@article {bnh-4208, title = {Pre-disaster multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation model: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {328}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on Australian economy, across sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, manufacturing, utilities, construction, retail trade, transport and health care. The economic impacts of natural disasters can often be overlooked in management planning as the effects are not always immediate. A substantial problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact of natural hazards, considering all the affected sections of the economy. This effort should take into account not only the primary impacts of natural disasters but also secondary impact due to economic loss.

The main objective of the overall research program is to estimate the sector-disaggregated economic effects of the QLD Floods 2010-11, the Black Saturday Bushfires 2009, and Cyclone Oswald 2013 to support decision-making in the design of post-disaster recovery interventions. The evidence so generated will provide policy makers with indications through which they can alleviate the potential negative effects of natural disasters at the sectoral level.

In the first phase of the BNHCRC (2014-2017), the project placed the microscope on Queensland Floods 2010-2011 at the individual level, with a preceding {\textquoteleft}introductory{\textquoteright} analysis of the nation-level effects of floods and bushfires on Gross State Product, unemployment and inflation in Australia. The year 2016-17 has witnessed major progress in terms of finalizing the case study on Queensland Floods 2010-11 as well as reporting the nation-level effects of floods and bushfires in a form that can be disseminated to a wider audience.

In the second phase of the BNHCRC (2017-2020), the project will additionally focus on Black Saturday Bushfires 2009 and Cyclone Oswald 2013 to present the impact of different types and scales of natural disasters on different sectors of the economy. This phase will see the investigation not only of individuals but also of business firms, to provide a full picture of the disaster impacts. It will also extend the Queensland Floods analysis to firms.

In both phases the research program utilises the rich Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census data as the main workhorse of the analysis. The project also employs solid experimental research design comparing the outcomes on affected individuals and firms with those of unaffected ones.

Taken together, this project aims to assist Australian Federal and State governments with identifying sector-specific economics effects of natural disasters both at individual and firm levels. It is expected that the findings of this project will act as a catalyst in designing post-disaster recovery interventions of Federal and State policymakers that will not only be customised to directly support individuals but also assist firms to ensure their survival and keep their workforce employed. Moreover, investigation of the vulnerability dimensions is expected to enhance our understanding of the socio-economics of natural disasters and help formulate public policies in a way that will tangibly minimise the disaster risks.

In 2016-2017, the project has achieved several outcomes in terms of end-user engagement. The research team has organised three workshops with end-users: one with the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), and two with the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) of the Attorney-General{\textquoteright}s Department (AGD). The main objective of the latter two was to discuss the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) in connection with the new evidence found on the 2010-11 Queensland Floods case study.

}, issn = {328}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} }