@article {bnh-7417, title = {Climatology of wind changes and elevated fire danger over Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Wind changes are a critical factor in fire management, particularly on days of elevated fire danger, and have been shown to be a factor in many firefighter entrapments in Australia and the USA. While there have been numerous studies of frontal wind changes over southeastern Australia since the 1950s, a spatial climatology of wind change strength and frequency over Victoria has hitherto been limited by the relatively low number of observation sites that have both high temporal resolution observations and sufficient length of record. This study used a recently developed high spatial (4-km grid) and temporal (1 hour) resolution, 46-year, homogeneous gridded fire weather climatology data set to generate a climatology of wind change strength by season at each gridpoint across Victoria. The metric used to define a wind change is the vector difference between the wind speed and direction over each 1-hour interval, with the highest value occuring on each day being selected for spatial analysis of strength and frequency. The highest values of wind change strength are found along the crest of the Great Dividing Range (the Great Divide), with a peak in spring. Elsewhere, the highest values occur in summer, with the areas south of the Great Divide, west of Melbourne and in central Gippsland showing higher values than the remainder of the state. The strength of wind changes generally decreases north of the Great Divide, although it is stronger in the northwest of the state in spring rather than in autumn. Lowest summertime (and other seasons) values occur in the northeast of the state and in far-east Gippsland. Exploring the frequencies of days when the highest daily Forest Fire Danger Index and the highest daily wind change strength jointly exceed defined thresholds shows that the northwest of the state has the highest springtime frequencies, whereas the highest autumn frequencies occur west of Melbourne and south of the Great Divide. The highest numbers of joint events in summer (when the greatest frequencies also occur) extend from central Victoria west to the South Australian border, with a secondary maximum in central Gippsland. These analyses offer important information for fire weather forecasters and for fire practitioners when preparing for a fire season or managing a fire campaign (for example, for allocating resources or understanding risks).

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, climatology, extreme weather, fire danger, fire management, firefighter entrapment, Victoria, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19043}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES19043}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Sarah Harris and Brown, T and Alex Chen} } @article {bnh-6744, title = {East Coast Low extreme weather scenario}, number = {548}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fictional scenario developed for use at\ the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference, developed in\ partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology,\ Geoscience Australia and Risk Frontiers. This\ scenario should be read in conjunction with\ the report on the 12th Australasian Natural\ Hazards Management Conference, Cascading\ extreme weather beyond our experience: are\ we ready?, published by the Bushfire and\ Natural Hazards CRC.

This scenario has been developed for the 12th\ Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference.\ It is based on climate, environment and weather events\ that are plausible. The combination of events, locations,\ areas of impact and human behavior are not based on\ any real event.

As you see what unfolds during the scenario, we ask you\ to focus on the nature and scale of the events that are\ unfolding, and the connections between them. And to\ begin thinking {\textquoteleft}what could we do to reduce, minimise or\ avoid the short and long-term impacts?{\textquoteright}

The hypothetical event is based in New South Wales,\ but can, and should, be considered in the context of any\ equivalent location across Australia or New Zealand.\ 

The impacts capture a range of likely outcomes to\ illustrate the extent of the effects of the weather\ scenario, but do not attempt to catalogue all of the\ impacts and their extent.

}, keywords = {east coast low, extreme weather, Planning, scenario}, issn = {548}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-5620, title = {Analysis of design standards and applied loads on road structures under extreme events}, number = {480}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the fourth report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project B8, entitled {\textquoteleft}Enhancing the Resilience of Critical Road Infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards{\textquoteright}. The work presented here addresses milestone 3.2.2 {\textquotedblleft}Analysis of design standards completed{\textquotedblright} and 3.2.3 {\textquotedblleft}Draft report 4{\textendash} Loads applied on structures under extreme events (flood, earthquake, fire){\textquotedblright}, which are due on 30 December 2015. Thus, this draft report will be reviewed and refined through the input of the external stakeholders, in particular Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (DTMR), VicRoads, RMS (NSW) and the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC).
The following draft report presents an analysis of relevant design codes in regards to bridges, culverts and flood-ways design considerations under natural hazards (earthquake, flood and bushfire). Although effort has been made to include major design codes, the main focus of the practice code analysis has been Australian codes, major American codes and European codes. Section 5 also discusses the strengthening methods for reinforced concrete members under natural hazards.

}, keywords = {applied loads, engineering, extreme weather, resilience, structure}, issn = {480}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} }