@article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6905, title = {Detecting the effects of prescribed burning using generalised additive modelling}, number = {566}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Data collected from 52 plots from sites in Victoria and New South Wales were used to test whether a simple modelling technique {\textendash} a generalised additive model (GAM) {\textendash} could be used in conjunction with satellite imagery to detect the effect of prescribed burning on the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was selected as the strongest indicator of a change in forest hydrology given the direct effect of removal of vegetation with fuel reduction burning. Variables included in the ET GAM were site details (location, elevation, aspect, slope), soil properties (total carbon and nitrogen), climate (short-term and long- term rainfall, maximum and minimum daily temperature, solar radiation) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a commonly used spectral product derived from satellite imagery. These variables were used to develop GAMs using sites in each state and combined together. Results from this modelling suggested a change in ET due to prescribed burning was more obvious for sites in Victoria than in NSW. Vegetation (EVI) and climatic variables (solar radiation, df5 and df95) were the best predictors for changes in ET due to prescribed burning activities. Soil (C:N) and terrain variables (slope, aspect, elevation) were not important factors for detecting change in ET. Limitations due to temporal and spatial differences in sampling unburnt and burnt plots and future potential for this method are discussed.

}, keywords = {additive modelling, fire effects, Prescribed burning}, issn = {566}, author = {Mengran Yu and David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7753, title = {Economic analysis of natural hazard mitigation using the Quick Economic Analysis Tool}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {48-55}, abstract = {

An effective way to reduce the impacts of natural hazards on communities is by mitigating the risks. However, mitigation requires time and resources, which are usually limited. To use resources effectively, planners and managers are best prepared when they know their options and which of these options provides the best value for money. When there is not enough information, or an analysis would take several months or years to complete, having access to quick economic analyses in weeks rather than months would be very useful. This paper describes a Quick Economic Analysis Tool, developed at the University of Western Australia, to conduct quick analyses. A case study is used of two prescribed burn annual rates and are compared with results of an in-depth analysis of the application of different prescribed burn annual rates over the long-term that took several years to complete. The results from the quick analysis, despite a few differences, were comparable to results from an in-depth analysis and provided enough information to determine the value for money that each prescribed burn annual rate generated. This study showed that the quick analysis tool would allow fire managers to identify options worthy of business cases and to capture the information needed to increase confidence in their decisions.

}, keywords = {economic analysis, economics, Natural hazards, Prescribed burning, risk mitigation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-economic-analysis-of-natural-hazard-mitigation-using-the-quick-economic-analysis-tool/}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5654, title = {Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {271}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, chapter = {148-157}, abstract = {

Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions.

}, keywords = {Burn window, Climate change, Fire weather, Global warming, Hazard reduction, Prescribed burning, prescribed fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192319301091}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Bruce Tran and Matthias M. Boer and Owen Price and Belinda Kenny and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5417, title = {Delivering effective savanna fire management for defined biodiversity conservation outcomes: an Arnhem Land case study}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Given the recent history of frequent and extensive late dry season wildfire in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone northern savannas, regional conservation-based fire management programs typically aim to mitigate wildfire through the use of strategic prescribed burning during the cooler early dry season. However, it remains unclear as to the extent such environmental management concerns are being addressed by these renewed fire management efforts. This study documents changes in fire regime in the western Arnhem Land region of northern Australia associated with the implementation of active fire management since 2006. Over a 12-year period, the regional fire regime has transitioned from late dry season, wildfire-dominated to being characterised by a majority of fires occurring as small early dry season prescribed burns. Although overall area burnt has not significantly decreased, most ecological threshold metrics have improved, with the exception of those describing the maintenance of longer-unburnt habitat. Challenges involved with defining, delivering, monitoring and evaluating heterogeneity targets are discussed.

