neuro-fuzzy flood mapping technique is proposed for texture-enhanced single SAR images. Accordingly, any SAR image is first processed to generate second-order statistical textures, which are subsequently optimized using a dimensionality reduction technique. The flood and non-flood classes are then modelled within a fuzzy inference system using Gaussian curves. Parameterization is achieved by training a neural network on the image through user-defined polygons. The results of the optimized texture-based neuro-fuzzy classification were compared against the performance of the SAR image alone and that of SAR enhanced with randomly selected texture features. This approach was tested for a COSMO-SkyMed SAR image at two validation sites, for which high resolution aerial photographs were available. An overall accuracy assessment using reliability diagrams demonstrated a reduction of 54.2\% in the Weighted Root Mean Squared Error (WRMSE) values compared to the stand-alone use of SAR. WRMSE values estimated for the proposed method varied from 0.027 to 0.196. A fuzzy validation exercise was also proposed to account for the uncertainty in manual flood identification from aerial photography, resulting in fuzzy spatial similarity values ranging from 0.67 to 0.92, with higher values representing better performance. Results suggest that the proposed approach has demonstrated potential to improve operational SAR-based flood mapping.

}, keywords = {ANFIS, COSMO-SkyMed, Flood extent, Flood mapping, GLCM, Neuro-fuzzy classification, SAR, Texture optimization}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.06.019}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425718302979?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Antara Dasgupta and Stefania Grimaldi and RAAJ Ramsankaran and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @conference {bnh-4787, title = {Transformative culture of disaster risk management as an enabler to resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) reviewed international disaster risk methodology with the view to developing a fit for purpose application that could be applied at the local as well as State level and would literally inform risk-based planning. The review focused on the three international tenants of disaster risk management: avoiding the creation of new risk; reducing existing risk; and managing residual risk. This review also specifically examined vulnerability assessment, determining residual risk and prioritisation for planning across the three levels of government that comprise Queensland{\textquoteright}s Disaster Management Arrangements.

}, author = {John Rolfe} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6633, title = {Understanding Wildfire Patterns in the South-Eastern Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Wildfires affect ecological processes, threaten human lives and cause economic losses. Understanding of fire patterns is required to better support the planning of sustainable fire management and risk reduction activities. Fire occurrence and fire size are two essential fire pattern components that describe the distribution of fires and the impacts of fires on landscapes and ecosystems. They vary substantially within and between regions due to variation in weather, fuel, topography and ignition sources. In this thesis, remotely sensed and administrative records as well as Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models have been used to understand fire occurrence patterns in the south-eastern part of Australia, as well as to obtain knowledge on the patterns of fire occurrence and fire size in the inland semi-arid riverine area.The results suggest that in the south-eastern Australia, wildfires are more likely to occur in mountainous areas, forests, savannas, and in areas with high vegetation coverage and near human infrastructures, while they are less likely to occur on grasslands and shrublands. Environmental variables are strong individual predictors while anthropogenic variables contribute more to the final model. Fire-ignition drivers and their effects vary across ecoregions. There are non-linear relationships between the probability of fire ignition and some of its drivers e.g. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.This study also reveals that on the NSW side of the Riverina bioregion, human-caused fires mostly occur in spring and summer while natural fires are clustered in summer. Forested wetlands and dry lands experience summer and spring-summer fire regime, respectively. Fire probabilities are higher in forested wetlands than in dry lands and in areas with intermediate inundation frequencies. Weather, fuel and ignition sources are comparably important in regulating human-caused ignitions, while weather contributes more than fuel in driving natural ignitions. Larger-size Fires that burned Entirely in forested Wetlands (FEW) are associated with higher ambient rainfall conditions of the 6th, 13-14th and 17-18th months before fires. Fire danger index is more powerful than other ambient weather factors in explaining the FEW size. The contributing and the most effective factors become different when fires burned in dry lands are incorporated.

}, keywords = {fire occurrence patterns, modelling, risk reduction, wildfires}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?vid=UNSWORKS\&docid=unsworks_51121\&context=L}, author = {Yang, Zhang} } @article {bnh-5160, title = {Unified models for post-peak failure drifts of normal- and high-strength RC columns}, journal = {Magazine of Concrete Research}, volume = {70}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = {1101}, chapter = {1081}, abstract = {

Displacement-based design of reinforced-concrete (RC) columns requires reliable estimation of the drift capacity beyond the elastic range. Although many post-peak drift models exist for normal-strength RC (NSRC) columns, very limited work has been done in this area on high-strength RC (HSRC) columns. This paper evaluates the capability of existing drift models to predict post-peak drift capacity of both NSRC and HSRC columns. A comparative study is conducted using a comprehensive database of 190 RC columns (79 HSRC and 111 NSRC) from past experimental studies. The results of the comparative study indicate that most of the existing drift models overestimate post-peak drift capacity of HSRC columns, primarily because the influence of concrete strength has been ignored. This paper also proposes a unified set of empirical drift models that have a unique ability to predict post-peak drift capacity of lightly to moderately reinforced NSRC as well as HSRC columns. The new models can serve as tools for structural design engineers to estimate drift capacity of RC columns at an early design stage. Moreover, the models can assess the drift performance of RC columns in existing buildings and hence can also aid in decision-making regarding the need for retrofitting.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1680/jmacr.17.00375}, url = {https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/10.1680/jmacr.17.00375}, author = {Saim Raza and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson} } @inbook {bnh-6327, title = {Urban Water Management Issues and Challenges After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Recovery: Lessons Learned from Banda Aceh City, Indonesia}, booktitle = {Urban Drought}, year = {2018}, pages = {399-412}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Banda Aceh city faced an urban water problem after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami devastated and damaged most of the city. Over 60\% of the city area was destroyed, including the entire loss of some areas of land and massive impacts on infrastructure. Water supply infrastructure in particular was badly hit, with only 20\% of the clean water available immediately following the event. Contamination of the groundwater by seawater was a crucial factor as the tainted seawater disrupted the clean water balance, which in turn damaged the facilities of the local public water utility company (Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum, PDAM). This loss of capacity came at a critical time, with a large number of disaster victims having a pressing need for water, for crucial hygiene as well as consumption. The reconstruction and rehabilitation phases of the disaster recovery sought to resolve the water resource problem for Banda Aceh citizens, with the restoration of PDAM becoming a top priority. This chapter highlights the urban water management issues and challenges of this situation and the problem of providing the clean water to Banda Aceh{\textquoteright}s citizens following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

}, keywords = {Banda Aceh urban water management, Clean water recovery, The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8947-3_23}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-8947-3_23}, author = {Alfi Rahman and Shimpei Iwasaki and Sutton, S and Aiko Sakurai} } @article {bnh-5210, title = {Urbanisation pressures and flood risk: Gawler River catchment and regional development}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Adelaide is built on a natural floodplain and as such is at constant threat of\ inundation from flood waters. The risk from flooding is a significant threat to\ South Australia, with it being the State{\textquoteright}s most costly natural hazard. In 2017 the\ State{\textquoteright}s average annual damages from flooding were approximated at $32\ million (Burns et al., 2017). It is also estimated that 8,500 properties are\ vulnerable to a 1-in-100-year event (as of 2010).

Flood risk is a complex interaction between many dynamic and interrelated\ processes, and can be considered as the combination of the flood hazard itself\ (its depth, extent, and velocity can all be considered), along with the assets\ and values exposed to the hazard and the vulnerabilities of these. This can be\ considered as the {\textquoteleft}risk triangle{\textquoteright} (Crichton, 1999).\ Each of these factors is also subject to change with time. Flood hazard is\ impacted by climate change via various mechanisms including changing\ intensity and frequency of rainfall events, along with impacts on vegetation\ and antecedent moisture (van Aalst, 2006; Alfieri et al., 2015). The exposure and\ vulnerability of the region is also changing with increased economic\ productivity and residential demands for land, along with different building\ codes and personal resilience (Koks et al., 2015; Mazzorana et al., 2012).

There are also interactions between the components of flood risk such as the\ impact of urbanisation in a floodplain {\textendash} increasing the number of exposed\ assets and increasing runoff, along with new developments and changing\ building codes influencing the vulnerability of buildings in a floodplain. This\ report will specifically highlight the interaction between new development in a\ region and its flood risk in the Gawler River floodplain.

As exposure increases driven by the need to meet economic and population\ demands for land, catchments become increasingly urbanised and hence\ impermeable. This reduces the ability for the landscape to manage the risk of\ pluvial flooding, as natural surfaces are replaced with more impermeable\ surfaces (like concrete or asphalt) leading to increased runoff.

This report will look at the probability of urbanisation in the Gawler River\ floodplain in comparison to areas subject to inundation and of high flood\ hazard.

To achieve this the Metronamica land use model (www.metronamica.nl) was\ applied to the region and calibrated to incorporate the local context and\ conditions appropriately. This model was then used to consider scenarios for the
region{\textquoteright}s growth (economic and population) to 2050 to consider the location\ and likelihood of urbanisation and its relationship to flood hazard.

This is done to highlight the value of considering changes in urbanisation and flood risk, however it should be noted this modelling is performed as proof-of-concept and should not be used for any planning or investment decision.

}, issn = {434}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-4584, title = {Using a worldview lens to examine complex policy issues: a historical review of bushfire management in the South West of Australia}, journal = {The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

The scale and intensity of bushfire activity in Australia is likely to increase as a result of climate change. Effective bushfire management policy measures are therefore essential to minimise the interrelated social, environmental and economic impacts of fire in the landscape. This paper presents a historical review of bushfire management in the South West of Australia (SW): a bushfire prone and biodiverse region. Using a worldview framework to analyse key policy documents and literature, the paper demonstrates that the evolution of complex policy sectors such as bushfire management, is influenced not only by scientific and technical developments but also as a result of changing worldviews. Adapting the Integrative Worldview Framework (IWF), seven worldview categories that dominated particular periods of history in Australia are presented. These worldview categories are then used to examine the evolution of bushfire management practice, policy and institutional arrangements relevant to the SW. The argument presented herein is that a better understanding of worldviews and how they influence complex and contentious policy fields such as bushfire management, is useful for policy analysis, reflexive practice and research. The paper suggests an integrative worldview approach, which enables opportunities for exchanges and constructive conflict between stakeholders and agencies with diverse worldviews, could contribute to creating more sustainable bushfire management. Finally, it is argued that opportunities for Indigenous and Western worldview exchanges in the bushfire management sector, through collaborative knowledge partnerships could assist the sector in both management practice and policy formulation.

}, keywords = {Australia., bushfire management, governance, Policy, sustainability, worldviews.}, doi = {10.1080/13549839}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13549839.2018.1467390?scroll=top\&needAccess=true}, author = {Simone Ruane} } @conference {bnh-4901, title = {Utilising grassroots engagement to drive cultural change}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) has undergone significant change over recent years. This level of change within the department has proven challenging from a cultural perspective.\  In effect, QFES is an amalgam of cultures from three very different services, with staff identifying strongly with their service of origin.\  For many, the potential loss of cultural identity and the feeling of {\textquoteleft}constant change{\textquoteright} has been challenging to accept.

Given the extent of change, it has been imperative for QFES to better understand how its staff are managing through these changes.\  Since 2013, assessments have been undertaken into workplace climate through the annual Queensland Government Working for Queensland Employee Opinion Survey.\  To complement these, in 2015, the Commissioner{\textquoteright}s Future of QFES survey was also conducted to gauge elements of QFES{\textquoteright} culture.\  Both surveys provide valuable information on the workplace pre- and post-merger, however do not necessarily provide a full assessment.

}, author = {Joanne Robinson} } @article {bnh-8039, title = {Value Tool for Natural Hazards: Guidelines}, number = {361.2018}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The {\textquotedblleft}Value Tool for Natural Hazards{\textquotedblright} comprises of a Value Tool Database, which provides a collection of non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards, and these Value Tool Guidelines, which describe how to use the values collated in the Database. The purpose of the Value Tool is to provide an accessible list of non-market value estimates for policy makers to use in decision making about natural hazard management.

The non-market or intangible benefits and costs of natural hazards are large in many cases, and should be accounted for in prioritising investment in natural hazard mitigation. We recommend that non-market values should be considered in natural hazard decision making as follows:

The Guidelines provide an overview of non-market values and benefit transfer for natural hazard decision making as follows:\ 

The Value Tool Database and Guidelines provide guidance on how the non-market value estimates should be used, and the policy contexts under which they are best suited for use. We recognise that the non-market valuation literature is incomplete with respect to providing highly accurate value estimates for all of the value types that might be affected by a natural hazard (see Section 3). However, we advocate that the use of an approximate number is usually better than no number, when it comes to decision making. It is better to have some information about the intangible benefits of a decision, than to ignore them completely: the error, and decision bias, resulting from the latter is likely to be far greater than the error from using an inaccurate number.

Provided the policy maker is aware of the potential for this error, uses a conservative approach for transferring values, and undertakes appropriate sensitivity analysis in analyses that use those values, then the values can provide useful, quantitative information for decision making. As noted above, in some cases, where a value transfer is too unreliable, we don{\textquoteright}t recommend using the values in a quantitative analysis, but suggest using them in a qualitative manner to inform thinking about particular policies.

}, keywords = {guidelines, hazards, natural, tool, Value}, issn = {361}, author = {Abbie Rogers and Fiona L Gibson and Peter Boxall and Michael Burton and Jacob Hawkins and Robert Johnston and Marit Kragt and John Rolfe and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-4433, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = { Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {emergnecy mangement., recovery, resiliance, risk ownership}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/5025/ajem-33-01-17.pdf}, author = {Celeste Young} } @conference {bnh-4802, title = {Volunteering into the future {\textendash} disaster events, local governments \& communities}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

This century presents us with many environmental challenges and the various types of hazardous events can impact urban, rural and remote communities in different ways. In Australia, councils are the closest level of government to community and many are planning and trialing a range of options to better deal with future disaster events.

The paper reports on findings from RMIT University researchers{\textquoteright} first stage of a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project. The research looks at how the emergency management sector over the next decade can best enable the value of volunteering for communities before, during and after emergencies. It explores local governments{\textquoteright} experiences with volunteering around disaster recovery and their views about a preferred future for this volunteering. It describes some of the ways councils work together with community groups and volunteers both trained and those who come forth in response to a disaster, to enhance resilience and recovery.

The research considers ideas about the emergency management (EM) sector and the need to shift and draw upon different perspectives to involve different people to broaden approaches. Improving governance structures, particularly at the state level was considered essential for moving towards the preferred future. There is a need for on-going investment in the provision of a supportive and enabling infrastructure for volunteering such as state-wide data-bases. These can enable engagement, recruitment and preparation of volunteers from across regions to support local government and communities. Interviewees highlighted the need for reform in disaster funding for the recovery process as critical and the need for ratification between state and federal government so local governments and communities have confidence in the EM space. This paper will provide a picture of what the future might look like as local governments strive to adapt to the challenges of the 21st century.

}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5184, title = {Wave ensemble forecasts for tropical cyclones in the Australian region}, journal = {Ocean Dynamics}, volume = {68}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {603-625}, chapter = {603}, abstract = {

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4o) and regional (resolution 1/10o) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1145-9}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10236-018-1145-9}, author = {Stefan Zieger and Diana Greenslade and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5193, title = {What are the drivers of dangerous fires in Mediterranean France?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {155-163}, chapter = {155}, abstract = {

Wildfire containment is often very challenging for firefighters, especially for large and rapidly spreading fires where the risk of firefighter entrapment is high. However, the conditions leading to these {\textquoteleft}dangerous{\textquoteright} fires are poorly understood in Mediterranean Europe. Here, we analyse reports and interviews of firefighters over the last 40 years in four regions of south-eastern France and investigate the weather conditions that induce large fires, fast-growing fires and fires that are conducive to entrapment. We adopt a quantile regression model to test the effect of weather conditions across different fire sizes and growth rates. The results show that strong winds drive the largest fires everywhere except in Corsica, the southernmost region, where high temperature is the main driver. Strong winds also drive entrapments whereas high temperatures induce rapidly spreading fires. This emphasises that wind-driven fire is the dominant pattern of dangerous fires in France, but it reveals that large {\textquoteleft}convective{\textquoteright} fires can also present considerable danger. Beyond that, the Fire Weather Index appears to be a good predictor of large fires and fires conducive to entrapments. Identifying weather conditions that drive {\textquoteleft}dangerous{\textquoteright} wildfires will provide useful information for fire agencies to better prepare for adverse fire behaviours.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF17087}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF17087}, author = {Lahaye, S and Curt, T and Fr{\'e}javille, T and Jason J. Sharples and Paradis, L and H{\'e}ly, C} } @article {bnh-5016, title = {When joining is not enough: emergency services volunteers and the intention to remain}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {35}, abstract = {

Volunteer turnover is a continuous concern for emergency services organisations. Using a psychological contract perspective, this paper examines how meeting the initial expectations of volunteers when they join an emergency service is related to the volunteer{\textquoteright}s intention to remain with that service. A survey was undertaken by 539 emergency services volunteers in Western Australia after volunteering for about a year. The survey included questions about reasons why volunteers joined the service, activities they expected to undertake as a volunteer, their evaluation of the volunteering experiences in the first year and their intent to stay. Using Latent Class Analysis of their expectations, three types of volunteers were identified. These were {\textquoteleft}focused{\textquoteright} volunteers (having well-defined expectations), {\textquoteleft}lost{\textquoteright} volunteers (lacking clear expectations except for serving the community) and {\textquoteleft}overenthusiastic{\textquoteright} volunteers (expecting status, reputation and career progression among other things). The results showed that the focused volunteers had participated in more activities and had a higher intent to remain a volunteer. Having too few or too many expectations seems to have negative consequences. Therefore, emergency services organisations could strive to understand and shape volunteer expectations to match a new volunteer{\textquoteright}s experience by using better aligned recruitment practices.

}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/6099/ajem-201810-kragt-dunlop-gagne-holtrop-luksyte-volunteer-retention.pdf}, author = {Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte} } @article {bnh-4467, title = {Wind load fluctuations on roof batten to rafter/truss connections}, journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering \& Industrial Aerodynamics}, volume = {175}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, abstract = {

Batten to rafter connections in light framed housing can be vulnerable to progressive or cascading failures where a localised failure can cause the loss of a large section of the roof envelope. The synchrony of loads at neighbouring connections may affect the initiation of such failures. A 1/50 length scale wind tunnel model study was performed on a gable roof house to record spatial and temporal pressure fluctuations on the roof surface and data were studied to determine the flow separation mechanisms causing different loading patterns on batten to rafter connections. The cross correlation between load time histories was used to give a measure of synchrony between loads experienced at neighbouring connections and indicate the direction that fluctuations move across the roof. Orthogonal wind directions result in 2-dimensional flow separation that produce more synchronous loads at batten to rafter connections than cornering wind directions, where conical vortices produce high uplift forces on connections. The patterns of loading and their correlations give a means of identifying which parts of the roof and which approach wind directions may result in the initiation of a progressive failure of batten to rafter connections.

}, keywords = {Correlation of loads, Light framed structures, Low-rise buildings, Progressive failures., Wind tunnel study}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2018.01.032}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610517304506}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @conference {bnh-4799, title = {Working from the inside out to improve utilisation of research in decision making}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The most common model for research is still often one where research is produced largely by researchers and delivered to users in the form of data, reports and papers. However if research is to be used it requires the blending of two very different knowledge systems: those of research and practice. Their integration in a transdisciplinary research environment is absolutely necessary if research is to be usable and serve the implementation needs of practitioners and policy makers. Implementation of research in the field of natural hazards is complex because it is a systemic issue and requires a highly collaborative model; one where diverse parties work together to achieve common goals. This can be an uncomfortable space particularly for researchers because this process starts in a fundamentally different place. It requires researchers to develop understanding from inside end user contexts rather than develop knowledge from outside it. It is a process of matching the knowledge to the need and tailoring information so end users can use it. Communication is a key part of this and active listening and negotiation are crucial.\  The inside out methodology was developed in 2006 and has since been used to develop a number of practitioner frameworks including the Risk Ownership Framework for Policy and Practice. These frameworks integrate research into decision making systems through co-designing solutions that evaluate end users context, their decision making systems and the drivers that inform them. It is however not without its challenges. This paper outlines some of the key components that are part of this research model.\ 

}, author = {Celeste Young} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5390, title = {Acknowledging local sociality in disaster recovery: a longitudinal, qualitative study}, year = {2017}, school = {Macquarie University}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Formal recovery, reconstruction and risk reduction efforts put in place in response to major disaster events are designed to redevelop infrastructure and services for, and improve the longer-term safety of, the affected populations. However, these efforts often rely on top-down approaches that neglect the impact on and the presence of local people{\textquoteright}s everyday lives in and with their communities (local sociality). As a result, top-down recovery and reconstruction approaches may misjudge engagement with disaster-impacted communities. Existing and emerging power-relations tend to influence the aims and processes of the recovery and marginalise the voices of the affected populations, particularly the most vulnerable.

This thesis explores these issues in four case studies: the towns of St George and Grantham, in Queensland, Australia, both of which were severely impacted by flooding events between 2010 and 2012, and the Japanese towns of Koizumi and Namie, which sustained devastating damage from the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and in the case of Namie, contamination from the Fukushima nuclear reactor in 2011. This study identifies a critical coherence in the human, social and political issues and challenges across all study areas, despite differences in the country, physical attributes of the hazards, types of damage and responses. In particular, the commonality identified across four different cases illuminate the importance of local sociality that is highly valued by the disaster-impacted people but often overlooked or downplayed by others.

The adopted qualitative, longitudinal research approach using semi-structured interviews through multiple site visits captured and identified long-term impacts and transitions in each study area involving individuals, households, local community groups, support persons and organisations and government officials.

}, keywords = {Australia, community, development, disaster relief, Japan, recovery, resilience, Vulnerability}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1260629}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70138}, author = {Tetsuya Okada} } @article {bnh-4157, title = {Advances in the remote sensing of active fires: a review}, number = {336}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The increasing risk of wildfire resulting from climate change has demanded an increase in information to support mitigation, response and recovery activities by fire management agencies. Subsequently, there is a need for an ongoing review of currently available and on-the-horizon information and technology.

Fire has important national significance as Australia faces ongoing environmental issues including loss of biodiversity, increasing urbanisation into bushland environments and increasing risks of wildfire.\ Fire regimes are an integral part of the ecosystem processes of Australian forests and a prominent disturbance factor. It affects successional rates of ecosystems, species diversity, can increase habitat fragmentation and alter landscape functioning. At the same time, fire is an important tool in management for ecosystem health and is frequently used for fuel hazard reduction.

Remote sensing data can assist fire management at three stages relative to fire occurrence including (i) Before the fire (fuel hazard measures, time since last burn) to assist fire prevention or minimisation activities, (ii) During the fire (near real-time detection and location of active fire areas and (iii) After the fire (mapping and assessment of burned areas).\ Active fires can be detected using satellite data because fire fronts are very hot compared to the background landscape temperature, and emit large amounts of energy that can be potentially be observed by thermal sensors on board satellites or aeroplanes.\ 

This report focuses on passive satellite (or space-borne) sensing systems and is designed to provide the theory of active fire detection, and place experimental systems in the context of this theory. It examines previous\ sensing systems, their limitations and current information usage by fire management agencies.\ Whilst experimental satellite programs do not guarantee prolonged availability of data, it is\ important to understand and review capabilities to future proof our domestic fire management\ agencies to be ready for new data sources and information suites.

}, issn = {336}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Simon Mitchell and McConachie, F and Holland, C} } @article {bnh-3849, title = {Advancing values-based approaches to climate change adaptation: A case study from Australia}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {76}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {113-123}, chapter = {113}, abstract = {

Coastal flooding affects physical and social place attachments. Values-based approaches to climate change adaptation examine how risks to place attachments are distributed within and among communities, with a view to informing equitable adaptation policies. In this nascent body of research, divergent theoretical frameworks and empirical approaches to measuring social values are evolving. While some studies explore the things people value about their everyday lives generally{\textemdash}the lived values approach, others locate specific social and cultural values in geographic space{\textemdash}the landscape values mapping approach. This study aims to compare the explanatory value of these two approaches for understanding the social risks of sea-level rise, and appraise whether either or both approaches are likely to meet local adaptation planning needs. It does this by examining the potential social impacts of sea-level rise in Kingston Beach, Australia, informed by a mail-out survey of the community. The lived values approach identified that the natural environment, scenery, relaxed lifestyle and safety are highly important to local residents, while the landscape values mapping approach revealed that Kingston Main Beach is the most highly valued of eight coastal landscape units. Incorporating the landscape values mapping into the lived values cluster analysis revealed that while Kingston Main Beach is highly important for its recreational value to some members of the community, for others manmade features such as community halls or sports ovals may be of higher importance because they facilitate social interactions. There is potential to further integrate these two approaches to better inform adaptation policy about how lived and landscape values are distributed among communities, where they are located in space and whether they change over time. A deeper understanding of such assigned values can lead to improved engagement with coastal residents to inform adaptation policy now and into the future.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.06.014}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117302903?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Sonia Graham and Christopher J. White and Christopher Stephen Watson} } @article {bnh-4236, title = {An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {355}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Measuring and understanding the impacts of natural hazards in terms of the toll of human life and building damage is a fundamental first step to enabling efficient and strategic risk reduction. By taking a scientific approach to the collection and analysis of accurate information and intelligence, governments, agencies and the wider community are better positioned to reduce disaster risks.

Specifically, the project has provided a longitudinal analysis of the social and environmental circumstances that led to fatalities in order to examine trends over time in terms of exposure and vulnerability.\  These trends have been interpreted in the context of emerging issues, and how these issues might influence vulnerability and exposure trends in the future.\  The project has provided an analysis of building damage by hazard and state/territory due to natural hazards.

The outcomes of this project will inform a wide-range of emergency management and government end users to advise on and update policy, practice and resource allocation.\  Already it has been utilized by NSW and Victoria State Emergency Services to inform education campaigns.

}, issn = {355}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-3568, title = {An analysis of human fatalities from cyclones, earthquakes and severe storms in Australia}, number = {247}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report examines the socio-demographic and environmental circumstances surrounding fatalities from cyclones, earthquakes and severe storms (hail, gusts, lightning, rain and tornados). It is the second major milestone from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) funded project {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright}.

The foundation for this work is the use of the Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database PerilAUS, which contains historical data on the incidence (magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of natural hazard events in Australia. PerilAUS contains many of the names of the deceased which, during the course of this project, has enabled the collection of more detailed information on the circumstances of many of the fatalities from coronial inquest reports.

The data has been analysed to inform the understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths and how this information could best be utilised for emergency management policy and practice. This has included an examination of the data around the following themes: demographics, cause of death, location of the fatality and transport, activity and action prior to and at the time of death, capacity and awareness and, where possible, the severity of the event.

}, issn = {247}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Katharine Haynes and Deirdre Radford and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Robin van den Honert and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5162, title = {Analysis of rapid damage assessment data following severe windstorm events}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

The Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) and partners have conducted forensic damage assessments in Australia following severe windstorm events for over four decades. The information collected is used for building science research that provides the evidence base needed for improvements to building codes and development of damage mitigation solutions. The Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) operate Rapid Damage Assessment (RDA) teams in the aftermath of major disasters (e.g. cyclone and bushfire) to collect and disseminate information on extent of damage to buildings in impacted communities. These data enables focused and coordinated response in the immediate aftermath of an event and better planning for event recovery. This paper explores the use of QFES RDA datasets in analysing the damaging effects of severe windstorm events. Two case studies are discussed: a supercell that hit Brisbane on 27 November 2014 and Tropical Cyclone Debbie that made landfall along the northern Queensland coastline in March 2017. Where possible, damage data are combined with hazard information (dual-Doppler radar horizontal wind fields) and their relationship is investigated. The analysis demonstrates that RDA data are not only useful in response and recovery phases, but also have value for research aiming to better understand building failures and reduce damage in future events.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-21}, author = {Daniel Smith and Richard Krupar III and David Henderson and M. S. Mason} } @conference {bnh-6026, title = {Analytical Model for Seismic Retrofit of Concrete Beam-Column Joint using Diagonal Metallic Haunch}, booktitle = {World Congress on Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, year = {2017}, month = {01/09/2017}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Korea}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile concrete frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the key formulations and illustrates its effectiveness by investigating the changes in the shear demand at the joint through a case study.

}, keywords = {building, building disaster proof, construction, Emergency management, engineering, hazards, risk management}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Zabihi, Alireza and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5159, title = {Analytical modelling of podium interference on tower walls in buildings}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {18}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

In regions of low-to-moderate seismicity like Australia, a common form of building construction is the one featuring a podium structure that supports a tower with smaller floor plan. This building layout is particularly favoured in metropolitan regions as it can cater for a mix of commercial and residential functionalities. This paper investigates the undesirable effects of podium interferences on the shear demands on the structural walls at and above the interface zone. Shear force redistributions between the connected structural walls were found to be the direct consequence of the differential restraints imposed by the podium structure. The generation of in-plane strutting forces in the slabs and beams connecting the structural walls was also found to be proportional to the extent of the deformation incompatibility between the walls and columns above the podium level. An analytical model is proposed herein for estimating in-plane strutting forces in the connecting slabs (or beams). The model has been verified against results obtained from finite element analyses using 2D, and 3D, sub-assemblages of the building. Deficiencies in the conventional diaphragm modelling approaches have been highlighted, and optimal solutions are proposed.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2017.1396870}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2017.1396870?journalCode=tsen20}, author = {Mehair Yacoubian and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5097, title = {Animal ownership among vulnerable populations in regional South Australia: implications for natural disaster preparedness and resilience}, journal = {Journal of Public Health Management and Practice}, volume = {23}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {59-63}, chapter = {59}, abstract = {

Context:\ Few studies have examined the prevalence of\ animal ownership\ among populations likely to be at greater risk from disaster events within a\ bushfire\ context.

Objective:\ To investigate the proportion of vulnerable community members keeping animals and the types of animals kept, as well as perceived risk of harm to pets, and their inclusion in\ bushfire\ survival planning.

Design:\ Statewide anonymous online survey in 2014 of adult South Australian animal owners threatened by\ bushfire\ in January 2014. Respondents were asked about\ animal ownership, their\ bushfire\ risk perception, and household survival planning. Descriptive statistics are presented for 5 groups considered likely to contribute to increased risk of harm for households: linguistically diverse, older adults, families with young children, physically frail, and self-identifying disabled, as well as individuals with mental health considerations.

Setting:\ An opt-in purposively targeted sample of anonymous South Australians living in high fire-risk locations.

Participants:\ Adult South Australian animal owners threatened or directly impacted by\ bushfire\ events, including individuals matching 1 of the 5 vulnerable groups.

Main Outcome Measures:\ Self-reported details of\ animal ownership, perceived fire risk, survival planning, and\ vulnerability\ characteristics.

Results:\ Animal ownership\ was found to be more prevalent in these 5 populations than in the wider South Australian population. Perceived risk to pets was low to moderately low in these individuals. Variation was observed in the role of animals generally and pets specifically as motivators for preparing\ bushfire\ survival plans.

Conclusions:\ Emergency services and associated agencies need to consider how the unique needs of vulnerable populations that keep animals, and their potential differences in risk perception, relate to their\ bushfire\ survival planning and\ preparedness\ requirements.

}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000416}, url = {https://insights.ovid.com/crossref?an=00124784-201701000-00009}, author = {Kirrilly Thompson and Trigg, Josh and Bradley P Smith} } @article {bnh-5093, title = {Application of hybrid simulation for collapse assessment of post-earthquake CFRP-repaired RC columns}, journal = {ASCE Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {143}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, abstract = {

Hybrid simulation combines the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of computer simulations with the realism of experimental testing to provide a powerful platform for large-scale experimental investigation of the seismic response of structures through collapse. This paper presents applications of hybrid simulation for (1)\ tracing the seismic response of a limited-ductility reinforced-concrete (RC) column through collapse and (2)\ evaluating the capability of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) repair on rehabilitating the earthquake-damaged RC column to its initial collapse resistance capacity. A state-of-the-art hybrid testing facility, referred to as the multiaxis substructure testing (MAST) system, was used to simulate complex time-varying six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) boundary effects on the physical specimens using mixed load/deformation modes. Based on the experimental results, a comparative collapse risk assessment of the initial and repaired column was conducted, which illustrates the effectiveness of using CFRP repair to restore and improve the collapse resistance of earthquake-damaged RC columns.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001629}, url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29ST.1943-541X.0001629}, author = {Mojgen Hashemi and Al-Ogaidi, Y and Al-Mahaidi, R and Robin Kalfat and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-3379, title = {{\textquoteleft}Are we wasting our time?{\textquoteright}: bushfire practitioners and flammable futures in northern Australia}, journal = {Social \& Cultural Geography}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {1-23}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Humans are {\textquoteleft}fire creatures{\textquoteright} that have used fire for millennia to shape local environments to diverse purposes. Our capacity for combustion has also forced global climatic changes and rendered the planet increasingly flammable, creating the conditions for progressively higher impact bushfires now and into the future. Meanwhile, governments in fire-prone countries such as Australia have continued to allow settlements to be established (and re-established) in wildland{\textendash}urban interfaces. Like other {\textquoteleft}natural hazards{\textquoteright}, bushfire is thereby a social phenomenon bound up with human values, practices and decisions. But, while studies of the social dimensions of {\textquoteleft}natural hazards{\textquoteright} are steadily rising, this scholarship has rarely addressed natural hazard management practitioners directly, precisely those authorised and entrusted to intervene in the distribution of hazard probabilities and consequences. This paper seeks to help remediate this research gap, illustrating how cultural, ecological, economic and political factors thoroughly condition hazard management and modes of intervention. Drawing on a case study in the Northern Territory{\textquoteright}s Greater Darwin region, this paper suggests not only that examining such sociocultural realities provides new insights into hazards and their distribution, but also that attention to such issues is crucial to understanding our flammable future in the Anthropocene.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14649365.2017.1285423}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14649365.2017.1285423?scroll=top\&needAccess=true}, author = {Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5144, title = {Assessing ecological performance thresholds in fire-prone Kakadu National Park, northern Australia}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Contemporary fire regimes are recognized as a key threatening process for relatively immobile vertebrates and narrowly dispersing obligate seeder plant taxa in fire-prone Australian savannas. Here, we assess the efficacy of proposed ecological performance threshold metrics for evaluating the current state of fire management for biodiversity conservation outcomes in Australia{\textquoteright}s premier, and best publicly funded savanna reserve, Kakadu National Park. The assessment draws on available data describing Landsat-scale fire mapping over the period 1997{\textendash}2015, habitat mapping, and mostly modeled responses of vegetation and faunal attributes. Despite conceptual and technical issues associated with various proposed performance thresholds and mapping products, the assessment demonstrates significant challenges with the current state of the reserve{\textquoteright}s fire management program. For example, by the end of 2015 it was observed that just 6\% of woodland habitat in lowland and 23\% in upland situations had remained unburnt for longer than three years and 98\% of mapped fires in lowland and 87\% in upland habitats were \>1\ km2\ in extent. Of 14 assessed performance threshold metrics, two were within acceptable thresholds at the end of 2015, and none had improved materially over the decadal assessment period. Given substantial resources evidently required to deliver effective, seasonally intensive, fine-grained adaptive fire management for biodiversity conservation outcomes in fire-prone Australian savannas, we suggest that alternative resourcing opportunities through market-based savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement projects need to be explored.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1856}, url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecs2.1856}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Jay Evans and Andrew C. Edwards and Anthony Simms} } @article {bnh-4506, title = {Assessment of Displacement Demand for Earth Retaining Structures}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

Earth retaining walls and bridge abutments are part of the key infrastructure in support of a modern transportation system. Assessment of the structural safety of a retaining wall in seismic conditions is considered in this paper. Present work deals with systematic review of analytical modelling of seismic actions on retaining walls. Experimental investigation for finding displacement demand of scaled down retaining wall models has been discussed. A detailed experimental investigation has been recommended for ensuring the accuracy of the analytical modelling approach.

}, keywords = {abutment, displacement, performance, Retaining wall, seismic, similitude.}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/453-Rohit-Tiwari.pdf}, author = {Rohit Tiwari and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @conference {bnh-3879, title = {An assessment of the viability of prescribed burning as a management tool under a changing climate: a Tasmanian case study}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Fire danger is projected to increase across Tasmania under climate change, with the fire season starting earlier and lasting longer. Prescribed burning is currently the only effective method of managing bushfire risk at the landscape scale in Tasmania. It is generally carried out during autumn and spring, when weather conditions allow low intensity burns to be safely managed. We investigated the changing opportunities for prescribed burning in Tasmania in the near future (2021-2040) and towards the end of the century (2081-2100) under a high emissions scenario (SRES A2). We assessed monthly changes in the climate variables that determine when prescribed burning can be applied, including rainfall, temperature, fuel moisture and atmospheric stability. We found that in the future, weather conditions conducive to safe, low intensity burning may occur less frequently. Increased Drought Factor and Soil Dryness Index in spring and autumn, resulting from rising temperatures and reduced rainfall, may result in increased fuel availability. These trends become evident in the near future (2021-2040), followed by substantial changes by the end of the century (2081-2100). This suggests a significant reduction in the ability to safely conduct and contain prescribed burns in the coming decades. These findings have important consequences for the ability to manage bushfire risk using prescribed burning in the future. The timing and resourcing of prescribed burning may be affected, with a narrower window of suitable weather conditions for burning. Alternative methods to build resilience to bushfire risk may need to be considered.

}, author = {Harris, R. M. B. and Remenyi, T. and Paul Fox-Hughes and Love, P. and Phillips, H. E. and Bindoff, L. P.} } @conference {bnh-3914, title = {The Australian Flammability Monitoring System}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS) is the first, continental-scale prototype web explorer providing spatial information on current Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and landscape-scale fuel flammability derived from satellite observations. The satellite observations are converted into FMC using a radiative transfer modelling inversion approach. Evaluation of the FMC estimates using 408 observations at 35 locations around Australia shows similar accuracies (r2=0.60, RMSE=39\%) across the vegetation classes studied (grassland, shrubland and forest) to those derived elsewhere globally. Flammability estimates are calculated using logistic regression models relating fire occurrence to FMC. Separate prediction models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest, obtaining performance metrics (Area Under the Curve) of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively (where skillful predictions range between 0.5 and1). A web-based data explorer will be available to fire and land management agencies and any other interested parties in all states and territories. The AFMS can support a range of fire management activities such as prescribed burning and pre-positioning of firefighting resources and can inform the future National Fire Danger Rating System.

}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Xingwen Quan and Joel Rahman and Zac H. Dodds and Pablo Rozas} } @article {bnh-4215, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {326}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the Problem?

In 2010, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) adopted resilience as one of the key guiding principles for making the nation safer. The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (Australian Government 2011) outlines how Australia should aim to improve social and community resilience with the view that resilient communities are in a much better position to withstand adversity and to recover more quickly from extreme events. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 also uses resilience as a key concept and calls for a people centred, multi-hazard, multi-sectoral approach to disaster risk reduction. As such each tier of government, emergency services and related NGOs have a distinct need to be able assess and monitor the ability to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters as well as a clear baseline condition from which to measure progress.

Why is it Important?

Society has always been susceptible to extreme events. While the occurrence of these events generally cannot be prevented; the risks can often be minimised and the impacts on affected populations and property reduced. For people and communities, the capacity to cope with, adapt to, learn from, and where needed transform behaviour and social structures in response to an event and its aftermath all reduce the impact of the disaster and can broadly be considered resilience. Improving resilience and thereby reducing the effects of natural hazards has increasingly become a key goal of governments, organisations and communities within Australia and internationally.

How are we going to solve it?

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index project will produce a spatial representation of the current state of disaster resilience across Australia.\  The index will be composed of multiple levels of information that can be reported separately and represented as colour-coded maps where each point will have a corresponding set of information about natural hazard resilience. Spatially explicit capture of data will facilitate seamless integration of the project outcomes with other types of information. The index and indicators will also be drawn together as a State of Disaster Resilience Report which will interpret resilience at multiple levels and highlight hotspots of high and low elements of natural hazard resilience.

}, issn = {326}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and Phil Morley and James McGregor and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Graham Marshall} } @conference {bnh-3901, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: assessing Australia{\textquoteright}s disaster resilience at a national scale}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index (ANDRI) is Australia{\textquoteright}s first national-scale standardised snapshot of disaster resilience.\  Because of its national extent, the ANDRI takes a top-down approach using indicators derived from secondary data.\  The ANDRI has a hierarchical design based on coping and adaptive capacities representing the potential for disaster resilience in Australian communities.\  Coping capacity is the means by which people or organizations use available resources, skills and opportunities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster.\  Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation.\  Coping capacity is divided into themes of social character, economic capital, infrastructure and planning, emergency services, community capital and information and engagement.\  Adaptive capacity is divided into themes of governance, policy and leadership and social and community engagement.\  Indicators are collected to determine the status of each theme.\  This paper will present a preliminary assessment of the state of disaster resilience in Australia, and the spatial distribution of disaster resilience across Australia.\  We then outline the framing of the assessment outcomes as areas of strength and opportunities for enhancing the capacities for disaster resilience in Australian communities.\  The utilisation of the ANDRI into emergency management agency programs and tools will also be discussed.

}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Phil Morley and Sonya Glavac and James McGregor and Peter Hastings and Ian Reeve and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Graham Marshall} } @article {bnh-4238, title = {Bridging the divide between studies on disaster risk reduction education and child-centred disaster risk reduction: a critical review}, journal = {Children{\textquoteright}s Geographies}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

There has been a recent increase in the body of knowledge related to children and disasters. These studies converge into three main fields of research: the impact of disasters on children and their psychological recovery, the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) into the education sectors and children{\textquoteright}s participation in DRR. This article provides a literature review of the two latter fields of research where the focus is on reducing disaster losses and building resilience prior to a disaster. Overall, 48 studies are critically reviewed and compared in relation to the strengths and weaknesses of their aims, methods, locations of research, impact, and outcomes. The review identified a number of differences between the two fields and significant opportunities for linking the two approaches, sharing lessons and knowledge. Based on the review, recommendations for further research are outlined.

}, doi = {10.1080/14733285.2017.1358448}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14733285.2017.1358448?journalCode=cchg20}, author = {Avianto Amri and Katharine Haynes and Deanne Bird and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3514, title = {A Broad-Area Method for the Diurnal Characterisation of Upwelling Medium Wave Infrared Radiation}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {9}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {

Fire detection from satellite sensors relies on an accurate estimation of the unperturbed state of a target pixel, from which an anomaly can be isolated. Methods for estimating the radiation budget of a pixel without fire depend upon training data derived from the location{\textquoteright}s recent history of brightness temperature variation over the diurnal cycle, which can be vulnerable to cloud contamination and the effects of weather. This study proposes a new method that utilises the common solar budget found at a given latitude in conjunction with an area{\textquoteright}s local solar time to aggregate a broad-area training dataset, which can be used to model the expected diurnal temperature cycle of a location. This training data is then used in a temperature fitting process with the measured brightness temperatures in a pixel, and compared to pixel-derived training data and contextual methods of background temperature determination. Results of this study show similar accuracy between clear-sky medium wave infrared upwelling radiation and the diurnal temperature cycle estimation compared to previous methods, with demonstrable improvements in processing time and training data availability. This method can be used in conjunction with brightness temperature thresholds to provide a baseline for upwelling radiation, from which positive thermal anomalies such as fire can be isolated.

}, doi = {10.3390/rs9020167}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/9/2/167}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-3909, title = {Building an ARC in the mountains: a community-led initiative to build an animal-ready community (ARC) in the NSW Blue Mountains to provide a template for similar activities}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Responsibility for animals in emergencies lies with the owner. However, owners are often underprepared and have not planned for their animals, or themselves. This can lead to late evacuation, failure to evacuate, or risky acts trying to rescue, return to, or save animals. These situations can jeopardise public and responder safety and, as seen in several recent natural disaster events, loss of both human and animal lives. The loss of animals in disasters, often in extremely traumatic circumstances, can severely impede owner recovery, through loss of livelihoods, reductions in social capital, and enduring (disenfranchised) grief. Research in the United States has found that grief responses to loss of a pet can be equivalent to the loss of a sibling or family member (for example, Archer, 1997). Despite this evidence-base, there is still a tendency in emergency management to ignore or underestimate the significance of animal emergency management (AEM) as a legitimate area for mainstream consideration.

}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy and Jenny Bigelow} } @article {bnh-4245, title = {Building resilient communities - effective multi-channel communication during disasters: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {344}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia is exposed to a range of natural disasters including severe storm, fire, cyclone, flood, and to a lesser extent, earthquake and tsunami. These disasters have an estimated cost of $9 billion a year [4], alongside the more difficult to measure social impact on society and individuals{\textquoteright} wellbeing. Governments, authorities, and organisations dedicate significant resources to encourage communities to prepare for and respond to natural hazards. However, recent events, media attention, and ongoing academic research continue to highlight cases of non-compliance. Non-compliance can include an individual{\textquoteright}s refusal to evacuate when a voluntary or mandatory evacuation message is issued, evacuating when advised not to, and travelling through hazardous areas when advised not to, to name a few. The consequences of non-compliance during a natural hazard can include personal injury or loss of life, and damage to, or loss of property. Individuals who fail to comply with instructions issued during natural hazards significantly impede the emergency response because they divert resources to compliance-enforcement, and risk the lives of emergency service workers who may be required to assist them. The consequences of non-compliance drive the need to understand how to influence individual-level compliance in a natural hazard, through more effective communication.

This project adopts a multi-hazards approach to examine the effectiveness of response and recovery communication in communities (comprising individuals, groups, and businesses) affected by natural hazards. The core project objectives are two-fold:

  1. Develop methods to maximise the effectiveness of response and recovery messaging to the community during a range of natural hazard events.
  2. Promote both community and disaster agency understanding of the legal motivators for maximising engagement with emergency messages and instructions.

Achieving these objectives will enable the project to deliver evidence-based message content to guide operational and communication strategy, and improve community understanding, decision-making, and compliance during the emergency response and recovery phase of natural disasters.\ 

}, issn = {344}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sharon Christensen and Bill Duncan and Amanda Stickley and Paula Dootson} } @article {bnh-6663, title = {Business exposure information framework}, number = {542}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire and Natural Hazards are features of the Australian climate and landscape and the threats will continue (COAG, 2011). These hazards can have profound personal, social, economic and environmental impacts. The impacts of these disasters demand the need to advance the efforts of planning, preparation, response and recovery to improve community resilience. Disaster management is a collective responsibility of all levels of government, society, businesses and individuals. For disaster resilience, emergency management planning should consider risk and risk treatments across the built, economic, social and environmental assets (COAG, 2011). Exposure {\textquotedblleft}what is at risk{\textquotedblright} information is fundamental for assessing risk from natural hazards and therefore nationally consistent information is required for evidence based prioritising and targeting interventions. To address this, consistent methodologies and frameworks are required to enable information sharing and accurate interpretation.

In natural hazards and disasters decision making Exposure is a key component and constitutes people, buildings, infrastructure (transport, energy, communications and water), businesses, hazardous substances, primary and major industries. This report is an outcome of research funded by Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to develop an {\textquotedblleft}Australian Natural Hazards Business Exposure Information Framework{\textquotedblright}. The framework is aimed at supporting the development of nationally consistent and centralised business and economic exposure information to enable the decision making in disaster management to the evidence based. This research has reviewed the current literature and information providers; engaged end users and researchers for future requirements, and conducted a gap analysis.

The literature review has helped to understand the relevant practices and future trends at international, national, regional and local levels. In particular, the review highlighted the business and economic exposure data requirements to enable researchers to develop models for better impact analysis.

The project has conducted an on-line survey of existing exposure information capabilities in Australia to ascertain existing data and information capabilities for disaster response and recovery. Overall a lack of national consistency in existing data and information capabilities is a limiting factor in evidence based decision making.

The project also conducted a Stakeholder Engagement Workshop with an aim to identify the exposure information needs of researchers and other end users in Australia. The workshop provided an opportunity for thirty six participants representing decision makers, emergency managers, planners, researchers, asset managers and the insurance sector to outline their future requirements. The collective views of data managers, researchers and end users have informed the basis for exposure information\  requirements to develop a consistent, standardised exposure information framework that will support vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction and socio-economic impact analysis.

Information on some exposure elements is critical for some end users and may not be of interest for others. To reduce the complexity, the framework categorises the information provision into three levels depending on user requirements such as policy and planning; response and recovery; and research and analysis. Australian Natural Hazards Exposure Framework (ANHEF) levels and their aims, description and boundaries are outlined in Built Environment Exposure Information Framework Report. There is some fundamental information and common elements that underpins the entire exposure framework such as spatial enablement; land use categorisation; insurance status and metadata outlined in Built Environment Exposure Information Framework Report.

The business exposure information framework presents the exposure elements required to develop information systems to support the impact analysis of both micro-economic (business sectors) and macro-economic (regional) for disaster risk reduction from a variety of natural hazards. The micro-economic variables considered in the framework include business entity, type, size, operations, space usage, workforce and input requirements. Whereas the macro-economic variables include the size and performance of the economy, industry sectors and labour force characteristics to assess the local economy.

The document outlines a generic framework to underpin the utilisation and is focused on end user requirements. The report identifies a list of exposure elements across different components of the business and economic activity that are presented in the summary tables.

}, keywords = {business exposure, disaster, framework, modelling, risk reduction}, issn = {542}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli and Itismita Mohanty and Mohsen Kalantari and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-3325, title = {Calibration of water balance using digital photography}, number = {241}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Prescribed fires impact the hydrological cycle in forested catchments because they remove vegetation and modify the amount of evapotranspiration (ET) that occurs. Evapotranspiration is the most important component of the hydrological cycle and perturbations to it can substantially affect the water balance of an ecosystem. However, our understanding of ET responses to disturbance is very limited and this makes post-fire assessment of water balance difficult.


In this study we used relationships between tree size and tree water use, and leaf area index (LAI) and forest water use to investigate the impact of fuel-reduction burning (FRB) on water availability. Leaf area index is an important input for estimating ET and measurement techniques such as digital photography can potentially be used by land managers as a means of rapidly quantifying the impact of FRB on water balance at both the plot- and catchment-scale. Our results will enable land managers to identify hydrologically sensitive areas in accordance with their management objectives.

}, issn = {241}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Malcolm Possell and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5154, title = {Case studies of material properties of late nineteenth-century unreinforced masonry buildings in Adelaide}, journal = {Australian Journal of Civil Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

An experimental programme was developed to improve our understanding of the actual\ in situ\ strength of non-structural components in typical South Australian unreinforced masonry (URM) construction. The focus was on testing URM walls and chimneys in out-of-plane direction, and in the course of this study 132 as-built URM material specimens were collected. The specimens were tested either\ in situ\ or in laboratory. In total, four URM houses located in Darlington, a southern suburb of Adelaide, South Australia, were studied. Three of the buildings were built in the 1960s and the fourth was built in the 1980s. A comparison between the buildings material strength and the default values recommended in the Australian Masonry Standards, AS3700, suggests that the code specified default lower 5\% characteristic values were often greater than the measured characteristic strength. The collected data are presented for documentation and some comparison between this and other studies are also made.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14488353.2017.1401196}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14488353.2017.1401196}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5086, title = {Challenges for valuing ecosystem services from an Indigenous estate in northern Australia}, journal = {Ecosystem Services}, volume = {25}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, pages = {167-178}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {

Recent Australian government policy for developing northern Australia applies a standard financial approach that disregards the importance of Ecosystem Services (ES), and the significance of associated socio-cultural benefits of ES for the wellbeing of Indigenous people who constitute the majority of the regional rural population. First, we assess available ES valuation methods for estimating non-market and market values of ES from an Indigenous estate, Fish River Station (FRS), representative of {\textquoteleft}typical{\textquoteright} regional savannas. Second, we estimate the direct (fire and weed management) and indirect (foregone income from pastoral enterprise) costs associated with maintaining those services. For valuation of ES, we applied a conventional Basic Value Transfer technique using global databases including available regional studies{\textemdash}providing valuations of USD 286 and 84\ M\ y-1, respectively. However, constituent studies used in these valuations had limited relevance to both the ecosystems and socio-cultural contexts of our study. For evaluating Indigenous socio-ecological benefits of ES, estimated conservatively at USD 2.21\ M\ y-1, we applied a local wellbeing valuation technique. The minimum costs required to maintain ES flows were estimated as USD 5.6\ ha-1\ y-1. Our study illustrates that, to better inform regional development policy, significant challenges remain for appropriate valuation of ES from north Australian savannas, including recognition of socio-cultural services and wellbeing benefits incorporating Indigenous values.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.04.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041616302984}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Scott Morrison and Robert Costanza and Andrew C. Edwards} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4653, title = {Changing Fire Regimes in Tropical and Subtropical Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, pages = {190}, school = {University of Queensland}, address = {St Lucia}, abstract = {

The focus of the study is to investigate regional and local past, present and future changes in fire regimes of tropical and subtropical Queensland and shifts in vegetation composition and structure. Fire has been shown to be a significant driver of ecosystem evolution, composition and distribution through its impact on biota. Within Australia fire has long played a role in shaping the landscape, with increased fire frequency, associated with heightened aridity, over the last five million years promoting the expansion of fire adapted sclerophyll vegetation across the continent. Evidence of anthropogenic fires date back to approximately 50 ka (thousand years ago) with the advent of Aboriginal occupation and fire-stick practices, however with the arrival of Europeans there was a decline in fire frequencies, related to fire exclusion that observes an increase in fire intensity and severity. A review of the introduction of tropical African perennial grasses to improve grazing in tropical and semi-arid regions of northern Australia was also undertaken. This introduction has resulted in some exotic grass species such as Gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), Mission grass (Cenchrus polystachios syn. Pennisetum polystachion) and Guinea grass (Megathyrsus maximus syn. Panicum maximum Jacq. var. trichoglume) becoming invasive pests. Invasion by these exotic grasses has serious implications for ecosystem function, altering fire regime dynamics through increasing the distribution and abundance of fine fuels. With increased fine fuels there is a serious danger that there will be an increase in fire frequency and intensity resulting in higher severity burns and higher vegetation mortality, with possible local species extinctions and habitat modification or change. Macro charcoal and pollen records were used from Fraser Island, subtropical eastern Australia to identify fire and vegetation histories, which show substantial temporal and spatial changes in past fire frequencies and vegetation composition for the last 24,000 years. Pollen records show pyrophobic rainforest taxa dominated and then declined while pyrogenic sclerophyll arboreal taxa increased correlating with an increase in fire frequencies, and a dryer climate. This was followed by a dramatic increase in Restionaceae values at the beginning of the Holocene (~10,000 years ago) that dropped off as a marked peak in mangroves, primarily the Rhizophoraceae and Melaleuca iii occurred, possibly linked with sea level rise approximately 6000 to 5000 years ago, which was also associated with lower fire frequencies. Restionaceae then recovered from around 2 ka to the European settlement period, when a dramatic change in fire frequency occurred linked to fire suppression and was followed by vegetation thickening (i.e. increase in arboreal taxa) in the mid to late 20th century. Vegetation thickening was investigated on Fraser Island through land change analysis of aerial photographs and survey data between 1958 and 2016 of a wetland system at Moon Point. This was undertaken using the Land Change Modeller (IDRISI TerrSet), with results showing that forest and woodland communities have invaded the fringes of a restiad dominated wetland. Pollen results from adjacent sediment cores support the occurrence of vegetation thickening that appears to be linked to marked changes in fire regimes on the island associated with European management since the 19th century. A projection of further landscape change was made to 2066 and this suggested a 30\% loss in wetland extent by this time under present fire frequencies (i.e. with a mean of approximately one fire every plus/minus 12 years). Identifying past and present fire regimes and vegetation composition are important for fire modelling as this provides possible scenario based probabilities for changes in fire frequency and intensity. Modelling is useful in that it provides managers with a tool to ascertain possible scenario based outcomes depending on the input values. Here the FireBGCv2 fire simulation model has been applied to an Australian context to provide a research simulation platform for exploring fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics that can be directly applied to fire management applications. Fire has played an integral role in shaping the Australian landscape, with fire regimes driven by both climatic and anthropogenic factors during the late Quaternary period. Evidence of shifts in vegetation and fire regimes for the subtropics of Australia can be seen from pollen and charcoal analysis, with dramatic changes occurring over the past 24,000 years on Fraser Island. With the arrival and settlement of Europeans in the mid19th century, fire regimes were once again changed that resulted in further vegetation shifts due to a fire exclusion policy. Further shifts in fire regimes can be seen in tropical northern Australia through the introduction on invasive grasses increasing fuel loads and iv fire frequency, resulting in a transformed landscape, perpetuating a fire grass cycle. However in the subtropics alterations in fire management have seen a reduction in fire frequency with a thickening of vegetation along the ecotone of E. minus wetlands and sclerophyllous forests at Moon Point on Fraser Island. The complexities of fire regimes for managers is obvious, therefore there is a need for a dynamic mechanistic fire simulation model that managers can use as a tool to project present and future fire events.

}, keywords = {burning, Fire, fire impacts, fire regime, grassland, Great Sandy region., history, Queensland}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2018.66}, author = {Philip Stewart} } @article {bnh-4007, title = {Children in disasters: the role of household preparedness}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

To increase children{\textquoteright}s resilience to disasters, it is important to expand our understanding of what increases their vulnerability. One household factor that has been tied to disaster resilience in general is the extent to which households have prepared themselves. In the context of wildfire preparedness, the current study examined whether households with very young, young, or teenage children differ in the extent to which they prepare their household compared to childless households. A two-wave survey study amongst Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas (Nwave1\ =\ 998,\ Nwave2\ =\ 514) found that households with young (under twelve years old) and very young (under six years old) children had prepared their properties less for wildfires compared to childless households at the start of the wildfire season, but they had caught up in property preparedness by the end of it. However, households with younger children also performed fewer disaster-planning actions than childless households. This difference remained significant throughout the season. The former group also reported lower motivation to prepare, greater perceived difficulty in preparing, and greater lack of time to prepare than childless households. The majority of these findings were explained by the younger age of the adult parents rather than the presence of younger children per se. An exception was that those with young and very young children reported a greater lack of time to prepare than childless adults of a similar age. We discuss practice and public policy implications that follow from this research.

}, doi = {10.1007/s1106}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-017-3019-8}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-5087, title = {Collapse assessment of reinforced concrete building columns through multi-axis hybrid simulation}, journal = {ACI Structural Journal}, volume = {114}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, abstract = {

One of the major challenges in collapse assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) structures has been the lack of realistic data obtained from reliable experimental loading protocols that are capable of accurately quantifying the reserve capacity of RC structures beyond the design level to the state of complete collapse. Until now, quasi-static (QS) symmetrically cyclic or monotonic tests with constant axial load have been commonly used, which are not adequate to accurately capture the actual response of a collapsing RC structure in real earthquake events. Hybrid simulation (HS) can be considered an attractive alternative to realistically simulate more complex boundary conditions and improve response prediction of a structure from elastic range to collapse. This paper presents a comparative experimental study on two identical, large-scale, limited-ductility RC columns that are tested to collapse through QS and HS, respectively. The RC columns serve as the first-story corner-column of a half-scale symmetrical five-byfive-bay five-story RC ordinary moment frame building structure. A state-of-the-art facility, referred to as a multi-axis substructure testing (MAST) system, is used that is capable of controlling all six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) boundary conditions in mixed load and deformation modes. The load protocol in the QS test includes constant axial load combined with bidirectional lateral deformation reversals, while in the HS, more realistic boundary effects including fluctuation in axial load and the ratcheting behavior (that is, asymmetrical lateral deformation prior to collapse) are simulated. The hysteretic response behaviors obtained from the QS and HS tests are then used for calibrating the analytical models employed in a comparative collapse risk assessment. The results show that the improved interface boundary effects lead to significant changes in hysteretic response and the calibration parameters and, as a result, estimating the probability of collapse. This highlights that the credibility of collapse assessment results relies to a great extent on the application of correct boundary interface on RC columns.

}, url = {https://www.concrete.org/publications/internationalconcreteabstractsportal/m/details/id/51689438}, author = {Mojgen Hashemi and Hing-Ho Tsang and Al-Ogaidi, Y and John Wilson and Al-Mahaidi, R} } @article {bnh-3383, title = {Community understanding of tsunami risk and warnings systems in Australia: final project report 2017}, number = {245}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Eastern Australian coastline faces some 8,000km of active tectonic plate boundary that is capable of generating tsunami that could reach Australia in 2-4 hours. Australia also faces risk from events occurring in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with warning times of some 4-8 hours. In New South Wales; some 330,000 people are living at or below a height of 10 metres above sea-level and within 1km of the coast or a coastal river. Recognition of this risk promoted the development of the Australian Tsunami Warning System (ATWS). The effectiveness of a warning system is a function of its ability to detect a threat, issue a warning, and facilitate timely and effective action in those at risk. This project adopted a qualitative approach to assessing people{\textquoteright}s view about tsunami warnings and their ability to act on them.

Interviews with volunteer, community, and maritime groups and organizations revealed that tsunami are perceived as a non-existent or very low probability event throughout Australia. A belief that no tsunami events had occurred in Australia (at least since colonial times), that major causes (e.g., seismic, volcanic) were absent, and a lack of regular government (local and national) and media discussion of tsunami reinforced this view. Consequently, the predominant belief about tsunami was characterized by risk rejection. Risk rejection resulted in respondents believing that no resources or effort should be directed to tsunami risk reduction strategies. Rectifying this view involves more than training.
Training was found to increase knowledge of tsunami characteristics and behavior, but it did not translate into acceptance of a need for action. Consistent with the literature on risk, respondents discussed the need to increase the public profile of tsunami, and to do so in ways that localize risk reduction activities. In general, the diversity (e.g., in terms of geographic location, topography, demographics, length of residence etc.) of areas susceptible to experiencing tsunami around Australia reinforced the need to develop local level initiatives and develop local warning and community response capabilities. The existence of several volunteer and community groups in susceptible areas makes it feasible to consider the development of local strategies.

The research discussed the availability and use of the {\textquotedblleft}Tsunami: The ultimate guide{\textquotedblright} resource. With the exception of those respondents who had had some involvement in its development, those interviewed were largely unaware of its availability. This was more a function of the fact that tsunami are not a high profile hazard in school curricula. When made aware of the Guide, the consensus was that it appeared to be a useful resource. The uptake of the Guide will be influenced by the degree to which tsunami are seen as a phenomenon that makes a significant contribution to the Australian hazard-scape. The availability of the Guide means that it can be used to complement a risk acceptance strategy (see above) and ensure that community members and schools have ready access to an informative resource to support local risk reduction planning and actions.

}, issn = {245}, author = {Paton, Douglas and David Johnston and Katelyn Rossiter} } @article {bnh-3384, title = {Community Understanding of Tsunami Risk and Warnings Systems in Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, abstract = {

The Australian coastline includes 8000 km of active tectonic plate boundary\ capable of generating tsunamis that could impact Australia (Australian Bureau\ of Meteorology 2008, Attorney-General{\textquoteright}s Department 2008, Burbidge et al.\ 2008, Dominey-Howes 2007). Australia has experienced over 50 recorded\ incidents of tsunami since European settlement (Anderson 2015).\ Travel times for tsunamis from the closest sources (the Puysegur Trench, south\ of New Zealand, and the Java Trench, south of Java) are approximately two\ hours. Allowing for detection and message formation, warning times of as little\ as 90 minutes can be anticipated. More distant sources have greater travel\ times and correspondingly longer warning times. Should a tsunami occur, the atrisk\ population is large. For example, in New South Wales, 330,000 people live at\ or below a height of 10 metres above sea level and within one kilometre of the\ coast or a coastal river (Bird \& Dominey-Howes 2006).

Recognition of the risk tsunamis pose for coastal communities prompted the\ development of the ATWS. However, to be effective, people must know about\ the system and be able to respond in planned and functional ways when a\ warning is received. It is essential that development of warning systems is\ complemented with activities that address the capability of people to respond\ promptly and appropriately when receiving a warning, particularly if warnings\ only give two hours for plans to be implemented. However, because warning\ systems have developed faster than community capability to respond to them, a need was identified to develop people{\textquoteright}s response capability (Bird \&\ Dominey-Howes 2006, Bird \& Dominey-Howes, 2008, Dall{\textquoteright}Osso et al. 2009,\ Dominey-Howes et al. 2007, Gregg et al. 2007, Johnston et al. 2005, Johnston\ et al. 2009, King \& Gurtner 2005, Paton, Frandsen \& Johnston 2010). To\ develop people{\textquoteright}s capability to respond it is important to examine people{\textquoteright}s\ understanding of and beliefs about tsunami and the implications for tsunami\ risk communication, warnings and preparedness.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-01-12}, author = {Paton, Douglas and David Johnston and Katelyn Rossiter} } @conference {bnh-3895, title = {A community{\textquoteright}s experience of bushfire response and recovery}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Introduction: This paper documents the research of a community{\textquoteright}s experience of the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster. \ 

Background: Friday 4 January 2013 was one of the most significant fire days in Tasmania since 1967. \ It was the Forcett bushfire that caused the most damage.\  During and immediately after the bushfire event some of the small communities were inaccessible due to the hazard and road closures. \ Many local people isolated in these small communities impacted by the bushfire fulfilled various roles and acted in response to the evolving individual and community needs.\  It appeared over time that much of this energy and focus shifted to accommodating the external response, i.e. donations, help and goodwill. \  \ 

Literature: There are numerous studies and articles that draw attention to the concept of resilience in disasters. The disaster management sector recognises the critical role that community members play in the disaster management process, nevertheless in practice it has been problematic. \ 

Research inquiry: This study aims to understand a community{\textquoteright}s experience of the 2013 Forcett bushfire disaster in southeast Tasmania. \ Constructivist grounded theory offered a practical method to gain insight into understanding the local processes. The research investigated: what happened; how community members approached the event and what they thought was important; and what supported or hindered their involvement. \ The study aims to communicate rich insights into the community{\textquoteright}s experience of a bushfire disaster to assist in refining ways of working with people, groups and communities impacted by these types of hazard events.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project: \ This study is linked to the {\textquoteleft}Out of Uniform building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering{\textquoteright} project.\ 

}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-3599, title = {Comparison of soil wetness from multiple models over Australia with observations}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {53}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, pages = {633-646}, chapter = {633}, abstract = {

The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index used in Australia for operational fire warnings has a component representing fuel availability called the Drought Factor (DF). The DF is partly based on soil moisture deficit, calculated as either the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) or Mount{\textquoteright}s Soil Dryness Index (MSDI). The KBDI and MSDI are simplified water balance models driven by observation based daily rainfall and temperature. In this work, gridded KBDI and MSDI analyses are computed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km and are verified against in-situ soil moisture observations. Also verified is another simple model called the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). Soil moisture analyses from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system as well as remotely sensed soil wetness retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) are also verified. The verification shows that the NWP soil wetness analyses have greater skill and smaller biases than the KBDI, MSDI and API analyses. This is despite the NWP system having a coarse horizontal resolution and not using observed precipitation. The average temporal correlations (root mean square difference) between cosmic ray soil moisture monitoring facility observations and modeled or remotely sensed soil wetness are 0.82 (0.15 {\textpm}0.02), 0.66 (0.33 {\textpm}0.07), 0.77 (0.20 {\textpm}0.03), 0.74 (0.22 {\textpm}0.03) and 0.83 (0.18 {\textpm}0.04) for NWP, KBDI, MSDI, API and ASCAT. The results from this study suggests that analyses of soil moisture can be greatly improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

}, doi = {10.1002/2015WR017738}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017738/abstract}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and John Bally and Steinle, P. and D. McJannet and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-4627, title = {A comparison of the discrete cosine and wavelet transforms for hydrologic model input data reduction}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

The treatment of input data uncertainty in hydrologic models is of crucial importance in the analysis, diagnosis and detection of model structural errors. Data reduction techniques decrease the dimensionality of input data, thus allowing modern parameter estimation algorithms to more efficiently estimate errors associated with input uncertainty and model structure. The discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are used to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438\ catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. The results convincingly demonstrate that the DWT is superior to the DCT in preserving and characterizing the observed rainfall data records. It is recommended that the DWT be used for model input data reduction in hydrology in preference over the DCT.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, hydrological models, wavelet}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017}, url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/3827/2017/hess-21-3827-2017.html}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-3345, title = {On the concept of denial of natural hazard risk and its use in relation to householder wildfire safety in Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {21}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, pages = {176-186}, chapter = {176}, abstract = {

Denial has often been used to explain why some residents at risk from natural hazards do not take appropriate threat mitigation actions. However, there has been little critical discussion of the concept of denial in relation to natural hazards. We examined the origins and development of the concept and noted that denial, as an explanation for inaction, is an inferred construct, not an observable phenomenon. We reviewed accounts that proposed denial as an explanation for residents failing to mitigate their natural hazard risk. We concluded that the concept has been used so inconsistently as to be meaningless without an explanation of the intended sense of the term. We discuss findings from reports of post-event interviews with residents threatened by severe Australian wildfires, and from a survey of agency community safety senior managers. The reports indicated that small percentages of residents in high-risk communities could be described as perhaps being in denial. The survey found that none of the wildfire agencies employed the concept formally. We suggest that it may be more useful to view most householders{\textquoteright} failures to mitigate their wildfire risk as resulting from potential threats being entwined with more immediate higher priority competing demands of everyday life.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.12.006}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916306720}, author = {Jim McLennan and Danielle Every and Christopher Bearman and Wright, Lyndsey} } @article {bnh-3924, title = {The contribution of turbulent plume dynamics to long-range spotting}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {26}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, pages = {317-330}, chapter = {317}, abstract = {

Spotting can start fires up to tens of kilometres ahead of the primary fire front, causing rapid spread and placing immense pressure on suppression resources. Here, we investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume generated by the fire and its ability to transport firebrands. We couple large-eddy simulations of bushfire plumes with a firebrand transport model to assess the effects of turbulent plume dynamics on firebrand trajectories. We show that plume dynamics have a marked effect on the maximum spotting distance and determine the amount of lateral and longitudinal spread in firebrand landing position. In-plume turbulence causes much of this spread and can increase the maximum spotting distance by a factor of more than 2 over that in a plume without turbulence in our experiments. The substantial impact of plume dynamics on the spotting process implies that fire spread models should include parametrisations of turbulent plume dynamics to improve their accuracy and physical realism.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF16142}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF16142}, author = {W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-4212, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for building related earthquake risk: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {348}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 1989 Newcastle Earthquake caused damage to 70,000 properties, with an associated total economic loss of AU$ 4 billion. Consistently, the insurance industry has estimated the economic risk posed by a moderate earthquake in any of the capital cities in Australia to be of the order of billions of dollars. A major reason for this risk is that Australia has not designed buildings for earthquake-induced forces until 1995 so that a large portion of our building stock is seismically vulnerable.

As demonstrated in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010-11, a magnitude 6 earthquake can have a devastating impact on a city and country (damage rebuild estimated at ~ 20\% national GDP!) even though buildings there have been designed for earthquakes for many decades.

This project includes collaborative research from 4 partner institutions to establish:

  1. The relative vulnerabilities to earthquake shaking of the most common forms of building construction in Australia;
  2. What earthquake retrofit techniques worked and what didn{\textquoteright}t as a starting point in developing a {\textquoteleft}menu{\textquoteright} of economically feasible seismic retrofit techniques that could be used in Australian cities;
  3. With industry end-user support, conduct proof of concept tests on some of the most promising seismic retrofit techniques on buildings scheduled for demolition by the SA state government;
  4. Use the new damage and economic loss models developed over the first 3 years of this project to undertake a seismic risk assessment case study of the Melbourne metro area; and
  5. Advance a series of end user focused research utilization projects in the areas of improved building regulation, community risk reduction, design profession guidance and insurance industry engagement with their policy holders. These will include an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia and Development of a Rapid Visual Screening procedure for Australian buildings

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, make recommendations for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base developed.

}, issn = {348}, author = {Michael Griffith and Hossein Derakhshan and Elisa Lumantarna and Hing-Ho Tsang and Helen M. Goldsworthy and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-3798, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for building related earthquake risk: final report on economic loss modelling}, number = {246}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output from the Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk project within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

Earthquakes have the potential to cause widespread damage to Australian communities and the economic activity that occurs within them. Recent earthquake events have illustrated this, including the Newcastle Earthquake (1989) and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake (2010). This potential is largely due to the fact that much of the Australian building stock has not been designed nor constructed with adequate consideration of earthquake hazard.

Mitigation intervention is needed to reduce this risk but an evidence base is lacking to inform investment. In particular, there is a need for economic measures of the benefits of retrofit as an offset to the sometimes large costs of upgrading structures for earthquake.

This need exists in many other countries. As part of this research a literature survey of research published internationally is underway to inform the best approach for assessing the costs of business interruption and the losses associated with injury and death. The findings of this work to date are described and are informing the research program.

This report also describes the frameworks developed for a range of Australian decision makers. Decision makers include building owners, owners of both business premises and the business within, local government, state government and national government. The scale of decision making metrics range from individual building level up to business precinct level exposures and the interdependence of building performance within them. The information and models required as inputs into the framework have been identified along with how these will be met, either with outputs from this CRC project, or from other sources.

The research on the economic loss modelling has produced a functional model. Future work will add refinements to the model such as casualty cost modules adapted from published material. In the succeeding year business interruption loss models will be developed and framework/methodology developed for assessing precinct level economic activity disruption.

}, issn = {246}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-4211, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for flood prone buildings: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {333}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. The flood events also resulted in significant logistics for emergency management and disruption to communities. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. The vulnerability of existing building stock contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

To date, the project within the BNHCRC has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. Five typical storey types have been selected which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies have been costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists.

Furthermore, selected building materials/systems have been tested to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. These tests were aimed at addressing knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability of building materials during immersion. The results of the tests showed that flooding did not have any significant effect on the pull-out strength of the bond of the ceramic floor and wall tiles to their substrate, nor on the racking strength of the OSB and HDF wall sheet bracing. However, there was a significant reduction (~45\%) in load carrying capacity of the timber joists when tested in the wet condition.

In the following years of the project vulnerability of predominant storey types will be assessed. The information on vulnerability is fundamental to evaluate mitigation strategies and to examine the opportunities for reducing the vulnerability. The research will include cost benefit analysis to find optimal mitigation strategies for selected storey types located within a range of catchment types.

This project is investigating methods for upgrading existing housing stock in floodplains to increase their resilience in future flood events. The project will provide an evidence base to inform decision making by governments and property owners to reduce flood risk. The risk mitigation achieved will decrease human suffering, improve safety and ensure amenity for communities.

}, issn = {333}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-4204, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {307}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of the project is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes by running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model.\  Planned outcomes of the project include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of a coupled model on the national computing infrastructure and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

Weather forecasting and fire prediction are similar in that skilled practitioners of both rely on a combination of detailed scientific knowledge and objective analysis, juxtaposed with pattern recognition that draws on past experience and a mental inventory of previous events.\ \  By preparing detailed case studies and coupled simulations of events where unexpected or unusual fire-atmosphere interactions occurred, we contribute to both the scientific understanding for fire{\textendash}atmosphere interactions and the knowledge base of operational meteorologists and fire analysts.

The project started in March 2016, and work for the first year and a quarter has been on two main fronts; a case study of the Waroona fire and implementing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

The Waroona fire in Western Australia in January 2016 was selected as the first case study. It was a complex event, with \ significant impacts including the destruction of the town of Yarloop. A detailed paper on the Waroona fire has been prepared and the manuscript submitted to the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems and Science (JSHESS). The paper is expected to be published by late 2017. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between Department of Parks and Wildlife, WA and research and operational representatives from the Bureau of Meteorology. The work has been presented at a number of forums and has been accepted for oral presentation at two major conferences in late 2017.

Progress with the coupled model ACCESS-Fire (ACCESS is the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator) has been slower than anticipated, but significant headway has been made. ACCESS high resolution nested suites are now running on the project space on the National Computing Infrastructure. Importantly, the framework is more generic than the original code and can be easily re-configured to relocate and run for a new event anywhere in Australia. The nested suites are now running successfully in the advanced graphical user interface "Rose-Cylc" which will receive ongoing support and development from the UK Met Office. The fire code has been implemented on the JULES land-surface scheme and final testing is in progress.

}, issn = {307}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace and Harvey Ye} } @conference {bnh-3902, title = {Cultural worldviews and natural hazard risk perception: a pilot study of Australian adults}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Perception of the risks of natural hazards is considered to be one of the precursors of desirable behaviors of mitigation, preparation, and resilience. However, the processes of risk perception are complex and are likely related to underlying cognitive factors associated with information processing. Cultural worldview theory suggests that people actively choose what to fear (and how much to fear it) in order to support their ways of life (Kahan, 2012). Aspects of these choices may include prioritizing public vs. private interests, choice vs. control, and differing levels of belief and/or adherence to egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, and communitarianism. To assess whether and how cultural worldviews relate to perceptions of risk to natural hazards we recruited 503 residents of New South Wales (stratified between urban and regional areas) who completed a cultural worldview questionnaire and a new questionnaire developed by the researchers to assess four aspects of natural hazards: 1) perceptions of the risk of natural hazards; 2) perceptions of control over natural hazards; 3) perceptions of responsibility for natural hazard preparation and outcome; and 4) trust in different sources of information about natural hazards. Results indicated significant but varying relationships among cultural cognition types (i.e., egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, communitarianism) and the four aspects of natural hazard risk perception. Some consistency was found regarding how cultural cognition types predicted risk perception across four different types of natural hazards (bushfire, flood, severe thunderstorm, earthquake) but this also varied by geographical location. Understanding the influence of cultural worldviews on attitudes toward natural hazards might lead to community engagement messages orientated to the views of egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, and communitarianism.

}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Amy Lykins} } @article {bnh-4218, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning in emergency management: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {345}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Strategic level emergency management is becoming ever more sophisticated as emergencies caused by natural hazards become more complex and dynamic. If we are going to expect people to operate in this increasingly complex environment we need to make sure that they have the necessary skills and tools.\  This is especially true of non-technical skills such as teamwork and decision making.\  This project aims to develop simple practical tools that help people to make better decisions and manage teams more effectively.\  As part of this work we are also interested in understanding some of the enablers and barriers to effective research utilization.\  The project therefore has three streams: team monitoring, decision making and organizational learning.

In the team monitoring stream, two teamwork checklists have been developed based on an extensive literature review and discussions with our end-user partners.\  These checklists (known as EMBAM \& TPC) have been trialed during exercises, real time operations and debriefs with encouraging results.\  Qualitative and quantitative studies have so far shown that these checklists are clear, concise and provide useful information that can be used to improve teamwork.

In the decision making stream, we have conducted three interrelated studies that examined how emergency management organisations maintain, assess, and improve the quality of their decisions. The three studies included using a critical decision method to explore strategic decision making during an international disaster, exercising teams in simulated emergency events and training focused on improving decision making skills and knowledge. The resultant qualitative and quantitative research has identified several consistent themes in terms of where participants perceive their organisations to be performing well and areas that can lead to improvements in decision-making. Further tranches of data collection have been scheduled to verify these results across 2017.

The key aim of the organizational learning stream is to help emergency management staff to function more effectively in increasingly complex environments. Its overall approach is to help agencies to {\textquoteright}learn how to learn{\textquoteright}, so they understand how to embed effective learning practices and systems into their organisation{\textquoteright}s culture. The experiential learning model, which is grounded in real-world experiences rather than classroom training, is a key focus of this research. No organisation can forgo learning. All experiences provide opportunities for learning to occur. A key insight for agencies interested in facilitating improvements in learning is to locate potential weak links in the learning cycle and to develop a better understanding of how to learn.

}, issn = {345}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Rainbird, Sophia and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-5089, title = {A design spectrum model for flexible soil sites in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity}, journal = {Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {92}, year = {2017}, month = {2017}, pages = {36-45}, chapter = {36}, abstract = {

Design spectrum (DS) models in major\ codes of practice\ for\ structural designof buildings typically stipulate empirical site factors for each of the five, or six, site classes. Although the phenomenon of resonant like amplification behaviour of the structure caused by multiple\ wave reflections\ is well known, the potentials for such periodic amplification behaviour are not explicitly considered in code models. This is partly because of expert opinion that such effects are very {\textquotedblleft}localised{\textquotedblright} in the frequency domain and can be suppressed readily by damping. However, investigations into the risk of collapse of non-ductile, and irregular structural systems, common in regions of low-to-moderate\ seismicity, revealed the extensive influence of periodic base excitations on flexible soil sites (with initial small-strain natural period\ Ti\>0.5s). In this paper, an alternative DS model which addresses the important phenomenon of soil resonance without the need of computational site\ response analysis\ of the subsurface model of the site is introduced.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2016.09.035}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0267726116303219}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Ray Kai Leng Su} } @article {bnh-5164, title = {Detecting structural damage to bridge girders using radar interferometry and computational modelling}, journal = {Structural Control and Health Monitoring}, volume = {24}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

The process for assessing the condition of a bridge involves continuously monitoring changes to the material properties, support conditions, and system connectivity throughout its life cycle. It is known that the structural integrity of bridges can be monitored by measuring their vibration responses. However, the relationship between frequency changes and structural damage is still not fully understood. This study presents a bridge condition assessment framework which integrates computational modelling and noncontact radar sensor techniques (i.e., IBIS-S) to predict changes in the natural frequencies of a bridge girder as a result of a range of parameters that govern its structural performance (e.g., elastomeric bearing stiffness, concrete compressive stiffness, and crack propagation). Using a prestressed concrete bridge in Australia as a case study, the research outcomes suggest that vibration monitoring using IBIS-S is an efficient way for detecting the degradation of elastomeric bearing stiffness and shear crack propagation in the support areas that can significantly affect the overall structural integrity of a bridge structure. However, frequency measurements have limited capability for detecting the decrease in the material properties of a bridge girder.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/stc.1985}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/stc.1985}, author = {Maizuar Maizuar and Lihai Zhang and Saeed Miramini and Priyan Mendis and Russell G Thompson} } @article {bnh-5141, title = {Determination of smoldering time and thermal characteristics of firebrands under laboratory conditions}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {91}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {791-799}, chapter = {791}, abstract = {

The laboratory experiment was conducted to simulate the transfer of smouldering particles produced in forest wildfires by a heated gas flow. The pine bark pieces with the linear dimensions\ L=(15; 20; 30) mm and a thickness of\ h=(4-5)mm were selected as model particles. The rate and temperature of the incident flow varied in the range of 1{\textendash}3m/s and 80{\textendash}85{\textdegree}C, respectively. The temperature of the samples was recorded using a thermal imager. To determine the minimum smouldering temperature of pine bark, the thermal analysis was conducted. The minimum smouldering temperature of pine bark was found to be 190{\textdegree}C. This temperature will cause thermal decomposition of bark only at the first stage (oxidation of resinous components). In the study the smouldering time, the temperature and the weight of samples were obtained and analyzed under various experimental conditions. The data analysis shows that the increase in the particle size leads to the decrease in their mass loss, and the rate change of the incident flow does not practically influence the mass change. For particles with the linear dimensions of 10mm and 20mm, the mass varies from 6\% to 25\%. The maximum mass loss is observed for the flows with a rate of 1 and 2m/s. The results have shown that the increase in the particle size leads to the increase in the smouldering time. The position of the particle plays an important role, the effect of which increases with increasing the particle size. The calculations showed that the smouldering time of bark samples is long enough for the particles to serve as new sources of spot fires. The particles were found to be transported to a distance of 218m from the fire line which can certainly influence the propagation of the fire front.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2017.03.080}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037971121730125X}, author = {Vladimir Fateev and Mikhail Agafontsev and Sergey Volkov and Alex Filkov} } @article {bnh-4206, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {319}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Organisations that manage bushfires are expected to deliver scientifically defensible decisions. However, the limited availability of high quality data restricts the rate at which research can advance. The nature of bushfires contributes to this; they are infrequent, complex events, occur with limited notice and are of relatively short duration. Some information is typically collected during bushfires however it may not be of an appropriate standard for research. In the past year we have focused on the information that is typically collected during fires. First we reviewed the information routinely collected during fire events across Australia. Secondly, we reviewed research methodologies that may be able to supplement existing data collection. Based on the results of these surveys, we developed a recommended list of attributes for routine collection during bushfires. We also suggest standards of data collection from bushfire events to enhance the advancement of fire behaviour research and make research findings more internationally relevant. In a research field typified by scarce data, improved data collection standards and methodologies will enhance information quality and allow the advancement in the development of quality science (1). In addition to the fire data review, we investigated embers, including their production and how they burn (2,3).

}, issn = {319}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-3343, title = {Developing a scale to understand willingness to sacrifice personal safety for companion animals: The Pet-Owner Risk Propensity Scale (PORPS)}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {21}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, pages = {205-212}, chapter = {205}, abstract = {

Multiple factors motivate people to risk their safety for companion animals during disasters. Often, this entails people re-entering dangerous areas, delaying evacuation, and risking personal harm to protect animals. Importantly, the intensity of this behaviour varies between individuals, with the capacity to take risk-mitigating actions also limited by self-efficacy when managing companion animals under threatening conditions. As these two factors have received little attention, this study presents the construction, through principal components analysis, of a stable 24-item multidimensional scale measuring the potential intensity and perceived efficacy of pet-directed actions during disasters: the Pet-Owner Risk Propensity Scale. The initial 64-item pool derived from first-person bushfire accounts of Australian companion-animal owners. Items were then administered to Australian companion-animal owners living in disaster-susceptible locations (n=553). Preliminary findings support its validity, reliability, and utility in understanding companion-animal owners{\textquoteright} risk-taking propensity, which may help predict and avoid harmful outcomes for people and their animals during disasters, both in Australia and elsewhere.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.12.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916305714}, author = {Trigg, Josh and Bradley P Smith and Bennett, Pauleen and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-4198, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {330}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Major advances were achieved during 2016 and the project is on track to\ produce, by the end of 2017, improved predictions of extreme sea levels\ targeted to emergency managers and planners. This will be achieved through\ application of an improved high-resolution hydrodynamic model that has been\ developed and tested for a wide range of extreme events occurring over the\ past 30+ years around Australia.

Long-term model runs for the years 1959-2016 are presently nearing completion\ using improved meteorological forcing, higher spatial resolution at the coastline\ (up to 100 m), and improved bathymetic data compared to Haigh et al [1, 2]\ (Figure 3). The multi-decadal simulations are approximately 30\% (1959-1979),\ complete and are expected to be finished within the upcoming month.\ Concurrently, work is ongoing to synthesise the results into effective\ communication tools for the improved sea level estimates, based on feedback\ from end-users.\ 

The UWA team has worked to directly share knowledge gained through the\ project with the BOM storm surge model development team, as well through\ presentations of modeling advances at national conferences and workshops,\ including: AFAC (30 August 2016, Brisbane), Australian Meteorological \&\ Oceanographic Society (AMOS, October 2016) and internationally in the UK\ over the past year.

Communication was initiated with end-users to develop effective data\ dissemination tools during a BNHCRC workshop at Geoscience Australia in\ Canberra during April 2017. The work has been cited as an important\ benchmark to give context to forecasts produced my BOM, and to give\ consistent estimates for planning purposes over broad regions. The project also\ interacted with the BNHCRC terrestrial flooding researchers from Monash\ University who expressed interest in using the UWA sea level predictions as ocean boundary conditions for their flood models.\ 

Specific advances related to physical processes influencing predictions of\ extreme sea levels that have been achieved to date are summarised in the\ subsections below and explained in more detail in this report. These processes\ include:\ 

}, issn = {330}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @article {bnh-3957, title = {Development of a full-scale structural testing program to evaluate the resistance of Australian houses to wind loads}, journal = {Frontiers in Built Environment}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

Extensive damage to houses during severe tropical cyclones in the 1970s in Australia highlighted the need for research-based structural engineering principles to be applied in design and construction of houses. Houses have structural redundancies and complex load paths, so the analysis of even simple houses was complicated. In order to evaluate the structural performance of these parallel systems, full-scale house testing commenced at the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) in the early 1980s with the static multipoint loading of an old house destined for demolition. Following that test program, nine full-scale houses were tested under static and cyclic loading to evaluate load paths in different types of houses with different building practices and materials. Results have been incorporated into amendments of house construction codes, standards, and manuals. Advances in computer modeling and instrumentation have led to more sophisticated full-scale studies. Data on real houses under construction have informed this work and enabled analytical models to incorporate variability in strength of connections in a way that a single test cannot. Progressive failure in the structural systems of timber-framed housing can now be studied to differentiate between houses that have significant damage and seemingly identical ones that have limited damage in the same wind event. These studies involve wind tunnel investigations to determine temporal pressure distributions; full-scale multiple tests on connections (with and without construction defects) to determine statistical distributions of strength and load/deflection relationships; and full-scale tests on houses or portions of houses to determine load sharing mechanisms between parallel structural and non-structural elements. The results of the test programs were used to calibrate the analytical models, which can be used for reliability studies. The paper presents a summary of the methodology and findings from previous CTS full-scale house tests. The results of the most recent research using full-scale tests on a portion of a house and its companion numerical models are discussed and the benefits and limitations of the process outlined.

}, doi = {10.3389/fbuil.2017.00021}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00021/full}, author = {Boughton, Geoffrey N. and Korah Parackal and Satheeskumar, N and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-3919, title = {Development of a predictive model for estimating forest surface fuel load in Australian eucalypt forests with LiDAR data}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {97}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {61-71}, chapter = {61}, abstract = {

Accurate description of forest surface fuel load is important for understanding bushfire behaviour and suppression difficulties, predicting ongoing fires for operational activities, assessing potential fire hazards and assisting in fuel hazard-reduction burns to reduce fire risks to the community and the environment. Bushfire related studies and current operational activities have a common challenge in quantifying fuels, since the fuel load varies across the landscape. This paper developed a predictive model that efficiently and accurately estimates quantities of surface fuel in Australian southeast Eucalypt forests. Model coefficients were determined through a three-step process that attempts to evaluate how the spatial variation in surface fuel load relates to litter-bed depth, fuel characteristics, topography and previous fire disturbance. First, the forest surface fuel depth-to-load relationship was established; second, key quantitative variables of environmental factors were added; and third, important qualitative variables of fuel characteristics were included. The verification of model prediction was conducted through leave-one-out cross-validation (CV). Light Detection and Ranging was used to quantify forest structural characteristics and terrain features. The calibrated model had a\ R2\ of 0.89 (RMSE\ =\ 20.7\ g) and performed better than the currently used surface fuel load models, including McArthur{\textquoteright}s (R2\ =\ 0.61 and\ RMSE\ =\ 39.6\ g) and Gilroy and Tran{\textquoteright}s (R2\ =\ 0.69 and\ RMSE\ =\ 36.5\ g) models. This study describes a novel approach to forest surface fuel load modelling using forest characteristics and environmental factors derived from LiDAR data through statistical analysis. The model established in this study can be used as an efficient approach to assist in forest fuel management and fire related operational activities.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304418}, author = {Chen, Yang and Xuan Zhou and Marta Yebra and Sarah Harris and Nigel Tapper} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4459, title = {Disaster in Relation to Attachment, Loss, Grief and Recovery: The Marysville Experience.}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis is a study of the post-2009 Black Saturday bushfire community of Marysville. The central research question asks: {\textquoteleft}How did survivors of the Marysville Black Saturday bushfire experience attachment, loss and grief in the post-fire recovery process?{\textquoteright} This informs two specific sub-questions, which are: {\textquoteleft}What were the experiences of Marysville residents in the aftermath of the fire, particularly regarding their sense of attachment, loss and grief?{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}What can we understand about attachment, loss and grief in disaster recovery from their experiences?{\textquoteright}

To answer these questions the research includes my own autoethnographic story utilising the technique of evocative autoethnography to which is integrated the technique of analytical autoethnography, thereby providing a thorough theoretical base for qualitative research and data collection. In addition to the autoethnographic research, further phenomenological and ethnographic data collection and analysis consisted of 18 formal in-depth interviews, 16 semi-formal interviews and 49 informal interviews (a total of 83 interviews), which accounted for about a third of the Marysville population at that time.

The research also involved extensive literature and document collection and review. Heuristic and naturalistic analyses were used to interpret and make sense of the information. Data collection concluded in late 2013; however, analysis, interpretation and member checking continued throughout the project. Findings emerged as two main themes, replete with examples, or illustrations.\ The two themes are:

1. Attachment: the importance of post-disaster attachment behaviour in relation to people, possessions, pets, place and participation (the five Ps) particularly as related to topophilia and solastalgia.\ 

2. Disempowerment: the post-disaster effect upon individuals and the community when they effectively have the ability to make their own decisions removed from them at both micro and macro levels.

Of central importance in this study is the identification of a post-disaster phenomenon I have conceptualised and named as {\textquoteleft}Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma{\textquoteright} (PDAT). This is a new revelation that describes a disruption to the natural processing of early attachment-related human loss and grief responses, particularly regarding initial appraisal and searching behaviours. It results in further trauma which may delay and complicate grieving and recovery for individuals and community alike.

When combined, the findings related to post-disaster attachment behaviour, topophilia, disempowerment, solastalgia and Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma make for a powerful description and compelling explanation of what many Marysville bushfire survivors have experienced.

The research findings make their contribution to knowledge by discovering and explaining elements of individual and collective post-disaster experiences, particularly the role of attachment behaviour in recovery. The findings have implications for individual and collective resilience, recovery and mental health. They will benefit policy makers, therapists, government agencies and non-government organisations in the way they assist post-disaster individuals and communities in the future.

This work is important because perhaps the lessons learned and knowledge gained will benefit future disaster survivors worldwide so they may not have to experience much of what the people of Marysville have struggled with since Black Saturday, 2009.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, communities, emergency management., fire impact, fire severity}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162288/Barton.pdf}, author = {David Barton} } @article {bnh-4197, title = {Disaster landscape attribution: annual report 2016-17}, number = {313}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the problem?

Monitoring bushfires requires timely information on their early detection, location, intensity and configuration. Their management requires timely information on fuel hazard condition and the efficacy of fuel reduction measures. This project seeks to use remote sensing to acquire this information at multiple spatial scales.

Why is it important?

By enhancing the timeliness and accuracy of observations and measurements of bushfire threatened and affected landscapes, our mitigation activities and response capacities are further strengthened. The provision of quantitative fire severity assessments informs the way in which we protect against the increasing threat of bushfire and inform our immediate to long-term recovery and rehabilitation efforts in response to bushfire events.

How are we going to solve it?

Our project is evaluating and validating current satellite based remote sensing options for active fire detection and surveillance. Using simulations and real world experiments we are determining the accuracy with which fires can be detected, their temperature and shape determined, for a range of landscapes. Our project is also creating new techniques and protocols for the rapid attribution of fire landscapes (pre- and post-fire). These techniques seek to add quantitative rigour to existing fuel hazard estimation practices.

How have we done?

This project brings together researchers from around the world including RMIT, the German Aerospace Agency DLR, CSIRO, the University of Twente in the Netherlands, Geoscience Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology. The project attributes fire landscapes using the latest satellite based thermal earth observation systems for active fire surveillance. Structure from Motion (SfM) and Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) technologies and techniques are used to quantify and map changes in the landscape before, and after, a fire event. This report provides a background to the project and discusses the key research questions being asked and describes the progress made. Key achievements over the last year are described and linked to research outputs and end user engagement and operations. The report concludes with activities planned for the year ahead and a list of currently integrated project members.

Highlights of 2016-2017 have included:

}, issn = {313}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace} } @article {bnh-4239, title = {Disaster risk reduction education in Indonesia: challenges and recommendations for scaling up}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {17}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, pages = {595-612}, chapter = {595}, abstract = {

This article investigates the implementation of disaster risk reduction education for children in Indonesia. In the last decade, education programmes related to this subject have been promoted as capable of reducing disaster losses and increasing resilience, based on several studies that have identified positive outcomes. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate and address any potential challenges that might impede their success. The article uses a case study in Jakarta, a rapidly growing megacity that is highly prone to disasters and natural hazards, especially floods and fires, to explore the scaling up and sustainability of disaster risk reduction in Indonesian schools. Based on previous studies, a new approach was developed for evaluating the implementation of education programmes related to these subjects. This study captured the perspectives of children, school personnel, and non-governmental organisations on the challenges of scaling up the implementation of disaster risk reduction education in schools. The study revealed seven key issues and suggests several policy recommendations to move forward. These key issues may also be apparent in many other developing and developed countries, and the suggested recommendations may well be applicable beyond Indonesia.

}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-595-2017}, url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/595/2017/}, author = {Avianto Amri and Deanne Bird and Kevin Ronan and Katharine Haynes and Briony Towers} } @conference {bnh-4044, title = {Disaster risk reduction education through the lens of postcolonial theory}, booktitle = {Network in Education for Sustainability Asia Conference 2017}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, publisher = {Network in Education for Sustainability Asia}, organization = {Network in Education for Sustainability Asia}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Knowledge saves lives. This is the premise to the Hyogo Framework for Action{\textquoteright}s (HFA) call to governments to integrate disaster risk reduction (DRR education in formal, informal, and non-formal channels of every country{\textquoteright}s education systems. There has been varying levels of responsiveness to this call at the policy level. At the school curriculum level, knowledge itself is a contentious subject. One camp espouses teaching on the scientific bases of disasters; another prefers to focus on the usefulness of indigenous knowledges. While knowledge is viewed as the key element for the practice of risk-minimisation behaviour, there are those who are less optimistic, regarding knowledge to have negligible impact to managing risk. Through a postcolonial lens, I reject the artificial compartmentalisation of knowledges (indigenous vs scientific; school-based vs community-based, etc.). My study looks at the context of education and learning and the construction of knowledge as a political, cultural and social affair. Its basic assumption is that learning happens in and outside the classroom, and the resultant {\textquoteleft}knowledges{\textquoteright} are tapped into differently for different purposes. The main objectives are to unpack the processes involved in the construction and perpetuation of DRR knowledge/s, highlight their intersections, overlaps, and disjoints, and examine their implications to the learning of disasters. An intimate, in-depth understanding of how learners in their communities make use of {\textquoteleft}knowledges{\textquoteright} in making sense of disasters is a valuable resource in informing policies on DRR education and governance at the local, state, and international levels.

}, url = {https://sites.google.com/site/efsasiantu/about-the-conference}, author = {Liberty Pascua} } @article {bnh-3380, title = {"Don{\textquoteright}t Just Do Something ... Stand There!" Emergency Responders{\textquoteright} Peri-Incident Perceptions of Animal Owners in Bushfire}, journal = {Frontiers in Veterinary Science}, volume = {4}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

Introduction

Narrowing the awareness-preparedness gap in bushfires (wildfires) means that new strategies and tactics will be needed to improve human safety and survival in this increasingly frequent and severe globally significant natural hazard. One way to do this is to explore the peri-event experiences of novel demographic groups living and working in at-risk areas to determine how best to strengthen a collaborative, mutually beneficial interface with emergency responders. Thus, this study included participants from one novel demographic, animal owners, in combination with emergency responders. Animal owners themselves are a large, diverse group whose preparedness and response behavior has not been assessed with respect to their potential contribution to contemporary natural hazard management.\ 

Method

Data was collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions from four emergency responder classifications who were asked about their perceptions of animal owners in bushfire. Thematic Analysis (TA) was used for data analysis because of its flexibility and suitability to this pragmatic qualitative study. Results from the first of ten themes, chosen for its {\textquoteleft}overview{\textquoteright} properties, are discussed in this paper, and indicate that exploring the animal owner {\textendash} emergency responder interface has the potential to generate useful additions to public policy, and expansion of social theory.\ 

Conclusion

Analysis of the data in this paper supports the potential for positive outcomes gained by reciprocal collaboration between animal owners and emergency responders. Some simple practical solutions are evident and two major outcome streams are identified. These are (1) policy development and implementation, and (2) etiology of decision-making. Considerations and recommendations for research examining the efficacy of these streams and solutions are provided.

}, doi = {10.3389/fvets.2017.00034}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fvets.2017.00034/abstract}, author = {Rachel Westcott and Kevin Ronan and Hillary Bambrick and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-4233, title = {Downscaling of soil dryness estimates: a short review}, number = {353}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Accurate and fine-scale landscape dryness estimation is critical for the management and timely warning of disasters like landscape fires, floods, heatwaves, landslips. It has application in environmental management, agriculture and other types of farming like livestock, and silviculture as well. In a fire danger context, the estimated landscape dryness is calculated for assessing the fuel availability. Though new techniques like remote sensing and land surface modelling provide accurate soil moisture information, it is at a relatively coarser scale than that is required for the above mentioned applications. A common practice to overcome such a problem is to employ downscaling methods to increase the spatial scale of the product. The downscaling approach can be broadly subdivided into deterministic and stochastic. The present study provide a brief review on some of these downscaling methods that are used to derive finer scale information from remote sensing or land surface model outputs. We also highlight some of the studies which has used the above methods for soil moisture applications. The discussion presented here is not intended to be complete and reflect authors{\textquoteright} interest. But we still hope that it helps to highlight some of the most commonly used downscaling approaches that are well known to the hydrological community.

}, issn = {353}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @article {bnh-3333, title = {Earthquake Scenario, Melbourne}, number = {242}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Despite its low seismic activity, Australia is more vulnerable to earthquakes than one would expect due to the concentration of population and the large stock of buildings which are structurally unable to withstand even moderate seismic shaking. This was demonstrated by the 1989 M5.6 Newcastle earthquake, one of the costliest natural disasters in Australia, despite its low magnitude. One question elicited by these circumstances is: what would happen if one of Australia{\textquoteright}s main cities were hit by an earthquake similar to the Newcastle earthquake? An example of a near miss is the 1954 M5.6 Adelaide earthquake, whose epicentre, far from developed areas at the time, would lie in densely developed areas were it to occur today. Providing realistic estimates for natural disaster scenarios is essential for emergency managers. A systematic approach to developing such scenarios can reveal blind spots and vulnerabilities in planning. Following the Adelaide Scenario delivered in 2015 we now look into a series of realistic disaster earthquake scenarios for the city of Melbourne.

}, issn = {242}, author = {Koschatzky, V and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Somerville, P} } @article {bnh-4209, title = {Economics of natural hazards: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {322}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

To make natural hazard mitigation efforts efficient and equitable, it is important to understand the full range of costs and benefits and how these costs and benefits are distributed among different segments of the community. However, economic assessments of flood mitigation benefits generally tend to be incomplete and focused on tangible and direct benefits only. Indirect and intangible costs are rarely included in this type of assessments. In reality,
intangible values can be large and, in some cases, they can be the most dominant component. The purpose of the Economics of Natural Hazards project is to address this shortcoming by, first, developing a Value Tool that help decision makers estimate intangible values and, second, by undertaking integrated economic modelling of mitigation options in ways that allow for the integration of intangible values. This annual report provides details on the Value
Tool developed by the project and the results from the first case study investigating flood mitigation options for the Brown Hill Keswick catchment of Adelaide. The report also summarises the projects engagement activities over\ the year.

}, issn = {322}, author = {David J Pannell and Atakelty Hailu and Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Fiona L Gibson} } @article {bnh-4042, title = {The effect of working on-call from home on salivary cortisol in fire and emergency service personnel}, journal = {Psychoneuroendocrinology}, volume = {83}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

On-call is an irregular work schedule allowing provision of 24-h services. Although it is purported that working on-call from home is stressful, little is known about impacts on stress physiology. This study aimed to (1) examine cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal cortisol profile in fire and emergency service workers following a night on-call with a call (NIGHT), a night on-call without a call (NO) and an off-call night (OFF) and (2) explore whether there is an anticipatory effect of working on-call from home (ON) compared to off-call (OFF) on diurnal cortisol profiles.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.psyneuen.2017.07.289}, url = {http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530(17)30934-4/abstract}, author = {Sarah J Hall and Brad Aisbett and Sam J Robertson and Sally Ferguson and Anne I. Turner} } @article {bnh-3821, title = {Effects of Oxygen Concentration on Radiation-Aided and Self-sustained Smoldering Combustion of Radiata Pine}, journal = {Energy \& Fuels}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Smoldering combustion is an important form of combustion in wildfires and hazard reduction burning because it plays vital roles in pollutant emission, fire re-ignition, and ecological impact. Smoldering combustion can be classified as either radiation-aided or self-sustained, depending on the nature of the reactions. The latter is often considered a more hazardous type of smoldering combustion, because it can persist for a long period of time and can transition into flaming combustion. However, there is a lack of understanding of the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smoldering combustion processes, especially regarding characterization. The aim of this study is to investigate and quantify the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smoldering combustion in biomass. Experiments were conducted using an infrared heat lamp to heat pulverize fuel samples in a reactor. The external energy input and oxygen concentration were controlled in order to achieve radiation-aided and self-sustained smoldering combustion. Radiation-aided and self-sustained smoldering combustion were quantified based on temperature measurements in the reactor, the analyses of product gases, and the mass change of the testing samples. Under the current experimental conditions, self-sustained smoldering can only be initiated when the oxygen concentration is between 10\% and 21\%; only radiation-aided smoldering combustion can be initiated in oxygen concentrations under 7.5\%; and no ignition occurs when the oxygen concentration is equal to or less than 5\%. From the temperature measurements, there is a linear relationship between oxygen concentration and smoldering velocity.

}, doi = {10.1021/acs.energyfuels.7b00646}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.7b00646}, author = {Wang, Houzhi and van Eyck, P. J. and Medwell, P. R. and Birzer, C. H. and Tian, Z. F. and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-5158, title = {Effects of podium interference on shear force distributions in tower walls supporting tall buildings}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {148}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

High rise constructions featuring a podium surrounding tower walls are often favoured for the versatile functionality of the building. It is shown in this paper that the podium can impose significant differential restraint on coupled tower walls. Incompatible tower wall displacements under lateral loads were found to be the main contributor to the generation of in-plane strutting forces in floors above and below the podium-tower interface level. Shear force localisations in the interior tower wall immediately above the interface was found to be the direct consequence of these actions. Key parameters contributing to this detrimental shear force localisation in a tower wall were analysed by way of parameter studies on representative models of the building and sub-assemblages. It is revealed that the in-plane rigid diaphragm assumption commonly adopted in practice can significantly suppress compatibility forces generated within the building floor leading to unconservative design of the tower walls. Elaborate nonlinear model has been examined to showcase the consequences of understating the shear demands on these walls.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.06.075}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029616305454?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Mehair Yacoubian and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna and John Wilson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6621, title = {Effects of prenatal bushfire stress on life history traits in humans}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, school = {Australian National University}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire effects, Stress}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/132117}, author = {Megan O{\textquoteright}Donnell} } @conference {bnh-3889, title = {Emergency management and policy: research impact and utilisation}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Emergency management is an important and curious sector. Important because of urgency, high stakes and public and political interest; curious because it deals with complex and difficult problems, and it constantly seeks and appreciates improved knowledge. Much discussed over the years has been the need for research to inform policy change (beyond management change), and how such research can be measured in terms of changing the policy settings that define and constrain emergency management. This is a complex matter, and difficult to answer simply.

This paper extends commentary by the author in a keynote address to the CRC/AFAC Research Forum 2012 on the interface of research, policy and politics. Can {\textquotedblleft}policy research{\textquotedblright} actually change policy and if so how? The paper does not seek to (and nor should it try) answer the question prescriptively, but explores the interface between research, policy, management and politics in four parts:

  1. Clarifying the relationships between management, policy and politics, and the institutional systems that define these, so that the targets of policy change are better understood.
  2. How different disciplines relate to policy: some with competence, directly and thus controversially; others less directly, with no inbuilt understanding of public policy and at a safe distance.
  3. Different forms of ultilisation of information in policy in the context of emergency management (direct, conceptual, political, etc), which are different and need to be understood as such.
  4. Policy hooks and windows {\textendash} the coincidence of knowledge and events (ie. great ideas wither in calm times; bad ideas take hold in a panic).

A summary checklist is presented, to guide research design and communication and to manage expectations. Clarity in this space is important for research design, and for increasing relevance to policy and management.

}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4156, title = {Emerging technologies for estimating fuel hazard}, number = {335}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The increasing risk of wildfire resulting from climate change has demanded an increase in information to support mitigation, response and recovery activities\ by fire management agencies. Subsequently, there is a need for an ongoing review of currently available and on-the-horizon information and technology.

Fire has important national significance as Australia faces ongoing\ environmental issues including loss of biodiversity, increasing urbanisation into bushland environments and increasing risks of wildfire. Fire regimes are an integral part of the ecosystem processes of Australian forests and a prominent disturbance factor. It affects successional rates of ecosystems, species diversity, can increase habitat fragmentation and alter landscape functioning.\ At the same time, fire is an important tool in management for ecosystem health and is frequently used for fuel hazard reduction.

Remote sensing data can assist fire management at three stages relative to fire occurrence including (i) Before the fire (fuel hazard measures, time since last burn) to assist fire prevention or minimisation activities, (ii) During the fire (near real-time detection and location of active fire areas and (iii) After the fire (mapping and assessment of burned areas).\ This report focuses on the use of sensing technology for generating a 3D representation of a feature or landscape. It examines the potential of emerging technology for measuring the structure and amount of vegetation within the landscape pre and post fire. Initial assessment of the sensing technology for mapping these environments is made based on the stage of maturity, sampling area, estimate accuracy and the expertise required to operate.

}, issn = {335}, author = {Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-5190, title = {Empowering remote Indigenous communities in natural disaster prone northern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters}, volume = {35}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {137-153}, chapter = {137}, abstract = {

Risks and challenges associated with recurring natural hazards (especially wet season cyclonic and flooding events; dry season extensive savanna fires) facing remote north Australian Indigenous communities are well recognised. Less well appreciated are longer-term challenges required for building community resilience in the face of responding to natural hazards. We report on detailed surveys of community perceptions of resilience undertaken in two communities, Ngukurr and Gunbalanya, in northern Australia. This assessment highlights the critical challenge for government authorities to effectively engage with remote communities. We then address the equally challenging Sangha et al.: Empowering Indigenous Communities in Northern Australia 138 issue of enhancing resilience through building enterprise opportunities. Currently, only few employment opportunities exist in either community. Based on experience with market-based savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement projects in north Australia, we illustrate the potential for ecosystem service-based enterprises to deliver culturally appropriate employment, which offers evident benefits for local communities in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from major natural disaster events.

}, url = {http://ijmed.org/articles/730/}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Sithole, B and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie and Cherry Daniels} } @conference {bnh-3892, title = {Enhanced estimation of background temperature for fire detection using new geostationary sensors}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Recent increases in the frequency and intensity of active fire has heightened the importance of remote sensing as a source of early warning information for fire incidents. The launches of new geostationary sensors, such as Himawari-8 over the Asia-Pacific, have vastly increased the information available with which to detect and attribute these incidents, with observations every 10 minutes possible over key parts of the electromagnetic spectrum (3.8 -- 4{\textmu}m). Remotely sensed fire products such as Sentinel Hotspots and the MODIS active fire product have focussed upon use of contextually derived background temperatures for isolating hotspots, dictated by the low temporal frequency of available images. This research proposes a new paradigm in fire detection, which utilises the increased temporal resolutions of geostationary sensor imagery to provide a baseline dataset for land surface temperature estimation based upon location and time of day. To achieve this, a multi-temporal diurnal characterisation of temperature is calculated for each pixel based upon a large area latitudinal transect. Hot spot anomalies are then identified based upon the deviation of the location{\textquoteright}s temperature from the expected diurnal cycle. Validation of the fire detection algorithm has focussed upon case study fires from the 2016/17 fire season, by way of inter-comparison with commonly used MODIS and VIIRS active fire products, and a burned area product. Results show increased capability for early fire detection using the new algorithm in comparison to traditional single image contextual algorithms employed for polar orbiting systems. Other advantages include notable resilience to sources of occlusion such as cloud and smoke. Further research will focus on the wider application of this method across the Australian continent and methods for countering more challenging detection conditions.

}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Chathura Wickramasinghe and Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-3886, title = {Enhancing team performance}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Effective teamwork is vital when managing emergencies.\  Emergencies can exert extreme pressures on emergency teams, their leaders and co-responders. These pressures sometimes cause breakdowns in teamwork that can lead to impaired operational response.\  This project helps to improve teamwork through better real-time identification and resolution of teamwork issues. To do this the project has developed two tools: the Emergency Management Breakdown Aide Memoire (EMBAM) and the Team Process Checklist (TPC). The tools{\textquoteright} flexibility and ease of use helps emergency managers to strengthen teamwork before, during and after emergencies. The tools can be used during training, in actual emergencies, and in after-action reviews. End-users have so far found the tools to be highly valuable.

}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Rainbird, Sophia and Owen, Christine and Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-4386, title = {Enhancing the resilience of critical road infrastructure: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {311}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the funded first stage, the project aimed to develop vulnerability models for critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bush fire and earthquakes. In the second stage of the project, optimized maintenance and strengthening regimes required to enhance resilience of critical road structures will be identified and a decision making tool will be developed.

During the past year, the research focused on analysis of the case studies available from end user partners and development of the methodology for vulnerability modeling of bridges and floodways under natural hazards of flood, earthquake and bushfires. Three case studies were analysed to further establish the methodology and a reliability based approach was established to account for the variability of the frequency and the intensity of disasters. A field study was undertaken to understand the economic impact due to failure of road structures during the 2011 and 2013 floods in the Lockyer Valley region in Queensland.

Three major workshops and a number of informal meetings were held during the past year with excellent participation of end users and researchers. A workshop has also been organized on 24 July 2017 to plan the work program for the second stage of the project and develop the utilization plan.

Six Ph.D candidates are progressing their research funded by APA, RMIT and IPRS scholarships. Three of the students secured CRC top up scholarships as well. One Master by research student completed in 2016 and one PhD will complete in 2017.\  Each of the four strands of the project has recruited a researcher to engage in the project and also utilized final year undergraduate projects to contribute to the research project.

Major outcomes during the past year can be summarized as development of the vulnerability modeling methodology for critical road structures exposed to extreme events and demonstration of the methodology using four case studies. This work has been published in number of journal papers and conferences and posters published in highly regarded journals and conferences. Members of the team also has been successful in winning awards for their work.\ 

}, issn = {311}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4629, title = {Estimating areal rainfall time series using input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {146}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards that can have severe socio-economic impacts and lead to a loss of life. Consequently, the key driver for this research is to provide techniques that will lead to an increase in flood forecast skill. As fluvial floods are a direct result of rainfall, detailed knowledge of uncertainties in rainfall observations provides a fundamental foundation for improving both rainfall and flood forecast skill. As the understanding of uncertainties present in rainfall time series is developed, so too will the confidence in rainfall forecasts, and short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. For a description of rainfall uncertainty to be complete it must take into account uncertainty when rainfall was not observed, thus allowing, model structural errors to be correctly identified, analyzed, and treated. Therefore the focus of this thesis is to develop a robust methodology to estimate rainfall time series and its uncertainty such that it is consistent with both streamflow and soil moisture observations. To effectively estimate rainfall time series, a method to reduce hydrological input data dimensionality was identified. The effective reduction of hydrological input data dimensionality allows modern parameter estimation algorithms to simultaneously estimate rainfall time series and model parameters. Due to their wide-spread use as model input data reduction techniques in other fields, the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) were used, for comparative purposes, to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438 catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. Once the time series were reduced to a small number of parameters, the rainfall time series were reconstructed for comparison with the observed hyetographs. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. Analysis of the results demonstrate that, when compared to the DCT, the DWT is superior at preserving both short- and long-term rainfall patterns. Second, the DWT was used to reduce the dimensionality of the input rainfall time x series for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The DREAM(ZS) sampling algorithm, in conjunction with a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow, was then used to estimate the input rainfall time series. Model parameters and rainfall time series were simultaneously estimated. The inclusion of rainfall in the estimation process improved the root mean square error (RMSE) of streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This was achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. Last, rainfall time series for the catchment of Warwick were estimated using three different rainfall-runoff models. Using the rainfall time series and model parameter estimates, remotely sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth observing system (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into each of the models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Through analysis of the innovations from the observed and simulated soil moisture it was found that the combination of model choice and remotely sensed soil moisture product had a significant impact on the quality of rainfall estimated. When compared to streamflow simulations obtained via the sole estimation of model parameters, all models that jointly estimated rainfall time series and model parameters produced superior streamflow estimates. Rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model were the most realistic. When the SMOS remotely sensed soil moisture product was assimilated into the SAC-SMA, innovations that indicated errors are of a Gaussian nature were obtained. Further, streamflow simulations obtained from the SAC-SMA had the best RMSE. The research presented in this thesis developed a methodology that can be used to estimate and evaluate rainfall estimates obtained using model input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation techniques. These rainfall estimates can be used to condition rainfall forecasts and consequently improve flood forecast skill.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, hydrology, modelling., rainfall}, url = {http://users.monash.edu.au/~jpwalker/theses/AshleyWright.pdf}, author = {Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-4626, title = {Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques}, journal = {AGU}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

}, keywords = {catchments, communities., Emergency management, Flood, rainfall, streamflow}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017WR020442}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @conference {bnh-3232, title = {Estimation of forest surface fuel load using airborne LiDAR data}, booktitle = {SPIE Remote Sensing}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {SPIE}, organization = {SPIE}, address = {Warsaw, Poland}, abstract = {

Accurately describing forest surface fuel load is significant for understanding bushfire behaviour and suppression difficulties, predicting ongoing fires for operational activities, as well as assessing potential fire hazards. In this study, the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data was used to estimate surface fuel load, due to its ability to provide threedimensional
information to quantify forest structural characteristics with high spatial accuracies. Firstly, the multilayered eucalypt forest vegetation was stratified by identifying the cut point of the mixture distribution of LiDAR point density through a non-parametric fitting strategy as well as derivative functions. Secondly, the LiDAR indices of heights, intensity, topography, and canopy density were extracted. Thirdly, these LiDAR indices, forest type and previous fire disturbances were then used to develop two predictive models to estimate surface fuel load through multiple regression analysis. Model 1 was developed based on LiDAR indices, which produced a R2 value of 0.63. Model 2 (R2 = 0.8) wasderived from LiDAR indices, forest type and previous fire disturbances. The accurate and consistent spatial variation in surface fuel load derived from both models could be used to assist fire authorities in guiding fire hazard-reduction burns and fire suppressions in the Upper Yarra Reservoir area, Victoria, Australia.

}, author = {Chen, Yang and Xuan Zhou and Marta Yebra and Sarah Harris and Nigel Tapper} } @article {bnh-4219, title = {Evaluation of daily soil moisture deficit used in Australian forest fire danger rating system}, number = {349}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The fuel availability estimates in McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index used in Australia for issuing\ operational fire warnings are partly based on soil moisture deficit, calculated as either the Keetch{\textendash}Byram Drought Index (KBDI) or Mount{\textquoteright}s Soil Dryness Index (SDI). These indices are essentially\ simple water balance models designed to estimate soil moisture depletion in the upper soil levels. In\ the present study, daily values of the above two indices are calculated over Australia at 0.05\ resolution from 1974 onwards. A detailed verification of these two models against in-situ soil moisture\ measurements from CosmOz, OzNet and OzFlux networks are performed. The validations are done\ using soil moisture observations that represent both surface and deeper soil moisture. The verifications\ for deeper soil are restricted to OzNet and OzFlux, as only these two networks provide corresponding to\ observations. The verification results show that both KBDI and SDI have relatively low skill in\ estimating shallow layer (0 {\textendash} approx. 30 cm) soil moisture compared to a much deeper soil profile (0 {\textendash} approx. 1m). The modest sensitivity of both KBDI and SDI to weather changes indicate that they are\ not an accurate measure for estimating duff layer soil moisture.

}, issn = {349}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-3900, title = {Evidence-based risk communication: an industry-academic research collaboration that enhanced dam release message effectiveness}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

In the past, intuition, experience, and anecdotal information have shaped the design of public risk communication and education campaigns, potentially limiting their effectiveness (Wood et al., 2012). However, collaborations between industry and academia better use and combine theory with practice and can generate evidence to support or counter intuitive thinking. This extended abstract outlines the research collaboration between Seqwater and QUT, which supported Seqwater{\textquoteright}s response to the Inspector-General for Emergency Management{\textquoteright}s (IGEM) review of dam release messaging.

In their 2015 Review of Seqwater and SunWater Warnings Communications, the Office of the Inspector General for Emergency Management (IGEM) identified the need for more effective communication from Seqwater and SunWater during natural hazards. Specifically, under Recommendation one {\textendash} Messaging, IGEM recommended that Seqwater and SunWater focus immediate attention and action on issues of collaboration with local disaster management groups, addressing information sharing, messaging responsibilities, terminology and timing (IGEM, 2015).

}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Sophie Walker and Aimee Tutticci and Dominique Greer and Paula Dootson and Cindy Hammill and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-3609, title = {Expanding protection motivation theory: investigating an application to animal owners and emergency responders in bushfire emergencies}, journal = {BMC Psychology}, volume = {5}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

Background

Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) was developed by Rogers in 1975, to describe how individuals are motivated to react in a self-protective way towards a perceived health threat. Rogers expected the use of PMT to diversify over time, which has proved true over four decades. The purpose of this paper is to explore how PMT can be used and expanded to inform and improve public safety strategies in natural hazards. As global climate change impacts on the Australian environment, natural hazards seem to be increasing in scale and frequency, and Emergency Services{\textquoteright} public education campaigns have necessarily escalated to keep pace with perceived public threat. Of concern, is that the awareness-preparedness gap in residents{\textquoteright} survival plans is narrowing disproportionately slowly compared to the magnitude of resources applied to rectify this trend. Practical applications of adaptable social theory could be used to help resolve this dilemma.

Discussion

PMT has been used to describe human behaviour in individuals, families, and the parent-child unit. It has been applied to floods in Europe and wildfire and earthquake in the United States. This paper seeks to determine if an application of PMT can be useful for achieving other-directed human protection across a novel demographic spectrum in natural hazards, specifically, animal owners and emergency responders in bushfire emergencies.

These groups could benefit from such an approach: owners to build and fortify their response- and self-efficacy, and to help translate knowledge into safer behaviour, and responders to gain a better understanding of a diverse demographic with animal ownership as its common denominator, and with whom they will be likely to engage in contemporary natural hazard management. Mutual collaboration between these groups could lead to a synergy of reciprocated response efficacy, and safer, less traumatic outcomes.

Summary

Emergency services{\textquoteright} community education programs have made significant progress over the last decade, but public safety remains suboptimal while the magnitude of the awareness-preparedness gap persists. This paper examines an expanded, other-directed application of PMT to expand and enhance safer mitigation and response behaviour strategies for communities threatened by bushfire, which may ultimately help save human life.

}, issn = {2050-7283}, doi = {10.1186/s40359-017-0182-3}, url = {https://bmcpsychology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40359-017-0182-3}, author = {Rachel Westcott and Kevin Ronan and Hillary Bambrick and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-4110, title = {Experiences of sheltering during the Black Saturday bushfires: Implications for policy and research}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {23}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {119-127}, chapter = {119}, abstract = {

More than half of those who died in the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, Australia, were sheltering inside a house at the time of their death. This marks a shift in bushfire fatality trends, which previously saw most fatalities occurring outside while residents attempted to protect assets or evacuate. This paper presents findings from research that examined people{\textquoteright}s experiences of sheltering in and exiting houses, sheds, personal shelters and other structures on Black Saturday. Qualitative data were sourced from 315 semi-structured interviews with residents affected by the bushfires and 50 witness statements presented to the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. Results indicate that despite limited planning and preparation specifically for sheltering on Black Saturday, many residents protected themselves from fire by sheltering inside houses, other structures and in open spaces. Most sheltered actively, engaging in regular monitoring and action to protect the shelter and occupants. However, some found sheltering challenging due to heat, smoke and responsibilities for children, vulnerable household members and the incapacitated. Misconceptions persist about the safety offered by houses and, in particular, bathrooms during bushfires. Education and advice should emphasise the need to plan and prepare for active sheltering, regardless of whether people intend to stay and defend or leave. The paper offers recommendations to promote planning and preparedness for active sheltering and identifies areas for further research.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.002}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091730050X$\#$!}, author = {J Whittaker and Blanchi, Raphaele and Katharine Haynes and Justin Leonard and Kimberley Opie} } @article {bnh-5075, title = {Exploring the circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia{\textemdash}1900{\textendash}2015 and the implications for policy and practice}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {76}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {165-176}, chapter = {165}, abstract = {

This paper documents the analysis of the circumstances surrounding fatalities due to flooding in Australia between 1900 and 2015. This longitudinal investigation is important to understand changing trends in social vulnerability and to inform efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies. The basis of this analysis was\ PerilAUS, Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database of historical natural hazard impacts in Australia. This data was augmented and verified using coronial inquest records which provide detailed data concerning the social, demographic and environmental circumstances of each fatality. A statistical analysis of the data was undertaken, examining demographics (age, gender), location (state), seasonality, circumstances surrounding the fatality,\ environmental factors\ (e.g. the event intensity) and social factors (e.g. the decisions or actions which led to death). Overall there have been 1859 fatalities identified, with distinct trends in relation to gender, age, activity and reason behind the activity. Flood deaths have been declining. The majority of the fatalities are male (79.3\%): however, since the 1960s the proportion of female to male fatalities has increased. Children and young adults (\<29years) make up the greatest proportion of the fatalities (53.8\% of cases where age is known). The highest proportions of fatalities occurred while victims attempted to cross a flood-impacted bridge or road. The recommendations for\ emergency management\ policy and practice are discussed, outlining the need for a new approach that accounts for a continuum of measures including regulation and incentive, education and structural intervention.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117301818}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Robin van den Honert and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @conference {bnh-3874, title = {Extreme weather: improved data products on bushfires, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and east coast lows}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Extreme weather events can cause a wide range of impacts on different regions throughout Australia, including costs associated with damage to natural and built environments. Effective disaster risk reduction, emergency response, infrastructure design/operation, planning and policy making all require data and information about how extreme events will change in the future.

New data products and information are currently being developed on bushfires, tropical cyclones, east coast lows and thunderstorms (including associated hazards such as extreme rainfall, winds, hail and lightning) by a project on extreme weather events in the National Environmental Science Programme \ (NESP: \ http://nespclimate.com.au/extreme-weather-projections/). \ This \ project addresses knowledge gaps on the past and future frequency and intensity of these phenomena, including the physical processes that influence the long-term variations in their characteristics, to \ produce \ practical \ tools \ and \ guidance \ products \ for \ use \ by \ planners \ and \ decision \ makers throughout Australia.

}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Harvey Ye and KJ Tory and Evans, Alex and Lavender, Sally and Thatcher, Marcus and Rafter, Tony and Osbrough, Stacey and Kevin Walsh and Cavicchia, Leone and Jason P. Evans and Catto, Jennifer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5457, title = {Factors influencing householder self-evacuation in two Australian bushfires}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis investigated householder self-evacuation decision-making during bushfires in the Perth and Adelaide Hills in 2014 and 2015. It explored the factors that influenced householders{\textquoteright} decisions to evacuate, identified factors that predict self-evacuation and established the characteristics of self-evacuators. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a conceptual framework for the research. Its theoretical and analytical usefulness in an Australian context, was assessed. A mixed methods research strategy was used involving quantitative telephone surveys of 457 bushfire-affected participants and face-to-face interviews of 109 participants in 59 households.\ 

The study concluded that environmental and social cues and warnings and householders{\textquoteright} perceptions of the threat, of hazard adjustments and of other stakeholders, influenced self-evacuation decision-making. Protective action perceptions, particularly the effectiveness of evacuating or not evacuating in protecting personal safety or property, were most important in predicting self-evacuation. Receipt of official warnings and the perception of likely impact of the bushfire on property were also important predictors. Undertaking long-run hazard adjustments, although not predictive of self-evacuation, was pivotal in shaping perceptions of the effectiveness of evacuating and remaining in protecting personal safety and property and indirectly influenced evacuation decisions. Seven archetypes that characterised householders{\textquoteright} self-evacuation attitudes and behaviour were identified. These included Threat, and Responsibility Deniers, Dependent, and Considered Evacuators, Community Guided and Experienced Independents all who took different decisional {\textquoteleft}rules of thumb{\textquoteright} and routes toward evacuating or remaining . The PADM needs to be split into two separate models to incorporate the influence of long-run hazard adjustments on protective action decision-making in an Australian bushfire.

The findings suggest that future research on those who wait and see during a bushfire should take account of their decisional rules of thumb and that design and targeting of Australian bushfire safety policy should better account for self-evacuator characteristics.\ 

}, keywords = {{\textquoteright}Dependent Evacuator{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteright}Wait and See{\textquoteright}, Archetypes, Bushfire, decision-making, Long-run hazard adjustment, PADM, Prediction Policy, Self-evacuation, Wildfire}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162093}, author = {Ken Strahan} } @article {bnh-3804, title = {Final report: seismic retrofit tests of URM cavity walls}, number = {249}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

University of Adelaide researchers were engaged by Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to undertake an experimental campaign aiming to identify and develop seismic retrofit methods for out-of-plane loaded cavity walls. The research is a part of a broader project titled "Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk". This report presents the details of the tested cavity walls, trialed retrofitted schemes, obtained results, and discussion. The report concludes with recommendations on the seismic retrofit of this type of wall construction.

A review of the masonry literature suggested that retrofit methods have already been developed and widely researched for solid unreinforced masonry (URM) walls, but that the methods cannot be readily applied to cavity walls due to the cyclic nature of the seismic loads and the limited access to the cavity gap. The methods generally require access to both faces of the wall to attach fiber-reinforced-polymer (FRP) strips to masonry.

The broad retrofit concept for cavity walls was conceived to be using NSM FRP technique on the exposed surfaces of the cavity wall skins, e.g. to one face of each wall skin, but with the provision that the wall ties be verified/upgraded to maintain the cavity gap. For this purpose, 6 different alternatives of cavity structure were investigated. Two options involved the use of standard wall metal ties with different densities. Two other options included the use of proprietary helical mechanical anchors with different densities, and finally two configurations of expanding foam was used to partly or wholly fill the cavity gap. All of the FRP strips were near-surface-mounted (NSM).

It was found that with NSM FRP retrofit, the existing wall ties may be sufficient to maintain cavity gap depending on the location of the wall in Australia. For walls in regions with relatively higher seismic hazard, helical anchors can be added, and the anchor spacing can be proportional to seismic hazard but need not be less than 260 mm, i.e. every 3rd course.

}, issn = {249}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Wade Lucas and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-4205, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spotfire dynamics - experimentation, modelling and simulation: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {312}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster.

The project has now been running for approximately 2.4 years. Phase 1 of the experimental program has now been completed and initial results are in the process of being published. Phase 2 of the experimental program is being considered. The project has continued to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights have broader implications for our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to address the role that fire line geometry plays in the dynamic propagation of wildfires. The project team has identified a number of circumstances where the curvature-based models that they previously developed do not provide accurate simulation. This included a number of the particular experimental scenarios considered in Phase 1 of the experimental program. However, coupled fire-atmosphere simulations provided a number of fundamental insights that motivated the development of more broadly applicable two-dimensional models.\  These new models are able to explain why the curvature-based models worked when they did, and are able to provide accurate predictions in a broader number of circumstances, including those for which the curvature-based models had failed. \ 

At this stage the project has published three journal papers and three conference papers. Three more journal papers and four more peer-reviewed conference papers are in the final stages of preparation. Several conference posters have also been produced. In addition, the project team has delivered a significant number of presentations to stakeholders and researchers

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is several months behind schedule. However, the project team is confident that all milestones will be successfully delivered along with a number of unscheduled, yet significant research outputs.

}, issn = {312}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-5083, title = {Fire-driven decline of endemic Allosyncarpia monsoon rainforests in Northern Australia}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, chapter = {481}, abstract = {

Although contemporary fire regimes in fire-prone Australian savannas are recognised as having major impacts on an array of biodiversity and environmental values, a number of studies have observed significant monsoon rainforest expansion in recent decades. Here we assess the status of a locally extensive endemic monsoon rainforest type, dominated by\ Allosyncarpiaternata\ (Myrtaceae), restricted to sandstone terrain including in the World Heritage property, Kakadu National Park. We undertook assessments of: (1) geographic correlates of\ Allosyncarpia\ forest distribution; (2) change in canopy cover at 40 representative forest patches at topographically exposed sites with reference to a 60-year aerial photo and fine-scale image archive, and fire mapping data; and (3) structural characteristics associated with sites exhibiting stable, contracting, and increasing canopy cover. Mean canopy cover at sampled forest patches declined by 9.5\% over the study period. Most canopy loss occurred at the most fire-susceptible patches. Assessment of structural characteristics at sampled sites illustrated that canopy expansion represented vegetative recovery rather than expansion de novo. The study (1) confirms the vulnerability of exposed margins of this forest type to fire incursions; (2) illustrates the magnitude of, and describes solutions for addressing, the regional conservation management challenge; and (3) serves as a reminder that, in savanna environments, severe fire regimes can substantially outweigh the woody growth-enhancing effects of other regional (e.g., increased rainfall) and global-scale (e.g., atmospheric CO2\ fertilisation) drivers.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120481}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/8/12/481}, author = {Jeremy Freeman and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @conference {bnh-3905, title = {First responder mental health: Fire and Rescue New South Wales experience}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, along with research into military populations, there has been strong interest in the mental health of first responders such as police, firefighters and paramedics, who are at risk of exposure to potentially traumatic events.\  For example, Harvey et al (2016) studied current and retired firefighters in NSW and found higher rates of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, depression, and alcohol misuse compared with the Australian adult population.\  Results also revealed that organisational strategies for support, treatment, and injury prevention could be enhanced.\  This research informed the development of FRNSW{\textquoteright}s strategic mental health framework including principles, policy and interventions.\  Furthermore, this framework reflects recommendations included in recent audits of emergency services{\textquoteright} mental health programs, for example Metropolitan Fire Brigade (Cotton, 2016), Victoria Police Service (Cotton, 2016), and the {\textquoteleft}Good practice framework for mental health{\textquoteright} developed by Beyond Blue in their study of first responder agencies in several Australian states and territories (Beyond Blue, 2016).

This paper reports on FRNSW{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}lifecycle{\textquoteright} approach to mental health care, which covers a firefighter and their family from recruit to post-retirement.\ \  This program builds on the existing and long-standing peer support program (in place since 1994), mental health literacy training, leader training, and initiatives to address stigma and barriers to care.\  Also covered will be an outline of programs developed with our partners at the Black Dog Institute, UNSW, and University of Sydney including a resilience program for recruits and incumbent firefighters.\ 

}, author = {Julie Pert} } @article {bnh-3795, title = {Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences}, volume = {17}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {1047-1059}, chapter = {1047}, abstract = {

The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth{\textendash}damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 \% mean absolute error), especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017}, url = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1047/2017/}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Mattia Amadio and Tuan Ngo and Jaroslav Mysiak} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5149, title = {Flood management in a changing climate}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {405}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

In 2010-2011 Australia experienced its most expensive floods in history with costs to insurers and state and federal governments exceeding A$10 billion. Climate and population changes are likely to increase future flood threats and economists estimate that by 2050, even without factoring in climate change, Australia{\textquoteright}s natural disaster damage bill could reach $33 billion per year. Flood management is thus a key area for improving adaptive capacity. While\ the causes of flooding are well-known, effective solutions have proved elusive and some flood management options may be maladaptive in the longer term. There were contradictions in flood management literature. Some sources categorized structural measures such as dykes and levees as adaptation measures. Others warned about their negative impacts. Meanwhile, innovative approaches used overseas appeared little known or used in Australia. Although structural measures were often criticized in adaptation literature, there was a lack of guidance about how to reduce reliance on them. Similarly, resilience researchers with a social-ecological systems perspective argued the need to identify policy and institutional interventions that would make it possible to move from undesirable to more desirable resilience domains. The challenge was therefore to determine how best to adapt to increasing flood risk, and how to facilitate the adoption of adaptive approaches. A key question was whether adaptive approaches used elsewhere were transferrable to Australia. Given the dominance of resilience theory in modern disaster management, a related research aim was to determine whether or not disaster resilience policy was likely to achieve adaptive outcomes. Literature review was the primary research method, supplemented with semi-structured interviews. Sources included recent flood reviews, academic literature, policy and legal documents. These were used to develop comparative case studies from China, The Netherlands, the United States and Australia. This was extended to cover global organizations for the resilience component of the work. Data analysis drew on literature relating to adaptation, resilience, comparative public policy, institutional theory and emergency management. Resilience interpretations were identified in a systematic way using a modified emergency management framework, complemented with narratives. Results revealed that resilience interpretations varied according to country, with Australia tending to be the least adaptive and the Netherlands the most. This reflects changes in attitudes towards structural mitigation. While support for structural mitigation remains strong in Australia, recent flood events in other countries have exposed its weaknesses. This has resulted in a shift to reduce levee dependency, accompanied by support for alternatives such as ecosystem based measures and development relocation. Such measures encounter significant barriers in Australia, making policy transfer problematic. Nevertheless, case studies revealed opportunities to improve program implementation, and investigation of path dependency associated with structural mitigation identified opportunities to alter feedbacks. Regarding application of resilience theory to disaster management, it was found that while resilience is a useful concept for researchers, there are problems when it is operationalised. A better focus for practitioners would be to negotiate long-term adaptation pathways.

}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/117237}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-4203, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation - systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {310}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2016-2017 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems. By undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across southern Australia, the project will provide critical support to agency decision makers across the region.

This report describes the project goals, methods and activities since the 2015-2016 Annual Report. The report focuses on initial results from a key project component: fire spread simulations in a range of case study landscapes throughout southern Australia. Results are presented in detail for case studies in East Central Victoria, Adelaide, the ACT and Hobart. This initial suite of simulations provides good evidence that there is substantial variation between case study landscapes in the response of key risks to different rates of prescribed burning. Further simulations in combination with other project methodologies will provide further evidence about this critical issue.

The report also details progress on data acquisition, empirical analyses and stakeholder engagement, which form the other key activities of the project to date. Finally, we are graetful to Naomi Stephens and Felipe Aires, our End User representatives from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, for providing an insight into the project{\textquoteright}s progress from a stakeholder perspective.

}, issn = {310}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-4389, title = {From research outcome to agency change: mapping a learning trajectory of opportunities and challenges}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

A key theme within the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC Cognitive Tools and Decision Making project is to understand how practitioners learn from research outcomes and how they can use them. Translatingresearch outcomes into practice is a complex process and can be beyond the control of the project team and end-user representatives. Using {\^O}lessons{\~O} terminology, it is suggested that observations and insights can be identified from reviewing research outcomes. However, the lessons that are derived from insights are only {\^O}learnt{\~O} when they instigate sustainable change (Commonwealth of Australia 2013). To create the best conditions for organisational learning a literature review of learning lessons in emergency management was conducted. Practitioners were also interviewed to understand the contexts and challenges faced in implementing research insights and in facilitating change. This paper presents two studies that examine aspects of organisational learning. In the first study, the challenges to learning from action and experience and from reflection and planning are examined. In the second study, the systems for learning used in emergency services organisations are considered and a preliminary theory of research utilisation maturity is proposed. The initiatives reported help to maximise the value of research and supports innovation through utilisation.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-19}, author = {Owen, Christine and Noreen Krusel and Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B} } @conference {bnh-3881, title = {From research to red tape - the challenges in implementing fit for duty programs amongst emergency management agencies}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Fit for duty programs are becoming increasingly prominent within the Australian and international emergency management sector. The physical fitness of workers in physically demanding roles is an important element within the broader occupational health and safety strategy. A growing body of evidence continues to mount on best-practice fit for duty practice. It is becoming increasingly apparent the value of robust methodologies and validation techniques to produce fit for duty tests which are legally defensible and specific to each organisation. However, despite increases in the knowledge of evidence-based strategies for fit for duty design and implementation, there remains a reluctance for organisations to utilise such knowledge. Here, we explore the reasons why such a reluctance exists and the current barriers to scientifically-backed fit for duty programs. Specifically, we explore the complications with the knowledge repositories, the effects of organisational structure, and the communication processes which currently exist between emergency management agencies and research bodies. Finally, we discuss the role of perceived organisational barriers, including: time, resources, capital, and obligations to meet ambiguous health and safety targets. With these issues explored, we expand on the role that individuals, departments and organisations can play in improving the utilization of fit for duty research. Concurrently, we critique the current limitations of research institutions and the dissemination of fit for duty knowledge. When all parties in the research continuum are properly aligned, organisations can implement fit for duty programs that will improve the health and safety of their workforce, assist with compliance obligations and boost workplace productivity.

}, author = {Savage, Robbie and Silk, Aaron and Walker, Cara and Larsen, Brianna} } @article {bnh-3355, title = {Futures Greater Adelaide 2050: An exploration of disaster risk and the future}, number = {243}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disaster risk is a combination of the natural hazard, exposure\ and vulnerability. As a result when considering future disaster risk and planning to minimise it, the uncertainty and complexity of each factor must be considered. Influencing factors on the three components of risk include political decisions, economic development, technological advancement, demographic changes and changing climate, many of which are mutually influential as well. The uncertainty and complexity that arise from these factors are critical to understand when considering long term disaster risk reduction planning, especially when planning decisions can have long lasting influence and large expense.

In an attempt to characterise, understand and subsequently make better decisions under these conditions the BNHCRC funded project {\textquotedblleft}Decision Support System (DSS) for Assessment of Policy \& Planning Investment Options for Optimal Natural Hazard Mitigation{\textquotedblright}, was initiated. For Greater Adelaide the project looks to develop an integrated spatial DSS to model long term changes in risk and subsequently assist decision makers plan and implement disaster risk reduction policies and investments.\  Incorporated with the development of the prototype software package is a facilitated stakeholder engagement process informing the development and then subsequent use of the system.

In September 2014 the first stage of this process was completed with results documented in Van Delden et al. (2015). The second phase, of which this report documents, incorporated the development of exploratory scenarios\ to better understand relevant uncertainties, develop strategic capacity in decision makers to consider uncertainties impacting on policies and provide a better understanding of the value and use of the developed DSS.

The process looked to discover critical elements relevant to disaster risk reduction\ and consider how they change into the future. As a method for exploring the future, scenarios were developed considering the changes from 2013 to 2050. Five alternate futures for Greater Adelaide were developed by members of SA{\textquoteright}s State Mitigation Advisory Group (SMAG), assisted by the scenarios team at the University of Adelaide and Research Institute for Knowledge Systems. These were subsequently modelled and results of the qualitative and quantitative scenarios will be presented in this report.

}, issn = {243}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Dandy and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Jeffrey Newman and Charles Newland} } @conference {bnh-3910, title = {Heatwaves in New South Wales: how are residents and businesses coping?}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Heatwaves are recognized as Australia{\textquoteright}s most deadly natural peril. During the summer 2016/2017, extreme heatwave conditions were experienced across New South Wales (NSW). Forecasts for heatwave conditions are provided by the BoM, and disseminated through traditional and online media, and by other agencies to communities. However, the full impacts of heatwave conditions and the ways in which these warnings are used by the public are not well understood. In this study, phone surveys of residents and business owners/operators were conducted following heatwaves in January and February 2017. These surveys explored how residents and businesses receive and monitor heatwave warnings, preparedness and protective measures taken, risk perceptions, and the impacts of the heatwave on the health and wellbeing of residents and staff, and on business activity. Initial findings show that communities recognise that temperatures are much hotter than previous years. Households are mainly coping with extreme heat by rescheduling outdoor activities, staying at home and running air conditioners and fans.\  In the main household members have experienced personal discomfort and poor sleep, however, a number of people have reported feeling unwell. Energy use and costs associated with preparedness and protective measures are key areas of concern to communities.

}, author = {Matalena Tofa and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-7289, title = {Household preparedness for bushfires: the role of residents{\textquoteright} engagement with information sources}, number = {604}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The following report shows that even after controlling for bushfire risk perceptions, people who access and engage with information sources are better prepared for bushfires than those who do not. The report notes, however, that the majority of people are not accessing information on how to prepare their household for bushfires, despite being at risk of this occurrence. Several key finding are summarised below.

}, keywords = {bushfires, household preparedness, information sources, resident engagement}, issn = {604}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero and Elle McIntosh} } @conference {bnh-3888, title = {How risk informs natural hazard management: a study of the interface between risk modelling and local government policies and procedures}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This extended abstract explores the use of risk modelling as a tool to support local government in New Zealand to better develop policy and procedure for natural hazard management.

New Zealand is an island nation in which events such as earthquake, volcanic activity, tsunami, flooding, storm, and landslide occur with sufficient intensity that substantial damage and loss of life results (King \& Bell, 2006). Given the severity of natural hazard risks, it is an increasingly important focus for national and local governance to ensure natural hazards are understood and managed effectively. However, local government understanding and management of natural hazard risk is fraught with challenges, including uncertainty over how they should be managed (LGNZ, 2014; Saunders et al., 2015), scarce data on natural hazards (Tonkin \& Taylor, 2016; MWH, 2016), and limited appreciation of natural hazard risks (LGNZ, 2014; Tonkin \& Taylor, 2016).\ 

}, author = {Miles Crawford} } @article {bnh-3595, title = {Identifying and resolving coordinated decision making breakdowns in emergency management}, journal = {International Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {13}, year = {2017}, month = {2017}, abstract = {

Effective coordination is an essential part of managing large-scale emergencies. It is important for key personnel in emergency management agencies to be able to identify and resolve breakdowns in coordination quickly and effectively. This paper focuses on how this is done by Australian regional coordinators. Eleven regional coordinators from three emergency management agencies in Australia participated in individual simulated table-top emergency management exercises involving a concurrent semi-structured interview. Results indicated that two breakdown identification strategies were used: internal (information and intuition-based) and external (network). Two breakdown resolution strategies were identified: response and preparedness. Five {\textquoteright}response{\textquoteright} resolution strategies were employed: delegating representatives, providing additional resources, asserting authority, mentoring staff and replacing disruptive staff. Two {\textquoteright}preparedness{\textquoteright} breakdown resolution strategies were employed: preplanning and building a cooperative culture. These results contribute to our understanding of how people identify and resolve breakdowns in coordination from the position of operational oversight.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2017.081198}, url = {http://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJEM.2017.081198}, author = {Grunwald, J and Christopher Bearman} } @conference {bnh-3873, title = {Identifying lessons from exercising and training for emergency management decision-making}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Decision-making is a skill that permeates every emergency event and every level of emergency and disaster management. \ The decision environment is often complex and uncertain, with challenging physiological contexts such as fatigue, and major consequence for poor decisions. This makes for a fertile ground for decision scholars, and significant opportunities to support the continual improvement of the management system. Emergency management organisations maintain, assess, and improve the quality of decisions in a number of ways. \ These include exercising teams in simulated emergency events and training focused on improving skills and knowledge.\ 

We report on a series of training and exercising related studies that specifically examined this area. \ Study One included observation and surveying participants following multiple exercises in a range of end-user organisations. \ Study Two included detailed analysis of the set of decisions made by a commander during a Search and Rescue deployment to evaluate the core skills utilised. Study Three involved a training intervention {\textendash} a one day decision- making course where participants were provided with both knowledge and tools to assist them in their decision-making.

Our results identify several consistent themes in terms of where participants perceive their organisations to be performing well, and several lessons are identified that can lead to improvements in decision-making. \ 

Finally, we describe how the BNHCRC Research project {\textquoteleft}Practical Decision- Tools for Improved Decision-making in Complex Situations{\textquoteright} is building and testing cognitive decision tools based on these results.\ 

}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Christopher Bearman and Owen, Christine} } @conference {bnh-3897, title = {Implementing CRC research: development of a tool for assessing post-fire hydrologic risk}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

An output of the Bushfire CRC was the development of methods for assessing post-fire hydrologic risks to human life, infrastructure, and water quality. The work was delivered as part of the Fire in the Landscape research theme and built on many years of research conducted by the Forest Hydrology research group at the University of Melbourne in collaboration with the Bushfire CRC, Melbourne Water and DELWP.

The Bushfire CRC project was identified for research utilisation by CRC end-users and a face-to-face meeting between end-users, researchers and AFAC research utilisation staff was arranged. The meeting resulted in the development of a three phase research utilisation plan. The first phase was a nationwide assessment of hydrologic risk related to wildfire and the development of a set of national guidelines based on general principles. This work was resourced by AFAC and delivered in 2014. Phase two was managed by ACT Parks and Conservation Service and aimed at advancing the generalised risk guidelines developed for AFAC and applying them to ACT catchments. This was completed in 2016 with the delivery of a suite of GIS tools that built on the algorithms that were developed for the Bushfire Rapid Risk Assessment Teams in Victoria.\  Additional research - phase three - could parameterise models for specific catchments, with the aim of delivering quantitative information on the probability and magnitude of post-fire erosion.

The project has generated some lessons about the research utilisation process:

  1. End-users must be clear about what they need and have a sound technical understanding of the research.
  2. All parties need to have a common picture of what is to be developed and how it is to be used.
  3. Researchers should be prepared to synthesise their work such that the complexity of processes does not impede the development of practical tools.
}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Petter Nyman and Noreen Krusel and Gary J. Sheridan and Neil Cooper} } @conference {bnh-3876, title = {Implementing disaster resilience policy in the Australian Federation}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Australia committed to reorienting its disaster management system to emphasise disaster prevention, preparedness and risk mitigation when it adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (NSDR). Since then the notion of resilience has penetrated the Australian disaster management system to the extent that many, if not most, disaster management activities are now described in terms of resilience.

While there is broad consensus about the necessary elements of disaster resilience policy, these have generally been expressed in Australia as high level and principles-based. To build a more disaster resilient nation, it is therefore important to understand not only what needs to be done, but how to do it within the context of Australia{\textquoteright}s federal system and its disaster management arrangements.

This research investigated implementation of disaster resilience policy in Australia from the perspective of Social Capital, Community Competence, Information and Communication and Economic Development {\textendash} policy domains identified as essential for creating community disaster resilience. A combination of literature study and empirical methods was used to examine if, and how, policy objectives linked to these domains underpin the implementation of disaster resilience activities at different levels of government and in the business and community sectors.

The results point to a general need to plan disaster resilience implementation more thoroughly, including ensuring it is better informed by evidence. In addition, consideration should be given to the opportunities and limitations on disaster resilience outcomes posed by the characteristics and policy mechanisms of Australia{\textquoteright}s \ federal system.

Furthermore, not only do relevant policy objectives for supporting disaster resilience need to be more carefully identified, selected and applied, but more attention needs to be given to the principle of subsidiarity to ensure successful implementation within our federal system.

}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-3600, title = {Implications of Volunteered Geographic Information for Disaster Management and GIScience: A More Complex World of Volunteered Geography}, journal = {Annals of the American Association of Geographers}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, pages = {1-15}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) refers to changing practices in recent years associated with technological advancements that provide increasing opportunities for private citizens to produce geographic information. VGI activities range from public contributions to online crowdsourced mapping projects to location-related posts on social media sites. These changing practices have important implications for citizens, traditional authoritative systems of geographic knowledge production, and the disciplines of geography and GIScience. One field affected by VGI is disaster management, with numerous studies reporting on the opportunities associated with increased citizen data and involvement in crisis response. There are also significant limitations to the application of VGI, however, notably related to scale, the digital divide, trust, uneven power relations, and adaptability of existing authoritative systems, such as formal emergency management. In this article, these issues and more are critically discussed through examination of three discreet yet related studies of VGI in community bushfire (wildfire) risk reduction in Australia. Although each study has its own unique contributions already published, the collective insight gained by analyzing the studies together provides new and deeper perspectives on critical issues of relevance to both disaster management policies and geography and GIScience. Importantly, the article advocates for greater emphasis on the social aspect of VGI, with citizens mapping and sharing knowledge together, rather than on individual observations and large volumes of data. Further, it raises questions of some of the much-promoted promises of VGI, particularly those that suggest that VGI can allow {\textquotedblleft}everyone{\textquotedblright} to contribute to geographic knowledge production.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1321979}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/24694452.2017.1321979?journalCode=raag21\&}, author = {Haworth, B} } @article {bnh-5043, title = {An improved approach to understanding the drivers of natural hazard risk, by considering social vulnerability and hazard likelihood}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

A natural hazard becomes a natural disaster when individuals, communities and infrastructure are\ impacted (Smith, Martin \& Cockings 2016). The economic and social repercussions of natural disasters\ create a need for improved approaches to reduce natural hazard risk. To enable this, a better\ understanding of what influences hazard risk, and how these drivers can be affected, is required. The\ conceptual framework proposed in this report presents a method to breakdown and understand\ natural hazard risk, for a non-specific hazard in a non-specific location. The framework incorporates\ hazard, exposure, vulnerability to evaluate current risk, and uses an exploratory scenario approach to\ evaluate future risk. This understanding enables decision makers to form long term plans to reduce\ natural hazard risk. A sensitivity analysis of the drivers of hazard risk has been included in the\ framework alongside mitigation to inform effective and targeted mitigation strategies.\ The conceptual framework was applied to a case study to understand the influence of Social\ Vulnerability on Hazard Risk by considering a bushfire hazard in Greater Adelaide. The case study\ application demonstrates how the framework can be used to make decisions in real world contexts\ and assesses the impact of mitigation on reducing hazard risk. The conceptual framework successfully\ identified the areas in Greater Adelaide with the highest Social Vulnerability and Bushfire Hazard\ Likelihood and assessed how these will change in the future. The implementation of certain mitigation\ and co-benefit policies positively impacted the Social Vulnerability and Hazard Risk in Greater\ Adelaide. Having demonstrated its utility, it is recommended that the conceptual framework be\ applied to other natural hazards, to better understand the influence of Social Vulnerability on Natural\ Hazard Risk.

}, author = {Molly O{\textquoteright}Callaghan and Evangeline Moore and Yasmin Zahr and Phillippa Radford} } @article {bnh-4207, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {321}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Decision support systems that contain integrated models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component for robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use, economics and climate.\ Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning for natural disaster risk reduction is being developed as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.\ 

The project consists of implementing an iterative development and use cycle across three different case studies. This development aspect of this cycle focuses on creating a generic framework for the integration of models to answer policy relevant questions, in this case for improved understanding and reduction of disaster risk. The use process tailors this framework to each of the case study regions, Greater Adelaide, Greater \& Peri-Urban Melbourne and Tasmania.\ 

The focus of 2016-2017 has been on the completion of the first development cycle for Greater Adelaide, with the prototype software to be delivered to end user organisations shortly. Training was also provided to users within the South Australian government and on-going support will be provided to this user group to enable uptake and use within respective departments.\ 

Work has also continued on the Greater \& Peri-urban Melbourne case study with significant process in the data collection and application of the DSS system to the region. Coupled with this has also been the use process of scenario development, with four scenarios for the region currently in draft form prior to follow up sessions in 17-18 to finalise the drafts, quantitatively model the scenarios and look to integrate the exploration of plausible futures to strategy development into organisations.

Similar progress in Tasmania has also been made with the land use model application completed and data collection for the hazard, and exposure modelling ongoing for completion of the first iteration of DSS development by the end of 2017. The participatory use process also saw multiple workshops take place in Tasmania throughout 16/17. These were centred on exploring uncertainties for change in the state, along with collecting data for multiple criteria analysis of risk reduction options, and defining optimisation questions for future analysis.

Other efforts have gone into the publication of journal papers, analysing the current state of literature in the field of decision support for risk reduction planning, and the calibration of land use modelling. Significant effort has also been placed into utilisation activities and exploring future application regions, resulting in a successful NDRP project proposal to apply the DSS in Western Australia.\ 

}, issn = {321}, author = {Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Charles Newland} } @article {bnh-4232, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: midterm report 2014-17}, number = {315}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report marks the end of the initially-approved 3{\textonehalf} years of the project. To\ mark that milestone, this annual report is much longer than previous annual\ reports, for it is also the final report of that initial part of the project, and as such\ contains detailed descriptions of the six main activities in the first 3{\textonehalf} years.

We have studied the dynamics, predictability and processes of severe weather, including fire weather, with the purpose of improving forecasts of severe weather and better depicting forecast uncertainty in these events, thereby facilitating better risk management and more cost-effective mitigation.

Two of the six main chapters of this report relate to our work with large-eddy modelling of turbulent plumes. We have used this technology, in which the model is run on a 50-m grid to capture the most energetic size range of the turbulent eddies, to both simulate ember transport and to model pyrocumulus formation. The mean travel distance of firebrands depends mainly on wind speed and fire intensity, but the spread in the landing positions shifts from being substantially cross-wind at light winds, to dominantly along-wind at high winds. This spread is greatly increased by the turbulence in the plume, and the maximum spotting distance can be more than double the mean for this reason.\ 

We have also used our plume modelling to study pyrocumulus clouds. We have analyzed the processes that lead to pyrocumulus, with special attention on the relative importance of moisture from two sources, the atmosphere and combustion, and shown that the latter is negligible except in very dry environments. This somewhat controversial result has been confirmed by a conceptual study of the thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation.

We have prepared three detailed studies of severe weather events. East coast lows are intense low-pressure systems that form over the sea adjacent to the east coast of Australia, most commonly along the New South Wales coast. We analyzed the 20-23 April 2015 event using, for the first time, an ensemble of 24 simulations rather than just a single forecast. The use of an ensemble allows us to better discern the degree of risk, and to account for the inherent uncertainty in any forecast. It also enables insight into the processes that lead to the rapid intensification of these systems.\ 

The Blue Mountains fires of October 2013 were most damaging on the 17th. This was expected to be a day of high fire risk, but the extreme fire spread was not anticipated and the causes were unknown. Our high resolution simulations showed that the downward extension of high upper-level winds to the vicinity of the fire ground, caused by mountain wave activity, was a factor. A dry slot {\textendash} that is, a long, relatively narrow band of dry air {\textendash} which moved over the fire, further contributed to the conditions.

Lastly, we have analyzed a simulation of a secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycle in a tropical cyclone, yielding better understanding of the underlying processes and the important factors in predicting these developments. Eyewall replacement cycles are associated with marked expansions of the tropical cyclone wind field, leading to a wider damage swath, earlier onset of damaging winds, and increased storm surge and wave damage.\ 

We are pleased that the project will continue for another three years. Our focus will shift to a greater emphasis on utilization activities during this period. In particular, we aim to develop simple methods of calculating ember transport and pyrocumulus development, so as to transfer the knowledge we have developed in these areas into operations. We will also continue to study severe weather events in detail.

