@article {bnh-6900, title = {Fire spread prediction across fuel types: annual report 2018-19}, number = {564}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The prediction of the rate of spread and intensity of bushfires is crucial for emergency and disaster management organisations for operational planning and the deployment of resources.\  Currently, simplified operational models are used since the prediction can be obtained on time scales commensurate with those required by emergency managers. Our aim is to refine these non-physics-based operational tools so that they can predict fire behaviour under a wide range of localised topographic and weather conditions, and also that they are able to account for a range of inhomogeneity, slope, and thermal instability within vegetation and over the terrain. Furthermore, a more physically-motivated firebrand model needs to be included in operational models to predict firebrand landing and the increased rate of fire spread (RoS).

In the last few years, we have numerically tested and established a reliable physics-based model that is based on basic fire dynamics theory and corresponding differential equations to simulate bushfire scenarios. We now embark upon utilization of our research as well as extending parametric study using the physics-based model. The following aspects have been the highlights of our endeavour:

Overall we have achieved our goal to obtain greater insight into bushfire physics and we are now utilising these insights to parameterise various phenomenon for operational models.

}, keywords = {fire spread, fuel types, prediction}, issn = {564}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} }