}, keywords = {ecological thresholds, fire regimes, Prescribed burning}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18126}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18126}, author = {Jay Evans and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-5697, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {487}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2018-2019 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}. The project aims to provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the previous Annual Report in 2017-2018. The report focuses on the research outputs informing the development of the Prescribed Fire Atlas. The project has now delivered a rich, layered dataset capable of addressing nuanced questions about the quantitative risk reduction available through prescribed burning for multiple management values in varying landscapes. The project is now entering its final phase as we complete climate change and cost-effectiveness analyses and launch the Prescribed Burning Atlas in 2019/20. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide geographically based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at the heart of the project. Active involvement of end users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end users and the communities they serve.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, ecosystems, fire management, Prescribed burning}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5619, title = {Modelling emissions from prescribed burning using FULLCAM}, number = {479}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is a software tool developed by the Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy as a standard method for carbon accounting. It is primarily used as a means to report national\ greenhouse gas dynamics from the land sector due to anthropogenic activities. This\ study assessed the accuracy and usefulness of FullCAM in determining the mass of carbon (C) emissions produced from prescribed burning. FullCAM proved to be a simple and reasonably reliable method for estimating C emissions from prescribed burning activities and for tracking recovery of C pools related to forest ecosystems. In addition, C emissions from different prescribed burning scenarios and from wildfire can be easily compared. The FullCAM model can be used by land managers as a means to manage an important aspect of risk associated with planned burning. If land managers are required to perform C accounting activities in the future, the adoption of FullCAM will enable them to be compatible with the national standard of carbon accounting.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emissions, FullCAM, modelling, Prescribed burning}, issn = {479}, author = {Senani Karunaratne and Malcolm Possell and David Pepper and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5650, title = {Where to prescribe burn: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning close to houses}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used in Australia as a tool to manage fire risk and protect assets. A key challenge is deciding how to arrange the burns to generate the highest benefits to society. Studies have shown that prescribed burning in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can reduce the risk of house loss due to wildfires, but the costs and benefits of different arrangements for prescribed burning treatments have rarely been estimated. In this study, we use three different models to explore the costs and benefits of modifying the spatial arrangement of prescribed burns on public land, using the south-west of Western Australia as a case study. We simulate two hypothetical scenarios: landscape treatments and WUI treatments. We evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of each scenario and compare the results from the three models, highlighting the management implications of each model. Results indicate that intensifying prescribed burning treatments in public land in the WUI achieves a greater reduction in damages compared with applying the majority of the treatments in rural areas. However, prescribed burning in the WUI is significantly more expensive and, despite additional benefits gained from this strategy, in most cases it is not the most economically efficient strategy.

}, keywords = {benefit-cost analysis, fire management, fuel treatment, house loss, Prescribed burning, preventative mitigation, risk, trade-off, wildland fire economics, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18192}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18192}, author = {Veronique Florec and Michael Burton and David J Pannell and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {2046, title = {Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {260}, year = {2010}, month = {2010/10/15/}, pages = {1791 - 1797}, abstract = {Predicted changes to global climates are expected to affect natural fire regimes. Many studies suggest that the impact of these effects could be minimised by reducing fuel loads through prescribed burning. Fuel loads are dynamic and are affected by a range of factors including fire and climate. In this study, we use a 22-year dataset to examine the relative influence of climate and fire history on rates of litterfall and decomposition, and hence fuel loads, in a coastal Eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Litterfall and decomposition were both affected by temperature, recent rainfall and fire history variables. Over the study period prescribed burning immediately reduced fuel loads, with fuel loads reaching pre-burn levels within 3 years of a fire. Modelling fuel loads under predicted climate change scenarios for 2070 suggests that while fuel loads are reduced, the levels are not significantly lower than those recorded in the study. Based on these predictions it is unlikely that the role or value of prescribed burning in these forests will change under the scenarios tested in this study. }, keywords = {Accumulation, Climate change, Decomposition, Forest management, Prescribed burning}, isbn = {0378-1127}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6X-511H38D-1/2/2825befe9a608c7cb83a0a58406d25a8}, author = {Trent Penman and York, Alan} }