}, issn = {315}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and W. Thurston and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and Ching, Eng and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-5068, title = {Improved treatment of non-stationary conditions and uncertainties in probabilistic models of storm wave climate}, journal = {Coastal Engineering}, volume = {127}, year = {2017}, month = {09-2017}, pages = {1-19}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

A framework is presented for the probabilistic modelling of non-stationary coastal storm event sequences. Such modelling is required to integrate seasonal, climatic and long-term non-stationarities into\ coastal erosion\ hazard assessments. The framework is applied to a study site on the East Australian Coast where storm waves are found to exhibit non-stationarities related to\ El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation\ (ENSO) and seasonality. The impact of\ ENSO\ is most prominent for storm wave direction, long term mean sea level (MSL) and the rate of storms, while seasonal non-stationarity is more ubiquitous, affecting the latter variables as well as storm wave height, duration, period and surge. The probabilistic framework herein separates the modelling of ENSO and seasonal non-stationarity in the storm\ wave properties\ from the modelling of their marginal distributions, using copulas. The advantage of this separation is that non-stationarities can be straightforwardly modelled in all storm wave variables, irrespective of whether parametric or non-parametric techniques are used to model their marginal distributions. Storm wave direction and steepness are modelled with non-parametric distributions whereas storm wave height, duration and surge are modelled parametrically using extreme value mixture distributions. The advantage of the extreme value mixture distributions, compared with the standard extreme value distribution for peaks-over-threshold data (Generalized Pareto), is that the statistical threshold becomes a model parameter instead of being fixed, and so uncertainties in the threshold can be straightforwardly integrated into the analysis. Robust quantification of uncertainties in the model predictions is crucial to support hazard applications, and herein uncertainties are quantified using a novel mixture of parametric percentile bootstrap and Bayesian techniques. Percentile bootstrap confidence intervals are shown to non-conservatively underestimate uncertainties in the extremes (e.g. 1\% annual exceedance probability wave heights), both in an idealized setting and in our application. The Bayesian approach is applied to the extreme value models to remedy this shortcoming. The modelling framework is applicable to any site where multivariate storm wave properties and timings are affected by seasonal, climatic and long-term non-stationarities, and can be used to account for such non-stationarities in coastal hazard assessments.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383916302861}, author = {Davies, G and David Callaghan and Uriah Gravois and Jiang, W and David Hanslow and Scott Nichol and Tom Baldock} } @conference {bnh-3903, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most important natural disasters in Australia.\  The average annual cost of floods in the last 40 years has been estimated to amount to $377 million, with the 2010-2011 Brisbane and South-East Queensland floods alone leading to $2.38 billion in economic damage, and 35 confirmed deaths. Flood forecasting systems are the most important tools to limit this damage, but are prone to a considerable degree of uncertainty.\ 

During the last decades, significant research focusing on the monitoring of the global water cycle through satellite remote sensing has been performed. The strength of remote sensing is the opportunity to provide information at large spatial scales, including areas that are difficult or impossible to monitor using on-ground techniques. For these reasons it is believed that the use of remote sensing data can improve the quality of operational flood forecasts.

Operational flood forecasting systems typically consist of a hydrologic model, which estimates the amount of water entering a river system, and a hydraulic model, which models the flow of water inside the river system. However, hydrological and hydraulic models are prone to a significant degree of uncertainty and error, caused by errors and uncertainties in the initial conditions, meteorological forcing data, topographic data, and model errors and/or oversimplification (Li et al., 2016; Grimaldi et al., 2016). In order to reduce this predictive uncertainty, we propose to constrain the models using remote sensing data. In particular, remotely sensed soil moisture data are being used to improve the hydrologic model results, while remotely sensed water levels and/or flood extent data can be used to support the hydraulic model implementation, calibration and real time constraint.

The project focusses on two test sites, the Clarence River in New South Wales and the Condamine-Balonne River in Queensland. Figure 1 shows an overview of these test sites.

Initial catchment soil moisture plays an important role in controlling runoff generation and infiltration processes, which consequently impact streamflow forecasting. Recent development in remote sensing techniques provide a new potential to monitor spatially distributed surface soil moisture. As a result, soil moisture assimilation for flood forecasting has been a hot research topic in the resent years. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used for soil moisture assimilation by the scientific and operational communities, due to its relatively satisfactory efficacy and efficiency. However, one of the challenge is that streamflow forecasts are calculated not only from current states, but also from antecedent states in many hydrologic models, while the EnKF updates the current states only, and so may not achieve an optimal performance. As an alternative, assimilation of surface soil moisture by the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) has been demonstrated to give better soil moisture reanalysis (Dunne et al., 2006). Nevertheless, the impact of the EnKS-based soil moisture assimilation on flood forecasting remains a research question.\ 

}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-4200, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data: annual report 2016-17}, number = {316}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was approximately $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The recent floods in 2016 resulted in three casualties with three more people missing. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7 that about 14,500 claims totaling $56 million have already been lodged from across the country. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems.

These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods, using observed and predicted rainfall. The hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that is flowing through the river network, while the hydraulic model converts this flow volume into river water levels/velocities and floodplain extents. Over recent times, the accuracy and reliability of these flood forecasting systems has significantly improved. However, it remains difficult to provide accurate flood warnings. This is because of errors and/or uncertainties in the model structure, the model parameters, and/or the meteorological forcings (mainly the rainfall). The hypothesis of this project is that remote sensing data can be used to improve modelled flood forecasts.

More specifically, in this project we are constraining the hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture values, as this variable determines the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. Further, we are constraining the hydraulic model using remotely sensed water levels and/or flood extents. Thus every time a remote sensing image becomes available, we correct the model predictions, which should lead to improved model forecasts of flow depth, extent and velocity for a number of days in the future.

}, issn = {316}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-4118, title = {Improving forest sampling strategies for assessment of fuel reduction burning}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {392}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {78-89}, chapter = {78}, abstract = {

Land managers\ typically make\ post hoc\ assessments of the effectiveness of fuel reduction burning (FRB), but often lack a rigorous sampling framework. A general, but untested, assumption is that variability in soil and fuel properties increases from small (\~{}1\ m) to large spatial scales (\~{}10{\textendash}100\ km). Based on a recently published field-based sampling scheme, we addressed the following questions: (i) How much variability is captured in measurements collected at different spatial scales? (ii) What is the optimal number of sampling plots required for statistically robust characterisation of burnt areas? (iii) How can land managers improve their assessment of the effectiveness of FRB? We found that measurement variability does not increase with scale for all fuel components. Results showed that\ coarse woody debris\ is as variable at the small scale (plot, m) as it is at the landscape scale (km). For certain fuel components, such as litter biomass (in unburnt areas),\ overstorey\ biomass and leaf area, and\ soil properties\ such as total carbon and total nitrogen, samples taken at the small (plot) scale were indicative of variation at the larger scale of an individual FRB and more broadly across the landscape.

We then tested the hypothesis that site stratification can reduce variability between sampling plots and as a consequence will reduce the required number of sampling plots. To test this hypothesis we used Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across areas treated with FRB and compared the number of sampling plots required to estimate mean fuel biomass with and without stratification. Stratification of burnt areas using remotely sensed vegetation indices reduced the number of sampling plots required. We provide a model of green biomass from Landsat NDVI and make recommendations on how sampling schemes can be improved for assessment of fuel reduction burning.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.03.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112716310751?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Malcolm Possell and Jenkins, Meaghan E. and Lai Fan Poon and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @conference {bnh-3891, title = {Improving resilience to storm surge hazards}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Winds, waves and tides associated with storms are capable of causing severe damage to coastal property and infrastructure. Locations that are prone to erosion and inundation first require an accurate assessment of risk before deciding the most cost effective mitigation option. This research aims to produce probabilistic assessments of the coastal erosion and inundation risks associated with storms, particularly for coincident or clustered events, thereby helping to strengthen the resilience of coastal communities.

Coastal erosion and inundation hazard is modelled in this study by simulations of realistic storm condition forcing (waves and tides) through a morphodynamic model to calculate return periods for maximum extent of shoreline retreat. This approach of estimating erosion return periods is superior to the assumption that the most energetic storm causes maximum erosion. The methodology is demonstrated at Old Bar, NSW, which us currently an erosion hotspot. The model will also be applied for the metropolitan Adelaide beaches. These sites were selected to test the methodology for a span of geographic conditions in terms of storm climate and deep-water wave exposure, working towards developing this method into a transportable framework applicable to other coastal areas. \ 

Desktop and field assessments of each site were conducted to document geomorphic and sediment characteristics to inform shoreline modelling. Having established the historical framework at each location, multivariate statistical analysis of wave (buoy or hindcast models) and tides for peak storm events has allowed for the synthesis of realistic future conditions. This complex sequencing of cycling between accretion and erosion incorporating cross-shore and alongshore sediment transport has been estimated using a probabilistic shoreline translation model. Here, model outputs for Old Bar are illustrated, which indicate a complex response over decadal time frames. Further work will then assess risk to infrastructure based on the most probable envelope of shoreline position. This information can then be used to inform coastal management strategies.\ 

}, author = {Uriah Gravois and Tom Baldock and David Callaghan and Davies, G and Jiang, W and Moore D and Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-4216, title = {Improving the resilience of housing to severe wind events: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {342}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe wind storms have typically shown that Australian houses built prior to the mid-1980s do not offer the same level of performance and protection during windstorms as houses constructed to contemporary building standards. Given that these older houses will represent the bulk of the housing stock for many decades, practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research will make a significant improvement to housing performance and to the economic and social well-being of the community.

Structural retrofitting details exist for some forms of legacy housing but the uptake of these details is limited. There is also evidence that retrofitting details are not being included into houses requiring major repairs following severe storm events, thus missing the ideal opportunity to improve resilience of the house and community. Hence, the issues of retrofitting legacy housing, including feasibility and hindrances on take-up, etc., must be analysed.

The primary objective of this research is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia. \ These evidence-based strategies will be (a) tailored to aid policy formulation and decision making in government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the building community for retrofitting typical at-risk houses in Australian communities. Specific task items include:

}, issn = {342}, author = {David Henderson and Daniel Smith and John Ginger and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @conference {bnh-3880, title = {Including the intangible benefits of bushfire mitigation in economic analyses: a {\textquoteright}value tool{\textquoteright} for informed decision making}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Understanding the costs and benefits of bushfire mitigation is imperative for governments to be able to prioritise the strategies that provide the best value for money. The economic damages caused by bushfires and the costs of mitigation are relatively well documented and can be large. But the social and environmental benefits of bushfire mitigation, which can potentially be even larger, have not been well documented. As a result, these types of intangible benefits are often neglected in decision making. We have created a {\textquoteleft}value tool{\textquoteright} that makes information about these intangible benefits accessible to decision makers for use in economic studies such as benefit-cost analyses.

The value tool identifies the types of intangible values that might be affected by bushfires or their mitigation, in terms of health, environmental and social effects. We have compiled a database of different studies that have measured these values in dollar terms reflecting how much they are worth to the community. This means they can be directly compared with other monetary estimates of costs and benefits related to bushfire mitigation. The database comes with a set of user-friendly guidelines that illustrate how the intangible values can be used to make decisions and prioritise bushfire mitigation strategies. For example, a bushfire manager will be able to use the value tool to identify the types of intangible values that might be affected by a prescribed burning plan, such as protecting wildlife and minimising distress to local communities, and find dollar estimates for each of these values. The value tool also provides estimates of intangible values relevant to other types of natural hazards.

}, author = {Abbie Rogers and Fiona L Gibson and Veronique Florec and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-4241, title = {Increasing residents{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {343}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project addresses the following problem statements: 1) what measures can best be used to capture individuals{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards?, 2) how effective are traditional strategies, such as community engagement groups vs. brochures vs. websites vs. advertising in increasing preparedness and planning by residents of hazard prone areas?, and 3) what are some of the key barriers and motivators for residents{\textquoteright} engagement with disaster resilience building activities, and how can strategies be improved to increase preparedness for natural hazards? All problem statements are being addressed within the context of bushfires and floods.

Over the past 12 months, this project has undertaken the following:

}, issn = {343}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero} } @article {bnh-3923, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, number = {340}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A recent analysis of flood fatalities in Australia identified that 49 percent of flood fatalities were vehicle related (Haynes et al., 2017). In total, some 229 flood fatalities were associated with vehicles between 1960 and 2015 (Haynes et al., 2017).

There has been some effort in recent years to address this issue through educational campaigns. There has, however, been no previous research into how the characteristics of roadways influence the decisions taken, possibility of a vehicle being washed off a roadway and the survivability of people in vehicles that enter floodwater.

This research report outlines research to determine the influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities including road structure type; roadway side barriers; downstream depths adjacent to the roadway; signage; warning systems; lighting; road pavement; road alignment; road grade; speed restrictions; traffic volume; downstream vegetation; ability for a vehicle to be turned around prior to crossing the floodway, causeway or bridge and presence of road side markers and curb and guttering.

The results of this research indicate some road characteristics that are common among sites where motorists have entered floodwaters and fatalities have occurred. These characteristics variously influence the risk that motorists knowingly or unknowingly enter floodwater, the ability of motorists to turn around upon seeing floodwaters, and the likely survivability of entering floodwaters. It is necessary to consider the influence of different road characteristics on the risks posed to motorists during floods. Observations are also made regarding the need to consider the role of road side barricades in increasing safety and to review signage to ensure it is clear and can be readily interpreted.

}, issn = {340}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Matalena Tofa and S. Opper and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-5155, title = {In-situ seismic verification of non-structural components of unreinforced masonry buildings}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {19}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

An experimental campaign was developed to evaluate the response of non-structural elements of unreinforced masonry buildings for simulated earthquake loads. Eleven walls within 4 URM properties were subjected,\ in situ, to uniformly distribute static loads applied using a system of airbags. The buildings were located in Darlington, a suburb of Adelaide, South Australia. Three of them were built in the 1960s and the fourth was built in the 1980s. Accompanying material tests were done\ in situ\ and in the laboratory, enabling a comparison to be made between the old buildings material strength and the default material strengths recommended in the Australian Masonry Standards, AS3700. Tests were also conducted on 3 URM chimneys to establish their failure mechanism and strength. A highlight of this research is\ the findings that existing masonry\ chimneys are vulnerable to a {\textquoteleft}design earthquake{\textquoteright} in Australia. The results also suggest that despite masonry material strength being significantly lower than the code default values, the walls satisfied expected seismic force demands. The reasons include\ the beneficial effects of\ in situ\ wall boundary conditions on out-of-plane wall strength.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2017.1370963}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2017.1370963?journalCode=tsen20}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Wade Lucas and Michael Griffith} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5167, title = {Integrated response as a process for enhancing the incident command system}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, school = {University of Canterbury}, abstract = {

The devastating societal impacts of disruptive events have emphasised the need for more effective and unified emergency response arrangements. While policies that guide strategies, measures or approaches are not lacking in the emergency sector, they tend to be inadequate for response and relatively ineffective during response to large-scale or unprecedented events. This research critically examines theoretical bases and practice systems for emergency response, in order to identify useful community functions which can be integrated with emergency management response. The aim is to develop an integrated response framework that can be adopted to improve response to disruptive events.

The data for this research were gathered through case study analyses of communities in Christchurch, which provided context for and helped define the scope of community functions required for emergency response. Data were also collected in semi-structured interviews and focus group sessions with different community groups and organisations, emergency management professionals, and officials working in Christchurch City Council.

The analysis indicates that relevant functions exist within communities, and that four types of community functions can be used for improving emergency management response. Community functions identified were seen to possess relationships, interactions and qualities lacking in the emergency sector; characteristics that are essential for operational command and control response processes. The major research outcome is the development of a framework that integrates community functions with command and control structure as a contribution to improving response to disruptive events.

}, url = {https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/handle/10092/13418}, author = {Dolapo Fakuade} } @article {bnh-4400, title = {Integrating intangible values in economic analyses of flood mitigation: a case study of the Brown Hill and Keswick creeks catchment in Adelaide}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, abstract = {

This study undertakes an economic analysis of flood mitigation options for a high flood-risk catchment in Adelaide. To date, economic analyses have focused primarily on estimating the tangible (market) costs and benefits of mitigation strategies and have largely ignored the intangible (non-market) costs and benefits. This analysis improves upon previous studies by conducting a benefit-cost analysis that incorporates the intangible costs and benefits of mitigation. The benefit transfer method was used to include intangible values in the analysis. It was found that, for this particular case study, the inclusion of intangible values does not change the attractiveness of the mitigation options evaluated and the benefit-cost ratios remain below one.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-17}, author = {Veronique Florec and Morteza Chalak and Atakelty Hailu} } @article {bnh-4234, title = {Integrating non-market values in economic analyses of flood mitigation: a case study of the Brown Hill and Keswick creeks catchment in Adelaide}, number = {354}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study undertakes an economic analysis of flood mitigation options for a high flood risk catchment in Adelaide, South Australia: the Brown Hill and Keswick creeks catchment. Several proposals for flood mitigation investments have been presented, including creek capacity upgrades, high flow bypass culverts and detention dams. For flood managers to know which option or options provide the best value for money, it is necessary to compare the costs and the benefits of all available options. To date, economic analyses have focused primarily on estimating the tangible (market) costs and benefits of mitigation strategies, but have largely ignored the intangible (non-market) costs and benefits. This analysis improves upon previous studies by conducting a cost benefit analysis that incorporates the intangible costs and benefits of mitigation. We used the benefit transfer method to include eight different intangible values that can be affected by floods or by the implementation of the proposed mitigation options. We found that for this particular case study in the Brown Hill and Keswick creeks catchment, the inclusion of intangible values does not change the results of the analysis significantly; the results with and without intangibles are relatively similar. This is because intangible values are relatively small compared to the potential tangible flood damages as intangible value losses represent only between 6 and 21\% of total damages. In order to better understand people{\textquoteright}s preferences and the trade-offs they make, a survey based nonmarket valuation research would need to be conducted amongst the residents at risk of flooding. Such a study would provide values that are specific to the catchment and could be compared with the intangible values from the literature that have been assembled for this study.

}, issn = {354}, author = {Morteza Chalak and Veronique Florec and Atakelty Hailu and Fiona L Gibson and David J Pannell} } @conference {bnh-3912, title = {The interaction between firefighting boot design and lower body injury risk at work}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

When responding to emergency operations, firefighters must wear a range of personal protective clothing (PPC) and equipment (PPE) to maintain their safety. Indeed, in some environments, such as those where high heat and smoke exist self-contained breathing apparatus{\textquoteright} (SCBA) and structural clothing ensembles are vital to a firefighters{\textquoteright} ability to undertake work. When PPC and PPE are combined, the weight added to the ambulating individual can exceed 23kg in addition to tools or equipment required to complete any given work task. When at work, firefighters are tasked with occupation specific, repetitive movement patterns that can include climbing stairs, alighting from fire appliances and negotiating obstacles. It is therefore likely that, when combined with the requirement to carry significant loads, the repetitive nature may be predisposing firefighters to significant repeated loading, which may lead to increased risk of developing chronic injuries.

For firefighters to work safely in hot and unstable terrain, in addition to firefighting PPE, they wear structural firefighting boots (referred to as Type 2). Boots in this category are required to have protection against penetration and heat, along with toe protection in the form of hard toe caps. These design requirements, while providing necessary thermal and impact protection, add weight while concurrently reducing the flexibility of the boot. Another significant design requirement is that a boot-shaft that terminates above the line of the ankle joint, to increase stability and reduce the incidence of ankle injuries and provide firefighting specific protection. Specifically, boot design standards (ISO) require boots to have a minimum shaft height. For example, for size 45 boots and above, a shaft no shorter than 192mm is needed.

During landing movements, such as alighting from a fire appliance, ground reaction forces (GRFs) are transferred from the distal to the proximal extremities. Specifically during landing, forces are absorbed and dissipated through the ankle, knee and then hip-joint in sequence. This is generally referred to as the kinetic chain and alterations to this will change the body{\textquoteright}s natural ability to attenuate forces. When landing without restriction to the ankle joint, such as when barefoot, the foot is generally in plantar flexion (toe down). When the ankle is restricted, thus not allowing for plantar flexion on landing, a heel-toe landing (HTL) technique occurs. A HTL landing pattern has been associated with greater vertical GRFs. This then results in increased compressive forces in the soft tissue and joints surrounding the hip and knee joints. It is widely believed that chronic exposure to such forces may lead to lumbar instabilities resulting in lower lumbar and lower body injuries.

Soft tissue injuries, both acute and chronic, in the lower body and lower lumbar region of the spine are reported as being the leading cause of disability and early retirement in firefighters. Thus, it is intuitive to expect that, in addition to work specific movement patterns, an interaction between boot design and injury may be occurring. In research undertaken into non-firefighting boots, such as ski-boots and ice-skates, which share common design features at the ankle joint, reduced range of motion has been observed at both the ankle and the knee joint. As such, we hypothesised that firefighting boots with designs that restrict the ankle joints may elicit similar reductions in range of motion in firefighters when they complete landing tasks. Furthermore, as a consequence, boots may increase the risk of suffering an injury to the lower body or lumbar region as a result of alterations to the kinetic chain. \ 

}, author = {Anthony Walker and Vy Vu and Wayne Spratford} } @article {bnh-5074, title = {Investigating surface and near-surface bushfire fuel attributes: a comparison between visual assessments and image-based point clouds}, journal = {Sensors}, volume = {17}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, chapter = {910}, abstract = {

Visual assessment, following guides such as the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide (OFHAG), is a common approach for assessing the structure and hazard of varying bushfire fuel layers. Visual assessments can be vulnerable to imprecision due to subjectivity between assessors, while emerging techniques such as image-based point clouds can offer land managers potentially more repeatable descriptions of fuel structure. This study compared the variability of estimates of surface and near-surface fuel attributes generated by eight assessment teams using the OFHAG and Fuels3D, a smartphone method utilising image-based point clouds, within three assessment plots in an Australian lowland forest. Surface fuel hazard scores derived from underpinning attributes were also assessed. Overall, this study found considerable variability between teams on most visually assessed variables, resulting in inconsistent hazard scores. Variability was observed within point cloud estimates but was, however, on average two to eight times less than that seen in visual estimates, indicating greater consistency and repeatability of this method. It is proposed that while variability within the Fuels3D method may be overcome through improved methods and equipment, inconsistencies in the OFHAG are likely due to the inherent subjectivity between assessors, which may be more difficult to overcome. This study demonstrates the capability of the Fuels3D method to efficiently and consistently collect data on fuel hazard and structure, and, as such, this method shows potential for use in fire management practices where accurate and reliable data is essential.

}, doi = {https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s17040910}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5426834/}, author = {Christine Spits and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-5183, title = {Investigation of firebrand generation from an experimental fire: development of a reliable data collection methodology}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {91}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {864-871}, chapter = {864}, abstract = {

An experimental approach has been developed to quantify the characteristics and flux of firebrands during a management-scale wildfire in a pine-dominated\ ecosystem. By characterizing the local fire behavior and measuring the temporal and\ spatial variation\ in firebrand collection, the flux of firebrands has been related to the fire behavior for the first time. This linkage is seen as the first step in risk mitigation at the wildland urban interface (WUI). Data analyses allowed the evaluation of firebrand flux with respect to observed fire intensities for this ecosystem. Typical firebrand fluxes of 0.82{\textendash}1.36pcsm-2s-1\ were observed for fire intensities ranging between 7.35{\textpm}3.48MWm-1\ to 12.59{\textpm}5.87MWm-1. The experimental approach is shown to provide consistent experimental data, with small variations within the firebrand collection area. Particle size distributions show that\ small particles\ of area 0.75{\textendash}5{\texttimes}10-5m2\ are the most abundant (0.6{\textendash}1pcsm-2s-1), with the total flux of particles \>5{\texttimes}10-5m2\ equal to 0.2{\textendash}0.3 pcsm-2s-1. The experimental method and the data gathered show substantial promise for future investigation and\ quantification\ of firebrand generation and consequently a better description of the firebrand risk at the WUI.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2017.04.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711217301819?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Jan Thomas and Eric Mueller and Simon Santamaria and Michael Gallagher and Mohamad El Houssami and Alex Filkov and Kenneth Clark and Nicholas Skowronski and Rory M Hadden and William Mell and Albert Simeoni} } @article {bnh-5140, title = {Investigation of firebrand production during prescribed fires conducted in a pine forest}, journal = {Proceedings of the Combustion Institute}, volume = {36}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {3270}, chapter = {3263}, abstract = {

This paper represents a study on the characterization of firebrand production which was carried out, using experimental fires conducted as prescribed fires in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, USA in March of 2013{\textendash}2015. Several preliminary techniques were tested to characterize the firebrand production. Firebrands were collected from three plots for each year and analyzed for mass and size distribution. Thermal imagery was used to measure the velocity, size and number of firebrands in 2014 and 2015. The distribution of firebrands was evaluated in a monitored volume during the experiment. It was found that not less than 70\% of collected particles were bark fragments and the rest were pine and shrub branches. The number of firebrands decreases with increasing the cross section area of firebrands. The mass of the particles varied from 5 to 50mg, and the maximum number of the particles was observed for the mass range of 10{\textendash}20mg. About 80\% of firebrands were particles with the cross section area of (5{\textendash}20) {\texttimes} 10-5\ m2. These results are consistent with the available observations of real fires\ [1],\ [2]. Processing of infrared video showed that starting from a distance of 13m from fire front, an increasing number of firebrands were observed in a controlled volume, increasing in number up to 180 per second. Relationships describing the time-variation of the number of particles that dropped on a 1.4m2\ surface and the number of particles that flew through a 1m3\ volume were obtained. Comparing the experimental and calculated data, we can conclude that these relationships allow us to describe the two numbers with an acceptable accuracy (adj. R2\ 0.74 and 0.86, respectively). In addition, the velocity of the particles, which depended on the wind velocity, was in the 0.1{\textendash}10.5m/s range, with an average value of 2.5m/s.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2016.06.125}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1540748916301833$\#$!}, author = {Alex Filkov and Sergey Prohanov and Eric Mueller and D. P. Kasymov and Pavel Martynov and Mohamad El Houssami and Jan Thomas and Nicholas Skowronski and Bret Butler and Michael Gallagher and Kenneth Clark and William Mell and Robert Kremens and Rory M. Madden and Albert Simeoni} } @article {bnh-6927, title = {JASMIN: A prototype high resolution soil moisture analysis system for Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bureau of Meterology}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Accurate soil dryness information is essential for the calculation of accurate fire danger ratings, fire behavior prediction, flood forecasting and landslip warnings. Soil dryness also strongly influences temperatures and heatwave development by controlling the partitioning of net surface radiation into sensible, latent and ground heat fluxes. Rainfall forecasts are crucial for many applications and many studies suggest that soil dryness can significantly influence rainfall. Currently, soil dryness for fire danger prediction in Australia is estimated using very simple water balance models developed in the 1960s that ignore many important factors such as incident solar radiation, soil types, vegetation height and root depth. This work presents a prototype high resolution soil moisture analysis system based around the Joint UK Land Environment System (JULES) land surface model. This prototype system is called the JULES based Australian Soil Moisture INformation (JASMIN) system. The JASMIN system can include data from many sources; such as surface observations of rainfall, temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, surface pressure as well as satellite derived measurements of rainfall, surface soil moisture, downward surface short-wave radiation, skin temperature, leaf area index and tree heights. The JASMIN system estimates soil moisture on four soil layers over the top 3 meters of soil, the surface layer has a thickness of 10 cm. The system takes into account the effect of different vegetation types, root depth, stomatal resistance and spatially varying soil texture. The analysis system has a one hour time-step with daily updating. For the surface soil layer, verification against ground based soil moisture observations from the OzNet, CosmOz and OzFlux networks shows that the JASMIN system is significantly more accurate than other soil moisture analysis system used at the Bureau of Meteorology. For the root-zone, the JASMIN system has similar skill to other commonly used soil moisture analysis systems. The Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) verification method also confirms the high skill of the JASMIN system.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, fire danger ratings, flood forecast, soil dryness}, issn = { Bureau Research Report {\textendash} BRR026}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-026.pdf}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar} } @article {bnh-3918, title = {Kinetics of pyrolysis of litter materials from pine and eucalyptus forests}, journal = {Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, abstract = {

Wildfires are an integral feature of the Australian continent. To estimate the rate of spread of wildfires using computational models it is important to know the kinetic parameters of the materials that constitute the fuel load in forests. These kinetic parameters are utilised in pyrolysis and combustion sub-models of a computational model. In the present work, the kinetics of pyrolysis of timber and litter materials (consisting of bark, twigs, and leaves) from\ Pinus radiata\ and\ Eucalyptus obliqua\ subsp.\ messmate\ forests were estimated under nitrogen. The activation energy for the pyrolysis of timber was found to be independent of conversion, whereas it varied for the litter materials in the range of the pyrolysis temperatures employed. Furthermore, the parameters pertaining to a single equivalent reaction model were also identified. For the samples studied, the most suitable reaction model was identified as the Johnson{\textendash}Mehl{\textendash}Avrami model. The activation energy measurements reported here are consistent with measurements previously reported for other species within the\ Pinus\ and\ Eucalyptus\ genera.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10973-017-6512-0}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10973-017-6512-0}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin and Paul Joseph} } @conference {bnh-3882, title = {Large-eddy simulation of neutral atmospheric surface layer flow over heterogeneous tree canopies}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Large-eddy simulation of a neutral atmospheric surface layer (ASL) flow is per- formed over a modelled tree canopy with heterogeneous leaf-area density. The canopy is arranged as a series of equally-sized stripes of different leaf-area density, emulating the study of Bou-Zeid et al. (E. Bou-Zeid, C. Meneveau, and M.B. Parlange. Large-eddy simulation of neutral atmospheric boundary layer flow over heterogeneous surfaces: Blending height and effective surface roughness. Water Resources Research, 40(2), 2004.) over heterogeneous rough surfaces. The simulation results are analysed to understand the qualitative similarities and differences between ASL flows over heterogeneous canopies and heterogeneous roughnesses. This will allow, in the future, the identification of the equivalent roughness length, displacement length, and blending height which parameterises the flow above the heterogeneous canopy. In the present work we restrict attention to the characterisation of the four canopy case and the blending height and β parameter, the ratio of shear stress to velocity at the canopy top. The general characteristics of the four-canopy case are representative of the other cases. Strong vertical velocities (ie up- and down-drafts) exist at the interface between the heterogeneous roughness stripes. However, for a canopy, vertical velocity couplets exist on the vertical interface between two canopies. This implies the presence of sub-canopy recirculation zones at canopy interfaces, which can be confirmed by visualisation of the fluid streamlines. Above the canopy internal boundary layers form over each canopy stripe and exhibit similar features to the characteristic upstream plumes of flow over a rough surface. The shear stress immediately above the canopy varies over the stripes but it varies more smoothly over a canopy than over a heterogeneous roughness. These simulations will allow the development of parameterisations for the near-surface layer and the sub-canopy winds. A better understanding of the effect of heterogeneous canopies on the sub-canopy winds will improve predictions of the wind reduction factor, and in turn, improve operational fire spread predictions.

}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin and Andrew Ooi} } @article {bnh-3861, title = {Launceston flood risk mitigation assessment - June 2016 floods: suburb of Newstead}, number = {339}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Launceston is floodprone and located within the Tamar River floodplain at the confluence of the Tamar, North Esk and South Esk Rivers in Tasmania. Launceston has been subjected to 35 significant floods since records began, with the 1929 flood considered to be the worst (Fullard, 2013). A new Launceston Flood Authority was established in 2008 to design, construct and maintain existing and new flood levees. To replace the existing deteriorated levees a flood mitigation initiative was completed in 2016 to provide Launceston with reliable flood protection up to the 200 year Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI) event (Fullard, 2013).

However, this flood mitigation initiative did not extend to Newstead, a suburb in the east of Launceston, with the suburb consequently not protected from floods. Therefore, a new levee was proposed to protect the properties in Newstead from future floods. The cost of the proposed levee was estimated to be $580,000 along with an annual maintenance cost of $10,000 (Fullard, 2016).

Geoscience Australia was funded to undertake a project to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the proposed flood levee in Newstead as a variation to its current project (BNHCRC, 2017a) within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC). The project stakeholders included the CRC, Tasmanian Department of Premier and Cabinet, Tasmanian State Emergency Service, the City of Launceston, Launceston Flood Authority and Northern Midlands Council.

This report provides the details of the CBA of the proposed flood levee along with consideration of several other mitigation options as researched within the BNHCRC flood mitigation project.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-8-6}, issn = {339}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Itismita Mohanty and Neil Corby and Mark Edwards and Fiona L Gibson and Rogers, Michael J.} } @article {bnh-3803, title = {Launceston flood risk mitigation - June 2016 floods}, number = {257}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

With Launceston experiencing severe flooding in June 2016, this project reviewed the costs and benefits of mitigation work (upgraded levees) which began in 2010. Flood mitigation is an expensive exercise, and this research highlights the benefits through avoided impacts of the flood levee mitigation program, against the cost of construction.

Findings show that the upgrading of the levee system, completed in 2014, resulted in avoiding losses of about $216 million (had the pre-existing levees failed), which is approximately four times the total investment in the new levee system. This investment in building the new levee system was found to be a sound economic decision based on the estimated costs at the time of decision making, alongside improved estimates of benefits from this study. The actual benefits of these mitigation works to the community extend beyond the direct benefits as assessed in this project, to the intangible and indirect benefits that have not been included.

It was found that sea level rise scenarios would only have a limited impact on building losses. However, the combined impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity due to climate change on the total losses may be significantly greater and could be further investigated.

The study assessed:

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-7-9}, issn = {257}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Itismita Mohanty and Neil Corby and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-4248, title = {Learning for emergency services: looking for a new approach}, number = {357}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper reviews the processes used in inquiries following significant natural hazard events, and in particular bushfires. It is argued that the coroner/Royal Commissioner model has not proved effective in identifying learning that will help communities to rebuild relationships after an event, or develop resilience in anticipation of the next event.

After identifying shortcomings with current practices the paper argues for an alternative approach to post event inquiries. Restorative justice is a concept established in the area of criminal law but it is argued that guidance from the community of restorative practitioners could assist in formulating enquiries that would assist all stakeholders to come together and resolve, collectively, how to deal with the aftermath of disaster and the implications for the future.

The paper also argues that a standing Fire and Emergency Safety Bureau should be considered to conduct some enquiries and to act as a standing secretariat for inquiries in the nature of a Royal Commission.

Issues of compensation for those affected by natural disasters are touched upon.

}, issn = {357}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @inbook {bnh-4194, title = {Legal and Ethical Aspects of Disaster Management}, booktitle = {Disaster Health Management: A Primer for Students and Practitioners}, year = {2017}, publisher = {Routledge}, organization = {Routledge}, abstract = {

Disaster health is an emerging field that focuses on developing prevention, preparation, response and recovery systems for dealing with health problems that result from a disaster. As disasters worldwide differ in their nature, scope and cultural context, a thorough understanding of the fundamental tenets of sound disaster health management is essential for both students and practitioners to participate confidently and effectively in the field.

Disaster Health Management\ is the first comprehensive textbook to provide a standard guide to terminology and management systems across the entire spectrum of disaster health. Authored by experienced educators, researchers and practitioners in disaster health management, this textbook provides an authoritative overview of:

Using Australasian systems and structures as examples of generic principles which will find application globally,\ Disaster Health Management\ is an essential text for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, as well as for professionals involved in all aspects of disaster management.

}, isbn = {9781138911185}, url = {https://www.routledge.com/Disaster-Health-Management-A-Primer-for-Students-and-Practitioners/FitzGerald-Tarrant-Aitken-Fredriksen/p/book/9781138911185}, author = {McDonald, F and Michael Eburn and Smith, E} } @conference {bnh-3904, title = {Lessons learned from a multidisciplinary investigation into the Waroona fire}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Waroona fire burnt over 68,000 ha and destroyed more than 160 homes in southwest Western Australia in January 2016.\ \  This conference paper is an abbreviated and less technical version of a longer case study that has been submitted to the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (Peace et al., 2017). More detail and supporting analysis is contained in the JSHESS version and interested readers are directed there.

Our investigation revealed processes that contributed to four episodes of extreme fire behaviour and the findings are highly relevant to other fires where extreme fire behaviour may develop. This study draws on two reports that highlight the difference between observed FDI{\textquoteright}s and fire activity at Waroona (Bureau of Meteorology, 2016 and McCaw et al., 2016).

There were two pyroCb events; both were associated with anomalously fast fire spread in the prevailing winds; one ignited new fires downwind and the other was against normal diurnal timing. Two evening ember storms occurred; the first impacted the town of Waroona and on the second evening, there were two fatalities when the fire made an unexpected run and produced a destructive ember storm over the town of Yarloop.

}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Lachlan W. McCaw and Burrows, N.D. and Bradley Santos and Robert Fawcett} } @mastersthesis {bnh-3596, title = {LiDAR Application in Forest Fuel Measurements for Bushfire Hazard Mitigation}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, pages = {134}, school = {Monash University}, type = {PhD}, address = {Clayton}, abstract = {

Australia{\textquoteright}s native Eucalypt forests are the most fire-prone in the world due to high rates of fuel accumulation, high flammability of fuel, and seasonally hot and dry weather conditions. Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather could increase the occurrence of {\textquoteleft}mega-fires{\textquoteright}, extreme fire events with catastrophic impacts on people and the environment. Current methods for fire risk mitigation and prediction such as fire danger rating systems, fire behaviour models, and hazard reduction treatments require an accurate description of forest fuel. However, fire management authorities share a common challenge to efficiently and accurately quantify forest fuel properties (e.g. fuel load and fuel structure) at a landscape scale. A landscape includes the physical elements of geo-physically defined landforms, such as forests, grasslands, and lakes. This thesis investigates the application of the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technique in quantifying forest fuel properties, including fuel structural characteristics and litter-bed fuel load at a landscape scale.

Currently, fire fighters and land managers still rely on empirical knowledge to visually assess forest fuel characteristics of distinct fuel layers. The visual assessment method provides a subjective description of fuel properties that can lead to unreliable fire behaviour prediction and hazard estimation. This study developed a novel method to classify understorey fuel layers in order to quantify fuel structural characteristics more accurately and efficiently by integrating terrestrial LiDAR data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The GIS-based analysis and processing procedures allow more objective descriptions of fuel covers and depths for individual fuel layers. The more accurate forest fuel structural information derived from terrestrial LiDAR data can be used to prescribe fire hazard-reduction burns, predict fire behaviour potentials, monitor fuel growth, and conserve forest habitats and ecosystems in multilayered Eucalypt forests.

Traditionally, litter-bed fuel load is directly measured through destructive sampling, sorting, and immediate weighing after oven drying for 24 hours at 105 {\textdegree}C. This direct measurement of fuel load on a landscape scale requires extensive field sampling, post laboratory work and statistical analysis, which is labour intensive and time consuming. This study found new relationships among forest litter-bed fuel load, surface fuel depth, fire history and environmental factors through multiple regressions with airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data. The fuel load models established in this study indicate that litter-bed depth and fire history are the primary predictors in estimating litter-bed fuel load, while canopy density and terrain features are secondary predictors.

Current fuel models are constrained to estimate spatial variations in fuel load within homogeneous vegetation that previously experienced the same fire events. This study developed a predictive model through multiple regression to estimate the spatial distribution of litter-bed fuel load in multilayered eucalypt forests with various fire histories and forest fuel types. This model uses forest structural indices and terrain features derived from airborne LiDAR data as predictors, which can be applied when data on forest fuel types and previous fire disturbances are absent. It can be used to map the litter-bed fuel load distribution at a landscape scale to support regional wildland fire management and planning.

This study indicates that LiDAR allows a more efficient and accurate description of fuel structural characteristics and estimation of litter-bed fuel load. The results from this study can assist fire hazard assessment, fuel reduction treatment, and fire behaviour prediction, and therefore may reduce the impact to communities and environment.

}, author = {Chen, Yang} } @conference {bnh-3922, title = {Load sharing between batten to rafter connections under wind loading}, booktitle = {13th Americas Conference on Wind Engineering}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, address = {Gainesville, Florida}, abstract = {

Single nailed batten to rafter connections of non-cyclonic region houses were tested under quasi-static ramp loads and under fluctuating dynamic loads determined from a wind tunnel study. Dynamic connection testing showed that nails of connections slip during intermittent {\textquoteleft}peak events{\textquoteright} in the wind load time history with connection failure occurring after several peak events. Non-linear time-history structural analysis was performed on a system of batten to rafter connections where connection testing data were used to model the nominal force-displacement relationships of the nailed connections. This preliminary computer analysis was able to capture the effects of load sharing and redistribution during nail slips and progressive failures.

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317411903_Load_Sharing_Between_Batten_to_Rafter_Connections_under_Wind_Loading}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and D. J. Smith and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-4392, title = {Major post-event inquiries and reviews: review of recommendations}, number = {356}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters and emergencies in Australia have been followed by formal, complex, post-event inquiries and reviews literally hundreds of times. These inquires vary in form and focus, however, their common objective is to identify the causes of disasters and their consequences and to identify better future practices.

The outcomes of major inquiries in one jurisdiction sometimes have ramifications and lead to reform action in other states and territories. While this may be true of larger, higher profile events and inquiries, there is a foregone opportunity if the same process is not systematically undertaken for the outcomes of less prominent reviews and inquiries.

The purpose of this project is to generate a high level and comprehensive description of the major recurrent categories of recommendations across multiple post-event reviews conducted since 2009. The negative hypothesis being tested, provided to the review team, is:

{\textquoteleft}There are no common themes to be identified when comparing and contrasting major post-incident reviews of emergency incidents, and the outcomes of those incidents and consequent recommendations turn on their own particular facts.{\textquoteright}

In testing this hypothesis, the project seeks to understand whether there is ongoing value for state and territory emergency services to consider the lessons from major reviews and inquiries from other jurisdictions within their own context, or whether lessons are too specific and lack broader import.

A core element of this project is the development of a comprehensive and user-friendly database of recommendations from post-event reviews and inquiries that can inform agencies own lessons identification practise now and into the future.

}, issn = {356}, author = {Cole, Lawson and Dovers, Steve and Michael Eburn and Martijn Gough} } @article {bnh-4196, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {308}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2016/2017.

In consultation with the end users we have identified a subset of key outputs that have the highest utilisation potential, and that will be the focus of our work program in the future.

On those lines, the project team has made considerable progress this financial year towards the validation and increased accessibility to the {\textquotedblleft}Australian Flammability Monitoring System{\textquotedblright} for operational prediction of live fuel moisture content (FMC) and flammability in Australia. In this regard, we have created a prototype web service to make spatial information on FMC and flammability easier and faster to access.

Additionally we have:

1)\ \ \  Evaluated the suitability of coarse resolution near-surface soil moisture data to improve the McArthur forest fire danger index

2)\ \ \  Undertaken development of a predictive model for estimating forest surface fuel load with LiDAR data

3)\ \ \  Developed a satellite-based method for the estimation of grassland aboveground biomass

4)\ \ \  Published four journal manuscript with another three currently in review and one invited book chapter in preparation, ten conference abstracts and two milestone reports;

5)\ \ \  Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and

Over the next three years (2017-2020), this research project will focus on increasing the understanding, reliability and long-term continuity of the AFMS, and through this, its acceptance and adoption. Also, a small number of promising, low-cost in-field techniques will continue to be investigated to improve their cost/benefit ratio and utility.

}, issn = {308}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @conference {bnh-3913, title = {Mapping the efficacy of an Australian fuel reduction burn using Fuels3D point clouds}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Fuel reduction burns are commonly used in fire-prone forests to reduce the risk of wildfire and increase ecosystem resilience. As such producing quantified assessments of fire-induced change is important to understanding the success of the intervention. Remote sensing has also been employed for assessing fuel hazard and fire severity. Satellite, airborne and UAV remote sensing, for example, have shown potential for assessing the effects of large wildfires and fuel hazard in areas of open canopy. Fuel reduction burns, however, often take place under dense canopy and result in little or no change to the canopy cover. As such terrestrial techniques are needed to quantify the efficacy of these burns.

This study presents a case study on the use of image based point clouds, captured terrestrially following the fuels3D methodology outlined in Wallace et al. (2016), for describing the change in fuel structure induced by a low intensity fuel reduction burn. The specific objectives of this study were to evaluate whether fuel structure maps produced from fuels3D point clouds are sensitive to the changes that occur during a low intensity fuel reduction burn, and how these changes may be quantified.

}, author = {Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Bryan Hally and Samuel Hillman and Christine Spits} } @article {bnh-4226, title = {Mapping training delivery framework and pathways for the north Australian fire and emergency management training}, number = {351}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The North Australian Fire and Emergency Management Trainingproject was initiated following representations made by land, fire and emergency managers in northern Australia about the inadequacy of existing training for remote fire and emergency management.\  People involved in fire and land management in remote Aboriginal communities in particular were concerned that the existing training did not really provide satisfactory levels of skills or knowledge with which an individual or group could effectively manage bushfire and natural hazards (BNH) at the landscape scale required in the north.\ 

It is important to note that they did not express disdain for the current training; the inadequacy they referred to was more directed at the fact that the training did not go far enough.\  It only covered the basics.\  They recognised that the basics were good and important for maintenance of the safety of individuals working in BNH, but more was required.

Additionally, these informants clearly expressed a desire for their own existing knowledge and ways to be incorporated into training. They indicated that incorporating this traditional knowledge made sense in practical terms: they had always lived here, they knew the landscape, they knew about fire and other hazards and how to manage them.\  It also made sense in more symbolic ways; recognition of their knowledge and skills would mean a great deal to training participants and would be likely to foster better uptake of the training. This holistic training was less likely to be forgotten. The fact that the training might do more than just refer to existing traditional knowledge as a marginal note would allow the training to build on participant{\textquoteright}s existing scaffolds of understanding.

Taking this into account the project in its original conception set out to establish an adaptable program of training modules that would readily fit within a VET qualification or for a component of an HE unit.\  As the project progressed however, a range of issues were identified that cautioned against unilateral implementation of this approach.\ 

Several elements of the wider program of training required the detailed input of local people from the communities within which the training was to be delivered.\  This input included local knowledge of the multidimensional role that fire has within the landscape and its cultural relationships.\  Other information was sought regarding the traditional approaches of the community to leadership and management decision-making.\  For each of these and a number of other tasks, elements of the project were outsourced to ARPNet[1].\  In each case the quality of the information provided exceeded the brief and has considerably enhanced the quality of the final product (the training).\  However, the feedback from the ARPNet research also included a lot of metadata about training in remote Aboriginal communities in general.\  This information included considerable disquiet about VET training in general and the quality of accredited courses delivered in communities specifically.

Consequently this document discusses these issues and concerns and tries to set out a mechanism for ensuring remote communities have access to the training in a suitable framework that enhances their ability to find employment or progress to further education.


[1] ARPNet is the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network, a coordinated group of Aboriginal people from a variety of communities and languages who have been trained in Participatory Action Research.\  Network members are contracted to conduct research, evaluation and planning activities using qualitative and quantitative methods from the ARPNet {\textquotedblleft}Dilly Bag {\textquotedblleft}(Sithole 2013). Research is conducted in the first language of the participants with due attention to cultural sensitivities.

}, issn = {351}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-3860, title = {Mapping values and risks from natural hazards at geographic and institutional scales: framework development}, number = {338}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper describes the framework development for the project {\textquotedblleft}Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale{\textquotedblright} being undertaken for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC). The project is taking a values at risk approach to natural hazard vulnerability by mapping a wide variety of values within an economic geography. Risk ownership of assets at risk and delegated strategic risk management will then be allocated at the institutional scale, providing an insight into existing levels of risk governance for the broad range of values at risk. Aspects of strategic risk management within the project scope concerns natural hazard risk reduction before and after events, taking into account resilience, preparedness, mitigation and recovery.

The systemic nature of natural hazard risk requires building the standard risk assessment process into a broader framework that assess interactions at the institutional scale. This role is filled by the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework (IAD). The framework operates at a polycentric (multiple scale) and heterodox (multiple economic methodology) scale, and is suited to the analysis of common pool resources, which are subtractable, and where limiting access is non-trivial. The capacity to manage natural disaster risk arguably qualifies as a common pool resource, notwithstanding the open-ended nature of current government financing arrangement for disaster recovery.

Key features of the framework include:

}, issn = {338}, author = {Roger Jones and Celeste Young and Symons, J} } @article {bnh-5070, title = {Meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour during the Waroona bushfire, Western Australia, January 2016}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science}, volume = {67}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {79-106}, chapter = {79}, abstract = {

The Waroona bushfire burnt 69,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. During the first two days of the fire, there were two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events and two destructive evening fire runs. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. This case study examines in detail the links between the meteorological observations and the fire behaviour reconstruction.

The first pyroCb developed on Wednesday 6 January 2016, when the fire made an unexpectedly fast run in light prevailing winds. The pyroCb produced lightning strikes that ignited a new fire downwind of the main head fire. A second pyroCb developed on Thursday morning, against normal diurnal thunderstorm trends. Similar to the previous evening, the fire spread faster than expected, given the near-surface meteorological conditions.

On both evenings there were destructive ember storms over the towns of Waroona (Wednesday) and Yarloop (Thursday). Examination of the meteorological observations has linked these ember showers to the onset of downslope winds, locally known as {\textquoteright}scarp winds{\textquoteright}. As downslope winds are associated with strong localised turbulence, they provide a mechanism for transport of large numbers of firebrands.

The periods of extreme fire behaviour at Waroona were against normal diurnal expectations and did not coincide with the highest observed Fire Danger Index (FDI) values, which occurred at around 1600 LT. This study links both pyroCb events to accelerated fire spread, which presents a hazard to firefighters that is not accounted for in traditional, surface based methods of fire prediction. Downslope winds similar to those that impacted the Waroona fire occur at many locations. They provide a highly localised mechanism for destructive evening ember showers.

This investigation into the Waroona fire describes the potential impacts of fireatmosphere feedback processes. Consequently, it highlights the need for predictive methods and tools that anticipate fire behaviour which is not steady-state. Planned simulations using a coupled fire-atmosphere model will allow further insights into features of this case study.

}, doi = {10.22499/3.6702.002}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2017/Peace.pdf}, author = {Mika Peace and Lachlan W. McCaw and Bradley Santos and Jeffrey Kepert and Burrows, N.D. and Robert Fawcett} } @conference {bnh-4334, title = {Methods of structural analysis of buildings in regions of low to moderate seismicity}, booktitle = {2017 World Congress on Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, address = {Seoul, Korea}, abstract = {

The paper introduces simplified methods for the analysis of multi-storey buildings for regions of low to moderate seismicity. Due to functional and architectural requirement most newly designed and existing buildings feature irregularities. The irregularities can be in a form of vertical irregularity (caused by discontinuity in load carrying elements) and plan irregularity (caused by cores that are eccentric ally placed within the buildings). Contemporary earthquake design standards and assessment procedures require dynamic analyses to be performed on such structures. However, dynamic analyses can be computationally expensive and require expert judgment, especially as far as three-dimensionally modelling is involved.

The early part of the paper presents the simplified method for the analysis of torsionally balanced (TB) buildings. Generalised modal displacements that were derived from parametric studies involving multi-storey buildings with vertical irregularities are introduced. The simplified method has been extended to account for the effects of torsion due to plan asymmetry to produce estimates of the maximum displacement demand at the edges of torsionally unbalanced (TU) buildings.

}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Alireza Mehdipanah and Nelson Lam and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-4505, title = {Methods of Structural Analysis of Buildings Incorporating Higher Modes Effects}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society }, year = {2017}, pages = {10}, abstract = {

Dynamic analysis method has been suggested for the analysis of irregular buildings in the seismic standards. However, dynamic analyses can be computationally expensive and there are uncertainties associated with the selection of ground motion records for the regions of low to moderate seismicity. In a relevant research by the authors, it has been shown that linear response of irregular buildings featuring transfer beams resembles the response of regular buildings in the regions of low to moderate seismicity such as Australia. Hence, Generalised Lateral Force Method (GLFM) of Analysis is introduced and developed to incorporate the effects of higher modes based on generic modal displacement values. This method can be used for shear wall dominant RC buildings with or without transfer beam irregularity features. Shortcomings of the conventional Equivalent Static Analysis Method are resolved and the robustness of the method in estimating the seismic demands within the elastic limit is demonstrated by comparison with dynamic analyses.

}, keywords = {dynamic analysis method., higher mode effects, Multi-storey buildings, static analysis method}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/463-Alireza-Mehdipanah.pdf}, author = {Alireza Mehdipanah and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam} } @article {bnh-4201, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {317}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project titled {\textquotedblleft}Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves through the Improvements of Land Dryness Measures and Forecasts{\textquotedblright} examines the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project will address a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events.\ 

Currently landscape dryness is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI; Keetch \& Byram 1968) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI; Mount 1972). An initial study performed as part of this project suggest that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation. The project has developed a stand alone prototype land surface modelling system to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and at 4 soil layers. Verification against ground based soil moisture observations show that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

The present report documents the activities undertaken in 2016-2017. The main focus of the year has been on the calibration of soil moisture from a new high resolution land surface modelling system allowing for easier utilisation within existing operational fire prediction systems. The calibrated outputs will be evaluated against numerous case studies that include past bush fire occurrences and fuel reduction burns conducted by fire agencies. This work is in progress and eight case studies have been identified so far. These case studies were selected with the help of end users. All case studies will be documented and could be used as training documentation by fire agencies.

}, issn = {317}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Alexander Holmes} } @conference {bnh-3875, title = {Modelling feedback between fuel reduction burning and forest carbon and water balance in eucalypt forests}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Empirical evidence from Australia shows that fuel-reduction burning significantly reduces the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. However, the integration of environmental values into fire management operations is not yet well-defined and requires further research and development.

While in reality carbon and water processes in forested ecosystems are coupled, effects of fire on these processes are often studied in isolation. Models that simulate the dynamic interaction and feedbacks between these processes are essential for investigations of the effects of fuel management in an environmental setting.\ 

WAVES, a soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model, was used to simulate the hydrological and ecological effects of four fuel management scenarios on a forest ecosystem. WAVES was applied using inputs from a set of forest plots across south-east Australia for a period of 1 year after four potential scenarios: (1) no fuel- reduction treatment (unburnt), (2) all litter removed, (3) all litter and 50\% of the understorey vegetation removed, 4) all litter and all of understorey vegetation removed.

The impacts of fuel-reduction burning on water processes were mainly due to changes in vegetation interception capacity and soil evaporation. The effect of fuel-reduction burning on evapotranspiration is discussed considering the balance of vegetation biomass in the overstorey and the understorey. Recovery of aboveground carbon as plant biomass was strongly linked to variability in available light and soil moisture. We describe how these modelling efforts can be used for impact assessment in terms of water, vegetation and carbon outcomes for planning of fuel reduction burning.

}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Malcolm Possell and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-4406, title = {Modelling FRP-to-substrate joints using the bilinear bond-slip rule with allowance for friction - Full-range analytical solutions for long and short bonded lengths}, journal = {International Journal of Solids and Structures}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

Methods for simulating the mechanics of debonding and predicting global load-slip (P-Δ) response from local bond stress versus slip (τ-δ) relationships can vary significantly in their complexity. It is generally accepted that an adequate representation of intermediate crack debonding can be achieved by considering only mode-II (shear) fracture along the interfacial bond, a problem that can be solved by accounting for one-dimensional fields of elastic stress and strain in the substrate and plate, and nonlinear interfacial slip and shear stress along the bond. In this paper, full-slip-range analytical solutions are presented for the bilinear τ-δ rule with allowance for residual friction. The procedure is capable of modelling the entire debonding process over both long and short bonded lengths. This is an extension of previous works which are either inapplicable to all bonded lengths or do not allow for residual strength. Applicability of the formulation can range from externally-bonded or near-surface-mounted FRP plates, to embedded bars or bolts in brittle substrates such as concrete, rock or masonry. The versatility and low computational effort required to apply the developed formulation makes it ideal for both directly predicting the\ P-Δ relationship from known τ-δ parameters, or conversely for extracting a τ-δ relationship from a reference\ P-Δ curve using inverse calibration. While it is not the purpose of this paper to propose a bond model for any specific type of system, a framework is proposed for doing so. Significantly this framework addresses the difficulty in identifying a unique solution of local properties from experimental data, and highlights that the bonded length has an important influence on the reliability of extracted results.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijsolstr.2017.11.024}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020768317305279}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Sturm, Alexander B. and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-3925, title = {Modelling the dynamic behaviour of junction fires with a coupled fire-atmosphere model}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {26}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, pages = {331-344}, chapter = {331}, abstract = {

Dynamic fire behaviour involves rapid changes in fire behaviour without significant changes in ambient conditions, and can compromise firefighter and community safety. Dynamic fire behaviour cannot be captured using spatial implementations of empirical fire-spread models predicated on the assumption of an equilibrium, or quasi-steady, rate of spread. In this study, a coupled atmosphere{\textendash}fire model is used to model the dynamic propagation of junction fires, i.e. when two firelines merge at an oblique angle. This involves very rapid initial rates of spread, even with no ambient wind. The simulations are in good qualitative agreement with a previous experimental study, and indicate that pyro-convective interaction between the fire and the atmosphere is the key mechanism driving the dynamic fire propagation. An examination of the vertical vorticity in the simulations, and its relationship to the fireline geometry, gives insight into this mechanism. Junction fires have been modelled previously using curvature-dependent rates of spread. In this study, however, although fireline geometry clearly influences rate of spread, no relationship is found between local fireline curvature and the simulated instantaneous local rate of spread. It is possible that such a relationship may be found at larger scales.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF16079}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF16079}, author = {Thomas, C. M. and Jason J. Sharples and Jason P. Evans} } @article {bnh-3805, title = {A modified Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) scenario: wind and storm tide hazards and impacts}, number = {258}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report describes research undertaken to develop a modified Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) scenario and details its wind and storm tide-related impacts on buildings and society in Livingstone Shire and the Rockhampton Region. A perturbed version of the original track taken by Cyclone Marcia was chosen to create an ensemble event set of possible worstcase wind and storm tide inundation scenarios for the region of interest and the key findings of this work are as follows:

Future work will seek to improve the exposure dataset used in this scenario. Improvements will include adding critical infrastructure such as power lines and water distribution networks, as well as, updating Geocoded {\textendash} National Address File (G-NAF) building level estimates of property value, contents value and population using ground truth data. The wind, rainfall and storm surge hazard models and associated vulnerability models used in the current multi-hazard model framework will also be updated. The wind hazard model will include new environmental parameters (i.e. sea surface temperature and deep layer wind shear) that influence tropical cyclone formation and maintenance. This improvement will help generate more realistic cyclones wind fields. The rainfall hazard model will be calibrated to Australian surface terrain and topography to simulate inland rainfall enhancements and will be paired with a hydrodynamic runoff model to simulate inland flooding damage and impacts to buildings, critical infrastructure and society during the post-landfall phase. The storm tide hazard model will be updated to simulate inland flooding impacts (e.g. surge-induced riverine flooding) by including the influence of the underlying surface roughness overland and expanding the mesh inland. Updates to the wind and flood vulnerability models will be made as new results surface from Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC projects aiming to develop and improve these types of models. The flood vulnerability model will be updated to include flow velocity and wave effects. Finally, combined or joint hazard impacts (i.e. wind driven rain) will be evaluated to develop joint-hazard damage functions in future model releases.\ 

}, issn = {258}, author = {Richard Krupar III and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-5163, title = {Monitoring the dynamic behaviour of the Merlynston Creek Bridge using interferometric radar sensors and finite element modeling}, journal = {International Journal of Applied Mechanics}, volume = {9}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

Bridges play an important role in economic development and bring important social benefits. The development of innovative bridge monitoring techniques will enable road authorities to optimize operational and maintenance activities for bridges. However, monitoring the dynamic behavior of a bridge requires a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between the bridge and traffic loading which has not been fully achieved so far. In the present study, an integrated bridge health monitoring framework is developed using advanced 3D Finite Element modeling in conjunction with Weight-in-motion (WIM) technology and interferometric radar sensors (IBIS-S). The realistic traffic loads imposed on the bridge will be obtained through calibration and validation of traffic loading prediction model using real-time bridge dynamic behavior captured by IBIS-S and WIM data. Using the Merlynston Creek Bridge in Melbourne, Australia as a case study, it demonstrated that the proposed bridge monitoring framework can both efficiently and accurately capture the real-time dynamic behavior of the bridge under traffic loading as well as the dynamic characteristics of the bridge. The outcomes from this research could potentially enhance the durability of bridges which is an important component of the sustainability of transport infrastructure.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1142/S175882511750003X}, url = {https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S175882511750003X}, author = {Bidur Kafle and Lihai Zhang and Priyan Mendis and Nilupa Herath and Maizuar Maizuar and Colin Duffield and Russell G Thompson} } @conference {bnh-3906, title = {Multi-hazard mitigation planning, combining modelling, scenarios and optimisation: results from South Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia, but with effective planning and mitigation spending, their impacts can be minimised significantly. Analysis shows an average cost of natural hazards in Australia for 2015 totalled $9.6 billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33 billion by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk is a function of decisions made today, including the developments permitted and laws passed, and as such there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow{\textquoteright}s impacts.

To assist in the understanding of tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk, driven by changing hazards, exposure and vulnerability, a decision support system (DSS) and integrated use process have been developed. This DSS models risk into the future and how it is driven by climatic, economic and demographic factors. Figure 1 shows the integration of risk across exposure, vulnerability and hazard along with some of the factors that are encompassed, as well as the drivers and uncertainties surrounding these factors that make the future so hard to predict.

}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Roel Vanhout and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-4390, title = {Narrowing the awareness-action gap: cultivating fire-fitness as a social norm through public policy initiatives}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

This study proposes innovative ways for routine {\textquoteright}fire-fitness{\textquoteright} to become a social norm to narrow the bushfire awareness-preparedness gap and thus save human lives. It identifies new, data-driven preparedness policies to help improve human safety in all-hazards emergencies. Public preparedness for natural hazard events requires continual improvement. Addressing this with innovative public health policy and practices aims to more effectively manage the impact of fire and worsening severe weather events on human populations. The Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia was selected as a research site for several reasons including its recent and severe fire history. Data were collected from stakeholders, namely emergency responders and animal owners, to explore, problem-solve and arrive at practical and achievable answers to cultivate a culture of preparedness as a routine activity. Data analysis generated three initiatives with the potential to achieve this, being a new type of workplace leave, financial incentives linked to municipal charges and reviewing management of firebreaks and crop placement in the modern environment of {\textquoteright}conservation farming{\textquoteright}. These represent medium to long-term changes to public health and safety policy that can help to make {\textquoteright}fire-fitness{\textquoteright} a social norm.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-18}, author = {Rachel Westcott} } @conference {bnh-3885, title = {National mental health and wellbeing study of police and emergency services}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

People who work or volunteer for ambulance, fire and rescue, police and state emergency services provide vital care and protection to the Australian community. The nature of emergency services work means police and emergency services personnel\ routinely face life and death challenges and can witness very distressing situations. Like other workers, they can experience common workplace risks to mental health, such as heavy workloads, high demands, and bullying. Stigma regarding mental health conditions is still prevalent in many traditionally male-dominated occupations, such as emergency services. There is also anecdotal evidence to suggest that police and emergency service personnel who retire or leave the job may have high rates of depression, anxiety and suicide.

beyondblue, with support from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, is currently undertaking a national research study to build a comprehensive picture of the mental health and wellbeing of police and emergency services personnel in Australia. This study is using qualitative and quantitative methods in combination with a strong focus on knowledge translation to develop ways to improve mental health in the workplace. As part of this study, we are conducting the first national survey of mental health and wellbeing of current and former employees and volunteers across the sector.

This presentation will describe the development and design of the study. It is planned to survey over 20,000 employees and volunteers nationwide using an online survey vehicle. The survey will collect information about wellbeing and common mental health conditions such as anxiety, depression and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, suicide risk, stigma, help-seeking behaviour and factors that support or jeopardise the mental health of police and emergency services personnel.\  A key aspect of the project will be the knowledge translation phase which will draw from the survey findings to identify and develop feasible, acceptable and practical interventions and strategies to improve the mental health and wellbeing of police and emergency services personnel around Australia.

}, author = {Jennifer Bartlett} } @article {bnh-4145, title = {A natural hazard building loss profile for Australia: 1900-2015}, number = {331}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study examines building damage as recorded in PerilAUS to determine the national profile of natural peril impacts and frequencies. The analysis employs Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} Damage Index based on a House Equivalent (HE) loss metric introduced by Blong (2003); a normalisation correction based on Crompton and McAneney (2008) and Crompton et al. (2010); and a lower bound event threshold of 25 normalised HE. The latter is equivalent to a monetary loss of around $10m in 2015-16. Normalisation puts historical events on a common footing with losses that would be incurred given 2015 societal and demographic conditions. It answers the question: what would be the building losses if historic events were to recur today?

While more validation and analysis remains to be done, we are confident that the relative importance of the various perils and their spatial distribution across states and territories has been faithfully captured. Broadly we find that there have been on average 5.85 events per year causing losses in excess of 25 normalised HE. This frequency exhibits no statistically significant change since 1900. The mean loss per event is $118m with a standard deviation of $430m.

The most costly event in terms of building damage is the 1999 Sydney hailstorm, which was also the most expensive insured loss. The losses broadly follow a Pareto distribution in which 20\% of events account for 80\% of the aggregated normalised building losses and the top 20 are responsible for 50\% of those losses. We can expect natural disaster events as costly as the 1999 Sydney hailstorm to occur about once per century, events like the Brisbane floods once every 30 to 40 years and that of the Hobart Bushfires about once a decade.

Just why most of the extreme losses {\textendash} the 1974 Brisbane floods and Cyclone Tracy in the same calendar year, the 1999 Sydney hailstorm and the 2011 Queensland and Victorian floods {\textendash} are clustered post-1970 requires further investigation. We do not believe this to be a reporting bias and know in the case of floods, for example, that Brisbane experienced much higher floods in the early and late 19th century than either the 1974 and 2011 floods. Regardless of the reason, the pattern of losses demonstrates clearly the {\textquoteleft}heavy-tailed{\textquoteright} character of the distribution of natural peril losses: in other words, there is always the possibility of event losses far in excess of the historical mean. This may be occur because of an event of higher intensity or larger footprint, that footprint impacting an area of higher-valued exposure, or all of these together.

Of all the perils, tropical cyclones have been most destructive and responsible for 30\% of the national building damage since 1900. Bushfires, floods and hail have all been similarly costly each accounting for another 18\% of building losses, although when hailstorms are combined with other storm events (excluding cyclones), thunderstorms similarly contribute 30\% of the losses. Compared with meteorological hazards, geophysical perils have had a minor influence on building damage over the last 116 years with earthquake losses dominated by a single event -- the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. However this time period is too short to predict the frequency of damaging seismic events and in the case of this peril, as with some others, the spatial pattern of losses shown here could be overturned by another extreme loss.\ 

}, issn = {331}, author = {John McAneney and Madappatt, N and Coates, Lucinda and R Crompton and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Blong, R} } @article {bnh-4214, title = {Natural hazards exposure information framework: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {325}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires and Natural Hazards are features of the Australian climate and landscape and will continue to pose a threat (Council of Australian Governments (COAG), 2011). These hazards can have profound personal, social, economic and environmental impacts. The impacts of these disasters demand efforts in planning, preparation, response and recovery to improve community resilience. Exposure in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) describes as {\textquotedblleft}what is at risk{\textquotedblright} that includes people, buildings, infrastructure (transport, energy, communications and water), businesses, hazardous substances, primary and major industries.

Australian Natural Hazards Exposure Information Framework (ANHEF) is aimed at supporting the development of nationally consistent exposure information systems to enable decision-making in disaster management to be evidence-based. This research has reviewed the current literature, engaged end-users and researchers to determine the requirements for both disaster response and disaster mitigation. The project conducted an on-line survey of existing exposure information capabilities in Australia to assess existing data and information capabilities. The survey identified significant gaps in the existing data availability and models to translate the raw data into meaningful information for evidenced-based disaster risk response, recovery and reduction decision-making. Overall, a lack of national consistency in existing data and information capabilities is a limiting factor in evidence-based decision-making. The collective views of data managers, researchers and end-users have formed the basis for exposure information requirements to develop a consistent, standardised exposure information framework that will support vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction and socio-economic impact analysis.

The ANHEF presents the exposure elements required to develop information systems to support various phases of disaster risk reduction from a variety of natural hazards at different levels of governance. The document outlines a generic framework to underpin the above mentioned diverse utilisation and is focused on end-user requirements. To reduce complexity in the user levels, the framework categorises the information provision into three levels depending on user requirements such as policy and planning; response and recovery; and research and analysis.

The ANHEF report is completed and being reviewed. Spatial enablement, land-use categorisation, insurance status and metadata are covered in the framework as fundamental information. Buildings are vulnerable from the impact of natural hazards and malevolent acts. The exposure elements of buildings considered are usage, type, structural system, number of storeys, number of basements, wall type, roof type, size, age, attachments, replacement value and contents value. Infrastructure is the lifeline support for communities, the economy and disaster response. The infrastructure sectors considered are transportation, energy, communication, urban water supply, waste management and hazardous substances. Infrastructure assets are vulnerable to the impact of not only natural hazards and malevolent acts but also their own failure. Information on heavy industries exposed to natural hazards is critical to the economy and safety of workers. Major industries, particularly the manufacturing sector, are considered within the scope of this exposure component. An industrial site has many unique elements that are at risk and contribute to the value chain of the economy. Primary industries sector includes agriculture, fishing, forestry and mining. Population exposure with a particular emphasis on the demographic indicators such as remoteness, population density, mobility, socio-economic status, age profile and communication skills are included.

Business exposure information framework, part of ANHEF consists of business definition and activities information that is deemed necessary for disaster management. The framework identifies information requirements on business exposure that address issues of business continuity, disruption, resilience and recovery in disaster management. The framework has identified different elements of business and economics exposure for different economic activity levels such as micro and macro-economic levels, through an extensive literature review and subject area expert and stakeholders consultations. The report is completed and submitted.

Reliability assessment framework, part of ANHEF provides knowledge on the data available for end-user decision-making. The exposure information systems source the data from sources with varied resolutions, quality, standards, aggregations, disaggregations, statistical approximations and estimations. The reliability assessment framework primarily adopts the ISO standards data quality evaluation procedure as well as data provenance framework. The report is completed and under review.

The ANHEF will increase quality, and drive consistency and continuous improvement in Australian DRR. In achieving these outcomes, the framework provides shared strategic directions and priorities for governments, communities and industry sectors to implement the entire framework to build a national exposure information system. The framework also enables and provides guidance for the end-users to identify certain exposure components as a priority for implementation.\ 

}, issn = {325}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-7443, title = {A new model for effective post-disaster housing reconstruction: Lessons from Gujarat and Bihar in India}, journal = {International Journal of Project Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

This paper critiques the traditional project management (PM) approach for post-disaster reconstruction work in relation to long-term effectiveness at strengthening disaster resilience of communities. While assessments of post-disaster reconstruction projects normally occurs within a few years of the disaster this paper is based on a study of four {\textquoteleft}good practice{\textquoteright} reconstruction projects, 15years after the earthquake and seven years after the flooding disaster from the Indian states of Gujarat and Bihar respectively. This extended timeframe enabled the examination of long-term outcomes related to disaster resilience of communities. The comparison of the four case study projects through extended timeframe enabled authors to articulate critical success factors contributing to project{\textquoteright}s effectiveness. The research found that the best long-term outcomes were achieved when the agencies implementing post-disaster housing reconstruction projects: 1) adopted an {\textquoteleft}agile{\textquoteright} approach to project planning and implementation; 2) allocated\ ample time\ for gaining and maintaining community trust; iii) provided multiple materials, technologies and skilled labour choices to ensure hazard-safety of housing, and (iv) continued community capacity building beyond the completion of the reconstruction work. These imperatives have prompted the development of a progressive, spiral model for effective post-disaster housing reconstruction project management which is presented in this paper.

}, keywords = {Community capacity, Housing reconstruction, India, Post-disaster project management, Project life-cycle, resilience}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.02.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0263786317301618}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Martin Mulligan} } @conference {bnh-3898, title = {A new quantitative smoke forecasting system for Victoria}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Smoke dispersion is a key concern for Government agencies. Government has a responsibility to protect community health in response to smoke events and to minimise the impact of smoke from planned burning.\  To inform community warnings and planned burn management, quality information is needed to support evidence-based decision making.

The Bureau of Meteorology has operated the HYSPLIT smoke dispersion system for use by fire and land management agencies for around 15 years. Recently DELWP funded research to improve smoke emission and transport modelling in Victoria. This project developed a new multi-tiered quantitative smoke prediction system which is a significant step forward compared with the old system.\  It applies recent observations of Victorian smoke emissions and atmospheric chemistry (as embodied in CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Chemical Transport Model) with the increased numerical capability in ensemble and high resolution weather modelling of the Bureau{\textquoteright}s ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction suite.

The new smoke forecasting system has 3 tiers; Tier 1: 10-day ensemble forecasts of fire weather and fire danger indices to assist decisions on burn scheduling, Tier 2: 3-day forecasts of ambient air quality and smoke concentration from existing fires to provide background conditions for burns, and Tier 3: 1-day high resolution forecasts of smoke for planned prescribed burns to support go/no-go decisions.

In this presentation we will demonstrate the improved user interface for the smoke dispersion system and provide examples of output for each of the 3 forecast tiers. We will also describe the methodology for verifying the system output, including initial verification results. Finally areas of potential future work will be discussed, including how other jurisdictions can be involved so that this can become a national smoke dispersion system.

}, author = {Monica Long and Alan Wain and Cope, ME and Beth Ebert and Maree Carroll and Kevin Parkyn and Natalie Tostovrsnik} } @conference {bnh-3872, title = {No ordinary call: factors predicting fire communication officers{\textquoteright} job strain and well-being}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Based on the Job Demands-Resource model (JD-R), the present study investigated the contributions of job demands and job resources to the mental health of emergency service workers. \ Eighty-one fire communication (FireCom) officers employed by Queensland Fire and Emergency Service, (52 females, 29 males; aged between 21 years and 55 years+) completed an online self-report questionnaire that assessed the contributions of job demands (including acute demands, chronic demands, and demands of shift work), age, and job resources (including social support and self-efficacy), as predictors of four indices of mental health (well-being, depression, anxiety, and stress). \ Four hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. \ Higher social support, in particular family support, was found to significantly and positively predict well-being and negatively predict both depression and stress. \ The association between self-efficacy and overall well-being was not significant. \ Individuals with higher chronic job demands had higher levels of stress and anxiety but not depression, while those with higher acute job demands reported high levels of depression only. \ These findings have implications for the way FireCom officers can be best supported and educated to achieve positive mental health outcomes and continue to successfully provide that first link between the community and emergency services.

}, author = {Karen Bradley} } @article {bnh-5095, title = {Non-destructive estimation of above-ground surface and near-surface biomass using 3D terrestrial remote sensing techniques}, journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {
  1. Quantitative measurements of above-ground vegetation biomass are vital to a range of ecological and natural resource management applications. Remote-sensing techniques, such as terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and image-based point clouds, are potentially revolutionary techniques for measuring vegetation biomass and deriving other related, structural metrics for these purposes.
  2. Surface vegetation biomass (up to 25\ cm) in pasture, forest, and woodland environments is estimated from a 3D point cloud derived from a small number of digital images. Volume is calculated, using the 3D cloud and regressed against dry weight to provide an estimate of biomass. Assessment of the method is made through comparison to 3D point clouds collected through TLS surveys.
  3. High correlation between destructively sampled biomass and vegetation volume derived from TLS and image-based point clouds in the pasture (TLS\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0001, image based\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0002), dry grassy forest (TLS\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0003, image based\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0004) and lowland forest (TLS\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0005, image based\ urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0006) environments was found. Occlusion caused by standing vegetation in the woodland environment resulted in moderate correlation between TLS derived volume and biomass (urn:x-wiley:2041210X:media:mee312759:mee312759-math-0007). The effects of surrounding vegetation on the image-based technique resulted in 3D point clouds being resolved for only 40\% of the samples in this environment.
  4. The results of this study demonstrate that image-based point cloud techniques are highly viable for the measurement of surface biomass. In contrast to TLS, volume and biomass data can be captured using low-cost equipment and relatively little expertise.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12759}, url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/2041-210X.12759}, author = {Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Karin Reinke and Bryan Hally} } @article {bnh-4243, title = {Northern Australian bushfire and natural hazards training: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {346}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines progress in the North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project.\  The project is part of a program of action research projects based at Charles Darwin University entitled {\textquotedblleft}Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia{\textquotedblright}.\  This program includes both physical and social science research into natural and cultural processes that impact upon the vulnerability and resilience of remote north Australian communities.\ 

The Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia program has a strong focus of participatory action research to encourage and enhance existing nodes of capability and excellence.\  The most prominent of these for fire and emergency management are remote Aboriginal Ranger groups.\  These groups have grown substantially in the last decade and have built a solid base of capacity by ensuring skills, knowledge and qualifications in relevant fields.\  In contrast to the more widely reported {\textquoteleft}deficit{\textquoteright} model of remote communities {\textendash} communities with Ranger groups are moving to develop the social infrastructure that underpins disaster resilience; employment, social networks and communication.

The North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project aims to provide a {\textquoteleft}next-generation{\textquoteright} training program that builds on these current assets in the north such as the ranger programs and leads to increasing levels of competence and confidence and in its turn, resilience. The project is a response to north Australian stakeholder concerns that existing training is inadequate for their needs.

The project was late to start, but has now completed 10 new training units and a pilot delivery undertaken in June 2017.\  In keeping with the participatory mode for the wider project in which the training project sits, ARPNet conducted research into local fire management knowledge including facilitating workshops on traditional leadership as it relates to emergency management in preparation for the pilot. ARPNet is also in the process of completing a critical evaluation of the pilot to inform amendments to all elements of the program.

This year{\textquoteright}s progress has been centered on workshops to develop and conduct a pilot training.

A workshop was held in July 2016 to develop concepts around Aboriginal leadership for BNH Management. This was held at Limurlee on the Blythe River in central Arnhem Land. The workshop brought forth important conceptual information around indigenous leadership structures and key skills and knowledge Aboriginal BNH and land managers need to operate successfully.

A pilot training program was held at Malyangarngak south of Ramingining, also in central Arnhem Land. This pilot trialled three key components of the course material developed for the project. A range of features were identified as being highly successful, while a range of elements need further work before the package is complete.

Evaluation of the pilot has been outsourced to ARPNet and a draft report is expected at the end of September 2017.

}, issn = {346}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-4229, title = {Numerical modelling of fires on forest floor and canopy fires}, number = {352}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) is a physics-based fire model developed by the US Forest Department and to simulate fire spread in landscapes. It is an extension of National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) building fire model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Currently both models have the capability to model surface fire as well as crown fire. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses are important for further advancement. This study shows that for quantitative analysis, grid convergence is not elusive and the grid converged solution agrees well with the experimental result involving ignition of a Douglas fir tree. The WFDS model is also capable of qualitatively predicting propagation of surface fire to the forest canopy.

}, issn = {352}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-4008, title = {The oak or the reed: how resilience theories are translated into distaster management policies}, journal = {Ecology and Society}, volume = {22}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

Although many researchers explore disaster resilience as an ongoing process or as a measurable property with indicators, few study whether disaster resilience policies are likely to lead to outcomes that are adaptive over the longer term. Some measures intended to increase local resilience may actually decrease the ability to cope with large-scale disasters. In the context of flood management, this work looks at activities supported in the name of resilience and whether they will result in long-term adaptive outcomes. It is proposed that the interpretation of {\textquotedblleft}resilience{\textquotedblright} in emergency management has been influenced by pre-existing disaster management concepts, such as the prevent-prepare-respond-recover (PPRR) framework. These have not been adequately reassessed in the light of resilience theories. Disaster resilience was examined using the PPRR framework as a lens. With a focus on flooding, national disaster resilience policy documents from four countries and the global arena were studied to find out which activities were linked to resilience and whether this varies between countries. Subnational policies were also examined in areas that had recently experienced major flooding. Resilience interpretations in some countries were found to support resistance strategies while others were more accommodating. The continued development of floodplains, facilitated by structural mitigation, is an example of a highly resilient but maladaptive feedback loop. This results in risk accumulation and higher consequences during extreme floods. Research explores ways interventions could alter feedbacks and transform to more desirable resilience regimes. It is proposed that negotiating long-term adaptation pathways should be the ultimate aim for planners and emergency managers rather than resilience, which tends to support the status quo. Emergency management concepts and frameworks need to be amended in the light of resilience theories to make it easier to achieve adaptive outcomes.

}, doi = {10.5751/ES-09491-220318}, url = {https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss3/art18/}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-4117, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {203}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, pages = {157-170}, chapter = {157}, abstract = {

Fire plays a critical role in biodiversity, carbon balance, soil erosion, and nutrient and hydrological cycles. While empirical evidence shows that fuel reduction burning can reduce the incidence, severity and extent of unplanned fires in Australia and elsewhere, the integration of environmental values into fire management operations is not well-defined and requires further research and development. In practice, the priority for fuel reduction burning is effective mitigation of risk to life and property. Environmental management objectives, including maintenance of high quality water, reduction of CO2\ emissions and conservation of biodiversity can be constrained by this priority. We explore trade-offs between fuel reduction burning and environmental management objectives and propose a framework for optimising fuel reduction burning for environmental outcomes.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.056}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479717307387?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Malcolm Possell and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-4202, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes: annual report 2016-17}, number = {318}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During the year the focus has been on consolidation of our landscape-scale empirical dataset, development and validation of models of carbon, water and vegetation, and conversion of research reports into peer-reviewed publications. The journals that we have published in have impact factors of 2.2 or greater and are rated in the top quartile for journals in the fields of Land Management, Forestry, Ecology, Fuels Technology or Chemistry. In addition, members of the research \ team\  and \ postgraduate \ students \ have presented \ their \ work\  at a number of international and national conferences.

We have exceeded the requirements for field work with a total of 83 plots sampled during the life of the project with 29 plots (equivalent to 58 burn units) sampled in the current financial year. The sample sites have spanned Victoria, the ACT and NSW and have involved interaction with local land management agencies for access, sharing of site information (e.g. burning prescriptions and history) and assistance with sample collection. A highlight of our more recent sampling efforts has been part of the Mechanical Fuel Load Reduction Trial project overseen by Forestry Corporation NSW. For our part, we will model the impact of mechanical thinning versus fuel reduction burning on forest carbon and water balance.

We have endeavoured to maintain good communication with our End Users {\textendash} earlier in the year to develop a Research Utilisation Roadmap for the {\textquoteleft}Prescribed Burning and Catchment Management{\textquoteright} Cluster and a Project Plan for continuation of our research from 2017{\textendash}2020. Later in the year we worked closely with End Users as they developed a presentation for the {\textquoteleft}Research Driving Change Showcase{\textquoteright}. We have also had a number of multi-agency meetings to keep our End Users up to date with our research progress.

As we move into our second phase of research we will continue to aim to increase the capacity of fire and land management agencies to enhance their planning capabilities for fuel reduction burning (FRB). This will lead to better outcomes related to provision of high quality water, carbon sequestration and maintenance of vegetation diversity while reducing fuel loads for protection of life and property.

}, issn = {318}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @conference {bnh-3894, title = {An organisational response to Stage 3 Geography and the study of a contemporary bushfire event}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The NSW Geography Syllabus now requires that Stage 3 students (Years 5 and 6) study a contemporary bush fire event using an Inquiry Learning approach. The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) estimates that in 2017 2,500 schools, 4,000 classroom teachers and 100,000 students will be undertaking this Unit.

The NSW RFS has supported the development of An evidence-based practice framework for children{\textquoteright}s disaster education. The Framework is a primary guidance to the Stage 3 Geography work now being undertaken by the NSW RFS, addressing the majority of elements identified under the Framework{\textquoteright}s 6 areas (Curriculum, Pedagogy, Assessment, Professional Development, Scaled Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation).

This is an opportunity for inter-generational change. Stage 3 students will experience disaster resilience education framed around a contemporary bush fire event.

NSW RFS volunteers and staff already undertake numerous activities with schools and students, most commonly with the delivery of key fire and bush fire safety messages with younger children.

The Geography Syllabus change has required the NSW RFS to reflect on how to support explicit educational outcomes. The NSW RFS response to the change has four key elements:

This work also complements key elements of the research utilization roadmap 2016-21 for the BNHCRC Building Best Practice in Child Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR) project. This work will help to create effective CC-DRR programs that can be sustainably implemented at scale, and that increase resilience and reduce current and future disaster risk.

}, author = {Tony Jarrett} } @conference {bnh-3896, title = {Organisational socialisation of volunteers in an emergency services agency}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

In many OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is heavily reliant on volunteers trained in areas of fire, rescue, medical care, and relief. Australia is no exception. Australian communities, the government, and businesses rely on the hard work and dedication of tens of thousands of volunteers to keep Australians and their property safe from the impact of fire and natural disaster. However, while incidents of natural disaster are on the incline, volunteers, those who are capable of and willing to serve their communities in times of crisis, are on the decline.

A wealth of literature has examined retention of volunteers and how to address it.\  However, while it is acknowledged that volunteer turnover occurs at various stages of the volunteering life cycle (recruitment, training, socialisation, performance, and retirement (Alfes, Shantz, \& Saksida, 2015; Cuskelly \& Boag, 2001)), little attention has been paid to turnover during the critical socialisation stage, when turnover presents the greatest cost to the organisation: after resources have been devoted to training the volunteer, and before they have returned on the investment by performing.\ 

This article presents a predictive model of volunteer retention, which maps socialisation, expulsion, and self-exclusion based on social fit.\  The model is derived from an inductive examination of the processes of volunteer turnover during the socialisation of emergency service volunteers in Australia.\  Using a grounded theory approach, through 17 focus groups and 63 interviews with 137 volunteers across seven locations, the study identified the processes of volunteer turnover during the socialisation stage.\  The model predicts that during this stage, volunteers either stay or leave their respective units based on the level of their social fit with existing peers.\  This model contributes to theory by categorizing volunteer turnover according to the stages of the volunteering life cycle, and to practice by drawing attention to the need to consider social fit prior to investing in new volunteer training.

}, author = {Michael Jones and Yoke Berry} } @conference {bnh-3899, title = {Out of uniform (building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering): what have we learnt?}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

How can the emergency management sector build capability and enable community resilience by supporting forms of volunteering that fall outside the scope of their current volunteer and community engagement models? That {\textendash} in a nutshell - is the question that the Out of Uniform (building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering) research project was set up to answer. The project concluded in June this year, and this presentation reports on key themes that emerged across four cases studies of {\textquoteleft}out-of-scope{\textquoteright} volunteering in action, all of which reinforce in various ways the role and importance of coproduction.

The cases studied were diverse in context and characteristics. Despite their wide variation, however, quite a number of shared themes were found across them that included: the value of coproduction, the impact of job mobility amongst public officials, the shapes and styles of volunteer leadership, the rising importance of brokering actors, groups, networks and platforms; and the challenge of sustainability.

Taken together, these findings reveal some surprising areas where emergency management organisations can make changes to the way they engage with communities and volunteers (both affiliated and not) that can reap potentially significant capacity-building and community resilience benefits. Many of the changes are likely to concern changes to internal organisational processes, structures, and training to build capacity for establishing, maintaining and resourcing co-productive relationships with actors, groups and organisations that have not been traditionally involved in emergency management in the past.Context

The highly demanding nature of managing emergencies can disrupt effective team performance. These disruptions can lead to an impaired operational response, creating risks to public safety, property and other assets. This project is helping to foster cohesive teamwork when it is most needed {\textendash} when teams are responding under pressure to emergency events.\ 

}, author = {J Whittaker and Tarn Kruger and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-4217, title = {Out of uniform - building resilience through non-traditional volunteering: annual report 2016-17}, number = {327}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The traditional model of emergency volunteering in Australia is based on formal, accredited volunteers who are affiliated with emergency management organisations, and are mostly involved in response and recovery roles [e.g. 14]. This form of volunteering is crucial and has many strengths. However, planning solely for this form of volunteering by EMOs excludes the potentially large number of people who are motivated to volunteer before, during and after emergencies in other, less ongoing and more informal ways, and without direct affiliation with established emergency management organisations (EMOs).

At the same time, the landscape of volunteering is undergoing significant change, in Australia and internationally. Large-scale socioeconomic changes have recast the conditions in which people volunteer in the 21st Century [12, 15]. As a result, emergency managers can expect to engage with a much wider and more diverse range of volunteers than in the past. These volunteers bring new opportunities, but also risks.

There are considerable benefits to be realised from greater engagement with these more diverse and, from the perspective of established emergency management organisations (EMOs) {\textquoteleft}non-traditional{\textquoteright}, emergency volunteers. With disaster risk increasing worldwide due to population growth, urban development and climate change [16] it is likely that non-traditional volunteers will provide much of the additional surge capacity required to respond to more frequent emergencies and disasters in the future. There is also a significant and largely untapped opportunity for EMOs to contribute to community resilience by supporting non-traditional emergency volunteers in new ways.

}, issn = {327}, author = {John Handmer and J Whittaker and Tarn Kruger} } @article {bnh-7444, title = {An owner-driven reconstruction in Bihar}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, abstract = {

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify {\textquotedblleft}key processes{\textquotedblright} during the owner-driven reconstruction (ODR) process by implementing agencies, to enhance the long-term disaster-resilience of housing and community.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed methods methodology and {\textquotedblleft}case-study{\textquotedblright} approach is adopted to compare good practice reconstruction projects in India in the past 15 years. This paper discusses findings from investigations conducted in two settlements of Bihar {\textendash} Orlaha and Puraini, after major flooding in 2008. The sites were visited during 2012 and 2014.

Findings

One of the key processes that lead to the success of the ODR process in terms of its effect on the long-term disaster-resilience in Bihar is community mobilisation it functions primarily as an information and communication device promoting the success (or otherwise) of the reconstruction project.

Originality/value

The findings are based on empirical evidence gathered during in-field investigations and interviews to post-disaster reconstructed villages. While these findings represent a snapshot of diverse and complex disaster experiences in the Indian context, the comparison offers insight on how to turn the rhetoric surrounding {\textquotedblleft}owner-driven{\textquotedblright} or {\textquotedblleft}built back better{\textquotedblright} into positive long-term community outcomes.

}, keywords = {Built Environment, owner driven, Participatory approach, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2015-0051}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2015-0051/full/html}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Beau Beza} } @inbook {bnh-7235, title = {Participation for Disaster Resilience}, booktitle = {Community Engagement in Post-Disaster Recovery}, year = {2017}, publisher = {Routledge Taylor and Francis Group}, organization = {Routledge Taylor and Francis Group}, chapter = {6}, address = {United Kingdom}, abstract = {

This chapter addresses the question of how to enhance community participation in post-disaster housing reconstruction in order to enhance future {\textquoteleft}disaster resilience{\textquoteright}. Four {\textquoteleft}good practice{\textquoteright} reconstruction projects from the Indian states of Gujarat and Bihar are compared, to examine the long-term impact of different participatory approaches. The findings suggest a need to address strategic issues that go beyond one project life cycle of reconstruction projects. These findings are organised into an {\textquotedblleft}operational framework for community participation for resilience{\textquotedblright}, which can hopefully be a valuable tool for a wide range of disaster management agencies.

}, keywords = {community engagement, disaster, Housing, recovery, resilience}, issn = {9781315534213}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315534213}, url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781315534213/chapters/10.4324/9781315534213-6}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @article {bnh-4337, title = {Planned and ultimate actions of horse owners facing a bushfire threat: Implications for natural disaster preparedness and survivability}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {

During disasters, the presence of companion animals is an identified risk for household relocation failure as well as premature return. In Australia, where bushfires are a regular summer threat, householders are encouraged to develop a written bushfire action plan that includes pets and animals. As part of this plan, householders are recommended to relocate themselves and their animals at least the day before a forecast catastrophic fire day. This advice is particularly relevant for horse owners, as the challenges and risks associated with evacuating horses are arguably much more complex than those for smaller companion animals. However, there is little empirical research on the plans and responses of horse owners to bushfire threat. In this paper, we present qualitative findings of semi-structured interviews with 21 households threatened by one of three significant fire events in South Australia in January 2014, all of which were responsible for a horse or pony. We describe and discuss nine different scenarios organised around intended and ultimate action. We found no apparent patterns between intentions and actions for pre-emptive relocation of horses. The extended explanations presented for each scenario provide important insight into equestrian cultures, especially in relation to plans, pre-emptive relocation, behaviour change, and {\textquoteleft}the horse community{\textquoteright} in Australia. We question whether the pre-emptive relocation of horses is over-emphasised for bushfires, and ask if scenario-based planning with contingencies might be more useful and realistic.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420917303369}, author = {Kirrilly Thompson and Laura Haigh and Bradley P Smith} } @article {bnh-3553, title = {Plastic hinge length for lightly reinforced rectangular concrete walls}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {1-32}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

This research investigates the plastic hinge length in lightly reinforced rectangular walls typically found in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity. Poor performance has been exhibited by lightly reinforced concrete walls in past earthquake events. A series of finite element analyses have been carried out which demonstrate that if the longitudinal reinforcement ratio in the wall is below a certain threshold value, there will not be sufficient reinforcement to cause secondary cracking, and instead fracture of the longitudinal reinforcement at a single crack could occur. A plastic hinge length equation has been derived based on the results from the numerical simulations.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2017.1286619}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13632469.2017.1286619}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4244, title = {Policies, instutions and governance of natural hazards: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {309}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The resilience of a community is dependent on more than just engineering and preparation.\ \ \  Government policies, institutions and governance arrangements fundamentally affect how individuals and communities prepare for, respond to and recover from natural hazard events.\  Understanding relevant institutions and how they influence disaster management is essential to develop whole of government and whole of community understanding of risks and how to manage them.

This research project has shed light on policy, institutional and governance arrangements with a view to developing new approaches to shared responsibility (COAG 2011) to increase community resilience to all natural hazards.\  This project will deliver:

}, issn = {309}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-5191, title = {Predicting the failure of timber bridges by using current inspection reports}, journal = {Engineering for Public Works}, volume = {7}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {85-89}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

There is a large timber bridge stock in service within Australia and currently over 300 timber bridges on Queensland state controlled roads. Majority of these timber bridges are in the latter half of their service life and require constant maintenance as the timber components deteriorate over time. Detailed level 2 inspections are performed as part of the bridge management systems used by road authorities. This paper discusses a simple method to use an inspection report to predict the chance of the failure of the bridge in a given number of years. Although the Markov process adopted in this research was based on inspection reports for several timber bridges for three time periods, it can further be refined using a data base of inspections for many time periods and environmental conditions. The proposed method is demonstrated using an inspection report for a hypothetical timber bridge.

}, url = {https://issuu.com/ipweaqld/docs/epw_september_2017}, author = {Weena Lokuge and Matthew Wilson and Huu Tran and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-4208, title = {Pre-disaster multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation model: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {328}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on Australian economy, across sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, manufacturing, utilities, construction, retail trade, transport and health care. The economic impacts of natural disasters can often be overlooked in management planning as the effects are not always immediate. A substantial problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact of natural hazards, considering all the affected sections of the economy. This effort should take into account not only the primary impacts of natural disasters but also secondary impact due to economic loss.

The main objective of the overall research program is to estimate the sector-disaggregated economic effects of the QLD Floods 2010-11, the Black Saturday Bushfires 2009, and Cyclone Oswald 2013 to support decision-making in the design of post-disaster recovery interventions. The evidence so generated will provide policy makers with indications through which they can alleviate the potential negative effects of natural disasters at the sectoral level.

In the first phase of the BNHCRC (2014-2017), the project placed the microscope on Queensland Floods 2010-2011 at the individual level, with a preceding {\textquoteleft}introductory{\textquoteright} analysis of the nation-level effects of floods and bushfires on Gross State Product, unemployment and inflation in Australia. The year 2016-17 has witnessed major progress in terms of finalizing the case study on Queensland Floods 2010-11 as well as reporting the nation-level effects of floods and bushfires in a form that can be disseminated to a wider audience.

In the second phase of the BNHCRC (2017-2020), the project will additionally focus on Black Saturday Bushfires 2009 and Cyclone Oswald 2013 to present the impact of different types and scales of natural disasters on different sectors of the economy. This phase will see the investigation not only of individuals but also of business firms, to provide a full picture of the disaster impacts. It will also extend the Queensland Floods analysis to firms.

In both phases the research program utilises the rich Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census data as the main workhorse of the analysis. The project also employs solid experimental research design comparing the outcomes on affected individuals and firms with those of unaffected ones.

Taken together, this project aims to assist Australian Federal and State governments with identifying sector-specific economics effects of natural disasters both at individual and firm levels. It is expected that the findings of this project will act as a catalyst in designing post-disaster recovery interventions of Federal and State policymakers that will not only be customised to directly support individuals but also assist firms to ensure their survival and keep their workforce employed. Moreover, investigation of the vulnerability dimensions is expected to enhance our understanding of the socio-economics of natural disasters and help formulate public policies in a way that will tangibly minimise the disaster risks.

In 2016-2017, the project has achieved several outcomes in terms of end-user engagement. The research team has organised three workshops with end-users: one with the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), and two with the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) of the Attorney-General{\textquoteright}s Department (AGD). The main objective of the latter two was to discuss the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) in connection with the new evidence found on the 2010-11 Queensland Floods case study.

}, issn = {328}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-4388, title = {Priorities to guide hazards research}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

The most significant natural hazard emergency management issues Australia faces have been drawn up by leaders from the sector to guide research over the next decade.

A set of priorities for national research into natural hazards was launched by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC in July and is now online for broader discussion. The priorities arose out of a series of national workshops with the emergency management sector that led to consideration by the Australia-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee.

This is the first time such a future-thinking exercise has been undertaken on natural hazards research in Australia.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-06}, author = {David Bruce} } @article {bnh-5165, title = {A probabilistic study of ground motion simulation for Bangkok soil}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {1925-1943}, chapter = {1925}, abstract = {

Due to the soft soil condition, it has been found that buildings in Bangkok locating 200\ km away from epicentral of an earthquake can be damaged as a result of high ground motion (e.g. earthquakes of magnitudes 5.3{\textendash}5.9 in 1983). Because of rapid urban expansion and population growth in cities with soft soil condition, such as Bangkok, the assessment of seismic vulnerability of building structures becomes necessary. The purpose of this study is to quantify variability and develop attenuation and amplification models of ground motions for Bangkok sites. First, by analysing soil profile of Bangkok using Latin Hypercube sampling technique, critical attenuation and amplification characteristics, such as peak ground acceleration, ground motion intensity, frequency content and significant ground duration, were obtained. Then, the statistical information on the attenuation and amplification models of these characteristics was established and used to conduct a series of non-linear seismic analysis of a typical four storey commercial building in Bangkok. The research outcomes demonstrate that the developed models are capable of predicting the damage indices of buildings in Bangkok under different earthquake intensities and epicentral distances.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0058-6}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10518-016-0058-6}, author = {Nilupa Herath and Priyan Mendis and Lihai Zhang} } @article {bnh-3229, title = {A radiative transfer model-based method for the estimation of grassland aboveground biomass}, journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation}, volume = {54}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

This paper presents a novel method to derive grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) based on the PROSAILH (PROSPECT\ +\ SAILH) radiative transfer model (RTM). Two variables, leaf area index (LAI, m2m-2, defined as a one-side leaf area per unit of horizontal ground area) and dry matter content (DMC, gcm-2, defined as the dry matter per leaf area), were retrieved using PROSAILH and reflectance data from Landsat 8 OLI product. The result of LAI\ {\texttimes}\ DMC was regarded as the estimated grassland AGB according to their definitions. The well-known ill-posed inversion problem when inverting PROSAILH was alleviated using ecological criteria to constrain the simulation scenario and therefore the number of simulated spectra. A case study of the presented method was applied to a plateau grassland in China to estimate its AGB. The results were compared to those obtained using an exponential regression, a partial least squares regression (PLSR) and an artificial neural networks (ANN). The RTM-based method offered higher accuracy (R2\ =\ 0.64 and RMSE\ =\ 42.67\ gm-2) than the exponential regression (R2\ =\ 0.48 and RMSE\ =\ 41.65\ gm-2) and the ANN (R2\ =\ 0.43 and RMSE\ =\ 46.26\ gm-2). However, the proposed method offered similar performance than PLSR as presented better determination coefficient than PLSR (R2\ =\ 0.55) but higher RMSE (RMSE\ =\ 37.79\ gm-2). Although it is still necessary to test these methodologies in other areas, the RTM-based method offers greater robustness and reproducibility to estimate grassland AGB at large scale without the need to collect field measurements and therefore is considered the most promising methodology.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2016.10.002}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243416301726}, author = {Xingwen Quan and Binbin He and Marta Yebra and Changming Yin and Zhanmang Liao and Xueting Zhang and Xing Li} } @article {bnh-3823, title = {Rapid response report: study of heatwave impacts on NSW Northern Rivers region 2017}, number = {255}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During January and February 2017 there were three distinct periods of severe or extreme heat that affected eastern Australia. This study explores the impacts of the heatwaves in January, 2017 on residents in the northern rivers region of New South Wales (NSW). In this heatwave, daily maximum temperatures above 35{\textdegree}C were recorded in many sites, with temperatures in some parts of NSW and Queensland exceeding 40{\textdegree}C. A maximum temperature of 41.3{\textdegree}C was recorded in Casino and Grafton, and Grafton experienced seven days over 35{\textdegree}C between 10 and 20 January. The Heatwave Service at the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) provided forecasts and monitored conditions during this heatwave, and these forecasts were further disseminated by other agencies and organisations, as well as through the media. A telephone survey of 150 residents in northern NSW was conducted shortly after the heatwave to better understand the impacts of heatwaves, how heatwave warnings were used by residents in affected locations, what preparedness or protective actions were taken, and what further information and mediums residents would like to receive in future events. Key findings include that residents{\textquoteright} main concerns about heatwaves are personal discomfort and effects on their health and wellbeing. The main coping strategies used are air-conditioning, fans, and keeping hydrated. Most residents received warning of the heatwave through traditional media (e.g., TV or radio), and 45\% took actions to reduce the likely impact of the heat. Respondents who did not prepare for the heatwave explained that extreme heat is just a part of summer and that they adjust their activities accordingly during the heatwave. Suggested ways to support better preparedness and reduce the likelihood or severity of impacts tended to focus on making air-conditioning more affordable and accessible, particularly for vulnerable groups, as well as ensuring that cool refuges (e.g., swimming pools) are open and affordable during heatwaves. These suggestions indicate an emphasis on coping strategies during extreme heat events. However, some respondents also identified long term measures to reduce risks: for instance, guidelines and incentives for house design, solar panels and insulation, and the government {\textquoteleft}taking action on{\textquoteright} climate change.

}, issn = {255}, author = {Matalena Tofa and Andrew Gissing and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Smith, C.} } @article {bnh-3824, title = {Rapid response report: study of heatwave impacts on residents and businesses in western Sydney}, number = {256}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During January and February 2017 there were three distinct periods of severe or extreme heat that affected eastern Australia. This study explores the impacts of the heatwaves in February 2017 on residents and businesses in Western Sydney, New South Wales (NSW). In this heatwave, the average temperature across NSW was 42.4{\textdegree}C on 10 February and 44.0{\textdegree}C on 11 February. In Parramatta North, the temperature reached 44.5{\textdegree}C, setting a new February peak temperature record, while Penrith reached 46.9{\textdegree}C on 11 February. The Heatwave Service at the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) provided forecasts and monitored conditions during this heatwave, and these forecasts were further disseminated by other agencies and organisations, as well as through the media. A telephone survey of 100 residents and 60 businesses in Western Sydney was conducted shortly after the heatwave to better understand the impacts of heatwaves, how heatwave warnings were used by residents and businesses in affected locations, what preparedness or protective actions were taken, and what further information and mediums residents and businesses would like to receive in future events. Key findings include that most residents and businesses consider heatwave to be a high or extreme risk, and that their main concerns were the likely impacts on health and wellbeing of themselves, family members, or employees. The main impacts on residents of the February heat event included personal discomfort, feeling unwell, and concern for electricity costs. The impacts on businesses varied, with some noting minimal effects, and others describing impacts on productivity and turnover, and adjustments to their work to ensure worker safety in extreme heat. The main coping strategies used by both residents and businesses are air-conditioning and fans. Around 70\% of residents and 78\% of businesses received warning of the heatwave, and this was primarily through traditional media (e.g., TV or radio). Of these, 64\% of residents and approximately 50\% of businesses took actions to reduce the likely impact of the heat, such as rescheduling activities and providing advice to staff. Suggested ways to support better preparedness and reduce the likelihood or severity of impacts tended to focus on reducing vulnerability through improved home and workplace design and reducing vulnerability due social or economic factors. Specific suggestions from residents included subsidies for installing air-conditioning or solar panels, subsidies for electricity, and ensuring that elderly and low-income residents have affordable ways to keep cool during heatwaves.

}, issn = {256}, author = {Matalena Tofa and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5092, title = {RC walls in Australia: reconnaissance survey of industry and literature review of experimental testing}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {18}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

This paper presents the findings of a recent reconnaissance survey of the reinforced concrete (RC) construction industry in Australia. The survey involved the review of the structural documentation of a set of case study buildings constructed in Australia. The types of walls and observed methods of detailing are documented. Upper and lower bound values for typical wall attributes have been presented which researchers can utilise to design laboratory test specimens or perform parametric computer studies, to ensure their study accurately represents real-world conditions. A literature review of experimental testing of the lateral in-plane capacity of RC walls is included. The literature review identified 81 experimental studies, in which 501 RC wall test specimens have been tested worldwide. It is shown that very little experimental studies have been performed on RC walls that match what is being constructed in Australia.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2017.1315207}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2017.1315207}, author = {Scott Menegon and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-3800, title = {Recovery volunteering after the Pinery fire, South Australia 2015: an explorative case study}, number = {254}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of this exploratory study was to better understand the breadth of disaster recovery volunteering following the Pinery Fire in South Australia in 2015, with a particular focus on faith-based groups. The report draws upon experiences and perspectives from a key group of individuals (8) involved in the recovery phase of the fire. The study sought to learn from the experiences and perspectives of these individuals. The study also focused on the disaster recovery structure in South Australia within which this volunteering is embedded

The move toward engaging volunteers and NGOs not traditionally involved in disaster recovery alongside those with more established roles can be of benefit in a range of ways. The pool of volunteers to assist impacted communities will obviously be greater. Many of the members from community development and faith-based organisations have skills and approvals to volunteer and undertake a breadth of tasks and can be well-suited to provide much needed social support. However, an influx of people can put pressure on administrative processes, such as timely placement of new volunteers. In addition, organisations can incur costs undertaking recovery roles and this cost shifting of financial burden from disasters is one they do not want to, or cannot support. Furthermore, as NGOs their autonomy is important because they are NGOs and independent of government and this arrangement they do not wish to forgo even during disaster recovery.

NGOs with a common goal to assist in the recovery generally worked well together, although some rivalries and jostling about processes occurred. The experiences and reflections of interviewees about the recovery processes for the Pinery Fire were in general very positive. They acknowledge their involvement in fires like Pinery and the collaborative approaches such as South Australia{\textquoteright}s Stakeholder Forum for disaster recovery can prepare them to better share data; streamline processes and differentiate roles for future events.

}, issn = {254}, author = {Tarn Kruger and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-5090, title = {A refined design spectrum model for regions of lower seismicity}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {18}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, abstract = {

This paper presents a refined site classification scheme and a design spectrum (DS) model for different site conditions, with site natural period as the key classification parameter. The refined model has a particular emphasis on the phenomenon of resonant-like amplification behaviour in soil sites, which have not been explicitly considered in any existing code models. The need to address the effects of soil resonance and increased displacement demand is particularly justified in regions of lower seismicity, where structures are typically of limited ductility with low energy dissipation capability. Significantly, the mitigating effects of a very flexible soil site resulting in reduction in the level of seismic demand on low-rise buildings is a distinctive feature of the model which has been well validated by comparison with results obtained from computational site response analysis of soil columns derived from real borehole records, as well as from strong motion data recorded in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2017.1297529}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2017.1297529}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Nelson Lam} } @conference {bnh-3946, title = {Research proceedings from the 2017 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC annual conference 2017}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The full research proceedings\ from the 2017 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference, held in Sydney from 4 - 6 September. The document contains two sections. Section one is peer reviewed, full conference papers. Section two is non-peer reviewed extended abstracts.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-9-3}, author = {Rumsewicz, M} } @article {bnh-4195, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events at the coast - storm surge: annual report 2016-17}, number = {306}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the problem?

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

The storm events that occurred on the southeast coast of Australia during 1974 are the most significant and recent in memory in terms of coastal impact associated with clustered events. The clustering in that year occurred as a series of at least 10 storms between January and June. Not all of these events led to coastal erosion, but the sequence likely played some role in setting the pre-conditions of the beach that ultimately led to the erosion towards the end of this six month period. The question therefore is to determine the beach response to clustered event sets and the nature of how those events ultimately lead to erosion.

The problem is complex as the response to the forcing will vary {\textendash} there will be a spectrum from inundation to erosion, and further, there will be varying factors that drive the erosion (e.g. long-shore, cross-shore) that are functions of the location and the event.

Why it is important?

Australia{\textquoteright}s population is concentrated along the coastline, with over 85\% within 50 km of the coastline (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001). In New South Wales for example, the NSW Government has identified 15 erosional hotspots (Kinsela and Hanslow 2013), along its 2000 km of coastline. Of the approximately 1000 km of erodible sandy beaches (open coast only), 28\% is within 220 m of property. In addition to the severe wind and flooding impacts that Tropical Cyclone Debbie imparted in Queensland and New South Wales in March and April 2017, TC Debbie also caused erosion from Mackay to the Gold Coast. Any subsequent storm(s) will potentially worsen the situation at these locations, particularly if they occur before the beaches have had time to rebuild naturally. A coastal engineer at Mooloolaba (Sunshine Coast) indicated that beaches had been protected by the available large volumes of sand as the summer has been absent of the usual consistent storms[1].

How have we approached the problem?

The study will quantify the risk of these clustered events by determining the nature of the hazard, the elements that are exposed to this hazard and their resultant vulnerability. Combining the frequency of the hazard with its impact will enable the risk to be quantified. This risk can then be managed through the coastal and disaster management processes of all stakeholders.

The study has been focused on two case studies, Old Bar beach in NSW and the beaches of metropolitan Adelaide. These sites were selected in consultation with the project end-users on the basis that they are actively being managed as erosion {\textquoteleft}hotspots{\textquoteright}. The physical setting of each site also presents an opportunity to advance our understanding of shoreline processes. The project has adopted the coastal compartment framework as the functional unit for understanding shoreline response at a range of spatial scales, and detailed geomorphological site investigations are being used as input to the beach response modelling.

Together, the risk and coastal compartments framework are powerful in terms of situating the assessment at local, regional and national scales.


[1] Beach erosion to continue in ex-TC Debbie{\textquoteright}s wake 1 April 2017 Sunshine Coast Daily
https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/beach-erosion-to-continue-in-ex-tc-debbies-wake/3161769/

What is the problem?

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

The storm events that occurred on the southeast coast of Australia during 1974 are the most significant and recent in memory in terms of coastal impact associated with clustered events. The clustering in that year occurred as a series of at least 10 storms between January and June. Not all of these events led to coastal erosion, but the sequence likely played some role in setting the pre-conditions of the beach that ultimately led to the erosion towards the end of this six month period. The question therefore is to determine the beach response to clustered event sets and the nature of how those events ultimately lead to erosion.

The problem is complex as the response to the forcing will vary {\textendash} there will be a spectrum from inundation to erosion, and further, there will be varying factors that drive the erosion (e.g. long-shore, cross-shore) that are functions of the location and the event.

Why it is important?

Australia{\textquoteright}s population is concentrated along the coastline, with over 85\% within 50 km of the coastline (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001). In New South Wales for example, the NSW Government has identified 15 erosional hotspots (Kinsela and Hanslow 2013), along its 2000 km of coastline. Of the approximately 1000 km of erodible sandy beaches (open coast only), 28\% is within 220 m of property. In addition to the severe wind and flooding impacts that Tropical Cyclone Debbie imparted in Queensland and New South Wales in March and April 2017, TC Debbie also caused erosion from Mackay to the Gold Coast. Any subsequent storm(s) will potentially worsen the situation at these locations, particularly if they occur before the beaches have had time to rebuild naturally. A coastal engineer at Mooloolaba (Sunshine Coast) indicated that beaches had been protected by the available large volumes of sand as the summer has been absent of the usual consistent storms[1].

How have we approached the problem?

The study will quantify the risk of these clustered events by determining the nature of the hazard, the elements that are exposed to this hazard and their resultant vulnerability. Combining the frequency of the hazard with its impact will enable the risk to be quantified. This risk can then be managed through the coastal and disaster management processes of all stakeholders.

The study has been focused on two case studies, Old Bar beach in NSW and the beaches of metropolitan Adelaide. These sites were selected in consultation with the project end-users on the basis that they are actively being managed as erosion {\textquoteleft}hotspots{\textquoteright}. The physical setting of each site also presents an opportunity to advance our understanding of shoreline processes. The project has adopted the coastal compartment framework as the functional unit for understanding shoreline response at a range of spatial scales, and detailed geomorphological site investigations are being used as input to the beach response modelling.

Together, the risk and coastal compartments framework are powerful in terms of situating the assessment at local, regional and national scales.


[1] Beach erosion to continue in ex-TC Debbie{\textquoteright}s wake 1 April 2017 Sunshine Coast Daily
https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/beach-erosion-to-continue-in-ex-tc-debbies-wake/3161769/

}, issn = {306}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-5085, title = {Retrieval of forest fuel moisture content using a coupled radiative transfer model}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {95}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, pages = {290-302}, chapter = {290}, abstract = {

Forest fuel moisture content (FMC) dynamics are paramount to assessing the forest wildfire risk and its behavior. This variable can be retrieved from remotely sensed data using a\ radiative transfer\ model (RTM). However, previous studies generally treated the background of\ forest canopy\ as soil surface while ignored the fact that the soil may be covered by grass canopy. In this study, we focused on retrieving FMC of such forestry structure by coupling two RTMs: PROSAIL and PRO-GeoSail. The spectra of lower grass canopy were firstly simulated by the PROSAIL model, which was then coupled into the PRO-GeoSail model. The results showed that the accuracy level of retrieved FMC using this coupled model was better than that when the PRO-GeoSail model used alone. Further analysis revealed that low FMC condition fostered by fire weather condition had an important influence on the breakout of a fire during the study period.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304431}, author = {Xingwen Quan and Binbin He and Marta Yebra and Changming Yin and Zhanmang Liao and Xing Li} } @article {bnh-4220, title = {A review of emergency and fire management training available for remote communities in northern Australia based on the views of local inhabitants}, number = {350}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report reviews the training preferences for fire and emergency management training for remote communities in northern Australia. It then sets out a framework for development of a new training curriculum based on Skill Sets for north Australian fire management and savanna burning. The report is based on the results of some review of existing materials and consultation with land owners and managers, government agency representatives, Aboriginal Land Councils and Ranger groups as well as academics and VET program developers and trainers.

}, issn = {350}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-3916, title = {Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard risk reduction: current status and future research directions}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {96}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {378-409}, chapter = {378}, abstract = {

Natural hazard risk is largely projected to increase in the future, placing growing responsibility on decision makers to proactively reduce risk. Consequently, decision support systems (DSSs) for natural hazard risk reduction (NHRR) are becoming increasingly important. In order to provide directions for future research in this growing area, a comprehensive classification system for the review of NHRR-DSSs is introduced, including scoping, problem formulation, the analysis framework, user and organisational interaction with the system, user engagement, monitoring and evaluation. A review of 101 papers based on this classification system indicates that most effort has been placed on identifying areas of risk and assessing economic consequences resulting from direct losses. However, less effort has been placed on testing risk-reduction options and considering future changes to risk. Furthermore, there was limited evidence within the reviewed papers on the success of DSSs in practice and whether stakeholders participated in DSS development and use.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.042}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216311239}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Aaron Zecchin and James Daniell and Andreas Schafer and Hedwig van Delden and Bijan Khazai and Michael O{\textquoteright}Flaherty and Charles Newland} } @article {bnh-3848, title = {A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, abstract = {

Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways). Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up) and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans

}, doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316301188?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher J. White and Andrew H. C. Chan and Christopher Stephen Watson} } @article {bnh-4192, title = {Reviewing high-risk and high-consequence decisions: finding a safer way}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, chapter = {24}, abstract = {

This paper critiques the adversarial processes used in inquiries following significant natural hazard events, in particular bushfires. Shortcomings identified with current practices suggest post-event inquiries should adopt restorative practices rather than traditional adversarial procedures. Restorative justice is a concept established in the area of criminal law. It is argued that the use of restorative practices could assist in formulating inquiries that would assist all parties to collectively resolve how to deal with a aftermath of the disaster and deal with its implications for the future. Restorative practices would enable a focus on both short- and long-term recovery.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-16}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5278, title = {Rhetoric or reality: coordination in a time of crisis}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {219}, school = {University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

In recent years Australia has experienced a number of significant natural disasters which have placed a clear focus on how governments at different levels respond to these events. Within this context there has been a clear emphasis on understanding the role of government in mitigating and responding to crises. Large scale natural disasters represent a significant test of the public sector{\textquoteright}s ability to respond in a coordinated and efficient way in the face of adversity. This comes against a backdrop in Australia where trust in government from its citizens continues to decline and where the public retain high expectations of government{\textquoteright}s ability to plan, prepare and respond to disasters. Crises are also occurring not in a vacuum but where changes in the public sector mean that whole of government or connected forms of working are a highly pervasive mantra. Crisis responses oblige the different layers of government: political, bureaucratic and operational response agencies to work together to confront these events and require collective action. There is a strong recognition that the response to disasters is beyond the capacity of any single person, agency or department. To date, there has been little work undertaken on how whole of government structures impact on the management and response to crises and how these may shape the overall perception of a {\textquoteleft}successful{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}failed{\textquoteright} response. As a result of this context, this thesis seeks to review and explore the responses to the 2009 Victorian bushfires and the 2011 Queensland floods by understanding how each state confronted these events and how they can be seen to epitomise the challenges of crisis management in Australia. Drawing on document analysis and elite interviews from each state, the thesis seeks to understand whether public commitments to whole of government in crises are rhetoric or reality? It will address this question through a lens which seeks to understand the impact of key themes such as: whole of government, crisis management, leadership, coordination, organisational culture, social capital and institutions in meditating the responses and outcomes of these events.

}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/16311/2/2016_George_Carayannopoulos_Thesis.pdf}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @article {bnh-4409, title = {Rhetoric or reality: Coordination in a time of crisis}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

This document summarises the outcomes of doctoral research conducted by Geroge Carayannopoulos.

}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @article {bnh-5403, title = {Risk of post-fire metal mobilization into surface water resources: A review}, journal = {Science of the total Environment}, volume = {599-600}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

One of the significant economic benefits to communities around the world of having pristine forest\ catchments\ is the supply of substantial quantities of high quality potable water. This supports a saving of around US$ 4.1 trillion per year globally by limiting the cost of expensive\ drinking water treatments\ and provision of unnecessary infrastructure. Even low levels of contaminants specifically organics and metals in catchments when in a mobile state can reduce these economic benefits by seriously affecting the water quality.\ Contamination\ and contaminant mobility can occur through natural and anthropogenic activities including\ forest fires. Moderate to high intensity forest fires are able to alter\ soil properties\ and release sequestered metals from sediments,\ soil organic matter\ and fragments of vegetation. In addition, the increase in post-fire\ erosion rate\ by rainfall runoff and strong winds facilitates the rapid transport of these metals downslope and downstream. The subsequent metal deposition in distal soil and water bodies can influence surface water quality with potential impacts to the larger ecosystems inclusive of negative effects on humans. This is of substantial concern as 4 billion hectares of forest catchments provide high quality water to global communities. Redressing this problem requires quantification of the potential effects on water resources and instituting rigorous fire and\ environmental management\ plans to mitigate deleterious effects on catchment areas. This paper is a review of the current state of the art literature dealing with the risk of post-fire mobilization of the metals into surface water resources. It is intended to inform discussion on the preparation of suitable management plans and policies during and after fire events in order to maintain potable water quality in a cost-effective manner. In these times of climate fluctuation and increased incidence of fires, the need for development of new policies and management frameworks are of heighted significance.

}, keywords = {Catchment, Ecosystem, environment, forest fire, Metal, Water resources}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.096}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717311968}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-3802, title = {Risk ownership for natural hazards: summary of key research findings}, number = {250}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides a summary of the risk ownership research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project {\textquotedblleft}Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability at the institutional scale{\textquotedblright} and draws upon the following reports and papers:

}, issn = {250}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-3801, title = {Risk ownership framework for emergency management policy and practice}, number = {252}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The purpose of this framework is to assist this process with guidance that supports practitioners by providing a starting point for understanding and clarifying risk ownership as part of strategic risk planning. It does this through a framework that outlines:

The framework process uses a flexible, values-based approach that shows how to identify the most important values in a variety of settings, to assess how those values are at risk from natural hazards, and to identify and evaluate actions to preserve and recover those values in the face of natural hazard risk. A list of diverse evaluation tools and methods to do this are also summarised. The process is designed to add to, and be integrated into, current risk planning assessments. Although this framework uses natural hazards as the focus, it can be applied in other areas of emergency management where strategic approaches to systemic risk are needed.

Aspects of this framework may be uncomfortable because they challenge established forms of thinking and acting, so it is important for those using this framework to approach it through a change management/transformation lens. What is possible and when will be dictated by situational contexts and available resources. As with all innovation, developing the new skills and knowledge needed will help people understand and accept the changes they may need to make to undertake new and unfamiliar activities.

This type of planning goes beyond surviving an event and rebuilding back to focusing on sustaining the values we treasure most. It is about planning for the future we want to have in the face of change.

}, issn = {252}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Margarita Kumnick and Greg Christopher and Nicholas Casey} } @article {bnh-5131, title = {The role of prior experience in informing and motivating earthquake preparedness}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {22}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {179-193}, chapter = {179}, abstract = {

Motivating household preparedness for\ earthquakes\ can be difficult, especially given the infrequent and varying nature of major events. Past research has shown that people{\textquoteright}s experiences contribute to their beliefs about whether, and how, they should prepare for earthquakes. Direct experience of a disaster can be a strong motivator of preparedness; however, most people will not directly experience a large damaging earthquake in their lifetimes. They instead need to rely on experience of small earthquakes, experience of different disasters, adverse life experiences (e.g. accidents), or vicarious experience. This paper explores the influence of such experiences on earthquake preparedness. The research found that experience has seven different influences on the preparedness process including: prompting thinking and talking; raising awareness and knowledge; helping individuals understand the consequences of a disaster; developing beliefs; developing preparedness; influencing emotions and feelings; and prompting community interaction on disaster issues.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.03.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916303296}, author = {Julia Becker and Paton, Douglas and David Johnston and Kevin Ronan and John McClure} } @article {bnh-4199, title = {Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazard scenario planning for northern Australia: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {314}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Savanna fire management and BNH scenario planning for northern Australia project is part of a larger suite of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University focused broadly on {\textquoteleft}Building community resilience in northern Australia{\textquoteright}. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote Indigenous communities, and identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that can contribute to enhancing community development and resilience.

We report here on activities undertaken in 2016-17 for four sub-projects: Savanna fire management, Management of flammable high biomass grassy weeds, Gulf fire management, and Scenario Planning.

The Savanna fire management sub-project (undertaken by Dr Andrew Edwards CDU) commenced late in 2013 and provided its final report through the current reporting year. The sub-project continued with the work on savanna-wide fire severity mapping, and assessing the implications and possibilities of using fire severity to replace seasonality in a revised greenhouse gas emissions abatement methodology. In this component we undertook a much-needed assessment of tree mortality with respect to high severity fires to quantify this phenomenon, and published this information in the international literature. The sub-project is developing a framework for a Savanna-wide Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting tool.

The Management of flammable high biomass grassy weeds, Gulf fire management sub-project (undertaken by Associate Professor Samantha Seterrfield of the University of Western Australia, and Dr Natalie Rossiter-Rachor CDU) commenced in the current reporting year and is due to be completed in 2017-2018. The project focuses on a range of invasive grasses that have spread rapidly in tropical Australia over the past two decades, substantially altering regional ecosystems. The ecological, economic and social consequences of these grasses are so significant that many are now declared at the Territory and State level, have been listed as Weeds of National Significance, and listed as a Key Threatening Process under the EPBC Act. The project is assessing the fire risk of these species and the social, environmental and economic consequences associated with high biomass grasses.

The Gulf fire management sub-project principally involves PhD studies (undertaken by Kate van Wezel CDU) exploring Indigenous women{\textquoteright}s engagement and employment opportunities with fire management and emissions abatement projects being established in the remote NT / QLD Gulf region. In 2015 the Waanyi-Garawa Indigenous Ranger group based at Borroloola commenced a partnership with the BNHCRC in a participatory action research project aimed at assessing the challenges and opportunities associated with the development of a women{\textquoteright}s caring for country program focused on Waanyi and Garawa country. This research provides a case study of successful collaborative land management in remote Indigenous Australia, and a gendered analysis of the caring for country movement as a strategy towards community resilience.\ 

Preparatory activities for the Scenario Planning sub-project, looking at how EM agencies and remote communities across northern Australia could better engage and develop effective partnerships, commenced in early 2017. Currently the project is focused on implementing scenario planning activities at two NT general locales{\textemdash}the Borroloola / Gulf region, the broader central Australian region focused on Alice Springs. Ongoing discussions are being held with QLD and WA agencies concerning the extension of project activities into those jurisdictions. This project component will now continue over the next three years as part of the new round of BNHCRC projects.

Notably, activities from the first three sub-projects listed above, as well as from other projects addressing the broader research theme of {\textquoteleft}Building community resilience in northern Australia{\textquoteright}, are due to be incorporated in a book (with the current title, {\textquoteleft}2Way Country{\textemdash}transition to a resilient North Australia land sector economy{\textquoteright}, due to be published by Magabala Press late this year.\ 

}, issn = {314}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @conference {bnh-3884, title = {Science is critical but it{\textquoteright}s not everything: our findings}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

While scientific institutions and forms of scientific knowledge are critical for understanding and mitigating natural hazard risk, there is significant debate about their real utility to policy and practice. We ask: how are practitioners able to use scientific methods and evidence to make risk reduction decisions; how useful is this science for arguing for and defending these decisions; and, what other knowledge sources might we need to reduce our risk? In this paper we provide an end-of-project synthesis of our research regarding the use of science and scientific research by risk mitigation practitioners across three case studies of bushfire and flood risk.

Publics demand and politicians promise greater certainty when it comes to understanding and mitigating the risks of traumatic natural hazard events. It is often the scientific approaches and methods that are expected to produce all the evidence required to know, and prove, the right course of action. This is when the cracks appear in the assumed linear model of\  {\textquoteleft}evidenced-based policy and practice{\textquoteright}. In this paper we interrogate what is meant by {\textquoteleft}scientific facts{\textquoteright}, how they are employed to mitigate risk, and what the consequences are for policy and practice. We find that instead of relying solely on scientific approaches, or assuring publics or governments that certainty can be found, we need to affirm the critical importance of scientific methods and results whilst also incorporating other ways of understanding. The rich learnings from the various kinds of scientific inquiry are essential for complex problem solving, but are not sufficient in isolation.

}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Liz Clarke} } @article {bnh-4210, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning: annual report 2016-17}, number = {323}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the problem?

There is a significant knowledge deficit concerning how science and other forms of knowledge are used and integrated into sector policy and practice, leading to incorrect and counter-productive misunderstandings. The emphasis on the value of scientific knowledge within the natural hazards sector {\textendash} and particularly in regards to risk mitigation {\textendash} is legitimate. However, this valuing of science has not been accompanied by research into the opportunities and challenges of using science in policy and practice. It is important to understand the inherent uncertainties in scientific results and methods so that practitioners are more able to judge and use this work, including in terms of evaluating it with respect to other knowledge sources {\textendash} social science, professional knowledge, experiential knowledge and so on.

Why is it important?

Without greater insight into how science and other forms of knowledge are used and integrated into sector policy and practice, the ability of policymakers and practitioners to explain risk mitigation and translate its scientific basis is compromised. The sector does not receive the full range of information it requires, and it continues to be vulnerable to the perpetuation of received ideas and {\textquoteleft}myths{\textquoteright} about science, its use and its utility. This work supports the capacity of risk management practitioners to explain and justify mitigation practices to other risk mitigation professionals, the public, the media, and courts and inquiry processes.

How are we going to solve it?

This research project will provide insight into the opportunities and challenges of using science in policy and practice through case studies conducted about and with practitioners. In doing so, it will provide an improved understanding of scientific integration pathways and an improved basis for articulating and defending science-based decision-making in natural hazard risk mitigation. Our findings are showing how knowledge integration and knowledge diversity are essential to navigating risk and uncertainty.

}, issn = {323}, author = {Jessica Weir and Liz Clarke} } @article {bnh-4213, title = {Scoping remote north Australian community resilience and developing governance models through action research: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {324}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}scoping remote northern Australia resilience{\textquoteright} project is part of a larger suite of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University in collaboration with the North Australian Land \& Sea
Management Alliance (NAILSMA) and the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet{\textemdash}a collective of Indigenous community researchers). Two main sub-projects under scoping resilience are: Payments for Ecosystem Services and Asset Assessment, and Governance Models for Indigenous communities. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote locations, and to identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that contribute to community resilience.

We collectively report the progress of our project work conducted during the financial year, 2016-2017, as below:
1. Research analyses, activities and assessments undertaken to assess the value of ecosystem services in northern Australia

2. Research and planning activities undertaken for developing the Governance models for Indigenous communities

1. Payment for Ecosystem Services:

2. Governance models

}, issn = {324}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @conference {bnh-3877, title = {Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Roughly half of all intense tropical cyclones experience an eyewall replacement cycle. In these events, a new eyewall forms concentrically around the original one. This secondary eyewall develops its own wind maximum, and both the secondary eye and the wind maximum typically intensify and contract, whilst the original eyewall and wind maximum weaken and eventually dissipate. While the evolution of a storm with concentric eyewalls is reasonably well understood, the mechanism or mechanisms by which the outer eyewall forms remain elusive. Understanding secondary eyewall formation is an important problem, for the subsequent eyewall replacement cycle can significantly affect the intensity of the storm, and the formation process and replacement cycle are usually associated with a major expansion of the outer wind field. Both these factors significantly affect the cyclone{\textquoteright}s impact.

We investigate a high resolution simulation of an eyewall replacement cycle. Boundary layer convergence due to friction substantially influences the evolution of the convection, and we present evidence for a positive feedback involving convection, vorticity and frictional convergence that governs the subsequent evolution of the system. In this feedback, frictional convergence strengthens the convection, stretching of vortex tubes in the buoyant updrafts increases the vorticity, and the vorticity structure of the storm determines the strength and location of the frictional updraft.\ 

Changes in the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones cause difficulties for their \ management, especially if these changes occur in the last day or two before landfall. Our improved knowledge of these processes will lead to better forecasts and mitigation.

}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4679, title = {Seismic assessment of reinforced concrete walls in Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some non-ductile reinforced concrete walls in buildings were observed to perform poorly in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, with most of the lives lost from the event caused by the collapse of buildings that relied on these structural elements for lateral support. Reinforced concrete (RC) walls are widely used throughout the Australian building stock as the primary lateral support elements. It is possible that some of these structural elements would perform poorly in a very rare earthquake due to the low standard of detailing that is currently required in Australia, as well as the low earthquake return period that the Building Code of Australia stipulates for their design. The aim of this research has been to assess the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structural walls, both rectangular and C-shaped, in Australia, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. The current Australian Standard for Earthquake Actions, AS 1170.4:2007, stipulates earthquake hazard values that are based on a seismic hazard map that is over two decades old. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted for most of the capital cities in Australia using the AUS5 model to provide a more accurate prediction of seismic hazard in Australia. The results indicate that for some cities, such as Melbourne, the response spectrum is expected to be higher for large return periods in comparison to the design spectra derived using AS 1170.4:2007. Furthermore, a site response study was conducted using equivalent linear analyses to investigate the amplification of the soil response as classified in AS 1170.4:2007 using a range of ground motions that would be expected in Australia. The primary conclusions from the study showed that there can be a large dependency of the soil amplification on the intensity of the earthquake ground motions for the softer soil classes. Moreover, the low intensity ground motions resulted in a higher spectral shape factor for soil class Be and Ce in comparison to factors derived from the current AS 1170.4:2007. An investigation was undertaken to find the displacement capacity of rectangular lightly reinforced and unconfined walls using a finite element modelling (FEM) program, with emphasis on finding the equivalent plastic hinge length. A Secondary Cracking Model (SCM) was formulated, which is a simple, mathematical model that has the potential to predict if a RC wall has a sufficient longitudinal reinforcement ratio to enable {\textquotedblleft}secondary cracking{\textquotedblright} to occur. The SCM has been validated by comparison with results from the FEM analyses. Equivalent plastic hinge length equations were derived for the rectangular walls that were observed to form secondary cracking and a single, primary crack, and this can be used to predict the displacement capacity of these walls. This estimate of the displacement capacity assumes that the inelastic rotation that occurs over the inelastic region at the base of the wall can be modelled using an equivalent plastic hinge length over which the curvature is assumed to be a constant value. These estimates of the equivalent plastic hinge length are more appropriate for RC structural walls commonly found in Australia due to the parameters used in deriving them (e.g. mechanical properties of steel, longitudinal reinforcement ratio). Moreover, some expressions for the equivalent plastic hinge length that have derived by previous researchers were found to be inappropriate for the walls analysed in this research; these were particularly inaccurate for walls that do not have sufficient longitudinal reinforcement to force secondary cracks to form. The new expressions provide better estimates of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced and unconfined walls when compared with recent experimental observations. One of the most widely used and popular cross-sections used in structural design of RC walls is the C-shaped section. There is a paucity of information available on the inelastic behaviour of such elements, and virtually no experimental data exists on non-rectangular concrete walls with inferior details commonly found in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity. An extensive number of nonlinear pushover analyses have been conducted based on FEM to investigate the seismic behaviour of C-shaped walls with detailing commonly found in Australia. Based on the FEM results, the SCM, that has been developed for rectangular walls, was found to be able to predict the potential of a single-crack forming in the walls. The direction of loading and mode of bending was found to be particularly important for the seismic performance of these walls. A non-ductile failure was observed for the majority of the walls investigated due to crushing of the unconfined concrete at the ends of the flanges in the governing direction of loading. Further analyses were conducted in the FEM program but with confined boundary ends to emphasise the importance of such structural detailing in allowing some plastic behaviour to be achieved for the governing direction of loading. The equivalent plastic hinge lengths derived from the extensive number of FEM analyses correlated poorly in comparison to the estimates from a number of expressions that exist in the literature, including a recently developed equation specifically for C-shaped walls. Therefore, equivalent plastic hinge lengths were derived from these results and for each direction of loading. A program has been written in MATLAB to derive vulnerability functions for low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings in Australia that use structural walls as their lateral force-resisting system. The city of Melbourne was used as a template for conducting the analyses, and a dataset of thousands of buildings obtained from the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) and Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE) databases was included in the assessment. The displacement capacity of each of the buildings was estimated using a moment-curvature analysis followed by a plastic hinge analysis. A range of artificial earthquakes from GENQKE and real earthquakes from the PEER ground motion database on {\textquotedblleft}weathered bedrock{\textquotedblright} conditions were obtained. These ground motions were subsequently used in equivalent linear analyses using the program SHAKE2000 to find the site response at the surface of different soil columns from shear wave velocity profiles taken predominantly from sites around Melbourne. The National Regolith Site Classification Map was used to estimate the soil conditions underlying each of the building sites. The acceleration and displacement response spectra resulting from these ground motions were used to represent the seismic demand for different site conditions in the capacity spectrum method and to ultimately estimate the vulnerability of the buildings. Thus, vulnerability functions were derived from the results.

}, keywords = {AS3600; buildings, earthquake, emergency management., Intraplate, low-to-moderate}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/192443 }, author = {Ryan D. Hoult} } @conference {bnh-4407, title = {Seismic Assessment of the RC building stock of Melbourne from rare and very rare earthquake events}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2017 Conference}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, publisher = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, organization = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

This paper focuses on a seismic vulnerability assessment of the Australian reinforced concrete structural (or shear) wall building stock using the Melbourne CBD as a case study. Each of the 1403 reinforced concrete buildings used in the assessment are assumed to be laterally supported by rectangular (peripheral) or C-shaped core walls. The assessment was conducted based on the Capacity Spectrum method, which involves a comparison between the capacity and demand curves in the form of acceleration-displacement response spectra. Plastic hinge analysis expressions were used to derive the capacity curves of the buildings. The 500-year ({\textquotedblleft}rare{\textquotedblright}) and 2500-year ({\textquotedblleft}very rare{\textquotedblright}) return period spectra derived from a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the city of Melbourne using the AUS5 earthquake recurrence model were used for the earthquake demand. The Australian Seismic Site Conditions Map from Geoscience Australia is used to find the expected site conditions for each building, while SHAKE-2000 is used to amplify the expected earthquake demand. The results show that only 34 (2.4\%) reinforced concrete buildings used in this assessment were deemed to reach the Collapse Prevention performance level for the 500-year return period event, whereas a total of 540 (38.5\%) buildings were estimated to reach this performance level for the 2500-year return period event.

}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4507, title = {Seismic fragility curves for limited ductile RC Buildings including the response of gravity frames}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {13}, abstract = {

The aim of this study is to assess the seismic performance of limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings in line with performance-based earthquake engineering principles. Limited ductile RC buildings are vulnerable to undesirable and sudden brittle failures which need to be considered in nonlinear models. The response of both the primary lateral load resisting system and the gravity load resisting system is considered. A brief description of the modelling approaches adopted to simulate the response of the core walls and frame components in a macro-finite element modelling space is provided. Using the adopted approach the seismic performance of two generic buildings with a symmetric plan is assessed. Nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted to obtain the building response to seismic ground motion. Probabilistic seismic demand model is developed using {\textquoteleft}Cloud{\textquoteright} analysis. Finally, fragility curves are developed considering four different performance limits to assess the seismic risk of the buildings.

}, keywords = {cloud analysis., fragility curves, Limited ductile reinforced concrete, moment resisting frames, seismic assessment}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/455-Anita-Amirsardari.pdf}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna and Pathmanathan Rajeev} } @article {bnh-4230, title = {Severe wind hazard preliminary assessment: Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Whitsunday Coast, Queensland, Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, institution = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie was a category 4 system that made landfall near Airlie Beach (Figure 1) on the north Queensland coast at midday on the 28th of March, 2017. As part of a continuing effort to better characterize wind fields that impact communities during severe wind events, the Cyclone Testing Station (with collaborators from the Wind Research Laboratory at The University of Queensland) deployed SWIRLnet (Surface Weather Relay and Logging Network) weather stations to the region prior to Debbie{\textquoteright}s landfall. Six SWIRLnet towers (3.2 m high anemometers placed in the communities likely to be affected) collected data continuously prior to, during and after landfall. Three towers were deployed in the Ayr/Home Hill region, two in Bowen and one in Proserpine (Figure 2). This Preliminary Assessment Report details the initial observations from these towers, compares these with Bureau of Meteorology Automatic Weather Station observations, and makes some preliminary comment on the damage to structures in stormaffected communities.

}, url = {https://www.jcu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/422951/TC-Debbie-Rapid-Assessment-Report_v8.pdf}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke and Korah Parackal and D. J. Smith and Richard Krupar III and Leblais, Alex and Humphreys, M and Spassiani, Alessio and M. S. Mason and David Roueche and David O Prevatt and David Henderson and Boughton, Geoffrey N.} } @article {bnh-3466, title = {Shared responsibility: the who, what and how}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, abstract = {

As natural disasters increase around the world and stretch the\ capacities of emergency services, national governments and\ international institutions have stressed the importance of shared\ responsibility; the idea that all actors within a society have some\ obligations in disaster management and must work collectively to\ reduce disaster risk. However, the exact balance between\ individual and government responsibility is not yet established\ and continually contested, especially after major events. In\ Australia, the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (NSDR) is\ the overarching policy framework for disaster risk management\ and aims to create resilient communities through an emphasis on\ shared responsibility and empowerment. Through a literature\ review and document analysis of the NSDR and associated policy\ documents, we clarify, organise and operationalise the necessarily\ general policy goal of shared responsibility. We first analyse how\ the NSDR conceptualises communities to discover which\ community actors are mentioned. We then identify the\ responsibilities it prescribes or implies for these different actors\ and consider the types of policy instruments that are relevant to\ disaster risk management. Our analysis reveals a tension between\ the NSDR{\textquoteright}s placement of government at the centre of disaster risk\ management, and its other, less well-explained emphasis on\ community empowerment.

}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2017.1298510}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Dovers, Steve and Michael Eburn} } @conference {bnh-3893, title = {Sheltering in place during flooding: a case study of ex cyclone Debbie}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Some anecdotal evidence of the dangers and challenges that residents face when sheltering in place during flooding exists; however, little detailed research has been conducted documenting peoples{\textquoteright} actual experiences.\  The March / April 2017 flooding in Northern NSW presented an opportunity to investigate the experiences of those who had sheltered in a home or business. The research methods included in-depth interviews and a questionnaire conducted online, over the phone and in-person with residents and business owners in the Richmond, Brunswick and Tweed river catchments. The research was conducted between April and July 2017. This paper will present findings about preparation and intentions, responses to warnings, factors influencing sheltering or evacuation behavior and the risks and challenges faced. Although early evacuation will remain the safest option in many flood situations, the research has identified that a culture of sheltering exists in the Northern Rivers area. This research provides insights into the challenges and risks of sheltering, but also to the diverse motivations and reasoning that influence how people respond to floods. This work will begin to inform how emergency services can better prepare communities, where sheltering is commonplace, for the physical and emotional realities they may face.\ 

}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Andrew Gissing and Coates, Lucinda and Roche, Kevin} } @article {bnh-4361, title = {Simulating the effectiveness of prescribed burning at altering wildfire behaviour in Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is a widely accepted wildfire hazard reduction technique; however, knowledge of its effectiveness remains limited. To address this, we employ simulations of a widely used fire behaviour model across the ecologically diverse Australian island state of Tasmania. We simulate three broad scenarios: (1) no fuel treatment, (2) a maximal treatment, with the most possible prescribed burning within ecological constraints, and (3) 12 hypothetically more implementable state-wide prescribed-burning plans. In all simulations, we standardised fire-weather inputs to represent regionally typical dangerous fire-weather conditions. Statistical modelling showed that an unrealistically large maximal treatment scenario could reduce fire intensity in three flammable vegetation types, and reduce fire probability in almost every vegetation type. However, leverage analysis of the 12 more-realistic implementable plans indicated that such prescribed burning would have only a minimal effect, if any, on fire extent and that none of these prescribed-burning plans substantially reduced fire intensity. The study highlights that prescribed burning can theoretically mitigate wildfire, but that an unrealistically large area would need to be treated to affect fire behaviour across the island. Rather, optimisation of prescribed burning requires careful landscape design at the local scale. Such designs should be based on improved fire behaviour modelling, empirical measurement of fuels and analysis of actual wildfires.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17061}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF17061}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Grant Williamson and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-3951, title = {{\textquotedblleft}Since I went to the conference{\textellipsis} I have really thought just how bad lighting fires are{\textquotedblright}: diversionary conferencing for youth misuse of fire}, journal = {Crime Prevention and Community Safety}, volume = {19}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {122-135}, chapter = {122}, abstract = {

Youth misuse of fire presents a significant risk to life and property. In Australia, the tertiary prevention of youth misuse of fire involves firefighter participation in diversionary conferencing convened for young people who commit fire-related offences. This approach assumes that young people misuse fire due to a lack of awareness of the consequences, and that education delivered by firefighters in the context of conferencing reduces the risk of future misuse of fire. To explore the validity of this assumption, content analysis of apology letters derived from diversionary conferences convened for young people who committed fire-related offences in New South Wales and Tasmania, Australia, was conducted. Findings suggest that diversionary conferencing with firefighter involvement has the potential to target misuse of fire which manifests from a lack of awareness of the consequences, and that the provision of education has the potential to reduce such misuse of fire by young people.

}, doi = {10.1057/s41300-017-0016-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41300-017-0016-5}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-3955, title = {The smoke is rising but where is the fire? Exploring effective online map design for wildfire warnings}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {88}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, pages = {1473-1501}, chapter = {1473}, abstract = {

The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals{\textquoteright} decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants{\textquoteright} interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants{\textquoteright} approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface.

}, doi = {10.1007/s1106}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11069-017-2929-9}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4041, title = {Social media in emergencies: An examination of government accountability for risk communication and warning}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, pages = {382}, school = {Queensland University of Technology}, type = {PhD}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Emergency management agencies and government authorities increasingly use social media to warn the public of emergencies. The aim of this thesis is to provide clarification where there is uncertainty about liability, and to address concerns as to how the law will be applied. It does this by examining the responsibility of those entities to warn. It considers whether they are likely to be held legally accountable for their acts or omissions when using social media. The thesis also seeks to provide good practice principles for the use of emerging communication technologies.

}, url = {https://eprints.qut.edu.au/108031/}, author = {Melanie Baker-Jones} } @article {bnh-3554, title = {Soil amplification in low-to-moderate seismic regions}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {1945-1963}, chapter = {1945}, abstract = {

The results of a study that investigates potential revisions of the spectral shape factors used in standards in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity are presented here. Using an equivalent linear analysis, the investigation particularly focuses on the effects of seismic intensity associated with rare and very rare intraplate earthquake events on site response. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center ground motion database (PEER) is used in selecting appropriate acceleration-time histories for the intraplate region. The results are normalised for comparison with the current spectral shape factors given in the Australian Standards for Earthquake Actions AS 1170.4:2007, with some differences being observed. The dependency of site amplification on seismic intensity was only observed for soil classes Ce, De and Ee. The rock site of class Be had considerably higher response in the short period range relative to class Ee. The records from the PEER ground motion database were also used for comparison with the results from this study, using a modified normalisation approach. The results from this study correlate well with the records from PEER.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-016-0067-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-016-0067-5}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Elisa Lumantarna and Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @article {bnh-4619, title = {Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain with applications in bushfire modelling}, journal = {Research Gate}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare. This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain. Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire., Emergency management, Fire, propagation, wind modelling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4426, title = {Statistical Characterisation Of Wind Fields Over Complex Terrain With Applications In Bushfire Modelling}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {274}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare.

This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods.

Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain.

Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire management, propagation, spatial variability, toroidal surface, wind, wind-terrain}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rachael_Quill/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling/links/5a4c20cf458515a6bc6bf931/Statistical-characterisation-of-wind-fields-ov}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @article {bnh-3799, title = {Strategies for non-traditional emergency volunteers: a risk-benefit framework for decision-making}, number = {253}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents a Risk-Benefit framework that can assist decision-makers in emergency management organisations (EMOs) to identify potential benefits and risks of alternative strategies for {\textquoteleft}non-traditional{\textquoteright} emergency volunteers. The framework was developed primarily from stakeholder input in two workshops, combined with recent research.

Non-traditional emergency volunteering includes any type of volunteering {\textendash} formal and informal - that is: 1) Focused on contributing to disaster and emergency prevention, preparedness, response, or relief/recovery and 2) Involves volunteers who are not traditional emergency management volunteers affiliated with EMOs.

Different strategies for non-traditional volunteers bring different sets of potential benefits, challenges and risks for communities, volunteers, and EMOs. Not all of the potential consequences of different options will be immediately evident to a particular organisation at a particular point in time. Without decision support EMOs may perceive greater risks with non-traditional emergency volunteers and voluntary organisations and overlook or downgrade potential benefits due to unawareness, unfamiliarity, or risk aversion.

}, issn = {253}, author = {Tarn Kruger and John Handmer and J Whittaker} } @conference {bnh-4075, title = {Suitable pyrolysis model for physics-based bushfire simulation}, booktitle = {11th Asia-Pacific Conference on Combustion}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, publisher = {The Combustion Institute}, organization = {The Combustion Institute}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Models for the thermal degradation (or pyrolysis) of solid fuel are fundamental to the physics-based simulation of grassfires. The pyrolysis process affects the combustion process and therefore the simulated flame, which defines the fire front. There are two competing models: a simple linear parameterisation and a non-linear Arrhenius model. The present work appraises these two models for Lucerne hay (a cured herbaceous fuel) to test their suitability for bushfire simulation. Thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning
calorimetry of Lucerne hay is conducted to measure the parameters required for the simulation. Simulations of pyrolysis are carried out using both the linear and single effective Arrhenius models, and compared with the
experimental results. For this fuel, the linear model provides better agreement with the experimental data than the Arrhenius model. Hence, the linear model would be more suitable for large-scale wildfire simulation.

}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5325, title = {Synthetic damage curves for concrete girder bridge decks under flood hazard}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {242}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In recent years, frequencies of flood events in Australia have increased. It is noted that flood events cause the most damage to infrastructure compared to any other natural hazards in the world. Road bridges are lifeline structures with a pre and post disaster critical functionality. Failure or damage of bridges during an extreme flood event can have severe consequences to the community as well as road authorities and emergency services. Currently a major gap in knowledge is the ability to evaluate the vulnerability of bridge structures using a methodology which captures the variability of the event intensities and the variability of the structural capacity. The research presented here addresses this knowledge gap.

Research commenced with a comprehensive literature review covering review of major bridge design codes in the world, literature on flood loading, vulnerability modelling of bridges and numerical modelling approaches to simulate bridges under natural hazards. Damage indices proposed by researchers to depict the levels of damage to structures are also noted.

A comprehensive analysis of case studies of failure of bridges under flood loading under the 2011 and 2013 floods in Queensland and Victoria was undertaken to establish the major failure mode of bridges under flood loading. This identified that failure of girder and deck of concrete girder bridges, which constitute more than 60\% of the bridge network, is a common case study to investigate. Two bridges were selected for analysis and the outcome was used to establish the vulnerability modelling methodology.

A deterministic analysis of the selected structures was undertaken under variable flood loading to establish the analysis methodology using ABAQUS software. The loading configuration considered covered flood, log impact and debris impact. This analysis demonstrated that Kapernicks Bridge would fail at a flood velocity of 3.71m/s which closely agrees with the recorded flood velocity as well. Understanding the limitations of the deterministic analysis where the variability of flood loading and the variability of structural capacity cannot be accounted for, a probabilistic fragility analysis was undertaken to establish the probability of failure of the bridges.

Probability distribution was established for flood velocity as well as the structural section capacity. Fragility curves were derived for concrete girder bridges using the developed methodology.

The methodology developed is applicable for any bridge structure when the flood loading distribution for the location of the bridge can be established.

Contribution to the existing knowledge from this research has been the methodology developed to quantify vulnerability of road infrastructure exposed to flood hazard that would assist evaluate damage state for bridge structures. Emergency Management could use this damage state to assess evacuation routes while Road Authority could make decisions on strengthening the bridge structure.

A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to explore the effect of span of the bridge and also increase in flood frequency on the probability of failure.

A method to derive damage indices which can be used by bridge engineers for decision making has been demonstrated.

}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162436/Kalendher.pdf}, author = {Farook Kalendher} } @article {bnh-4148, title = {Testing of simulated flood effect on the strength of selected building components}, number = {334}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents the results of tests conducted to ascertain the resilience of selected building components to floodwater exposure. The experimental test programme was part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright}.

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011 and 2013, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. The objective of the project is to address the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains and is targeted at assessing cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability.

Geoscience Australia as the lead researcher for the project selected the Cyclone Testing Station at James Cook University in Townville, Queensland, to conduct the experimental tests. These tests aimed to address knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability implications of selected components of a typical brick veneer slab-on-grade house due to immersion.

The experimental programme was developed in consultation with insurance industry loss assessors from two major companies and was scoped in recognition of the available budget. The objective of the testing was to identify whether the selected components remain serviceable following inundation and subsequent drying or whether replacement was required.

The experimental programme examined the resistance to inundation of three common building components as outlined below. For each component, a number of samples were tested to attempt to provide some understanding of the variation of resistance. For each component some specimens were tested dry without wetting and some were tested after drying following inundation. For Component 3, some specimens were also tested wet immediately after inundation.

The results of the tests showed that flooding did not have any significant effect on the pull-out strength of the bond of the ceramic floor and wall tiles to their substrate, nor on the racking strength of the OSB wall sheet bracing. There was a nominal strength reduction of 10\% for the HDF wall sheet bracing when tested after wetting and drying cycle.

However, there was a significant reduction (~46\%) in load carrying capacity of the timber joists when tested in the wet condition. These results suggest that the samples whilst in the wet stage may be compromised due to reduced strength capacity and stiffness. However, if allowed to dry then the specimen could recover to nominally 96\% of average strength capacity and stiffness. Moreover, it was observed that the moisture content level after the test returned close to pre-inundation level within a week and therefore contributed to recover the strength and stiffness.

The results of the testing will inform recommendations on mitigation measures within the BNHCRC flood project. The results will also inform the selection of building materials for new construction in flood-prone areas.

}, issn = {334}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Mark Edwards and Simon Ingham and David Henderson} } @conference {bnh-3883, title = {Thermodynamic considerations of pyrocumulus formation}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

In favourable atmospheric conditions, large hot fires can produce pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) cloud in the form of deep convective columns resembling conventional thunderstorms, which may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes.\  These in turn may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires.\  Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and are very difficult to forecast.\ 

Here, a conceptual study of the thermodynamics of fire plumes is presented to better understand the influence of a range of factors on plume condensation.\  Recognising that plume gases are undilute at the fire source and approach 100\% dilution at the plume top (neutral buoyancy), we consider how the plume condensation height changes for this full range of dilution and for a given set of factors that include: environmental temperature and humidity, fire temperature, and fire moisture to heat ratios.\  The condensation heights are calculated and plotted as saturation point (SP) curves on thermodynamic diagrams for a broad range of each factor.\  The distribution of SP curves on thermodynamic diagrams provides useful insight into pyroCb behaviour. Adding plume temperature traces from Large-Eddy Model simulations to the thermodynamic diagrams provides additional insight into plume buoyancy, how it varies with height, and the potential for dangerous pyroCb development.

}, author = {KJ Tory and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-3820, title = {Time and space scales in the tropical cyclone boundary layer, and the location of the eyewall updraft}, journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

The transient response of the tropical cyclone boundary layer is studied using linearized and nonlinear models, with particular focus on the frictionally-forced vertical motion. The impulsively started, linearized tropical cyclone boundary layer is shown to adjust to its equilibrium solution via a series of decaying oscillations with the inertial period 2π/I. In the nonlinear case, the oscillation period is slightly lengthened by inwards advection of the slower-evolving flow from larger radii, but the oscillations decay more quickly. In an idealized cyclone with small sinusoidal oscillations superimposed on the gradient wind, the equilibrium nonlinear boundary layer acts as a low-pass filter with pass length scaling as {\textendash}u10/I, where {\textendash}u10\ is the 10-m frictional inflow. This filter is absent from the linearized boundary layer. The eyewall frictional updraft is similarly displaced inwards of the radius of maximum winds by a distance that scales with {\textendash}u10/I, due to nonlinear overshoot of the inflowing air as it crosses the relatively sharp increase in\ I\ near the eyewall. This displacement is smaller (other things being equal) when the RMW is small, and greater when it is large, including in secondary eyewalls. The dependence of this distance on {\textendash}u10/I\ may explain, at least partially, why observed RMWs are seldom less than 20 km, why storms with relatively peaked radial profiles of wind speed can intensify more rapidly, and why some secondary eyewalls initially contract rapidly with little intensification, then contract more slowly while intensifying.

}, doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-17-0077.1}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0077.1}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert} } @conference {bnh-3908, title = {Too good to be true? How a remote island community developed a 100\% effective risk communication strategy and what Australia can learn from it}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

On 13 October 2005 the leaders of the island of Simeulue were presented with a prestigious award by the United Nations. The Sasakawa Award for Disaster Reduction was given in recognition of the island community losing a remarkably low number of people during the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The award paid tribute to the fact that Simeulue accomplished a {\textquotedblleft}unique achievement in the midst of all the death in Aceh due to the tsunami{\textquotedblright} and acknowledged that an oral story saved the community. In fact, of a population of 80,000, only 7 people died during the incident {\textendash} and locals insist that 6 of those died during the earthquake and only one {\textendash} a man named Laksahmin {\textendash} died from the tsunami.

Research published soon after the tsunami indicated that the essence of this unique achievement was a traditional story which included information on the signs of an impending tsunami and the action to be taken to minimise loss of life.

In the indigenous story tsunami is called {\textquotedblleft}smong{\textquotedblright} and the knowledge of smong is based on the community{\textquoteright}s experience of a previous smong event. This earlier tsunami occurred on 4 January 1907 and affected 950 km of the Sumatran coast.

The core of the old story (from both the literature and from the interviews that comprise this research) is that the big tsunami struck Simeulue in 1907 killing a great proportion of the population. The survivors were those who ran to the nearby hills. Ever since then the story has been repeated in many private and public social contexts. Old people and grandmothers in particular reiterate the story. The principal story elements are:

1) Jika gempa kuat\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  1) If there is a strong earthquake

2) Jika laut surut \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  2) If the sea recedes

3) Lari ke gunung \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  \  3) Run to the mountains

\  \  \  \  \ 3b) Ngakk menunggu - lari saja!\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  3b) Don{\textquoteright}t wait - just RUN!

This paper sets out the preliminary results of a PhD research project which is exploring the Simeulue DRR phenomenon. This project aims to generate an understanding of how the simple narrative described above came about and in particular, why it was so effective in minimising loss of life in 2004. It is hoped that these findings can be adapted to improve risk communication and DRR in other locations in Indonesia and indeed the rest of the world.

}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-3593, title = {Tools for monitoring teams in emergency management: EMBAM and TBM}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {2017}, abstract = {

Effective teamwork is an important component of emergency management. However, from time-to-time teamwork may break down, particularly in a complex system like emergency management. It is important that people who have operational oversight of teams are able to detect if a team has a problem and can help the team modify its functioning. A literature review identified methods of monitoring teams from the position of operational oversight. Based on this review two methods of team monitoring were chosen for further evaluation. A preliminary evaluation study of each tool during a simulated emergency exercise suggests they both have potential. This is the first stage of an ongoing research program where team monitoring tools will be further developed using iterative design cycles of development and evaluation. In this way methods of monitoring teams from the position of operational oversight that are effective in an emergency management context can be developed. - See more at: https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-01-10$\#$sthash.IHFPYwWm.dpuf

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-01-10}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Grunwald, J and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-5071, title = {Towards an Indigenous ecosystem services valuation framework: a north Australian example}, journal = {Conservation and Society}, volume = {15}, year = {2017}, pages = {255-269}, chapter = {255}, abstract = {

Despite calls by various international agencies, considerable work is still required to understand and incorporate the importance of earth{\textquoteright}s ecosystems for informing public policies. Savannas comprise nearly one third of global terrestrial ecosystems and support many local and Indigenous communities, but the value of their ecosystem services (ES) is insufficiently understood. This study proposes an integrated ES valuation framework and applies it to assess ES for an Indigenous savanna estate in northern Australia, describing how capabilities along with biophysical and socio-cultural ES benefits play a vital role for peoples{\textquoteright} wellbeing. We estimated the monetary value of ES by applying a conventional Basic Value Transfer (BVT) method for biophysical benefits (USD 84 M y-1), and a wellbeing approach for valuing socio-cultural benefits and capabilities (USD 4 M y-1). The latter offers a relatively nominal estimate but underscores the importance of including peoples{\textquoteright} capabilities in order to demonstrate wellbeing benefits for Indigenous people who regularly visit and utilize their lands. We explore two scenarios, Business as Usual (pastoral land use) and ES-based economies (implying customary land use, particularly through fire management) to project plausible broader benefits for the community over a longer term. This research describes how inclusion of Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} capabilities and socio-cultural values are critical for ES assessments, and indicates that an integrated approach is essential for appropriately informing local, regional and global development policies.

