@article {bnh-8376, title = {Determining firebrand generation rate using physics-based modelling from experimental studies through inverse analysis}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, abstract = {

Firebrand spotting is a potential threat to people and infrastructure, which is difficult to predict and becomes more significant when the size of a fire and intensity increases. To conduct realistic physics-based modeling with firebrand transport, the firebrand generation data such as numbers, size, and shape of the firebrands are needed. Broadly, the firebrand generation depends on atmospheric conditions, wind velocity and vegetation species. However, there is no experimental study that has considered all these factors although they are available separately in some experimental studies. Moreover, the experimental studies have firebrand collection data, not generation data. In this study, we have conducted a series of physics-based simulations on a trial-and-error basis to reproduce the experimental collection data, which is called an inverse analysis. Once the generation data was determined from the simulation, we applied the interpolation technique to calibrate the effects of wind velocity, relative humidity, and vegetation species. First, we simulated Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree-burning and quantified firebrand generation against the tree burning experiment conducted at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Then, we applied the same technique to a prescribed forest fire experiment conducted in the Pinelands National Reserve (PNR) of New Jersey, the USA. The simulations were conducted with the experimental data of fuel load, humidity, temperature, and wind velocity to ensure that the field conditions are replicated in the experiments. The firebrand generation rate was found to be 3.22 pcs/MW/s (pcs-number of firebrands pieces) from the single tree burning and 4.18 pcs/MW/s in the forest fire model. This finding was complemented with the effects of wind, vegetation type, and fuel moisture content to quantify the firebrand generation rate.

}, keywords = {FDS, Firebrands, physics-based modeling, wildland fire, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5010006}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/1/6}, author = {Amila Wickramasinghe and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @conference {bnh-6406, title = {Simulations of radiation heat flux on a structure from a fire in an idealised shrubland }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildland-urban interface areas are growing rapidly. Building standards are required to ensure that the structures built in fire prone areas are resilient to fire. Australian Standard AS 3959 was developed to prescribe construction requirements for houses in bushfire prone areas. The model in AS 3959 is applied to estimate the Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) that is expected on a structure during the nominally worst-case bushfire scenario that the house can experience. Once the BAL is based on the fuel and terrain near the structure, and determines the construction requirements for the structure. AS 3959 is based upon a view-factor model of radiant heat flux, which estimates the level of heat flux expected at the structure.

}, keywords = {building standards, Fire, heat flux, structure, Wildland-urban interface}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-5650, title = {Where to prescribe burn: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning close to houses}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used in Australia as a tool to manage fire risk and protect assets. A key challenge is deciding how to arrange the burns to generate the highest benefits to society. Studies have shown that prescribed burning in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can reduce the risk of house loss due to wildfires, but the costs and benefits of different arrangements for prescribed burning treatments have rarely been estimated. In this study, we use three different models to explore the costs and benefits of modifying the spatial arrangement of prescribed burns on public land, using the south-west of Western Australia as a case study. We simulate two hypothetical scenarios: landscape treatments and WUI treatments. We evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of each scenario and compare the results from the three models, highlighting the management implications of each model. Results indicate that intensifying prescribed burning treatments in public land in the WUI achieves a greater reduction in damages compared with applying the majority of the treatments in rural areas. However, prescribed burning in the WUI is significantly more expensive and, despite additional benefits gained from this strategy, in most cases it is not the most economically efficient strategy.

}, keywords = {benefit-cost analysis, fire management, fuel treatment, house loss, Prescribed burning, preventative mitigation, risk, trade-off, wildland fire economics, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18192}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18192}, author = {Veronique Florec and Michael Burton and David J Pannell and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {2047, title = {Australian bushfire fatalities 1900-2008: exploring trends in relation to the {\textquoteleft}Prepare, stay and defend or leave early{\textquoteright} policy}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {13}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {185 - 194}, abstract = {

In many jurisdictions, including parts of the US, authorities often dictate mandatory evacuations of communities threatened by bushfire (wildfire). Prior to the 2009 [{\textquoteleft}]Black Saturday{\textquoteright} fires in Victoria, Australian fire authorities in all States advised residents to decide whether they would prepare to stay and defend homes or leave early. The clear intent of that policy was to avoid late evacuations and the risks to life that this could entail. This study re-examines evidence underpinning this policy using analyses of a database of bushfire fatalities. The database contains information on 552 civilian (non-fire fighter) fatalities obtained from print media archives at Risk Frontiers and forensic, witness and police statements contained within coronial inquest reports for all bushfire fatalities between 1901 and 2008. This data, compiled before the Black Saturday fires, clearly show the dangers of being caught outside during a bushfire and the gendered division of the circumstances of these deaths. While men have been most often killed outside while attempting to protect assets, most female and child fatalities occurred while sheltering in the house or attempting to flee. The database provides a benchmark against which the Black Saturday experience can be examined.

}, keywords = {Community safety, Fatalities, Policy, Wildfire, Wildland-urban interface}, isbn = {1462-9011}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.03.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1462901110000201}, author = {Katharine Haynes and John Handmer and John McAneney and Tibbits, Amalie and Coates, Lucinda} }