@article {bnh-7808, title = {Guidance note for replication of case studies - Black Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Oswald, Queensland floods and Toodyay bushfire}, number = {643}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There are two main considerations in the first step of our methodology:

It is preferable to identify the disaster-affected areas at finer units because this approach will yield more precise estimates for the disaster effects.

Generally speaking, SA2s [1] provide finer units for analysing the disasters that struck regional areas because LGAs are relatively large in regional areas. By contrast, when analysing disasters that hit metropolitan/urban areas, LGAs provide the finer geographic variation while also capturing the jurisdictional differences that might be relevant to disaster impacts.

Before embarking on each case study, we carried out detailed ArcGIS work using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. In identifying the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs, we first overlaid the disaster zones on statistical and administrative maps. In particular, we used disaster maps to apply location-based analysis, that is, to vectorise and transform our raster data to map coordinates by using the ESRI shapefile formats provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Here, it is important to achieve an almost perfect overlap between the raster and our target data in terms of the location, shape, and attributes of geographic features for different statistical units. In the following step, we determined the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs.

In determining the comparison groups, again it is important to consider the nature of the disaster-hit areas. For regional disasters, it is more appropriate to choose neighbouring areas that are not hit by the disaster but share similar economic, geographic and topographic characteristics with the disaster-hit areas. For disasters that strike metropolitan areas, comparability is likely to be obtained from other metropolitan areas. In Australia, typically, capital cities mimic each other in terms of their economic, demographic and geographic characteristics. For example, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Adelaide are located on river banks and have agriculture-based hinterlands.

Below we describe how we specifically determined disaster-hit areas for each case study.

[1] SA2s in Australia host 3,000{\textendash}25,000 people, with an average population of about 10,000 individuals.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, brisbane floods, case studies, cyclone oswald, economics, toodyay bushfire}, issn = {643}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6994, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on individual income}, number = {580}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In an era when the reality of climate change is creating an uncertain future, it is imperative to consider the lasting impact this will have on Australia, which is historically prone to natural disasters. The increased possibility of more frequent and intense natural disasters present a number of issues for Australians, ranging from the impact on vulnerable communities to broader economic consequences.

In an effort to tackle this global phenomenon at a local level, we must turn our attention towards not only the actions required to support our businesses and communities but also to ensuring Australia is ready to adapt and become more economically disaster resilient in an ever changing environment. The urgency and delicacy of the matter is exacerbated when we consider that the average annual total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017) and that fiscal constraints will be imposed on government disaster expenditure due to Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

When a natural disaster strikes, the damages incurred are readily assessable in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. While this information is vital to the economic dimension of disaster resilience policy, it provides little integrity to analysing the direct impact such disasters have on the Australian people and, more specifically, communities and workforces that are more vulnerable to disaster.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Black Saturday Bushfires on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study explores the impact of the Black Saturday bushfires (BSBs) on the income trajectory of individuals in the labour force and residents of the disaster-hit Statistical Area-2s (SA2s). These areas are depicted in red and orange in FIGURE 1.

The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were some of the worst bushfire conditions ever recorded globally; equivalent to 1500 of the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima going off (SMH, 2009). One hundred and seventy-three people died; over 2,100 houses and 3,500 structures were destroyed, and thousands more suffered damage (Parliament of Victoria, 2010). The total area destroyed was around 400,000 hectares (CFA, 2009). The toll was estimated to be $3.1 billion in tangible damages and $3.9 billion in intangible costs (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a bushfire on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities at very fine units.

The report makes a unique assessment of economic resilience at an individual level (measured through changes in the income stream), and explores the effects of disaster-induced economic shocks transmitted to individuals through income-earning channels. In turn, this provides a deeper understanding of how income costs of disasters are borne by different areas of the workforce and assists policymakers in understanding the socioeconomics of natural disasters to better formulate public policies.

In an effort to assist policymakers contextualise our assessment at a broader social and economic level, this report amplifies the socioeconomic and disaster-resilience profiles of the disaster hit SA2s.

The findings of the report provide a distinctive variation from research to date by focusing on the way disasters such as the BSB affect individuals within a particular workforce and community, as well as their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

The report attempts to pinpoint the income effects observed in the BSB by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of individuals living in the disaster-hit SA2s (treatment group) with those neighbouring SA2s that were not directly hit by the bushfires (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group that provides us with the income path that would have occurred for disaster-hit residents that were reported to be in the labour force in 2006, had the bushfires not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the bushfires. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD)[1], which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the bushfire{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}16.

Our framework was developed to capture income effects following the bushfires. Data limitations impede our ability to confirm some of the assumptions of our modelling approach, but we have taken a number of steps to alleviate the likely impact of these limitations on the reliability of our findings.

Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, our report is the first one utilizing three ABS Censuses to explore income effects of bushfires more comprehensively. Our findings offer compelling insights on how disasters like the BSB affect local economies, individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, disaster resilience, economic resilience, income}, issn = {580}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Yasin Onder} } @article {bnh-5565, title = {Ten years after the Black Saturday fires, what have we learnt from post-fire research?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Ten years ago, 173 people lost their lives and more than 2000 homes were destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires. The fires of 7 February 2009 led to a royal commission and significant changes to bushfire management throughout Australia. Research played an important role in the royal commission and subsequent changes. This paper reflects on what was learnt from research into human behaviour and community safety undertaken as part of the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. The research involved interviews with over 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households affected by the fires. This paper reviews findings from subsequent post-fire research to consider the extent to which there have been changes in findings related to community planning, preparedness and responses to bushfire. The review suggests that many of the issues encountered on Black Saturday{\textemdash}limited awareness of and preparedness for bushfire risk, a tendency for leaving (or evacuating) at the last moment and a commitment to defending, even under the highest levels of fire danger{\textemdash}persist, despite major changes to policy and public messaging.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, Emergency management, research}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research/}, author = {J Whittaker} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4459, title = {Disaster in Relation to Attachment, Loss, Grief and Recovery: The Marysville Experience.}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis is a study of the post-2009 Black Saturday bushfire community of Marysville. The central research question asks: {\textquoteleft}How did survivors of the Marysville Black Saturday bushfire experience attachment, loss and grief in the post-fire recovery process?{\textquoteright} This informs two specific sub-questions, which are: {\textquoteleft}What were the experiences of Marysville residents in the aftermath of the fire, particularly regarding their sense of attachment, loss and grief?{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}What can we understand about attachment, loss and grief in disaster recovery from their experiences?{\textquoteright}

To answer these questions the research includes my own autoethnographic story utilising the technique of evocative autoethnography to which is integrated the technique of analytical autoethnography, thereby providing a thorough theoretical base for qualitative research and data collection. In addition to the autoethnographic research, further phenomenological and ethnographic data collection and analysis consisted of 18 formal in-depth interviews, 16 semi-formal interviews and 49 informal interviews (a total of 83 interviews), which accounted for about a third of the Marysville population at that time.

The research also involved extensive literature and document collection and review. Heuristic and naturalistic analyses were used to interpret and make sense of the information. Data collection concluded in late 2013; however, analysis, interpretation and member checking continued throughout the project. Findings emerged as two main themes, replete with examples, or illustrations.\ The two themes are:

1. Attachment: the importance of post-disaster attachment behaviour in relation to people, possessions, pets, place and participation (the five Ps) particularly as related to topophilia and solastalgia.\ 

2. Disempowerment: the post-disaster effect upon individuals and the community when they effectively have the ability to make their own decisions removed from them at both micro and macro levels.

Of central importance in this study is the identification of a post-disaster phenomenon I have conceptualised and named as {\textquoteleft}Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma{\textquoteright} (PDAT). This is a new revelation that describes a disruption to the natural processing of early attachment-related human loss and grief responses, particularly regarding initial appraisal and searching behaviours. It results in further trauma which may delay and complicate grieving and recovery for individuals and community alike.

When combined, the findings related to post-disaster attachment behaviour, topophilia, disempowerment, solastalgia and Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma make for a powerful description and compelling explanation of what many Marysville bushfire survivors have experienced.

The research findings make their contribution to knowledge by discovering and explaining elements of individual and collective post-disaster experiences, particularly the role of attachment behaviour in recovery. The findings have implications for individual and collective resilience, recovery and mental health. They will benefit policy makers, therapists, government agencies and non-government organisations in the way they assist post-disaster individuals and communities in the future.

This work is important because perhaps the lessons learned and knowledge gained will benefit future disaster survivors worldwide so they may not have to experience much of what the people of Marysville have struggled with since Black Saturday, 2009.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, communities, emergency management., fire impact, fire severity}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162288/Barton.pdf}, author = {David Barton} } @article {BF-4282, title = {A comparison of the fire weather characteristics of the Melbourne dust storm (1983) and Black Saturday (2009): a high-resolution ACCESS case study}, journal = {20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {167-172}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {We present the results of high-resolution simulations of the fire weather over Melbourne during its notorious dust storm on 8 February 1983. The simulations were performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involved a sequence of nested model runs starting with a global model run initialised with an ERA-Interim reanalysis initial condition. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than those currently used operationally. The day of the dust storm saw the passage of a significant cool change across Victoria, with many similarities in the simulations to that of Black Saturday (7 February 2009), against which we compare it. Wind changes such as these two can have a significant (and dangerous) impact on the behaviour of bushfires in southeast Australia, and their prediction forms an important component of fire weather prediction in this part of the country. While the wind change on 8 February 1983 was accompanied by some fire activity, that activity was much less than the major fire activity which accompanied the significant wind change eight days later on Ash Wednesday (16 February 1983). Why the dust storm wind change was not associated with severe fires, while those on Ash Wednesday and Black Saturday were, is a challenging question. Catastrophic fires are quite rare, whereas significant fire weather events that could potentially lead to catastrophic fires (if the non-meteorological prerequisites were to fall into place) are much more common and their study can lead to further understanding of the fire events.}, keywords = {Ash Wednesday, Black Saturday, Fire weather, Melbourne{\textquoteright}s dust storm, numerical weather prediction}, url = {http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/fawcett.pdf}, author = {Robert Fawcett and Alan Wain and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory} }