}, doi = {10.4103/cs.cs_16_156}, url = {http://www.conservationandsociety.org/article.asp?issn=0972-4923;year=2017;volume=15;issue=3;spage=255;epage=269;aulast=Sangha}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-3954, title = {Towards personalised public warnings: harnessing technological advancements to promote better individual decision-making in the face of disasters}, journal = {International Journal of Digital Earth}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, abstract = {

Official warnings are essential for informing the public of impending hazards and promoting their responses before a disaster occurs. However, research has identified that traditional public warnings, such as generic text messages based on large geographic regions, often fail to promote appropriate responses by at-risk residents. Recently, there has been an increased focus on using map-based approaches for communicating public warnings. However, a systematic framework to guide the design of effective mapping instruments for this purpose is lacking. The researchers sought to fill this gap by merging the scholarly understanding of factors influencing warning effectiveness with the contemporary spatial capacities of the emergency management sector. The current paper presents the conceptual framework resulting from this merger, which can be used to direct the design and implementation of map-based warnings that offer\ personalisedrisk visualisation and provide\ personalised\ decision support to motivate appropriate responses. An example is then provided to illustrate how this framework can be applied for the development of personalised bushfire warnings in an Australian context. Underpinned by webGIS technologies, the proposed framework shows a potentially ground-breaking approach to improve public warning communication by fostering more efficient and effective risk personalisation and response related decision-making by individuals.

}, doi = {10.1080/17538947.2017.1302007}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/citedby/10.1080/17538947.2017.1302007?scroll=top\&needAccess=true}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @article {bnh-3570, title = {Translating resilience theories into disaster management policies}, number = {251}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the context of flooding, research aimed to identify how disaster resilience was interpreted in four countries (China, USA, Netherlands, Australia) and by international organisations. To do this, it assessed the types of activities supported by disaster resilience policies. A particular concern was the use of resistance versus accommodation strategies, the former characterised by structural engineering approaches such as levees to exclude floodwaters, while the latter uses a number of approaches to enable people to live with flooding, such as ecosystem-based approaches and preparedness. Debates about the merits of these two approaches are reminiscent of the ancient Greek fable, {\textquoteleft}The oak and the reed{\textquoteright} by Aesop (hence the paper{\textquoteright}s title).

}, issn = {251}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-4227, title = {Tropical Cyclone Debbie: damage to buildings in the Whitsunday Region}, number = {63}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, institution = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (TC Debbie) was classified by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) as a Category 4 cyclone and crossed the Queensland coast north east of Airlie Beach around midday on Tuesday 28 March 2017.

Before the event, the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) deployed six mobile anemometers (SWIRLnet) in the area between Ayr and Proserpine. After the event, CTS teams investigated the performance of houses; larger residential structures such as apartments, strata properties and resort accommodation; commercial and public buildings; and sheds. The study area included the communities of Bowen, Proserpine, Airlie Beach, Hamilton Island, Dingo Beach, Wilson{\textquoteright}s Beach and Conway Beach. A wind field was developed using CTS and BoM anemometer data and showed that buildings within the study area experienced wind speeds lower than their relevant design wind speed.

CTS teams assessed the causes of damage to buildings from wind, wind-driven rainwater and storm surge. Inadequate tie-down details between battens and rafters or trusses, and between the roof structure and walls caused many of the structural failures in buildings constructed before the 1980s. Tie-down connections between roof structure and walls that had been inappropriately detailed also failed on some recently constructed buildings. Connections between verandah beams and posts on some buildings with larger verandahs also failed. \ 

This study confirmed the findings of previous damage investigations concerning the vulnerability of: windows with inadequate fixings, window and door furniture; poorly fixed flashings, gutters and soffit linings; large access doors that had not been strengthened so that they complied with AS/NZS4505; lightweight sheds; and fences.

Many occupants of newer buildings reported significant damage from wind-driven rain entering through windows and doors or under flashings even though there was no structural damage to the building. Many people reported that they mopped up water in front of windward wall windows during periods of maximum winds, which exposed them to risk of injury. Further research is required to improve performance of building elements that leak during high winds.

The storm tide generated during TC Debbie was lower than predicted because the cyclone crossed the coast after high tide. Lower-lying buildings in Wilson Beach were inundated to a height of up to 1.1 m causing damage to wall linings, built-in cupboards, floor coverings and contents. In some cases, wave action broke cladding elements and windows. Wave action and scour undercut footings in some buildings on Hamilton Island and Wilson Beach.\ 

The report provides recommendations to improve the performance of building structure and cladding systems including: adequate detailing for roof to wall connections; improved fixing of flashings, retrofitting options for older buildings; improvements in windows and door furniture under repeated wind loads; and revision of storm surge guidelines.

}, isbn = {978-0-9954470-4-2}, issn = {63}, url = {https://www.jcu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/461178/TC-Debbie-report.pdf}, author = {Boughton, Geoffrey N. and Falck, D. J. and David Henderson and D. J. Smith and Korah Parackal and Thomas Kloetzke and M. S. Mason and Humphreys, M and Navaratnam, S and Bodhinayake, G and Simon Ingham and John Ginger} } @conference {bnh-3915, title = {The uncomfortable conversation: understanding value through risk ownership}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Being able to effectively determine risk ownership is critical for effectively managing natural hazards. This, however, is not a simple task: the risks are systemic, the impacts can resonate across multiple time lines and geographical scales and, in many cases, ownership is shared. As risk ownership is frequently not formally allocated to particular activities, allocation is often a negotiated process. This requires being able to combine expert and local knowledge with economic understandings to support decision making in this area. This type of planning extends beyond surviving an event and rebuilding, to focusing on sustaining the values we treasure most, by planning for the future we want, in the face of changes that go beyond our previous experience. This presentation will explore these different aspects and show how they have been brought together in a risk ownership framework. This framework has been co-designed with end users and provides a companion process that integrates strategic risk into current risk assessment and planning processes. This process uses the identification of values (what is most important), and who owns these, as a premise for assessing risk. Risk ownership provides not only a focus for specific activities, but also acts as a connecting thread that runs through the strategic risk assessment process {\textendash} binding ownership of values and ownership of assets in a way that supports actions rather than disabling them. Our presentation will explore how the different phases of this process can be used to help communities identify what is most important and to explore risk reduction strategies to protect these. It will also show how valuation methods can provide a pathway for building a more comprehensive understanding of how to make long-term investments aiming to avoid damage and loss. It will show how drawing together the threads of this difficult conversation to a point of consensus, actively supports resilience activities and strategic thinking.

}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @conference {bnh-3907, title = {A unified approach to fire spread modelling}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

One of the main goals of bushfire research is to provide a relatively simple and timely answer to the question {\textquotedblleft}What is the fires{\textquoteright} forward rate of spread?{\textquotedblright} Indeed, pursuit of such an answer has engaged some of the brightest minds in wildland fire science, and has produced a variety of fire spread models that apply across a number of common vegetation or fuel types. In Australia, these models date back to the 1950s-60s, with the work of Alan McArthur, and extend through to the current day with the most recent developments in shrubland fire spread models and refinements to the curing function in the CSIRO grassland fire spread model. In the present work we consider the way that meteorological factors are incorporated into the suite of existing fire spread models, which encompass a variety of different fuel types, and discuss an approach that unifies their inclusion. The utility of this unified modelling approach is demonstrated via model comparison using real meteorological data over a range of vegetation types. In particular, we demonstrate that the meteorological (i.e. non-fuel) sub-models of the current suite of operational models, which are of many and varied functional form, can be replaced by a single, unified, two-parameter model, with no appreciable loss in model performance. The unified model has the distinct advantage of being conceptually straightforward and extremely parsimonious compared to current operational approaches. The existence of a simple, yet effective, unified approach to fire spread modelling has implications for initiatives such as the National Fire Danger Rating project, as it establishes a common modelling basis that can be applied to the many different fuel types that are encountered across the nation.

}, author = {Jason J. Sharples} } @conference {bnh-3911, title = {Unpacking the sectoral income effects of natural disasters: evidence from the 2010-11 Queensland floods}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The past few decades witnessed a rapid increase of researches that rigorously investigated the nexus between economic performances and natural disasters. However, the rise of the interest in studying this nexus is not surprising provided that natural disasters trigger severe destruction in capital stocks and incur disruption in income flows. As such, the focus of many the studies is on demonstrating disaster shock impacts on outcomes such as agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth, among others (Dell M. et al, 2014). This paper estimates the impact of the 2010-11 Queensland Floods on sectoral income level using the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which brings together a nationally representative 5\% sample from the 2006 Census with records from the 2011 Census of Australia. In our empirical setting, we treat the 2010-11 Queensland floods as a natural experiment by treating the flood-affected group of individuals as the treatment group, while treating the rest of the Queenslanders remains as the control group. This approach enables us to compare the economic differences in before (2006 Census) and after (2011 Census) the event between the group of flood-affected individuals and their counterfactuals. Our estimates indicate that the 2010-11 Queensland floods incident has no bearing on overall gross state product (GSP), but it adversely affects individuals working in construction, and accommodation and food services. However, Queenslanders working in retail trade, transport, postal and warehousing, and rental, hiring and real estate services cashed in opportunities brought by this catastrophic event. In addition, we find that the 2010-11 Queensland floods hit the lower income-group the hardest in terms of their loss in annual income. Our findings have several policy implications in that government{\textquoteright}s budgetary allocations related to disaster risk reduction programs should vary across sectors and group of individuals in accordance with their potential disaster effects.

}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Muhamman Rahman} } @article {bnh-4697, title = {The Unquantified Risk of Post-Fire Metal Concentration in Soil: a Review}, journal = {Water, Air, \& Soil Pollution}, volume = {228}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

Forest fire is a natural disturbance that occurs in many terrestrial ecosystems specifically in the semi-arid environments and is considered to be an important cause of environmental change. Though many causes of fire are identified, including lightning, volcanic eruption, power line sparks, etc., human involvement is the most significant factor. Fire events are able to alter the physical, chemical and biogeochemical properties of the soil and surface materials and are able to release major and trace metals into the environment. This may be more significant in mining-affected and industrial landscapes, where elevated concentrations of metals present in the soil. After the fire event, metals become more mobile due to the increase in soil surface exposure and the mobility associated with ash dispersal. This mobility may increase the bioavailability of the metals, which may generate water quality issues and may contribute to human and environmental health concerns. Even though, the influences of fire on many soil properties are well established, the behaviour of metals with respect to fire is not well investigated. However, a few studies report that major and trace metals include Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and As are mobilized after fire with increased concentrations in soil and water resources and this might pose a risk to human health and ecosystems. Climate change may increase the intensity, frequency and areal extend of fire events and hence increase the metal concentrations and their potential health impacts. This paper reviews post-fire (wild fire) mobility of metals in soil common in contaminated forest ecosystems. The human and ecological health risks of these metals are also considered.

}, keywords = {Climate change, environment, fire., forest, soil}, doi = {10.1007}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11270-017-3338-0$\#$citeas}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-3920, title = {Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, abstract = {

McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) incorporates the Keetch{\textendash}Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimate of soil dryness. Improved approaches for estimating soil moisture now exist, with potential for informing the calculation of FFDI. We evaluated the effect, compared with KBDI, of two alternative methods of estimating soil moisture: the rainfall-based Antecedent Precipitation Index and soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity satellite mission. These methods were used to calculate FFDI over a sample period of 5\ years (2010{\textendash}14) at seven locations around Australia. The effect of substituting the alternatives for KBDI, and of entirely replacing the Drought Factor (DF) (a measure of fuel availability in FFDI) with the alternatives was explored by studying the effect on magnitude, distribution and timing of FFDI and associated Fire Danger Rating (FDR). Both approaches predicted drier soil conditions than KBDI, resulting in fewer Low{\textendash}Moderate FDR days and more days of High FDR and above. The alternative methods replacing KBDI had little effect on seasonal patterns of FDR. Of all approaches, replacing DF entirely with the soil moisture alternatives most closely mimicked McArthur{\textquoteright}s FFDI. Overall, if alternative measures of soil moisture are adopted for FFDI, the entire replacement of the DF term should be considered.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF16217}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16217}, author = {C.M Holgate and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Marta Yebra} } @article {bnh-4240, title = {Using realistic disaster scenario analysis to understand natural hazard impacts and emergency management requirements: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {347}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The study of historical occurrences of natural disasters only provides a very limited view of the full range of risk Australia is exposed to. Catastrophe models have been designed as a tool to extrapolate beyond past experience and as such can help risk practitioners prepare for the types of events yet to be seen.

In this project we apply the same techniques at the core of catastrophe models to design realistic disaster scenarios. The focus is not only on the hazard magnitude to be expected from rare extreme events but also on the likely impact in terms of building damage, infrastructure disruption and injuries / loss of human lives. To provide a global picture of natural disaster risk in Australia a range of perils and locations have been selected through the 3 years of the project. The scenarios cover Tropical Cyclones, Earthquake, Heatwaves and flooding induced by East Coast Lows while the regions around Adelaide, Melbourne, Northern New South Wales and Southeast Queensland are at the center of our analysis.

To facilitate communication of our key results a web content has been drafted to provide a description of each catastrophic event studied. The web content is hosted by the Australian Institue for Disaster Resilience (AIDR) knowledge Hub and targets a broader audience than the technical reports delivered as part of the project{\textquoteright}s milestones.

It is our hope that emergency services can leverage the type of information generated from such scenarios to assess their capabilities to cope with the response and recovery task. The web content also offers a source of information for a wider audience and plays a role in educating the general public on the potential threat posed by Australian natural disasters.

}, issn = {347}, author = {Thomas Loridan and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-5182, title = {Utilization of remote sensing techniques for the quantification of fire behavior in two pine stands}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {91}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {845-854}, chapter = {845}, abstract = {

Quantification\ of field-scale fire behavior is necessary to improve the current scientific understanding of wildland fires and to develop and test relevant, physics-based models. In particular, detailed descriptions of individual fires are required, for which the available literature is limited. In this work, two such field-scale experiments, carried out in pine stands under\ mild conditions, are presented. A particular focus was placed on non-intrusive\ measurement, as the capabilities of advanced remote sensing techniques, along with more traditional approaches, are explored. A description of the fires is presented, with spread occurring predominantly in the surface fuels with intensities in the range of 200{\textendash}4400kWm-1, and punctuated by isolated regions of crown fire. The occurrence of crown fire is investigated and linked to regions of greater canopy density, and it is found that the total fire intensity may increase locally to as much as 21,000kWm-1. The light winds do not appear to play a\ direct role\ in the changes in fire behavior, while fuel structure may be important. The measurements described herein provided a reasonable overall description of the fires, however, the current resolution (both spatial and temporal) falls short of definitively explaining some transitional aspects of the fire behavior, and future improvements are suggested.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2017.03.076}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711217301728}, author = {Eric Mueller and Nicholas Skowronski and Kenneth Clark and Michael Gallagher and Robert Kremens and Jan Thomas and Mohamad El Houssami and Alex Filkov and Rory M Hadden and William Mell and Albert Simeoni} } @article {bnh-4570, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {
As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {lessons management., mitigation, Natural hazards, prevention, risk ownership, risks}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-valuing-recovery-through-risk-ownership/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-3917, title = {Verification of a Lagrangian particle model for short-range firebrand transport}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {91}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, pages = {776-783}, chapter = {776}, abstract = {

Firebrands are a harbinger of damage to infrastructure; their effects cause a particularly important threat to people living within the wildland-urban-interface. Short-range firebrands travel with the wind with little or no lofting, and cause spotfires. In this work, the design of a novel firebrand generator prototype is discussed to achieve a uniform shower of firebrands. The transport of short-range firebrand is studied to verify the existing Lagrangian particle model of Fire Dynamics Simulator. Uniform, non-combusting cubiform and cylindrical firebrands are projected using the firebrand generator. The experimentally observed distribution of particles on the ground is compared with a simulated distribution using the fire dynamic simulator. The results show that the existing Lagrangian model gives a good agreement with the experimental data.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2017.03.019}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711217301121}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin and Graham Thorpe} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5280, title = {We have not lived long enough: sensemaking and learning from bushfires in Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, school = {The University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Why did the bushfires of 7 February 2009 in Victoria take so many lives? Why were those bushfires so extreme, so feral, so catastrophic, so devastating? What can be done to ensure that so many lives are not lost, that so much devastation is not caused, in such bushfires in the future? (Parliament of Victoria, Opening Remarks, Chair of the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, 2009: 1) Victoria, Australia, is arguably the most fire-prone area in the world. Increasingly, with climate change, atmospheric scientists claim that we are experiencing longer drought periods, higher wind speeds and warmer temperatures which are giving rise to a greater bushfire threat in an already extremely bushfire-prone environment. Given such circumstances, it is likely that Victoria{\textquoteright}s emergency management organisations will increasingly find themselves responding to bushfires characterised as complex, harmful and rare. Therefore, my study seeks to understand how emergency management organisations make sense of and learn from bushfires in Victoria so that they can be better prepared for bushfires in the future. To do so, I focus on the Royal Commission, which followed the {\textquotedblleft}Black Saturday{\textquotedblright} bushfires, commonly referred to as Australia{\textquoteright}s worst ever natural disaster. My study comprises a qualitative and interpretive methodology to explore how emergency management organisations implement recommendations emanating from public inquiries, and the role that sensemaking plays in this. In addition, given the devastating impact that disasters such as bushfires can have, I also explore how emotions influence the sensemaking process associated with implementing recommendations in such organisations. Through this dual-focused approach I build new theory in relation to the ways in which individuals in organisations make sense of and learn from public inquiry recommendations after disasters, while highlighting the role of both negative and positive emotions in this process.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/158069}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @conference {bnh-4333, title = {What are the safety implications of dynamic fire behaviours?}, booktitle = {22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Many firefighters in the world have been injured or killed due to a forest fire entrapment, caught by the fire heat or smoke. Some case studies have pointed out that dynamic fire behaviour may have played a role. We investigate here how changes in wind direction, channelling (i.e. vorticity-driven lateral spread on a leeward slope) and long distance spotting could contribute to entrapments through a process model, simplified in Figure 1. There are three situations likely to entrap firefighters:

We review fire agencies archives in Australasia and Europe from 1979 to 2017 and retrieve 106 entrapments, investigating weather, terrain and location of fire front during entrapment. We also compare the Australasian subset with fires without entrapment using a binomial regression function.

In Australia, changes in wind direction induced by cold front passes is the main factor contributing to entrapment. These sudden changes in wind direction switch long smooth burning flanks of fire in violent fronts and lead to S1 situations. S2, sudden lateral spread, occurs in rough terrain. There, leeward slopes may generate channelling, causing entrapment several hundred meters far away from the fire flank. S3 appears when fire danger index reaches highest values. When fuel drought combines with adverse weather conditions, mass spotting propagates fire at long distance. Then, firefighters may be entrapped whatever the terrain.

This work improves our understanding of the process from dynamic fire behaviour to firefighter entrapment. Identifying three different situations, the model should help fire agencies to adapt their safety warnings regarding the local daily conditions.

}, author = {Lahave, S and Jason J. Sharples and Stuart Matthews and Heemstra, S and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-3382, title = {What{\textquoteright}s critical about critical infrastructure?}, journal = {Urban Policy and Research}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {1-13}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Critical infrastructure (CI) has received much attention in research, policy and political discussions in recent years, following concern over exposure of infrastructure to terrorist attack, disruption through disasters, rising awareness of the interdependent nature of infrastructure in modern urban systems, and changes in the ownership of and responsibility for infrastructure assets. In this paper, we explore the implications of different framings of both {\textquotedblleft}critical{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}infrastructure{\textquotedblright}, through two questions: critical how and for whom; critical when and at what scale? Framings of CI, and their increasingly important manifestations in policy and law, have deep but too-often unexposed implications: the lines drawn between what is defined as critical and that which is not concerns not only the physical or informational assets, but the inclusion/exclusion of communities and their places and values as important aspects of modern urban governance. We argue that a better understanding of what is critical about urban infrastructure is not just recognition of their vulnerability and interconnectedness, but also of the key linkages between critical infrastructure and human and environmental system integrity and equity within the context of capitalist urbanisation.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08111146.2017.1282857}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2017.1282857}, author = {Wendy E. Steele and Karen Hussey and Dovers, Steve} } @conference {bnh-3887, title = {When policy, politics and emergency management collide: managing coordination in crises}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Crises place a clear focus on how governments at different levels respond and highlight the important intersection between policy, politics and emergency responses in highly charged circumstances. Large scale natural disasters represent a significant test of the public sector{\textquoteright}s ability to respond in an efficient and coordinated way in the face of uncertainty and adversity. The intersection between policy, politics and operational response can be seen as a perfect storm where competing priorities and objectives may arise and require resolution. The pressures of managing crisis situations come against a backdrop in Australia where trust in government and public services from its citizens continues to decline. The public retain high expectations of government{\textquoteright}s ability to plan, prepare and respond to disasters in a timely manner. The level of scrutiny and accountability to which politicians, bureaucrats and responders are held to means that collective and collaborative action is a necessity. Crises are also occurring not in a vacuum but where changes in the public sector mean that whole of government, or connected forms of working are a highly pervasive mantra. It is within this context that political, bureaucratic and operational agencies work in the response to crises.

This presentation provides the finalised outcomes from a doctoral project which examined the abovementioned issues within the framework of Australia{\textquoteright}s two most significant events of the past decade: the 2009 Victorian bushfires and the 2011 Queensland floods (this work is currently being published as: Disaster Management in Australia: Government Coordination in a Time of Crisis. Routledge).

The research was premised on understanding how the states confronted each disaster and how they can be seen to epitomise the challenges of crisis management in Australia. The research was underpinned through a model which examined: whole of government arrangements, the nature of crisis management, executive leadership, inter-organisational coordination, organisational culture, social capital and institutions of state. It examined these thematic areas from the: policy, politics and emergency response perspectives. In doing so, it has established that these three streams of activity and the actors who work in each domain represent a symbiotic network. Within this network, the interfaces between these streams represents a critical part of preparation, response and recovery from major crisis events, as important as any of the individual components.

}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @conference {bnh-3890, title = {Where do we put our dollars? Economic analysis of different bushfire management options in Western Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Funds for bushfire-risk management are limited but the bushfire threat to society continues to increase. Fire managers face a challenging resource allocation problem and they would greatly benefit from knowing which strategies generate the highest benefit per dollar invested. There are many options available for bushfire-risk management, but it is hard to know what benefits they generate and if those benefits exceed the costs of implementation. The aim of this project is to evaluate different bushfire-risk management strategies in contrasting environments to explore which option(s) provide(s) the best value for money and highlight the trade-offs between the different options. This information can be used by fire managers and policy makers to optimise the allocation of the available resources for bushfire management in Western Australia and other States.

Specifically, the analysis evaluates a set of management options that were selected by experts in the field and compares them with the status quo in order to determine which pathways are more likely to generate additional benefits to society. We quantify the costs and benefits of applying the selected management options in two different case study locations in WA and discuss the implications for other localities in the State. We found that in areas with a very large number of high value human assets (i.e. Perth Hills), strategies that remove the assets at risk from the areas concerned have a potential to generate significant benefits, while fuel reduction treatments are most beneficial when large areas are treated in a coordinated manner. Priority strategies for fire management vary by region and it is therefore important not to apply fire management strategies uniformly across the State.

}, author = {Veronique Florec and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-4352, title = {You own the fuel, but who owns the fire?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {26}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {999-1008}, chapter = {999}, abstract = {

In this paper, we argue that the statement {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} implies a duty on landowners to manage fuel on their land to reduce the likelihood of bushfires, however started, from spreading to neighbouring properties. However, the notion {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} has not been analysed from a legal perspective. This paper reviews Australian law to identify who is legally responsible for fire that starts on privately owned land. We argue that the correct interpretation of existing Australian law is: {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the ignition owns the fire{\textquoteright} {\textendash} that is, liability to pay for losses caused by bushfire has always fallen on those that intentionally start a fire, not on the owner of the fuel that sustains the fire. That legal conclusion could have dramatic implications for fire management policies. It will be shown that liability for starting a prescribed burn is clear-cut whereas liability for allowing accumulated fuel loads to contribute to the spread of fire is almost unheard of. As a result, we argue that the law is pushing landowners in a direction away from the policy direction adopted by all Australian governments. After identifying the current legal position, we recommend changes to align the law with the national policy direction.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17070}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17070}, author = {Michael Eburn and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @conference {bnh-3878, title = {Youth justice conferencing for youth misuse of fire: a case study of collaboration}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Youth misuse of fire (YMF) refers to any illegitimate use of fire or incendiary materials by a person under the age of 18 years (Pooley \& Ferguson, 2017). Existing literature exposes YMF as a multifaceted and complex behaviour (Martin, Bergen, Richardson, Roeger, \& Allison, 2004) that presents a significant risk to life and property (Pooley, 2015). To address this concern, programs have been specifically designed to target and reduce misuse of fire by young people. One such program is Youth Justice Conferencing for YMF. This program involves firefighter participation in Youth Justice Conferencing convened for young people who commit fire-related offences. The role of firefighters is to provide education on the consequences of misusing fire and to suggest fire safety related tasks for a young person to complete as a means of making reparation for harm caused by their behaviour (NSW Government, 2016). These mechanisms aim to stimulate cognitive and behavioural change in young people, reducing the risk of recidivism.

Despite formally operating in New South Wales (NSW) since 2006, this program had not undergone independent empirical inquiry. To partially fill this void, a research-oriented evaluation was conducted. This evaluation revealed that the efficacy of the program relies heavily on successful collaboration between urban fire and juvenile justice services, government and non-government entities, and young people and adults. However, the evaluation also highlighted areas in need of improvement. For best practice to be attained, collaboration is also required with the rural fire service, between practitioners and researchers, and between proponents of restorative justice, fire prevention, and child-centred disaster risk reduction. Such findings have implications for enhancing the efficacy of the program, and reflect a useful case study of collaboration.

}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-3952, title = {Youth Justice Conferencing for youth misuse of fire: a child-centred disaster risk reduction mechanism}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, abstract = {
Youth misuse of fire is a multifaceted, complex, and dangerous phenomenon. In response to this problem, Fire and Rescue NSW and Juvenile Justice NSW established a memorandum of understanding to facilitate firefighter involvement in the provision of fire safety education during Youth Justice Conferencing for young people who commit fire-related offences. Despite being used for over a decade, conferencing for youth misuse of fire is yet to attract theoretical analysis or empirical investigation. To partially fill this void, a theoretical analysis of Youth Justice Conferencing for youth misuse of fire was conducted. Comparative analysis revealed that child-centred disaster risk reduction offers a scaffold to explain and justify the mechanisms operating in Youth Justice Conferencing for youth misuse of fire. This theoretical alignment has implications for both Youth Justice Conferencing and child-centred disaster risk reduction.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-02-21}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-5189, title = {Accredited qualifications for capacity development in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation}, journal = {Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies}, volume = {20}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, pages = {15-34}, chapter = {15}, abstract = {

Increasingly practitioners and policy makers working across the globe are recognising the importance of bringing together disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. From studies across 15 Pacific island nations, a key barrier to improving national resilience to disaster risks and climate change impacts has been identified as a lack of capacity and expertise resulting from the absence of sustainable accredited and quality assured formal training programmes in the disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation sectors. In the 2016 UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015{\textendash}2030, it was raised that most of the training material available are not reviewed either through a peer-to-peer mechanism or by the scientific community and are, thus, not following quality assurance standards. In response to these identified barriers, this paper focuses on a call for accredited formal qualifications for capacity development identified in the 2015 United Nations landmark agreements in DRR and CCA and uses the Pacific Islands Region of where this is now being implemented with the launch of the Pacific Regional Federation of Resilience Professionals, for DRR and CCA. A key issue is providing an accreditation and quality assurance mechanism that is shared across boundaries. This paper argues that by using the United Nations landmark agreements of 2015, support for a regionally accredited capacity development that ensures all countries can produce, access and effectively use scientific information for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The newly launched Pacific Regional Federation of Resilience Professionals who work in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation may offer a model that can be used more widely.

}, url = {https://www.massey.ac.nz/~trauma/issues/2016-2/AJDTS_20_2_Contents.pdf}, author = {Sarah Hemstock and Leigh-Ann Buliruarua and Emily Chan and Gloria Chan and Helene Jacot Des Combes and Peter Davey and Paul Farrell and Sian Griffiths and Henning Hansen and Tim Hatch and Ailsa Holloway and Teuleala Manuella-Morris and Tess Martin and Fabrice Renaud and Kevin Ronan and Benjamin Ryan and Joerg Szarzynski and Duncan Shaw and Soichiro Yasukawa and Tiffany Yeung and Virginia Murray} } @article {bnh-3407, title = {Addressing challenges for future strategic-level emergency management: reframing, networking and capacity building}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {41}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, pages = {306-323}, chapter = {306}, abstract = {

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social-technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non-routine, high-consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia{\textquoteright}s senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic-level emergency management. It argues that emphasising {\textquoteleft}emergency management{\textquoteright} as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio-political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country{\textquoteright}s strategic-level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic-level emergency managers.

}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12196}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12196/abstract}, author = {Karyn Bosomworth and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-3034, title = {An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {176}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Measuring and understanding the impacts of natural hazards in terms of the toll on human life and building damage is a fundamental first step to enabling efficient and strategic risk reduction. By taking a scientific approach to the collection and analysis of accurate information and intelligence, governments, agencies and the wider community are better positioned to reduce disaster risks.

Specifically, the project will provide a longitudinal analysis of the social and environmental circumstances that led to fatalities in order to examine trends over time in terms of exposure and vulnerability. These trends will also be interpreted in the context of emerging issues (e.g. ageing population and population shifts, building codes etc), and how these issues might influence vulnerability and exposure trends in the future. The project will also provide an analysis of building damage by hazard and state/territory due to natural hazards.

The outcomes of this project will inform a wide-range of emergency management and government end users to advise on and update policy, practice and resource allocation.

}, issn = {176}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Robin van den Honert} } @article {bnh-2735, title = {An analysis of human fatalities from floods in Australia 1900-2015}, number = {166}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, abstract = {

This report examines the socio-demographic and environmental circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia between 1900 and 2015. It is the first major milestone from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre funded project {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright}.

The foundation for this work is the use of the Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database PerilAUS, which contains historical data on the incidence (magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of natural hazard events in Australia. PerilAUS contains many of the names of the deceased, which, during the course of this project has enabled the collection of more detailed information on the circumstances of many of the fatalities from coronial inquest reports. Since project commencement, the Flood Database has increased in total number of flood events by 75\%. The number of fatal flood events has increased by 100\% over the length of the project. Importantly, the percentage of named fatalities has increased from 50\% to 90\%, in addition to an increase in the overall numbers of fatalities.

The data has been analysed in relation to informing the understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths and how this information could best be utilised for emergency management policy and practice. This has included an examination of the data around the following themes: demographics, cause of death, location of the fatality and transport, activity and reason behind action prior to death, capacity and awareness, and flood type and severity.\ 

}, issn = {166}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Robin van den Honert and Deirdre Radford and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith} } @conference {bnh-6028, title = {Analytical development of seismic retrofit technique for RC beam-column joint using single diagonal haunch}, booktitle = {24th Australian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Perth, Australia}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for preventing brittle failure of the joint. Previous research has been focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. Hence, the feasibility of using single haunch system for retrofitting RC beam-column joint is explored in this study. This paper presents the analytical development of the technique and illustrates its effectiveness by showing the changes in the shear demand at the joint.

}, keywords = {building, construction, earthquake, engineering, retrofitting, risk management}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-4669, title = {Analytical Simulation of Limited Ductile RC Beam-Columns}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

A systematic analytical modelling technique for the simulation of limited-ductile beamcolumn elements based on the concentrated plasticity model is proposed in this paper. The modelling technique employs a backbone curve for the monotonic behaviour of the limited ductile beam-column elements based on empirical equations. The hysteretic behaviour of the beam-columns in the cyclic loading is modelled and calibrated to results from experiments on columns obtained from the literature using OpenSEES software. The modelling technique provides an important tool for the seismic performance assessment of existing buildings which have been designed with considerations of low to no ductile detailing.

}, keywords = {Bond-Slip, Concentrated Plasticity Modelling Technique, Failure Mechanisms, Lightly Reinforced Columns, OpenSEES.}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/331-Alireza-Mehdipanah-et-al.pdf}, author = {Alireza Mehdipanah and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-3435, title = {An animal just like me: the importance of preserving the identities of companion-animal owners in disaster contexts}, journal = {Social and Personality Psychology Compass}, volume = {10}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, pages = {26-40}, chapter = {26}, abstract = {

The widespread tendency of modern-day pet owners to self-identify with their companion animals psychologically, symbolically and relationally demonstrates how the constructed identities of animal and owner are strongly linked. This becomes particularly apparent during natural disasters. In this review, the new concept of the\ pet-owning self\ is discussed in relation to three self-psychology perspectives: self-extension, symbolic interactionism and selfobject relations. We purposefully depart from the realm of attachment theory to argue that these three epistemological approaches to self-identity, although related, warrant closer examination. Although we discuss them in relation to disaster contexts, the concept of the pet-owning self remains widely applicable. We argue for the importance of acknowledging the powerful intersubjectivity inherent to pet keeping, the inseparability of perceived pet identity from owners{\textquoteright} experiences of the self and that preserving the cohesion of the two is an essential consideration for owners{\textquoteright} psychological wellbeing when managing the integrated pet/owner in the face of risks posed by disaster and other hazards. Future research opportunities and implications are then discussed in the context of social identity theory.

}, doi = {10.1111/spc3.12233}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spc3.12233/full}, author = {Trigg, Josh and Kirrilly Thompson and Bradley P Smith and Bennett, Pauleen} } @article {bnh-3420, title = {Application of Remote Sensing Data to Constrain Operational Rainfall-Driven Flood Forecasting: A Review}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {8}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, chapter = {456}, abstract = {

Fluvial flooding is one of the most catastrophic natural disasters threatening people{\textquoteright}s lives and possessions. Flood forecasting systems, which simulate runoff generation and propagation processes, provide information to support flood warning delivery and emergency response. The forecasting models need to be driven by input data and further constrained by historical and real-time observations using batch calibration and/or data assimilation techniques so as to produce relatively accurate and reliable flow forecasts. Traditionally, flood forecasting models are forced, calibrated and updated using\ in-situ\ measurements, e.g., gauged precipitation and discharge. The rapid development of hydrologic remote sensing offers a potential to provide additional/alternative forcing and constraint to facilitate timely and reliable forecasts. This has brought increasing interest to exploring the use of remote sensing data for flood forecasting. This paper reviews the recent advances on integration of remotely sensed precipitation and soil moisture with rainfall-runoff models for rainfall-driven flood forecasting. Scientific and operational challenges on the effective and optimal integration of remote sensing data into forecasting models are discussed.

}, doi = {10.3390/rs8060456}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/6/456}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-3093, title = {Application of statistical techniques to pyrolysis-GC-MS data from soil to identify the impact of fire}, number = {226}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Soil organic matter has strong effects on many soil properties such as water holding capacity, soil structure and stability, nutrient availability and cation exchange capacity.\  Therefore, characterising soil organic matter is necessary to improve soil management.\  Pyrolysis coupled to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (pyr-GC-MS) is one of many techniques that have been successfully used in this characterisation.\  However, a major limitation of pyr-GC-MS is that generates large amounts of mass-spectrometry data preventing fast, high throughput data analysis.\  This hinders our ability to identify compounds in complex matrices such as SOM that could be useful for predicting their characteristics.\  In this study, we aimed to investigate whether it was possible to rapidly identify significant differences among pyr-GC-MS data from soil from burnt and unburnt areas using an unsupervised statistical approach and identify the specific features that cause them.\  Of nearly 400 useful compounds extracted from the pyr-GC-MS data, only 15 were found to be necessary to classify between burnt and unburnt soil.\  We discuss how these features could be useful in the classification of soil disturbance such as fire or, potentially, as a quantitative measure of fire impact (intensity or severity).

}, author = {Malcolm Possell and Gharun, Mana and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-3418, title = {Approaches to the assessment of children in the context of disasters}, journal = {Current Psychiatry Reports}, volume = {18}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, chapter = {45}, abstract = {

Children exposed to disasters are a vulnerable population, making the assessment of children post-disaster an important issue. Utilizing a Multiple Gating Stepped Care framework, we\ highlight recent literature\ related to post-disaster assessment and intervention for children. In particular, we focus on screening, clinical evaluation, and feedback-informed service delivery. Screening allows large populations of children to be assessed at a relatively low cost. Children identified by screening as being at risk may then be assessed through more in-depth clinical evaluations, in order to assess clinical symptoms, strengths, and stressors, and to make determinations about appropriate interventions. Continued assessment during therapy provides important feedback for the delivery of appropriate care. New formats for assessment, as well as issues related to identifying sources for assessment, are discussed. Recommendations for future directions are provided.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11920-016-0683-4}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11920-016-0683-4}, author = {Betty S. Lai and Eva Alisic and Rayleen Lewis and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3228, title = {Assessing the application and value of participatory mapping for community bushfire preparation}, journal = {Applied Geography}, volume = {76}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

The increased ease for individuals to create, share and map geographic information combined with the need for timely, relevant and diverse information has resulted in a new disaster management context. Volunteered geographic information (VGI), or geographic information voluntarily created by private citizens enabled through technologies like social media and web-based mapping, has changed the ways people create and use information for crisis events. Research has focussed on disaster response while largely ignoring prevention and preparedness. Preparing for disasters can reduce negative impacts on life and property, but despite strategies to educate communities, preparation remains low. This study assesses the application and value of VGI in bushfire risk reduction through a participatory mapping approach. It examines VGI as a social practice and not simply a data source by considering the user experience of contributing VGI and the potential for these activities to increase community connectedness for building disaster resilience. Participatory mapping workshops were held in bushfire-risk communities in Tasmania. Workshop activities included a paper-mapping exercise and web-based digital mapping. Survey results from 31 participants at three workshops indicated the process of mapping and contributing local information for bushfire preparation with other community members can contribute to increased social connectedness, understanding of local bushfire risk, and engagement in risk reduction. Local knowledge exchange was seen as valuable, but the social dimension appeared even more engaging than the specific information shared. Participants reported collaborative maps as effective for collating and sharing community bushfire information with a preference for digital mapping. Some limitations of online sharing of information were also reported by participants, however, including potential issues of privacy, data quality and source trustworthiness. Further work is needed to extrapolate findings from the study sample to the broader population.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.09.019}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622816304520}, author = {Haworth, B and J Whittaker and Eleanor Bruce} } @mastersthesis {bnh-3521, title = {Assessing the potential, application, and implications of volunteered geographic information in disaster risk reduction}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2017}, pages = {205}, school = {The University of Sydney}, type = {PhD}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis examines the potential role of volunteered geographic information (VGI) practices in fostering community engagement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Through various technological innovations citizens can now collect, share and map geographic information for disaster management in unprecedented ways. VGI refers to the widespread voluntary engagement of private citizens in the creation of geographic information, predominantly through sources such as social media, smartphones and inexpensive online mapping tools. VGI represents shifts in the ways geographic information is created, shared, used and experienced. This has important implications for various applications of geospatial information, including disaster management, and geographers, with a broad cross-section of skills spanning modern critical human geography and the technical components of GIS, are ideally positioned to examine the impacts of VGI. VGI technologies enable cost-effective, rapid sharing of diverse geographic information from community members at all stages of the disaster management cycle, including prevention, preparation, response and recovery (PPRR). But VGI also presents new challenges, including issues of data quality, data management, liability and the digital divide. Research in this emerging area has focussed on disaster response while largely ignoring prevention and preparedness. Preparing for disasters dramatically reduces the likelihood of negative impacts on life and property and there is a global need for increased community engagement in DRR. This thesis provides valuable insight into how VGI can contribute to addressing this need, where, particularly in the preparedness phase of PPRR, VGI considered as a social practice and not simply a type of data has potential to aid in building community connectedness, risk awareness and increased disaster resilience.

The objective of this research is to assess the usefulness of VGI in fostering community bushfire preparation engagement and increased disaster resilience, and to ascertain the broader impacts of VGI practices on traditional top-down systems such as emergency management. The thesis has several main components. First, community surveys were completed with residents of bushfire-risk communities in Tasmania to examine bushfire preparedness and the current uptake, usage patterns and limitations of VGI technologies like social media. Results indicated high potential for the use of VGI in community engagement in DRR, but also important challenges related to demographics, usage patterns and trust of online information.

Second, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 13 emergency management professionals to assess their views on how community VGI practices are impacting authoritative emergency management. The study identified key opportunities and challenges of VGI for emergency management, as well as how community-driven bottom-up systems such as VGI can both disrupt and complement authoritative top-down systems.

Third, a novel participatory mapping approach to VGI was employed through community workshops in four Tasmanian communities to assess the user-experience of contributing local information for community bushfire preparation, and the value to individuals of sharing knowledge and mapping collaboratively with other community members for DRR. Workshop observations and questionnaire results provided evidence that participatory mapping of VGI in bushfire management aids the promotion of social inclusion, capacity building and enablement of democratic participation. While the local knowledge exchanged was of value to participants in their bushfire preparedness, the social vi quality of VGI appeared to be the most valuable element of participatory mapping. Concerns regarding VGI that arose in the study included issues of data quality, privacy, trust and the underrepresentation of particular individuals or groups in: the study; community bushfire management; and mapping and geospatial datasets.

This thesis develops a multifaceted understanding of the opportunities and challenges of VGI in community DRR and resilience building, as well as the broader implications of VGI on traditional authoritative systems, social systems, and the disciplines of geography and geographic information science. Significantly, VGI disrupts the traditional top-down structure of emergency management and reflects a culture shift away from organisational power, control and regulation of information. The thesis argues changes to traditional systems catalysed by VGI involve decentralisation of power and increased empowerment of citizens, where value can be increasingly recognised in both {\textquoteleft}expert{\textquoteright} and citizen-produced information, initiatives and practices.

}, url = {https://billyhaworth.com/publications/}, author = {Haworth, B} } @article {bnh-3427, title = {Assessing the utility of the TET-1 hotspot detection and characterization algorithm for determining wildfire size and temperature}, journal = {International Journal of Remote Sensing}, volume = {37}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, pages = {4731-4747}, chapter = {4731}, abstract = {

The detection and characterization of wildfires using satellite remote-sensing systems has improved considerably over the last 30 years, with daily, global coverage maintained by a number of satellite systems. The recent deployment of new satellite systems, such as Technologie-Erprobungs-Tr{\"a}ger-1 (TET-1/Technology-Experiments-Carrier-1), with a higher spatial resolution than the current satellite sensing systems employed for global fire detection, presents an opportunity to investigate the utility and accuracy of the TET-1 detection and characterization algorithm in detecting fires over a range of areas and temperatures. In this study, simulated fire landscapes were generated based on varying fire area (1{\textendash}100,000\ m2) and fire temperature (450{\textendash}1200\ K) and passed through the TET-1 algorithm. The results indicate the TET-1 algorithm to estimate fire area to {\textpm}12\% and fire temperature to {\textpm}3\%, which implies that under the test conditions, the products generated by TET-1 have a low systematic error.

}, doi = {10.1080/01431161.2016.1204026}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2016.1204026}, author = {Simon Mitchell and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Eckehard Lorenz and Ralf Reulke} } @article {bnh-3436, title = {An Assessment of Pre- and Post Fire Near Surface Fuel Hazard in an Australian Dry Sclerophyll Forest Using Point Cloud Data Captured Using a Terrestrial Laser Scanner}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {8}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, abstract = {

Assessment of ecological and structrual changes induced by fire events is important for understanding the effects of fire, and planning future ecological and risk mitigation strategies. This study employs Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) data captured at multiple points in time to monitor the changes in a dry sclerophyll forest induced by a prescribed burn. Point cloud data was collected for two plots; one plot undergoing a fire treatment, and the second plot remaining untreated, thereby acting as the control. Data was collected at three epochs (pre-fire, two weeks post fire and two years post fire). Coregistration of these multitemporal point clouds to within an acceptable tolerance was achieved through a two step process utilising permanent infield markers and manually extracted stem objects as reference targets. Metrics describing fuel height and fuel fragmentation were extracted from the point clouds for direct comparison with industry standard visual assessments. Measurements describing the change (or lack thereof) in the control plot indicate that the method of data capture and coregistration were achieved with the required accuracy to monitor fire induced change. Results from the fire affected plot show that immediately post fire 67\% of area had been burnt with the average fuel height decreasing from 0.33 to 0.13 m. At two years post-fire the fuel remained signicantly lower (0.11 m) and more fragmented in comparison to pre-fire levels. Results in both the control and fire altered plot were comparable to synchronus onground visual assessment. The advantage of TLS over the visual assessment method is, however, demonstrated through the use of two physical and spatially quantifiable metrics to describe fuel change. These results highlight the capabilities of multitemporal TLS data for measuring and mapping changes in the three dimensional structure of vegetation. Metrics from point clouds can be derived to provide quantified estimates of surface and near-surface fuel loss and accumulation, and inform prescribed burn efficacy and burn severity reporting.

}, doi = {10.3390/rs8080679}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/8/679}, author = {Luke Wallace and Vaibhav Gupta and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-2916, title = {An assessment of the effectiveness of tree-based models for multi-variate flood damage assessment in Australia}, journal = {Water}, volume = {8}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, chapter = {282}, abstract = {

Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. In Australia, physical losses caused by floods are commonly estimated by stage-damage functions. These methods usually consider only the depth of the water and the type of buildings at risk. However, flood damage is a complicated process, and it is dependent on a variety of factors which are rarely taken into account. This study explores the interaction, importance, and influence of water depth, flow velocity, water contamination, precautionary measures, emergency measures, flood experience, floor area, building value, building quality, and socioeconomic status. The study uses tree-based models (regression trees and bagging decision trees) and a dataset collected from 2012 to 2013 flood events in Queensland, which includes information on structural damages, impact parameters, and resistance variables. The tree-based approaches show water depth, floor area, precautionary measures, building value, and building quality to be important damage-influencing parameters. Furthermore, the performance of the tree-based models is validated and contrasted with the outcomes of a multi-parameter loss function (FLFArs) from Australia. The tree-based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Consequently, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models is recommended. The outcome is important for improving established Australian flood loss models and assisting decision-makers and insurance companies dealing with flood risk assessment.

}, doi = {10.3390/w8070282 }, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/8/7/282}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo and Priyan Mendis} } @article {bnh-5076, title = {An assessment of the opportunities to improve strategic decision-making in emergency and disaster management}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, abstract = {

The management of major emergencies is strongly influenced by the decisions made during the event. Decisions guide the distribution and subsequent deployment of assets, the removal of people from harm{\textquoteright}s way, how objectives are established and a myriad of other actions. Decision-making is therefore an important skill for emergency managers that permeates every emergency event and every level of disaster management. The vast majority of decisions made during an incident are effective enough in both process and outcome, but the drive for continual improvement and the need to manage more extreme events requires decision-making to become sophisticated and to achieve even higher levels of reliability. So how well are emergency management organisations integrating acknowledged developments in the understanding of decision-making? Where are the opportunities for continual improvement? What are some of the challenges that the expert decision-maker is required to balance across an event? This paper examines key concepts that have progressed the understanding of decision-making. A review of preliminary interactions with end-users of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (CRC) research project {\textquoteright}Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex situations{\textquoteright} considers how Australian and New Zealand are using this knowledge to make decisions. Opportunities for improvement and the approaches being taken to evaluate cognitive decision tools for end-users are identified.

}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-oct-2016-an-assessment-of-the-opportunities-to-improve-strategic-decision-making-in-emergency-and-disaster-management/}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Christopher Bearman and Owen, Christine and Rainbird, Sophia} } @article {bnh-2973, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {187}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the Problem?
In 2010, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) adopted resilience as one of the key guiding principles for making the nation safer. The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (Australian Government 2011) outlines how Australia should aim to improve social and community resilience with the view that resilient communities are in a much better position to withstand adversity and to recover more quickly from extreme events. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 also uses resilience as a key concept and calls for a people centred, multi-hazard, multi-sectoral approach to disaster risk reduction. As such each tier of government, emergency services and related NGOs have a distinct need to be able assess and monitor the ability to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters as well as a clear baseline condition from which to measure progress.
Why is it Important?
Society has always been susceptible to extreme events. While the occurrence of these events generally cannot be prevented; the risks can often be minimised and the impacts on affected populations and property reduced. For people and communities, the capacity to cope with, adapt to, learn from, and where needed transform behaviour and social structures in response to an event and its aftermath all reduce the impact of the disaster and can broadly be considered resilience. Improving resilience and thereby reducing the effects of natural hazards has increasingly become a key goal of governments, organisations and communities within Australia and internationally.
How are we going to solve it?
The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index project will produce a spatial representation of the current state of disaster resilience across Australia. The index will be composed of multiple levels of information that can be reported separately and represented as colour-coded maps where each point will have a corresponding set of information about natural hazard resilience. Spatially explicit capture of data will facilitate seamless integration of the project outcomes with other types of information. The index and indicators will also be drawn together as a State of Disaster Resilience Report which will interpret resilience at multiple levels and highlight hotspots of high and low elements of natural hazard resilience.

}, issn = {187}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Phil Morley and Graham Marshall and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and James McGregor and Ian Reeve} } @article {bnh-2585, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Conceptual framework and indicator approach}, number = {157}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazard management policy directions in Australia {\textendash} and indeed internationally {\textendash} are increasingly being aligned to ideas of resilience.\  There are many definitions of resilience in relation to natural hazards within a contested academic discourse (Klein et al., 2003; Wisner et al., 2004; Boin et al., 2010; Tierney, 2014).\  Broadly speaking, resilience to natural hazards is the ability of individuals and communities to cope with disturbances or changes and to maintain adaptive behaviour (Maguire and Cartwright, 2008).\  Building resilience to natural hazards requires the capacity to cope with the event and its aftermath, as well as the capacity to learn about hazard risks, change behaviour, transform institutions and adapt to a changing environment (Maguire and Cartwright, 2008).\  The shift from a risk-based approach to managing natural hazards towards ideas of disaster resilience reflects the uncertainty associated with predicting the location and impacts of natural hazard events, the inevitability of natural hazard events, and the uncertainty of future natural hazard risks in a changing climate and population.

The emergency management community sits at the forefront of operationalizing ideas of disaster resilience.\  Australia{\textquoteright}s National Strategy for Disaster Resilience champions a resilience based approach to the challenges posed by natural hazards.\  Emergency management and other government agencies involved in hazard management are also adopting principles of natural hazard resilience in policies, strategic planning and community engagement (e.g. Queensland Reconstruction Authority, 2012).\  It is in light of the need to operationalize the concept of disaster resilience that we are developing the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.\ 

The index is a tool for assessing the resilience of communities to natural hazards at a large scale.\  It is designed specifically to assess resilience to natural hazards {\textendash} not derived for another purpose then modified to suit a resilience focus.\  The assessment inputs in several ways to macro-level policy, strategic planning, community planning and community engagement activities at National, State and local government levels.\  First, it is a snapshot of the current state of natural hazard resilience at a national scale.\  Second, it is a layer of information for use in strategic policy development and planning.\  Third, it provides a benchmark against which to assess future change in resilience to natural hazards.\  Understanding resilience strengths and weaknesses will help communities, governments and organizations to build the capacities needed for living with natural hazards.

There are two principal approaches to assessing disaster resilience using an index.\  Bottom-up approaches are locally based and locally driven and are qualitative self-assessments of disaster resilience (Committee on Measures of Community Resilience, 2015). Bottom-up approaches survey individuals or communities using a scorecard consisting of indicators of disaster resilience such as preparation, exposure to specific hazards, community resources and communication (e.g. Arbon, 2014).\  In contrast, top-down approaches are often intended for use at broad scales by an oversight body (Committee on Measures of Community Resilience, 2015) and use secondary spatial sources such as census data to quantitatively derive indicators that describe the inherent characteristics of a community that contribute to disaster resilience (Cutter et al., 2010).\  It is important to align the approach used with the purpose of the resilience assessment because bottom-up and top-down approaches both have a point of spatial or conceptual limitation beyond which conclusions about resilience are no longer valid.\  A framework that outlines the philosophical underpinnings of a project, linked to the mechanisms used to collect and interpret data, can help to scope and define relevant assessment approaches.\  A framework is an important tool for a resilience assessment because it defines the boundaries - the why, what and how - around the evidence that we use to derive our assessment of natural hazard resilience.

In this document we set out the framework for the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.\  The framework outlines the conceptual underpinnings of our approach {\textendash} why we are doing what we are doing {\textendash} then explains what we will assess about resilience using data aligned to our resilience philosophy.\  We then briefly explain howwe intend to measure these data and the indicators that we will collect to form the index.

}, issn = {157}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Phil Morley and Graham Marshall and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and James McGregor and Ian Reeve} } @article {bnh-3233, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Overview of Indicators}, number = {240}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index is an assessment of disaster resilience at a large, all-of-nation scale.\  It is the first national snapshot of the capacity for community resilience to natural hazards.

The conceptual model outlining the reasoning and design of the index has been reported previously in two publications:

This report overviews the indicators being used in the index, including their justification, source and measurement level.

Once the data for all indicators have been collected and compiled, statistical analysis will then commence to compute the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

}, issn = {240}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Phil Morley and James McGregor and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Graham Marshall and Ian Reeve and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill} } @article {bnh-3099, title = {Briefing paper: A proposed framework to assess strategies for engaging non-traditional emergency volunteers}, number = {232}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This briefing paper presents a proposed framework for assessing the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of four broad, alternative strategies available to emergency management organisations (EMOs) for engaging with non-traditional emergency volunteers and voluntary organisations: Ignore, Resist, Accept, and Embrace. The framework explicitly requires consideration of multifaceted consequences for key stakeholders groups beyond established EMOs (e.g. communities impacted, the volunteers themselves), and across the emergency management cycle (before, during and after an event).

The briefing paper begins with a research-based context and rationale for developing the engagement framework. It then presents the proposed engagement framework itself and briefly outlines a process that will be used between July and December 2016 to test and refine the framework for use by EMOs as an applied decision support tool. The refinement process is centred on a series of interactive workshops with key stakeholder groups to test the framework in an applied setting.

The engagement framework is being developed by RMIT researchers as a component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazard{\textquoteright}s Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering project (http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/resilient-people-infrastructure-and-institutions/248).

}, issn = {232}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-2557, title = {Building adaptive capacities for disaster resilience: what role for government?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, chapter = {31}, abstract = {

\ Natural disasters have always occurred regularly in Australia and governments have developed public policy responses for dealing with loss and damage resulting from disasters. In early 2011, Australian governments at all levels adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (NSDR) (Commonwealth of Australia 2011). The NSDR offered a new paradigm that called on all sectors of the community to adopt resilience-based behaviours in the face of the inevitability of natural disasters. Instead of being overly dependent on government and emergency services organisations, people were encouraged to become more self-reliant and share responsibility by gaining awareness, knowledge and taking action to reduce their risks. While there is a general consensus on the types of high-level policies needed for resilience, there is less information about how to translate disaster resilience policy into action. Addressing this gap depends in large part, on appropriate implementation of government policy to foster disaster resilience, including in a multi-level system of government, like in Australia. This paper, citing a lack of guidance for resilience policy implementation, proposes a resilience policy implementation framework that could be applied by practitioners. The theoretical basis for the framework consists of four networked adaptive capacities for resilience. Other elements include actions that support the development of these capacities and federal policy mechanism. The framework is tested and refined using four case studies corresponding with the four adaptive capacities and using data collected from five resilience initiatives operating within each tier of government and in the business and not-for-profit sectors.

}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-3050, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {188}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Annual Report summarises progress to date on Building Best Practice in Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR), with a focus on 2015-16.\  The first 2.5 years has included scoping and review, the development of a conceptual framework to guide the research, an utilisation roadmap, and the initiation of pilot and main research.\  The CC-DRR Project conceptual framework reflects a parsimonious research narrative designed to build on research-policy-practice progress to date but, critically, solve problems and challenges across that nexus.\  The narrative itself has two guiding questions as follows:

Research to date has commenced and is ongoing across these major areas.\  This includes research started in 2014-15, but continuing in 2015-16, focused on major stakeholders{\textquoteright} views, including children and youth, households and parents/caregivers, teachers and school personnel, emergency management/DRR professionals. It includes in 2015-16 initial research on CC-DRR-related student learning and DRR/resilience program outcomes, commencement of costings-related research, and research on implementation obstacles and facilitators for schools and emergency management agencies.\  With project End Users as primary stakeholders, 2015-16 reflected many consultations and end user capacity-building workshopping. This included their direct involvement in the Project to ensure that current CC-DRR-focused disaster resilience education (DRE) programs reflect their needs and reflect theory and promising, good and best practices (i.e., Through a {\textquotedblleft}co-development and co-evaluation{\textquotedblright} process with End Users, 2015-16 included developing and refining a CC-DRR Practice Framework. Since its development, the Framework has begun to be used to systematically evaluate End User agency DRE programs to ensure they reflect evidence-based practices (EBP{\textquoteright}s). The framework incorporates three core dimensions (design, implementation, evaluation) and three guiding principles (collaboration and partnership, protection and participation, diversity and equity) (see Figure 1 on p. 24).\ 

These agency-based DRE programs are now being examined for {\textquotedblleft}practice-based evidence{\textquotedblright} (PBE), including child learning outcomes and DRR and resilience outcomes.\  Both EBP and PBE steps are couched within an implementation framework, with project research designed to support both policy- and practice-based implementation of CC-DRR/DRE programs. Research on implementation began in 2014-15 and continues in 2015-16, including the commencement of a PhD study on EM agency implementation policies and practices.\  This report goes into more detail on this program of research and related activities, including summarising progress in CC-DRR research to date, as well as some important challenges that have been identified.

}, issn = {188}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers and John Handmer and Katharine Haynes and Eva Alisic and Nick Ireland and Marla Petal and Susan Davie and David Johnston and Vicki Johnson} } @conference {bnh-2943, title = {Building community cyclone resilience through academic and community partnership}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

This paper will present research from collaboration between the Cyclone Testing Station at James Cook University and insurer Suncorp over the last two years. A key outcome of this work in 2016 has been Suncorp{\textquoteright}s recognition of homeowner mitigation efforts through an insurance premium reduction program known as the {\textquoteleft}Cyclone Resilience Benefit{\textquoteright}. The research methods and findings that informed this program as well as other key outcomes including recommendations for codes and standards will be discussed. A broader context will also be presented including the political backdrop of the Productivity Commission inquiry into natural disaster funding and the recent Northern Australia Insurance Affordability Taskforce.

}, author = {Jon Harwood and D. J. Smith and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-3083, title = {Building resilient communities - effective multi-channel communication in disasters: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {219}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Recent natural hazard events in Australia and around the world provide constant reminders of why people should prepare and how people should behave. Yet, industry experiences and research shows that community members still fail to comply with instructions issued by government agencies [1]. Particularly in the response and recovery phases of a natural disaster, individuals ignore official emergency instructions in favour of community-generated warnings. While non-compliant behaviour is often not in the best interest of the individual or community, non-compliance is not necessarily malicious or even intentional. However, individuals who fail to comply with instructions issued during natural hazards significantly impede the emergency response because they (a) divert resources to compliance enforcement, (b) risk the lives of emergency service workers who may later be required to assist them, and (c) confuse the core safety message or instruction. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the legal ramifications of non-compliance from perspectives of individuals, agencies, or corporations.

This year the team have undertaken two work packages: (1) assessing message comprehension of emergency warnings (completed) and (2) experiments on message compliance (ongoing). Community message comprehension of emergency warnings was examined through ten focus groups across Australia. This qualitative work built on research conducted by end-user organisations and addresses issues raised by the National Review of Warnings and Information. Key findings included: time between message updates is used as a proxy for event severity, visuals aid in personalising the risk and overcoming limitations of geographic knowledge, location triggers attention and the personalisation of risk, hazard knowledge and past experience can influence message comprehension in ways that lead to negative unintended consequences, and over-warning is preferred to under-warning. Recommendations are made for how to amend existing emergency messages to improve community member message comprehension. Findings were reported to the BNHCRC 30 June 2016.

The experiments on message compliance are seeking to produce an evidence base for the effectiveness of existing message strategies, and work towards optimising those messages using theoretical insights from psychology, marketing, and behavioural economics. The findings from the community focus groups informed the different manipulations used in the experiments. For example, one experiment manipulated the time between updates with varying degrees of specificity and tested its effect on risk perceptions, information-seeking, and intentions to take protective action. Data collection is still underway and will be reported to the BNHCRC later this year.

Other activities completed during this reporting period included a workshop run by the Queensland University of Technology{\textquoteright}s Centre for Emergency and Disaster Management titled {\textquotedblleft}2036 Flood Hypothetical{\textquotedblright}. The event was attended by emergency services agencies, government agencies, and other key stakeholders, including representatives from the BNHCRC. The team has also engaged in on-going expert discussions with end-users and other key emergency management personnel around research results and utilisation.

In May 2016 the team attended the BNHCRC Research Advisory Forum in Hobart, Tasmania, where they presented an update on the project and ran a workshop with the end-users in attendance. The forum was valuable in gaining end-user input into the utilisation of the research. End-user engagement has been on-going throughout the year through one-on-one contact, teleconferences, bulletins, cluster bulletins, and face-to-face meetings where possible.

Some team members also attended and presented at the Australia New Zealand Emergency Management and Disaster Conference on the Gold Coast, Queensland in May 2016. The team also submitted a poster to the AFAC/BNHCRC 2015 Conference in Adelaide, South Australia.\ As the project moves forward, the next year will see completion of the required deliverables and utilisation of the research. As major natural disasters have a significant economic impact on society, even small changes\ in protective behaviours can be valuable [2]. Informed emergency messaging can subsequently reduce the costs associated with disasters, which are largely attributed to the public response to the disaster [3], and could potentially save lives.

}, issn = {219}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sharon Christensen and Bill Duncan and Amanda Stickley and Paula Dootson} } @article {bnh-2701, title = {Built environment exposure information framework}, number = {165}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia continue to highlight the disasterous mediating impact of the built environment on communities. Built environment exposure is the major component of exposure to natural hazards. However, there is no comprehensive information system available in Australia that provides fundamental and consistent knowledge around the elements of exposure of buildings, infrastructure, population and businesses under different natural hazards and the associated risk. The absence of a robust and quantitative evidence base is impeding the development and implementation of strategies for disaster management policy and planning. This study is to develop a Australian Natural Hazards Exposure Information Framework (ANHEF) that links strongly with National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (COAG, 2011). COAG (2011) states that {\textquotedblleft}Disaster resilience is the collective responsibility of all sectors of society, including all levels of government, business, the non-government sector and individuals. If all these sectors work together with a united focus and a shared sense of responsibility to improve disaster resilience, they will be far more effective than the individual efforts of any one sector.{\textquotedblright}

Consistent and reliable information on natural hazard exposure is crucial for disaster risk mitigation and evidence-based decision making. Exposure is referred to as the elements that have been, or could be, subject to the impact of natural hazards within an area (Middelmann et al, 2005, p.1). The elements that are at risk include buildings, assets, population, economic activities, services, utilities and infrastructure (EMA, 2004, p.48). Describing these elements in a nationally consistent exposure information framework will provide a reliable base to inform decision making for natural hazard risk reduction. There are few such capabilities in Australia to provide exposure information such as Geoscience Australia{\textquoteright}s (GA) National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) and a database developed by Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU) in New South Wales. NEXIS was developed with an aim to support GA{\textquoteright}s risk and impact analysis projects and provision of advice for climate change adaptation policy development through it is not comprehensive enough to underpin the entire spectrum of decision making for disaster risk reduction.

To manage the disasters\ effectively and efficiently, there is a compelling requirement to develop a nationally consistent framework for collection, collation and provision of expsoure information for researchers and decision makers.

}, issn = {165}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli and Itismita Mohanty} } @article {bnh-3476, title = {Burning anticipation: Wildfire, risk mitigation and simulation modelling in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Environment and Planning A}, volume = {48}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, pages = {2026-2045}, chapter = {2026}, abstract = {

Wildfire is a global environmental {\textquoteleft}problem{\textquoteright} with significant socioeconomic and socionatural impacts that does not lend itself to simple technical fixes (Gill et\ al., 2013: 439). In Australia, a country with a pronounced history of disastrous landscape fires, these impacts are expected to increase as the peri-urban population continues to grow and the climate continues to change. This paper draws upon the burgeoning literature on anticipatory regimes to analyse an in-depth case study of a government pilot in the highly fire-prone State of Victoria, where practitioners have utilised a simulation model to measure and intervene in the distribution of wildfire risk. The pilot presents the {\textquoteleft}calculative collective device{\textquoteright} (Callon and Muniesa, 2005) of wildfire management at a moment of what I label {\textquoteleft}calculative rearticulation{\textquoteright}, wherein figurations of the future are rebooted, reconstructed or recalibrated; such moments, I suggest, can reorient the institutionally conservative spaces {\textendash} such as environmental or risk management {\textendash} providing opportunities for practitioners and others to interrogate the existing distribution of hazards and anticipatory interventions. Through such opportunities {\textquoteleft}hazardous{\textquoteright} more-than-human landscapes can be imagined otherwise.

}, doi = {10.1177/0308518X16651446}, url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16651446}, author = {Timothy Neale} } @conference {bnh-2940, title = {The bushfire convective plume experiment: mobile radar observations of pyro-convection from the Mt Bolton fire, 2016}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Immediately above fires are the extremely localised columns of buoyant air known as convective plumes. The intensity and evolution of convective plumes is critical in the understanding of lofting and spotting of firebrands, where plume structure begins to play an important role in how the firebrands are spatially distributed. Weather radar has been demonstrated as a highly effective tool in analysing plume structure and evolution, but there is very little research using mobile radar in the field despite its proven effectiveness in deconstructing the meteorology of severe convection in thunderstorms. In January 2016, observations were taken at two bushfires using a portable dual-polarisation X-band Doppler radar in Victoria. One of these fires at Mt Bolton showed significant plume-driven fire behaviour, with a convective plume extending up to 7 km above the surface captured on the mobile radar. Here we present the initial findings of this observational dataset of convective plume dynamics, with unprecedented detail in resolution including the development of a deep convective cloud above the fire. We also show that a unique differential reflectivity signature within the dual-polarisation data could bear potential links to the identification of ember and firebrand transport within the plume. This is explored for the Mt Bolton fire where several spot fires were documented over 5 km from the fireground.

}, author = {Nicholas McCarthy and Hamish McGowan and Adrien Guyot} } @article {bnh-2657, title = {Calibration and validation of FLFArs {\textendash} a new flood loss function for Australian residential structures}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {16}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, pages = {15-27}, chapter = {15}, abstract = {

Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustain- able developments are increasing the risk of floods. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial con- sequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster im- pacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful.

In this paper, a newly derived flood loss function for Australian residential structures (FLFArs ) has been presented and calibrated by using historic data collected from an extreme event in Queensland, Australia, that occurred in 2013. After- wards, the performance of the method developed in this work (contrasted to one Australian model and one model from USA) has been compared with the observed damage data collected from a 2012 flood event in Maranoa, Queensland. Based on this analysis, validation of the selected methodolo- gies has been performed in terms of Australian geographical conditions.

Results obtained from the new empirically based function (FLFArs ) and the other models indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models is strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estima- tion without model calibration might result in inaccurate predictions of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, es- pecially if models have not been calibrated with real damage data.

}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-16-15-2016}, url = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/15/2016/}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo and Lehman, W.} } @article {bnh-2486, title = {Capturing community experiences in the 2015 Sampson Flat fire}, number = {154}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Sampson Flat fire in January 2015 was the most destructive fire in the Adelaide Hills for more than 30 years, burning 12,569 hectares of public and private lands with losses including 24 homes, 146 other structures, 5 businesses and much livestock and fencing.

Following this fire, the CFS commissioned the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to undertake research on the community{\textquoteright}s bushfire experience focusing on bushfire safety, the CFS Community Fire Safe program and information and warnings. Researchers from\ CQUniversity completed the research.

The research used both quantitative data from online and telephone surveys, and qualitative data from face-to-face or telephone interviews. Participants from fire affected and fire threatened areas were recruited by the CFS through their electronic and community networks. The research identified a number of positive findings in terms of messaging, bushfire awareness and safety, which are outlined in the introduction of the report.

The report is split into four parts. Parts one, two and three detail sub-project{\textquoteright}s within the larger project, while the appendices make up the fouth part.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-6-2}, author = {Danielle Every and Amy Reynolds and Larissa Clarkson and Christopher Bearman and Raymond Matthews and Laura Haigh and Drew Dawson} } @article {bnh-2562, title = {Centralised coordination of spontaneous emergency volunteers: the EV CREW model}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, abstract = {
This paper presents a case study of Emergency Volunteering {\DH} Community Response to Extreme Weather (EV CREW). EV CREW is a best-practice model for centrally coordinating spontaneous volunteers who respond during emergencies. The model was developed by Volunteering Queensland, a not-for-profit organisation and the peak volunteering body in Queensland. The case study outlines the EV CREW model, with particular attention on intended outcomes for community resilience and emergency management. It presents spontaneous volunteering as an empowering and legitimate component of recovery and resilience and, when coordinated appropriately, it adds value to recovery, is rewarding for volunteers, and reduces associated risks for volunteers, recipient organisations and communities. It also emphasises that central coordination does not replace traditional emergency management volunteering nor informal helping behaviour and emergent volunteerism. Instead, models like EV CREW extend existing emergency management arrangements to increase the variety of ways available for people to contribute to emergency management and disaster recovery.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-01-07}, author = {Julie Molloy and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-3302, title = {The changing landscape of disaster volunteering: opportunities, responses and gaps in Australia}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {84}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, abstract = {

There is a growing expectation that volunteers will have a greater role in disaster management in the future compared to the past. This is driven largely by a growing focus on building resilience to disasters. At the same time, the wider landscape of volunteering is fundamentally changing in the twenty-first century. This paper considers implications of this changing landscape for the resilience agenda in disaster management, with a focus on Australia. It first reviews major forces and trends impacting on disaster volunteering, highlighting four key developments: the growth of more diverse and episodic volunteering styles, the impact of new communications technology, greater private sector involvement and growing government expectations of and intervention in the voluntary sector. It then examines opportunities in this changing landscape for the Australian emergency management sector across five key strategic areas and provides examples of Australian responses to these opportunities to date. The five areas of focus are: developing more flexible volunteering strategies, harnessing spontaneous volunteering, building capacity to engage digital (and digitally enabled) volunteers, tapping into the growth of employee and skills-based volunteering and co-producing community-based disaster risk reduction. Although there have been considerable steps taken in Australia in some of these areas, overall there is still a long way to go before the sector can take full advantage of emerging opportunities. The paper thus concludes by identifying important research and practice gaps in this area.

}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11069-016-2532-5}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-7917, title = {The changing landscape of disaster volunteering: opportunities, responses and gaps in Australia}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {84}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, chapter = {2031}, abstract = {

There is a growing expectation that volunteers will have a greater role in disaster management in the future compared to the past. This is driven largely by a growing focus on building resilience to disasters. At the same time, the wider landscape of volunteering is fundamentally changing in the twenty-first century. This paper considers implications of this changing landscape for the resilience agenda in disaster management, with a focus on Australia. It first reviews major forces and trends impacting on disaster volunteering, highlighting four key developments: the growth of more diverse and episodic volunteering styles, the impact of new communications technology, greater private sector involvement and growing government expectations of and intervention in the voluntary sector. It then examines opportunities in this changing landscape for the Australian emergency management sector across five key strategic areas and provides examples of Australian responses to these opportunities to date. The five areas of focus are: developing more flexible volunteering strategies, harnessing spontaneous volunteering, building capacity to engage digital (and digitally enabled) volunteers, tapping into the growth of employee and skills-based volunteering and co-producing community-based disaster risk reduction. Although there have been considerable steps taken in Australia in some of these areas, overall there is still a long way to go before the sector can take full advantage of emerging opportunities. The paper thus concludes by identifying important research and practice gaps in this area.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2532-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-016-2532-5}, author = {Blythe McLennan and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-2723, title = {Child Health and Survival in a Changing Climate: Vulnerability, Mitigation, and Adaptation}, journal = {Geographies of Children and Young People}, volume = {8}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, abstract = {

The effects of climate change include increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as well as adverse changes in air pollution, increased spread of climate-sensitive disease, and heightened food insecurity. All of these effects are predicted to have a significant impact on global mortality and morbidity, and the available evidence indicates that children are most at risk. In order to protect child health, immediate action to both mitigate further climate change and adapt to existing and expected impacts is required. This chapter reviews the existing literature on the health impacts of climate change on children. It identifies children as key stakeholders in action and decision-making for mitigation and adaptation at a variety of scales. It also highlights how child participation in research, policy, and practice will increase the effectiveness and sustainability of solutions for addressing the health impacts of climate change. The chapter concludes with a call for the climate change community to make a more concerted effort to incorporate the needs and capacities of children into its core agenda.

}, url = {http://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-981-4585-95-8_34-1}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan and Mayeda Rashid} } @article {bnh-2853, title = {Child-centered disaster risk reduction: Can disaster resilience programs reduce risk and increase the resilience of children and households?}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

There has been an increasing research and policy focus internationally on the role of child-centred disaster risk reduction and resilience (CC-DRR), including disaster risk reduction and resilience education programs for children and youth. This paper summarises developments and emphasises current progress and challenges. While research has increased in the past 15 years, there are significant research gaps, including those regarding the effectiveness of programs and their relatively patchy implementation. How to solve these problems has been the focus of a world-first national program of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Building on international and national research to date, this paper focuses on the question of {\~A}{\textdaggerdbl}how can we create, evaluate, implement and scale up CC-DRR programs that work over time, including during disasters and into adulthood, to reduce risk and increase resilience for children, youth, schools, households and communities? This includes a guiding model for research and use, and a set of research-informed tools either developed or being developed to facilitate further progress.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-03-16}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Katharine Haynes and Avianto Amri and Briony Towers and Eva Alisic and Susan Davie and Nick Ireland and Marla Petal} } @inbook {bnh-4383, title = {Children as change agents in reducing risks of disasters}, booktitle = {Education in Times of Environmental Crisis: Teaching Children to be Agents of Change}, year = {2016}, publisher = {Routledge}, organization = {Routledge}, chapter = {21}, address = {New York}, issn = {978-1-138-94435-0}, author = {Mayeda Rashid and Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-3227, title = {Comparison of remotely sensed and modelled soil moisture data sets across Australia}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {186}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, abstract = {

This study compared surface soil moisture from 11 separate remote sensing and modelled products across Australia in a common framework. The comparison was based on a correlation analysis between soil moisture products and\ in situ\ data collated from three separate ground-based networks: OzFlux, OzNet and CosmOz. The correlation analysis was performed using both original data sets and temporal anomalies, and was supported by examination of the time series plots. The interrelationships between the products were also explored using cluster analyses. The products considered in this study include: Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; both Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere (LMEB) algorithms), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2; both LPRM and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) algorithms) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) satellite-based products, and WaterDyn, Australian Water Resource Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L), Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Mount{\textquoteright}s Soil Dryness Index (MSDI) and CABLE/BIOS2 model-based products. The comparison of the satellite and model data sets showed variation in their ability to reflect\ in\ situ\ soil moisture conditions across Australia owing to individual product characteristics. The comparison showed the satellite products yielded similar ranges of correlation coefficients, with the possible exception of AMSR2_JAXA. SMOS (both algorithms) achieved slightly better agreement with\ in situ\ measurements than the alternative satellite products overall. Among the models, WaterDyn yielded the highest correlation most consistently across the different locations and climate zones considered. All products displayed a weaker performance in estimating soil moisture anomalies than the original data sets (i.e.\ the absolute values), showing all products to be more effective in detecting interannual and seasonal soil moisture dynamics rather than individual events. Using cluster analysis we found satellite products generally grouped together, whereas models were more similar to other models. SMOS (based on LMEB algorithm and ascending overpass) and ASCAT (descending overpass) were found to be very similar to each other in terms of their temporal soil moisture dynamics, whereas AMSR2 (based on LPRM algorithm and descending overpass) and AMSR2 (based on JAXA algorithm and ascending overpass) were dissimilar. Of the model products, WaterDyn and CABLE were similar to each other, as were the API/AWRA-L and KBDI/MSDI pairs. The clustering suggests systematic commonalities in error structure and duplication of information may exist between products. This evaluation has highlighted relative strengths, weaknesses, and complementarities between products, so the drawbacks of each may be minimised through a more informed assessment of fitness for purpose by end users.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.09.015}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716303583}, author = {C.M Holgate and R.A.M. De Jeu and Albert van Dijk and Y.Y Liu and Luigi J. Renzullo and Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and R.M. Parinussa and R. Van Der Schalie and A. Gevaert and Jeffrey Walker and D. McJannet and J. Cleverly and V. Haverd and Trudinger, C and Briggs, P} } @article {bnh-3411, title = {Conflicting perspectives on nonhuman animal rescues in natural disasters}, journal = {Society \& Animals}, volume = {24}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {358-382}, chapter = {358}, abstract = {

Nonhuman animal guardians are more at risk during natural disasters because they are likely to delay or refuse evacuation and return to evacuated disaster sites to rescue animals. Research on the human-animal bond (HAB) views animal guardians{\textquoteright} actions as a reflection of a strong attachment. However, in addition to guardians, disaster planners, rescue personnel, and other community members influence which animals are saved and how. As Irvine (2009) noted, the way people and institutions think about different animals precedes which animals are included in disaster efforts, and when and how these animals are included. This paper considers how media articles on animal rescues use moral evaluations of animals to justify or challenge people{\textquoteright}s actions in saving or not saving animals. We found that the multiple moral evaluations of animals and animal rescue were a source of misunderstanding and conflict during and after a disaster.

}, doi = {10.1163/15685306-12341417}, url = {http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/15685306-12341417}, author = {Danielle Every and Clemence Due and Kirrilly Thompson and Jillian Ryan} } @article {bnh-3231, title = {Contacts versus connectors: The role of Community Fire Safe Group coordinators in achieving positive bushfire safety outcomes}, journal = { International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {19}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, abstract = {

Shared responsibility for bushfire preparedness includes self-reliant communities with the skills, knowledge and ability to minimize the impacts of bushfires on their homes, properties and community. Community preparedness groups are a potentially effective way to achieve this self-reliance. Previous research shows that these groups increase people{\textquoteright}s knowledge and awareness of risk, their planning and preparations, and community cohesion and collaboration. However, these are not outcomes for all groups in all places. Groups face a perennial problem of low participation and {\textquoteleft}buy in{\textquoteright} from the local area due in part to individual differences in the desire to be part of a group, low levels of risk awareness, community turbidity, and low social capital. This paper proposes that the skills and characteristics of the group coordinator in responding to and overcoming these challenges are key to a group{\textquoteright}s longevity, collaboration and success. Using interviews and a survey with Community Fire Safe group coordinators and members affected by the 2015 Sampson Flat fire in South Australia, we found the key elements of successful coordination were active outreach to existing neighbourhood residents, newcomers and those {\textquoteleft}not into groups{\textquoteright} using face to face and personalized communication adapted for different people{\textquoteright}s needs. This active, determined persistence in communicating bushfire safety was motivated by an understanding that low interest can be overcome and that overcoming it is the key role of the group coordinator. Training for coordinators in the individual and group processes underpinning behavior change, in personalized communication, and adapting materials for diverse groups is likely to improve group outcomes.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.09.012}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916303120}, author = {Danielle Every and Christopher Bearman and Raymond Matthews and Amy Reynolds and Peta O{\textquoteright}Donohue and Larissa Clarkson} } @conference {bnh-4158, title = {Correlation of peak wind loads at batten-truss connections}, booktitle = {18th Australasian Wind Engineering Society Workshop}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, publisher = {Australasian Wind Engineering Society}, organization = {Australasian Wind Engineering Society}, address = {McLaren Vale}, abstract = {

Wind loads on roofs fluctuate significantly, both across their surfaces and in time. A 1/50 scale wind tunnel study was conducted to determine the correlations of these load fluctuations on batten to truss connections. This study found that load histories between neighbouring connections are correlated and are sensitive to wind direction. Critical wind directions that cause the highest uplift loads are not necessarily those that experience the highest correlations amongst neighbouring connections. Additionally, for different wind directions loads at connections to the left, right or diagonally across from the critical connections are more correlated, suggesting that the path that a progressive failure takes is dependent on wind direction and the location on the roof where it initiates.

}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @conference {bnh-3386, title = {Correlation of peak wind loads at batten-truss connections}, booktitle = {Mechanics of Structures and Materials XXIV}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {CRC Press}, organization = {CRC Press}, address = {Perth, Australia}, url = {https://www.crcpress.com/Mechanics-of-Structures-and-Materials-XXIV-Proceedings-of-the-24th-Australian/Hao-Zhang/p/book/9781138029934}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-3421, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategies for residential buildings in Australian flood plains}, journal = {International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering}, volume = {6}, year = {2016}, pages = {550-559}, chapter = {550}, abstract = {

In recent years, floods have impacted many Australian communities. The floods have resulted in significant logistics for emergency management and considerable costs to all levels of government and property owners to undertake damage repair and enable community recovery.

These impacts are fundamentally the result of inappropriate development on floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood-prone areas. The Australian Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood-prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplain area.

This paper presents the outcomes of this ongoing project. Key tasks of the project include: (1) a classification of residential building stock, (2) a review of flood mitigation strategies, (3) vulnerability assessment of typical building types with and without mitigation, and (4) benefit cost analyses of all retrofit options for a range of severity/likelihood of flood hazard covering a selection of catchment types. The work will provide information on the optimal retrofit strategies in the context of Australian construction costs and catchment characteristics.

The research will also entail experimental testing of preferred materials to ascertain their resilience to flood water exposure. The outcome of this research will be an evidence base to inform decisions about mitigating the risk posed by buildings on floodplains. The information will be targeted to all levels of government, insurance industry and private property owners.

}, doi = {10.2495/SAFE-V6-N3-550-559}, url = {https://www.witpress.com/elibrary/sse-volumes/6/3/1349}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-3098, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {231}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The seismic risk posed by earthquakes to buildings in our major cities in Australia is significant with the world insurance market rating a modest magnitude 6 earthquake occurring in Sydney to be in their world{\textquoteright}s top 10 of financial risks.\  A major reason for this is that Australia had not designed buildings for earthquake-induced forces until 1995, so a large portion of our building stock is seismically vulnerable.\  As demonstrated in Christchurch New Zealand in 2010-11, a magnitude 6 earthquake can have a devastating impact on a city and country (damage rebuild estimated at ~ 20\% national GDP) even though buildings there have been designed for earthquakes for many decades.

This project will investigate:

1)\ \ \  The relative vulnerabilities to earthquake shaking of the most common forms of building construction in Australia;

2)\ \ \  What earthquake retrofit techniques worked and what didn{\textquoteright}t work in Christchurch as a starting point to developing a {\textquoteleft}menu{\textquoteright} of economically feasible seismic retrofit techniques that could be used in Australian cities; and

3)\ \ \  With industry end-user support, conduct proof of concept tests on some of the most promising seismic retrofit techniques on buildings scheduled for demolition by the South Australian state government;

4)\ \ \  Use the new damage and economic loss models developed over the first 3 years of this project to undertake a seismic risk assessment case study of the Melbourne metro area.\  In conjunction with the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, make recommendations for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base developed.

5)\ \ \  Advance a series of end user focused research utilisation projects in the areas of improved building regulation, community risk reduction, design profession guidance and insurance industry engagement with their policy holders.

This information will then be fed into a {\textquoteleft}decision support tool{\textquoteright} being developed in the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquotedblleft}Decision support system for assessment of policy and planning investment options for optimal natural hazard mitigation{\textquotedblright} that will be used by end users to develop consistent national policies for the application of seismic design of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings.

}, issn = {231}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-3095, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {229}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011 and 2013, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. The flood events also resulted in significant logistics for emergency management and disruption to communities. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. The vulnerability of existing building stock contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

To date, the project within the BNHCRC has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. Five typical storey types have been selected which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies are being costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Furthermore, testing of material susceptibility is being scoped to address knowledge gaps I the areas of strength and amenity.

In the following years of the project vulnerability of predominant storey types will be assessed along with the factors affecting vulnerability. The information on vulnerability is fundamental to evaluate mitigation strategies and to examine the opportunities for reducing the vulnerability. The research will include experimental testing of preferred material types to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. Cost benefit analysis will be conducted to find optimal mitigation strategies for selected building types located within a range of catchment types.

This project is investigating methods for upgrading existing housing stock in floodplains to increase their resilience in future flood events. It is important that the latest research and economically optimum upgrading solutions are applied to existing houses to optimise the use of finite mitigation resources. The project will provide an evidence base to inform decision making by governments and property owners to reduce flood risk. The risk mitigation achieved will decrease human suffering, improve safety and ensure amenity for communities.

}, issn = {229}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-4147, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings: Development of costing modules for flood mitigation strategies}, number = {333}, year = {2016}, month = {06/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project titled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

As a first step to achieving this goal this project has developed a building schema to categorise the Australian residential building stock. The next step was to conduct a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review categorises the strategies into elevation, relocation, dry floodproofing, wet floodproofing and the use of flood barriers. The review helps to evaluate the strategies that suit Australian building types and typical catchment behaviours and, hence, may be adopted in Australia.

Five typical storey types have been selected to evaluate the above mentioned mitigation strategies which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia. The selected storey types are:

A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. This report discusses the application of these strategies to the five selected storey types during two construction regimes i.e. existing state before any event and a substantial renovation or reconstruction after an event. Each mitigation strategy has been evaluated and has been costed through engagement of professional quantity surveyor.

In future years (2016-2020) of this project, strength degradation of common building components (materials, structural systems) due to wetting and subsequent drying will be assessed through experimental testing. Vulnerability of selected storey types will also be assessed along with the factors affecting vulnerability. Cost benefit analyses will be conducted to determine optimum retrofit strategies for selected residential building types within a range of catchment behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and an optimal solution for different cases of building and catchment types.t

}, issn = {333}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-2920, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {179}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of the project is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes by running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned outcomes of the project include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of a coupled model on the national computing infrastructure and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.\ Weather forecasting and fire prediction are similar in that skilled practitioners of both rely on a combination of detailed scientific knowledge and objective analysis, juxtaposed with pattern recognition that draws on past experience and a mental inventory of previous events. By preparing detailed case studies and coupled simulations of events in which unexpected or unusual fire-atmosphere interactions occurred, we contribute to both the scientific understanding for fire{\textendash}atmosphere interactions and the knowledge base of operational meteorologists and fire analysts.

The project has been staffed for just four months, and is commencing work on two main fronts. The first of these is implementing the coupled model ACCESS-Fire (ACCESS is the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator). We have obtained the source code from Monash University and are preparing for installation and testing. Progress has been slowed a little by a major change in the ACCESS model infrastructure, which has mean that some necessary components for very high resolution simulation are not yet available. We attended an ACCESS training workshop to ensure that we have the necessary skills to properly run the model.

After extensive consultation with end users, we have identified the Waroona fire in Western Australia (WA) in January 2016 as our first case study. This was a significant and complex event, with the impacts including the destruction of the town of Yarloop. We have made good progress on collecting and analysing data and preparing an initial draft report that describes the meteorology and fire activity during the first two days of this event, in collaboration with Western Australian fire scientists. We have also prepared an initial simulation of the event, without fire coupling

}, issn = {179}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-2675, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of the Rocky River fire using WRF-SFIRE}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {55}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {

The coupled atmosphere-fire behaviour model WRF-SFIRE has been used to simulate a fire where extreme fire behaviour was observed. Tall flames and a dense convective smoke column were features of the fire as it burnt rapidly up the Rocky River gully on Kangaroo Island, South Australia. WRF-SFIRE simulations of the event show a number of interesting dynamical processes resulting from fire-atmosphere feedback including that: fire spread was sensitive to small changes in mean wind direction; fire perimeter was affected by wind convergence resulting from interactions between the fire, atmosphere and local topography; and the fire plume mixed high momentum air from above a strong subsidence inversion. At one-minute intervals, output from the simulations showed fire spread exhibiting fast and slow pulses. These pulses occurred coincident with the passage of mesoscale convective (Rayleigh-B{\`e}nard) cells in the planetary boundary layer. Simulations show that feedback between the fire and atmosphere may have contributed to the observed extreme fire behaviour. The findings raise questions as to the appropriate information to include in meteorological forecasts for fires as well as future use of coupled and uncoupled fire simulation models in both operational and research settings.

}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0157.1}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills and Jeffrey Kepert and Lachlan W. McCaw} } @article {bnh-3186, title = {Curvature effects in the dynamic propagation of wildfires}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {25}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, abstract = {

The behaviour and spread of a wildfire are driven by a range of processes including convection, radiation and the transport of burning material. The combination of these processes and their interactions with environmental conditions govern the evolution of a fire{\textquoteright}s perimeter, which can include dynamic variation in the shape and the rate of spread of the fire. It is difficult to fully parametrise the complex interactions between these processes in order to predict a fire{\textquoteright}s behaviour. We investigate whether the local curvature of a fire perimeter, defined as the interface between burnt and unburnt regions, can be used to model the dynamic evolution of a wildfire{\textquoteright}s progression. We find that incorporation of curvature dependence in an empirical fire propagation model provides closer agreement with the observed evolution of field-based experimental fires than without curvature dependence. The local curvature parameter may represent compounded radiation and convective effects near the flame zone of a fire. Our findings provide a means to incorporate these effects in a computationally efficient way and may lead to improved prediction capability for empirical models of rate of spread and other fire behaviour characteristics.

}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16070}, author = {James Hilton and Jason J. Sharples and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-3081, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning in emergency management: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {222}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is evidence that incidents associated with natural hazards are becoming more complex and that strategic level emergency management is becoming an ever more sophisticated workplace environment. If we are going to expect people to operate in this environment we need to ensure that their skills and tools effectively support them. We need to develop the capability of our people to function in these increasingly complex environments now and into the future.

This project seeks to develop practical decision tools that can help people to function more effectively in complex emergency management environments. Towards this aim the project has three main research streams that seek to: provide enhanced methods of making decisions; develop methods to better monitor and modify the behavior of teams; and to identify the enablers and barriers to organisational learning so that the capabilities needed can continue to adapt and change.

In the team monitoring stream, a comprehensive literature review of methods to monitor teams from the position of operational oversight has been conducted. Based on this literature review and discussions with end users two methods (EMBAM \& TBM) have been selected and have received preliminary evaluation. This preliminary evaluation has proved to be encouraging and has led to both NSW SES and CFS proposing to use the tools operationally during the 2016-17 storm and fire seasons. This will provide further opportunities for evaluation and development.

In the decision making stream, research has identified both the context in which decisions are made (e.g. the policies \& procedures) and the informal strategies that people use to function within dynamic, pressured work environments. This work has identified opportunities for improvement and ways to bring the formal and informal elements of decision-making closer together. Decision making has also been explored in the context of organisational resilience and the REAG Resilience Health Check Tool. Based on these activities strategies and approaches to enhance decision making have been identified and will be evaluated with end-users through 2016-17.

In the organisational learning stream, interviews have revealed that strategic-level emergency managers need to assess learning through trade-offs where agency values and the complexities involved in managing incidents interact. The findings also suggest that there are sometimes complementary but often conflicting standards against which crisis management may be judged. Finally there is often a difference between assumptions about how emergencies {\textquotedblleft}ought{\textquotedblright} to be managed (espoused theories) and how they in fact are managed. The research in this stream is now focused in working closely with end users to unpack these tensions and contradictions.

Through these three streams of activity then the project is developing a range of practical tools and strategies that have the potential to enhance decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning. It seems likely that strategic emergency management will be becoming increasingly complex in the near future. The research presented here contributes to developing the capability

}, issn = {222}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Rainbird, Sophia and Stuart Matthews} } @article {bnh-3422, title = {Deriving comprehensive forest structure information from mobile laser scanning observations using automated point cloud classification}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {82}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {142-151}, chapter = {142}, abstract = {

The advent of mobile laser scanning has enabled time efficient and cost effective collection of forest structure information. To make use of this technology in calibrating or evaluating models of forest and landscape dynamics, there is a need to systematically and reproducibly automate the processing of LiDAR point clouds into quantities of forest structural components. Here we propose a method to classify vegetation structural components of an open-understorey eucalyptus forest, scanned with a {\textquoteleft}Zebedee{\textquoteright} mobile laser scanner. It detected 98\% of the tree stems (N\ =\ 50) and 80\% of the elevated understorey components (N\ =\ 15). Automatically derived DBH values agreed with manual field measurements with r2\ =\ 0.72, RMSE\ =\ 3.8\ cm, (N\ =\ 27), and total basal area agreed within 1.5\%. Though this methodological study was restricted to one ecosystem, the results are promising for use in applications such as fuel load, habitat structure, and biomass estimations.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.025}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216301207}, author = {Marselis, S and Marta Yebra and Jovanovic, T and Albert van Dijk} } @article {bnh-2922, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {175}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

As extreme fires cause a disproportionate amount of impact to the environment and the community, there are significant incentives to being able to predict their occurrence and behaviour. Most existing fire behaviour models have been developed based on data and observations of fires that were small to moderate in size. Consequently, they are not able to emulate the dynamic bushfire behaviour that can occur under extreme conditions.

Indeed, current operational fire spread models assume that fires will burn at an approximately constant (quasi-steady) rate of spread under a specific set of environmental conditions (e.g. VESTA, McArthur Mk5, CSIRO models). While a number of advances have been made in understanding bushfire development under extreme conditions, these have not been quantified in a manner that is suitable for inclusion in a fire behaviour modelling framework.

The main aims of this project are to investigate the conditions and processes under which bushfire behaviour undergoes major transitions, including fire convection and plume dynamics, evaluating the consequences of eruptive fire behaviour (spotting events, convection driven wind damage, rapid fire spread) and determining the combination of conditions for such behaviours to occur (e.g. unstable atmosphere, fuel properties and weather conditions). To do this the collation and analysis of existing data on extreme fire behaviour will be done.

}, issn = {175}, author = {Thomas Duff and Trent Penman and Alex Filkov} } @article {bnh-2917, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels:Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {173}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study is to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities (including the action of surface gravity waves) around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms.

Significant progress has been made in the four main areas of investigation. In particular, the modelling system now incorporates and combines the main 3 areas of development detailed in the project aims (wave-set-up, extra-tropical transition, continental shelf waves). Simulations are currently being undertaken with the use of an unstructured grid for the Australian region at a 100m resolution at the coastline. Model validations, through comparison with field measurements have been completed for specific events including: Tropical cyclones in WA (TC George) and Queensland (TC Yasi) , Extratropical Transition event in WA (TC Alby) and, Extra-tropical storms in WA and SA (winter 2007), and Continental Shelf Waves. Simulations have also been undertaken for the recent east coast low event in New South Wales in June 2016.


Work on meteotsunamis has continued and been extended beyond the initial study undertaken in Western Australia, associated with the ship accident in Frementle Port, to cover the whole of Australia and over 200 events were identified from the tide gage records over the past 5 years.\ Discussions with end-users have continued to develop final products. In addition, discussions with Bureau of Meteorology are ongoing to develop synergies with the work that the BNHCRC project team is undertaking and the Bureau developments for an operational storm surge warning system for Australia.

}, issn = {173}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @article {bnh-2725, title = {Development and evaluation of FLFAcs - A new Flood Loss Function for Australian commercial structures}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,}, volume = {17}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {13-23}, chapter = {13}, abstract = {

Commercial building flood losses significantly affect the Australian economy; however, there are not many models for commercial flood damage estimation and their results are not reliable. This study has attempted to derive and develop a new model (FLFAcs) for estimating the magnitude of direct damage on commercial structures. The FLFAcs\ {\textendash} Flood Loss Function for Australian commercial structures, was calibrated using empirical data collected from the 2013 flood in Bundaberg, Australia, and considering the inherent uncertainty in the data sample. In addition, the newly derived model has been validated using a K-fold cross-validation procedure. The model performance has also been compared with the Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) damage functions from overseas, as well as the ANUFLOOD damage model from Australia.

The validation procedure shows very good results for FLFAcs\ performance (no bias and only five per cent mean absolute error). It also shows that ANUFLOOD, as Australia{\textquoteright}s most prevalently used commercial loss estimation model, is still subject to very high uncertainty. Hence, there is an immediate need for a project to build new depth{\textendash}damage functions for commercial and industrial properties.

Awareness of these issues is important for strategic decision-making in flood risk reduction and it could amplify the cognition of decision-makers and insurance companies about flood risk assessment in Australia.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.03.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091530131X}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari}, editor = {Tuan Ngo and Lehman, W.} } @article {bnh-3425, title = {Development and preliminary validation of the Constructive and Unconstructive Worry Questionnaire: A measure of individual differences in constructive versus unconstructive worry.}, journal = {Psychological Assessment}, volume = {28}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {1368-1378}, chapter = {1368}, abstract = {

This article presents a measure of individual differences in the tendencies to worry constructively and unconstructively, called the Constructive and Unconstructive Worry Questionnaire (CUWQ). The measure is based on a control theory perspective of worry and separates the tendency to worry in a way that facilitates goal-pursuit and threat reduction (constructive worry) from the tendency to worry in a way that hinders goal-pursuit while sustaining threat awareness (unconstructive worry). CUWQ scores were validated in 2 independent nonclinical samples, including North American (Sample 1, N = 295) and Australian (Sample 2, N = 998) residents. Final factor items were selected based on Sample 1, and the measure showed good model fit through a confirmatory factor analysis in Sample 2. In addition, scores on the 2 worry factors showed criterion-related validity by statistically predicting a variety of outcomes in both samples: Constructive worry was positively associated with punctuality and wildfire preparedness and negatively associated with trait-anxiety and amount of worry. Unconstructive worry, on the other hand, was positively associated with trait-anxiety and amount of worry, and negatively associated with punctuality and wildfire preparedness. The 2 factor scores were uncorrelated in Sample 1 and positively correlated in Sample 2, thereby showing that having a tendency to worry in an unconstructive manner does not prohibit 1 from worrying in a constructive manner as well. Understanding how the 2 tendencies to worry differ from each other and separating their measurement enables a better understanding of the role of worry in both normal behavior and psychopathology.

}, doi = {10.1037/pas0000266}, url = {http://psycnet.apa.org/?\&fa=main.doiLanding\&doi=10.1037/pas0000266}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-5188, title = {Development and preliminary validation of the Constructive and Unconstructive Worry Questionnaire: A measure of individual differences in constructive versus unconstructive worry}, journal = {Psychological Assessment}, volume = {28}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {1368-1378}, chapter = {1368}, abstract = {

This article presents a measure of individual differences in the tendencies to worry constructively and unconstructively, called the Constructive and Unconstructive Worry Questionnaire (CUWQ). The measure is based on a control theory perspective of worry and separates the tendency to worry in a way that facilitates goal-pursuit and threat reduction (constructive worry) from the tendency to worry in a way that hinders goal-pursuit while sustaining threat awareness (unconstructive worry). CUWQ scores were validated in 2 independent nonclinical samples, including North American (Sample 1, N = 295) and Australian (Sample 2, N = 998) residents. Final factor items were selected based on Sample 1, and the measure showed good model fit through a confirmatory factor analysis in Sample 2. In addition, scores on the 2 worry factors showed criterion-related validity by statistically predicting a variety of outcomes in both samples: Constructive worry was positively associated with punctuality and wildfire preparedness and negatively associated with trait-anxiety and amount of worry. Unconstructive worry, on the other hand, was positively associated with trait-anxiety and amount of worry, and negatively associated with punctuality and wildfire preparedness. The 2 factor scores were uncorrelated in Sample 1 and positively correlated in Sample 2, thereby showing that having a tendency to worry in an unconstructive manner does not prohibit 1 from worrying in a constructive manner as well. Understanding how the 2 tendencies to worry differ from each other and separating their measurement enables a better understanding of the role of worry in both normal behavior and psychopathology.

}, doi = {10.1037/pas0000266}, url = {http://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/pas0000266}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-3538, title = {Development of a Multi-Spatial Resolution Approach to the Surveillance of Active Fire Lines Using Himawari-8}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {8}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, chapter = {932}, abstract = {

Satellite remote sensing is regularly used for wildfire detection, fire severity mapping and burnt area mapping. Applications in the surveillance of wildfire using geostationary-based sensors have been limited by low spatial resolutions. With the launch in 2015 of the AHI (Advanced Himawari Imaginer) sensor on board Himawari-8, ten-minute interval imagery is available covering an entire earth hemisphere across East Asia and Australasia. Existing active fire detection algorithms depend on middle infrared (MIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) channels to detect fire. Even though sub-pixel fire detection algorithms can detect much smaller fires, the location of the fire within the AHI 2 {\texttimes} 2 km (400 ha) MIR/TIR pixel is unknown. This limits the application of AHI as a wildfire surveillance and tracking sensor. A new multi-spatial resolution approach is presented in this paper that utilizes the available medium resolution channels in AHI. The proposed algorithm is able to map firelines at a 500 m resolution. This is achieved using near infrared (NIR) (1 km) and RED (500 m) data to detect burnt area and smoke within the flagged MIR (2 km) pixel. Initial results based on three case studies carried out in Western Australia shows that the algorithm was able to continuously track fires during the day at 500 m resolution. The results also demonstrate the utility for wildfire management activities.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs8110932}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/11/932}, author = {Chathura Wickramasinghe and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace} } @conference {bnh-2953, title = {Development of flood mitigation strategies for Australian residential buildings}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Globally floods cause widespread damage and loss of life and property. An analysis of global statistics conducted by Jonkman (2005) showed that floods (including coastal flooding) caused 175,000 fatalities and affected more than 2.2 billion people between 1975 and 2002. In Australia, floods cause more damage on an average annual basis than any other national disaster (HNFMSC, 2006). The fundamental causes of this severity of damage and the key factors contributing to flood risk, in general, are the vulnerable buildings constructed within floodplains and land-use planning.\ Recent events in Australia (2011, 2013 and 2015) highlighted the vulnerability of housing to flooding which originates from inappropriate development in floodplains. While there is a construction standard issued by the Australian Building Code Board (ABCB, 2012) for new construction in some types of flood-prone areas, a large proportion of the existing building stock has been built in flood-prone areas across Australia (HNFMSC, 2006). Flood losses from the recent events highlight the requirement of implementing effective and efficient mitigation measures to reduce losses in future.

}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-2913, title = {Disaster landscape attribution: fire surveillance and hazard mapping, data scaling and validation: Annual project report}, number = {172}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project attributes fire landscapes using the latest satellite based thermal earth observation systems for active fire surveillance. 3D remote sensing technologies have been trialed, and Structure from Motion (SfM) and Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) technologies and techniques used to quantify and map changes in the landscape before, and after, a fire event. The project brings together researchers from around the world including RMIT, the German Aerospace Agency DLR, CSIRO, the University of Twente in the Netherlands, Geoscience Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Combining these two aspects of this project allows for remote sensing to become a key tool in mitigating the risk of disaster caused by wildfire. Results demonstrated from the work completed in this project with feedback from project end-users highlight the potential for remote sensing tools to contribute to existing landscape management processes.\ This report provides a background to the project, discusses the key research questions being asked and describes the progress made. Key achievements over the last year are described and linked to research outputs and end user engagement and operations. The report concludes with activities planned for the year ahead and a list of currently integrated project members.

Highlights of 2015-2016 have included:

A workshop attended by local and interstate end users was held in December 2015 resulting in preliminary testing and data collection by end users in Victoria and South Australia. Two field\ days showcasing Fuels3D and seeking end user feedback have been scheduled for two days in July 2016 with participants attending from SA DEWNR, ACT Parks and Wildlife, Vic DELWP, Vic CFA, Parks Victoria and Melbourne Water.

}, issn = {172}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace} } @article {bnh-2803, title = {Disaster resilience education: A practice framework for Australian emergency management agencies}, number = {185}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper presents a practice framework for the development and delivery of school-based disaster resilience (DRE) education in the Australian national context. The purpose of the framework is to provide Australian emergency management agencies with a strategic, evidence-based approach to the development of DRE programs that reduce risk, increase resilience and can be implemented at scale. The framework is comprised of three guiding principles (Collaboration and Partnership, Protection and Participation, and Diversity and Equity) and three core dimensions (Design, Implementation, Evaluation). The structure and content of the framework has been informed by current international and national policy frameworks, existing DRE practice guidelines, and peer-reviewed research evidence. It has also been informed by consultations with representatives from the emergency management and education sectors. The framework should be viewed as a work-in-progress, which as it evolves, can assist in building capacity for best practice in DRE. To this end, the authors welcome and encourage critical feedback and commentary from both key stakeholders and the wider public.

}, issn = {185}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan and Katharine Haynes and Marla Petal and Susan Davie and Liz Addison and Tony Jarrett and Brenda Doren-Higgins and Conrad Walsh and Matthew Henry and Gwynne Brennan and Liz Tomazic and Peta O{\textquoteright}Donohue and John Richardson and Antonia Mackay and Ruth Noonan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6491, title = {Disaster Resilient Communities: Engagement with Spontaneous Volunteer Groups}, volume = {Masters of Environments}, year = {2016}, month = {06/2016}, school = {University of Melbourne}, type = {Masters}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study tackles the confliction between the willingness of the altruistic to assist in times of disaster against the capacity of the emergency management system to effective utilise the human resource effectively. The aim is to investigate the role of Spontaneous Volunteer Groups (SVGs) in strengthening community disaster resilience through a qualitative, context-driven research approach from a pragmatist viewpoint utilising open-ended questions. This approach is problem-driven occurring in the particular context of severe disaster events where traditional services are often overwhelmed and resources stressed. The data was collected from interviewees who have contributed significantly to the emergency management sector. The interviews were recorded, stored, analysed and emergent generalised and specific themes discussed in reference to the criteria set out in the national 2015 Spontaneous Volunteer Strategy.
The study contends that if the Australian community and emergency management sector are serious in achieving a society able to genuinely share responsibilities for resilience to disasters, and build community capacity, then the following should be promoted: inclusiveness {\textendash} including allowing SVGs to self-organise; power-sharing; transparency; engagement with volunteer motivations ; flexible volunteering models ; preparedness to manage volunteer emergence; disaster education and training, activities identification within all disaster phases; forming strong and lasting community links; addressing risk and liability; developing on-the-spot training procedures; sharing information , skills and knowledge; communication clarity; key liaisons; altering mindsets; social media engagement and essentially developing plans and actionable procedures for empowering people to demonstrate their resilience. Currently this path can be a difficult one to follow, despite its promotion with many national strategies, due to restrictions, barriers and complexities within the sector.
The expanded upon strategy can assist the government and Emergency Service Agencies (ESAs), in the face of limited policy, to recognise their responsibilities to operate together and engage meaningfully with alternative forms of assistance in a less restrictive emergency management system, to promote optimal protection of communities from future disasters. In complex environments ESAs must demonstrate flexibility to efficiently adapt, change and restore new and more resilient function to communities.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, resilience, spontaneous volunteers, volunteer groups, volunteers}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/229442}, author = {Gemma Gray} } @article {bnh-3054, title = {Discussion paper: Learning for emergency services, looking for a new approach}, number = {223}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is a discussion paper circulated for feedback and comment.\  The authors welcome your thoughts in response to the following questions, as well as any other thoughts, criticisms, concerns or ideas you would like to share.

Specific questions:\ 

  1. What do you think the community should expect from post-event reviews?
  2. Are we well served by current post-event review processes?
  3. Are the criticisms of current post-event reviews justified?
  4. Is there value in current post-event reviews that the authors have not identified or given due weight to?
  5. Do you agree with the suggestions for the move to restorative justice practices? Why or why not?
  6. Do you have other suggestions on how post event reviews may be improved and made more meaningful?
  7. How could we improve this report to make it more relevant, meaningful and helpful?
  8. Are there any other thoughts, criticisms, concerns or ideas you would like to share?

This paper reviews the processes used in inquiries following significant natural hazard events, and in particular bushfires.\  It is argued that the coroner/Royal Commissioner model has not proved effective in identifying learning that will help communities to rebuild relationships after an event, or develop resilience in anticipation of the next event.

After identifying shortcomings with current practices the paper argues that restructuring post event inquiries. Restorative justice is a concept established in the area of criminal law but it is argued that guidance from the restorative justice community could assist in formulating enquiries that would assist all the parties to come together to resolve collectively how to deal with the aftermath of the disaster and deal with its implications for the future.

The paper also argues that a standing Fire and Emergency Safety Bureau should be considered to conduct some enquiries and to act as a standing secretariat for inquiries in the nature of a Royal Commission.

Issues of compensation for those affected by natural disasters are touched upon.

}, issn = {223}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4668, title = {Displacement Based Design of Bridge Abutments}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

The present study deals with the drift and displacement capacities of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge abutments subjected to seismic excitations. Two dimensional (2D) finite element (FE) analyses have been conducted to investigate the behavior of the bridge abutment taking into account dynamic actions of the backfill in seismic conditions. The capability of scaled down bridge abutment models is also investigated in order to replicate the dynamic behavior of prototype bridge abutments. The analyses have taken into account interactions between the abutment and the backfill, which can significantly affect the seismically induced displacement behavior of the bridge abutments. It was observed that scaled down bridge abutment models could effectively replicate the seismic behavior of prototype bridge abutments. The stiffness of the bridge abutment degrades significantly with increasing intensity of ground motion. The location of the point of rotation of the bridge abutment is almost constant irrespective of the height of the stem wall. Drift and displacement behavior of the bridge abutment is highly controlled by the thickness of the stem wall.

}, keywords = {abutment, Bridge, design, performance, seismic, similitude.}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/337-Tiwari-et-al.pdf}, author = {Rohit Tiwari and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @conference {bnh-3561, title = {Displacement Capacity of Lightly Reinforced Rectangular Concrete Walls}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2016 Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, address = {Melbourne, Australia}, abstract = {

This paper investigates the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced rectangular walls. The design parameters and detailing of the walls considered in this study are typical of low-to-moderate seismic regions such as Australia. Obtaining accurate estimates of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced walls is a vital step towards producing realistic estimates of fragility curves of RC buildings in low-to-moderate seismic regions. It is shown in this investigation that the nominal yield displacement capacity for reinforced concrete walls that have low amounts of longitudinal reinforcement can sometimes be overestimated using the existing equations. An alternative approach is proposed here which gives a better match with experimental and numerical results and is particularly important for the reinforced concrete walls that exhibit a single crack in the plastic hinge zone. An ultimate curvature equation is proposed for when a wall is estimated to form a single crack in the plastic hinge region. A plastic hinge length equation which has been specifically derived for these types of walls is also introduced to estimate the plastic displacement of the wall due to plastic rotation at the base. Experimental and finite element modelling results are used to compare the displacement capacity predictions.\ 

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310846070_Displacement_Capacity_of_Lightly_Reinforced_Rectangular_Concrete_Walls}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4079, title = {Don{\textquoteright}t just do something, stand there! Mitigating goal seduction in emergency management}, journal = {National Emergency Response}, volume = {29}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, pages = {12-17}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Paper presented at the Australian and New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Broadbeach, Gold Coast (QLD), 30-31 May 2016.

}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=534876517163486;res=IELHEA}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Peter A. Bremner} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4106, title = {Economic analysis of prescribed burning in the south-west of Western Australia}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, school = {University of Western Australia}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

In recent years, the frequency and severity of large wildfires have increased in Australia. These large fires occur despite advances in fire fighting technology, considerable suppression efforts, and record expenditures on wildfire suppression. But increasing suppression capacity alone will not solve the wildfire problem. One way to manage wildfire risk is through the application of prescribed burning, a practice that has generated considerable debate. Despite much land being prescribed burned in parts of Australia, there has been almost no evaluation of the costs and benefits of the practice. This thesis explores the costs and benefits of this wildfire management strategy.

}, url = {http://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/economic-analysis-of-prescribed-burning-in-the-southwest-of-western-australia(19a8f03e-cfce-478f-8b29-c590d8a035d7).html}, author = {Veronique Florec} } @article {bnh-2586, title = {Economic loss modelling of earthquake damaged buildings}, number = {158}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Earthquake action has only been considered in structural design in Australia\ since the early 1990s. With a very low building replacement rate many Australian buildings are vulnerable to major earthquakes and pose significant risk to lives, properties and economic activities. The vulnerability of buildings was evident in the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989 which has been reported to have caused damage to more than 70,000 properties and an estimated total economic loss of AU$ 4 billion.

Models that are capable of predicting potential economic loss in future earthquakes are fundamental in the formulation of risk mitigation and retrofitting strategies. This report presents a review of the existing techniques and methodologies that have been developed for the earthquake damage loss modelling of buildings. Key components of the methodologies including definition of hazard intensity, classification of building data (developed separately by GA), definition of building damage states and definition of the relationship between the hazard intensity and resulting building damage will be discussed.

By developing an improved regional benefit-cost analysis methodology that analyses varying levels of retrofit by means of fragility curve-generated damage state probabilities, it is possible to demonstrate that the broad-scale economic benefits to the community outweigh the initial cost of a regional retrofit program. The improved methodology considers the direct economic losses, indirect regional losses to undamaged buildings, social losses due to casualties, as well as the fiscal benefits of preserving the heritage of the community.\  It is anticipated that this model and information that it provides will be fed to the {\textquoteleft}Decision Support{\textquoteright} research team.

}, issn = {158}, author = {Michael Griffith and Wade Lucas} } @article {bnh-2923, title = {Economics of natural hazards: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {177}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project tackles from an economics perspective issues relating to non-financial benefit estimation, risk analysis, and development of decision-making frameworks that would help deliver value for money from public investments in natural hazard management. It has a broad scope in terms of natural hazards, including fires, earthquakes, floods, cyclones and tsunamis. It aims to improve the management of bushfires and other natural hazards by delivering the following outcomes:

The research team has extensive experience in non-market valuation, integrated modelling and the economics of environmental and natural resource management and policy. The team has also recruited four outstanding environmental economists with extensive experience in.\ The project has continued to engage well with the end user community and other potential collaborators. Project staff have been keen to help identify research priorities and deliver research outcomes that are based on a broader analysis of the costs and benefits of mitigation options and inform management and policy choices accordingly. The project{\textquoteright}s major accomplishements for the year include the following:

}, issn = {177}, author = {David J Pannell and Atakelty Hailu and Fiona L Gibson and Veronique Florec and Morteza Chalak and Abbie Rogers} } @conference {bnh-3950, title = {The effect of modelling inelastic beam-column joint on the displacement capacity of reinforced concrete gravity moment resisting frames}, booktitle = {Australasian Structural Engineering Conference: ASEC 2016 }, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, publisher = {Engineers Australia}, organization = {Engineers Australia}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Mid-rise buildings in Australia typically have shear walls and cores as the primary lateral load resisting system and perimeter reinforced concrete moment resisting frames which form part of the gravity load resisting system. There are concerns about the displacement compatibility between the walls and the frames since in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity such as Australia insufficient consideration is given to the displacement capacity of the gravity load resisting systems. The gravity frames are mostly designed as ordinary moment resisting frames and thus have non-ductile detailing and are vulnerable to sudden undesirable failures. One of these failure mechanisms is due to the response of poorly detailed beam-column joints. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of inelastic beam-column joint response on the displacement capacity of reinforced concrete gravity moment resisting frames designed in accordance with the Australian standard considering only the gravity load.

}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=671772956997481;res=IELENG}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Pathmanathan Rajeev and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @conference {bnh-2931, title = {Effect of prescribed burning on wildfire severity - a landscape case study from the 2003 fires in Victoria}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

This study examined the effect of previous fuel reduction burning (FRB) on the severity of the 1 million ha+ 2003 Alpine Fire in eastern Victoria, which was one of the most extensive and severe fires to have occurred in south-eastern Australia in the preceding century. Over one million hectares of largely forests, woodlands and alpine vegetation was burnt in January and February 2003 in the state of Victoria, and another contiguous 600,000 ha was burnt in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, making these the most extensive fires in the area since 1939.


Some of the unusual features of this fire were that it burnt a large contiguous area stretching 180 km from east to west and 110 km from north to south in Victoria, and it burnt over a full two-month period. The size of the fire and the severity of the seasonal conditions (Bureau of Meteorology 2003) meant that about 49 per cent of the area burnt resulted in complete overstorey canopy removal, either through crown fire or scorching and resultant leaf loss. Very few areas remained unburnt within the perimeter of the fire. As the burnt area contained 100+ recent fuel reduction burns and wildfires (last 10 years, Fig. 1), this posed a rare opportunity to assess the effectiveness of prescribed burning on such a large scale and subjected to such high-intensity fires.

}, author = {Tolhurst, K.G. and G.J. McCarthy} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6622, title = {Effective communication of household wildfire risk through WebGIS: considerations in content, representation and design}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, school = {University of Western Australia}, abstract = {

This thesis demonstrated a personalised, map-based warning approach to provide effective wildfire warnings to the public. Theoretical and empirical studies were conducted to identify appropriate content, representations, and interactive design for developing a webGIS based warning tool. By providing empirically tested visual information, the proposed method has the potential to substantially improve public response to warnings. Whilst focused primarily on Australia , this design can be extended for application in other countries by accounting for local contexts. The holistic user-centred approach adopted in this research also provides systematic methodological guidance for designing effective map-based warnings for other hazards.

}, url = {https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/effective-communication-of-household-wildfire-risk-through-webgis}, author = {Yinghui Cao} } @conference {bnh-2944, title = {The effects of turbulent plume dynamics on long-range spotting}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Spotting is a hazardous phenomenon which leads to unpredictable fire behaviour and accelerated fire spread. Spot fires occur when embers are launched by bushfire plumes into the background wind, which then carries the embers a significant distance from the fire front. If the embers land in a suitable fuel bed and are still burning a spot fire may be ignited. The magnitude of the problem is illustrated by Cruz et al. (2012), who provide evidence of long-range spotting in excess of 30 km during the Black Saturday bushfires of February 2009. Therefore a better understanding of the processes that contribute to long-range spotting is essential for the prediction of fire spread. In this study we aim to assess the contribution of turbulent plume dynamics to the process of long-range spotting.

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-2616, title = {Emergency management perspectives on volunteered geographic information: Opportunities, challenges and change}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {57}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, abstract = {

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) refers to the widespread creation and sharing of geographic information by private citizens, often through platforms such as online mapping tools, social media, and smartphone applications. VGI has shifted the ways information is created, shared, used and experienced, with important implications for applications of geospatial data, including emergency management. Detailed interviews with 13 emergency management professionals from eight organisations across five Australian states provided insights into the impacts of VGI on official emergency management. Perceived opportunities presented by VGI included improved communication, acquisition of diverse local information, and increased community engagement in disaster management. Identified challenges included the digital divide, data management, misinformation, and liability concerns. Significantly, VGI disrupts the traditional top-down structure of emergency management and reflects a culture shift away from authoritative control of information. To capitalise on the opportunities of VGI, agencies need to share responsibility and be willing to remain flexible in supporting positive community practises, including VGI. Given the high accountability and inherently responsive nature of decision making in disaster management, it provides a useful lens through which to examine the impacts of VGI on official authoritative systems more broadly. This analysis of the perceptions of emergency management professionals suggests changes to traditional systems that involve decentralisation of power and increased empowerment of citizens, where value is increasingly recognised in both expert and citizen-produced information, initiatives and practises.

}, keywords = {Disaster management, Emergency management, Geospatial data, VGI, Volunteered geographic information}, doi = {10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2016.02.009}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971516300175}, author = {Haworth, B} } @article {bnh-3116, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards: annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {236}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the funded first stage, the project aims to develop vulnerability models for critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bush fire and earthquakes. In the second stage of the project, optimised maintenance and strengthening regimes required to enhance resilience of critical road structures will be identified and a decision making tool will be developed.

During the past year, the research focused on analysis of the case studies available from end user partners and development of the methodology for vulnerability modeling of bridges and floodways under natural hazards of flood, earthquake and bushfires. Three case studies were analysed to further establish the methodology and a reliability based approach was established to account for the variability of the frequency and the intensity of disasters. A field study was undertaken to understand the economic impact due to failure of road structures during the 2011 and 2013 floods in the Lockyer Valley region in Queensland.

Four workshops and a number of informal meetings were held during the project with excellent participation of end users and researchers. A mini-symposium held in July 2015 at RMIT University brought researchers, end users and wider stakeholders from across Australia and the UK. A stakeholder workshop held on 17 March 2016 identified end user needs and a utilisation plan was developed based on the outcomes. During the workshops, case study data were identified and the methodology for vulnerability modeling was refined. Future data needs were communicated to the end users.

Five Ph.D candidates commenced work with the research team on APA and IPRS scholarships. Three of the students secured Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC{\textquoteright}s top up scholarships as well. One Masters by research student and one PhD will complete in 2016 and 2017 respectively.\  Each of the four strands of the project has recruited a researcher to engage in the project and also utilised final year undergraduate projects to contribute to the research project.

Major outcomes during the past two years can be summarised as development of the vulnerability modeling methodology for critical road structures exposed to extreme events and demonstration of the methodology using four case studies. This work has been published in 26 Publications including 9 journal papers, 12 refereed conference papers and 5 reports. In addition, the project research team has been invited to a total number of 12 highly regarded conferences roundtables, workshops and forums to present keynote speeches, chair and co-chair panels and facilitate workshops.

}, issn = {236}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @conference {bnh-2938, title = {Evaluating topographic influences on the near-surface wind field of Tropical Cyclone Ita (2014) using WRF-ARW}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ita (2014) was a major storm that affected coastal areas of Northeast Queensland. Topographic features along the coastline are known to modify the structure and intensity of such events. This study utilises the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model to investigate topographic influences during the landfall phase of TC Ita. While the removal of topography over the whole domain steers the modelled TC far away from the landfall point, removing topography from only a smaller area allowed an investigation of the topographic influence on near-surface wind conditions in that area. Flow over the region of removed topography exhibit smaller inland velocity gradients for winds flowing onshore and a sharper acceleration of winds as they moved offshore.

}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke and M. S. Mason and Richard Krupar III} } @conference {bnh-2945, title = {Evidence-based practice, practice-based evidence: moving towards scaled implementation in child-centred disaster risk reduction}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) research conducted through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) is intended to have a focus on utilisation, translation and tightening the policy-practice-research nexus. An important link within this nexus relates to a fundamental proposition: Does the subject under empirical scrutiny have sufficient empirical support to be translated in both practice and policy sectors? In the case of our program of research in child-centered disaster risk reduction (CC-DRR), research has made some bona fide strides in the past 15 years producing data that supports two key questions linked to this fundamental proposition. The first question is {\textquoteleft}Are CC-DRR initiatives effective in reducing risk and increasing resilience for children, families, communities?{\textquoteright} The second question is {\textquoteleft}Can CC-DRR initiatives be sustainably implemented at scale?{\textquoteright}
Against this backdrop, this symposium intends to present findings of our program of research from 2014 to the present. These findings are drawn from a major scoping and review exercise, pilot research, co-development and co-evaluation of a practice framework for disaster resilience education and, in 2016, the evaluation of several flagship CC-DRR programs. The symposium will also present our CC-DRR research narrative, the accompanying conceptual framework and utilisation roadmap, and new perspectives on the sustainable and scaled implementation of evidence-based programs.\ 

}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-2755, title = {Examining bushfire policy in action: Preparedness and behaviour in the 2009 Black Saturday fires}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {63}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, chapter = {55}, abstract = {

An important part of reducing the risk of disaster is the preparedness of the people at risk. Australian bushfire authorities have policies and publicity about what households should do to be prepared {\textendash} which include knowledge about fire risk, awareness of one{\textquoteright}s own risk, taking specific steps to reduce risk including having an emergency plan. Yet, there is sparse empirical evidence about the link between preparedness and actual behaviour in the face of a major disaster.

The authors had an opportunity to examine the circumstances surrounding the 172 civilian fatalities which occurred in the 2009 Victorian {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires, through the examination of a detailed fatality dataset compiled by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. This dataset allows detailed examination of Victorian bushfire safety policy ({\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright}) in action on a day of extreme fire danger: from preparedness (both before and on the day of the fire) to behaviour on the day of the fire itself.

This analysis presents three overarching findings. First, some aspects of {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} appear to be supported: being well-prepared to evacuate remains the safest option in a bushfire; sheltering passively is very dangerous. Second, successful implementation of {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} depends on a multitude of factors, which can challenge even the most capable householders. Third, events like Black Saturday challenge the {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} approach, and indicate the need for a different approach on extreme fire danger days. We conclude by reflecting on the findings from this research in terms of the most recent changes to bushfire policy in Victoria.

}, keywords = {Behaviour, Preparedness, Safety policy, Vulnerability, Wildfire}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.05.011}, url = {http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1T6tW5Ce0rOF7M}, author = {John Handmer and O{\textquoteright}Neill, Saffron J} } @article {bnh-5078, title = {The Excess Heat Factor as a metric for heat-related fatalities: defining heatwave risk categories}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

Heatwaves represent Australia{\textquoteright}s most significant natural disaster in terms of mortality. A unanimous definition of what constitutes a heatwave does not currently exist. However, recent work from the Bureau of Meteorology (Nairn \& Fawcett 2013) has provided a metric designed to summarise their intensity. This metric, called the Excess Heat Factor, is being increasingly adopted by the research community as it is well-suited to characterise heatwave hazards. Yet the link between the Excess Heat Factor and the potential societal or economic impacts heatwaves can have is still not well understood. Using the PerilAUS archive of heat-related fatalities in Australia, this paper proposes to develop a classification of heatwave events in terms of their risk potential for human loss of life. This paper also quantifies the likely death toll from populations exposed to each of these categories. The category scheme is used to analyse the risk gradient of the three most lethal events in south-east Australia since 1900. The scheme helps communicate about heatwave fatality risk in Australia and provides some insight into the location of the populations under greatest threat. This study also catalogued 466 events in south-east Australia using the Excess Heat Factor and the newly developed heatwave categories. Using principal component analysis to identify the key modes of variability, a synthetic catastrophic heatwave scenario is generated and analysed for projected fatalities.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-04-13}, author = {Thomas Loridan and Coates, Lucinda and Daniel Arg{\"u}eso and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-2561, title = {Extending into community-led preparedness and planning just enough (but not too much?)}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, abstract = {

How can a well-organised, capable, and respected community group help improve local community bushfire safety and build resilience in a high risk area? That is the question the research team for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Out of Uniform project1 explored in a case study of a community-led bushfire preparedness project called Be Ready Warrandyte. Along the way, the case study raised questions about the appetite of the emergency management sector for supporting community-led preparedness and planning.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-01-02}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5073, title = {Fault tree analysis method for deterioration of timber bridges using an Australian case study}, journal = {Built Environment Project and Asset Management}, volume = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {
Purpose
{\textendash} Deterioration of timber bridges can often be related to a number of deficiencies in the bridge elements, connectors and/or as a result of been in aggressive environments which they are exposed to. The maintenance cost of timber bridges is affected significantly by a number of deterioration mechanisms which require a systematic approach for diagnosis and treatment. Evaluating the risk of failure of these bridges is of importance in bridge performance assessment and decision making to optimize rehabilitation options. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach
{\textendash} This paper identifies common causes for timber bridge deterioration and demonstrates an integrated approach based on fault tree analysis to obtain qualitative or quantitative estimation of the risk of failure of timber bridge sub-systems. Level 2 inspection report for a timber bridge in Queensland, Australia has been utilized as a case study in this research to identify the failure modes of the bridge.

Findings
{\textendash} A diagnostic tool for timber bridge deterioration will benefit asset inspectors, managers, and engineers to identify the type, size and the distress mechanisms in order to recognize the proper corrective measures either to prevent or to reduce further deterioration. Timber bridge maintenance is a major issue in Queensland, Australia. If a decision support tool can be developed, it will benefit road authorities and local councils.

Originality/value
{\textendash} Timber bridge maintenance is a major issue in Queensland, Australia. If a decision support tool can be developed as initiated in this research paper it will benefit road authorities and local councils.
}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/BEPAM-01-2016-0001}, url = {https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/BEPAM-01-2016-0001}, author = {Weena Lokuge and Nirdosha Gamage and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-2971, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {171}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster.
The project has now been running for approximately 15 months. The Science Plan has been finalized and the Advisory Committee has been settled. The experimental program is now up and running after a few initial delays caused by issues with sourcing adequate fuel and with development of experimental apparatus. The modelling and simulation aspects of the project have made a number of significant fire spread modelling developments and have made strong contributions to our understanding of the processes driving fire coalescence and dynamic fire spread more generally.\ In particular, the research has addressed the role that fire line geometry (especially curvature) plays in the dynamic propagation of wildfires. The project team has demonstrated that fire propagation models incorporating curvature dependence can out-perform quasi-steady (first-order) models when applied to simple wind-driven fires at both laboratory and field scales.


In addition, the research has produced a number of fundamental insights into how the shape of the fire line can affect the pyroconvective interactions between different parts of a fire. These insights have mostly been gained by targeted simulations using a coupled fire-atmosphere model.
At this stage the project has published two conference papers (one peer reviewed), and two conference posters. There are currently three journal papers submitted to international peer-reviewed journals with another one in the final stages of preparation. In addition, the project team has delivered thirteen presentations and posters to stakeholders and researchers.\ After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on schedule. The project team is confident that all milestones will be successfully delivered along with a number of unscheduled, yet significant research outputs.

}, issn = {171}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-3049, title = {Fire spread prediction across fuel types: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {214}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Operational models that are used to predict fire behaviour can be implemented easily and rapidly. However, the operational models are only truly valid in the range of experimental conditions used to build the model. This leads to a number of difficulties when using the existing operational models to predict real-world wildfires. Physics-based modelling, that is simulating the fire behaviour from the basic equations of atmospheric fluid flow, combustion, and thermal degradation of fuel materials offers considerable insight into the dynamics of wildfire. However, physics-based simulations are computationally intensive and, at present, can only be applied to small, idealised cases. Nevertheless, the aim of this project is to use physics based models to gain insight into wildfire behaviour and use that insight to improve the current operational models for fire behaviour prediction. With this in mind, a number of investigations are underway.

The effect of a tree canopy on the near surface wind speed is investigated using Large Eddy Simulation with a view to modelling the wind reduction factor due to the canopy. The wind reduction factor is used in operational fire prediction models such as the McArthur model, to account for the reduction in wind velocity due to a tree canopy. A set of full three-dimensional simulations over idealised rectangular canopies, where the length and leaf area density of the canopy are varied, were conducted. The flow over the canopy is characterised and the potential effects on fire spread of complicated flow structures that develop at the leading and trailing edges are assessed. The simulated wind speed in the fully-developed canopy flow and the wind speed far from canopy region is used to assess the constant wind-reduction factor modelling approach.

The physics of firebrand, or ember, transport is not well understood. The distance and dispersion of the firebrands depends greatly on the turbulent fluid flow which transports the firebrands. The physics-based modelling of firebrand transport is at a preliminary stage. We seek to validate a Lagrangian particle approach for firebrand transport modelling by comparing the results from an experimental firebrand generator with simulations of same scenario. Three particle shapes, cubical, cylindrical, and disc shaped particles, representing idealised firebrands have been studied. Qualitative features of the landing distribution of the firebrands have been identified. Simulations are in progress to compare with the experimental results. So far the results are encouraging. In a related study, the thermos-kinetic properties of firebrand materials, such as bark, twigs, and leaves have been measured. This data will then be used for simulations of burning firebrands.\ 

Fires in grasslands are prevalent in Australia, and are relatively simple to model computationally due to the uniform fuel and flat simple terrain. In the present study, the CSIRO grassland experiments are used as validation cases for the physics-based simulations.\  A parametric study has been conducted where the background windspeed and the grass height have been varied independently.\  The rate-of-spread was found to be linear with windspeed in the parameter range considered. Two simulations were conducted at different heights and correspondingly different bulk density, representing grass which had been cut and left on the ground.\  The fire in the taller grassland was found to have a higher rate-of-spread. Three simulations were conducted where the bulk density was kept constant as height varied. In these simulations no systematic dependence on grass height was observed.

Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) is a numerical technique to faithfully study fluid flows by resolving all the turbulent motions instead of resorting to modelling small scale turbulence. DNS provides great insight into the physics of flows but a limited to highly idealised and numerically tractable geometries such as channels. Nonetheless, such simulations can be used to gain insight into flows which have relevance to wildfire modelling. Three flows are studied: pressure driven flow over sinusoidal roughness, mixed convective flow (flow driven by both a temperature difference and a pressure gradient), and a buoyant line plume in a confined region.

In the future, the DNS work will contribute to improved turbulence and near-wall modelling used in the physics-based wildfire models. The results of simulations from physics-based wildfire models will in turn improve operational models. We eventually aim to produce models for the wind-reduction factor, improve knowledge of firespread in grasslands, and provide a model of firebrand transport, all of which can be used operationally.\ 

}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland and Graham Thorpe} } @conference {bnh-2954, title = {Forecasting the impact of tropical cyclones using global numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts: a Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) wind and rainfall case study}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Wind hazard and rainfall models were coupled to estimate hourly open exposure maximum three-second gust wind speeds and rainfall totals for Tropical Cyclone (TC) Marcia (2015) using Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) best track data. Yeppoon The Esplanade automatic weather station (AWS) was used to perform a verification of the simulated hourly open exposure maximum three-second gust wind speed and rainfall totals with observed estimates. Preliminary verification results reveal that the wind hazard model overestimates the AWS hourly maximum three-second gust wind speed and the rainfall model underestimates the hourly total rainfall. Ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) were examined to determine their utility in simulating TC Marcia{\textquoteright}s wind and rainfall fields and impacts. The ECMWF EPS fails to capture Marcia{\textquoteright}s rapid intensification at 72, 48, and 24 hours leading up to the landfall. A time-varying calibration factor is required at each forecast initialization in order to adjust each ensemble forecast member{\textquoteright}s minimum central pressure to a more realistic estimate of the minimum central pressure to properly simulate impacts to humans and the built environment.

}, author = {Richard Krupar III and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-2919, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {170}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2015-2016 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems. By undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across southern Australia, the project will provide critical support to agency decision makers across the region.\ This report describes the project goals, methods and activities since its commencement in July 2015. Naomi Stephens, our End User representative from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, provides an insight into the project{\textquoteright}s progress from a stakeholder perspective.

}, issn = {170}, author = {Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2695, title = {Fundamental Mechanics Governing FRP-Retrofitted RC Beams with Anchored and Prestressed FRP Plates}, journal = {Journal of Composites for Construction}, volume = {20}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, type = {Refereed}, abstract = {

It is often found that a major limitation to retrofitting RC beams by adhesive bonding fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) plates is premature debonding, which restricts the FRP strains to well below that at fracture. Tests have shown that the FRP peak strains can be increased by anchoring the plate ends of adhesively bonded plates and also by prestressing the anchored plates before adhesive bonding, both of which make the system much more efficient. In this paper, a mechanics-based numerical approach is developed that quantifies the stiffness, strength, and ductility of FRP retrofitted RC beams, in which the FRP plates are anchored, prestressed, and adhesively bonded. The approach can cope with any degree of anchorage and prestress and whether adhesively bonded or not. The approach is generic as it can be applied to any type of RC beam, anchor, and FRP plate and any distribution of load. Furthermore, it allows for discrete flexural cracks and for the formation of softening hinges should these occur. Worked examples are given as a possible design approach. This paper provides a design tool for engineers to develop and quantify their own FRP retrofitting systems for beams with anchored plates.

}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)CC.1943-5614.0000710}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)CC.1943-5614.0000710}, author = {D. J. Oehlers and Phillip Visintin and Wade Lucas} } @conference {bnh-2942, title = {Harnessing the capacities of spontaneous volunteers: application and adaptation of the Queensland model}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Spontaneous volunteers are defined in Australia as: {\textquoteleft}those who seek to contribute on impulse{\textemdash}people who offer assistance following a disaster and who are not previously affiliated with recognised volunteer agencies and may or may not have relevant training, skills or experience{\textquoteright} (Australian Red Cross 2010; Cottrell 2010). Spontaneous volunteering by unaffiliated members of the public following a disaster event is certainly not a new occurrence (Whittaker et al. 2015). Known in the sociological disaster literature as convergence, it is recognised as an inevitable and normal response to {\textemdash} particularly large-scale {\textemdash} disasters (Drabek and McEntire 2003; Sharon 2004). A related term that is not commonly used in Australian emergency management is {\textquoteleft}emergent volunteerism{\textquoteright}. This {\textquoteleft}involves new forms of volunteering that occur in response to unmet needs, whether perceived or real{\textquoteright} (Whittaker et al., 2015, p.363).


Spontaneous volunteering has gradually gained in profile and legitimacy in Australia disaster management over the five to ten years (Australian Red Cross 2010). This process has sped up due to the combination of a number of high-profile volunteering efforts such as the Brisbane Mud Army, and the shift toward a resilience-based approach to disaster management (COAG 2011). Most recently, a National Spontaneous Volunteer Strategy was endorsed by the Australia{\textendash}New Zealand Emergency Committee in late 2015 that provides guidance to emergency management organisations.


From a management and policy perspective, until recently spontaneous volunteering has largely been portrayed as an unpredictable and uncontrollable nuisance and risk rather than as a legitimate part of response and recovery (Helsloot and Ruitenberg 2004; Scanlon et al. 2014). Certainly, having unexperienced and uninformed members of the public converge on a disaster site presents many real and difficult to manage health, safety and wellbeing risks for volunteers, residents and trained responders alike (Whittaker et al., 2015). It can also disrupt the formal response effort and divert resources away from the people and communities that are directly impacted (Fernandez et al. 2006).

}, author = {Julie Molloy and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @conference {bnh-2933, title = {A high-resolution land dryness analysis system for Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Good estimates of landscape dryness underpin fire danger rating, fire behaviour models, flood prediction, and landslip warning. Soil dryness also strongly influences heatwave development by driving the transfer of solar heating from the soil surface into air temperature rise. Currently landscape dryness, for fire danger prediction, is estimated using very crude models developed in the 1960s that do not take into account different soil types, slope, aspect and many other factors. This work presents a high-resolution soil dryness analysis system that includes data from many sources; such as surface observations of rainfall, temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, as well as satellite-derived measurements of rainfall, surface soil moisture, downward surface shortwave radiation, skin temperature, leaf area index and tree heights. The analysis system estimates soil dryness on four soil layers over the top three metres of soil, the surface layer has a thickness of 10cm. The system takes into account the effect of different vegetation types, root depth, stomatal resistance and spatially varying soil texture. The analysis system has a one hour time-step with daily updating. Data assimilation methods are used to extract the maximum amount of useful information from the observations and model. The only practical way to observe the land surface on a national scale is through satellite remote sensing. Unfortunately, such satellite data is prone to biases and corruption. Therefore, it is essential to apply quality control and bias correction. In addition, satellite measurements are infrequent with repeat times of about one day and contain gaps. Data assimilation can filter the random errors from the satellite measurements and fill in both the spatial and temporal gaps in the measurements. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations from the OzNet, CosmOz and OzFlux networks shows that the new system is significantly more accurate than the traditional soil dryness indices.

}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar} } @article {bnh-3185, title = {Homelessness and severe storms: a case study of the June 2016 East Coast Low}, number = {238}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, type = {Report}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Historically, emergency planning for severe weather and natural disasters has focused on the housed population. However, people who do not have a house {\textendash} people rough sleeping, living in their cars, couchsurfing or staying in shelters {\textendash} are uniquely impacted by severe weather. There is as yet no Australian research documenting the homeless community{\textquoteright}s preparation for, response to and recovery from an event like the 2016 East Coast storms and floods that can be drawn on for emergency planning. Using interviews with homeless service providers and clients, this research documents the homeless community{\textquoteright}s experience of those storms in two locations. Interviews highlighted that long-term wet weather is felt to have the greatest impact on people{\textquoteright}s physical and mental health and on services{\textquoteright} ability to provide bedding and shelter. The main impacts were loss of temporary dwellings, bedding and possessions, anxiety and isolation, and ability to look after pets when evacuated.\  Evacuation shelters were heavily relied upon by those experiencing homelessness and people presenting here required medical and psychological for mental health issues and substance use withdrawals and also areas for pets. However, existing homeless services are already under-resourced, and many struggled to provide the extra support needed during and after the storms. Few services report having a relationship with emergency services, and in some areas any potential relationship was complicated by broader punitive policies and misperceptions about homelessness. A framework for increasing the resilience of the homeless community includes creating mutually beneficial relationships between emergency and homeless services that could facilitate greater understanding of homelessness and natural hazards.\ 

}, issn = {238}, author = {Danielle Every} } @conference {bnh-2936, title = {How do island communities balance disaster resilience and what can mainlanders learn from that?}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

This paper will look at the aspects of the character and balance of disaster risk reduction behaviour and resilience in island contexts focusing on the case study of Pulau Simeulue (Simeulue Island).\ The paper is in four parts, each setting out a context for understanding the relevance of islands for disaster risk reduction. The first will introduce the case study of Simeulue and its relevance to our understanding of disaster risk reduction ({\textquoteleft}DRR{\textquoteright}). The second section discusses the way in which islands have a special place in individual and community narratives and perceptions. It is argued that, far from being esoteric matters, the fact that we are capable of documenting different and deep-seated perceptions can lead to some wider lessons about mechanisms to build community resilience. The third section considers a biogeographic model of islands and the role they have played in the natural world, but also the how we have come to understand that world. Through a close examination of variability on and between islands we have come to a deeper understanding of biology generally. This context potentially lends itself to a wider understanding of DRR. Finally it will identify some of the specific properties of island communities that make them worthy of deeper consideration for a better understanding of DRR and growing community resilience in {\textquoteleft}mainland{\textquoteright} contexts.

}, author = {Sutton, S} } @conference {bnh-2941, title = {"I think I{\textquoteright}m going to be frightened out of my wits" psychological preparedness and vulnerability: insights from the Sampson Flat fire}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Bushfires and other natural disasters are becoming increasingly frequent and more severe. Australian bushfire projections suggest that by 2020 the number of days classified as {\textquoteleft}very extreme{\textquoteright} bushfire risk will double and by 2050 there may be as high as a four- to five-fold increase in frequency compared to data from 1990 (Lucas, Hennessy, Mills \& Bathols, 2007).


Research into preparedness, therefore, is increasingly important. Preparedness commonly refers to actions taken to protect oneself, one{\textquoteright}s family and property. For bushfires, this typically involves material preparedness, such as creating a cleared area and the house and having battery-operated communication devices. This kind of physical preparation also involves developing a bushfire plan (e.g. to stay or leave early; how to look after pets in a fire) and acquiring greater knowledge and understanding about bushfires and bushfire risk. However, a growing body of research identifies psychological preparedness as an important factor in natural disaster preparedness.

}, author = {Danielle Every} } @article {bnh-3956, title = {Identification and quantitative analysis of smoldering and flaming combustion of Radiata Pine}, journal = {Energy Fuels}, volume = {30}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

Smoldering combustion is an important combustion process in wildfires; however, there are fewer experimental studies recorded in the literature in comparison with flaming combustion. An experimental study was conducted to characterize the initiation of smoldering and flaming combustion of biomass using temporal and spatial temperature profiles, mass loss profiles, and gas analyses. The results show that the peak temperature, temperature rise rate, and average mass loss rate of flaming combustion are much higher than those of smoldering combustion. The results on the ratio of CO to CO2\ for flaming and smoldering combustion show good agreement with the data reported in the literature. The results also show that smoldering combustion can be initiated only under a low air flow; for the experimental apparatus used, this corresponded to flow velocity of <=38.1 mm{\textperiodcentered}s{\textendash}1. A combustion progress pathway diagram was developed that describes the stages of smoldering and flaming combustion of a single dry biomass particle. An analysis of combustion kinetic parameters (activation energy and pre-exponential factor) and an energy balance analysis were also conducted to understand the differences between smoldering and flaming combustion.

}, doi = {10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6b00314}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6b00314}, author = {Wang, Houzhi and van Eyck, P. J. and Medwell, P. R. and Birzer, C. H. and Tian, Z. F. and Malcolm Possell} } @conference {bnh-2948, title = {Improved predictions of Australian extreme sea levels through a coupled wave-surge model}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

In order to protect life and property coastal planners and emergency managers require accurate estimates of flood risk. Providing reliable predictions of extreme sea levels for this purpose represents a significant challenge due to the range of complex processes that vary from beach to beach, town to town, and state to state around the entire Australian continent. As a result, a reliable comprehensive dataset of extreme sea levels for the entire coastline does not yet exist. Recent technological advances have allowed us to develop a high-resolution numerical model capable of analysing ocean dynamics to better understand how storms will impact local beaches on an Australia-wide scale. The advanced, high-resolution (in the coastal zone ~100m) 3D finite element hydrodynamic model (SCHISM) coupled with the state-of-the art WWMIII wave model included the effects of wave breaking on top of storm surges caused by wind and pressure. Simulations of multiple extreme sea level events, ranging from Southern Ocean winter storms to destructive tropical cyclones revealed that including waves in the simulations raised surge levels between 10{\textendash}50 per cent, depending on local water depths and coastline orientation. To illustrate the robustness of the coupled wave-surge model we present results from Cyclone Yasi (2011), the largest and most intense storm to impact Queensland since 1913. The cyclone caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure costing $800 million over more than 500 km of coastline. A storm surge of 5.5 m was simulated in Cardwell with waves exceeding 12 m offshore and 6 m near the coast. Wave effects raised water levels by up to 35 per cent, highlighting the benefits of a coupled wave-surge model that includes wave setup effects.

}, author = {Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic and Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @article {bnh-2974, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {169}, year = {2016}, month = {05/09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We aim to study the dynamics, predictability and processes of severe weather, including fire weather. We seek also to improve forecasts of severe weather, and to better depict forecast uncertainty in these events, thereby facilitating better risk management and more cost-effective mitigation. Our research into ember transport in smoke plumes and the meteorology of the Blue Mountains bushfires of October 2013 has reached maturity, and journal articles have been written. We continue to develop our work on pyrocumulus clouds, and the east coast low event of April 2015, and have commenced a study of an eyewall replacement cycle in a tropical cyclone. These studies span a wide range of time and space scales and require a range of different methods.

Our ember transport work has confirmed that the mean travel distance of firebrands for a given fire intensity depends mainly on wind speed. However, the spread in the landing positions shifts from being substantially cross-wind at light winds, to dominantly along-wind at high winds. This spread is greatly increased by the turbulence in the plume, and the maximum spotting distance can be more than double the mean for this reason. These sophisticated and computationally intensive calculations can be used to inform the development of physically realistic and computationally cheap parameterizations of ember transport for use in fire models.

We have also used our plume modelling to study pyrocumulus clouds. Intense fire plumes in suitably moist environments can lead to cloud development, with the possibility of strong downbursts {\textendash} one of our simulations is shown on the cover of this report. We have analyzed the processes that lead to pyrocumulus, with special attention on the relative importance of moisture from two sources, the atmosphere and combustion, and shown that the latter is close to negligible. We aim to use the knowledge gained to develop a forecast tool for pyrocumulus formation.

Although the Blue Mountains fires of October 2013 persisted for several weeks, much of the spread occurred on the 17th. While this was expected to be a day of high fire risk, the extreme fire spread was not anticipated and the causes were unknown. Our high resolution simulations showed that the downward extension of high upper-level winds to the vicinity of the fire ground, caused by mountain wave activity, was a factor. In addition, the marked wind change on that day was associated with a dry slot, but the underlying cause of that dry slot seems to be different to previously documented cases.

East coast lows are intense low-pressure systems that form over the sea adjacent to the east coast of Australia, most commonly along the New South Wales coast. We continue our analysis of the event of 20-23 April 2015, using, for the first time, an ensemble of 24 simulations rather than just a single forecast. Collectively, these simulations accurately predict the position and intensity of the low, the strong winds and the rainfall. The differences between them give insight as to the forecast uncertainty, the overall envelope of areas at some risk, and those at highest risk. The ensemble also enables insight into the processes that lead to the rapid intensification of these systems. The risk these systems pose was further illustrated by the two events in June of 2016.

}, issn = {169}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and W. Thurston and Simon Ching and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-3101, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {228}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, issn = {228}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright} } @conference {bnh-2946, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most important natural disasters in Australia. The average annual cost of floods in the last 40 years has been estimated to amount to $377 million, with the 2010{\textendash}2011 Brisbane and south-east Queensland floods alone leading to $2.38 billion in economic damage and 35 confirmed deaths. Flood forecasting systems are the most important tools to limit this damage but are prone to a considerable degree of uncertainty.\ During the last decades, significant research focusing on the monitoring of the global water cycle through satellite remote sensing has been performed. The strength of remote sensing is the opportunity to provide information at large spatial scales including areas that are difficult or impossible to monitor using on-ground techniques. For these reasons it is believed that the use of remote sensing data can improve the quality of operational flood forecasts.\ Operational flood forecasting systems typically consist of a hydrologic model, which estimates the amount of water entering a river system, and a hydraulic model, which models the flow of water inside the river system. Remotely sensed soil moisture data is being used to improve the hydrologic model results (i.e. the modeled hydrograph into the river network), while remotely sensed water levels and/or flood extent data are being used to improve the hydraulic model results (i.e. the modeled water velocities, depths, and floodplain extents).\ The project focusses on two test sites, the Clarence River in New South Wales and the Condamine-Balonne Rriver in Queensland. Figure 1 shows an overview of these test sites.

}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-3417, title = {Improving the Impact and Implementation of Disaster Education: Programs for Children Through Theory-Based Evaluation}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {36}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {2120-2135}, chapter = {2120}, abstract = {

A main weakness in the evaluation of disaster education programs for children is evaluators{\textquoteright} propensity to judge program effectiveness based on changes in children{\textquoteright}s knowledge. Few studies have articulated an explicit program theory of how children{\textquoteright}s education would achieve desired outcomes and impacts related to disaster risk reduction in households and communities. This article describes the advantages of constructing program theory models for the purpose of evaluating disaster education programs for children. Following a review of some potential frameworks for program theory development, including the logic model, the program theory matrix, and the stage step model, the article provides working examples of these frameworks. The first example is the development of a program theory matrix used in an evaluation of ShakeOut, an earthquake drill practiced in two Washington State school districts. The model illustrates a theory of action; specifically, the effectiveness of school earthquake drills in preventing injuries and deaths during disasters. The second example is the development of a stage step model used for a process evaluation of\ What{\textquoteright}s the Plan Stan?, a voluntary teaching resource distributed to all New Zealand primary schools for curricular integration of disaster education. The model illustrates a theory of use; specifically, expanding the reach of disaster education for children through increased promotion of the resource. The process of developing the program theory models for the purpose of evaluation planning is discussed, as well as the advantages and shortcomings of the theory-based approaches.

}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12545}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12545/abstract}, author = {Vicki Johnson and Kevin Ronan and David Johnston and Robin Peace} } @article {bnh-3087, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {224}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe wind storms have typically shown that Australian houses built prior to the mid-1980s do not offer the same level of performance and protection during windstorms as houses constructed to contemporary building standards. Given that these older houses will represent the bulk of the housing stock for many decades, practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research will make a significant improvement to housing performance and to the economic and social well-being of the community.

Structural retrofitting details exist for some forms of legacy housing but the uptake of these details is limited. There is also evidence that retrofitting details are not being included into houses requiring major repairs following severe storm events, thus missing the ideal opportunity to improve resilience of the house and community. Hence, the issues of retrofitting legacy housing, including feasibility and hindrances on take-up, etc., must be analysed.

The primary objective of this research is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia.\  These evidence-based strategies will be (a) tailored to aid policy formulation and decision making in government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the building community for retrofitting typical at-risk houses in Australian communities. Specific task items include:

{\textbullet} \  Categorise residential structures into types based on building features that influence windstorm vulnerability using Geoscience Australia and CTS survey data. From these, a suite will be selected to represent those contributing most to windstorm risk

{\textbullet} \  Involve end-users and stakeholders (i.e. homeowners, builders, regulators, insurers) to assess amendments and provide feedback on practicality and aesthetics of potential upgrading methods for a range of buildings. Cost effective strategies will be developed for key house types

{\textbullet} \  Vulnerability models will be developed for each retrofit strategy using survey data, the authors{\textquoteright} existing vulnerability models, and the NEXIS database of Australian housing characteristics. Case studies will be used to evaluate effectiveness of proposed retrofit solutions in risk reduction. Economic assessment using the same case studies will be used to promote uptake of practical retrofit options.

}, issn = {224}, author = {Daniel Smith and David Henderson and John Ginger and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-3085, title = {Improving volunteer recruitment and retention: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {221}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This financial year, 2015-2016, has been a busy time for our team. Great progress was made across all three themes of the research project.

The Valuing Volunteers theme has concluded a very difficult and important component of the overall aims of this project by collecting data through the distribution of surveys to volunteers in the NSW SES and SAFECOM. A good response rate was received with the NSW SES through the strong efforts of Bill Calcutt who tirelessly marketed the research to all stakeholders. This research theme is just about to enter its final stage which will explore the issue of {\textquoteleft}values{\textquoteright} more deeply using Participatory Action Research.

The IRE program is undergoing final testing and evaluation, in total we have had six end-users directly participating in the program {\textendash} including: EMV, NSW SES, QLD SES, RFS NSW, RFS QLD, VIC SES. The research phase will conclude later this year, and the team will transition to an utilisation mode in cooperation with the CRC and end-users. The program has been consistently well-received by participants and end-users.

The third theme looks at the important issue of diversity and inclusion in emergency services, which are notoriously deficient in creating and maintaining inclusive cultures. The research will utilise an intervention approach to create and evaluate a process for diversity inclusion that is optimum for the emergency services environment, particularly with volunteers.

All three themes have designed pathways towards utilisation. All themes also benefit from very enthusiastic and create doctoral students who are basing their theses on elements of the work being carried out.

}, issn = {221}, author = {Michael Jones} } @article {bnh-3084, title = {Increasing residents{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {218}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project addresses the following problem statements: 1) what measures can best be used to capture individuals{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards?, 2) how effective are traditional strategies, such as community engagement groups vs. brochures vs. websites vs. advertising in increasing preparedness and planning by residents of hazard prone areas?, and 3) what are some of the key barriers and motivators for residents{\textquoteright} engagement with disaster resilience building activities, and how can strategies be improved to increase preparedness for natural hazards? All problem statements are being addressed within the context of bushfires and floods.

Over the past 12 months, this project has undertaken the following:

To address Problem Statement 3, we developed and conducted a large survey study amongst residents of flood prone areas, with data collection initiated in September 2015.\ Unfortunately, this study had to be abandoned due to an exceptionally low response rate at Wave 1 (September 2015). Potential reasons for the low response rate have been presented in a report5.

In response to the low response rate of the September 2015 study, a revised approach to address Problem Statement 3 was developed and presented to end-users in a teleconference in November 2015. The outline for this new study was presented in more detail at the Research Advisory Forum in Hobart. This study will examine the role of perceived community culture in motivating residents to engage with resilience building initiatives and preparedness activities. Data collection for this study is planned to commence in September {\textendash} December 2016.

In addition to the above, this year saw the publication of three project related papers in high quality peer-reviewed journals: one on the role of people{\textquoteright}s expectations and values in their intended response to bushfires6, one on the role of indecisiveness and anxiety in preparing for bushfires7, and one on the role of constructive and unconstructive worry in preparing for bushfires7.

Finally, discussions have been initiated with end-users around the potential development of an all hazards household preparedness tool, similar to the bushfire household preparedness tool that was developed under the old Bushfire CRC. This tool would be developed in a utilisation stage (i.e., not included in current project).

}, issn = {218}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero} } @article {bnh-3100, title = {Institutional maps of risk ownership for strategic decision making}, number = {233}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The purpose of this report is to develop institutional maps of risk ownership in the Australian context that will provide an insight into the current balance of ownership delegations. These maps address risk ownership relating to the strategic management of natural hazard risk for planning, preparedness and recovery (PPR). They do not cover the response component of natural hazard risk management (see Figure 1), which is largely tactical and command and control-based, rather than strategic.

Strategic management includes mitigation incorporated into planning and preparation designed to reduce the impacts of natural hazard risks. Resilience is also included as a key contributor to recovery and is seen as any set of actions that do not alter the risk itself, instead influencing exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability.\ 

}, issn = {233}, author = {Celeste Young and Symons, J and Roger Jones} } @conference {bnh-2947, title = {Integrated economic assessment of flood management options for Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

cent of the overall cost of Australian natural disasters is the consequence of flooding and this, on average, costs approximately $600 million per annum (Gentle et Bureau of Transport Economics, 2001; Productivity Commission 2015). These average figures do not reflect the severity of the impact that some floods can cause. For example, the magnitude and extent of the recent (2011) Queensland floods was vast, with an overall cost estimates above $6.8 billion.


There is a growing recognition that Australia{\textquoteright}s disaster funding arrangements are not efficient and do not create the right incentives for managing risks (Productivity Commission 2015). There is underinvestment in disaster mitigation and overinvestment in post-disaster interventions. Across Australia, flood maps have become a major mitigation strategy. Other mitigation strategies include structural solutions such as levees, dams, diversion channels, floodgates, and detention basins as well as non-structural solutions such as early warning and evacuation systems and community education programs. The structural solutions are typically capital intensive and costly. On the other hand, the assessment of flood mitigation benefits generally tends to be partial and focused on tangible and direct benefits. As a result, investment decisions can be suboptimal.\ For optimal and equitable investment in mitigation, it is important to understand the full range of costs and benefits and also how these costs and benefits are distributed among different segments of the community. Therefore, it is important that cost and benefit assessment methods depict an adequate picture of the costs and benefits of possible risk mitigation measures. Otherwise, even simple option evaluation procedures such as cost-benefit analysis are not precise. A panel of experts convened under the European Union{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}Costs of Natural Hazards{\textquoteright} (CONHAZ) project identified key areas for improvement in cost/benefit assessment and these include the need for more focus on non-structural measures, and indirect and intangible costs (Meyer et al. 2013). Intangible values, normally excluded from benefit cost analysis, can be significant or even the most dominant set of values in some cases.


The purpose of this presentation is to address the shortcoming in relation to intangible values in the context of flood mitigation option analysis for the Brown Hill and Keswick catchments in Adelaide. The catchments include both rural and urban areas and involve local government councils for Adelaide, Burnside, Mitcham, Unley and West Torrens. This analysis focuses on a set of flood mitigation options that are currently under consideration following a public consultation. Previous analysis done on these options suggests that the benefit-cost ratios appear unfavourable. However, the analysis was done without the inclusion of intangible values. In this presentation we argue why intangible values should be included and provide estimates that show how our understanding of the costs and benefits of mitigation options would change with the inclusion of intangible values to account for the health, environmental and social impacts of floods. Intangible values relevant in the context of natural hazards in general are shown in Table 1.

}, author = {Morteza Chalak and Veronique Florec and Atakelty Hailu and Fiona L Gibson and David J Pannell} } @inbook {bnh-4193, title = {The International Law of Wildfires}, booktitle = {Research Handbook on Disasters and International Law}, year = {2016}, publisher = {Edward Elgar}, organization = {Edward Elgar}, chapter = {The International Law of Wildfires}, abstract = {

International law{\textquoteright}s role in governing disasters is undergoing a formative period in its development and reach, in parallel with concerted efforts by the international community to respond more effectively to the increasing number and intensity of disasters across the world. This Research Handbook examines a broad range of legal regimes directly and indirectly relevant to disaster prevention, mitigation and reconstruction across a spectrum of natural and manmade disasters, including armed conflict.

The editors take a broad, encompassing approach to the concept of disaster, concluding that a new corpus of international disaster law may be emerging. Key contributions interweave a number of important themes from an international law perspective across a wide range of discrete topics as diverse as water, food and energy security, dispute settlement, protection of vulnerable groups, cyber terrorism, international criminal law, climate change migration and international economics and trade law. This comprehensive study makes an important contribution to international law scholarship governing disasters, which in the past has largely focused on disaster response and relief law.

The different perspectives incorporated in this Research Handbook are likely to appeal not only to students and academics, but equally to governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental actors drawn across the crisis, conflict and disaster management sectors.

}, isbn = {978 1 78471 739 1}, url = {http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/research-handbook-on-disasters-and-international-law}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-3437, title = {Into the firing line: civilian ingress during the 2013 {\textquotedblleft}Red October{\textquotedblright} bushfires, Australia}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {80}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, pages = {521-538}, chapter = {521}, abstract = {

A major issue for bushfire management arises when residents decide to leave a safe area and enter the fire zone to rescue or defend their property, pets, loved ones or other assets. Here, we use statistical and narrative analyses of data from an online survey and semi-structured interviews with residents affected by the 2013 {\textquotedblleft}Red October{\textquotedblright} bushfires in New South Wales, Australia. The survey results revealed that of the 58\ \% of respondents who were not at home at the time the threat became apparent, 65\ \% indicated that they attempted to get home prior to the arrival of the fire front. In doing so, many endangered themselves, their family, friends and emergency services personnel. This paper discusses the shortcomings of bushfire survival plans and official risk communication, which do not cater well for household units that are divided or unattended when a bushfire starts. Findings suggest that to enhance bushfire safety and preparedness, emergency managers should acknowledge and speak more directly to the specific constraints to action for particular social groups at the wildland{\textendash}urban interface, including families with school-age children, commuters and absentee landholders.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-015-1982-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1982-5}, author = {Wilkinson, Carrie and Eriksen, Christine and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5101, title = {Investigating a wind tunnel method for determining wind-induced loads on roofing tiles}, journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics}, volume = {155}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {47-59}, chapter = {47}, abstract = {

Current design loads for roofing tile systems in the U.S. are determined based on a standardized wind tunnel testing method developed in the 1990s to examine wind-induced pressures on the upper and lower surfaces of the tile. The method neglects several key parameters that are well known to affect wind loading (e.g. wind angle, specimen shape, etc.). The research objective of this study is to investigate this method by [1] characterizing wind-induced surface pressure distributions on field tiles for varying wind angles of attack and [2] measuring load path intensity through mechanically fastened tile attachments. Surface pressure distributions were measured on three full-size, rapid prototyped roofing tile models with 256 pressure taps immersed in wind flows. The models are geometrically identical to low-, medium- and high-profile concrete roofing tiles that are widely used in high wind areas. Additionally, their real counterparts were instrumented with load cells to measure reaction forces at mechanical fasteners. The results highlight areas of the method that are lacking in specificity and shows that low-resolution pressure measurement may yield conservative parameters for low- and medium-profile tiles but is potentially not conservative for asymmetric (s-shaped) high-profile tiles.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2016.05.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610516302847}, author = {Daniel Smith and Forrest J. Masters and Arindam G. Chowdhury} } @article {bnh-2659, title = {Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {72}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, chapter = {16}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or {\textquoteleft}bushfires{\textquoteright} in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between {\textquoteleft}more science{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}less uncertainty,{\textquoteright} this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation{\textemdash}such as next generation modelling{\textemdash}raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718515302347}, author = {Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir and Tara K. McGee} } @article {bnh-2765, title = {Knowledge for life: how local knowledge is helping communities prepare}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, abstract = {

There are many ways for a community to reduce its risk to the effects of hazards and disasters. Science and research play an important role, but for many remote and Indigenous communities, this cannot provide all of the solutions. Local knowledge can be pivotal to their risk reduction. To this end, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC hosted a panel of speakers at the Australasian Natural Hazards Management conference in Perth as part of the 2015 International Day for Disaster Reduction.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-01-18}, author = {Freya Jones} } @conference {bnh-4112, title = {Large-eddy simulations of pyro-convection and its sensitivity to mositure}, booktitle = {5th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, publisher = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, organization = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Intense heating of air in the vicinity of a bushfire leads to deep ascent. If this ascent is deep enough to lift air above the lifting condensation level, cumulus or cumulonimbus clouds form in a process known as moist pyro-convection. There is abundant anecdotal evidence to suggest that pyro-convective clouds may have a significant impact on fire behaviour by (i) amplifying burn and spread rates (Fromm et al., 2012); (ii) enhancing spotting through plume intensification (Koo et al., 2010; Thurston et al., 2015); and (iii) igniting new fires via pyrocumulonimbus lightning, noting that pyrocumulonimbus lightning conditions favour hotter and longer-lived lightning strikes (Rudlosky and Fuelberg, 2011). Pyro-convective clouds are also responsible for the transport of smoke and other aerosols into the stratosphere, resulting in hemisphere-scale smoke transport and substantial climate impacts (Fromm et al., 2010). Therefore a knowledge of the processes that lead to the generation of moist pyro-convection is important for understanding and predicting fire behaviour, as well as the potential climatic influences of large fires. In this study we use large-eddy simulations to investigate the potential for the generation of moist pyro-convection by bushfire plumes. Firstly we perform simulations over a range of fire intensities and environmental moisture levels. Secondly we repeat a subset of these simulations with differing amounts of moisture released by the fire in order to assess the relative roles of environmental moisture and fire-derived moisture in the formation of pyro-convective clouds.

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-3168, title = {Literature review on community resilience in remote north Australia}, number = {161}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The purpose of this literature review is to provide an overview of current research on community\ resilience in relation to natural hazards. It examines the concepts of vulnerability and resilience in the\ north Australian context and, in particular, in remote Indigenous communities. In remote northern\ Australia there are particular issues that must be considered for preparing for, responding to, and\ recovering from natural hazards. Desert Knowledge Australia, for instance, highlights {\textquoteleft}the difficulties\ faced by governments in providing basic community services and infrastructure, the lack of any real\ local authority over decision making or allocation of resources, the severe stress on Indigenous culture\ and societal structures, and the risk of collapsing fragile ecosystems in the context of outmoded land\ management regimes{\textquoteright} (Desert Knowledge Australia 2009, p.3). In contrast, many highlight the\ strength and resilience of remote Indigenous communities, despite the hardships produced by\ colonisation, failed policies and poor governance. This is exemplified by many successful practical\ projects in land and sea management, such as the West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement Project (Bessen\ Consulting Services \& NAILSMA 2009, Garnett \& Sithole 2007). This literature review considers what\ community resilience means in the context of remote Indigenous communities in northern Australia\ and how this concept might relate to natural disaster preparedness, mitigation, response and\ recovery.

}, issn = {161}, author = {Christine Michael and Matalena Tofa and Glenn James} } @article {bnh-3822, title = {Locating the intangible: integrating a sense of place into cost estimation of natural disasters}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {77}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, abstract = {

The field of disaster loss assessment attempts to provide comprehensive estimates of the cost of disasters. Assessment of intangibles remains a major weakness. Existing costing frameworks have acknowledged losses to cultural {\textendash} as distinct from economic, social, human or environmental {\textendash} capital. However, the inclusion of cultural line items has usually been conducted in an\ ad hoc\ and under-theorised way, with little empirical evidence. This paper presents the possibility of using\ cultural capital\ itself as an overarching category for specifically cultural losses. It further focuses on the specific concept of\ sense of place\ as one area that has been neglected even in frameworks that consider other kinds of intangibles, and argues, on both theoretical and pragmatic grounds, that a collective or shared sense of place can be subsumed within cultural capital loss estimates. Christchurch provides an illustration of the idea as relevant and comparable empirical material is available from before and since the 2011 earthquake.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.geoforum.2016.09.018}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718515302323}, author = {Magee, L. and John Handmer and Timothy Neale and Ladds, M.} } @conference {bnh-4113, title = {Long-range spotting by bushfire plumes: The effects of plume dynamics and turbulence on firebrand trajectory}, booktitle = {5th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, publisher = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, organization = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Spotting is a hazardous phenomenon that leads to unpredictable fire behaviour and accelerated fire spread. Spot fires occur when embers are launched by bushfire plumes into the background wind, which then carries the embers a significant distance from the fire front. If the embers land in a suitable fuel bed and are still smouldering a spot fire may be ignited. The magnitude of the problem is illustrated by Cruz et al. (2012), who provide evidence of long-range spotting in excess of 30 km during the Black Saturday bushfires of February 2009. Therefore a better understanding of the processes that contribute to long-range spotting is essential for the prediction of fire spread. In this paper we aim to assess the contribution of turbulent plume dynamics to the process of long-range spotting.

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-3082, title = {Managing Animals in Disasters - improving preparedness, response and resilience through organisational collaboration: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {217}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The first year of the MAiD project comprised an extensive scoping phase. We identified the challenges and needs of responders and stakeholders, we reviewed plans, policies, and initiatives, and identified a number of priority areas with our project end-users and other stakeholders.

In the second year of the project we transitioned to a series of four field work studies. The first two studies are looking at the experiences of people and animals in recent Australian disaster events. The first is focussed on informal volunteers who converge to help animals and the issues this can cause for communication and integration in the formal emergency management system and the effective utilisation of community skills and capacity. The second is focussed on the experiences of animal owners impacted by two recent bushfires in South Australia. These two studies will document problems, issues, and positive outcomes and, with end user support, will hopefully influence engagement, guidance, and practice.
The remaining, third and fourth, field studies are more ambitious. These are looking to develop methodologies and processes.

The third study is developing human-animal risk mapping in bushfire prone areas in Tasmania; combining animal ownership distributions and owners{\textquoteright} behavioural intentions for themselves and their animals. This is a multi-stakeholder study intended to assist planning and resource allocation decision-making for emergency services, primary industries, local councils, and police. If the methodology is successful it should be applicable to all hazards.

The fourth study is supporting the development of an Animal Ready Community (ARC) in the Blue Mountains in New South Wales. This study is facilitating, supporting, and evaluating the impacts of a community-led project to raise awareness of, and engagement in, animal-related emergency preparedness and planning. If successful this could provide a blueprint for similar ARCs to be set up in other interested communities.

In addition to our four field studies we also have PhD research being conducted in South Australia investigating animal owner-responder interactions during bushfires, seeking to understand owner decision-making and assist responders in supporting animal owners before, during, and after disaster events.

}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-3048, title = {Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {216}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazard disasters are systemic, potentially resulting in catastrophic impacts capable of breaching geographic, institutional, functional and operational thresholds. Such impacts often interact with other risks, causing knock-on effects, or risk contagion.

While some locations can successfully implement strategic planning for a limited number of natural hazard risks, at regional and government scales, a multi-hazard, multi-value approach needs to be taken. This requires a significant advance in how systemic risk is understood at the institutional level by governments, industry and the community. This is quite different to conventional understandings based on the cause-and-effect nature of individual hazards. Without such advances, affected systems will remain vulnerable to unpredictable combinations of events, and unowned and shared risks are likely to be poorly defined.

The focus of the project in the past twelve months has been in:

The workshops{\textquoteright} purpose was to explore, through a series of structured scenario exercises, how values and risk ownership are currently understood. Feedback was also sought for the newly-developed draft Values at Risk Maps to gauge the appetite for further development.

}, issn = {216}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Symons, J} } @article {bnh-3094, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {227}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, Project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarizes the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2015/2016.

The project team has made considerable progress this financial year and has generated a number of nationwide products. More specifically this financial year we have:

1)\ \ \  developed and tested the {\textquotedblleft}Bushfire Information System{\textquotedblright} with potential for operational prediction of live fuel moisture content and fire occurrence in Australia;

2)\ \ \  analyzed the suitability of near-surface soil moisture data to improve the McArthur forest fire danger index;

3)\ \ \  tested a forest carbon uptake estimation model constrained with remote sensing data at 25 m to 5 km resolution and evaluated against field data; and

4)\ \ \  Developed a predictive model for estimating forest surface fuel load with LiDAR data.

We have also completed some activities initialized during the previous financial year including:

1)\ \ \  the development and testing of a new software tool to automatically derive detailed vegetation structure information from ground-based LiDAR; and

2)\ \ \  testing an on-ground network of curing/FMC sensors.

We have maintained an effective and engaging relationship with project end users. The most intensive interactions have been with ACT Parks and Conservation, with whom the team collaborates closely, including in an operational setting. However, now that we have generated a number of nationwide products, more end users are identifying how they can practically engage in the research. This has led to a large number of follow-up projects that have been requested and will be addressed as much as possible over the next years, contingent on future project funding.

Additionally we:

1)\ \ \  published 1 journal manuscript with another 6 currently in review and one invited book chapter in preparation, 10 conference abstracts, one conference paper and 3 milestone reports;

2)\ \ \  hosted three international exchange visits and were approached by more than 15 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and

3)\ \ \  in consultation with the end users, identified a subset of key outputs that have the highest utilisation potential, and that will be the focus of our work program in the future.

}, issn = {227}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6627, title = {Measuring fire-induced change in the understorey of an Australian dry sclerophyll forest using remote sensing}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This research investigates the use of remote sensing technologies for measuring and mapping the changes in the forest understorey in response to prescribed burning. Remote sensing has been used extensively to map the burn areas in fire-affected landscapes, but less work has been done focussing on beneath the canopy. Sub-canopy vegetation layers are important for habitat and for understanding the fuel hazards they may pose to the risk of wildfire. Accordingly, instruments and approaches must be able to perform in both pre- and post-burn environments, and be able to provide meaningful measures of change.

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and frequency, and in response prescribed burning is used to mitigate threats posed by them. Quantifying post-fire effects is important for burn severity, ecosystem recovery and post-fire hazard assessments. This information will allow land managers and scientists to understand fires in their environmental, economic and social contexts and help formulate responses and policies accordingly. However, measures of fire effects and fuel hazards which are done via visual assessments are known to be subjective and inconsistent between assessors and over time. What is needed is an improvement in the reporting procedures around quantification of fire effects which are both repeatable and quantifiable.

In this research two remote sensing technologies were used to measure, map and track changes in the understorey of an Australian dry sclerophyll forest. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) was used to derive vegetation structure variables and HSR (HyperSpectral Radiometry) was used to derive vegetation physiological variables. The study site was located in St. Andrews, Victoria, Australia within which a control plot and three fire treatment plots were set-up and monitored over a two year period, before and after a prescribed fire event conducted in autumn 2012. The datasets collected were used for statistical and spatial analysis of changes in understorey vegetation, and to assess those metrics best suited for describing different vegetation responses to fire effects.

The first part of this research examined the potential of TLS to detect fire-induced change in the forest understorey. From TLS point clouds a total of 18 metrics were extracted which were tested against accuracy and reliability criteria. Three metrics; mean AGHchange (Above Ground Height), median AGHchange and point countchange were shortlisted. To report different post-fire changes in burnt understorey, mean AGHchange metric was used. This metric was able to report fire effects such as total burn area, measures of patchiness, spatial distribution of burnt and unburnt areas, fuel accumulation and prescribed burn efficiency across various temporal scales.

The second part of this research analysed hyperspectral data of the near-surface (grass) and surface fuel layer (litter). Spectral changes in the near-surface fuel layer were observed in Visible (550nm), Near-Infrared (680-750nm) and Middle Infrared (970nm, 1220nm, 1550nm) domains of the electromagnetic spectrum. For the surface fuel layer (litter) changes were observed in the Middle Infrared domain (1140nm, 1225nm and 1700nm). The greatest difference from pre-burn levels for both the fuel layers occurred within the first two weeks post-burn. Spectral indices corresponding to the above determined broad spectral bands were tested to ascertain which were best at characterising burnt from unburnt targets whilst also tracking recovery. Indices such as NDVI, NBR and D720 were found to be the most suitable for near-surface fuel layer whilst D1230 for surface fuel layer.

A preliminary investigation into comparing the change detected by the two remote sensing technologies suggested that physiological change detected by HSR, recorded vegetation recovery as early as six weeks post-burn. Structural change detected by TLS even after two years post-burn was recorded as being close to two weeks post-burn levels. This finding matched well with visual assessments of structural measures (plant cover and height).

The findings of this study suggest that improvements in reporting procedures around quantification of fire effects can be achieved using TLS and HSR technology. TLS-derived structural metric, mean AGHchange can accurately detect quantified measures of fire-induced change in forest understorey that can be validated with field assessments. It can also report post-fire effects at various temporal scales including area burnt, burn patchiness, fuel load accumulation and prescribed burn efficiency. Spectral indices such as NDVI, NBR and D720 were able to accurately detect both vegetation loss and recovery. There is merit in further investigating TLS and HSR in conjunction for quantified and robust reporting of fire effects. The change detected by these technologies can be linked to inform both vegetation recovery and fuel accumulation.

}, keywords = {burn severity, fuel hazard, post-fire effects, prescribed burns, remote sensing}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:161758}, author = {Vaibhav Gupta} } @conference {bnh-4114, title = {Mesoscale features related to the Blue Mountains fires of 17 October 2013 revealed by high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelling}, booktitle = {5th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, publisher = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, organization = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, address = {Melbourne}, author = {Simon Ching and Robert Fawcett and W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5077, title = {Minimum loading requirements for areas of low seismicity}, journal = {Earthquakes and Structures}, volume = {11}, year = {2016}, pages = {539-561}, chapter = {539}, abstract = {

The rate of occurrence of intraplate earthquake events has been surveyed around the globe to ascertain the average level of intraplate seismic activities on land. Elastic response spectra corresponding to various levels of averaged (uniform) seismicity for a return period of 2475 years have then been derived along with modifying factors that can be used to infer ground motion and spectral response parameters for other return period values. Estimates derived from the assumption of uniform seismicity are intended to identify the minimum level of design seismic hazard in intraplate regions. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment presented in the paper involved the use of ground motion models that have been developed for regions of different tectonic and crustal classifications. The proposed minimum earthquake loading model is illustrated by the case study of Peninsular Malaysia which has been identified with a minimum effective peak ground acceleration (EPGA) of 0.1 g for a return period of 2475 years, or 0.07 g for a notional return period of 475 years.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.12989/eas.2016.11.4.539}, url = {http://koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=TPTPJW_2016_v11n4_539}, author = {Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Elisa Lumantarna and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-3033, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {174}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Australian people, businesses and environment are all vulnerable to wildfires, floods and other natural hazards. Deloitte Access Economics (2016) estimate the 2015 total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia exceeded $9 billion. Some examples of recent extreme events are the 2015 West Australia Esperance bushfire, the 2015 South Australia Pinery bushfire, the 2009 Victoria Black Saturday bushfires, the Millennium drought spanning from 1998 to 2009 and the summer 2010/2011 floods in Eastern Australia. A recent United Kingdom Meteorological Office report concludes that investment in weather services provides around a tenfold return (Gray 2015).

Accurate soil moisture information is critical for the management and warning of fires, floods and landslips and this project addresses fundamental limitations in our ability to prepare for these events. Fire ignition, intensity and spread rate are strongly influenced by soil moisture content. Knowledge of soil moisture is essential for the accurate prediction of wildfire incidence and the occurrence of large destructive fires corresponds to very large soil moisture deficit values. Soil moisture also strongly influences temperatures and heatwave development by controlling the partitioning of net surface radiation into sensible, latent and ground heat fluxes. Rainfall forecasts are crucial for many applications and many studies suggest that soil moisture can significantly influence rainfall.

Currently soil moisture, for fire danger prediction, is estimated using very crude models developed in the 1960s that oversimplify the calculation of evapotranspiration and runoff leading to significant errors. These crude models do not take into account different vegetation properties, soil types, terrain and many other factors. They are poor drivers of the models used by fire agencies, and the Bureau of Meteorology to predict dangerous fire conditions as the science is outdated and has been verified as not effective (Dharssi and Vinodkumar 2015).

Soil moisture can have very high spatial variability due to the very high spatial variability of vegetation properties, soil textures, orography and rainfall. Therefore, it is highly desirable to analyse soil moisture at the highest possible spatial resolution. Many applications, such as fire danger warnings, agriculture and weather forecasting, require soil moisture information at a spatial resolution of 5 km or better. A state of the art, high resolution soil moisture information system is under development with daily updating and a spatial resolution of 5 km. The system provides information on 4 soil layers. The top layer is 10 cm thick and the total thickness of the soil column is 3 m. Verification against ground based soil moisture observations and a case study show that this prototype system is significantly more skillful than the over-simplified models currently used operationally. This new system will significantly improve Australia{\textquoteright}s ability to manage multiple hazard types and create a more resilient community.

}, issn = {174}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar} } @conference {bnh-3949, title = {Modelling non-ductile reinforced concrete columns}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2016 Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, publisher = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, organization = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, address = {Melbourne}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Pathmanathan Rajeev and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-2758, title = {Motorist behaviour during the 2015 Shoalhaven floods}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {
People entering floodwaters by vehicle constitutes a major cause of flood fatalities in Australia and globally. Over the 20 years to 2014, 81 people have died attempting to drive through floodwaters. These comprise 43 per cent of all flood fatalities for this period. Despite Australian emergency services agencies mounting behavioural change campaigns and urging people not to enter floodwater, the behaviour persists. This paper draws on fieldwork carried out during flooding in the Shoalhaven region of NSW, Australia, in August 2015 to examine the effectiveness of the current combination of warnings, education and road signage to stop motorists entering floodwater. The fieldwork identified that 84 per cent of drivers at a monitored site, notably males and four-wheel-drive (4WD) vehicles, dismissed road closure signs and drove into floodwater. It is plain that further work is needed to reduce the frequency of motorists entering floodwater. This requires the development of a holistic approach including education, regulation and engineering measures.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-02-06}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Chas Keys} } @article {bnh-5082, title = {A moveable beast: subjective influence of human-animal relationships on risk perception and risk behaviour during bushfire threat}, journal = {The Qualitative Report}, volume = {21}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, pages = {1881-1903}, chapter = {1881}, abstract = {

This article examines how human-animal connections influence risk perception and behaviour in companion animal guardians exposed to bushfire threat in Australia. Although the objective role of psychological bonds with companion animals is well accepted by researchers, subjective interpretations of these bonds by animal guardians are relatively underexamined in this context. We argue that the ways in which connections with pets and other animals are represented influences different forms of safety-risk perception and behaviour when managing animals{\textquoteright} safety in the face of disaster threat. Thematic analysis of 21 semi-structured interviews with South Australian residents in bushfire-affected areas supported the role of the human-animal bond in shaping risk perception, and influencing engagement in risk-behaviour. Influential factors included animals{\textquoteright} {\textquotedblleft}life value,{\textquotedblright} {\textquotedblleft}relative versus absolute{\textquotedblright} risk framing, the {\textquotedblleft}constellation of bonds,{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}action paralysis{\textquotedblright} when facing threat. Implications for future research in decision-making and risk propensities of animal guardians facing disaster threat alongside their pets are then discussed.

}, url = {https://nsuworks.nova.edu/tqr/vol21/iss10/9}, author = {Trigg, Josh and Kirrilly Thompson and Bradley P Smith and Bennett, Pauleen} } @article {bnh-2925, title = {Natural hazard mitigation decision support system: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {178}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Decision support systems (DSS) that contain integrate models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component of robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use, economics and climate. Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning for natural disaster risk reduction is being developed through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.\ The project consists of implementing an iterative development and use cycle across three different case studies. The development aspect of this cycle focuses on creating a generic framework for the integration of models to answer policy relevant questions, in this case for improved understanding and reduction of disaster risk. The use process tailors this framework to each of three case study regions, Greater Adelaide, Greater \& Peri-Urban Melbourne and Tasmania.

The focus of 2015-2016 has been on the use cycle for Greater Adelaide, with a first prototype of the software application presented to end-users and five exploratory scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively developed that capture policy-relevant uncertainties in the development of Greater Adelaide. The DSS application in its first iteration provides annual expected losses from coastal inundation, riverine flooding, bushfire and earthquake. The entire use process has been driven by several stages of stakeholder engagement involving SA{\textquoteright}s State Mitigation Advisory Group.\ Work has also begun on the Greater \& Peri-urban Melbourne case study with the first stage of stakeholder engagement occurring on the 21st {\textendash} 23rd October 2015. This involved questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and a workshop to collect information on spatial region, hazards, drivers for change, risk reduction options and indicators of interest. Model development followed focussing initially on the central land use model, and data have also been collected for hazard modelling. Further stakeholder work will occur in the second half of this year including presentation of a first iteration of the software, and its integrated use process of exploratory scenario development.\ The first stage of stakeholder engagement for the Tasmania case study occurred on 4th {\textendash} 6th November 2015. Similar information was collected regarding inputs to the system{\textquoteright}s development. The spatial region considered initially excluded the World Heritage and National Park sites on the South West of the island, but this has changed due to fire events over summer 2015/16. Due to this change in scope the DSS development has been delayed, with a first iteration of the software now planned to be completed in 2017.
Other work has also involved the development of specific hazard models by project team members to be integrated within the systems for each of the case studies. These include a riverine flood and coastal inundation model, and a bushfire risk assessment model co-developed with SA{\textquoteright}s Department of Environment, Water \& Natural Resources (DEWNR).

}, issn = {178}, author = {Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Charles Newland} } @article {bnh-3040, title = {Natural hazards exposure information framework: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {186}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) describes as {\textquotedblleft}what is at risk{\textquotedblright} that includes people, buildings, infrastructure, businesses, hazardous substances and primary industries. Exposure information comprises the details needed to support situational awareness at all levels of governance and in various phases of disaster management. There is plenty of fundamental data on assets exposed to natural hazards is available with many data custodians including ABS (Census), GA (NEXIS), ABR (Business Registry), NSW (EICU, ESSIL), QLD (redi-EXPOSURE), Melbourne City (CLUE), and Insurance portfolio in the sector.\  \ 

The available data has inconsistency in resolution, definitions, geography, and seamless features across administrative areas and access conditions of the exposure information for the end users. The current information provision capabilities have the lack of comprehensive exposure attributes, standards, centralised database, access infrastructure and inventory strategies.\ 

Extensive literature review and stakeholder consultations were conducted to identify comprehensive list of information requirements. The project has conducted an on-line survey with many data custodians who provide the exposure data to end users. Current exposure information capabilities are developed in isolation at national, state and local level or are industry specific.

The Natural Hazards Exposure Information Framework is to provide guidelines for the information system development in a nationally consistent way and provide access for diverse users. The annual report outlines the achievements of the project and its milestones. The project has completed built environment exposure information framework as a major milestone. The business exposure information framework is delayed and likely to be completed by September.

The framework presents the details of exposed assets to natural hazards as components, elements and attributes. The exposure components considered in the framework are buildings, people, businesses, transport sector, energy sector, communication sector, potable water, major industries, primary industries and waste management. The exposure elements outlined for each of the components as assets, usage and value categories. The elements are further outlines as standard set of data attributes required for researchers and decision makers. The level of details required for end users vary, therefore the framework categorises the information provision into three levels depends on user requirements such as policy \& planning; Response \& Recovery; and research analysis.

The framework outlines fundamental information category which is common for all exposure components that includes location; broad land use; insurance status and metadata.\ 

Built environment information framework considered the attributes of fixed assets and associated activities information to assess the vulnerability from the impact of bushfires, natural hazards and malevolent acts. The buildings exposure considered usage, type, structural system, number of storeys, size, age, attachments, replacement value and contents value. The infrastructure sectors considered in the framework includes transportation, energy, communication, urban water supply, waste management, hazardous substances and major industries. The primary industries exposure considered agriculture, fishing, forestry and mining sectors.

The Business and Economics Exposure Framework consists of business definitions, assets and activities information which are deemed necessary for assessment of business continuity, disruption, resilience and recovery indicators in disaster management.

Stakeholder engagement roadshow is progressing in most of the states. This is to present the framework for endorsement and draw better utilisation strategies. Reliability information framework is also being prepared to maintain the data provenance and enable the systems to provide advice on reliability of the information for a specific use. The situational awareness of the exposure is critical to manage the economy and community safety.

}, issn = {186}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-3284, title = {Natural hazards in Australia: droughts}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {139}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {37-54}, chapter = {37}, abstract = {

Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7}, author = {Anthony S. Kiem and Fiona Johnson and Seth Westra and Albert van Dijk and Jason P. Evans and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Alexandra Rouillard and Cameron Barr and Johnathon Tyler and Mark Thyer and Doerte Jakob and Fitsum Woldemeskel and Bellie Sivakumar and Raj Mehrotra} } @article {bnh-3282, title = {Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {139}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {85-99}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Geoffrey J. Cary and Paul Fox-Hughes and Mooney, Scott and Jason P. Evans and Fletcher, Michael-Shawn and Michael Fromm and Grierson, Pauline and Rick McRae and Baker, Patrick} } @article {bnh-3283, title = {Natural hazards in Australia: floods}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {139}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {21-35}, chapter = {21}, abstract = {

Floods are caused by a number of interacting factors, making it remarkably difficult to explain changes in flood hazard. This paper reviews the current understanding of historical trends and variability in flood hazard across Australia. Links between flood and rainfall trends cannot be made due to the influence of climate processes over a number of spatial and temporal scales as well as landscape changes that affect the catchment response. There are also still considerable uncertainties in future rainfall projections, particularly for sub-daily extreme rainfall events. This is in addition to the inherent uncertainty in hydrological modelling such as antecedent conditions and feedback mechanisms.

Research questions are posed based on the current state of knowledge. These include a need for high-resolution climate modelling studies and efforts in compiling and analysing databases of sub-daily rainfall and flood records. Finally there is a need to develop modelling frameworks that can deal with the interaction between climate processes at different spatio-temporal scales, so that historical flood trends can be better explained and future flood behaviour understood.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1689-y}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1689-y}, author = {Fiona Johnson and Christopher J. White and Albert van Dijk and Marie Ekstrom and Jason P. Evans and Doerte Jakob and Anthony S. Kiem and M. Leonard and Alexandra Rouillard and Seth Westra} } @conference {bnh-3560, title = {Non-ductile seismic performance of reinforced concrete walls in Australia}, booktitle = {Australasian Structural Engineering Conference 2016}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, address = {Brisbane, Australia}, abstract = {

Much of the Australian building stock comprises of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings that rely on RC walls or cores as their lateral load resisting system. Past research on the seismic behaviour of RC walls has primarily concentrated on highly reinforced and confined sections. However, there is a paucity of research focusing on lightly reinforced and unconfined sections that are commonly found in regions of low to moderate seismicity such as Australia. Moreover, some lightly reinforced concrete walls have been observed to perform poorly in recent earthquake events, with a single crack forming at the base within the plastic hinge region in contrast to the expected distributed cracks. This paper reports on an investigation into the seismic performance of rectangular walls with typical detailing and design parameters found in Australia. A simple model that can be used to predict the required amount of longitudinal reinforcement for the onset of secondary cracking is introduced. Finite element modelling results emphasise that a minimum amount of longitudinal reinforcement is required for secondary cracking to occur. Ultimately this will be useful for deriving a plastic hinge length that can be used for displacement capacity calculations of lightly reinforced walls.

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310728792_Non-ductile_seismic_performance_of_reinforced_concrete_walls_in_Australia}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @conference {bnh-2934, title = {Non-market valuation in the economic analysis of natural hazards}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

To achieve value for money from investments in management of natural hazards (including mitigation, emergency response and clean up) economists advocate the use of tools like Benefit: Cost Analysis (BCA) to evaluate actions or policies (e.g. Milne et al. 2015). Many governments worldwide encourage the use of BCA for policy evaluation. For example, according to its Best Practice Regulation Handbook, {\textquoteleft}The Australian Government is committed to the use of cost{\textendash}benefit analysis to assess regulatory proposals to encourage better decision making{\textquoteright} (Australian Government 2010, p. 61).


Some of the relevant benefits and costs related to natural hazard management are relatively difficult to quantify, particularly in financial-equivalent terms. There are a number of advantages from expressing non-financial impacts in financial-equivalent terms: to compare the benefits and costs of policy or management actions in order to evaluate whether they are worthwhile policies or actions; to rank alternative investments in terms of value for money; and to make rigorous business cases for investment.\ Economists have developed a range of techniques to do so, known as {\textquoteleft}non-market valuation{\textquoteright}, but they remain underutilized in the natural hazard sector. The first purpose of this presentation is to identify the methods available to quantify non-market values in financial-equivalent terms. Non-market valuation techniques use empirical evidence about human behaviour or statements in surveys to quantify preferences for the provision of a public good or service.

}, author = {Fiona L Gibson and David J Pannell and Abbie Rogers and Marit Kragt and Atakelty Hailu} } @article {bnh-4116, title = {Non-market valuation in the economic analysis of natural hazards}, number = {1604}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, institution = {School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Unviersity of Western Australia}, type = {Working Paper}, address = {Crawley}, abstract = {

Natural hazards have a wide range of impacts, including on factors that are normally unpriced because they are not bought and sold in markets. Key examples include impacts on human health, the environment, ecosystem services and other outcomes relevant to social welfare. Economists seek to quantify these impacts in financial-equivalent terms in order to be able to compare them with market impacts and include them in Benefit: Cost Analysis (BCA) of policies and strategies to mitigate risks. Estimating these so-called non-market values can be difficult. This paper reviews the methods available for doing so, presents a comprehensive list of the non-market values that might be affected by natural hazards and reviews the existing literature that estimates non-market values relevant to natural hazards. We find that there are few applications specifically in a natural hazard context. We conclude with a discussion on the limitations of non-market valuation in the natural hazard context.

}, issn = {1604}, url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/236941}, author = {Fiona L Gibson and David J Pannell and Peter Boxall and Michael Burton and Robert Johnston and Marit Kragt and Abbie Rogers and John Rolfe} } @article {bnh-3097, title = {Northern Australia bushfire and natural hazard training: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {230}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines progress in the North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project.\  The project is part of a program of action research projects based at Charles Darwin University entitled {\textquotedblleft}Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia{\textquotedblright}.\  This program includes both physical and social science research into natural and cultural processes that impact upon the vulnerability and resilience of remote north Australian communities.\ 

The Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia program has a strong focus of participatory action research to encourage and enhance existing nodes of capability and excellence.\  The most prominent of these for fire and emergency management are remote Aboriginal Ranger groups.\  These groups have grown substantially in the last decade and have built a solid base of capacity by ensuring skills, knowledge and qualifications in relevant fields.\  In contrast to the more widely reported {\textquoteleft}deficit{\textquoteright} model of remote communities, \ communities with Ranger groups are moving to develop the social infrastructure that underpins disaster resilience; employment, social networks and communication.

The North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project aims to provide a {\textquoteleft}next-generation{\textquoteright} training program that builds on these current assets in the north such as the ranger programs and leads to increasing levels of competence and confidence and in its turn, resilience. The project is a response to north Australian stakeholder concerns that existing training is inadequate for their needs.

The project was late to start, but has now completed 10 new training units and will ready for pilot delivery in 2016-17.\  In keeping with the participatory mode for the wider project in which the training project sits, ARPNet has been engaged to document critical local fire management knowledge and to facilitate workshops on traditional leadership as it relates to emergency management.

A key focus of the new training units is the development of a didactic approach to building an understanding of the differing world views about fire and emergency management and the ways these affect preparation and response, particularly to bushfires, but also other natural hazards. This is intended to build on existing knowledge of participants and lead to an understanding of the material rather than a more limited {\textquoteleft}knowledge{\textquoteright} of the subject matter. The incorporation of detailed local traditional knowledge regarding the management objectives and practices for different landscape units is crucial to instilling this deep understanding of fire and natural hazard management in a way that can be used effectively at a local level.

The project has made presentations to the Adelaide AFAC/BNHCRC conference, and the Research Advisory Forum in Hobart.

Four workshops involving Project team, experienced trainers and professionals working in the multitude of BNH related disciplines and Indigenous practitioners have been held in Darwin and other locations in the Top End. These have focused on deepening and fine tuning the content of particular units.

}, issn = {230}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-2764, title = {Notes from the Field: Managed by us mob: helping remote northern communities face natural hazards}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {

Deep in Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory, perched on a small hill above the banks of the often-flooded Roper River, lies the community of Ngukurr. When the rains come each wet season, the community is cut off by road and the crossing over the mighty river becomes impassable.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC researchers from the Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods at Charles Darwin University and the University of New England visited the Ngukurr community in June 2015 for a workshop with local representatives. They camped beside the lily-covered Yarriowarda billabong (Yellow Water in English).

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-02-11}, author = {Nathan Maddock} } @conference {bnh-2939, title = {Opportunities and challenges of citizen-led recovery in post-disaster settings}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

The rise of resilience thinking has seen a significant shift in responsibility for risk.\ Citizens are now expected to take greater responsibility for managing their own risks\ and are afforded more opportunities for participating in risk management\ processes. This shift is driven by recognition of the considerable knowledge and\ agency that exist among citizens, but also the diminished role of the state in service\ provision. This paper considers the complexities of a citizen-led, place-based\ recovery project initiated following the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in southeastern\ Australia. This innovative project aimed to provide practical assistance to\ people whose homes were destroyed by bushfire to enable them to begin the\ rebuilding process. A key strength of the project was that it was initiated and\ implemented by local people to meet specific local needs. As members of the\ affected community, project participants were able to draw on local knowledge,\ networks and resources to achieve their goals, and were highly responsive to\ changing local conditions. However, participants experienced significant difficulties\ in their interactions with official agencies and entanglements with bureaucratic\ processes and procedures. As local people, the strain of assisting affected people to\ rebuild and recover was also considerable. These findings reinforce the need to\ better assist and support community members who choose to participate in\ emergency and disaster management but are unfamiliar with bureaucratic\ processes and procedures, or the challenges of the post-disaster phase. It is also\ necessary to consider how to simplify processes and procedures to maximise\ community participation. Failure to do so may encourage people to circumvent\ formal processes, for better or worse.

}, author = {J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-3047, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {215}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This year we have made remarkable progress with collection and analysis of spatially explicit data in relation to fuel reduction burning. From this data, a number of reports have been produced. The intent has been to transform milestone reports into peer-reviewed publications to ensure that the research we are doing is robust enough to pass peer-review and that End Users can have confidence in our recommendations. In the past 12 months the research team has produced seven peer-reviewed publications and two final milestone reports and have presented at both international and national conferences.

The journals that we have published or intend to publish in have impact factors of 2.4 or greater and are rated in the top quartile for journals in the fields of Land Management, Forestry, Ecology, Fuels Technology or Chemistry.

Although we have had several successive End Users associated with the project we have worked hard to maintain contact with our industry partners and to keep them up to date with our research progress. The research team has established valuable links with operational staff, firstly, to access recently burnt sites and, secondly, to help End Users to understand how and why data is collected. A sampling protocol has been developed and the efficacy of our methods has been tested in the field.

Recent major fire events in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia and changes in government policy in Victoria related to risk-based fire management are creating need for new research into the effectiveness of fuel reduction burning. The expertise that we have in our project team and our knowledge of landscape-scale variation sees us well placed to embark upon new directions of research including the impact of risk-based fuel reduction strategies on vegetation, carbon pools and water resources.

}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-3426, title = {An optimization model for aggregation of prescribed burn units}, journal = {TOP}, volume = {24}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, pages = {180-195}, chapter = {180}, abstract = {

Fire is a natural component of many terrestrial ecosystems; however, uncontrolled intense wildfires can cause loss of human life and destruction of natural resources. Prescribed burning is a management activity undertaken for the purposes of both wildfire hazard reduction and the preservation of fire-adapted ecosystems. Achievement of prescribed burn targets is made difficult by operational constraints such as limited personnel, equipment and suitable weather for undertaking burning. Prescribed burn program implementation may benefit from efficiencies gained in undertaking larger burns. Here, we present a mixed-integer programming formulation for aggregation of prescribed burn units. The model minimizes the total prescribed burn perimeter requiring management, by aggregating existing {\textquoteleft}fundamental{\textquoteright} burn units into larger compact and contiguous units or {\textquoteleft}clusters{\textquoteright}. This problem is a special case of the {\textquoteleft}supervised regionalization{\textquoteright} or the {\textquoteleft}pp-regions problem{\textquoteright}. The model{\textquoteright}s functionality is demonstrated on a test landscape and a number of extensions and implementation issues are discussed.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11750-015-0383-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11750-015-0383-y}, author = {Minas, James P. and John Hearne} } @article {bnh-3086, title = {Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {220}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The traditional model of emergency volunteering in Australia is based on formal, accredited volunteers who are affiliated with emergency management organisations, and are mostly involved in response and recovery roles.

This form of volunteering is crucial and has many strengths. However, management models based solely on this form of volunteering exclude the potentially large number of people who are motivated to volunteer before, during and after emergencies in other, unaffiliated, less ongoing and/or more informal ways. Failing to plan for engagement with this wider range of emergency volunteers means that important opportunities for EMOs to help build community resilience.

At the same time, the landscape of volunteering is changing significantly. As a result, emergency managers can expect to engage with a much wider and more diverse range of volunteering that brings new opportunities but also risks.

Why is it important?

Other forms of volunteering that are {\textquoteleft}non-traditional{\textquoteright} for the emergency management sector are: 1) on the rise, 2) inevitable, and 3) have great potential for increasing the sector{\textquoteright}s workforce surge capacity and for building community resilience are missed.

The topic is a new concern for most agencies, and there is little published research. There is awareness, however, of the need to plan for non-traditional volunteers, to move away from ad hoc approaches, and to capitalise on non-traditional volunteering to a greater extent in the future.\  \ 

How is the project addressing it?

The Out of Uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering project supports the development of more inclusive strategies for volunteer engagement for the emergency management sector.

Key contributions from the project towards this goal include:

}, issn = {220}, author = {John Handmer and J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-5080, title = {Owning the future: risk ownership and strategic decision-making for natural hazards}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {
The introduction of resilience as a key policy direction for natural disaster, and the growing recognition by governments that they cannot sustain community expectations by {\textquoteright}owning{\textquoteright} the bulk of natural hazard risk, is driving change. Making natural disasters everyone{\textquoteright}s business is not a short-term proposition. It requires repositioning how we as a society view, interact with, and understand risk in both current and future contexts. Longer-term strategic thinking and clarity of risk ownership are crucial if this is to be achieved. This task is difficult because the risks associated with natural hazards are systemic, resulting in interactions between seemingly unrelated risks. This requires a shared understanding as to how these different areas of risk interact with a wide range of values over multiple time scales. How this understanding can be integrated into decision-making requires extensive collaboration. In many cases, risk ownership will be shared, which can make it a confusing and frustrating space for policy makers and practitioners alike.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-04-11}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-2763, title = {Perceptions of risk and connection to landscape}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {

The\ House, Home and Place: A Visual Mapping Tool Kit\ for fire and land managers uses stories to help explain why people want to live in fire-prone communities. It helps illustrate some of the values and beliefs that shape their connections to home and place.\ The toolkit is based on the research of Professor Ruth Beilin and Dr Karen Reid of the University of Melbourne from their {\textquoteleft}Social Construct of Fuels in the Interface{\textquoteright} project for the Bushfire CRC.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-02-02}, author = {Brenda Leahy} } @article {bnh-3953, title = {Is a picture worth a thousand words? Evaluating the effectiveness of maps for delivering wildfire warning information}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {19}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, pages = {179-196}, chapter = {179}, abstract = {

Maps are a sensible approach for communicating wildfire early warnings to the public as such warnings often contain a multitude of spatial information. However, a reluctance of agencies was found in using accurate and timely wildfire maps for public warnings, a sentiment potentially fuelled by beliefs that the public are not fluent map-readers and may be overwhelmed by the large amount of information. To test the validity of these beliefs, this study empirically compared the effectiveness of maps versus traditional text-based approaches for communicating spatial-related wildfire warning information. Through an online survey, 261 residents from wildfire prone areas in Western Australia were asked to view multidimensional spatial information regarding a simulated wildfire scenario presented as either text messages or maps, and were subsequently queried for their comprehension, their risk perceptions, and the attractiveness of the presentation format. Additionally, the survey captured the time required to interpret the varied information representations. The results showed that appropriately designed maps prevailed over text messages for the communication of most wildfire warning information by improving comprehension, elevating risk perceptions, and increasing appeal to the public. However, an optimal communication approach would be to couple map designs with several imperative textual descriptors. Especially, the textual description of safe shelters in the community (i.e. location names and addresses) yielded indispensible meaning when the locations were well-known landmarks, and hence should not be replaced by map-based depiction. Furthermore, several heuristics were identified to facilitate the design of effective warning maps across hazards in general.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.08.012}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916301674?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @article {bnh-3039, title = {Policies, institutions and governance of natural hazards: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {183}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The resilience of a community is dependent on more than just engineering and preparation. Government policies, institutions and governance arrangements fundamentally affect how individuals and communities prepare for, respond to and recover from natural hazard events.\  Understanding relevant institutions and how they influence disaster management is essential to develop whole of government and whole of community understanding of risks and how to manage them.

This research project will shed invaluable light on current policy, institutional and governance arrangements with a view to developing new approaches to shared responsibility (COAG 2011) to increase community resilience to all natural hazards.\  This project will deliver:

}, issn = {183}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-4053, title = {The potential for coastal dune de-stabilisation following 2015/16 wildfires near Esperance, WA}, number = {329}, year = {2016}, month = {03/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study investigates the potential for long term change in the coastal landscape following wildfires. Under certain conditions it is possible for coastal dunes to shift from stable to active and vice versa. The removal of vegetation via disturbance (natural or human) is one possible trigger for the transition from stable to active (destabilisation). Fire has been proposed as a disturbance which is likely to destabilise dunes, however this has not been well studied. The aim of this project is to assess the immediate aftermath of fires on two dune areas near Esperance, WA (behind Quallilup Beach to the west, and Wylie Beach to the east), and then to monitor the geomorphic response of the dunes, interpreting this with regard to a range of potentially influential factors (meteorological and ecological). The key themes thus far are that re-sprouting plants at Wylie Beach indicate a reasonable likelihood of vegetation recovery and the dunes remaining stable. However, full recovery may hinge on appropriate conditions for continued plant regrowth. The future Quallilup less clear, due to the potential decrease in regrowth after a more intense burn. It is feasible that prolonged exposure of the surface to strong winds in the absence of vegetation recovery may eventually wear through the protective crusting and destabilise the dunes.

}, issn = {329}, author = {Hesse, Paul and Shumack, Samuel} } @article {bnh-2587, title = {Predicting continental shelf waves in Australia}, number = {160}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A range of processes can cause extreme water levels that endanger human life and cause property damage. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones are well known to pose a risk for coastal inhabitants.\  However, a lesser-known effect of landfalling cyclones is the generation of coastally trapped waves that can propagate along the coast and influence water levels thousands of kilometres away. Examples of such waves include continental shelf waves (CSWs) that travel to the left along the coastline in the southern hemisphere and are common along the Australian coastline (Church et al., 1986; Eliot and Pattiaratchi, 2010).

This study investigated the generation and propagation characteristics of continental shelf waves (CSWs) in Western Australia, a hotspot of continental shelf wave activity in Australia, utilising the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS).\  An idealised model of the North West Shelf (NWS) with ~ 4 km spatial resolution and 30 vertical sigma layers was forced by simulated tropical cyclones that varied in speed, direction (parallel, perpendicular or at 45{\textdegree} to the coastline) and category.\  Realistic cyclone simulations were performed for Tropical Cyclone Bianca in 2011 using an Australia-wide model and comparisons made to observations.

Results from the idealised numerical model showed that a cyclone{\textquoteright}s path, speed and category affect continental shelf wave generation and propagation.\  Greater cyclone category resulted in higher amplitude continental shelf waves.\  Cyclones that travelled parallel to the coastline generated continental shelf waves that were faster than the cyclone forward speed and produced higher amplitude waves than those generated by different trajectories.\  Increased parallel cyclone forward speed corresponded to an increase in the continental shelf wave height. If the parallel cyclone forward speed was too fast (i.e. greater than 14 ms-1), the continental shelf wave height decreased.\  Parallel moving cyclones travelling near to the continental shelf break with a forward speed of ~ 7.5 ms-1 generated the highest amplitude waves. If the cyclone discontinued travelling parallel, the continental shelf wave gained similar properties to continental shelf waves generated by perpendicular or 45{\textdegree} travelling cyclones.\  These type of cyclones generated continental shelf waves that had a lower wave height, which were even lower for faster moving cyclones.\  The propagation speed of these waves scaled to the Coriolis parameter and characteristic length scale of the continental shelf.\  The lower wave height of these waves can be explained by the continental shelf wave travelling as a "free wave".

Propagation characteristics of continental shelf waves generated by Cyclone Bianca and Carlos from realistic cyclone simulations showed cyclone path and continental shelf bathymetry had an influence on CSW height and propagation speed. The calculated approximate travel speed from lag correlation analysis was 5.8 ms-1 for both continental shelf waves.\  Tropical Cyclone Bianca travelled parallel to the Western Australian coastline which reinforced the continental shelf wave height. Tropical Cyclone Carlos continued offshore from Exmouth so the continental shelf wave had little energy to propagate around the curved coastline in the Capes Region.\  Both continental shelf waves decreased in propagation speed between Exmouth and Carnarvon where the continental shelf width decreased rapidly.\  The continental shelf wave generated by Tropical Cyclone Bianca rapidly decreased at Albany which may be explained by the curvature of the coastline which resulted in wave scattering.\ \ \ 

Results from this study demonstrate how particular cyclone properties influence the generation of continental shelf waves and through this improves our ability to predict the influence of CSWs on extreme water levels along the Australian coast. .\  It is recommended that design criteria, modelling studies and inundation risk assessments for coastal regions in Western Australia need to consider the effects of continental shelf waves.\ \ 

}, issn = {160}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and E.M.S Wijeratne and Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic} } @article {bnh-2532, title = {Predicting dead fine fuel moisture at regional scales using vapour pressure deficit from MODIS and gridded weather data}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {174}, year = {2016}, month = {03/2016}, chapter = {100}, abstract = {

Spatially explicit predictions of fuel moisture content are crucial for quantifying fire danger indices and as inputs to fire behaviour models. Remotely sensed predictions of fuel moisture have typically focused on live fuels; but regional estimates of dead fuel moisture have been less common. Here we develop and test the spatial application of a recently developed dead fuel moisture model, which is based on the exponential decline of fine fuel moisture with increasing vapour pressure deficit (D). We first compare the performance of two existing approaches to predict\ D\ from satellite observations. We then use remotely sensed\ D, as well as\ D\ estimated from gridded daily weather observations, to predict dead fuel moisture. We calibrate and test the model at a woodland site in South East Australia, and then test the model at a range of sites in South East Australia and Southern California that vary in vegetation type, mean annual precipitation (129{\textendash}1404\ mm\ year-\ 1) and leaf area index (0.1{\textendash}5.7). We found that\ D\ modelled from remotely sensed land surface temperature performed slightly better than a model which also included total precipitable water (MAE\ \<\ 1.16\ kPa and 1.62\ kPa respectively).\ Dcalculated with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite was under-predicted in areas with low leaf area index. Both\ D\ from remotely sensed data and gridded weather station data were good predictors of the moisture content of dead suspended fuels at validation sites, with mean absolute errors less than 3.9\% and 6.0\% respectively. The occurrence of data gaps in remotely sensed time series presents an obstacle to this approach, and assimilated or extrapolated meteorological observations may offer better continuity.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425715302315}, author = {Rachael Nolan and Victor Resco de Dios and Matthias M. Boer and Gabriele Caccamo and Michael L Goulden and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-3424, title = {Predicting risk-mitigating behaviors from indecisiveness and trait-anxiety: two cognitive pathways to task avoidance}, journal = {Journal of Personality}, volume = {84}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, pages = {36-45}, chapter = {36}, abstract = {

Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single study to date has examined the influence of these traits and processes together. Examining them simultaneously is necessary to gain an integrated understanding of their relationship with risk-mitigating behaviors. We therefore examined these traits and mediators in relation to wildfire preparedness in a two-wave field study among residents of wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia (total\ N = 223). Structural equation modeling results showed that indecisiveness uniquely predicted preparedness, with higher indecisiveness predicting lower preparedness. This relationship was fully mediated by perceived control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction. This shows how the lack of performing risk-mitigating behaviors can result from distinct cognitive processes that are linked to distinct personality traits. It also highlights how simultaneous examination of multiple pathways to behavior creates a fuller understanding of its antecedents.

}, doi = {10.1111/jopy.12135}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jopy.12135/abstract}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {bnh-3036, title = {Pre-disaster multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation model: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {180}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In Australia, a country that suffers from numerous natural disaster events, understanding the economic impacts of these events is key to implementing effective disaster risk reduction strategies and improving overall community resilience to minimise the social, economic and environmental impacts. One aspect of achieving this goal includes understanding not only the primary economic effects of the natural disasters, but also the secondary effects that can impact more broadly in many different economic sectors.

Understanding not only the local, but also the larger scale impacts of disaster events is important to enable the full extent of the disaster event to be known. With this information, all sectors impacted can be recognised enabling more comprehensive disaster risk reduction approaches for the future.

In order to address this problem, the multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation model team are conducting a case study on the 2010-2011 Queensland Floods which involves comparisons between the economic sectors of flooded areas and unaffected areas. The income of individuals residing in those areas will be compared with finer detail revealing the sectoral decomposition of employment to reflect any differences in income by employment type as a result of the flood.

Preliminary results indicate that some sectors experienced no income difference as a result of the floods. Three sectors were impacted negatively, and two were impacted positively as a result of the flood event. Future work will continue to investigate these results, and will aim to understand the different economic impacts to each sector.

}, issn = {180}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-2702, title = {Preliminary report on economic loss modelling}, number = {164}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output from entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} within the
Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.


Earthquakes have the potential to cause widespread damage to Australian communities and the economic activity that occurs within them. Recent earthquake events have illustrated this, including the Newcastle Earthquake (1989) and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake (2010). This potential is largely due to the fact that much of the Australian building stock has not been designed nor constructed with adequate consideration of earthquake hazard.
Mitigation intervention is needed to reduce this risk but an evidence base is lacking to inform investment. In particular, there is a need for economic measures of the benefits of retrofit as an offset to the sometimes large costs of upgrading structures for earthquake.


This need exists in many other countries. As part of this research a literature survey of research published internationally is underway to inform the best approach for assessing the costs of business interruption and the losses associated with injury and death. The findings of this work to date are described and are informing the research program.


This preliminary report also describes the frameworks developed for a range of Australian decision makers. Decision makers include building owners, owners of both business premises and the business within, local government, state government and national government. The scale of decision making metrics range from individual building level up to business precinct level exposures and the interdependence of building performance within them. The information and models required as inputs into the framework have been identified along with how these will be met, either with outputs from this CRC project, or from other sources.


Current research on the economic loss modelling is on track. Future work will complete the literature survey and develop casualty cost modules adapted from those published for use in this project. In the succeeding year business interruption loss models will be developed and framework/methodology developed for assessing precinct level economic activity disruption.

}, issn = {164}, author = {Mark Edwards and Itismita Mohanty and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @conference {bnh-2952, title = {Preventing flood related fatalities: a focus on people driving through floodwater}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. In 2013, 44 per cent of natural disaster fatalities were caused by floods (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2013). Flash floods, in particular, have the highest average mortality rate per event (Jonkman, 2005). Approximately 180 people have died in Australia over the last 15 years (Haynes, et al., 2016; Peden, 2016). A large number of these fatalities occurred when people drove their vehicles into floodwaters, ignoring road closures and warning signs.\ Despite numerous campaigns on the dangers of floodwaters in recent years, people continue to put themselves at risk each year. In the June 2016 flood in New South Wales (NSW) alone, approximately 350 flood rescues occurred. Many of these rescues (approximately 50 per cent) included people stranded in or on the roofs of their cars, who may have otherwise been added to the number of fatalities. This flood event also resulted in the loss of multiple lives.
Following the major flood event on the east coast of Australia in May 2015, where several lives were also lost, the Law Crime and Community Safety Council (LCCSC) Ministers sought the Community Engagement Sub-committee (CESC) of the Australia-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee (ANZEMC) to explore the issue. A working group was established consisting of representatives from the Commonwealth, state and territory governments, and from the research industry. The project was funded by the Commonwealth Attorney-General{\textquoteright}s Department (AGD), with the resultant report prepared by the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) and the working group on behalf of ANZEMC. As at 11 July, the report has not been endorsed by ANZEMC CESC or AGD.

}, author = {Elspeth Rae and Phil Campbell and Katharine Haynes and Andrew Gissing and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {bnh-3416, title = {Production of pyrogenic carbon during planned fires in forests of East Gippsland, Victoria}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {373}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {9-16}, chapter = {9}, abstract = {

Management strategies such as planned burning for fuel reduction can help mitigate the effects of wildfires. The amount of biomass consumed is of interest to fire managers as reduction of fuel loads is imperative to reducing the risk and extent of a wildfire event. Biomass regeneration is also of importance for ecosystem recovery and resilience. Pyrogenic carbon (PyC), a product of combustion during both planned and unplanned fires, plays a key role in global carbon stores and balances. A three-year study of planned burning practices examined fires in Lowland temperate Eucalypt forest of south eastern Australia. We collected data on overstorey, understorey, coarse woody debris, fine litter, PyC and soil across nine sites to determine biomass consumption, PyC production and changes in ecosystem carbon during planned burning. Lowland forest showed significant recovery of combustible biomass (fine litter and understorey) one year after planned fire. Across our sites, PyC was produced at a rate of approximately 5\% of the biomass consumed. The PyC produced is destined to become part of soil and litter carbon and contributes to long-term carbon storage. Planned burning had a short-term (\<1\ year) impact on forest carbon balance, and on reduction risk of wildfire and associated losses of biomass carbon, but no long-term impact, through deposition of PyC and recovery of biomass.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2016.04.028}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112716301979}, author = {Jenkins, Meaghan E. and Bell, Tina and Lai Fan Poon and Cristina Aponte and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-2646, title = {Proposed tools for monitoring teams in emergency management}, number = {162}, year = {2016}, month = {03/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

As part of their role in managing emergencies regional and state level emergency managers (SEMs) monitor the activities of operational teams below them in the agency to ensure that those teams are functioning safely and effectively. Teams operating in complex dynamic environments are likely to experience disruptions to their teamwork (particularly in the early phases of an emergency). If these disruptions are not managed effectively they will cause the team to move out of conceptualised safe spaces of operation, firstly into the {\textquotedblleft}zone of coping ugly{\textquotedblright} then into an area where incidents and accidents become more likely to occur.


The question then is how SEMs can best manage teams to ensure that they are functioning effectively. There are a number of methods for examining the performance of teams that have been presented in the literature on teamwork. However, none of these have been used in an emergency management context. Two of these methods have been selected as initially warranting further consideration and will be modified and trialled in the initial phases of the evaluation stage of the project. These methods are: The Emergency Management Breakdown Aide Memoire (EMBAM) and a Teamwork Behavioural Markers tool based on the work of Wilson et al. (2007).


The Emergency Management Breakdown Aide Memoir (EMBAM) is a guide to assist the identification of teamwork breakdowns across the various organisational levels by listing indicators of breakdowns. This includes categories, such as: missing information, conflicting expectations, inconsistent information, intuition, familiarity, and networks. The team behavioural markers tool is based on a set of behavioural markers of teamwork developed by Wilson et al. (2007). It is designed so a person can scan the list and think about the items to ensure that aspects of good team performance are being followed and if not, to be able to identify what is going wrong.


In the next stages of the project the research team and a small group of end-users (selected from a wider set of end-users involved with the project) will iteratively develop and test the two team monitoring tools that have initially been identified as warranting further consideration. In this way, enhanced methods for monitoring teams can be developed that can be used for the early detection of problems that if unresolved, can lead to impaired operational performance.

}, issn = {162}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Rainbird, Sophia and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-3230, title = {Psychophysiological relationships between a multi-component self-report measure of mood, stress and behavioural signs and symptoms, and physiological stress responses during a simulated firefighting deployment}, journal = {International Journal of Psychophysiology}, volume = {110}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, abstract = {

Physical work and sleep loss are wildland firefighting demands that elicit psychological and physiological stress responses. Research shows that these responses are statistically related which presents an opportunity to use subjective psychological questionnaires to monitor physiological changes among firefighters; an approach used extensively in sport settings. The aim of the present study was to investigate if changes in self-reported psychological factors on the multi-component training distress scale (MTDS), relate to cytokines and cortisol levels among firefighters completing three days of simulated physical firefighting work separated by an 8-h or restricted 4-h sleep each night. Each day firefighters completed the MTDS in the morning and salivary cortisol and inflammatory cytokines were measured throughout the day. When sleep restricted, firefighters demonstrated increases in MTDS factors of general fatigue, perceived stress and depressed mood that were related to elevated cytokines (TNF-α, IL-8, IL-10, IL-6) and cortisol. Conversely, firefighters who had an 8-h sleep demonstrated a positive relationship between physical signs and symptoms and elevated IL-6, while depressed mood was inversely related to decreasing cortisol and cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10). Findings highlight the utility of the MTDS to detect psychological changes that reflect physiological responses among firefighters. Future research that establishes thresholds for specific factors which predict health-related physiological changes, will allow fire agencies implement multi-component measures to monitor and manage the health of personnel on the fire-ground.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2016.10.015}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167876016307681}, author = {Alexander Wolkow and Brad Aisbett and Sally Ferguson and John Reynolds and Luana Main} } @article {bnh-3205, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus forecasting: needs and issues}, number = {239}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus events can substantially change the weather characteristics in the vicinity of fires, which may drastically affect fire behaviour.\  This is of very considerable concern for fire managers, and therefore for fire weather forecasters.\  In particular, the wind around a fire can become very erratic in the presence of pyroCb, with downburst winds a greater risk than at other times.\  Lightning from pyroCb can ignite additional fires, and in extreme cases pyroCb may generate tornadoes (such as occurred during the 2003 Canberra fire).

Forecasters and fire managers need to be aware of the possibility of pyroCb development to allow for the chance of such erratic fire behaviour.\  The environments that support pyroCb development, then, are an important topic of study for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, and the results of this research project will be of great interest to all involved in the planning for and management of dangerous wildfires.

}, issn = {239}, author = {KJ Tory and Mika Peace and W. Thurston} } @article {bnh-3546, title = {Remote Sensing-Derived Water Extent and Level to Constrain Hydraulic Flood Forecasting Models: Opportunities and Challenges}, journal = {Surveys in Geophysics}, volume = {37}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, chapter = {977}, abstract = {

Accurate, precise and timely forecasts of flood wave arrival time, depth and velocity at each point of the floodplain are essential to reduce damage and save lives. Current computational capabilities support hydraulic models of increasing complexity over extended catchments. Yet a number of sources of uncertainty (e.g., input and boundary conditions, implementation data) may hinder the delivery of accurate predictions. Field gauging data of water levels and discharge have traditionally been used for hydraulic model calibration, validation and real-time constraint. However, the discrete spatial distribution of field data impedes the testing of the model skill at the two-dimensional scale. The increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) observations of flood extent and water level offers the opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the predictive capability of hydraulic models. The adequate use of the large amount of information offered by RS observations triggers a series of challenging questions on the resolution, accuracy and frequency of acquisition of RS observations; on RS data processing algorithms; and on calibration, validation and data assimilation protocols. This paper presents a review of the availability of RS observations of flood extent and levels, and their use for calibration, validation and real-time constraint of hydraulic flood forecasting models. A number of conclusions and recommendations for future research are drawn with the aim of harmonising the pace of technological developments and their applications.

}, doi = {doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9378-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-016-9378-y}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @article {bnh-2857, title = {Remote-sensing flood data is filling the gaps}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

Floods account for some of the worst natural disasters in Australia, costing millions of dollars in damage each year, and devastating communities. Research is testing a new approach to flood forecasting using satellite technology, which could help communities prepare for and deal with floods.

Predicting water depth and its velocity is vital for timely and accurate flood forecasting. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC is undertaking research along the Clarence River in northern New South Wales using a hydrological survey to improve flood forecasting in the area.

The research team has built a three-dimensional map of the river bed that can be maintained as conditions change. This has been done using a HydroSurveyor, including an echo sounder, Doppler velocity profiler and GPS antenna.

- See more at: https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-03-02$\#$sthash.4T4rZLJQ.dpuf

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-03-02}, author = {Freya Jones} } @conference {bnh-2960, title = {Research proceedings from the 2016 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC annual conference 2016}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane, Australia}, abstract = {

The full research proceedings\ from the 2016 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference, held in Brisbane from 30 August to 1 September. The document contains two sections. Section one is peer reviewed, full conference papers. Section two is non-peer reviewed extended abstracts.

Note that the October issue of the\ Australian Journal of Emergency Management will be a special edition and\ will contain many more peer reviewed papers.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-6-2}, author = {Rumsewicz, M} } @article {bnh-2918, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events at the coast: storm surge: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {168}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

The storm events that occurred on the southeast coast of Australia during 1974 are the most significant and recent in memory in terms of coastal impact associated with clustered events. The clustering in that year occurred as a series of at least 10 storms between January and June. Not all of these events led to coastal erosion, but the sequence likely played some role in setting the pre-conditions of the beach that ultimately led to the erosion towards the end of this six month period. The question therefore is to determine the beach response to clustered event sets and the nature of how those events ultimately lead to erosion.
The problem is complex as the response to the forcing will vary {\textendash} there will be a spectrum from inundation to erosion, and further, there will be varying factors that drive the erosion (e.g. long-shore, cross-shore) that are functions of the location and the event.

Australia{\textquoteright}s population is concentrated along the coastline, with over 85\% within 50 km of the coastline (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001). In New South Wales for example, the NSW Government has identified 15 erosional hotspots (Kinsela and Hanslow 2013), along its 2000 km of coastline. Of the approximately 1000 km of erodible sandy beaches (open coast only), 28\% is within 220 m of property. The storm event that impacted the southeast coast of Australia on the weekend of 5 May 2016 has served as a dramatic reminder of the damage that storm surge can produce, with significant beach erosion and property damage at a number of high profile locations in Sydney including Collaroy and Coogee. Any subsequent storm(s) will potentially worsen the situation at these locations, particularly if they occur before the beaches have had time to rebuild naturally.

The study will quantify the risk of these clustered events by determining the nature of the hazard, the elements that are exposed to this hazard and their resultant vulnerability. Combining the frequency of the hazard with its impact will enable the risk to be quantified. This risk can then be managed through the coastal and disaster management processes of all stakeholders.\ The study is focused on two case studies, Old Bar beach in NSW and the beaches of metropolitan Adelaide. These sites were selected in consultation with the project end-users on the basis that they are actively being managed as erosion\ {\textquoteleft}hotspots{\textquoteright}. The physical setting of each site also presents an opportunity to advance our understanding of shoreline processes. The project has adopted the coastal compartment framework as the functional unit for understanding shoreline response at a range of spatial scales, and detailed geomorphological site investigations are being used as input to the beach response modelling.\ Together, the risk and coastal compartments framework are powerful in terms of situating the assessment at local, regional and national scales.

}, issn = {168}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-3410, title = {Resolving future fire management conflicts using multi-criteria decision making}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {30}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, pages = {196-205}, chapter = {196}, abstract = {

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland{\textendash}urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.

}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12580}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12580/abstract}, author = {Don A. Driscoll and Michael Bode and Ross Bradstock and David A. Keith and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-6008, title = {Retrofitting RC Beam-Column Joint in Australia using Single Diagonal Haunch}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2016 Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, publisher = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, organization = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is potentially the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure in Australia. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for preventing brittle failure of the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC beam-column joint in Australia is explored. This paper presents the key formulations of the technique and illustrates its effectiveness by showing analytically the changes in the shear demand at the joint.

}, keywords = {Exterior beam-column joint, limited-ductile, RC frame, seismic retrofitting, single haunch}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-2700, title = {Review of beach profile and shoreline models applicable to the statistical modelling of beach erosion and the impacts of storm clustering}, number = {163}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, Resilience to Clustered Disaster Events on the Coast {\textendash}\ Storm Surge proposes to develop a beach profile or shoreline evolution model appropriate for assessing the\ behaviour of selected beaches to clustered storm events.

This paper outlines the characteristics required of\ an appropriate model and reviews literature and model results to determine if existing approaches include\ the required physics and can be embedded within a suitable statistical framework for a stochastic analysis. It\ is anticipated a priori that a hybrid model approach will be required, utilizing existing process models in a\ new model suite. A discussion of modelling approaches is provided, together with a justification of the model\ proposed for the project.


The chosen model, with appropriate refinements and modifications, will be applied at two case study sites;\ Old Bar (NSW) and Adelaide Beaches (SA). This review focuses on models that can be applied at these field\ sites within the constraints imposed by the available data. These data are summarized in a previous report -\ Identified data on study sites: Old Bar and Adelaide Beaches Geoscience Australia (2015), IDSS henceforth.


Coincident with the model development, will be the development of a model framework for its\ implementation. These potential approaches for model and modelling frameworks are discussed in this\ paper. This modular separation of the model and model framework allows for an iterative development
approach where refinements can be made as they are required.


While the overarching aim is to develop a model and model framework that accurately quantifies erosional\ risk at these study sites, the approach should be transportable to other coastal sites of interest. Even in the\ development stage we may include third site at Narrabeen beach due to its rich data history and relative\ close proximity to the Old Bar site. Furthermore the authors have an active study site at Wooli beach where\ we also expect to test the model.\ 

This report is structured as follows. Section 2 discusses the requirements of the model with regard to the\ coastal processes characteristic of the field sites and outlines the basic model types for coastal\ morphodynamic modelling.\ Section 3 reviews general coastal morphodynamic modelling and lists specific\ models considered to potentially suit the project aims and discusses the merits of each with respect to the\ dominant coastal sediment processes at the two field sites. Section 4 provides details on common statistical\ modelling frameworks and those considered for this study. A concluding discussion and preliminary\ recommendation for the model and model framework are presented in section 5.

}, issn = {163}, author = {Uriah Gravois and David Callaghan and Tom Baldock and Katrina Smith and Bronte Martin} } @article {bnh-3128, title = {The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {25}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, abstract = {

We analysed the influence of weather, time since fire (TSF) and topography on the occurrence of crown fire, as mapped from satellite imagery, in 23 of the largest wildfires in dry sclerophyll forests in eastern Australia from 2002 to 2013. Fires were analysed both individually and as groups. Fire weather was the most important predictor of crown consumption. TSF (a surrogate for fuel accumulation) had complex nonlinear effects that varied among fires. Crown fire likelihood was low up to 4 years post-fire, peaked at ~10 years post-fire and then declined. There was no clear indication that recent burning became more or less effective as fire weather became more severe. Steeper slope reduced crown fire likelihood, contrary to the assumptions of common fire behaviour equations. More exposed areas (ridges and plains) had higher crown fire likelihood. Our results suggest prescribed burning to maintain an average of 10 years{\textquoteright} TSF may actually increase crown fire likelihood, but burning much more frequently can be effective for risk reduction. Our results also suggest the effects of weather, TSF and slope are not adequately represented in the underlying equations of most fire behaviour models, potentially leading to poor prediction of fire spread and risk.

}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF15171}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-7445, title = {Rural housing resilience in India: Is it reliant on appropriate technology or labour skills?}, booktitle = {Sustainable Futures Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, address = {Nairobi, Kenya}, abstract = {

The aim of this paper is to identify key approaches to housing reconstruction in India which demonstrate success in the: i) (re)building of resilient houses, ii) enabling of house-hold autonomy, and iii) enhancing of artisanal skills over the longer term (i.e. greater than 7 years since disaster). With the rising frequency and complexity of natural hazards, the need for resilience to be {\textquoteright}built in{\textquoteright} to housing reconstruction projects is urgent. To achieve the research aim, a mixed methods methodology and {\textquoteright}case study{\textquoteright} approach is used. Four good practice reconstruction projects in India are selected for comparative analysis, these are: i) Hodko and Patanka in Gujarat (post 2001 earthquake), and ii) Orlaha and Puraini in Bihar (post 2008 floods). This paper discusses findings from empirical investigations conducted using an analytical lifespan framework with the timescale tools reflecting an Input, Output, Results and Impact examination. The findings suggest that for reconstruction to be successful and, importantly, effective in terms of housing resilience the {\textquoteright}process{\textquoteright} must support the confidence of local households, use/employ the local labour fource and the up-skilling of these builders (who may also need on-going support for linkages to livelihood)

}, keywords = {Housing, Reconstruction, recover, resilience}, url = {https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Rural-housing-resilience-in-India\%3A-Is-it-reliant-on-Vahanvati-Beza/4fed0ed10a0f077fba67e1d28195aea0677097f8}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Beau Beza} } @article {bnh-3115, title = {Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazard scenario planning for northern Australia: annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {235}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazards scenario planning for northern Australia project is part of a larger suite of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University focused broadly on {\textquoteleft}Building community resilience in northern Australia{\textquoteright}. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote Indigenous communities, and identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that can contribute to enhancing community development and resilience.

We report here on activities undertaken in 2015-2016 for two active sub-projects: Savanna fire management, and Gulf fire management. A third sub-project; Management of flammable high biomass grassy weeds, will commence in July 2016, and a fourth sub-project addressing scenario planning issues for better informing and engaging remote communities with project outcomes will commence in early 2017.

The Savanna fire management sub-project (undertaken by Dr Andrew Edwards) commenced late in 2013. It builds upon satellite derived modeling of fire severity. These datasets, combined with fire history mapping, are being applied to assess fire risks to biodiversity, emissions and ecosystem services in general. Over the past year this sub-project has:

1. continued to develop and refine the fire severity mapping algorithm, particulalrly for environmental assessment and emissions accounting applications;

2. undertaken finer scale analyses of the fire mapping and ancillary spatial data for Indigenous land management applications across northern Australia (Kimberley{\textquoteright}s, Arnhem Land, Gulf region, Cape York); and

3. undertaken informal workshops with indigenous ranger groups to ascertain the use and utility of the mapping products.

The Gulf fire management sub-project has principally involved PhD studies (undertaken by Kate van Wezel) exploring Indigenous women{\textquoteright}s engagement and employment opportunities with fire management and emissions abatement projects being established in the remote NT / QLD Gulf region.

Both above sub-projects are proceeding exceptionally well. Findings from both sub-projects will be incorporated in a substantial final report addressing sustainable north Australian community development issues, due to be published as a book in mid-2017.

}, issn = {235}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Yates, Cameron P. and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-2696, title = {Science in Motion: integrating scientific knowledge into bushfire risk mitigation in southwest Victoria}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, type = {Refereed}, abstract = {

Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainties play a significant role in the mitigation of natural hazard risk. As such, the natural hazards sector is often represented as {\textquoteright}science-led{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteright}research-led{\textquoteright}. However, in actuality, relationships between scientific research, policy and practice are neither simple nor linear, and there are presently few studies that focus on the layers of practitioners who find themselves mediating these relationships. In order to provide insight into the integration of scientific knowledge, this paper considers the findings of a case study of bushfire practitioners in the Barwon-Otway area of southwest Victoria. This region has recently been the site of multi-agency efforts to reduce the residual bushfire risk using the PHOENIX RapidFire bushfire simulator. The paper concludes by posing several questions relevant to this and other risk mitigation contexts.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-02-04}, author = {Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-2972, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {182}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the problem?
There is a significant knowledge deficit concerning how science and other forms of knowledge are used and integrated into sector policy and practice, leading to incorrect and counter-productive misunderstandings. The emphasis on the value of scientific knowledge within the natural hazards sector {\textendash} and particularly in regards to risk mitigation {\textendash} is legitimate. However, to this point, this valuing of science has not been accompanied by research into the actual opportunities and challenges of using science in policy and practice.
Why is it important?
Without greater insight into how science and other forms of knowledge are used and integrated into sector policy and practice, the ability of policymakers and practitioners to explain risk mitigation and translate its scientific basis is compromised. The sector is also vulnerable to the perpetuation of received ideas and {\textquoteleft}myths{\textquoteright} about science, its use and its utility.
How are we going to solve it?
This research project will provide insight into the opportunities and challenges of using science in policy and practice through case studies. In doing so, it will provided an improved understanding of scientific integration pathways and an improved basis for articulating and defending science-based decision-making in natural hazard risk mitigation.

}, issn = {182}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-3114, title = {Scoping remote north Australian community resilience and developing governance models through action research: annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {234}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scoping remote northern Australia resilience{\textquoteright} project is part of a larger suite of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote Indigenous communities, and identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that can contribute to enhancing community development and resilience.

This report addresses two sets of project activities:

(a) community-based studies undertaken in association with remote Indigenous communities in Arnhem Land

(b) over-arching activities addressing broader stakeholder and community engagement

}, issn = {234}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-3948, title = {Seismic site response analysis leading to revised design response spectra for Australia}, journal = {Journal of Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {21}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

This study explores the effects of local site conditions on seismic site response and investigates the validity of the site classification system and the response spectra in codes, with a focus on the Australian earthquake loading standard. The results show that the averaging process used to derive the design spectra in existing codes has led, in general, to an underestimation of the site response. A new systematic method is proposed for obtaining the displacement response spectra based on the correlations between the initial and degraded fundamental natural site period and amplification factors. Modifications to the site classification system are also recommended.

}, doi = {10.1080/13632469.2016.1210058}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13632469.2016.1210058}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4667, title = {Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Asymmetrical Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Australia}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society }, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

Many reinforced concrete buildings in Australia are laterally supported by reinforced concrete cores/shear walls that are eccentrically located in the buildings. The structural elements at the edges of the asymmetrical buildings can be subjected to a significant displacement demand, making this type of buildings highly vulnerable in an earthquake. Seismic assessment methods for asymmetrical buildings commonly involve three-dimensional dynamic analyses that can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a simplified analysis method for multi-storey buildings featuring plan asymmetry. The method has been used to assess the seismic vulnerability of asymmetrical reinforced concrete buildings in Australia.

}, keywords = {Aymmetrical buildings, fragility curves, reinforced concrete., simplified analysis method}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/379-Lumantarna-et-al.pdf}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Alireza Mehdipanah and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Emad F Gad and Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @article {bnh-5098, title = {Simplified elastic design checks for torsionally balanced and unbalanced low-medium rise buildings in lower seismicity regions}, journal = {Earthquakes and Structures}, volume = {11}, year = {2016}, pages = {741-777}, chapter = {741}, abstract = {

A simplified approach of assessing torsionally balanced (TB) and torsionally unbalanced (TU) low-medium rise buildings of up to 30 m in height is presented in this paper for regions of low-to-moderate seismicity. The Generalised Force Method of Analysis for TB buildings which is illustrated in the early part of the paper involves calculation of the deflection profile of the building in a 2D analysis in order that a capacity diagram can be constructed to intercept with the acceleration-displacement response spectrum diagram representing seismic actions. This approach of calculation on the planar model of a building which involves applying lateral forces to the building (waiving away the need of a dynamic analysis and yet obtaining similar results) has been adapted for determining the deflection behaviour of a TU building in the later part of the paper. Another key original contribution to knowledge is taking into account the strong dependence of the torsional response behaviour of the building on the periodic properties of the applied excitations in relation to the natural periods of vibration of the building. Many of the trends presented are not reflected in provisions of major codes of practices for the seismic design of buildings. The deflection behaviour of the building in response to displacement controlled (DC) excitations is in stark contrast to behaviour in acceleration controlled (AC), or velocity controlled (VC), conditions, and is much easier to generalise. Although DC conditions are rare with buildings not exceeding 30 m in height displacement estimates based on such conditions can be taken as upper bound estimates in order that a conservative prediction of the displacement profile at the edge of a TU building can be obtained conveniently by the use of a constant amplification factor to scale results from planar analysis.

}, doi = {10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.741}, url = {http://koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=TPTPJW_2016_v11n5_741}, author = {Nelson Lam and John Wilson and Elisa Lumantarna} } @conference {bnh-2935, title = {The social life of science in bushfire policy and planning: tales from Victoria and the Northern Territory}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Quite rightly, practitioners in the natural hazards sector hold science in high regard. Scientific research has provided significant insights into our predictions of, and preparation for, events whose behaviours and occurrence are both high consequence and highly uncertain. As such, it is unsurprising that government agencies often emphasise their commitment to having {\textquoteleft}science-led{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}evidence-based{\textquoteright} policies. But the routes between science, policy and planning are complex and variable. That is, while we may often hear (or say) that there is a straightforward relationship between scientific research, natural hazards policy and management practice this is based more in aspiration than reality. Experience suggests that having more scientific research does not always lead to less scientific uncertainty, just as having more scientific research or less scientific uncertainty does not always lead to more political action.

}, author = {Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-2588, title = {A southeast Queensland tropical cyclone scenario}, number = {159}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Tropical cyclones are devastating events for the communities they affect. Realistic disaster scenario analysis is a simulation technique that can be used by disaster management agencies to understand the potential impacts of these storms and help them better prepare for their inevitable occurrence. This report describes research undertaken to develop such a scenario and detail its impacts.

The primary aim of this project was to assess the potential impacts of a category 4 storm impacting the populous region of southeast Queensland. A perturbed version of the track taken by Severe Tropical Cyclone Dinah in 1967 was chosen for simulation and the key findings of this work are as follows:

Future work will further develop both the wind hazard and vulnerability models used in the current simulation and will seek to include new model components that simulate tropical cyclone induced rainfall, coastal inundation and their impacts.\ 

}, issn = {159}, author = {M. S. Mason} } @conference {bnh-2949, title = {A spatial decision support system for natural hazard risk reduction policy assessment and planning}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

The challenges facing environmental policymakers grow increasingly complex and uncertain as more factors that impact on their ability to manage the environment and its risks need to be considered. Due to a large number of influencing environmental and anthropogenic factors, natural hazard risk is difficult to estimate accurately, and exaggerated by large uncertainty in future socioeconomic consequences. Furthermore, resources are scarce, and the benefits of risk reduction strategies are often intangible. Consequently, a decision support system assisting managers to understand disaster risk has great advantage for strategic policy assessment and development, and is the focus of this extended abstract.
The spatial decision support system (SDSS) presented is being developed in collaboration with several South Australian government departments and funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. It integrates multiple hazard models with a land use model which includes information on population and building stock to consider long term spatial and temporal dynamics of natural hazard risk. The integrated SDSS operates at a 100m resolution with a time-step of one year and can be used to model 20{\textendash}50 years into the future. Hazards included in the SDSS include riverine flood, coastal inundation, bushfire, heatwave and earthquake. Each is modelled dependent on the relevant physical properties of the hazard and include the impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological, bushfire and heatwave hazard. The land use model is driven by land use demand (population and jobs), and allocates land accordingly.

}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Andreas Schafer and Graeme Dandy and Charles Newland} } @conference {bnh-2950, title = {Think long term: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning in the south west of Western Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Wildfires are a worldwide phenomenon that can cause significant damage to ecosystems, life and property (Gill 2005; Bowman et al. 2009). Every year in Australia large, uncontrolled fires burn in a variety of landscapes destroying economic, environmental and social assets (Williams et al. 2011). But wildfires are also a natural, inevitable and vital element of the Australian environment that cannot (and should not) be eliminated (Pyne et al. 1996; Pyne 2006). Hence fire management must be an integral part of land and ecosystem management (Bradstock et al. 2012b; Burrows and McCaw 2013).


In recent years, the frequency and severity of large wildfires have increased in most of the vegetated landscapes around the world (Bowman et al. 2009), including Australia. For instance, the fires of Black Saturday on February 2009 caused the highest loss of life and property from a wildfire in Australian history (Teague et al. 2010). The total cost of the Black Saturday fires was estimated to be AU$4.2 billion (Attiwill and Adams 2013). These large fires and losses occur despite advances in fire-fighting technology, greater suppression capacity, considerable suppression efforts, and record expenditures in wildfire suppression (Toman et al. 2011; Attiwill and Adams 2013).

}, author = {Veronique Florec and David J Pannell and Michael Burton and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {bnh-2849, title = {Top-down assessment of disaster resilience: A conceptual framework using coping and adaptive capacities}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {19}, year = {2016}, month = {10/2016}, abstract = {

This paper has free open access.

Assessment of disaster resilience using an index is often a key element of natural hazard management and planning. Many assessments have been undertaken worldwide. Emerging from these are a set of seven common properties that should be considered in the design of any disaster resilience assessment: assessment purpose, top-down or bottom-up assessment, assessment scale, conceptual framework, structural design, indicator selection, data analysis and index computation and reporting and interpretation. We introduce the design of an Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index (ANDRI) according to the common properties of resilience assessment. The ANDRI takes a top-down approach using indicators derived from secondary data with national coverage. The ANDRI is a hierarchical design based on coping and adaptive capacities representing the potential for disaster resilience. Coping capacity is the means by which people or organizations use available resources, skills and opportunities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation. Coping capacity is divided into themes of social character, economic capital, infrastructure and planning, emergency services, community capital and information and engagement. Adaptive capacity is divided into themes of governance, policy and leadership and social and community engagement. Indicators are collected to determine the status of each theme. As assessments of disaster resilience develop worldwide, reporting of their design as standard practice will track knowledge generation in the field and enhance the relationship between applied disaster resilience assessment and foundational principles of disaster resilience.

}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.07.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916300887}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Sonya Glavac and Peter Hastings and Graham Marshall and James McGregor and Judith McNeill and Phil Morley and Ian Reeve and Richard Stayner} } @article {bnh-2856, title = {Towards effective mitigation strategies for severe wind events}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {

The need to mitigate the losses from severe wind events in Australia has been highlighted repeatedly over the last decade, paralleling that of the hurricane-prone south-east United States of America. The Northern Australia Insurance Premiums Taskforce final report released in 2015, along with numerous other studies and reports, emphasised that mitigation is the only rational solution to reducing loss and improving the current insurance affordability situation. Engineering solutions exist to prevent failures, however post-event observations highlight their lack of implementation. It follows that the current level of community engagement in mitigation activities in cyclone-prone regions of Australia must be improved if losses are to be reduced. This paper discusses issues of engagement and reviews literature and existing mitigation programs as background for a smartphone mitigation tool being developed in Queensland, Australia, and Florida, USA. The Northern Australia Insurance Premiums Taskforce final report can be found at:\ www.treasury.gov.au/ConsultationsandReviews/Reviews/2015/NAIP-Taskforce/Final-Report.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-03-14}, author = {Daniel Smith and Connor McShane and Anne Swinbourne and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-5079, title = {Towards tsunami-safer schools in the Wellington region of New Zealand: evaluating drills and awareness programs}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {07/2016}, abstract = {
The Wellington region of New Zealand is exposed to a wide range of potentially damaging impacts from various hazard events (e.g. earthquakes, tsunami, storms and floods). Wellington is situated in one of the most active seismic regions in New Zealand, creating a significant earthquake and tsunami risk. Given the variety of hazards Wellington faces, consideration needs to be given to how the risks are managed within schools. The purpose of the present study was to investigate tsunami preparedness activities undertaken in schools in the region in association with the New Zealand {\~A}{\textdaggerdbl}ShakeOut{\"\i}{\textquestiondown}{\textonehalf} exercise. In November 2015, a survey was carried out in 17 schools from several Wellington tsunami evacuation zones. Results revealed that the sample schools had undertaken at least some tsunami preparedness activities, and some schools reported formal planning, and practice-drills. Importantly however, not all at-risk schools are fully prepared for a tsunami; one of the greatest life-safety risks for students attending school within the Wellington tsunami inundation zones. It is expected that results of the present study will help inform school-based tsunami preparedness guidelines for New Zealand schools.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-31-03-17}, author = {David Johnston and Ruth Tarrant and Karlene Tipler and Emily Lambie and Miles Crawford and Vicki Johnson and Julia Becker and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3341, title = {Turbulent flow over transitionally rough surfaces with varying roughness densities}, journal = {Journal of Fluid Dynamics}, volume = {October 2016}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2016.459}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-fluid-mechanics/article/div-classtitleturbulent-flow-over-transitionally-rough-surfaces-with-varying-roughness-densitiesdiv/61E757B4C36F15D1541FED8F68220105}, author = {M MacDonald and L Chan and Daniel Chung and N Hutchins and Andrew Ooi} } @article {bnh-2673, title = {An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {81}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, pages = {154-164}, chapter = {154}, abstract = {

A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate, technology and socio-economics has led to the realisation that identification of {\textquotedblleft}best-guess{\textquotedblright} future conditions might no longer be appropriate. Instead, multiple plausible futures need to be considered, which requires (i) uncertainties to be described with the aid of scenarios that represent coherent future pathways based on different sets of assumptions, (ii) system performance to be represented by metrics that measure insensitivity (i.e. robustness) to changes in future conditions, and (iii) adaptive strategies to be considered alongside their more commonly used static counterparts. However, while these factors have been considered in isolation previously, there has been a lack of discussion of the way they are connected. In order to address this shortcoming, this paper presents a multidisciplinary perspective on how the above factors fit together to facilitate the development of strategies that are best suited to dealing with a deeply uncertain future.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300780}, author = {Holger Maier and J.H.A Guillaume and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and M Haasnoot and J.H Kwakkel} } @article {bnh-3092, title = {Understanding values at risk and risk ownership workshop synthesis report}, number = {225}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

When natural disasters are large and combine in unpredictable ways, they also cross domains; moving from the private to the public realm, and shifting from a local, to a state or national concern. Most climate-related natural hazards, and the number of people living in hazard-prone areas, are increasing {\textendash} raising the potential of future, unmanaged risks. Deficits in important social and environmental values could arise if they are not adequately accounted or compensated for in decision-making processes. Communities and the environment are vital components of liveability and sustainability, but their underlying values are not well understood. If a risk is owned {\textendash} in that who is responsible for managing the values under threat can be clearly identified {\textendash} then we can assess this imbalance. If a risk is unowned, these values may be more likely to be damaged and degraded, or lost.

Values underpin the foundations of decision-making and shape the choices we make, yet often they only become visible when they are lost. Values can be social, environmental or economic and can be measured as tangible (monetary) or intangible (non-monetary). To date, there has been little clarity as to the worth of different types of values and the role that they play in decision-making within and across institutions. Preventing future loss of values and the associated costs from uncertain but potentially severe natural hazard events can be difficult but necessary in order to make the case for investment. It is also important for understanding more fully the implications of the trade-offs associated with different mitigation options to improve strategic decision-making.

The increasing intensity of some natural hazards, changing demographics and environmental conditions, are placing many of these values at greater risk. This is driving the need to ensure effective management by better understanding which values are most vulnerable, their worth and the risks that threaten them, and identifying who has ownership of these values at an institutional level.

This report provides an analysis of four workshops and supporting research for the project Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale, undertaken for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). These workshops were designed to provide a basis for testing work to date and for identifying key components needed for the development of the final outputs for this project.

The workshops were undertaken in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales and developed in collaboration with our end users. They were designed to explore preferences in decision-making that relate to values at risk and current understandings of risk ownership. We also wanted to test the Draft Values at Risk Map developed by the project as a research tool, to determine the best future use for this output.\ 

}, issn = {225}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Symons, J} } @conference {bnh-2937, title = {Using participatory mapping to harness local knowledge and increase community connectedness in bushfire preparation}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

The increased ease of individuals to create, share and map geographic information combined with the need for timely, relevant and diverse information has resulted in a new disaster management context. Volunteered geographic information (VGI), or geographic information created by private citizens enabled through technologies like social media and web-based mapping, has changed the ways people create and use information for crisis events. Literature in this field has focused on disaster response while largely ignoring prevention and preparedness. Preparing for disasters reduces the likelihood of negative impacts on life and property, but despite strategies to educate communities, preparation remains low and increased preparation engagement is required. This study assesses the application and value of VGI in bushfire risk reduction. It examines VGI as a social practice and not simply a data source by considering the user experience of contributing VGI and the potential for these social activities to increase community connectedness for building disaster resilience. Participatory mapping workshops were held in four bushfire-risk communities in Tasmania. Workshops included a paper-mapping activity and web-based digital mapping. Survey results from 31 participants confirm the process of mapping and contributing local information for bushfire preparation with other community members can contribute to increased social connectedness, understanding of local bushfire risk, and engagement in risk reduction. The social aspect of VGI was engaging for participants and contributed to improved community connectedness. The social quality appeared even more engaging than the specific information shared, and this should be considered in future disaster risk reduction initiatives. Participants reported collaborative maps as effective for collating and sharing community bushfire information with a preference for digital mapping over paper-based methods. Local knowledge and shared information were seen as valuable, but further work is needed to extrapolate findings from the study sample to the broader population.

}, author = {Haworth, B and J Whittaker and Eleanor Bruce} } @article {bnh-2505, title = {Using quantitative influence diagrams to map natural resource managers{\textquoteright} mental models of invasive species management}, journal = {Land Use Policy}, volume = {50}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, chapter = {341}, abstract = {

Despite the significant effect that invasive species have on natural values, the number and extent of invasions continue to rise globally. At least three dominant reasons explain why policy development and implementation can fail: differences in managers{\textquoteright} mental models of invasive species management; cross-agency responsibility; and poor planning and management (i.e., planning{\textendash}implementation gap). We used a case study of cross-agency management of gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus) in Australia to explore the differences in organizational staffs{\textquoteright} mental models of management. The gamba grass invasion in northern Australia is continuing to expand and associated effects are increasing; coordinated action across agencies is needed to manage the expansion. Our aim was to examine how staff would represent their mental models as a diagram that we could compare between individuals and groups. We used cognitive mapping techniques to elicit models of 15 individuals from across 5 organizations, represented as an influence diagram, which shows the interrelationships that define a system. We compiled the individual influence diagrams to create a team model of management that captures the common connections across participants{\textquoteright} diagrams. The team model revealed that education, science, legislation, enforcement and property management plans were perceived to be the most important management tools to control or eradicate gamba grass. The Weed Management Branch was perceived to have the most central role in gamba grass management, while other organizations were perceived to have specific roles according to their core business. Significant positive correlations (i.e., shared perceptions) were observed across half of the participants, indicating that the some participants have shared models that could be used as a starting point for discussing the team model, clarifying roles and responsibilities, and potentially building consensus around a shared model. Dominant opportunities for improvement identified by participants were better use of management tools, namely education and enforcement, better coordination and collaboration between agencies and increased resourcing. Our research demonstrates the value and validity of using influence diagrams to explore managers{\textquoteright} mental models and to create a team model that could serve as a starting point for improved cross-agency natural resource management.\ 

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837715003105}, author = {Katie Moon and Vanessa M Adams} } @article {bnh-3037, title = {Using realistic disaster scenario analysis to understand natural hazard impacts and emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {181}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The study of historical occurrences of natural disasters only provides a very limited view of the full range of risk Australia is exposed to. Catastrophe models have been designed as a tool to extrapolate beyond past experience and as such can help risk practitioners prepare for the types of events yet to be seen.

In this project we propose to apply the same techniques at the core of catastrophe models to design realistic disaster scenarios. The focus is not only on the hazard magnitude to be expected from the rare extreme events simulated but also on the likely impact in terms of building damage, infrastructure disruption and injuries / loss of human lives. To provide a global picture of natural disaster risk in Australia a range of perils and locations are selected through the 3 years of the project. To date the scenarios delivered cover Tropical Cyclones, Earthquake and Heatwave perils while the regions around Adelaide, Melbourne and Southeast Queensland have been at the center of our analysis. In the last year of the project our focus will shift towards flooding events triggered by Tropical Cyclones in Queensland and East Coast Lows in New South Wales.

It is our hope that emergency services can leverage the type of information generated from such scenarios to assess their capabilities to cope with the response and recovery task. Several examples of utilisation to date are listed in this report along with promising leads for the coming year.

}, issn = {181}, author = {Thomas Loridan} } @article {bnh-3423, title = {A value and expectancy based approach to understanding residents{\textquoteright} intended response to a wildfire threat}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {25}, year = {2016}, month = {03/2016}, abstract = {

To motivate residents to evacuate early in case of a wildfire threat, it is important to know what factors underlie their response-related decision-making. The current paper examines the role of the value and expectancy tied to potential outcomes of defending vs evacuating on awareness of a community fire threat. A scenario study among 339 Western Australians revealed that residents intending to leave immediately on awareness of a community fire threat differ from those not intending to leave immediately in both value and expectancy. For one, intended leavers were more likely than those intending to defend their property to have children. Also, the data showed a trend towards intended leavers being less likely to have livestock. Furthermore, intended leavers placed less importance on the survival of their property than those with other expressed intentions. They also reported lower expectancies regarding the likelihood of achieving positive outcomes by defending than those intending to defend or wait and see before deciding what to do. Finally, intended leavers perceived it more likely that they would avoid harm to their pets by evacuating than those intending to defend throughout or wait and see. These findings have important implications for strategies to influence residents{\textquoteright} response-related decision-making.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF15051}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF15051}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {bnh-4080, title = {Values and complexities in assessing strategic-level emergency management effectiveness}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, volume = {24}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, pages = {181-190}, chapter = {181}, abstract = {
Emergency managers working at a strategic level play a pivotal role in managing operational needs as well the needs of political elites engaged in crisis management and\ meaning-making. Evaluating emergency performance has been widely regarded as\ problematic, in part because of various stakeholder interests and because it is so subjective. This paper explores the values of personnel working in emergency management\ at a strategic level as well as the conditions that limit their effectiveness as they\ attempt to align the needs of different stakeholders. The surveys and interviews conducted suggest that what constitutes success is both subjective and contested by different stakeholders. There is a need to establish a broader perspective on what\ constitutes success when evaluating emergency response.
}, doi = {10.1111/1468-5973.12115}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-5973.12115/abstract}, author = {Owen, Christine and Brooks, B and Christopher Bearman and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-2674, title = {We have not lived long enough: Sensemaking and learning from bushfire in Australia}, journal = {Management Learning}, volume = {47}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, chapter = {45}, abstract = {

Organisations increasingly find themselves responding to unprecedented natural disasters that are experienced as complex, unpredictable, and harmful. We examine how organisations make sense and learn from these novel experiences by examining three Australian bushfires. We show how sensemaking and learning occurred during the public inquiries that followed these events, as well as how learning continued afterward with the help of {\textquotedblleft}learning cues.{\textquotedblright} We propose a model that links public inquiry activities to changes in organisational practices. Given the interesting times in which we live, this model has important implications for future research on how new organisational practices can be enacted after public inquiries have concluded their work.

This article is available as a free download.\ 

}, url = {http://mlq.sagepub.com/content/47/1/45.abstract}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-3796, title = {Whole of Government: the Solution to Managing Crises?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Public Administration}, volume = {76}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {251-262}, chapter = {251}, abstract = {

The frequency and severity of natural disasters has placed a clear emphasis on the role of governments in responding to these crises. During the past decade, disaster events have had a significant impact on the relevant communities as well as raising questions regarding the role of government and the bureaucratic coordination of planning and response processes. These events have placed a renewed focus on the ability of governments to plan, prepare, and respond in an effective way to crises. They have also tended to indicate that there remain serious challenges to government coordination and that crises create a unique series of challenges for the public sector. At the heart of understanding how governments respond to crises are notions of bureaucratic coordination. It has been suggested that joined-up or whole of government arrangements may provide an appropriate means in which to approach crisis management. As a result a number of key themes emerge including the nature of crisis management, role of leadership, understanding coordination, impact of organisational culture, and the interactions between individuals and institutions. This paper will consider these issues and provide a review of the relevant literature, to understand the synergies that exist in connected responses to crises.

}, doi = {10.1111/1467-8500.12227}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12227/abstract}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @article {bnh-5099, title = {Wind loads on contemporary Australian housing}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {17}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, abstract = {

Design pressures given in wind loading standards are based on wind tunnel studies conducted during the 1970s to 90s on rectangular hip and gable roofs. However, most contemporary houses have complex hip-roof geometries with a range of plan footprints. Wind tunnel model studies were carried out on representative one- and two-storey houses to determine cladding design and truss hold-down loads. These loads were compared to design loads determined from wind loading standards AS/NZS 1170.2 and AS 4055. AS 4055 gave conservative design loads in most situations, and AS/NZS 1170.2 underestimated the loads near the windward edges and ridge on the roof. AS/NZS 1170.2 does give satisfactory design loads for wall cladding and truss hold down.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13287982.2016.1229375}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13287982.2016.1229375?journalCode=tsen20}, author = {Korah Parackal and Humphreys, M and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @article {bnh-3419, title = {Wind loads on solar panels mounted parallel to pitched roofs, and acting on the underlying roof}, journal = {Wind and Structures}, volume = {22}, year = {2016}, pages = {307-328}, chapter = {307}, abstract = {

This paper describes an investigation of the net wind loads on solar panels and wind loads on the underlying roof surface for panels mounted parallel to pitched roofs of domestic buildings. Typical solar panel array configurations were studied in a wind tunnel and the aerodynamic shape factors on the panels were put in a form appropriate for the Australian/New Zealand Wind Actions Standard AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. The results can also be used to obtain more refined design data on individual panels within an array. They also suggest values for the aerodynamic shape factors on the roof surface under the panels, based on a gust wind speed at roof height, of {\textpm}0.5for wind blowing parallel to the ridge, and\ {\textpm}0.6\ for wind blowing perpendicular to the ridge. The net loads on solar arrays in the middle portion of the roof are larger than those on the same portion of the roof without any solar panels, thus resulting in increased loads on the underlying roof structure.

}, doi = {10.12989/was.2016.22.3.307}, url = {http://koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=KJKHCF_2016_v22n3_307}, author = {CJ Leitch and John Ginger and JD Holmes} } @conference {bnh-2932, title = {Wind speed reduction induced by post-fire vegetation regrowth}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

In the current suite of operational fire spread models, wind speeds measured in the open environment (above the vegetation layer) are modified to represent wind speeds at {\textquoteleft}mid-flame{\textquoteright} height using adjustment factors. In general, these adjustment factors assume constant vertical wind speed profiles throughout the vegetation layer. However, empirical studies have shown that wind speeds beneath canopies can vary significantly with height above ground as well as with forest type and prevailing wind speed. Empirical wind reduction profiles have been developed for a number of different forest types in flat terrain using data collected across Victoria, Australia.


The present research aims to extend these empirical studies to better understand the impacts of topography and post-fire vegetation regrowth on the reduction of wind speeds beneath the canopy. Wind data collected over fire affected regions of rugged terrain in South Eastern Australia are used to analyse wind speed reduction induced by post-fire regrowth and complex topography. A secondary study is used to analyse wind speed reduction caused by Radiata pine plantation in undulating terrain.


Results of this study suggest that empirical wind reduction profiles perform well at the broader landscape-scale, i.e. ridge tops and valley floors. However, more complex topographical features appear to have a compounding affect on wind speed reduction within rugged terrain. Through better understanding of wind speed reduction beneath the canopy across landscapes from mountainous ranges through to flat plains, wind speed reduction models for bushfire spread prediction can be adapted to incorporate the variation observed in vertical wind speed profiles within the vegetation layer.

}, author = {Rachael Quill and Kangmin Moon and Jason J. Sharples and Leesa Sidhu and Thomas Duff and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {bnh-3434, title = {Wind uplift strength capacity variation in roof-to-wall connections of timber-framed houses}, journal = {Journal of Architectural Engineering}, volume = {22}, year = {2016}, month = {02/2016}, abstract = {

The roof-to-wall connection in a house is designed to transfer the uplift and lateral loads during strong winds by providing a continuous load path from the roof to the foundation. The uplift capacity and failure mode of the connection depends on the number and type of fasteners (nails), timber species, type of framing anchor, and constructions defects. This paper presents experimental results that were used to assess the uplift capacity variation of typical roof-to-wall connections. Based on tests with two types of connections (triple grip and truss grip) assembled with two types of timber (radiata pine and spruce pine), nails (hand and gun), and framing anchors (triple grip and universal triple grip), the results show that the variation in timber species, nail, and triple grip type changes the strength and the failure modes of the connection. The strength of the connection was reduced by about 24\% when the timber species was changed from radiata pine to spruce pine and the hand nail to gun nail on the triple grip connection. This study also showed that construction defects in roof-to-wall connections influence the design uplift capacity. If there are two missing nails in the hand-nailed triple grip connection (i.e., one nail on the truss and another one on the top plate) the design uplift capacity reduces by about 40\% of the ideal hand-nailed triple grip connection. This study identified the critical nails and their locations required to mitigate failure of the roof-to-wall triple grip connection subject to wind loading.

}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)AE.1943-5568.0000204$\#$sthash.bMSTwFiH.dpuf}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29AE.1943-5568.0000204}, author = {Satheeskumar, N and David Henderson and John Ginger and Wang, CH} } @conference {bnh-2951, title = {You own the fuel but who owns the fire?}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

The statement {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} was coined during the 1994 Sydney bushfires1 and is attributed to Phil Cheney,2 the then Project Leader for Bushfire Behaviour and Management in CSIRO and a former Director of the National Bushfire Research Unit. Cheney and Sullivan3 say: {\textquoteleft}The landholder effectively owns the fuel and so determines whether the fire can spread and how intense it will be. In other words, the landholder owns the fire.{\textquoteright}

}, author = {Michael Eburn and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @conference {bnh-3167, title = {Accounting for uncertainty in cost benefit analysis: A generalised framework for natural hazard adaptation in the coastal zone}, booktitle = {36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The art and science of water }, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, publisher = {Informit}, organization = {Informit}, abstract = {

The social, economic and environmental vulnerability of communities to natural hazards such as coastal inundation, riverine flooding and water security is increasing through the cumulative effect of different climatic and non-climatic factors. Formulating a basis upon which to make adaptation decisions (whether project or policy related) to strengthen community resilience to natural hazards is challenging, with uncertainty present in many data inputs. Sources of uncertainty include site-specific climatic projections, current economic and social cost-benefit valuation methodologies along with varying community preferences.\ 

Various adaptation {\textquoteright}frameworks{\textquoteright} have been put forward in the published literature. However, practical guidance for decision-makers looking to adapt to the climatic hazards can be unclear, with many different information sets being used, various data sources available, ambiguity on risk ownership and the influence of local political environments. A further challenge faced by stakeholders in following adaptation frameworks is the variability in methodologies and assumption used to define inputs to cost-benefit analysis.\ 

This paper discusses established adaptation frameworks and considers how changing natural hazards could be accounted for in cost-benefit analysis using common methodologies. We construct synthetic damage curves for riverine flooding to illustrate how risk-based damage estimates can be determined from natural hazards in future climate scenarios and compared with the benefits of adaptation. The paper finishes by identifying key challenges and future directions towards a generalized adaptation framework to help build resilience and manage the risks against changing natural hazards.

}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=822034922948079;res=IELENG}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {bnh-1815, title = {AFTER ACTION: To burn or not to burn}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {42-46}, type = {Magazine Article}, url = {http://wildfiremagazine.org/article/to-burn-or-not-to-burn/}, author = {RP Thornton} } @article {bnh-2448, title = {An analysis of building losses and human fatalities from natural disasters: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {152}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Measuring and understanding the impacts of natural hazards in terms of the toll of human life and building damage is a fundamental first step to enabling efficient and strategic risk reduction. By taking a scientific approach to the collection and analysis of accurate information and intelligence, governments, agencies and the wider community are better positioned to reduce disaster risks.

Specifically, the project will provide a longitudinal analysis of the social and environmental circumstances that led to fatalities in order to examine trends over time in terms of exposure and vulnerability.\  These trends will also be interpreted in the context of emerging issues (e.g. ageing population and population shifts, building codes etc), and how these issues might influence vulnerability and exposure trends in the future.\  The project will also provide an analysis of building damage by hazard and state/territory due to natural hazards. The timeframe for both fatalities and building damage will be from 1900 to the present.

The outcomes of this project will inform a wide-range of emergency management and government end users to advise on and update policy, practice and resource allocation.\ 

}, issn = {152}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {bnh-1554, title = {An Analysis of Human Fatalities and Building Losses from Natural Disasters Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual project report for the year 2013/14. The goal of the project is to measure and gain a greater understanding of the impacts of natural hazards in terms of the toll of human life, injuries and building damage in order to provide an evidence base for emergency management policy and practice.

}, author = {Robin van den Honert} } @article {bnh-2217, title = {Animal Emergency Management in Australia}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, abstract = {

This report provides a snapshot of the current status of animal emergency management in Australia. It comprises a compendium of information in the form of brief overviews, online links, and supporting data in appendices. The report was compiled as part of a suite of deliverables from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC{\textquoteright}s research project - Managing Animals in Disasters: Improving preparedness, response, and resilience through individual and organisational collaboration (MAiD).\ \ 

}, author = {Mel Taylor and Greg Eustace and Megan McCarthy} } @article {bnh-4077, title = {Are fire brigades liable for poor decisions?}, journal = {Bulletin (Law Society of South Australia)}, volume = {37}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, pages = {8-11}, chapter = {8}, abstract = {

In 2012, the Supreme Court of Tasmania dismissed a claim alleging that the Tasmania Fire Service was negligent in its response to the 2007 fire in the Hobart Myer store. In the course of his judgment, Blow J said "the financial burden of unfortunate operational decisions should be borne by insurers, or by the uninsured". This article will consider recent case law and policy to show that this policy is reflected in the law in all Australian jurisdictions, including South Australia, with the effect that legal actions against Australian fire brigades are unlikely to succeed.

}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=994973215385568;res=IELHSS}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-3429, title = {Are meteotsunamis an underrated hazard?}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, volume = {373}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, abstract = {

Meteotsunamis are generated by meteorological events, particularly moving pressure disturbances due to squalls, thunderstorms, frontal passages and atmospheric gravity waves. Relatively small initial sea-level perturbations, of the order of a few centimetres, can increase significantly through multi-resonant phenomena to create destructive events through the superposition of different factors. The global occurrence of meteotsunamis and the different resonance phenomena leading to amplification of meteotsunamis are reviewed. Results from idealized numerical modelling and field measurements from southwest Australia are presented to highlight the relative importance of the different processes. It is shown that the main influence that leads to amplification of the initial disturbance is due to wave shoaling and topographic resonance. Although meteotsunamis are not catastrophic to the extent of major seismically induced basin-scale events, the temporal and spatial occurrence of meteotsunamis are higher than those of seismic tsunamis as the atmospheric disturbances responsible for the generation of meteotsunamis are more common. High-energy events occur only for very specific combinations of resonant effects. The rareness of such combinations is perhaps the main reason why destructive meteotsunamis are exceptional and observed only at a limited number of sites globally.

}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0377}, url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2053/20140377}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and E.M.S Wijeratne} } @article {bnh-2504, title = {Are two halves better than one whole? A comparison of the amount and quality of sleep obtained by healthy adult males living on split and consolidated sleep{\textendash}wake schedules}, journal = {Accident Analysis \& Prevention}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, abstract = {

The aim of this study was to compare the quantity/quality of sleep obtained by people living on split and consolidated sleep{\textendash}wake schedules. The study had a between-groups design, with 13 participants in a consolidated condition (all males, mean age of 22.5yr) and 16 participants in a split condition (all males, mean age of 22.6yr). Both conditions employed forced desynchrony protocols with the activity:rest ratio set at 2:1, but the consolidated condition had one sleep{\textendash}wake cycle every 28h (9.33+18.67), while the split condition had one sleep{\textendash}wake cycle every 14h (4.67+9.33). Sleep was assessed using polysomnography. Participants in the split and consolidated conditions obtained 4.0h of sleep per 14h and 7.6h of sleep per 28h, respectively. Some differences between the groups indicated that sleep quality was lower in the split condition than the consolidated condition: the split sleeps had longer sleep onset latency (9.7 vs. 4.3min), more arousals (7.4 vs. 5.7 per hour in bed), and a greater percentage of stage 1 sleep (4.1\% vs. 3.1\%), than the consolidated sleeps. Other differences between the groups indicated that sleep quality was higher in the split condition than the consolidated condition: the split sleeps had a lower percentage of wake after sleep onset sleep (11.7\% vs. 17.6\%), and a greater percentage of slow wave sleep (30.2\% vs. 23.8\%), than the consolidated sleeps. These results indicate that the split schedule was not particularly harmful, and may have actually been beneficial, to sleep. Split work{\textendash}rest schedules can be socially disruptive, but their use may be warranted in work settings where shiftworkers are separated from their normal family/social lives (e.g., fly-in fly-out mining) or where the need for family/social time is secondary to the task (e.g., emergency response to natural disasters).

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457515300932}, author = {Gregory Roach and Xuan Zhou and David Darwent and Anastasi Kosmadopoulos and Drew Dawson and Charli Sargent} } @article {bnh-1893, title = {Assessing Metrics for Estimating Fire Induced Change in the Forest Understorey Structure Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {7}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, pages = {8180-8201}, chapter = {8180}, abstract = {

Quantifying post-fire effects in a forested landscape is important to ascertain burn severity, ecosystem recovery and post-fire hazard assessments and mitigation planning. Reporting of such post-fire effects assumes significance in fire-prone countries such as USA, Australia, Spain, Greece and Portugal where prescribed burns are routinely carried out. This paper describes the use of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to estimate and map change in the forest understorey following a prescribed burn. Eighteen descriptive metrics are derived from bi-temporal TLS which are used to analyse and visualise change in a control and fire-altered plot. Metrics derived are Above Ground Height-based (AGH) percentiles and heights, point count and mean intensity. Metrics such as\ AGH50change,\ mean AGHchange\ and\ point countchange\ are sensitive enough to detect subtle fire-induced change (28\%{\textendash}52\%) whilst observing little or no change in the control plot (0{\textendash}4\%). A qualitative examination with field measurements of the spatial distribution of burnt areas and percentage area burnt also show similar patterns. This study is novel in that it examines the behaviour of TLS metrics for estimating and mapping fire induced change in understorey structure in a single-scan mode with a minimal fixed reference system. Further, the TLS-derived metrics can be used to produce high resolution maps of change in the understorey landscape

}, keywords = {Terrestrial LiDAR; change detection; understorey; prescribed burns; terrestrial laser scanning; single-scan; LiDAR metrics}, doi = {10.3390/rs70608180}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/7/6/8180}, author = {Vaibhav Gupta and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Luke Wallace and Lucas Holden} } @article {bnh-1744, title = {At-risk householders{\textquoteright} responses to potential and actual bushfire threat: An analysis of findings from seven Australian post-bushfire interview studies 2009{\textendash}2014}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {12}, year = {2015}, month = {19/02/2015}, pages = {319-327}, chapter = {319}, abstract = {

Many populated areas of Australia are at high risk of bushfire. All state and territory rural fire services have community bushfire safety education programs providing information and advice to residents about bushfire danger, household risk assessment, and planning and preparing to leave safely or to defend a property assessed as being defensible. Following disastrous bushfires in Victoria in February 2009 resulting in the deaths of 172 civilians and destruction of more than 2000 homes, a programme of interviews with affected residents was conducted. This first study revealed generally low levels of both pre-bushfire perceptions of risk, and planning and preparation by householders. Between 2011 and 2014, six further post-bushfire householder interview studies were conducted. Despite fire agencies{\textquoteright} community education endeavours subsequent to the 2009 fires: (a) appreciable percentages of residents interviewed in these six post-2010 studies did not believe that they were at-risk prior to the fire and had no plan for what to do if threatened; (b) of those with a plan, a minority were well-prepared to implement their plan {\textendash} especially if that plan was to leave; (c) very few householders self-evacuated before the fire on the basis of fire danger weather warnings. The findings and implications are discussed.

}, keywords = {Wildfire; Community safety; Risk perception; Mitigation; Decision making}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.02.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420915000205}, author = {Jim McLennan and Paton, Douglas and Wright, Lyndsey} } @article {bnh-2345, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {141}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the Problem?

In 2010, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) adopted resilience as one of the key guiding principles for making the nation safer. The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (Australian Government 2011) outlines how Australia should aim to improve social and community resilience with the view that resilient communities are in a much better position to withstand adversity and to recover more quickly from extreme events. The recent Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 also uses resilience as a key concept and calls for a people centred, multi-hazard, multi-sectoral approach to disaster risk reduction. As such each tier of government, emergency services and related NGOs have a distinct need to be able assess and monitor the ability to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters as well as a clear baseline condition from which to measure progress.

Why is it Important?

Society has always been susceptible to extreme events. While the occurrence of these events generally cannot be prevented; the risks can often be minimised and the impacts on affected populations and property reduced. For people and communities, the capacity to cope with, adapt to, learn from, and where needed transform behaviour and social structures in response to an event and its aftermath all reduce the impact of the disaster (Maguire and Cartwright, 2008) and can broadly be considered resilience. Improving resilience at various scales and thereby reducing the effects of natural hazards has increasingly become a key goal of governments, organisations and communities within Australia and internationally.

How are we going to solve it?

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index project intends to produce a spatial representation of the current state of disaster resilience across Australia.\  The index will be composed of multiple levels of information that can be reported separately and represented as colour-coded maps where each point will have a corresponding set of information about natural hazard resilience. Spatially explicit capture of data (i.e. in a Geographical Information System) will facilitate seamless integration with other types of information and mapping and allow the use of the project outcomes in the preparation, prevention and recovery spheres.\  Additionally, the index and indicators will be drawn together as a State of Disaster Resilience Report which will interpret resilience at multiple levels and highlight hotspots of high and low elements of natural hazard resilience.

}, issn = {141}, author = {Phil Morley and Melissa Parsons and Graham Marshall and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and James McGregor and Ian Reeve} } @article {bnh-1540, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This project will develop a Natural Disaster Resilience Index for Australia that takes into account Australia{\textquoteright}s unique geographical and climatic context, its governance structures, policy directions, emergency management systems, social-economic landscape, hazard profile, adaptive capacity and community structures.

}, author = {Phil Morley and Melissa Parsons} } @article {bnh-2359, title = {Better use and management of levees: reducing flood risk in a changing climate}, journal = {Environmental Reviews}, volume = {23}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Many nations rely on dykes and levees to mitigate flood risk. However, a myriad of problems has prompted views that levees are ultimately maladaptive and should be used as a measure of last resort. This leads to questions not only about the place of levees in future flood risk management, but also whether anything can be done to reduce their impacts. A detailed review of flood events from Australia, China, the Netherlands, and the USA was used to develop a case study for each country. Case studies present existing levee problems, future flood threats, and national strategies to address them. These were used as a basis to analyse the transferability of adaptive flood approaches. While many countries are attempting to restore floodplain storage, thereby reducing their reliance on levees, others are increasing their investment in levee construction. This review explores factors that affect the transferability of adaptive approaches, including issues, such as problem recognition, affordability, and program delivery. It was found that countries vary in their ability to recognise levee problems, and the level at which decisions are made influences the likelihood of adaptive solutions being adopted. Analysis suggests that federal systems face particular challenges and their capacity to adopt adaptive approaches may be impaired if institutional barriers are not addressed. Regardless of the overall approach to manage flood risk, the experiences of all case study countries offer some broadly applicable lessons for improving the use and management of levees, reducing their adverse impacts, and improving the integration of natural flood mitigation.

}, keywords = {Flood, Policy}, doi = {10.1139/er-2014-0060}, url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/eprint/JuAnSyApuH5P9DqD9WWD/full$\#$.VjrE2LcrKUk}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-3432, title = {Biogeographical variation in the potential effectiveness of prescribed fire in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {42}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, pages = {2234-2245}, chapter = {2234}, abstract = {

Aim

Prescribed fire is a common land management for reducing risks from unplanned fires. However, the universality of such effectiveness remains uncertain due to biogeographical variation in fuel types, climatic influences and fire regimes. Here, we explore biogeographical patterns in the effectiveness of prescribed fire by calculating leverage (the reduction in unplanned area burnt resulting from recent previous area burnt) across south-eastern Australia over a 25\ year period.

Location

The 30 bioregions of south-eastern Australia.

Methods

We quantified leverage in each bioregion from fire records from 1975{\textendash}2009, controlling for variation in annual weather. We also identified potential drivers of variation in leverage by relating the bioregional leverage values to measures of fuel type and growth, climate, and weather extremes.

Results

Leverage was inferred in four bioregions while in the other 26 bioregions no leverage was detected or prescribed fire had the opposite effect (fire-follows-fire). Leverage occurred in the forested eastern section of the study area, where rainfall, fuel load and fire activity is high and fire weather is mild. In all bioregions, weather was a stronger predictor than past-fire extent of area burnt in a particular year.

Main conclusions

Our analysis of leverage shows that the effectiveness of prescribed fire varies regionally in predictable ways, which means that fuel management strategies applied in one region are not necessarily applicable in another. In most bioregions prescribed burning is likely to have very little effect on subsequent extent of unplanned fire, and even in regions where leverage occurs, large areas of treatment are required to substantially reduce the area burned by unplanned fire.

}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.12579}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12579/abstract}, author = {Owen Price and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Hamish Clarke} } @article {bnh-3594, title = {Breakdowns in coordinated decision making at and above the incident management team level: An analysis of three large scale Australian wildfires}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {47}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {16-25}, chapter = {16}, abstract = {

Emergency situations are by their nature difficult to manage and success in such situations is often highly dependent on effective team coordination. Breakdowns in team coordination can lead to significant disruption to an operational response. Breakdowns in coordination were explored in three large-scale bushfires in Australia: the Kilmore East fire, the Wangary fire, and the Canberra Firestorm. Data from these fires were analysed using a top-down and bottom-up qualitative analysis technique. Forty-four breakdowns in coordinated decision making were identified, which yielded 83 disconnects grouped into three main categories: operational, informational and evaluative. Disconnects were specific instances where differences in understanding existed between team members. The reasons why disconnects occurred were largely consistent across the three sets of data. In some cases multiple disconnects occurred in a temporal manner, which suggested some evidence of disconnects creating states that were conducive to the occurrence of further disconnects. In terms of resolution, evaluative disconnects were nearly always resolved however operational and informational disconnects were rarely resolved effectively. The exploratory data analysis and discussion presented here represents the first systematic research to provide information about the reasons why breakdowns occur in emergency management and presents an account of how team processes can act to disrupt coordination and the operational response.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2014.08.009}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687014001483}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Grunwald, J and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @conference {bnh-2079, title = {Bringing hazard and economic modellers together: a spatial platform for damage and losses visualisation - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Muhamman Rahman and Yiqun Chen and Katie Potts and Prasad Bhattacharya and Abbas Rajabifard and Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Mohsen Kalantari} } @article {bnh-2350, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {142}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Annual Report summarises progress to date on Building Best Practice in Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR), with a focus on 2014-2015, but also including the first half of 2014.\  The first 1.5 years has included both scoping and review and the initiation of both pilot and main research.\  A scoping exercise reviewed progress in theory development and across the CC-DRR policy-practice-research nexus.\  In doing so, a parsimonious research narrative emerged intended to build on progress to date but, critically, solve problems and challenges across that nexus.\  The narrative has two main parts to it as follows:

Research to date has included pilot research focused on major stakeholders{\textquoteright} views, including children and youth, households and parents/caregivers, teachers and school personnel, emergency management/DRR professionals.\  With an ultimate research focus squarely on reflecting End User needs, particularly those focused on utilization, many consultations and end user workshopping have been successful in defining a stepwise project and utilisation draft roadmap. \ A first step is to ascertain whether current CC-DRR-focused disaster resilience education (DRE) programs reflect stakeholder needs and reflect theory and promising, good and best practices through developing a CC-DRR Practice and Evaluation Framework. Through an End User/Project Team co-development process, the Framework is then planned to be used to {\textquotedblleft}co-evaluate{\textquotedblright} End User agency DRE programs.

Following this {\textquotedblleft}stakeholder-supported, evidence-based practice{\textquotedblright} step, then DRE programs will be examined for {\textquotedblleft}practice-based evidence{\textquotedblright}, including child learning outcomes, DRR and resilience outcomes and cost effectiveness outcomes.\  Both EBP and PBE steps are couched within an implementation framework, with project research designed to support both policy- and practice-based implementation of CC-DRR/DRE programs.\  The diagram on the next page provides a visual overview of this narrative.\ \  Finally, the report documents the various research and related activities that are intended to support this overall program of research.

}, issn = {142}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers and Katharine Haynes and Eva Alisic and Susan Davie and Marla Petal and Nick Ireland and John Handmer and David Johnston} } @conference {bnh-1564, title = {Building Community Resilience Through Informal Emergency Volunteering Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This paper considers different types of informal volunteers and their contributions to emergency and disaster management. {\textquoteleft}Informal volunteer{\textquoteright} is defined in the context of emergencies and disasters, before literature on citizen responses to emergencies and disasters is reviewed. We examine some of the implications of informal volunteerism for emergency and disaster management, including challenges associated with organisational culture and legal liability. We argue that more adaptive and inclusive models of emergency and disaster management are needed to harness the capacities and resilience that exist within and across communities.

}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @conference {bnh-1568, title = {Building Community Resilience to Natural Hazards in Northern Australia Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = { Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Sparsely settled regions of northern Australia are extremely vulnerable to a range of annual natural hazard impacts, including those from cyclones, flooding and extensive fires. Outside of large towns, the majority of the population is Indigenous with limited access to infrastructure, or readily available institutional support for dealing with bushfires and natural hazards (BNH). Low population densities and poor communications mean that even relatively large communities have almost no formal emergency management capacity.

Natural hazards are being amplified by climate change, with likely more and bigger fires, on-going sea level rise, potentially fewer but more destructive cyclones, and more days of severe heat stress, with consequent risks to economic productivity, infrastructure and human health and wellbeing. Improving community resilience to bushfire and natural hazards in the north is an evident priority and challenge; approaches that might apply in other regions of Australia are unlikely to work in the unique institutional, infrastructural, demographic, ecological and climatic contexts of the northern third of the continent.

This paper explores potential pathways to improve community preparedness, response and recovery capabilities in remote Indigenous communities, and broader implications for public policy and government agencies in northern Australia, with reference to the research portfolio being developed in the northern hub of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.\ 

}, author = {J.S. Gould and Sithole, B and Campbell, A and Glenn James and Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-1553, title = {Building Resilient Communities: Effective Multi-Channel Communication in Disasters Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Building Resilient Communities project. The project draws on key motivation theories to explore the individual drivers of non-compliant behaviour and investigate the legal vulnerabilities or liabilities of the various stakeholders, such as governments and first responders, within the current legal framework.

}, author = {Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-1547, title = {Building Resilient Remote Communities in Northern Australia Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the North Australian Bishfire and Natural Hazard Training project. This project focuses on north Australia, but also include our near neighbours in an effort to build regional resilience.

}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-1944, title = {Building walls around flood problems: The place of levees in Australian flood management}, journal = {Australian Journal of Water Resources}, volume = {19}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, pages = {3-30}, chapter = {3}, abstract = {

Recent Australian floods have resulted in many changes to levee provisions in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales. It is therefore timely to review levee issues and current state arrangements. This paper investigates the use of levees as an adaptation measure to address climate change. It also looks at the performance and reliability of Australian levees, environmental impacts, and the relationship between levees and the development of flood prone land. Despite recent changes, there continues to be much scope for improving floodplain development planning and the assessment and management of levees. Development controls continue to be inadequate and this will fuel future demand for levee protection, while lack of development controls behind levees is likely to lead to greater consequences when levees fail, a scenario more likely due to loss of climate stationarity. While levees provide incremental adaptation, they do not offer a long-term solution. However, transformational adaptation measures used in many places overseas are poorly supported by Australian funding programs. Long-term adjustments need to be planned and funded and appropriate incentives and decision-making structures need to be put in place.

}, keywords = {Climatic changes; Floodplain management; Planning; Levees; Evaluation; Flood damage prevention; Finance; Government policy; Floods; Environmental aspects}, issn = {1324-1583}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.7158/W15-008.2015.19.1}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=283076229770305;res=IELENG}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-2355, title = {Bushfire and natural hazard training for Northern Australia: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {148}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines progress in the North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project.\  The project is part of a program of action research projects based at Charles Darwin University entitled {\textquotedblleft}Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia{\textquotedblright}.\  This program includes both physical and social science research into natural and cultural processes that impact upon the vulnerability and resilience of remote north Australian communities.\ 

The Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia program has a strong focus of action research to encourage and enhance existing nodes of capability and excellence.\  The most prominent of these for fire and emergency management are ranger groups.\  These groups have grown substantially in the last decade and have built a solid base of capacity by ensuring skills, knowledge and qualifications in fields as basic as driving a car to operating GIS.

The North Australian Fire and Natural Hazard Training project aims to provide a {\textquoteleft}next-generation{\textquoteright} training program that builds on the current assets in the north such as the ranger programs and leads to increasing levels of competence and confidence and in its turn, resilience. The project is a response to north Australian stakeholder concerns that existing training is inadequate for their needs.

The project was late to start, but has now completed four new training units and is moving on developing further new units and, where appropriate, adapting existing units to suit the needs of northern Australia.

A key focus of the new training units is the development of a didactic approach to building an understanding of the differing world views about fire and emergency management and the ways these affect preparation and response, particularly to bushfires, but also other natural hazards.

The project has made presentations to the Wellington AFAC/BNHCRC conference, the Research Advisory Forum in Sydney and the North Australian Fire Managers Forum in Cairns in June.

A workshop for stakeholders was held in May in Darwin and a further presentation was made at a workshop of the {\textquotedblleft}Building Community Resilience in Northern Australia{\textquotedblright} in Ngukurr in June.\ 

}, issn = {148}, author = {Sutton, S} } @conference {bnh-2091, title = {A bushfire evacuation planning service utilising multiple simulation systems - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Kent Steer and Anton Beloglazov and Ermyas Abebe and Mahathir Almashor} } @article {bnh-1865, title = {Candidate Interoperability Needs Amongst Response \& Recovery Groups}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, abstract = {

This report is a scoping study of the challenges of individual and inter-operational capability needs of first response, support and recovery agencies in a context of collaborative response to complex emergencies and disaster events.\  \ 

Effective emergency and disaster management requires multiple agencies and organisations from all levels of government and the private sector to work together.\  Interoperability between these entities is essential for efficient and effective service delivery.\  This report examines a range of options for defining interoperability needs among first response groups and those whose role is at a secondary and tertiary level.\  \ \ 

The report begins by detailing the way in which interoperability is currently defined and evidence of the variability in the way in which the term is interpreted.\  It follows with an examination of the various ways in which emergency and disaster management agencies have attempted to achieve interoperability. \ This includes a review of the Department of Homeland Security{\textquoteright}s Interoperability Continuum and the way in which it is used to identify capability needs and gaps in US disaster response, and the Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles Programme{\textquoteright}s Joint Decision Model which aims to assist the decision making process between UK fire, police and ambulance services to improve interoperability during the emergency response phase. \ It then considers two international case studies: one where interoperability{\textquoteright} may have been more absent than present; the other a relative success.\  Finally, the report concludes with a discussion of suggested challenges for examining interoperability needs and presents conceptual frameworks and trigger questions to guide examination of solutions grounded in the needs of end-users.\ \ 

}, author = {Paul Barnes} } @article {bnh-1529, title = {Capability Needs for Emergency and Disaster Management Organisations Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This project combines approaches from futures thinking and scenario planning with all-hazards/all-agencies and consequence management frameworks to develop processes for engaging public and private sector organisations in thinking about how to carry out capability needs assessments and integration for near term and future disasters.

}, author = {Paul Barnes} } @article {bnh-1663, title = {Capturing community experiences: South Australian bushfires January 2014}, number = {052}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Lightning strikes in January 2014 caused a number of significant bushfire events in South Australia that continued into February. Fires in and around Eden Valley, Bangor and Rockleigh provided an opportunity to conduct research into the bushfire risk perceptions, decision-making processes and behaviour of residents across three very different fire events involving a rapid-onset fire (Eden Valley), a long-campaign fire (Bangor), and repeat fire incidents (Rockleigh).

During April and May 2014, 171 residents in affected communities were interviewed and 606 South Australians participated in a complementary online (statewide) survey. Approximately one in two (49\%) survey respondents considered their residential area to have been impacted by fire, and almost one in five (17\%) indicated that they were directly impacted by the fires, and one in five (20\%) experienced fire threat without property damage. The aim of the research was to inform SA Country Fire Service about community members{\textquoteright} experiences of bushfires in South Australia, with particular attention to a range of research questions grouped under the three themes discussed below. The nature of the study has allowed us to provide observations and insights on each one of these themes. However, it should be noted that cause and effect relationships between the factors should not be inferred.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-2-4}, issn = {052}, author = {Trigg, Josh and Rainbird, Sophia and Kirrilly Thompson and Christopher Bearman and Wright, Lyndsey and Jim McLennan} } @article {bnh-1612, title = {Capturing community members{\textquoteright} bushfire experiences following the 12 January 2014 Parkerville (WA) fire: supplementary online survey}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This is the companion volume for the report entitled Capturing community members{\textquoteright} bushfire experiences: Interviews with residents following the 12 January 2014 Parkerville (WA) Fire prepared by Professor Jim McLennan. The current document presents findings from the online survey developed to complement the community interviews undertaken and detailed by Professor McLennan in that report.

Both pieces of work were undertaken as part of the study conducted by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC for the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) of Western Australia following the bushfire in the Parkerville area on 12 January 2014.

The purpose of that study was to assist DFES to learn as much as possible about residents{\textquoteright} prior understandings of bushfire safety and risk, and their experiences during the fires, thus contributing to improved community bushfire safety in the future. The reader is referred to the aforementioned report for an overview of the circumstances of that fire and background to the study.

The online survey was included in the broader study to enable those who were not at home at the time the interview teams were in the field and unable to avail themselves of the opportunity to participate in the study though a telephone interview to have their experiences recorded and considered. The online survey was open to all residents in the Shire of Mundaring from May to early July 2014.

Despite wide promotion of the survey, the number of respondents who ultimately completed the questionnaire (58) was small. This means that the results should be used carefully and should be seen as a glimpse of the views of a self-selected group of Shire of Mundaring residents who are particularly interested in bushfire-related matters.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-1-7}, author = {Wright, Lyndsey and Jim McLennan} } @article {bnh-1611, title = {Capturing community members{\textquoteright} bushfire experiences: interviews with residents following the 12 January 2014 Parkerville (WA) fire}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

On Sunday 12 January 2014, a bushfire destroyed 57 homes across three Perth Hills localities: Parkerville, Stoneville and Mount Helena. Following the fire, Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) senior management requested the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) to coordinate a post-bushfire interview survey of residents in the bushfire-affected area, in collaboration with DFES Community Engagement staff. The purpose was to assist the DFES to learn as much as possible about residents{\textquoteright} prior understandings of bushfire safety and risk, and their experiences during the fires, thus contributing to improved community bushfire safety in the future. Over 3 days (2{\textendash}4 April 2014), five BNHCRC{\textendash}DFES interview teams visited properties in and near the fire-scar area, resulting in interviews with 91 households. This report summarises findings from these interviews. Where appropriate, the findings have been compared with those from previous Bushfire CRC post-bushfire interview studies conducted following fires in Victoria (2009), Western Australia (2011); Tasmania (2013) and NSW (2013). A summary of the major findings from these six previous Bushfire CRC post-bushfire interview studies is in an appendix (Appendix F). No attempt has been made to relate the findings to recent inquiries and reviews conducted into Western Australian bushfires, this being beyond the scope of the present study. Some suggestions about future community bushfire safety endeavours are offered for consideration

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-0-0}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {bnh-1845, title = {Carbon loss from planned fires in southeastern Australian dry Eucalyptus forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {336}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, pages = {91-98}, chapter = {91}, abstract = {

This study reports the immediate impact of planned fires on carbon distribution and storage in six forest types of south-eastern Australia. Aboveground carbon (AGC) ranged from 56 to 183\ Mg\ C\ ha-1\ where between 4 and 11\ Mg\ ha-1\ (or 6\% of AGC) was lost in planned fire. Between 3.6 and 5\ Mg\ C\ ha-1\ was redistributed within the forest to the soil surface as char and partly combusted organic matter. Most carbon was lost from litter while near surface vegetation and dead trees either standing or lying were the next largest C loss groups. Overstorey tree biomass (Mg\ C\ ha-1) was a significant predictor of carbon loss in major fuel categories, explaining 45\% of total carbon loss. The loss of coarse woody debris (CWD, \%) was strongly correlated with losses in litter (\%,\ R2\ =\ 0.44) and with fireline intensity (\%,\ R2\ =\ 0.38).

These C loss estimates in planned fire establish an empirical basis for further modeling to identify management options for mitigating fire-induced C losses from SE Australian\ Eucalyptus\ forests.

}, keywords = {Forest productivity; Coarse woody debris; Overstorey; Understorey; Char; Fuels}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2014.10.018}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112714006008}, author = {Volkova, Liubov and Weston, Chris} } @article {bnh-2566, title = {The challenges of managing animals and their owners in disasters: perspectives of Australian response organisations and stakeholders}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This paper documents the findings of a comprehensive national survey of Australian response organisations and other relevant stakeholders involved in the management of animals and their owners in emergencies and disasters. The aim of the study was to identify and prioritise the challenges encountered by these organisations in the management of animals and animal owners. In addition, attitudes towards organisational responsibility for the management of animals in emergencies and awareness of relevant emergency response and recovery arrangements were sought.\ 
A sample of 98 respondents representing 68 organisations from all Australian states and territories were surveyed. The main challenges identified in the management of animals and their owners were in the logistics of animal management (personnel and equipment), the physical management and rescue of animals, interactions with owners during emergency response, and post-emergency impacts on the management of animals and their owners (distress and emotional issues). As would be expected, different categories of organisations and stakeholders experienced different challenges. Issues were reported across all categories irrespective of their formally-assigned roles and responsibilities in this area.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-07}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy and Penny Burns and Kirrilly Thompson and Bradley P Smith and Greg Eustace} } @conference {bnh-1617, title = {Challenges of Measuring Emergency Management Performance Under Adversity: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Senior emergency management personnel face more extreme events and more complex challenges than their predecessors and these challenges will increase in the future. One of the key challenges that senior emergency managers face is the evaluation of operational performance in the context of increasing scrutiny from media, legal and political spheres. To investigate this issue we collected survey data from 38 senior emergency management leaders who operate at the strategic level (above the local IMT) as part of a broader survey examining the challenges of strategic emergency management (funded by the Bushfire CRC, Owen et al., 2013). Participants reported concerns that operational performance is currently judged by external sources (such as the media) in an often post- hoc and arbitrary manner and is dependent on whether or not what happened in the end was perceived as a good outcome. Reliance on the outcome of a complex event is problematic because there is not an absolute correlation between the process of managing an emergency and the outcome. Bad outcomes can occur despite good operational processes and good outcomes can occur despite bad operational processes. For example, all the best processes might have been in place and performed well but the outcome was bad because of unexpected climatic conditions, such as a wind change. This paper will outline the views of senior leaders in emergency management about what needs to be taken into account when measuring operational performance.

}, author = {Owen, Christine and Brooks, B and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-1546, title = {Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the CC-DRR project. Through a scoping and review exercise, and through discussions within the team, including with our end users, we have been developing a {\textquotedblleft}research narrative{\textquotedblright}. That narrative then is to be the basis for a program of research including both pilot and main study research projects. Each study is intended to contribute to the narrative. Main study projects have not yet been finalised, but a summary of projects being planned to date are provided in this report.

}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-1657, title = {Children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of bushfire emergency response}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {10/03/2015}, pages = {179-189}, chapter = {179}, abstract = {

In the aftermath of the Black Saturday bushfire disaster, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission recommended that bushfire education be made a formal part of the Australian national curriculum. Crucially, the success of any hazards education program depends on the degree to which the learner{\textquoteright}s existing knowledge and experience is accommodated in the education process. Yet accommodating children{\textquoteright}s knowledge in bushfire education is hampered by a lack of research on how children conceptualise bushfire hazards. To address this gap, this paper presents a detailed qualitative analysis of children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of bushfire hazards with a specific focus on emergency response. Across four bushfire-prone locations in south-eastern Australia, 26 focus group interviews were conducted with 87 children aged between 8 and 12 years. To better understand the construction of children{\textquoteright}s knowledge, individual interviews were also conducted with 37 parents. Through their engagement in the research process, children demonstrated a capacity for engaging in serious discussions about bushfire hazards and although their knowledge was often characterised by gaps and misconceptions, they also demonstrated a capacity for understanding the fundamental principles of emergency response, particularly when they had been involved in bushfire planning within their household.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, hazards education, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13153}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF13153}, author = {Briony Towers} } @book {bnh-7485, title = {Co-Building with Bamboo}, year = {2015}, publisher = {Grass giants}, organization = {Grass giants}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our new book celebrating 10 years of building with bamboo. Co-building is the process of building something together with community members who have no stake in the outcome. This book shows how we have evolved our design and construction approach over the past 10 years. Our co-building with bamboo included over\ 500 participants\ in\ 35 workshops\ building\ 23 structures.

}, keywords = {bamboo, community, construction, recovery}, issn = {978-0-9944338-0-0}, url = {https://www.giantgrassdesign.com/store/p1/co-building_with_bamboo.html}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Munir Vahanvati} } @conference {bnh-2101, title = {Combining hydrologic and hydraulic models for real time flood forecasting - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-2353, title = {Community understanding of the tsunami risk and warnings systems in Australia: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {146}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Purpose

This report provides a review of the initial stages of research into Community Understanding of the Tsunami Risk and Warnings Systems in Australian Communities. The need for this work derives from the fact that the Australian coastline faces some 8,000km of active tectonic plate boundary capable of generating tsunami that could reach Australia in 2-4 hours. Recognition of this risk led to the development of the Australian Tsunami Warning System (ATWS).

The exposure of coastal areas and short lead times makes it important that members of the communities exposed to tsunami threat accept their risk and act on this to increase their response capability. The latter includes knowing of the ATWS, being able to receive warnings, and being able to respond (rather than having to react) to warnings in timely and effective ways. This project is researching these aspects of community response capability.

Procedure

This project has adopted a qualitative approach (thematic analysis) to understand people{\textquoteright}s tsunami risk and warnings beliefs. Community members living in coastal areas are currently being interviewed. The interviews are asking for people{\textquoteright}s views on:

Results

Initial interviews in communities in NSW, Queensland, Tasmania and WA identified diverse views on what people should be warned of, and how to warn them. Views on what people should be warned of included long term issues (e.g., problems evacuating, long term impact on infrastructure, resourcing etc.) and immediate actions (e.g., knowing one{\textquoteright}s evacuation route). A need to adapt warnings to specific geographical localities and to enhance community readiness was identified.

Following discussions with end-user agencies, NSW SES and Surf Life Saving Australia/Australian Tsunami Advisory Group, the project has been refocused to more clearly examine how interaction between community members and end-user agencies influences tsunami risk and warning beliefs. The results of this work will be used to inform the development and implementation of a community engagement strategy that can be used by end-user agencies to develop community warning and response strategies. \ 

}, issn = {146}, author = {Paton, Douglas and David Johnston} } @article {bnh-2103, title = {Community-led bushfire preparedness in action: The case of Be Ready Warrandyte}, number = {113}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents key findings from a case study of Be Ready Warrandyte (BRW): a community-led bushfire preparedness project that was undertaken by the Warrandyte Community Association between May 2012 and June 2015. The project was described as:

{\textquotedblleft}A self-help, community-led project to develop tools and resources to help our community to be safer and more able to deal with the risk of bushfires. The project{\textquoteright}s goal is to have more Warrandyte households with effective bushfire plans{\textquotedblright}.\ 

Be Ready Warrandyte is notable for being an award-winning, community-led preparedness project, and for involving a high degree of collaboration between local community volunteers, local government and the Country Fire Authority (CFA), all of which were represented on its committee of management. It is an example of a key type of non-traditional emergency volunteering: extending volunteerism.

In the context of the Out of Uniform project, non-traditional emergency volunteering is any type of volunteering that is: 1) focused on emergency prevention, preparedness, response, or recovery, and; 2) involves volunteers who are not traditional emergency volunteers affiliated with established emergency management organisations (EMOs).

Extending volunteerism occurs when a voluntary organisation that does not have an emergency or disaster management role extends its activities into that area in response to an event or an increase in risk awareness [2]. This is the case for the Warrandyte Community Association (WCA) whose primary goal is to {\textquotedblleft}promote community life{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}defend the character and heritage of the township{\textquotedblright}\ 

The goal of this case study was to better understand the key characteristics, processes, activities and outcomes of the Be Ready Warrandyte project. It was not intended as a project evaluation. It did not seek to objectively assess the project{\textquoteright}s success. Rather, it sought to learn from the experiences and perspectives of those involved in the project. It therefore provides insights into the potential opportunities and challenges for undertaking community-led initiatives through {\textquoteleft}extending volunteerism{\textquoteright} in emergency preparedness that are suggested by the {\textquoteleft}on-the-ground{\textquoteright} experiences of Be Ready Warrandyte participants.

The findings will be valuable for emergency management organisations that are moving towards more localised, community-based and partnership approaches to community safety and engagement.

}, issn = {113}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-2313, title = {Connecting communities and resilience: A multi{\textendash}hazard study of preparedness, response and recovery communications: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {128}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Recent natural hazard events in Australia and around the world provide constant reminders of why people should prepare and how people should behave. Yet, industry experiences and research shows that community members still fail to comply with instructions issued by government agencies [1]. Particularly in the response and recovery phases of a natural disaster, individuals ignore official emergency instructions in favour of community-generated warnings. While non-compliant behaviour is often not in the best interest of the individual or community, non-compliance is not necessarily malicious or even intentional. However, individuals who fail to comply with instructions issued during natural hazards significantly impede the emergency response because they (a) divert resources to compliance enforcement, (b) risk the lives of emergency service workers who may later be required to assist them, and (c) confuse the core safety message or instruction. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the legal ramifications of non-compliance from perspectives of individuals, agencies, or corporations.

This year the Project team have undertaken two work packages; (1) social media pilot and (2) community focus groups on message comprehension. The social media pilot sought to examine decision-making, risk communication, and in particular the existing approach for official messages during response and recovery of natural disaster, via Twitter. The work package involved analysing around 50,000 Tweets exchanged about Tropical Cyclone Marcia, from 18 to 21 February inclusive. Results show that emergency messages include instructions and updates that may lack precision and assume community knowledge. In addition, community members demonstrate affect, overconfidence, and familiarity biases, and demonstrate limited appetite for irresponsibility displayed by journalists or other community members.\  The findings of this study suggest the following opportunities exist for emergency services organisations; (1) add precision to updates and instructions, (2) filter out noise and introduce $\#$official as a hashtag to signal and draw attention to important messages, (3) integrate stories that personalise risk and enhance self-efficacy to reflect trends in community tweets, (4) take advantages of affect and engage in preparation messages during the recovery phase, and (5) ground-truth to share knowledge about event and impact to add accuracy and overcome familiarity bias for the next disaster. The community focus groups, while still ongoing, were conducted to examine community comprehension of emergency warning messages. This qualitative work builds on research conducted by end-user organisations and addresses issues raised by the National Review of Warnings And Information, which was endorsed in May 2015. As at June 30, 2015, five focus groups had been conducted in Brisbane and Hervey Bay in Queensland, and the Dandenongs in Victoria. In July 2015, three focus groups will be conducted in Melbourne, Victoria, and Kempsey, New South Wales. Findings will be reported in the next quarterly reporting period.

}, issn = {128}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sharon Christensen and Bill Duncan and Amanda Stickley and Paula Dootson} } @article {bnh-3453, title = {Contemporary fire regime risks to key ecological assets and processes in north Australian savannas}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {857-870}, chapter = {857}, abstract = {

Despite the intact appearance of relatively unmodified north Australian savannas, mounting evidence indicates that contemporary fire regimes characterised by frequent, extensive and severe late dry season wildfires are having deleterious effects on a range of regional water, soil erosion, biodiversity conservation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions values. For the high rainfall (\>1000\ mm year{\textendash}1) savannas (426\ 000\ km2), we assessed the spatial effects of contemporary fire regimes within the context of ecosystem response models and three plausible alternative fire management scenarios on ecosystem attributes. Over the 2008{\textendash}12 assessment period, mean annual fire frequency (0.53) comprised mostly late dry season fires. Although spatially variable, contemporary fire regimes resulted in substantial GHG emissions, hill slope erosion and suspended sediment transport, a slight decline in carbon biomass and slight positive effects on fire-vulnerable vegetation. Based on available climate change models and strategic fire management practice, we show that, relative to business-as-usual, improved fire management involving strategic prescribed burning results in substantial benefits to most ecosystem attributes, including under enhanced climate change conditions, whereas in the absence of improved fire management, climate change results in substantially worse outcomes.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF14197}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF14197}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Meyer, C.P. (Mick)} } @article {bnh-2387, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {151}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The seismic risk posed by earthquakes to buildings in our major cities in Australia is significant with the world insurance market rating a modest magnitude 6 earthquake occurring in Sydney to be in their world{\textquoteright}s top 10 of financial risks.\  A major reason for this is that Australia has not designed buildings for earthquake-induced forces until 1995 so that a large portion of our building stock is seismically vulnerable.\  As demonstrated in Christchurch New Zealand in 2010-11, a magnitude 6 earthquake can have a devastating impact on a city and country (damage build estimated at ~ 20\% national GDP!) even though buildings have been designed for earthquakes for many decades.

This project will sift through the data that is available from the Christchurch experience to establish what earthquake retrofit techniques worked and what didn{\textquoteright}t as a starting point in developing a {\textquoteleft}menu{\textquoteright} of economically feasible seismic retrofit techniques that could be used in Australian cities.\  This information will then be fed into a {\textquoteleft}decision support tool{\textquoteright} being developed in project A7 that will be used by end users to develop consistent national policies for the application of seismic design of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings.

}, issn = {151}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-1534, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This project will sift through the data that is available from the Christchurch experience to establish what earthquake retrofit techniques worked and what didn{\textquoteright}t as a starting point in developing a {\textquoteleft}menu{\textquoteright} of economically feasible seismic retrofit techniques that could be used in Australian cities.

}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-2347, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {139}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011 and 2013, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. The flood events also resulted in significant logistics for emergency management and disruption to communities. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. The vulnerability of existing building stock contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

To date, the project within the BNHCRC has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical building types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. In the following years of the project appropriate strategies will be costed for key building types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Vulnerability of predominant building types will be assessed along with the factors affecting vulnerability. The information on vulnerability is fundamental to evaluate mitigation strategies and to examine the opportunities for reducing the vulnerability. The research will also entail experimental testing of preferred material types to ascertain their resilience to flood water exposure. Cost benefit analysis will be conducted to find optimal mitigation strategies for selected building types located within a range of catchment types.

This project is investigating methods for upgrading existing housing stock in floodplains to increase their resilience in future flood events. It is important that the latest research and economically optimum upgrading solutions are applied to existing houses to optimise the use of finite mitigation resources. The project will provide an evidence base to inform decision making by governments and property owners to reduce flood risk. The risk mitigation achieved will decrease human suffering, improve safety and ensure amenity for communities.

}, issn = {139}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-2407, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings}, year = {2015}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-4146, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings: literature review of mitigation strategies}, number = {332}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project titled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC, 2015). The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. Although the vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. Therefore, the existing vulnerable buildings contribute disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

As a first step to achieving this goal within this project a building schema has been developed to categorise the Australian residential building stock (Maqsood et al. 2015). The next step is to conduct a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally and this report presents the findings of this research component. The review will help to evaluate the strategies that suit Australian building types and typical catchment behaviours and hence may be adopted in Australia. Strategies have been developed for different types of floods and the adoption of a particular strategy depends upon the characteristics of flood hazard and building stock along with any mitigation incentives and associated cost benefit analysis. This report discusses the commonly used strategies and summarises the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. The review categorises mitigation strategies into the following categories:

Elevation is traditionally considered to be an easier and effective strategy and is the one which generally result in incentives such as a reduction in insurance premiums (Bartzis, 2013). However it becomes difficult to execute for slab-on-grade structures. Relocation is the surest way to eliminate flood risk if relocated outside the floodplain but, as in the case of elevation, it becomes more difficult to implement for heavier and larger structures. Dry floodproofing and flood barriers are efficient only in shallow low velocity hazard areas and are generally not recommended in deep fast flowing waters. Wet floodproofing is suitable in low to moderate depths of water with a inundation duration of not more than a day.

In future years (2015-2019) of this project, each mitigation strategy will be evaluated and costed through engagement of professional quantity surveyors. Strength degradation of common building components (materials, structural systems) due to wetting and subsequent drying will be assessed through experimental testing. Cost benefit analyses will be conducted to determine optimum retrofit strategies for selected residential building types within a range of catchment behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and an optimal solution for different cases of building and catchment types.

}, issn = {332}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-1537, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Flood Prone Buildings Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This annual report has been completed as a component of the Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Flood Prone Buildings project.\ 

}, author = {Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner and Mark Edwards and Dale, K} } @article {bnh-2397, title = {Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Modelling}, year = {2015}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-2388, title = {A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises}, journal = {Futures}, volume = {73}, year = {2015}, month = {03/10/2015}, chapter = {176}, abstract = {

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business planning and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining {\textquoteleft}success{\textquoteright} for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of {\textquoteleft}environmental scenarios{\textquoteright}, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.\ 

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715001329}, author = {Josh Wodak and Timothy Neale} } @conference {bnh-2073, title = {Culturally appropriate mapping tools for informing two-way fire management planning in remote indigenous north Australian communities - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Yates, Cameron P.} } @article {bnh-2595, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance: Part two decision making research stream}, number = {70}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document forms Part two in a series of reports on decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance. It should be read in conjunction with:

All parts can be located at www.bnhcrc.com.au, under the Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex, time constrained and multi-team environments project page.

This research stream investigates strategic decision-making during emergency events.\  It has a specific focus on how coordination occurs at regional and state levels of emergency management (EM), although does not exclude the interactions between these levels and the IMT.\  The research will apply the following sequence:

  1. To understand and interpret decision-making processes in emergency management in Australia and New Zealand (outlined in this report);
  1. Identify opportunities to improve decision-making (outlined in this report) and,
  1. To test heuristics (cognitive rules of thumb) and other strategies to improve decision making in controlled environments to assess their validity and reliability (future research activity).

To support these objectives, this section of the report is structured in the following way. First we examine the literature relevant to this specific {\textquoteleft}class{\textquoteright} of decisions made at Regional and State levels, noting that more than one type of decision-making process is applied. We then look at different decision models that are used in EM and critique them with respect to the literature.\  We then explore some of the limitations of these models and identify the opportunities for enhancement. Finally, we propose a strategy for the next stage of the research project. We suggest using a human-centred design process and an assessment of end-user organisation{\textquoteright}s maturity to appropriately tailor a tool to the organisation.\  Embedded within the design process will be the testing protocol to assess validity and reliability of the tool.\ 

}, issn = {70}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-2596, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance: Part three team performance monitoring research stream}, number = {71}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document forms Part three in a series of reports on decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance. It should be read in conjunction with:

All parts can be located at www.bnhcrc.com.au, under the Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex, time constrained and multi-team environments project page.

The team performance monitoring research stream seeks to develop enhanced methods for strategic level emergency managers (SEMs) to manage teams they are responsible for.\  To provide the background and context for this set of activities this report seeks to provide answers to the following questions

}, issn = {71}, author = {Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-2597, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance: Part four organisational performance research stream}, number = {72}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document forms Part four in a series of reports on decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance. It should be read in conjunction with:

All parts can be located at www.bnhcrc.com.au, under the Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex, time constrained and multi-team environments project page.

The purpose of this stream of the research is to investigate the question: how do organisations systematically review and evaluate their past performance and how do monitor any changes based on any insights that have been learned?

Part of the challenge is that, there is no one size fits all when it comes to evaluating organisational performance in emergency management (Boin and{\textquoteright}t Hart, 2010). Moreover while it is well established that learning lessons from disasters and crises is becoming increasingly important (Borell \& Eriksson, 2008; Brower, Jeong, \& Dilling, 2009), recording, storing and sharing lessons identified, does not necessarily infer that anything has in fact or will subsequently be learned (Rostis, 2007; Deverell, E. \& Hans{\'e}n, 2009). Typically performance is judged post-hoc and through public inquiry or in the media which does not necessarily have the intention of improving the effectiveness of emergency management systems (Elliott \& McGuinness 2002; Owen, Bosomworth \& Curnin, 2014).

}, issn = {72}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-2594, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance: Part One Executive Summary}, number = {69}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This research report is an interim report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Practical Decision Tools for Improved Decision-Making in Complex Situations. The project plan for this research includes three main research streams: Decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance. The initial work in the project has identified that the three research streams in the project are best treated as interrelated but distinct bodies of work.

For ease, these have been published as separate documents.

All parts can be located at www.bnhcrc.com.au, under the Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex, time constrained and multi-team environments project page.

Each of the research streams has been coordinated by one of the principal researchers in the project and each research stream is thus considered discretely in this report.\  While we have chosen to present the research streams individually here there is a large degree of interrelation between the streams, particularly between the team monitoring and organisational performance streams; and both are informed by the decision-making tranche of work. The interdependence of these streams will be emphasized in later phases of the research project.\ \ 

}, issn = {69}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Keith Fitzgerald and Grunwald, J and Rainbird, Sophia} } @conference {bnh-2089, title = {A decision support framework for multi-hazard mitigation planning - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and Charles Newland and Aaron Zecchin and Holger Maier and Roel Vanhout and Ed Pikusa and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-2509, title = {Defining Sufficient Household Preparedness for Active Wildfire Defense: Toward an Australian Baseline}, journal = {Natural Hazards Review}, volume = {10}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, abstract = {

This study begins to offer a tangible definition and operationalization of the required level of preparedness for safely staying and defending a property by householders in Australian wildfires. A consultative workshop was conducted with a taskforce of national experts from Australia seeking to obtain consensus on the critical nature of a wide-ranging list of preparatory actions. An innovative methodology was employed to account for the potential relationship between the desired levels of preparedness and Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs), the indicator of fire weather intensity, as was long suggested by Australian fire agencies. The resultant model includes a checklist of critical preparatory actions for each FDR that portrays a minimum and essential preparatory condition to guide an individual{\textquoteright}s decision to stay and defend under the given fire condition. While the definition presented here does not provide a unique solution to ensure the safety of active defense under all household scenarios, it delivers a robust and comprehensive model to be applied to an average Australian residence while providing a baseline for further development of local-specific and household-specific preparedness standards. The model may also serve as a useful starting point for agencies in other countries to undertake a similar exercise.

}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000211}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @article {bnh-2395, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour}, year = {2015}, author = {Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-2340, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {133}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire behavior models that predict the progression of bushfires are becoming increasingly important in management.\  Most existing models have been developed based on data and observations of fires burning under relatively mild conditions.\  If the models are to be relied upon for fires that occur under extreme weather conditions (where fires are fast moving and more intense), these conditions must also be considered in their design.

There is increasing evidence that there are particular fire phenomena that occur only in extreme fire conditions.\  These include fire tornados, atmospheric coupling, ember storms and vorticity driven lateral spread.\  Research into such phenomena is limited, there is still much to learn about when they occur and what their effect is on fire behavior.\  Currently there are no operational fire spread models that can accommodate these important effects. To account for these phenomena, it is first necessary to describe them and the conditions under which they occur, including fuel conditions, surface weather and atmospheric profiles.

This project is designed to build on our knowledge of the unique features of extreme fires by a) Collating observations of extreme fires that have occurred in Australia in recent years, b) Analysing fire phenomena in conjunction with accessory information (ie. Weather, fuel and topography) and c) Developing mathematical relationships to describe important fire phenomena.

}, issn = {133}, author = {Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @conference {bnh-2095, title = {Developing a targeted resilience intervention for the primary prevention of PTSD - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Petra Skeffington and Clare Rees and Trevor Mazzucchelli and Robert Kane} } @article {bnh-2405, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels}, year = {2015}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and Ivica Janekovic and Yasha Hetzel} } @article {bnh-2332, title = {Developing better predictions for extreme water levels: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {121}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study is to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedanceexceedance probabilities (including the action of surface gravity waves) around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms.

After the initial delays in personnel recruitment the project has made quite good progress with the progress made in all different components of the project.\  When the project proposal was written we did not expect that we will be able to run a model which incorporated surface gravity waves.\  We now have developed and tested a coupled wave and storm surge model which yield very good results.\  Additional work needs to be done but we are very excited to have this tool which will be first time a such a coupled model has been used in Australia.\  We have successful simulated continental shelf waves and TC Alby with the hydrodynamic models with which are in agreement with the measurements.\  This gives us confidence to extend the model to other parts of Australia.\  Perhaps the most impact has been made in the area of meteotsunamis.\  As the only research group undertaking such research in Australia (and only a few globally) the ship accident in Fremantle highlighted the importance of meteotsunamis as a natural coastal hazard.\  This resulted in a lot of interest locally as well as in the national press and also leading to publications.

}, issn = {121}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @conference {bnh-2090, title = {Developing enterprise opportunities and resilience in remote north Australian communities - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Yates, Cameron P. and Christine Michael and Glenn James} } @article {bnh-2401, title = {Disaster landscape attribution, active fire detection and hazard mapping}, year = {2015}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-2331, title = {Disaster landscape attribution: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {120}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project brings together researchers from around the world including RMIT, the German Aerospace Agency DLR, CSIRO, the University of Twente in the Netherlands and the Bureau of Meteorology. The project will attribute fire landscapes using the latest satellite based thermal earth observation systems for active fire surveillance. Structure from Motion (SfM), Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and hyperspectral technologies and techniques will also be used for quantifying and mapping changes in the landscape before, and after, a fire event. This report provides a background to the project and discusses the key research questions being asked, and how these can help support end user operations. The methodology used to address each of the research questions is outlined, and key achievements across the last year are described. The report concludes with activities planned for the year ahead and a list of currently integrated project members.

Highlights of 2014-2015 have included:

}, issn = {120}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-1550, title = {Disaster Landscape Attribution: Fire Surveillance and Hazard Mapping, Data Scaling and Validation Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Disaster Landscape Attribution project. This report provides a background to the project and discusses the key research questions being\ asked, and how these can help support end user operations. The methodology used to address\ each of the research questions is outlined, and achievements to date are described.

}, author = {Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-2084, title = {Disaster management: building resilient systems to aid recovery - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Deborah Bunker and Tony Sleigh and Linda Levine and Christian Ehnis} } @article {bnh-3433, title = {Disaster preparedness for children and families: a critical review}, journal = {Current Psychiatry Reports}, volume = {17}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, chapter = {58}, abstract = {

Preparedness for disasters is universally low; children and families are particularly vulnerable groups. Against this backdrop, research on disaster preparedness for children and families is reviewed, with a focus on disaster preparedness and prevention education programs. Following definitions and theory/rationale, research is critically analyzed. While findings indicate a large growth in research in the past 15\ years and largely positive findings, significant challenges remain. These challenges include issues related to methodological rigor, long-term effectiveness, and implementation. Recent research reflecting these important challenges is reviewed. At the same time, other recent research documents real potential for these programs, including findings which suggest that increased attention to incorporating theory- and evidence-supported components can enhance outcomes. Thus, despite some important limitations and challenges, research done to date signals promise for these programs in reducing risk and increasing resilience to disasters for children, families, and the households and communities in which they live.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11920-015-0589-6}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11920-015-0589-6}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Eva Alisic and Briony Towers and Vicki Johnson and David Johnston} } @conference {bnh-1604, title = {Discovering Future Disaster Management Capability Needs Using Scenario Planning Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Wellington}, abstract = {

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focussed on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently.\ 

A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events.\  Such events have been categorised as {\textquoteleft}outside of the box,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}too fast,{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}too strange{\textquoteright} (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for.\  Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts?

This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

}, author = {Paul Barnes} } @conference {bnh-1574, title = {Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Recent events such as the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2009 Southeast Australia heatwave; 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj{\"o}kull volcano, Iceland; and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure and essential services to long-term disruption from prolonged and complex natural disasters. Prolonged natural disasters can impact surrounding areas for weeks to months after the initial event, causing vast and on-going disruption to utility, transport and communication networks; infrastructure that is vitally important for everyday living, the economy and emergency response. The quake-stricken Canterbury region of New Zealand endured thousands of disruptive aftershocks that continued for over two years following the initial earthquake in 2010. These aftershocks contributed to delays in repair and rebuilding, and caused significant additional damage. Our growing reliance on infrastructure and technology, along with the strong interdependent nature of these critical services, can potentially turn one failure into a cascading disaster. Local impacts to critical infrastructure can also lead to the interruption of essential services in regions that were not directly impacted by the physical hazard event. It has never been more important to understand network vulnerabilities and to analyse the cost of long-term disruption, both social and economic. Whilst significant work has gone into understanding the direct impacts from natural hazards, less emphasis has been placed on understanding the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including indirect and long-term disruption.

}, author = {Phillips, E and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Koschatzky, V and Somerville, P} } @article {bnh-2565, title = {Does emotional closeness to pets motivate their inclusion in bushfire survival plans? Implications for emergency communicators}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

As pet ownership influences responses to the threat of bushfire, current preparedness communication acknowledges the pet-owner relationship as a key reason for including pets in emergency plans. However, not all pet-owner relationships are the same. Some people are physically and emotionally {\textquoteleft}closer{\textquoteright} to their pets than are others, a difference that could impact survival plan intentions. This South Australian study examines how differences in pet-owner closeness affects owners{\textquoteright} views of pets as a motivator for plan creation and of pet inclusion in planning across four survival-plan intention types: {\textquoteleft}stay and defend{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}split the household{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}wait and decide{\textquoteright}, and {\textquoteleft}leave early{\textquoteright}. Of several pet-owner closeness indicators, family membership of pets and anticipated separation distress influenced whether pets were considered a motivator and were included in plans.\ 
Intention-specific recommendations for creating motivating communications based on these effects are resented for emergency services communicators.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-06}, author = {Trigg, Josh and Bradley P Smith and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-3456, title = {Drift capacity of lightly reinforced concrete columns}, journal = {Australian Journal of Structural Engineering}, volume = {15}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, pages = {131-150}, chapter = {131}, abstract = {

This paper presents the findings of a research project investigating the lateral load drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns. Such columns of limited ductility are common in regions of low-moderate seismicity, and although their strength properties are well defined, the drift performance is less understood. The paper presents the results of an experimental study undertaken and the development of a theoretical model for predicting the lateral load-drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns together with a simplified bi-linear model for checking purposes. The test results are presented and clearly indicate the dramatic impact that the axial load ratio has on the drift performance of columns of limited ductility, particularly the significantly lower drift capacities that are available in compression dominated columns.

}, doi = {10.7158/S13-002.2014.15.2}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.7158/13287982.2014.11465154}, author = {Ari Wibowo and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-2467, title = {Dungog Flood 20-21 April 2015: post-flood damage survey}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Dungog is a country town of approximately 2,100 people (2011 census) located at the junction of Myall\ Creek and the Williams River in the Hunter Valley, NSW. It was severely impacted on the 20th and 21st\ of April, 2015 by flooding in both of these watercourses. This report presents the findings of a short\ post-disaster damage survey undertaken by Geoscience Australia on 13 May, 2015. It includes an\ analysis of the survey data and makes comparisons with existing models for building damage in high\ velocity flow regimes. Comparisons were made with the most current flood study for the town, both in\ depth of inundation and predicted flow velocities.


The town is situated on undulating topography which rises from quite flat countryside close to Myall\ Creek and the Williams River to become quite steep terrain at the southern end of the town. Like many\ Australian country towns, Dungog{\textquoteright}s building stock consists of a core of older buildings, many\ predating World War 1, surrounded by residential buildings of all ages up to the present day. Most\ commercial retail buildings are located on Dowling Street, the main north-south thoroughfare, and are\ of unreinforced masonry construction. Light industrial buildings are generally steel portal frame\ construction with a variety of cladding materials. Some light industrial buildings are located on low\ terrain around the north end of town while the more modern light industrial buildings are located in a\ new part of town at the north-west corner of the urban area. There were 1015 private residential\ dwellings in Dungog recorded in the 2011 census. Residential buildings range from older, clad timber\ frame houses on low stumps to more modern construction styles such as brick veneer and cavity brick\ houses with slab on grade foundations.


The floodwaters damaged approximately 46 houses and directly impacted five businesses. Six of the\ impacted houses exhibited velocity-related damage for which video footage taken at the time of the\ flood was available and enabled an estimate of water velocity to be made. Hence, although only a\ small survey was undertaken, the flood afforded the opportunity to gather some data on velocity\ related flood damage to Australian house types for use as validation points on velocity-depth fragility\ curves for one Australian house type. Typically such validation data is difficult to obtain due to paucity\ of information relating to estimates of water velocity accompanying building loss.

}, isbn = {978-1-925124-82-8}, author = {Martin Wehner and Maqsood, T} } @article {bnh-2394, title = {Dynamic modelling of fire coalescence}, year = {2015}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @conference {bnh-2077, title = {An earthquake loss scenario for Adelaide - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Koschatzky, V and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Somerville, P} } @article {bnh-1572, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual project report 2014}, year = {2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The project tackles from an economics perspective issues relating to non-financial benefit estimation, risk analysis, and development of decision making frameworks that would help deliver value for money from public investments in natural hazard management. It has a broad scope in terms of natural hazards, including fires, earthquakes, floods, cyclones and tsunamis. It aims to improve the management of bushfires and other natural hazards by delivering the following outcomes:

  1. Improved recognition of non-financial benefits of management and policy for natural hazards, influencing decisions about budget levels and about management and policy options.
  2. Improved decision making about management and policy options considering the full range of relevant factors (technical, social, economic, environmental, policy).
  3. Improved ability to discuss appropriate budget levels with policy makers and treasury.
  4. Improved quality of economic analysis throughout the sector, resulting in stronger and more defensible analyses, and stronger support from Treasury.

\ The research team has extensive experience non-market valuation, integrated modelling and the economics of environmental and natural resource management and policy. The integrated modelling work builds on our previous work on prescribed burning where we developed powerful approaches for evaluating the value for money offered by alternative management and policy options. For the valuation related work, we have recruited four outstanding environmental economists with extensive experience and high expertise in valuation to be collaborators in this research: Professor Peter Boxall (University of Alberta, Canada); Professor John Rolfe (Central Queensland University); Professor Rob Johnston (Clark University, USA); and Professor Nick Hanley (University of Sterling, UK).

}, author = {David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-2341, title = {Economics of natural hazards: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {134}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project tackles from an economics perspective issues relating to non-financial benefit estimation, risk analysis, and development of decision-making frameworks that would help deliver value for money from public investments in natural hazard management. It has a broad scope in terms of natural hazards, including fires, earthquakes, floods, cyclones and tsunamis. It aims to improve the management of bushfires and other natural hazards by delivering the following outcomes:

The research team has extensive experience in non-market valuation, integrated modelling and the economics of environmental and natural resource management and policy. The team has also recruited four outstanding environmental economists with extensive experience in.

Over the year, the project has actively engaged with end users and the growing list now includes agencies from SA, NSW, TAS, VIC, and WA: Fire and Emergency Services Commission (SA); Attorney General{\textquoteright}s Department; Rural Fire Services (NSW); State Fire Management Council (TAS); South Australian Metropolitan Fire Service; NSW National Parks \& Wildlife Service; Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources (SA); and State Emergency Mangement Committee (WA). The projects major accomplishements for the year include the following:

}, issn = {134}, author = {David J Pannell and Atakelty Hailu and Fiona L Gibson and Veronique Florec} } @conference {bnh-1623, title = {The Effect of Hazard Reduction Burning on the Fuel Array in Nature Reserves and Urban Parks in the Australian Capital Territory Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Hazard reduction burning is a key component of the fuel management program in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Burning is used in a variety of situations depending on the applicable fuel standard, proximity to property, aims of land management and suitability of alternative methods. The main aim of this study was to characterise the changes in the fuel array due to the ACT hazard reduction burning program. We established 187 plots within 38 hazard reduction burns and adjacent unburnt areas. The fuel in all plots was characterised using the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment (OFHA) method and then re-assessed following burning. Opportunistic assessments of four unplanned fires were also taken for comparison. The average OFHA prior to burning was High. This reflected the dense grassy fuels, relatively sparse shrub layer and abundance of smooth-barked gum trees in Canberra{\textquoteright}s nature reserves. Following burning the OFHA was reduced to an average of Moderate. The component of the assessment which exhibited the greatest change was the near-surface fuel which was usually consumed. Changes in bark fuel hazard and elevated fuel hazard were minimal. Surface litter had a minor effect on the OFHA because of the high grass cover in most systems and the incomplete combustion of litter. The sensitivity of the OFHA method to grass means that the OFHA may rapidly return to High {\textendash} i.e. when the grass cover approaches 50 percent. In contrast, wildfires reduced the OFHA to Low, due to much greater consumption of the elevated, bark and surface litter fuels. We predict that the OFHA at sites burnt by wildfire will increase more slowly because of the slower pace of re-growth of woody vegetation.

}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Jennie Mallela and Julian Seddon and Tony Corrigan and Neil Cooper and Brian Levine} } @article {bnh-2502, title = {The effect of split sleep schedules (6h-on/6h-off) on neurobehavioural performance, sleep and sleepiness}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {54}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2016}, chapter = {72}, abstract = {

Shorter, more frequent rosters, such as 6h-on/6h-off split shifts, may offer promise to sleep, subjective sleepiness and performance by limiting shift length and by offering opportunities for all workers to obtain some sleep across the biological night. However, there exists a paucity of studies that have examined these shifts using objective measures of sleep and performance. The present study examined neurobehavioural performance, sleepiness and sleep during 6h-on/6h-off split sleep schedules. Sixteen healthy adults (6 males, 26.13y\ {\textpm}\ 4.46) participated in a 9-day laboratory study that included two baseline nights (BL, 10h time in bed (TIB), 2200h-0800h), 4 days on one of two types of 6h-on/6h-off split sleep schedules with 5h TIB during each {\textquoteleft}off{\textquoteright} period (6h early: TIB 0300h-0800h and 1500h-20000h, or 6-h late: TIB 0900h-1400h and 2100h-0200h), and two recovery nights (10h TIB per night, 2200h-0800h). Participants received 10h TIB per 24h in total across both shift schedules. A neurobehavioural test bout was completed every 2\ h during wake, which included the Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). Linear mixed effects models were used to assess the effect of day (BL, shift days 1{\textendash}4), schedule (6h early, 6h late) and trial (numbers 1{\textendash}6) on PVT lapses (operationalised as the number of reaction times \&gt;500\ ms), PVT total lapse time, PVT fastest 10\% of reaction times and KSS. Analyses were also conducted examining the effect of day and schedule on sleep variables. Overall, PVT lapses and total lapse time did not differ significantly between baseline and shift days, however, peak response speeds were significantly slower on the first shift day when compared to baseline, but only for those in the 6h-late condition. Circadian variations were apparent in performance outcomes, with individuals in the 6h-late condition demonstrated significantly more and longer lapses and slower peak reaction times at the end of their night shift (0730h) than at any other time during their shifts. In the 6h-early condition, only response speed significantly differed across trials, with slower response speeds occurring at trial 1 (0930h) than in trials 3 (1330h) or 4 (2130h). While subjective sleepiness was higher on shift days than at baseline, sleepiness did not accumulate across days. Total sleep was reduced across split sleep schedules compared to baseline. Overall, these results show that while there was not a cumulative cost to performance across days of splitting sleep, participants obtained less sleep and reported lowered alertness on shift days. Tests near the circadian nadir showed higher sleepiness and increased performance deficits. While this schedule did not produce cumulative impairment, the performance deficits witnessed during the biological night are still of operational concern for industry and workers alike.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687015301253}, author = {Michelle A Short and Stephanie Centofanti and Cassie Hilditch and Siobhan Banks and Kurt Lushington and Jillian Dorrian} } @conference {bnh-1614, title = {The Effects of Fire-Plume Dynamics on the Lateral and Longitudinal Spread of Long-Range Spotting Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

The lofting of firebrands from bushfires into a background atmospheric flow can lead to spotting downwind\ of the fire front. Spotting is a hazardous phenomenon because it leads to both unpredictable\ and accelerated fire spread, as winds aloft are often in a different direction from and faster than the\ near-surface winds. Here we use a two-stage modelling process to address some of the uncertainty\ associated with spotting, by quantifying the lateral and longitudinal spread in the landing location of\ potential firebrands and how this spread is affected by the dynamics of the fire plume.

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-2506, title = {The efficacy of objective and subjective predictors of driving performance during sleep restriction and circadian misalignment}, journal = {Accident Analysis \& Prevention}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, abstract = {

Fatigue is a significant contributor to motor-vehicle accidents and fatalities. Shift workers are particularly susceptible to fatigue-related risks as they are often sleep-restricted and required to commute around the clock. Simple assays of performance could provide useful indications of risk in fatigue management, but their effectiveness may be influenced by changes in their sensitivity to sleep loss across the day. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of several neurobehavioral and subjective tasks to sleep restriction (SR) at different circadian phases and their efficacy as predictors of performance during a simulated driving task. Thirty-two volunteers (M{\textpm}SD; 22.8{\textpm}2.9 years) were time-isolated for 13-days and participated in one of two 14-h forced desynchrony protocols with sleep opportunities equivalent to 8h/24h (control) or 4h/24h (SR). At regular intervals during wake periods, participants completed a simulated driving task, several neurobehavioral tasks, including the psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and subjective ratings, including a self-assessment measure of ability to perform. Scores transformed into standardized units relative to baseline were folded into circadian phase bins based on core body temperature. Sleep dose and circadian phase effect sizes were derived via mixed models analyses. Predictors of driving were identified with regressions. Performance was most sensitive to sleep restriction around the circadian nadir. The effects of sleep restriction around the circadian nadir were larger for simulated driving and neurobehavioral tasks than for subjective ratings. Tasks did not significantly predict driving performance during the control condition or around the acrophase during the SR condition. The PVT and self-assessed ability were the best predictors of simulated driving across circadian phases during SR. These results show that simple performance measures and self-monitoring explain a large proportion of the variance in driving when fatigue-risk is high.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457515300968}, author = {Anastasi Kosmadopoulos and Charli Sargent and Xuan Zhou and David Darwent and Raymond Matthews and Drew Dawson and Gregory Roach} } @article {bnh-1721, title = {Emergency volunteering in Australia: transforming, not declining}, number = {065}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The landscape of volunteering is undergoing significant change, in Australia and internationally. Large-scale socioeconomic changes have recast the conditions under which people volunteer in the 21st Century.

With the notable exception of research into the role of digital volunteers, there has been very little research attention yet given to the impact of such changes on disaster and emergency volunteering. Within Australia, a narrow focus on shoring up and protecting the traditional volunteer base of Australian state and territory emergency service agencies against emerging challenges has drowned out awareness of emerging new opportunities. This has led to a narrative of crisis and decline in emergency volunteering that threatens to leave emergency management organisations falling behind in a changing volunteer environment.

This paper presents a more complete picture of the changing landscape of emergency volunteering. It identifies key shifts in the volunteering landscape as a whole and considers the possible implications for Australian emergency volunteering more particularly. Importantly, it includes within its purview volunteering that takes place both with and without affiliation to state and territory emergency service agencies.

The most significant shifts were identified by triangulating two sources of information: 1) international literature on trends in volunteering and 2) trends indicated directly in domestic data and research studies on volunteering in Australia. The same trends were identified in the international and domestic sources.

The {\textquoteright}Big 4{\textquoteright} Forces of Change

While there are numerous developments currently shaping and reshaping the nature and practice of volunteering, based on a broad review of the literature they can be justifiably distilled down to four big, interconnected forces of change.\  The first three of these are each associated with the recent burgeoning of new or previously uncommon forms of volunteering: episodic, corporate (and skills-based) and digital. Combined, these three fast-growing forms of volunteering are widely regarded as {\textquotedblleft}the wave of the future{\textquotedblright}.

The rise of episodic (shorter-term) volunteering is most directly connected to the transformation of modern life and work in the 21st Century.\  The growth of corporate volunteering reflects growing private sector engagement with the voluntary sector and with the societies and communities in which they operate. Meanwhile, digital volunteering is an exciting outcome of the revolution in communication technology, particularly the growth of interactive web 2.0, social media and mobile devices.\  The final trend is greater entanglement of the voluntary sector and government that is recasting the institutional and organisational settings in which volunteering takes place.

Opportunities for Australian Emergency Volunteering

There is no doubt that these {\textquoteleft}big 4{\textquoteright} forces of change will reshape the future landscape of emergency volunteering in Australia as elsewhere. However, exactly what shape this future landscape will take is unclear. In large part, it depends on how emergency management organisations, volunteer managers and volunteers themselves respond to the shifting constellation of challenges and opportunities that are developing in an unfolding {\textquotedblleft}new world{\textquotedblright} of volunteering. The current narrow focus on shoring up and protecting the traditional volunteer base of Australian state and territory emergency service agencies against emerging challenges needs to be expanded to embrace new opportunities to engage with a potentially larger, more diverse, more empowered and more innovative volunteer base.

Emerging research reveals numerous benefits to organisations of engaging with episodic volunteers. These include accessing a larger potential volunteer base, potentially greater flexibility, adaptability and pragmatism amongst episodic volunteers compared to traditional volunteers, and the likelihood that episodic volunteers will commit more time in the shorter-term, which is of particular relevance to disaster response.

For emergency management organisations, more diverse and flexible recruitment and retention strategies are needed to tap into the potential contribution of episodic volunteers. This includes practices such as offering more diverse volunteering roles and experiences, allowing volunteers to more actively shape their own roles, engaging further with skills-based volunteering, as well as actively fostering a sense of community and building social capital amongst volunteers.

Opportunities to develop partnerships with the private sector to support corporate and skills-based emergency volunteering are not being taken up. Most corporate volunteering appears to be reactionary and ad hoc, while on the emergency management sector side there appears to be growing doubt over the potential role of corporate volunteering in particular. Given the influence of corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies, the growth in employee volunteer programs, the growing time commitment expected in paid employment and the preferences of younger employees to combine their paid and volunteer work, it would be worthwhile renewing a focus on exploring models for partnering with the private sector to support emergency volunteering.

Digital volunteering has great potential to strengthen and diversify emergency volunteering; however it would require the greatest degree of change and adaptation within existing emergency management arrangements. While there is a nascent interest in digital volunteering in Australian emergency management, examples of digital volunteering have so far occurred more or less in isolation from the formal emergency management system.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA) lists three adaptation needs amongst traditional humanitarian organisations in order to harness the potential of digital volunteering that are also pertinent to Australian emergency management. They are to adapt to: 1) work with new data sources, 2) work with new partners and techniques, and 3) the idea of information as a basic need in humanitarian response. The UN-OCHA report also argues that {\textquotedblleft}These adaptations are not optional{\textquotedblright} and stresses that {\textquotedblleft}Governments and responders will soon need answers to the questions: {\textquotedblleft}Where were you? We Facebooked/tweeted/texted for help, why didn{\textquoteright}t someone come?{\textquotedblright}

The potential impacts of the shifting relationship between government and the voluntary sector on volunteering are unclear. However, there are opportunities for pursuing supportive public-voluntary sector partnerships. The response of volunteers and volunteer-led organisations to the new organisational and institutional contexts appears to be developing along one of two divergent paths: increased professionalization and greater informality. Professionalization may create greater potential for partnerships as non-profits take up more professional and business-like models of operation that are more familiar to and compatible with government agencies. While a growth in informal, grass-roots volunteering would be less predictable for emergency management organisations, it is well aligned with the national goal of building community resilience to disasters.\ \ 

Conclusions

A key message arising from this report is that emergency volunteering is undergoing a process of transformation rather than one of decline. One thing is clear; the future landscape of emergency volunteering is going to be populated by a much wider and more diverse range of players than in the past. In order to harness the potential of this new landscape, existing emergency management organisations will need to: a) develop more diverse and flexible approaches to engage with a wider range of volunteers and volunteering styles, and b) seek out new forms of partnership and collaboration with both the voluntary and private sectors.

}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-2276, title = {Emerging technologies for risk reduction: assessing the potential use of social media and VGI for increasing community engagement}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, abstract = {

Each year Australia is prone to potential negative and devastating impacts of bushfires and other natural hazards, highlighting the importance of community engagement in disaster risk reduction. Volunteered geographic information (VGI) is an emerging technology that allows members of the public to voluntarily contribute geographic information, predominantly through sources such as social media, photo and video sharing platforms, and online map-making software. The potential role of VGI in disaster response has been documented in recent years, but VGI for community preparation has received less attention. This research explores the potential role for VGI to foster community engagement in bushfire preparation and to empower and build disaster resilience for Tasmanians. Through collaboration with the Tasmania Fire Service, a survey of 154 participants across 12 communities at bushfire risk in Tasmania has quantified trends in individual and community preparedness and VGI and social media use. This paper provides an evidence base for both the use of VGI technologies in bushfire preparation initiatives and directions for further research.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-03-10}, author = {Haworth, B and Eleanor Bruce and Peter Middleton} } @article {bnh-3431, title = {Emissions from prescribed fires in temperate forest in south-east Australia: implications for carbon accounting}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {12}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

We estimated emissions of carbon, as equivalent CO2 (CO2e), from planned fires in four sites in a south-eastern Australian forest. Emission estimates were calculated using measurements of fuel load and carbon content of different fuel types, before and after burning, and determination of fuel-specific emission factors. Median estimates of emissions for the four sites ranged from 20 to 139 Mg CO2e ha-1. Variability in estimates was a consequence of different burning efficiencies of each fuel type from the four sites. Higher emissions resulted from more fine fuel (twigs, decomposing matter, near-surface live and leaf litter) or coarse woody debris (CWD; \> 25 mm diameter) being consumed. In order to assess the effect of declining information quantity and the inclusion of coarse woody debris when estimating emissions, Monte Carlo simulations were used to create seven scenarios where input parameters values were replaced by probability density functions. Calculation methods were (1) all measured data were constrained between measured maximum and minimum values for each variable; (2) as in (1) except the proportion of carbon within a fuel type was constrained between 0 and 1; (3) as in (2) but losses of mass caused by fire were replaced with burning efficiency factors constrained between 0 and 1; and (4) emissions were calculated using default values in the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA), National Inventory Report 2011, as appropriate for our sites. Effects of including CWD in calculations were assessed for calculation Method 1, 2 and 3 but not for Method 4 as the NGA does not consider this fuel type. Simulations demonstrate that the probability of estimating true median emissions declines strongly as the amount of information available declines. Including CWD in scenarios increased uncertainty in calculations because CWD is the most variable contributor to fuel load. Inclusion of CWD in scenarios generally increased the amount of carbon lost. We discuss implications of these simulations and how emissions from prescribed burns in temperate Australian forests could be improved.

}, doi = {10.5194/bg-12-257-2015}, url = {http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/257/2015/bg-12-257-2015-discussion.html}, author = {Malcolm Possell and Jenkins, Meaghan E. and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-1549, title = {Enhancing Resilience of Critical Road Infrastructure Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Enhancing Resilience of Critical Road Infrastructure project. The project will use two selected case study regions to identify failure modes of structures, analyse the gaps in design standards which led to identified failure modes and will quantify probability of failure of most vulnerable structural forms with different intensities of disaster events.

}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-2351, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {144}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project aims to develop vulnerability models for critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bushfire and earthquakes. In the second stage of the project, optimized maintenance and strengthening regimes required to enhance resilience of critical road structures will be identified and a decision making tool will be developed.

During the past year, the research focused on analysis of the case studies available from end user partners and development of the methodology for vulnerability modeling of bridges and floodways under natural hazards of flood, earthquake and bushfires. A field study was undertaken to examine the community impact due to failure of road structures during the 2011 and 2013 floods in the Lockyer Valley region in Queensland. Researchers spent one week conducting semi-structured interviews of the community and identified the major community impacts due to failure of road structures.

Four workshops and a number of informal meetings were held during the year with excellent participation of end users researchers. During the workshops, case study data were identified and the methodology for vulnerability modeling was refined. Future data needs were communicated to the end users.

Two new Ph.D candidates commenced work with the research team on APA scholarships and two more will commence in July 2015. Each of the four strands of the project has recruited a researcher to engage in the project.

Major outcomes during the past year can be summarized as development of the vulnerability modeling methodology for critical road structures exposed to extreme events and demonstration of the methodology using four case studies. This work has been published in three peer reviewed conference papers and submitted as four journal papers. One journal paper has been accepted for publication. In addition, work was presented as invited papers at three industry events.

}, issn = {144}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-2410, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards }, year = {2015}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Hessam Mohseni} } @article {bnh-1843, title = {Erratum to {\textquotedblleft}Using discrete event simulation cellular automata models to determine multi-mode travel times and routes of terrestrial suppression resources to wildland fires"}, journal = {European Journal of Operational Research}, volume = {245}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, pages = {339-340}, chapter = {339}, abstract = {

Forest fires can impose substantial social, environmental and economic burdens on the communities on which they impact. Well managed and timely fire suppression can demonstrably reduce the area burnt and minimise consequent losses. In order to effectively coordinate emergency vehicles for fire suppression, it is important to have an understanding of the time that elapses between vehicle dispatch and arrival at a fire. Forest fires can occur in remote locations that are not necessarily directly accessible by road. Consequently estimations of vehicular travel time may need to consider both on and off road travel. We introduce and demonstrate a novel framework for estimating travel times and determining optimal travel routes for vehicles travelling from bases to forest fires where both on and off road travel may be necessary. A grid based, cost-distance approach was utilised, where a travel time surface was computed indicating travel time from the reported fire location. Times were calculated using a discrete event simulation cellular automata (CA) model, with the CA progressing outwards from the fire location. Optimal fastest travel paths were computed by recognising chains of parent{\textendash}child relationships. Our results achieved comparable results to traditional network analysis techniques when considering travel along roads; however the method was also demonstrated to be effective in estimating travel times and optimal routes in complex terrain.

}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.03.025}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221715002325}, author = {Thomas Duff and Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @conference {bnh-1618, title = {Estimating the Impacts of Natural Hazards on Fatalities and Building Losses Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

This paper is a first pass at quantifying the impacts of natural hazards on fatalities and building losses in Australia over the past century. The emphasis is on developing a methodology which allows the effects of societal changes (population and wealth) across time to be taken into consideration. This process, termed normalisation, effectively estimates the building losses or fatalities from an event as if the event were to impact present-day society, thus allowing a comparison of the most damaging natural hazard events, even if they occurred many years apart. PerilAUS, a database of natural hazard events in Australia and virtually complete since 1900, is described. Future research into losses from natural hazards in Australia is documented.

}, author = {Robin van den Honert and Coates, Lucinda and Katharine Haynes and R Crompton} } @conference {bnh-1562, title = {Experiences of responders in supporting animals and their owners in disasters Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

This paper details an initial exploratory study undertaken as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHRC) Managing Animals in Disasters (MAiD) project. Data to inform the scoping phase of this project are being collected via a number of small-scale studies with key groups.
The aims of this initial study were to assess attitudes towards operational responsibility for animals and to scope the range and extent of challenges faced by emergency services personnel in their interactions with animals and animal owners in the context of disasters. The goal was to gather the views and experiences of a broad cross-section of emergency services personnel operating across Australia across all hazards.
During the period May-July 2014 data were collected from 117 emergency services personnel. Around one third of responders reported occasional or recurring issues with animals and their owners, and a further 23\% felt these issues were significant/frequent or severe. The main issues noted were in the areas of logistics, unclear policy, interaction with owners during response, the physical management and rescue of animals, and inter-agency coordination. Over half the sample reported details of such experiences; these were coded and are discussed in the context of future resilience-enabling emergency management.

}, author = {Mel Taylor and Greg Eustace and Bradley P Smith and Kirrilly Thompson and Rachel Westcott and Penny Burns} } @article {bnh-1838, title = {Exponential random graph modelling of emergency collaboration network}, journal = {Knowledge-Based Systems}, volume = {77}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {68-79}, chapter = {69}, abstract = {

Effective response to bushfires requires collaboration involving a set of interdependent complex tasks that need to be carried out in a synergistic manner. Improved response to bushfires has been attributed to how effective different emergency management agencies carry out their tasks in a coordinated manner. Previous studies have documented the underlying relationships between collaboration among emergency management personnel on the effective outcome in delivering improved bushfire response. There are, however, very few systematic empirical studies with a focus on the effect of collaboration networks among emergency management personnel and bushfire response. Given that collaboration evolves among emergency management personnel when they communicate, in this study, we first propose an approach to map the collaboration network among emergency management personnel. Then, we use Exponential Random Graph (ERG) models to explore the micro-level network structures of emergency management networks and their impact on performance. ERG Models are probabilistic models presented by locally determined explanatory variables and that can effectively identify structural properties of networks. It simplifies a complex structure down to a combination of basic parameters such as 2-star, 3-star, and triangle. By applying our proposed mapping approach and ERG modeling technique to the 2009 Royal Commission Report dataset, we construct and model emergency management response networks. We notice that alternative-k-star, and alternative-k-two-path parameters of ERG have impact on bushfire response. The findings of this study may be utilized by emergency managers or administrators for developing an emergency practice culture to optimize response within an emergency management context.

}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2014.12.029}, url = {http://www.researchgate.net/publication/269391070_Exponential_Random_Graph_Modeling_of_Emergency_Collaboration_Network}, author = {Liaquat Hossain and Jafar Hamra and Rolf Wigand and Sven Carlsson} } @article {bnh-1811, title = {Exposing hidden-value trade-offs: sharing wildfire management responsibility between government and citizens}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, pages = {162-169}, type = {Journal}, chapter = {162}, abstract = {

Developing resilient communities and sharing responsibility for hazard management is the key to Australia{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}National Strategy for Disaster Resilience{\textquoteright}. There are, however, a wide range of conflicting views on the appropriate responsibilities of governments, citizens and communities that are not well recognised in the national policy discourse. What the ideas of resilient communities and shared responsibility mean for wildfire management and how these ideas might shape wildfire safety thinking and practice is therefore unclear and contested. This paper makes explicit some of the necessary, but often hidden, trade-offs between competing values that are implicit in assessments of where responsibility for wildfire management lies, and how it should be shared. After describing different ways in which responsibility is attributed and legitimated through legal and governance systems, this paper compares and contrasts potential legal and governance implications of four hypothetical scenarios for wildfire management, each of which portrays a contrasting set of extreme value trade-offs. The underlying purpose of the exercise is to encourage stakeholders to draw on the frameworks to explicitly acknowledge and debate the value trade-offs that are necessary, but most often unacknowledged, in more moderate decision-making about how to share responsibility for risk management between governments and citizens.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF12201}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF12201.htm}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-2403, title = {The Exposure of Emergency Service Personnel to Asbestos }, year = {2015}, author = {Daryl J. Dixon} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4632, title = {Fighting fires and fatigue: sleep, physical activity, and physical task performance}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfires are any uncontrolled, non-structural burning in grass, scrub, bush, or forests. Wildfires can have a debilitating impact on communities in North America, South America, Southern Europe, and Australia, with the loss of property, livestock, and human life. The financial burden of wildfire is immense. For example, the average annual cost of wildfire in Australia is $77 million (AUD). Globally, the frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires is predicted to escalate, due, at least in part, to climate change resulting in hotter and drier summers. The increase in wildfire activity will result in more frequent and/or longer deployments which may exacerbate the cognitive and physical demands placed on wildland firefighting personnel.

}, keywords = {bushfires, emergency management., fatigue, firefighters, fires, Sleep}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30079447/vincent-fightingfires-2015A.pdf}, author = {Grace Vincent} } @article {bnh-2339, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spotfire dynamics: Experimentation, modelling and simulation - Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {129}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/205}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests in Australia (and in many other vegetation types to a lesser extent) is characterised by the occurrence of spotfires{\textemdash}new fires ignited by the transport of burning debris such as bark ahead of an existing fire. Under most burning conditions, spotfires play little role in the overall propagation of a fire, except where spread is impeded by breaks in fuel or topography and spotfires allow these impediments to be overcome. However, under conditions of severe bushfire behaviour spotfire occurrence can be so prevalent that spotting becomes the dominant propagation mechanism and the fire spreads as a cascade of spotfires forming a {\textquoteleft}pseudo{\textquoteright} front.

It has long been recognised that the presence of multiple individual fires affects the behaviour and spread of all fires present. The convergence of separate individual fires into larger fires is called coalescence and can lead to rapid increases in fire intensity and spread rate. This coalescence effect is frequently utilised in prescribed burning via multiple point ignitions to rapidly burn out large areas.

The zone between two coalescing fires is known as the convergence or junction zone and can be a very dangerous place to be for firefighters and may lead to highly erratic fire behaviour as witnessed during the 2003 Canberra fires. Fire behaviour under such conditions may be dominated by dynamic feedback processes between the energy released by each fire and the coupling of that energy with the atmosphere.

All existing operational fire behaviour models assume that a fire will burn at an approximately constant (quasi-steady) rate of spread for a given set of environmental conditions. While recent work showed that an individual fire starting from a point accelerates to this steady state, little research has been undertaken into the behaviour of multiple simultaneous adjacent ignitions under wildfire conditions or the effects of the dynamic feedbacks involved. No operational fire spread models currently account for the dynamical aspects of fire spread, particularly fire-fire interactions. This inability to accurately predict the behaviour of mass spotting events and the interactions of multiple adjacent fires places firefighters at risk and the general public in danger. With the projected climate change impacts expected to produce more extreme bushfires and prevalence of mass fire behaviour, this deficiency in our understanding and operational systems represents a considerable knowledge gap.

The effects of dynamic processes on fire spread cannot be calculated using tables, spreadsheets or simple calculators.\  To comprehensively account for the effects of dynamic fire spread it is necessary to model the phenomenon using a physics-based model that incorporates complete descriptions of the key processes, including interactions between the fire, the fuel, topography and the surrounding atmosphere. Unfortunately, such a modelling approach is computationally intensive, expensive and model run-times not conducive to operational application.

This project addresses these issues by investigating the processes involved in the coalescence of free-burning fires under experimentally controlled conditions, quantifying the physical mechanisms involved in these and investigating the geometric drivers of fire line propagation (e.g. fire line curvature) with the aim of developing a physically simplified proxy for some of the more complicated dynamical effects. This approach enables development of models that are able to effectively emulate the dynamics of fire spread without the need to explicitly model fire-atmosphere or fire-fire interactions in a computationally costly manner.\ 

}, issn = {129}, author = {Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-3409, title = {Fire eases imbalances of nitrogen and phosphorus in woody plants}, journal = {Ecosystems}, volume = {18}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, pages = {769-779}, chapter = {769}, abstract = {

Fires are widespread and can result in large nutrient losses from ecosystems simultaneous with pulses in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) that can increase their availability to plants. Plant growth is frequently limited by N and P, and fire has the potential to enhance or moderate the magnitude of N and P limitation in plants with important consequences for long-term net primary productivity and global carbon cycling. We used meta-analysis to explore fire effects on N and P concentrations in aboveground plant biomass among a variety of plants and plant communities worldwide. We show that across all observations, fire enhanced N concentration in plants when N/P ratios in biomass were low, and enhanced P concentration in plants when biomass N/P ratios were high. P concentration increased particularly in woody plants. Furthermore, responses of the N/P ratio in woody plants were more flexible than in herbaceous plants so that fire eased N and P imbalances only in woody plants. Our results suggest that these changes in plant N and P in response to fire may help sustain net primary productivity and persistence of woody plants in fire-affected ecosystems worldwide.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10021-015-9861-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-015-9861-1}, author = {Dijkstra, F and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-1552, title = {Fire Spread Across Fuel Types Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Fire Spread Prediction Across Fuel Types project. The principal aim of the project is to develop an accurate physics-based mathematical model that is computationally efficient.

}, author = {Graham Thorpe} } @article {bnh-2335, title = {Fire spread prediction across fuel types: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {124}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The rate at which grass fires spread over flat terrain can be predicted with reasonable accuracy.\  However, estimating the rate of fire-spread through other vegetative types is often more problematic.\  In wooded areas, say, the localized wind speed is determined in part by ground cover, bushes, tree trunks and the forest canopy. This presents a significant challenge to the development of physical models of bushfires.

At first sight, forests appear to be quite random. However, the geometries of individual trees and forests share a remarkable similarity. Not only are the diameters of the branches of an individual tree distributed in fixed ratios, but the ratios of the tree trunks in a forest share the same distribution.\  This uniformity has important implications for the modelling of bushfires. For example, in this work, we have generated fractal geometries of trees, and these have been used to estimate the velocity profiles of the wind as it flows through a stand of trees. The self-similarity between individual trees and forests provides an exciting new intellectual framework in which to develop the next generation of bushfire models. \ Results obtained to date offer considerable promise.

The rate of spread of bushfires can be dominated by embers and firebrands that are conveyed ahead of a fire front. We need to understand how embers are generated and conveyed, and how they ultimately ignite fires. We have designed and constructed an ember generator to help elucidate these mechanisms. A feature of its design is that the firebrands, and the air that conveys them, exit the generator with velocities that are close to being uniform and this helps in our analysis. Results obtained to date clearly demonstrate the uniformity of the air velocity, and methods of measuring the dispersion of embers are underway.

If the rate of ignition of bushfires is to be modeled accurately we need to know the thermo-physical properties of vegetative materials. An extensive battery of experiments aimed at measuring the properties has been developed, and requirements for further testing will be established with end-users.

A conflict exists between modelling the physical details that govern the rate of spread of bushfires and the availability of computing power. As a result, one strand of our research into the next-generation models of bushfires is to develop improved computational methods. One such method has enabled us to model buoyancy-driven flows with great accuracy {\textendash} it is known as explicit filtering of the discretised Navier-Stokes equation. Having proven the concept, the next stage of our work is to apply it specifically to the rate of spread of bushfires.

Infrastructure must be not only bushfire-resistant, but also aesthetically pleasing and economical to build. To be truly creative, designers benefit from having access to a deep understanding of the mechanisms that determine the rate of heat transfer between a bushfire and structures. Hence, a further strand of our integrated research program aims to develop simple-to-use formulae that will help designers of infrastructure at the urban-bushfire interface.

}, issn = {124}, author = {Graham Thorpe} } @article {bnh-2231, title = {Fire, water and everyday life: Bushfire and household defence in a changing climate}, journal = {Fire Safety}, volume = {78}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, pages = {102-110}, chapter = {102}, abstract = {

This paper examines how the availability or scarcity of water influenced the survival related decisions of households during the October 2013 State Mine Fire in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales, Australia. Narrative analysis of semi-structured interviews with 18 households impacted by the bushfire revealed that drought conditions in the months preceding the bushfire left many households dependent on non-reticulated water supplies vulnerable at the time the fire threat became apparent. Despite considerable preparations for water storage and usage during the fire, {\textquotedblleft}weak links{\textquotedblright} in planning (e.g., top-ups, failure of pumps, generators and hoses) meant water was not accessible when needed most. This paper discusses a gap in bushfire safety scholarship on water usage and everyday trade-offs amongst residents in areas independent of reticulated (mains) water supplies. Findings suggest a need for more detailed and consistent information in official bushfire safety advice on storing water prior to a bushfire and effective water distribution systems for household defence and fire fighting.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.08.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711215300187$\#$articles}, author = {Eriksen, Christine}, editor = {Wilkinson, Carrie} } @article {bnh-2568, title = {For pet{\textquoteright}s sake, save yourself! Motivating emergency and disaster preparedness through relations of animal guardianship}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {
Animal ownership and animal attachment have been considered risk factors for surviving emergencies and disasters. However, there is reason to believe that pet guardianship and animal attachment could be reconfigured from risk factor to protective factor. This is because animal guardianship provides access to a number of social networks and communication channels that can be used to disseminate information. However, information alone is insufficient to drive action. This paper refines the {\textquoteleft}pet as protective factor{\textquoteright} proposal by detailing three inter-related influences that might be compelling in the transformation of intention to action. These are motivation (relevant and irrelevant), risk perception (likelihood and consequence of risk), and duty (as a form of responsibility to specific others, or a form of moral obligation). The actions of a guardian will not only affect an animal{\textquoteright}s emergency and natural disaster survivability, but their ability to continue in the co-dependent relationship of guardianship in which they are invested. A consideration of these influences reveals an additional dimension to the {\textquoteleft}pet as protective factor{\textquoteright} proposal. While it could be used to motivate people to save their pets {\textquoteleft}for pets{\textquoteright} sake{\textquoteright} (and hopefully save themselves in the process), it could also convince people to save themselves for their pet{\textquoteright}s sake, and hopefully save their pets in the process.
}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-09}, author = {Kirrilly Thompson} } @conference {bnh-2082, title = {Framework to inspect floodways towards estimating damage - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Buddhi Wahalathantri and Weena Lokuge and Karu Karunasena and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-2396, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems}, year = {2015}, author = {Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-2078, title = {The future of {\textquoteright}non-traditional{\textquoteright} emergency volunteering: what will it look like and how can it work? - Peer reviewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-2390, title = {Gendered responses to the 2009 Black Saturday Bushfires in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Geographical Research}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, abstract = {

This paper presents findings from a gendered analysis of resident responses to the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires (wildfires) in Victoria, Australia. One hundred and seventy-three people lost their lives in the bushfires and more than 2000 houses were destroyed. Previous research on Black Saturday has largely focused on issues of resident preparedness and response, with limited consideration of the role of gender in household decisions and actions. This paper examines the gendered dimensions of risk awareness, preparedness and response among households affected by the bushfires. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with over 600 survivors and a questionnaire of 1314 households in fire-affected areas. Analysis revealed that women more often wanted to leave than men, who more often wanted to stay and defend property against the bushfires. Nevertheless, findings suggest that broad-brush characterisations of staying to defend as a masculine response and leaving as a feminine response are misguided. Although some women expressed a strong desire to leave, others were resolute on staying to defend. Equally, while some men were determined to stay and defend, others had never considered it an option. Despite this, the research identified numerous instances where disagreement had arisen as a result of differing intentions. Conflict most often stemmed from men{\textquoteright}s reluctance to leave, and was most apparent where households had not adequately planned or discussed their intended responses. The paper concludes by considering the degree to which the findings are consistent with other research on gender and bushfire, and the implications for bushfire safety policy and practice.

}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12162/abstract}, author = {J Whittaker and Eriksen, Christine and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-1844, title = {Global vegetation gross primary production estimation using satellite-derived light-use efficiency and canopy conductance}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {163}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, pages = {206-216}, chapter = {206}, abstract = {

Climate and physiological controls of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) vary in space and time. In many ecosystems, GPP is primary limited by absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation; in others by canopy conductance. These controls further vary in importance over daily to seasonal time scales. We propose a simple but effective conceptual model that estimates GPP as the lesser of a conductance-limited (Fc) and radiation-limited (Fr) assimilation rate.\ Fc\ is estimated from canopy conductance while\ Fr\ is estimated using a light use efficiency model. Both can be related to vegetation properties observed by optical remote sensing. The model has only two fitting parameters: maximum light use efficiency, and the minimum achieved ratio of internal to external CO2\ concentration. The two parameters were estimated using data from 16 eddy covariance flux towers for six major biomes including both energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Evaluation of model estimates with flux tower-derived GPP compared favourably to that of more complex models, for fluxes averaged; per day (r2\ =\ 0.72, root mean square error, RMSE\ =\ 2.48\ μmol\ C\ m2\ s-\ 1, relative percentage error, RPE\ =\ -\ 11\%), over 8-day periods (r2\ =\ 0.78 RMSE\ =\ 2.09\ μmol\ C\ m2\ s-\ 1,RPE\ =\ -\ 10\%), over months (r2\ =\ 0.79, RMSE\ =\ 1.93\ μmol\ C\ m2\ s-\ 1, RPE\ =\ -\ 9\%) and over years (r2\ =\ 0.54, RMSE\ =\ 1.62\ μmol\ C\ m2\ s-\ 1, RPE\ =\ -\ 9\%). Using the model we estimated global GPP of 107\ Pg\ C\ y-\ 1\ for 2000{\textendash}2011. This value is within the range reported by other GPP models and the spatial and inter-annual patterns compared favourably. The main advantages of the proposed model are its simplicity, avoiding the use of uncertain biome- or land-cover class mapping, and inclusion of explicit coupling between GPP and plant transpiration.

}, keywords = {Photosynthesis; Canopy conductance; Light use efficiency; FLUXNET; MODIS; Gross primary production; GPP; Vegetation}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.016}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425715001121}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Ray Leuning and Guerschman, Juan Pablo} } @conference {bnh-1559, title = {The Heatwaves of the 2013/14 Australian Summer Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Heatwaves represent a significant natural hazard in Australia, arguably more hazardous to life than bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods. In the 2008/2009 summer, for example, many more lives were lost to heatwaves than to that summer{\textquoteright}s bushfires which were among the worst in the history of the Australian nation. Yet for many years, these other forms of natural disaster have received much greater public attention than heatwaves. This might be changing in Australia however, as health and emergency services increasingly use weather forecast information to become proactive in providing advice to the community on how to mitigate the effects of heatwaves. Significant community engagement took place during the 2013/2014 Australian summer, a summer which generated some significant heatwaves, comparable to those of 2009, 2004, 1939 and 1908.
In January 2014, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology introduced a pilot national heatwave forecasting service, to issue forecasts of forthcoming non-severe, severe and extreme heatwaves. The service is based on the excess heat factor (EHF) or heatwave intensity concept, which quantifies the extent of the temperature elevation during a heatwave in a manner relevant to the expected impact of the heatwave on human health. The forecasting system makes use of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the latter providing implicit information about average humidity levels, without humidity being included explicitly in the calculation.
This paper will document the heatwaves of the 2013/2014 Australian summer, in terms of the EHF metric, and will describe how well they were forecast by the new service.

}, author = {Robert Fawcett and John Nairn} } @article {bnh-2569, title = {Helping hands, hurting hooves: towards a multidisciplinary paradigm of large animal rescue}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Large Animal Rescue (LAR) entails the removal of a large animal from a place of danger to one of safety by the most humane method, with an overriding regard for the safety and welfare of responders as well as members of the public. However, there has been little consideration for the ways in which human and animal safety are mutually incorporated and the unique challenges posed by the human-animal bond with respect to LAR. Moving beyond the focus of previous authors on its technical aspects, this article reconciles the two perspectives with a multispecies, anthrozoological account of LAR. It provides examples from three previously undocumented rescues of horses trapped in mud, flood waters, and a gully to illustrate the ways in which the safety of humans and animals are mutually dependent. Above all, the case studies signal the need for a shift towards multidisciplinary approaches to LAR that engage emergency services, engineering, veterinary sciences and social sciences in collaborative knowledge sharing and creation.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-12}, author = {Kirrilly Thompson and Maryanne Leighton and Chris Riley} } @article {bnh-1753, title = {How do residents in bushfire prone areas view the risk of their local area and homes?}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, abstract = {

This paper is part of a larger research project investigating people{\textquoteright}s perception of the\ bushfire risk of their own property. It analyses the 46 survey responses from residents living\ in Mount Wilson and Pretty Beach, NSW, Australia. It looks at two issues: resident{\textquoteright}s\ perception of the bushfire risk of their local area and their own property, and in response to\ this perception of the local bushfire risk, which parts of their home would they seek shelter in\ during a bushfire and which parts would they avoid. The paper concludes that: the residents{\textquoteright}\ perception of risk did not match the NSW RFS determinations; the residents{\textquoteright} perception of\ risk did not seem to correlate closely with the construction of their house but seemed to\ correlate more with the characteristics of their immediate environs; there were\ commonalities in the spaces residents suggested they would take shelter in their own house\ during a bushfire.

}, author = {Brown, Douglas} } @conference {bnh-2087, title = {How do we reduce vehicle related deaths: exploring Australian flood fatalities 1900-2015 - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Chas Keys} } @conference {bnh-2070, title = {How will the new satellite navigation systems help with the provision of information and warnings? - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Suelynn Choy and John Handmer and J Whittaker and Yuki Shinohara and Tomohiro Hatori and Naohiko Kohtake} } @conference {bnh-2097, title = {Implementing policy for enabling disaster resilience in the Australian federation: what role for government? - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @conference {bnh-2071, title = {Improved assessment of grassland fuels in multiple jurisdictions across Australia}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Danielle Wright and Nichols, David and Slijepcevic, A. and Susan Kidnie and Alex Chen and Rachel Bessell} } @conference {bnh-2088, title = {Improved modeling of extreme storm surges and waves along the Australian coast - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Ivica Janekovic and Yasha Hetzel and Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @article {bnh-2386, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {150}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We aim to study the dynamics, predictability and processes of severe weather, including fire weather. We seek also to improve forecasts of severe weather, and to better depict forecast uncertainty in these events, thereby facilitating better risk management and more cost-effective mitigation. So far, we have studied ember transport in smoke plumes, pyrocumulus clouds, the meteorology of the Blue Mountains bushfires of October 2013, and the east coast low event of April 2015, four studies which span a wide range of time and space scales and require a range of different methods.

We are building on our existing modelling of bushfire plumes by using it to study ember transport.\  Embers are added near the base of the plumes and their trajectories calculated from the model winds. \ At higher wind speeds the embers travel further downstream than at lower wind speeds, as expected.\  However, the lateral spread is much broader for lower wind speeds. \ Understanding the spread in landing positions will facilitate the development of computationally affordable and physically realistic means of calculating the expected spotfire distribution in fire spread models.

We have further extended our plume modelling to begin a study of pyrocumulus development. Intense fire plumes in suitably moist environments can lead to cloud development, with intense updrafts and if rain develops the possibility of strong downbursts.\  Such pyro-convection may lead to enhanced and unpredictable fire spread, increased ember transport and spotting, and further ignitions from pyrocumulonimbus lightning. \ Our simulations produce realistic clouds, including the formation of rain and strong downdrafts. \ We will now examine some more cases, with the eventual aim of providing a preliminary forecast tool for pyrocumulus formation.

Although the Blue Mountains fires of October 2013 persisted for several weeks, much of the spread occurred on a single day. While this was expected to be a day of high fire risk, the extreme fire spread was unpredicted and the causes unknown. \ Our high resolution simulations helped identify the downward extension of high winds aloft in the vicinity of the fire ground, due to mountain wave activity. \ In addition, the marked wind change on that day was associated with a dry slot, known to worsen fire behaviour due to extremely low humidity.

East coast lows are intense low-pressure systems that form close to the east coast of Australia, most commonly along the New South Wales coast. They can produce severe wind, wave and flood impacts as in the event of 20-23 April 2015, which we are studying. For the first time, we are conducting this study with an ensemble of 24 simulations, rather than just a single forecast.\  Each simulation begins from a slightly different initial state, giving 24 different, but plausible, forecasts that represent a range of possible outcomes. Collectively, these simulations accurately predict the position and intensity of the low, the strong winds and the rainfall. \ The differences between them will be analysed to determine how predictable aspects of the event were.

}, issn = {150}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and W. Thurston and Simon Ching and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-2404, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community risk}, year = {2015}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and W. Thurston and Simon Ching and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett} } @conference {bnh-2075, title = {Improvements and difficulties associated with seismic assessment of infrastructure in Australia - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-2334, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {123}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was approximately $377 million per year.\  The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems. These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods, using observed and predicted rainfall. The hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that is flowing through the river network, while the hydraulic model converts this flow volume into river water levels/velocities and floodplain extents.\  Over recent times, the accuracy and reliability of these flood forecasting systems has significantly improved. However, it remains difficult to provide accurate flood warnings. This is because of errors and/or uncertainties in the model structure, the model parameters, and/or the meteorological forcings (mainly the rainfall). The hypothesis of this project is that remote sensing data can be used to improve modelled flood forecasts. More specifically, in this project we are constraining the hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture values, as this variable determines the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration.\  Further, we are constraining the hydraulic model using remotely sensed water levels and/or flood extents. Thus every time a remote sensing image becomes available, we correct the model predictions, which should lead to improved model forecasts of flow depth, extent and velocity for a number of days in the future.

}, issn = {123}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-1543, title = {Improving Flood Forecast Skill Using Remote Sensing Data Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Improving Flood Forecast Skill project. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems. These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods, using rainfall predictions.

}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels} } @conference {bnh-1619, title = {Improving the Resilience of Existing Housing to Severe Wind Events Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe wind storms have typically shown that Australian houses built prior to the mid-1980s do not offer the same level of performance and protection during windstorms as houses constructed to contemporary building standards. Given that these older houses will represent the bulk of the housing stock for many decades, practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research will make a significant improvement to housing performance and to the economic and social well-being of the community.
Some structural retrofitting details exist for some forms of older housing but the take up of these details is limited. There is also evidence that retrofitting details are not being included into houses requiring major repairs following severe storm events, thus missing the opportunity to improve resilience of the house and the community. Hence the issues of retrofitting of older housing including feasibility, and hindrances on take-up etc. must be analysed.
This paper describes a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project whose primary objective o is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia. These evidence based strategies will be (a) tailored to both aid policy formulation and decision making in government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the building community for retrofitting typical at risk older houses in Australian communities.

}, author = {David Henderson and John Ginger} } @article {bnh-2356, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {143}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe wind storms have typically shown that Australian houses built prior to the mid-1980s do not offer the same level of performance and protection during windstorms as houses constructed to contemporary building standards. Given that these older houses will represent the bulk of the housing stock for many decades, practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research will make a significant improvement to housing performance and to the economic and social well-being of the community.

Structural retrofitting details exist for some forms of legacy housing but the uptake of these details is limited. There is also evidence that retrofitting details are not being included into houses requiring major repairs following severe storm events, thus missing the ideal opportunity to improve resilience of the house and community. Hence, the issues of retrofitting legacy housing, including feasibility and hindrances on take-up, etc., must be analysed.

The primary objective of this research is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia.\  These evidence-based strategies will be (a) tailored to aid policy formulation and decision making in government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the building community for retrofitting typical at-risk houses in Australian communities. Specific task items include:

{\textbullet} \  Categorize residential structures into types based on building features that influence windstorm vulnerability using Geoscience Australia and CTS survey data. From these, a suite will be selected to represent those contributing most to windstorm risk

{\textbullet} \  Involve end-users and stakeholders (i.e. homeowners, builders, regulators, insurers) to assess amendments and provide feedback on practicality and aesthetics of potential upgrading methods for a range of buildings. Cost effective strategies will be developed for key house types

{\textbullet} \  Vulnerability models will be developed for each retrofit strategy using survey data, the authors{\textquoteright} existing vulnerability models, and the NEXIS database of Australian housing characteristics. Case studies will be used to evaluate effectiveness of proposed retrofit solutions in risk reduction. Economic assessment using the same case studies will be used to promote uptake of practical retrofit options

}, issn = {143}, author = {Daniel Smith and David Henderson and John Ginger and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-1535, title = {Improving the Resilience of Existing Housing to Severe Wind Events Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Improving the Resilience of Existing Housing to Severe Winds project. The primary objective of this project is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia.

}, author = {David Henderson} } @article {bnh-2449, title = {Improving the retention and engagement of volunteers in emergency service agencies: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {155}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2014 we presented the framework of our BNHCRC project {\textquotedblleft}Improving the retention and engagement of volunteers in emergency service agencies{\textquotedblright} across four themes. This year{\textquoteright}s report provides the {\textquotedblleft}bricks and mortar{\textquotedblright} of our operations thus revealing a firm shape of the developing research.

The first theme recognises the evolving landscape of {\textquoteleft}the volunteer{\textquoteright} in today{\textquoteright}s emergency service. The people who sign up for, and turn out to training and callouts are a jumbled mosaic comprising many different personalities, needs, expectations and desires. No longer can we rely on a homogenous set of personal traits and values, brigades and units are now populated with a mix of generational identities, ethnicities, educational backgrounds and socio-economic identities. This study intends to provide a better understanding of who the {\textquoteleft}volunteer{\textquoteright} is and what it is they value. The research within this theme has seen steady progress; following on from a comprehensive literature review, the next stage of the research involves collecting survey responses and establishing focus groups in the NSW State Emergency Service (SES). The outcome of the study will produce a complete values audit package that could be used by other emergency services to better understand the motives of their own volunteer workforce.

The second theme addresses one of the most frequently expressed concerns by volunteers about their organisation, that is poor leadership, specifically at the level of the Brigade Captain and Unit Controller. Our Leadership Development Program introduces a leading theory of motivational leadership borrowed from psychology. In 2014 we offered the program as a pilot to volunteer leaders of the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) and NSW SES. Data collected showed that leaders were able to adopt a more autonomy supportive leadership style after the training. Furthermore, the volunteers working with them are more satisfied with their volunteering job and less likely to leave when they have their basic psychological needs fulfilled. More research is required to substantiate the data. The findings of the pilot study were presented at the Forth World Congress on Positive Psychology in Florida, USA. We expect to hand over the program to the emergency service agencies in 2017.

The third theme looks at progress of gender diversity in the Australian emergency services. We are keen to examine this issue from a causal perspective to try to understand the important elements which may be shaping or constraining gender migration in emergency service agencies. A review of publications related to gender in the emergency services is in preparation and input from stakeholders is being sought.

The forth theme that aimed to examine best practice in cadetship programs has been discontinued due to a refocus of end-user interest.\ 

}, issn = {155}, author = {Michael Jones} } @article {bnh-1539, title = {Improving the Retention and Engagement of Volunteers in Emergency Service Agencies Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This project will address an area of organisational strategy that has been largely overlooked in both practice and in research, that is, hosting organisations such as emergency response agencies may\ not be effectively managing endogenous elements of their organisational practice, the impact of\ which is sub-optimal volunteer retention.

}, author = {Michael Jones} } @article {bnh-1538, title = {Improving the Role of Hazard Communications in Increasing Residents{\textquoteright} Preparedness and Response Planning Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This project combines expertise in communication, social and consumer psychology, and disaster and emergency management. It is designed to develop evidence-based strategies that motivate appropriate action during the preparedness and planning phase of disasters.

}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero} } @article {bnh-2312, title = {Improving the role of hazard communications in increasing residents{\textquoteright} preparedness and response planning: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {127}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project addresses the following problem statements: 1) what measures can best be used to capture individuals{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards?, 2) how effective are traditional strategies, such as community engagement groups vs. brochures vs. websites vs. advertising in increasing preparedness and planning by residents of hazard prone areas?, and 3) how can strategies be improved to increase preparedness and planning for natural hazards? All problem statements are being addressed within the context of bushfires and floods.\ Over the past 12 months, this project has undertaken and completed the following:

The next 12 months will focus on the development of our Phase 3 research, which will identify psychological barriers and enablers of preparedness and planning in the context of a set of non-traditional strategies aimed to increase preparedness and planning.\ 

}, issn = {127}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero} } @article {bnh-3406, title = {Incident Management Approaches above the Incident Management Team Level in Australia}, journal = {Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management}, volume = {12}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, pages = {101-119}, chapter = {101}, abstract = {

This paper discusses incident management strategies widely used above the incident management team (IMT) level in the four Australian States namely, Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland. It begins with an overview of how incident management approaches above the IMT might differ from the local IMT level. By exploring this difference, this paper provides an insight into how emergency management personnel working above or beyond the local IMT level often deal with large scale multiple emergency events and require an understanding of broader problems that they might confront in the future. Then, it provides an outline of how strategic emergency management objectives are addressed in the state level arrangements in aforementioned jurisdictions. Specifically, this includes response orientations, state level emergency management facilities, long term thinking, the management of stakeholder relationships, leadership, and organisational adaptation and capacity building. Later, some of the challenges associated with incident management above the IMT level are discussed. Finally, the paper concludes by discussing the implications of this study to the emergency management sector.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2013-0054}, url = {https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.2015.12.issue-1/jhsem-2013-0054/jhsem-2013-0054.xml}, author = {Bhandari, R and Owen, Christine and Cain Trist} } @article {bnh-1600, title = {Informal Volunteerism in Emergencies and Disasters: A Literature Review}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This paper examines the role of informal volunteers in emergency and disaster management. It explores the ways ordinary citizens volunteer their time, knowledge, skills and resources to help others in times of crisis. First, volunteerism in emergencies and disasters is explored. Traditional definitions of volunteerism are examined and it is argued that less rigid definitions are needed to fully recognise and value citizen contributions to emergency and disaster management. Second, the role of informal volunteers in emergencies and disasters is explored. Research on convergence behaviour in disasters and the phenomenon of emergence is discussed, before examples of informal volunteerism are discussed. Third, the implications of informal volunteerism for emergency and disaster management are discussed.

}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @conference {bnh-1560, title = {Integrated Disaster Decision Support System Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Investing in mitigation activities before a natural disaster occurs can be very effective in reducing disaster losses. However, there can be a number of obstacles to developing and implementing long term mitigation schemes, including a tendency to invest in works with clearer short-term benefits, and the difficulty in accurately attributing risk and benefits to natural disasters and mitigation options, respectively. Decision support systems (DSSs) can be advantageous in helping overcome these obstacles, because of their analytical capabilities to combine various sources of information and support trade-off analysis. However, DSSs for natural disaster mitigation have so far tended to focus on disaster preparedness and the immediate and post-crisis response to emergencies. Consequently, an integrated natural hazard mitigation DSS is being developed. This DSS will optimise the choice of mitigation options in a multicriteria sense, through assessing the performance of various policy options in the long term. Models will be used to evaluate the performance of mitigation options across a number of natural hazards in an integrated way, whilst taking account of land use and climate change. The system will be developed through participatory processes, involving stakeholders from various organisations responsible for hazard mitigation, to ensure the system addresses the most pertinent issues, as well as the decision making process for hazard mitigation. To test the approach in different contexts, it will be applied to three case studies, the first being Greater Adelaide. This paper introduces the proposed DSS.

}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Ed Pikusa} } @conference {bnh-2094, title = {The integration of informal volunteers into animal emergency management: experiences from the 2015 South Australian bushfires - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy and Greg Eustace} } @conference {bnh-2092, title = {Investigation of damage: Brisbane 27 November 2014 sever storm event - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Korah Parackal and M. S. Mason and David Henderson and D. J. Smith and John Ginger} } @article {bnh-1814, title = {It{\textquoteright}s not a {\textquoteleft}thing{\textquoteright} but a {\textquoteleft}place{\textquoteright}: reconceptualising {\textquoteleft}assets{\textquoteright} in the context of fire risk landscapes}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2014}, pages = {130-137}, type = {Journal}, chapter = {130}, abstract = {

At a national policy level, Australian governments have embraced the notion of shared responsibility between agencies and communities for disaster resilience, including bushfire. Emergency management agencies take an asset-based approach to management based on an assumption that valued places can be quantified by cataloguing individual {\textquoteleft}things{\textquoteright} in the landscape. Implicit in shared responsibility, however, is incorporation of local knowledge of landscape and risk into planning. This already difficult task can be made more complex as local constructions of risk in the landscape sometimes appear at odds with management agency perspectives. This research examined local constructions of bushfire risk in two contrasting Australian landscapes {\textendash} one semi-rural, one peri-urban. The results suggest that local ecological knowledge arises from interactions between people, the landscape and objects (e.g. flora and fauna) in the landscape. Place meanings transcend individual {\textquoteleft}things{\textquoteright}, emerging instead from experience of the whole landscape, both social and ecological and at multiple scales. We argue therefore, that understanding bushfire cannot be segregated from wider social and ecological processes at a landscape level. Shared responsibility will involve respectful and meaningful engagement between agencies and landholders in collaborative planning to ensure local knowledge informs asset-based management.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF14035}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF14035.htm}, author = {Ruth Beilin and Karen Reid} } @conference {bnh-2081, title = {Large-eddy simulations of pyro-convection and its sensitivity to environmental conditions - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-3428, title = {Leadership in crisis: developing beyond command and control}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, abstract = {

This paper discusses new demands facing emergency management leaders and reflects on one of the professional development initiatives for leaders in emergency management conducted through the Australian Institute of Emergency Management (AEMI). Since 2010 approximately 200 people have participated in the professional development program {\textquoteright}Beyond Command and Control: Leadership in Crisis{\textquoteright}. This paper reflects on the key intentions of the program and discusses the insights gained and the learning challenges identified for future leadership programs that may be offered in the broader emergency management sector.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-03-05}, author = {Owen, Christine and Cameron Scott and Richard Adams and David Parsons} } @conference {bnh-1558, title = {Learning from Adversity: What Has 75 Years of Bushfire Inquiries Taught Us? Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This paper reports on preliminary research conducted at the ANU on the effectiveness of formal, public post event inquiries. With a focus on inquiries into bushfires the paper presents a broad overview of the inquiries over time as well as a detailed review of the multiple inquiries into the 2003 Canberra fires to ask what has been learned from these processes.

}, author = {Michael Eburn and David Hudson and Ignatious Cha and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-1640, title = {Learning Lessons from Disasters: Alternatives to Royal Commissions and Other Quasi-Judicial Inquiries}, journal = {Australian Journal of Public Administration}, volume = {74}, year = {2015}, month = {20/01/2015}, pages = {495-508}, chapter = {495}, abstract = {

With over 50 inquiries in 75 years, Australian communities continue to suffer from the impact of extreme events whether fires, floods, cyclones, or other emergencies. Einstein is reported to have said {\textquoteleft}Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results{\textquoteright}. The insanity may not lie in responding to fires and emergencies the same way, and facing another tragedy, but in reviewing these events in the same way and expecting the quasi-judicial process to identify how to prevent the next one. This paper argues that it is time to do the post-event review in a different way and suggests some possible options for new approaches to learning lessons from tragedy.

}, keywords = {disasters, inquiries, royal commission}, doi = {10.1111/1467-8500.12115}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12115/full}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-1813, title = {The likelihood of ignition of dry-eucalypt forest litter by firebrands}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {225-235}, type = {Journal}, chapter = {225}, abstract = {

Ignition probability of litter of dry-eucalypt forest by standard flaming and glowing firebrand samples was tested in a wind tunnel. Standard flaming firebrands were sections of bamboo sate stick 50\ mm long, and flamed for ~9\ s in still air. Standard glowing samples were sections of shed bark of\ Eucalyptus globulus\ 50\ mm long, 15\ mm wide and ~2\ mm in thickness. These were burnt at their terminal velocities and at deposition had a mean mass of 0.2\ g and would remain glowing for 2.5\ min in wind. Ignition was tested using air speeds of zero, 1 and 2\ m\ s{\textendash}1, and oven-dried fuel moisture contents between 4 and 21\%. For flaming samples, ignition probability was insensitive to variation in fuel and airflow characteristics and was a function of wind (no wind or wind) and fuel moisture content. For glowing samples, ignition probability was a function of fuel moisture content and wind speed. The models confirm the dominating influence of fuel moisture, are consistent with expert observations in the field and provide a practical measure of ignition likelihood by firebrands. It is argued that airflow turbulence and relative humidity are potentially significant for ignition by glowing firebrands.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF14048}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF14048.htm}, author = {Ellis, Peter} } @conference {bnh-2096, title = {Linking local wildfire dynamics to pyroCB development - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Rick McRae and Jason J. Sharples and Michael Fromm and George Kablick} } @article {bnh-3464, title = {Local intraplate earthquake considerations for Singapore}, journal = {The IES Journal Part A: Civil \& Structural Engineering}, volume = {8}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2014}, pages = {62-70}, chapter = {62}, abstract = {

The current National Annex for Singapore to Eurocode 8 is primarily to address distant hazards from Sumatra and is not intended to provide coverage for potential local intraplate hazards. The latter type of hazards has safety implications on low-rise structures including many of the aged building construction. It is argued that the absence of local seismic activities in the recorded history within the Malaysian peninsular cannot be used as evidence to justify the assumption that its level of potential local hazards is any lower than other intraplate regions such as Australia, Southern India, and Central and Eastern United States, because of the relative smallness of the landmass of the peninsular. This paper presents a response spectrum model for intraplate earthquakes using relevant data from other regions around the world as opposed to relying on very limited amount of data from regional monitoring. Finally, a response spectrum model that takes into account potential threats from both distant and local seismic sources is recommended for future adoption by Singapore.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19373260.2014.974873}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19373260.2014.974873?journalCode=tiea20}, author = {Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Elisa Lumantarna and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-1835, title = {Making the landscape {\textquotedblleft}home{\textquotedblright}: Narratives of bushfire and place in Australia}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {58}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, pages = {95-103}, chapter = {95}, abstract = {

This study investigated how the meaning of {\textquoteleft}home{\textquoteright} influences the social construction of bushfire in two Australian communities at high risk. An increasing number of Australians are living in proximity to areas of high bushfire risk due to climate, vegetation and demographic changes. Land and Fire Management Agencies recognise an urgent need to understand what motivates residents to take action to mitigate bushfire risk, and individual decisions whether or not to evacuate when bushfire is imminent. In bushfire policy and management, the home is considered to be synonymous with the house and associated built structures. Using a combination of visual and ethnographic research methods, we {\textquoteleft}mapped{\textquoteright} residents{\textquoteright} understanding of {\textquoteleft}home{\textquoteright}. The findings suggest that the concept of {\textquoteleft}home{\textquoteright} embraces more than the private spaces of house and garden. Landscape practices such as gardening with indigenous plant species, ecological restoration, and habitual walking extend the home territory beyond the house and garden and into public landscapes. Physical elements of the landscape such as mountains and locally significant species of trees form part of the {\textquoteleft}imaginary{\textquoteright} of home. These findings are important to the on-going study of the meaning of home. The implications are also significant for land and bushfire managers as they suggest that community education programs that focus solely on the house may fail to connect with people{\textquoteright}s wider sense of home in the landscape.

}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.10.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718514002218}, author = {Karen Reid and Ruth Beilin} } @article {bnh-2352, title = {Managing animals in disasters: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {145}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The issue of animals in disasters and animal emergency management

Consideration of animals (pets, commercial animals, livestock and other animals, including wildlife) can impact on people{\textquoteright}s decision making and behaviour during disasters and emergencies. In addition the management of animals in disasters is complex; involving many stakeholders and requiring clear roles and responsibilities for all concerned and a high degree of co-ordination. In Australia, despite increasing levels of interest and activity in this area there is a general lack of integration of animal emergency management in the emergency management system and no nationally-agreed approach.

Its significance

A lack of preparedness by some animal owners combined with the severity of the emergency situation and strong attachment to animals can lead to issues of public and responder safety. Animal owners may risk their lives to save animals, may fail/refuse to evacuate, may abandon or release animals, may have unrealistic expectations if they evacuate with their animals, and may try to return before it is safe to rescue or tend to their animals.

The interface between animal owners/wildlife-concerned general public and response agencies is important in preparedness and response. Engagement materials for some owner groups, specifically households with pets, is widely available; although their effectiveness in terms of improved preparedness and planning are not clear. However, in emergency response, responders can be faced with difficult dilemmas and highly emotionally-charged situations. In addition, if there is a lack of co-ordination in response there can be confusion for animal owners and responders and further potential for risky or impulsive decision-making and poor animal welfare outcomes.

Communities frequently perceive gaps in animal emergency management response and this leads to emergent informal volunteering to rescue or move animals. Sometimes this occurs in risky conditions and by well-intended, but chaotic means, and can add to the workload of, and cause distraction to, official response agencies at critical times.

Our approach

Given the breadth of the problem and the lack of a body of Australian research in this area we are following a phased approach in the MAiD project. Initially we have scoped the area; identifying the challenges and needs of responders and stakeholders, reviewing plans, policies, and initiatives and identifying priority areas with our project end-users and other stakeholders.

We have now transitioned to the field work stage in the research program to focus on the experiences and issues around the integration of emergent informal volunteers into animal emergency management, using the Sampson Flat fire as a case study. In addition we are developing a multi-stakeholder research project in Tasmania to focus on peri-urban animal owners. We are developing a method to collect data, and hopefully map, animal ownership distribution and owners{\textquoteright} intentions in bushfires to support planning for Tasmania Fire Service, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) and local government. Following this {\textquoteleft}proof of concept{\textquoteright} study we plan to test this approach in another jurisdiction and another hazard, e.g. flood or cyclone, to assess whether this can be flexibly applied across different contexts.

In addition to our two main field studies we have a PhD student in South Australia investigating the animal owner-responder interface in the Port Lincoln area; which has been experienced numerous fire events in the last decade. We also have a number of smaller studies underway in South Australia with horse owners and with livestock producers, being undertaken by team members and students.

As outlined above, the MAiD project has, and continues, to produce a valuable evidence-base for animal emergency management in Australia. We will work with our end users to produce usable techniques/methods and materials to support the integration of different stakeholders in this area. In addition, through our focus on animal emergency management, we will advocate for greater acknowledgement of animal emergency management as a {\textquoteleft}people{\textquoteright} issue and look to assist in the national dialogue and production of training materials to support better integration of animal emergency management into the Australian emergency management system.

}, issn = {145}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-1551, title = {Managing Animals in Disasters: Improving Preparedness, Response and Resilience Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Managing Animals in Disasters project. The MAiD initiative is seeking to identify and build best practice approaches to animal welfare emergency management to enable engagement with animal owners, and other stakeholders in disasters/emergencies.

}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @conference {bnh-1615, title = {Managing Critical Infrastructure in a Changing Climate: Risk, Roles, Responsibilities and Politics Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Critical infrastructure underpins essential services such as power, water, health, communications systems and banking and is vital to our way of life. However, a range of risks can damage or destroy critical infrastructure and disrupt these essential services. One such risk is that posed by natural disasters, and climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of those events and risks.

}, author = {Karen Hussey and Dovers, Steve} } @conference {bnh-1563, title = {Managing Severe Weather - Progress and Opportunities Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Severe weather often becomes "high impact" weather when certain {\textquotedblleft}tipping points{\textquotedblright} are reached. Rivers burst their banks, houses lose their roofs, and bushfires exceed suppression capacity as thresholds are crossed. The high adverse impact events tend to be rare, because society and the environment naturally tend to adapt to more frequent events of lower impact. They are often small scale, or a relatively small part of a larger system. And they are often subject to considerable forecast uncertainty.
Managing the impacts of severe weather is therefore about managing risk. The results of exceeding one of these thresholds are profoundly different to merely approaching it {\textendash} our memories of Hurricane Katrina would be very different if the storm surge had not been high enough to overtop and breach the levees protecting New Orleans. Often, the differences in the meteorology between a close call and a disaster will fall within current forecast uncertainty. Balancing the costs of over-preparation and under-preparation in the presence of such uncertainty is a formidable task.

}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Michael Naughton and John Bally} } @article {bnh-1545, title = {Mapping and Understanding Bushfire and Natural Hazard Vulnerability and Risks at the Institutional Scale Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Mapping and Understanding Bushfire and Natural Hazard Vulenrability and Risks porject. This project aims to address issues by investigating vulnerability and risks to natural hazards on a range of scales. It will look at institutions involved in natural disasters, such as local government, state government, federal government and the community and private sector; and assess how their specific values and rules interact with the broader values affected by natural disasters.

}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-2348, title = {Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {140}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Annual Project Report 2014{\textendash}2015, marks the halfway point of the project Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale. In recent months, the project has gathered significant momentum and we look forward to a very busy year ahead.

A major decision for the project and a key deliverable was to decide on the most suitable platform to host the economic geography and values at risk maps. This was achieved through a collaboration with the Centre for eResearch Data and Innovation (CeRDI) at Federation University, Ballarat. This collaboration will continue to develop the map

Two key reports for the project were produced:

  1. A report on the current state of risk ownership of strategic risk management of natural hazards in Australia, led by Celeste Young. This report was originally intended to be a brief desktop study but became a major report presenting a framework for assessing risk ownership and an analysis of publicly available documents.
  2. A report developing a framework for the whole project that combines risk management and the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework building on earlier work[1]. This will be released through the BNHCRC as a working paper and later converted into journal papers.

Regular meetings have been held and assisted through ongoing contact with individual end users, has informed our research enormously. Discussions and exchange of materials within the economic research cluster has led to plans to undertake common case studies, exchange ideas and work towards building compatible frameworks.

Additionally, we have undertaken a number of outreach activities including presentations to meetings and conferences, detailed in this report.

Planning is now underway for a series of four stakeholder workshops to take place in August. These will apply a small number of scenarios to the draft values at risk maps to further explore issues around values and risk ownership. The results will influence the further development of the economy geography and contribute to the assessment of risk ownership and governance at the institutional scale.

}, issn = {140}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Symons, J} } @article {bnh-2402, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impact}, year = {2015}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-2311, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {119}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC Project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the finantial year 2014/2015.\ The project team has made great progress this year as demonstrated by:

1)\ \ \  Developing a model framework, the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) framework, to provide best possible estimates on forest fuel load and moisture content and fire impacts on landscape values such as water resource generation and carbon storage.

2)\ \ \  Developing and tested a new software tool based in MATLAB to automatically derive detailed vegetation structure information from ground-based LiDAR

3)\ \ \  Successfully obtaining two student top-up scholarships from BNHCRC, what will have further positive impacts on the quality of our research.

4)\ \ \  Maintaining a healthy and engaging relationship with end users. The strongest connections have been with ACT Parks and Conservation, with whom the team collaborate closely and hands-on. However, the expectations are that once the project team have been able to demonstrate the practical value of research in the ACT, additional end users will find it easier to see how they can concretely engage in the research.

5)\ \ \  Publishing 1 journal paper, 4 conference abstracts and 2 milestone reports. In addition another manuscript is currently under review with Remote Sensing of Environment,top-ranked in the category of remote sensing.

6)\ \ \  Communicating progress on the research goals to end users by organising two workshops with operational stakeholders and other researchersandpublishing divulgative material in blogs and other media.

7)\ \ \  Receiving international researchers exchange visits and being approached by more than 15 domestic and international requests for PhD scholarships or postdoc positions on the topic of bushfire research. Of particular interest has been our innovative work in LiDAR vegetation mapping.

}, issn = {119}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-1555, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts project. This project will bring the industry closer to an operational broad-scale, spatially explicit fuel data collection system relevant to Vesta or Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment (OFHA) that can be used in existing fire behaviour models. The work will also help end-users to understand what information is easily and reliably collected from remote systems as a precursor to developing a new fire behaviour model based on the remote data.

}, author = {Albert van Dijk} } @conference {bnh-2100, title = {Mapping it out: a user-centred design framework for WebGIS public warnings - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @article {bnh-3413, title = {Mapping spatial and temporal variation in tree water use with an elevation model and gridded temperature data}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {200}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, pages = {249-257}, chapter = {249}, abstract = {

Tree water use is a major component of the water balance in forested catchments of semi-arid areas, as more than 80\% of the incoming rainfall may be used by overstory trees. Managers are unable to easily predict water use and thus water yield, for the majority of eucalypt-dominated catchments in south-east Australia, owing to the variety of dominant and co-dominant species, their distributions with respect to landform, and the lack of species- and landform-specific knowledge of the regulation of water use. Moreover, the costs incurred to quantify input variables for available complex, process-based models, generally encourage finding alternative approaches. This study tested the adequacy of using just two easily measured variables for estimating rates of tree water use, using a model derived from data-learning techniques. The inputs are (1) measured daily atmospheric demand for water and (2) potential incoming radiation derived from surface topography and solar declination. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic programming (GP) models were trained and validated using in situ observations of vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and estimates of potential solar radiation (Qpot), for a period of two years, at each of 10 forest stands across the high country of the states of New South Wales and Victoria. The models were tested using a random 50\% of the collected data that was independent, i.e. not used in model development.

Atmospheric demand was selected because it strongly affects tree water use irrespective of site and species. Potential solar radiation was selected as a proxy for radiation, because it is relatively easy to estimate for any location for which elevation data are available in digital format, and since radiation strongly controls photosynthesis (through stomatal behaviour) and thermal balance.

Genetic programming resulted in models better able to predict rates of sap flux. A selected GP model was able to describe the relationship between tree sap flux, VPD, and potential radiation with good accuracy, and was used to map tree water use across the catchment.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.027}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192314002512}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Joseph Henry and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-1532, title = {Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. This research will examine the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. The new information will be calibrated for use within existing fire and flood forecasting systems.

}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-1557, title = {Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Knowledge of landscape dryness is critical for the management and warning of fires, floods, heatwaves and landslips. This project will address fundamental limitations in our ability to prepare for these events. Currently landscape dryness is estimated using simplified soil moisture accounting systems developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. Similarly, flood prediction, runoff potential and water catchment/dam management also are not using the best available science and technology.
This paper describes research to be carried out by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre that will examine the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. The new information will be calibrated for use within existing fire and flood forecasting systems.
An inter-comparison will be performed of the traditional Keetch-Byram Drought Index and Soil Dryness Index with weather prediction models, satellite measurements, ground based measurements, and rainfall-runoff models. Soil moisture from weather prediction and reanalysis will be calibrated for the calculation of a high resolution historical dataset of KBDI and SDI. These datasets will be a valuable resource for researchers working on fire climatologies across Australia. The outputs of this project will improve Australia{\textquoteright}s ability to manage multiple hazard types and create a more resilient community, by developing a state of the art, world{\textquoteright}s best practice in soil moisture analysis that underpins flood, fire and heatwave forecasting.
Longer term work will explore the use of multi-model predictions and data assimilation to forecast soil dryness indices for operational application to fire, flood and heat wave hazards. The vegetation and soil parameterisations in current land surface models will be developed to match Australian conditions.

}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar and Yeo, Claire and John Bally and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-2337, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through improvements to land dryness measures and forecasts: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {131}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Australian people, businesses and environment are all vulnerable to wildfires, floods and other natural hazards. Deloitte Access Economics estimate the 2012 total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia exceeded $6 billion. Some examples of recent extreme events are the Millennium drought spanning from 1998 to 2009, the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, the 2011 cyclone Yasi and the summer 2010/2011 floods in eastern Australia.

Knowledge of landscape dryness is critical for the management and warning of fires, floods, heatwaves and landslips. This project will address fundamental limitations in our ability to prepare for these events. Currently landscape dryness is estimated using simplified soil moisture accounting systems developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. Similarly, flood prediction, runoff potential and water catchment/dam management also are not using the best available science and technology.

The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index used in Australia for operational fire warnings has a component representing fuel availability called the Drought Factor (DF). The DF is partly based on soil moisture deficit, calculated as either the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) or Mount{\textquoteright}s Soil Dryness Index (MSDI). The KBDI and MSDI are simplified water balance models driven by observation based daily rainfall and temperature. The KBDI and MSDI models oversimplify the parameterisations of evapotranspiration and runoff leading to significant errors.

A verification study has performed an inter-comparison of the traditional KBDI and MSDI with weather prediction models, satellite measurements and ground based measurements. The verification shows that soil moisture analyses from weather models have greater skill and smaller biases than the KBDI and MSDI. This is despite the weather prediction models having a coarse horizontal resolution and not using observed rainfall. Verification also shows that the remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer soil wetness product is of good quality. This study suggests that analyses of soil moisture can be greatly improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

The outputs of this project will improve Australia{\textquoteright}s ability to manage multiple hazard types and create a more resilient community, by developing a state of the art, world{\textquoteright}s best practice in soil moisture analysis that underpins flood, fire and heatwave forecasting.\ 

}, issn = {131}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar} } @article {bnh-2400, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts}, year = {2015}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar} } @article {bnh-1883, title = {A model-data fusion framework for estimating fuel properties, vegetation growth, carbon storage and the water balance at hillslope scale}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, abstract = {

This progress report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It documents the first steps in the development of a model-data fusion framework to provide estimates on historic fire impacts on landscape values, as well as potentially real-time estimates of current fuel load and flammability. Model-data fusion refers to the blending of observations with model predictions by considering the error in both.

A case study area was undertaken to analyse the value of alternative airborne and remote sensing observations in a model-data fusion framework. The data were used to set up a spatial forest growth, water use and carbon uptake model at high (25 m) spatial resolution and daily time step. The model shares a common heritage with the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L) water balance model used by the Bureau of Meteorology, and includes coupled models of water, carbon and biomass (fuel) dynamics that can be applied at high resolution. The model-data fusion framework is provisionally referred to here as the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) framework.

The case study comprised the period 2000-2010 for the western ACT, including native forests, plantation forests and grasslands. Much of the area was burnt in 2003. The data integrated within HiFRI included high-resolution Landsat imagery, a digital elevation model and daily climate grids. The case study demonstrated that it is feasible to produce estimates of water and carbon balance variables. The results show strong slope effects associated with solar irradiance. Integrating satellite observations also showed the expected influence from vegetation regrowth after the fire.

}, author = {Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-2508, title = {Modelling cyclone loss mitigation using claims analysis}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This paper follows from a series of recent studies conducted by the authors and Suncorp Group Limited which analysed insurance claims from Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yasi (Queensland, 2011) to determine typical drivers of insured loss (i.e. roofing failures, etc.) for residential housing. Using the claims data from TC Yasi, the benefits of mitigation were broadly estimated by reducing claim values based on survey results from builders and assessors on expected loss reduction in properties with mitigation features. This information was provided to Urbis (project consultant to Suncorp) for cost-benefit analysis of the projected benefits of mitigation over the next 50 years in Queensland. In this paper, the claims manipulation approach to modelling loss mitigation is presented and the results for TC Yasi are briefly discussed.

}, author = {Daniel Smith and David Henderson and Lucy M Terza} } @conference {bnh-2203, title = {Modelling the Fire Weather of the Coonabarabran Fire of 13 January 2013}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

We will exhibit state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations and radar imagery for Sunday 13 January 2013, with a specific focus on the region of the Coonabarabran fire which started at around 1600 Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on 12 January in the Warrumbungle National Park. The simulations show a complicated range of meteorology including weather features that would affect fire behaviour critical for fire-fighter safety.

Features such as convection outflow gust fronts are displayed in the simulations in the north-westerly wind ahead of the main wind change, together with boundary-layer rolls, and sea-breeze-like wind changes proceeding inland from the coast. In addition, small-scale vortices are modelled on the main change: these lead to hazardous local spikes in the modelled Forest Fire Danger Index. Exceptionally strong north/south temperature gradients were observed over inland New South Wales on the Sunday and these are also seen in the simulations.

Sunday 13 January brought difficult conditions for fire fighting. When the fire was declared {\textquotedblleft}out{\textquotedblright} on 24 January, it had burnt an area of 55,210 ha west of Coonabarabran, 53 homes, 131 other buildings and 95\% of the Warrumbungle National Park.

The simulation has been performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involves a sequence of nested limited area model runs embedded in the ACCESS global model run, with a finest grid spacing of 550 m. Our analysis will focus on how well the simulations capture the meteorological factors that promote extreme fire behaviour. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than current operational ones.

}, author = {Robert Fawcett and Yeo, Claire and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-2241, title = {National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year three report}, number = {116}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of the Probabilistic Framework Project is to develop a new consequence-based fire danger rating system able to integrate a wide range of variables and link their complex interactions to the probability of property loss. The project aims at delivering a spatially-explicit framework capable of generating daily maps representing the distribution of the probability of property loss at 5km spatial resolution.

In year two, a {\textquotedblleft}consequence-based{\textquotedblright} system (developed in Year 1) was refined and applied in two case study regions: the Sydney Basin, and the Victorian East Central Risk Landscape. The BN framework was successfully integrated with GIS facilities to generate spatially explicit predictions of the probability of a fire spreading to and reaching the urban interface and then burning there at high intensity (\>4000kWm-1, hereafter unsuppressible fires). Overall, the model indicated that the highest risk areas may potentially be identified by accounting for not only fire weather, but also fuels, the distribution of property, plus features inherent in the landscape that influenced fire spread.

The objective for the third stage of the project was to develop and test an operational application of the daily fire danger rating Bayesian Network model for two case study areas - Sydney Basin and the East Central Risk Landscape in Victoria. In this report, we present the results of the operational application of the model, quantify sensitivities of the model and finally we make recommendations for the future of the modelling approach.
We developed a prototype Fire Danger Rating (FDR) website for updating fire risk in real-time (30-60 seconds per case study). Maps are generated through use of landscape data and additional daily 3pm weather data downloaded from the Bureau of Meteorology. Across the 2014/15 season spatial variation was seen between the predictions from the FDR and that of FFDI. It is important to note that these variations exist despite the fact FFDI is an input into the model influencing ignition probability, fire spread and fire intensity. One of the main reasons for these differences is that FFDI only accounts for weather and does not consider topography, fuels, spatial arrangement of assets or the directionality of the wind.

The sensitivity analysis suggested that the model is performing well relative to expectations. Logical relationships and coarse scale patterns are holding true. The results indicate strong reliance on the empirical analysis of ignition probabilities in the landscape. FFDI was found to be the input node that required the greatest accuracy.

A number of recommendations were made by state agencies during an end of study review of the project. These included expanding the FDR website to new landscapes, with particular interest in assessing the model for grassland environments. In addition, the group thought the model had considerable capacity for longer term planning of fuel treatments, accounting for changing human patterns and future climates.

Overall, the project has succeeded in delivering a spatially-explicit framework capable of generating daily maps representing the distribution of the probability of property loss at 5km spatial resolution.

}, issn = {116}, author = {Trent Penman and Parkins, K.A. and Mascaro, S. and Chong, Derek and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2409, title = {Natural hazard exposure information framework}, year = {2015}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-2349, title = {Natural hazard exposure information modelling framework: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {130}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure is a word often used to describe {\textquotedblleft}what is at risk{\textquotedblright} that includes people, buildings, infrastructure, businesses, hazardous substances and primary industries. The annual report is to outline the achievements of milestones of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC is funded {\textquotedblleft}Natural Hazards Exposure Information Modelling Framework{\textquotedblright}. The framework will support the development and maintainance of nationally consistent exposure information systems to support decision making in disaster management. The project has reviewed the current literature and information services; engaged end users and researchers for future requirements; and, is continuing the gap analysis.

The literature review has helped the project to understand the relevant practices and future trends at international, national, regional and local levels. In particular, the review highlighted the exposure data requirements to enable researchers to develop models for better impact analysis. The review has also contributed to collating the requirements for information needed by decision makers for response and strategic policy initiatives.

The project has conducted an on-line survey for the review of exposure information capabilities in Australia to ascertain existing data and information capabilities for DRR. The survey has identified significant gaps in the existing data provisions and translation of information for evidenced based disaster risk response, recovery and reduction decision making. Geoscience Australia{\textquoteright}s National Exposure Information System has a nationally consistent approach and provides exposure information for buildings and population. Most of the information is derived statistically and provided at SA1 aggregated level. Emergency Information Coordination Unit, NSW has comprehensive information for Sydney and limted information for other areas in their jurisdiction. The Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE), Melbourne City provides comprehensive information about business and economic activity. Notwithstanding these examples, the overall lack of national consistency in existing data and information capabilities is a limiting factor in the decision making.

The project also conducted a Stakeholder Engagement Workshop with an aim to identify the exposure information needs of researchers and end users in Australia. The workshop provided an opportunity for thirty six participants representing decision makers, emergency managers, planners, researchers, asset managers and the insurance sector to outline their future requirements. Mind-maps presented at the workshop enabled us to observe overlapping concepts and data elements in the three exposure components of disaster exposure information. Stakeholder engagement is continuing with the researchers and subject matter experts. Recommendations were drawn to develop a standardised, nationally consistent and scalable natural hazards exposure information framework for Australia.

The collective views of data managers, researchers and end users have informed the basis for exposure information requirements to develop a consistent, standardised exposure information framework that will support vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction and socio-economic impact analysis.\ 

}, issn = {130}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-2342, title = {Natural hazard mitigation decision support system: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {135}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Decision support systems (DSS) that contain integrated models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component for robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning.\  Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use and climate.\  Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning of natural disaster impact mitigation options is being developed as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

Throughout 2014-2015, the project team has focussed on the production of a framework for the {\textquoteleft}development{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}use{\textquoteright} of the DSS. The {\textquoteleft}development{\textquoteright} aspects propose a generic framework for the integration of models to bridge the science-policy gap through a collaboration between scientists, end users and IT specialists. The {\textquoteleft}use{\textquoteright} process focusses on the application of the generic DSS to a region of interest; in this project three case study locations are considered including Greater Adelaide, Greater Melbourne and Tasmania. This involves collaboration between modellers, stakeholders and facilitators to customise, calibrate and validate the case-study specific integrated models. Subsequently, the integrated model is used to support a Storyline and Simulation (SAS)[1] approach that attempts to develop scenarios through a participatory process, wherein the DSS helps build and assess these scenarios through an iterative process.

Additional to the production of this overarching framework has been specific model development to ensure appropriate models are available to consider hazard risk within the integrated DSS. Risk models for flooding, coastal inundation and bushfire have been conceptually developed and will be applied to each case study as appropriate. Each model focuses on changing risk spatially and temporally.

The Greater Adelaide DSS is the first case study application of the generic framework, which began with an extensive intial stakeholder engagement phase in September 2014. This involved identification of key stakeholders, questionnaries, interviews and a whole-day workshop at the University of Adelaide on the 18th of September. From there, critical external drivers and uncertainties were identified, along with aspects of risk and indicators of hazard impact and mitigation performance. These factors have subsequently been incorporated within the DSS for Greater Adelaide and a proto-type DSS will be completed in time for further stakeholder engagement around scenario development and DSS use in October/November 2015.

Greater Melbourne and Tasmania have also begun to progress as case studies. Key contacts have been developed in each location, and with the assistance of these contacts, data and model availability have been discussed for each location, along with identification of stakeholders relevant for each location. The first stage of stakeholder engagement for these case studies, as described for Greater Adelaide, will occur in October/November 2015.\ 

}, issn = {135}, author = {Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Graeme Riddell and Charles Newland and Michael O{\textquoteright}Flaherty} } @article {bnh-1536, title = {Natural Hazard Mitigation Decision Support System Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Natural Hazard Mitigation Decision Support System project. This project will develop an integrated natural hazard mitigation DSS framework, which will be used to develop prototype DDSs for three case studies.

}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-1541, title = {Natural Hazards Exposure Information Modelling Framework Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This annual report has been completed as a component of the Natural Hazards Exposure Information Modelling Framework project for the year 2013/14.\ This research project will draw upon reviewing the current literature on exposure information requirements and existing capabilities to develop a framework to improve information for disaster mitigation capabilities.

}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-1946, title = {Navigating scientific uncertainty in wildfire and flood risk mitigation: A qualitative review}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {13}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, pages = {255-265}, chapter = {255}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are complex events whose mitigation has generated a diverse field of specialised natural science expertise that is drawn upon by a wide range of practitioners and decision-makers. In this paper, the authors bring natural science research, risk studies and science and technology studies together in aid of clarifying the role scientific uncertainties play in the mitigation of natural hazards and their associated risks. Given that uncertainty is a necessary part of scientific practise and method, those engaged in risk mitigation must manage these scientific uncertainties in their decision-making just as, equally, social science researchers, stakeholders and others hoping to understand risk mitigation must understand their character and influence. To this end, the authors present the results of an extensive literature review of scientific uncertainties as they emerge in relation to wildfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. The results are both a survey of these major uncertainties and a novel categorisation within which a variety of expert and non-expert audiences might discuss and translate the scientific uncertainties that are encountered and managed in risk mitigation.

}, keywords = {Wildfire; Flood; Risk mitigation; Social science; Australia}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.06.010}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091530025X}, author = {Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir} } @conference {bnh-1637, title = {NSW RFS Bush Fire Household Assessment Tool Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

The web based NSW Rural Fire Service Bush Fire Household Assessment Tool provides advice to the community to assist with making an informed decision on whether it is safe to stay and defend their property. The new website is based on an extensive body of scientific knowledge and has been developed via a successful partnership between NSW Rural Fire Service and the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at University of Wollongong.
A Bayesian Network has been implemented as the modelling framework to underpin the tool. The first step of the model calculates the Radiant Heat Flux to determine if the location and the structure are adequate to protect people to safely shelter in place. A Bayesian Network is used to assess responses for critical elements of preparedness developed from published expert knowledge. The model also assists NSW Rural Fire Service staff in assessing development applications and adequacy of existing controls for community protection plans.
The complexity of the model is not visible to people using the website. A member of the public will access the website and enter their property address triggering a series of spatial queries to determine the direction of greatest bush fire risk and the characteristics of the risk posed. A series of questions relating to the construction of their house, their personal capacity to defend, the available equipment and the conditions of the grounds of the property are then used to determine their capacity to defend their property. The automated calculations and interactive graphics provide visual assistance with answering critical but often poorly understood questions.

}, author = {M O{\textquoteright}Halloran} } @article {bnh-1531, title = {Optimisation of Fuel Reduction Burning Regimes for Fuel Reduction Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. The key objective of this research project is to develop a spatially explicit model of the effects\ of fuel reduction burning regimes, including fires of different size, on fuel loads, vegetation\ composition, carbon balance and hydrological cycles, both individually and in aggregate.

}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-2338, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {132}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/205}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australian eucalypt forests are among the few forest types where prescribed burning{\textemdash}including fuel reduction fires, slash burning after forestry operations and ecological burning{\textemdash}has been practiced for many years. While empirical evidence shows that prescribed burning can reduce the incident and extent of unplanned fires in Australia, the integration of environmental values into fire management operations is not well defined and requires further research and development. In practice, the priority for prescribed burning is for effective mitigation of risk to life and property while environmental management objectives including maintenance of high water yield and quality, reduction of CO2 emissions, carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity may be reasonably constrained by this priority. Our research progress towards optimisation of fuel reduction burning with water, carbon and other environmental outcomes during the past 12 months is described. Highlights include the commencement of fieldwork in Victoria and the ACT, a review of current frameworks and decision systems for planning prescribed burning and {\textquoteleft}road testing{\textquoteright} of our Sampling Schema by End User agencies. A PhD student whose project will add value to our research was successful in gaining a BNHCRC top up scholarship.

}, issn = {132}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-2399, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, year = {2015}, author = {Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-2354, title = {Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {147}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Out of Uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering project aims to support the development of new and more inclusive models of volunteering for the emergency management sector. Its underlying purpose is to assist the sector to harness the benefits of engaging with and supporting a wider range of {\textquoteleft}non-traditional{\textquoteright} and unaffiliated volunteers while addressing associated risks.

The three-year project is being undertaken by researchers at the Centre for Risk and Community Safety at RMIT University, led by Professor John Handmer. The project methodology involves three key activities: literature reviews, case studies, and a cross-case analysis and evaluation of alternative emergency volunteering models.

A key outcome from the project will be practical guidance for end users on supporting key types of non-traditional emergency volunteering.

Key outputs from the project this year included:

Key stakeholder engagement activities this year were: a 3-monthly project newsletter, an annual stakeholder communication workshop in October 2014, a project teleconference to assist case study selection in March 2015, and participation in the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s Research Advisory Forum in April 2015.

Three PhD students undertaking associated projects also began or advanced their research this year. Their proejcts focus on: the use of volunteered geographic information in community engagement for bushfire preparation (Billy Haworth, University of Western Sydney), community-led recovery in the 2013 Forcett bushfires in Tasmanias (Fiona Jennings, RMIT University), and social capital, inclusive volunteer engagement and community resilience (Julie Molloy, RMIT University).

The next year of the project will see the Out of Uniform project move from conducting case studies to conducting cross-case analysis and beginning work to evaluate alternative models of emergency volunteering through workshops with end users.

}, issn = {147}, author = {John Handmer and J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-3454, title = {Overturning of precast RC columns in conditions of moderate ground shaking}, journal = {Earthquakes and Structures}, volume = {8}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {1-18}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

A simple method of assessing the risk of overturning of precast reinforced concrete columns is presented in this paper. The displacement-based methodology introduced herein is distinguished from conventional force-based codified methods of aseismic design of structures. As evidenced by results from field tests precast reinforced concrete columns can be displaced to a generous limit without sustaining damage and then fully recover from most of the displacement afterwards. Realistic predictions of the displacement demand of such (rocking) system in conjunction with the displacement capacity estimates enable fragility curves for overturning to be constructed. The interesting observation from the developed fragility curves is that the probability of failure of the precast soft-storey column decreases with increasing size of the column importantly illustrating the "size effect" phenomenon.

}, doi = {10.12989/eas.2015.8.1.001}, url = {http://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=TPTPJW_2015_v8n1_1}, author = {Bidur Kafle and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @conference {bnh-7447, title = {Owner-Driven Reconstruction in India: A case-study of Kosi River Floods in Bihar}, booktitle = {5th International conference on building resilience}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, address = {Newcastle, Australia}, abstract = {

An Owner-Driven Reconstruction (ODR) approach was adopted in the Indian state of Bihar, post 2008 Kosi River floods. This ODR was unique as it was piloted prior to policy formation. The paper discusses preliminary observations from empirical investigations conducted in two settlements of Bihar - Orlaha and Puraini, during 2012 and 2014. The aim was to identify {\textquoteleft}key processes{\textquoteright} or effectiveness of ODR approaches that enhance long-term disaster-resilience of housing and community autonomy. From the case-study investigations, one of the themes {\textendash} community facilitation is discussed, with its positives and negatives for future replication.

}, keywords = {disaster recovery, India, Owner-Driven-Reconstruction, Participation, resilience}, url = {https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/38780899/ANDROID_Doctoral_School_Proceedings_2015.pdf?1442351518=\&response-content-disposition=inline\%3B+filename\%3DProceedings_of_the_ANDROID_Doctoral_Scho.pdf\&Expires=1603196280\&Signature=cV4Dxewt0EFvZIrIiow2VHjBYNu}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Beau Beza} } @article {bnh-2570, title = {People and their animals in emergencies: snapshots from past emergency events}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, abstract = {

People attach emotionally to animals. This is particularly demonstrated at times of stress, with natural hazard emergency events such as bushfires and floods being peak stress times. As a descriptive review, this paper considers visual and written evidence from past prominent emergencies that records interaction between people and animals. From these key examples some recurring common themes emerge. - See more at: https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-15$\#$sthash.8FolFs7g.dpuf

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-15}, author = {Rachel Westcott} } @article {bnh-2310, title = {Policies, institutions and governance of natural hazards: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {125}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The resilience of a community is dependent on more than just engineering and\ preparation. Government policies, institutions and governance arrangements\ fundamentally affect how individuals and communities prepare for, respond to\ and recover from natural hazard events. Understanding relevant institutions and\ how they influence disaster management is essential to develop whole of\ government and whole of community understanding of risks and how to
manage them.\ This research project will shed invaluable light on current policy, institutional and\ governance arrangements with a view to developing new approaches to\ shared responsibility (COAG 2011) to increase community resilience to all natural\ hazards. This project will deliver:

}, issn = {125}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-1533, title = {Policies, Institutions and Governance (PIGS) of Natural Hazards Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the PIGS of Natural Hazards project. This project is looking at institutional barriers to developing resilience. Barriers may be established by laws, policies and the institutions that are set up to govern relationships across society.

}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-1962, title = {Post-tropical cyclone fuel assessment and bushfire risk}, number = {105}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire managers need better estimates of fuel hazard and loading in post-cyclone damaged vegetation\ so they can more accurately predict the behaviour of potential fires and plan fire mitigation and\ suppression strategies. In February 2015, Tropical Cyclone Marcia caused massive defoliation across the\ central coastal region of Queensland, uprooting trees and snapping off stems and branches. The\ magnitude of the damage changed the fuel hazard and loads in forest areas. This study examined a\ proportion of the forests damaged to assess fuel hazard and loading of fine fuels and downed woody\ material.

A visual assessment technique was developed and tested to provide ratings of cyclone damage and\ fuel loads. Visual cyclone damage scores reflect the quantity and arrangement of the fuel to better\ predict fire behaviour and improve planning mitigation and suppression strategies. The study\ demonstrated that severity of a cyclone can increase the fire spread and fireline intensity by 1.5 and 2.5\ fold respectively and impede fire line access. Results were used to develop a supplementary field guide\ that can be used with the existing fuel hazard guides.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-4-8}, issn = {105}, author = {J.S. Gould} } @article {bnh-2314, title = {Practical decision tools for improved decision-making in complex, time-constrained and multi-team environments: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {126}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report presents information about the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC funded project: Cognitive Decision Strategies, which is concerned with decision making, team monitoring and organisational performance in emergency management.\ 

As the incidents associated with natural hazards increase in complexity, duration, and the number of agencies involved, there is likely to be an increased frequency of degraded operational situations, breakdowns within and between teams and the occurrence of errors. These problems will play out within the context of a decreasing tolerance in the community and their political representatives to emergency management coordination failure.\  The current project has three main research streams that aim to: Provide enhanced methods of making decisions in complex situations; develop methods to better monitor teams to detect breakdowns and disconnects that can impair operational performance; and to develop enhanced methods for agencies to evaluate and learn from their operational performance.

Towards this end the research team have visited 18 agencies in Australia and New Zealand to collect data and discuss the issues around decision making, team monitoring and to identify how agencies currently assess and learn from reviewing their organisational performance.\  The team has discussed the research and/or collected data with: chief officers, deputy chief officers, principle rural fire officers (NZ), state coordination personnel, regional coordination personnel, and incident management team personnel.\  These personnel represented urban fire brigades, rural fire agencies, land management agencies, state emergency services, council officers with responsibility for search and rescue, the Red Cross and the National Rural Fire Authority (New Zealand).\ \  In addition, we have conducted a number of research studies and observations, including: Literature reviews, semi-structured interviews with senior staff, observations of real-life and simulated events and an online survey.

This has provided the team with information about current practice in decision making, team monitoring and learning from evaluating organisational performance across Australia and New Zealand.\  Comparing current practice to the research literature provides opportunities to develop enhanced methods of developing decision making, monitoring teams and assessing organisational performance.\  For example, using skill-based training to enhance peripheral vision \& memory in decision making, developing breakdown indicators that can indicate a malfunctioning team for team monitoring, and unpacking the values and challenged that enable and constrain learning from reviews of organisational performance.\  These strategies and methods will be investigated, developed and evaluated through close consultation with end-users in the next stages of the project.

}, issn = {126}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Keith Fitzgerald and Grunwald, J and Rainbird, Sophia} } @article {bnh-1530, title = {Practical Decision Tools for Improved Decision-Making in Complex Situations Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. The objectives of the project are to develop practical ways to help people cope in complex situations and to better recover from breakdowns and errors. Thus this project seeks to develop cognitive decision tools and heuristics that can be used to enhance strategic level decision making in complex situations.

}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-1810, title = {Predicting delay in residents{\textquoteright} decisions on defending v. evacuating through antecedents of decision avoidance}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {032015}, pages = {153-161}, type = {Journal}, chapter = {153}, abstract = {

Many residents of at-risk areas delay committing to defence or evacuation as their response to wildfire threat. This study compared several plausible causes of decision delay and determined that householders{\textquoteright} delay was best predicted by the difference in perceived values of defending\ v.\ evacuating, resulting in decision delay when both options get closer in attractiveness.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF12213}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF12213.htm}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {bnh-2749, title = {Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {250}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, chapter = {173}, abstract = {

Debris flows are an important erosion process in wildfire-prone landscapes. Predicting their frequency and magnitude can therefore be critical for quantifying risk to infrastructure, people and water resources. However, the factors contributing to the frequency and magnitude of events remain poorly understood, particularly in regions outside western USA. Against this background, the objectives of this study were to i) quantify sediment yields from post-fire debris flows in southeast Australian highlands and ii) model the effects of landscape attributes on debris flow susceptibility. Sediment yields from post-fire debris flows (113{\textendash}294\ t\ ha-\ 1) are 2{\textendash}3 orders of magnitude higher than annual background erosion rates from undisturbed forests. Debris flow volumes ranged from 539 to 33,040 m3\ with hillslope contributions of 18{\textendash}62\%. The distribution of erosion and deposition above the fan were related to a stream power index, which could be used to model changes in yield along the drainage network. Debris flow susceptibility was quantified with a logistic regression and an inventory of 315 debris flow fans deposited in the first year after two large wildfires (total burned area\ =\ 2919 km2). The differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR\ or burn severity), local slope, radiative index of dryness (AI) and rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar) were significant predictors in a susceptibility model, which produced excellent results in terms identifying channels that were eroded by debris flows (Area Under Curve,\ AUC\ =\ 0.91). Burn severity was the strongest predictor in the model (AUC\ =\ 0.87 when\ dNBR\ is used as single predictor) suggesting that fire regimes are an important control on sediment delivery from these forests. The analysis showed a positive effect of\ AI\ on debris flow probability in landscapes where differences in moisture regimes due to climate are associated with large variation in soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results from this study based in the southeast Australian highlands provide a novel basis upon which to model sediment delivery from post-fire debris flows. The modelling approach has wider relevance to post-fire debris flow prediction both from risk management and landscape evolution perspectives.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X15301355}, author = {Petter Nyman and Smith, Hugh G. and Christopher Sherwin and Christoph Langhans and Lane, Patrick N. J. and Gary J. Sheridan} } @article {bnh-1544, title = {Pre-Disaster Multi-Hazard and Economic Loss Estimation Model Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14. The overall goal of this research program is twofold. First, it will estimate the heterogeneous effects of different types of natural disasters (i.e., bushfires, floods, storms, and earthquakes) on both national and state level economic growth in Australia. Second, it aims to conduct a pilot study to compile the multi-hazard and vulnerability maps of the State of Victoria, which will facilitate quantifying potential disaster damage and losses and their relationships with the regional economic growth parameters in Australia.

}, author = {Abbas Rajabifard} } @conference {bnh-1561, title = {A Pre-Disaster Multi-Hazard Damage and Economic Loss Estimation Model Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Australia has witnessed a series of natural disasters throughout history that significantly affects its development trajectory. Examples include: cyclones Mahina (1899) in northern Queensland and Tracy (1974) in Darwin; floods in New South Wales (1955) and South-east Queensland (1974; 2011; 2012); earthquake in Newcastle (1989); landslide in Thredbo (1997); and bushfires in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and Australia Capital Territory (Black Saturday 2009; Canberra Fires 2003; Ash Wednesday 1983; Black Tuesday 1967; and Black Friday 1939). The resulting economic impact of these natural disasters is estimated to cost an average of AU$1.14 billion annually (BTE, 2001). This alarming statistic alone, along with its ever growing vulnerability due to rapid economic expansion in Australia, makes natural disasters a high priority issue for policy makers. In recent catastrophic natural disaster events, the emergency response of Australia has proven to be very effective at saving human lives. However the mitigation and preparedness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) appear to be less successful in avoiding the adverse economic impacts of natural disasters. One of the significant problems observed in this connection is the lack of effort to estimate the full economic impact of natural hazards, taking into account all the affected sections of the economy. This effort should consider not only the primary effects of the natural disasters, but also its secondary effects due to losses propagated through the economy arising out of possible inter-sectoral linkages. In order to achieve a paradigm shift from reactive response to a proactive risk reduction culture, disaster risk reduction measures need to be integrated into the economic development process. With this in mind, this paper discusses the shortcomings of current approaches and identifies the steps required for developing a system for increasing the disaster risk resilience of Australia.

}, author = {Abbas Rajabifard and Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Katie Potts and Muhamman Rahman and Mohsen Kalantari and Prasad Bhattacharya} } @article {bnh-2343, title = {Pre-disaster multihazard damage and economic loss estimation model: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {136}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The economic impacts are often overlooked in management planning as the effects are not immediately felt and instead focus is put onto emergency response systems. In Australia, the disaster management arrangements across all stages (mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery) have proven to be very successful at saving lives and property, however, in terms of the adverse economic impacts of the natural disasters, less attention and resources have been allocated. In Australia, natural disasters are estimated to cost an average of AU$1.14 billion annually. This makes natural disasters a significant issue for policy makers.

One of the substantial problems identified which increases this problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact of natural hazards, considering all the affected sections of the economy. This effort should take into account not only the primary effects of the natural disasters, but also its lingering, all-important secondary effects due to the pervasive losses throughout the economy emanating from various sectors within the economy.

To address this problem this project has identified at least two major requirements that seek immediate attention to bridge the related gap. Firstly, a disaster risk assessment system needs to be developed which provides adequately quantifiable potential damages as a result of different types of disasters for regions of Australia. Secondly, a framework needs to be established to estimate the indirect economic losses. With the identification of the disaster-specific potential damage and losses, policymakers at different levels will be able to formulate disaster risk reduction-inclusive development policies to mainstream disaster resilience practices. Hence, modelling the potential impacts of a full range of natural disasters remains highly critical towards designing more informed national economic policies.

This project is primarily an economics based project applied to the scenario of natural disaster events within the context of Australia. To support the outcomes of the project and to enable a greater understanding of the outcomes the findings are displayed using a spatial visualization platform to facilitate improved decision making.

Since the commencement of the project the research team has been focused on delivering outcomes and working towards the final output. As such, to date a number of outcomes have already been achieved: development of the multi-hazard map for Victoria; development of a method to estimate the effect of natural disasters on sectoral economic growth of Australia; and numerous publications including a refereed paper accepted for Australian Conference of Economics 2015, a paper accepted for oral presentation at AFAC 2015, a report on the multi-hazard map for Victoria, a report on exposure analysis, a report on the damage and consequence data from past hazard event in Victoria, and a paper accepted and delivered for oral presentation at AFAC 2014.\ 

}, issn = {136}, author = {Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-2564, title = {The preparedness and evacuation behaviour of pet owners in emergencies and natural disasters}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This research describes the preparedness and the actual, or anticipated, evacuation behaviours of a sample of 352 pet owners in Australian who experienced a range of natural disasters or emergencies. Three quarters experienced a bushfire or flood (42 per cent and 33 per cent respectively) and around a third (34 per cent) evacuated their homes.\ 
Of those who evacuated, 29 per cent did so in less than one hour and 58 per cent returned within two days. Over two-thirds (69 per cent) stayed with family or friends when they evacuated. Many people evacuated with multiple combinations of pets. The majority of those who evacuated kept some of their pets with them (81 per cent) and 15 per cent left some pets behind; either enclosed in the home, released to escape, or unable to find/catch. Around the time of evacuation 42 per cent sought some form of immediate assistance, help or advice, with evacuation of their pets. Most turned to neighbours and friends (30 per cent), social media (9 per cent), or emergency services (8 per cent).\ 
In general, around a third of the sample felt they were {\textquoteleft}not really prepared{\textquoteright} or were {\textquoteleft}unprepared{\textquoteright} for the emergency event. Of those who reported they were prepared, around 70 per cent had planned to keep all their pets with them if they evacuated.\ 
The results of this study highlight the complexity of pet composition and the requirement for detailed household evacuation planning and early enactment of plans. In addition, the need for responsible pet ownership and pet-friendly destinations on evacuation was a clear requirement, with decisions to evacuate being influenced by this.\ 
It is hoped that the results of this study will provide a useful reference for emergency management agencies and aid planning and engagement with pet owners.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-05}, author = {Mel Taylor and Erin Lynch and Penny Burns and Greg Eustace} } @article {bnh-2572, title = {Progress made with public awareness-raising activities aimed at building both rural and urban disaster resilience}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Professor John Handmer and Dr Briony Towers, RMIT, summarise the findings of research into informing populations about disaster risk.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-01-05}, author = {John Handmer and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-2571, title = {Progress made with school curricula, education material and relevant training in disaster risk reduction and recovery concepts and practices}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

Professor Kevin Ronan, University of Central Queensland, summarises the findings of research into the progress of including disaster risks concepts into school curriculum and training programs.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-01-04}, author = {Kevin Ronan} } @conference {bnh-1622, title = {Promoting Child Resilience to Disasters: Policy, Practice, Research Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

The recently published Synthesis Report on the Post-2015 Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2013) places children at the centre of successful adaptation to disasters: {\textquotedblleft}In particular children and youth have been singled out as having specific needs in terms of school safety, child-centred risk assessments and risk communication. But, more importantly, if appropriately educated and motivated on disaster risk reduction, they will lead and become the drivers of change.{\textquotedblright} Equally, here in Australia, the role of disaster education in managing disaster risk has been recognised as a major priority in the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (Australian Government, 2011). While Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR) is increasingly popular across agencies and organisations around the world, rigorous empirical research on the efficacy of the approach is limited. This three-year program of research is planning a range of projects, unified through various means, and an integrated narrative, to increase the reach and impact of CC-DRR education within communities in Australia and New Zealand.

}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers and Kate McAuslan and Vicki Johnson and Eva Alisic and Susan Davie and John Handmer and Katharine Haynes and Nick Ireland and Marla Petal and Avianto Amri and David Johnston} } @article {bnh-1882, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus: A Literature Review}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, abstract = {

A pyrocumulus cloud is a dense cumuliform cloud associated with fire or volcanic activity (although here we report only on fire pyrocumulus).\  It is produced by intense heating of air, which leads to deep ascent and subsequent condensation when the rising air becomes saturated due to cooling from adiabatic expansion.\  The condensation is evident in cloud formation.\  The process is similar to conventional convective cloud formation, when a lifting mechanism (e.g., orographic lifting, intersection of two air masses) raises air beyond where the cloud forms (the lifting condensation level) to where the additional condensational heating makes the air positively buoyant (the level of free convection).\  Turbulent entrainment of cooler and drier air from outside the rising airmass dilutes the cloud buoyancy, which can limit the size and growth of the cloud (e.g., fair weather cumulus).\  At the opposite extreme, larger and more intense lifted regions can accelerate to the tropopause. As they cross the tropopause into the much more stable air in the stratosphere, they become cooler than the ambient air, and hence negatively buoyant. However, they may possess enough momentum that they overshoot the level of neutral buoyancy\  Outflowing air at the tropopause gives these cumulonimbus clouds their classic anvil shape (a nimbus cloud is a cloud that produces precipitation).\  Evaporation of moisture by entrained dry air in these clouds leads to cooling and descent and the release of previously suspended precipitation, which can result in heavy downpours and intense downburst winds.

}, author = {KJ Tory and W. Thurston} } @conference {bnh-2510, title = {Recommended Site Classification Scheme and Design Spectrum Model for Regions of Lower Seismicity}, booktitle = {Tenth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering Building an Earthquake-Resilient Pacific }, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, abstract = {

This paper proposes a site classification scheme and a design spectrum (DS) model for different ground conditions, with site natural period as the key parameter. The proposed model has a particular emphasis on the phenomenon of resonant-like amplification behaviour in soil sites, which have not been explicitly considered in existing code models. The need to address the effects of soil resonance is particularly justified in regions of lower seismicity, where structures are typically of limited ductility with low energy dissipation capability. Significantly, the mitigating effects of a very flexible soil site resulting in reduction in the level of seismic demand on low rise buildings is a distinctive feature of the proposed model which has been well validated by comparison with results obtained from computational site response analysis of soil columns derived from real borehole records, as well as from strong motion data recorded in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Nelson Lam} } @article {bnh-3415, title = {Reducing deaths from driving into floodwaters}, journal = {Crisis Response Journal}, volume = {11}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, pages = {66-67}, chapter = {66}, abstract = {

Motorists entering floodwaters are a major cause of flood fatalities: fast flowing water, even just 30cm deep, can wash a car off the road and drivers may be unable to see what lies beneath flooded roads, with large sections being washed away.

}, url = {http://www.crisis-response.com/archive/article.php?num=990}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Chas Keys} } @article {bnh-3845, title = {Reducing the risk of house loss due to wildfires}, journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, volume = {67}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {12-25}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Wildfires will continue to reach people and property regardless of management effort in the landscape. House-based strategies are therefore required to complement the landscape strategies in order to reduce the extent of house loss. Here we use a Bayesian Network approach to quantify the relative influence of preventative and suppressive management strategies on the probability of house loss in Australia. Community education had a limited effect on the extent to which residents prepared their property hence a limited effect on the reduction in risk of house loss, however hypothetically improving property preparedness did reduce the risk of house loss. Increasing expenditure on suppression resources resulted in a greater reduction in the risk of loss than preparedness. This increase had an interaction effect with increasing the distance between vegetation and the houses. The extent to which any one action can be implemented is limited by social, environmental and economic factors.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815214003776?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Trent Penman and Ann E. Nicholson and Ross Bradstock and Luke Collins and Sandra H. Penman and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-1644, title = {Research Forum 2014: proceedings of the Research Forum at the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Wellington}, abstract = {

With a focus on the science of natural hazards the popular Research Forum is an annual lead-in to the joint CRC and AFAC conference.

The collected proceedings of the 2014 Research Forum, held as part of the 2014 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC conference in Wellington, New Zealand, are now available online.

The sold-out Forum included 31 presentations from various Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC researchers, as well as researchers from other organisations. The presentations covered both emerging and advanced projects across the full range of fire and natural hazards research.

Each presenter had the option of submitting their paper for external review, with 22 papers collated here in the formal proceedings. The papers are arranged in the order they were presented during the Forum.

Topics covered include: managing severe weather, community understanding, building and engineering, economics, forecasting, search and rescue, fire-plume dynamics, emergency management performance, disaster support systems and assessment tools, scenario planning, volunteering, child-centred risk reduction, managing animals in disasters and historical lessons from emergencies.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-3-1}, author = {Rumsewicz, M} } @conference {bnh-2169, title = {Research proceedings from the 2015 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC annual conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

The full research proceedings\ from the 2015 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference, held in Adelaide from 1-3 September. The document contains two sections. Section one is peer reviewed, full conference papers. Section two is non peer reviewed extended abstracts.

}, isbn = {978-0-9941696-5-5}, author = {Rumsewicz, M} } @article {bnh-2408, title = {Resilience and Mitigation through Hardening the Built Environment}, year = {2015}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-2406, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events on the coast: Storm surge}, year = {2015}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-2333, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events on the coast: storm surge - Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {122}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is the problem?

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

The storm events that occurred on the southeast coast of Australia during 1974 are the most significant and recent in memory in terms of coastal impact associated with clustered events. Traditional wisdom indicated that there were two storms that led to the coastal impact (May and June). However, the reanalysis data sets indicate that between January and June of 1974, there were at least 10 events but not all of these events led to coastal erorion. These prior events would have played some role in setting the pre-conditions of the beach that ultimately led to the erosion towards the end of this six month period. The question therefore is to determine the beach response to clustered event sets and the nature of how those events ultimately lead to erosion.

The problem is complex as the response to the forcing will vary {\textendash} there will be a spectrum from inundation to erosion, and further, there will be varying factors that drive the erosion (e.g. long-shore, cross-shore) that are functions of the location and the event.

Why it is important?

Australia{\textquoteright}s population is concentrated along the coastline, with over 85\% within 50 km of the coastline (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001). In New South Wales for example, the NSW Government has identified 15 erosional hotspots (Kinsela and Hanslow 2013), along its 2000 km of coastline. Of the approximately 1000 km of erodible sandy beaches (open coast only), 28\% is within 220 m of property.

How are you going to solve it?

The study will quantify the risk of these clustered events by determining the nature of the hazard, the elements that are exposed to this hazard and their resultant vulnerability. Combining the frequency of the hazard with its impact will enable the risk to be quantified. This risk can then be managed through the coastal and disaster management processes of all stakeholders.

The study will focus on two case studies determined in consultation with the project end-users. Defining the hazard is non-trivial as it may be difficult to identify clustered events in the historical record. Determining the impact from a clustered event set will need to take into account the beach recovery time for the two sites. The coastal compartment framework provides the functional unit for understanding the shoreline response at a range of spatial scales, and detailed geomorphological site investigations will be undertaken and analysed within this framework for input to the beach response modelling.

The risk and coastal compartments framework are powerful in terms of situating the assessment at local, regional and national scales.

}, issn = {122}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @article {bnh-1951, title = {A review of informal volunteerism in emergencies and disasters: Definition, opportunities and challenges}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {13}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, pages = {358-368}, chapter = {358}, abstract = {

Despite highly specialised and capable emergency management systems, ordinary citizens are usually first on the scene in an emergency or disaster, and remain long after official services have ceased. Citizens often play vital roles in helping those affected to respond and recover, and can provide invaluable assistance to official agencies. However, in most developed countries, emergency and disaster management relies largely on a workforce of professionals and, to varying degrees, volunteers affiliated with official agencies. Those who work outside of such systems have tended to be viewed as a nuisance or liability, and their efforts are often undervalued. Given increasing disaster risk worldwide due to population growth, urban development and climate change, it is likely that {\textquoteleft}informal{\textquoteright} volunteers will provide much of the additional surge capacity required to respond to more frequent emergencies and disasters in the future. This paper considers the role of informal volunteers in emergency and disaster management. Definitions of volunteerism are reviewed and it is argued that there is an overemphasis on volunteering within, and for, state and formal organisations. We offer a broader definition of {\textquoteleft}informal volunteerism{\textquoteright} that recognises the many ways ordinary citizens volunteer their time, knowledge, skills and resources to help others in times of crisis. Two broad types of informal volunteerism are identified {\textendash} emergent and extending{\textendash} and the implications for emergency and disaster management are considered. Particular attention is given to increasing {\textquoteleft}digital volunteerism{\textquoteright} due to the greater accessibility of sophisticated but simple information and communication technologies. Culture and legal liability are identified as key barriers to greater participation of informal volunteers. We argue that more adaptive and inclusive models of emergency and disaster management are needed to harness the capacities and resilience that exist within and across communities.

}, keywords = {Emergency; Disaster; Citizen action; Emergence; Informal volunteerism; Resilience}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.07.010}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420915300388}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-1542, title = {Review of Tropical-Extratropical Cyclone Transitions Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Highly damaging storms along coastlines can occur when tropical cyclones (TCs) collide with\ winter weather systems. This annual report for the year 2013/14 outlines key findings observed thus far in the Developing Better Predictions for Extreme Water Levels project.

}, author = {Yasha Hetzel and Charitha Pattiaratchi} } @article {bnh-1807, title = {A Review of Volunteered Geographic Information for Disaster Management}, journal = {Geography Compass}, volume = {9}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, abstract = {

The immediacy of locational information requirements and importance of data currency for natural disaster events highlights the value of volunteered geographic information (VGI) in all stages of disaster management, including prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. The practice of private citizens generating online geospatial data presents new opportunities for the creation and dissemination of disaster-related geographic data from a dense network of intelligent observers. VGI technologies enable rapid sharing of diverse geographic information for disaster management at a fraction of the resource costs associated with traditional data collection and dissemination, but they also present new challenges. These include a lack of data quality assurance and issues surrounding data management, liability, security, and the digital divide. There is a growing need for researchers to explore and understand the implications of these data and data practices for disaster management. In this article, we review the current state of knowledge in this emerging field and present recommendations for future research. Significantly, we note further research is warranted in the pre-event phases of disaster management, where VGI may present an opportunity to connect and engage individuals in disaster preparation and strengthen community resilience to potential disaster events. Our investigation of VGI for disaster management provides broader insight into key challenges and impacts of VGI on geospatial data practices and the wider field of geographical science.

}, doi = {DOI: 10.1111/gec3.12213}, author = {Haworth, B and Eleanor Bruce} } @conference {bnh-7446, title = {Reviving people{\textquoteright}s trust in Bamboo technology: A case-study of Orlaha settlement reconstruction in Bihar, after the 2008 Kosi floods}, booktitle = {World Bamboo Congress}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, address = {Damyang, Korea}, abstract = {

There is a growing body of literature suggesting significance of technical and social guidance during post-disaster housing reconstruction projects. Social process during reconstruction includes considerations of community participation or owner-driven approaches. Technical process includes considerations for achieving a balance between the world-views of beneficiaries and facilitators in terms of multi-hazard safe house form, material, technology, and its cultural, environmental and financial appropriateness. Research suggests that it is the approaches/ process to reconstruction implementation, on which, relies the long-term effectiveness of housing reconstruction projects at imparting disaster-resilience to at-risk communities (Barenstein \& Iyengar 2010; Jha et al. January 2010; Lizarralde et al. 2010; Lyons, Schilderman \& Boano 2010; Schilderman \& Lyons 2011). However, empirical evidence suggests that despite the benefits of and socio-technical support by civil society agencies for re-adoption of traditional materials and technologies for multi-hazard safe housing reconstruction, it often proves challenging. This paper focuses on the technological and social process of reconstruction in the settlement of Orlaha in Triveniganj block in Supaul district of the Indian state of Bihar, post 2008 Kosi floods. The paper presents preliminary observations from two field-works that were conducted during November-December months in 2012 (Stage-1) and 2014 (Stage-2). The paper examines whether the process of housing reconstruction enabled reviving household{\textquoteright}s faith in bamboo {\textendash} a local traditional material for achieving multi-hazard resistance as well as met their aspirations? The research asks questions such as; what is the condition of housing, 5 years since completion of reconstruction? How satisfied are households with their housing? What are the reasons for successful uptake or failure? The paper examines whether and how a convergence can be achieved between technology and social perception. To this end, the paper{\textquoteright}s findings indicate that post-disaster context offers a small window of opportunity during which local households are open for changing their perceptions for achieving multi-hazard resistant housing, provided the technical assistance is accompanied with social assistance.

}, keywords = {community, Flood, Reconstruction, recover, resilience}, url = {http://toc.proceedings.com/28028webtoc.pdf}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Munir Vahanvati} } @conference {bnh-2093, title = {Risk and protection factors for bushfire resilience and recovery - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Elizabeth Waters and H. C. Gallagher and Karen Block and Elyse Snowdon and Louise Harms and Richard Bryant and Dean Lusher and David Forbes and Greg Ireton and John Richardson and Colin MacDougall and Vikki Sinnott and Connie Kellett and Philippa Pattison} } @conference {bnh-2076, title = {Risk ownership and natural hazards: across systems and across values - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Roger Jones and Celeste Young and Symons, J} } @article {bnh-2567, title = {Risk perception, preparedness and response of livestock producers to bushfires: a South Australian case study}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {30}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, abstract = {

Animal ownership has been shown to be a risk factor for the survival of humans during emergencies and natural disasters largely due to evacuation failures. For livestock producers, it is often impossible to evacuate their animals given the need to ensure the safety of all persons, property (e.g. dwellings, equipment, paddocks), pets, and the welfare of their stock. To determine their use of information and warnings, and their planning and preparedness behaviour, 41 livestock producers from three field sites around rural South Australia that were threatened or impacted by significant bushfires in January 2014 were interviewed. The majority had a low level of concern for bushfire threat, with almost all opting to {\textquoteleft}stay and defend{\textquoteright} their property. Few had formally written {\textquoteleft}bushfire risk management plans{\textquoteright}, adequate insurance for livestock, a contingency plan, or used information resources. However, they reported multiple other routine and ordinary practices contributing to their bushfire preparedness. Such activities used a more {\textquoteleft}common sense{\textquoteright} approach, conducted as part of everyday property management practices and farming culture. It is clear that livestock producers have different needs before and during bushfires, and have a different perception of risk than other animal owners or rural dwellers in general.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-30-02-08}, author = {Bradley P Smith and Mel Taylor and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-2398, title = {Risks and opportunities for sustainable savanna fire management}, year = {2015}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-3408, title = {Role Clarity, Swift Trust and Multi-Agency Coordination}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, volume = {23}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {29-35}, chapter = {29}, abstract = {

The purpose of this paper was to further the understanding of swift trust in temporary organizations by examining the role swift trust plays in emergency management coordination and how role clarity acts as an enabler within temporary organizational configurations. A qualitative interview study was conducted with 32 liaison officers working in three strategic-level emergency operations centres in Australia. Role clarity was identified as an important factor in the successful formation of emergency management temporary organizations by emergency services and critical infrastructure liaison officers working in multi-agency arrangements. By providing role clarity, liaison officers may enable collaborative working practices among organizations involved in emergency management and thus facilitate multi-agency coordination. The function of role clarity in the context of swift trust is largely overlooked in emergency management. Therefore, this study has contributed to the knowledge of swift trust by empirically verifying the impact of role clarity by liaison officers working in the research setting.

}, doi = {10.1111/1468-5973.12072}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-5973.12072/abstract}, author = {Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Paton, Douglas and Cain Trist and David Parsons} } @conference {bnh-2072, title = {The role of extreme value analysis to enhance defendable space for construction practice and planning in bushfire prone environments - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Grahame Douglas and Yaping He and Yang Xiang and Edward Morris} } @article {bnh-1809, title = {The role of social science in the governance and management of wildland fire}, journal = {international Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {151-152}, chapter = {151}, abstract = {

Global social-economic and environmental changes are increasing the challenges of wildfire risk management. Addressing these challenges requires perspectives beyond knowledge of the bio-physical dynamics of fire. This Special Section provides some such perspectives, including safety, children{\textquoteright}s understanding of the risk, indigenous knowledge of fire, and {\textquoteleft}shared responsibility{\textquoteright}. Each paper highlights important challenges and ideas for fire management.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF15030}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF15030.htm}, author = {Karyn Bosomworth and John Handmer and RP Thornton} } @article {bnh-2446, title = {Savanna fire management and scenario planning for North Australia: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {153}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Savanna fire management and BNH scenario planning for northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of a larger suite of BNH CRC {\textquoteleft}northern hub{\textquoteright} projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote Indigenous communities, and identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that can contribute to enhancing community development and resilience.

We report here on the past year{\textquoteright}s activities undertaken through two of the three sub-projects. The third sub-project {\textquoteleft}management of high biomass weeds{\textquoteright} will commence activities in July 2015. The {\textquoteleft}Gulf fire management{\textquoteright}, project, now more appropriately replacing the {\textquoteleft}spinifex and mulga landscapes{\textquoteright} project, commenced in January 2015, building on the substantial effort made by Indigenous ranger groups, it will assist to develop culturally appropriate landscape fire management programs that will also offer economic opportunities through existing and future market-based savanna burning greenhouse emissions abatement, carbon sequestration and other Payment for Ecosystem Services markets. Although in its infancy, to date this project has:

1. Appointed a CRC funded PhD student, Kate van Wezel, to assist develop the capacity and engagement of women rangers in a project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Towards culturally appropriate fire management in the Waanyi and Garawa lands: impediments, opportunities, and key challenges.

2. Undertaken a week long field trip to this very remote region and visited the Indigenous communities of Borroloola and Robinson River, to familiarize staff with the region and to discuss the proposed research program with key local community members.

The {\textquoteleft}savanna burning{\textquoteright} project commenced late in 2013. It builds upon satellite derived modeling of fire severity mapping, these data, combined with fire history mapping have been applied to assess the risk of fire to biodiversity, emissions and ecosystem services in general. In the past year this sub-project has:

1. developed and refined the fire severity mapping algorithm;

2. developed finer scale analyses of the fire mapping and ancillary spatial data for two remote indigenous regions around Kunbalanja and Ngukurr;

3. undertaken informal workshops with indigenous ranger groups to ascertain the use and utility of the mapping products, and;

4. co-edited a substantial book outlining the north Australian 600 to 1,000 mm mean seasonal rainfall region methodology for calculating greenhouse gas emissions abatement and the potential for carbon sequestration from trees and coarse woody debris.

To date the projects and their sub-components are being managed correctly, with all milestones completed.

}, issn = {153}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-2098, title = {Science in motion: knowledge practices and prescribed burning in southwest Victoria - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-2346, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {138}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Efforts to anticipate and mitigate natural hazards have generated a diverse field of natural science that is drawn upon by a wide range of practitioners and decision makers as part of making strategic decisions to anticipate and mitigate natural hazard events. This project asks, Given that uncertainty is an inherent part of scientific practice and method, how do those engaged in risk mitigation manage these scientific uncertainties in their decision-making?

By moving beyond simplistic assumptions that science can be directly translated into policy and practice, we instead analyse how risk professionals and others express and manage differing opinions about the diverse forms of knowledge and uncertainties inherent to mitigation practice {\textendash} including in terms of their relative influence and changeability {\textendash} and to investigate how science comes to inform risk mitigation policy and practice. This work supports the capacity of risk management practitioners to explain, justify and discuss mitigation practices to other risk mitigation professionals, the public, the media, and in court and inquiry processes.

The second year of the Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty And Risk Mitigation Policy And Planning (RMPP) project has been occupied with project development, literature reviews, fieldwork, publication development and end user engagement. Some key activities in this second year include:

The RMPP project has developed quickly, thanks to robust engagement with industry and support from end users and the project team. The project is well placed to continue to build on this successful year of research and engagement by developing the second and third case studies and disseminating emerging research results.

}, issn = {138}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-1716, title = {Scientific Knowledge and Scientific Uncertainty in Bushfire and Flood Risk Mitigation: Literature Review}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, abstract = {

The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and\ Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of\ bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and\ planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts,\ inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge\ in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and\ case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as\ salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for\ emergency management across the PPRR spectrum.

This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was\ written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises\ approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including\ research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering,\ development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The\ report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and\ science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the\ public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning.

This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and\ scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific\ uncertainties are those {\textquoteleft}known unknowns{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}unknown unknowns{\textquoteright} that emerge\ from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation\ involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability\ of assets and values to a given hazard.

}, isbn = {978-1-74108-354-5}, author = {Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-1556, title = {Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This Annual Report reports on activities to June 30 2014 of the Scientific Diversity,\ Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning project.

}, author = {Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-2450, title = {Scoping remote north Australian community resilience and developing governance models through action research: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {156}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}scoping remote northern Australia resilience{\textquoteright} project is part of a larger suite of BNH CRC {\textquoteleft}northern hub{\textquoteright} projects being undertaken through Charles Darwin University. Collectively, these projects aim to promote enhanced understanding of the special circumstances concerning resilience issues in remote Indigenous communities, and identify culturally appropriate governance arrangements and enterprise opportunities that can contribute to enhancing community development and resilience.

We report here on the past year{\textquoteright}s activities undertaken through three complementary sub-projects{\textemdash}

(1)\ \ \  in-depth consultations undertaken by the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet{\textemdash}a collective of Indigenous community researchers) addressing bushfire and natural hazard threats and issues at two large (\>1000 persons) remote Arnhem Land communities, Gunbalanya and Ngukurr

(2)\ \ \  major desk-top assessments undertaken by the North Australian Land \& Sea Management Alliance (NAILSMA) addressing (a) mapping of {\textquoteleft}hard{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}soft{\textquoteright} infrastructure assets at Gunbalanya and Ngukurr, (b) a literature review of our current understanding of remote community resilience in northern Australia

(3)\ \ \  preliminary assessments of the value of ecosystem services (ES), and derived payment for environmental services (PES) opportunities, at Gunbalanya and Ngukurr, and more broadly on the Indiegnous estate in northern Australia.

While the project is still in its early stages, results presented in this report highlight:

}, issn = {156}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-1548, title = {Scoping Remote North Australian Community Resilience Annual Report 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

This is an annual report for the year 2013/14 for the Scoping Remote North Australian Community Resilience project. This project will address the complexities inherent in the North Australian community resilience problem by identifying and building on the existing scaffold of knowledge and understanding of bushfire and natural hazards. It will develop a fine-grained understanding of how local knowledge and other capacity underpin existing risk management and post-event responses, and what changes would be most effective and valued.

}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-2533, title = {Secondary Traumatic Stress in Postdisaster Field Research Interviewers}, journal = {Journal of Traumatic Stress}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2016}, abstract = {

Numerous studies show that those involved in disaster response may develop posttraumatic stress disorder or experience secondary traumatic stress (STS). There are few reports about the experiences of postdisaster field research interviewers. We report findings from a follow-up study of researchers who conducted postwildfire field research interviews with residents affected by 5 severe wildfire events in Australia over the period 2009{\textendash}2014. There were 33 postwildfire research interviewers who reported their experiences, and 18 of them (54.5\%) described distressing interviews involving deaths, surviving severe threats to life, and destruction of houses. There were 27 (81.6\%) who reported having experienced 1 or more STS symptoms on a 20-item measure. Those who conducted interviews following a multifatality wildfire event reported higher levels of STS symptoms compared with researchers whose interviews followed nonfatal wildfires. There were 21 (63.6\%) researchers who reported that their interviewing experiences had positive effects on their lives. This indicates that the researcher role of gathering information so that future wildfire risk could be mitigated may have served a protective function.

}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jts.22072/abstract;jsessionid=03E06FC8DFD29B9B128449799C0A6E51.f01t01?userIsAuthenticated=false\&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=}, author = {Jim McLennan and Lynette Evans and Sean Cowlishaw and Lindsay Pamment and Wright, Lyndsey} } @conference {bnh-2779, title = {Seismic assessment of non-ductile reinforced concrete C-shaped walls in Australia}, booktitle = {The Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia.}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Elisa Lumantarna}, editor = {Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @conference {bnh-2080, title = {Shared responsibility - shades of grey - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Sarah Redshaw and Valerie Ingham and Kathleen Harrison and Toni Quigley and Kris Newton} } @article {bnh-2676, title = {Sheltering practices during bushfire}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, institution = {CSIRO}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aimed to examine circumstances and challenges experienced by residents when sheltering\ during bushfires in order to establish an evidence base to support policy reform and community education\ initiatives. To address this, this report presents: 1) a review of sheltering practices in Australia and 2) the\ results of a qualitative and quantitative investigation of people{\textquoteright}s experiences while sheltering during the\ {\textquoteright}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires on 7 February 2009.

}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Justin Leonard and Kimberley Opie and Mark Holland and Stephanie Dreyfuss} } @article {bnh-3412, title = {Short-term forecasting of water yield from forested catchments after bushfire: a case study from south-east Australia}, journal = {Water}, volume = {7}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, pages = {599-614}, chapter = {599}, abstract = {

Forested catchments in southeast Australia play an important role in supplying water to major cities. Over the past decades, vegetation cover in this area has been affected by major bushfires that in return influence water yield. This study tests methods for forecasting water yield after bushfire, in a forested catchment in southeast Australia. Precipitation and remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were selected as the main predictor variables. Cross-correlation results show that water yield with time lag equal to 1 can be used as an additional predictor variable. Input variables and water yield observations were set based on 16-day time series, from 20 January 2003 to 20 January 2012. Four data-driven models namely Non-Linear Multivariate Regression (NLMR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), non-linear Autoregressive with External Input based Artificial Neural Networks (NARX-ANN), and Symbolic Regression (SR) were employed for this study. Results showed that NARX-ANN outperforms other models across all goodness-of-fit criteria. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.90 and correlation coefficient of 0.96 at the training-validation stage, as well as NSE of 0.89 and correlation coefficient of 0.95 at the testing stage, are indicative of potentials of this model for capturing ecological dynamics in predicting catchment hydrology, at an operational level.

}, doi = {10.3390/w7020599}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/2/599}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Mohammad Amzi and Adams, Mark A.} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4630, title = {Simulated Self-Paced Wildfire Suppression Work in Different Thermal Conditions}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, pages = {236}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is a substantial body of research investigating the influence of ambient temperature on sport and exercise performance. However, research investigating the effect of heat on the performance of manual-handling work, as performed by personnel across many physically demanding occupations, is relatively scarce. Wildland firefighters are commonly tasked with performing manual-handling work under conditions of high ambient heat, and will likely do so more frequently under a continually warming climate. Heat-related illness also currently represents a substantial threat to the safety and wellbeing of wildland firefighters when on duty. Understanding the role of ambient heat in moderating firefighter performance may be important for wildland fire agencies in forecasting the effectiveness of their workforce. Further, quantifying the physiological response of firefighters working in such conditions may assist in preventing heat-related incidents on the fireground. Therefore, assessing the influence of hot ambient conditions on the work output of wildland firefighters, as well as the magnitude of their thermoregulatory and cardiovascular response, was the primary focus of this thesis. Due to the inherent variability of wildfire behaviour, and the subsequent difficulty in measuring work performance in an operational setting, the current program of research utilised high-fidelity work simulations to assess changes in work output in response to ambient heat. Study 1 investigated the self-selected work output of wildland firefighters in both temperate (18{\textdegree}C) and hot (32{\textdegree}C) ambient conditions over a six-hour simulated shift, and indices of thermal stress (e.g., core temperature) and exertion (e.g., heart rate) were measured. Study 2 reported the cumulative effect of ambient heat on the work performance and physiological response of wildland firefighters performing three consecutive days of simulated wildfire suppression. Finally, Study 3 measured the self-selected work output and thermoregulatory responses of wildland firefighters performing a raking task in both 45{\textdegree}C and 18{\textdegree}C conditions. The adaptive behaviours of firefighters (e.g., in ad-libitum fluid intake) were also documented during all studies. Collectively, the results from these studies provides novel insight into the operational effectiveness of wildland firefighters under a range of ambient conditions, and their concurrent physiological and behavioural responses.\ 

}, keywords = {Decision making, emergency management., exposure, firefighter, fires, temperature}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30082763/larsen-simulatedself-2015A.pdf}, author = {Larsen, Brianna} } @article {bnh-1963, title = {Simulating boundary-layer rolls with a numerical weather prediction model}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, year = {2015}, pages = {1-14}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Boundary-layer rolls have an impact on bushfires, pollution dispersion, the triggering of extreme convective weather events, the air{\textendash}sea interaction and intensification of tropical cyclones and momentum, particle and gas fluxes. Previous numerical modelling studies that investigate the effects of boundarylayer rolls and the processes that control their dynamics have relied upon high-resolution, idealised simulations. Recently, however, numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have increased in horizontal resolution to the point at which they are capable of explicitly resolving shallow convective circulations. Therefore, there is a need to assess the ability of NWP to accurately forecast the formation, development and breakup of boundary-layer rolls. Here, we assess the ability of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM), the NWP component of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), to simulate the life cycle of boundary-layer rolls. A suite of simulations is performed, over a range of horizontal resolutions, of boundary-layer rolls observed across Victoria, Australia, on Black Saturday, 7th February 2009. In this case, it is found that a horizontal grid spacing of less than 0.6 km is required to adequately reproduce the scale and evolution of the observed rolls. We note that the boundary layer was particularly deep on this day and as a consequence the boundary-layer rolls were wider than may be typically observed, meaning the grid spacing specified here lies at the upper end of what would be required with a shallower boundary layer. The model output is used to assess how the boundary-layer rolls contribute to the high fire danger on Black Saturday. It is suggested that boundary-layer rolls may increase fire danger by (i) causing wind-direction variability at the surface, which increases the rate of spread of fires; and (ii) enhancing the process of long-range spotting by augmenting the vertical lofting of embers.

}, keywords = {Shallow convection; mesoscale modelling; high resolution NWP; terra incognita; Black Saturday bushfires; atmospheric boundary layer; wind direction variability}, url = {http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/jdk/Kepert_papers/Thurston_etal_2015_qjrms_acc.pdf}, author = {W. Thurston and Robert Fawcett and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-2503, title = {The sleep architecture of Australian volunteer firefighters during a multi-day simulated wildfire suppression: Impact of sleep restriction and temperature}, journal = {Accident Analysis \& Prevention}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, abstract = {

Author(s): Michael A. Cvirn, Jillian Dorrian, Bradley P. Smith, Sarah M. Jay, Grace E. Vincent, Sally A. Ferguson

Wildland firefighting exposes personnel to combinations of occupational and environmental stressors that include physical activity, heat and sleep restriction. However, the effects of these stressors on sleep have rarely been studied in the laboratory, and direct comparisons to field scenarios remain problematic. The aim of this study was to examine firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep during a three-day, four-night simulated wildfire suppression that included sleep restriction and physical activity circuits representative of firefighting wildfire suppression tasks in varied temperatures. Sixty-one volunteer firefighters (37.5{\textpm}14.5 years of age, mean{\textpm}SD) were assigned to one of three conditions: control (n =25; 8h sleep opportunities and 18{\textendash}20{\textdegree}C), awake (n =25; 4h sleep opportunities and 18{\textendash}20{\textdegree}C) or awake/hot (n =11; 4h sleep opportunities and 33{\textendash}35{\textdegree}C during the day and 23{\textendash}25{\textdegree}C during the night). Results demonstrated that amounts of N1, N2 and R sleep, TST, SOL and WASO declined, whilst sleep efficiency increased significantly in the awake and awake/hot conditions compared to the control condition. Results also demonstrated that SWS sleep remained relatively stable in the awake and awake/hot conditions compared to control values. Most importantly, no significant differences were found for any of the sleep measures between the awake and awake/hot conditions. Thus, working in hot daytime temperatures in combination with sleep restriction during the night did not affect patterns of sleep compared to working in temperate conditions in combination with sleep restriction during the night. However, the effects on sleep of high (\&gt;25{\textdegree}C) night-time temperatures with sleep restriction in addition to physical activity remains to be studied.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457515301287}, author = {Michael A Cvirn and Jillian Dorrian and Bradley P Smith and Sarah M Jay and Sally Ferguson}, editor = {Grace Vincent} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4631, title = {Sleep restriction across a simulated firefighting deployment: The impact on acute stress responses}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, pages = {317}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure to stressors set in motion inflammatory, cortisol, heart rate and mood responses that allow the body to maintain normal healthy function. Severe or chronic stressors however, may adversely alter the action of these stress responses and lead to adverse health outcomes. Periods of sleep restriction and performing physical work are two stressors routinely faced by wildland firefighters, yet the combined impact that these demands have on firefighters{\textquoteright} acute stress responses is poorly understood. Therefore, the objective of this thesis was to investigate the effect of physical firefighting work and sleep restriction on firefighters{\textquoteright} cytokine, cortisol and heart rate responses, their interactions, and how mood may influence any observed physiological changes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighters, physiological., Sleep, sleep deprivation}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30083644/wolkow-sleeprestriction-2015A.pdf}, author = {Alexander Wolkow} } @article {bnh-1736, title = {Sleep Restriction during Simulated Wildfire Suppression: Effect on Physical Task Performance}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {10}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

Objectives

To examine the effects of sleep restriction on firefighters{\textquoteright} physical task performance during simulated wildfire suppression.

Methods

Thirty-five firefighters were matched and randomly allocated to either a control condition (8-hour sleep opportunity, n = 18) or a sleep restricted condition (4-hour sleep opportunity, n = 17). Performance on physical work tasks was evaluated across three days. In addition, heart rate, core temperature, and worker activity were measured continuously. Rate of perceived and exertion and effort sensation were evaluated during the physical work periods.

Results

There were no differences between the sleep-restricted and control groups in firefighters{\textquoteright} task performance, heart rate, core temperature, or perceptual responses during self-paced simulated firefighting work tasks. However, the sleep-restricted group were less active during periods of non-physical work compared to the control group.

Conclusions

Under self-paced work conditions, 4 h of sleep restriction did not adversely affect firefighters{\textquoteright} performance on physical work tasks. However, the sleep-restricted group were less physically active throughout the simulation. This may indicate that sleep-restricted participants adapted their behaviour to conserve effort during rest periods, to subsequently ensure they were able to maintain performance during the firefighter work tasks. This work contributes new knowledge to inform fire agencies of firefighters{\textquoteright} operational capabilities when their sleep is restricted during multi-day wildfire events. The work also highlights the need for further research to explore how sleep restriction affects physical performance during tasks of varying duration, intensity, and complexity.

}, keywords = {Firefighter fatigue, simulated wildfire suppression, sleep deprivation}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0115329}, url = {http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115329}, author = {Grace Vincent and Sally Ferguson and Jacqueline Tran and Larsen, Brianna and Alexander Wolkow and Brad Aisbett} } @conference {bnh-1621, title = {Social Media, Crisis Communication and Community-led Response and Recovery: An Australian Case Study Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

This paper discusses research being undertaken to explore and document an Australian case study of a Facebook page, {\textquotedblleft}Tassie Fires {\textendash} We Can Help{\textquotedblright} (TFWCH), which was created by a community member during a bushfire emergency in 2013. This project represents one of the first and most extensive insights into how a community-led social media page functions in a crisis situation. The page was used as a platform to inform the public and share information, provide a medium for users to ask for help or offer help, and to manage volunteers. This paper discusses the background to the case study.

}, author = {M Irons and Paton, Douglas and L Lester and J Scott and A Martin} } @article {bnh-6928, title = {Sources of soil dryness measures and forecasts for fire danger rating }, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bureau of Meteorology }, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

The fuel availability estimates in McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index used in Australia for issuing operational fire warnings is based on soil moisture deficit, calculated as either the Keetch{\textendash}Byram Drought Index (KBDI) or Mount{\textquoteright}s Soil Dryness Index (MSDI). These indices are essentially simplified, empirical water balance models designed to estimate soil moisture depletion in the upper soil levels. These two models over-simplify processes like evapotranspiration and runoff which can lead to large uncertainties in the predicted soil moisture deficit. With advancements in the science of soil moisture measurement and modelling, better products are available for use in fire danger ratings. As such, a detailed review of the established and emerging soil moisture estimation techniques becomes necessary. With this in view, efforts have been made in this paper to discuss various soil moisture estimation methods, their advantages and limitations in a fire danger rating context. The discussion is not intended to be complete and reflect the authors{\textquoteright} interests, but we hope that it helps to highlight the soil moisture data sources that may not be well known outside the hydrological community, especially the people in fire management.

}, keywords = {fire management, Forecasting, forest fire danger index, fuel, soil dryness}, isbn = {978-0-642-70672-0}, issn = {Bureau Research Report - BRR009}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-009.pdf}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6626, title = {Spanning boundaries to support effective multi-agency coordination in emergency management}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, school = {University of Tasmania}, abstract = {

Modern disasters are frequently beyond the management capability of any one organization and repeatedly necessitate an approach requiring multiple organizations such as those witnessed following the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the Haiti earthquake in 2010. An increased susceptibility of societies impacted by natural and man-made hazards consequently requires a coordinated response from public and private organizations in an effort to mitigate the risk to the affected communities. Failure to enact an adequate response to manage the consequences of disastrous events has the potential to create widespread death and injury to an already vulnerable global population.


This doctoral thesis by publication draws attention to the specialist workers involved in emergency management arrangements, commonly called liaison officers, from organizations involved in multi-agency coordination efforts. Liaison officers are required to span organizational boundaries to provide linkages between organizations engaged in emergency management events. Consequently, they are deemed fundamental to the success of any multi-agency coordination approach. However, the work of liaison officers is problematic as they are invariably confronted by a myriad of social, organizational and technological complexities. The unique nature of multi-agency coordination in emergency management is generally highlighted by coordination failure and continues to be inadequately addressed in practice and in research.


The principal aim of the research was to explore the work of liaison officers involved in multi-agency arrangements and suggest a framework for improving multi-agency coordination in emergency management. The research was thus embedded in human factors drawing on theories that also provided a contextual understanding of dynamic socio-cultural environments. In so doing the research explicitly drew upon the methodology of core-task analysis which is a conceptual modelling approach for the analysis of empirical qualitative data that is typically suited to high reliability environments.


The qualitative data used in this research was collected from a series of individual interviews, observational studies and focus group interviews conducted with liaison officers from public and private organizations across three Australian states. The findings are presented in five scientific research papers. Three of the papers have been published in internationally recognized peer-reviewed journals. The final two papers have been submitted for publication and are currently under review.


The contributions of this research have enhanced knowledge development and provided insights that can be utilised in evidence-based practice in emergency management. The theoretical contribution provided an insight into the work of liaison officers in the context of emergency management arrangements. The methodological contribution permitted the application of core-task analysis to the domain of emergency management where it had not previously been applied. Finally, facets of this research have recently been implemented by industry into operational doctrine and organizational learning processes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, liaison officer, multi agency coordination}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/22781/}, author = {Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-2393, title = {The spread of fires in landscapes}, year = {2015}, author = {Daniel Chung and Khalid Moinuddin and Andrew Ooi and Duncan Sutherland and Graham Thorpe and Rahul Wadhwani} } @article {bnh-3414, title = {Stomatal structure and physiology do not explain differences in water use among montane eucalypts}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {177}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, pages = {1171-1181}, chapter = {1171}, abstract = {

Understanding the regulation of water use at the whole-tree scale is critical to advancing the utility of physiological ecology, for example in its role in predictive hydrology of forested catchments. For three eucalypt species that dominate high-elevation catchments in south-eastern Australia, we examined if whole-tree water use could be related to three widely discussed regulators of water use: stomatal anatomy, sensitivity of stomata [i.e. stomatal conductance (gs)] to environmental influences, and sapwood area. While daily tree water use varied sixfold among species, sap velocity and sapwood area varied in parallel. Combined, stomatal structure and physiology could not explain differences in species-specific water use. Species which exhibited the fastest (Eucalyptus delegatensis) and slowest (Eucalyptus pauciflora) rates of water use both exhibited greater capacity for physiological control of\ gs[indicated by sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit (VPD)] and a reduced capacity to limit\ gsanatomically [indicated by greater potential\ gs\ (gmax)]. Conversely,\ gs\ was insensitive to VPD and\ gmax\ was lowest for\ Eucalyptus radiata, the species showing intermediate rates of water use. Improved knowledge of stomatal anatomy will help us to understand the capacity of species to regulate leaf-level water loss, but seems likely to remain of limited use for explaining rates of whole-tree water use in montane eucalypts at the catchment scale.

}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-015-3252-3}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-015-3252-3}, author = {Gharun, Mana and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Sebastian Pfautsch and Adams, Mark A.} } @conference {bnh-2389, title = {Storm surge risk from transitioning tropical cyclones in Australia}, booktitle = {Australasian Coasts \& Ports Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, month = {11/2015}, publisher = {ResearchGate}, organization = {ResearchGate}, address = {Auckland, NZ}, abstract = {

When tropical cyclones come ashore strong winds can set up storm surges that devastate coastal communities through erosion and inundation of low lying areas. In Australia, storm surge risk from tropical cyclones is generally restricted to warmer northern regions whilst in the southern regions damaging storm surges tend to arise from extratropical low pressure systems. Often, tropical cyclones weaken as they move into higher latitudes passing over cooler waters and experiencing higher wind shear. However, in some cases tropical cyclones can interact with mid-latitude weather systems causing the storms to lose tropical characteristics and become extratropical in nature, often intensifying and accelerating{\textendash} this is known as Extratropical Transition (ET). Storms that undergo ET pose a serious threat to life and property by extending tropical cyclone-like conditions over a larger area in latitudes that do not normally experience such events. Here we aim to describe the storm surge risk from tropical cyclones transitioning into the higher latitudes around Australia using observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and a coupled storm surge-wave model. We highlight modelling challenges and examine two contrasting case studies: (1) the worst case scenario of Cyclone Alby (1978) that underwent ET causing large waves, flooding, erosion and $50 million in damage in southwest Australia; and, (2) a {\textquoteleft}near miss{\textquoteright} event from Cyclone Bianca (2011) that weakened just before making landfall in the same region. The simulated surge from Alby peaked at 1.1 m in Busselton, with approximately 10\% of the height resulting from wave effects included in the model. Predicted wave heights exceeded 10 m offshore. Cyclone Bianca weakened dramatically before landfall and major damage did not occur. We propose that tropical cyclones moving into higher latitudes need to be given special consideration due to their unpredictable nature and the potential for damaging storm surges.

}, author = {Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic and Charitha Pattiaratchi and E.M.S Wijeratne} } @article {bnh-2216, title = {Stress and Growth Experiences Reported by Post-Bushfire Field Research Interviewers}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, abstract = {

Background: There are numerous reports that those involved in disaster response and recovery are at-risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder, acute stress reaction, or secondary traumatic stress. There are few reports of research concerning the experiences of post-disaster field research interviewers. During the period 2009{\textemdash}2014, post-bushfire research interviews were conducted with residents affected by seven major bushfire events in four Australian states. This report describes findings from follow-up surveys of those who conducted five of these post-bushfire research interview studies. The aim was to investigate (a)\ the nature of their experiences; and (b)\ their perceptions of the adequacy of the training and preparation for the work.

Method: Sixty-five post-bushfire research interviewers were contacted and invited to take part in an interview or complete a survey questionnaire about their post-bushfire research experiences. Thirty-three researchers (51\%) provided 38 responses: one researcher described experiences on each of three deployments, three researchers described their experiences on each of two deployments.

Results: Of the 38 responses, 9 (24\%) described no stress symptoms associated with the interviews; 26 (68\%) described little to mild levels of stress symptoms; 3 (8\%) reported moderate levels of stress symptoms. Twenty three researchers (64\%) reported that their experiences overall were positive. Reports about training and preparation were mostly positive.

Conclusions: Interviewing residents affected by future disaster events will be psychologically impactful for many who conduct post-disaster field research. For the majority, the experience will probably have some distressing elements, but will be viewed positively overall. A small percentage will experience moderate levels of secondary stress, especially if the event involved multiple fatalities, but this will be relatively transient. The approach to training and preparation used for the post-bushfire field interviews is probably adequate, but needs to be evaluated more rigorously.

}, author = {Jim McLennan and Lynette Evans} } @conference {bnh-2085, title = {The Sydney 2014 forecast demonstration project - a step from research to operations - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Michael Foley and Mika Peace and Deryn Griffiths and James Sofra and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-1839, title = {A theoretical framework for negotiating the path of emergency management multi-agency coordination}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {47}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {300-307}, chapter = {300}, abstract = {

Multi-agency coordination represents a significant challenge in emergency management. The need for liaison officers working in strategic level emergency operations centres to play organizational boundary spanning roles within multi-agency coordination arrangements that are enacted in complex and dynamic emergency response scenarios creates significant research and practical challenges. The aim of the paper is to address a gap in the literature regarding the concept of multi-agency coordination from a human-environment interaction perspective. We present a theoretical framework for facilitating multi-agency coordination in emergency management that is grounded in human factors and ergonomics using the methodology of core-task analysis. As a result we believe the framework will enable liaison officers to cope more efficiently within the work domain. In addition, we provide suggestions for extending the theory of core-task analysis to an alternate high reliability environment.

}, keywords = {Boundary spanning; Emergency management; Multi-organizational core-task analysis}, doi = {doi: 10.1016/j.apergo.2014.10.014}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25480001}, author = {Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Paton, Douglas and Brooks, B} } @conference {bnh-1638, title = {Threshold Behaviour in Dynamic Fire Propagation Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Recent research has demonstrated that under conditions of extreme fire weather, bushfires burning in rugged terrain can exhibit distinctly dynamic patterns of propagation, which can have a dramatic effect on subsequent fire development. Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling using large eddy simulation has been useful in shedding light on the physical mechanisms underlying these phenomena, for example highlighting the important role of fire-induced vorticity. In particular it has confirmed that the onset of dynamic modes of fire propagation is subject to a number of environmental thresholds. This is not the first time that the existence of threshold behaviour in combustion-related systems has been identified. In this paper we provide a brief summary of some combustion-related systems that exhibit threshold behaviour. Specifically we discuss the emergence of dynamic modes of fire propagation in exceedingly simple representations of combustion systems, and the existence of environmental thresholds relating to the propagation of wildfires in rugged terrain. Most significantly, we present new research that specifically investigates the environmental precursors necessary to drive a particular type of dynamic fire propagation known as vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS). This research extends previous coupled fire-atmosphere modelling, to specifically consider the effect of wind speed and topographic slope ingenerating the fire-induced vorticity necessary to drive VLS.
The modelling results indicate the existence of environmental thresholds beyond which VLS is likely to occur. The results also indicate that the transition from quasi-steady to dynamic fire propagation can be quite abrupt, requiring only minimal changes in wind speed and slope for onset. The propensity for dynamic interactions to produce erratic and dangerous fire behaviour has strong implications for firefighter and community safety.

}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Colin Simpson and Jason P. Evans and Rick McRae} } @conference {bnh-2778, title = {Torsional Displacement for Asymmetric Low-Rise Buildings with RC C-shaped Cores.}, booktitle = {Tenth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Sydney, Australia.}, year = {2015}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-1842, title = {Trends in evapotranspiration and streamflow following wildfire in resprouting eucalypt forests}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {524}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {614-624}, chapter = {614}, abstract = {

The objective of this study was to estimate the recovery trajectory of evapotranspiration (Et) and streamflow (Q) in resprouting forested catchments following wildfire. Recovery dynamics were assessed in mixed species eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia which recover from disturbance largely via vegetative resprouting, and to a lesser degree, via seedling recruitment. Changes in\ Et\ were evaluated in two ways. Firstly, we developed semi-empirical models of post-fire\ Et\ following moderate and high severity wildfire. These models were based on datasets of plot-scale\ Et, measured within five years post-fire, and published literature on post-fire changes in vegetation structure. Secondly, we analysed long-term\ Qrecords (25\ years) from a mixed species catchment, including a 1{\textendash}5\ year period following a predominately moderate severity wildfire. We found that the overall length of recovery time for\ Et\ and\ Q\ following wildfire was 8{\textendash}12\ years, which is much less than for eucalypt forests recovering via seedlings only. This emphasises the importance of functional responses to fire in forest ecosystems as a key driver of the hydrologic resilience of catchments, with resprouting forest types conferring relatively rapid recovery following disturbance. We also found that the recovery trajectory of post-fire\ Et\ was dependent on fire severity. Increased\ Et\ and consequent declines in\ Q\ occurred following moderate severity fire. In contrast, there was no evidence of increased\ Et\ following high severity fire. Based on patterns of long-term\ Q\ and rainfall observed in a small mixed species catchment, declines in\ Q\ due to increased\ Et\ following moderate severity wildfire were of similar magnitude to\ Q\ declines driven by a drought that coincided with the fire. We conclude that the coincidence of wildfire with drought exacerbates reductions in\ Q\ under moderate severity fire, resulting in greater\ Q\ declines. This is due to the enhanced rates of\ Et, primarily driven by regenerating seedlings and higher rates of transpiration from surviving trees.

}, keywords = {Water balance; Streamflow elasticity; Resilience; Disturbance; Fire severity}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.045}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415001572}, author = {Rachael Nolan and Lane, Patrick N. J. and Richard G. Benyon and Ross Bradstock and Patrick J. Mitchell} } @conference {bnh-2086, title = {Understanding present and future bushfire hazard reduction burn windows in NSW - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Belinda Kenny} } @article {bnh-1881, title = {The {\textquoteright}University Human Research Ethics Committees{\textquoteright} Provisions for Expedited Reviews of Above-low Risk Research Such as Post-disaster Community Interview Studies}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, abstract = {

There is widespread agreement among researchers and emergency services personnel that changes in climate and human settlement patterns in Australia will result in more frequent natural disaster events in future. Emergency management agencies need to know how community members prepare for and respond to disasters. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) may expect to be asked to respond to requests from emergency services agencies for researchers to go into the field to interview survivors about their experiences quite soon after disaster events such as bushfires, cyclones, floods, and severe storms. Researchers are most likely to come from universities. Some circumstances may require very rapid review of above-low risk ethics applications from university researchers seeking to conduct post-disaster field studies, by university human research ethics committees (HRECs). In 2014 Australia{\textquoteright}s 39 university HRECs were contacted and asked to describe any provisions they had for such expedited reviews. Replies were received from 28 HRECs (72\%). Nine of these 28 described provisions for expedited review of above-low risk applications--four described formal procedures, and five described ad hoc procedures that could be followed if required. Nineteen HRECs (68\%) stated that they had no provisions currently for expedited review of above-low risk ethics applications; six of these discussed possible ways in which such a request might possibly be facilitated depending on circumstances. It was concluded that university researchers who may be asked by the BNHCRC to conduct post-disaster field research involving human participants should investigate their particular university HREC{\textquoteright}s provisions (if any) for expedited review of above-low risk research well in advance of an actual disaster event and plan for possible post-disaster research accordingly. One approach suggested by several of the responding HRECs was that researchers should prepare a generic ethics application for possible above-low risk post-disaster research, secure provisional ethics approval, and submit a subsequent Application For Modification of the research for expedited approval once the specifics of a study are known.

}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @conference {bnh-1616, title = {Urban Search and Rescue Operations in Tropical Climates Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

The physiological burden of Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) operations in the tropics is poorly understood. Sixteen trained USAR personnel (90.4kg, 1.81m, 39.6yrs) participated in a 24hr simulated exercise conducted during November in Northern Australia. Participants provided written informed consent for this study and were recruited from NT Fire and Rescue and QLD Fire and Emergency Services, resulting in 8 heat acclimatised (HA) and 8 non-heat acclimatised (NHA) responders. Physiological monitoring included core temperature (Tc) through the use of ingestible thermometers based on established protocols1. The initial 4 hour shift (ambient 34.0oC, 48\% relative humidity) resulted in 15 of the 16 participants exceeding the ISO9886 Tc safe working limit of 38.5oC. From the 80th minute of the initial shift, HA sustained a significantly (p\<0.01) higher Tc (38.6oC) than the NHA cohort (38.1oC) despite both groups perceiving their body temperature equally as hot. Following the initial shift, only 2 participants exceeded Tc 38.5oC, likely due to crews suffering from the heat strain endured during the first 4 hours. Seven (5 NHA, 2 HA) of the 16 participants presented to medical staff during this period with symptoms of headache, nausea and exhaustion. Pacing of effort was apparent for non-heat acclimatised personnel. Year round heat acclimatisation through physical training is likely to improve operational capability of deployed teams. More frequent rotation of crews to permit monitoring through a rehabilitation sector, inclusive of active cooling options, is likely to reduce physiological strain and heat related illness during deployment to tropical regions.

}, author = {M Brearley and I Norton and M Hutton and D Rush and S Smith and H Fuentes} } @article {bnh-1841, title = {Using discrete event simulation cellular automata models to determine multi-mode travel times and routes of terrestrial suppression resources to wildland fires}, journal = {European Journal of Operational Research}, volume = {241}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {763-770}, chapter = {763}, abstract = {

Forest fires can impose substantial social, environmental and economic burdens on the communities on which they impact. Well managed and timely fire suppression can demonstrably reduce the area burnt and minimise consequent losses. In order to effectively coordinate emergency vehicles for fire suppression, it is important to have an understanding of the time that elapses between vehicle dispatch and arrival at a fire. Forest fires can occur in remote locations that are not necessarily directly accessible by road. Consequently estimations of vehicular travel time may need to consider both on and off road travel. We introduce and demonstrate a novel framework for estimating travel times and determining optimal travel routes for vehicles travelling from bases to forest fires where both on and off road travel may be necessary. A grid based, cost-distance approach was utilised, where a travel time surface was computed indicating travel time from the reported fire location. Times were calculated using a discrete event simulation cellular automata (CA) model, with the CA progressing outwards from the fire location. Optimal fastest travel paths were computed by recognising chains of parent{\textendash}child relationships. Our results achieved comparable results to traditional network analysis techniques when considering travel along roads; however the method was also demonstrated to be effective in estimating travel times and optimal routes in complex terrain.

}, keywords = {Transport; Network; environment and climate change; Routing; Simulation}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2014.09.019}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221714007401}, author = {Thomas Duff and Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {bnh-6999, title = {Using environmental criminology theories to compare {\textquoteleft}youth misuse of fire{\textquoteright} across age groups in New South Wales}, journal = {Australian \& New Zealand Journal of Criminology}, volume = {50}, year = {2015}, month = {07/2015}, pages = {100-102}, abstract = {

Youth misuse of fire is a substantive community concern. Despite evidence which indicates youths account for a significant proportion of all deliberately lit fires within Australia, an absence of up-to-date, contextually specific research means the exact scope and magnitude of youth misuse of fire within Australia remains unknown. Despite research suggesting commonalities exist between youth misuse of fire and juvenile offending more broadly, misuse of fire is rarely explained using criminological theory. In light of this gap, a descriptive analysis of youth misuse of fire within New South Wales was performed. Routine Activity Theory and Crime Pattern Theory were tested to explain differences in misuse of fire across age groups. Results suggest these environmental theories offer useful frameworks for explaining youth misuse of fire in New South Wales. It is argued that the Routine Activity Theory and Crime Pattern Theory can be employed to better inform youth misuse of fire policy and prevention efforts.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865815596794}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0004865815596794}, author = {Kamarah Pooley and Claire Ferguson} } @article {bnh-4043, title = {Using intervention-oriented evaluation to diagnose and correct students{\textquoteright} persistent climate change misconceptions: A Singapore case study}, journal = {Evaluation and Program Planning}, volume = {52}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, abstract = {

The evaluation of classroom-based educational interventions is fraught with tensions, the most critical of which is choosing between focusing the inquiry on measuring the effects of treatment or in proximately utilizing the data to improve practice. This paper attempted to achieve both goals through the use of intervention-oriented evaluation of a professional development program intended to diagnose and correct students{\textquoteright} misconceptions of climate change. Data was gathered, monitored and analyzed in three stages of a time-series design: the baseline, treatment and follow-up stages. The evaluation itself was the {\textquoteleft}intervention{\textquoteright} such that the data was allowed to {\textquoteleft}contaminate{\textquoteright} the treatment. This was achieved through giving the teacher unimpeded access to the collected information and to introduce midcourse corrections as she saw fit to her instruction. Results showed a significant development in students{\textquoteright} conceptual understanding only after the teacher{\textquoteright}s decision to use direct and explicit refutation of misconceptions. Due to the accessibility of feedback, it was possible to locate specifically at which point in the process that the intervention was most effective. The efficacy of the intervention was then measured through comparing the scores across the three research stages. The inclusion of a comparison group to the design is recommended for future studies.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2015.04.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149718915000464?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Liberty Pascua and Chew-Hung Chang} } @article {bnh-1661, title = {Using LiDAR for forest and fuel structure mapping: options, benefits, requirements and costs}, number = {64}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Understanding fuel structure is important for assessing suppression difficulty, risk of damage from bushfires, monitoring fuel build up and planning hazard reduction programs. Technologies such as airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) can provide precise information about fuel structure over larger areas. However, the use of LiDAR by fire managers is still in the early stages and has not been implemented through any routine operational program in Australia.

This report aims to address this situation by describing and evaluating the maturity and suitability of airborne LiDAR to derive the different types of information needed in forest fuel assessment. It does so through a set of questions scoped in consultation with fire managers through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts{\textquoteright}. The language and technical detail is aimed at a wide audience with fields of expertise outside LiDAR.

This report first covers some of the basic principles on LiDAR and then focuses on the analysis of the information content and accuracy of airborne LiDAR to retrieve the forest fuel attributes that are important for fire management. The information that can be derived about the height, cover fraction and density of different over- and understorey layers is assessed, along with other useful information that may be derived. Additional measurements that help to make more optimal use of airborne LiDAR data are presented, including terrestrial laser scanning, UAV-borne LiDAR, and airborne imaging. Guidance is provided on discovering existing LiDAR data, factors determining the cost of new LiDAR data acquisition, and options for processing the data. Finally, the current and future development in the use of LiDAR for fire management are discussed.

Summarising, airborne LiDAR may be considered a mature data product that is commercially available, using established data standards. However, standardised data specifications and processing methods for applications in fuel mapping do not yet exist. Essential aspects to consider are the type of fuel information, accuracy and spatial detail desired. Greater data density can increase accuracy and spatial detail, but will also increase the cost of acquisition. In forests with a dense overstorey canopy high data density may be the only way to obtain information on the understorey. In small-scale applications, field or UAV-mounted LiDAR systems may be a suitable alternative for airborne LiDAR.

Priority areas for research and development to achieve more cost-effective and successful use of LiDAR by the fire management community were identified. This includes the development of standardised methods to acquire and process airborne LiDAR data for fuel mapping, the validation of these methods using field measurements, and investigation of full-waveform airborne LiDAR as a promising alternative to current LiDAR data collection methods. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts{\textquoteright} is working with end users to pursue each of these lines of enquiry.

}, issn = {64}, author = {Marta Yebra and Marselis, S and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chen, Yang} } @article {bnh-2344, title = {Using natural disaster scenarios to better understand emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {137}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to produce realistic natural disaster event scenarios to help emergency managers understand and prepare for eventual natural disasters. Scenarios consist of numerical data such as maps and tables representing the impacts of a plausible natural disaster scenarios; plausibility is determined by analyzing past event occurrence, intensity and impact data. Scenarios are created by using a suite of analysis tools including statistical inference, expert elicitation and comparative analysis in order to create abstract representations of an event, which is as close to reality as possible.

Over the past year, this project has delivered its first two complete scenarios, namely, an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 occuring in the Para fault underneath Adelaide CBD, and a tropical cyclone affecting SE Queensland (to be delivered third quarter 2015). The outcomes of the Adelaide scenario comprise:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Total aggregated damage to residential and commercial properties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Maps showing the distribution and intensity of damage to buildings and casualties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Distribution of infrastructure and essential facilities (hospitals, schools, roads, etc) that would be destroyed in such an event

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Comparative analysis with past events

These outcomes and their detailed interpretation were delivered in a corresponding technical note. Results were presented to end-users in a workshop held in Adelaide including representatives of SAFECOM and other SA government agencies including SA police and DPTI. According feedback from end-users, future scenarios should:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Take into account the distribution of vulnerable populations (elderly, disabled)

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Account for the relationship between different infrastructure systems (e.g. how damage to roads impacts hospital operations).

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Cost of response and cost-benfit analysis of mitigation measures

Following this, work on year 2 scenarios has begun. A workshop was held with NSW SES end user to determine appropriate scenario events of interest to their agency. This complemented comments and suggestions drawn from the full end-user community at the most recent RAF. Resultant scenarios to be explored over the coming year will be:

  1. A sequence of minor and major flood events in NSW
  2. Heatwave mortality during a major event in VIC
  3. Tropical cyclone induced flooding in SE Qld and northern NSW
}, issn = {137}, author = {Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-1837, title = {Validation of a novel attentional bias modification task: The future may be in the cards}, journal = {Behaviour Research and Therapy}, volume = {65}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, pages = {93-100}, chapter = {93}, abstract = {

Attentional bias modification (ABM) is a promising therapeutic tool aimed at changing patterns of attentional selectivity associated with heightened anxiety. A number of studies have successfully implemented ABM using the modified dot-probe task. However others have not achieved the attentional change required to achieve emotional benefits, highlighting the need for new ABM methods. The current study compared the effectiveness of a newly developed ABM task against the traditional dot-probe ABM task. The new person-identity-matching (PIM) task presented participants with virtual cards, each depicting a happy and angry person. The task encourages selective attention toward or away from threat by requiring participants to make matching judgements between two cards, based either on the identities of the happy faces, or of the angry faces. Change in attentional bias achieved by both ABM tasks was measured by a dot-probe assessment task. Their impact on emotional vulnerability was assessed by measuring negative emotional reactions to a video stressor. The PIM task succeeded in modifying attentional bias, and exerting an impact on emotional reactivity, whereas this was not the case for the dot-probe task. These results are considered in relation to the potential clinical utility of the current task in comparison to traditional ABM methodologies.

}, keywords = {Attentional bias modification; Anxiety; Cognitive bias; Emotional disorders}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.brat.2014.12.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005796714002009}, author = {Lies Notebaert and Patrick Clarke and Ben Grafton and Colin MacLeod} } @conference {bnh-2099, title = {Verification of soil moisture from land surface models and traditional soil dryness indices - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-2074, title = {Victoria fire weather climatology dataset - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Sarah Harris and Graham A. Mills and Brown, T and Domagoj Podmar and H. Reinbold and Matt Fearon} } @article {bnh-2358, title = {Volcanic eruptions and disruptions}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, abstract = {

In recent years, volcanic eruptions have severely disrupted air travel, causing widespread havoc on economies, and losses for insurers. Emma Phillips of Risk Frontiers explores the direct and indirect impacts of volcanoes.

The insurance industry strives to estimate the cost and understand the impact of future natural hazard events. Insurers and reinsurers have been the key risk takers and, ultimately, the shock absorbers in today{\textquoteright}s modern world (Haueter, 2013). Through research in areas such as engineering, economics, earth sciences and geography, we have come to better understand the direct impact natural hazard events have on the built environment.

}, url = {http://www.actuaries.digital/2015/10/08/volcanic-eruptions-and-disruptions/}, author = {Phillips, E} } @article {bnh-2507, title = {A vulnerability assessment tool for residential structures and extreme wind events}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Studies of hurricane damage to residential buildings confirm that the risk of wind and/or water damage related losses can be mitigated via retrofit solutions. However, adoption of appropriate retrofits by homeowners has been limited despite its obvious benefits. For several reasons, including high cost of retrofitting, the practical difficulty of implementing upgrades, and other homeowner priorities, the level of structural retrofits remain low. This paper proposes a performance-based design approach to retrofitting, targeted for residential homeowners (and their construction team) to advise on incremental retrofits that ultimately result in desired performance targets for windresistant houses. To specifically engage the homeowner, a user-friendly smartphone application is developed that evaluates the wind resistance and vulnerability of existing homes. The app provides each homeowner an individualized vulnerability assessment, while engaging and educating them on the effects of structural systems and building characteristics on damage and on the options for retrofits and costs associated with the work. The vulnerability assessment is determined using a database of fragility curves, developed originally for the FEMA{\textquoteright}s HAZUS-MH program, and adapted for this use. The analysis yields the top three recommended retrofits for each house as-is, and its expected hurricane-induced economic losses compared against the predicted loss if all the retrofits were conducted. Beta trials of the mobile app will be conducted in at-risk coastal communities in Florida, USA. The authors suggest that direct engagement of homeowners in identifying wind mitigation techniques and solutions may yield more positive outcomes than traditional communication approach and it may eventually increase the number of building retrofits.

}, author = {Daniel Smith and David Roueche and Austin P Thompson and David O Prevatt} } @article {bnh-3381, title = {Vulnerability of buildings and civil infrastructure to tropical cyclones: A preliminary review of modelling approaches and literature}, number = {244}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report will focus predominantly on the response of assets to extreme wind and flood (coastal and inland inundation) and each asset/network class will be further investigated under the following categories.

o Residential buildings

o Other building types, e.g. commercial, industrial

o Power systems
o Road and transport
o Water supply
o Telecommunication

Given the broad scope of this field, we do not attempt an all-encompassing overview of all works ever undertaken on the topic (particularly for civil infrastructure), but instead focus on those models of most benefit to the scenario analyses required of this project. Because many of the models have been developed internationally, a primary question to be answered is whether they are applicable to Australian conditions.\ 

This document forms a key component of the BNHCRC project {\textquotedblleft}Using realistic disaster scenario analysis to understand natural hazard impacts and emergency management requirements{\textquotedblright} and is structured as follows. First we begin with a brief introduction to the theory and concepts involved in vulnerability modelling. Existing building and civil infrastructure vulnerability models are then reviewed in sections 3 and 4, with the sub-hazards of wind and flood addressed separately where appropriate. Recommendations outlining suitable tools/models for implementation will be made, with a summary of literature presented in tabular form at the end of each section. The concept of network interdependence will be briefly reviewed in section 6 as it applies to network infrastructure and a summary of all recommendations will be provided in 7.\ \ 

}, issn = {244}, author = {M. S. Mason and Korah Parackal} } @article {bnh-1950, title = {Vulnerability of Floodways under Extreme Flood Events}, journal = {Natural Hazards Review}, volume = {17}, year = {2015}, month = {13/07/2015}, abstract = {

Floodways are commonly used in rural road networks due to the economic and environmental benefits offered as a low-cost and practical road crossing in flood-prone areas. They are designed with provision for submergence so that water flows over with minimum impediment to flow, at a probability given design flood. The floodway design process is traditionally governed by hydraulic aspects rather than structural aspects. Hydrological condition, availability of material, and familiarity of construction techniques are significant when selecting the floodway type. Nevertheless, extreme conditions can cause significant damage to floodways, as was evident from the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events, during which 58\% of floodways in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) area in Queensland, Australia, which is the case study area of this paper, were damaged, causing huge economic lost at council and national level. This created a new track in research and development activities to assess vulnerability and to find methods for improving the resilience of floodways during extreme flood events. In line with this, the present study evaluates local design guidelines and damaged floodways to assess failure modes and severity of damage using a damage index (DI) method.

}, keywords = {Damage index, Damage severity, Design guidelines, Flood, Floodway, Vulnerability}, issn = {1527-6996}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000194}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000194}, author = {Buddhi Wahalathantri and Weena Lokuge and Karu Karunasena and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-2232, title = {We have not lived long enough: Sensemaking and learning from bushfire in Australia}, journal = {Management Learning}, year = {2015}, month = {04/2015}, abstract = {

Organizations increasingly find themselves responding to unprecedented natural disasters that are experienced as complex, unpredictable, and harmful. We examine how organizations make sense and learn from these novel experiences by examining three Australian bushfires. We show how sensemaking and learning occurred during the public inquiries that followed these events, as well as how learning continued afterward with the help of {\textquotedblleft}learning cues.{\textquotedblright} We propose a model that links public inquiry activities to changes in organizational practices. Given the interesting times in which we live, this model has important implications for future research on how new organizational practices can be enacted after public inquiries have concluded their work.

}, doi = {10.1177/13500507615577047}, url = {http://mlq.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/04/01/1350507615577047.abstract}, author = {Graham Dwyer and Cynthia Hardy} } @article {bnh-2415, title = {Web 2.0 in disaster and emergency: a risk assessment of tortious liability}, year = {2015}, author = {Melanie Baker-Jones} } @conference {bnh-2083, title = {"We{\textquoteright}ve got trouble getting around but we{\textquoteright}re still alright": disability identities and the implications for bushfire planning - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Danielle Every} } @article {bnh-1691, title = {What{\textquoteright}s the Big Deal? Responder Experiences of Large Animal Rescue in Australia}, journal = {PLOS Currents Disasters}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, abstract = {

Background: The management of large animals during disasters and emergencies creates difficult operational environments for responders. The aims of this study were to identify the exact challenges faced by Australian emergency response personnel in their interactions with large animals and their owners, and to determine the readiness for large animal rescue (LAR) in Australia.

Methods: A survey tool collected the views and experiences of a broad cross section of emergency services personnel operating across Australia and across all hazards. Data were collected from 156 responders including Australian emergency services personnel, emergency managers such as federal agricultural departments, and local government.

Results: Overall, many of the respondents had serious concerns, and felt that there were significant issues in relation to LAR in Australia. These included the coordination of emergency care for animals, physical management of large animals, inter-agency coordination, and dealing with animal owners. Very few respondents had received any formal training in LAR, with an overwhelming majority indicating they would attend formal training if it were made available.

Discussion: Results help to guide the development of evidence-informed support tools to assist operational response and community engagement, and the production of professional development resources.

}, keywords = {animals, disasters, emergencies, readiness, rescue}, doi = {10.1371/currents.dis.71d34082943fa239dbfbf9597232c8a5}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/whats-the-big-deal-responder-experiences-of-large-animal-rescue-in-australia/}, author = {Bradley P Smith and Kirrilly Thompson and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-1871, title = {Whose risk is it anyway?}, number = {074}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This desktop review presents a summary of risk ownership allocation for the strategic management of natural hazard risks in Australia. It forms part of the project Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale undertaken for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.

Risk ownership here is restricted to strategic pre- and post-events for natural hazard disaster management. Other aspects of ownership, such as the undertaking of emergency response, where Australia has a significant and well-recognised capacity, are not addressed.

Risk ownership is explored through three questions:

These questions take in the two main definitions of risk ownership that cover the asset owner and the risk manager: the person or entity with the accountability or responsibility of managing a risk.

The key findings are described according to the strategic aspects of managing the risk of natural hazards:

Ownership was examined within a matrix of broad institutions (federal, state/territory and local government, business and industry, and civil society) and values (built, social and environment assets, and infrastructure). Risk ownership across this matrix was found to be allocated according to individual hazards, ownership of assets, tasks associated with the risk management process and policy/legislative instruments.

Risk ownership is highly dynamic. The systemic nature of natural hazard disasters is characterised by their potential to cross domains and move from one risk owner to another, affecting a wide range of ownership. Risk ownership is also changing as new operational structures and processes are emerging, and growing within and across institutions. Also found was variable interpretation of risk, risk ownership and lack of clarity of appropriate governance, particularly across areas of multiple ownership.

Review of pre- and post-event policies and strategies revealed ownership strengths in the following areas:

Ownership gaps were observed in the following areas:

Areas of interest regarding ownership that will be explored further in the next phase of this project include:

This review has highlighted some of the challenges for ascertaining the allocation of risk ownership for natural hazards and disasters. It has also revealed areas where ownership is less well allocated and potential pathways for this to be developed. \ The breadth and complexity of integration and coordination across institutions to enable effective management of natural hazard risk effectively needs the comprehensive allocation of risk ownership to evolve over time. This will require new structures and adaptive ways of thinking that can incorporate new knowledge as it emerges. It will also require institutions to think systemically, not only within and across their own domains, but also across the broad system of values that are the foundation of our economy.

}, issn = {074}, author = {Celeste Young and Symons, J and Roger Jones} } @conference {bnh-1891, title = {The 2012 Moe Earthquake and Earthquake Attenuation in South Eastern Australia}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference 2014}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, abstract = {

In 2012 the state of Victoria experienced its largest earthquake in thirty years. The epicentre of the ML 5.4 earthquake is located near the town of Moe, within an area of elevated seismicity called the south-eastern seismic zone. The main event as well as over 200 aftershocks were recorded and located in a coordinated study by the University of Melbourne (UoM), Geoscience Australia (GA) and the Seismology Research Centre. At the time of the largest aftershock (ML 4.4), five instruments were operating within a 20km radius from the epicentre {\textendash} providing a unique near-source strong motion record. This paper presents the spectral acceleration response results captured from the two events at a range of distances. Estimations of the VS30 parameter have been obtained for the underlying soil structure of some of the recordings stations using available borehole data, soil classification maps, observation of the natural period and using the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method. The acceleration response spectra calculated from the ground motions are thus at sites with estimated site-soil properties and these spectra have been compared with estimated values from potentially applicable attenuation models, including the latest NGA-West 2 functions released in 2014. These comparisons indicate the level of compatibility of spectra obtained using the actual data with predictions made using the different attenuation models. The results show a wide range of accuracy with the current attenuation models that are thought to be applicable to the region. This is of particular importance in assisting to select the most suitable attenuation models for future Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses in eastern Australia (Non-Cratonic) and other regions of Australia; the results from this type of hazard analysis are highly dependent on the attenuation model chosen to represent the area of interest.

}, keywords = {Attenuation, Australia, GMPE, HVSR, Intraplate, Moe Earthquake, NGA-West 2, South Eastern}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Anita Amirsardari and D. Sandiford and Elisa Lumantarna and Helen M. Goldsworthy and G. Gibson and Michael Asten} } @article {BF-4370, title = {Alternatives to polysomnography (PSG): A validation of wrist actigraphy and a partial-PSG system}, journal = {Behavior Research Methods}, year = {2014}, month = {January 2014}, abstract = {The objective of this study was to assess the validity of a sleep/wake activity monitor, an energy expenditure activity monitor, and a partial-polysomnography system at measuring sleep and wake under identical conditions. Secondary aims were to evaluate the sleep/wake thresholds for each activity monitor and to compare the three devices. To achieve these aims, two nights of sleep were recorded simultaneously with polysomnography (PSG), two activity monitors, and a partial-PSG system in a sleep laboratory. Agreement with PSG was evaluated epoch by epoch and with summary measures including total sleep time (TST) and wake after sleep onset (WASO). All of the devices had high agreement rates for identifying sleep and wake, but the partial-PSG system was the best, with an agreement of 91.6 \% {\textpm} 5.1 \%. At their best thresholds, the sleep/wake monitor (medium threshold, 87.7 \% {\textpm} 7.6 \%) and the energy expenditure monitor (very low threshold, 86.8 \% {\textpm} 8.6 \%) had similarly high rates of agreement. The summary measures were similar to those determined by PSG, but the partial-PSG system provided the most consistent estimates. Although the partial-PSG system was the most accurate device, both activity monitors were also valid for sleep estimation, provided that appropriate thresholds were selected. Each device has advantages, so the primary consideration for researchers will be to determine which best suits a given research design.}, keywords = {Accelerometry, Actigraphy, Wireless sleep monitoring}, doi = {dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13428-013-0438-7}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758\%2Fs13428-013-0438-7}, author = {Anastasi Kosmadopoulos and Charli Sargent and David Darwent and Xuan Zhou and Gregory Roach} } @article {bnh-2607, title = {Bushfire survival preparations by householders in at-risk areas of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {29}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

While Australian state and territory governments devote considerable resources to combating bushfires, landowners and householders are increasingly expected to take responsibility for protecting their property and for their personal safety. All Australian states and territories have community bushfire safety programs in place which provide information and advice to householders about bushfire survival. This paper describes findings from a 2012 survey of 584 residents in at-risk areas of south-eastern Australia and describes generally low levels of planning and preparation for bushfires. Householder lack of planning and preparation for safe evacuation if threatened was especially concerning1.\ 

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-29-02-05}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Wright, Lyndsey} } @article {BF-4326, title = {Bushfires extending into the rural/urban interface - Final report for the operational readiness of rural firefighters (air toxins) project}, year = {2014}, month = {02/2014}, abstract = {Bushfires extending into the rural urban interface (RUI) will release a variety of pollutants into the atmosphere, some of which could potentially harm fire and emergency service workers and residents in the vicinity of the fire. At present, extensive research on exposures to air toxics has been conducted at bushfires and prescribed burns within Australia. Exposure studies have also focused on toxicity of fire effluents in the context of structural fires. However the findings cannot be easily extrapolated to the rural-urban context. Exposures at fires in the RUI differ due to the presence of a more complex mixture of fuels, more complex fire behaviour and smoke plume dispersion and different firefighting tactics including minimal respiratory protection and working under extreme weather conditions. These aspects add complexity to predicting firefighters{\textquoteright} exposures to toxic chemicals and make it difficult to extrapolate from existing research findings on exposures at bushfires, prescribed burns and structural fires. Research has also been conducted on emissions from a range of burning materials under well-controlled conditions. While these studies provide important information on types of air pollutants released during combustion of materials, the data are presented as emission yields and are not necessarily representative of personal exposures. Currently, fire and land management agencies do not have scientific evidence to quantify the exposure to air toxics faced by workers at the RUI. There is a need to better understand the environment of the interface to assess exposure risks to firefighters, emergency service workers and residents during and after fires. The objective of the research project is to improve our understanding of potentially toxic emissions and their exposure concentrations at the RUI by creating a scenario-based exposure assessment that will define exposure risks to firefighters. The emphasis is on inhalation exposures resulting from burning structures at the RUI at varying distances from the emission source and the smoke plume. }, author = {Reisen, Fabienne and Borgas, Michael} } @article {bnh-3463, title = {Children{\textquoteright}s understanding of natural hazards in Christchurch: reflecting on a 2003 study}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {29}, year = {2014}, pages = {66}, chapter = {66}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-29-01-16}, author = {David Johnston and Sarah Standring and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3461, title = {Classroom responses of New Zealand school teachers following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {72}, year = {2014}, month = {06/2014}, pages = {1075-1092}, chapter = {1075}, abstract = {

Following a damaging magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand on February 22, 2011, an unprecedented number of displaced school children were enrolled temporarily or permanently in new schools throughout New Zealand. This study utilized accounts from primary school teachers in New Zealand, derived from focus groups scheduled in March and April 2011 for an evaluation of a disaster preparedness teaching resource, to examine how these disasters impacted individuals and schools outside of Christchurch. The educators{\textquoteright} focus group accounts provide an illustration of classroom responses including providing emotional support to displaced children, informal classroom discussions, curricular responses, addressing disaster rumors, and information seeking through peers. Some recommendations are provided on ways to support teachers{\textquoteright} important roles in disaster recovery, including targeting evidence-based guidance and teaching resources to schools enrolling displaced children, dispelling disaster rumors through schools and facilitating peer mentoring among teachers. An overarching lesson is that communities would benefit from teachers being better equipped to provide emotional support and responsive disaster education to children after disasters.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-014-1053-3}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11069-014-1053-3}, author = {Vicki Johnson and Kevin Ronan} } @article {BF-4307, title = {Communicating Risk Information Processing Under Stress: Community Reactions - project report 2012-2013}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {1-74}, abstract = {The Information Processing Under Stress: Community Reactions project sits within the research stream called {\textquoteleft}Communicating Risk{\textquoteright}. The project has a focus on increasing our understanding of how residents living in bushfire prone areas can be motivated to prepare better for the bushfire season and make better decisions when a fire threatens their community. The project entails a variety of research phases that aim to answer questions such as {\textquoteleft}Why do so many people anticipate responding indecisively when a fire threatens their community?{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Why do people fail to properly prepare for the fire season even when they intend to do so at the start?{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}How can information and feedback regarding residents{\textquoteright} preparedness best be presented to them to motivate them to prepare further?{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Does the effectiveness of certain message framings in heightening preparedness levels depend on person characteristics?{\textquoteright}. More specific, the project contains 8 phases of quantitative research, which all focus on different factors, both situational (e.g., message framing) and personality (e.g., high versus low anxiety individuals) based, that may be linked to people{\textquoteright}s motivation, expectations, and information processing, and influence their subsequent decision making and actions. The main goal of these 8 phases of research is to gather a better understanding of what preparedness is, how different types of information may influence people{\textquoteright}s willingness to prepare, and how different people may react differently to the same piece of information. }, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {bnh-1741, title = {Community Understanding and Awareness of Bushfire Safety: October 2013 Bushfires - Overview}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

This overview provides a consolidation of the findings from the interviews and online surveys conducted by the\ Bushfire CRC researcher into the community understanding of bushfire safety and responses in the context of the\ October 2013 Bushfires in NSW. This work was commissioned by NSW Rural Fire Service.\ This research had two separate {\textendash} but interconnected {\textendash} components, (i) a series of interviews with residents in\ a number of fire impacted communities, and (ii) an online survey (also targeted to those communities but open\ more broadly to fire impacted areas in NSW ) each of these has been analysed and reported upon in detail in the\ reports submitted. Both components focused on common themes and the following summarises the combined\ responses.\ 

The executive summaries from the two individual reports are provided at the end of the consolidated findings.

}, isbn = {978-0-9925027-3-7}, author = {Wright, Lyndsey and Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian and Bronwyn Horsey and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-1742, title = {Community Understanding and Awareness of Bushfire Safety: October 2013 Bushfires - Part 1}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

The calendar year 2013 was one of the worst on record for destructive bushfires in NSW. In January,\ fires swept across numerous areas, destroying more than 50 homes. Then in October, bushfires\ again threatened many communities, with more than 200 homes lost. Following both of these\ bushfire events, NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) asked the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre\ (CRC) to: (a) coordinate a program of interviews with residents in three seriously affected areas; and\ (b) commission an online survey of residents in the same affected areas. The purpose was to assist\ the organisation to learn as much as possible about residents{\textquoteright} prior understandings of bushfire risk\ and their experiences during the fires, thus contributing to improved community safety for the\ future.

For this study NSW RFS identified three areas that had been impacted by significant bushfire events\ during October 2013: (i) greater Blue Mountains (including locations at Bell, Clarence, Dargan,\ Lithgow, Mount Irvine; Mount Victoria; Faulconbridge, Springwood, Winmalee, Yellow Rock){\textemdash}\ significant fire activity 16 October{\textendash}13 November; (ii) Port Stephens (including locations at Medowie,\ Raymond Terrace, Tomago, Williamtown; Salt Ash){\textemdash}significant fire activity 13{\textendash}23 October; and\ (iii) Wingecarribee Shire (including locations at Balmoral Village, Colo Vale, Yanderra, Yerrinbool){\textemdash}\ significant fire activity 17{\textendash}24 October.

}, isbn = {978-0-9925027-3-7}, author = {Jim McLennan and Wright, Lyndsey and Birch, Adrian} } @article {bnh-1743, title = {Community Understanding and Awareness of Bushfire Safety: October 2013 Bushfires - Part 2}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

In October 2013, a number of large destructive bushfires resulted in the loss of property in the greater Sydney area. Following such events, it is important to liaise with the community to understand their actions on the day and what agency information was effective and what was not. Learning from these events means that management responses can be improved for future bushfires, hopefully resulting in a reduced loss of property and the ongoing protection of life.

The Centre for Environmental Risk Management at the University of Wollongong ran an extensive online survey for residents in the fire affected ares. \ 

}, isbn = {978-0-9925027-3-7}, author = {Bronwyn Horsey and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-1429, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings - Preliminary Building Schema}, number = {003}, year = {2014}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Within Australian communities there is a wide range of building types. These vary in many attributes that include floor area, number of storeys, age, architectural style, fit out quality, construction material types and the level of maintenance. For mitigation research it is necessary to take this range of building types and geometrics and discretise it into building classes or categories of similar, if not identical, vulnerability. This {\textquotedblleft}pigeon holing{\textquotedblright} strategy makes research on impact, risk and mitigation more tractable in that vulnerabilities can be assigned to each class with the reduced variability within the class captured in the uncertainty of the model. Available exposure information can also be mapped to the schema along with building types that can particularly benefit from retrofit interventions.

This report presents the preliminary building schema proposed for the Cost Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Flood Prone Buildings BNHCRC project. The report discusses the utility of a building schema and which building attributes are important for distinguishing between houses of different vulnerabilities in the Australian building stock.

}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Martin Wehner} } @conference {bnh-1889, title = {Deaggregating the differences between seismic hazard assessments at a single site}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference 2014}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

In the last few years there have been several probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) of Adelaide. The resulting 500 year PGA obtained are 0.059, 0.067, 0.109 and 0.141. The differences between the first three are readily accounted for by choice of GMPE, how faults are included and differences in recurrence estimation, with each of these having a similar level of importance. As no GMPEs exist for the Mt Lofty and Flingers Ranges the choices of GMPEs were all based on geological analogies. The choice of at what weighting to include low attenuation, that is a stable continental crust, GMPE was most important. At a return period of 500 year the inclusion of faults was not necessarily significant. The choice of whether the faults behaved with Characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter recurrence statistics had the highest impact on the hazard with the choice of slip rate the next most important. A low slip rate Characteristic fault, while increasing the hazard for longer return periods (i.e. >=2500 years), results in only a minor increase at 500 years. The magnitude frequency distribution b-value for the four studies were 1.043, 0.88, 0.915 and 0.724. For the same activity in the magnitude range of 3.0 to 3.5, the activity level at M 6.0 is an order of magnitude higher for a b-value of 0.724 compared to a b-value of 1.043. This increase in activity rate of larger earthquakes significantly increases the hazard. The average of the first three studies is 0.078{\textpm}0.022 (0.056 {\textendash}0.100) g. This range is reflecting the intrinsic uncertainty in calculating PSHAs where many of the inputs are poorly constrained. The results for the highest hazard level PSHA study (i.e. 0.141g) can be explained by their use of a low b-value (i.e. 0.724).

}, author = {M. Leonard and Ryan D. Hoult and Somerville, P and G. Gibson and D. Sandiford and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna and S. Spiliopoulos} } @article {bnh-3471, title = {Decision making on transport network planning and the impact on community, economy and the environment}, journal = {Procedia Economics and Finance}, volume = {18}, year = {2014}, month = {12/2014}, pages = {882-891}, chapter = {882}, abstract = {

Decision making on transport network planning have an impact on society, economy, environment, travel patterns, reliability and performance of transport networks. Transport corridors provide for all modes of transport and also contribute towards economic growth and community prosperity.

The paper presents the analysis of a case study to illustrate a typical transport planning process which in this case has spanned over a period of 40 years. The study captures different stages of the planning process and identifies the gaps. It is noted that whilst the area is known to be prone to disasters, no consideration has been given to the transport infrastructure performance during a disaster.

}, doi = {10.1016/S2212-5671(14)01014-4}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567114010144}, author = {Withanaarachchi, J and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-3457, title = {Drift performance of lightly reinforced concrete columns}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {59}, year = {2014}, month = {02/2014}, pages = {522-535}, chapter = {522}, abstract = {

This paper presents the findings of a research project investigating the lateral load drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns. Such columns are common in regions of low{\textendash}moderate seismicity, and although their strength properties are well defined, the drift performance is less understood. The paper presents the results of an experimental study undertaken and the development of a theoretical model for predicting the lateral load{\textendash}drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns. The model includes a study undertaken to estimate the drift capacity of lightly reinforced columns at lateral load failure and axial load failure based on a large database of previous experimental tests. The results of a case study example are presented and clearly indicate the dramatic impact that the axial load ratio has on the drift performance of lightly reinforced columns, particularly the significantly lower drift capacities that are available in compression dominated columns.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.11.016}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029613005701}, author = {Ari Wibowo and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-5181, title = {Drift performance of lightly reinforced concrete columns}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {59}, year = {2014}, month = {02/2014}, pages = {522-535}, chapter = {522}, abstract = {

This paper presents the findings of a research project investigating the lateral load drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns. Such columns are common in regions of low{\textendash}moderate seismicity, and although their strength properties are well defined, the drift performance is less understood. The paper presents the results of an experimental study undertaken and the development of a theoretical model for predicting the lateral load{\textendash}drift behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete columns. The model includes a study undertaken to estimate the drift capacity of lightly reinforced columns at lateral load failure and axial load failure based on a large database of previous experimental tests. The results of a case study example are presented and clearly indicate the dramatic impact that the axial load ratio has on the drift performance of lightly reinforced columns, particularly the significantly lower drift capacities that are available in compression dominated columns.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.11.016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029613005701?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Ari Wibowo and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Emad F Gad} } @article {bnh-3455, title = {Drift Performance of Point Fixed Glass Fa{\c c}ade Systems}, journal = {Advances in Structural Engineering}, volume = {17}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, pages = {1481-1495}, chapter = {1481}, abstract = {

Glass fa{\c c}ade systems in buildings are subject to racking actions caused by inter storey drifts from earthquakes and wind action. The performance of fa{\c c}ade systems is dependent on the amount of imposed drift and the interaction of the glass panels with the fa{\c c}ade structural support frames. There are two major concerns related to the glass fa{\c c}ade system performance during and immediately after a seismic event; hazards to people from falling glass and the cost associated with building down time and repair. It was observed that earthquake damage to glass fa{\c c}ade systems resulting from in-plane racking actions is increasingly common and yet there has been limited research published in this field. The research completed to date has mainly focused on traditional framed glass fa{\c c}ade systems; however, the racking performance of point fixed glass fa{\c c}ade system (PFGFS) is likely to be quite different. Therefore, the aim of the research presented in this paper is to assess the in-plane racking performance of PFGFS which is a fa{\c c}ade system gaining popularity worldwide.

Two unique full scale in-plane racking laboratory tests on typical PFGFS with different types of connections were conducted and specific racking mechanisms were identified. Sophisticated non-linear finite element models (FE models) were developed and benchmarked against experimental results with excellent correlation. Further detailed FE analyses were conducted to evaluate the individual drift contributions of each racking mechanism such as rigid body translation of the glass panels at the oversize holes for construction tolerance, spider arm rotation and spider arm deformation. It was found that most of the drift capacity is attributed to the rigid body translation at the oversize holes. In this paper, the laboratory test setup and the experimental results are discussed together with the confirmatory FE analysis results to assess the in-plane racking performance of the PFGFS.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1260/1369-4332.17.10.1481}, url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1260/1369-4332.17.10.1481}, author = {S Sivanerupan and John Wilson and Emad F Gad and Nelson Lam} } @article {bnh-3452, title = {Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {42}, year = {2014}, month = {01/2014}, pages = {139-157}, chapter = {139}, abstract = {

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000\ years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1653-0}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs00382-012-1653-0}, author = {Ivan D. Haigh and Leigh R. MacPherson and M. S. Mason and E.M.S Wijeratne and Charitha Pattiaratchi and R Crompton and Steve George} } @article {bnh-3451, title = {Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {42}, year = {2014}, month = {01/2014}, pages = {121-138}, chapter = {121}, abstract = {

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1}, author = {Ivan D. Haigh and E.M.S Wijeratne and Leigh R. MacPherson and Charitha Pattiaratchi and M. S. Mason and R Crompton and Steve George} } @article {bnh-3462, title = {Evaluating Children{\textquoteright}s Learning of Adaptive Response Capacities from ShakeOut, an Earthquake and Tsunami Drill in Two Washington State School Districts}, journal = {Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management}, volume = {11}, year = {2014}, month = {09/2014}, pages = {347-373}, chapter = {347}, abstract = {

In 2012, Washington state participated in ShakeOut, an annual, one-day event that encourages residents to practice {\textquotedblleft}drop, cover and hold on{\textquotedblright} drills for earthquakes and evacuation for tsunamis. To better understand the role of school drills in improving individual and community resilience to disasters, this evaluation examined the effectiveness of the ShakeOut drills in improving or maintaining children{\textquoteright}s accurate risk perceptions and adaptive response capacities for earthquakes and tsunamis. Using matched pretest and posttest questionnaires, the analysis examined both population level and individual differences in children{\textquoteright}s knowledge and scenario-based knowledge application before and after ShakeOut. Children demonstrated high levels of correct knowledge of protective actions for earthquakes and tsunamis both before and after ShakeOut. However, the findings indicate that significant portions of children have varying levels of knowledge of the causes of injury and approximately a third of children chose an incorrect action or indicated uncertainty in scenarios not commonly practiced in school earthquake drills. Also, more than a quarter of children were not aware they practiced vertical evacuation procedures for a tsunami during ShakeOut. Children would benefit from practice for different scenarios, such as when they are outside or traveling between classes, and explicit lessons on protective actions.

}, doi = {10.1515/jhsem-2014-0012}, url = {https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.2014.11.issue-3/jhsem-2014-0012/jhsem-2014-0012.xml}, author = {Vicki Johnson and David Johnston and Robin Peace and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3459, title = {Evaluations of disaster education programs for children: a methodological review}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {9}, year = {2014}, month = {09/2014}, pages = {107-123}, chapter = {107}, abstract = {

The purpose of this methodological literature review was to investigate how scholars and practitioners currently measure and judge the effectiveness of disaster education programs for children through evaluation. Froma systematic search of the published and gray literature, 35 studies were identified and analyzed to develop a categorization of the operational components of the existing body of research, including the types and sources of evaluations, research methods and designs, research participants, outcome indicators, approaches to analysis, and research limitations. A significant finding is that most of what is known about the effectiveness of disaster education programs for children is based on the results of quantitative studies with children that generally focused on measuring children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of disaster risks and protective actions and child reports of preparedness actions. The majority of descriptive and quasi-experimental studies concluded that programs were effective based on the portion or positive change in children{\textquoteright}s correct answers on surveys, and most correlational studies concluded positive outcomes such as household preparedness were associated with children{\textquoteright}s participation in disaster education programs. However, many of the studies had significant methodological limitations. While there is evidence of valuable knowledge change, there is still very limited empirical evidence of how disaster education programs facilitate children{\textquoteright}s roles in household preparedness, their self-protective capacities,or their likelihood of preparing for disasters as adults. In addition to the need to identify and refine program theory and meaningful outcome indicators, the authors suggest several other opportunities for future research.

}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000302}, author = {Vicki Johnson and Kevin Ronan and David Johnston and Robin Peace} } @article {bnh-1658, title = {Exploring 167 years of vulnerability: An examination of extreme heat events in Australia 1844{\textendash}2010}, journal = {Environmental Science and Policy}, volume = {42}, year = {2014}, month = {10/2014}, pages = {33-44}, chapter = {33}, abstract = {

Despite their relative importance in terms of human mortality, extreme heat events have not attracted the same level of study compared with other natural hazards in regards to vulnerability and implications for emergency management and policy change. Definitional confusion and inconsistencies in defining heat related deaths over time have made it difficult to determine an absolute death toll. Notwithstanding these issues, this study employs PerilAUS {\textendash} Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database of natural hazard event impacts {\textendash} in combination with official sources in an attempt to provide a lower-bound estimate of heat-associated deaths in Australia since European settlement. From 1844 to 2010, extreme heat events have been responsible for at least 5332 fatalities in Australia and, since 1900, 4555: more than the combined total of deaths from all other natural hazards. Over 30\% of those deaths occurred in just nine events.

Both deaths and death rates (per unit of population) fluctuate widely but show an overall decrease with time. The male to female death-rate ratio has fluctuated and approaches but does not reach equality in more recent times. In line with other studies, seniors have been the most vulnerable age group overall, with infants also over-represented. Policy implications in view of a warming climate and an ageing population are discussed.

}, keywords = {Extreme heat event, Heat waves, Mortality statistics, Natural disasters, Vulnerability}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000999}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Katharine Haynes and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and John McAneney and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira} } @article {bnh-4076, title = {Exposing hidden value trade-offs: sharing wildfire management responsibility between government and citizens}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2014}, month = {05/2014}, pages = {162-169}, chapter = {162}, abstract = {

Developing resilient communities and sharing responsibility for hazard management is the key to Australia{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}National Strategy for Disaster Resilience{\textquoteright}. There are, however, a wide range of conflicting views on the appropriate responsibilities of governments, citizens and communities that are not well recognised in the national policy discourse. What the ideas of resilient communities and shared responsibility mean for wildfire management and how these ideas might shape wildfire safety thinking and practice is therefore unclear and contested. This paper makes explicit some of the necessary, but often hidden, trade-offs between competing values that are implicit in assessments of where responsibility for wildfire management lies, and how it should be shared. After describing different ways in which responsibility is attributed and legitimated through legal and governance systems, this paper compares and contrasts potential legal and governance implications of four hypothetical scenarios for wildfire management, each of which portrays a contrasting set of extreme value trade-offs. The underlying purpose of the exercise is to encourage stakeholders to draw on the frameworks to explicitly acknowledge and debate the value trade-offs that are necessary, but most often unacknowledged, in more moderate decision-making about how to share responsibility for risk management between governments and citizens.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF12201}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF12201}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-1359, title = {Fire Danger Indices: Current Limitations and a Pathway to Better Indices}, number = {007}, year = {2014}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings in Australia currently rely heavily on McArthur{\textquoteright}s indices for forests and grasslands. Advances in fire and in meteorological science means that these indices do not adequately reflect current knowledge or recent technological advances. We now have the capability to provide information on fire danger at a much greater spatial and temporal resolution than previously, but do not fully utilise it. The indices are used for a wider range of purposes than originally envisaged, and growing societal expectations and changes in communication technology provide both the impetus and opportunity for a more detailed and more accurate service.

This report sets the agenda for fire danger policy and research into operations.

}, issn = {007}, author = {Yeo, Claire and Jeffrey Kepert and Hicks, Robin} } @inbook {BF-4302, title = {Firefighter decision making at the local incident and regional/state control levels}, booktitle = {Human Factors Challenges in Emergency Management Enhancing Individual and Team Performance in Fire and Emergency Services}, year = {2014}, publisher = {Ashgate}, organization = {Ashgate}, chapter = {8}, abstract = {This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art research that has been conducted within Australia, funded by the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre 2006-2010. The chapters source and contextualize their own research practice within the context of the international research literature. Therefore, while the research has occurred within Australia it will be of particular interest to scholars, students and practitioners in a number of other countries, particularly within the United States of America and in Europe. The fire and emergency services is a particularly large industry - in Australia alone it employs 250,000 personnel - yet there is very little by way of published human factors books addressing this sector directly. Emergency events frequently involve problems for which there may be unanticipated consequences and highly interdependent consequential effects. In short, emergency events are not necessarily as containable as may be work in other domains. As Karl Weick once commented, emergency events do not "play by the rules". This means that these research chapters tell us something about a potential future world of work that is highly dynamic, interdependent and for which improvisation and critical thinking and problem-solving are necessary pre-requisites. The discussions about individual and team performance will also be pertinent to others working in similar high-reliability, high-consequence domains. The chapters connect into an integrated body of work about individual and group performance and their limitations. }, isbn = {978-1-4724-0523-4}, url = {http://www.ashgate.com/isbn/9781472405234}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter A. Bremner} } @article {bnh-3458, title = {An historical perspective on the wind resistance of clay and concrete roofing tiles}, journal = {RCI Interface}, volume = {32}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, pages = {22-35}, chapter = {22}, abstract = {

Tiles are one of the oldest forms of roof covering, with usage dating back more than 5,000 years. This article presents an historical overview of roofing tiles in four parts, spanning from early development to the last 40 years of advancements in research and design related to wind load resistance. Code provisions and testing standards are addressed throughout, with emphasis on provisions in the state of Florida. This article also provides a description of ongoing research at the University of Florida to investigate the wind resistance of clay and concrete roofing tile systems.

}, url = {http://rci-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2014-11-smith-masters-gurley.pdf}, author = {Daniel Smith and Forrest J. Masters and Kurtis R. Gurley} } @article {bnh-2606, title = {How chief officers view success in fire policy and management}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {29}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, abstract = {

This paper reports on research that asked chief officers from Australia{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency services what they identify as a measure of success. When identifying appropriate measures of success, community members need to consider and acknowledge multiple, sometimes competing issues. Accordingly this research cannot give a definitive answer to {\textquoteleft}what is the measure of success?{\textquoteright} but it is argued that emergency services, political leaders and at-risk communities need to engage in a more meaningful discussion about what can realistically be expected from each other. The outcomes of those discussions have to move past the rhetoric that {\textquoteleft}this should never happen again{\textquoteright} and need to be reflected in the policy and legislative goals that instruct emergency managers and in the ongoing communication about risk and responsibility for managing risk.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-29-03-06}, author = {Dovers, Steve and Michael Eburn} } @book {bnh-1140, title = {Human Factors Challenges in Emergency Management}, year = {2014}, publisher = {Ashgate Publishing Ltd}, organization = {Ashgate Publishing Ltd}, address = {Farnham, Surrey UK}, issn = {9781409453055}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-3460, title = {Implementing Disaster Preparedness education in New Zealand primary schools}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {23}, year = {2014}, pages = {370-380}, chapter = {370}, abstract = {
Purpose
{\textendash} The purpose of this paper is to assess the national implementation of disaster preparedness education in New Zealand primary schools through the dissemination of\ What{\textquoteright}s the Plan, Stan?, a voluntary, curriculum-based teaching resource.

Design/methodology/approach

{\textendash} Results and findings from a focus group study with school teachers and local civil defence staff in 2011 and a nationally representative survey of schools in 2012 were analyzed to identify intervening, facilitating and deterrent factors of uptake and use of the resource.

Findings

{\textendash} The main intervening factors between resource promotion and school teachers{\textquoteright} awareness of the resource are word of mouth among school teachers and teachers{\textquoteright} proactive lesson plan research. The strongest facilitating factor was school-wide use of the resource. Lack of awareness of the resource and the perceived need for teacher training are the greatest deterrents to use of the resource.

Practical implications

{\textendash} Based on the findings, several recommendations are provided for increasing use of the resource including use of web-based technology for teacher training, integration of disaster preparedness messaging into other children{\textquoteright}s programs, ongoing evaluation and curriculum requirements.

Originality/value

{\textendash} An evaluation of the implementation of\ What{\textquoteright}s the Plan, Stan?\ adds to the limited body of knowledge on the benefits and challenges to distributing a voluntary teaching resource as a national strategy for curriculum integration of disaster education. The findings and lessons are relevant for nations meeting the Core Indicators of progress toward the 2005-2015 Hyogo Framework For Action.
}, doi = { http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/DPM-09-2013-0151}, url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/DPM-09-2013-0151}, author = {Vicki Johnson and David Johnston and Robin Peace and Kevin Ronan} } @article {BF-4329, title = {Integrated economic assessment of fire risk management strategies: Case studies in Central Otago, New Zealand, and Mount Lofty Region, South Australia}, year = {2014}, month = {24/02/2014}, abstract = {There are various options available to fire managers for strategically reducing losses from future fires. With limited funds, an increasing population to protect from fire, and an increasing tendency for people to live in fire-prone areas, fire managers face a significant resource allocation challenge. Knowing which fire-risk mitigation strategies provide the best value for money is potentially of great benefit. However the assessment of fire prevention strategies is complex, requiring integration of a large volume of information of various different types (technical, social, economic). The aim of this study is to provide insights into the question of which fire-prevention strategies provide the best value for money? The approach taken in this analysis was inspired by INFFER (the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources), particularly by its application to the Gippsland Lakes. The management problem addressed in that study was similarly complex as the fire management problem. It was addressed using a quantitative analysis that integrated information about risk, management, costs, and values, in a spatial context, with high levels of stakeholder consultation. A broadly similar approach is applied in this study. We present a quantitative decision framework to provide an integrated assessment of the benefits and costs of fire risk management strategies. Key findings from the project follow below. It is important to remember that these are specific pilot studies (and hence the outcomes relate to the two study areas and the scope of the analyses conducted). Generalisations about prescribed burning for other areas and circumstances should not be drawn from these studies. This project shows that the methodology works and can provide valuable decision-making inputs to fire management programs. Various fire risk management strategies have potential to generate benefits, but they should be applied in a targeted way. This was particularly the case for prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty region study (South Australia), where a general prescribed burning strategy across all sub-regions does not provide value for money but prescribed burning in targeted sub-regions does. Some strategies have particularly high costs and these are unlikely to provide value for money unless they can generate exceptional levels of fire prevention. The high cost usually occurred because strategies required actions over a large area and therefore incurred costs over a large area. Benefits from reductions in fire spread from one zone to another were relatively low in both case studies. The majority of benefits were generated from strategies that were applied within or close to the valuable assets. Although information about fire spread was relatively weak, results were not sensitive to changes in the assumptions about spread within a plus/minus 50 per cent range. On average, benefits from reducing asset losses are much larger than benefits from reducing suppression costs. The most severe fires tend to cause the majority of losses, even after allowing for the fact that the most severe fires are rare events. This means that the majority of benefits from fire management occur in rare events. In between those rare events, strategies that offer good value for money on a long-term probabilistic basis may have costs in excess of benefits in most years. The quantity and quality of available data was low for a number of key parameters. Some information was not collected, and some was not in an easily interpretable format. In both case studies (Mt Lofty Ranges, South Australia and Central Otago, New Zealand) the model results were found to be sensitive to several variables about which uncertainty was high. These provide a potential focus for future data collection.}, author = {Fiona L Gibson and David J Pannell} } @article {14, title = {Integrated economic assessment of fire risk management strategies: Case studies in Central Otago, New Zealand, and Mount Lofty Region, South Australia}, volume = {44}, year = {2014}, month = {24/02/2014}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Melbourne, Australia}, abstract = {

There are various options available to fire managers for strategically reducing losses from future fires. With limited funds, an increasing population to protect from fire, and an increasing tendency for people to live in fire-prone areas, fire managers face a significant resource allocation challenge. Knowing which fire-risk mitigation strategies provide the best value for money is potentially of great benefit. However the assessment of fire prevention strategies is complex, requiring integration of a large volume of information of various different types (technical, social, economic).

The aim of this study is to provide insights into the question of which fire-prevention strategies provide the best value for money? The approach taken in this analysis was inspired by INFFER (the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources), particularly by its application to the Gippsland Lakes. The management problem addressed in that study was similarly complex as the fire management problem. It was addressed using a quantitative analysis that integrated information about risk, management, costs, and values, in a spatial context, with high levels of stakeholder consultation. A broadly similar approach is applied in this study. We present a quantitative decision framework to provide an integrated assessment of the benefits and costs of fire risk management strategies.

Key findings from the project follow below. It is important to remember that these are specific pilot studies (and hence the outcomes relate to the two study areas and the scope of the analyses conducted). Generalisations about prescribed burning for other areas and circumstances should not be drawn from these studies. This project shows that the methodology works and can provide valuable decision-making inputs to fire management programs.

Various fire risk management strategies have potential to generate benefits, but they should be applied in a targeted way. This was particularly the case for prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty region study (South Australia), where a general prescribed burning strategy across all sub-regions does not provide value for money but prescribed burning in targeted sub-regions does.

Some strategies have particularly high costs and these are unlikely to provide value for money unless they can generate exceptional levels of fire prevention. The high cost usually occurred because strategies required actions over a large area and therefore incurred costs over a large area.

Benefits from reductions in fire spread from one zone to another were relatively low in both case studies. The majority of benefits were generated from strategies that were applied within or close to the valuable assets. Although information about fire spread was relatively weak, results were not sensitive to changes in the assumptions about spread within a plus/minus 50 per cent range.

On average, benefits from reducing asset losses are much larger than benefits from reducing suppression costs.

The most severe fires tend to cause the majority of losses, even after allowing for the fact that the most severe fires are rare events. This means that the majority of benefits from fire management occur in rare events. In between those rare events, strategies that offer good value for money on a long-term probabilistic basis may have costs in excess of benefits in most years.

The quantity and quality of available data was low for a number of key parameters. Some information was not collected, and some was not in an easily interpretable format.

In both case studies (Mt Lofty Ranges, South Australia and Central Otago, New Zealand) the model results were found to be sensitive to several variables about which uncertainty was high. These provide a potential focus for future data collection.

}, keywords = {fire management, risk management}, isbn = {978 - 0 - 9875218 - 6 - 6}, author = {David J Pannell and Fiona L Gibson} } @article {bnh-3473, title = {Interactive Hazards Education Program for Youth in a Low SES Community: A Quasi-Experimental Pilot Study}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, year = {2014}, month = {06/2014}, pages = {1882-1893}, chapter = {1882}, abstract = {

A pilot study of an interactive hazards education program was carried out in Canberra (Australia), with direct input from youth participants. Effects were evaluated in relation to youths{\textquoteright} interest in disasters, motivation to prepare, risk awareness, knowledge indicators, perceived preparedness levels, planning and practice for emergencies, and fear and anxiety indicators. Parents also provided ratings, including of actual home-based preparedness activities. Using a single group pretest-posttest with benchmarking design, a sample of 20 youths and their parents from a low SES community participated. Findings indicated beneficial changes on a number of indicators. Preparedness indicators increased significantly from pre- to posttest on both youth (p\ \< 0.01) and parent ratings (p\ \< 0.01). Parent ratings reflected an increase of just under six home-based preparedness activities. Youth knowledge about disaster mitigation also was seen to increase significantly (p\ \< 0.001), increasing 39\% from pretest levels. While personalized risk perceptions significantly increased (p\ \< 0.01), anxiety and worry levels were seen either not to change (generalized anxiety,\ p\ \> 0.05) or to reduce between pre- and posttest (hazards-specific fears, worry, and distress,\ ps ranged from\ p\ \< 0.05 to \< 0.001). In terms of predictors of preparedness, a number of variables were found to predict posttest preparedness levels, including information searching done by participants between education sessions. These pilot findings are the first to reflect quasi-experimental outcomes for a youth hazards education program carried out in a setting other than a school that focused on a sample of youth from a low SES community.

}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12217}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12217/abstract}, author = {Webb, M and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-1350, title = {Investigating the activation of community fire units in the Blue Mountains during the October 2013 bushfires}, year = {2014}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Fire \& Rescue NSW (FRNSW) and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) engaged Risk Frontiers to examine the effectiveness of Community Fire Units (CFUs) activated in the Blue Mountains, NSW during the period of heightened bushfire activity from 17 to 23 October 2013. Four focus groups, one interview and an online survey were utilised in order to explore 1) the activities undertaken and their impact on damage reduction and 2) the effectiveness of the equipment and training provided to CFU members.

Fieldwork was conducted between December 2013 and February 2014. The questionnaire was completed by 328 CFU members, giving a response rate of 32.5\%. The predominant respondents were men, aged 55{\textendash}64 years, working full-time, living in their own home as a couple without dependents and working more than 20 km from their home. A total of six CFUs were included in the focus groups and interview, with a total of 22 men and three women in attendance. All four focus groups and the interview were digitally recorded and professionally transcribed. Salient themes in the qualitative data were coded according to the specific aims of the research. Quotes are provided where possible in order for the respondent{\textquoteright}s voices to be heard.

The conclusions and findings section summarises the most salient points emerging from the quantitative and qualitative results in relation to the aims and objectives of the research. These findings are provided for FRNSW to consider in the context of their CFU program.

The main findings include:

}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Deanne Bird} } @article {bnh-1520, title = {Literature Review on Decision Support Systems for Optimising Long-term Natural Hazard Mitigation Policy and Project Portfolios}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

In this report, literature pertinent to the development of natural hazard mitigation decision support systems is reviewed across four areas:

1. Evidence for the increased frequency of natural hazards and the benefits of mitigation are reviewed.\ \ 

2. Mitigation planning is reviewed, with the presentation of mitigation planning frameworks and classifications of mitigation options.

3. The decision support system (DSS) literature is surveyed to understand current research thrusts in this field.\ \ 

4. The development of emergency management DSSs since the early 1980s is surveyed, with a particular focus on DSSs for mitigation.\ 

Consequently, this report concludes that the development of decision support systems that (i) use state of the art methodologies, (ii) incorporate the use of optimisation within a multihazard approach, (iii) consider changes in climate, demographics, land use and economics, and (iv) assess land-use related mitigation measures in addition to structural and management measures, is both important and novel.

}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Holger Maier and Hedwig van Delden and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Graeme Riddell and Charles Newland} } @article {bnh-1360, title = {National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year two report}, number = {008}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings in Australia currently rely heavily on McArthur{\textquoteright}s indices for forests and grasslands. Advances in fire and in meteorological science means that these indices do not adequately reflect current knowledge or recent technological advances. We now have the capability to provide information on fire danger at a much greater spatial and temporal resolution than previously, but do not fully utilise it. The indices are used for a wider range of purposes than originally envisaged, and growing societal expectations and changes in communication technology provide both the impetus and opportunity for a more detailed and more accurate service.

This is the final report for year two of this research project.

}, author = {Trent Penman and Bedward, M. and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-2605, title = {Negotiating risk and responsibility through law, policy and planning}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {29}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, abstract = {

The 2011 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (COAG 2011) sets the context for natural disaster management as a {\textquoteleft}shared responsibility{\textquoteright} of all sectors of government and society, as part of building a more comprehensive approach to emergency management. However, it remains difficult to change relationships and practices to share responsibility, either between emergency management agencies and other government sectors, or between governments and at-risk communities. This paper reports on the research of three independent but complementary projects established through the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre to identify the legal, policy and planning structures and processes that could enhance integration of emergency management imperatives across public policy sectors, agencies and portfolios. This article distils and summarises some key conclusions regarding a central, yet seriously under-acknowledged facet, of developing public policy for natural hazard risk in Australia: the political and social negotiation of risk and responsibility. This is an overview paper and many of the issues raised require further exploration.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-29-03-07}, author = {Jessica Weir and Michael Eburn and John Handmer and Barbara Norman and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-4376, title = {Northern Fire Mapping: Developing Robust Fire Extent and Severity Mapping Products for the Tropical Savannas Final Report}, year = {2014}, month = {03/2013}, abstract = {This final report summarises the activities and deliverables undertaken and provided since the commencement of the project in September 2010. The project staff have been with the project for its entirety including Researcher Dr Andrew Edwards and Project Leaders Drs Jeremy Russell-Smith and Mick Meyer. The project has been a major success. Key support to the project came from Bushfires NT staff and Research colleagues, the indigenous ranger groups and conservation and fire agencies, and Bushfire CRC administrative staff. Core risk management components of the project are to receive ongoing funding in the new Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC program. The main theme of the project was to develop fire severity mapping for application to fire management in the tropical savannas and rangelands, and to then apply these data to ecological-risk assessments including greenhouse gas emissions, tree carbon sequestration, biodiversity and erosion. Both activities were successful with fire severity mapping displayed for scrutiny on the North Australia Fire Information website, and a seminal paper outlining the ecological analyses and results soon to be submitted for publication.}, isbn = {978-0-9875218-4-2}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-3468, title = {Observations of meteorological tsunamis along the south-west Australian coast}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {74}, year = {2014}, month = {10/2014}, pages = {281-303}, chapter = {281}, abstract = {

Tide gauge data were used to identify the occurrence, characteristics, and cause of tsunamis of meteorological origin (termed {\textquoteright}meteotsunamis{\textquoteright}) along the Western Australian coast. This is the first study to identify meteotsunamis in this region, and the results indicated that they occur frequently. Although meteotsunamis are not catastrophic to the extent of major seismically induced basin-scale events, the wave heights of meteotsunamis examined at some local stations in this study were higher than those recorded through seismic tsunamis. In June 2012, a meteotsunami contributed to an extreme water-level event at Fremantle, which recorded the highest water level in over 115 years. Meteotsunamis (wave heights \> 0.4 m, when the mean tidal range in the region is similar to 0.5 m) were found to coincide with thunderstorms in summer and the passage of low-pressure systems during winter. Spectral analysis of tide gauge time series records showed that existing continental seiche oscillations (periods between 30 min and 5 h) were enhanced during the meteotsunamis, with a high proportion of energy transferred to the continental shelf oscillation period. Three recent meteotsunami events (22 March 2010, 10 June 2012, and 7 January 2013) two due to summer thunderstorms and one due to a winter frontal system were chosen for detailed analysis. The meteotsunami amplitudes were up to a factor 2 larger than the local tidal range and sometimes contributed up to 85 \% of the non-tidal water signal. A single meteorological event was found to generate several meteotsunamis along the coast, up to 500 km apart, as the air pressure disturbance propagated over the continental shelf; however, the topography and local bathymetry of the continental shelf defined the local sea-level resonance characteristics at each location. With the available data (sea level and meteorological), the exact mechanisms for the generation of the meteotsunamis could not be isolated.

}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-014-1263-8}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11069-014-1263-8}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and E.M.S Wijeratne} } @article {bnh-1745, title = {Predictors of south-eastern Australian householders{\textquoteright} strengths of intentions to self-evacuate if a wildfire threatens: two theoretical models}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {23}, year = {2014}, month = {11/11/2014}, pages = {1176-1188}, chapter = {1176}, abstract = {

Householder evacuation in the face of a wildfire threat is the survival option advocated by fire agencies. However, late evacuation is common and has resulted in loss of life. The primary aim of this study was to investigate potential predictors of householders{\textquoteright} strength of intention to leave early in response to a bushfire threat warning. A survey of 584 residents of bushfire-prone locations in south-eastern Australia was conducted. Theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and protection motivation theory (PMT) were used to explore predictors of strength of householders{\textquoteright} intentions to leave, or to stay and defend following a bushfire warning. TPB was a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave, but PMT was not such a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave. Householder efficacy and self-characterisation were important contributors, whereas perceptions of severity and susceptibility to threat were not found to be significant contributors. Neither model performed well in predicting strength of intention to stay and defend. The findings are discussed in relation to community wildfire safety research and practice.

}, keywords = {Natural hazards, stay or go policy}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13219}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF13219}, author = {Jim McLennan and Sean Cowlishaw and Paton, Douglas and Beatson, Ruth and Elliott, Glenn} } @article {bnh-1570, title = {The Problem Solution Framework}, year = {2014}, month = {01/2015}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-1746, title = {Psychological differences between south-eastern Australian householders{\textquoteright} who intend to leave if threatened by a wildfire and those who intend to stay and defend}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {11}, year = {2014}, month = {29/11/2014}, pages = {35-46}, chapter = {35}, abstract = {

Disastrous wildfires have occurred often in south-eastern Australia. Following multi-fatality wildfires in Victoria on 7 February 2009 the national approach to community wildfire safety, {\textquoteleft}Prepare, stay and defend or leave early{\textquoteright}, came under intense critical scrutiny. The approach was revised subsequently so as to emphasise leaving as the safest option in the event of a wildfire warning. This study reports findings from a survey of 584 residents of at-risk locations. The majority (47\%) reported that they intended to leave if warned of a bushfire threat. However, a substantial minority (24\%) reported that they intended to stay and defend their home. A further 29\% reported that they intended to wait and see what developed before making a final decision. Those intending to leave differed from those intending to stay and defend in several ways. Those intending to leave were characterised generally by being more concerned about the danger posed by bushfires, they viewed themselves as more vulnerable to bushfire threat and they were worried about their house being destroyed in their absence. Those intending to stay and defend were motivated, mostly, to protect their valued property and they believed that their efforts would be successful. They did not perceive themselves to be risk takers. Those intending to leave generally reported rather low levels of preparations for leaving safely. An appreciable percentage of those intending to stay and defend reported levels of preparations for safe defence which were probably inadequate for safe and effective defence.

}, keywords = {Bushfire; Community safety; Evacuation; Property defence}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.11.008}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914001162}, author = {Jim McLennan and Paton, Douglas and Beatson, Ruth} } @article {BF-4308, title = {Putting {\textquoteleft}it{\textquoteright} together: mapping the narratives of bushfire and place in two Australian landscapes - final report for the Social construction of fuels in the interface 2 project}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, abstract = {The landscape means different things to different people and these {\textquoteleft}social constructions{\textquoteright} strongly influence what people value in landscapes and how they think about management. Community landscape values may not always correspond with the assets that fire management agencies prioritise for protection. This pilot research project aimed to (1) understand the underlying social and ecological values people associate with the landscape, and (2) investigate how understanding the interface between scientific-ecological and local-intuitive knowledge can contribute to fire management. Taking a {\textquotedblleft}place-mapping{\textquotedblright} approach, we interviewed residents in two contrasting Australian landscapes {\textendash} the Adelaide Hills and the Southern Grampians. Research participants were asked to {\textquoteleft}mud map{\textquoteright} their social and ecological landscapes at local and regional scales. Key findings from the research were: There is little evidence of an {\textquoteleft}information deficit{\textquoteright} about the risk of bushfire among residents. Many however expect to be taken surprised by fire (local ignition, low risk day) and therefore construct multiple fire plans to suit multiple scenarios. Home-making practices (gardening, planting indigenous species, walking the landscape creating a home-territory) extend the sense of {\textquotedblleft}home{\textquotedblright} into the landscape. Being at home during a fire is therefore about protecting values greater than the house. There is however a tension between homeowner responsibility for mitigation before a fire and lack of control during a fire. The ways people order and prioritise their memory of fire is important. Memory may be a forward construct that helps people deal with future risk. Mapping as a method seems to trigger a memory response that helps people connect intuitive and rational ways of knowing about fire; they connect their social and ecological (biophysical) worlds in this process. These findings should assist managers to assess the fire safety message and the findings support and create new ways to engage with local communities. }, author = {Ruth Beilin and Karen Reid} } @article {bnh-2776, title = {Recovery and Resettlement following the 2011 flash flooding in Lockyer Valley}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,}, volume = {8}, year = {2014}, chapter = {20}, author = {Tetsuya Okada and Katharine Haynes and Deanne Bird and Robin van den Honert and David King} } @article {bnh-1639, title = {Risk Management from a Legal and Governance Perspective}, journal = {Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management}, volume = {4}, year = {2014}, month = {12/09/2014}, pages = {61-72}, chapter = {61}, abstract = {
Risk management is seen as the key to living with potentially catastrophic hazards, but the language of disaster risk management carries with it the implication that all risks can in fact be managed. This implies that if there is an adverse outcome, even accepting an inherent residual risk, there must have been a failure by those responsible. The concept of risk management raises the further risk of being blamed for failing to meet community expectations and that risk, too, needs to be managed. Power says:
{\textellipsis} experts who are being made increasingly accountable for what they do are now becoming more preoccupied with managing their own risks. Specifically, secondary risks to their reputation are becoming as significant as the primary risks for which experts have knowledge and training. (Power, M., The Risk Management of Everything (Demos, London 2004) 14).
The ultimate expression of the secondary risk came with the conviction of six Italian scientists for manslaughter, over their failure to issue appropriate warnings regarding the risk of the 2009 L{\textquoteright}Aquila earthquake.
This paper looks at the question of risk management from a legal and governance perspective. Drawing on developments in law and policy from Australia and around the world, this paper will explore whether disaster risk management is moving from reducing the risk to communities to reducing the risk to governments and emergency managers. Legal and policy reforms that may help to refocus disaster risk management to those vulnerable to hazards, rather than vulnerable to blame, will be identified.

}, keywords = {governance, law, risk management}, issn = {2185-8322}, doi = {10.5595/idrim.2014.0076}, url = {http://idrimjournal.com/index.php/idrim/article/view/76}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-1451, title = {Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning Scenario Exercise Lit Review}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, abstract = {

The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP)\ project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its
contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning.


The RMPP project draws on human geography, political science, legal studies and science,\ technology and society studies, to investigate how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries\ and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire\ and flood risk. It will use qualitative social science methods including scenario exercises,\ theoretical tools and case studies, to analyse how diverse knowledges are ordered and judged as\ salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency\ management across the PPRR spectrum.

This research report outlines how scenario exercises may be used for understanding risk mitigation\ decision-making, as scenario exercises will inform a core component of the RMPP project. The\ report outlines what scenario exercise are, why they are used, and how they can be used to\ achieve the aims of the RMPP project. The focus is on environmental scenarios: that is, scenarios\ about environmental challenges. Literature about scenarios for other purposes, such as business\ and strategy, are included where appropriate.

}, issn = {002}, author = {Josh Wodak} } @conference {bnh-1890, title = {Seismic Performance of Typical C-Shaped Reinforced Concrete Shear Cores in Australia}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference 2014}, year = {2014}, abstract = {

Limited-ductile reinforced concrete structures have been known to perform poorly when subjected to large seismic ground motions. Many buildings in Australia rely on reinforced concrete shear-cores as their primary lateral load resiting system, but these are only required to have a low standard of detailing as per the current concrete material standards AS 3600. While there is some literature available on the numerical and analytical modelling of rectangular shaped shear walls, non-rectangular shear walls have not been extensively analysed. {\textquotedblleft}C-shaped{\textquotedblright} shear walls are commonly found enclosing a service core, lifts, stairs and toilets. This paper presents a study which looks at the seismic performance of C-shaped shear walls with different steel reinforcement ratios for low, mid and high-rise buildings. The current earthquake actions code AS 1170.4 has been used for a preliminary design of the walls using a force-based design approach within which the intention is to satisfy the performance objective of life safety in a 500 year return period earthquake design level event in Melbourne. The displacement capacity of these different core walls has been calculated using a Displacement-Based Assessment procedure and complemented with finite element modelling program SeismoStruct. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the AUS5 recurrence model that has been conducted for the city of Melbourne has been used to calculate more accurate predictions of the displacement response spectra for 500 and 2500-year return periods. The C-shaped core walls have then been assessed by comparing the displacement capacity at different structural performance limit states to the displacement spectra derived from the current earthquake loading code AS 1170.4 and the spectra results from the PSHA for both the 500 and 2500-year return periods and for soil classes Be and De.

}, keywords = {AUS5, Australia, capacity, concrete, Core, displacement-based, earthquake, limited-ductile, low-to-moderate, PSHA, seismicity, spectra, unconfined, Walls}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {BF-4290, title = {Sharing Responsibility in Australian Disaster Management - Final Report for the Sharing Responsibility Project}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, abstract = {

The Sharing responsibility project sought to open up a process of critical and reflective examination of the widely supported principle of Shared Responsibility in Australian disaster management with a focus on its meaning, significance and challenges for the way that governments and citizens work together to manage disaster risk. The ultimate aim of the project was to support stakeholders of Australian disaster management to make decisions about how to pursue a vision of Shared Responsibility.

}, author = {John Handmer} } @inbook {bnh-2360, title = {Sink or Swim: alternative approaches to flood disaster reconstruction and mitigation}, booktitle = {River Basin Management in the Twenty-First Century: understanding people and place}, year = {2014}, pages = {pp. 418-445}, publisher = {RC Press}, organization = {RC Press}, address = {Boca Raton, Florida}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {bnh-1836, title = {Sleeping at work: not all about location, location, location}, journal = {Sleep Medicine Reviews}, volume = {19}, year = {2014}, month = {05/2014}, pages = {59-66}, chapter = {59}, abstract = {

Working arrangements in industries that use non-standard hours sometimes necessitate an {\textquoteleft}onsite{\textquoteright} workforce where workers sleep in accommodation within or adjacent to the workplace. Of particular relevance to these workers is the widely held (and largely anecdotal) assumption that sleep at home is better than sleep away, particularly when away for work. This narrative review explores the idea that sleep outcomes in these unique work situations are the product of an interaction between numerous factors including timing and duration of breaks, commute length, sleeping environment (noise, movement, vibration, light), circadian phase, demographic factors and familiarity with the sleep location. Based on the data presented in this review, it is our contention that the location of sleep, whilst important, is secondary to other factors such as the timing and duration of sleep periods. We suggest that future research should include measures that allow conceptualisation of other critical factors such as familiarity with the sleeping environment.

}, keywords = {Mobile workplaces, Non-residential workforce, Shift work, Sleep, Sleep environment, Sleep loss, Work rest facilities}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smrv.2014.04.003}, url = {http://www.smrv-journal.com/article/S1087-0792(14)00044-6/abstract}, author = {Sarah M Jay and Brad Aisbett and Sprajcer, M. and Sally Ferguson} } @article {bnh-5180, title = {Societal influences on earthquake information meaning-making and household preparedness}, journal = {International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters}, volume = {32}, year = {2014}, month = {08/2014}, abstract = {

Previous research has identified a diversity of personal and individual factors that influence household preparedness for earthquakes. However, societal influences on the preparedness process are less well studied. In particular, there is limited understanding of the impact that wider society has on people{\textquoteright}s interpretation of earthquake and preparedness information, and how this relates to people{\textquoteright}s decisions about getting prepared for earthquakes. To address this gap, a New Zealand-based project was initiated to investigate how social factors interact with individuals{\textquoteright} meaning-making of earthquake information and how this affects subsequent earthquake preparedness behaviour. A range of social factors were identified as being influential on the meaningmaking and preparedness process, including community (community participation, sense of community); leadership; responsibility (responsibility for preparing, responsibility for others); social norms; trust; and societal requirements.

}, url = {http://www.ijmed.org/articles/659/}, author = {Julia Becker and Paton, Douglas and David Johnston and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3469, title = {Solving wicked problems linked to disasters, risk and uncertainty: Children are truly our future}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {29}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {8-9}, chapter = {8}, abstract = {

In public policy terms, disaster management across the Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery (PPRR) spectrum would qualify as a {\textquoteleft}wicked problem{\textquoteright} (Australian Public Policy Commission 2007). In {\textquoteleft}wicked problem{\textquoteright} terms, problems cannot be clearly defined nor do they have straightforward, simple cause-effect solutions. Rather, trying to solve one problem can invite others, including those that are unforeseen.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-29-01-04}, author = {Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-3470, title = {Systems Education for a Sustainable Planet: Preparing Children for Natural Disasters}, journal = {Systems}, volume = {2}, year = {2014}, month = {01/2014}, pages = {1-23}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

This paper first reviews research linked to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction focusing on {\textquotedblleft}child-centred disaster risk reduction{\textquotedblright} (CC-DRR), highlighting systemic aspects of disaster prevention and preparedness educational programming to date. However, it is also pointed out that education evaluated to date largely assumes a linear, mechanistic approach to preparedness and related resiliency outcomes. Thus, the main thrust of this paper is to elucidate means by which hazards and disaster preparedness education programs for children can shift to systems-based models, those that incorporate both systemic epistemologies but also more systems-based, and interconnected, curricula. This includes curricula that help children connect the physical world and science with the social world and human factors. It also includes the more systemic idea that natural hazards are but one example of a larger category of problems in life related to risk and uncertainty. Thus, a main aim of a systems educational approach is to help children equip themselves with knowledge, skills, motivation and confidence that they can increasingly manage a range of risks in life. This includes an increasing understanding of the added value that can be gained from approaching problems with systemic tools, including producing increasingly effective and sustainable solutions to what public policy refers to as wicked problems.

}, doi = {10.3390/systems2010001}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/2/1/1}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {BF-4377, title = {Testing the Effectiveness of Task Difficulty, Behaviour Interpretation, and Social Comparison Interventions on Bushfire Preparedness {\textendash} An Experimental Field Study}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Researchers at the University of Western Australia explored whether three different interventions had an effect on preparedness intentions at the start of the bushfire season and actual preparedness towards the end of the bushfire season for both property preparedness and psychological planning. These manipulations included A. asking residents of bushfire prone areas to focus on completing easy vs. difficult preparatory tasks first, B. influencing residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of how much they have done to prepare to date compared to others in Australia, and C. asking residents to interpret their level of bushfire preparedness to date in terms of commitment or progress towards the goal of being prepared. Results suggest that making residents focus on the three easiest tasks first leads to greater intentions to complete uncompleted planning tasks than focusing on the three most difficult tasks first, but it had no influence on actual preparedness by the end of the season. Results also showed that residents who thought about how much progress they had made towards the goal of being prepared showed lower intentions to engage in more tasks that prepare their properties than those who thought about how committed they were towards the goal of being prepared. However, thinking about their progress towards the goal of being prepared led residents to complete more psychological planning tasks than thinking about how committed they were.}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Huw Flatau Harrison and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {bnh-3450, title = {Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {5}, year = {2014}, month = {04/2014}, abstract = {

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms4635}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms4635}, author = {Ivan D. Haigh and Thomas Wahl and Eelco J. Rohling and Rene M. Price and Charitha Pattiaratchi and Fransisco M. Calafat and Sonke Dangendorf} } @proceedings {BF-4337, title = {Acknowledging structural variances of communities to aid in communicating risk information}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/acknowledging-structural-variances-communities-aid-communicating-risk-info}, author = {Sondra Dickinson} } @proceedings {BF-4343, title = {Applications of Very High Resolution Atmospheric Modelling for Bushfires}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/applications-very-high-resolution-atmospheric-modelling-bushfires}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Robert Fawcett and KJ Tory and W. Thurston} } @proceedings {BF-4350, title = {Are you ready? Ready for what? {\textendash} Examining intended fire responses and preparedness by residents of fire prone areas}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/are-you-ready-ready-what-\%E2\%80\%93-examining-intended-fire-responses-and-preparedn}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and T.C. Skinner and David Morrison} } @article {BF-4275, title = {Bushfires are {\textquotedblleft}men{\textquoteright}s business{\textquotedblright}: The importance of gender and rural hegemonic masculinity}, journal = {Journal of Rural Studies}, volume = {30}, year = {2013}, month = {04/2013}, pages = {110-119}, chapter = {110}, abstract = {This paper offers a critical review of the international literature on gender, disaster and rural masculinities. Empirical reference is made to bushfires in Australia, offering new evidence from the State of Victoria. Bushfires loom large in the Australian imagination and there is an increasing amount of research now being conducted in relation to bushfire events. A significant gap remains, however, with regard to the issue of gender. Despite increasing evidence that gender plays a significant role with reference to disaster risk assessment, preparation and response, a gendered analysis of bushfire preparation and response has not been a sustained research priority. Building on the writing of others, a critical assessment is provided of the concept of a specifically Australian, rural hegemonic masculinity as a possible way of better understanding the social dimensions of gender, and bushfire preparation and response in the Australian context. This conceptual consideration is extended to draw attention to the process whereby alternative conceptions of masculinities may emerge. This recognition provides a basis for further research on gender and disaster internationally.}, keywords = {Bushfire, Community Fireguard, Gender, Masculinity, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.01.002}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016713000041}, author = {Meagan Tyler and Peter Fairbrother} } @article {bnh-2361, title = {Climate change adaptation and floods: Australia{\textquoteright}s institutional arrangements}, year = {2013}, month = {2013}, institution = {National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility}, address = {Gold Coast}, isbn = {978-1-925039-92-4}, url = {https://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Wenger_2013_Case_study.pdf}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @article {BF-3950, title = {Community safety during the 2009 Australian {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires: an analysis of household preparedness and response}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2013}, month = {31/05/2013}, doi = {10.1071/WF12010}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF12010.htm}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and John Handmer and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-4282, title = {A comparison of the fire weather characteristics of the Melbourne dust storm (1983) and Black Saturday (2009): a high-resolution ACCESS case study}, journal = {20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {167-172}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {We present the results of high-resolution simulations of the fire weather over Melbourne during its notorious dust storm on 8 February 1983. The simulations were performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involved a sequence of nested model runs starting with a global model run initialised with an ERA-Interim reanalysis initial condition. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than those currently used operationally. The day of the dust storm saw the passage of a significant cool change across Victoria, with many similarities in the simulations to that of Black Saturday (7 February 2009), against which we compare it. Wind changes such as these two can have a significant (and dangerous) impact on the behaviour of bushfires in southeast Australia, and their prediction forms an important component of fire weather prediction in this part of the country. While the wind change on 8 February 1983 was accompanied by some fire activity, that activity was much less than the major fire activity which accompanied the significant wind change eight days later on Ash Wednesday (16 February 1983). Why the dust storm wind change was not associated with severe fires, while those on Ash Wednesday and Black Saturday were, is a challenging question. Catastrophic fires are quite rare, whereas significant fire weather events that could potentially lead to catastrophic fires (if the non-meteorological prerequisites were to fall into place) are much more common and their study can lead to further understanding of the fire events.}, keywords = {Ash Wednesday, Black Saturday, Fire weather, Melbourne{\textquoteright}s dust storm, numerical weather prediction}, url = {http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/fawcett.pdf}, author = {Robert Fawcett and Alan Wain and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory} } @article {BF-4276, title = {Creating {\textquotedblleft}Community{\textquotedblright}? Preparing for Bushfire in Rural Victoria}, journal = {Rural Sociology}, volume = {78}, year = {2013}, month = {02/2013}, pages = {186-209}, chapter = {186}, abstract = {The term {\textquotedblleft}community{\textquotedblright} has a long and contested lineage in social analysis and debate. This lineage, however, is not generally recognized in policy and public debates on community and bushfire in Australia. {\textquotedblleft}Community{\textquotedblright} is thought to be central to bushfire preparedness in Australia, especially in rural areas, but what {\textquotedblleft}community{\textquotedblright} actually means in this context is vague at best. There is an ever-present tension between the use of {\textquotedblleft}community{\textquotedblright} as a reference to locality, a {\textquotedblleft}sense of community{\textquotedblright} as experienced by residents, and the use of {\textquotedblleft}community{\textquotedblright} as a rhetorical tool by governments and state agencies. We argue that a rigorous analysis of the concept of {\textquotedblleft}community{\textquotedblright} is critical to an understanding of the processes involved in preparing for the challenges associated with disaster, in this case bushfires. These broader issues are supported by research (a series of surveys, interviews, and focus groups) carried out with residents living in (predominantly rural) bushfire-prone areas in the state of Victoria, Australia. Ultimately, we assert that social participation and social networks are likely to be the crucial aspects of community that play a central role in effective bushfire preparedness.}, doi = {10.1111/ruso.12006}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ruso.12006/abstract}, author = {Peter Fairbrother and Meagan Tyler and Alison Hart and Bernard Mees and Richard Philips and Julie Stratford and Keith Toh} } @article {BF-3749, title = {A critical review of the science underpinning fire management in the high altitude ecosystems of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, year = {2013}, month = {1/2013}, abstract = {We reviewed the scope and quality of published literature relevant to management of the risk of fire and accompanying risks to ecological values, in the vegetation types (mostly forests and woodlands, but including grasslands and herbfields) of the High Country (>750m asl) of south-eastern Australia. Our analysis of quality suggests the published science has improved markedly over the past 60years. That said, there is insufficient data on any subject for a formal meta-analysis. Much of the work published in the past may not pass peer-review today and there are few on-going, long-term studies of the effects of management of a standard that might meet this test. Given the limited number of recent studies of higher quality, this raises the question as to an acceptable standard of evidence for policy making for future management of native ecosystems. With the exception of grassland, feldmark and herbfield types, available data shows that all High Country vegetation types produce fuel loads >10tha-1 in less than 10years after fire, notwithstanding the different fire risk associated with each fuel type (e.g. grasses vs woody shrubs vs forest litter), suggesting that fuel management will continue to be an issue for land managers. The varied and inconsistent history of past land management makes the interpretation of short-term studies difficult. Highlights of past research include the detailed studies of Costin and co-workers that were exemplary for their time in their use of replicated treatments, adequate controls and significant periods of study (4+ year). Recent studies of effects of fire on water yield and quality that are based on well-replicated studies, again over substantial periods of time, are helping fill knowledge gaps. Many other ecological topics of interest to land managers remain poorly understood, including: long-term vegetation and fuel dynamics, nutrient balance, weed invasions and further aspects of hydrology. If high altitude catchments are to be managed effectively, we must improve our understanding the dynamics of fuel loads, vegetation, nutrients and water supply through collection of long-term quantitative data. }, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.042}, author = {Adams, Mark A. and Cunningham, Shaun C. and Taranto, MT} } @article {BF-3748, title = {A day in the life of a volunteer incident commander: Errors, pressures and mitigating strategies}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {44}, year = {2013}, month = {5/2013}, pages = {488 - 495}, abstract = {To meet an identified gap in the literature this paper investigates the tasks that a volunteer incident commander needs to carry out during an incident, the errors that can be made and the way that errors are managed. In addition, pressure from goal seduction and situation aversion were also examined. Volunteer incident commanders participated in a two-part interview consisting of a critical decision method interview and discussions about a hierarchical task analysis constructed by the authors. A SHERPA analysis was conducted to further identify potential errors. The results identified the key tasks, errors with extreme risk, pressures from strong situations and mitigating strategies for errors and pressures. The errors and pressures provide a basic set of issues that need to be managed by both volunteer incident commanders and fire agencies. The mitigating strategies identified here suggest some ways that this can be done. }, issn = {00036870}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2012.10.011}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Peter A. Bremner} } @article {BF-4288, title = {Dead fuel moisture research: 1991{\textendash}2012}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, abstract = {The moisture content of dead fuels is an important determinant of many aspects of bushfire behaviour. Understanding the relationships of fuel moisture with weather, fuels and topography is useful for fire managers and models of fuel moisture are an integral component of fire behaviour models. This paper reviews research into dead fuel moisture for the period 1991{\textendash}2012. The first half of the paper deals with experimental investigation of fuel moisture including an overview of the physical processes that affect fuel moisture, laboratory measurements used to quantify these processes, and field measurements of the dependence of fuel moisture on weather, vegetation structure and topography. The second set of topics examine models of fuel moisture including empirical models derived from field measurements, process-based models of vapour exchange and fuel energy and water balance, and experimental testing of both types of models. Remaining knowledge gaps and future research problems are also discussed. Opportunities for exciting research in the future exist for basic fuel moisture processes, developing new methods for applying models to fire behaviour prediction, and linking fuel moisture and weather forecast models.}, keywords = {forest litter, fuel moisture content, model, review}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13005}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF13005.htm}, author = {Stuart Matthews} } @article {BF-4218, title = {Discussion paper synopsis: challenges for strategic emergency management}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Who is this paper for? This discussion paper is aimed at decision-makers, policy-developers and stakeholders who need to ensure that the strategic emergency management sector is able to meet future challenges which includes supporting communities to better prepare for, manage and recover well from emergency events. What is this paper about? The discussion paper has emerged from research undertaken through the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre examining what enables and constrains effective performance at the strategic level of emergency management. This synopsis contains the highlights. The full paper is available at http://www.bushfirecrc.com/publications/citation/bf-4217. Emergency events that are unprecedented in intensity and geographic spread and have significant impacts on communities are called {\textquotedblleft}out of scale events{\textquotedblright}. In major out-of-scale emergency events there are a range of emergency management activities performed by people working at operational, tactical and strategic emergency management levels. At an operational level, first responders are working directly on the front line of the fire or incident ground. At a tactical level local incident management teams work at supporting front line responders in containing and mitigating the event {\textendash} this includes enabling communities to make good decisions. At a strategic level (which may be regional state or national) there is a focus on two elements: oversight of incident management operations and consequence management for longer term recovery.}, author = {Owen, Christine and Karyn Bosomworth and Brooks, B} } @article {bnh-1803, title = {Economic Analysis of Bushfire Management Programs: A WA Perspective Report}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Bushfires can cause considerable damage to ecosystems, life and property. Protecting human and environmental assets is becoming more difficult as the wildland{\textendash}urban interface expands in Australia. Fire managers can plan for and manage bushfire events to a greater extent than other large natural disturbances such as cyclones and earthquakes. However, fire strategies that have sought to respond to the increasing bushfire threat with greater suppression capacity do not appear to solve the problem of catastrophic bushfires. Although suppression capacity and the use of technology in bushfire management have greatly increased, the frequency of disastrous fires appears to follow an increasing trend.

Improved understanding and comprehensive appraisals of bushfire costs and benefits are needed in order to devise fire mitigation and management programs that optimally allocate resources and express informed, evidence-based judgements about trade-offs between available options. The aim of this project is to provide a comprehensive economic evaluation of alternative fire management programs in Western Australia in order to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources for bushfire management.

In this paper we present our initial investigations into the application of the cost plus net value change (C+NVC) model to bushfire management programs in Western Australia.

}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-6-2}, author = {Veronique Florec and David J Pannell and Michael Burton and Joel Kelso and Andrew Mellor and George J. Milne} } @article {BF-4287, title = {The effect of patch area on birds in central Australian Mulga ({\textquoteright}acacia aneura{\textquoteright}) woodland of different times-since-fire}, journal = {Pacific Conservation Biology}, volume = {19}, year = {2013}, month = {03/2013}, pages = {28-38}, chapter = {28}, abstract = {It is often assumed that a fine-scaled mosaic of different times-since-fire supports greater biodiversity than a coarsescaled mosaic - the fire mosaic hypothesis. A potential mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis is the effect of area on species diversity. We investigated the effect of patch area on bird communities in mulga (Acacia aneura) woodland in central Australia. The study was conducted at Uluru Kata-Tjuta National Park using 55 fixed-area sites classified to the time since last fire: burnt 2002; burnt 1976 and long unburnt. Birds were surveyed in the winter and spring of 2005 and 2006. Of 20 key species, two showed a positive density-area effect (i.e. higher density in larger patches). Patch area did not affect total bird density or species richness. However, species turnover ( -diversity) was greater in large patches in the burnt 2002 treatment than it was in small patches. There was no effect of patch area on the composition of the bird communities in any of the time-since-fire classes. We concluded that patch area did affect the distribution of some birds in mulga woodland. However, patch area was not a mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis because the effects of patch size tended to increase avian diversity in larger patches rather than small.}, keywords = {Biodiversity conservation, Bird surveys, Landscape protection, Planning}, issn = {1038-2097}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=431001814188300;res=IELHSS}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-4272, title = {Environmental assessment of erosion following prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty Ranges, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, abstract = {Erosion following fire has the potential to affect water quality, alter soil profiles and detrimentally affect human infrastructure. There is a clear need for environmental assessments to have regard for erosion concerns from prescribed burning. This study focussed on 10 prescribed burns conducted in the Southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Generalised additive modelling was used to determine the main significant environmental variables influencing the presence of sediment movement at 505 field-assessed sites. Sediment movement after the 10 prescribed burns was minor. Fire severity was a highly significant environmental determinant for the presence of sediment movement after prescribed burning. To predict erosion concerns, a suite of environmental variables is more reliable than focusing solely on slope steepness, as occurred before this study. These results indicate that erosion assessments need to consider a range of environmental variables to assess potential erosion and that land managers and scientists need to incorporate spatial sampling designs into erosion assessments.}, keywords = {bioturbation, erosion assessment, fire severity, rainfall, sediment movement, slope, topography}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13011}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF13011.htm}, author = {Morris, Rowena and Ross Bradstock and Deirdre Dragovich and Henderson, M. K. and Trent Penman and Bertram Ostendorf} } @article {BF-4274, title = {Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901{\textendash}2011}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, year = {2013}, month = {11/2013}, pages = {1-12}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {This paper describes the development and analysis of a dataset covering bushfire related life loss in Australia over the past 110 years (1901{\textendash}2011). Over this time period 260 bushfires have been associated with a total of 825 known civilian and firefighter fatalities. This database was developed to provide an evidence base from which an Australian national fire danger rating system can be developed and has benefits in formalising our understanding of community exposure to bushfire. The database includes detail of the spatial, temporal and localised context in which the fatalities occurred. This paper presents the analysis of 674 civilian fatalities. The analysis has focused on characterising the relationship between fatal exposure location, weather conditions (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and drought indices), proximity to fuel, activities and decision making leading up to the death. The analysis demonstrates that civilian fatalities were dominated by several iconic bushfires that have occurred under very severe weather conditions. The fatalities from Australia{\textquoteright}s 10 worst bushfire days accounted for 64\% of all civilian fatalities. Over 50\% of all fatalities occurred on days where the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeded 100 (the current threshold for declaring a day as {\textquoteleft}catastrophic{\textquoteright}) proximal to the fatality. The dominant location category was open air representing 58\% of all fatalities followed by 28\% in structures, and 8\% in vehicles (6\% are unknown). For bushfires occurring under weather conditions exceeding an FFDI value of 100, fatalities within structures represented over 60\% of all fatalities. These were associated with people dying while attempting to shelter mainly in their place of residence. Of the fatalities that occurred inside a structure in a location that was specifically known, 41\% occurred in rooms with reduced visibility to the outside conditions. Over 78\% of all fatalities occurred within 30 m of the forest.}, keywords = {Fatalities, Policy, Warnings, Wildfire, WUI}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.09.013}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard and Katharine Haynes and Kimberley Opie and Melissa James and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira} } @article {BF-4286, title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {266}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, pages = {172-186}, chapter = {172}, abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.}, keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X}, author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @proceedings {BF-4339, title = {The Eyre Peninsula Fire of 11 January 2005: an ACCESS case study}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/eyre-peninsula-fire-11-january-2005-access-case-study}, author = {Robert Fawcett and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory} } @proceedings {BF-4360, title = {Fire authorities and planners: reducing risk across diverse landscapes}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/fire-authorities-and-planners-reducing-risk-across-diverse-landscapes}, author = {Jessica Weir} } @article {BF-3825, title = {Fire development in focus}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, year = {2013}, abstract = {All bushfires start small - how they progress to large fires that can impact on communities and cause wide-scale destruction is being studied by a team of Bushfire CRC researchers. Until now, the existing knowledge of fire behaviour and tools for prediction assumed steady-state spread of a fire. Understanding the chances of a fire occurring, as well as the likelihood of spot fires, is essential to understanding the behaviour of bushfires under all possible weather conditions.}, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Pages/AJEM28ONE/Firedevelopmentinfocus.aspx}, author = {Nathan Maddock} } @proceedings {BF-4356, title = {Fire weather of a Canterbury Northwester on 6 February 2011 in South Island, New Zealand}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/fire-weather-canterbury-northwester-6-february-2011-south-island-new-zeala}, author = {Colin Simpson and Andrew Sturman and Peyman Zawar-Reza and Grant Pearce} } @proceedings {BF-4353, title = {Fire-atmosphere coupled numerical simulations show a fire changes the local meteorology}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/fire-atmosphere-coupled-numerical-simulations-show-fire-changes-local-mete}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills} } @proceedings {BF-4346, title = {Firefighting the {\textquoteleft}Paradox of Place{\textquoteright} {\textendash} The Risks and Dilemmas Associated with Knowing the Place of Fire}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/firefighting-\%E2\%80\%98paradox-place\%E2\%80\%99-\%E2\%80\%93-risks-and-dilemmas-associated-knowing-place}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Ruth Beilin} } @article {BF-4279, title = {Gendered communication and public safety: Women, men and incident management}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management, The}, volume = {28}, year = {2013}, month = {04/2013}, pages = {3-10}, chapter = {3}, abstract = {Managing emergency events requires incident management teams to actively pool their ideas and concerns to resolve challenges, although this frequently does not occur. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative research methods, this paper explores whether gender may be an underlying factor. The quantitative findings indicate that women report different experiences of communication in incident management teams. In seeking to provide an account as to why this might be the case 24 qualitative interviews with incident management team members were examined. The findings reveal cultural challenges to team communication and specifically a masculinist culture (i.e. acting with high confidence and bravado). The legitimacy of these displays is contested by both men and women because of their negative impacts on team communication and co-operation. Strategies for overcoming the negative impacts of masculinist cultures and the role of leadership and training are discussed.}, keywords = {Ability Testing, Emergency management, Evaluation, Psychological aspects, Public safety, Public speaking, Social conditions, Women}, issn = {1324-1540}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=364034915486329;res=IELHSS}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @conference {bnh-1888, title = {Ground Motion Modelling and Response Spectra for Australian Earthquakes}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference 2013}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Due to the relatively low frequency of large earthquake events in Australia, and the\ inadequacy of recorded data, engineering seismologists commonly adapt ground motion\ prediction equations (GMPEs) developed from other regions with similar conditions to the\ Australian continent for the calculation of acceleration and displacement response. Recent\ improvements using high quality recorded data have given rise to Next Generation\ Attenuation (NGA) ground motion models. However, these NGA ground motion models\ show significant discrepancies with other ground motion prediction equations that have been\ developed and used in Australia, and these include the models that have helped establish the\ new Australian Earthquake Hazard Map. This paper presents a study which looks at the\ possibility of a very rare earthquake occurring at close proximity to the Sydney CBD. The\ suitability of use in Australia of the various available ground motion models is discussed, and\ some of these models are used to calculate the acceleration and displacement response\ spectra. There is a large discrepancy observed between the western North American derived\ NGAs and some of the other Australian GMPEs. The SHAKE2000 computer program was\ used to illustrate amplification of response at a soil site relative to that at a rock site. An\ NGA-West 2 model, that will be available in 2013, is also shown to illustrate improvements\ to the original 2008 NGA models.

}, keywords = {Australian earthquakes, ground motion prediction equations, intra-plate, Next generation attenuation, NGA-West 2, SHAKE2000}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Elisa Lumantarna and Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @article {BF-4277, title = {Householders{\textquoteright} safety-related decisions, plans, actions and outcomes during the 7 February 2009 Victorian (Australia) wildfires}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {61}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, pages = {175-184}, chapter = {175}, abstract = {This study examined decisions made by householders under wildfire threat. Data were obtained from interviews with survivors of severe wildfires in Victoria (Australia) on 7 February 2009 which killed 172 civilians and destroyed more than 2000 homes. Prior to this, Australian fire agency community wildfire safety policy was that residents should: {\textquoteleft}Prepare, stay and defend or leave early{\textquoteright}. Most of the 223 interviewees who stayed and defended did so because this was their wildfire safety plan, and they believed that they would be successful despite the predicted extreme fire danger weather. In 79\% of cases, defence was successful; for the remaining 21\% the house was destroyed and several lives were imperilled. Of the 216 who left for a safer location only 39\% said that this was their wildfire safety plan; for most, the action of leaving was triggered by realisation of the imminent threat posed by the fire; 36\% self-evacuated under hazardous conditions. The findings suggest that community wildfire safety programs should emphasize: (a) the risks associated with staying to defend a property; and (b) how householders should prepare in order to leave safely if a fire threatens.}, keywords = {Community wildfire safety, Decision making, Evacuation, Property defence, Risk perception, Wildfire survival}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2013.09.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037971121300146X}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary and J Whittaker} } @proceedings {BF-4333, title = {{\textquoteleft}How do Residents in Bushfire Prone Areas View the Bushfire Risk of their Local Area and their Homes?{\textquoteright}}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/how-do-residents-bushfire-prone-areas-view-bushfire-risk-their-local-area-}, author = {Brown, Douglas} } @article {BF-4256, title = {Hydro-geomorphic response models for burned areas and their applications in land management}, journal = {Progress in Physical Geography}, volume = {37}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {787 - 812}, issn = {0309-1333}, doi = {10.1177/0309133313508802}, author = {Petter Nyman and Gary J. Sheridan and Lane, Patrick N. J.} } @article {BF-3750, title = {An integrated optimization model for fuel management and fire suppression preparedness planning}, journal = {Annals of Operations Research}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Fuel management and suppression preparedness planning are elements of forest fire management that are strongly interrelated with one another. Despite this interrelation, previous forest fire management optimization models have tended to consider these components in isolation from one another. Here we present an integer programming model that incorporates both fuel management and suppression preparedness decisions, thus providing an integrated planning framework. A series of hypothetical test landscapes are used to demonstrate the model{\textquoteright}s functionality with easily interpretable results. A number of possible extensions to the model formulation are also discussed.}, issn = {0254-5330}, doi = {10.1007/s10479-012-1298-8}, author = {Minas, James P. and John Hearne and Martell, David} } @conference {BF-4221, title = {Large Eddy Simulation of Flow over a Backward Facing Step using Fire Dynamics Simulator}, booktitle = {The 14th Asian Congress of Fluid Mechanics}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Flow over a backward-facing step is a widely used benchmark case in the field of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). This paper presents the numerical simulation of backward-facing step using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), open source software CFD developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), US. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is the default mode of its operation. In this paper, the latest version, FDS 6, is used for the numerical simulation of turbulent flow over a backward-facing step. This recent version of FDS incorporates four different eddy viscosity models namely a Constant Coefficient Smagorinsky model, a Dynamic Smagorinsky model, Deardroff{\textquoteright}s and Vreman{\textquoteright}s Models. The principal objective of this paper is to compare these turbulence models with a proposed benchmark case. Moreover, these simulated results are compared with standard experimental results of Jovic and Driver to assess the accuracies of the various models. }, author = {Sarwar, M and Khalid Moinuddin and Graham Thorpe} } @conference {bnh-4115, title = {Large-eddy simulations of bushfire plumes in the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer}, booktitle = {20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Spot fires are a hazardous phenomenon which can lead to unpredictable fire behaviour and accelerated fire spread. Spot fires occur when firebrands are lofted into strong ambient winds and ignite new fires downwind. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this lofting and transport of firebrands can be responsible for the ignition of spot fires at large distances, up to tens of kilometres ahead of the fire front. A thorough knowledge of the potential for lofting from a fire is therefore desirable in order to accurately predict the fires rate of spread and coverage.

The extent to which firebrands are lofted and transported away from a fire is largely determined by both the intensity of the fire convective column and the strength of the ambient winds. Previous work on the response of fire plumes to background winds has principally relied on theoretical or highly idealised numerical models. Here we use high-resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations, performed with the UK Met Office Large-Eddy Model, to investigate the behaviour of bushfire plumes. We begin by simulating the dry, neutral atmospheric boundary layer for a range of wind speeds. Simulations are run to a quasi-steady state, ensuring that the flow displays realistic turbulence properties. Plumes are then produced by imposing a localised positive surface heat flux anomaly at the model surface. The sensitivity of the size, shape and intensity of the plume{\textquoteright}s updraft to the interaction between the plume and the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer is explored, with reference to the potential for spotting.

}, author = {W. Thurston and KJ Tory and Robert Fawcett and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {BF-4273, title = {Leaf growth and senescence rates of three pasture grasses and wheat}, journal = {Crop \& Pasture Science}, volume = {64}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, pages = {660-672}, chapter = {660}, abstract = {A glasshouse study was conducted under ideal conditions to determine leaf appearance, elongation, and senescence rates along with life span and leaf length characteristics of four grass species: wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), brown back wallaby grass (Rytidosperma duttonianum (Cashmore) Connor and Edgar), phalaris (Phalaris aquatica L.), and annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.). This study provided a comprehensive characterisation of leaf turnover rates for the entire life cycle of these grasses, some of which are poorly characterised. Importantly, leaf senescence rate has been captured in the same conditions as the other leaf rates of the life cycle. Leaf position proved to be a significant explanatory variable in each of the leaf turnover rates. The relationships between leaf position and the components of leaf turnover were most commonly represented by non-linear models. Further studies may be necessary to validate these statistical models to field situations. However, this information will be useful to calibrate the senescence algorithms of plant growth models in agricultural decision support tools, which may then be applied to simulation studies including the assessment of grass curing for planning activities such as resource allocation, wildfire suppression, and execution of prescribed burning programs by fire management agencies.}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/CP13178}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/CP13178.htm}, author = {Helen G Daily and Peter A Lane and Shaun N Lisson and Kerry L Bridle and Stuart AJ Anderson and Corkrey, Ross} } @conference {bnh-2362, title = {Living with floods: key lessons from four Australian flood reviews and similar reviews from the Netherlands, China and the USA}, booktitle = {53rd Floodplain Management Association Conference, Tweed Heads}, year = {2013}, month = {05/2013}, publisher = {Floodplain Management Association Conference}, organization = {Floodplain Management Association Conference}, address = {Tweed Heads, NSW}, author = {Caroline Wenger and Karen Hussey and James Pittock} } @proceedings {BF-4358, title = {Measuring forest carbon and fire emission from southern Eucalyptus forests: key findings and some lessons learnt}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/measuring-forest-carbon-and-fire-emission-southern-eucalyptus-forests-key-}, author = {Volkova, Liubov and Weston, Chris} } @proceedings {BF-4363, title = {Moving Beyond {\textquotedblleft}women are the problem{\textquotedblright}: How Can We Better Understand the Gendered Nature of Bushfire in Australia?}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/moving-beyond-\%E2\%80\%9Cwomen-are-problem\%E2\%80\%9D-how-can-we-better-understand-gendered-na}, author = {Meagan Tyler and Peter Fairbrother} } @article {BF-3488, title = {Muscle activation during the Pack Hike test and a critical wildfire fighting task}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {44}, year = {2013}, month = {2013}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to examine the muscle activation of six global muscles during the successful completion of the Pack Hike test (PHT) and compare this to muscle activations during a critical wildfire fighting task. In-field surface electromyography was recorded from eight male wildfire fighters during the PHT and the rakehoe task {\textendash} a critical wildfire suppression activity. All participants successfully completed the PHT within the 45-min time limit. No significant changes in peak muscle activation levels as well as no significant shifts in median frequency in the six muscle analysed were recorded during the 4.83-km hike. Significantly different peak muscle activation levels were recorded in four of the six muscles tested when the PHT was compared to the rakehoe task. These results suggest the PHT should not be administered in isolation and other tests that specifically challenge upper body muscle endurance should be incorporated into a battery that accurately assesses the job-specific fitness of wildfire fighters. Highlights ► Muscle activity during the Pack Hike test (PHT) and a critical wildfire suppression task were compared. ► No muscle fatigue was detected during the PHT. ► Different muscle activation patterns between the tasks were recorded. ► The PHT may not adequately challenge upper body muscular endurance.}, issn = {00036870}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2012.08.003}, author = {Kevin Netto and Cara Lord and Aaron Petersen and Spelt Janssen, James and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @proceedings {BF-4341, title = {National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base- Bringing together the best information for best decisions}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/national-fire-behaviour-knowledge-base-bringing-together-best-information-}, author = {J.S. Gould and Sullivan, Andrew and Cruz, Miguel G. and Rucinski, Chris and Prakash, Mahesh} } @article {BF-4285, title = {Network effects on learning during emergency events}, journal = {Knowledge Management Research \& Practice}, year = {2013}, month = {01/2013}, abstract = {Understanding the factors that enhance or impede learning of individuals is instrumental in achieving organizational performance goals. In this study, the effect of social network structures on the learning attitudes of emergency personnel during an emergency event was investigated. On the basis of a social influence model of learning, a theoretical framework has been proposed to investigate the effects of network structure on learning outcomes of bushfire incident management teams. To test our framework, we investigated social network data, which were extracted from the transcripts of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission report. Empirical results suggest that a network structure of emergency personnel can be identified, which plays a key role in the ability of those actors to engage in learning-related work activity, allowing them to adapt and improvise in complex emergency events. By presenting a model of learning-related work activity, based on a social network analysis of its structure, emergency staff members can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable.}, doi = {10.1057/kmrp.2012.65}, url = {http://www.palgrave-journals.com/kmrp/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/kmrp201265a.html}, author = {Jafar Hamra and Rolf Wigand and Liaquat Hossain and Owen, Christine} } @proceedings {BF-4365, title = {Politics, Policies and Paradigms: Challenges of Change in Future Emergency Management}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/politics-policies-and-paradigms-challenges-change-future-emergency-managem}, author = {Owen, Christine and Karyn Bosomworth and Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Fogarty, Liam and Geoff Conway} } @proceedings {BF-4331, title = {The Problems of Maintaining Effective Teamwork During Out-of-Scale Events}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/problems-maintaining-effective-teamwork-during-out-scale-events}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Owen, Christine and Brooks, B and Grunwald, J} } @article {BF-4281, title = {Quantifying spatio-temporal differences between fire shapes: Estimating fire travel paths for the improvement of dynamic spread models}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {46}, year = {2013}, month = {08/2013}, pages = {33-43}, chapter = {33}, abstract = {Dynamic fire spread models are a recent development in landscape management that provide for the simulation of the spread of fires through time under complex weather conditions. These allow risks to be assessed and resources to be strategically managed. The need for reliable and accurate fire models is of particular importance in the face of recent catastrophic wildfires in Australia, Europe and the United States. However, while fire spread models are developed using physical knowledge and empirical observations, there are few techniques which can be used to objectively assess the {\textquoteleft}goodness of fit{\textquoteright} of spatial predictions of fire spread. We propose a new method to allow the comparison of fire perimeters, providing for the discrimination of sources of simulation error and assisting in the collection of empirical spread data from observed fires. Differences between fire perimeters are quantified using linear vectors aligned with the direction of spread of the perimeter being sampled. These can provide an indication of difference in terms of the fire spread distance on the ground. The location, direction and length of these vectors can be used to assess spread rates to assist with model calibration. We demonstrated the utility of this method using a case study which assessed differences between the observed and simulated progression of an Australian wildfire. The new indices were found to be effective descriptors of differences in fire shape and hold potential for the spatial evaluation of fire spread models. The indices can be used to compare similar fire shapes; however they are unsuited for cases where there are large differences between perimeters.}, keywords = {Bushfire, Morphometrics, Perimeter, Shape analysis, Spatial validation, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.02.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213000455}, author = {Thomas Duff and Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {BF-3967, title = {Redistribution and emission of forest carbon by planned burning in Eucalyptus obliqua (L. H{\'e}rit.) forest of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {304}, year = {2013}, month = {15/09/2013}, chapter = {383}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2013.05.019}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112713003186}, author = {Volkova, Liubov and Weston, Chris} } @article {BF-4259, title = {Sediment availability on burned hillslopes}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {n/a - n/a}, doi = {10.1002/jgrf.20152}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrf.20152/abstract}, author = {Petter Nyman and Gary J. Sheridan and Moody, John A. and Smith, Hugh G. and Philip J. Noske and Lane, Patrick N. J.} } @article {BF-4295, title = {Sensitivity Analysis of PHOENIX RapidFire}, year = {2013}, month = {05/2013}, abstract = {An analysis of the sensitivity of the outputs of PHOENIX Rapidfire (PHOENIX) to a range of inputs and simulation parameters was undertaken. This was done using two separate methods; assessment of model response in an artificially generated idealised landscape and assessment using case-studies of real fires. The ideal landscape was used to evaluate model sensitivity in response to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, fuel type and wind direction relative to slope. The model was evaluated under two sets of weather conditions, mild (representing moderate fire spread potential) and extreme (representing high fire spread potential). Each scenario was evaluated for each of two fuel types, forest and grass. Sensitivity was evaluated in terms of the gross area burnt when the input of interest was systematically changed while all other inputs were held constant. For all evaluations except relative wind direction, model sensitivities were compared to an equivalent area burnt using the corresponding McArthur Forest or grassland fire danger meter (assuming an elliptical fire shape). The combination of wind direction and slope resulted in simulated fires that were not elliptical, so comparisons with shapes generated with the fire danger meters were not valid. PHOENIX predictions differed from those generated using point estimates for some circumstances; however without further investigation it is unclear on what is causing these differences. Differences in predictive performance are not necessarily representative of model error, as there are a number of differing assumptions between the systems used. However, specific situations have been flagged for follow up work. Two case study areas were used for PHOENIX model sensitivity evaluation; Wangary and Kilmore. Case study fires were simulated using observations from the day that the fires occurred with one input systematically varied. Three inputs were evaluated using the case studies; simulation resolution, start time (simulating fire ignition to occur earlier and later than observed) and start location (varying the ignition location in space). Sensitivity was evaluated by considering the change in the Area Difference Index (ADI, an index of the ratio between incorrectly predicted burnt area and the correctly predicted burnt area) from the baseline scenario (simulation resolution of 180m, ignition location and time as observed. Predictive performance varied wide with changing inputs. In general as the difference in input value to the {\textquoteleft}best estimate{\textquoteright} increased, predictive performance degraded.}, author = {Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G. and Thomas Duff and Brett Cirulis} } @article {BF-4000, title = {Sharing responsibility for implementing the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience - workshop report}, year = {2013}, month = {2013}, abstract = {A key message out of the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (NSDR) is that building a disaster resilient Australia is the shared responsibility of {\textquotedblleft}governments, businesses, not-for-profit, communities and individuals{\textquotedblright}. Yet while there is wide support for this position, a lot more work needs to be done to better understand how stakeholders can share responsibility for disaster resilience effectively and fairly. It is in this context that a one-day stakeholder workshop on {\textquoteleft}sharing responsibility for implementing the NSDR{\textquoteright} was held at the University of NSW in Sydney on 13th March 2013. Throughout the workshop, three panels of speakers representing a wide range of perspectives from {\textquotedblleft}governments, businesses, not-for-profit, communities and individuals{\textquotedblright} as well as from research were asked to address one or more of the following questions: 1. What would {\textquoteleft}disaster resilience{\textquoteright} look like and will we know it when we see it? 2. What has been learned about sharing responsibility for disaster resilience from experiences so far? 3. What aspects of current practices and relationships most need to change in order that responsibilities for disaster resilience can be shared effectively and fairly? Each speaker was given just 5-10 minutes to present their views, allowing time for group discussion following each panel sessions. Attendees were able to submit questions at any time during the day by SMS. These were then read out and responded to in a one-hour open discussion session at the end of the day. This event built on the work of the Bushfire CRC research project Sharing Responsibility undertaken by the Centre for Risk and Community Safety at RMIT University and is a follow-up to a successful workshop conducted as part of this project in Melbourne in March 2012 (http://www.bushfirecrc.com/publications/citation/bf-3336). The Sydney workshop was sponsored by RMIT University, the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility{\textquoteright}s (NCCARF) Emergency Management and Settlements \& Infrastructure (ACCARNSI) networks. Workshop organisation was a team effort by Blythe McLennan and John Handmer from RMIT/Bushfire CRC/NCCARF-EM, Tamara Rouse and Ron Cox from UNSW/ACCARNSI, and Jennifer Hearne and Chris Lee from the OEH. Tanyia Tuckey (NSW RFS) also provided valuable assistance. The workshop was hosted as a free event so that cost was not a barrier to people being able to attend. Carbon credits were purchased through Climate Friendly to offset the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the event (http://www.climatefriendly.com/). This public account of the workshop has been prepared so that others who were unable to attend can also {\textquoteleft}hear{\textquoteright} the range of issues and perspectives that were voiced at the workshop. Only the people listed in the schedule of speakers are referred to individually by name as they had agreed to speak publicly. All the invited speakers have reviewed, and in some cases made changes to, the session notes included in this account to ensure that the notes reflect what each speaker said and meant as closely as possible.}, author = {Austin, Emma and Hearne, Jennifer and Henry, Susan and Rance, Aliane and Travers, Amelia} } @article {BF-4335, title = {{\textquotedblleft}Should I Stay or Should I Go?{\textquotedblright} Defining the Preparatory Conditions in Support of Active Defence for Different Fire Danger Ratings}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

This is a paper presented at the 2013\ Bushfire\ CRC Research Forum.

In Australia, householders can stay and defend their properties during a bushfire if the\ household is adequately prepared. State (and territory) fire agencies have provided\ householders with checklists of desirable preparatory actions, including property preparation,\ judging ability of individuals, and acquiring equipment and resources for active defence.\ However, the lack of consistency in the existing checklists implies not all the listed\ preparatory actions are critical for making the decision of actively defending; in addition,\ agencies agree that the levels of desired preparedness should be associated with Fire\ Danger Ratings (FDR), the indicator of fire weather intensity. Still, no clarification exists\ concerning the exact levels to which a household should prepare to actively defend during\ different FDRs. This study therefore attempts to explore the critical nature of preparatory\ actions in relation to FDRs based on expert knowledge. To this aim, a survey was conducted\ with bushfire experts who were requested to rate whether each preparatory action is critical\ under different FDR conditions. Results from 36 experts confirmed our hypothesis that some\ preparatory items are not critical or only critical at certain FDRs. However, a more in-depth\ study with a range of experts is required to provide further consensus concerning the critical\ preparatory actions and to clarify discrepancies of opinions for items highlighted as\ controversial through the survey process.

}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cao_y.pdf}, author = {Yinghui Cao and Bryan J Boruff and Ilona M McNeill} } @conference {BF-4284, title = {Smoke impacts from prescribed burning in Victoria; developing a risk climatology}, booktitle = {20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {200-206}, chapter = {200}, abstract = {Following an increase in the frequency of extreme fire weather in recent years and the subsequent loss of life and damage to property, fire agencies in Australia are under pressure to increase fuel reduction burning. However, at the same time, there is an increasing pressure to reduce the risk of population exposure to smoke. Reconciling these competing demands is a major challenge. Currently, wind speed and direction are the main guides used by agencies for estimating regions at risk from smoke plume strikes. However, plume dispersion models and computing resources are now sufficiently developed so that the risk to towns and cities from planned fuel reduction and agricultural fires can also be assessed using these tools. This is of particular relevance in north central Victoria, Gippsland and the Riverina where there is a need to identify those areas of forest and farmland most likely to pose a smoke hazard to nearby towns during the autumn and spring burning seasons. In this paper, we introduce a numerical modelling system which can be used to undertake an assessment of the risk to communities resulting from smoke generated by fuel reduction burning. The paper demonstrates how the system can be used in an inverse modelling mode to investigate the relationship between sensitive receptor- and upwind source regions. Using the Ovens Valley in north-eastern Victoria as an example, we apply the CSIRO dispersion model, The Air Pollution Model ( TAPM) coupled to the CSIRO Chemical Transport Model (CTM) to simulate the dispersion of PM2.5 emitted daily between 11:00 and 16:00 during April 2009 from each 3 km x 3 km grid cell in a 50 x 50 cell domain centred on Harrietville. From these data we can assess the relative impact of each source cell on any receptor cell within the domain. Taking the towns of Myrtleford, Harrietville and Mt Beauty as test cases, we find that the greatest likelihood of smoke impact is from fires close to the receptor cell, however more distant sources are also significant, with the strongest located on the valley slopes. Vegetated source areas in the bottom of the valleys and on ridges have least impact. Harrietville and Mt Beauty, which lie in different valleys, nevertheless have similar source risk distributions, in contrast to Myrtleford, which lies downstream of Harrietville on the Ovens River, and has a totally different source risk profile. Significantly, there is no indication of a prevailing flow for any of the three receptor cells. We discuss how the system can be used to provide a self-consistent framework for testing smoke transport screening approaches for use by fire managers for planning prescribed burning schedules.}, keywords = {Fuel reduction burning, screening modelling, screening tools, smoke hazard, transport modelling}, url = {http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/meyer2.pdf}, author = {Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Lee, S and Cope, ME} } @article {BF-4303, title = {Social Connectedness and Adaptive Team Coordination During Fire Events}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {59}, year = {2013}, month = {07/2013}, pages = {30-36}, chapter = {30}, abstract = {Preparing for fire-related emergencies and consequence management is considered to be dynamic and challenging in managing crises, preventing losses, and in the allocation of resources. In this study, we argue that improving plans and operations of personnel involved in managing fire-related emergencies is an important area of investigation. Here, we investigate the effects of social connectedness among different team members to manage bushfires. We further analyze response coordination by exploring variables such as participants{\textquoteright} preparedness quality, quality of incident action planning, and quality of accessibility of resources. In doing so, we also test the effects of these variables on improved adaptive behavior. Our results show high positive correlation between social connectedness for team members and coordination quality and also adaptive behavior. We also found significant relationship between coordination and adaptive behavior. Applying regression analyses, the results indicate positive significant effect of social connectedness on coordination and adaptive behavior and also the effect of coordination on adaptive behavior. By exploring the proposed model, we are able to develop a better understanding of the factors that support adaptive behavior in incident management teams responding to bushfire events.}, keywords = {Coordination quality, Disaster management, Incident management team, Participants adaptive behavior, Team connectedness}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2013.03.016}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711213000751}, author = {Alireza Abbasi and Owen, Christine and Liaquat Hossain and Jafar Hamra} } @article {BF-3999, title = {A spatial optimisation model for multi-period landscape level fuel management to mitigate wildfire impacts}, journal = {European Journal of Operational Research}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Elevated fuel loads are contributing to an increase in the occurrence of, and area burned by, severe wildfires in many regions across the globe. In an attempt to reverse this trend, fire and land management agencies are investing in extensive fuel management programs. However, the planning of fuel treatment activities poses complicated decision-making problems with spatial and temporal dimensions. Here, we present a mixed integer programming model for spatially explicit multi-period scheduling of fuel treatments. The model provides a flexible framework that allows for landscape heterogeneity and a range of ecological and operational considerations and constraints. The model{\textquoteright}s functionality is demonstrated on a series of hypothetical test landscapes and a number of implementation issues are discussed.}, keywords = {Fuel management, Integer programming, OR in natural resources, Spatial optimization, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejor.2013.07.026}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221713006073}, author = {Minas, James P. and John Hearne and Martell, David} } @article {BF-4217, title = {Strategic emergency management in Australia and New Zealand - discussion paper on implications of research}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The research conducted as part of the Organising for Effective Emergency Management project has been discussed with senior emergency management leaders to identify and discuss industry implications. Through this process seven challenges facing senior emergency management leaders have been identified. The purpose of this paper is to outline the challenges discussed and to raise questions for supporting strategic levels of emergency management in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration and magnitude of emergency events have placed significant challenges on the emergency services sector. Emergency events that are unprecedented in intensity and geographic spread and have significant impacts on communities are called {\textquotedblleft}out of scale events{\textquotedblright}. In such events there are a range of emergency management activities performed by people working at operational, tactical and strategic levels. At an operational level, first responders are working directly on the front line of the fire or incident ground. At a tactical level, local incident management teams work at supporting front line responders in containing and mitigating the event and in enabling communities to make good decisions. At a strategic level (which may be regional state or national) there is a focus on two elements: oversight of incident management operations and consequence management for longer term recovery. Emergency managers operating at strategic (regional, state, national) levels face an increasingly complex set of future challenges that must be addressed. Strategic level emergency management is engaged in high-consequence, non-routine and out-of-scale emergency events. At this level there is high political engagement; longer term concerns for direct and indirect consequences on economical and societal well-being. The emphasis at a strategic emergency management level is on: (i) oversight of incident management operations and (ii) consequence management. Influencing these challenges are drivers such as climate change as well as other social, political and economic factors. The first five challenges discussed pertain to the contextual drivers influencing the emergency management sector and the last two are enablers internal to the sector. The challenges are: 1. Increased uncertainty, complexity and convergence 2. Disaster Risk Reduction and policy disconnects 3. Expectations and {\textquoteleft}resilience{\textquoteright} of communities 4. Social media, networking, and emergence 5. The political-operational nexus 6. Evaluating emergency management response effectiveness 7. Development and Capability The discussion paper will be used to continue consultation with key stakeholders on the research utilisation options that can be proposed to build a resilient emergency services sector to manage these future challenges. }, author = {Owen, Christine and Karyn Bosomworth and Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B} } @article {BF-3487, title = {A survey to identify physically demanding tasks performed during storm damage operations by Australian State Emergency Services personnel}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {44}, year = {2013}, month = {1/2013}, pages = {128 - 133}, abstract = {Purpose To identify and characterize the physically demanding tasks performed by SES personnel during storm damage work. Methods Thirty-six tasks identified as the most operationally important to storm damage work were included in a survey which was available to all SES volunteers. The survey aimed to identify the physical demand, operational importance, frequency, duration, principal actions and fitness components of each task. Results Twelve tasks were identified as the most physically demanding. Of these, carrying sandbags, lifting sandbags and shoveling sand (with hands) rated highest. Covering roof damages with tarpaulin and erecting external weather proofing were ranked highest for operational importance. Box lifting (single-person) and erecting external weather proofing returned the highest mode values for frequency, whereas tasks involving handling sandbags returned the highest mean and median frequency values. Covering roof damages with tarpaulin was identified as the longest task. Bending, lifting, twisting and carrying were the most common actions identified for the physically demanding tasks. Muscular strength and muscular endurance were the primary fitness components identified for the twelve tasks. Conclusion SES personnel perform a variety of storm response tasks, many of which are physically demanding. All or most of the physically demanding tasks contain elements of bending, lifting, twisting and carrying, and call upon personnel{\textquoteright}s muscular strength and muscular endurance capabilities.}, issn = {00036870}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2012.05.010}, author = {Larsen, Brianna and Graham, Tony and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3939, title = {Temperate eucalypt forest decline is linked to altered ectomycorrhizal communities mediated by soil chemistry}, year = {2013}, month = {08/2013}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2013.04.006}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112713002120}, author = {Horton, Bryony M. and Close, DC and WARDLAW, T. J. and Davidson, N. J. and Morag, G and Ratkowsky, D and Mohammed, C} } @article {BF-4289, title = {Testing existing models for predicting hourly variation in fine fuel moisture in eucalypt forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {306}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, pages = {202-215}, chapter = {202}, abstract = {Several days of hourly fuel moisture sampling were carried out in Southern Tasmania in dry and damp eucalyptus forest to test fuel moisture prediction models used in Australia, and to provide information on equilibrium moisture content and response time for use in more complex models. Moisture contents of near surface, surface, profile litter and bark fuels were measured, along with standard weather variables. On one set of four consecutive days fuel temperatures were also measured with thermocouples. One of the simple empirical fuel moisture prediction models worked well on the litter fuels for which it was intended, but another of the simple models in common use, predicted poorly, particularly on the damp site. One of the simple models was modified, and gave acceptable predictions for profile litter. Another simple model was calibrated to give good predictions for near surface, bark and litter fuels in the middle of the day. A more physically-based {\textquoteleft}bookkeeping{\textquoteright} model for estimating response time and EMC worked very well on all strata but the litter profile. Response times of all fuel strata were of the order of 1 h. A process based model worked slightly better than the EMC estimation model for near surface, litter and bark fuel and considerably better for profile litter, especially on the damp site. On the whole these models performed better than the simple empirical models, but they were tuned to various degrees by site information.}, keywords = {Bookkeeping model, Eucalyptus forest, Fine fuel moisture, Process-based model}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.06.033}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112713004015}, author = {Slijepcevic, A. and Wendy R. Anderson and Stuart Matthews} } @article {bnh-1792, title = {Tympanic Temperature to Predict Core Temperatures of Firefighters Report}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

This study examined the validity of tympanic temperature measurements as a predictor of core temperature on the fireground in different environmental conditions. Fifty-one volunteer firefighters participated in the study across four different conditions, the conditions consisted of; 1) passive (i.e., no intervention) cooling in cold ambient temperatures (0-6{\textdegree}C); 2) cooling (through water immersion) in cool ambient temperatures (10-12{\textordmasculine}C); 3) cooling (through water immersion) in warm ambient temperatures (21.5{\textdegree}C); and, 4) passive cooling in warm ambient temperatures (22{\textdegree}C). Firefighters wore full structural personal protective clothing while performing common firefighting duties including search and rescue tasks for 20-40 minutes. There was no difference between core and tympanic temperature immediately post-exercise across any condition. However, for all conditions, tympanic temperature dropped significantly faster than core temperature from 0 minutes, and remained significantly lower (p \< 0.05) than core temperature from nine to 20 minutes post-training. The results show that there is no consistent difference between core and tympanic temperature during recovery from a simulated firefighting task across a range of different ambient conditions. Agencies should, accordingly, prioritize investigating other practical markers of core temperature as part of a broader heat stress management plan for firefighters.

}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-6-2}, author = {Larsen, Brianna and Peter Langridge and Anna Ruzic and Cara Lord and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-4267, title = {Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {47}, year = {2013}, month = {2013}, pages = {16-28}, chapter = {16}, abstract = {The degree of accuracy in model predictions of rate of spread in wildland fires is dependent on the model{\textquoteright}s applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model{\textquoteright}s relationships, and the reliability of the model input data. On the basis of a compilation of 49 fire spread model evaluation datasets involving 1278 observations in seven different fuel type groups, the limits on the predictability of current operational models are examined. Only 3\% of the predictions (i.e. 35 out of 1278) were considered to be exact predictions according to the criteria used in this study. Mean percent error varied between 20 and 310\% and was homogeneous across fuel type groups. Slightly more than half of the evaluation datasets had mean errors between 51 and 75\%. Under-prediction bias was prevalent in 75\% of the 49 datasets analysed. A case is made for suggesting that a 35\% error interval (i.e. approximately one standard deviation) would constitute a reasonable standard for model performance in predicting a wildland fire{\textquoteright}s forward or heading rate of spread. We also found that empirical-based fire behaviour models developed from a solid foundation of field observations and well accepted functional forms adequately predicted rates of fire spread far outside of the bounds of the original dataset used in their development.}, keywords = {bushfire behaviour, bushfire spread, Fire behaviour, fire spread}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.04.004}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Alexander, ME} } @proceedings {BF-4367, title = {Water Quality Risk Due to Fire Disturbance: Tools for Quantifying}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/water-quality-risk-due-fire-disturbance-tools-quantifying}, author = {Petter Nyman and Gary J. Sheridan and Owen D. Jones and Lane, Patrick N. J. and Christopher Sherwin and Philip J. Noske and Rene van der Sant} } @proceedings {BF-4348, title = {Winter Hazard Reduction Burning Reduces the Fuel Load in Themeda and Phalaris during Summer}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/winter-hazard-reduction-burning-reduces-fuel-load-themeda-and-phalaris-dur}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Jennie Mallela and Dylan Kendall and Neil Cooper} } @article {BF-3466, title = {Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, year = {2012}, month = {8/2012}, abstract = {The 7 February 2009 wildfires in south-eastern Australia burned over 450,000 ha and resulted in 173 human fatalities. The Kilmore East fire was the most significant of these fires, burning 100,000 ha in less than 12 h and accounting for 70\% of the fatalities. We report on the weather conditions, fuels and propagation of this fire to gain insights into the physical processes involved in high intensity fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Driven by a combination of exceedingly dry fuel and near-gale to gale force winds, the fire developed a dynamic of profuse short range spotting that resulted in rates of fire spread varying between 68 and 153 m min-1 and average fireline intensities up to 88,000 kW m-1. Strong winds aloft and the development of a strong convection plume led to the transport of firebrands over considerable distances causing the ignition of spotfires up to 33 km ahead of the main fire front. The passage of a wind change between 17:30 and 18:30 turned the approximately 55 km long eastern flank of the fire into a headfire. Spotting and mass fire behaviour associated with this wide front resulted in the development of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud that injected smoke and other combustion products into the lower stratosphere. The benchmark data collected in this case study will be invaluable for the evaluation of fire behaviour models. The study is also a source of real world data from which simulation studies investigating the impact of landscape fuel management on the propagation of fire under the most severe burning conditions can be undertaken.}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.035}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Sullivan, Andrew and J.S. Gould and Sims, N.C. and Bannister, A.J. and Jennifer J Hollis and Hurley, R.J.} } @article {BF-3546, title = {Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, year = {2012}, month = {06/2012}, pages = {120604140651001}, abstract = {A systematic examination is presented of the relationship between lightning occurrence and fires attributed to lightning ignitions. Lightning occurrence data are matched to a database of fires attributed to lightning ignition over southeastern Australia, and compared with atmospheric and fuel characteristics at the time of the lightning occurrence. Factors influencing the chance of fire per lightning stroke are examined, including the influence of fuel moisture and weather parameters, as well as seasonal and diurnal variations. The fuel moisture parameters of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System are found to be useful in indicating whether or not a fire will occur, given the occurrence of lightning. The occurrence of {\textquoteleft}dry lightning{\textquoteright}, i.e. lightning which occurs without significant rainfall, is found to have a large influence on the chance of fire per lightning stroke. Through comparison of the results presented here with the results of studies from other parts of the world, a considerable degree of universality is shown to exist in the characteristics of lightning-fires and the atmospheric conditions associated with them, suggesting the potential for these results to be applied more widely than just in the area of the study.}, issn = {1558-8424}, doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0219.1}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-3194, title = {Australian wildfire litigation}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Legal liability is an issue that concerns volunteer firefighters and may affect the ability of fire managers to perform their tasks. There are calls to guarantee firefighters will not be personally liable for actions undertaken in good faith. This paper reviews post-wildfire litigation in Australia and claims for compensation made against the New South Wales Rural Fire Service. Although the data are incomplete and likely to underestimate the actual claims history, analysis of the available data does show that the number of claims for compensation is small given the very large number of fires and hazard reduction burns across Australia. There is no evidence of extensive post-fire litigation or of fire agencies or firefighters being held liable for actions taken in the course of firefighting The evidence does not support assertions that there is an {\textquoteleft}increasing flood{\textquoteright} of legal claims arising from firefighting. Post-fire litigation is compared with other proceeding such as Royal Commissions and coronial inquiries. It is argued that it is not liability, but the lengthy post-event inquiry process and the risk of personal criticism that should be the concern of fire managers and firefighters.}, doi = {10.1071/WF11094}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-3099, title = {{\textquotedblleft}Awake, smoky, and hot{\textquotedblright}: Providing an evidence-base for managing the risks associated with occupational stressors encountered by wildland firefighters}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {43}, year = {2012}, month = {01/2012}, abstract = {

To curtail the spread of wildfire, firefighters are often required to work long hours in hot, smoky conditions with little rest between consecutive shifts. In isolation, heat, smoke, and sleep disruption can have a detrimental impact on cognitive and physical abilities. Far less is known, however, about the combined impact that heat, smoke, and sleep disruption can have on firefighters{\textquoteright} performance during wildfire suppression or on human performance in general. The available literature, though scant, suggests that audio and visual tracking may be degraded after sustained heat exposure following one night of sleep deprivation. Exposure to heat and carbon monoxide, in contrast, appears to have only limited impact on cognitive performance, even after physical exercise. Heat and carbon monoxide exposure does, however, increase physiological exertion to a given work or exercise bout. To the authors{\textquoteright} knowledge, there are no published studies that have explored the impacts of heat exposure following sleep disruption on physical work performance, sleep disruption and smoke exposure on physical or cognitive work, or the combined impacts of sleep disruption, smoke and heat exposure on cognitive or physical work. While more integrative research is needed, the current review provides a summary of the available evidence and an indication of the degree of confidence agencies can have in the research. This will allow both the scientific community and agencies to make informed recommendations regarding the management of wildland firefighters{\textquoteright} health and safety on the fireground.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2011.12.013}, author = {Brad Aisbett and Alexander Wolkow and Sprajcer, M. and Susan Ferguson} } @article {bnh-1784, title = {Cardiovascular Risk Screening Volunteer Firefighters Report}, year = {2012}, month = {08/2012}, abstract = {

Background: The work demands involved in firefighting place significant stress on the cardiovascular system. This study investigated the application of the AHA/ACSM Health/Fitness Facility Preparticipation Screening Questionnaire in volunteer Country Fire Brigade (CFA) firefighters.

Methods: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors were measured in 3777 CFA firefighters and entered into a modified version of the American Heart Association (AHA)/ACSM Health/Fitness Facility Preparticipation Screening Questionnaire to stratify individuals as low, moderate or high risk.

Results: Just over half (50.8\%) of female and more than two thirds (68.2\%) of male CFA firefighters were classified as moderate risk. The questionnaire further stratified 2.6\% of female and 5.2\% of male CFA firefighters as high risk while the remaining 46.6\% and 26.6\% of female and male firefighters, respectively, were classified as low risk.

Conclusion: The majority of firefighters screened were at moderate risk and therefore, would be advised by AHA/ACSM guidelines to undertake and pass a detailed medical examination and a medically supervised exercise test prior to initiating vigorous intensity physical activity. However, considering the financial and practical implications (e.g., reduced emergency response capacity) the introduction of mandatory screening may cause, fire agencies should focus screening for high risk personnel only, while promoting agency wide CVD health education.

}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-6-2}, author = {Alexander Wolkow and Kevin Netto and Peter Langridge and Jeff Green and Nichols, David and Michael Sergeant and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-4215, title = {A case study comparing aspects of state level incident management approaches}, year = {2012}, abstract = {

This section provides an overview of the types of state level arrangements typically in place during emergency events. The case examples are from the states of Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland. In the event of a significant emergency (either predicted or in play), a State Emergency Management Team or Committee is formed comprising of multiple agencies for both the response and recovery phases. The fire service agencies are a member of State Emergency Management Team and take the role of the combat agency during major bushfires. State emergency management plans in different jurisdictions describe the arrangements for multi-agency coordination to support combat agency response. State arrangements also make provision for rescue, recovery and the relief of communities affected by emergency events

}, author = {Bhandari, R and Steve Curnin} } @article {BF-4210, title = {Challenges and implications facing senior personnel engaged at regional and state levels of emergency management operation coordination}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, abstract = { Senior fire and emergency services personnel have to manage many complex challenges and these demands are going to increase in the future. In order to understand what these challenges are and potential options for improvement, interviews were conducted as part of the Bushfire CRC funded research Organising for Effective Incident Management. The aim of the research was to better understand the information needs and decision-making challenges facing those operating at senior leadership level above the local Incident Management Team so that strategies to move forward can then be identified. These interviews form part of a consultation process that will feed into a discussion (Green) paper of issues confronting the industry and, in collaboration with the industry, into a White paper outlining strategic directions for the future. This report provides a synthesis of challenges raised in interviews conducted with 54 personnel working above the local incident management level. Telephone or face-to face interviews were conducted using a grounded theory approach. This report discusses the main challenges that were reported and that need to be confronted to manage future emergency events. }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/challenges-and-implications-facing-senior-personnel-engaged-regional-and-s}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-3146, title = {Changes in behaviour of fire in dry eucalypt forest as fuel increases with age}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {271}, year = {2012}, month = {5/2012}, pages = {170 - 181}, abstract = {This paper describes the conduct and results of a series of high-intensity experimental fires in dry eucalypt forest under summer conditions of high fire danger. Simultaneous experimental fires were conducted at two locations with contrasting understorey and fuel structures that had developed over periods of 2{\textendash}22 years after prescribed burning. Fuel characteristics (load, height, and visual scores that gave a numerical rating of structure) and wind speed were correlated with fire spread, flame height, firebrand density and spotting distance, all of which increased with time since the last fire. The near-surface layer was the dominant stratum affecting headfire rate of spread during these experiments and provided a common descriptor for fuel types that were visually very different because of the characteristics of the understorey shrubs. Visual hazard scores that reflected the quantity and arrangement of surface and near-surface fuel were more strongly correlated with most fire behaviour variables than were the corresponding fuel load variables. Visual ratings of fuel structure should be suitable to include in algorithms to predict fire behaviour and fire threat.}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.003}, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and J.S. Gould and Phillip Cheney, N. and Ellis, Peter and Wendy R. Anderson} } @article {BF-3245, title = { Changing the rules of the game: mechanisms that shape responsibility-sharing from beyond Australian fire and emergency management.}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, month = {April 2012}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In this paper, we look beyond Australian fire and emergency management to compare ways that responsibility-sharing {\textendash} broadly conceived {\textendash} has occurred in other places and sectors where risks to community safety are faced. Responsibility-sharing occurs any time there is collective action, and formal and informal institutions provide the {\textquotedblleft}rules of the game{\textquotedblright} that prescribe how responsibility should be shared amongst the parties involved. We reviewed a broad sample of risk research literature in order to examine by what mechanisms responsibility-sharing institutions have been shaped in other places and sectors where risks to community safety are faced. Our review revealed more alternatives for shaping responsibilitysharing institutions than are widely considered by policy and decision makers in Australian fire and emergency management. It therefore raises an important question about why certain mechanisms are chosen, prioritised, overlooked or resisted in this sector. An alternative way of conceiving and pursuing shared responsibility is also discussed.}, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Documents/WEMA\%20Vol27No1_McLennan.PDF}, author = {John Handmer} } @article {BF-3195, title = {Characteristics of lightning-attributed wildland fires in south-east Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Wildland fires attributed to lightning ignitions in Victoria, Australia, are examined systematically through the use of lightning occurrence data. Lightning stroke data were obtained by a network of ground-based lightning detection sensors over a 9-year period. Characteristics of these fires are examined including the temporal variability in the average chance of fire occurrence per lightning stroke and the time period from lightning ignition of a fire until the fire grows large enough to be first observed, as well as distributions of fire duration and total area burnt. It is found that the time of day that lightning occurs does not have a significant influence on the chance of fire per lightning stroke, in contrast to the time of year, for which a significant annual variation occurs. Regional variability is examined by discussing the results for Victoria, Australia, in relation to results of studies from other parts of the world.}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills} } @proceedings {BF-3755, title = {Community adaptation to bushfire in a changing climate: Developing a toolkit for local government in Tasmania}, year = {2012}, pages = {83-86}, publisher = {IAWF}, abstract = {to capture the dimensions of social life at a local level (Wellman, 1999). It also draws attention to the way understandings are developed in relation to the specificity of localities in the context of disaster (Paton and Jackson, 2002). Thus the term community refers to many aspects of social life, spatiality, symbolic reference, and political decision making and social activity. Despite the divergent uses of the concept of community, there are three main ways of understanding community, which encompass much of the available sociological research: (i) community as locality; (ii) community as a shared sense of belonging; and (iii) community as a social network (Blackshaw, 2010).}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Suasan Chaplin and Peter Fairbrother} } @article {BF-3122, title = {Differences in water use between mature and post-fire regrowth stands of subalpine Eucalyptus delegatensis R. Baker}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {270}, year = {2012}, month = {4/2012}, pages = {1 - 10}, abstract = {We estimated plot level water use from sap flux measurements over a 9-month period, in post-fire regrowth and mature plots of Eucalyptus delegatensis R. Baker (Alpine ash) in high elevation catchments near Falls Creek, Victoria, Australia, seven years after a major stand-replacing bushfire. Water use was more than double (460 {\textpm} 100 mm year-1 more) in regrowth as compared to mature plots, whereas sap flux was similar between age classes. This difference in water use reflected 72\% greater sapwood area index and 35\% greater leaf area index in regrowth than in mature plots. A small part of the difference in water use can be attributed to nocturnal transpiration, which was greater in regrowth than in mature plots (10.3 {\textpm} 0.8\% vs 7.3 {\textpm} 0.8\% of diel totals). As evaporative demand was 41\% greater in mature than in regrowth plots, these data suggest mean transpiration rate and stomatal conductance per unit leaf area were approximately 1.6 and 2.3 times greater, respectively, in the regrowth. However, mid-day leaf water potential and photosynthetic capacity were similar in both age classes. Evaporative demand was the primary environmental driver of water use in all cases, whereas soil moisture was not a strong driver of either water use or canopy conductance (estimated as sap flux/evaporative demand). Together, our results suggest (a) stand water use rapidly recovers after fire in these high elevation forests and quickly surpasses rates in mature stands, confirming projections by Kuczera (1987) for lower-elevation Mountain Ash (E. regnans) forests and highlighting the potential impact of tree water use on water yield in the first decade of forest regeneration after fires, and (b) stomatal conductance and sapwood area/leaf area ratio are both less in tall, older Alpine ash trees, whereas leaf water status and photosynthetic capacity appear to be sustained {\textendash} consistent with predictions from optimisation theory but not Pipe-Model Theory.}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.01.008}, author = {Buckley, TN and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Sebastian Pfautsch and Gharun, Mana and Adams, Mark A.} } @proceedings {BF-3757, title = {Discussing ancillary ways to consider community awareness contexts}, year = {2012}, pages = {116-126}, abstract = {One element of Shared Responsibility models for wildfire management is community awareness. Though programs to enhance this element are applied in different, authentic, strategic forms, the general intent of the approaches are relatively similar {\textendash} to create informed individuals who are thoughtful and knowledgeable about risk, and aware of their shared role in understanding, maintaining, and responding within landscapes. In light of my recent field research experience in two fire-risk regions of Victoria (AU), this paper will discuss three concerns that have emerged in relation to the process of building community awareness. The first concern involves identifying the fundamental distinction between neighborhoods and communities, thus presenting the need to focus on approaching communities in different ways. The second concern suggests a need to move away from local neighborhood-defined approaches, by recognizing that people are mobile and therefore live in ephemeral {\textquotedblleft}communities{\textquotedblright}. The third topic focuses on the global standard of competing interests, where people must select interests perceived as most relevant, from within highly over-stimulating environments. The impact these issues have on people{\textquoteright}s ability to share, absorb and reflect on risk information, let alone focus on recognizing when available information may be relevant, is critically linked to the promotion of Shared Responsibility in community awareness contexts.}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Sondra Dickinson} } @proceedings {BF-3758, title = {Ecological and social {\textquotedblleft}place{\textquotedblright} mapping to assist bushfire management and research}, year = {2012}, pages = {127-131}, abstract = {strategy implies that individual assets and threats in the landscape can be identified and that planning can proceed on that basis. The question that arises however is who decides what is an asset and what is a threat when multiple values are being managed within multiple management regimes. We argue that bushfire knowledge encompasses technical constructs based on for example, the science of fire ecology or fire danger indices; and social constructs grounded in assumptions about how different types of landscapes should be managed (e.g. for biodiversity, amenity or production). Fire management agencies prioritize scientific-technical solutions to wildfire prediction and control. Consequently, the {\textquoteleft}social{\textquoteright} revolves around one-way knowledge transfer, communicating the science to people living in fire-prone communities. We apply resilience thinking to bushfire research by focusing on complex and interdependent social and ecological systems as linked domains of understanding. Using the metaphor of {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright} as the location where social and ecological systems are entwined (e.g. Meinig 1979), we explore bushfire as a physical reality comprised of topographies, and ecological systems; and as a social process involving practices of negotiation and interpretation that shape landscape management. ...}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Karen Reid and Ruth Beilin} } @article {BF-3623, title = {The effect of prescribed fluid consumption on physiology and work behavior of wildfire fighters}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, year = {2012}, month = {11/2012}, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to examine 1) wildfire fighters{\textquoteright} ability to consume the prescribed fluid volume (1200 mL h-1), 2) the effect of fluid intake on plasma sodium and hydration, and 3) the effect of fluid intake on firefighters{\textquoteright} heart rate, core temperature and activity during emergency suppression shifts. Methods Thirty-four firefighters were divided into ad libitum (AD, n = 17) and prescribed (PR, n = 17) drinking groups. Results PR drinkers did not meet the prescribed fluid target, yet consumed over double the volume of AD drinkers. No differences between groups in plasma sodium or hydration were noted. PR drinking resulted in lower core temperature between 2 and 6 h. This did not coincide with reduced cardiovascular strain, greater work activity or larger distances covered when compared to AD drinkers. Conclusion Extra fluid consumption (above AD) did not improve firefighter activity or physiological function (though PR firefighters core temperature was lower earlier in their shift). Firefighter can self-regulate their fluid consumption behavior and work rate to leave the fireground hydrated. }, issn = {00036870}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2012.10.002}, author = {Raines, Jenni and Rodney Snow and Aaron Petersen and Jack Harvey and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3197, title = {Effective Communication of Bushfire Risk in the Urban-Parkland Interface}, year = {2012}, month = {May 2012}, abstract = {Australia is one of the most bushfire-prone areas in the world. Initial reports by fire authorities show communities around urban parklands are unaware of the bushfire risk they face. This project was commissioned by the Bushfire CRC to serve as a pilot program for the study of bushfire communication in communities within the urban-parkland interface. Through literature review and interviews with community members and officials in Blackburn, we found current communication campaigns to be ineffective. We generated a series of recommendations to improve the effectiveness of communication around the City of Whitehorse with specific goals for communication in Blackburn. Report by Worcester Polytechnic Institute Students}, author = {James Everett and Stephen Kocienski and Nataniel Lobel} } @article {BF-4278, title = {Effects of networks on learning during emergency events}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {21}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, pages = {584-598}, chapter = {584}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} This paper aims to explore the relationship between learning and the social networks employed within the context of emergency management. It hypothesises, using social network theory as a framework for analysis, that changes to interconnectedness between actors are implicated in the potential for those actors to learn and improvise in dynamically changing and emergent conditions. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} To test the hypotheses, survey data were investigated which were collected as part of a research study with the support of the Australian Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre (CRC). This survey was completed by experienced personnel reflecting on a number of indicators in an emergency event. Findings {\textendash} Results show that increases in actors{\textquoteright} involvement within the social emergency management network influences the ability of those actors to engage in learning-related work activity. The paper infers that by developing learning related resources within the context of their social interactions these emergency personnel are better able to adapt and improvise in complex emergency events. Research limitations/implications {\textendash} As an area of further research, it would be useful to apply the existing theoretical model to the context of another domain, preferably one that shares characteristics of uncertainty and unstable environments. Originality/value {\textendash} Most existing studies of learning theory in human networks have focused on learning in situations requiring stable working relationships with no environmental uncertainties. In this paper, it is argued that the designs of existing models are useful as a building block, yet flawed for application within the context of disaster management. By presenting a model of learning-related work activity, as an ongoing aspect of network connectedness, personnel within emergency services organisations can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable.}, keywords = {Adaptability, Australia, Bushfire, Emergency management, Fire, Learning, Social networks}, issn = {0965-3562}, doi = {10.1108/09653561211278716 }, url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=17063627}, author = {Jafar Hamra and Liaquat Hossain and Owen, Christine and Alireza Abbasi} } @article {BF-3184, title = {The emerging legal issue of failure to warn}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, chapter = {51}, abstract = {This paper will review the legal obligation upon the emergency services to warn the community of impending natural disasters. The essential legal elements in {\textquoteleft}failure to warn{\textquoteright} cases will be identified and, with reference to findings from post event inquiries (including the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission), post event litigation (including litigation arising from the 2003 Canberra fires) and recent amendments to legislation (including the Fire Services Commissioner 2010 (Vic)) the implications for the emergency services and their media advisers will be discussed. This paper will show that agencies must, in future, put as much effort into {\textquoteleft}putting out the information{\textquoteright} as they do in {\textquoteleft}putting out the fire{\textquoteright}!}, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Documents/AJEM\%2027-1/Volume_27_issue_one.PDF$\#$page=54}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-3593, title = {Estimating the economic, social and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2012}, month = {10/2012}, pages = {1 - 19}, abstract = {Wildfires often result in widespread destruction and damage to a range of economic, social and environmental assets and functions. This article presents an economic loss assessment framework which has not only been developed to value these assets, but more importantly addresses the fundamental economic principles commonly lacking in other frameworks. Five severe south-eastern Australian wildfires were used as case studies to examine the utility of the framework. The impact and cost data collected as part of this framework provide valuable information for a range of applications, such as measuring the efficacy of government response and recovery arrangements and programmes, shaping policies and providing businesses with disaster information on which they can make decisions. Some areas requiring further research were identified. These included the need to develop consistent values for estimating environmental impacts, in the form of ecosystem service values for south-eastern Australia, and a standardized survey format for valuing a range of indirect economic and social impacts.}, issn = {1747-7891}, doi = {10.1080/17477891.2012.703490}, author = {Catherine Stephenson and John Handmer and Betts, Robyn} } @article {BF-4292, title = {Evaluation of weather data at different spatial and temporal scales on fire behaviour prediction using PHOENIX RapidFire 4.0 - Kilmore Case Study}, year = {2012}, abstract = {High resolution models might be expected to produce more accurate predictions, but in the case of weather forecasting data used to predict the spread of the 2009 Kilmore fire, this was not found to be true. Current weather forecasts are available on a 3600 m grid at hourly intervals. In time, computing power will enable finer spatial and temporal forecast weather to be produced operationally. This study was undertaken to understand what benefit finer scaled data might be to fire spread prediction. PHOENIX RapidFire was used to model the 2009 Kilmore fire with different spatial and temporal weather inputs. Because the fire of this size interacts with the local weather, it was found that courser level weather inputs performed better than very fine resolution data. Overall, weather forecasts at 30 minutes intervals and 1200 m spacing provided the best inputs for matching the progression of the fire. Once the fire had reached about 100,000 ha, 60 minute, 3600 m data gave the best predictions. Modelling weather at 400 m resolutions and at 5 minute intervals provides good insights into the dynamics of the weather which assists a weather forecaster, but that additional detail is not of the same benefit to fire spread predictions because large fires "smooth" the weather, terrain and fuel in the landscape. More case-studies need to be undertaken, including smaller fires burning under milder conditions to better understand the relationship between weather data scale and fire spread prediction.}, author = {Chong, Derek and Thomas Duff and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {BF-3175, title = {Exploiting three dimensional vegetation structure to map wildland extent}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {123}, year = {2012}, month = {8/2012}, pages = {155 - 162}, abstract = {Wildland and wilderness refer to areas of land which have been subject to little or no modification by human activity. These areas are important due to their role as wildlife habitats, the contributions they make to air and water quality and for human recreation. However, the intermingling of wildland and homes also increases the risk to life and property through wildfires. Management of this risk requires current and detailed knowledge of the spatial extent of wildland. What constitutes wildland vegetation is often difficult to define and may be influenced by both the horizontal continuity and vertical structure. We present a method to map wildland vegetation based on a combination of a vertically stratified cover threshold and spatial morphology. To test its practical application, the method was applied to airborne lidar data collected prior to a major wildfire that occurred in Australia in 2009. Distance between the lidar defined wildland extent and homes impacted by the fire was assessed and compared to previously published data using manual delineation of wildland extent. Results showed that the proportion of homes destroyed at the wildland boundary was greater than reported in previous fires and that there was an exponential decline in the proportion of homes destroyed as a function of distances to wildland. Although the method is objective the extent of wildland depends on the parameters which define thresholds of cover and lateral extent and connectivity. This highlights the need for a clear definition of wildland that can be used to determine extent using objective methods such as those described, whether this is in the context of quantifying wildfire vulnerability or other related applications such as ecological assessment and monitoring.}, issn = {00344257}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.026}, author = {Glenn J Newnham and Siggins, Anders S. and Blanchi, Raphaele and Culvenor, Darius S. and Justin Leonard and Mashford, John S.} } @proceedings {BF-3759, title = {Exploring the capacity to adapt to climate change in the fire management sector of Victoria, Australia}, year = {2012}, pages = {138}, publisher = {IAWF}, abstract = {Like most policy sectors, climate change adaptation in wildland fire management will involve more than a tweaking of existing planning and management approaches. It requires a learning capacity to enable adaptation and possibly transformation of policies, programs, and governance. Such adaptive governance requires reflection upon underlying policy frames and informal institutions that structure a sector{\textquoteright}s governance, policies and programs, and therefore its adaptive capacity. This paper discussed research that explored underlying frames and informal institutions of the fire management sector}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Karyn Bosomworth and John Handmer and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-3100, title = {Field evaluation of two image-based wildland fire detection systems}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {47}, year = {2012}, month = {1/2012}, pages = {54 - 61}, abstract = {Rapid detection of wildfire outbreaks is a critical component of fire management because suppression activities are most effective when fires are small. One method of fire detection and location is computer analysis of images from sensors mounted on towers. In this paper we report on a trial of two image-based detection systems under operational conditions in forests and pasture in south-eastern Australia. The systems were deployed for 3 months in autumn, 2010, during which time a total of 12 experimental fires, 31 planned fires lit by public land management agencies, approximately 250 planned fires lit by private individuals, and 1 unplanned fire were recorded. Both image-based systems were able to detect and locate fires. They performed well for larger planned fires but poorly for small fires (View the MathML source area) at moderate distances (10{\textendash}20 km). System performance was compared to a human observer for a subset of fires. For these fires the human observer had a higher detection rate and shorter reporting time than the image-based systems. All methods of detection had a similar level of error for locating fires in the landscape once they had been detected. Operator skill was an important factor in the performance of all systems. Image-based fire detection could be a useful complement to other detection methods already in use in Australia.}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2011.11.001}, author = {Stuart Matthews and Sullivan, Andrew and J.S. Gould and Hurley, R.J. and Ellis, Peter and Larmour, John} } @article {BF-3467, title = {Fire behaviour modelling in semi-arid mallee-heath shrublands of southern Australia}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, year = {2012}, month = {8/2012}, abstract = {Knowledge of fire behaviour potential is necessary for proactive management of fire prone shrublands. Data from two experimental burning programs in mallee-heath shrublands in semi-arid southern Australia were used to develop models for the sustainability of fire spread, fire type, i.e., surface or crown fire, forward spread rate and flame height. The dataset comprised 61 fires burned under a wide range of weather conditions. Rates of fire spread and fireline intensity varied between 4 and 55 m min-1 and 735 and 17,200 kW m-1 respectively. Likelihood of sustained fire spread and active crown fire propagation were modelled using logistic regression analysis. Fire spread sustainability was primarily a function of litter fuel moisture content with wind speed having a secondary but still significant effect. The continuity of fine fuels close to ground level was also significant. Onset of active crowning was mostly determined by wind speed. Rate of fire spread was modelled separately for surface and crown fires through nonlinear regression analysis with wind speed, litter fuel moisture content and overstorey canopy cover as significant variables. Flame height was modelled as a function of fireline intensity. A model system to predict the full range of fire behaviour in mallee-heath shrubland is proposed relying on a combined method that links the surface and crown fire rate of spread models. This model system was evaluated against independent data from large scale prescribed burns and wildfires with encouraging results. The best models for fire-spread sustainability and active crown fire propagation predicted correctly 75\% and 79\% respectively of the fires in the evaluation dataset. Rate of spread models produced mean absolute percent errors between 53\% and 58\% with only small bias. The models have applicability in planning and conducting prescribed fire operations but can also be extended to produce first order predictions of wildfire behaviour.}, issn = {13648152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.003}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Lachlan W. McCaw and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-3247, title = { Flood risk, insurance and emergency management in Australia}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, month = {April 2012}, chapter = {20}, abstract = {The recent flooding events in Queensland in 2011 and the recent flooding occurring in New South Wales in 2012 have exemplified the existence of institutionally entrenched inadequacies within the current insurance regulatory regime. The biggest manifestation is the high penetration of inadequate insurance coverage. The consequence of inadequate insurance is economic mayhem for those who have endured property losses arising from weather-related disasters. This paper reviews the lessons from the Queensland floods (December 2010 {\textendash} February 2011) and identifies that two major issues are the cost and availability of flood cover. It is argued that if insurers assist with mitigation measures, by assisting home owners to understand and prepare for floods, they reduce the cost to insurers, and therefore of insurance, which will ultimately be a benefit for all. }, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Pages/AJEM\%20Vol\%2027/Flood-risk,-insurance-and-emergency-management-in-Australia.aspx}, author = {Rachel Anne Carter} } @proceedings {BF-3752, title = {From risk to resilience? Reframing shared responsibility in Australian disaster policy }, year = {2012}, pages = {71-74 }, publisher = {IAWF}, abstract = {An important shift is occurring in national disaster policy discourse in Australia from the language of risk to that of resilience. This shift that is likely to influence the theory and practice of community bushfire/wildfire safety. The key elements in the shift are laid out in the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, released by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in February 2011 (COAG 2011). The strategy, hereafter referred to as the {\textquoteleft}NSDR{\textquoteright}, calls for a {\textquotedblleft}whole-of-nation, resilience-based approach{\textquotedblright} (p.ii) to managing disasters. It states that {\textquotedblleft}the concept of disaster resilience builds upon rather than replaces existing strengths and arrangements{\textquotedblright} (COAG 2011, p.3) in emergency management, suggesting that it may not be asking for significant changes to existing practices. Yet it is also described as heralding a {\textquotedblleft}paradigm shift{\textquotedblright} in disaster management in this country (Wilkins 2010) and as potentially being the {\textquotedblleft}single most significant policy initiative in the field of disaster management in Australia{\textquoteright}s history{\textquotedblright} (McArdle \& Archer 2011, p.1). This raises an important question: what is so different in the NSDR{\textquoteright}s vision that warrants such claims, and what are its potential implications for community bushfire safety? ...}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {John Handmer} } @article {BF-3624, title = {Future scenarios for Australian bushfires: Report on a Bushfire CRC workshop}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, month = {July 2012}, pages = {34-40}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {A Bushfire CRC workshop on future bushfire scenarios was conducted at the Australian National University, Canberra, in November 2011. The workshop explored effects of global change on fire regimes, implications for socio-economic and environmental assets, potential mitigation strategies, and law and planning responses. These findings will be used to construct bushfire projections, and to assess implications for assets, including terrestrial carbon stocks and built assets in peri-urban environments, and their management. These analyses will provide critical input into economic evaluation of bushfires in Australian society, both currently and in the future. }, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Pages/AJEMvolume27\%20no\%203/FuturescenariosforAustralianbushfiresReportonaBushfireCRCworkshop.aspx}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Collett, Eddy and Gill, A. Malcolm and Helena Clayton and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-3136, title = {Gender matters: Applying a gendered analysis to bushfire research in Australia}, year = {2012}, institution = {RMIT}, abstract = {The study of gender and associated questions about the social construction of masculinity and femininity have become established as important elements of social science research. While gender has often been a focus in disciplines such as sociology and anthropology, the social construction of gender is now analysed in areas ranging from criminology to international political economy. The importance of gender is also recognised in the trend towards {\textquoteleft}gender mainstreaming{\textquoteright} evident in many national and international policy discourses (Walby 2005). Disaster studies adopted the use of gendered analysis quite late, however, and it was not until the late 1990s that the influential collection The Gendered Terrain of Disaster (Enarson \& Morrow 1998) was published. Since then, there has been a steady increase in international literature dealing with the relationship between gender and disaster. Australian research on bushfire has yet to make use of the insights from this literature and this discussion paper offers ways in which a gendered analysis of bushfire in Australia might be developed. There is a very limited amount of work which mentions gender in the context of bushfire in Australia (Poiner 1990; Cox 1998; Beaston \& McLennan 2005; Beaston et al. 2008; DeLaine et al. 2008; Maleta 2009; Eriksen et al. 2010) and, for the most part, gender is a peripheral rather than central theme (cf. Eriksen et al. 2010). Given the lack of available research dealing with the Australian context, this discussion paper draws on two other major areas of literature that are likely to provide the most suitable frameworks for applying gendered analyses. The first is the critical, academic literature on gender and disaster which is still rather limited in volume but has strong conceptual grounding. The second is literature on gender and rurality which is fed by the disciplines of rural sociology and gender studies. Both are relatively new areas of academic interest and feature significant research gaps which would be suitable for further study. This discussion paper aims to draw on the international literature regarding gender, disaster, masculinity and rurality and suggest ways in which insights from these areas may be used to better understand bushfire preparedness, communication, response and recovery in Australia as well as avenues for future research. The latter sections of this paper offer ways of developing a theoretical framework to understand how and why bushfire preparation, response and recovery are heavily gendered in the Australian context. This aims to move beyond simply looking at women and bushfire, and instead adopting an understanding that gender is fundamentally relational. This approach means men and masculinity must become part of the analysis as well. The paper concludes by considering how bushfires in Australia have become socially constructed as {\textquoteleft}men{\textquoteright}s business{\textquoteright}. }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/gender-matters-applying-gendered-analysis-bushfire-research-australia}, author = {Keith Toh and Richard Philips and Meagan Tyler and Peter Fairbrother and Suasan Chaplin and Bernard Mees} } @proceedings {BF-3753, title = {Getting the best bang for your buck: Ad hoc or pre-formed incident management teams?}, year = {2012}, pages = {67=68}, abstract = {An ongoing challenge for agencies managing wildfires is ensuring the effectiveness of their incident management teams (IMTs). In recent years there has been growing interest in the benefits of using pre-formed IMTs, leading to a number of agencies adopting their use. An important feature of pre-formed teams is their high levels of intra-team familiarity. The implementation of pre-formed IMTs has, in part, been based on the expectation that greater familiarity and member knowledge enables superior team performance. ...}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Peter Hayes and Omodei, Mary} } @inbook {BF-3789, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, issn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @inbook {BF-4297, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, pages = {149-170}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, isbn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @article {BF-3249, title = {Health and safety law}, journal = {Crisis Response Journal}, volume = {7}, year = {2012}, month = {June 2012}, chapter = {4}, url = {http://www.crisis-response.com/ContentsPages/crj8.1.contents.pdf}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @proceedings {BF-3359, title = {Hillslope erosion and post-fire sediment trapping at Mount Bold, South Australia}, year = {2012}, month = {June 2012}, address = {Banf, Canada}, abstract = {Successful placement of sediment traps requires an understanding of how hillslope morphology influences erosion. Following the 2007 Mount Bold wildfire, in South Australia, a 1 in 5 year rainfall event resulted in the failure of many sediment traps due to substantial sediment movement within the reservoir reserve. This study assesses how hillslope morphology can influence post-fire surface erosion and the subsequent appropriate placement of sediment traps. Erosion pins and sediment traps were used at five different sites to measure hillslope surface change and trapped sediment volumes. Terrestrial laser scanning was used to model surface change where slope gradients are 1:2 or greater. Surface change was assessed in relation to slope gradient, slope length, cross-slope curvature, hillslope position and fire severity. The results suggested a threshold for substantial increased sediment yield at slope gradients of 1:2. The findings also suggested that concave cross-slope curvatures were associated with significantly larger amounts of sediment movement.}, url = {http://www.iahs.info/redbooks/a354/iahs_354_0042.pdf}, author = {Morris, Rowena and Deirdre Dragovich and Bertram Ostendorf} } @article {BF-3339, title = {Householder decision-making under imminent wildfire threat: stay and defend or leave?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {online early}, year = {2012}, month = {July 2012}, abstract = {The study examined aspects of decision-making that distinguish between those who stay and defend their property and those who leave for an assumed safer location when a community comes under imminent threat from a severe wildfire. The data were obtained from field interviews with 49 survivors of the Murrindindi wildfire (Victoria, Australia, 7 February 2009) in which 38 people perished and that destroyed the small township of Marysville. Uncertainty about the level of threat was a major feature of the decision-making context in the period immediately preceding the impact of the fire. The majority of those who stayed and defended did so because they were committed to this plan of action. For most of those who left, the action of leaving was triggered by realisation of the severe threat posed by the intensity or location of the fire.}, doi = {10.1071/WF11061}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary} } @article {BF-3097, title = {Identification of physically demanding tasks performed during bushfire suppression by Australian rural firefighters}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {43}, year = {2012}, month = {3/2012}, pages = {435 - 441}, abstract = {Purpose To identify and characterize the physically demanding tasks undertaken during multi-day wildfire (known as bushfire in Australia) suppression by Australian rural firefighters. Methods During semi-structured group interviews, thirty-one experienced male firefighters reviewed 53 firefighting tasks that could be performed during tanker-based bushfire suppression. Participants were asked to nominate the most physically demanding tasks and then define their typical frequencies, durations, operational importance and the dominant actions and activity types in each task. Results Seven tasks were identified as physically demanding. They were further categorized into three hose and four handtool (e.g., rakehoe) related activities. These tasks were assessed as moderately important to critical and were thought to occur less than one up to 700 times in a four-month bushfire {\textquoteleft}season{\textquoteright}. Each task{\textquoteright}s duration was estimated to last approximately 2{\textendash}30 min depending on the task. Dominant actions were carry, drag, dig/rake actions in seven, three and four of the demanding tasks, respectively. {\textquoteleft}Strength-endurance{\textquoteright} was the dominant activity type for five of the seven tasks. Conclusion Seven fireground tasks, three using a hose and four using handtools were classified as physically demanding by incumbent firefighters. The combination of hose and handtool work indicates that the tanker-based bushfire suppression tactics used by Australian rural firefighters appears to be a hybrid of structural and wildfire firefighting techniques and may require a dedicated physiological analyses before the job demands for these firefighters can be quantified.}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2011.06.018}, author = {Phillips, Matthew and Payne, W and Cara Lord and Kevin Netto and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3786, title = {Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11103.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Karen J. King and Gill, A. Malcolm and Moore, AD} } @article {BF-4291, title = {Incorporating Vertical Winds into PHOENIX RapidFire{\textquoteright}s Ember Dispersal Model}, year = {2012}, month = {12/2012}, abstract = {PHOENIX RapidFire is a fire simulation model developed in Australia as part of the Bushfire CRC. One unique aspect of the modelling process is the way spotfires are modelled and incorporated into fire spread. Part of the spotting process requires modelling of ember release, transport and spotfire ignition. In the first iteration of spotfire modelling, surface wind (10 m in the open) was used to estimate the distance and spread of embers falling ahead of a fire. However, it is acknowledged that upper-winds usually differ in speed and direction from surface winds. It was therefore thought that that fire modelling could be improved by using the wind speed and direction data produced by the numerical weather prediction models. PHOENIX was modified to incorporate multi-level wind data, however, the forecast data had an uncorrected bias that results in incorrect ember transport modelling results. The lack of systematic, high resolution and comprehensive upper-wind observations makes bias correction and fire model testing impossible at the current time. It was therefore not possible to develop an improved ember transport model for PHOENIX. This report describes the process and results obtained from this research. In the end, a version of PHOENIX that can use a single layer of upper-wind data as input was developed. This will allow some theoretical testing of PHOENIX, but cannot be used for operational fire predictions with the currently available data.}, author = {Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G. and Thomas Duff} } @article {BF-4211, title = {Information systems implications for information flow between layers in emergency management coordination}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, abstract = {This report addresses the first of three information systems deliverables contained within the research project Organising for Effective Incident Management. The focus here is on better understanding the work performed at regional and state levels of incident so that the implications for information systems supporting that work can be addressed. The report commences with a framework for understanding work activity in complex socio-technical domains and then conducts an analysis of the kinds of decisions made and challenges faced at state and regional levels. It then outlines a number of implications that information systems would need to address in order to support the work that people undertake in those state and regional roles. Two organisational surveys were used as the main sources of data collection. In the first organisational survey 206 experienced personnel across a range of jurisdictions and states in Australia and New Zealand provided an outline of their activities and challenges in their main roles at a recent incident. This yielded comments from participants working at state/national levels (n=30); regional levels (n=49) and local levels (n=58) of incident management. For the purposes of this report the 79 participants working at regional and state/national levels made 120 comments and these have been included in the data analysis. A second organisational survey, undertaken by the Office for the Fire Services Commissioner in Victoria, was also used because it provides a more detailed case study of the information needs of the various stakeholders involved at state and regional levels in one multi-jurisdictional location. The data reported here is a recoding and re-analysis of components of that survey. Victorian participants were asked to nominate the role they most commonly perform in an incident and to list the three most important decisions/actions they make in that role. Only personnel who were engaged in work at a state or regional level were included in this analysis (state n=80; regional n=23) and they yielded 160 comments. The comments from the two organisational surveys were analysed and grouped into five themes, each with sub-themes. }, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-3160, title = {Issues in Community Bushfire Safety: Analyses of Interviews Conducted by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Task Force}, year = {2012}, month = {March 2012}, abstract = {1. Immediately following the 7 February 2009 Victorian bushfires the Bushfire CRC organised a multi-agency Task Force to investigate and report on four aspects of the fires: arson (in collaboration with Victoria Police); fire behaviour; building survivability and infrastructure; and human behaviour and community safety. This last involved interviewing a cross-section of survivors about their experiences. 2. A total of 552 field interviews were conducted, resulting in 496 usable and informative interview transcripts. The transcripts were analysed following coding of aspects of survivors{\textquoteright} accounts. This report describes findings in relation to issues of householder bushfire knowledge, planning, preparedness, decisions, actions, threats, and hazards. 3. The aim of the report is to inform fire and emergency services agencies about survivors{\textquoteright} beliefs, plans actions, and experiences which may have implications for current community bushfire safety policies, priorities, programs, and practices. 4. Survivors{\textquoteright} accounts covered eight fire complexes: Beechworth, Bendigo, Bunyip, Churchill, Horsham, Kilmore, Murrindindi, and Narre Warren. Of the 496 transcripts, 360 were from residents of isolated rural properties, 99 were from residents of rural towns, and 37 were from residents of bushland-urban interface (suburban) streets. 5. Bushfire survival plans: It is estimated that 81\% of those who planned to stay and defend had undertaken more than minimal long term preparation to do so, while 34\% of those whose plan was to leave safely had undertaken more than minimal long term preparation to do so. Overall, 6\% of survivors planned to {\textquoteleft}wait and see{\textquoteright} before committing to a course of action; 9\% had an unclear household bushfire plan; 70\% of bushland-urban interface survivors had no household bushfire plan. 6. Actions on the day: Of the 496 survivors, 8\% were not at home on 7 February 2009 by chance; 2\% were not at home by choice to be somewhere safer; 28\% left safely before impact of a fire; 16\% left under hazardous conditions; 36\% stayed and defended their home successfully; 9\% stayed and attempted to defend but were unsuccessful; 2\% sheltered in place passively. 7. Overall, less than one-third of those interviewed had undertaken a high level of long term preparation to implement their household bushfire survival plan. A little more than half of the bushland-urban interface residents had undertaken no preparation. 8. Although many of those interviewed did not provide information on awareness of fire danger weather, 50\% of those who did evidenced a high level of awareness of fire danger weather on 7 February 2009. However, these were all residents of isolated rural properties or towns: almost half of the bushland-urban residents were not aware of the predicted fire danger weather in relation to a potential threat to their property from a bushfire. 9. On five indicators of bushfire {\textquoteleft}readiness{\textquoteright} (long term preparation, awareness of fire danger weather, physical readiness for a possible bushfire, awareness of an approaching fire, and readiness to act upon knowledge of an imminent bushfire threat) residents of isolated rural properties described higher overall readiness levels than did residents of rural towns and bushland-urban interface residents{\textemdash}the latter described very low levels of readiness to survive a bushfire. 10. It seems that most residents of isolated rural properties had a reasonable level of awareness of bushfire risk in general, and had personalised this and undertaken long term property preparation to defend against bushfire which may have been adequate for {\textquoteleft}typical{\textquoteright} low to moderate intensity bushfires. 11. Most residents of bushland-urban interface dwellings did not understand themselves to be at-risk of bushfires, notwithstanding their proximity to bush or grassland. Residents of rural towns varied: some had an understanding of their risk similar to those who resided on isolated rural properties, some had an understanding similar to bushland-interface residents in relation to bushfire risk. Others had bushfire risk understandings intermediate between these. 12. There is some indication that those interviewees who stated an expectation that they would receive an official warning that their property was under threat, and/or that they would be given firefighting assistance had lower levels of general readiness to survive bushfires. 13. The most immediately useful sources of information for residents under bushfire threat were cues from the environment: smoke, flames, embers, sounds. 14. Most of those whose bushfire plan was to leave did so. Most of those who planned to stay and defend did so{\textemdash}however, 20\% decided to leave instead when they became aware of the intensity and/or proximity of the fire. Most of those whose {\textquoteleft}plan{\textquoteright} was to wait and see left, as did the majority of those who had no plan and most of those whose plan was unclear. 15. Most (80\%) of the homes which were defended actively survived, while 52\% of the homes not actively defended survived. 16. There was no compelling evidence that house survival was related to level of long term property preparation. 17. Compared with those who left, those who stayed and defended described higher levels of bushfire readiness in the form of: long term preparation; general knowledge of bushfires; awareness of predicted fire danger weather; physical readiness for a possible bushfire on the day; and awareness of an approaching fire. They were also less likely to report expecting a warning from authorities that their properties would be threatened by a bushfire. 18. Overall, those who stayed and defended were exposed to considerably higher levels of threat to life. However, 8\% of those who left were exposed to severe or extreme levels of threat when forced to take last resort shelter as a result of leaving at the last minute. 19. The major determinant of residents{\textquoteright} decisions to stay and defend was a prior commitment to this course of action, coupled with a belief that their preparations were adequate and that they were capable of defending successfully. For most of those who left, the decision to leave was a complex mix of neither intending nor preparing to defend, and triggering by information about: the proximity and intensity of the fire, the perceived threat posed by the fire, and concern for the safety of family members. 20. Almost two-thirds of those who stayed and defended reported that their efforts were compromised to a greater or a lesser degree by equipment failure{\textemdash}involving mostly water and power supply. Three quarters had no back-up plan in the event that defence failed and the house burned. 21. About one in five of those on their property on the day reported that the safety of pets and/or livestock was a factor in their decisions and actions. 22. One quarter of those on their property on the day indicated that a lack of official information and warnings about the fire potentially exposed them to greater risk. 23. It seems that many residents who choose to stay and defend are likely to: underestimate the potential severity of a bushfire attack; overlook vulnerabilities of the house structure; not take into account possible failure of equipment and physical capabilities; and not prepare for survival in the event that defence is unsuccessful and the house burns. 24. It seems that bushfire survival plans to leave safely are difficult for many at-risk householders to prepare for, commit to, and implement. Few are likely to relocate to a place of safety before there is some indication of an actual bushfire threat (not just a prediction of a total fire ban day), and many are unlikely to leave in the absence of a trigger event which leads them to conclude that their property is likely to come under attack and it is {\textquoteleft}time to leave{\textquoteright}. It should be noted that that many of these findings based on survivors{\textquoteright} accounts correspond closely with Key findings concerning the bushfire fatalities reported by J. Handmer, S. O{\textquoteright}Neil, and D. Killalea in their report to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/issues-community-bushfire-safety-analyses-interviews-conducted-2009-victorian-bushfires-re}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary} } @article {BF-3246, title = { Mainstreaming fire and emergency management across legal and policy sectors.}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, month = {April 2012}, chapter = {14}, abstract = {This paper reports on a research project, funded by the Bushfire CRC and conducted at the Australian National University, jointly by the ANU College of Law and the Fenner School of Environment and Society. {\textquoteleft}Mainstreaming Fire and Emergency Management across Legal and Policy Sectors: Joint Research and Policy Learning{\textquoteright} is looking at the impact of law and policy on emergency and fire management. This paper argues that an absence of clearly defined goals in emergency management policy inhibits our ability to make decisions on what are acceptable trade-offs and makes it impossible to know when Emergency Management goals have been achieved. The paper reports on the research conducted so far and identifies the next steps in the research program. }, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Documents/WEMA\%20Vol27No1_Eburn.PDF}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} } @article {BF-4283, title = {Meteorological dynamics in a fire environment; a case study of the Layman prescribed burn in Western Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal}, volume = {62}, year = {2012}, month = {09/2012}, pages = {127-142}, chapter = {127}, abstract = {From time to time, bushfires exhibit fire behaviour that was never anticipated in the prevailing environmental conditions. The Layman fuel-reduction burn, in scenic southwest Western Australia, was one such fire. The burn was ignited in mid-October 2010 in benign weather conditions. Late morning on the day following ignition, fire activity escalated rapidly; a convection column developed with a deep vertical circulation that extended from the surface to a height of 4 km. The ensuing intense fire with tall flames caused extensive crown scorch and defoliation, and resulted in concerns about the safety of rural communities adjoining the planned burn. The observations and meteorological model data indicate that the intense fire activity was driven by a combination of meteorological processes not routinely assessed in fire environments. Low-level sea breeze convergence in the wind field, combined with potential instability in the presence of FireCAPE, entrainment of dry air from aloft desiccating already climatologically dry fuels and vertical circulation on a frontal change were all present. The dramatic development of the Layman burn shows how meteorological processes not currently embedded in fire science may produce an environment conducive to intense fire activity. The ways in which fire managers might incorporate innovative meteorological products identified in this paper in order to mitigate against such events in the future are discussed.}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2012/peace.pdf}, author = {Mika Peace and Lachlan W. McCaw and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-3787, title = {Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11023.htm}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Hutley, LB and Garry D. Cook and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stefan Maier and Roxburgh, Stephen and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Damian J. Barrett and Keith, H and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Owen Price and Williams, RJ} } @article {BF-3970, title = {Modelling the probability of Australian grassfires escaping initial attack to aid deployment decisions}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {22}, year = {2012}, month = {11/2012}, chapter = {459}, abstract = {Most grassfires that occur in southern Australia are contained to small areas by local suppression resources. Those that are not require extra resources from neighbouring districts. Identifying these fires at the start of initial attack can prompt early resource requests so that resources arrive earlier when they can more effectively assist with containment. This study uses operational data collected from Australian grassfires that used ground tankers and aircraft for suppression. Variables were limited to those available when the first situation report is provided to incident controllers and included weather parameters, resource response times, slope, curing state, pasture condition and estimated fire area at initial attack. Logistic regression and classification trees were used to identify grassfires likely to escape initial attack by (a) becoming large (final area >=100 ha), (b) being of long duration (containment time >=4 h) or (c) either or both of these. These fires would benefit from having more resources deployed to them than are normally available. The best models used initial fire area and Grassland Fire Danger Index as predictor variables. Preliminary operational decision guides developed from classification trees could be used by fire managers to make quick assessments of the need for extra resources at early stages of a fire.}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF12019.htm}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-4294, title = {PHOENIX RapidFire 4.0 Convection and Ember Dispersal Model}, year = {2012}, month = {12/2012}, abstract = { PHOENIX RapidFire is unique in the way it models and incorporates the spotting process in bushfires. There are three main components to the spotting process modelled: lofting, transport, and spotfire ignition. The method of modelling these three processes is described. Lofting is related to the convective strength of the fire and the amount of available ember material, transport is related to wind speed and direction, and spotfire ignition is related to the available fine fuel on the ground and its moisture content. An absence of reliable ember transport and spotfire data has necessitated an empirical approach using the Black Saturday fires in Victoria for model development. As a result, there may be some aspects of the spotting process not well captured in PHOENIX, but to date, the results on new fires have been encouraging. The effective rate of spread of bushfires can be a factor of two or three times greater if the spotting process is well developed compared with a fire, burning under generally similar conditions, but without spotting contributing to the effective rate of spread. Being able to effectively model the spotting process has dramatically increased our ability to model bushfires in eucalypt forests. Modelling the conditions associated with the spotting process has also improved our ability to model potential house loss.}, author = {Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G. and Thomas Duff} } @article {BF-4293, title = {PHOENIX RapidFire 4.0{\textquoteright}s Convective Plume Model}, year = {2012}, month = {12/2012}, abstract = {Bushfires are a 3-dimensional phenomenon with significant interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. Complex coupled fire-atmosphere models have been produced and give amazingly realistic results, however the computational complexity means that they take many times real-time to run, even on super computers, and are therefore restricted to small areas and short periods of time. PHOENIX RapidFire is primarily a 2-dimensional fire model and only takes a few minutes to run fires in excess of 100,000 ha. This report describes how PHOENIX RapidFire has been developed to include elements of plume development and ember transport resulting in spot fires. This was done to try and capture some of the important 3-dimensional aspects of bushfires without large computational overheads. Development of the plume rise and spotting components of PHOENIX has been done with the knowledge of some of the key thermodynamic processes, but a number of assumptions have been made. Validation of the plume rise and spotting model is difficult because there are no detailed observations recorded for the plume, embers, spotfires and upper-level winds. Ground-based weather radar data was found to be a useful validation dataset for the plume model. The plume model in PHOENIX was calibrated against weather radar data recorded on Black Saturday, 2009. Early indications are that there has been a significant improvement in the simulation of the Black Saturday fires with the incorporation of the plume and spotting models. Further testing will be required to fully understand the limitations of the model.}, author = {Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G. and Thomas Duff} } @article {BF-3262, title = {Predicting fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forest in southern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {280}, year = {2012}, month = {9/2012}, pages = {120 - 131}, abstract = {This paper describes the development of two empirical models to predict the potential spread of an established line of fire in dry eucalypt forest with a shrubby understorey. These models use inputs of fine fuel moisture, wind speed, near-surface fuel height, and either a numerical fuel hazard score or a descriptive fuel rating for the surface and near-surface fuel. A model to predict flame height from rate of spread and elevated fuel height is also presented as a guide to suppression difficulty. Models were developed using data from a series of simultaneous experimental fires in fuels of different fuel ages ranging from 2 to 22 years since last fire. They were tested against data from independent experimental fires and well documented wildfires that were assigned reliability ratings for fuel, weather and spread rate. Models performed reliably when the reliability of wildfire data ratings for fuel and weather were also high. Models predict the potential rate of spread and are likely to over-predict the spread of fires starting from a point ignition during the early stages of development when the headfire is less than 120 m wide. Existing guides should be used for prescribed burning operations based on point ignition, and the models described here can be used to predict rate of spread from line ignition. Predictions from the new models will be more reliable when rate of spread is averaged over an interval of 30 min or longer. The reliability will be low when compared to observations made over short time intervals, at specific points in the topography, or when very large fires interact to produce wind speeds that are very different to the ambient wind in the open.}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.012}, author = {Cheney, NP and J.S. Gould and Lachlan W. McCaw and Wendy R. Anderson} } @article {BF-3101, title = {Pre-shift fluid intake: Effect on physiology, work and drinking during emergency wildfire fighting}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {43}, year = {2012}, month = {5/2012}, pages = {532 - 540}, abstract = {Abstract Wildfire fighters are known to report to work in a hypohydrated state, which may compromise their work performance and health. Purpose To evaluate whether ingesting a bolus of fluid before the shift had any effect on firefighters{\textquoteright} fluid consumption, core temperature, or the time they spent in high heart rate and work activity zones when fighting emergency wildfires. Methods Thirty-two firefighters were divided into non-bolus (AD) and pre-shift drinking bolus (PS, 500 ml water) groups. Results Firefighters began work hypohydrated as indicated by urine colour, specific gravity and plasma osmolality (Posm) results. Post-shift, firefighters were classified as euhydrated according to Posm and hypohydrated by urinary markers. No significant differences existed between the drinking groups in pre- or post-shift hydration status, total fluid intake, activity, heart rate or core temperature. Conclusion Consuming a bolus of fluid, pre-shift provided no benefit over non-consumption as both groups had consumed equivalent ad libitum volumes of fluid, 2.5 h into the shift. No benefits of bolus consumption were observed in firefighter activity, heart rate response or core temperature response across the shift in the mild weather conditions experienced. Ad libitum drinking was adequate to facilitate rehydration in firefighters upon completion of their emergency firefighting work shift.}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2011.08.007}, author = {Raines, Jenni and Rodney Snow and Aaron Petersen and Jack Harvey and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3174, title = {Procrustes based metrics for spatial validation and calibration of two-dimensional perimeter spread models: A case study considering fire}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {160}, year = {2012}, month = {7/2012}, pages = {110 - 117}, abstract = {A number of phenomena in natural systems exhibit spread from a point source facilitated by a transport vector. Such occurrences are an important focus of landscape management, and include fires, wind driven disease and pollutant spills. Two-dimensional dynamic spread models are used to simulate the impacts of such events, determine risks and optimise responses. These models produce spatially coherent outputs that are not easily verified through traditional regression approaches. Validation of predictions is an essential part of model development and is necessary for the improvement of predictive performance. Current methods of evaluation are rarely systematic and are typically undertaken through subjective comparison of simulation outputs with observed features. There are few methods suitable for the objective analysis of freeform spread patterns, and it is proposed that a pseudo-landmark approach be adopted to allow the use of landmark based analysis methods. Vector driven spread patterns exhibit a degree of spatial structure, with distinct origin points and elongate shapes resulting from the predominant vector trajectory. These can be used as references to generate analogous landmarks for perimeter comparison. To describe differences, three indices derived from Procrustes analysis are proposed. These provide metrics to evaluate differences in perimeter orientation, size and shape. A case study simulating wildfire spread was used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. It was found to be effective for the description of perimeter differences and has potential for the validation and calibration of spread models. A number of assumptions were recognised and limitations in assigning pseudo-landmarks considered.}, issn = {01681923}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.03.002}, author = {Thomas Duff and Chong, Derek and Peter Taylor and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {BF-3201, title = {Recriminations follow natural disasters}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/recriminations-follow-natural-disasters/story-e6frg97x-1226313942908}, author = {Michael Eburn and Anthony Bergin} } @article {BF-3118, title = {Reframing responsibility-sharing for bushfire risk management in Australia after Black Saturday}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2012}, month = {01/2012}, pages = {1 - 15}, abstract = {In the context of risk, the concept of responsibility incorporates the notion that certain parties have a prospective obligation to undertake actions to manage risk. However, differences in judgements about which parties are responsible for which aspects of risk management often lead to social conflict. This paper uses the heuristic of a {\textquoteleft}responsibility continuum for risk management{\textquoteright} to highlight how judgements of the obligations of different parties to manage risk are underpinned by particular ways of framing responsibility-sharing. It then uses the heuristic to examine the case of a Royal Commission enquiry into Australia{\textquoteright}s deadliest bushfire (wildfire) event, known as Black Saturday. It argues that the Royal Commission reframed responsibility-sharing away from an emphasis on the self-reliance of at-risk communities towards a greater degree of responsibility for government emergency management agencies. This is particularly the case when fire conditions are extreme and where vulnerable people are at risk. This position runs counter to an international trend in policy towards placing greater responsibility for risk management on at-risk communities. However, the Commission{\textquoteright}s analysis is strong for the distribution of responsibility across government and between government and communities, but is weaker across the government{\textendash}private sector interface and where the factors underlying vulnerability are concerned.}, issn = {1747-7891}, doi = {10.1080/17477891.2011.608835}, author = {John Handmer} } @article {BF-3183, title = {The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur{\textquoteright}s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram{\textquoteright}s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale}, issn = {0921-030X}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-012-0156-y}, author = {Sarah Harris and Wendy R. Anderson and Kilinc, Musa and Fogarty, Liam} } @article {BF-3587, title = {Report on the French {\textendash} Australian/New Zealand Collaborative Research Exchange}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/report-french-\%E2\%80\%93-australiannew-zealand-collaborative-research-exchange}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-3124, title = {Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {7}, year = {2012}, month = {01/2012}, pages = {014018}, abstract = {The 2009 {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia{\textquoteright}s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy {\textquoteleft}Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early{\textquoteright} ({\textquoteleft}Stay or Go{\textquoteright}), plus an examination of the Commission{\textquoteright}s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014018}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Neill, Saffron J and John Handmer} } @article {BF-3185, title = {Simple models for stomatal conductance derived from a process model: cross-validation against sap flux data.}, journal = {Plant, Cell \& Environment}, year = {2012}, month = {04/2012}, pages = {no - no}, abstract = {Representation of stomatal physiology in models of plant-atmosphere gas exchange is minimal, and direct application of process-based models is limited by difficulty of parameter estimation. We derived simple models of stomatal conductance from a recent process-based model, and cross-validated them against measurements of sap flux (176-365 days in length) in 36 individual trees of two age classes for two Eucalyptus species across seven sites in the mountains of southeastern Australia. The derived models-which are driven by irradiance and evaporative demand and have 2-4 parameters that represent sums and products of biophysical parameters in the process model-reproduced a median 83-89\% of observed variance in half-hourly and diurnally averaged sap flux, and performed similarly whether fitted using a random sample of all data or using one month of data from spring or autumn. Our simple models are an advance in predicting plant water use because their parameters are transparently related to reduced processes and properties, enabling easy accommodation of improved knowledge about how those parameters respond to environmental change and differ among species.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-3040.2012.02515.x}, author = {Buckley, TN and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {bnh-1788, title = {The Stress of Firefighting Report}, year = {2012}, month = {08/2012}, abstract = {

Fire and rescue staff routinely endure significant psychological and environmental stress exposure on the job. While much has been done to improve understanding of the physiological effects of exposure to these conditions, little has been done to quantify the inflammatory stress response that firefighters are exposed to during wildfire suppression. Therefore the aim of the present study was to explore whether firefighters experienced a change in inflammatory markers following one day, and across two days of wildfire suppression tasks. Twelve male fire-fighters participated in two consecutive days of live-fire prescribed burn operations in Ngarkat National Park, South Australia. Typical work tasks included lighting burns, patrolling containment lines, supressing spot fires, and operating vehicles. A number of the inflammatory markers changed significantly across the course of a shift and several presented with an attenuated response across the second day. This finding implies that there was a compounding effect of repeated exposure to these stressors which could have considerable implications for managing fire-fighters health and wellbeing over a multi-day campaign. Further research is required to see which fire ground stressor, or combination of stressors is causing these changes in the inflammatory markers across consecutive work shifts.

}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-6-2}, author = {Alexander Wolkow and Luana Main and Raines, Jenni and Paul Della Gatta and Rodney Snow and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3248, title = { This special legal edition of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management in context}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, chapter = {5}, abstract = {It is an honour to provide the overview of these papers in this special edition. The topics raised in these papers are crucial to the nation and to the role of emergency management. They delve into the depths of matters needing consideration and understanding. These papers represent research, funded by the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), to address aspects of mainstreaming fire and emergency management across legal and policy sectors. Three papers, Carter (La Trobe), Eburn and Dovers (ANU) and Handmer and McLennan (RMIT University) are written by key researchers in this area. The other three, by Biggs, Fetchik and McNamara, are written by students who took part in Australian Disaster Law, a postgraduate law unit, designed and coordinated by Michael Eburn, and offered by the ANU College of Law in 2011. Offered as part of various Masters programmes and as part of the Juris Doctor (a postgraduate law degree), this unit, and these papers, are practical demonstrations of the work being conducted by the Bushfire CRC and the ANU to encourage new researchers to think about how law and policy impact upon Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience. }, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Documents/WEMA\%20Vol27No1_Thornton.PDF}, author = {RP Thornton} } @article {BF-4213, title = {Training Pathways for Effective Emergency Management Coordination above the IMT}, year = {2012}, abstract = {This report is a response to the question: {\textquotedblleft}How might we best train and educate personnel in the most effective emergency management coordination above the IMT?{\textquotedblright} This question is considered by examining the human factors literature in this area, current formal and informal training pathways and considering them in the context of the types of skills and knowledge recognised as relevant to emergency management coordination. In making this assessment it is clear that we need to acknowledge the improvements in contextual learning, human factors and leadership education that have already occurred within the industry, and use these as opportunities to also enhance the development of those in senior coordination/leadership positions. It is also necessary to acknowledge that the solutions to any gaps in this area have already been identified via reports from the Bushfire CRC, AFAC and other organisations. From this perspective the necessary training pathways are known and the materials needed to build the training initiatives are largely available. Given that the pathways are known, an initial reaction may be to presume that there has been a lack of opportunity, resources or political will (or any combination of these) to move in this direction. However, experience with other industries such as aviation, rail, healthcare or maritime transport suggests that training development in this area is very much a journey. This journey is marked by a progressive maturing of the industry{\textquoteright}s own understanding of the value of this type of training, and that understanding only tends to occur when people see positive results from the training in the operational domain. These results take time, and explain the long term approach needed to reach a significant level of maturity in this area. Emergency management agencies are, in relative terms, at the early stages of this journey. }, author = {Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-3205, title = {Understanding the regeneration niche: Microsite attributes and recruitment of eucalypts in dry forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {269}, year = {2012}, month = {4/2012}, pages = {229 - 238}, abstract = {Lack of eucalypt recruitment is a key factor in the decline of forest and woodland remnants in low rainfall agricultural regions in Australia. Key to effective management of these forests is an understanding of the requirements and conditions that promote seed germination and seedling establishment (recruitment niche) and the persistence of lignotuberous sprouts (juvenile persistence niche). Recruitment is limited by the availability of safe microsites that are suitable for the germination and establishment of seedlings. The objective of this study was to investigate the microsites of established eucalypt seedlings and lignotuberous sprouts in healthy dry forests burnt in the previous 2{\textendash}6 years in the Tasmanian Midlands. The recruitment niche differed significantly to the juvenile persistence niche while the juvenile persistence niche had characteristics similar to the general forest floor. Seedling microsites were characterised by: canopy gaps and ashbeds (95\% of seedlings surveyed); a predominantly northerly aspect (75\% of microsites); over 220{\textdegree} shelter with the average distance from a sheltering object being less than 30 cm and 80\% of seedlings being sheltered by coarse woody debris; soil that was significantly softer (3.8 vs. 5.0 kgf/m2) and less water repellent (moderate vs. severe repellency) than the forest floor; and low cover of grass. These characteristics of seedling safe sites all affect moisture availability. Our results have important implications for the management of dry forest in order to facilitate eucalypt recruitment and persistence, suggesting the need for retention of coarse woody debris and the judicious use of fire.}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.12.021}, author = {Tanya G. Bailey and Davidson, N. J. and Close, DC} } @article {bnh-2363, title = {The use of the 1:100 year standard in the United States: insights for Australia?}, journal = {Australian Environment Review}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, pages = {pp. 337-346}, author = {Caroline Wenger and Karen Hussey and James Pittock} } @article {BF-3143, title = {Validating {\textquoteleft}fit for duty{\textquoteright} tests for Australian volunteer fire fighters suppressing bushfires}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {43}, year = {2012}, month = {1/2012}, pages = {191 - 197}, abstract = {Introduction This study compared fire fighter{\textquoteright}s work-rates and performance between the Pack Hike Test (PHT), Field Walk Test (FWT) and critical bushfire suppression tasks. Methods Nineteen volunteer fire fighters undertook the PHT, whilst a further 11 also performed the FWT. All 30 fire fighters completed four critical tasks. Physical, physiological and subjective ratings were measured during tasks and tests. Results Peak and mean heart rate during the Hose Drag was lower than during the FWT. Mean velocities for the PHT and FWT were higher than in all tasks except Hose Drag. Finishing times in the PHT and FWT were strongly correlated with finishing times for three and four of the critical tasks. Conclusions The PHT and FWT may be valid fit for duty tests for Australian rural fire fighters though the clear differences between the tests and some tasks may prompt fire agencies to consider other tests that more accurately simulate bushfire suppression work.}, issn = {00036870}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2011.05.003}, author = {Cara Lord and Kevin Netto and Aaron Petersen and Nichols, David and Drain, Jace and Phillips, Matthew and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3336, title = {Visions of Sharing Responsibility for Disaster Resilience - Account of a multi-stakeholder workshop}, year = {2012}, month = {March 2012}, institution = {RMIT}, abstract = {This one-day workshop examined the idea and practice of sharing responsibility for disaster resilience. The idea of {\textquoteleft}shared responsibility{\textquoteright} is shaping emergency management thinking in Australia. It has gained significant policy traction following the Victorian 2009 Bushfires Royal Commission and the release of the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience. Similar ideas have been circulating in other sectors for some time. Yet it is not clear what the idea really means or what its implications are for policy and practice. The workshop, held on Thursday 29th March 2012, aimed to address two general questions: {\textbullet} First, the idea: what does the idea of {\textquoteleft}shared responsibility{\textquoteright} mean, and what are its implications? {\textbullet} Second, the practice: is it a useful policy concept, and if yes what needs to be done to implement it, and what could undermine it? The workshop was hosted by RMIT{\textquoteright}s Centre for Risk and Community Safety (CRaCS) in the School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences. It was organised on behalf of the Bushfire CRC and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility{\textquoteright}s (NCCARF) Emergency Management Network. Carbon credits were purchased to offset the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the event. This public account of the workshop has been prepared so that others who were unable to attend the workshop can also see the range of issues and perspectives that were voiced at the workshop.}, author = {Karyn Bosomworth and Adriana Keating and Tarn Kruger and Briony Towers} } @article {BF-3098, title = {Vulnerability to bushfires in rural Australia: A case study from East Gippsland, Victoria}, journal = {Journal of Rural Studies}, year = {2012}, month = {1/2012}, abstract = {This paper investigates the nature and causes of vulnerability to bushfires in the Wulgulmerang district of East Gippsland, Victoria, in south-eastern Australia. In 2003 bushfires devastated the small population of this isolated farming district, destroying homes, agricultural assets and public infrastructure. The fires also adversely affected the health, livelihoods and social lives of many local people. The paper examines: (i) how and why people were exposed to hazards during the bushfires; and (ii) how and why people were differentially capable of coping and adapting to the fires{\textquoteright} impacts. Qualitative methods were primarily used to investigate these questions, including semi-structured interviews with residents and landholders of the district and others who responded to the fires in an official or unofficial capacity. Vulnerability is shown to arise from the circumstances of people{\textquoteright}s everyday lives, which are shaped by factors both within and beyond their control. Local pressures and challenges {\textendash} such as drought, declining farm incomes, depopulation, and the inaccessibility of essential services {\textendash} are shown to increase people{\textquoteright}s exposure to hazards and reduce their capacities to cope and adapt. The paper demonstrates the fundamental importance of sustainable livelihoods and regional economic vitality to the long-term goal of vulnerability reduction.}, doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2011.11.002}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer and Mercer, David} } @proceedings {BF-3756, title = {When residents come under imminent wildfire threat, what aspects of decision making distinguish those who stay and defend their home from those who leave?}, year = {2012}, pages = {87-89}, publisher = {IAWF}, abstract = {bushfires (wildfires) occurring on days of extreme fire danger following long periods of low rainfall (Haynes et al 2008). A review of fatalities in disaster-level bushfires suggested that: (1) most deaths occurred when residents fled at the last minute and resulted from either vehicle crash or radiant heat; and (2) many who died in or near houses were elderly or otherwise impaired (Handmer \& Tibbits, 2005). In its 2005 Position Statement the Australasian Fire Authorities Council concluded that: {\textquotedblleft}By extinguishing small ignitions, people of adequate mental, emotional, and physical fitness, equipped with appropriate skills and basic resources can save a building that would otherwise be lost to fire{\textquotedblright} (p 6). These considerations led to a general Australian fire agency community safety policy message to residents at-risk of bushfires to: {\textquoteleft}prepare, stay and defend or leave early{\textquoteright} (Tibbits et al. 2008).}, url = {http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/3rd\%20Human\%20Dimensions\%20Conference\%20Proceedings\%20-\%20FINAL.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary} } @article {BF-3788, title = {The World-Wide {\textquoteright}Wildfire{\textquoteright} Problem}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/10-2213.1}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-3179, title = {Annual Report 2010-11: First year of the Urban and Regional Planning for Risk and Uncertainty project}, year = {2011}, abstract = {This annual report on the Urban and Regional Planning for Risk and Uncertainty project provides an overview of key activities from the first year of the research project, from its commencement on 30 September 2010 through to 31 October 2011.}, author = {Kate Sullivan and Barbara Norman} } @proceedings {BF-3042, title = {Assessing Potential House Losses Using PHOENIX RapidFire}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-74-86-assessing-potential-house-losses}, author = {Tolhurst, K.G. and Chong, Derek} } @article {BF-3088, title = {Behind the flaming zone: Predicting woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {261}, year = {2011}, month = {6/2011}, pages = {2049 - 2067}, abstract = {Pre-fire woody fuel (diameter > 0.6 cm) structure and its consumption by fire were measured at experimental/prescribed fires and high intensity wildfires in eucalypt forests in southern Australia in order to better understand and model the dynamics of woody fuel consumption. Two approaches were used in model development: (1) a fire or plot level analysis, based on a dataset which includes the proportion of the pre-fire woody fuel load consumed at each fire; and (2) a stage level analysis, based on a dataset where woody fuel consumption was measured at a woody fuel particle level (i.e. pre-fire and post-fire diameter). For the plot level analysis a generalised linear model (GLM) approach identified the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the best predictor of the proportion of woody fuel consumed, with an R2 of 0.58 and mean absolute error of 10\%. The stage level analysis recognised the various combustion stages through which a burning woody particle would pass, but failed to develop an accurate model that predicted the ignition, partial and full consumption of woody fuels based on fuel, fire behaviour and environmental variables. Analysis showed that consumption of woody fuel particles is highly variable and that variation in fire behaviour potentially has a greater impact on woody fuel consumption, than does variation in fuel characteristics (e.g. state of decay, fuel suspension and interactions with other fuel particles). The FFDI GLM provides forest and fire managers with a tool to manage woody fuel consumption objectives and may assist fire managers with forecasting post-frontal fire behaviour. The FFDI GLM may also assist forest and fire managers to better meet land management goals and to comply with air quality and emission targets.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.02.031}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Wendy R. Anderson and Cruz, Miguel G. and Burrows, N.D.} } @book {BF-2924, title = {Burning Issues}, year = {2011}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, abstract = {Southern Australia is one of the three most fire-prone areas on Earth. After more than a century of urban growth and valiant efforts to {\textquoteleft}tame{\textquoteright} the bush, recent decades have seen more people moving back onto the fringe or into the middle of this volatile landscape. As this movement has intensified, so has the debate on how to best protect life and property from the ever-present bushfire threat. A long-running drought and a predicted warming climate have ensured that bushfire is a dominant factor in our nation{\textquoteright}s long-term planning. Following the tragic Victorian Black Saturday fires in 2009, a much greater urgency now confronts policy makers, land and fire managers and communities living in bushfire areas. This has led to a call for a single, simple answer on fuel reduction burning to reduce the bushfire risk. Burning Issues explains that this is a complex issue without such a simple answer. The book gives an account of the role of fire in Australia{\textquoteright}s ecosystems, how we have to accept and live with fire, and how we can manage fire both for safety and for diversity. It aims to change people{\textquoteright}s attitudes to fire, and to be influential in encouraging changes in land management by government agencies. }, isbn = {9780643094437}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/201/pid/6421.htm }, author = {Adams, Mark A. and Peter Attiwill} } @proceedings {BF-3057, title = {Bushfire Survival-Related Decision Making: What the Stress and Performance Research Literature Tells Us}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-307-319-bushfire-survival-related-decision-making}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary and Ilona M McNeill and Patrick Dunlop and Suss, J} } @proceedings {BF-3055, title = {Capturing Community Members{\textquoteright} Bushfire Experiences: The Lake Clifton (WA) Fire}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-272-277-capturing-community-members-bushfire-experiences-lake-clifton-fire}, author = {Patrick Dunlop and Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn and Leanne Kelly and Riseborough, K and Meagan Tyler and Peter Fairbrother} } @article {BF-3200, title = {Changes to occupational health and safety laws and the impact on volunteers in the emergency services}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {26}, year = {2011}, month = {November 2011}, pages = {43-47}, abstract = {The states and territories have agreed to enact new, nationally consistent workplace health and safety laws. These new laws are based on the Model Work Health and Safety Bill and will come into effect on 1 January 2010. This article compares the position under the Model Act with the current legal position to identify the implications for volunteers in the Australian emergency services. It is argued that the new law will reinforce the message that Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency service volunteers provide an important and professional service. The new law should not impede volunteers but should facilitate their work both at home and inter-state. Peer Review Icon On the first of January 2012, the Australian states and territories are scheduled to implement new, national occupational health and safety laws. These laws will be modelled on the Model Work Health and Safety Bill published by Work Safe Australia ({\textquoteleft}the Model Act{\textquoteright}).1 A significant feature of the new legislation is the inclusion of volunteers into the definition of {\textquoteleft}worker{\textquoteright}. Volunteers are already included in the definition of {\textquoteleft}worker{\textquoteright} in the Australian Capital Territory, the Northern Territory and Queensland2 so the changes will be of most significance in the other States. This article will compare the position under the Model Act with the current legal position to identify the implications for volunteers in the Australian emergency services. This is not a comprehensive review of the legislation but is limited to an analysis of the key provisions that may impact on emergency service volunteers. Naturally this article cannot be considered as a substitute for legal advice to deal with specific situations and issues.}, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Documents/AJEM\%2026-4/WEMA\%20Vol26No4_Eburn.PDF}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @conference {BF-3051, title = {The changing nature of emergency services multi-agency coordination}, booktitle = {Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2011 Conference Science Day}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, organization = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/managed/resource/214-233_the_changing_nature_of_emergency_services_multi-agency_coordination.pdf}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-3138, title = {Community Members{\textquoteright} Decision Making Under the Stress of Imminent Bushfire Threat - Murrindindi Fire}, year = {2011}, month = {July 2011}, institution = {La Trobe University}, abstract = {This is a report of findings from a pilot analysis of three data sets concerning experiences of those affected by the Murrindindi Fire on Saturday, 7 February 2009: (a) 51 transcripts of interviews with survivors conducted by members of the Bushfire CRC Research Taskforce; (b) 15 lay witness statements to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission; and (c) evidence presented to the Royal Commission concerning the 38 fatalities that occurred on 7 February 2009 as a result of the Murrindindi Fire. The Interim and Final Reports of the Royal Commission were also consulted. There were two aims: First to investigate community members{\textquoteleft} plans, decisions and actions in relation to the Murrindindi Fire. Second, to develop data analysis procedures to apply subsequently to: (i) the complete data set of 608 Taskforce interview transcripts; (ii) the complete data set of approximately 100 Royal Commission lay witness statements; (iii) the evidence presented to the Royal Commission concerning the 173 fatalities resulting from the 7 February 2009 Victorian bushfires. The body of the report describes findings from the pilot study of decision making by community members under imminent bushfire threat. The procedures developed appear to be suitable to apply to the three larger data sets: (i), (ii), and (iii), described above. Ten {\textquoteleft}lessons{\textquoteright} about decision making by community members under imminent bushfire threat emerging from the pilot study are proposed. 1. Lack of accurate, timely, specific, and personally-relevant information about the fire threat undermines sound survival-related decision making. Uncertainty is a major threat to survival. (page 55) 2. Communities influence decision making by individual members via shared, normative, beliefs about bushfire risk. If a majority of community members believe that their community is not at risk, most individuals will be psychologically unready to make sound survival-related decisions under imminent bushfire threat. (page 54) 3. Advice and information from particular {\textunderscore}others{\textquoteleft} will be a major determinant of an individual{\textquoteleft}s decision making{\textemdash}the more so under conditions of uncertainty. Information and advice from close family members, and from people perceived to have bushfire-related expertise (firefighters, SES, police) will be extremely influential. (page 55) 4. What others are observed to be doing is an important determinant of an individual{\textquoteleft}s decision making. People are social beings and take their cues about what to do by noting what others are doing in a given situation{\textemdash}especially a situation characterised by uncertainty. (page 55) 5. Under imminent bushfire threat decision making and action is gendered. Men are more likely to stay and defend their property; women are more likely to leave{\textemdash}especially if they have strong feelings of responsibility for the physical or psychological wellbeing of other family members. (pages 12, 28, 43) 6. Commitment to a bushfire plan may be a path to disaster{\textemdash}especially a plan to stay and defend. Better that any plan is conditional upon specific conditions being met before being implemented, and has fall-back options. (pages 10, 12, 18, 35-39) 7. The legendary {\textunderscore}Murphy{\textquoteleft} was an optimist with regards to bushfires. All involved should be warned to expect and be ready for something really important going seriously wrong at the worst possible time with potentially fatal consequences (page 19, pages 35-39). [The general literature on human factors aspects of safety in hazardous environments suggests that thorough rehearsal and practice of intended actions may offer some protection]. 8. Some individuals should not be in a situation where they are at risk of bushfire attack: people under 18, those aged 70 or more, those with disabilities or other impairments{\textemdash}physical, social, psychological. (Table 3, pages 51-53) 9. In extremis, an individual{\textquoteleft}s ability to: (a) down-regulate negative emotions like fear and anxiety; (b) maintain an attentional focus on emerging threats from the environment; and (c) keep actions coupled tightly to surviving in a potentially lethal environment will largely determine survival. (pages 21-23). 10. For a variety of complex reasons, some individuals will choose to act in ways that jeopardise their safety, and the safety of others. (Table 3, pages 51-53) }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/community-members-decision-making-under-stress-imminent-bushfire-threat-murrindindi-fire}, author = {Jim McLennan and Elliott, Glenn} } @proceedings {BF-3054, title = {The Complex Network within Bushfire Investigation Strategy}, year = {2011}, month = {11/2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-258-271-complex-network-within-bushfire-investigation-strategy }, author = {Marco De Sisto} } @article {BF-3119, title = {Concept review Framing challenges for sharing responsibility}, year = {2011}, month = {09/2011}, abstract = {Introduction This report presents key findings from the first stage of the Sharing Responsibility project, which aims to support stakeholders of the Australian fire and emergency management (FEM) sector to make decisions about how to address the {\textquoteleft}wicked{\textquoteright} problem of sharing responsibility for risk management and community safety. The goal of the first stage of the project{\textemdash}the {\textquoteleft}Stage 1 concept review{\textquoteright}{\textemdash}was to develop a conceptual framework to guide the Sharing Responsibility project that incorporated multiple ways of understanding and framing the underlying challenges of responsibility-sharing. The idea of frames is an important one underpinning this report. Frames are the {\textquotedblleft}underlying structures of belief, perception, and appreciation{\textquotedblright} (Sch{\"o}n \& Rein, 1994, p. 23) that people use to interpret and understand complex issues. The way decision makers, researchers and other stakeholders frame a risk management problem shapes what solutions they see as most viable, which information they use to make decisions, and which arguments they deem legitimate (Vaughan \& Seifert, 1992, p. 121). This report is based on the premise that reflecting on the impact of frames is important for developing a more nuanced understanding of the meaning of shared responsibility for Australian fire and emergency management. Background The Stage 1 concept review was carried out through a type of narrative literature review known as an interpretive, integrative review (Whittemore \& Knafl, 2005). In order to capture the widest range of approaches used in research to frame responsibility-sharing challenges in risk management, the review included studies of risk management in a wide range of political systems, and across various sectors such as public health, transport, new technologies and policing. In order to determine the scope of the review, the concept of responsibility needed to be examined. The idea of responsibility itself can be framed in different ways. In the context of sharing responsibility, views about what is being shared inevitably shape positions on how to share it. Four different but interrelated facets of responsibility are discernible in discussions across different disciplines, as well as in common usage of the term: obligation, accountability, causality and trustworthiness. A common emphasis in discussions of responsibility is its fundamental relationship with freedom and constraint. Three aspects of this relationship are highlighted in research literature: freedom of choice, constraint in acting, and capacity to act. A third important aspect of responsibility as an idea is its intricate relationship with risk. These two concepts are connected through the common importance of agency {\textendash} or free choice - to both. As with responsibility, concepts of risk are often linked with the exercise of human choice through decision-making. The Stage 1 concept review incorporated research studies that combined two broad but pivotal themes: risk management (Theme 1); and, responsibility-sharing issues (Theme 2). For theme 1, {\textquoteleft}risk management{\textquoteright} was interpreted broadly and included some scenarios that are not explicitly analysed through the lens of {\textquoteleft}risk{\textquoteright}. Theme 2 involved scenarios of collective risk management in which issues of how to share or distribute responsibility amongst the different parties involved were raised or addressed in some way.}, author = {John Handmer} } @proceedings {BF-3049, title = {Design of a valid simulation for researching physical, physiological and cognitive performance in volunteer firefighters during bushfire deployment.}, year = {2011}, publisher = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, author = {Susan Ferguson and Brad Aisbett and Sarah M Jay and Katrina Onus and Cara Lord and Sprajcer, M. and Matthew JW Thomas} } @proceedings {BF-3045, title = {The development of an automated algorithm to map fire severity from satellite imagery: tropical savannas northern Australia.}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-120-128-development-automated-algorithm}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards} } @proceedings {BF-3047, title = {The dirt on assessing post-fire erosion in the Mount Lofty Ranges: comparing methods}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-152-169-dirt-assessing-post-fire-erosion}, author = {Morris, Rowena and Solomon Buckman and Paul Connelly and Deirdre Dragovich and Bertram Ostendorf and Ross Bradstock} } @article {BF-2787, title = {Does low-intensity surface fire increase water- and nutrient-availability to overstorey Eucalyptus gomphocephala?}, journal = {Plant and Soil}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The objective of this study was to investigate how the management practices of prescribed fire and understorey vegetation removal affect water and nutrient relations of old, yet prematurely declining Eucalyptus gomphocephala. Long unburnt sites were established in Yalgorup National Park, Western Australia, adjacent to frequently burnt state forest sites. Trees were allocated to vegetation clearing, prescribed fire or no prescribed fire treatments. Prescribed fire was achieved in only one long unburnt national park site so that the results were pseudoreplicated but analysed accordingly. Soil chemistry, plant nutrient availability and tree foliar carbon and nitrogen isotope ratio and nutrient concentration were investigated. No effects of vegetation clearing were found. Prescribed fire sites were associated with sky exposure and bare ground whereas no prescribed fire sites were associated with shrub and litter cover and litter depth. Foliar carbon isotope ratios were significantly more negative in prescribed fire, relative to no prescribed fire, treatments on long unburnt sites. Soil exchangeable Zn and Mn and plant available (estimated by charged resin beads) Mg were higher on prescribed fire, relative to no prescribed fire, long unburnt sites. Seedling bioassays indicated elevated P and Cu availability on prescribed fire, relative to no prescribed fire, treatments. In overstorey E. gomphocephala, foliar N levels were elevated (but not to excessive levels), and there was a trend toward elevated foliar Mn, in prescribed fire relative to no prescribed fire treatments on long unburnt sites. In the context of our large-scale pseudoreplicated case study, prescribed fire provided a pulse of water and N, (with some indications towards provision of elevated Mn, Cu and Mg) availability to E. gomphocephala in decline on sites with a history of a long absence of fire that may in part underpin observations of elevated tree health on sites that have a history of relatively frequent fire. }, doi = {10.1007/s11104-011-0862-3}, author = {Close, DC and Davidson, N. J. and Swanborough, Perry W. and Corkrey, Ross} } @article {BF-2786, title = {Economic Management of Disaster Resilience and Recovery: Remedying the Insurance Problem}, year = {2011}, month = {July 2011}, author = {Rachel Anne Carter} } @article {BF-2926, title = {Ecosystem Respiration in a Seasonally Snow-Covered Subalpine Grassland}, journal = {Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research}, volume = {43}, year = {2011}, month = {02/2011}, pages = {137 - 146}, abstract = {Ecosystem respiration is important because it is the small imbalances between CO2 uptake via photosynthesis and CO2 release by ecosystem respiration that determine the effect of the biosphere on atmospheric CO2. For subalpine grasslands with mild winters we do not know the size of under-snow respiration relative to the total annual ecosystem respiration. This study determines the contribution of respiration through snow to total annual respiration, and models annual ecosystem respiration based on relationships with soil temperature and water content. Measurements were made monthly for two years in an unmanaged subalpine grassland in the Snowy Mountains of Australia. The vegetation is sparse (aboveground mass  =  355{\textendash}605 g m-2, belowground mass  =  570{\textendash}1010 g m-2) and dominated by native perennial C3 grasses and sedges. Ecosystem respiration was positively related to temperature, and there was some evidence that ecosystem respiration was more temperature sensitive at temperatures between 0 and 2 {\textdegree}C than at warmer temperatures. Annual ecosystem respiration was 12.1 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in 2007/2008 and 10.5 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in 2008/2009. Maximum daily rates of ecosystem respiration of 7 {\textmu}mol CO2 m-2 s-1 occurred during summer, while minimum rates occurred under snow cover and were 0.2 to 0.9 {\textmu}mol CO2 m-2 s-1. The duration of permanent snow cover was 60{\textendash}68 days (equivalent to 16{\textendash}18\% of the year) and ecosystem respiration under snow was 4.1 to 4.3\% of annual ecosystem respiration, which is smaller than the 10{\textendash}50\% commonly reported from studies in areas with longer snow-covered periods.}, doi = {10.1657/1938-4246-43.1.137}, author = {Warren, Charles R. and Taranto, MT} } @article {BF-3089, title = {The effect of aerial suppression on the containment time of Australian wildfires estimated by fire management personnel}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The addition of aerial firefighting resources to wildfire suppression operations does not always result in faster fire containment. In this paper, containment times of fires with aerial suppression are compared with estimated containment times for the same fires without aerial suppression. Senior firefighting personnel who had worked on each fire estimated whether fires could have been contained within a time class if aircraft were not available. Data from 251 wildfires were analysed based on four fire-containment time classes: <=2, 2{\textendash}4, 4{\textendash}8 and 8{\textendash}24 h from the start of initial attack. Aircraft were perceived to reduce time to containment when firefighting conditions were more challenging owing to fuel hazard rating, weather conditions, slope, resource response times and area burning at initial attack. Comparisons of containment time with and without aircraft can be used to develop operational tools to help dispatchers decide when aircraft should be deployed to newly detected fires.}, doi = {10.1071/WF11063}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-3087, title = {The Effect of Fireline Intensity on Woody Fuel Consumption in Southern Australian Eucalypt Forest Fires}, journal = {Australian Forestry}, volume = {74}, year = {2011}, pages = {81-96}, abstract = {The relationship between woody fuel consumption and fireline intensity was assessed using data collected at controlled fires and wildfires in south-western Western Australia, central Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales. The combined dataset consisted of fires in a range of dry eucalypt forests. Fire behaviour varied from slow, self-extinguishing prescribed burns to intense, fast-moving fires burning under conditions of extreme fire danger. Fireline intensity ranged from 50 kW m-1 to > 31 000 kW m-1. Woody fuel consumption ranged from 31\% to 100\%, and generally increased with fire intensity. Percentage consumption was highest for small woody fuels where the diameter was between 0.6 cm and 2.5 cm. Fireline intensity had a statistically significant, positive relationship with the proportion of woody fuel consumed by both controlled fires and wildfires. Two generalised linear models (GLM) describing woody fuel consumption as a function of fireline intensity were developed, one applicable to the prescribed fire environment (with fireline intensities typically < 750 kW m-1) and the other to the full range of fireline intensities. The prescribed burning model produced the best fit and lowest error statistics. The findings of this research have important practical implications for the management of fire to reduce fuel loads, maintain habitat and manage carbon stocks in fire-prone eucalypt forests. The woody fuel consumption models presented may assist the assessment of potential climate change impacts on coarse woody debris in Australian southern eucalypt forests. The results of this research suggest that predicted changes to fire regimes and fire intensity associated with climate change in southern Australia could result in greater woody fuel consumption and carbon release during bushfires and a reduction in woody fuel loads in dry eucalypt forests. Use of low-intensity prescribed fires may provide a practical way of managing woody fuel stocks to achieve particular land management objectives.}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=365294696940897;res=IELHSS}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Wendy R. Anderson and Lachlan W. McCaw and Cruz, Miguel G. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and J.S. Gould} } @proceedings {BF-3044, title = {The effect of prescribed fire severity}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-105-119-effect-prescribed-fire-severity}, author = {cawson, J. G and Gary J. Sheridan and Smith, Hugh G. and Lane, Patrick N. J.} } @proceedings {BF-3048, title = {Erosion and risk to water resources in the context of fire and rainfall regimes}, year = {2011}, publisher = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, author = {Petter Nyman and Gary J. Sheridan and Owen D. Jones and Lane, Patrick N. J.} } @proceedings {BF-3052, title = {Essential aspects of effective simulation-based training for incident management personnel}, year = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, isbn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-234-247-essential-aspects-effective-simulation-based-training}, author = {Peter Hayes and Omodei, Mary} } @article {BF-3161, title = {Eucalypt ecosystems predisposed to chronic decline: estimated distribution in coastal New South Wales}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Most eucalypt ecosystems depend on frequent low intensity fire to maintain natural nutrient cycles and the balance between established trees and their competitors and arbivores. Absence of frequent fire alters these processes and sometimes allows mass establishment of fire sensitive seedlings. Mature trees can be affected directly by the soil changes and indirectly by enhanced competition and arbivory. This can result in chronic decline of eucalypts and gross changes in the structure and composition of ecosystems. Some species and provenances appear to be genetically predisposed to enhanced arbivory whilst some sites are physically and chemically predisposed to deleterious changes in soil conditions. Thus information on species/site combinations can be used to identify ecosystems that are predisposed to chronic decline in the absence of fire. In New South Wales relatively unmodified eucalypt ecosystems mainly occur near the coast. We gathered observations of declining eucalypt ecosystems along the coast and used coarse GIS layers to estimate the extent and distribution of species and site combinations that are predisposed to decline. We estimated that 790, 000 hectares, about 18\% of the total area, of forests and woodlands in our study area may be predisposed to decline if managed inappropriately. About half the area is private land and half is in conservation reserves and multiple use forests. This preliminary estimate may help to focus attention on areas where adaptive management is necessary to conserve or restore healthy, diverse ecosystems and areas where further investigations are required to identify forests that are predisposed to decline}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/eucalypt-ecosystems-predisposed-chronic-decline-estimated-distribution-coa}, author = {Vic Jurskis and Todd Walmsley} } @proceedings {BF-3041, title = {An extreme fire processes cycle model for the February 2009 Victorian Fires}, year = {2011}, publisher = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, keywords = {undefined}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, author = {Bannister, T and N. Gellie and K Gibos and B. Potter} } @article {BF-2588, title = {Fire history and understorey vegetation: Water and nutrient relations of Eucalyptus gomphocephala and E. delegatensis overstorey trees}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, year = {2011}, month = {4/2011}, abstract = {Fire regimes in temperate forests and woodlands have changed significantly in Australia since European settlement. We hypothesised that an absence of fire leads to the increased development of woody understorey/midstorey and that this may be correlated with decreased water and/or nutrient availability in overstorey temperate eucalypts currently declining in health. Sites with a history of being long unburnt or recently (and frequently in the case of Eucalyptus gomphocephala woodland) burnt (relative to median fire intervals for the vegetation type) were established in E. gomphocephala woodland in Western Australia and in Eucalyptus delegatensis forest in Tasmania. In long unburnt sites in both E. gomphocephala woodland and E. delegatensis forest, there was greater percent cover of understorey/midstorey and eucalypts had higher water use efficiency, indicative of greater soil water limitation, as estimated by foliar carbon isotope ratios. In E. gomphocephala woodland foliar Cu and Zn were significantly lower in eucalypts of long unburnt, relative to frequently burnt, sites. In E. gomphocephala woodland, understorey/midstorey (shrub) cover was positively correlated, and foliar copper and zinc levels were negatively correlated to health of overstorey trees. In E. delegatensis forest foliar phosphorus (P) was significantly lower in eucalypts of long unburnt, relative to recently burnt, sites. In E. delegatensis forest moss cover was positively correlated and foliar P was negatively correlated to health of overstorey trees. The understorey/midstorey that develops in the long absence of fire may alter ecological processes that lead to less favourable water- and nutrient-relations in E. gomphocephala woodland and E. delegatensis forest that are associated with decline in crown health. However this study does not definitively show a link between understorey/midstorey vegetation and overstorey tree water- and nutrient-relations. This link will be investigated in future research}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.03.025}, author = {Close, DC and Davidson, N. J. and Swanborough, Perry W.} } @proceedings {BF-3050, title = {Frequency, intensity and duration of physical tasks performed by Australian rural firefighters during bushfire suppression}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-205-213-quantitative-task-analyses-bushfire-suppression}, author = {Phillips, Matthew and Kevin Netto and Payne, W and Cara Lord and Neil Brooksbank and Katrina Onus and Sarah Jefferies and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3096, title = {Fungi and fire in Australian ecosystems: a review of current knowledge, management implications and future directions}, journal = {Australian Journal of Botany}, volume = {59}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {70}, abstract = {Fungi are essential components of all ecosystems in roles including symbiotic partners, decomposers and nutrient cyclers and as a source of food for vertebrates and invertebrates. Fire changes the environment in which fungi live by affecting soil structure, nutrient availability, organic and inorganic substrates and other biotic components with which fungi interact, particularly mycophagous animals. We review the literature on fire and fungi in Australia, collating studies that include sites with different time since fire or different fire regimes. The studies used a variety of methods for survey and identification of fungi and focussed on different groups of fungi, with an emphasis on fruit-bodies of epigeal macrofungi and a lack of studies on microfungi in soil or plant tissues. There was a lack of replication of fire treatment effects in some studies. Nevertheless, most studies reported some consequence of fire on the fungal community. Studies on fire and fungi were concentrated in eucalypt forest in south-west and south-eastern Australia, and were lacking for ecosystems such as grasslands and tropical savannahs. The effects of fire on fungi are highly variable and depend on factors such as soil and vegetation type and variation in fire intensity and history, including the length of time between fires. There is a post-fire flush of fruit-bodies of pyrophilous macrofungi, but there are also fungi that prefer long unburnt vegetation. The few studies that tested the effect of fire regimes in relation to the intervals between burns did not yield consistent results. The functional roles of fungi in ecosystems and the interactions of fire with these functions are explained and discussed. Responses of fungi to fire are reviewed for each fungal trophic group, and also in relation to interactions between fungi and vertebrates and invertebrates. Recommendations are made to include monitoring of fungi in large-scale fire management research programs and to integrate the use of morphological and molecular methods of identification. Preliminary results suggest that fire mosaics promote heterogeneity in the fungal community. Management of substrates could assist in preserving fungal diversity in the absence of specific information on fungi.}, doi = {10.1071/BT10059}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file\&file_id=BT10059.pdf}, author = {McMullan-Fisher, Sapphire J. M. and May, Tom W. and Robinson, Richard and Bell, Tina and Lebel, Teresa and Catcheside, Pam and York, Alan} } @proceedings {BF-3046, title = {Integrated decision support model}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-139-151-integrated-decision-support-model}, author = {Minas, James P. and John Hearne} } @article {BF-3632, title = {Integrating spatial planning with bushfire risk and emergency management in the context of climate change: critical literature review - stage 1}, year = {2011}, month = {October 2011}, institution = {University of Canberra}, type = {Literature review}, address = {Canberra}, author = {Kate Sullivan and Barbara Norman} } @article {BF-2581, title = {Managing Emergencies: Key Competencies for Incident Management Teams}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Organisational Psychology}, volume = {4}, year = {2011}, pages = {1-10}, abstract = {Each year Australian fire and land management agencies deploy Incident Management Teams (IMTs) to manage bushfires. An important question is: what are the key competencies required for IMT personnel? Recent research in high reliability organisations suggests that teamwork-related competencies are likely to be most important because incident management depends critically upon interdependent team members, often operating in dynamic, uncertain, time pressured, and high stakes environments. This study used semi-structured interviews with experienced IMT personnel (N = 15) to identify 12 key competencies important for bushfire IMT roles. Analysis of 30 bushfire incidents described by interviewees confirmed that three competencies (a) interpersonal and communication skills, (b) leadership, and (c) IMT procedural knowledge were central. Potential implications for organisational decision making in emergency contexts in general are outlined.}, doi = {10.1375/ajop.4.1.1}, author = {Peter Hayes and Omodei, Mary} } @article {BF-3142, title = {Neighbourhood rules make or break spatial scale invariance in a classic model of contagious disturbance}, journal = {Ecological Complexity}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, month = {12/2011}, pages = {347 - 356}, abstract = {Scale invariant patterns have been observed in a range of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. These patterns are commonly interpreted as a signature of a self-organising system where global structures emerge from local dynamic interactions between system elements. In effect, an analogy is drawn to the scale invariant output of self-organised model systems, such as the Drossel and Schwabl forest fire model (FFM), and scale invariance in actual systems is then taken to be the product of self-organisation rather than some other process-specific, generative cause. Misinterpretation of the generative mechanism of scale invariance may well have significant consequences for ecosystem management. In actual ecosystems spatial interactions typically vary in form, distance and direction over time, often dependent on exogenous factors such as weather. While simulation models may sometimes represent spatial processes using a variable interaction within a local neighbourhood, what influence this has on model phenomena that are normally attributable to self-organisation has been little studied. We relax a key assumption implicit in the FFM by allowing different sized neighbourhoods over which contagion can occur, rather than maintain a constant sized neighbourhood. We examine how the scaling behaviour of simulated fire sizes changes with a variable neighbourhood size, and show that the invariant scaling typical of the FFM {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright} with the relaxation of the neighbourhood assumption. Our findings are a strong indication that the generative origins of scale invariance in the FFM (i.e., self-organisation) and in actual fire-prone forest landscapes are essentially different, in contrast to conclusions of previous studies.}, issn = {1476945X}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2011.07.005}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Johnston, P and Sadler, Rohan J.} } @article {BF-2494, title = {Pack Hike Test finishing time for Australian firefighters: Pass rates and correlates of performance}, journal = {Applied Ergonomics}, volume = {42}, year = {2011}, month = {03/2011}, pages = {411 - 418}, abstract = {The pack hike test (PHT, 4.83 km hike wearing a 20.4-kg load) was devised to determine the job readiness of USA wildland firefighters. This study measured PHT performance in a sample of Australian firefighters who currently perform the PHT (career land management firefighters, LMFF) and those who do not (suburban/regional volunteer firefighters, VFF). The study also investigated the relationships between firefighters{\textquoteright} PHT performance and their performance across a range of fitness tests for both groups. Twenty LMFF and eighteen age-, body mass-, and height-matched VFF attempted the PHT, and a series of muscular endurance, power, strength and cardiorespiratory fitness tests. Bivariate correlations between the participants{\textquoteright} PHT finishing time and their performance in a suite of different fitness tests were determined using Pearson{\textquoteright}s product moment correlation coefficient. The mean PHT finishing time for LMFF (42.2 {\textpm} 2.8 min) was 9 {\textpm} 14\% faster (p = 0.001) than for VFF (46.1 {\textpm} 3.6 min). The pass rate (the percentage of participants who completed the PHT in under 45 min) for LMFF (90\%) was greater than that of VFF (39\%, p = 0.001). For LMFF, VO2peak in L min-1(r = -0.66, p = 0.001) and the duration they could sustain a grip {\textquoteleft}force{\textquoteright} of 25 kg (r = -0.69, p = 0.001) were strongly correlated with PHT finishing time. For VFF, VO2peak in mL kg-1 min-1(r = -0.75, p = 0.002) and the duration they could hold a 1.2-m bar attached to 45.5 kg in a {\textquoteleft}hose spray position{\textquoteright} (r = -0.69, p = 0.004) were strongly correlated with PHT finishing time. This study shows that PHT fitness-screening could severely limit the number of VFF eligible for duty, compromising workforce numbers and highlights the need for specific and valid firefighter fitness standards. The results also demonstrate the strong relationships between PHT performance and firefighters{\textquoteright} cardiorespiratory fitness and local muscular endurance. Those preparing for the PHT should focus their training on these fitness components in the weeks and months prior to undertaking the PHT.}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2010.08.020 }, author = {Phillips, Matthew and Aaron Petersen and Abbiss, C.R. and Kevin Netto and Payne, W and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-3120, title = {Policy review Mechanisms for sharing responsibility A report of the Sharing Responsibility project}, year = {2011}, month = {10/2011}, abstract = {Introduction Challenges for sharing responsibility to manage risk and community safety are not only experienced in Australia, nor are they restricted to the field of fire and emergency management. Rather, finding ways to share responsibility amongst multiple parties is a challenge faced across a range of sectors that deal with risk and uncertainty. Risk research literature abounds with studies that expose responsibility-sharing issues in fields such as environmental management, public health, workplace safety, food safety, transportation, policing, new technologies and disaster management. This report presents findings from a review of different types of mechanisms that have been used to influence the way responsibility for risk management is shared amongst different parties across a range of contexts. The review represents the third stage of a five-staged project that aims to support stakeholders of the Australian fire and emergency management (FEM) sector to make decisions about how to address the {\textquoteleft}wicked{\textquoteright} problem of sharing responsibility for risk management (see Figure 1.1). The Sharing Responsibility project is a component of the {\textquoteleft}Understanding Risk{\textquoteright} research program of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC). Background The rationale for the Stage 3 policy review stems from three central positions: 1. That sharing responsibility is an important dilemma faced by the Australian fire and emergency management (FEM) sector; 2. That reflecting on the impact of frames is necessary for taming the {\textquoteleft}wicked{\textquoteright} problem of sharing responsibility; 3. That stakeholders of Australian FEM can draw valuable lessons from reflecting on the way responsibility is shared in other places and in other sectors. The first of these positions is widely supported within and also beyond Australian FEM. Regarding the second position, an underlying goal of the Stage 3 policy review, and indeed the Sharing Responsibility project as a whole, is to stimulate what Sch{\"o}n and Rein (1996; 1994) call being {\textquoteleft}frame-reflective{\textquoteright}. Being frame-reflective refers to the people, groups and organisations that are engaged in the policy-making process acknowledging and identifying different perspectives that exist, and purposefully querying the implications of the way they{\textemdash}and other stakeholders{\textemdash}frame problems. The third position recognises that drawing on experiences and ideas from other places and sectors is a powerful way to stimulate frame-reflection. It helps people to see beyond the usual boundaries and discourses in which they operate to {\textquoteleft}see{\textquoteright} problems in new ways and consider solutions that might otherwise remain hidden. Key concepts that underpin this report include those of risk, risk management, responsibility, collective action, institutions, governance and mechanisms. An inclusive concept of risk is adopted that incorporates multiple components, any one of which may be addressed through different risk management approaches. Like risk, the concept of responsibility is a complex, multi-faceted one. However, all facets of responsibility derive in some way from the existence of rules, norms and expectations in society that specify the rights and obligations associated with particular roles and relationships. Essentially, some form of responsibility-sharing occurs whenever there is collective action, and institutions have a central role in the way responsibility is shared. Importantly, most forms of risk management are multiparty undertakings, and hence involve some form of collective action. Institutions provide the shared rules, norms and expectations{\textemdash}or standards{\textemdash}through which responsibilities for risk management can be attributed, actioned and assessed. The term mechanism is used in this report to refer to any process used to establish or alter institutions for responsibility-sharing amongst parties engaged in collective action to manage risks.}, author = {John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {BF-3094, title = {Predicting woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia}, volume = {PhD}, year = {2011}, school = {ADFA @ UNSW}, type = {PhD}, abstract = {Consumption of woody fuel (diameter > 0.6 cm) during forest fires has important implications for fire suppression and firefighter safety, fire behaviour, ecological effects of fire and emissions of carbon and smoke. The ability to accurately predict woody fuel consumption is therefore important to support both forest and fire management decision making. However, information on woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia is scant and the predictive capacity of existing models is unknown. Pre-fire woody fuel structure and its consumption by fire was measured in eucalypt forests at experimental/prescribed fires and high intensity wildfires as part of the Woody Fuel Consumption Project (WFCP) in south-western Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variation in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These comprised data from south-western Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Data were combined to better understand and model the dynamics of woody fuel consumption and evaluate five existing models for the consumption of woody fuels for potential application in southern Australian eucalypt forest fires. The proportion of woody fuel consumed by forest fires was highly variable, ranging from 9 to 100\%. Evaluation statistics for existing models were best for the Australian National Carbon Accounting System model which assumes 50\% woody fuel consumption, however this assumption failed to capture large deviations where woody fuel consumption has been particularly high or low. CONSUME Activity and CONSUME Southern Woody models underpredicted observations while the CONSUME Western Woody model had very little bias and a better proportion of predictions within {\textpm}10\% of the observed woody fuel consumption. The BURNUP model showed the greatest overall level of error when used with natural fuels; however its performance improved when applied to heavy, modified fuel loads resulting from timber harvesting operations. A generalised linear model (GLM) approach to model development identified the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the best predictor of the proportion of woody fuel consumed. Fireline intensity also had a statistically significant, positive relationship with the proportion of woody fuel consumed. Analysis of combustion stages did not improve the ability of models to predict ignition, partial and full consumption of woody fuels. However, analysis showed that variation in fire behaviour potentially has a greater impact on woody fuel consumption, than variation in fuel characteristics. }, url = {http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/159738628?l-format=Thesis\&sortby=dateDesc\&q=jennifer+hollis\&l-australian=y\&c=book }, author = {Jennifer J Hollis} } @article {BF-3095, title = {Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {20}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {721}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is a commonly applied management tool, and there has been considerable debate over the efficacy of its application. We review data relating to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in Australia. Specifically, we address two questions: (1) to what extent can fuel reduction burning reduce the risk of loss of human life and economic assets posed from wildfires? (2) To what extent can prescribed burning be used to reduce the risk of biodiversity loss? Data suggest that prescribed burning can achieve a reduction in the extent of wildfires; however, at such levels, the result is an overall increase in the total area of the landscape burnt. Simulation modelling indicates that fuel reduction has less influence than weather on the extent of unplanned fire. The need to incorporate ecological values into prescribed burning programmes is becoming increasingly important. Insufficient data are available to determine if existing programs have been successful. There are numerous factors that prevent the implementation of better prescribed burning practices; most relate to a lack of clearly defined, measurable objectives. An adaptive risk management framework combined with enhanced partnerships between scientists and fire-management agencies is necessary to ensure that ecological and fuel reduction objectives are achieved.}, doi = {10.1071/WF09131}, author = {Trent Penman and Christie, Fiona J. and Andersen, A. N. and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Henderson, M. K. and Owen Price and Tran, C. and Wardle, G. M. and Williams, RJ and York, Alan} } @proceedings {BF-3053, title = {Prescribed fluid consumption and its effects on the physiology and work behaviour of Australian wildland firefighters}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-248-257-prescribed-fluid-consumption-and-its-effects-physiology}, author = {Raines, Jenni and Rodney Snow and Aaron Petersen and Jack Harvey and Katrina Onus and Sarah Jefferies and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-2499, title = {Preventing and Reducing Bushfire Arson in Australia: A Review of What is Known}, journal = {Fire Technology}, volume = {47}, year = {2011}, month = {4/2011}, pages = {507 - 518}, abstract = {Bushfires are the leading cause of death and injuries from natural disasters in Australia, are responsible for hundreds of millions dollars in economic losses every year and seriously affect the country{\textquoteright}s ecosystems. National data shows that half of these fires are deliberately lit with a significant proportion of these ignitions due to arson. This indicates the importance of arson research in any attempt to reduce unplanned fires. Strategies to prevent bushfire arson are examined from a criminological perspective. Much of the research on bushfire arson to date has focussed on identifying the motivations of arsonists and the paper shows the lack of utility of this approach. The difficulty of screening arsonists from employment with fire agencies is also discussed. More productive strategies include identifying and working with communities with high arson potential and early interventions with known arsonists or those at high risk of becoming one. The deterrence value of higher penalties is examined. The paper concludes that better data on bushfire ignitions and working with high risk communities and individuals offer the best chance of minimising bushfire ignitions in Australia at the present time. }, doi = {10.1007/s10694-010-0179-4}, author = {Beale, John and Jones, Warwick} } @article {BF-2793, title = {Project FuSE Aerial Suppression Final Report}, year = {2011}, institution = {CSIRO}, type = {Bushfire CRC Research Report}, abstract = {Three experimental fires were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of different fire suppression chemicals delivered by aircraft in March 2008. The fires were conducted in mallee heath fuels in Ngarkat Conservation Park, South Australia, at a site being used for an existing fuel and fire dynamics research project. Each fire was started from a long ignition line and allowed to fully develop before being attacked by suppression. The only suppression applied to these fires came from two single engine air tankers (Airtractor AT-802F) dropping a single suppressant type in each experiment. A water enhancing gel was directly applied to the fire edge in one experiment, while a foam suppressant was applied in another. The third experimental plot involved a fire burning into a pre-laid retardant line. The different suppression chemicals used in the experiments could not be directly compared. This was because the time taken for fire to burn through most of the drops could not be determined as they were breached by spotting or burnt around and because of the range of conditions experienced for the different drops. The aerial suppression experiments presented here allowed for the development and testing of aerial suppression assessment methodologies and have produced data that can be used to develop training material. This data highlights the importance of drop placement with regard to fire behaviour and location. Footage captured using a hand held airborne infrared camera in an aerial platform demonstrated some important aerial suppression tactical issues, such as drop coverage, drop accuracy and drop placement. Fire burning through one of the retardant drops highlighted the importance of adequate ground coverage levels for stopping fire propagation. }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/project-fuse-aerial-suppression-final-report}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and Cruz, Miguel G. and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2498, title = {Protecting Lives and Property in the Wildland{\textendash}Urban Interface: Communities in Montana and Southern California Adopt Australian Paradigm}, journal = {Fire Technology}, volume = {47}, year = {2011}, month = {4/2011}, pages = {357 - 377}, abstract = {Threats to people and property in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface have taken on global proportions. It is becoming increasingly rare to have a wildland fire incident that does not involve people and their homes. In addition to Australia and North America, people have died in interface fires in Europe, Africa, and Asia, including 212 people who died in the devastating forest fires in northeastern China in May 1987. The prevailing interface model is one that attempts to evacuate people away from fire areas to get them out of harm{\textquoteright}s way. This traditional approach in the U.S. has been preferred by law enforcement agencies and fire services. The problem with this model is that evacuation warnings are often late to non-existent, leading to the deaths of interface residents entrapped by fires on highways as they try to escape. For example, 16 people suffered lethal burns when the 2003 Cedar and Paradise Fires in California overran them as they were trying to evacuate. Two communities in the United States have adopted variations of the Australian model of Prepare, Go Early, or Stay and Defend (P/GE/SD). Officials in the Painted Rocks Fire District, Montana, and Rancho Santa Fe, California, were interviewed to determine how the Australian model was being implemented. Two of the authors have firsthand experience with these two case examples. P/GE/SD has been tested successfully at both locations. The Australian model, however, is under review following the Black Saturday fires of February 2009 in Victoria, Australia. The objective of this paper is to present specific ideas that can be used to reform and improve fire policy, planning, and performance in the Wildland{\textendash}Urban Interface in the United States. }, doi = {10.1007/s10694-010-0171-z}, author = {Mutch, Robert W. and Rogers, Michael J. and Scott L Stephens and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2923, title = {Relationship between leaf traits and fire-response strategies in shrub species of a mountainous region of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Annals of Botany}, year = {2011}, abstract = {{\textdagger} Background and Aims Resprouting and seed recruitment are important ways in which plants respond to fire. However, the investments a plant makes into ensuring the success of post-fire resprouting or seedling recruitment can result in trade-offs that are manifested in a range of co-occurring morphological, life history and physiological traits. Relationships between fire-response strategies and other traits have been widely examined in fire-prone Mediterranean-type climates. In this paper, we aim to determine whether shrubs growing in a non-Mediterranean climate region exhibit relationships between their fire-response strategy and leaf traits. {\textdagger} Methods Field surveys were used to classify species into fire-response types. We then compared specific leaf area, leaf dry-matter content, leaf width, leaf nitrogen and carbon to nitrogen ratios between (a) obligate seeders and all other resprouters, and (b) obligate seeders, facultative resprouters and obligate resprouters. {\textdagger} Key Results Leaf traits only varied between fire-response types when we considered facultative resprouters as a separate group to obligate resprouters, as observed after a large landscape-scale fire. We found no differences between obligate seeders and obligate resprouters, nor between obligate seeders and resprouters considered as one group. {\textdagger}Conclusions The results suggest that facultative resprouters may require a strategy of rapid resource acquisition and fast growth in order to compete with species that either resprout, or recruit from seed. However, the overall lack of difference between obligate seeders and obligate resprouters suggests that environmental factors are exerting similar effects on species{\textquoteright} ecological strategies, irrespective of the constraints and trade-offs that may be associated with obligate seeding and obligate resprouting. These results highlight the limits to trait co-occurrences across different ecosystems and the difficulty in identifying global-scale relationships amongst traits.}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcr263}, author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-2586, title = {Relative Greenness Index for assessing curing of grassland fuel}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {115}, year = {2011}, month = {6/2011}, pages = {1456 - 1463}, abstract = {Knowledge of the proportion of live and dead herbaceous fuel in grasslands is important in determining fire danger. This paper examines the Relative Greenness approach for quantifying these live and dead proportions. Relative Greenness places the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the context of a time series of measurements. The parameters used to describe the temporal distribution of NDVI and the time interval over which this distribution is assessed impact Relative Greenness and the inferred characteristics of the vegetation. In this paper, the Relative Greenness approach was investigated using different NDVI distribution parameters derived from eight-day composites of surface reflectance from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We assessed the accuracy of Relative Greenness for predicting the degree of curing (equivalent to the dead proportion of herbaceous fuel) measured at 25 grassland sites in Australia from 2005 to 2009. Results showed that Relative Greenness explained a greater proportion of the variance and provided a more accurate estimate of the degree of curing than linear regression against NDVI. Relative Greenness was further improved using alternative parameters of the NDVI distribution and by selecting an appropriate time interval over which this distribution was assessed.}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2011.02.005 }, author = {Glenn J Newnham and Verbesselt, Jan and Ian F Grant and Stuart AJ Anderson} } @article {BF-2587, title = {Respiratory quotients and Q10 of soil respiration in sub-alpine Australia reflect influences of vegetation types}, journal = {Soil Biology and Biochemistry}, year = {2011}, month = {3/2011}, abstract = {Identifying and quantifying attributes that help predict rates of heterotrophic soil respiration is a key issue. Similarly, assessing the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil C is critical to establishing if increases in Mean Annual Temperature will serve to further increase atmospheric CO2. Using organic soils from three sub-alpine communities that differ significantly in structure, species composition and productivity, we measured the respiratory quotient (RQ = rates of CO2 efflux/rates of O2 uptake) and temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration during long-term (120 days) incubation. As a directly measurable parameter, RQ is free of empirical assumptions and provides an additional tool that can be used in conjunction with constants derived from fitted Arrhenius or exponential equations, to help understand shifts in microbial use of C substrates and how changes in vegetation might affect soil processes. Q10 did not change significantly over the course of a 120-day incubation for any of our studied soils. RQs varied with vegetation type and were consistently lower in grassland soils than woodland soils. RQs also varied during long-term incubations and declined consistently with time for grassland soils. RQs declined towards the end of the 120-day incubation for woodland soils. The generally low Ea for these soils from sub-alpine vegetation types in Australia, and the fairly rapid decline in RQ during incubation, suggest the likely greater temperature sensitivity of recalcitrant C relative to labile C could provide a strong positive feedback to increases in Mean Annual Temperature.}, doi = {10.1016/j.soilbio.2011.02.017}, author = {Jenkins, Meaghan E. and Adams, Mark A.} } @proceedings {BF-3043, title = {Rethinking the fuel {\textendash} fire relationship}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-87-99-rethinking-fuel-\%E2\%80\%93-fire-relationship}, author = {Zylstra, Philip} } @article {BF-3543, title = {A Review of Empirical Studies of Fireband Behaviour: Part A}, year = {2011}, abstract = { The vast majority of empirical research of firebrand behaviour during {\textquoteleft}flight{\textquoteright} has employed wood samples of regular shape and combusted while tethered in an airflow at a range of fixed velocities or at a relative airflow equivalent to their terminal velocity. Ideally, firebrand samples should be combusted at an air velocity equal to their terminal velocity, and untethered. Australia arguably experiences the worst cases of spotting in the world, and this has largely been attributed to the firebrand characteristics of eucalypt bark, which varies enormously in morphology. Models for firebrand behaviour developed using wood samples may at best be suitable for a limited number of bark morphologies, and then only if validated. One study has quantified the firebrand characteristics of messmate stringybark, which is notorious for intense short distance spotting, using small samples of up to 6 g burnt untethered and hence burning at their terminal velocity. A very limited study of shed bark cylinders of a {\textquoteleft}gum bark{\textquoteright} type has failed to demonstrate that this type could cause the cases of extreme distance spotting for which the type is notorious. Thus, there is a need to validate the existing work on messmate stringybark and extend it to include large samples, possibly by investigating another notorious stringybark, for example. In addition, there is a need to investigate possible agents for the long-distance spotting which is a feature of major fires, perhaps initially focussing on the types notorious for this type of spotting, but also investigating other firebrand material reported in the field. }, author = {Ellis, Peter} } @article {BF-3570, title = {A review of empirical studies of firebrand behaviour: Part B}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Ignition probability and early spotfire growth are critical to the impact of given levels of firebrand generation and transport. There is little information on fuelbed ignition probability and early spotfire growth for firebrand and fuelbed combinations relevant to Australia, especially for conditions of Very High to Extreme Fire Danger during which the hazard and potential losses caused by spotting are greatest. Hence, there is a need to further investigate these processes.}, author = {Ellis, Peter} } @article {BF-3132, title = {A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Across the globe, wildfire-related destruction appears to be worsening despite increased fire suppression expenditure. At the same time, wildfire management is becoming increasingly complicated owing to factors such as an expanding wildland{\textendash}urban interface, interagency resource sharing and the recognition of the beneficial effects of fire on ecosystems. Operations research is the use of analytical techniques such as mathematical modelling to analyse interactions between people, resources and the environment to aid decision-making in complex systems. Fire managers operate in a highly challenging decision environment characterised by complexity, multiple conflicting objectives and uncertainty. We assert that some of these difficulties can be resolved with the use of operations research methods.Wepresent a range of operations research methods and discuss their applicability to wildfire management with illustrative examples drawn from the wildfire and disaster operations research literature.}, issn = {1049-8001}, doi = {10.1071/WF10129}, author = {Minas, James P. and John Hearne and John Handmer} } @article {BF-3542, title = {A Review of Wildfire Occurrence Research}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Wildfire occurrence statistics describe the presence and quantity of ignitions across spatial and temporal scales. Fire occurrence research is based on regional fire incidence data containing the time, location and cause of all fires within a defined area and time period. This research has also relied on other spatial and temporal data, including terrain, land cover, human geography, weather, and fire danger indices, in analyse and modelling.}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-2522, title = {Sharing risk: Financing Australia{\textquoteright}s disaster resilience}, year = {2011}, month = {Februray 2011}, institution = {Australian Strategic Policy Institute}, abstract = {This paper argues that it{\textquoteright}s time to start thinking strategically about how we can reduce future losses from natural disasters and aid victims in their recovery efforts. We should be asking fundamental questions about how private insurance and government assistance can be better leveraged to help communities recover. The paper makes nine recommendations to strengthen the role of insurance for Australian disaster resilience including: *establishing a regular dialogue between the insurance sector and state and federal governments to allow both sides to look at long-term disaster mitigation and recovery strategies *encouraging governments and insurers to work to develop programs that enhance financial literacy as a way to reduce disaster losses and cost-effective ways for individuals to be financially rewarded for taking measures to safeguard their properties * supporting mortgage lenders to require a property to have full insurance coverage against natural hazards and for this to be well enforced * implementing the Henry Review on tax that specific taxes on insurance products be abolished *embedding mitigation efforts with disaster assistance funding to reduce risk exposure for communities and insurers * conducting comprehensive landscape assessments to ensure insurance premiums are based on risk and thus send a signal to people to reduce their vulnerability to major disasters * urging the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) to commission a study on initiatives to enhance the take-up of insurance cover and examine various schemes to encourage resilience through insurance arrangements. We need a new approach to financing the costs of natural disasters and encouraging those living in high-risk areas to be better prepared. The reality is that all Australian taxpayers will have to bear a share of this cost. The authors are Dr Anthony Bergin, and Edward Mortimer, from ASPI and Rachel Carter, Associate Lecturer in Law, Latrobe University.}, url = {http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=280\&pubtype=-1 }, author = {Edward Mortimer and Anthony Bergin and Rachel Anne Carter} } @article {BF-3090, title = {A simple method for field-based grassland curing assessment}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {20}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {804}, abstract = {The degree of grassland curing represents the proportion of dead material in a grassland fuel complex, expressed as a percentage. It is an important input for models to predict rate of fire spread and determine fire danger levels in grasslands. The degree of curing is currently determined in Australia and New Zealand using a combination of satellite imagery and ground-based visual observations by operational personnel. Both methods present problems. The satellite imagery technique requires updating to accommodate newer satellite technology, as well as extension and validation across all of the major grasslands in both countries. Visual assessments are often both inaccurate and spatially inadequate across the landscape. This paper describes the development of a field-based method to accurately and easily determine curing levels in the field, based on modification of an existing point quadrat method of pasture assessment. This alternative technique minimises subjective assessment by field observers, and involves tallying the number of live and dead touches on a thin steel rod driven into the ground. The average error across sites was lower for exotic improved pastures than native grasslands. Results suggest that this method can be applied across Australasia more accurately than current methods.}, doi = {10.1071/WF10069}, author = {Stuart AJ Anderson and Wendy R. Anderson and Jennifer J Hollis and Botha, Elizabeth J.} } @article {BF-4212, title = {Summary of issues emerging in coordination breakdown from secondary sources (in particular inquires and similar)}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The secondary sources analysis is being conducted using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) as a framework (Wiegmann \& Shappell, 2003). This classification system draws off Reason{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}Latent error{\textquotedblright} model of understanding organisational error as a combination of active and latent failures. While the Reason model has strengths in acknowledging that errors occur due to a range of organisational factors or failures of other organisational defenses, Reason{\textquoteright}s model is necessarily descriptive. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) provides an explanatory framework to better understand the trajectory of an error. }, author = {Brooks, B} } @article {BF-2495, title = {Variation in fire interval sequences has minimal effects on species richness and composition in fire-prone landscapes of south-west Western Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {261}, year = {2011}, month = {01/2011}, pages = {965-978}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is used in many fire-prone ecosystems for wildfire mitigation and conservation of biodiversity. However, there is limited information about how biota responds to long-term fire management, especially at a whole-of-community level. We studied community responses to different fire interval sequences resulting from planned and unplanned fires in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems in the Warren bioregion of south-west Western Australia (SWA) to determine the resilience of the biota to contrasting fire regimes. Fire history data were used to identify contrasting fire interval sequences in forest and shrubland communities for the period 1972{\textendash}2004. We surveyed vascular plants, ants, beetles, vertebrates and macrofungi at 30 sites to investigate community-level responses to consecutive short (SS: <=5 years), consecutive long (LL: >=10 years), one very long (VL: 30 years), or mixed/moderate (M: 6{\textendash}9 years) fire interval(s). All sites had a common time-since-fire of not, vert, similar4 years at the commencement of sampling which was conducted over two years. Species richness and composition differed between forest and shrubland communities, but the influence of fire interval sequences on taxonomic groups was minimal and difficult to detect. There was weak evidence of compositional differences between SS and LL/VL regimes for plants, ants, beetles and macrofungi but no difference between these regimes and the intermediate disturbance M-regime. These results demonstrate the resilience of the biota in open forests and shrublands of SWA to contrasting fire interval sequences over the past 30 years. We conclude that occasional short (3{\textendash}5 years) intervals between fires are unlikely to have a persistent effect on community composition, though maintaining a regime of short or long intervals may alter species composition and/or abundance. We suggest that variability in fire intervals is important for long-term conservation of the biota. For the Warren Region, prescribed burning at an intermediate level of disturbance and incorporating variability in interval length is recommended to achieve the dual objectives of wildfire mitigation and biodiversity conservation.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2010.10.037}, author = {Wittkuhn, Roy and Lachlan W. McCaw and Wills, Allan J. and Robinson, Richard and Andersen, A. N. and Van Heurck, Paul and Farr, Janet and Liddelow, Graeme and Cranfield, Ray} } @proceedings {BF-3058, title = {Warning Fatigue what is it and why does it matter}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/pages-297-306-warning-fatigue-what-it-and-why-does-it-matter}, author = {Brenda Mackie} } @article {BF-2789, title = {What Applied Social Psychology Theories Might Contribute to Community Bushfire Safety Research After Victoria{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}Black Saturday{\textquotedblright}}, journal = {Australian Psychologist}, year = {2011}, month = {08/2011}, abstract = {From 1900 to 2008, bushfires in Australia claimed 552 lives. Partly in response to disastrous fires in 1967 and 1983, a national community bushfire safety policy emerged, summarised as {\textquotedblleft}prepare, stay and defend, or leave early.{\textquotedblright} On 7 February 2009, {\textquotedblleft}Black Saturday,{\textquotedblright} Victoria experienced Australia{\textquoteright}s worst-ever day of bushfires: 173 people died as a result and more than 2,000 homes were destroyed. Three investigations in the aftermath of the fires indicated significant shortcomings in the effectiveness of current approaches to community bushfire safety generally. We examine whether application of social psychological theories from the fields of health promotion and injury prevention might play a role in improving community bushfire safety. We review four theoretical approaches: the theory of planned behaviour, the extended protection motivation theory, the extended parallel process model, and the terror management health model. We conclude that there is good evidence supporting the general utility of each of these theories as predictive of health-promoting behaviour. Furthermore, there are sound reasons to conclude that they hold promise for addressing important problematic issues in community bushfire safety practice.}, issn = {00050067}, doi = {10.1111/j.1742-9544.2011.00041.x}, author = {Beatson, Ruth and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-4280, title = {Wild fires - the legal regulatory system of insurance and emergency services funding}, journal = {Southern Cross University Law Review}, volume = {14}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {75-92}, chapter = {75}, abstract = { In Australia there is no specific insurance for catastrophic losses. This is particularly problematic due to the propensity for the nation to be subject to severe geographical and climatic events such as extreme bushfires which are becoming increasingly frequent and increasingly severe. Despite this trend in increased catastrophic events and the additional strains upon the system after events such as Black Saturday and to a lesser extent after other smaller wildfires the system has retained its pre-disaster status quo. To compound this problem, the situation is particularly grave for many Australians who remain uninsured or underinsured. It has been suggested that {\textquoteright}almost 70\% of tenants have no contents cover.{\textquoteright} This problem was exposed as a result of the Black Saturday fires in Victoria during February 2009 when approximately one third of people in some of the affected areas were inadequately insured. Although there is inconsistency with the precise figures regarding the number of inadequately insured people, it has been suggested to be much higher than the number of those who were uninsured. The consequential property and economic loss resulting from Black Saturday was largely alleviated due to the generosity of the Australian public. This however raises issues regarding the maintenance of our current system and its ability to cope with the increasing number of catastrophic events.}, keywords = {Fire insurance premiums, Manners and customs, Public health, Social history}, issn = {1329-3737}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=105427907393771;res=IELHSS}, author = {Rachel Anne Carter} } @article {BF-2831, title = {Wildfires in Australia}, journal = {Crisis Response Journal}, volume = {7}, year = {2011}, month = {09/2011}, pages = {46-48}, chapter = {46}, url = {http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/GlobalNetworks/Crisis-Response-2011-Vol-7-2-p46-48-Australasia-Australia.pdf}, author = {RP Thornton} } @article {BF-3102, title = {Wind-terrain effects on the propagation of wildfires in rugged terrain: fire channelling}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The interaction of wind, terrain and a fire burning in a landscape can produce a variety of unusual yet significant effects on fire propagation. One such example, in which a fire exhibits rapid spread in a direction transverse to the synoptic winds as well as in the usual downwind direction, is considered in this paper. This type of fire spread, which is referred to as {\textquoteleft}fire channelling{\textquoteright}, is characterised by intense lateral and downwind spotting and production of extensive flaming zones. The dependence of fire channelling on wind and terrain is analysed using wind, terrain and multispectral fire data collected during the January 2003 Alpine fires over south-eastern Australia. As part of the analysis, a simple terrain-filter model is utilised to confirm a quantitative link between instances of fire channelling and parts of the terrain that are sufficiently steep and lee-facing. By appealing to the theory of wind{\textendash}terrain interaction and the available evidence, several processes that could produce the atypical fire spread are considered and some discounted. Based on the processes that could not be discounted, and a previous analysis of wind regimes in rugged terrain, a likely explanation for the fire channelling phenomenon is hypothesised. Implications of fire channelling for bushfire risk management are also discussed.}, doi = {10.1071/WF10055}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Rick McRae and Wilkes, Stephen R.} } @article {BF-2466, title = {Assessing crown fire potential in coniferous forests of western North America: a critique of current approaches and recent simulation studies}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {19}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, pages = {377}, abstract = {To control and use wildland fires safely and effectively depends on creditable assessments of fire potential, including the propensity for crowning in conifer forests. Simulation studies that use certain fire modelling systems (i.e. NEXUS, FlamMap, FARSITE, FFE-FVS (Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator), Fuel Management Analyst (FMAPlus{\textregistered}), BehavePlus) based on separate implementations or direct integration of Rothermel{\textquoteright}s surface and crown rate of fire spread models with Van Wagner{\textquoteright}s crown fire transition and propagation models are shown to have a significant underprediction bias when used in assessing potential crown fire behaviour in conifer forests of western North America. The principal sources of this underprediction bias are shown to include: (i) incompatible model linkages; (ii) use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and (iii) reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on the use of unsubstantiated crown fraction burned functions. The use of uncalibrated custom fuel models to represent surface fuelbeds is a fourth potential source of bias. These sources are described and documented in detail based on comparisons with experimental fire and wildfire observations and on separate analyses of model components. The manner in which the two primary canopy fuel inputs influencing crown fire initiation (i.e. foliar moisture content and canopy base height) is handled in these simulation studies and the meaning of Scott and Reinhardt{\textquoteright}s two crown fire hazard indices are also critically examined.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08132}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Alexander, ME} } @proceedings {BF-3092, title = {Assessing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian forest fires}, year = {2010}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @article {2047, title = {Australian bushfire fatalities 1900-2008: exploring trends in relation to the {\textquoteleft}Prepare, stay and defend or leave early{\textquoteright} policy}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {13}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {185 - 194}, abstract = {

In many jurisdictions, including parts of the US, authorities often dictate mandatory evacuations of communities threatened by bushfire (wildfire). Prior to the 2009 [{\textquoteleft}]Black Saturday{\textquoteright} fires in Victoria, Australian fire authorities in all States advised residents to decide whether they would prepare to stay and defend homes or leave early. The clear intent of that policy was to avoid late evacuations and the risks to life that this could entail. This study re-examines evidence underpinning this policy using analyses of a database of bushfire fatalities. The database contains information on 552 civilian (non-fire fighter) fatalities obtained from print media archives at Risk Frontiers and forensic, witness and police statements contained within coronial inquest reports for all bushfire fatalities between 1901 and 2008. This data, compiled before the Black Saturday fires, clearly show the dangers of being caught outside during a bushfire and the gendered division of the circumstances of these deaths. While men have been most often killed outside while attempting to protect assets, most female and child fatalities occurred while sheltering in the house or attempting to flee. The database provides a benchmark against which the Black Saturday experience can be examined.

}, keywords = {Community safety, Fatalities, Policy, Wildfire, Wildland-urban interface}, isbn = {1462-9011}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.03.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1462901110000201}, author = {Katharine Haynes and John Handmer and John McAneney and Tibbits, Amalie and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {2040, title = {Bushfire and everyday life: Examining the awareness-action {\textquoteleft}gap{\textquoteright} in changing rural landscapes}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {41}, year = {2010}, month = {10/2010}, pages = {814 - 825}, abstract = {

In this paper we use the notion of {\textquoteleft}everyday life{\textquoteright} to critically examine an apparent {\textquoteleft}gap{\textquoteright} between bushfire risk awareness and preparedness amongst diverse landholders in rural landscapes affected by amenity-led in-migration in southeast Australia. Landholders were found to bring their own agency to bushfire preparedness in the relationships between everyday procedures, dilemmas, and tradeoffs. Consequently, regardless of landholders{\textquoteright} awareness levels, attitudes towards bushfire and natural resource management influence if, how, and to what extent landowners prepare for bushfires. We argue that not only is the {\textquoteleft}gap{\textquoteright} complex but also paradoxical in that it is both evident in, and constituted by, landholder attitudes and action and simultaneously dissolved in their practices and decision-making in everyday life. Three dilemmas of everyday life in particular were found to underpin these attitudes: costs (in terms of monetary and time values), gender roles, and priorities. Using a mixed-methods research approach, this simultaneous cultural construction and material nature of bushfire in everyday life is mapped out through landholders{\textquoteright} narratives and actions that embody living with fire on the land. The place of bushfire in landholders{\textquoteright} everyday life has direct relevance to recent international discussions of the vulnerability of the growing number of people living in bushfire-prone rural-urban interface areas.

}, issn = {167185}, doi = {10.1016/j.geoforum.2010.05.004}, author = {Eriksen, Christine and Gill, Nicholas} } @article {BF-2424, title = {Can climate at the seed-source predict the success of eucalypts planted on sites that have been grazed for over 100 years?}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {259}, year = {2010}, month = {02/2010}, pages = {1025 - 1032}, abstract = {Many regions of southern Australia exposed to broad-acre grazing are denuded of trees. Re-establishing trees in these landscapes is important for both environmental and economic reasons. We investigated whether climate at the site of origin of the seed can inform species selection for tree establishment on ex-pasture sites within agricultural landscapes. We established trials at four sites in the sheep and cattle grazing region of the Midlands of Tasmania at: {\textquoteleft}Woodland Park{\textquoteright}; {\textquoteleft}Sorrel Springs{\textquoteright}; {\textquoteleft}Inverel{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Glen Morey{\textquoteright} farms (long-term average rainfalls of 584, 520, 520, and 479 mm, respectively). Eucalypt species were selected, based on high tolerance to frost and drought inferred from climate at the sites of origin and based on the limited scientific literature available, from across Tasmania and mainland Australia. We investigated the mortality, health and height growth of 18 eucalypt species three months, one and six years after planting. Climatic data from the site of origin of the seed of these species was used to group species into categories of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall at seed-source. Sensitivity of species to environment was investigated and compared using modified joint regression. At three planting sites, Woodland Park, Sorrel Springs (except health of the temperature category comparison at six years) and Inverel, we found significantly greater height and health one and six years after planting for local (Tasmanian) compared to non-local (Australian mainland) species, and for species where the site of origin of seed was categorised as low or medium mean annual temperature compared with those categorised as high mean annual temperature. There were no significant differences in mortality for these comparisons. At Glen Morey, height was significantly greater at six years after planting of local compared to non-local species and of species from low and medium mean annual temperature categories compared with the high mean annual temperature category. Mortality was significantly greater in local than non-local species six years after planting. Health was not significantly different for these comparisons. Differences in height, health or mortality of species categorised into mean annual rainfall at seed-source were largely non-significant at all sites one and six years after planting. A study of the sensitivity of species to environment of planting indicated that Tasmanian species were less sensitive than mainland species when height data was compared. When health data was compared, species with a site of origin of seed categorised as low rainfall were less sensitive to environment than species categorised as medium and high-mean rainfall. When mortality data was used significant differences were identified in the sensitivity of species to planting environment but this was not related to locality, mean annual temperature or rainfall at seed-source. Species that attained above average height and low mortality across three or more sites included Eucalyptus pulchella, Eucalyptus perineana (Tasmanian species), and Eucalyptus microcarpa, Eucalyptus benthamii and Eucalyptus melliodora (mainland species). Whilst temperature (and to a lesser extent rainfall) at seed-source is a good indicator of the success of tree establishment, high variability between sites points to the need to consider climate, browsing pressure and farm management at the paddock-scale when planning revegetation plantings. This has important implications for carbon sequestration plantings.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.12.010}, author = {Close, DC and Davidson, N. J. and Churchill, KC and Corkrey, Ross} } @mastersthesis {BF-1173, title = {Carbon cycling in Sub-alpine Ecosystems.}, year = {2010}, school = {The University of New South Wales}, type = {Phd Thesis}, address = {Sydney}, author = {Jenkins, Meaghan E.} } @article {BF-2423, title = {Classifying the fire-response traits of plants: How reliable are species-level classifications?}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {264 - 273}, abstract = {Plant species in fire-prone environments possess specific traits which allow them to survive fire. Species are commonly classified according to whether they survive fire and resprout or whether they are killed by fire and regenerate from seed. However, different populations of the same species have been shown to vary in their responses. Therefore, the classification of a species into a single category based on fire-response traits may not necessarily be representative of every population under every circumstance. This study examined the extent of within-species variation in fire-response traits of woody plants in south-eastern Australia after the 2003 fires. Species were then classified using two approaches: (i) using data from a field survey of fire-response traits, taking into account within-species variation; and (ii) using species{\textquoteright} fire responses listed in a pre-existing fire-response database compiled from a variety of primary sources. Field data showed that the majority of species in the study area resprouted after fire with around one in 10 species variable in their resprouting response. Almost half of all species varied from site to site according to whether they regenerated from seed, either solely or in addition to resprouting. The numbers of species classified as resprouters and seed regenerators varied according to the classification method used. Differences were also found between the classification method when calculating the mean proportion of resprouters and seed regenerators across sites. The fire-response traits for some species from the database were found to differ from the observed field responses. This study demonstrated that the application of a fire-response trait, reported in a trait database, to an entire species, may not adequately represent the actual fire responses of the populations of interest. Rather than considering the fire-response traits of a species, accurate prediction may be better achieved by considering how different populations of plants will respond to fire.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02032.x}, author = {Vivian, L M and Doherty , Michael and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {2046, title = {Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {260}, year = {2010}, month = {2010/10/15/}, pages = {1791 - 1797}, abstract = {Predicted changes to global climates are expected to affect natural fire regimes. Many studies suggest that the impact of these effects could be minimised by reducing fuel loads through prescribed burning. Fuel loads are dynamic and are affected by a range of factors including fire and climate. In this study, we use a 22-year dataset to examine the relative influence of climate and fire history on rates of litterfall and decomposition, and hence fuel loads, in a coastal Eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Litterfall and decomposition were both affected by temperature, recent rainfall and fire history variables. Over the study period prescribed burning immediately reduced fuel loads, with fuel loads reaching pre-burn levels within 3 years of a fire. Modelling fuel loads under predicted climate change scenarios for 2070 suggests that while fuel loads are reduced, the levels are not significantly lower than those recorded in the study. Based on these predictions it is unlikely that the role or value of prescribed burning in these forests will change under the scenarios tested in this study. }, keywords = {Accumulation, Climate change, Decomposition, Forest management, Prescribed burning}, isbn = {0378-1127}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6X-511H38D-1/2/2825befe9a608c7cb83a0a58406d25a8}, author = {Trent Penman and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2507, title = {Community Bushfire Safety: A Review of Post-black Saturday Research}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {25}, year = {2010}, pages = {7-13}, abstract = {Following the {\textquoteright}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires of 7 February 2009, a number of research reports on community bushfire safety were presented to the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. These include reports from the CFA, OESC, Bushfire CRC and Department of Justice. These reports have different research aims and employ a range of methods and samples. Some reports investigate community safety issues during the Black Saturday bushfires, while others examine preparedness and intentions for future fires. This paper reviews these reports to identify common findings, inconsistencies and gaps relating to community safety during bushfires, and discusses the implications of methodological differences for research findings.}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/\%289A5D88DBA63D32A661E6369859739356\%29~WEMA+Vol25No4_Whittaker+\&+Handmer.PDF/$file/WEMA+Vol25No4_Whittaker+\&+Handmer.PDF}, author = {J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @article {BF-2070, title = {Computing forest fires aerial suppression effectiveness by IR monitoring}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, year = {2010}, month = {07/2010}, abstract = {This paper describes the methodology developed to analyse IR images obtained during the aerial suppression experiments that were conducted in Ngarkat Conservation Park, South Australia, on 3{\textendash}5 March 2008. This methodology has been specifically developed in order to extract the maximum information from the IR images taken from an observing helicopter, in those tests where chemical suppressants are applied directly on the fire, although it could eventually be applied to other similar situations. The information obtained after applying this methodology allows quantifying the aerial suppression effectiveness.}, keywords = {Airborne monitoring, Chemical suppressants drops, Fire behaviour, Mallee woodland, Project FuSE}, issn = {03797112}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2010.06.004}, author = {P{\'e}rez, Yolanda and Pastor, Elsa and Planas, Eul{\`a}lia and Matt P Plucinski and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2503, title = {Crown condition assessment: An accurate, precise and efficient method with broad applicability to Eucalyptus}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, year = {2010}, month = {01/2011}, pages = {no - no}, abstract = {Assessment of crown condition is a useful tool for monitoring forest health and is used widely to assess tree dieback and decline. Multiple methods used to assess eucalypt crown condition are difficult to compare across studies. Furthermore, the relative effectiveness of the available methods has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to find an accurate, precise and efficient method for the assessment of crown condition in eucalypts. Four widely used methods were used to assess the crown condition of 516 eucalypt trees from Tasmania and Western Australia. Two of the methods assessed individual crown condition parameters (single-parameter methods) which could then be added to give an overall score for condition (additive parameter). The other two methods use a single score to encompass many crown parameters (combined-parameter methods). A selection of trees was scored on multiple occasions and by multiple assessors to determine repeatability and reproducibility. Data were analysed by Spearman{\textquoteright}s correlations and principal components analysis. All scored parameters were positively correlated to varying degrees. All parameters were distributed along a single-principal components analysis axis, with the parameters from the single-parameter methods having the greatest weightings. In order to address the objective of this study five criteria were developed for consideration of parameters that assess crown condition: (i) capacity to assess dieback (high correlation with other crown parameters, and capacity to indicate the presence of dieback symptoms in the crown); (ii) observer bias (sensitivity to minor change and small difference between observers); (iii) repeatability (sensitivity to minor change and small difference between years); (iv) capacity to assess different species; and (v) efficiency to score. Methods that best met these criteria used additive parameters derived from the crown parameters of primary crown dieback, epicormic growth and either crown shrinkage or dead branches. The single most useful parameter for assessment of eucalypt crown condition was primary crown dieback. This parameter was found to be the most accurate and precise measure of crown condition and is efficient to score. Primary crown dieback is recommended as the standard method for assessment of crown condition of eucalypt trees.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2010.02206.x}, author = {Horton, Bryony M. and Close, DC and WARDLAW, T. J. and Davidson, N. J.} } @article {BF-2411, title = {Dendroecological potential of Callitris preissii for dating historical fires in semi-arid shrublands of southern Western Australia}, journal = {Dendrochronologia}, volume = {28}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, pages = {37 - 48}, abstract = {Historical fire regimes in the semi-arid shrublands of southern Western Australia are poorly understood, largely owing to a lack of quantitative historical data. We sought to determine the dendroecological potential of fire-sensitive Callitris preissii Miq. trees to date historical fires and extend the length of fire-history data available from remotely sensed imagery. We sampled C. preissii trees from known fire areas in the Lake Johnston region in southern Western Australia. Our objective was to assess the capacity to date historical fires using stand establishment date as a proxy measure of time since fire. We measured stem basal diameter and height and collected stem sections of C. preissii trees and saplings from five areas that were burnt on known dates between 1974 and 2001. We also sampled older trees (>35 years), which were used to create a master chronology to assist with dating of seedlings and saplings. Tree age could not be reliably estimated from stem basal diameter and tree height, with 95\% prediction intervals of more than 17 years. However, we were able to successfully determine tree age and develop a ring-width chronology using standard dendrochronological techniques. The cross-dated chronology showed a relatively high inter-series correlation in ring width (r=0.63) indicating consistency in growth rate among samples and sites, while mean sensitivity (0.39) signified high inter-annual variability in ring width. The age structure of C. preissii stands revealed consistent recruitment within 1 year of fire occurrence and maximum intra-stand variation in tree age of 4 years. Our results confirm that C. preissii has significant dendroecological potential to accurately date past fire events and that this approach will assist in extending fire-history records beyond recent decades for much of southern semi-arid Australia.}, doi = {10.1016/j.dendro.2009.01.002}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Cullen, Louise E. and Lachlan W. McCaw and Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2416, title = {Deriving state-and-transition models from an image series of grassland pattern dynamics}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {221}, year = {2010}, month = {02/2010}, pages = {433 - 444}, abstract = {We present how state-and-transition models (STMs) may be derived from image data, providing a graphical means of understanding how ecological dynamics are driven by complex interactions among ecosystem events. A temporal sequence of imagery of fine scale vegetation patterning was acquired from close range photogrammetry (CRP) of 1 m quadrats, in a long term monitoring project of Themeda triandra (Forsskal) grasslands in north western Australia. A principal components scaling of image metrics calculated on the imagery defined the state space of the STM, and thereby characterised the different patterns found in the imagery. Using the state space, we were able to relate key events (i.e. fire and rainfall) to both the image data and aboveground biomass, and identified distinct ecological {\textquoteleft}phases{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}transitions{\textquoteright} of the system. The methodology objectively constructs a STM from imagery and, in principle, may be applied to any temporal sequence of imagery captured in any event-driven system. Our approach, by integrating image data, addresses the labour constraint limiting the extensive use of STMs in managing vegetation change in arid and semiarid rangelands.}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.027}, author = {Sadler, Rohan J. and Hazelton, Martin and Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2252, title = {The effect of fire on birds of mulga woodlandin arid central Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {19}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, pages = {949}, doi = {10.1071/WF09028}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary and Edwards, Glenn P. and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {2041, title = {Exposure to bushfire smoke during prescribed burns and wildfires: Firefighters{\textquoteright} exposure risks and options}, journal = {Environment International}, year = {2010}, month = {Oct-10}, abstract = {Firefighters are exposed to known health-damaging air pollutants present in bushfire smoke and poorly managed exposure can result in serious health issues. A better understanding of exposure levels and the major factors influencing exposures is crucial for the development of mitigation strategies to minimise exposure risks and adverse health impacts. This study monitored air toxics within the breathing zone of firefighters at prescribed burns and at wildfires in Australia. The results showed that exposure levels were highly variable, with higher exposures (sometimes exceeding occupational exposure standards) associated with particular work tasks (such as patrol and suppression) and with certain burn conditions. The majority of firefighter{\textquoteright}s exposures were at low and moderate levels (~ 60\%), however considerable attention should be given to the high (~ 30\%) and very high (6\%) exposure risk situations for which acute and chronic health risks are very likely and for which control strategies should be developed and implemented to minimise health risks. }, issn = {1604120}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2010.09.005}, author = {Reisen, Fabienne and Hansen, Dane and Meyer, C.P. (Mick)} } @article {BF-2578, title = {Fire Dynamics in Mallee Heath Vegetation}, year = {2010}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Stuart Matthews and J.S. Gould and Ellis, Peter and Henderson, M. K. and Knight, IK and Watters, J} } @article {BF-2502, title = {Fire refugia: The mechanism governing animal survivorship within a highly flammable plant}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {no - no}, abstract = {Identifying factors that influence the survival of individuals during disturbance is critical to understanding patterns of species reassembly within ecological communities. Although most studies of recovery of populations post-burning acknowledge the potentially important contribution of animals surviving in situ, few have measured the effectiveness of refugia. This paper tests the hypothesis that some plants with tightly packed leaf-bases provide a refuge for invertebrates during fire (even when the plants themselves burn) by using the highly flammable grass tree (Xanthorrhoeaceae: Xanthorrhoea). Invertebrates were sampled from four unburnt and five experimentally burnt grass trees (Xanthorrhoea preissii Endl.). Also collected were invertebrates fleeing during burning. The dataset comprises 949 specimens, representing 81 species from 18 orders, of which 749 individuals were from unburned plants. Slaters (Isopoda), silverfish (Thysanura), spiders (Araneae) and bugs (Hemiptera) dominated assemblages of the unburnt grass trees. Despite grass trees burning at temperatures of up to 515{\textdegree}C, some invertebrates survived in situ. Species-specific microhabitat preferences within the plant appeared to influence survivorship. Species collected in the crown of unburned plants were found more often alive on burnt plants than species typically inhabiting the dead skirt of decaying leaves (thatch). We contend that the mechanism causing differential mortality is fire temperature. In the dead skirt, temperatures reached 225.33 {\textpm} 66.57{\textdegree}C. In contrast, a region of mild temperature (25.00 {\textpm} 3.54{\textdegree}C) persisted throughout burning near the apical meristem (within the crown). We conclude that grass trees are a potential reservoir from which invertebrates might re-colonize recently burnt areas. However, owing to species-specific microhabitat preferences and differential mortality across microhabitats, the invertebrate assemblage remaining in situ will be restricted taxonomically compared with the original grass tree fauna. Moreover, different fire regimes might mediate the effectiveness of grass trees as refugia. Finally, we argue that in situ survival of invertebrates within plants with tightly packed leaf-bases is an unrecognized global phenomenon applicable to a wide array of plant taxa.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2010.02127.x}, author = {Brennan, KEC and Moir, ML and Wittkuhn, Roy} } @article {BF-2314, title = {Fire tolerance of perennial grass tussocks in a savanna woodland}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2010}, month = {12/2010}, pages = {858 - 861}, abstract = {Grass populations in tropical savannas are highly resilient in relation to different fire regimes, but the mechanisms conferring such resilience have been poorly studied. Here we examine one such mechanism, high adult survival during fire, for three perennial grass species in an Australian savanna: Eriachne triseta Nees ex Steud, Eriachne avenacea R.Br and Chrysopogon latifolius S.T.Blake.The study examined survivorship after 3 years, at plots subject to experimental fire regimes (experiencing 0, 1, 2 or 3 fires over the study period) at theTerritory Wildlife Park near Darwin in the Northern Territory, Australia. Mean survivorship was 79.9\%, 64.3\% and 62.0\% for E. avenacea, E. triseta and C. latifolius respectively. For the two species of Eriachne, mean survivorship was highest (E. avenacea, 94.6\%; E. triseta, 77.1\%) in unburnt plots, whereas survivorship of C. latifolius was highest (71.7\%) under highest fire frequency. However, variation in survivorship among fire regime treatments was not statistically significant for any of the study species. This negligible difference in survivorship among regimes points to fire tolerance (sprouting ability) as an important mechanism contributing to the resilience and persistence of perennial grasses in these savannas.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02091.x}, author = {Scott, Ken and Setterfield, SA and Douglas, MM and Andersen, A. N.} } @conference {BF-2460, title = {Fuel and fire behaviour in semi-arid mallee-heath shrublands}, booktitle = { 6th International Forest Fire Research Conference}, year = {2010}, month = {November 2010}, publisher = {ADAI}, organization = {ADAI}, address = {Coimbra, Portugal}, abstract = {An experimental burning program was set up in South Australia aimed at characterizing fuel dynamics and fire behaviour in mallee-heath woodlands. Fuel complexes in the experimental area comprised mallee and heath vegetation with ages (time since fire) ranging from 7 to 50 years old. Dominant overstorey mallee vegetation comprised Eucalyptus calycogona, E. diversifolia, E. incrassate and E. leptophylla. A total of 66 fires were completed. The range of fire environment conditions within the experimental fire dataset were: air temperature 15 to 39{\textdegree}C; relative humidity 7 to 80\%; mean 10-m open wind speed 3.6 to 31.5 km/h; Forest Fire Danger Index 1.7 to 46. Total fuel load ranged from 0.38 kg/m2 in young (7-year old) mallee to 1.0 kg/m2 in mature stands. Fire behaviour measurements included rate of spread, flame geometry, residence time and fuel consumption. Measured rate of spread ranged between 0.8 and 55 m/min with fireline intensity between 144 and 11,000 kW/m. The dataset provided insight into the threshold environment conditions necessary for the development of a coherent flame front able to overcome the fine scale fuel discontinuities that characterise the semi-arid mallee-heath fuel types and support self-sustained fire propagation. The data also provided a better understanding of the variables determining the behaviour of selfsustained fires, including rate of fire spread, flame dimensions, crowning and spotting activity.}, isbn = {978-989-20-2157-7}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2431, title = {The gendered dimensions of bushfire in changing rural landscapes in Australia}, journal = {Journal of Rural Studies}, volume = {26}, year = {2010}, month = {10/2010}, pages = {332 - 342}, abstract = {This paper examines gender differences in awareness, preparedness and attitudes towards bushfire amongst landholders in rural landscapes affected by amenity-led in-migration in southeast Australia. It considers the potential of conceptualising bushfire not as a gender-neutral natural phenomenon but as an important means by which traditional gender roles and power relations within rural landscapes are maintained. Landholders were found to uphold conventional views of bushfire management as {\textquotedblleft}men{\textquoteright}s business{\textquotedblright} despite changing social circumstances. Consequently, key gender differences exist within landholders{\textquoteright} bushfire risk awareness, bushfire knowledge, the perceived need for bushfire preparedness measures, the willingness to perform certain tasks, and the belief in personal capacity to act. We argue that covert and less visible as well as overt gender roles and traditions are important factors in understanding landholders{\textquoteright} engagement with bushfire management. When gendered dimensions of bushfire are investigated in the context of hegemony, a paradox emerges between women choosing not to take control of their own bushfire safety and women being denied the opportunity to take control. The complex and contradictory actions and attitudes to bushfire that materialise through an analysis of gendered social experiences complicate attempts to create more gender-sensitive frameworks for bushfire management. The tenacious and embedded nature of gender role divisions within both public and private spheres was furthermore found to act as economic, social and political stumbling blocks for empowerment opportunities. Using a mixed-methods research approach, this paper maps out gendered dimensions of bushfire through landholders{\textquoteright} narratives and actions. The implications of these dimensions for bushfire management have direct relevance to recent international discussions of the vulnerability of the growing number of people living in bushfire-prone rural{\textendash}urban interface areas.}, doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2010.06.001}, author = {Eriksen, Christine and Gill, Nicholas and Head, Lesley} } @article {BF-2555, title = {Improved Methods for Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Curing Satellite Based Curing Methods and Mapping - final report}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The degree of grassland curing (the proportion of cured and/or dead material in a grassland fuel complex) has a significant effect on the ease of ignition, rate of spread and difficulty of suppression of grassfires. There is a critical need for accurate curing information as an input to Australian and New Zealand fire behaviour models and fire danger rating systems. Curing is currently assessed by networks of agency personnel using visual estimates which are spatially sparse, subjective and of limited accuracy. Satellite based curing maps have been produced for south-eastern Australia and Western Australia for several years, but these are based on research restricted to Victorian grasslands, in which curing was estimated visually or indirectly. The component of Project A1.4 reported here has developed satellite-based approaches to the mapping of curing that can provide timely, spatially explicit, objective curing maps covering all of Australia and New Zealand. The research was based on an extensive dataset of objective curing measurements collected over up to four seasons at 39 sites across Australia and 16 sites in New Zealand, with considerable support from fire agency personnel. The research focused on estimating curing with data from the recent MODIS satellite instrument, as a prototype of future satellite systems that will replace the AVHRR instrument on which current satellite curing maps are based. The project investigated multispectral and temporal approaches to minimising the influence of variations in the relative proportions of grass, evergreen vegetation and soil. Both approaches showed a modest performance benefit in curing estimation over the field dataset. However, the advantages of these methods are expected to be more apparent in regions with more mixed vegetation cover proportions than the project field sites. The performance of four candidate methods to map curing over the landscape was evaluated through agency feedback during a pilot trail conducted in southern Australia and New Zealand over the 2009/2010 curing season. On the basis of results at the project field sites and agency feedback, methods to map curing using MODIS satellite data are recommended for Australia and New Zealand. Compared to visual estimates, these satellite methods showed greater accuracy at the project field sites, and provide a basis for efficient, objective and spatially continuous curing maps. The project has surveyed end users on their requirements of an operational system in terms of map format, spatial resolution, frequency, timeliness and delivery mechanism. Given the urgent need for objective and spatially continuous curing information, it is recommended that a system to produce and distribute MODIS curing maps be set up within an agency experienced in the distribution of national scale satellite products. This will enable a more extensive evaluation by end users of their utility in an operational setting in upcoming fire seasons and allow any shortfalls not exposed by the field dataset to be addressed. The potential of the other methods identified by the project to provide alternative curing estimates should be borne in mind during this wider evaluation, particularly in semi-arid or wooded regions where only limited qualitative validation has been available. }, author = {Glenn J Newnham and Ian F Grant and Martin, Danielle and Stuart AJ Anderson} } @article {BF-2500, title = {Indigenous Wetland Burning: Conserving Natural and Cultural Resources in Australia{\textquoteright}s World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park}, journal = {Human Ecology}, volume = {38}, year = {2010}, month = {12/2010}, pages = {721 - 729}, doi = {10.1007/s10745-010-9362-y}, author = {McGregor, Sandra and Lawson, Violet and Christophersen, Peter and Kennett, Rod and Boyden, James and Bayliss, Peter and Liedloff, Adam and McKaige, BJ and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-2465, title = {Monte Carlo-based ensemble method for prediction of grassland fire spread}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {19}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, pages = {521}, abstract = {The operational prediction of fire spread to support fire management operations relies on a deterministic approach where a single {\textquoteleft}best-guess{\textquoteright} forecast is produced from the best estimate of the environmental conditions driving the fire. Although fire can be considered a phenomenon of low predictability and the estimation of input conditions for fire behaviour models is fraught with uncertainty, no error component is associated with these forecasts. At best, users will derive an uncertainty bound to the model outputs based on their own personal experience. A simple ensemble method that considers the uncertainty in the estimation of model input values and Monte Carlo sampling was applied with a grassland fire-spread model to produce a probability density function of rate of spread. This probability density function was then used to describe the uncertainty in the fire behaviour prediction and to produce probability-based outputs. The method was applied to a grassland wildfire case study dataset. The ensemble method did not improve the general statistics describing model fit but provided complementary information describing the uncertainty associated with the predictions and a probabilistic output for the occurrence of threshold levels of fire behaviour.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08195}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G.} } @conference {BF-2461, title = {National Fire Behaviour Presiction System}, booktitle = {Biennial Conference of the Institute of Foresters of Australia, Caloundra, 2009}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, publisher = {IFA}, organization = {IFA}, address = {Caloundra}, abstract = {The estimation of fire behaviour is an important component of any fire management approach, allowing the determination of the impacts of fire on ecosystem components and supporting forest fire management decision-making. Fire behaviour prediction combines quantitative and qualitative information based on experience and scientific principles of describing the combustion and behaviour of fire influence by topography, weather and fuel. Predictions are based on mathematical models that integrate important factors in a consistent way. The National Fire Behaviour Prediction (NFBP) system will consist of four primary components (fuel models, fuel moisture models, wind models, and fire behaviour models) to predict fire characteristics (e.g., rate of spread, flame height, fireline intensity, onset of crowning spotting potential, etc). This paper will focus on the fire behaviour component of the NFBP system. This component integrates a suite of models covering the main fuel types of Australia, eucalyptus forests, exotic pine plantations, grasslands, shrublands and Mallee-heath. The desired accomplishments of the proposed National Fire Behaviour Prediction Systems is to provide fire managers with better operating models to implement prescribed burning programs, suppression resources, risk and biodiversity management programs. The fuel type specificity of the fire models, its greater accuracy and updated calculation methods allow also for more accurate simulations of the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on fire potential and risk in Australia.}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and J.S. Gould} } @proceedings {BF-3040, title = {Progress in understanding springtime fire weather in Tasmania}, year = {2010}, publisher = {R.P. Thornton (Ed) 2011, {\textquoteleft}Proceedings of Bushfire CRC \& AFAC 2010 Conference Science Day{\textquoteright} 1 September 2011, Sydney Australia, Bushfire CRC}, address = {Sydney, Australia}, issn = {978-0-9806759-9-3}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {BF-2490, title = {Review of Incident Management Teamwork and multi-agency collaboration}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The study reported here is the first systematic review of Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency Incident Management System to be conducted since its national introduction in 2004. The report is based on 579 responses from fire and emergency services personnel who worked within 25 agencies representing all Australian states and territories and also includes a sample from New Zealand. The purpose of the survey was to: {\textperiodcentered} Review information and communication flows; {\textperiodcentered} Review how teams work with the AIIMS system; {\textperiodcentered} Identify opportunities for improvement. The survey included a number of questions which were the same as items included in a 2003 questionnaire conducted the Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) as a precursor to the formal adoption of the Australasian Inter-service Incident Management System (AIIMS)as the national system in Australia. This meant it was possible to make comparisons with the 2003 baseline data which provided insights into how the system had evolved over the past five years. The survey was divided into six sections which sought information about: {\textperiodcentered} the incident itself (for example, type, complexity, duration of the incident {\textperiodcentered} the area of responsibility of the respondent, and activity during a particular shift (which included information in relation to reporting pathways; briefings, Incident Action Plans, use of risk management and assessment tools, what helped/hindered people do their jobs, communication plans, resourcing and safety issues); {\textperiodcentered} perceptions of teamwork as well as identification of which team the respondent worked within (state or regional levels of coordination; within an Incident Management Team; on the Ground as a Division or Sector Commander; Crew Leader or within a strike team or equivalent). {\textperiodcentered} Perceptions of interaction between the Incident Management Team and those working on the fire/incident ground; {\textperiodcentered} levels of satisfaction with AIIMS/organisational procedures and processes; and {\textperiodcentered} respondent demographics.}, author = {Owen, Christine and Dwyer, Ian} } @article {BF-2410, title = {Sampling downed coarse woody debris in fire-prone eucalypt woodlands}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {259}, year = {2010}, month = {01/2010}, pages = {440 - 445}, abstract = {Downed coarse woody debris (DCWD) plays an important role in ecosystem processes and should be considered in land management decisions. Unfortunately accurate quantification of its abundance is difficult, due to its patchy distribution. This is especially problematic in woodland ecosystems where DCWD is relatively scarce, unevenly distributed and smaller in size than in other forest types. This study compared the efficacy of the line intersect and strip plot methods to sample properties of DCWD at woodland sites with differing fire histories. Although measures of abundance using the two methods did not differ statistically, the line intersect method had 20\% less variability in the data, was quicker to perform and made it easier to locate individual pieces of DCWD than the strip plot method. The results of this study indicate that transects of 100 m or less are insufficient for estimating DCWD volume in woodlands. An acceptable level of precision was reached at approximately 450 m at very recently burnt sites and 700 m at long unburnt sites when only transect length was considered. However when taking both transect length and number of replicates into account, an acceptable level of precision was reached at 500 m when sampling a minimum of 20 sites. It is therefore recommended that pilot studies should be conducted to determine appropriate sampling intensities in previously unsampled areas as DCWD volume estimates are sensitive to the rate at which variance changes with increasing transect length. This is particularly important when there is variation in the disturbance history of the sites. However, if it is not possible to conduct pilot studies, the requirement would be to sample line intersect transects of at least 500 m, at a minimum of 20 sites in woodland systems.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.10.041}, author = {Miehs, Anne and York, Alan and Tolhurst, K.G. and Di Stefano, J and Bell, Tina} } @article {BF-2081, title = {Short Communication on Research Response to the Black Saturday (7th February 2009) Victorian Bushfires, Australia}, journal = {Fire Technology}, year = {2010}, issn = {1572-8099}, doi = {10.1007/s10694-010-0175-8}, author = {RP Thornton} } @article {BF-1137, title = {Soil seed banks confer resilience to savanna grass-layer plants during seasonal disturbance}, journal = {Acta Oecologica}, year = {2010}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL\&_udi=B6VR3-4Y82N9B-1\&_user=10\&_coverDate=01\%2F27\%2F2010\&_rdoc=1\&_fmt=high\&_orig=search\&_sort=d\&_docanchor=\&view=c\&_searchStrId=1216111599\&_rerunOrigin=google\&_acct=C000050221\&_version=1\&_urlVersion=0\&_us}, author = {Scott, Ken and Setterfield, SA and Douglas, MM and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-2556, title = {Spray system design for ember attack - Research findings and discussion paper}, year = {2010}, abstract = {This research report has been developed to provide background support for areas of the AFAC guideline. AFAC members and CSIRO have developed the AFAC guideline {\textquotedblleft}Bushfire spray systems for the protection from ember attack{\textquotedblright} to provide guidance to the Australian community when considering or installing a bushfire spray system. This report has been developed to provide a science basis and discussion for positions taken in the draft guideline. The analysis will address those sections of the guideline where concern has been raised during the drafting process as to its appropriateness. The areas requiring analysis are: {\textbullet} Water supply duration {\textbullet} Combustibility of tanks {\textbullet} Automatic activation requirements {\textbullet} Pump performance under adverse conditions {\textbullet} Pipe material selection {\textbullet} Pipe location {\textbullet} Water source/quality {\textbullet} Spray nozzle design and performance {\textbullet} Spray system to protect against surrounding infrastructure ignition}, author = {Mark Potter and Justin Leonard} } @article {BF-2925, title = {Temporal variation in pools of amino acids, inorganic and microbial N in a temperate grassland soil}, journal = {Soil Biology and Biochemistry}, volume = {42}, year = {2010}, month = {2/2010}, pages = {353 - 359}, abstract = {Plants can take up intact amino acids, even in competition with soil microbes, yet we lack detailed information on which amino acids dominate the soil and whether amino acid composition varies seasonally. This study tested the hypotheses that 1) the pool of amino acid N is generally larger than inorganic N; 2) temporal changes in the concentration of amino acid N is related to changes in the size of the microbial N pool; and 3) amino acid N is dominated by simple, neutral amino acids during warm months, whereas during cold months the amino acid N is dominated by more complex aromatic and basic amino acids. Approximately every month for two years we collected soil from a temperate, sub-alpine grassland in the Snowy Mountains of Australia. We quantified exchangeable pools of amino acids, nitrate and ammonium in 1 M KCl extracts. Microbial N was quantified by chloroform fumigation. Averaged across the 21 monthly samples, nitrate was 13\% of the quantified pool of soluble non-protein N, ammonium was 34\% and amino acid N was 53\%. These data are consistent with our hypothesis that the pool of amino acid N is larger than inorganic N. There was substantial variation between months in concentrations of amino acids and inorganic N, but no clear temporal pattern. Microbial N did not vary between months, and thus changes in amino acid N were unrelated to microbial N. Principal components analysis indicated multivariate groupings of the different pools of N that were broadly indicative of function and/or biosynthetic relationships. Thus PCA identified a grouping of aromatic amino acids (Phe and Try) with amino acids derived from oxaloacetate (Asp, Ala, Val, Leu, Ile), and a second group comprising microbial N, nitrate and glycine. The pool of exchangeable amino acid N was dominated by Arg (26\% of amino N) Val (20\%) Gln (18\%), Try (8\%) and Asn (8\%). Contrary to our hypothesis, the composition of the amino acid pool did not vary in a consistent way between months, and there was no evidence simple amino acids were relatively more abundant in warm months and complex amino acids in cool months.}, doi = {10.1016/j.soilbio.2009.11.017}, author = {Warren, Charles R. and Taranto, MT} } @article {BF-2582, title = {Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {260}, year = {2010}, month = {08/2010}, pages = {948 - 964}, abstract = {Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National Carbon Accounting System which assumes 50\% woody fuel consumption. These models were assessed using field data collected as part of the woody fuel consumption project (WFCP) in south-west Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variability in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These datasets comprised data from south-west Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Combined the dataset represents a range of fire behaviour characteristic of prescribed burning conditions with a maximum fireline intensity of almost 4000 kW m-1. Woody fuel consumption was found to be highly variable between sites ranging from 9.1\% to 89.9\%. Relationships between woody fuel consumption and the primary model drivers were weak (maximum R2 = 0.097). Model evaluation statistics were best for the National Carbon Accounting Systems assumption of 50\% with a mean absolute error of 11.1\% fuel consumption and minimal bias (0.12). Nonetheless, this assumption does not capture large deviations where woody fuel consumption has been particularly high or low. The BURNUP model yielded the largest level of error when used with natural fuels however its predictive capacity improved when used with large modified fuel loads resulting from clearcut operations.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2010.06.007}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2505, title = {Using Fire History Data to Map Temporal Sequences of Fire Return Intervals and Seasons}, journal = {Fire Ecology}, volume = {6}, year = {2010}, month = {8/2010}, pages = {97 - 114}, abstract = {Analysis of complex spatio-temporal fire data is an important tool to assist the management and study of fire regimes. For fire ecologists, a useful visual aid to identify contrasting fire regimes is to map temporal sequences of data such as fire return intervals, seasons, and types (planned versus unplanned fire) across the landscape. However, most of the programs that map this information are costly and complex, requiring specialist training. We present a simple yet novel method for creating sequences of temporal data for mapping fire regimes using basic geographic information system (GIS) techniques and logical test functions in Microsoft{\textregistered} Excel 2003 (Microsoft, Bellevue, Washington, USA). Using fire history data (1972 to 2005) for southwestern Australia, we assigned integer classifications to fire return intervals (short, moderate, and long) and fire types and seasons (wildfires and prescribed burns in different seasons) and joined the integer classifications together to form a sequence of numbers representing the order of either fire return intervals or fire seasons in reverse time sequence. This sequence can be mapped in a GIS environment so that spatial dimensions formed by overlapping polygons are readily observed, and the temporal sequence of fire data within each polygon can be interpreted across the landscape. We applied the technique to examine experimental design options for investigating the effects of contrasting fire regimes on biota at the landscape scale. This investigation identified several important factors: 1) patterns were evident in fire types and seasons, 2) patterns were evident for fire return interval sequences, and 3) combining fire types and seasons with fire return intervals significantly constrained options for the study design. A visual analysis of this type highlights fire regime patterns in the landscape and permits a feasibility study for the development of study design options and the spatial arrangement of potential study sites.}, issn = {19339747}, doi = {10.4996/fireecology.0602097 }, author = {Wittkuhn, Roy and Hamilton, T} } @article {BF-2467, title = {Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {38}, year = {2010}, month = {01/2011}, pages = {112 - 124}, abstract = {Aim The aim of this study was to determine how spatial variation in vegetation type and landscape connectivity influence fire intervals in a semi-arid landscape with low relief and complex mosaics of woodland and shrubland vegetation. Location Our study focused on a 15,500-km2 area of relatively undisturbed and unmanaged land in south-western Australia, referred to as the Lake Johnston region. Methods We modelled fire-interval data from a 67-year (1940{\textendash}2006) digital fire history database using a two-parameter Weibull function, and tested for the effects of vegetation type and landscape connectivity on estimates of the length of fire intervals (Weibull parameter b) and the dependence of fire intervals on fuel age (Weibull parameter c). Results Vegetation type and landscape connectivity significantly influenced fire interval probability distributions. Fire intervals in shrublands (dense low shrub assemblage) were typically shorter (b = 46 years) and more dependent on fuel age (c = 2.33) than most other vegetation types, while fire intervals in open eucalypt woodlands were much longer (b = 405 years) and were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.36) than in shrub-dominated vegetation types. Areas adjacent to or surrounded by salt lakes burnt less frequently (b = 319 years) and fire intervals were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.48) compared with more exposed areas (e.g. b < 101 years, c > 1.68). Fire intervals in thickets (dense tall shrub assemblage) were longer (b = 101 years) than would be expected from fuel loads, most likely because they were protected from fire by surrounding fuel-limited woodlands. Main conclusions Fire intervals in south-western Australia are strongly influenced by spatial variation in vegetation (fuel structure) and landscape connectivity. The importance of fuel structure as a control of fire intervals in south-western Australia contrasts with other landscapes, where topographical gradients or climatic influences may override the effects of underlying vegetation. We found that, regardless of low relief, topographical features such as large salt lake systems limited the connectivity and spread of fire among landscape units in an analogous manner to lakes or mountainous features elsewhere.}, issn = {03050270}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02381.x}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Matthias M. Boer and Lachlan W. McCaw and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2496, title = {Work-family conflict and crossover in volunteer emergency service workers}, journal = {Work \& Stress}, volume = {24}, year = {2010}, month = {10/2010}, pages = {342 - 358}, abstract = {A growing literature indicates that organizational and work demands place pressure on the partners and families of volunteer workers as it does on paid workers. This study evaluated a conceptual model integrating workfamily conflict and stress crossover theoretical frameworks, to investigate the mechanisms by which emergency service volunteer work, specifically, predicts outcomes for the partners of volunteers. Matched data from 102 couples in which one partner was an Australian emergency services volunteer  firefighter, ambulance officer or emergency rescue volunteer  were analysed using structural equation modelling analyses. Findings suggested that one mechanism by which inter-role conflict related to partner adjustment was through elevated withdrawn marital behaviour and decreased intimacy reported by the couple, which indirectly affected partners{\textquoteright} distress. This finding regarding withdrawn behaviour appears to be novel and may also be applicable to paid workers. Alternative mechanisms involving role overload and angry marital behaviour were not supported. These findings extend limited research which has adapted organizational theory to understand processes affecting volunteer workers, and advance conceptual accounts of the mechanisms through which the partners and families of workers are impacted by inter-role conflict.}, doi = {10.1080/02678373.2010.532947}, author = {Sean Cowlishaw and Lynette Evans and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1024, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {39}, year = {2009}, month = {9/01/2009}, pages = {159-172}, url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v39/n2/p159-172/}, author = {Hasson, AEA and Graham A. Mills and Timbal, B and Kevin Walsh} } @article {BF-1030, title = {Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index.}, number = {CTR010}, year = {2009}, month = {6/30/2009}, pages = {84}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/4614205}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and De Groot, W} } @article {BF-2414, title = {Australian firefighters{\textquoteright} exposure to air toxics during bushfire burns of autumn 2005 and 2006}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {35}, year = {2009}, month = {02/2009}, pages = {342 - 352}, abstract = {Bushfire fighting is a hazardous occupation and control strategies are generally in place to minimize the hazards. However, little is known regarding firefighters{\textquoteright} exposure to bushfire smoke, which is a complex mixture of toxic gases and particles. In Australia, during the prescribed burning season, firefighters are likely to be exposed on a regular basis to bushfire smoke, but whether these exposures affect health has yet to be determined. There are a number of factors that govern whether exposure to smoke will result in short-term and/or long-term health problems, including the concentrations of air pollutants within the breathing zone of the firefighter, the exposure duration, and health susceptibility of the individual, especially for pre-existing lung or heart disease. This paper presents measurements of firefighters{\textquoteright} personal exposure to bushfire smoke, the first step within a risk management framework. It provides crucial information on the magnitude, extent and frequency of personal exposure to bushfire smoke for a range of typical scenarios. It is found that the primary air toxics of concern are carbon monoxide (CO), respirable particles and formaldehyde. Also, work activity is a major factor influencing exposure with exposure standards (both average and short-term limits) likely to be exceeded for activities such as suppression of spot fires, holding the fireline, and patrolling at the edge of a burn area in the urban{\textendash}rural interface.}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2008.08.011}, author = {Reisen, Fabienne and Brown, SK} } @article {BF-1308, title = {The balance between volunteer work and family roles: Testing a theoretical model of work-family conflict in the volunteer emergency services}, journal = {Australian Journal of Psychology}, year = {2009}, author = {Sean Cowlishaw and Lynette Evans and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1257, title = {Community safety programs for bushfire: What do they achieve, and how?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, number = {24}, year = {2009}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/(966BB47E522E848021A38A20280E2386)~ajem+24+2+community+safety.pdf/$file/ajem+24+2+community+safety.pdf}, author = {Elsworth, Gerald and Gilbert, John and Rhodes, Alan and Goodman, Helen} } @article {BF-2417, title = {Correlates of grass-species composition in a savanna woodland in northern Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Botany}, volume = {57}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Environmental features associated with the distribution of grass species are poorly known in tropical savannas, particularly at smaller spatial scales. The present study aimed to determine the relative influence of 11 environmental characteristics on grass-species composition in a savanna woodland in northern Australia. Environmental characteristics relating to woody-vegetation structure and soil, plus the long-term (14-year) fire frequency, were documented along an environmental gradient and compared with grass-species composition. Differences in grass-species composition, as well as richness and evenness, were related to differences in vegetation structure and edaphic characteristics. In particular, grass-species composition was most strongly related to plant-available moisture, the density of woody plants in the midstorey (2.0{\textendash}9.99 m height), and canopy and litter cover. Grass-species richness and evenness were extremely low in areas where midstorey density, canopy cover and litter cover were high, and where soil moisture content in the root zone of grasses was low. Differences in fire frequency also influenced grass-species composition, with areas that had experienced lower fire frequency during the previous 14 years having lower density of the annual grass Sorghum intrans (F.Muell. ex Benth.) and the perennial grass Heteropogon triticeus (R.Br.) Stapf, and increased dominance of the perennial Eriachne triseta Nees ex Steud. The results of the present study demonstrate a complex interplay between bottom-up environmental factors and top-down processes such as fire, as determinants of grass-species composition in tropical savannas}, doi = {10.1071/BT08120}, author = {Scott, Ken and Setterfield, SA and Andersen, A. N. and Douglas, MM} } @article {BF-1057, title = {Creation of a fire history database for southwestern Australia: giving old maps new life in a geographic information system}, journal = {Conservation Science Western Australia}, year = {2009}, month = {Accepted 26/06/2}, author = {Hamilton, T and Wittkuhn, Roy and Carpenter, C} } @article {BF-1015, title = {Development of satellite vegetation indices to assess grassland curing across Australia and New Zealand}, year = {2009}, type = {Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography}, url = {http://www.springerlink.com/content/h7r2vw8278m1l324/}, author = {Martin, Danielle and Ian F Grant and David Jones and Stuart AJ Anderson} } @article {BF-2422, title = {Do logging, followed by burning, and wildfire differ in their decadal scale effects on tall open-forest bryophytes and vascular plants?}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {258}, year = {2009}, month = {08/2009}, pages = {679 - 686}, abstract = {There has been only one time-controlled study, in Canada, comparing the occurrence of bryophyte species in forests regenerating after wildfire with that in those regenerating after logging and regeneration burning. Previous work on vascular plants in Tasmanian tall open-forest dominated by Eucalyptus showed that filmy ferns were less common in areas that had been logged and regeneration burned than in areas burned by wildfire two decades after the events, which suggested that hygrophilous species, such as bryophytes, might be vulnerable to this silvicultural system. Bryophytes, vascular plants structural and environmental data were collected from 50 sites, which had been burned in wildfires or clearfelled and burned by prescribed fires 31{\textendash}39 years previously. Eighteen percent of the vascular plant species for which it was possible to develop a multiple regression model had logging/wildfire as a component, whereas the equivalent figure for bryophytes was 17\%. The negative effects of logging were concentrated on the more hygrophilous species, and the positive effects were concentrated on the basal area of tree species and some of the mosses dependent on them. We conclude that wildfire and logging followed by regeneration burning result in vegetation differences that last more than three decades after disturbance, that these differences are no more pronounced for bryophytes than for vascular plants, and that hygrophilous taxa are favoured more by wildfire than logging.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.05.003}, author = {Turner, Perpetua A.M. and Kirkpatrick, JB} } @article {BF-2404, title = {Ecological thresholds and the status of fire-sensitive vegetation in western Arnhem Land, northern Australia: implications for management}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {127}, abstract = {The paper examines the application of the ecological thresholds concept to fire management issues concerning fire-sensitive vegetation types associated with the remote, biodiversity-rich, sandstone Arnhem Plateau, in western Arnhem Land, monsoonal northern Australia. In the absence of detailed assessments of fire regime impacts on component biota such as exist for adjoining Nitmiluk and World Heritage Kakadu National Parks, the paper builds on validated 16-year fire history and vegetation structural mapping products derived principally from Landsat-scale imagery, to apply critical ecological thresholds criteria as defined by fire regime parameters for assessing the status of fire-sensitive habitat and species elements. Assembled data indicate that the 24 000 km2 study region today experiences fire regimes characterised generally by high annual frequencies (mean = 36.6\%) of large (>10 km2) fires that occur mostly in the late dry season under severe fire-weather conditions. Collectively, such conditions substantially exceed defined ecological thresholds for significant proportions of fire-sensitive indicator rain forest and heath vegetation types, and the long-lived obligate seeder conifer tree species, Callitris intratropica. Thresholds criteria are recognised as an effective tool for informing ecological fire management in a variety of geographic settings.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08008}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {BF-2401, title = {Effect of protective filters on fire fighter respiratory health: field validation during prescribed burns}, journal = {American Journal of Industrial Medicine}, volume = {52}, year = {2009}, month = {01/2009}, pages = {76 - 87}, abstract = {Abstract Background Bushfire smoke contains a range of air toxics. To prevent inhalation of these toxics, fire fighters use respiratory equipment. Yet, little is known about the effectiveness of the equipment on the fire ground. Experimental trials in a smoke chamber demonstrated that, the particulate/organic vapor/formaldehyde (POVF) filter performed best under simulated conditions. This article reports on the field validation trials during prescribed burns in Western Australia. Methods Sixty-seven career fire fighters from the Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia were allocated one of the three types of filters. Spirometry, oximetry, self-reported symptom, and personal air sampling data were collected before, during and after exposure to bushfire smoke from prescribed burns. Results Declines in FEV1 and SaO2 were demonstrated after 60 and 120 min exposure. A significant higher number of participants in the P filter group reported increases in respiratory symptoms after the exposure. Air sampling inside the respirators demonstrated formaldehyde levels significantly higher in the P filter group compared to the POV and the POVF filter group. Conclusions The field validation trials during prescribed burns supported the findings from the controlled exposure trials in the smoke chamber. Testing the effectiveness of three types of different filters under bushfire smoke conditions in the field for up to 2 hr demonstrated that the P filter is ineffective in filtering out respiratory irritants. The performance of the POV and the POVF filter appears to be equally effective after 2 hr bushfire smoke exposure in the field.}, doi = {10.1002/ajim.20651}, author = {De Vos, Annemarie J.B.M. and Cook, Angus and Devine, Brian and Thompson, Philip J. and Weinstein, Philip} } @article {BF-2406, title = {Estimating fractional cover of photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and bare soil in the Australian tropical savanna region upscaling the EO-1 Hyperion and MODIS sensors}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {113}, year = {2009}, month = {05/2009}, pages = {928 - 945}, abstract = {Quantitative estimation of fractional cover of photosynthetic vegetation (fPV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (fNPV) and bare soil (fBS) is critical for natural resource management and for modeling carbon dynamics. Accurate estimation of fractional cover is especially important for monitoring and modeling savanna systems, subject to highly seasonal rainfall and drought, grazing by domestic and native animals, and frequent burning. This paper describes a method for resolving fPV, fNPV and fBS across the ~ 2 million km2 Australian tropical savanna zone with hyperspectral and multispectral imagery. A spectral library compiled from field campaigns in 2005 and 2006, together with three EO-1 Hyperion scenes acquired during the 2005 growing season were used to explore the spectral response space for fPV, fNPV and fBS. A linear unmixing approach was developed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Cellulose Absorption Index (CAI). Translation of this approach to MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) scale was assessed by comparing multiple linear regression models of NDVI and CAI with a range of indices based on the seven MODIS bands in the visible and shortwave infrared region (SWIR) using synthesized MODIS surface reflectance data on the same dates as the Hyperion acquisitions. The best resulting model, which used NDVI and the simple ratio of MODIS bands 7 and 6 (SWIR3/SWIR2), was used to generate a time series of fractional cover from 16 day MODIS nadir bidirectional reflectance distribution function-adjusted reflectance (NBAR) data from 2000{\textendash}2006. The results obtained with MODIS NBAR were validated against grass curing measurement at ten sites with good agreement at six sites, but some underestimation of fNPV proportions at four other sites due to substantial sub-pixel heterogeneity. The model was also compared with remote sensing measurements of fire scars and showed a good matching in the spatio-temporal patterns of grass senescence and posterior burning. The fractional cover profiles for major grassland cover types showed significant differences in relative proportions of fPV, fNPV and fBS, as well as large intra-annual seasonal variation in response to monsoonal rainfall gradients and soil type. The methodology proposed here can be applied to other mixed tree-grass ecosystems across the world. }, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2009.01.006}, author = {Guerschman, Juan Pablo and Hill, Michael J. and Luigi J. Renzullo and Damian J. Barrett and Marks, Alan S. and Botha, Elizabeth J.} } @article {BF-2407, title = {Eucalypt smoke and wildfires: Temperature dependent emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds}, journal = {International Journal of Mass Spectrometry}, volume = {279}, year = {2009}, month = {01/2009}, pages = {126 - 133}, abstract = {Eucalypt contributions to biogenic sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Australia are estimated at teragram (Tg = 1012 g) amounts each year. Biogenic VOCs include plant-specific isoprenoids (isoprene and a range of terpenes) and other reactive organic compounds (i.e., acids, aldehydes and ketones). Atmospheric reactions of VOCs are numerous and many have significant environmental impact. Wildfires increase both the amounts of VOCs released and the complexity of their reactions. Proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) and direct analysis in real time (DART) mass spectrometry were applied to analyze release of VOCs as a function of temperatures ranging from ambient to combustion. PTR-MS enabled trace level analysis of VOCs from a complex forest atmosphere and revealed the release of terpenes associated with leaf damage during a storm. Temperature profile studies revealed ion abundances (i.e., emissions of VOCs) could be correlated with boiling points and vapor pressures of specific compounds. PTR-MS analysis of VOCs resulting from heating fresh leaf (E. grandis) material suggested that emissions of protonated methanol (m/z 33) and protonated acetaldehyde (m/z 45) were greatest at not, vert, similar60 {\textdegree}C while m/z 137 and 153 (associated with a series of terpenes) showed monotonic increases in ion abundance over a wide temperature range from ambient to 200 {\textdegree}C. GCMS analysis of fresh and senescent leaves of E. grandis showed that a series of VOCs (ethylvinylketone, diethylketone, 2-ethylfuran, hexanal and hexenals) are present only in fresh leaves while several terpenes (α and β pinenes, α-phellandrene, eucalyptol, γ-terpinene) were common in both. DART analysis of fresh leaf and stem of E. sideroxylon identified tissue-specific VOCs (e.g., methanol and ethanol were more abundant in stems). PTR-MS combustion studies of senescent leaves (E. grandis) identified two distinct, temperature-dependent VOC compositions. Before the appearance of smoke, the composition of VOCs remained consistent and correlated well with various naturally occurring isoprenoids, as observed in temperature profile studies. Sampling of eucalypt smoke suggested ions (m/z 75, 85, 87, 99, 111 and 125) correlated with protonated mass of oxygenated aldehydes, ketones, furans and substituted benzenes, and were due to pyrolysis of polycarbohydrates (cellulose and lignin) that are common in many types of wood.}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijms.2008.10.027}, author = {Maleknia, Simin D. and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2580, title = {Evaluating Bushfire Community Education Programs}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The Evaluation of Bushfire Community Education Programs (Project C7) was a significant five year project in Program C of the Bushfire CRC. The objective of this project was to develop and test a comprehensive framework and methodology for evaluating the broad range of bushfire community safety policy and programs in Australia, highlighting (i) an approach that has the potential to lead to a comprehensive and sound evidence base for identifying which policies and programs work best, for whom and in what settings; and (ii) the provision of a consultative and collaborative approach to working with end-users and community members. The project was conducted by a team of researchers at RMIT University in Melbourne. The research team worked closely with a wide range of fire and emergency service agencies around Australia throughout the project{\textquoteright}s lifespan. The report is divided into two main sections: {\textbullet} Part A provides an overview of the project. It summarises the key background and policy behind the community safety approach, and provides the results of a theory based approach to the evaluation of bushfire community safety programs; {\textbullet} Part B includes a summary of the training materials developed for fire agencies by C7. It includes an overview of two courses on evaluating community education and an introduction to the evaluation handbook. {\textbullet} Two CD-ROMs include the reference materials in full for Parts A and B. C7 has successfully delivered a comprehensive evaluation framework for bushfire community safety programs. In doing so the project has documented the current community safety approach in Australia and developed an evidence base for evaluating bushfire community education, awareness and engagement programs. In addition, an evaluation methodology has been developed, trialled and documented that will enhance the capacity and capabilities of fire agencies to plan and implement program evaluations on the basis of a rigorous theoretically informed approach. This is vital as the community safety approach becomes increasingly embedded in the policy and planning for bushfire community safety across Australia.}, author = {John Fien} } @article {BF-1048, title = {Evaluation criteria for large air tankers in Australia}, year = {2009}, month = {Nov-09}, pages = {20 pages}, institution = {BCRC / CSIRO}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-2405, title = {Family functioning predicts outcomes for veterans in treatment for chronic posttraumatic stress disorder.}, journal = {Journal of Family Psychology}, volume = {23}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {531 - 539}, abstract = {A longitudinal framework was used to examine the competing hypotheses of (a) whether family functioning predicts changes in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms or (b) whether PTSD symptoms predict changes in family functioning. Veterans (N = 311) admitted to a treatment program completed a series of questionnaires at 3 time points: at intake, from intake to completion of a treatment program, and at the 6-month follow-up. Alcohol use and general mental health symptoms were also measured at intake. A cross-lagged panel model using structural equation modeling analyses indicated that family functioning was a moderate predictor of PTSD symptoms at posttreatment and at the 6-month follow-up. PTSD was not a significant predictor of family functioning across time and alcohol use, and general mental health symptoms did not affect the overall findings. Further analyses of PTSD symptom clusters indicated that the avoidance symptom cluster was most strongly related to family functioning. Targeting family relationships for treatment may be important in the future for veterans with PTSD}, doi = {10.1037/a0015877}, author = {Lynette Evans and Sean Cowlishaw and Hopwood, Malcolm} } @conference {BF-2462, title = {Field-based fire behaviour research: past and future roles}, booktitle = {MODSIM Congress}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, url = {http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/A4/cruz.pdf}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-1112, title = {Global climate change and litter decomposition: more frequent fire slows decomposition and increases the functional importance of inverterates.}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, year = {2009}, url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bsc/gcb/2009/00000015/00000012/art00013}, author = {Brennan, KEC and Christie, Fiona J. and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2489, title = {Guidelines for enhancing Incident Management Team communication in Incident Control Centres}, year = {2009}, abstract = {This report and accompanying guidelines were developed and submitted as BCRC Project D5 Commonwealth deliverable 22.2.3: Guidelines developed for enhancing Incident Management Team communication in Incident Control Centres. This report also complements a related piece of work on enhancing incident management communication through enhanced teamwork performance which is reported in Deliverable 22.1.4 A review of the strengths and weaknesses of observed IMT training with recommendations for improvement. A number of internal and external reviews and inquiries have identified the need for improvements in the facilities used as Incident Control Centres during a bushfire response. This report was produced to assist those with responsibility for establishing an Incident Control Centre to do so in such a way as to facilitate the exchange of clear, accurate and timely information. The report was based on information, and data, gathered during 2006 and 2008 by the D5 BCRC research team at the University of Tasmania. The report: {\textperiodcentered} Uses observational research to identify how Incident Control Centres could be improved to assist the flow of clear, accurate and timely information. {\textperiodcentered} Uses the AIIMS defined goals as the basis for understanding whether the Incident Control Centre is facilitating or impeding the work of the Incident Management Team. {\textperiodcentered} Brings together the observations of both researchers and practitioners in order to suggest practical guidelines for the establishment of an Incident Control Centre. {\textperiodcentered} Identifies six interconnected and interrelated areas of Incident Control Centre and Incident Management Team facilitation that require attention. {\textperiodcentered} Provides visual examples of many of the areas and issues identified as important. {\textperiodcentered} Provides a series of guidelines designed to assist those with responsibility for establishing an Incident Control Centre. {\textperiodcentered} Provides the rationale for the development of a checklist of actions that can be taken by those responsible for the establishment of an Incident Control Centre. The report identifies the following six areas which relate to the material configuration of the buildings utilized and the associated technologies associated with obstructing and/or hindering Incident Management Teams in their capacity to manage information in a clear, accurate and timely manner. The six areas identified are: 1. Building size and configuration 2. Role, Unit and Section identification 3. Movement of people 4. Fixed technologies 5. Shared information display 6. Lessons learned The report also has a section, Further comments, that provides some of the additional suggestions and feedback that was obtained from experienced Incident management personnel during the consultation phase of the report and accompanying guidelines, which do not fit within the scope of the current report but are interrelated issues.}, author = {Hickey, Greg and Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-1066, title = {Holocene palaeofire records in a high-level, proximal valley-fill (Wilson Bog), Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia}, journal = {The Holocene }, volume = {7}, number = {19}, year = {2009}, pages = {1017-1029}, url = {http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/short/19/7/1017}, author = {Solomon Buckman and Brownlie, KC and Bourman, RP and Murray-Wallace,CV and Morris, Rowena and Lachlan, TJ and Robertson, Alistar and Arnold, LJ and Cann, JH} } @article {BF-1320, title = {Impacts of emergency service volunteering on family members and relationships: Integrating work-family conflict and crossover models in the volunteer emergency services}, year = {2009}, author = {Sean Cowlishaw and Lynette Evans and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-2412, title = {Impacts of increased fire frequency and aridity on eucalypt forest structure, biomass and composition in southwest Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {258}, year = {2009}, month = {10/2009}, pages = {2136 - 2142}, abstract = {Water stress and fire disturbance can directly impact stand structure, biomass and composition by causing mortality and influencing competitive interactions among trees. However, open eucalypt forests of southwest Australia are highly resilient to fire and drought and may respond differently to increased fire frequency and aridity than forests dominated by non-eucalypt species. We measured the variation in stem density, basal area, stand biomass, sapwood area, leaf area and litterfall across 16 mixed jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) and marri (Corymbia calophylla) forest stands along an aridity gradient in southwest Australia that had variable fire histories. Fire frequency was defined as the total number of fires over a not, vert, similar30-year period and aridity as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to annual precipitation. Total stand biomass and sapwood area were predicted from diameter at breast height of individual jarrah and marri trees using allometric equations. Leaf area was estimated using digital cover photography. More arid and frequently burnt stands had higher stem density, especially of smaller trees, which were mainly jarrah. Overall, both standing biomass and leaf area decreased at more arid sites, while sapwood area was largely unaffected by aridity, suggesting that these stands respond to increased water limitation by decreasing their leaf area relative to their sapwood area. Biomass of marri was reduced at more arid and, to a lesser extent, at more frequently burnt stands. However, total stand biomass (jarrah and marri) and leaf area index did not vary with fire frequency, suggesting that less marri biomass (due to slower growth rates, higher mortality or less recruitment) was compensated by an increase in the density of jarrah trees (regeneration). We conclude that increased fire and drought shift tree species composition towards more fire-resistant species and result in denser stands of smaller trees. In contrast, total stand biomass declines with increasing aridity, but has no association with fire frequency.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.013}, author = {Pekin, BK and Matthias M. Boer and Macfarlane, C and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2415, title = {Improving estimates of savanna burning emissions for greenhouse accounting in northern Australia: limitations, challenges, applications}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {1}, abstract = {Although biomass burning of savannas is recognised as a major global source of greenhouse gas emissions, quantification remains problematic with resulting regional emissions estimates often differing markedly. Here we undertake a critical assessment of Australia{\textquoteright}s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) savanna burning emissions methodology. We describe the methodology developed for, and results and associated uncertainties derived from, a landscape-scale emissions abatement project in fire-prone western Arnhem Land, northern Australia. The methodology incorporates (i) detailed fire history and vegetation structure and fuels type mapping derived from satellite imagery; (ii) field-based assessments of fuel load accumulation, burning efficiencies (patchiness, combustion efficiency, ash retention) and N : C composition; and (iii) application of standard, regionally derived emission factors. Importantly, this refined methodology differs from the NGGI by incorporation of fire seasonality and severity components, and substantial improvements in baseline data. We consider how the application of a fire management program aimed at shifting the seasonality of burning (from one currently dominated by extensive late dry season wildfires to one where strategic fire management is undertaken earlier in the year) can provide significant project-based emissions abatement. The approach has wider application to fire-prone savanna systems dominated by anthropogenic sources of ignition.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08009}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Murphy, Brett P. and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Garry D. Cook and Stefan Maier and Andrew C. Edwards and Schatz, Jon and Brocklehurst, Peter} } @article {BF-2403, title = {Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index}, journal = {Meteorological Applications}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {n/a - n/a}, abstract = {A number of different methodologies are developed for examining the sensitivities of an index. These methodologies are applied to examine the characteristics of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using 8 years of gridded data throughout Australia. Percentile changes in input conditions show that the indices are similar to each other in that they are both most sensitive to wind speed, then secondly to relative humidity and thirdly to temperature. On a finer scale, a combination of the relationship between the indices and their partial derivatives shows that the FFDI is relatively less sensitive to wind speed and rainfall, and more sensitive to temperature and relative humidity, than the FWI. A method based on equilibrium values of the indices shows that the FFDI has a temperature threshold set by recent rainfall above which its sensitivity increases, resulting in some non-linearity in its relationship with the FWI. The sensitivity differences between the indices mean that the indices are complementary in that they each respond to a somewhat different set of conditions, as is shown by examining a number of recent fire events. The fire events also reveal that index values associated with dangerous fire behaviour can vary greatly between different regions. Methods to reduce the consequences of this variation are examined, including the use of index percentiles}, doi = {10.1002/met.170}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills and Finkele, K and De Groot, W} } @article {BF-2427, title = {Instructor beliefs and their mediation of instructor strategies}, journal = {Journal of Workplace Learning}, volume = {21}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {477 - 495}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} The overall aim of this research is to investigate how aspects of organizational culture enable or constrain the facilitation of learning in the workplace. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} A qualitative design was used involving 100 semi-structured interviews conducted with air traffic controllers operating in three centers in Australia. The data were analyzed using a phenomenological approach in an attempt to uncover the lived experience of those interviewed. Findings {\textendash} The study illustrates how elements of organizational culture evidenced in collectively held values and beliefs mediated the approaches used by on-the-job-training instructors. Three collectively held values and beliefs were identified: belief in ability; the value of performance in demonstrating ability; and the need to exude confidence. The degree to which instructors espoused these beliefs influences the type of instructional strategy they used. Three predominant strategies of engagement with the trainee were identified: acting on, working with, and working against the trainee. Practical implications {\textendash} The evidence here suggests that programs aimed at facilitating skills development for on-the-job-training instructors need to focus on the existing knowledge and beliefs of those personnel and to provide opportunities for challenge and confrontation of those belief systems. Originality/value {\textendash} The paper contributes to a growing understanding of the socio-cultural influences present in workplace learning and the role of stereotyping and power in enabling or constraining the learning in the workplace.}, doi = {10.1108/13665620910976757}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @book {BF-2409, title = {Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and CartographyInnovations in Remote Sensing and Photogrammetry}, year = {2009}, publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg}, organization = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg}, address = {Berlin, Heidelberg}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-540-93962-7}, editor = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {BF-2396, title = {Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires{\textemdash}Evidence from 50 years of active fire management in SW Australian forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {259}, year = {2009}, month = {12/2009}, pages = {132 - 142}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is advocated for the sustainable management of fire-prone ecosystems for its capacity to reduce fuel loads and mitigate large high-intensity wildfires. However, there is a lack of comprehensive field evidence on which to base predictions of the benefits of prescribed burning for meeting either wildfire hazard reduction or conservation goals. Australian eucalypt forests are among the very few forest types in the world where prescribed burning has been practised long enough and at a large enough spatial scale to quantify its effect on the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. Nevertheless even for Australian forests evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning remains fragmented and largely unpublished in the scientific literature. We analysed a 52-year fire history from a eucalypt forest region in south-western Australia to quantify the impact of prescribed burning on the incidence, extent and size distribution of wildfires. Quantile regression identified the longevity of the influence of prescribed fire treatments on wildfire incidence and extent. Anomalies in the frequency-size distribution of unplanned fires were identified through a relative risk mapping using kernel density estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of fuel age were quantified using patch metrics, while generalized additive models were applied to estimate effects of fuel age patterns on the incidence and extent of unplanned fire. Prescribed burning has pronouncedly changed the spatial distribution of fuel age in the study area and has significantly reduced the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. This effect on both the incidence and extent of unplanned fires was minimal for time lags greater than 6 years between fuel treatment and response. When averaged over 6-year periods, the annual extent of prescribed burning explained 24\% and 71\% of the variation in the mean annual number and extent of unplanned fires, respectively. The incidence of large unplanned fires was significantly less than the long-term average for the region when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a maximum and significantly more when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a minimum. Since the 1960s, the length of time sites remain unburned by wildfire has approximately doubled to not, vert, similar9 years. We found that each unit area reduction in unplanned fire required about four units of prescription fire. These findings concur with the observations of experienced field practitioners who identify the 6-year mark as effective at reducing wildfire hazard. Our findings provide strong empirical evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning for mitigating wildfire hazard in SW Australian forests. Ongoing research and development is needed to implement managed fire regimes that integrate wildfire mitigation with conservation of biodiversity and other environmental values.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.10.005}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Wittkuhn, Roy and Lachlan W. McCaw and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-1193, title = {A new Entoloma (Basidiomycetes, Agaricales) from Tasmania. }, journal = {Mycotaxon}, year = {2009}, author = {Gates, Gm and Horton, Bryony M.} } @article {BF-1118, title = {No detectable impacts of fequent burning on foliar C and N or insect herbivory in an Australian eucalypt forest}, journal = {Applied Vegetation Science}, year = {2009}, author = {Christie, Fiona J. and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2399, title = {No detectable impacts of frequent burning on foliar C and N or insect herbivory in an Australian eucalypt forest}, journal = {Applied Vegetation Science}, volume = {12}, year = {2009}, month = {08/2009}, pages = {376 - 384}, abstract = {Question: What is the effect of frequent low intensity prescribed fire on foliar nutrients and insect herbivory in an Australian eucalypt forest? Location: Lorne State Forest (Bulls Ground Frequent Burning Study), mid-north coast, New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Eighteen independent sites were studied representing three experimental fire regimes: fire exclusion (at least 45 years), frequently burnt (every 3 years for 35 years) and fire exclusion followed by the recent introduction of frequent burning (two fires in 6 years). Mature leaves were collected from the canopy of Eucalyptus pilularis trees at each site and analysed for nutrients and damage by invertebrate herbivores. Results: Almost 75\% of all leaves showed some signs of leaf damage. The frequency of past fires had no effect on carbon and nitrogen content of canopy leaves. These results were consistent with assessments of herbivore damage where no significant differences were found in the amount of invertebrate herbivory damage to leaves across fire treatments. Conclusions: This eucalypt forest displayed a high degree of resilience to both frequent burning and fire exclusion as determined by foliar nutrients and damage by insect herbivores. Fire frequency had no detectable ecological impact on this aspect of forest health.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01033.x}, author = {Christie, Fiona J. and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2418, title = {An overview of mountain meteorological effects relevant to fire behaviour and bushfire risk}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {737}, abstract = {Many of the processes that can occur in mountainous landscapes have the potential to significantly affect fire behaviour and bushfire risk in general. These processes can lead to otherwise unexpected fire behaviour and escalation in fire size and severity that could endanger firefighting crews and compromise suppression activities. Interaction of upper winds with rugged terrain can often result in highly variable and turbulent wind patterns and variations in temperature and humidity that can affect fire regimes in the long and short term. More generally, the effect of rugged terrain on atmospheric flows can give rise to complex dynamics and emergent properties that are discontinuous in nature. Hence, the {\textquoteleft}fire weather continuum{\textquoteright} that is often assumed in fire management practices is of reduced validity in mountainous or hilly landscapes. This paper presents an overview of the main elements of mountain meteorology relevant to fire weather and discusses the potential roles they may play in bushfire behaviour, development and risk. As such, the paper is intended to promote understanding, across the wide range of professions concerned with bushfire, of how mountain meteorological effects might contribute to fire potential and fire behaviour.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08041}, author = {Jason J. Sharples} } @article {BF-2413, title = {Patch-Occupancy Modeling as a Method for Monitoring Changes in Forest Floristics: a Case Study in Southeastern Australia}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, year = {2009}, month = {06/2009}, pages = {740 - 749}, abstract = {The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity is fundamental to demonstrating sustainable management practices of natural resources. Disturbance studies generally focus on responses at the plot scale, whereas landscape-scale responses are directly relevant to the development of sustainable forest management. Modeling changes in occupancy is one way to monitor landscape-scale responses. We used understory vegetation data collected over 16 years from a long-term study site in southeastern Australia. The site was subject to timber harvesting and frequent prescribed burning. We used occupancy models to examine the impacts of these disturbances on the distribution of 50 species of plants during the study. Timber harvesting influenced the distribution of 9 species, but these effects of harvesting were generally lost within 14 years. Repeated prescribed fire affected 22 species, but the heterogeneity of the burns reduced the predicted negative effects. Twenty-two species decreased over time independent of treatment, and only 5 species increased over time. These changes probably represent a natural response to a wildfire that occurred in 1973, 13 years before the study began. Occupancy modeling is a useful and flexible technique for analyzing monitoring data and it may also be suitable for inclusion within an adaptive-management framework for forest management.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01146.x}, author = {Trent Penman and Binns, Doug L. and Kavanagh, Rodney P.} } @article {BF-2397, title = {Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {932}, abstract = {The probability of large-fire (>=1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20{\textendash}84\% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.}, doi = {10.1071/WF08133}, author = {Ross Bradstock and Cohn, J. S. and Gill, A. Malcolm and Bedward, M. and Chris Lucas} } @article {BF-2400, title = {Premature Decline of Eucalyptus and Altered Ecosystem Processes in the Absence of Fire in Some Australian Forests}, journal = {The Botanical Review}, volume = {75}, year = {2009}, month = {6/2009}, pages = {191 - 202}, abstract = {We propose a model of {\textquoteleft}premature tree decline{\textquoteright} whereby an absence of fire hastens the mortality of overstorey eucalypts in some forests. This model is relevant to some temperate Australian forests in which fire regimes have shifted from relatively frequent before European settlement to infrequent following settlement. The increased development of midstorey vegetation and litter accumulation has occurred since European settlement in some specific examples of Australian forests and woodlands. Our model proposes that in the long absence of fire: 1. midstorey vegetation reduces the availability of soil water for eucalypts and; 2. Eucalypts have less access to P and/or cations as these elements become locked up in soil, litter and midstorey biomass. We highlight important knowledge gaps and argue that research into ecological burning, for eucalypt health and other values such as biodiversity, is urgently required. }, doi = {10.1007/s12229-009-9027-y}, author = {Close, DC and Davidson, N. J. and Johnson, DW and Abrams, MD and Hart, SC and Lunt, ID and Archibald, RD and Horton, Bryony M. and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2387, title = {Quantifying successional changes in response to forest disturbances}, journal = {Applied Vegetation Science}, volume = {11}, year = {2009}, month = {04/2008}, pages = {261 - 268}, abstract = {Question: Can dissimilarity measures of individual plots be used to forecast the driving factors among various anthropogenic disturbances influencing understorey successional changes? Location: Yambulla State Forest, south-eastern Australia (37{\textdegree}14{\textquoteright}S, 149{\textdegree}38{\textquoteright}E). Methods: Assessments of understorey vegetation communities were taken prior to anthropogenic disturbances and at three subsequent time periods representing a period of 15 years post-disturbance. Dissimilarities were calculated from the original assessment and modelled in a Bayesian framework to examine the influence of logging, number of prescribed burns and time. Results: All sites underwent significant changes over time independently of the imposed management regimes. Logging resulted in an immediate change in vegetation assemblage which decreased in the subsequent assessments. The number of prescribed fires brought greater change in the shrub vegetation assemblages, but less change in the ground species vegetation assemblages. Conclusions: The anthropogenic disturbances did have some role in the changes of vegetation assemblages but these were minimal. The ongoing changes appear to be a natural response to the last wildfire, which passed through the study area in 1973 (13 years prior to the study). Forest management practices should consider the influence of wildfire succession when planning for the conservation of biodiversity.}, issn = {14022001}, doi = {10.3170/2008-7-18424}, author = {Trent Penman and Binns, Doug L. and Kavanagh, Rodney P.} } @article {BF-1099, title = {Regeneration of Alpine Ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker) forest in Victoria after the 2003 Alpine Fires.}, journal = {Australian Journal of Forestry}, year = {2009}, author = {Bell, Tina and Ackland, A and Leslie, E and Weston, Chris} } @inbook {BF-1087, title = {Regional Real-Time Smoke Prediction Systems}, booktitle = {Developments in Environmental Science}, volume = {8}, year = {2009}, author = {Susan O{\textquoteright}Neil and Narasimhan, K. Larkin and Hoadley, Jeanne and Graham A. Mills and Vaughan, K. Joseph and Draxler, Roland and Rolph, Glenn and Ruminski, Mark and Susan Ferguson} } @article {BF-1283, title = {Relationship between fitness components and pack hike test.}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, number = {Apr-09}, year = {2009}, author = {Phillips, Matthew and Aaron Petersen and Abbiss, C.R. and Payne, W and Nichols, David and Brad Aisbett} } @article {BF-2398, title = {Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape{\textendash}fire{\textendash}succession models}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {147}, abstract = {The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAF{\'E}, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07085}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Robert E. Keane and Ross Bradstock and Davies, Ian D. and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Logan, Kimberley A. and Parsons, Russell A.} } @article {BF-2402, title = {Respiratory Irritants in Australian Bushfire Smoke: Air Toxics Sampling in a Smoke Chamber and During Prescribed Burns}, journal = {Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology}, volume = {56}, year = {2009}, month = {4/2009}, pages = {380 - 388}, abstract = {Abstract Bushfire smoke contains an array of organic and inorganic compounds, including respirable and inspirable particles, aldehydes, and carbon monoxide. These compounds have been found to be a health hazard for firefighters in the United States. Despite the high frequency of bushfires in Australia, analyses of bushfire smoke components are scarce. As part of an occupational health study investigating the respiratory health effects of bushfire smoke in firefighters, air toxics sampling was undertaken in a smoke chamber and during prescribed burns. Levels of formaldehyde and acrolein were demonstrated at respectively 60\% and 80\% of the Short Term Exposure Limit in the smoke chamber. Carbon monoxide levels exceeded the peak limit of 400 ppm significantly. Although concentrations were lower during the prescribed burns, the study shows that Australian bushfire smoke contains air toxics of concern and provides justification for further research into the levels of air toxics measured}, doi = {10.1007/s00244-008-9209-3}, author = {De Vos, Annemarie J.B.M. and Reisen, Fabienne and Cook, Angus and Devine, Brian and Weinstein, Philip} } @article {BF-2419, title = {A simple index for assessing fire danger rating}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {24}, year = {2009}, month = {06/2009}, pages = {764 - 774}, abstract = {Fire danger rating systems are used to assess the potential for bushfire occurrence, fire spread and difficulty of fire suppression. Typically, fire danger rating systems combine meteorological information with estimates of the moisture content of the fuel to produce a fire danger index. Fire danger indices are used to declare fire bans and to schedule prescribed burns, among other applications. In this paper a simple fire danger index F that is intuitive and easy to calculate is introduced and compared to a number of fire danger indices pertaining to different fuel types that are used in an operational setting in Australia and the United States. The comparisons suggest that F provides a plausible measure of fire danger rating and that it may be a useful pedagogical tool in the context of fire danger and fire weather.}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.004}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Rick McRae and Weber, Rodney and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2408, title = {Temperature-dependent release of volatile organic compounds of eucalypts by direct analysis in real time (DART) mass spectrometry}, journal = {Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry}, volume = {23}, year = {2009}, month = {08/2009}, pages = {2241 - 2246}, abstract = {A method is described for the rapid identification of biogenic, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by plants, including the analysis of the temperature dependence of those emissions. Direct analysis in real time (DART) enabled ionization of VOCs from stem and leaf of several eucalyptus species including E. cinerea, E. citriodora, E. nicholii and E. sideroxylon. Plant tissues were placed directly in the gap between the DART ionization source skimmer and the capillary inlet of the time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer. Temperature-dependent emission of VOCs was achieved by adjusting the temperature of the helium gas into the DART ionization source at 50, 100, 200 and 300{\textdegree}C, which enabled direct evaporation of compounds, up to the onset of pyrolysis of plant fibres (i.e. cellulose and lignin). Accurate mass measurements facilitated by TOF mass spectrometry provided elemental compositions for the VOCs. A wide range of compounds was detected from simple organic compounds (i.e. methanol and acetone) to a series of monoterpenes (i.e. pinene, camphene, cymene, eucalyptol) common to many plant species, as well as several less abundant sesquiterpenes and flavonoids (i.e. naringenin, spathulenol, eucalyptin) with antioxidant and antimicrobial properties. The leaf and stem tissues for all four eucalypt species showed similar compounds. The relative abundances of methanol and ethanol were greater in stem wood than in leaf tissue suggesting that DART could be used to investigate the tissue-specific transport and emissions of VOCs}, doi = {10.1002/rcm.4133}, author = {Maleknia, Simin D. and Vail, Teresa M. and Cody, Robert B. and Sparkman, David O. and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-1046, title = {Aerial Firefighting International Best Practice: Report of visit to France, Canada, and USA, August- September 2006}, year = {2008}, institution = {NAFC/ AFAC}, url = {http://www.nafc.org.au/portal/DesktopModules/ViewDocument.aspx?DocumentID=108}, author = {NAFC} } @article {BF-1035, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Fire Weather in Southeast Australia}, volume = {CTR007, }, year = {2008}, month = {5/14/2009}, pages = {86pp}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_007.pdf}, author = {Hasson, AEA and Graham A. Mills and Timbal, B and Kevin Walsh} } @article {BF-2394, title = {Big fires and their ecological impacts in Australian savannas: size and frequency matters}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {768}, abstract = {Savannas are the most fire-prone of the earth{\textquoteright}s major biomes. The availability of various broad-scale satellite-derived fire mapping and regional datasets provides a framework with which to examine the seasonality, extent and implications of large fires with particular reference to biodiversity values in the tropical savannas of northern Australia. We document the significance of savanna fires in the fire-prone {\textquoteleft}Top End{\textquoteright} region of the Northern Territory, Australia, using 9 years (1997{\textendash}2005) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)- and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+)-derived fire mapping. Fire (patch) sizes from both AVHRR- and Landsat-scale mapping increased through the calendar year associated with progressive curing of grass and litter fuels. Fire frequency data at both satellite sensor scales indicate that regional fire regimes in higher rainfall regions are dominated by large (>1000 km2) fires occurring typically at short (~2{\textendash}3 years) fire return intervals. In discussion, we consider the ecological implications of these patch size distributions on regional fire-sensitive biota. Collectively, assembled data illustrate that many northern Australian savanna flora, fauna and habitats embedded within the savanna matrix are vulnerable to extensive and frequent fires, especially longer-lived obligate seeder plant taxa and relatively immobile vertebrate fauna with small home ranges.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07150}, author = {Yates, Cameron P. and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {BF-2388, title = {Changes in understorey plant species richness following logging and prescribed burning in shrubby dry sclerophyll forests of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {04/2008}, pages = {197 - 210}, abstract = {The impacts of prescribed burning and timber harvesting on species diversity have been the subject of considerable debate. The temporal and spatial scale of these disturbances often presents major limitations to many studies. Here we present the medium-term results of a planned long-term study examining the impacts of logging and prescribed burning on the understorey floristic richness in shrubby dry sclerophyll forest in the south-east of New South Wales, Australia. Generalized estimating equations were used to model the effect of environmental factors and disturbance variables on species richness at the coupe (\~{}30 ha) and plot (\~{}0.01 ha) scale. At the plot scale, fire effects on separate components of the vegetation were broadly consistent with other studies, with frequent fire resulting in a relative increase of species richness for species less than 1 m in height and a decline of larger species taller than this height. At the coupe scale, there was no decline in richness of larger shrub species, possibly owing to the spatial heterogeneity of fire frequency at this scale. Logging resulted in significantly greater species richness in the shrub layer, but had no significant effect on species richness in the ground layer. During the study period, there was a general decline in plant species richness at both coupe and plot scales which occurred independently of imposed management regimes. This is thought to be related to a natural succession following wildfire, and may be due to the absence of high-intensity fire in the study area since 1973, or to an effect related to season of burning.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2007.01809.x}, author = {Trent Penman and Binns, Doug L. and Shiels, RJ and Allen, RM and Kavanagh, Rodney P.} } @article {BF-1214, title = {Community engagement: Weather matters in Indigenous communities}, year = {2008}, month = {4/02/2008}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, type = {Unpublished report }, url = {http://www.tesag.jcu.edu.au/CDS/Pages/Bushfirereports_CRC/BRACS_RIBS\%20PROJECT\%20REPORT\%20Final.pdf}, author = {Cottrell, Alison and Lowe, D and Spillman, M} } @article {BF-2379, title = {Development of fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {194}, abstract = {A dataset of 42 experimental fires in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands was used to develop fuel models to describe pine litter and understorey surface fuel complexes. A backtracking calibration procedure quantified the surface fuel bed characteristics that best explained the observed rate of fire spread. The study suggested the need for two distinct fuel models to adequately characterise the variability in fire behaviour in this fuel type. In these heterogeneous fuel beds the fuel models do not necessarily represent the inventoried average fuel conditions. Evaluation against the modelling data produced mean absolute errors of 0.8 and 0.6 m min{\textendash}1 in rate of spread, respectively, for the litter and understorey fuel models, with little evidence of bias. The fuel models predicted the rate of spread of a validation dataset with comparable error. Comparison of the behaviour and evaluation statistics produced by the study fuel models with fuel models developed from inventoried fuel data alone revealed an improvement on model performance for the current study approach for the litter fuel model and comparable behaviour for the understorey one. We examined model behaviour through comparative analysis with models used operationally to predict fire spread in pine stands. Large departures from model behaviour essentially occur when the models are exercised outside the range of the model development dataset. The discrepancies in predicted fire behaviour were hypothesised to arise not from differences in fuel complex structure but from the selected functional relationships that determine the effect of wind and fuel moisture on rate of spread. }, doi = {10.1071/WF07009}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Fernandes, Paulo M.} } @book {BF-2393, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 23 Managing Smoke from Wildfires and Prescribed Burning in Southern Australia}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {535 - 550}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {In Australia the responsibility for management of forests and other public lands rests largely with state governments, and multiple government agencies may be involved in fire management. Whether resulting from wildfire, fuel reduction, or silvicultural operations, biomass burning often stimulates community concerns about hazards from fine particulates and chemical compounds contained in smoke. Management practices and community perceptions of smoke from biomass burning differ from region to region according to social and environmental factors. Recognition of the need for a response to concerns has led to the development of a smoke management research program within the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, in conjunction with fire and land management agencies and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau). This program aims to assist land management planning by predicting where smoke from scheduled burns would be transported, thus providing the opportunity to avoid burning in situations where there is potential for adverse community impact. The primary tool provided is a dispersion model forecast using input from the Bureau{\textquoteright}s operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Decision tools are applied in a similar manner for prescribed burning and wildfires and have been used by agencies to provide community advice and to avoid smoke hazards during aircraft operations. We investigated strategies used by land management agencies to minimize community impact of smoke from prescribed burns, and studied the way in which the dispersion model forecasts are integrated into their decision support systems. Included are details of HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory{\textquoteright}s (HYSPLIT) configuration, several examples of its use in prescribed and wildfire events, and the research direction being pursued to improve both the quality of the dispersion forecasts and to enhance the use of these forecasts in agency planning.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900023-5}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills and Lachlan W. McCaw and Brown, T} } @book {BF-2375, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 14 Smoke from Wildfires and Prescribed Burning in Australia: Effects on Human Health and Ecosystems}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {289 - 316}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {Much of Australia is seasonally hot and dry, and fuel beds can become very flammable. Biomass burning ranges from annual savanna fires in the north to sporadic but extensive forest fires in the south. In addition, prescribed burning (the controlled application of fire) is being used more frequently as a means of reducing fuel loads, for maintenance of plant and animal biodiversity and in forestry practices. Despite this and in comparison to the Northern Hemisphere, there are few Australian studies of the production or composition of smoke from biomass burning. There is also relatively minimal Australian literature detailing the effect of wildfire smoke on human health and flora and fauna. Most of the literature dealing with smoke and human health issues in Australia outline epidemiological studies that document the incidence of hospital visits and admissions during wildfire events. The causal link between smoke and respiratory illness is yet to be established. The bulk of the publications dealing with ecological effects of smoke are concerned with germination of seed, with little information available on the direct effects of components of smoke on the physiology and biochemistry of plants, animals, invertebrates, or microorganisms. We will outline the knowledge of emissions and effects of smoke from prescribed and wildland fire in Australia on human health and the environment and will indicate potential areas for future research. In addition, a large proportion of the vegetation of Australia is composed of forests dominated by native species of Eucalyptus and Acacia, while large expanses of plantations are dominated by single species of Eucalyptus, and the production of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by such vegetation is substantial. Thus, we will also outline an emerging research area in which the links among the production of VOCs by native Australian species, environmental conditions, and VOCs found in smoke produced from burning native vegetation are explored.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900014-4}, author = {Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @book {BF-2384, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 22 Regional Real-Time Smoke Prediction Systems}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {499 - 534}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {Several real-time smoke prediction systems have been developed worldwide to help land managers, farmers, and air quality regulators balance land management needs against smoke impacts. Profiled here are four systems that are currently operational for regional domains for North America and Australia, providing forecasts to a well-developed user community. The systems link fire activity data, fuels information, and consumption and emissions models, with weather forecasts and dispersion models to produce a prediction of smoke concentrations from prescribed fires, wildfires, or agricultural fires across a region. The USDA Forest Service{\textquoteright}s BlueSky system is operational for regional domains across the United States and obtains prescribed burn information and wildfire information from databases compiled by various agencies along with satellite fire detections. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) smoke prediction system is initialized with satellite fire detections and is operational across North America. Washington State University{\textquoteright}s ClearSky agricultural smoke prediction system is operational in the states of Idaho and Washington, and burn location information is input via a secure Web site by regulators in those states. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology smoke prediction system is operational for regional domains across Australia for wildfires and prescribed burning. Operational uses of these systems are emphasized as well as the approaches to evaluate their performance given the uncertainties associated with each system{\textquoteright}s subcomponents. These real-time smoke prediction systems are providing a point of interagency understanding between land managers and air regulators from which to negotiate the conflicting needs of ecological fire use while minimizing air quality health impacts.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900022-3}, author = {Susan O{\textquoteright}Neil and N Larkin and Hoadley, Jeanne and Graham A. Mills and Vaughan, K. Joseph and Draxler, Roland and Rolph, Glenn and Ruminski, Mark and Susan Ferguson} } @article {BF-2381, title = {Efficient simulation of wildfire spread on an irregular grid}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {614}, abstract = {A cell-based wildfire simulator that uses an irregular grid is presented. Cell-based methods are simpler to implement than fire front propagation methods but have traditionally been plagued by fire shape distortion caused by the fire only being able to travel in certain directions. Using an irregular grid randomises the error introduced by the grid, so that the shape of simulated fire spread is independent of the direction of the wind with respect to the underlying grid. The cell-based fire spread simulator is implemented using discrete event simulation, which is a much more efficient computational method than conventional wildfire simulation techniques because computing resources are not used in repeatedly computing small updates to parts of the fire whose dynamics change infrequently, namely those areas of a fire that move slowly. The resulting simulator is comparable in accuracy with traditional fire front propagation schemes but is much faster and can therefore be used as an engine for fire simulation applications that require large numbers of simulations, such as in the role of a risk analysis engine.}, doi = {10.1071/WF06147}, author = {Johnston, P and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {BF-1052, title = { Efficient simulation of wildfire spread on an irregular grid}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, number = {17, }, year = {2008}, month = {10/08/2008}, pages = {614-627}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF06147.htm}, author = {Johnston, P and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {BF-1002, title = {Existing fire behaviour models under-predict the rate of spread of summer fires in open jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest.}, journal = {Australian Forestry }, volume = {71}, number = {1}, year = {2008}, month = {3/22/2008}, pages = {16-26}, url = {http://www.forestry.org.au/pdf/pdf-members/afj/AFJ\%202008\%20v71/1/04McCaw.pdf}, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and J.S. Gould and Cheney, NP} } @mastersthesis {BF-2589, title = {Fire, families and decisions}, volume = {MSc}, year = {2008}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Masters}, abstract = { This research explores the life experiences of families and couples who lived through the Wangary fire (South Australia, January 2005). Examining the bushfire experience from a domestic perspective is long overdue. Open-ended interviews were conducted with thirty-eight couples and families across the fire-affected region on the Lower Eyre Peninsula. A shortlist of fourteen were analysed in detail and they form the foundation of this thesis. These bushfire narratives include the perspectives of farming and non-farming families and cover a wide spectrum of circumstances and demographics. Five of the fourteen families lost their homes in the Wangary fire. Critical decision-making and the presence of children is at the heart of this case study. How the presence of babies and young children influences family decision-making, in advance of or during a bushfire, has not been considered or studied in any detail within the Australian research landscape. Exploring the differences of experience between women with young families and older women confirms the primary weakness of the national bushfire safety ({\textquoteright}stay or go{\textquoteright}) policy. Gender and generation were the two defining factors that informed how people responded to and recovered from the Wangary fire. The perspective of younger people, within the context of bushfire research, has been neglected in the past; this case study incorporates their views and thoughts. It is hoped that insights gleaned from these bushfire narratives will encourage the enhancement of the national {\textquoteright}stay or go{\textquoteright} policy. }, url = {http://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:6783}, author = {Mae Proudley} } @article {BF-2385, title = {Fire resilience of ant assemblages in long-unburnt savanna of northern Australia}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {11/2008}, pages = {830 - 838}, abstract = {Tropical savannas and rainforests contrast in their flammability and the fire resilience of their associated species. While savanna species generally exhibit high resilience to burning, there is much debate about the fire resilience of forest-associated species, and the persistence of forest patches in a flammable savanna matrix. Where fire has been excluded, savanna tends on a trajectory towards forest, with an increase in forest-associated plants and animal species. This study tested the idea that given the high proportion of forest-associated taxa in long-unburnt savanna, the fauna of these areas would be expected to exhibit less resilience to fire than the fauna in frequently burnt savannas. The study investigated the immediate and short-term effects on ant assemblages of re-introducing fire into long-unburnt savanna in northern Australia. The ant fauna exhibited high resistance to fires, with no significant short-term change in mean abundance or species richness; instead, seasonality had a far stronger influence on overall ant activity. Fire caused dramatic declines in dominance of the patchily distributed forest-associated species Oecophylla smaragdina and Papyrius sp., but had no effect on overall dominance by open savanna species of Iridomyrmex. Dominance by Iridomyrmex pallidus declined, but this was compensated for by increases in I. reburrus, while two other species of Iridomyrmex showed no change. This indicates a high level of functional redundancy among dominant species of Iridomyrmex, which universally dominate open savanna communities, but not of dominant forest-associated species. Overall, our findings demonstrate a high degree of fire-resilience of the long-unburnt savanna ant fauna. Despite the occurrence of forest-associated species, the high proportion of savanna species persisting in this habitat means that long-unburnt savanna retains the general response characteristics of frequently burnt savanna.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2008.01848.x}, author = {Parr, CL and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-1111, title = {Germination responses of a dry sclerophyll forest soil stored seed bank to fire related cues.}, journal = {Cunninghamia}, number = {10}, year = {2008}, month = {12/02/2008}, pages = {547-555}, abstract = {Fire is an integral component of many ecosystems worldwide. Many plant species require fire related cues to trigger germination, primarily heat and smoke. Despite the importance of this process, the responses of many Australian species to these cues are unknown. Without this knowledge fire management strategies may be developed that are inappropriate for individual species and communities. In this study we examined the responses of a dry Eucalypt forest seed bank to heat and smoke germination cues. Analysis was possible for 48 taxa within the soil seed bank with 34 of these showing a response to one or both of the germination cues. Ten species responded to the heat treatment, eleven responded to the smoke treatment and thirteen species responded to both the heat and smoke treatments. Germination cues acted independently for all species considered. Results in this study were consistent with published reports for most species, although some differences were seen at the species and genus level. The study highlights the importance of fire-related cues in enhancing germination of a large proportion of the species occurring in dry Eucalypt forests.}, url = {http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/research/areas/fre/scientific-outputs/2008/1386}, author = {Trent Penman and Binns, Doug L. and Shiels, RJ and Allen, RM and Plummer, H} } @article {BF-1256, title = {Glimpses of {\textquoteleft}community{\textquoteright} through the lens of a small fire event}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, year = {2008}, month = {Feb-08}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/EMA/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/\%28A80860EC13A61F5BA8C1121176F6CC3C\%29\%7EPages+from+AJEM_Feb08_Goodman.pdf/$file/Pages+from+AJEM_Feb08_Goodman.pdf}, author = {Goodman, Helen and John Gawen} } @article {BF-2372, title = {Harnessing forest ecological sciences in the service of stewardship and sustainability A perspective from {\textquoteleft}down-under{\textquoteright}}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {256}, year = {2008}, month = {11/2008}, pages = {1636 - 1645}, abstract = {Australia{\textquoteright}s native forests are predominantly Crown land, managed by the States. Regional Forest Agreements between four of the States and the Federal Government (1997{\textendash}2001) resulted in a 36\% increase in the area of conservation reserves and a 15\% decrease in area of multiple-use (including timber harvesting) forests. The limited acceptance of timber harvesting in native forests, together with the rapid expansion of hardwood plantations, has diverted research focus away from native forests. Recent events including a prolonged drought and two forest fires totaling more than 3 million ha should have stimulated research in native forests on the effects of fire on ecosystem processes, on the management of fire and on management of water catchments; fires, far more than logging, are shaping our native forests in recent times. In particular, the use of prescribed fire to reduce fuels has decreased. We argue that Australian research effort in native eucalypt forests is lacking in two key areas {\textendash} the effects of fire on carbon storage in forests and soils, and on the management of water yield from forested catchments. The results of forest research are variously published in the scientific journals, and increasingly in consultancy reports to governments or a to a range of organizations and industries. The question of who does the harnessing of knowledge coming from the science of forest ecology is compounded by constant changes in both political and management arrangements. If forest science is to assume a greater role in politics and forest management in Australia, scientists must enter the foray, using the fighting words of politics rather than maintaining the protective mantle of neutrality. With research in native forests being continually downgraded at both State and Federal levels, we take a somewhat less than optimistic view about how well ecological sciences will be harnessed in the service of forest stewardship and sustainability in Australia.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2008.07.024}, author = {Peter Attiwill and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2378, title = {Health of remnant woodlands in fragments under distinct grazing regimes}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {141}, year = {2008}, month = {09/2008}, pages = {2395 - 2402}, abstract = {Fragmented remnant woodlands in agricultural landscapes are of high conservation value world-wide. Many eucalypts in agricultural landscapes of Australia are in decline. We aimed to investigate nutrient enrichment as a process that may contribute to eucalypt decline. We studied remnant woodlands that had been exposed to distinct recent and current livestock grazing treatments: Currently Intense Grazed; Recently Intense Grazed (until 3 years ago); Recent Intermediate Grazed; and Recent Lightly Grazed by livestock. We assessed soil nutrient status and penetrability, eucalypt foliar nutrition and stable isotope ratios for N and C, attributes of understorey vegetation, and tree health. Soils of the Currently Intense Grazed treatment had high levels of ammonium and Colwell-P. Total N, P, C:N ratio and soil penetrability were generally high in Currently Intense Grazed and Recently Intense Grazed treatments relative to Recent Intermediate Grazed and Recent Lightly Grazed treatments. Foliar N, N stable isotope ratios, P and carbon stable isotope ratios (δ13C) were generally higher (less negative δ13C) in trees on Currently Intense Grazed and Recently Intense Grazed treatments than in trees on Recent Intermediate Grazed and Recent Lightly Grazed treatments. Soil surface litter, tall and low shrubs and rock were positively correlated with tree health. Grasses and eucalypt foliar N, P and δ13C were negatively correlated with tree health. Soil nutrient enrichment increased with increasing grazing intensity and was associated with increased weed invasion and with poor tree health that was in turn correlated to increased foliar N and P and less negative δ13C in woodland trees in this study. We argue that minimising soil nutrient enrichment of fragmented remnant woodlands is important, given the association of elevated soil nutrition with poor tree health, to ensure the persistence of eucalypts in agricultural landscapes.}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.006}, author = {Close, DC and Davidson, N. J. and Watson, T} } @proceedings {BF-2996, title = {A High-Resolution Historical Fire Climate Data Set For Victoria}, year = {2008}, address = {USA, United States of America }, url = {http://knowledgeweb.afac.com.au/research/fire_behaviour/weather/a_high-resolution_historical_fire_climate_data_set_for_victoria}, author = {Brown, T and Graham A. Mills and T. Ghidey and H. Reinbold} } @article {BF-1154, title = {Impact of Ecosystem Management on Microbial Community Level Physiological Profiles of Postmining Forest Rehabilitation}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, year = {2008}, note = {11 pgs}, author = {Cookson, WR and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Grant, CD and Grierson, Pauline and Murphy, DV} } @article {BF-1096, title = {Impact of volatile organic compounds from wildfires on crop production and quality}, journal = {Aspects of Applied Biology }, number = {88}, year = {2008}, month = {12/01/2008}, pages = {93-97}, author = {Maleknia, Simin D. and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2392, title = {Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {02/2008}, pages = {55 - 67}, abstract = {Plant responses to fire are variable between and within species and are influenced by numerous factors including fire severity. This study investigated the effects of fire severity on the regeneration and recruitment of forest eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This study also examined the potential for the obligate seeder Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker (Myrtaceae) to expand into adjacent stands dominated by the facultative resprouter Eucalyptus fastigata H. Deane \& Maiden (Myrtaceae) by seed shed and seedling establishment beyond the pre-fire boundary. Sites were located in areas of either higher or lower fire severity, and transects were placed across the boundary of stands of E. delegatensis and E. fastigata. Species distributions, tree survival and seedling densities and heights were recorded, and the location of each boundary was determined as the region of maximum change in species composition along the transects. Eucalyptus delegatensis was the only eucalypt killed by higher severity fire. However, E. delegatensis seedling density was greater at higher severity sites than lower severity sites. Eucalyptus fastigata seedling density was low across all sites, with other eucalypts producing few, if any, seedlings. There was no evidence that E. delegatensis had increased its range into downslope stands dominated by E. fastigata. Patterns of vegetative recovery and seedling recruitment may be related to a number of factors, including differences in allocation patterns between seeders and sprouters, and the effects of overstory and understory competition. It is unclear what processes impede E. delegatensis seedling establishment beyond the stand boundary, but may involve an inability of E. delegatensis to shed seed sufficiently far downslope; unsuitable conditions for germination beyond the boundary; or, competition from a retained or resprouting overstory, despite the potential for increased dispersal distance soon after fire.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2007.01790.x}, author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2380, title = {Large fires, fire effects and the fire-regime concept}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {688}, abstract = {{\textquoteleft}Large{\textquoteright} fires may be declared so because of their absolute or relative area. Huge fires {\textendash} with areas of more than 106 ha (104 km2) have occurred across a wide spectrum of Australian environments and are known on other continents. Such large fires are rare whereas fires with much smaller areas are common. Large fires are initiated by single or multiple ignitions and become large because of some combination of: rapid rates of spread; long {\textquoteleft}life{\textquoteright}; merging, and failure of initial suppression operations. Fires as ecological {\textquoteleft}events{\textquoteright} occur within a {\textquoteleft}regime{\textquoteright} {\textendash} an historical series. Both events and regimes have effects that may be discerned in terms of water, land, air or organisms. What have been regarded as the components of {\textquoteleft}regimes{\textquoteright} have differed between observers, the main issue being whether or not spatial variables need to be included; {\textquoteleft}area{\textquoteright} involvement is briefly addressed. The current trend toward fire-regime control through fuel treatment, including management (prescribed) burning, and fire suppression may be expected to continue. These trends, among others, can be expected to change fire regimes. What is regarded as {\textquoteleft}large{\textquoteright} among fires may change as the planet becomes increasingly human-dominated.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07145}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Allan, Grant E.} } @article {BF-2376, title = {Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns in SW Australian eucalypt forest using remotely-sensed changes in leaf area index}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {112}, year = {2008}, month = {12/2008}, pages = {4358 - 4369}, abstract = {Remote sensing is the most practical method available to managers of fire-prone forests for quantifying and mapping fire impacts. Differenced Normalised Burn Ratio (ΔNBR) is among the most widely used spectral indices for the mapping of burn severity but is difficult to interpret in terms of fire-related changes in key biophysical attributes and processes. We propose to quantify burn severity as a change in the leaf area index (ΔLAI) of a stand. LAI is a key biophysical attribute of forests, and is central to understanding their water and carbon cycles. Previous studies have suggested that changes in canopy LAI may be a major contributor to ΔNBR and to the composite burn index (CBI) that is frequently used in combination with the NBR to assess burn severity on the ground. We applied remotely-sensed ΔLAI to map burn severity in jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest in south-western Australia burnt during the January 2005 Perth Hills wildfires. Ground-based digital photography was used to measure LAI in typical stands representing the full range of canopy densities present in the study area as well as variation in the time since the last fire. Regression models for the prediction of LAI were developed using NBR, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or the Simple Ratio (SR) as the independent variable. All three LAI models had equally high coefficients of determination (R2: 0.87) and small root mean squared errors (RMSE: 0.27{\textendash}0.28). ΔLAI was calculated as the difference between pre- and post-fire LAI, predicted using imagery from January 2004 and February 2005, respectively. The area affected by the January 2005 fire and the burn severity patterns within that area were mapped using ΔLAI and ΔNBR. Landscape patterns of burn severity obtained from differencing pre- and post-fire LAI were similar to those mapped by ΔNBR. We conclude that fire-affected areas and burn severity patterns in the northern jarrah forest can be objectively mapped using remotely-sensed changes in LAI, while offering the important advantage over NBR of being readily interpretable in the wider context of ecological forest management.}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2008.08.005}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Macfarlane, C and Jaymie Norris and Sadler, Rohan J. and Wallace, J and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-1028, title = {Objective verification of operational mesoscale NWP model wind change forecasts}, volume = {CTR008, }, year = {2008}, month = {5/07/2009}, pages = {72pp}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_008.pdf}, author = {Xinmei, Huang and Yimin, MA and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-2373, title = {A preliminary investigation of temporal patterns in semiarid ant communities: Variation with habitat type}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {08/2008}, pages = {653 - 662}, abstract = {This study reports on preliminary findings of habitat-contingent temporal variability in ant assemblages in Purnululu National Park in northern Australia{\textquoteright}s semiarid tropics, by sampling at the end of the dry season (October 2004) and the end of the wet season (April 2005). Six grids of 15 pitfall traps were established in each of the spinifex, sandplain and gorge habitats. Community composition was dominated by behaviourally dominant ants (Iridomyrmex spp.) and climate specialists (Melophorus and Meranoplus spp.). Ant activity was higher in the wet season sampling period, with greater species richness and abundance. Interestingly, temporal variation in ant assemblage richness, abundance and composition varied markedly with habitat type. While there were large differences between sampling periods for the spinifex and sandplain habitat, this was not the case in the gorges. These temporal changes in ant assemblages are postulated to be linked with major environmental differences between the two sampling periods, driven by seasonal climatic conditions. It is likely that these changes influenced the ant assemblages through species differences in physiological tolerance levels, ecological requirements and competitive ability. This study demonstrates the need, in highly seasonal environments, to consider the temporal context of studies in relation to habitat type, particularly when undertaking biodiversity surveys and monitoring.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2008.01832.x}, author = {Barrow, L and Parr, CL} } @inbook {BF-1227, title = {Preparing for Bushfires: The public education challenges facing fire agencies}, booktitle = {Community bushfire safety}, year = {2008}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {117-126}, author = {Paton, Douglas and Wright, Lyndsey}, editor = {John Handmer and Katharine Haynes} } @inbook {BF-1277, title = {Property Safety: judging structural safety}, booktitle = {Community bushfire safety}, year = {2008}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/18/pid/5819.htm }, author = {Justin Leonard}, editor = {John Handmer and Katharine Haynes} } @article {BF-2382, title = {The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {421}, abstract = {In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07052}, author = {Karen J. King and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chapman, Joanne and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} } @article {BF-2390, title = {Review of formal methodologies for wind{\textendash}slope correction of wildfire rate of spread}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {179}, abstract = {The effects of wind and topographic slope are important considerations when determining the rate and direction of spread of wildfires. Accordingly, most models used to predict the direction and rate of spread contain components designed to account for these effects. Over the years, a variety of different approaches have been developed. In the present manuscript, we examine the various mathematical models employed to account for the effects of wind and slope at a formal level, making comparisons where appropriate. The methods reviewed include scalar methods, which ignore the directional nature of wind and slope effects, as well as methods in which the effects of wind and slope are combined in a vectorial manner. Both empirical and physical models for wind{\textendash}slope correction are considered.}, doi = {10.1071/WF06156}, author = {Jason J. Sharples} } @article {BF-2386, title = {Risk communication and natural hazard mitigation: how trust influences its effectiveness}, journal = {International Journal of Global Environmental Issues}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {2}, abstract = {In areas prone to natural hazards, a key goal of risk management is mitigating risk by encouraging people to adopt protective measures. Despite the efforts of civic emergency management agencies, the goal of ensuring the sustained adoption of these measures has proved elusive. This paper argues that one contributing factor has been a failure to accommodate the relationship among the complexity of hazards, peoples{\textquoteright} lack of experience of them and the need to rely on others to acquire pertinent information within the risk communication process. This paper discusses (a) how familiarity with a hazard and the availability of information about it affects the relative influence of trust on decisions to adopt protective measures and (b) how trust mediates the relationship between structural characteristics (e.g. participation and empowerment) of a community and natural hazard preparedness. The implications of the findings for risk communication are discussed.}, doi = {10.1504/IJGENVI.2008.017256}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1170, title = {The role of stomatal acclimation in modelling tree adaptation to high Co2.}, journal = {Journal of Experimental Botany}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, year = {2008}, pages = {11}, author = {Buckley, TN} } @book {BF-1095, title = {Smoke from wildfires and prescribed burning in Australia: effects on human health and ecosystems}, series = {Forest Fires and Air Pollution Issues, Developments in Environmental Science Series}, year = {2008}, month = {accepted April 2}, publisher = {Elsevier Ltd}, organization = {Elsevier Ltd}, isbn = {978-0-08-055609-3}, url = {www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookdescription.cws_home/716396/description$\#$description}, author = {Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2389, title = {Soil temperatures during autumn prescribed burning: implications for the germination of fire responsive species?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {572}, abstract = {Prescribed fire is a widely applied management tool in native forests. There have been concerns raised about the ecological impacts of prescribed fire on native flora. One aspect of the debate is the extent to which prescribed fire heats the soil to levels reported to trigger germination in the soil seed banks. We used Thermochrons to test soil temperatures at 2 and 5 cm in prescribed burns in dry sclerophyll forests. Soil temperatures during the burns were generally low (<40{\textdegree}C) with less than 5\% of sites being exposed to temperatures necessary for the germination of fire-dependent shrub species. High temperatures were associated with high fuel consumption and large woody debris. This information suggests that prescribed fires, carried out according to standard practices, in these forests are unlikely to trigger germination in the majority of the soil-stored seed banks. If ecological burns in these forests are aimed at promoting populations of senescing obligate seeder species, they need to be hotter than standard practice if they are to achieve their objectives, although we acknowledge that there are inherent risks associated with hotter burns.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07092}, author = {Trent Penman and Towerton, AL} } @article {BF-2377, title = {Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Power law frequency-size distributions of forest fires have been observed in a range of environments. The scaling behaviour of fires, and more generally of landscape patterns related to recurring disturbance and recovery, have previously been explained in the frameworks of self-organized criticality (SOC) and highly optimized tolerance (HOT). In these frameworks the scaling behaviour of the fires is the global structure that either emerges spontaneously from locally operating processes (SOC) or is the product of a tuning process aimed at optimizing the trade-offs between system yield and tolerance to risks (HOT). Here, we argue that the dominant role of self-organized or optimised fuel patterns in constraining unplanned-fire sizes, implicit in the SOC and HOT frameworks, fails to recognise the strong exogenous controls of fire spread (i.e. by weather, terrain, and suppression) observed in many fire-prone landscapes. Using data from southern Australia we demonstrate that forest fire areas and the magnitudes of corresponding weather events have distributions with closely matching scaling exponents. We conclude that the spatial scale invariance of forest fires may also be a mapping of the meteorological forcing pattern. }, doi = {10.1007/s10980-008-9260-5}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2391, title = {Strong host preference of ectomycorrhizal fungi in a Tasmanian wet sclerophyll forest as revealed by DNA barcoding and taxon-specific primers}, journal = {New Phytologist}, volume = {180}, year = {2008}, month = {10/2008}, pages = {479 - 490}, abstract = {$\#$ Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) symbiosis is a widespread plant nutrition strategy in Australia, especially in semiarid regions. This study aims to determine the diversity, community structure and host preference of ECM fungi in a Tasmanian wet sclero-phyll forest. $\#$ {\textbullet} Ectomycorrhizal fungi were identified based on anatomotyping and rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-large subunit (LSU) sequence analysis using taxon-specific primers. Host tree roots were identified based on root morphology and length differences of the chloroplast trnL region. $\#$ {\textbullet} A total of 123 species of ECM fungi were recovered from root tips of Eucalyptus regnans (Myrtaceae), Pomaderris apetala (Rhamnaceae) and Nothofagus cunninghamii (Nothofagaceae). The frequency of two thirds of the most common ECM fungi from several lineages was significantly influenced by host species. The lineages of Cortinarius, Tomentella{\textendash}Thelephora, Russula{\textendash}Lactarius, Clavulina, Descolea and Laccaria prevailed in the total community and their species richness and relative abundance did not differ by host species. $\#$ {\textbullet} This study demonstrates that strongly host-preferring, though not directly specific, ECM fungi may dominate the below-ground community. Apart from the richness of Descolea, Tulasnella and Helotiales and the lack of Suillus{\textendash}Rhizopogon and Amphinema{\textendash}Tylospora, the ECM fungal diversity and phylogenetic community structure is similar to that in the Holarctic realm.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02561.x}, author = {Tedersoo,L and Jairus, Teele and Horton, Bryony M. and Abarenkov, Kessy and Suvi, T and Saar, Irja and K{\~o}ljalg, Urmas} } @inbook {BF-1203, title = {Understanding communities needs for information and education}, booktitle = {Risk Wise, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR)}, year = {2008}, pages = {41-44}, publisher = {Tudor Rose, UK}, organization = {Tudor Rose, UK}, url = {http://eprints.jcu.edu.au/7449/}, author = {Cottrell, Alison and David King} } @article {BF-1310, title = {Volunteer firefighting and family life: An organisational perspective on conflict between volunteer and family roles}, journal = {Australian Journal on Volunteering }, volume = {13}, number = {2}, year = {2008}, month = {12/15/2008}, pages = {21-31}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=580578472457285;res=IELHSS}, author = {Sean Cowlishaw and Jim McLennan and Lynette Evans} } @article {BF-2383, title = {Why Would You Do It? Age and Motivation to Become a Fire Service Volunteer}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Organizational Psychology}, volume = {1}, year = {2008}, month = {08/2008}, pages = {7 - 11}, abstract = {Australian communities are very dependent on volunteer-based fire services for protection against fires and other hazards. However, overall volunteer numbers have declined significantly over the past decade, due mostly to the impact of economic and demographic changes on Australian society. One effect of these is that volunteer fire service memberships are ageing. Little is known with certainty about what motivates individuals to become fire service volunteers. A survey of 455 CFA volunteers suggested that those who volunteer do so because of a mix of community-safety, community-contribution, and self-oriented motivations. It appears that younger volunteers are more likely to be motivated by self-oriented perceived benefits from volunteering compared with older volunteers. However, they are no less motivated, on average, by community-safety concerns and community contribution desires than are older volunteers.}, doi = {10.1375/ajop.1.1.7}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian} } @article {BF-1092, title = {Analysis of near-surface transport from an oil storage facility at Hovea, Western Australia {\textendash} a year of dispersion modelling.}, year = {2007}, note = {46pp}, month = {9/28/2007}, institution = {Consultancy Report to Arc Energy Pty Ltd}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1335, title = {Annotated bibliography summarising material related to fire service volunteering by people from Non-English Speaking Backgrounds (NESB) and Cultural and guistic Diversity (CALDbackgrounds}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/annotated-bibliography-multiculturalism-february-2007.pdf}, author = {Suss, J} } @article {BF-1245, title = {Bushfire Management: Why, Where and How Economics Matter?}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of Queensland.}, year = {2007}, author = {Gaminda Ganewatta and John Handmer} } @article {BF-1060, title = {Bushfire weather climatology of the Haines Index in south-western Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {56}, number = {2}, year = {2007}, month = {6/30/2007}, pages = {75-80}, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and Marchetti, P and Elliott, Glenn and Reader, G} } @article {BF-2370, title = {Bushfires {\textquoteright}down under{\textquoteright}: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian landscape burning}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {361}, abstract = {Australia is among the most fire-prone of continents. While national fire management policy is focused on irregular and comparatively smaller fires in densely settled southern Australia, this comprehensive assessment of continental-scale fire patterning (1997{\textendash}2005) derived from ~1 km2 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery shows that fire activity occurs predominantly in the savanna landscapes of monsoonal northern Australia. Statistical models that relate the distribution of large fires to a variety of biophysical variables show that, at the continental scale, rainfall seasonality substantially explains fire patterning. Modelling results, together with data concerning seasonal lightning incidence, implicate the importance of anthropogenic ignition sources, especially in the northern wet{\textendash}dry tropics and arid Australia, for a substantial component of recurrent fire extent. Contemporary patterns differ markedly from those under Aboriginal occupancy, are causing significant impacts on biodiversity, and, under current patterns of human population distribution, land use, national policy and climate change scenarios, are likely to prevail, if not intensify, for decades to come. Implications of greenhouse gas emissions from savanna burning, especially seasonal emissions of CO2, are poorly understood and contribute to important underestimation of the significance of savanna emissions both in Australian and probably in international greenhouse gas inventories. A significant challenge for Australia is to address annual fire extent in fire-prone Australian savannas.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07018}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Yates, Cameron P. and Whitehead, Peter J. and Smith, Richard and Craig, Ron and Allan, Grant E. and Thackway, Richard and Frakes, Ian and Cridland, Shane and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-1033, title = {Classifying objectively identified wind changes using synoptic pressure cycles.}, volume = {128}, year = {2007}, month = {5/25/2007}, pages = {60pp}, institution = {BMRC }, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR128.pdf}, author = {Xinmei, Huang and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-2361, title = {Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {79 - 87}, abstract = {Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science{\textemdash}and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better? These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms. The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.}, doi = {10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.002}, author = {John Handmer and Proudley, B} } @article {BF-1206, title = {Community and fire service perceptions of bushfire issues in Tamborine Mountain: what{\textquoteright}s the difference?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {22}, number = {3}, year = {2007}, month = {8/17/2007}, pages = {3-Sep}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/EMA/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/(1FEDA2C440E4190E0993A00B7C030CB7)~AJEM_Aug07_p03_Bushnell.pdf/$file/AJEM_Aug07_p03_Bushnell.pdf}, author = {Bushnell, S and Balcombe, LJ and Cottrell, Alison} } @article {BF-1258, title = {Community education, awareness and engagement programs}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/communities-report-gilbert-c0701.pdf}, author = {Gilbert, John} } @article {BF-2352, title = {Contrasting fire-related resilience of ecologically dominant ants in tropical savannas of northern Australia}, journal = {Diversity and Distributions}, volume = {13}, year = {2007}, month = {07/2007}, pages = {438 - 446}, abstract = {This paper examines the role of fire in mediating the relative abundance of two of the world{\textquoteright}s major ecologically dominant ant genera, Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla, where they coexist across the tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. These taxa have contrasting biogeographical histories, which are predicted to lead to contrasting responses to fire. Iridomyrmex is an autochthonous Australian genus that has radiated primarily in the arid zone; as such, its abundance is predicted to be promoted by frequent fire because this maintains an open habitat. In contrast, Oecophylla is a genus of leaf-nesting ants occurring in the canopies of Old World tropical rainforest, and is a recent arrival to Australia in geological time; the abundance of these ants is predicted to decline under frequent fire. We test these predictions using results from a landscape-scale fire experiment, where three experimental fire regimes (including no fire) were applied to replicated subcatchments over a 5-year period. Using sweep nets, ants were sampled in the grass layer (the habitat layer of greatest overlap between Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla) in eucalypt woodland (canopy cover < 30\%) and open eucalypt forest (canopy cover about 50\%) habitats. A total of 27 species from 11 genera were collected during the study; eight were common enough for statistical analysis, and the abundances of four of these were significantly affected by fire treatment. As predicted, the abundance of Iridomyrmex was promoted by fire, whereas that of Oecophylla declined. These changes occurred only under late-season (relatively high intensity) fires, and for Oecophylla occurred only in open forest (not woodland) habitat. This fire-mediated relationship between Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla mirrors the much broader, ecosystem-wide dynamic between eucalypt-dominated savanna and rainforest in tropical Australia, with savannas dominated by fire-resistant sclerophyll elements of Australian origin, and rainforest dominated by fire-sensitive mesophyll elements of South-East Asian origin.}, issn = {1366951614724642}, doi = {10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00353.x}, author = {Andersen, A. N. and Parr, CL and Lowe, LM and M{\"u}ller, Warren J.} } @article {BF-1194, title = {Is decline in high altitude eucalypt forests related to rainforest understorey development and altered soil bacteria following the long absence of fire?}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {Nov. 2007}, year = {2007}, author = {Harvest, T and Davidson, N. J. and Close, DC} } @book {BF-1202, title = {Developing community bushfire resilience: Integrating household, community and fire agency perspectives.}, year = {2007}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1021, title = {On easterly changes over elevated terrain in Australia{\textquoteright}s southeast}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {56}, year = {2007}, month = {10/31/2007}, pages = {177-190}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2007/mills.pdf}, author = {Graham A. Mills} } @inbook {BF-1242, title = {Economics of Bushfire Management}, booktitle = {Community Bushfire Safety}, year = {2007}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing/ Bushfire CRC}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing/ Bushfire CRC}, isbn = {9.78064E+12}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/18/pid/5819.htm}, author = {Gaminda Ganewatta and John Handmer}, editor = {John Handmer and Katharine Haynes} } @article {BF-1047, title = {The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Aerial Firefighting in Australia}, year = {2007}, month = {7/05/2007}, institution = {Bushfire CRC }, type = {Research Report}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and J.S. Gould and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis} } @article {BF-2369, title = {Efficacy of permanent firebreaks and aerial prescribed burning in western Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {295}, abstract = {We investigated the efficacy of firebreaks in the prevention of wildfires in the Arnhem Land Plateau, a vast, rugged and sparsely populated region with high biodiversity value and frequent wildfires. A total of 623 events where a fire met a permanent firebreak (cliffs, stream order, tracks and roads) in different fire seasons were compiled. Cliffs were more effective than streams at stopping fires, which were more effective than roads. Larger streams were more effective than small ones. The largest streams stop 75\% of early dry season fires, but there are no firebreak types with more than 50\% likelihood of stopping a late dry season fire. Geographic Information System (GIS) surfaces of the relative density of the three firebreak features in the landscape were randomly sampled and compared with the total number of fires and late dry season fires using generalised linear modelling. Several of the density variables were weakly but significantly related to fire frequency, and it appears that late dry season fires are influenced by features at a larger scale (16-km radius) than total fires (4 km). The Aerial Prescribed Burning program for 2004 was studied to identify how effective it was at stopping subsequent wildfires by dividing ignition lines into 137 5-km sections. Only 20\% of sections achieved a 100\% burn and where gaps occurred, a subsequent fire was 88\% likely to penetrate the line. Firebreaks are not certain instruments for fire management in this area.}, doi = {10.1071/WF06039}, author = {Owen Price and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {BF-2357, title = {Eucalypt health and agricultural land management within bushland remnants in the Midlands of Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {139}, year = {2007}, month = {10/2007}, pages = {439 - 446}, abstract = {In temperate Australia, sustainability of biodiversity in poorly-reserved woodland remnants within agricultural landscapes is a priority. Cornerstone species, such as those comprising the tree overstorey, are essential as a seed source for regeneration and for microclimate amelioration, soil erosion prevention and habitat provision in woodland ecosystems. However, trees within many woodland remnants are rapidly deteriorating in health. This has been attributed to several causes, including three decades of below average rainfall in temperate Australia. However, instances where trees are healthy and declining on either side of a management boundary indicate a key role of management in the condition of woodland remnants. We investigated the effects of past management on soil properties and vegetation understorey, and linked these with overstorey tree health across 49 sites within the agricultural Midlands of Tasmania, Australia. Sixty percent of the variation in overstorey tree health was associated with the cover of native shrubs, litter, moss and lichen in healthy sites and with cover of exotic pasture species in declining sites. Soil attributes explained 72\% of the variation in tree health, with healthy sites having lower soil total nitrogen and pH, and higher soil organic carbon. A combination of soil and understorey vegetation attributes entirely separated healthy, declining and poor sites in a canonical analysis. Regression tree analysis indicated that grazing history (fencing, grazing frequency and intensity) was the primary management history factor in separating healthy and poor sites, whilst patch size, fire frequency and wood gathering were secondary, but significant, factors. Sites that were only lightly, if at all, grazed, had a fire frequency >10 years, and did not have coarse woody debris removed were healthy, indicating that the drying and warming climate of the past three decades is within the bioclimatic envelope of the species examined.}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2007.07.019}, author = {Davidson, N. J. and Close, DC and Battaglia, M and Churchill, KC and Ottenschlaeger, M and Watson, T and Bruce, J} } @article {BF-1190, title = {Eucalypt health and agricultural land management within bushland remnants in the Midlands of Tasmania}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, year = {2007}, abstract = {In temperate Australia, sustainability of biodiversity in poorly-reserved woodland remnants within agricultural landscapes is a priority. Cornerstone species, such as those comprising the tree overstorey, are essential as a seed source for regeneration and for microclimate amelioration, soil erosion prevention and habitat provision in woodland ecosystems. However, trees within many woodland remnants are rapidly deteriorating in health. This has been attributed to several causes, including three decades of below average rainfall in temperate Australia. However, instances where trees are healthy and declining on either side of a management boundary indicate a key role of management in the condition of woodland remnants. We investigated the effects of past management on soil properties and vegetation understorey, and linked these with overstorey tree health across 49 sites within the agricultural Midlands of Tasmania, Australia. Sixty percent of the variation in overstorey tree health was associated with the cover of native shrubs, litter, moss and lichen in healthy sites and with cover of exotic pasture species in declining sites. Soil attributes explained 72\% of the variation in tree health, with healthy sites having lower soil total nitrogen and pH, and higher soil organic carbon. A combination of soil and understorey vegetation attributes entirely separated healthy, declining and poor sites in a canonical analysis. Regression tree analysis indicated that grazing history (fencing, grazing frequency and intensity) was the primary management history factor in separating healthy and poor sites, whilst patch size, fire frequency and wood gathering were secondary, but significant, factors. Sites that were only lightly, if at all, grazed, had a fire frequency >10 years, and did not have coarse woody debris removed were healthy, indicating that the drying and warming climate of the past three decades is within the bioclimatic envelope of the species examined.}, url = {http://eprints.utas.edu.au/3954/}, author = {Davidson, N. J. and Close, DC and Battaglia, M and Churchill, KC and Ottenschlaeger, M and Watson, T} } @article {BF-1339, title = {Factors impacting on recruiting and retaining Australia{\textquoteright}s volunteer firefighters: Some reseach evidence}, journal = {Australian Journal on Volunteering}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, year = {2007}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian and Beatson, Ruth and Sean Cowlishaw} } @article {BF-1009, title = {Field Guide- Fuel assessment and fire behaviour prediction in dry euclaypt forest}, volume = {82}, year = {2007}, month = {11/01/2007}, institution = {Ensis- CSIRO \& Department of Enivironment and Conservation, WA}, author = {J.S. Gould and Lachlan W. McCaw and Cheney, NP and Ellis, Peter and Stuart Matthews} } @article {BF-1286, title = {Fighting fatigue whilst fighting bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, year = {2007}, month = {4/19/2007}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/EMA/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/(1FEDA2C440E4190E0993A00B7C030CB7)~AJEM_Aug07_p31_Aisbett.pdf/$file/AJEM_Aug07_p31_Aisbett.pdf}, author = {Brad Aisbett and Nichols, David} } @article {BF-1285{\textquoteleft}, title = {FIGHTING WITH FIRE - HOW BUSHFIRE SUPPRESSION CAN IMPACT ON FIREFIGHTERS HEALTH}, journal = {Australian Family Physician}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/aisbett-et-al-2007-australian-family-physician.pdf}, author = {Brad Aisbett and Phillips, Matthew and Michael Sergeant and Gilbert, John and Nichols, David} } @book {BF-1001, title = {Fire Behaviour in Dry Eucalypt Forest Fuels}, year = {2007}, month = {11/01/2007}, publisher = {Ensis- CSIRO \& Department of Enivironment and Conservation, WA}, organization = {Ensis- CSIRO \& Department of Enivironment and Conservation, WA}, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and Cheney, NP and J.S. Gould} } @inbook {BF-1200, title = {Fire risk in Aboriginal peri-urban landscapes in northern Australia:Case studies from western Cape York Peninsula}, booktitle = {Communities living with hazards}, year = {2007}, pages = {156 -192}, publisher = {Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University, }, organization = {Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University, }, chapter = {9}, address = {Townsville}, isbn = {0864437528 (pbk.) 9780864437525}, url = {http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/Publications/JCUDEV_014975.html}, author = {Monaghan, J}, editor = {David King and Cottrell, Alison} } @article {BF-1049, title = {Fire sheds new light on regulation of water and carbon fluxes by tree height}, year = {2007}, author = {Mcfarlane, Adams} } @article {BF-1271, title = {Fire tests at the interface between Timber Decks and exterior walls}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cmmt-2007-048-fire-tests-interface-between-timber-decks-and-exterior-walls.pdf}, author = {Bowditch, PA and Justin Leonard and Macindoe, L and Sargeant, AJ} } @proceedings {BF-2429, title = {Fuel dynamics and fire behaviour in Australian mallee and heath vegetation}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/28563}, author = {Myers, Juanita and J.S. Gould and Cruz, Miguel G. and Henderson, M. K.} } @article {BF-2356, title = {Habitat type influences fire resilience of ant assemblages in the semi-arid tropics of Northern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {69}, year = {2007}, month = {04/2007}, pages = {80 - 95}, abstract = {Although fire is an annual occurrence in savanna systems and is widely used as a tool in conservation management, the effects of fire on biodiversity remain poorly understood. This study investigated the response of ant assemblages, a key component of invertebrate diversity, to burning in two dominant savanna ecosystems (spinifex uplands and sandplain) in the Australian semi-arid tropics. A total of 180 pitfall traps were established in each habitat and each sampling period (wet and dry season). We collected a total of 89 046 ants from 18 genera, representing 126 species. The response of ant assemblages to fire varied with habitat type. We relate this response to habitat-specific fire induced differences in microhabitat structure and the vertical distribution of biomass. There were large differences in assemblage composition in the spinifex habitat, where vegetation composition and structure varied considerably between burnt and unburnt sites. In contrast, assemblages were largely resilient to single fire events in the sandplain, where vegetation change following fire was less pronounced. This study highlights the need for conservation managers to be aware of how different habitats respond to fire and what the consequences of different management actions might be.}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.08.005}, author = {Barrow, L and Parr, CL and KOHEN, J} } @article {BF-1303, title = {"The Human Factors Interview Protocol: A Tool for the Investigation of Human Factors Issues in Emergency Management"}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, year = {2007}, author = {Elliott, Glenn and Omodei, Mary and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1259, title = {Improving bushfire safety}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/communities-report-stevens-c0702.pdf}, author = {Stevens, Kaye} } @article {BF-1205, title = {Increasing community resilience to bushfire - implications from a North Queensland community case study}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {22}, number = {2}, year = {2007}, month = {5/19/2007}, pages = {3-Sep}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/EMA/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/(1FEDA2C440E4190E0993A00B7C030CB7)~03-09bushnell.pdf/$file/03-09bushnell.pdf}, author = {Bushnell, S and Cottrell, Alison} } @article {BF-1110, title = {The influence of prescribed burning on fruit production in Proteaceae}, journal = {Cunninghamia}, year = {2007}, author = {Trent Penman and Binns, Doug L. and Plummer, H} } @article {BF-2365, title = {Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {540}, abstract = {The area burnt each summer in Tasmania is related to coincident (summer) climate variables, especially the total summer rainfall. The relationship with temperature is weaker and largely reflects the relationship between rainfall and temperature. As the El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation is known to be related to Australian rainfall and simple indices of this phenomenon form the basis of the operational seasonal climate forecast scheme used in Australia, it is not surprising that indices of the El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation can also, it appears, provide a potentially useful forecast system for Tasmanian bushfire extent. In particular, sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea during winter are correlated with the area burnt in the following summer. The effect of summer rainfall on the area burnt each year suggests that global warming may not simply lead to increased burning, contrasting with the situation in other parts of the globe. A weak, long-term decline in area burnt appears to be due to a weak increase in summer rainfall.}, doi = {10.1071/WF06125}, author = {Nicholls, N and Chris Lucas} } @article {BF-1027, title = {Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {10/31/2007}, pages = {540-546}, author = {Nicholls, N and Chris Lucas} } @article {BF-1216, title = {Juvenile arson intevention programs in Australia}, journal = {Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice Series }, number = {335}, year = {2007}, month = {6/13/2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/juvenile-arson.pdf}, author = {Damon A Muller and Ashley Stebbins} } @article {BF-1184, title = {A laser point-quadrat sampling frame for vegetation survey}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.steverox.info/LaserPointQuadrat/LaserPointQuadrat.htm}, author = {Roxburgh, Stephen and Taranto, MT} } @article {BF-2362, title = {Letter to the editors}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {31}, year = {2007}, month = {03/2007}, pages = {113 - 114}, issn = {03613666}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-7717.2007.00344.x} } @inbook {BF-1201, title = {Living with bushfires: What do people expect?}, booktitle = {Communities living with hazards}, year = {2007}, pages = {215 - 253}, publisher = {Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University}, organization = {Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University}, chapter = {11}, address = {Townsville}, isbn = {0864437528 (pbk.) 9780864437525}, url = {http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/Publications/JCUDEV_014975.html}, author = {Bushnell, S and Cottrell, Alison}, editor = {David King and Cottrell, Alison} } @inbook {BF-1241, title = {Managing Wildfire Hazards in Fire-prone Landscape: Australian Experiences. }, booktitle = {A Book on Managing Extreme Events in Environment}, year = {2007}, author = {Gaminda Ganewatta and Choong, Wei and John Handmer}, editor = {Professor Mohan Munasinghe} } @article {BF-1266, title = {Measurements of Moisture Content in Decking Timbers Exposed to Bushfire Weather Conditions}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/8730_cmmt-2007-141-measurements-moisture-content-decking-timbers-exposed-bushfire-weather-conditions.pdf}, author = {Bowditch, PA and Justin Leonard and Macindoe, L} } @article {BF-2359, title = {Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {88 - 96}, abstract = {This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media. Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting. The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.}, doi = {10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.07.007}, author = {Cohen, E and Hughes, P and White, PB} } @article {BF-1034, title = {Northern Australian Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Workshop - 2007}, year = {2007}, month = {7/03/2007}, pages = {25pp}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-nth-aust-07-08.pdf}, author = {Chris Lucas and Murphy, Brett P. and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1313, title = {NSW Grain Belt Community Survey 2005 - Evaluating the community s understanding about the NSW Rural Fire Service}, journal = {Australian Journal on Volunteering }, volume = {1}, number = {12}, year = {2007}, month = {5/16/2007}, pages = {14-25}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/grainbelt_survey_report_1_final.pdf}, author = {Birch, Adrian and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-2368, title = {Patchiness of prescribed burns in dry sclerophyll eucalypt forests in South-eastern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {252}, year = {2007}, month = {11/2007}, pages = {24 - 32}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is commonly used in eucalypt forests to reduce fire risk and minimize damage to people and property in the event of a wildfire. The dry sclerophyll forests of south-eastern Australia are naturally fire-prone. Little is known about the heterogeneity of prescribed fires in these forests. This paper reports on the spatial variability of repeated low intensity fires under two burning regimes, in both logged and unlogged forests, for a 17-year period from 1988 to 2005. Prescribed burns were extremely patchy at both the coupe and the plot scale for all treatments. Burns implemented soon after logging covered significantly greater areas than the standard prescribed burns. On the coupe scale, the extent of the burn was influenced by the average aspect of the coupe and the percent of the coupe burnt in the last fire. At the smaller plot scale, the extent of the burn was influenced by the neighbourhood burn patterns, the distance the plot was from the nearest drainage line, the time since the last fire and the percentage of the plot that was burnt in the last fire. Under operational conditions, sites on ridges are likely to burn approximately every 11 years and sites in gullies approximately every 20 years. Patchy burns achieved in this study will provide refuges for fire sensitive species and newly burnt areas for colonizing species and are therefore likely to have significantly lower ecological impacts than homogenous burns.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2007.06.004}, author = {Trent Penman and Kavanagh, Rodney P. and Binns, Doug L. and Melick, DR} } @article {BF-2364, title = {A physics-based approach to modelling grassland fires}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {1}, abstract = {Physics-based coupled fire{\textendash}atmosphere models are based on approximations to the governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, and the thermal degradation of solid fuel. They require significantly more computational resources than the most commonly used fire spread models, which are semi-empirical or empirical. However, there are a number of fire behaviour problems, of increasing relevance, that are outside the scope of empirical and semi-empirical models. Examples are wildland{\textendash}urban interface fires, assessing how well fuel treatments work to reduce the intensity of wildland fires, and investigating the mechanisms and conditions underlying blow-up fires and fire spread through heterogeneous fuels. These problems are not amenable to repeatable full-scale field studies. Suitably validated coupled atmosphere{\textendash}fire models are one way to address these problems. This paper describes the development of a three-dimensional, fully transient, physics-based computer simulation approach for modelling fire spread through surface fuels. Grassland fires were simulated and compared to findings from Australian experiments. Predictions of the head fire spread rate for a range of ambient wind speeds and ignition line-fire lengths compared favourably to experiments. In addition, two specific experimental cases were simulated in order to evaluate how well the model predicts the development of the entire fire perimeter.}, doi = {10.1071/WF06002}, author = {William Mell and Jenkins, Mary Ann and J.S. Gould and Cheney, NP} } @article {BF-1208, title = {Planning for more bushfires: implications of urban growth and climate change}, journal = {Queensland Planner}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, year = {2007}, pages = {23-26}, url = {http://www.tesag.jcu.edu.au/CDS/Pages/Bushfirereports_CRC/QLD\%20PLANNERcol.PDF}, author = {Cottrell, Alison and David King} } @article {BF-2367, title = {Preparing for natural hazards: the role of community trust}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {16}, year = {2007}, month = {2007}, pages = {370 - 379}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} This paper seeks to examine how perception of the relationship between people and sources of information influence hazard preparedness and how trust in civic emergency planning agencies responsible for risk communication influences preparedness decisions. It aims to hypothesize that: familiarity with and information about hazards predicts the relative importance of trust; and that levels of trust are influenced by community characteristics. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} A cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between trust and hazard preparedness was conducted. Hypotheses were tested using data on bushfire, volcanic and earthquake hazards. Data were analysed using multiple regression analyses. Findings {\textendash} The first hypothesis, that situational factors predict the relative importance of trust, was supported. Partial support was forthcoming for the second hypothesis. Collective problem solving and empowerment predicted levels of trust. Research limitations/implications {\textendash} The findings demonstrated the utility of this multi-level model for the analysis of risk communication and need to accommodate societal-level variables in future risk communication research. The source of information plays a role in risk communication that is independent of the information per se. Practical implications {\textendash} The relationship between people and civic agencies and the information provided must be accommodated in planning risk communication. The analysis provides an evidence-based framework for the development of risk communication strategies based on community engagement principles. Originality/value {\textendash} This is the first time this multi-level model has been applied to natural hazards and contributes to understanding the contingent nature of the risk communication process.}, doi = {10.1108/09653560710758323}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1010, title = {Project Vesta- Fire in dry eucalypt Forest: Fuel structure, fuel dynamics and fire behaviour}, volume = {218}, year = {2007}, month = {11/01/2007}, institution = {Ensis- CSIRO \& Department of Enivironment and Conservation, WA}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/22/pid/5993.htm}, author = {J.S. Gould and Lachlan W. McCaw and Cheney, NP and Ellis, Peter and Knight, IK and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {BF-2363, title = {PTR-MS analysis of reference and plant-emitted volatile organic compounds}, journal = {International Journal of Mass Spectrometry}, volume = {262}, year = {2007}, month = {05/2007}, pages = {203 - 210}, abstract = {Proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) was applied to the analysis of a series of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that emit from various plants. These include a group of alcohols (methanol, ethanol and butanol), carbonyl-containing compounds (acetic acid, acetone and benzaldehyde), isoprene, acetonitrile, tetrahydrofuran (THF), pyrazine, toluene and xylene and a series of terpenes (p-cymene, camphene, 2-carene, limonene, β-myrcene, α-pinene, β-pinene, γ-tepinene and terpinolene) and oxygen-containing terpenes (1,8-cineole and linalool). These mass spectral data were compared to an electron ionization (EI) database identifying that not all PTR-MS fragments were common to EI. PTR-MS studies of these reference compounds were utilized to identify VOCs emitted from Eucalyptus grandis leaf at a temperature range of 30{\textendash}100 {\textdegree}C. In addition to protonated molecules (M + H)+, abundant proton-bound dimers or trimers were detected for alcohols, acetone, acetonitrile and THF. Abundant fragment ions attributed to the loss of water from these proton-bound clusters were also observed. The stability of butyl (C4H9+ m/z 57) and acetyl (CH3CO+ m/z 43) fragment ions directed the proton-transfer reactions of butanol and acetic acid. Abundant (M + H)+ ions were detected for pyrazine, THF, toluene and xylene, as well as for all terpenes except those containing oxygen. For linalool and 1,8-cineole, the loss of water generated an abundant fragment ion at m/z 137. PTR-MS fragmentation patterns for terpenes were proposed for m/z 81 (C6H9+), 93 (C7H9+), 95 (C7H11+), 107 (C8H11+), 109 (C8H13+), 119 (C9H11+), 121 (C9H13+) and 137 (loss of water for oxygen-containing terpenes; C10H17+). The relative abundances of (M + H)+ and fragments for all terpenes (except linalool) were dependent on the drift tube voltage and the optimum voltage for detection of molecular ions was different for various terpenes.}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijms.2006.11.010}, author = {Maleknia, Simin D. and Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-1138, title = {A rain forest ant fauna in the tropical savanna landscape of northern Australia.}, journal = {Australian Journal of Zoology}, year = {2007}, author = {Andersen, A. N. and van Ingen, LT and Campos, RI} } @article {BF-1063, title = {Retrospective measures of fire intensity using epicormic sprouting and sapling frequency in the southern jarrah forest of southwestern Australia}, year = {2007}, month = {4/30/2007}, institution = {Bushfires CRC}, type = {Research Report}, author = {Burrows, R} } @article {BF-1172, title = {Sap flow in Australian subalpine forests \& woodlands suggests nocturnal transpiration contributes significantly to stand water balance and is inversely related to soil moisture.}, journal = {Plant, Cell \& Environment}, year = {2007}, note = {37 pgs}, author = {Buckley, TN and Turnbull, Tarryn L. and Sebastian Pfautsch and Adams, Mark A.} } @article {BF-2366, title = {Savanna fires increase rates and distances of seed dispersal by ants}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {151}, year = {2007}, month = {1/2007}, pages = {33 - 41}, abstract = {Myrmecochory (seed dispersal by ants) is a prominent dispersal mechanism in many environments, and can play a key role in local vegetation dynamics. Here we investigate its interaction with another key process in vegetation dynamics{\textemdash}fire. We examine ant dispersal of seeds immediately before and after experimental burning in an Australian tropical savanna, one of the world{\textquoteright}s most fire-prone ecosystems. Specifically, our study addressed the effects of burning on: (1) the composition of ants removing seeds, (2) number of seed removals, and (3) distance of seed dispersal. Fire led to higher rates of seed removal post-fire when compared with unburnt habitat, and markedly altered dispersal distance, with mean dispersal distance increasing more than twofold (from 1.6 to 3.8 m), and many distance dispersal events greater than the pre-fire maximum (7.55 m) being recorded. These changes were due primarily to longer foraging ranges of species of Iridomyrmex, most likely in response to the simplification of their foraging landscape. The significance of enhanced seed-removal rates and distance dispersal for seedling establishment is unclear because the benefits to plants in having their seeds dispersed by ants in northern Australia are poorly known. However, an enhanced removal rate would enhance any benefit of reduced predation by rodents. Similarly, the broader range of dispersal distances would appear to benefit plants in terms of reduced parent{\textendash}offspring conflict and sibling competition, and the location of favourable seedling microsites. Given the high frequency of fire in Australian tropical savannas, enhanced benefits of seed dispersal by ants would apply for much of the year.}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-006-0570-5}, author = {Parr, CL and Andersen, A. N. and Chastagnol, C and Duffaud, C} } @article {BF-1183, title = {The stomatal response to evaporative demand persists at night in Ricinus communis plants with high nocturnal conductance}, journal = {Plant, Cell and Environment}, number = {30}, year = {2007}, pages = {711-721}, author = {Barbour, MG and Buckley, TN} } @article {BF-2354, title = {The stomatal response to evaporative demand persists at night in Ricinus communis plants with high nocturnal conductance}, journal = {Plant, Cell \& Environment}, volume = {30}, year = {2007}, month = {06/2007}, pages = {711 - 721}, abstract = {Evidence is building that stomatal conductance to water vapour (gs) can be quite high in the dark in some species. However, it is unclear whether nocturnal opening reflects a mechanistic limitation (i.e. an inability to close at night) or an adaptive response (i.e. promoting water loss for reasons unrelated to carbon gain). Further, it is unclear if stomatal responses to leaf-air vapour pressure difference (D) persist in the dark. We investigated nocturnal stomatal behaviour in castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) by measuring gas exchange and stomatal responses to D in the light and in the dark. Results were compared among eight growth environments [two levels for each of three treatment variables: air saturation deficit (Da), light and water availability]. In most plants, stomata remained open and sensitive to D at night. gs was typically lower at night than in the day, whereas leaf osmotic pressure (Π) was higher at night. In well-watered plants grown at low Da, stomata were less sensitive to D in the dark than in the light, but the reverse was found for plants grown at high Da. Stomata of droughted plants were less sensitive to D in the dark than in the light regardless of growth Da. Drought also reduced gs and elevated Π in both the light and the dark, but had variable effects on stomatal sensitivity to D. These results are interpreted with the aid of models of stomatal conductance.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-3040.2007.01658.x}, author = {Barbour, MG and Buckley, TN} } @article {BF-1272, title = {Under Flames - Fire tests on timber decks}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cmmt-2007-049-under-flame-fire-tests-timber-decks.pdf}, author = {Bowditch, PA and Justin Leonard and Macindoe, L} } @article {BF-1212, title = {Understanding Communities Project Update}, year = {2007}, month = {11/08/2007}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/c1-bulletin-11-update-nov-07.pdf}, author = {Cottrell, Alison} } @proceedings {BF-1323, title = {Volunteer firefighting: A job for a woman?}, year = {2007}, address = {Adelaide}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian and Beatson, Ruth and Sean Cowlishaw} } @article {BF-1274, title = {Water tank behavior in Bushfires}, year = {2007}, institution = {BlueScope Steel Limited and the Bushfire CRC}, type = {A collaborative project }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/water-tank-behavior-bushfires_0.pdf}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard and White, N and Sargeant, AJ and Bicknell, A and Anderson, Alan} } @article {BF-1322, title = {Who{\textquoteright}s interested? The NSW Grain Belt community survey about volunteering with the NSW Rural Fire Service}, journal = {Australian Journal on Volunteering }, volume = {1}, number = {12}, year = {2007}, month = {5/16/2007}, pages = {14-25}, author = {Birch, Adrian and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1042, title = {Aerial Suppression Experiment, Cambridge Tasmania, 21-23 February 2005}, volume = {47}, year = {2006}, month = {6/30/2006}, institution = {Ensis- CSIRO }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/2005_suppression_experiment.pdf}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and G.J. McCarthy and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2428, title = {Applying Fire Spread Simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an International Seminar}, year = {2006}, abstract = {There is currently no spatial wildfi re spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fi re simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fi re spread applications for common use in both New Zealand and Australia. Developers and researchers from Canada, the United States, and Australia were invited to apply Prometheus, FARSITE, and other similar models to New Zealand and Australian wildfi res in grass, scrub, and forested fuel types. Although the lack of site-specifi c fuel models and weather data were a concern, coarse spatial and temporal data inputs proved adequate for modeling fi res within a reasonable margin of error. The choice of grass models proved less important than expected since spread rates were easily manipulated through moisture content values during calibration. The fi nal modeled perimeters are affected by several user inputs that are impossible to separate from model error. These various inputs exist to allow experienced users to approximate local environmental variability as closely as possible to obtain successful outputs. Rather than attempt to quantify direct comparisons, local users concluded it was more important to choose an application that provides an appropriate level of functionality, that is compatible with current data and fi re management systems, and that can be easily modifi ed to use unique and varied fi re spread equations. Prometheus and FARSITE performed very well and will be further investigated to understand how each might be customized for use with local fi re spread models. This paper describes the process and results of testing some existing fi re growth simulation models for use on fi res in New Zealand and Australia.}, url = {http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p041/rmrs_p041_201_212.pdf}, author = {Tonja Opperman and J.S. Gould and Mark Finney and Cordy Tymstra} } @article {BF-1043, title = {An assessment of drop patterns, penetration and persistence of water and foam form medium aerial platforms in grassland, open woodlands and pine forest in the ACT}, volume = {43}, year = {2006}, month = {6/30/2006}, institution = {ACT Rural Fire Service}, type = {Summer Vacation Project Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/air_sup_summer_student_report_06.pdf}, author = {Killey, P and Barrett, G} } @article {BF-1045, title = {Assessment of the application of compressed air foam technology for grassfire fighting}, volume = {31}, year = {2006}, month = {6/30/2006}, type = {Summer Vacation Project Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cafs_summer_student_report_06.pdf}, author = {Barrett, G and Killey, P} } @article {BF-1091, title = {The Australian Smoke Management Forecast System}, volume = {No 117}, year = {2006}, note = {54pp}, month = {5/18/2006}, url = {http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR117.pdf}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1234, title = {Battling ferocious flames: bushfires in the media}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {21}, year = {2006}, month = {2/01/2006}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/EMA/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/(A80860EC13A61F5BA8C1121176F6CC3C)~AJEM+Feb+Cohen.pdf/$file/AJEM+Feb+Cohen.pdf}, author = {Cohen, E and Hughes, P and White, PB} } @article {BF-1139, title = {Burning for biodiversity in the Top End}, journal = {Australasian Plant Conservation}, number = {14}, year = {2006}, pages = {3-May}, author = {Andersen, A. N. and Parr, CL and McKaige, BJ} } @inbook {BF-1198, title = {Bushfire Preparation, Response and Recovery in the Interface Zone}, booktitle = {Communities: Living with Hazards}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/Publications/JCUDEV_014975.html}, author = {Balcombe, LJ} } @article {BF-2330, title = {Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {21}, year = {2006}, month = {01/2006}, pages = {121 - 137}, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer \& wetter, and warmer \& drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS( DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively}, doi = {10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Robert E. Keane and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Flannigan, Mike D. and Davies, Ian D. and Li, Chao and Lenihan, James M. and Rupp, TS and Florent Mouillot} } @article {BF-1269, title = {Cone Calorimeter Tests for Fire Retarded Timber Assessment of Australian Decking Timbers}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cmit-2006-143_cone_calorimeter_tests_for_fire_retarded_timber_assessment_of_australian_decking_timbe.pdf}, author = {Macindoe, L and Bowditch, PA} } @article {BF-2337, title = {Decision Making Effectiveness in Wildfire Incident Management Teams}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, volume = {14}, year = {2006}, month = {03/2006}, pages = {27 - 37}, abstract = {During large scale wildfires, suppression activities are carried out under the direction of an Incident Management Team (IMT). The aim of the research was to increase understanding of decision processes potentially related to IMT effectiveness. An IMT comprises four major functions: Command, Operations, Planning, and Logistics. Four methodologies were used to study IMT processes: computer simulation experiments; analyses of wildfire reports; interviews with IMT members; and cognitive ethnographic studies of IMTs. Three processes were important determinants of IMT effectiveness: information management and cognitive overload; matching component function goals to overall goals; and team metacognition to detect and counter task-disruptive developments. These processes appear to be complex multi-person analogues of individual Incident Command processes identified previously. The findings have implications for issues such as: creating IMTs; training IMTs; managing IMTs; and providing decision support to IMTs.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1468-5973.2006.00478.x}, author = {Jim McLennan and Holgate, Alina M. and Omodei, Mary and Wearing, Alexander J.} } @article {BF-1142, title = {Do tropical savanna skink assemblages show a short-term response to low intensity fire?}, journal = {Wildlife Research}, number = {33}, year = {2006}, pages = {331-338}, author = {Nicholson, E and Lill, A and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-2332, title = {Effect of protective filters on fire fighter respiratory health during simulated bushfire smoke exposure}, journal = {American Journal of Industrial Medicine}, volume = {49}, year = {2006}, month = {09/2006}, pages = {740 - 750}, abstract = {Bushfire fighters are potentially subject to risks from bushfire smoke. Although many different protective masks and filters are available, it is not clear which is the most effective from a health and safety perspective. The effect of protective filters on the respiratory health of Western Australian urban career fire fighters under controlled simulated conditions is investigated.}, doi = {10.1002/ajim.20369}, author = {De Vos, Annemarie J.B.M. and Cook, Angus and Devine, Brian and Thompson, Philip J. and Weinstein, Philip} } @article {BF-1127, title = {The effects of fire on nitrogen loss from long unburnt fuels from a Eucalyptus pilularis forest.}, year = {2006}, month = {11/07/2006}, institution = {University of Melbourne}, type = {report for internship}, author = {Aerts, V} } @article {BF-1004, title = {Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observations.}, journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research}, number = {36}, year = {2006}, month = {11/30/2006}, pages = {3015-3028}, url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/nrc/cjfr/2006/00000036/00000011/art00030}, author = {Alexander, ME and Cruz, Miguel G.} } @conference {BF-1012, title = {Evaluation of a dynamic load transfer function using grassland curing data}, booktitle = {1st Fire Behaviour and Fuel Conference, }, year = {2006}, month = {27-30 March 2006}, publisher = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, organization = {International Association of Wildland Fire}, address = {Portland, Oregon }, url = {http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/25963}, author = {Andrews, PL and Stuart AJ Anderson and Wendy R. Anderson} } @article {BF-1032, title = {An examination of dewpoint biases introduced by different instrumentation}, volume = {4}, year = {2006}, month = {3/18/2006}, pages = {16-26}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchletter/reslett_04/reslett_04.pdf}, author = {Chris Lucas} } @article {BF-1288, title = {Firefighter health, safety, and wellbeing on the fireground}, volume = {4}, year = {2006}, institution = {Australasian Fire Authorities Council}, author = {Brad Aisbett and Nichols, David} } @article {BF-1008, title = {Fuel management- an integral part of fire management: Trans-Tasman Perspective}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire }, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/25934{\^A}~}, author = {J.S. Gould} } @proceedings {BF-2430, title = {Fuel Management-An Integral Part of Fire Management: Trans-Tasman Perspective}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Although Australia and New Zealand have quite different fire climates and fuels, the common understanding of fire behaviour underlies many facets of fire management in both countries. Fire management is the legal responsibility of various government land management agencies that manage public lands and individuals, local governments or corporations that manage private land. Volunteer bushfire/rural brigades have been formed throughout rural and peri-urban areas and are coordinated by rural and metropolitan fire authorities for specific activities such as fire suppression and fuel management. During the last two decades there has been an increasing interaction between Australia and New Zealand rural and land management fire agencies exchanging fire management practices, lesson’s learnt, common incident command systems and more recently, through partnership in their research programs. Both countries face a similar array of challenges in meeting their fire management objectives and the task is becoming increasingly difficult. As overarching services provided by governments, fire management has been subject to financial pressures, resulting in staff reductions and erosion of traditional levels of fire management resources. Resources are declining at a time when demands for protection by the general community are increasing. Concurrently, the demands for ecologically appropriate fire management practices and concerns about the long-term impacts of prescribed burning have led to the suggestions that, in some areas, fire is adversely affecting biodiversity and long-term sustainability of natural ecosystems. These issues are overlain by debate about how fire can affect climate change, greenhouse gas balance at the landscape and national level, and whether such changes are being exacerbated by managed and/or wildland fires.}, url = {http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/25934}, author = {J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-1265, title = {House Fire Spread, an investigation {\textendash} Gulgong NSW}, year = {2006}, institution = {CSIRO - Manufacturing and Infrastructure Technology, Fire Science and Technology Laboratory}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/_be55_gulgong_2006-206_final.pdf}, author = {Bowditch, PA} } @article {BF-1336, title = {Impacts of fire service volunteering on the families of volunteers: a literature review and research agenda}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/impact-volunteering-families.pdf}, author = {Sean Cowlishaw} } @article {BF-2344, title = {Implications for Community Health from Exposure to Bushfire Air Toxics}, journal = {Environmental Chemistry}, volume = {3}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {235}, abstract = {Bushfires can cause widespread air pollution through the emission of high levels of toxic air contaminants that affect the health of surrounding communities. This review of studies that have evaluated the health impacts of bushfires in North America, Australia and South-East Asia shows that the primary pollutant consistently exceeding air quality guidelines is particulate matter. Elevated levels of respirable particles are likely to be the major cause of the higher number of hospital visits and admissions for respiratory and/or cardiovascular treatment, increased mortality, and elevated respiratory-related symptoms that were observed in communities after major bushfire events. Morbidity effects were found to be mostly short-lived and reversible after exposure ceased, and were more prevalent among susceptible groups such as asthmatics, children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing respiratory and/or cardiac illnesses. Implications of such exposures to the Australian population will be discussed in relation to existing (urban) air quality measures and options for community response to bushfire events.}, doi = {10.1071/EN06008}, author = {Reisen, Fabienne and Brown, SK} } @article {BF-2328, title = {Lessons learnt from post-bushfire surveys at the urban interface in Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {234}, year = {2006}, month = {11/2006}, pages = {S139 - S139}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.184}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard and Leicester, R} } @article {BF-2351, title = {Linking Landscape Fires and Local Meteorology-A Short Review}, journal = {JSME International Journal Series B}, volume = {49}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {590 - 593}, abstract = {Fires burning on 18th January 2003 generated a series of cumulonimbus clouds that probably exacerbated a fire that reached suburban Canberra. Powerful whirlwinds were generated, at least one of which might have been a genuine tornado. We briefly review the development of plume theory over the last fifty years and a potential atmospheric stability index that may assist in the identification of conditions that are conducive to extreme fire behaviour in the environment. This information can assist in deciding the location of future monitoring stations.}, doi = {10.1299/jsmeb.49.590}, author = {Weber, Rodney and Dold, J} } @article {BF-1150, title = {Living in a land of fire}, year = {2006}, url = {www.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/integrative/fire/index}, author = {Whelan, Beth and Kanowski, K and Gill, A. Malcolm and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-1147, title = {Long-term fire exclusion and ant community structure in an Australian tropical savanna: congruence with vegetation succession.}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, number = {33}, year = {2006}, pages = {823-832}, author = {Andersen, A. N. and Hertog, T and Woinarski, JCZ} } @article {BF-1270, title = {Measuring Ember Attack on Timber Deck-Joist Connections using the Mass Loss Cone Calorimeter and Methenamine as the Ignition Source}, year = {2006}, institution = {CSIRO - Manufacturing and Infrastructure Technology, Fire Science and Technology Laboratory}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cmit-2006-190__measuring_ember_attack_on_timber_deck-joist_connections_using_the_mlcc_and_methenamin.pdf}, author = {Macindoe, L} } @article {BF-1090, title = {Modelling the King Island bushfire smoke}, number = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {9/20/2006}, pages = {93-104}, author = {Hess, GD and KJ Tory and Lee, S and Alan Wain and Cope, ME} } @article {BF-1031, title = {National daily gridded soil moisture deficit and drought factors for use in prediction of forest fire danger index in Australia}, volume = {117}, year = {2006}, month = {7/04/2006}, pages = {68pp}, institution = {BMRC}, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://134.178.63.141/amm/docs/2006/finkele_hres.pdf}, author = {Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and Beard, G and David Jones} } @article {BF-1018, title = {National gridded drought factors and comparison of two soil moisture deficit formulations used in the rediction of forest fire danger index in Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, number = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {10/19/2006}, pages = {183-197}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2006/finkele.pdf}, author = {Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and Beard, G and Jones, Trevor} } @article {BF-2334, title = {Nonlocal flow effects in bushfire spread rates}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {234}, year = {2006}, month = {11/2006}, pages = {S93 - S93}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.129}, author = {Dold, J and Zinoviev, A and Weber, Rodney} } @article {BF-1067, title = {Nonlocal flow effects in bushfirenext term spread rates}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jwd/articles/06-NFEiBSR.pdf}, author = {Dold, J and Zinoviev, A and Weber, Rodney} } @article {BF-1019, title = {Objective identification of wind change timing from single station observations Part 1: methodology and comparison with subjective timings.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {3/30/2007}, pages = {261-274}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/huang1.pdf}, author = {Huang, X and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1020, title = {Objective identification of wind change timing from single station observations Part 2: towards the concept of a wind change climatology.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {3/30/2007}, pages = {275-288}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/huang2.pdf}, author = {Huang, X and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-2339, title = {Patch Mosaic Burning for Biodiversity Conservation: a Critique of the Pyrodiversity Paradigm}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {20}, year = {2006}, month = {12/2006}, pages = {1610 - 1619}, abstract = {Fire management is increasingly focusing on introducing heterogeneity in burning patterns under the assumption that {\textquotedblleft}pyrodiversity begets biodiversity.{\textquotedblright} This concept has been formalized as patch mosaic burning (PMB), in which fire is manipulated to create a mosaic of patches representative of a range of fire histories to generate heterogeneity across space and time. Although PMB is an intuitively appealing concept, it has received little critical analysis. Thus we examined ecosystems where PMB has received the most attention and has been the most extensively implemented: tropical and subtropical savannas of Australia and Africa. We identified serious shortcomings of PMB: the ecological significance of different burning patterns remains unknown and details of desired fire mosaics remain unspecified. This has led to fire-management plans based on pyrodiversity rhetoric that lacks substance in terms of operational guidelines and capacity for meaningful evaluation. We also suggest that not all fire patterns are ecologically meaningful: this seems particularly true for the highly fire-prone savannas of Australia and South Africa. We argue that biodiversity-needs-pyrodiversity advocacy needs to be replaced with a more critical consideration of the levels of pyrodiversity needed for biodiversity and greater attention to operational guidelines for its implementation.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00492.x}, author = {Parr, CL and Andersen, A. N.} } @article {BF-2327, title = {Perceptions of Prescribed Burning in a Local Forest Community in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Environmental Management}, volume = {38}, year = {2006}, month = {11/2006}, pages = {867 - 878}, abstract = {The general perceptions of prescribed burning were elicited from forest users for an area that has been subject to this form of land management for at least 20 years. The largest group consisted of local residents living in and around the Wombat State Forest with two smaller groups of students from a nearby university campus and local professional land managers. A questionnaire was given to each participant in order to explore how the forest was used, to determine the level of knowledge of burning in the targeted forest and Victoria and the perception of the appearance, effectiveness of protection, and accessibility to the forest after prescribed burning. Generally all groups had similar responses with community members having stronger views on the effectiveness and practicalities of prescribed burning, whereas students were more neutral in their opinions. All participants claimed knowledge of prescribed burning activities within Victoria, but fewer had experience of planned fires in the Wombat State Forest. All groups agreed that areas that had not been recently burned had a better appearance than those that had, but this result may have included a range of value judgments. Land managers had a greater understanding of the ecological importance of season and timing of burning; however, some students and community members were equally knowledgeable. Prescribed burning did not impede access to the forest, nor did smoke from prescribed burns pose any great problem. The majority of the participants felt that the amount of prescribed burning done in the forest was adequate for engendering a feeling of protection to life and property, yet many were still suspicious of this management practice. These initial findings indicate several areas in which further research would be useful including the efficacy of education programs for community members and improved communication of burn plans by land managers.}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-005-0290-3}, author = {Bell, Tina and Oliveras, I} } @article {BF-2341, title = {Preparing for bushfires: understanding intentions}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {15}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {566 - 575}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} To examine the relationship between behavioural intentions and preparing for bushfire hazards and to test the hypothesis that intentions can inform how people reason about their relationship with environmental hazards. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} Survey data were collected from 280 residents in high bushfire risk areas and analysed using multiple regression analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a theoretical sample drawn from those who completed the survey. Data were analysed using grounded theory analysis strategies using the ATLAS.ti data analysis programme following the procedures for open, axial, and selective coding. Findings {\textendash} The analyses demonstrated that preparedness intentions reflect the outcomes of different ways of reasoning about their relationship with bushfire hazards and that {\textquotedblleft}preparing{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}not preparing{\textquotedblright} represent discrete processes. Each outcome was supported by different attitudes towards preparing and by different predictor variables. Research limitations/implications {\textendash} Preparing and not preparing for natural hazards should be conceptualised as separate processes and additional research into their origins and precursors is required. Practical implications {\textendash} Separate risk communication strategies are needed to counter reasons for {\textquotedblleft}not preparing{\textquotedblright} and facilitate {\textquotedblleft}preparing{\textquotedblright}. Strategies should accommodate the attitudes and beliefs that underpin these outcomes. To facilitate sustained preparedness, strategies should assist people to negotiate issues required to arrive at a decision to adopt protective measures. Originality/value {\textendash} Provides novel insights into the relationship between people and natural hazards. It identifies a need to re-think how risk communication strategies are developed and delivered.}, doi = {10.1108/09653560610685893}, author = {Paton, Douglas and Kelly , Gail and Burgelt , Petra T. and Doherty , Michael} } @article {BF-1232, title = {Promoting Household and Community Preparedness for Bushfires: A review of issues that inform the development and delivery of risk communication strategies}, year = {2006}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1247, title = {Recognising Reality: Questioning the automatic evacuation reflex in wildfires.}, year = {2006}, author = {John Handmer} } @article {BF-1268, title = {Report into the perfomance of steel power poles in bushfires}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/bluescope_sureline_report_-final.pdf}, author = {White, N and Justin Leonard and Sargeant, AJ} } @article {BF-1264, title = {Research and investigation into the performance of residential boundary fencing systems in bushfires}, year = {2006}, institution = {CSIRO Manufacturing \& Infrastructure Technology, Fire Science \& Technology Laboratory, Bushfire Research}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/_6baf_bluescope_fence_report_final.pdf}, author = {Justin Leonard and Blanchi, Raphaele and White, N and Bicknell, A and Sargeant, AJ and Reisen, Fabienne and Cheng, M} } @article {BF-2583, title = {Respiratory Health of Fire Fighters}, year = {2006}, month = {August 2006}, institution = {UWA}, abstract = {The basis for the research was to assess the effectiveness of protective filters, at the request of Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) of Western Australia. The FESA career fire fighters have - over the years - expressed their concern about the respiratory health effects from inhalation of bushfire smoke compounds, and the effectiveness of the protective filters on their masks. The protective filters issued to the FESA career fire fighters are the particulate filters, which are designed to be used against both mechanically and thermally generated particulates. There is evidence available that the presence of toxic compounds, e.g. formaldehyde, acrolein, and carbon monoxide, in bushfire smoke may pose occupational risks for fire fighters. In particular, acute and chronic lung function impairment after exposure to bushfire smoke in the United States and Europe has been documented in the literature. The study involved six controlled bushfire smoke exposure trials in a smoke chamber, followed by four validation trials in the field during prescribed burns. A total of 131 FESA career fire fighters participated in these study trials. Thirty-seven particulate filters, 50 particulate/organic vapour filters, and 44 particulate/organic vapour/formaldehyde filters were tested and compared. Respiratory health symptoms were assessed by a self-completed respiratory health questionnaire, FEV1 and SaO2 measurements. In addition, personal air sampling inside the masks was conducted with each of the different filter types tested. The results indicate that the particulate/organic vapour/formaldehyde filter provides clinically and statistically significant better protection for fire fighters{\textquoteright} airways while fighting bushfires. Further research is needed to determine the breakthrough times of the filters and the effectiveness of the filters over longer periods, such as a work shift or a bushfire season.}, author = {De Vos, Annemarie J.B.M. and Cook, Angus and Devine, Brian and Thompson, Philip J. and Weinstein, Philip} } @article {BF-1064, title = {Retrospective measures of fire intensity for forested landscapes in southwestern Australia}, year = {2006}, month = {3/31/2006}, institution = {CALM and University of Western Australia}, type = {Unpublished report}, author = {Flaherty, C} } @article {BF-1325, title = {A review of the IMT-related literature in fire and emergency management settings}, year = {2006}, author = {Owen, Christine and Dwyer, Ian and Douglas, Jan} } @article {BF-1149, title = {Savanna fires increase rate of myrmecochory and dispersal distance by ants.}, journal = {Oecologia}, number = {151}, year = {2006}, pages = {33-41}, author = {Parr, CL and Andersen, A. N. and Chastagnol, C and Duffaud, C} } @article {BF-2348, title = {Seasonality and fire severity in savanna landscapes of monsoonal northern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {15}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {541}, abstract = {Ten years of photo and associated data records from an extensive fire and vegetation effects monitoring programme established in two large north Australian National Parks were used to (1) develop a simple-to-use semiquantitative fire severity index based on observed fire impact on vegetation, particularly leaf-scorch height; and (2) explore relationships between seasonality and fire severity in different landform and vegetation types. Using a three-tiered fire severity scale, data for 719 fires recorded from 178 plots over the period 1995{\textendash}2004 indicate that the great majority of early dry season (pre-August) fires were of very low severity (fire-line intensities <<1000 kW m{\textendash}1), whereas fires later in the dry season were typically of substantially greater severity. Similar trends were evident for vegetation occupying all landform types. The utility and limitations of the fire severity index, and implications for ecologic, greenhouse inventory, and remote sensing applications are discussed.}, doi = {10.1071/WF05111}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {BF-1122, title = {Simplifying assessment of forest management practices for invertebrates: How effective are higher taxon and habitat surrogates for spiders following prescribed burning?}, journal = {Forest Ecology \& Management}, number = {231}, year = {2006}, pages = {123-154}, author = {Brennan, KEC and Ashby, L and Major, JD and Moir, ML and Koch, JM} } @article {BF-2335, title = {Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {15}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {527}, abstract = {Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).}, doi = {10.1071/WF05076}, author = {Karen J. King and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Chapman, Joanne and Pyrke, Adrian and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} } @conference {BF-1327, title = {The South Australian CFS survey of women volunteers}, booktitle = {2nd Women in Firefighting Conference}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.afac.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/6843/Women_volunteers_survey_SACFS.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1124, title = {Spiders, spinifex, rainfall, and fire: long-term changes in an arid spider assemblage.}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, number = {67}, year = {2006}, pages = {36-59}, author = {Langlands, P and Brennan, KEC and Pearce, Robyn} } @article {BF-1213, title = {The Sudanese Refugees and Fire Hazard Study}, year = {2006}, month = {4/28/2006}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/qfr2404_sudanese_reportweb.pdf}, author = {Glasgow, K} } @article {BF-1351, title = {Summary of reports from inquiries into bushfire incidents where multiple-agency interoperability has been implicated}, year = {2006}, type = {Contract Report}, url = {http://ecite.utas.edu.au/51535}, author = {Hickey, Greg} } @article {BF-1338, title = {Survey of ACT Rural Fire Service Women Volunteers}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/publications/citation/bf-1338}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian and Palmer, A} } @article {BF-1211, title = {Understanding Communities Living with Bushfire: The Thuringowa Bushfire Case Study}, year = {2006}, month = {11/28/2006}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/publications/downloads/c1-thuringowatechreport-10-06.pdf}, author = {Bushnell, S and Cottrell, Alison and Spillman, M and Lowe, D} } @article {BF-1231, title = {Warning Systems: Issues and considerations for warning}, year = {2006}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/paton-bushfire-warnings_wcover_1.pdf}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1017, title = {The Winchelsea Convergence - using radar and mesoscale NWP to diagnose cool change structure.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine}, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {5/18/2006}, pages = {47-58}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/mills.pdf}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Morgan, Gary} } @article {BF-1263, title = {Window and Glazing Exposure to Laboratory-Simulated Bushfires}, year = {2006}, type = {Confidential CMIT Doc. 2006{\^a}{\texteuro}{\textquotedblleft}205}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/__66d_window_and_glazing_2006-205.pdf}, author = {Bowditch, PA and Sargeant, AJ and Justin Leonard and Macindoe, L} } @article {BF-2350, title = {Woody fuel consumption experiments in an undisturbed forest}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {234}, year = {2006}, month = {11/2006}, pages = {S109 - S109}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.145}, author = {Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @proceedings {BF-2506, title = {Application of fire history records to contemporary management issues in south-west Australian forests}, year = {2005}, pages = {555-564}, publisher = {Millpress, Rotterdam}, address = {Augusta, Western Australia}, issn = {9789059660267 }, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and Hamilton, T and rumley, C} } @article {BF-1314, title = {Australian rural fire services{\textquoteright} recognition and service awards for volunteers}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {20}, number = {4}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {17-21}, abstract = {All Australian rural fire services have recognition and service award schemes for their volunteers. However, there are considerable differences among the eight agencies in the number of recognition opportunities available, the variety of awards available, and the minimum length of service required to qualify for an award. It is suggested that fire services review their recognition and award systems to maximise the effectiveness of these schemes in contributing to volunteer commitment and retention.}, url = {http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/rwpattach.nsf/VAP/\%283273BD3F76A7A5DEDAE36942A54D7D90\%29~AJEM_Vol20_Issue4.pdf/$file/AJEM_Vol20_Issue4.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan and Bertoldi, M} } @article {BF-1307, title = {Australia{\textquoteright}s women volunteer firefighters: A literature review and research agenda}, journal = {Australian Journal on Volunteering }, volume = {2}, number = {10}, year = {2005}, pages = {18-27}, url = {http://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/html/s02_article/default.asp?nav_top_id=61\&nav_cat_id=162}, author = {Beatson, Ruth and Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1129, title = {Boggy Plain: burning for biological and cultural conservation in northern Australia.}, year = {2005}, url = {http://nla.gov.au/anbd.bib-an000041184322}, author = {CSIRO} } @article {BF-2325, title = {Bushfires{\textemdash}How can we avoid the unavoidable?}, journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards}, volume = {6}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {93 - 99}, abstract = {It is often said that bushfires are a fact of life in Australia. While Australian communities will always be affected by the impacts of bushfires, there is an element of human involvement that makes at least some bushfires avoidable. In Australia more bushfires are started by deliberate lighting than are caused by lightning or other natural sources. This creates an element of criminality in relation to bushfires which includes the establishment of bushfire arson as a serious criminal offence. The author presents a motive-based typology of deliberately lit bushfires and argues that a greater understanding of the reasons why people light bushfires can help prevention, investigation and treatment of offenders.}, doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.001}, author = {Willis, M} } @article {BF-1069, title = {A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics.}, journal = {Ecological Modelling. }, volume = {179}, number = {1}, year = {2005}, month = {11/15/2004}, pages = {Mar-27}, author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Davies, Ian D. and Flannigan, Mike D. and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Rupp, TS} } @article {BF-1036, title = {Climate change impacts on fire-weather in southeast Australia}, year = {2005}, month = {12/22/2005}, pages = {88pp}, institution = {CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research }, type = {Client Report}, url = {http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf}, author = {Hennessey, K and Chris Lucas and Nicholls, N and Bathols, J and Suppiah, R and Ricketts, J} } @article {BF-2315, title = {Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers}, journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards}, volume = {6}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {109 - 114}, abstract = {The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.}, doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.002}, author = {Cottrell, Alison} } @article {BF-2321, title = {Constraint and Competition in Assemblages: A Cross-Continental and Modeling Approach for Ants}, journal = {The American Naturalist}, volume = {165}, year = {2005}, month = {04/2005}, pages = {481 - 494}, abstract = {The mechanisms leading to structure in local assemblages are controversial. On the one hand, assemblage structure is thought to be the outcome of local interactions determined by the properties of species and their responses to the local environment. Alternatively, this structure has been shown to be an emergent property of assemblages of identical individuals or of random sampling of a regional assemblage. In ants at baits, a combination of environmental stress and interspecific competition is widely held to lead to a unimodal relationship between the abundance of dominant ants and species richness. It is thought that in comparatively adverse environments, both abundance and richness are low. As habitats become more favorable, abundance increases until the abundance of dominant ants is so high that they exclude those that are subordinate and so depress richness. Here we demonstrate empirically that this relationship is remarkably similar across three continents. Using a null model approach, we then show that the ascending part of the relationship is largely constrained to take this form not simply as a consequence of stress but also as a result of the shape of abundance frequency distributions. While the form of the species-abundance frequency distribution can also produce the descending part of the relationship, interspecific competition might lead to it too. Scatter about the relationship, which is generally not discussed in the literature, may well be a consequence of resource availability and environmental patchiness. Our results draw attention to the significance of regional processes in structuring ant assemblages.}, doi = {10.1086/428292}, author = {Parr, CL and Sinclair, Brent~J. and Andersen, A. N. and Gaston, Kevin~J. and Chown, Steven~L.} } @article {BF-1014, title = {Determination of field sampling methods for the assessment of curing levels in grasslands}, year = {2005}, month = {11/15/2005}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.nzfoa.org.nz/index.php?/File_libraries_resources/Fire/Other_Fire_Research_Publications/Grassland_Curing/Determination_of_field_sampling_methods_for_the_assessment_of_curing_in_grasslands}, author = {Stuart AJ Anderson and Wendy R. Anderson and Hines, F and Fountain, A} } @article {BF-1337, title = {Estimates of the Likely Impact on TFS Operational Volunteer Fire Fighter Numbers of Introducing Mandatory Fitness Standards}, year = {2005}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/tfs_report_2005_1_agefitness-2.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian} } @article {BF-1260, title = {An Evaluation of the Street FireWise Community Education Program in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales}, year = {2005}, institution = {Bushfire CRC Project C7}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/sfw_evaluation_0.pdf}, author = {Gilbert, John} } @article {BF-1062, title = {Fire behaviour in 6 year old Eucalyptus Globulus plantation during conditions of extreme fire danger - a case study from south - western Australia.}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/bluegum-plantation-fire-23-march-2005.pdf}, author = {Lachlan W. McCaw and Bradley P Smith} } @article {BF-1143, title = {Fire frequency and biodiversity conservation in Australian tropical savannas: implications from the Kapalga fire experiment.}, journal = {Austral Ecology }, number = {30}, year = {2005}, pages = {155-167}, author = {Andersen, A. N. and Garry D. Cook and Corbett, Lk and Douglas, MM and Eager, RW and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Setterfield, SA and Williams, RJ and Woinarski, JCZ} } @proceedings {BF-2993, title = {Fitting Ecological Knowledge to Remotely Sensed Long-term Monitoring Data: A framework from semi-arid grasslands of the Pilbara region of north-western Australia}, year = {2005}, month = {August 2005}, publisher = {Ecological Society of America}, address = {USA, United States of America }, keywords = {long-term monitoring, model fitting, remotely sensed data, vegetation dynamics}, url = {http://abstracts.co.allenpress.com/pweb/esa2005/document/47881}, author = {Sadler, Rohan J. and Hazelton, Martin and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-1074, title = {Flammability of Australian Forests.}, journal = {Australian Forestry }, volume = {2}, number = {68}, year = {2005}, pages = {87-93}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Zylstra, Philip} } @article {BF-1243, title = {Framework for measuring the value of Australian Bureau of Meteorology fire weather services.Economic Value of Fire Weather Services.}, number = {112}, year = {2005}, month = {Oct-05}, pages = {37-66}, institution = {BMRC }, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR112.pdf plus on FKN}, author = {Gunasekera, D and Gonzalez-Caban, A and John Handmer and Graham A. Mills and Bannister, T} } @article {BF-1304, title = {Identifying the Causes of Unsafe Firefighting Decisions: A Human Factors Interview Protocol}, year = {2005}, author = {Omodei, Mary and Jim McLennan and Reynolds, C} } @article {BF-1262, title = {Investigation into the house loss in the ACT bushfires 2003}, year = {2005}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/bushfire_risk_at_the_rural_urban_interface_-_brisbane_2006.pdf}, author = {Justin Leonard} } @article {BF-1275, title = {Investigation into the stringency provided by the draft standard AS 3959}, volume = {Bushfire CRC Project D1}, year = {2005}, institution = {Bushfire CRC Project D1}, type = {Confidential Doc }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/__fef_d1i-stringencyas3959_final.pdf}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard} } @article {BF-1267, title = {Investigation of bushfire attack mechanisms resulting in house loss in the ACT bushfire 2003}, year = {2005}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/act_bushfire_crc_report.pdf}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard} } @article {BF-2318, title = {Landscape fires as social disasters: An overview of {\textquoteleft}the bushfire problem{\textquoteright}}, journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards}, volume = {6}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {65 - 80}, abstract = {The {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}bushfire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}forest-fire{\textquoteright} problem is exemplified by the destruction of homes and human lives by landscape fires raging out of control. The {\textquoteleft}problem{\textquoteright} involves a series of landscapes (e.g. wildland and suburb), a series of systems (e.g. biophysical system and environmental-effects system), and a series of time phases (e.g. planning phase). It is a multi-stakeholder, multi-variable, multi-scale problem. Land uses, like {\textquoteleft}farmland{\textquoteright}, imply a set of specific assets and, therefore, particular perceptions of losses. In all land-use designations, at any one point, fire-proneness may be seen as a function of exposure to ignition sources (embers, burning brands or flame radiation and flame contact) and the ease of ignition. The landscape-fire problem has multiple partial {\textquoteleft}solutions{\textquoteright}, not just one overall solution, and these involve social governance, land management (public and private), suppression capacity and personal preparedness. The problem needs to be addressed at multiple temporal and spatial scales in an integrated fashion for the outcome to be of maximal benefit. There will always be a residual risk of severe fire occurrence. Minimisation of residual risk requires effective land management, recurrent funding and the perpetual vigilance of all parties.}, doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.005}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm} } @conference {BF-1240, title = {Living with Bushfire risk: Residents accounts of their bushfire preparedness behaviour}, booktitle = {AFAC/Bushfire CRC Conference}, year = {2005}, address = {Auckland}, author = {Hughes, P and White, N} } @article {BF-1293, title = {Manual of methods and procedures for measuring personal exposures of bushfire firefighters to air toxics}, year = {2005}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/milestone_18-2-1_manual.pdf}, author = {Reisen, Fabienne and Brown, SK} } @proceedings {BF-2576, title = {Networked Fire Chief: A Research and Training Tool that Targets the Human Factors Causes of Unsafe Decision Making in Wildfires}, year = {2005}, month = {April 26-28, 2}, address = {Missoula, MT.}, abstract = {A case is presented for the use of computer simulated wildland firefighting scenarios (rather than only relying on field exercises, prescribed burns, and naturally-occurring incidents), for the targeted investigation of underlying causes of unsafe decisions in the context of wildland firefighting. We outline a set of requirements for a computer-based wildland firefighting simulation tool to be adequate for the systematic investigation of human factors underlying safety-compromising decisions. In introducing these requirements, we draw particular attention to: (a) the need to distinguish between the concepts of physical and psychological fidelity in simulation design; and (b) the relative importance of each type of fidelity for investigating human decision making. Networked Fire Chief (Omodei, Taranto and Wearing, 2003) is introduced as a proven research tool for meeting the identified requirements. Networked Fire Chief is a wildland fire fighting scenario generator specifically designed for research into psychological processes involved in decision making under conditions of complexity, time-constraint, risk, and uncertainty. In addition to use in human factors research, the program can also be used to generate training scenarios ranging from training in fire behaviour to training in large scale incident management skills.}, author = {Omodei, Mary and Elliott, Glenn and Matthew Walshe and Wearing, Alexander J.} } @article {BF-1053, title = {Overview of bushfire spread simulation systems.}, year = {2005}, institution = {BCRC}, type = {Literature review}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/uwa_simulators_overview.pdf}, author = {Johnston, P and George J. Milne and Klemitz, D} } @mastersthesis {BF-1085, title = {Patterns in the probability of burning with time-since-fire in the greater Sydney region.}, year = {2005}, school = {The Australian National University}, type = {HONOURS THESIS}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/cary_sres3008_compressed.pdf}, author = {Robert de Ligt} } @article {BF-2319, title = {A potential crisis in wildfire emergency response capability? Australia{\textquoteright}s volunteer firefighters}, journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards}, volume = {6}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {101 - 107}, abstract = {In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia{\textquoteright}s birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years{\textemdash}a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.}, doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.003}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian} } @proceedings {BF-2994, title = {Power-law Behaviour of Wildland Fires Reflects Fractality of Fire Weather?}, volume = {7}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, publisher = {European Geosciences Union}, url = {http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/06097/EGU05-J-06097.pdf} } @article {BF-2323, title = {Relationships among fire frequency, rainfall and vegetation patterns in the wet-dry tropics of northern Australia: an analysis based on NOAA-AVHRR data}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, volume = {14}, year = {2005}, month = {09/2005}, pages = {439 - 454}, abstract = {Aim To quantify the regional-scale spatio-temporal relationships among rainfall, vegetation and fire frequency in the Australian wet{\textendash}dry tropics (AWDT). Location Northern Australia: Cape York Peninsula, central Arnhem, central Kimberly, Einasleigh Uplands, Gulf Fall Uplands and northern Kimberley. Methods Monthly {\textquoteleft}fraction of photosynthetic active radiation absorbed by green vegetation{\textquoteright} (fAPAR) was decomposed into monthly evergreen (EG) and monthly raingreen (RG) components using time-series techniques applied to monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery. Fire affected areas were independently mapped at the same spatio-temporal resolution from AVHRR imagery. Weather station records were spatially interpolated to create monthly rainfall surfaces. Vegetation structural classes were derived from a digitized map of northern Australian vegetation communities (1 : 1,000,000). Generalized linear models were used to quantify relationships among the fAPAR, EG and RG signals, vegetation structure, rainfall and fire frequency, for the period November 1996{\textendash}December 2001. Results The fAPAR and EG signals are positively correlated with annual rainfall and canopy cover, notably: EGclosed forest > EGopen heathland > EGopen forest > EGwoodland > EGopen woodland > EGlow woodland > EGlow open woodland > EGopen grassland. Vegetation height and fAPAR are positively correlated, excluding the special case of open heathland. The RG signal is highest where intermediate annual rainfall and strong seasonality in rainfall coincide, and is associated with vegetation structure as follows: RGopen grassland > RGwoodland > RGopen forest > RGopen heathland > RGlow woodland > RGopen woodland > RGlow open woodland > RGclosed forest. Monthly RG tracks monthly rainfall. Annual proportion of area burnt (PB) is maximal where high RG coincides with low EG (open grassland, several woodland communities). PB is minimal in vegetation where both RG and EG are low (low open woodland); and in vegetation where EG is high (closed forest, open heathland). Conclusions The RG{\textendash}EG scheme successfully reflects digitally mapped tree and grass covers in relation to rainfall. RG{\textendash}EG patterns are strongly associated with fire frequency patterns. PB is maximal in areas of high RG, where high biomass production during the wet season supports abundant fine fuel during the dry season. PB is minimal in areas with high EG, where relatively moist fuel limits fire ignition; and in areas with low EG and RG, where a relative short supply of fuel limits fire spread.}, issn = {1466822X14668238}, doi = {10.1111/j.1466-822x.2005.00174.x}, author = {Spessa, Allan and McBeth, Bevan and Prentice, Colin} } @article {BF-1079, title = {Research priorities arising from the 2002/2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia. }, journal = {Australian Forestry }, volume = {68}, number = {2}, year = {2005}, pages = {104-111}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-1273, title = {Risk Model Basis development}, year = {2005}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/research/downloads/RISK MODEL-(C)-2005-152.pdf}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard and Leicester, R} } @proceedings {BF-2992, title = {Self-organization of Fire-prone Landscape Systems: Concepts, models and field evidence}, year = {2005}, month = {August 2005}, publisher = {Ecological Society of America}, address = {USA, United States of America }, keywords = {Australia, Self-organization, spatial patterns, wildland fire}, url = {http://abstracts.co.allenpress.com/pweb/esa2005/document/48216}, author = {Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline} } @article {BF-2316, title = {Is staying at home the safest option during bushfires? Historical evidence for an Australian approach*}, journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards}, volume = {6}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {81 - 91}, abstract = {Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons. As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort left angle bracketwww.bushfirecrc.comright-pointing angle bracket, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation. We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option{\textemdash}and the cause of most fatalities{\textemdash}is last minute evacuation.}, doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.006}, author = {John Handmer and Tibbits, Amalie} } @conference {BF-1210, title = {Understanding Communities Project: An Overview - August 2005}, booktitle = {AFAC and Bushfire CRC Conference, 6 \& 7 October 2005, }, year = {2005}, month = {8/01/2005}, publisher = {Bushfire CRC}, organization = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Auckland}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/c1_overview_bulletin.pdf}, author = {Cottrell, Alison and Spillman, M} } @article {BF-1238, title = {Bushfires in the media: A preliminary literature review}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/report-one.pdf}, author = {Cohen, E and Hughes, P and White, PB} } @article {BF-1305, title = {Development of Computer Simulated Wildfire Scenarios for the Experimental Investigation of Unsafe Decision Making}, year = {2004}, institution = {Bushfire CRC Enhancing Safety Project (D2.3)}, author = {Omodei, Mary and Elliott, Glenn and Matthew Walshe} } @article {BF-1073, title = {Fire research and policy priorities: insights from the 2003 national fire forum.}, number = {19}, year = {2004}, pages = {76-84}, author = {Dovers, Steve and Geoffrey J. Cary and Lindenmayer, David} } @article {BF-1209, title = {Fire Risk in Aboriginal peri-urban landscapes in North Australia. Case studies from western Cape York Peninsula}, year = {2004}, month = {9/03/2004}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/c1_bulletin_1.pdf}, author = {Monaghan, J} } @inbook {BF-1117, title = {Impacts of grazing and burning on terrestrial invertebrate assemblages in dry eucalypt forests of north-eastern New South Wales: implications for biodiversity conservation}, booktitle = {Conservation of Australia{\^a}{\texteuro}{\texttrademark}s Forest Fauna}, year = {2004}, pages = {845 - 859}, publisher = {Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales}, organization = {Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales}, edition = {second}, author = {York, Alan and Tarnowski, J}, editor = {Lunney, D} } @inbook {BF-1233, title = {The Media, Bushfires and Community Resilience}, booktitle = {Disaster Resilience: An integrated approach}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.ccthomas.com/details.cfm?P_ISBN13=9780398076634}, author = {White, PB and Hughes, P}, editor = {Paton, Douglas and David Johnston} } @inbook {BF-1065, title = {Modelling Heating Effects}, booktitle = {Natural Disturbances in Ecology}, year = {2004}, publisher = {Academic Press}, organization = {Academic Press}, author = {Mercer, GN and Weber, Rodney} } @article {BF-1051, title = {Modelling wildfire Dynamics via Interacting Automata}, journal = {Lecture Notes in Computer Science}, number = {3305}, year = {2004}, pages = {395-404}, url = {http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/ComplexSystems/Literature/ModellingWildfireDynamicsViaIA.pdf}, author = {Dunn, A and George J. Milne} } @article {BF-1334, title = {Occasional Report Number 2004:1 Exit Interviews and Surveys (EISs) for Volunteers}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/voluteerism_exit_interviews.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1239, title = {Promoting Household and Community Preparedness for bushfires: A review of issues that inform the developmnet and delivery of risk communication strategies.}, year = {2004}, institution = {BCRC/UTAS}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/risk-communication-summary_w-cover_1.pdf}, author = {Paton, Douglas} } @article {BF-1331, title = {Recruiting New Rural Fire Service Volunteers: Direct Expenditure Estimates}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/occasional_report3-replacement_estimates.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1330, title = {Recruitment and Retention of Volunteers: Rural Fire Services{\textquoteright} Issues and Initiatives}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/jim_mcl-_issues-initiatives_-_july_5.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1332, title = {Report Number 3: 2004 Profiles of Australia{\textquoteright}s Volunteer Firefighters (revised)}, year = {2004}, institution = {BCRC}, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/report_3-profile.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1329, title = {Volunteer Data Base Collection and Management for Strategic Planning and Policy Development: A Comparison Across Fire Services}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/jim_mcl-_data_management_-_report_2_2004.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan} } @article {BF-1333, title = {Volunteer Recruitment and Retention Issues: A Review of the Literature}, year = {2004}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/report_4_lit_reviewd3.pdf}, author = {Jim McLennan and Birch, Adrian and Acker, Felix and Beatson, Ruth and Jamieson, Robert} }